Zone euro: le retour de l`inflation? Les emprunts

Nr. 9
N° 34
Redaktionsschluss
Clôture de la rédaction:
23.08.2016 06.03.2012
Indices
Matières premières
Dernier
Dernier
% 1 semaine
% dep 1.1.
2015
SMI
8200.6
-0.18%
-7.00%
-1.84%
Pétrole (WTI)
46.97
-0.53%
9.56%
-30.47%
SPI
8925.7
-0.15%
-1.85%
2.68%
Or (Gold Spot)
1343.1
-1.02%
26.16%
-10.77%
SMIM
1965.2
-0.32%
3.13%
8.82%
S&P 500
% 1 semaine % dep 1.1.
2015
Devises
2182.6
-0.34%
6.79%
-0.82%
Dow Jones Ind.
18529.4
-0.57%
6.34%
-0.73%
Dernier
% 1 semaine
% dep 1.1.
2015
Nasdaq Comp.
5244.6
-0.33%
4.74%
5.73%
EUR / USD
1.1328
0.43%
4.29%
-10.20%
DJ Euro Stoxx 50
2990.3
-0.86%
-8.48%
3.85%
USD / CHF
0.9622
0.04%
-4.15%
0.80%
10593.3
-0.78%
-1.39%
9.56%
EUR / CHF
1.0900
0.49%
0.16%
-9.50%
CAC 40
4421.9
-0.86%
-4.64%
8.53%
FTSE 100
6868.3
-0.37%
10.03%
-4.93%
16497.4
-0.60%
-13.33%
9.07%
3m libor
24.08.2015
à 10 ans
24.08.2015
DAX
Nikkei
Taux d'intérêts
Eurobond Index Citi
235.9
0.04%
5.95%
1.07%
CHF
-0.74
-0.73
-0.50
-0.18
Hedge Fund Index
145.0
-0.40%
-0.19%
-
EUR
0.06
0.19
-0.08
0.56
1732.6
0.10%
4.20%
-2.74%
USD
0.82
0.33
1.56
MSCI World
2.04
Source: Bloomberg
Au cœur de cette semaine
Zone euro: le retour de l'inflation?

En juillet, l'inflation en zone euro a progressé de 0,2%, un plus haut
sur huit mois. Les principaux facteurs sont les hausses des prix de
l'alcool et du tabac.
 L'inflation sous-jacente (hors énergie et alimentation) s'est inscrite à
+0,9% durant le mois considéré.
 Conforme aux prévisions, l'évolution des prix à la consommation
devrait mettre du baume au cœur de la Banque centrale européenne
qui lutte depuis plus de deux ans contre la faiblesse des prix dans la
zone euro.
 De grandes disparités ont été observées dans l'évolution des
prix à la consommation en zone euro. Ainsi, le taux d'inflation le
plus élevé a été enregistré en Belgique (+2%), alors que la
Slovaquie (-0,9%) doit faire face à des tendances déflationnistes.
(cal)
Les emprunts espagnols font mieux que
leurs pairs italiens

Les emprunts d'Etat espagnols et italiens se sont vite remis du choc
du Brexit. Une semaine après le résultat des urnes, les cours
s'envolaient déjà.
 Les rendements à dix ans des emprunts d'Etat espagnols et italiens
sont ainsi tombés à des planchers historiques. Récemment, les
rendements espagnols sont même passés pour la première fois
sous la barre des 1%.
 Les rendements espagnols ont dépassé ceux servis en Italie, ce qui
reflète les risques politiques prévalant dans les deux pays.
 Selon nous, le principal facteur d'incertitude durant ces
prochains mois réside dans le référendum sur la réforme du
Sénat italien. A l'approche des votations, les marchés
pourraient se montrer volatils, tout comme lors du Brexit. (muc)
The views of Bank CIC (Switzerland) Ltd. expressed herein are subjective and are based on information that is in the public domain and on third party sources. No representation or warranty is made
by Bank CIC (Switzerland) Ltd. that the information provided or recommendations made are complete, accurate or up-to-date. Recommendations may not be applicable to specific investors or groups
of investors and may not under any circumstances be used as a basis for making investment decisions. Investors are advised to consult a professional advisor before making any investment decision.
Nothing in the information, facts or recommendations contained herein shall be deemed to create any advisory relationship between Bank CIC (Switzerland) Ltd. and users of this website.
Meyer Burger Technology: à moitié plein
ou à moitié vide?
Résultats S1/2016: le temps presse!
 CA de MBTN au S1/16 de CHF 218 mio. (+75%), EBITDA de CHF
6,2 mio. (-32,7 mio.), bénéfice en CHF -25,6 mio.
 Entrées de commandes CHF 268 mio. (+20%), ordres en carnet
CHF 307 mio. (déc. 2015: CHF 258 mio.), ratio book-to-bill 1.23.
 Des progrès doivent être réalisés, charges d'intérêt au S1/2016 de
CHF 7 mio. vs EBIT CHF -21 mio.
 MBTN est sous pression avec CHF 260 mio. à refinancer ces
24 prochains mois.
 Prévisions 2016: atteindre/dépasser le break-even au niveau EBITDA
sur l'ensemble de 2016.
 Le sort de MBTN est entre les mains des créanciers. Uniquement
pour les investisseurs enclins au risque (action & obligations).
(jub)
Actions CH: hausse de la marge EBITDA,
un gage de qualité

Lors de la sélection des actions, les investisseurs peuvent aussi se
baser sur l'évolution de la marge EBITDA qui mesure le rapport entre
le chiffre d'affaires et le bénéfice avant intérêts, impôts et
amortissements.
 Une progression continue de la marge sur tout le cycle commercial
est le signe d'une bonne qualité opérationnelle.
 En termes de progression du CA et des marges, les valeurs
standard et secondaires suisses qui se distinguent sont
Actelion, EMS-Chemie, Givaudan, Lindt & Sprüngli, Lonza et
Sika. (robol)
Nestlé – opportunité de vente technique à
court terme



Le modèle stochastique de la Banque CIC (Suisse), qui mesure les
variations de prix sur une base quantitative, a récemment identifié
une opportunité de vendre (en rouge) sur Nestlé à CHF 78.
A l'horizon de 3 à 4 semaines, les signaux observés au cours des
365 derniers jours ont généré une performance d'environ +8-9%, ce
qui correspondrait à un potentiel de cours de l'ordre de CHF 72.
Notre modèle de signaux à moyen/long terme indique par contre une
tendance actuellement positive qui laisse supposer un potentiel de
hausse en 2016.
 Etant donné que les signaux à moyen/long terme annoncent
une possible hausse, nous recommandons de ne vendre une
éventuelle position que sur une brève période de 3 à 4
semaines. (mge)
The views of Bank CIC (Switzerland) Ltd. expressed herein are subjective and are based on information that is in the public domain and on third party sources. No representation or warranty is made by
Bank CIC (Switzerland) Ltd. that the information provided or recommendations made are complete, accurate or up-to-date. Recommendations may not be applicable to specific investors or groups of
investors and may not under any circumstances be used as a basis for making investment decisions. Investors are advised to consult a professional advisor before making any investment decision.
Nothing in the information, facts or recommendations contained herein shall be deemed to create any advisory relationship between Bank CIC (Switzerland) Ltd. and users of this website.
Next macro data releases
Date
Event
23.08.2016
Trade Balance
24.08.2016
25.05.2016
Time
Domicile
Estimated
Actual
08:00
--
3.55b
Exports Real MoM
08:00
--
-3.30%
Imports Real MoM
08:00
--
-4.00%
Markit France Manufacturing PMI
09:00
48.8
48.6
Markit France Services PMI
09:00
50.5
50.5
Markit France Composite PMI
09:00
50.4
50.1
Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI
Markit Germany Services PMI
Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI
09:30
09:30
09:30
53.6
54.4
55.1
53.8
54.4
55.3
Markit US Manufacturing PMI
Richmond Fed Manufact. Index
New Home Sales
15:45
16:00
16:00
52.6
6
580k
52.9
10
592k
Germany: Private Consumption QoQ
08:00
0.20%
0.40%
Germany: Government Spending QoQ
08:00
0.50%
0.50%
Germany: Capital Investment QoQ
Germany: Construction Investment QoQ
08:00
08:00
-1.30%
-2.80%
1.80%
2.30%
Germany: Domestic Demand QoQ
08:00
-0.10%
0.80%
Germany: Exports QoQ
08:00
0.70%
1.00%
Germany: Imports QoQ
08:00
-0.30%
1.40%
Germany: GDP SA QoQ
08:00
0.40%
0.40%
Germany: GDP WDA YoY
Germany: GDP NSA YoY
08:00
08:00
1.80%
3.10%
1.80%
3.10%
MBA Mortgage Applications
13:00
--
-4.00%
House Price Purchase Index QoQ
15:00
--
1.30%
FHFA House Price Index MoM
15:00
0.30%
0.20%
Existing Home Sales
16:00
5.50m
5.57m
France: Total Jobseekers
18:00
3505.0k
3525.7k
France: Jobseekers Net Change
18:00
-20.5
5.4
France: Business Confidence
08:45
102
102
France: Manufacturing Confidence
08:45
103
103
France: Production Outlook Indicator
08:45
--
3
France: Own-Company Production Outlook
08:45
--
3
France: Survey of Industrial Investment
08:45
Industrial Output WDA YoY
09:15
--
1.00%
Industry & Construction Output WDA YoY
09:15
--
1.00%
Germany: IFO Business Climate
10:00
108.5
108.3
Germany: IFO Current Assessment
10:00
114.9
114.7
The views of Bank CIC (Switzerland) Ltd. expressed herein are subjective and are based on information that is in the public domain and on third party sources. No representation or warranty is made by
Bank CIC (Switzerland) Ltd. that the information provided or recommendations made are complete, accurate or up-to-date. Recommendations may not be applicable to specific investors or groups of
investors and may not under any circumstances be used as a basis for making investment decisions. Investors are advised to consult a professional advisor before making any investment decision. Nothing
in the information, facts or recommendations contained herein shall be deemed to create any advisory relationship between Bank CIC (Switzerland) Ltd. and users of this website.
in the information, facts or recommendations contained herein shall be deemed to create any advisory relationship between Bank CIC (Switzerland) Ltd. and users of this website.
The views of Bank CIC (Switzerland) Ltd. expressed herein are subjective and are based on information that is in the public domain and on third party sources. No representation or warranty is made by
Bank CIC (Switzerland) Ltd. that the information provided or recommendations made are complete, accurate or up-to-date. Recommendations may not be applicable to specific investors or groups of
investors and may not under any circumstances be used as a basis for making investment decisions. Investors are advised to consult a professional advisor before making any investment decision. Nothing
in the information, facts or recommendations contained herein shall be deemed to create any advisory relationship between Bank CIC (Switzerland) Ltd. and users of this website.
16:00
13.11.2015 U. of Mich. Expectations
US
--
82.1
Estimated
Actual
Next macro data releases
Time
Date
Event
25.05.2016
Germany: IFO Expectations
10:00
102.4
102.2
Durable Goods Orders
14:30
3.50%
-3.90%
Initial Jobless Claims
14:30
265k
262k
Durables Ex Transportation
14:30
0.50%
-0.40%
Continuing Claims
14:30
2155k
2175k
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
14:30
0.20%
0.40%
Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
14:30
0.30%
-0.20%
Markit US Services PMI
15:45
51.8
51.4
Markit US Composite PMI
15:45
--
51.8
Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
17:00
-2
-6
Germany: GfK Consumer Confidence
08:00
10
10
France: Consumer Confidence
08:45
96
96
France: GDP YoY
08:45
1.40%
1.40%
France: GDP QoQ
08:45
0.00%
0.00%
Advance Goods Trade Balance
14:30
-$63.0b
-$63.3b
Wholesale Inventories MoM
14:30
0.10%
0.30%
GDP Annualized QoQ
14:30
1.10%
1.20%
Personal Consumption
14:30
4.20%
4.20%
GDP Price Index
14:30
2.20%
2.20%
Core PCE QoQ
14:30
1.70%
1.70%
U. of Mich. Sentiment
16:00
90.7
90.4
U. of Mich. Current Conditions
16:00
--
106.1
U. of Mich. Expectations
16:00
--
80.3
U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation
16:00
--
2.50%
U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
16:00
--
2.60%
Total Sight Deposits
10:00
--
514.1b
Domestic Sight Deposits
10:00
--
436.1b
Personal Income
14:30
0.40%
0.20%
Personal Spending
14:30
0.30%
0.40%
Real Personal Spending
14:30
0.20%
0.30%
PCE Deflator YoY
14:30
--
0.90%
PCE Core YoY
14:30
1.50%
1.60%
Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
16:30
-3
-1.3
-3.90%
-4.60%
--
2.70%
26.08.2016
29.08.2016
Domicile
Germany: Import Price Index YoY
Germany: Retail Sales YoY
Next Company Events
Date
Comany
25.08.2016 Vivendi SA
Medtronic PLC
30.08.2016 Baloise Holding AG
Time
Domicile
Period
Estimated
Aft-Mkt
S1 16
12:45
Q1 17
1.01
S1 16
4.76
The views of Bank CIC (Switzerland) Ltd. expressed herein are subjective and are based on information that is in the public domain and on third party sources. No representation or warranty is made by
Bank CIC (Switzerland) Ltd. that the information provided or recommendations made are complete, accurate or up-to-date. Recommendations may not be applicable to specific investors or groups of
investors and may not under any circumstances be used as a basis for making investment decisions. Investors are advised to consult a professional advisor before making any investment decision. Nothing
in the information, facts or recommendations contained herein shall be deemed to create any advisory relationship between Bank CIC (Switzerland) Ltd. and users of this website.