Good Morning Geneva_ENG_20140423

Transcription

TRADING · EQUITY ADVISORY
23 AVRIL 2014
Assets and companies are mentioned with a short-term outlook, and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of LO’s Research Department. The opinions expressed in
this document may not comply with LO Investment Policy.
MACRO
Overview (variation du S&P500 après la clôture européenne :-0.14%)
M&A is our best friend!
For those who feel that equity markets are too expensive or too dangerous, large company owners do not have the same viewpoint. Within a matter of days, tens of
billions of mergers and acquisitions have been announced: Barrick Gold/Newmont, Novartis’ restructuring of activities with GSK and Elly, Valeant/Allergan…
Added to this are McDonalds’ results which weren’t as bad, the good results of Yum Brand in China, Comcast and Netflix’s solid numbers, and – especially – the
pleasant surprise concerning the Gilead’s contribution of its Hepatitis C treatment. The NASDAQ therefore outperformed other U.S. indices – although this will not
prevent us from changing our selection of U.S. ETFs within our 2014 GTO.
For China, it is true that rising labour costs will change the country’s "business model", but the fact that China is increasing the quality and upmarket value of the
products it produces will pose huge problems to some Western countries. This is what the BCG dubs the "second wave". Indeed, Chinese groups (such as Qoros in
the automotive sector) will compete head to head with western products in their own markets. We must not forget that the minimum wage in China is EUR 350, while
it is over EUR 1000 in some European countries.
We often heard the word "automation" during our ‘China Tour’; robots will prove to be a real alternative to the masses of under-trained employees.
What’s more, the U.S. – with crude around USD 100, its cheap "Made in the USA" energy, and a persistently weak dollar - is pushing manufacturers to focus their
investment efforts locally: The announcement of an Apple factory being built in Arizona is but a symbol thereof. According to Euler Hermes, real wages in the U.S.
will exceed those of China by USD 6.9 in 2015, whereas it stood at USD 17.1 in 2006.
While in Italy, industrial orders fell sharply in February (-3.1 %), China’s industrial production came in at +8.8 % YOY, slightly below expectations, but a slight
increase compared to the month prior. This morning, the Flash Manufacturing PMI was in line with expectations at 48.3, but still below 50pts. We believe that the
lower RRR for rural banks, announced last week, is but a taster, and that the PBOC will step up to the plate to enable to country to reach the 7.5% in annual growth.
It could, however, wait for the Q2 PIB results to make a move. Upon the announcement of these latest economic figures, the Yuan posted its lowest level since 2012;
it’s going to become complicated for the Yen…
We would like to underscore that Chinese Prime Minister Li stated that the control of energy consumption and polluting emissions would be included in regional
officials’ evaluations. This is crucial because – during our China Trip – our Chinese peers explained to us that all the members of the Chinese Politburo started
among the lower ranks, and that they are being evaluated annually. It takes a spotless track record to have any hopes of reaching the upper echelons of the state.
Any negative assessment in a given year blocks any interesting progression through the ranks. For your information, only two years ago, GDP growth was the sole
rating criterion – which explains a lot! Moreover, China is apparently in negotiations with the U.S. group Westinghouse for the acquisition of eight nuclear reactors;
the number of reactors currently stands at 20, with 28 under construction.
Mexico is an indirect beneficiary of rising wages in China. Indeed, we have always stressed the U.S.’ commitment to becoming an influential partner in the LATAM
region. That being said, Mexico has the advantage of an adjusted productivity rate (according to the BCG) that is lower than China’s – and this, since early 2012.
Proximity to the U.S. also reduces transport costs towards Uncle Sam to almost zero.
We are increasingly sceptical about Japan’s ability to extricate itself from its situation – despite ‘abenomics’. The trade deficit reached a record USD 8.16 billion in
2013, and could reach USD 13.75 billion in 2014. The country’s current situation is far from Shinzo Abe’s promises of one year ago.
Consumption inflated Q1 results, in anticipation of the VAT hike in April. However, as we had repeatedly mentioned, imports of natural gas, oil and coal soared
following the closure of nuclear power plants. In addition, the relocation of Japanese production sites to China, Vietnam and Indonesia, effectively turns these sites’
production imports... Added to this is the ageing of the active workforce (and the reduction of the population in absolute terms) that in turn reduce the driving forces
behind the production of consumer goods in favour of the production of services. Above all, though, we must not forget the negotiation of a gigantic free trade
agreement uniting twelve countries in Asia Pacific, which is being blocked by the reluctance of the Japanese executive.
After successfully organizing – in The Hague on March 25 - a first glacial handshake between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President
Park Geunhye who had both been sulking for months, U.S. President Barack Obama requested that the Japanese PM step aside in private with him for just a
moment. The U.S. President wanted to secure, face-to-face, the commitment of his Japanese counterpart in the negotiations surrounding the Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP), a giant free-trade agreement upon which both Washington and Tokyo are placing an important portion of their hopes of future growth. The
exchange, however, lasted a mere ten minutes, and will be concluded without any progress in the talks that have been held for years between twelve of the region’s
nations, who – for months now – have been hindered by the stumbling block of the degree of openness of a number of Japanese agricultural markets. Just like in
Europe, which is at a standstill in negotiations on a few points of the trans-Atlantic free-trade agreement, the U.S. will very quickly make it clear to Japan that the
INFORMATION IMPORTANTE – UNIQUEMENT POUR INVESTISSEURS PROFESSIONNELS : Merci de vous référer aux informations à la fin du document.
Publication du département Trading Equity Advisory de Lombard Odier
Contact : [email protected]
BANQUE LOMBARD ODIER & CIE SA ∙ GOOD MORNING GENEVA ∙ 23 APRIL 2014
PAGE 1/9
LOMBARD ODIER
latter is no longer the preferred partner in the area... The United States needs this trade agreement to economically realize their redeployment strategy on Asia, and
to establish itself as an important partner with China, the largest commercial player in the region, which is in fact not associated with the project.
In Australia, CPI came in at +0.5 % versus the +0.7 % expected, making it possible for the central bank to keep rates low for a good while.
But let’s come back to Europe: For us, the agreement in Geneva last weekend between Russia and the West isn’t worth its salt as long as the situation is – for all
intents and purposes – already well out of control (apparently).
Indeed, to get you thinking, you must know that:
- A senior Russian finance minister said yesterday that the country could fall into recession in Q2. Anton Siluanov (Finance Minister) said that growth in 2014 could
be nil.
- Putin is said to study a way to exit Visa and Mastercard from Russia. The combined amount of transaction in 2013 reached EUR 530 bn. Facing international
sanctions, Putin is trying to relaunch an old credit card project led by Sberkart and VTBKart. A new regulatin would then force Russian banks to use only that new
network.
The Geneva Accord on the Ukraine crisis was basically stillborn. Five days after the unexpected signing of an agreement between Kiev, Washington, Moscow and
Brussels aiming to diffuse tensions in eastern Ukraine, there is not the slightest sign of a diffusion of tensions or disarmament on the field. The separatist insurgency
raging in a dozen cities has not abandoned any of the public buildings it has occupied for two weeks now – and has even seized new ones in Kramatorsk. Its militias
say that they have no intention of abandoning positions or indeed of handing over any weapons whatsoever, and reportedly fired yesterday on a Ukrainian AN- 30
military aircraft. They announced their intention to hold a referendum on May 11 to cut ties with Kiev – a referendum reminiscent of that which formalized the
annexation of Crimea to Russia in early March, but impossible to organize in a region where insurgents fully control two medium-sized cities. It would probably not
even be recognized by Moscow’s allies (yesterday, Belarus launched barely-veiled accusations against Russian expansionism.
We must not forget that the U.S. holds enormous strategic oil reserves and that any announcement of the sale of any part of these reserves in the current market
equilibrium could make prices drop by tens of dollars, making Putin’s state budget implode.
In Lisbon yesterday, the Troika - the European Central Bank, European Commission and International Monetary Fund – opened its final bailout review of Portugal,
which is set to follow the Irish example, becoming the second euro zone country to successfully come out from under its creditors’ tutelage.
Italian banks continue to want to lighten their "credit risk" load; two months after referring to the creation of an ad-hoc «bad bank" group with the U.S. fund KKR,
UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo moved forward by announcing, on Tuesday, that they had signed a "letter of intent " with the consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal, known
for its handling of the liquidation of Lehman Brothers in 2009. Founded by two former members of Citibank and Coopers & Lybrand, the company is specialized in
the management of high-risk assets. In this case, the objective is to develop an innovative solution to relieve the two major Italian banks of the management of their
"restructured loans" (approximately EUR 11 billion), which represent but a very minor portion of the EUR 162 billion in bad banking sector loans.
Single stocks
North America
American indices
US sectors
Top 5 performers
Last
1 day change
YTD Change
16,514
0.4%
-0.4%
Healthcare
1.0%
Energy
-0.2%
S&P500
1,880
0.4%
1.7%
Cons. Discretionaries
0.8%
Cons. Staples
-0.1%
Nasdaq 100
3,589
0.8%
-0.1%
Financials
0.7%
Industrials
0.0%
TSX
14,556
0.4%
6.9%
Technology
0.4%
Utilities
0.0%
Bovespa
51,977
-0.3%
0.9%
Materials
0.3%
Telecom
0.2%
Dow Jones
Bottom 5 performers
ALLERGAN closed up 15.3% after Valeant Pharma confirmed its cash and stock offer to acquire all of AGN’s outstanding shares in accordance with media reports
on Monday. This hostile offer includes a fixed cash payment of USD 48.30 and an exchange ratio of 0.83 VRX shares for each AGN share.
Mac DONALD’s reported Q1 EPS of USD 1.21, vs. consensus of USD 1.24, mainly explained by a higher tax rate (USD 0.03 impact ).
UNITED TECH : reported strong Q1’14, with the low end of FY target upgraded. Q1’14 EPS reached USD 1.32 vs 1.27 consensus..
GILEAD after hours, reported revenues of USD 5 bn, up +97% (27% beat), while EPS rose 208% at USD 1.48 (63% beat).!
AMGEN after hours, fell on revenues up 7% at USD 4.5 bn (5% miss) and EPS down -5% at USD 1.87, -5% (4% miss)
AT&T reported Q1 EPS of USD 0.70, in-line with consensus. Revenues also matched expectations of USD 32.4 bn. FY sales guidance of +4% compares with prior
+2-3%. It reaffirmed EPS growth in the mid-single digit range.
Asia
Asian sectors
PAGE 2/9
LOMBARD ODIER
Asian indices
Nikkei
SHCOMP
HSI
KOSPI
SENSEX
Last
1 day change
YTD Change
14,480
0.7%
-11.1%
2,062
-0.4%
22,540
Top 5 performers
Bottom 5 performers
Energy
0.6%
Materials
-0.7%
-2.6%
Technology
0.2%
Healthcare
-0.3%
-0.9%
-3.3%
Industrials
0.1%
Financials
-0.3%
2,001
-0.1%
-0.5%
Cons. Staples
-0.1%
Utilities
-0.3%
22,851
0.4%
7.9%
Cons. Discretionaries
-0.1%
Telecom
-0.2%
NANYA TECH (2408) : reported strong result. 40% gross margin was a surprise, driven by 21% QoQ cost down from increased 30nm production mix and yield
improvement. Pricing was also better.
CHINA MOBILE(941): Operating revenue was up 7.8% YoY at RMB 154.8 bn, in-line with expectations. While EBITDA and net profit declined by 5.9% and 9.5%,
these were both above forecasts.
SAMSUNG HEAVY IND (010140 KS) may see over KRW1trn losses from negative margin orders especially in offshore plant division, Samsung Group reportedly
said after internal assessment.
DONGFENG Motor (489 HK) reported strong April 1-18 sales.. Nissan +9.5% YoY. PSA +38.2% YoY.
HUANENG POWER (902 HK) reported 1Q14 EPS at RMB0.26, up 44% YoY and beating consensus estimate of RMB 0.18.
Europe
European indices
European sectors
Top 5 performers
Last
1 day change
YTD Change
Bottom 5 performers
EuroStoxx50
3,200
1.4%
2.9%
Healthcare
2.9%
Basic Resources
0.3%
DAX
9,600
2.0%
0.5%
Chemicals
2.3%
Food & Beverages
0.3%
CAC40
4,484
1.2%
4.4%
Auto
2.2%
Oil & Gas
0.8%
FTSE100
6,682
0.9%
-1.0%
Telecom
1.7%
Personal Goods
0.9%
FTSE MIB
21,935
1.5%
15.6%
Retail
1.5%
Media
0.9%
BARCLAYS has confirmed plans to exit most of its commodities businesses and focus on electronic trading in the markets it stays in. (WSJ).
VW / Scania : SEB Fonder, Handelsbanken Fonder accept Volkswagen’s SEK200/shr bid for Scania. (Dagens Industri)
NUMERICABLE is to sell a record EUR 8.5bn of junk bonds on Wednesday to raise funds to complete its acquisition of SFR. Demand for the offering was said to be
strong enough for Numericable to increase the size of the sale from €6bn, as banks started to market the securities in Europe and North America. (FT)
ZODIAC published half-year revenues in-line with consensus and EPS slightly above. The full-year outlook is reiterated with a stronger H2 expected. The strong
balance sheet should enable acquisitions .
Principales valeurs reportant leurs résultats
Europe
Company Name
Company Ticker
Time
Estimate
Event Description
Koninklijke Philips NV
PHIA NA
07:00
0.204
Q1 2014 Earnings Release
Pentair Ltd
PNR US
Bef-mkt
0.728
Schindler Holding AG
SCHP VX
SOITEC
SOI FP
-1.427
Y 2014 Earnings Release
Source: Bloomberg
PAGE 3/9
LOMBARD ODIER
North America
Company Name
Company Ticker
Time
Estimate
Harley-Davidson Inc
Event Description
HOG US
Bef-mkt
1.088
McDonald's Corp
MCD US
Bef-mkt
1.238
MGIC Investment Corp
MTG US
Bef-mkt
0.11
United Technologies Corp
UTX US
Bef-mkt
1.273
AK Steel Holding Corp
AKS US
Bef-mkt
-0.428
Lockheed Martin Corp
LMT US
Bef-mkt
2.54
Arch Coal Inc
ACI US
Bef-mkt
-0.43
Prologis Inc
PLD US
Bef-mkt
0.421
Regions Financial Corp
RF US
Bef-mkt
0.195
Medidata Solutions Inc
MDSO US
Bef-mkt
0.161
Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The
BK US
12:30
0.539
Xerox Corp
XRX US
13:15
0.238
Illinois Tool Works Inc
ITW US
14:00
0.979
Cree Inc
CREE US
22:00
0.383
Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc
CBST US
22:00
0.042
Gilead Sciences Inc
GILD US
22:05
0.864
CR Bard Inc
BCR US
Aft-mkt
1.862
International Game Technology
IGT US
Aft-mkt
0.209
AT&T Inc
T US
Aft-mkt
0.696
Amgen Inc
AMGN US
Aft-mkt
1.931
Skyworks Solutions Inc
SWKS US
Aft-mkt
0.59
Covanta Holding Corp
CVA US
Aft-mkt
-0.146
Yum! Brands Inc
YUM US
Aft-mkt
0.837
Illumina Inc
ILMN US
Aft-mkt
0.442
Juniper Networks Inc
JNPR US
Aft-mkt
0.29
VMware Inc
VMW US
Aft-mkt
0.794
iRobot Corp
IRBT US
Aft-mkt
0.157
Discover Financial Services
DFS US
Aft-mkt
1.257
Xoom Corp
XOOM US
Aft-mkt
-0.04
Interpublic Group of Cos Inc/The
IPG US
-0.08
Omnicom Group Inc
OMC US
0.789
Travelers Cos Inc/The
TRV US
2.155
RadioShack Corp
RSH US
-0.49
Comcast Corp
CMCSA US
0.644
Simon Property Group Inc
SPG US
2.242
Allegheny Technologies Inc
ATI US
-0.07
Intuitive Surgical Inc
ISRG US
3.316
Wynn Resorts Ltd
WYNN US
2.063
Source: Bloomberg
Les rendez-vous économiques
Key Economic Numbers
PAGE 4/9
LOMBARD ODIER
Date Time
Event
Survey
Actual
Prior
04/22/2014 02:00
AU
Conf. Board Leading Index MoM
Feb
--
--
0.20%
04/22/2014 07:00
JN
Leading Index CI
Feb F
--
--
108.5
04/22/2014 07:00
JN
Coincident Index
Feb F
--
--
113.4
04/22/2014 11:00
EC
Construction Output MoM
Feb
--
--
1.50%
04/22/2014 11:00
EC
Construction Output YoY
Feb
--
--
8.80%
04/22/2014 14:30
CA
Wholesale Trade Sales MoM
Feb
0.70%
--
0.80%
04/22/2014 15:00
US
FHFA House Price Index MoM
Feb
--
--
0.50%
04/22/2014 15:00
MX
Unemployment Rate NSA
Mar
4.58%
--
4.65%
04/22/2014 15:00
MX
Unemployment Rate SA
Mar
4.68%
--
4.73%
04/22/2014 16:00
MX
International Reserves Weekly
Apr 18
--
--
$183617M
04/22/2014 16:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufact. Index
Apr
--
--
-7
04/22/2014 16:00
US
Existing Home Sales
Mar
4.55M
--
4.60M
04/22/2014 16:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
Mar
-1.10%
--
-0.40%
04/22/2014 16:00
EC
Consumer Confidence
Apr A
-9.3
--
-9.3
04/22/2014 20:00
BZ
Trade Balance Weekly
Apr 20
--
--
$522M
04/22/2014 21:00
AR
Economic Activity Index MoM
Feb
--
--
-0.40%
04/22/2014 21:00
AR
Economic Activity Index YoY
Feb
--
--
1.20%
04/22/2014 21:00
AR
Trade Balance
Mar
$289M
--
$44M
04/22/2014
AR
Consumer Confidence Index
Apr
--
--
36.21
04/22/2014
MX
Banamex Survey of Economists
Source: Bloomberg
Key Economic Events
Date Time
Event
04/22/2014 16:30
CA
Canada Finance Minister Oliver Speaks at Halifax Chamber
04/22/2014 17:45
US
Former Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks at Economic Club
04/22/2014 20:30
EC
EU's Van Rompuy Meets U.K.'s Cameron in London
Source: Bloomberg
Le présent document est fourni à titre d’information uniquement et ne saurait constituer une offre ou une recommandation d’achat ou de vente d’un quelconque titre.
Les informations et analyses sont basées sur des sources externes que nous estimons fiable à l’heure de la publication. Cependant l’ensemble des entités du
Groupe Lombard Odier décline toute responsabilité quant à leur actualité, exactitude ou exhaustivité. Il appartient à chaque investisseur de se forger sa propre
opinion à l’égard de tout titre ou instrument financier mentionnés dans ce document. Les actifs et les sociétés mentionnés le sont pour un horizon court terme ne
reflète pas l’avis du département de la Recherche Lombard Odier.
PAGE 5/9
INFORMATION IMPORTANTE – UNIQUEMENT POUR INVESTISSEURS PROFESSIONNELS
Le présent document a été préparé par la salle des marchés de la Banque Lombard Odier & Cie SA (ci-après "Lombard Odier") et est destiné aux investisseurs professionnels,
notamment les banques, les négociants en valeurs mobilières, les sociétés de gestion de fonds, les autres intermédiaires financiers réglementés ou autorisés, les compagnies
d'assurance, les fonds de pension et autres investisseurs institutionnels. Il n’est pas destiné à être distribué, publié ou utilisé dans une juridiction où une telle distribution, publication ou
utilisation serait interdite, et ne s’adresse pas aux personnes ou entités auxquelles il serait illégal d’adresser un tel document. Ni ce document ni aucune copie de ce dernier ne peuvent
être envoyés, emmenés ou distribués aux Etats-Unis ou remis à une US-Person.
Le présent document n’a pas été préparé par le département de Recherche de Lombard Odier. Par conséquent, il n’est pas soumis aux Directives de l’Association suisse des banquiers
sur l’analyse financière ou à tout autre exigence légale visant à garantir l’indépendance de l’analyse financière. Toute information contenue dans ce document ne constitue pas et ne doit
pas être considérée comme une analyse financière pour les fins de l'Association suisse des banquiers ou de tout autre organisme de régulation. Par conséquent, ce document n'est
soumis à aucune restriction relative à la diffusion de l’analyse financière. En outre, il est dûment souligné que les opinions exprimées dans le présent document peuvent différer des
opinions exprimées par d'autres département de Lombard Odier, y compris son département de Recherche.
Le présent document est fourni à titre d’information uniquement et ne saurait constituer une offre ou une recommandation d’achat ou de vente d’un quelconque titre. Il reflète les opinions
de Lombard Odier à la date de sa publication. Ces opinions ne prennent pas en compte la situation, les objectifs ou les besoins spécifiques de chaque investisseur. Aucune garantie
n’est donnée qu’un investissement soit approprié ou convienne aux circonstances individuelles ni qu’un investissement ou une stratégie constituent une recommandation personnalisée
pour un investisseur. Il appartient à chaque investisseur de se forger sa propre opinion à l’égard de tout titre ou instrument financier mentionnés dans le présent document. Avant
d’effectuer une quelconque transaction, il est conseillé à l’investisseur de vérifier minutieusement si elle est adaptée à sa situation personnelle et, si nécessaire, d’obtenir un avis
professionnel indépendant quant aux risques et aux conséquences juridiques, réglementaires, fiscales, comptables ainsi qu’en matière de crédit.
Les informations contenues dans le présent document sont basées sur des sources considérées comme fiables. Toutefois, Lombard Odier ne garantit ni l’actualité, ni l’exactitude, ni
l’exhaustivité desdites informations et décline toute responsabilité quant aux pertes ou dommages susceptibles de résulter de leur utilisation. Toutes les informations, opinions et
indications de prix peuvent être modifiées sans préavis. Les performances passées n’offrent aucune garantie quant aux résultats courants ou futurs et il se peut que l’investisseur
récupère un montant inférieur à celui initialement investi.
Les investissements mentionnés dans ce document peuvent comporter des risques qu’il est difficile d’évaluer et d’intégrer dans une évaluation des investissements. En général, les
produits tels que les actions, les obligations, les prêts de titres, les devises et les instruments du marché monétaire recèlent des risques plus élevés dans le cas de dérivés, de produits
structurés et de produits de private equity; ils s’adressent uniquement à des investisseurs à même d’en comprendre et d’en assumer les risques. Sur demande, Lombard Odier se tient à
la disposition des investisseurs pour leur fournir des informations plus détaillées sur les risques associés à des instruments donnés. La valeur de tout investissement dans une monnaie
autre que la monnaie de base d’un portefeuille est exposée au risque de change. Ces taux peuvent varier et affecter défavorablement la valeur de l’investissement quand ce dernier est
réalisé et converti dans la monnaie de base de l’investisseur. La liquidité d’un investissement dépend de l’offre et de la demande. Certains produits peuvent ne pas disposer d’un marché
secondaire bien établi ou s’avérer difficiles à valoriser dans des conditions de marché extrêmes, ce qui peut se traduire par une volatilité de leur cours et rendre difficile la détermination
d’un prix pour la vente de l’actif.
Le présent document a été publié en Suisse par la Banque Lombard Odier & Cie SA, une banque et un négociant en valeurs mobilières soumis à la réglementation et à la surveillance
de l’Autorité suisse de surveillance des marchés financiers (FINMA).
Le présent document ne peut être reproduit (en totalité ou en partie), transmis, modifié ou utilisé à des fins publiques ou commerciales sans l’autorisation écrite et préalable de Lombard
Odier.
© 2014 Banque Lombard Odier & Cie SA – Tous droits réservés
INFORMATION IMPORTANTE – UNIQUEMENT POUR INVESTISSEURS PROFESSIONNELS : TRA-EQUITY ADV-CH/02.2014/00/10/F
BANQUE LOMBARD ODIER & CIE SA∙ GOOD MORNING GENEVA ∙ 23 APRIL 2014
PAGE 6/9

Good Morning Geneva_ENG_20140423

Transcription

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