RMT
Transcription
RMT
Romanian Military Thinking Military Theory and Science Journal Edited by the Romanian Armed Forces General Staff 3 July September 2006 Founded in 1864 under the name “Military Romania” nd ~ English edition, 2 year ~ Authors assume full intellectual responsibility for the articles submitted to the editorial staff Romanian Military Thinking Journal is recognised by the National University Research Council Contents Editorial The Strategy of Certitude Col Costinel PETRACHE, PhD 9 College Interarmees de Defense The Evidence of Fraternity The Forehead and the Chin: Think and Act as a Genuine Officer Lt Cdr Laurent SUDRAT 13 The Sword and the Spirit Lt Col Thibault de BREBISSON 24 Pacification: the French School Maj Philippe Savary de BEAUREGARD 35 Should We Let War Reporters “Slip into our Beds” ? Maj Gilles JARON 45 Vo Nguyen Giap: a Gifted Strategist and an Instrument of Vietnam Independence Maj Dominique LUCHEZ 53 Strategic Divergences Lt Cdr Charles-Edouard DARD 63 3 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 Would There Be a War of the Nile ? Maj Philippe CAVALIER The USA Foreign Policy in the Light of its Domestic History Maj Richard ZABOT 75 84 Opinions • Arguments Certitudes • Perspectives 96 The End of Management ? Cpt Doina ILIE 100 Global Politics Corneliu POPESCU Geopolitics • Geostrategy International Security Strategic Reflections: Policy of Force, Strategy on a Knife Edge Brig (r) Gheorghe V~DUVA, PhD 107 Power and Its Role in Postmodern Geopolitics Col Constantin HLIHOR, PhD, Professor 114 Political-Military Relations in the Wider Black Sea Area. Manifestations and Tendencies Capt Ion STAN 124 The War in Afghanistan in the Context of Wiping Out World Terrorism Lt Col Vasile VREME, PhD 135 RMT Dialogues Interview with Brigadier Niculae TABARCIA, Chief of the Doctrine and Training Directorate within the General Staff 4 141 Contents RMT Debates “Air Power in the Paradigm of Globalisation”. Guests: Air Flotilla General Victor STRÎMBEANU, PhD, Deputy Director, The Partnership Coordination Cell ~ PCC, Mons, Belgium, Colonel Florian R@PAN, PhD, Deputy Commandant of the National Defence University “Carol I”, Colonel Traian ANASTASIEI, PhD, Professor, Head (Dean) of the Faculty of Command and Staff, the National Defence University “Carol I” and Colonel Vasile BUCINSCHI, PhD, University Reader, Head of the Air and Naval Forces Department, the National Defence University “Carol I” 156 Military Publications Universe 183 Editorial Events 187 Thinking Differently ... 192 Abstracts 194 5 Contenu Inhalt Editorial La stratégie de la certitude Colonel dr. Costinel PETRACHE Editorial 9 College Interarmees de Defense L ’argument de la fraternite Strategie der Sicherheit Oberst dr. Costinel PETRACHE College Interarmees de Defense Das Argument .. der Bruderlichkeit Le front et le menton: penser et agir pour l’officier Capitaine de corvette Laurent SUDRAT 13 Die Vorderseite und das Kinn: denken und für den offizier handeln Lt.-Komandeur Laurent SUDRAT Le sabre et l’esprit Lieutenant-colonel Thibault de BREBISSON 24 Der Säbel und der Geist Oberst dr. Thibault de BREBISSON Pacification: l’école française Chef d’escadron Philippe Savary de BEAUREGARD 35 Die Friedensstiftung: französische Schule Major Philippe Savary de BEAUREGARD Peut-on laisser les reporters de guerre “se glisser dans nos lits” ? Chef d’escadron Gilles JARON 45 Kann man die Kriegsberichter sich in unserem “Leben verkehren lassen” ? Major Gilles JARON Vo Nguyen Giap: stratège de génie et instrument de l’indépendance du Vietnam Chef d’escadron Dominique LUCHEZ 53 Vo Nguyen Giap: genialer Stratege und Instrument der Unabhängigkeit Vietnams Major Dominique LUCHEZ 6 Divergences stratégiques Capitaine de corvette Charles-Edouard DARD 63 Contents Strategische Divergenzen Lt.-Komandeur Charles-Edouard DARD La guerre du Nil aura-t-elle lieu ? Commandant Philippe CAVALIER 75 Wird ein Krieg Nils stattfinden? Major Philippe CAVALIER La politique extérieure des États-Unis d’Amérique à la lumière de leur histoire intérieure Commandant Richard ZABOT 84 Die Außenpolitik der Staaten, die im Licht ihrer internen Geschichte Major Richard ZABOT Opinions Certitudes • • Meinungen • Argumente Gewissen • Perspektiven Arguments Perspectives La fin du management ? Capitaine Doina ILIE La politique globale Corneliu POPESCU Geopolitique • Geostrategie Securite internationale 96 Das Ende des Managements ? Hauptmann Doina ILIE 100 Globale Politik Corneliu POPESCU Geopoliti Geopolitikk • Geostrategie Internationale Sicherheit Réflexions stratégiques: Politique de force, stratégie qui tient à un fil Général de brigade (de réserve) Gheorghe V~DUVA 107 Strategische Überlegungen: La puissance et son rôle dans le contexte de la géopolitique post-moderne Colonel prof. dr. Constantin HLIHOR 114 Die Macht und ihre Rolle im postmoderne Les rapports politico-militaires dans la Zone Elargie de la Mer Noire. Expressions et tendances Capitaine de vaisseau Ion STAN 124 Die Gewaltpolitik, Strategie am Rand des Abgrunds Bgd. Gen (r) dr. Gheorghe V~DUVA Geopolitik Oberst dr. Lehrer Constantin HLIHOR Tendenz politico-militärischen Beziehungen in der erweiterten Zone des Schwarzen Meeres Komandeur Ion STAN 7 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 135 Der Krieg im Afghanistan im Rahmen La guerre de l’Afghanistan dans le contexte de la liquidation du terrorisme mondial Lieutenant-colonel dr. Vasile VREME der Beilegung des weltweiten Terrorismus Oberst-lt. dr. Vasile VREME Dialogues RMT RMT Interview avec le général de brigade Niculae TABARCIA, le chef de la Direction Doctrine et Instruction d’Etat Major Général Debats RMT 141 Befragung mit der Brigade General Niculae TABARCIA, Leiter der Doktrin-und Ausbildungsbteilung des Generalstabs RMT “La puissance aérienne dans la paradigme de la globalisation”. Invités: général de flottille aérienne dr. Victor STRÎMBEANU, le directeur adjoint de la Cellule de coordination du Parteneriat ~ CCP, colonel dr. Florian R@PAN, adjoint du commandant chef de l’Université Nationale de Défense “Carol I”, colonel prof. univ. dr. Traian ANASTASIEI, le chef (le doyen) de la Faculté de Commande et Etat Major de l’Université Nationale de Défense “Carol I”, et colonel prof. univ. dr. Vasile BUCINSCHI, le chef de la Cathè dre des Forces Aériennes et Navales de l’Université Nationale de Défense “Carol I” Dialoge Debatten 156 “Luftstärke im Globalisierungsparadigme”. Gäste: Luftflottegeneral dr. Victor STRÎMBEANU, Assistentendirektor die Zelle der Koordinierung Parteneriat ~ ZKP, Kommandeur dr. Florian R@PAN, stellvertreter der Kommandant der Nationalen Verteidigungsuniversität “Carol I”, Kommandeur Hochschullehrer dr. Traian ANASTASIEI, Leiter (Dekan) der Kommando-und Stabsfakultät der Nationalen Verteidigungsuniversität “Carol I”, und Kommandeur Dozent Dr. Vasile BUCINSCHI, Leiter der Luft-und Seekräftelehrstuhl der Nationalen Verteidigungsuniversität “Carol I” Univers militaire 183 Universum des publications der Militärveroffentlichungen Evenements editoriaux 187 Leitartiklerereignisse Penser autrement ... 192 Anders denken ... Resumes 194 Zusammengefaß t 8 The Strategy La strategie of Certitude de la certitude Certitude – the immediate state of confidence in one’s own potential, related to the acknowledged condition of the future; surrealist blackmail on an induced utopia; acute sense of interest motivated by irrevocable desiderata; confirmation of subtle realities and of the power to comprehend, know and do; seductive affinity of expectation with truth and desire; measure of knowledge pushed up to the limit of deliberate avoidance of adventure and, last but not least, the value of tomorrow within the unleashed, accelerated power of today. By way of example, gently and fastidiously expanding into complementarities which become shelters for active meanings crammed together, the definition seems to be a matter of absolutes: the frontier – initiating, the method – implacable, the way – certain, the motivation – thorough. Wherefrom the fact, neither generically confirmed nor historically contradicted, that in order to have it play its part in the firm architecture of longlasting constructions, certitude has to find its own purpose in the radical significances of a chosen strategy. Certitude is not an event; it is the work of the unsimulated truth, of the methodical expectation and of the evidence of having the power to find oneself at supreme levels of existence. It is, maybe, and this is an important La certitude – l’état direct de la confiance dans le propre potentiel, rapporté à la condition compréhensive de l’avenir; la pression surréaliste vers une utopie induite; la perception aigue d’un intérêt justifiée par des aspirations irrévocables; la confirmation des réalités subtiles et de la pouvoir de saisir, savoir et faire; une séduisante affinité de l’attente de la vérité et du désir; la mesure de la connaissance poussée jusqu’à la limite de l’action d’éviter intentionnellement l’aventure et, enfin, pas du tout le moindre, la valeur de demain dans la pouvoir désinvolte, vivante d’aujourd’hui. Ainsi, développée doucement et affectée dans les complémentarités qui deviennent des abris pour les raisons actives, la définition semble être une question de l’absolue: le bout – initiatique; la méthode – inéluctable; le parcours – incontestable; la finalité – accomplie. Par ici le fait, ni génériquement confirmé, ni historiquement forcé, que, pour la mettre en rôle, à l’intérieure de l’architecture ferme des constructions durables, la certitude doit se retrouver dans les significations exigées d’une stratégie choisie. La certitude n’est pas un événement; c’est un travail de la véracité non simulée, de l’attente systématique et de l’évidence de la puissance de te retrouver, toi-même, dans les sens supérieures de l’existence. Il est, peut être, l’observation nécessaire 9 Romanian Military Thinking finding in the neuter dialectics of becoming, the very reason that causes certitude to be a disincentive in the practice of grass-rooted performances, performances that lack any perspective on the future. Being in a mutually open relationship, devoid of any subversive complicity, certitude and performance guarantee that, no matter what definition we might provide for them, it cannot be a static or negative one, but rather one that is spatial and dynamic. Performance cultivates, in the factual equation of existence, certitude not as an abstraction, generated by inevitable philosophy, but as a mood that steadily nourishes strategies, plans and projects. This is the very reason why performance can be seen as an ultimatum that simply wipes or not those meant to uncertainties and their static curves out from the structural organisation chart. We realise, implicitly, that certitude cannot be understood as a gift or as fatality lacking in a solid ground, in which the means and methods meant to maintain and develop it come and breed, but as an inner state that organically loathes futility, mediocrity and stagnation. Stirring up the metaphysical fascination with the impossible, certitude signals the moments in which professional shortcomings cannot be supported any more, cannot be kept in the orbit of an assisted organisational socialisation; on the contrary, impartially encouraging affirmation through competition, it is supportive for the principle of different adequacy to context. Certitude cannot be but genuine and, at worst, it can be substituted with puzzles, tailored in a too simple manner to fit in festive environments by those who desert from uncertainty, situation that can be easily detected and qualified. Without 10 ~ 3/2006 dans la logique impartiale de devenir, la raison pour laquelle la certitude démoralise la pratique des performances au brin d’herbe, des performances sans perspective. Repérées dans une relation réciproque transparente, soutirée à n’importe quoi complicité subversive, la certitude et la performance soutiennent le fait que, n’importe qu’elle est leur définition, celle-ci n’est pas une définition statique ou négative, mais plutôt l’une spatiale et dynamique. C’est la performance qui cultive, dans l’équation factuelle de l’existence, la certitude pas comme une concept d’une philosophie inévitable, mais comme un état d’esprit qui nourrit solidement des stratégies, des modèles et des projets. Voici, c’est la raison pour laquelle la performance est un sorte d’ultimatum qui annule ou pas sur la carte structurelle de l’organisation ceux-ci qui sont affectés à l’incertitude et aux ses courbes stables. Nous réalisons implicitement que la certitude ne peut pas être assimilée comme un donné ou une fatalité arrêtée où les méthodes et les moyens d’entretenir et développer apparaissent ou s’accroîtrent ellesmêmes, mais, comme un état intérieur qui hait organiquement l’inutilité, la médiocrité et la stagnation. En incitant le magnétisme abstrait de l’impossible, la certitude nous découvre les moments dans lesquels l’incomplet professionnel ne plus être aidé, ne plus être maintenu sur l’orbite d’une assimilation organisationnelle assistée; au contraire, en engageant impartialement l’affirmation par la compétition, elle soutient le principe de l’adéquation différentié au contexte. La certitude ne peut pas être cachée, par un stratagème, mais, à pire, elle peut être substituée par des jeux des figures aisément adaptées aux circonstances festives, par des délateurs de l’incertitude, c’est une condition facilement d’être Editorial pretending to have exhausted the philosophy and effects of the issue, we allow ourselves to outline the virtues of certitude, as follows: it supports the predicted substantiation of a collective idea, meant to strategically guide conducts that would lead to optimal development of forces; it makes the performance scenario and, implicitly, the one of the actions taken so that performance could exist more lively; it induces cohesion and stability in the system; it excludes consensus as a result of indifference and positive loyalty simulation; it consists neither in a state maintained due to situational ambitions and colourless opportunities, nor in the energy provided by genetic repression, but in the attitude motivated and nourished by performance and evidence; it is incompatible with the display of logic in an order of battle and with transformed and aesthetically seduced marginality. When it comes to the national military institution and its present role, the Romanian Armed Forces Transformation Strategy is, systemically, the very certitude that lies at the basis of the Romanian military body transparent, certified, adequate and methodical reconstruction. It is the certitude of all certitudes that will empower the Romanian Armed Forces enduring and continuous development in this century. To ensure such a type of development, transformation needs, as we have already acknowledged, militants in favour of certitude and, by no means, supporters of success, who dwell in the shelters created at the shadow of intermediate achievements. surprise et qualifié. Sans épuiser, d’une manière indirecte, son raisonnement et son effet, nous nous permettons de trouver les vertus de la certitude, comme suite: elle soutient le fondement prédictible d’une idée collective qui doit orienter stratégiquement les comportements, ce qui déterminerait un progresse optime des forces; elle vitalise le scénario de la performance et, implicitement, celui de l’action déployée pour son procès; elle détermine la cohésion et la stabilité systémique; elle exclue le consensus par l’indifférence et la simulation de la loyauté positive; elle ne consiste pas dans la nature conservée par des ambitions conjoncturelles et des opportunités insipides, pas dans l’énergie donnée des répliques génétiques, mais dans l’attitude motivée et soutenue par la performance et la démonstration; elle est incompatible avec le rangement de la logique à l’ordre du combat et avec la marginalité transformée et esthétiquement séduisée. Quant à la vocation concrète de l’institution militaire nationale, La Stratégie de transformation de l’Armée Roumaine est, systémiquement, la certitude même avec qui nous rétablissons, dans une manière transparente, certifiée, adéquate et méthodique, l’organisme militaire roumain. C’est la certitude des certitudes qui accentuera le parcours du développement durable de l’Armée Roumaine dans ce siècle. Un développement dans lequel, nous avons remarqué déjà, la transformation a besoin des adeptes de la certitude et pas du tout des sympathisés du succès, installés dans les abris situés à l’ombre des accomplissements intermédiaires. Colonel Costinel PETRACHE, PhD Version française par Alina UNGHEANU 11 , Interarmées College de Défense The Evidence of Fraternity The idea of this collaboration was born in the tactical scenery of an agreeable discussion with Major Cristophe Midan, while we were both attending the National Defence College. No previous preparations were necessary; I simply applied the current editorial conduct, a sign of the fact that, in the European state of affirmation through the spirit, barriers ceased to exist long time ago. I knew a few things about the height of the French School of geopolitical and geostrategic thought as I had also been familiar, from the current publications as well as from history, with the height of the French military thinking. It is the reason for which the works that were sent to our editorial staff did not surprise us, on the contrary, they developed and consolidated the certitude that the doctrinaire state of the French military thinking meritoriously keeps the highest trajectory of affirmation. As for the authors, we know nothing more than the profile that was configured by the articles that were sent to the editorial staff to be published, which we found extremely convincing. Acknowledged in and by Collège Interarmées de Défense, editor of a publication of large and inspired theoretical engagement ~ La Tribune – Lieutenant Commander Laurent SUDRAT, Lieutenant Colonel Thibault de BREBISSON, Major Philippe Savary de BEAUREGARD, Major Gilles JARON, Major Dominique LUCHEZ, Lieutenant Commander Charles-Edouard DARD, Major Philippe CAVALIER, Major Richard ZABOT draw our attention towards an issue that comprehensively consists in the essence of theoretical affirmations; the objectivity of the engaged judgements; the predictive understanding of the nodal commandments of military development; the analytical character of the discourse; the clarity and pertinence of the invoked arguments; the academic casualness of the language; the deep culture of philosophical breath; the inspired complementary incursion into the core of related disciplines; the active loyalty, although critical of recent history; the lapidary objectivity of conclusions; the trust in a universe of values that is not rigid and dogmatic but open and flexible. Beyond all the above-mentioned things, the path opened by this collaboration is, first and foremost, an encouraging evidence of fraternity. “RMT” 12 THE FOREHEAD LE FRONT AND THE CHIN ET LE MENTON think and act as a genuine officer penser et agir pour l’officier “There is no wealth without “Il n’est de richesse que people”. This famous John Bodin’s d’hommes”. Cet aphorisme célèbre aphorism could be engraved de Jean Bodin pourrait être inscrit with golden letters on the en lettres d’or au frontispice de frontispiece of all the military tous les établissements militaires, establishments, as long as the tant la valeur d’une armée repose, value of an army rests, today as aujourd’hui comme hier, sur yesterday, on the quality of the la qualité de son personnel. personnel. Hierarchical structures Structures hiérarchisées par by definition, the armed forces essence, les forces armées naturally try to recruit and to train cherchent naturellement à recruter et à préparer des chefs commanders that will be able, qui pourront, le moment venu, when the time comes, to take commander au combat et apporter command in a battle and to bring Lieutenant Commander le succès des armes. Elles briguent success to their armies. They also Laurent SUDRAT aspire to be among the superior ~ The French National Navy ~ de surcroît les esprits supérieurs que les qualités prédestinent aux hautes spirits whose qualities predestine for the high fonctions de conception et d’administration, functions of conception and of administration, ce besoin étant exacerbé par les circonstances this need being exacerbated by the contemporary contemporaines. circumstances. De plus, l’armée doit être organisée, équipée Moreover, the army must be organised, et entraînée en fonction d’opérations finalement equipped and trained according to the operations assez mal définies, aux multiples scénarios, that are, many times, poorly defined, to the dont la plupart ne se réaliseront heureusement multiple scenarios, out of which the most will jamais, mais qui s’imposent par principe be never, fortunately, true to the fact, although de précaution. Les forces humaines gérées they are imposed by precautionary principles. par cette institution destinée au combat jouissent, The human forces managed by this institution par conséquent, d’un statut très spécial au sein destined for battle enjoy, consequently, a very de la société, statut qui va sous peu être réaffirmé special status within society, status that may comme dérogeant aux règles courantes de la be reaffirmed as slightly breaching the rules citoyenneté. Ainsi, l’autorité à l’égard du personnel running citizenship. Thus, the authority with militaire, malgré quelques concessions marginales regard to the military personnel, despite some dictées par l’influence de l’époque, restera quasi marginal concessions dictated by the influence absolue et continuera de s’étendre à l’extrême of the era, will remain almost absolute and will 13 Romanian Military Thinking continue to spread itself to the extreme until this exorbitant “right to risk life”. At the end of such high stakes, the armies will unquestionably inscribe themselves in an extraordinary framework. To animate it and rise to these vital challenges, an army needs commanders with varied temperaments, although, per ensemble, they share a common base of values: the thinkers, that seek to catch what future has in store for them; the organisers, that ensure the placement in condition; the leaders under whose authority the forces are placed. We currently oppose a man of thought to a man of action or, as Jean Guitton so agreeably said, “the forehead and the chin”. In fact, the first term carries us towards abstraction and general laws, while the second blossoms rather in the concrete and the immediate realisation. It would be nevertheless hazardous to claim to classify them in the absolute, according to hierarchy of values and this analysis deserves to be explained by placing it in a realistic perspective. To various degrees, the officer is condemned to think and to act. The ambition of this study is thus to contribute to a renewal of the definition of the military commander, while emphasising some perspectives of the diptych thought-action. To do it, we refer to the reality of the military employments, their requirements and the required qualities to exercise them, before approaching the difficult exercise of the selection of the elite, supported by the concepts related to character. The proven primacy of an officer temperament will allow for proposing some adjustments to the employment of the high level human resources. “Multi sunt vocati, pauci vero electi” To begin our reflection properly, we will adopt a classification of the hierarchic levels, which include, distinguishing between ranks and the equivalent joint armed forces: • “subordinate”commanders, from the rank of lieutenant to the one of lieutenant colonel, 14 ~ 3/2006 jusqu’à cet exorbitant “droit de risquer la vie”. A l’aune de tels enjeux, les armées s’inscrivent sans conteste dans un cadre extraordinaire. Pour s’animer et relever ces défis vitaux, l’armée a besoin de chefs aux tempéraments variés, bien que partageant un socle commun de valeurs: les penseurs qui cherchent à percer l’inconnu de l’avenir; les organisateurs, qui assurent la mise en condition; les meneurs d’homme sous l’autorité desquels sont placées les forces. Or, il est courant d’opposer homme de pensée et homme d’action ou, comme l’a dit plaisamment Jean Guitton – “le front et le menton”. En effet, le premier est porté vers l’abstraction et les lois générales, tandis que le second s’épanouit plutôt dans le concret et la réalisation immédiate. Il serait pourtant hasardeux de prétendre les classer dans l’absolu selon une hiérarchie de valeur et cette analyse mérite d’être nuancée par une mise en perspective réaliste. A des degrés divers, l’officier est condamné à penser et à agir. L’ambition de cette étude est ainsi de contribuer à une rénovation de la définition du chef militaire, en faisant jaillir quelques perspectives adossées à ce diptyque pensée-action. Pour ce faire, nous nous appuierons sur la réalité des emplois militaires, leurs exigences et les qualités requises pour les exercer, avant d’aborder le difficile exercice de la sélection des élites, soutenus par les concepts de la caractérologie. La primauté avérée du tempérament chez l’officier nous permettra alors de proposer quelques réajustements à l’emploi des ressources humaines de haut niveau. “Multi sunt vocati, pauci vero electi” Pour amorcer convenablement notre réflexion, adoptons une classification des niveaux hiérarchiques, en distinguant (grades et équivalents interarmées inclus): • les chefs “subalterns”, du grade de lieutenant à celui de lieutenant-colonel, qui assurent College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity who ensure the command of elementary units, in the specific framework of an army or of a specialty. The dominating trait for them is the know-how. They are rarely employed in transverse tasks and, in case they are, it is generally under command, as specialists; • “superior” commanders, from the rank of colonel to the one of division general, who exercise their activities in two domains, according to their position, at the command of joint units or in the central administration; • “big leaders”, from the rank of general of army, whose tasks always require a mixture of administration and a close relation with civil and political authorities. Let us briefly describe the three faces of an officer: the subordinate commander is, above all, a man of action, associated with a technician that implements equipment and systems of weapons. His action takes place at the tactical or even operational levels, which are relatively easy to take up. Besides idealism, authority and energy, he is required a rustic character of the body and of spirit, the sense of duty and the spirit of discipline. These human qualities widely compensate eventual deficiencies in the domain of culture. The common sense and a certain down-to-earth realism will be the most demanded aspects of his intelligence; the responsibilities of the superior commander, of staff or of headquarters, always suppose experience, solid military knowledge and reflection: the commander of a big unit (a regiment, a first rank vessel or an airbase) has, in addition, to have the characteristics of a leader: character, associated with will and with the sense of responsibility. But, according to his position, authority, dynamism, eyes like a hawk cannot compensate any deficiency in the process of organisation, a cardinal virtue, for which he must combine the action of various elements; la conduite d’unités élémentaires, dans le cadre spécifique d’une arme ou d’une spécialité. Leur dominante est le savoir-faire. Ils ne sont que rarement employés dans des tâches transverses, ou, s’ils le sont, c’est généralement en sous-ordre et en tant que spécialistes; • les chefs “supérieurs”, de colonel à général de division, qui exercent leurs activités dans deux domaines, selon qu’ils sont placés à la tête d’unités interarmes voire interarmées, ou qu’ils participent à l’administration centrale; • les “grands chefs”, à partir du rang de général de corps d’armée, dont les tâches comportent toujours un mélange d’administration, de commandement et de contact étroit avec les autorités civiles et politiques. Balayons succinctement ces trois figures d’officier: le chef subalterne est avant tout un homme de terrain, associé d’un technicien mettant en œuvre des matériels et des systèmes d’armes. Son action prend place au niveau tactique voire opératif, qui reste relativement aisé à embrasser. En plus d’idéal, d’autorité et d’énergie, on lui demande la rusticité du corps et d’esprit, le sens du devoir et l’esprit de discipline. Ces qualités humaines compensent largement d’éventuelles déficiences dans le domaine de la culture. Le bon sens et un certain réalisme terre à terre seront chez lui l’aspect le plus recherché de l’intelligence; les fonctions de chef supérieur, état-major ou commandement, supposent toujours de l’expérience, de solides connaissances militaires et de la réflexion: le chef d’une grande unité (chef de corps d’un régiment, commandant d’un navire de premier rang ou d’une base aérienne) doit en outre présenter les caractéristiques du meneur d’hommes: du caractère, associé à la volonté et au goût des responsabilités. Mais à l’échelon où il se trouve, l’autorité, le dynamisme, le coup d’œil, ne peuvent compenser aucune déficience du sens de l’organisation, vertu cardinale pour qui doit combiner l’action d’éléments très divers; 15 Romanian Military Thinking the staff officer participates in the general management functions, preparing decisions and watching to their execution. The first function supposes the aptitude for analysis and for synthesis, flexible spirit and imagination fertilised by experience. The second demands clarity, order and spirit of accomplishment. the required qualities for the superior commander are, one sees it, numerous and varied. Sometimes, they meet within the same individual. But, most often, the officer, without showing a marked deficiency, is characterised by a special virtue. This predominance should determine his employment and his career: a strong character oriented towards command, particularly extensive intellectual capacities to meet the requirements of his position in the staff, while a balance between these qualities should push towards the summits. the big leader is not necessarily a big spirit, or a big heart, but a man of character who, placed at the command of a very important body, makes the just decisions, while knowing to measure the issues and to assume the risks. He is preferentially situated at the “strategic level”. The case of General Eisenhower on the eve of the disembarkation on June 6, 1944 is often quoted as an emblematic example of the crushing weight of the responsibilities resting on one single man, alone “to show the merit to have known to risk the supreme issues”. Following the example of Hernani conspirators, the big leader is therefore the one that sets up ambitious objectives and follows without failing the narrow and perilous ways of success: “Ad augusta per angusta…”. Once set up, the army awaits for those Colbert ones (let us grant Louvois the joint spirit …) of modern times: legislators, skilled administrators, leaders responsible for organisation, as we call them today, whose role is essential. How to select them ? This ternary categorisation, no matter how reprehensible, presents the advantage of putting in epigraph the required qualities for each level 16 ~ 3/2006 l’officier d’état-major participe aux fonctions de direction générale, préparant les décisions et veillant à leur exécution. La première fonction suppose l’aptitude à l’analyse comme à la synth è se, la souplesse d’esprit, l’imagination fécondée par l’expérience. La seconde exige clarté, ordre et esprit de realization; les qualités requises chez le chef supérieur sont, on le voit, nombreuses et variées. Parfois, elles se trouvent réunies chez un même individu. Mais le plus souvent l’officier, sans faire preuve d’une déficience marquée, est caractérisé par une vertu particulière. Cette prédominance devrait déterminer son emploi et sa carrière: un caractère fortement dessiné oriente vers le commandement, des capacités intellectuelles particulièrement étendues vers l’état-major, tandis qu’un heureux équilibre entre ces qualités devrait pousser vers les sommets. le grand chef n’est pas nécessairement un grand esprit, ni un grand cœur, mais un homme de caractère qui, placé à la tête d’un organisme très important, prend les décisions justes en sachant en mesurer les enjeux et en assumer les risques. Il se situe préférentiellement au “niveau stratégique”. Le cas du généralissime Eisenhower à la veille du débarquement du 6 juin 1944 est souvent cité comme exemple emblématique du poids écrasant des responsabilités reposant sur un seul homme, seul à “démontrer le mérite d’avoir su risquer les enjeux suprêmes”. A l’instar des conjurés d’Hernani, le grand chef est donc celui qui fixe des objectifs ambitieux et emprunte sans faillir les voies étroites et périlleuses du succès: “Ad augusta per angusta … ”. Cela fixé, l’armée attend aussi les Colbert (concédons Louvois à l’esprit interarmées…) des temps modernes: codificateurs, administrateurs avisés, grands responsables organiques dirions-nous aujourd’hui, leur rôle aussi est primordial. Comment les sélectionner ? Cette catégorisation ternaire, aussi critiquable soit-elle, présente l’avantage de mettre en exergue les qualités requises à chaque niveau College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity of responsibility. It allows us, at present, to refine the selection filter of officers, basing on the primacy of culture and, especially, of character. “It is necessary for a military to have as much character as spirit”1 There are numerous historical evidence to associate the action and reflection, and often to literature, with regard to the same person, as John François Deniau shows in his last work “La double passion; écrire ou agir”. The connivance between the feather and the sword has crystallised big destinies. From Julius Caesar to de Gaulle, going through Vauvenargues, Alfred de Vigny (having been bored in garrison and delivering the admirable “Servitude et grandeur militaries”), Richelieu, Napoleon, Stendhal and Clemenceau, these two burning fires have always driven the world. But to write, or simply to reflect, necessitates a referential cultural baggage. Culture, perceived as a specialisation and development, is an enrichment of the basic professional knowledge. One does not imagine an engineer without scientific culture, or a banker without financial culture. Consequently, an officer cannot lack military culture. The ideology that has tended to substantially diminish this matter in the formation of the officer for about twenty years, in the name of a depraved vision of Modernism, had no other effect than to weaken the esprit de corps. This tendency seems fortunately to invert itself today, notably due to the pragmatic example of the Anglo-Saxon Armies that place, without ambiguity, the military training in the foreground of the formation of their officers, when, in France, university curricula are still privileged. The return of “leadership” formation in grace in officer schools gives hope, but mentalities will have to evolve to place the military and human training, through its forms 1 de responsabilité. Elle nous permet à présent d’affiner le filtre de sélection des officiers, en nous fondant sur la primauté de la culture et surtout du caractère. “Il faut qu’un homme de guerre ait autant de caractere que d’esprit”1 Les cautions historiques sont nombreuses à associer l’action et la réflexion, et souvent l’écriture, chez un même homme, comme le démontre Jean François Deniau dans son dernier ouvrage La double passion; écrire ou agir. La connivence entre la plume et l’épée a cristallisé de grands destins. De Jules César à De Gaulle, en passant par Vauvenargues, Alfred de Vigny (s’étant ennuyé en garnison et nous livrant l’admirable “servitude et grandeur militaries”), Richelieu, Napoléon, Stendhal et Clemenceau, toujours ces deux feux brûlants ont conduit le monde. Mais écrire, ou simplement réfléchir, nécessite un bagage culturel de référence. La culture, perçue comme une spécialisation et un approfondissement, est un enrichissement des connaissances professionnelles de base. On n’imagine pas un ingénieur sans culture scientifique, ni un banquier sans culture financière. De même un officier ne peut en aucun cas se passer de culture militaire. L’idéologie qui a tendu à diminuer substantiellement la part de cette matière dans la formation des officiers depuis une vingtaine d’années, au nom d’une vision dévoyée du modernisme, n’a eu d’autre effet que d’amoindrir l’esprit de corps. Cette tendance semble heureusement s’inverser aujourd’hui, grâce notamment à l’exemple pragmatique des armées anglo-saxonnes, qui placent sans équivoque l’instruction militaire au premier plan de la formation de leurs officiers, là où en France on privilégie encore les cursus universitaires. Le retour en grâce de la formation au “leadership” dans les écoles d’officier est porteur d’espoir, mais les mentalités devront encore évoluer pour placer l’instruction militaire Napoléon 17 Romanian Military Thinking of “Crapahut” (land, air and naval), in the first row of the taught subjects. As for the general culture, General de Gaulle quoted it as being “the true school of command”. In fact, in broader sense, culture – combination of several school disciplines – is a formation of the spirit. It lights up, widens, deepens the thought, it allows for linking up, dominating ensembles, understanding the superior laws of events and things organisation. This culture is a good leaven; again it is necessary there to be dough. In fact, culture must nourish intelligence. Poorly assimilated, it becomes harmful, for it distorts perspectives, drives to pride and to the ease, predisposes to scepticism, disperses: “There is no cultivated man. There are only men that cultivate themselves”, said Marshal Foch. This culture, irrigating intelligence, reveals itself only through character; let us think of the chapter of “Le Fil de l’Epée”, dedicated to this subject: “The man of character embraces action with the pride of the master (…); without his gloomy slave-like duty, thanks to the divine game of the hero (…) it is necessary for virtue to give the military order a rejuvenated ideal, to confer, through the elite, the unity of tendencies, to provoke fervour and to fertilise talent. Character will be this ferment ...”. To distinguish the man of character we should resort to the study of character, this science that makes us penetrate in what determines man’s behaviour, to apply a structuring grid to the military needs. The classification by physical characteristics of Cornélius Heymans (Belgian doctor, Nobel Prize, 1938) offers an impressive picture of human characters by the combination of the three basic components that are emotion, activity and effect. Without pretending to resume the theory here, we should remember that: • emotion acts as a powerful supporting factor. Its decrease induces establishment of coldness and of a certain detachment; 18 ~ 3/2006 et humaine, dont le “crapahut” sous toutes ses formes (terrestre, aérienne et nautique), au premier rang des matières enseignées. Quant à la culture générale, elle a été citée par le général De Gaulle comme étant “la véritable école du commandement”. En effet, dans un sens plus large, la culture – combinaison de plusieurs disciplines scolaires – est une formation de l’esprit. Elle éclaire, élargit, approfondit la pensée, elle permet de relier, de dominer des ensembles, de comprendre les lois supérieures de l’agencement des événements et des choses. Cette culture est un bon levain; encore faut-il qu’il y ait de la pâte. En effet, la culture doit nourrir l’intelligence. Mal assimilée, elle devient nuisible, car elle déforme les perspectives, conduit à l’orgueil et à la facilité, prédispose au scepticisme, disperse: “Il n’y a pas d’homme cultivé. Il n’y a que des hommes qui se cultivent”, disait le Maréchal Foch. Mais enfin cette culture, irriguant l’intelligence, ne se révèle que par le caractère; imprégnons-nous du chapitre du “Fil de l’Epée” qui lui est consacré: “l’homme de caractè re embrasse l’action avec l’orgueil du maître (…); sans lui morne tâche d’esclave, grâce à lui jeu divin du héros (…) il faut qu’une vertu offre à l’ordre militaire un idéal rajeuni, lui confère, par l’élite, l’unité des tendances, provoque l’ardeur et féconde le talent. Le Caractère sera ce ferment …”. Pour discerner l’homme de caract è re et se prémunir du caractériel, il est éclairant de recourir à la caractérologie, cette science qui nous fait pénétrer dans ce qui détermine le comportement de l’homme, pour appliquer une grille structurante aux besoins militaires. Le classement par caractéristiques psychiques de Cornélius Heymans (médecin belge, prix Nobel 1938, d’autres outils ayant depuis été développés sur la base de ses travaux) offre un tableau saisissant des caractères humains par la combinaison des trois composantes fondamentales que sont l’émotivité, l’activité et le retentissement. Sans en reprendre la théorie complète ici, tout au plus rappellerons-nous que: • l’émotivité agit dans l’action comme un puissant facteur de soutien. Sa diminution College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity • activity measures “the action spirit”, the aptitude to search, to realise, and to take several actions. It favours optimism and inspiration; • effect depends on the propensity to react to a given situation, in an immediate or delayed manner, after maturation and aggregation. The combination of these properties allows for identifying a typology of characters, distinguishing, in particular, the passionate, the sanguine and the phlegmatic ones. On this basis, the needs of the armies are translatable by caracterology, which is used as a tool for selection. The leader, because he must know to convince and sometimes to impose, must possess a marked character: one can imagine that it is better for a passionate or a sanguine than for an emotional person, although active, to be in the position of a leader. Though history revealed the superiority of leaders belonging to these two categories, it should not underestimate the phlegmatic ones. Gifted thinkers for the abstraction, as they are balanced, deep, endowed with an excellent memory, some of them are not less tenacious in action: thus Joffre left it unfold, without raising his eyebrow and without resting, the alarming withdrawal from August 1914 to the Marne turnaround. After launching these directions for reflection, what suggestions can we make ? “An important man is the one that sees quickly, far and just” This aphorism that belongs to Montesquieu sends us back to the observation of behaviour and character. A first promising direction consists, despite of inevitable application difficulties, in an accentuation of the system of patterns in the light of the individual results and caracterology. Human resources directorates have developed procedures that draw to the intimate entraîne parallèlement une diminution de ses effets, mais aussi favorise l’établissement de la froideur et d’un certain détachement; • l’activité mesure “l’esprit d’entreprise”, l’aptitude à chercher, à réaliser, à mener de front plusieurs actions. Elle favorise l’optimisme et l’inspiration; • le retentissement rend compte de la propension à réagir à un événement donné, de façon immédiate ou à retardement, après mûrissement et agrégation. La combinaison de ces propriétés permet d’identifier une typologie de caract è res, distinguant en particulier les passionnés, les sanguins et les flegmatiques. Sur cette base, les besoins des armées sont traduisibles par la caractérologie, à utiliser comme outil d’aide à la sélection. Le chef, parce qu’il doit savoir convaincre et parfois imposer, doit posséder un caractère marqué: on imagine mieux que des passionnés et des sanguins conduisent leurs semblables que des hommes dénués d’émotivité et d’activité. Si l’histoire a révélé la supériorité de chefs appartenant à ces deux catégories, il ne faut pas pour autant sous-estimer les flegmatiques. Penseurs doués pour l’abstraction, car ils sont pondérés, profonds, dotés d’une excellente mémoire, certains n’en sont pas moins tenaces dans l’action: ainsi Joffre a-t-il laissé se dérouler, sans sourciller (et sans manquer un repas !) l’angoissante retraite d’août 1914 jusqu’au redressement de la Marne. Apr è s avoir ainsi livré quelques pistes de réflexion, quelles propositions pouvons-nous formuler ? “Un grand homme est celui qui voit vite, loin et juste” Cet apophtegme de Montesquieu nous renvoie à l’observation du comportement et du caractère. Une première piste prometteuse consiste, malgré d’inévitables difficultés d’application, en une accentuation du système des filières à la lumière des résultats individuels et de la caractérologie. 19 Romanian Military Thinking knowledge of men and detect their “high potential”. But the criteria of interpreting aptitudes are too marked by the French propensity to academic elitism. To speak straight, a graduate from Saint-Cyr, who did not have very good marks in school, would he have the luck, at the age of 23, for example, to accede to high functions, even if he has remarkable qualities in the exercise of command ? And what is he, a fortiori, but an officer marked by the original tares of a less prestigious recruitment ? Or, the army finality is in the fight. All is in vain if, when the day comes, our commanders do not lead us to victory. The French Navy of 1940 was one of the best in the world, but we are allowed to believe that at the scuttling on November 27, 1942, some of its commanders lacked character. As a corollary, it is natural to understand that political authorities do not appreciate those generals who have a too impetuous character, who have an insufficiently docile temperament, who have too asserted ideals or who have too rogue reactions. In our republican Jacobin tradition, the officer of character is of course awaited in the theatres of operations, but he would be therefore pushed aside, by convenience, from the circles of power where he would be rendered unfit. In certain spirits, a loss of the flavoured feeling of high command – despite some striking counter-examples – rises to this hypothesis. We nevertheless believe that the key orientation of the best officers must be their character, actually the only one differentiating criterion, as it alone reveals the deep resources: “It is necessary for masters to have souls of masters” (Charles de Gaulle, Le Fil de l’Epée). Varied allocations, in supervisory position and in operations, remain privileged moments to reveal those that possess the fabric of a leader ! Grading, the central tool of the promotion device, makes the alchemy between many variables that can be summarised as follows: the tangible quality of the rendered services 20 ~ 3/2006 Les directions des ressources humaines ont développé des procédés qui puisent à la connaissance intime des hommes et détectent les “hauts potentials”. Mais les crit è res de décryptage des aptitudes, en aval, sont trop marqués par la propension française à l’élitisme académique. Pour parler sans fard, un Saint-cyrien sorti avec un classement modeste de son école à 23 ans a-t-il la moindre chance d’accéder un jour à de hautes fonctions, même s’il brille par la suite dans l’exercice du commandement ? Et qu’en est-il, a fortiori, d’un officier marqué par la tare originelle d’un recrutement moins prestigieux ? Or, la finalité de l’armée est bien dans le combat. Tout est vain si, le jour venu, nos commandants ne nous conduisent pas à la victoire. La Marine française de 1940 était une des plus belles du monde, mais il est permis de croire qu’au sabordage du 27 novembre 1942, certains de ses chefs ont manqué de caractère. En corollaire, il est habituel d’entendre que les autorités politiques n’apprécient pas les généraux au caract è re trop impétueux, au tempérament insuffisamment docile, à l’idéal trop affirmé, aux réactions trop rugueuses. Dans notre tradition républicaine jacobine, le militaire de caractè re est certes attendu sur les théâtres d’opérations, mais serait donc écarté, par commodité, des cénacles du pouvoir o ù il indisposerait. Dans certains esprits, un sentiment d’affadissement du haut commandement – malgré quelques contreexemples frappants – relève de cette hypothèse. Nous croyons pourtant que la clef de voûte de l’orientation des meilleurs officiers doit être le caractère, seul critère réellement discriminant, car seul révélateur des ressources profondes: “Il faut que les maîtres aient des âmes de maîtres” (Charles De Gaulle, Le fil de l’épée). Les affectations variées, en situation d’encadrement et en opérations, restent des moments privilégiés pour révéler ceux qui possèdent une étoffe de chef. La notation, outil central du dispositif de promotion, fait l’alchimie entre de nombreuses variables, pouvant se résumer en deux volets: College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity and the supposed aptitude to take care of the superior functions. By means of the equivalent intellectual qualities, it is therefore normal for those whose character is the most prominent one to be pushed to the top, without procrastination. Naturally, the modern army needs skilful men to achieve the tasks related to conception, audacious reforming ones, as well as sensible administrators employed in tasks of high level that necessitate neither bravery nor exceptional charisma; their character can be less marked. They appear to be numerous today. We can thus draw the conclusion that commanders that are very good at achieving t a s k s r e l a t e d t o responsibilities in terrain are not necessarily those that shine by their gifts to abstraction and to forecast. Following this logic, it is essential to make the selected officer to attain the functions where he excels without imposing a counterproductive route, rigidified by “obligatory posts”. In this respect, the Anglo-Saxons opportunely make operational command a true “dominant” one, reserved to some of the military, while the specialists oriented towards technical systems (intelligence, logistic, forecast …) benefit from true career perspectives. In France, the passage through important posts of command remains essential. In the Navy, one sometimes sees officers with promising trajectories placed at the command of fight edifices, although these functions do not visibly please them; the confidence of their crew is not spontaneously obtained. They seem anxious to leave command without problems, as this passage is an obligation carried out with dignity, to rediscover their Parisian ambitions. This system is contaminated by dogmatism that does not put at the command of the instrument of combat those that are likely to direct it. Rare is the officer capable to excel just as well as the “employer” of an infantry regiment engaged in the field, in the division studies and general plans, and as one in the staff la qualité tangible des services rendus et l’aptitude supposée à occuper des fonctions supérieures. Par ce biais, à qualités intellectuelles équivalentes par ailleurs, il s’agit donc de pousser sans atermoiements ceux dont le caractère est le plus saillant. Naturellement, l’armée moderne a aussi grand besoin d’hommes habiles aux tâches de conception, de réformateurs audacieux comme de gestionnaires avisés dans des emplois de haut niveau qui ne nécessitent ni bravoure, ni charisme exceptionnels; leur caractère peut être moins marqué. Ils apparaissent aujourd’hui bien nombreux. Une approche par filiè re s’impose donc puisque les chefs les plus aptes aux responsabilités de terrain ne sont pas nécessairement ceux qui brillent par leurs dons à l’abstraction et à la prospective. Dans cette logique, il est essentiel de faire accéder aux fonctions où il excelle l’officier sélectionné sans lui imposer de parcours contre-productif, rigidifié par des “postes obligatoires”. A cet régard, les Anglo-saxons font opportunément du commandement opérationnel une vraie “dominante”, réservée à quelques-uns, mais les spécialistes orientés vers des filières techniques (renseignement, logistique, prospective…) y bénéficient de vraies perspectives de carrière. En France, le passage par les postes de commandement importants reste indispensable. Dans la Marine, l’on voit parfois des officiers aux trajectoires prometteuses placés à la tête de grands bâtiments de combat, ces fonctions ne les épanouissant visiblement pas; la confiance de leur équipage ne leur est pas spontanément acquise. Ils semblent avoir hâte de quitter ce commandement sans encombre, ce passage obligé dignement effectué, pour retrouver leurs ambitions parisiennes. Ce système est vicié, puisque par dogmatisme, il ne met pas aux commandes de l’outil de combat ceux qui sont le plus à même de le diriger. Rares sont les officiers aptes à exceller aussi bien comme “patron” d’un régiment d’infanterie engagé sur le terrain qu’à la division études et plans généraux de l’état-major ou en cabinet ministériel. 21 Romanian Military Thinking or ministerial office. To this precious resource, it is necessary for us to effectively dedicate the widest experience in anticipating the future; to the others, respectively to the big majority, we must leave the orientation clearly defined by systems, associated with making profitable the perennial expertise obtained by means of the supplementary formation of the middle-career. A second reformation axis consists in a rejuvenation of big commanders. Without assimilating our aging society to a gerontocracy practicing the demagogic “juvenile” as Régis Debray recently suggested (“Le plan vermeil, modeste proposition”) in the army, the age of accession to responsibilities is well near the one of the retirement ... Napoleon, for example, was 26 when he was a general and 27 when he was the commander in chief of the army artillery ! This case is of course atypical; in spite of it, the British, the military etalon we compare ourselves with, promote generals at the age of 45. It would be desirable for us to be inspired of this example. The advantages of such measures would be multiple: the colonels and lieutenants body would find itself revitalised and stimulated, the influence of our commanders would be registered on longer term, which would diminish their subjection to political hazards and would assert without ambiguity that a general is also a man of action, as long as this symbolic age, 45, imposes as the one of the full physical capacity. The recognition of those responsible for military duties by the civil society would be reinforced. In fact, it is obvious that the level of the employments of a colonel and of a brigade general, as much as that of the spirit of a distinguished top ranking official is high in the French collective imaginary. These nominations would assert at last that the political strength does not oppose to consolidation of the military elite in the French public landscape, giving some of them, by longevity, a more significant place in the state apparatus. 22 ~ 3/2006 A cette ressource précieuse, il faut effectivement donner l’expérience la plus large en prévision de l’avenir; aux autres, c’est-à-dire à la grande majorité, l’orientation clairement définie par filières, assortie d’une rentabilisation plus pérenne des expertises acquises par le biais notamment des formations complémentaires de la mi-carrière. Un deuxième axe de réforme consiste en un rajeunissement des grands chefs. Sans assimiler notre société vieillissante à une gérontocratie pratiquant le “jeunisme” démagogique comme l’a récemment suggéré Régis Debray (“Le plan vermeil, modeste proposition”), observons que dans l’armée, l’âge d’accession aux responsabilités est bien proche de celui de la retraite ... Napoléon, quant à lui, était général de division à 26 ans, et commandant en chef à 27 ans ! Ce cas est certes atypique; mais les Britanniques, étalon militaire auquel nous ne dédaignons pas de nous comparer, promeuvent aujourd’hui des généraux de 45 ans. Il serait souhaitable de s’inspirer de cet exemple. Les avantages d’une telle mesure seraient multiples: le corps des colonels et capitaines de vaisseau s’en trouverait revigoré et stimulé, l’influence de nos chefs s’inscrirait sur le plus long terme; cela diminuerait leur assujettissement aux aléas politiques et affirmerait sans ambiguïté qu’un général est aussi un homme d’action, tant cet âge symbolique, 45 ans, s’impose comme celui de la pleine capacité physique, permettant les grands élans des grands projets. L a reconnaissance des responsables militaires par la société civile s’en trouverait confortée. En effet, il est patent qu’une haute marche étage les niveaux d’emploi respectifs d’un colonel et d’un général de brigade, autant dans l’esprit d’un haut fonctionnaire distingué que dans l’imaginaire collectif des Français. Ces nominations affirmeraient enfin que le pouvoir politique ne rechigne pas à ancrer davantage les élites militaires dans le paysage public français, en leur donnant par la longévité une place plus significative dans l’appareil d’Etat. College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity “The essential quality of a Commander in Chief is the character firmness and the resolution to succeed at all price”2 In the time of satellites and cruise missiles, performance in war goes through technical superiority, and the planning method seems to relegate the role of commander to the congruent portion and to Coutau-Bégarie lectures on strategy. It would nevertheless be dangerous to lull in this scientific illusion. In fact, military success will continue to be the result of the personal qualities of some people placed in positions of command. Alexander the Great, Hannibal, Attila, Napoleon or Nelson will find new incarnations, validating this timeless concept. In times of long-lasting peace or of rather “non-war”, as we try to define this state of peripheral crises, or of diffuse and intangible threat, against our interests, it is of course more difficult for the big commanders of tomorrow to appear. Nevertheless, renouncing to some too French chimeras such as the excessive intellectualisation of our elite and a more convenient imperative of development, we can reach there. Delicate task but how determining; it is a duty of command. Therefore, the forehead and the chin do not oppose themselves but complete themselves harmoniously, being two indivisible parts of the same face, the one of an officer: this paradigm must convince us to be, without complexes or cowardice, “men of action that reflect”, according to Michel Godet’s expression. To think, to write, to act: in history, meditative warriors have known how to shape themselves a glorious destiny among long and profitable moments of introspection, of writing and of dream. 2 “La qualité essentielle d’un général en chef est la fermeté de caractere et la résolution de vaincre a tout prix”2 A l’heure des satellites et des missiles de croisière, la performance guerrière passe par la supériorité technique, et la méthode de planification semble reléguer le rôle du chef à la portion congrue et aux conférences de stratégie de monsieur Coutau-Bégarie. Il serait pourtant dangereux de se bercer de cette illusion scientiste. En effet, les succès militaires continueront de résulter pour grande part des qualités personnelles de quelques hommes placés à la tête de leurs semblables. Alexandre le Grand, Hannibal, Attila, Napoléon ou Nelson trouveront de nouvelles incarnations, validant ce concept intemporel. En temps de paix durable ou plutôt de “non guerre”, comme nous peinons à définir cet état de crises périphériques et de menace diffuse, intangible, contre nos intérêts, il est certes plus difficile de faire éclore les grands chefs de demain. Néanmoins, en renonçant à quelques chimères trop françaises telles que l’intellectualisation à outrance de nos élites et l’impératif de parcours trop convenus, nous pouvons y parvenir. Tâche délicate mais ô combien déterminante; elle est un devoir de commandement. Le front et le menton ne s’opposent donc pas mais se complè tent harmonieusement, constituant deux parties indissociables d’un même visage, celui de l’officier: ce paradigme doit nous convaincre d’être, sans complexe ni pusillanimité, des “hommes d’action qui réfléchissent”, selon l’heureuse expression syncrétique de Michel Godet. Penser, écrire, agir: dans l’histoire, des guerriers méditatifs ont su glisser dans les interstices d’un destin de gloire et de fracas de longs et fructueux instants d’introspection, d’écriture et de rêve. Napoléon 23 THE SWORD LE SABRE et and THE SPIRIT L’ESPRIT “Wasting everything to prepare “Gaspiller tout en préparant yesterday’s conflicts is synonymous les conflits d’hier, c’est assassiner !”. with assassinating yourself !”. Virulente et provocatrice, l’attaque Virulent and provocative, General récente du général Copel contre Copel’s attacking defence policy1 la politique de défense1 n’est is however not isolated. It falls cependant pas isolée. Elle s’inscrit under a whole of reflections and dans un ensemble de réflexions interrogations on the adaptation et d’interrogations sur l’adaptation of the military instrument to the de l’outil militaire aux upheavals of time. Since the rout bouleversements de l’époque. from 1940 and the traumatism it Depuis la débâcle de 1940 resulted in, the military institution et le traumatisme qui en est has frequently been blamed issu, l’institution militaire for opposition to progress, being est fréquemment taxée Lieutenant Colonel accused of preparing “yesterday’s d’immobilisme, accusée Thibault de BREBISSON ~ The French Army ~ war”. General de Gaulle’s de préparer la “guerre d’hier”. L’injonction du général De Gaulle “Il faut intervention, “It is necessary to build the army construire l’armée de ses besoins et non se satisfaire starting from its needs and not to be satisfied with de l’armée de ses habitudes” serait ainsi ignorée its practices only”, would be thus ignored through par conformisme, paresse ou manque conformism, idleness or lack of imagination. d’imagination. De fait, même si l’outil militaire In fact, even if the military instrument has been s’est profondément réformé depuis deeply reformed since the strategic upheavals les bouleversements stratégiques de la fin at the end of the 20th century, it is considered du XXème siè cle, ces changements seraient insufficient by some people: limited to a homothetic reduction, it could not meet insuffisants au regard de certains: limités à une the new challenges, particularly those posed réduction homothétique, ils ne répondraient by asymmetry2 . The question raised is that pas aux nouveaux défis, notamment ceux posés par l’asymétrie2. La question posée est celle of the finality of the military instrument. Should 1 To prevent the worst, General Etienne Copel, Michalon. 2 Asymmetry: way of confrontation privileging the use of untraditional means to elude the military force. Terrorism is an asymmetrical way of action. 24 Prévenir le pire, général Etienne Copel, Michalon. Asymétrie: mode d’affrontement privilégiant l’emploi de moyens non classiques pour contourner la force militaire. Le terrorisme est un mode d’action asymétrique. 1 2 College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity it radically break with its past to embrace the entire spectrum of security issues or should it continue to reorganise around the traditional perspective of the conventional military confrontation3 ? The stake of this question is important: defence is the second state budget and the security of the nation depends on its effectiveness. In fact, the military instrument does not have the role to answer to all the new threats. It must adapt (and it does) to all those which fall under the range of symmetrical or dissymmetrical confrontations. Though, it cannot occupy the field of the asymmetric ones, even if it has to manage some of its aspects. Indeed, even if bringing the military instrument under discussion again such as it was conceived to adapt to the challenges of global security4 is tempting, this approach is dangerous since, by globalising threats, confusion is created around the finality of the military instrument, which can compromise the present and the future. “Exploring “New Strategic Options” ?” In an article entitled Construire une nouvelle défense5 ~ Building a New Defence, General Delanghe recommends the exploration of some “new strategic options”. According to him, this means building a new and original model which is not a decline from the preceding one, but which will have to meet the “general and total need for security” and the “need for being able to control any form of violence”. By military confrontation, one should understand any confrontation putting the armed forces against an adversary using military capacities. Those can be comparable (symmetrical confrontation) or of a lower level (dissymmetrical confrontation). The guerrilla fight will be regarded as a relevant way of military action for the dissymmetrical confrontation. 4 Global security is thus defined by Dominique David: “hard security (management of the ratio of forces) + soft security (promotion of the civil factors of survival) = Global Security” in Sécurité: l’apr ès-New York, La bibliothèque du citoyen, Presse de science po. 5 AGIR Review, no. 13, winter 2003. 3 de la finalité de l’outil militaire. Doit-il rompre radicalement avec son passé pour embrasser tout le spectre des questions de sécurité ou peut-il continuer à s’organiser autour de la perspective classique de l’affrontement militaire3 conventionnel ? L’enjeu de cette question est d’importance: la défense est le deuxième budget de l’Etat et de son efficacité dépend la sécurité de la nation. En fait l’outil militaire n’a pas pour vocation de répondre à la globalité des nouvelles menaces. Il doit s’adapter (et s’adapte) à toutes celles qui s’inscrivent dans le domaine des affrontements symétriques ou dissymétriques. Mais il ne peut occuper le terrain de l’asymétrie, même s’il doit en gérer certains aspects. En effet, même s’il peut être tentant de remettre en cause l’outil militaire tel qu’il est conçu pour l’adapter au défi de la sécurité globale4, cette approche est dangereuse parce qu’en globalisant les menaces, la confusion se crée autour de la finalité de l’outil militaire, ce qui peut compromettre le présent et l’avenir. “Explorer de “nouvelles options stratégiques” ?” Dans un article intitulé Construire une nouvelle défense5, le général Delanghe proposait d’explorer de “nouvelles options stratégiques”. Il s’agit selon lui, de bâtir un modèle nouveau et original qui ne soit pas une réduction du mod è le précédent, mais qui devra répondre au “besoin général et global de sécurité” et à la “nécessité de pouvoir maîtriser toute forme de violence”. 3 Par affrontement militaire, on entendra toute confrontation mettant les forces armées aux prises avec un adversaire utilisant des capacités militaires. Celles-ci peuvent être comparables (affrontement symétrique) ou de niveau moindre (affrontement dissymétrique). La guérilla sera considérée comme un mode d'action militaire relevant de l’affrontement dissymétrique. 4 La sécurité globale est définie ainsi par M. Dominique David: “hard security (gestion des rapport de forces) + soft security (promotion des facteurs civils de survie) = Global Security” in Sécurité: l’après-New York, La bibliothèque du citoyen, Presse de science po. 5 Revue AGIR no. 13, hiver 2003. 25 Romanian Military Thinking In fact, if becoming aware of a strategic rupture is essential, the armed forces seem not to have learnt from it, and that results in bringing the relevance of the military instrument in comparison with the stakes of global security under discussion again. The Strategic Rupture To state that the 20 century page is history is a truism, and it is the same with the evocation of the two outstanding symbols which are the fall of the Berlin Wall and the attacks on September 11. The world has thus changed its logic and the fear of the bipolar, symmetrical confrontation has been replaced by the one of diffuse, multiple and globalised threats, namely one that ignores borders and space. It is thus possible to speak about a strategic rupture insofar as the nature of threat and its field of application have changed. In this context, it is the challenge posed by the asymmetrical ways of action that focuses the attention. By this indirect means, various actors can face the best equipped and trained armies, circumventing their power not only by resorting to indirect strategies, such as terrorism, but also by manipulating information and masses. Certain analyses also speak about the “equalising capacity”6 of asymmetry, implicitly comparing the consequences of resorting to this strategy with the upheaval induced by the atom. It is however necessary to stress that it is an old way of action. Asymmetry has many aspects in common with the revolutionary war. They share the central place granted to population, as the principal stake in the fight. The rupture thus lies in the fact that this threat has come to be very important today and seems to be the major challenge. th The Apparent Immobility of the Armed Forces However, the armed forces seem to remain focused on the symmetrical confrontation and it appears to take much trouble to give answers 6 Expression used during the meetings “Assises de l’avenir” that were held at the Army General Staff between the 17th and 19th of January 2005. 26 ~ 3/2006 De fait, si le constat d’une rupture stratégique s’impose, les armées peuvent sembler ne pas en tirer les leçons, ce qui conduit à remettre en cause la pertinence de l’outil militaire au regard des enjeux de la sécurité globale. La rupture stratégique Affirmer que la page du XX ème si è cle est aujourd’hui tournée relève du truisme, au même titre que l’évocation de ces deux symboles marquants que sont la chute du mur de Berlin et les attentats du 11 septembre. Le monde a donc changé de logique et à la crainte de l’affrontement bipolaire, symétrique, s’est substitué celle de menaces diffuses, multiples et mondialisées, c’est-à-dire ignorant les frontières et l’espace. Il est ainsi possible de parler de rupture stratégique dans la mesure où la nature de la menace comme son champ d’application ont changé. Dans ce contexte, c’est le défi posé par les modes d’action asymétriques qui focalise l’attention. Par ce biais, des acteurs divers peuvent tenir tête aux armées les mieux équipées et les mieux entraînées, contournant leur puissance par le recours aux stratégies indirectes, comme le terrorisme mais aussi la manipulation de l’information et des foules. Certaines analyses parlent ainsi du “pouvoir égalisateur”6 de l’asymétrie, comparant de fait implicitement les conséquences du recours à cette stratégie, au bouleversement induit par l’atome. Il est cependant nécessaire de souligner que l’existence de ce mode d’action est évidemment plus ancienne. L’asymétrie s’apparente par bien des aspects à la guerre révolutionnaire. Elle partage en particulier avec cette notion la place centrale accordée à la population en tant qu’enjeu principal du combat. La rupture réside donc dans le fait que cette menace passe aujourd’hui au premier plan et apparaît comme le défi majeur. L’immobilisme apparent des armées Pourtant, les forces armées semblent rester focalisées sur l’affrontement symétrique et paraissent avoir le plus grand mal à apporter 6 Expression employée lors des “Assises de l’avenir” qui se sont tenues à l’EMAT du 17 au 19 janvier 2005. College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity to the problem arising from global security. The first symptom of this difficult adaptation is undoubtedly maintaining the equipment meant to the symmetrical fight. Raufer and Bauer underline thus that “even in 2003, the Pentagon makes use of 70% of a much bigger budget for the preparation of conventional war, with “basic tools” such as aircraft carriers, combat fighters and armoured vehicles”7. For the same reason, General Copel declares himself against using 320 Leclerc tanks or developing Rafale multi-role combat aircrafts. Beyond the excesses of the polemic, it is important to take into account the inevitable inertia of armament programs. Today’s materials were designed in the context of the Cold War and were meant to last for long. In addition to the inertia related to armament programs, the opposition to progress can also appear as having an intellectual nature. If there are a lot of reflections on this topic in the military areas, the development of a concept for reorganisation appears to be more difficult. It is what one could call a partitioned diagnosis on the need for resorting to actions other than military to counter asymmetry. But the details of implementation are more problematic. The fact that efforts are being made so that the subject of the exercises deviates from the traditional scheme of the operations of force stands proof for that. In the same respect, simulation encounters difficulties in modelling the action of non-conventional means and their repercussion on the enemy and population8. The concept of effect-based operation might seem an attempt to answer to that. Inspired by the Anglo-Saxon La guerre ne fait que commencer, Alain Bauer Xavier Raufer, Folio documents. 8 In France, the difficulties encountered in the use of the Spectrum software are illustrative This American software must make it possible for the simulation of asymmetrical conflicts, by particularly measuring the indices of satisfaction related to an action or another (press release, construction of schools ... ). This psychological impact is however much more difficult to quantify than the physical consequences of the action of an armed force. Lastly, these repercussions are done on a timeline not very compatible with the work and operating cycle of the PC. 7 des réponses au problème posé par la sécurité globale. Le premier symptôme de cette difficile adaptation est sans doute dans la permanence d’équipements dédiés au combat symétrique. Messieurs Raufer et Bauer soulignent ainsi qu’en “2003 encore, le Pentagone utilise 70% d’un budget en forte augmentation à la préparation de guerre conventionnelles, avec comme “outils” de base, le porte-avions, l’avion de combat type “chasseur” et les engins blindés”7. C’est à ce titre aussi que le général Copel s’insurge contre le maintien de 320 chars Leclerc ou le développement du Rafale. Au-delà des excès de la polémique, il importe de prendre en compte l’inévitable inertie des programmes d’armement. Les matériels d’aujourd’hui ont été conçus dans le contexte de la guerre froide et sont appelés à durer. Mais outre l’inertie liée aux programmes d’armement, l’immobilisme peut également apparaître d’ordre intellectuel. Si les réflexions se multiplient sur ce thème dans les enceintes militaires, l’élaboration d’une réorganisation apparaît plus difficile. Il existe ce que l’on pourrait appeler un diagnostic partagé sur la nécessité de recourir à des actions autres que militaires pour contrer l’asymétrie. Mais les modalités de mise en œuvre sont plus problématiques. En témoigne le fait que le thème des exercices peine à s’écarter du schéma classique des opérations de vive force. Dans le même ordre d’idée, la simulation se heurte à la difficulté de modéliser les actions des moyens non conventionnels et leur répercussion sur l’adversaire et la population 8. Le concept d’opération basée sur les effets pourrait 7 La guerre ne fait que commencer, Alain Bauer Xavier Raufer, Folio documents. 8 En France, les difficultés rencontrées dans l’utilisation du logiciel Spectrum en sont une illustration. Ce logiciel américain doit permettre de simuler des conflits asymétriques, en mesurant notamment les indices de satisfaction liés à telle ou telle action (communiqué de presse, construction d’école …). Cet impact psychologique est cependant beaucoup plus difficilement quantifiable que les conséquences physiques de l’action d’une force. Enfin, ces répercussions se font sur une échelle de temps peu compatible avec le cycle de travail et d’entraînement des PC. 27 Romanian Military Thinking conceptions, this one aims at combining the ensemble of military and non-military actions to obtain a strategic result on the enemy or the general situation. Iraq certainly represents a privileged field for the application of this concept. It is undoubtedly premature to learn all the lessons out of it. But the difficulties the Americans come across on this theatre testify to at least a hazardous implementation. Raising the Question of Defence Systems ~ 3/2006 apparaître comme une tentative de réponse. Inspiré de réflexions anglo-saxonnes, celui-ci vise à combiner l’ensemble des actions militaires et non militaires pour obtenir un résultat stratégique sur l’ennemi ou sur la situation générale. L’Irak constitue certainement un champ d’application privilégié de ce concept. Il est sans doute prématuré d’en tirer tous les enseignements. Mais les difficultés américaines sur ce théâtre témoignent au moins d’une mise en œuvre hasardeuse. La remise en cause ’ des systemes de défense These reports result in putting into question the military instrument such as it was conceived, in a context of global security. “The gigantic military apparatus held by the powers (...) do they correspond to the situation ?”9. The question raised by David echoes the remark made by Hashim10, Professor of strategy at the US Naval War College, who wonders about the relevance of the American forces distribution in Iraq when facing an under-equipped and under-trained army. The latter stresses that the rapid military victory is not a guarantee of success. Thus, the question arises as far as the utility of the heavy investments in defence is concerned, even if the limited military capacity of the so-called “alarming” countries does not seem to justify such an effort. If it is natural to preserve certain superiority, dissymmetry can appear excessive for a number of observers. It is ineffective when dealing with the asymmetry circumventing a crushing superiority and especially in combating vulnerabilities that are not of a military nature. In addition, the military instrument designed this way does not consent to an opposition towards the diffuse threats that can influence the theatre at national level. The conclusions drawn from this report are that the armed forces have not adapted to the strategic rupture. General Norlain thus pleads in favour of a “strategy Ces constats conduisent à remettre en cause l’outil militaire tel qu’il est conçu, dans un contexte de sécurité globale. “Les gigantesques appareils militaires détenus par les puissances (…) correspondent-ils à la situation ?”9. La question posée par M. David vient en écho de la remarque faite par M. Hashim10, professeur de stratégie à l’Ecole de Guerre Navale des Etats-Unis, qui s’interrogeait sur la pertinence du déploiement de force américain en Irak face à une armée sous-équipée et sous-entrainée. Ce dernier soulignait que la rapide victoire militaire n’avait pas été pour autant un gage de succ è s. La question se pose donc de l’utilité des lourds investissements de défense, alors même que la capacité militaire limitée des pays dits “préoccupants” ne semble pas justifier un tel effort. S’il est naturel de conserver une supériorité, la dissymétrie peut apparaître excessive pour nombre d’observateurs. Surtout, elle est inefficace face à l’asymétrie qui contourne une supériorité devenue écrasante, pour s’attaquer à des vulnérabilités qui ne sont pas d’ordre militaire. Par ailleurs, l’outil militaire ainsi conçu ne permet pas non plus de s’opposer aux menaces diffuses qui peuvent peser sur le théâtre national. Les conclusions tirées de ce constat sont que les forces armées ne se sont pas adaptées à la rupture 9 Sécurité: l’apr è s-New York, La bibliothè que du citoyen, Presse de science po. 10 Conference delivered on September 28, 2004, in Salle des Conseils, Place du Panthéon. 9 Sécurité: l’apr è s-New York, La bibliothèque du citoyen, Presse de science po. 10 Conférence donnée le 28 septembre 2004, à la salle des conseils, place du Panthéon. 28 College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity of persuasion”11, which, at operational level, “involves a major change of our defence system”. In the same review, General La Maisonneuve proclaimes that, “if the 20th century Defence System condemned itself because of its potential for danger, its cost and its inefficiency, it leaves us to transform it into another system, which would finally favour security”. And that leads him to further affirm that the protection mission must be reconsidered depending on the function of the external action, which does not justify the existence of an “armada ready to invade, conquer, deliver hypothetical and especially chimerical battles”. General Copel follows the same logic when he declares against useless military expenditure, which would be better employed to the profit of civil security. These various analyses agree on the need for decreasing the means intended for confrontation to the benefit of the tools that make it possible for the entire spectrum of asymmetrical threats to be apprehended. Th e s t r e s s w o u l d b e t h u s l a i d o n counterintelligence, information, NRBC defence12 and civil protection in general. To meet the requirements of a global security, the military instrument should focus on asymmetrical threats. It would have to change its nature so that it would not be its capacity to unleash violence anymore, but its capacity to manage chaos. Such an evolution can appear dangerous in more than one way. A Dangerous Approach stratégique. Le général Norlain plaide ainsi en faveur d’une “stratégie de la persuasion”11, qui, sur le plan opérationnel, “implique un changement profond de notre syst è me de défense”. Dans la même revue, le général de La Maisonneuve proclame que “si le système de Défense du XXème siècle s’est condamné lui-même par sa dangerosité, son coût et son inefficacité, il nous appartient de le transformer en un autre, qui privilégierait enfin la sécurité”. Ce qui le conduit à affirmer plus loin que la mission de protection doit être reconsidérée au dépend de la fonction d’action extérieure, qui ne justifie pas l’existence d’une “armada prête à envahir, à conquérir, à livrer d’hypothétiques et surtout chimériques batailles”. Le général Copel suit la même logique lorsqu’il s’insurge contre des dépenses militaires inutiles, qui seraient mieux employées au profit de la sécurité civile. Ces différentes analyses s’accordent ainsi sur la nécessité de diminuer les moyens conçus pour la confrontation au profit d’outils permettant d’appréhender tout le spectre des menaces asymétriques. L’accent serait ainsi mis sur le renseignement, l’information, la défense NRBC12 et la protection civile en général. L’outil militaire devrait donc se recentrer sur la menace asymétrique pour répondre aux exigences d’une sécurité globale. Il devrait d’une certaine façon, changer de nature. Celle-ci ne serait plus son aptitude à délivrer la violence, mais glisserait vers sa capacité à gérer le chaos. Une telle évolution peut se révéler dangereuse à plus d’un titre. Une approche dangereuse This approach is dangerous first of all because the dissymmetry of forces compensates for other weaknesses, then because the soldier does not have to become involved on the ground of asymmetry, and finally and especially because today threats cannot occult the tomorrow ones. Cette approche est dangereuse d’abord parce que la dissymétrie des forces compense d’autres faiblesses, ensuite parce que le militaire n’a pas à se laisser entraîner sur le terrain de l’asymétrie, enfin et surtout parce que les menaces d’aujourd’hui ne peuvent occulter celles de demain. AGIR Review, no. 13, winter 2003. Nuclear, Radiological, Bacteriological and Chemical. Revue AGIR no. 13, hiver 2003. Nucléaire, Radiologique, Bactériologique et Chimique. 11 12 11 12 29 Romanian Military Thinking Maintaining Dissymmetry ~ 3/2006 Maintenir la dissymétrie Dissymmetry shocks through the fact that the ratio of forces between the power of Western armies and that of their current or potential opponents appears disproportionate. But one ignores the fact that this power comes to compensate for other weaknesses. The first one is of a demographic nature. The power of weapons and technology comes to mitigate the weakness represented by their small number. Thus, the overwhelming American superiority during the second Iraq War would have enabled them to gain peace more easily, if the staff had known to benefit from the stupor caused by their victory. Battalion Chief Goya speaks on this subject about “a few weeks timeframe when everything was possible”13 and further on he underlines the disproportion between the number of American effectives and the population to be controlled. The American Army, on the other hand, is used to correct this lack of effectives by resorting to the reserves and the National Guard and by increasing the number of infantrymen. Battalion Chief Goya also underlines that the debate on conscription is somehow revived. But these solutions are only palliatives and this problem of effectives is actually insurmountable, because of the Western demographic vulnerability. In this respect, there is a ratio of forces which disfavours these countries and which can be balanced only by the power of their armies. The insufficiency regarding the number is thus partly corrected through technology, which allows for counterintelligence and speed of action, through firepower, which neutralises and dissuades and through cladding, which protects the rare, therefore precious soldiers. The second weakness is related to time. Western societies live on a short cycle, time is accelerated there by the rate of elections and the fickleness of the public opinion, subject to immediate information. It is not the case of traditional societies that live in the theatres La dissymétrie choque en ce que le rapport de force parait disproportionné entre la puissance des armées occidentales et celle de leurs adversaires actuels ou potentiels. Mais c’est ignorer le fait que cette puissance vient compenser d’autres faiblesses. La première d’entre elle est d’ordre démographique. La puissance des armes et de la technologie vient pallier la faiblesse du nombre. C’est ainsi que l’écrasante supériorité américaine pendant la seconde guerre d’Irak aurait pu leur permettre de gagner plus facilement la paix, si l’état-major avait su profiter de la stupeur provoquée par leur victoire. Le chef de bataillon Goya parle à ce sujet d’une “fenêtre d’opportunité de quelques semaines pendant laquelle tout était possible”13 et souligne plus loin la disproportion entre les effectifs américains et le volume de la population à contrôler. L’armée américaine s’emploie par ailleurs à corriger ce manque d’effectif par le recours aux réserves et à la garde nationale et l’augmentation du nombre de fantassins. Le chef de bataillon Goya souligne également que le débat sur la conscription s’en trouve ranimé. Mais ces solutions ne sont que des palliatifs et ce problème d’effectif est en réalité incontournable, du fait de la faiblesse démographique des pays occidentaux. Il y a bien l à un rapport de force qui joue en défaveur de ces derniers et qui ne peut être compensé que par la puissance de leurs armées. L’insuffisance du nombre est alors en partie corrigée par la technologie, qui permet le renseignement et la rapidité d’action, la puissance de feu, qui neutralise et dissuade et le blindage, qui protége des soldats rares, donc chers. La deuxième faiblesse est celle du rapport au temps. Les sociétés occidentales vivent sur un cycle court, le temps y est accéléré par le rythme des élections et la versatilité des opinions publiques, soumises à l’information immédiate. Ce n’est pas le cas des sociétés 13 La guerre après la guerre, in Doctrine, special issue, March 2005. 13 La guerre après la guerre, in Doctrine, numéro spécial de mars 2005. 30 College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity o f o p e r a t i o n . P a t r i c k C h a u v e l 14, w a r correspondent, testifies to this shift by reporting that “tomorrow” means “another day” in many countries of Asia or Africa. To compensate for this weakness, the armies can only rely on the “lightning effect”15, which involves maintaining consequent forces. In this respect, the Iraqi campaign is a good illustration of this vulnerability facing time. Even when the offensive has been carried at a speed unequalled in history, the media poses the question of the possible engulfment when progress takes more than 48 hours to occur. The dissymmetry required and maintained by the armed forces is not the result of an expensive blindness, but of the need for mitigating Western societies vulnerabilities regarding time and demography. Do not Follow the Enemy on the Asymmetry Field traditionnelles vivant sur les théâtres d’opération. Patrick Chauvel14, correspondant de guerre, témoigne ainsi de ce décalage en rapportant que “demain” signifie “un autre jour” dans bien des pays d’Asie ou d’Afrique. Pour compenser cette faiblesse, les armées ne peuvent que miser sur la “foudroyance” 1 5 , ce qui implique d’entretenir des forces conséquentes. Là encore, la campagne irakienne est une bonne illustration de cette vulnérabilité face au temps. Alors même que l’offensive s’est déroulée à une vitesse inégalée dans l’Histoire, les médias se sont posé la question d’un éventuel enlisement, lorsque la progression a marqué le pas pendant 48 heures. La dissymétrie recherchée et entretenue par les forces armées ne procède donc pas d’un coûteux aveuglement, mais de la nécessité de pallier la vulnérabilité des sociétés occidentales face au temps et à la démographie. Focusing the military instrument on the current asymmetrical threat presents another danger: not using the suitable military instrument and thus compromising it, without acquiring the anticipated result. The specificity of the military instrument consists in imposing a political will through legitimate violence. This resort to violence could be effective in short-term in the asymmetrical fight. But it will lose its legitimacy and is thus likely to be counterproductive in the long term, by causing the hostility of a population that represents the stake of the fight. It is this danger that the Israeli Army engaged in the fight against Palestinian terrorism is confronted with. “In the subversive war, terrorism aims at causing the decisive rupture of communities and chaos by establishing a climate of fear through releasing a “violence – repression” spiral. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict does not make an exception from this rule. One should notice that Centrer l’outil militaire sur la menace asymétrique présente un autre danger: ne pas utiliser l’outil approprié et donc compromettre celui-ci, tout en n’obtenant pas le résultat escompté. La spécificité de l’outil militaire est l’imposition par la violence légitime d’une volonté politique. Ce recours à la violence pourra être efficace à court terme dans la lutte asymétrique. Mais il perdra sa légitimité et risque donc d’être contreproductif sur le long terme, en provoquant l’hostilité d’une population qui est l’enjeu de la lutte. C’est ce danger auquel est confrontée l’armée israélienne engagée dans la lutte contre le terrorisme palestinien. “Dans la guerre subversive, le terrorisme vise à provoquer la rupture décisive des communautés et le chaos en instaurant un climat de peur par le déclenchement 14 Rapporteur de guerre, Patrick Chauvel, Oh ! éditions, 2003. 15 “The purpose of the lightning effect is not to destroy everything, but to break the enemy’s rhythm (...)”, definition inherited from Admiral Labouerie and mentioned in Engagements futurs des forces terrestres. 14 Rapporteur de guerre, Patrick Chauvel, Oh ! éditions, 2003. 15 “Le but de la foudroyance est non de tout détruire, mais de briser le rythme de l’adversaire (…)”, définition héritée de l’amiral Labouerie et donnée dans Engagements futurs des forces terrestres. Ne pas suivre l’adversaire sur le terrain de l’asymétrie 31 Romanian Military Thinking at present, in spite of undeniable tactical success, this vicious circle seems far from breaking out”16. The same author underlines that “In a subversive war, the coercive military action cannot lead to victory by itself and, on the contrary, certain ways of action appear counterproductive in medium term when they cause the alienation of populations”. Further on, he provides the example of “targeted eliminations”, to stress that tactical effectiveness has much more debatable strategic and political consequences. The paradox is that while going on the ground of subversion, the military instrument discredits those who employ it and deprive the fight of its direction. One cannot justify his combat through the ideals he violates. The detractors of the United States are right to highlight the contradiction between the promotion of democracy and the inevitable excesses of armed forces that are assigned tasks proper to intelligence or police forces. In Algeria, France underwent the experience of the military instrument being perverted, as it was assigned responsibilities that were out of its sphere of competence. Considering that the Algerian War was won on the military level can be dangerous as the same errors may be repeated. The political defeat and the discredit which the methods employed cast upon “the fatherland of human rights” are left behind. In addition to the danger to compromise the result, there is that of discrediting the instrument. In her book, Escadrons de la mort, l’école française17 (Death squads, the French school), the journalist Marie Monique Robin analyses how delegating political responsibilities to soldiers could cause serious drifts. The journalist reports that, in 1959, General of Brébisson chaired a commission regarding “legality – subversive war” whose report concluded: “To the concept of revolutionary war corresponds that of total strategy, which interests the various branches of the country’s activity: political, financial, economic, psychological, Un RETEX à ne pas manquer: Intifada Al AQsa, in Doctrine, special issue, May 2004. 17 Escadrons de la mort, l’école française, Marie Monique Robin, Editions La Découverte, Paris 2003. 16 32 ~ 3/2006 d’une spirale “violence – répression”. Le conflit israélo-palestinien n’échappe pas à cette règle. Force est de constater qu’à l’heure actuelle, malgré d’indéniables succès tactiques, ce cercle vicieux semble loin d’être enrayé”16. Le même auteur souligne aussi que “Dans une guerre subversive, l’action militaire coercitive ne peut aboutir seule à la victoire et certains modes d’action paraissent au contraire contreproductifs à moyen terme quand ils provoquent l’aliénation des populations”. Plus loin, il s’appuie sur l’exemple des “éliminations ciblées”, pour souligner que l’efficacité tactique a des conséquences stratégiques et politiques beaucoup plus discutables. Le paradoxe est qu’en allant sur le terrain de la subversion, l’outil militaire discrédite celui qui l’emploie et prive la lutte de son sens. On ne peut justifier son combat par des idéaux que l’on viole. Les détracteurs des Etats-Unis ont beau jeu de souligner la contradiction entre la promotion de la démocratie et les excès inévitables d’une armée, à qui l’on confie des tâches de police ou d’information. La France en Algérie a fait l’expérience de la perversion de l’outil militaire, quand celui-ci se voit assigner des responsabilités qui sortent de son champ de compétence. Il y a aujourd’hui un réel danger de reproduire les mêmes erreurs, en considérant que la guerre d’Algérie fut gagnée sur le plan militaire. C’est oublier la défaite politique et le discrédit que les méthodes employées ont jeté sur “la patrie des droits de l’homme”. En sus du danger de compromettre le résultat, il y a celui de corrompre l’outil. Dans son livre Escadrons de la mort, l’école française 17 , la journaliste Marie Monique Robin analyse comment la délégation de responsabilités politiques à des militaires a pu provoquer de graves dérives. Mme Robin rapporte qu’en 1959, le général de Brébisson présida une commission “légalité – guerre subversive” dont le rapport conclut: “A la notion de guerre 16 Un RETEX à ne pas manquer: Intifada Al AQsa, in Doctrine, numéro spécial de mai 2004. 17 Escadrons de la mort, l’école française, Marie Monique Robin, Editions La Découverte, Paris 2003. College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity military, legal (...). That is why it is important for the responsibility for decision to be unique”. Marie Robin deduces that this coordination was obviously to be done under the aegis of the military. The author of this article has not been able to check up to now if this last point is part of the commission’s conclusions. But this is quite the issue. If it is indeed necessary to involve various “branches of the country’s activity”, their coordination must belong to the political branch, since the subversive, revolutionary or asymmetrical war is, above all, a political war. However, the soldier will make the military effectiveness (against the guerrilla) prevail in front of the costs of other aspects. In addition, while becoming a political actor by mistake, he can be tempted to take hold of this responsibility and, consequently, to refuse the authority of the political instrument when the latter wants to change the orientation of the action based on certain considerations that exceed the framework of the operations in progress. In Algeria, that involved the well-known excesses and the final failure. Today, it should be stressed that in parallel with the reflections mentioned above regarding the need for the military instrument to take into account the entire range of global security issues, the armed forces wonder about the means of concretely answering to this challenge. There exists the temptation to modernise the methods of revolutionary war. The film La bataille d’Alger (Battle of Algiers) was screened in the United States in certain military areas. Others declare themselves in favour of the inevitable character of torture. The globalisation of threats creates confusion propitious to skidding and can finally constitute into a threat to democracy. What about Tomorrow ? The last mentioned risk is not the least: by insisting on asking for an in-depth reorganisation of the military instrument around global security, it is its capacity to become engaged in symmetrical conflicts of high intensity révolutionnaire correspond celle de stratégie totale qui intéresse les différentes branches de l’activité du pays, politique, financiè re, économique, psychologique, militaire, judiciaire (...). C’est pourquoi il importe que la responsabilité de décision soit unique”. Mme Robin en déduit que cette coordination devait évidemment se faire sous l’égide des militaires. L’auteur de cet article n’a pu vérifier si ce dernier point fait partie des conclusions de la commission. Mais c’est bien l à que le bât blesse. S’il est effectivement nécessaire d’impliquer différentes “branches de l’activité du pays”, leur coordination doit être le fait du politique, parce que la guerre subversive, révolutionnaire ou asymétrique est avant tout une guerre politique. Or le militaire fera primer l’efficacité militaire (contre la guérilla) au dépens des autres aspects. Par ailleurs, en devenant acteur politique par défaut, il peut avoir la tentation de s’approprier cette responsabilité et par conséquent, de refuser l’autorité du politique quand celui-ci voudra infléchir son action, au nom de considérations qui dépassent le cadre des opérations en cours. Ce qui entraîna en Algérie les débordements que l’on connaît et l’échec final. Aujourd’hui, il faut souligner qu’en parallèle des réflexions évoquées plus haut, sur la nécessité pour l’outil militaire de prendre en compte tout le spectre de la sécurité globale, des armées s’interrogent sur les moyens de répondre concrètement à ce défi. La tentation existe de remettre au goût du jour les méthodes de la guerre révolutionnaire. Le film La bataille d’Alger a ainsi été projeté aux Etats-Unis dans certaines enceintes militaires. D’autres concluent au caractère inévitable de la torture. Globaliser la menace crée une confusion propice aux dérapages et peut finalement constituer une menace pour la démocratie. Et demain ? Le dernier risque n’est pas le moindre: en prônant une réorganisation en profondeur de l’outil militaire autour de la sécurité globale, c’est son aptitude à s’engager dans des conflits symétriques de haute intensité qui peut être 33 Romanian Military Thinking that can be compromised in long term. However, the stress laid on the asymmetrical risk today, in the absence of another apparent threat, led to concealing certain current tensions, which could lead to confrontations much more dangerous otherwise. It is not the question here to draw up an exhaustive and catastrophic panorama of the potential sources of future conflicts. But it is nevertheless important to stress that the world carries the germ of some alarming imbalances: exhaustion of oil resources in ten years, the economic explosion of China or the economic and demographic imbalances are only a few examples. It takes twenty years to carry out a program of armament in long term. Bauer and Raufer’s remarks on the American Army continuing to purchase tanks and aircraft carriers does not take into account these realities. The disappearance of the immediate risk of a traditional conflict being added to the spectacular aspect on the attacks on September 11 undoubtedly emphasised asymmetrical risks. Perhaps today it is the time to make their importance relative as far as future threats are concerned. Since the end of the 20th century, the world has undergone amazing and strongly mediatised upheavals. When confronted with this rupture, it is better to wonder about changing the military instrument. But this step should not result in denying its specificity with the pretext of making it the key element of global security. That would initially mean ignoring the weaknesses of the present, which force the Western nations not to reduce their military capacities. It would also mean forgetting the drifts of a recent past. It would finally mean not being aware of a future of which no one can say it would be the bearer of some major confrontations or not. “There are only two forces in the world: the sword and the spirit. In the long run, the sword will always be conquered by the spirit”18. The stake for the Western democracies facing the asymmetrical war today is perhaps knowing to use the sword without perverting the spirit. 18 34 Napoleon. ~ 3/2006 durablement compromise. Or l’accent mis aujourd’hui sur le risque asymétrique, en l’absence d’autre menace apparente, conduit à occulter certaines tensions actuelles, qui pourraient déboucher sur des confrontations autrement plus dangereuses. Il ne s’agit pas ici de dresser un panorama exhaustif et catastrophiste des sources potentielles de conflits futurs. Mais il importe quand même de souligner que le monde porte en germe des déséquilibres préoccupants: l’épuisement dans une dizaine d’années des ressources pétrolières, l’explosion économique de la Chine ou les déséquilibres économiques et démographiques en sont des exemples parmi d’autres. Il faut vingt ans pour mener un programme d’armement à terme. La remarque de messieurs Bauer et Raufer sur la poursuite d’achat de chars et de porte-avions par l’armée américaine ne tient pas compte de ces réalités. La disparition du risque immédiat d’un conflit classique s’ajoutant à l’aspect spectaculaire des attentats du 11 septembre a sans doute donné trop de relief aux risques asymétriques. Il est peut-être temps aujourd’hui d’en relativiser l’importance au regard des menaces futures. Le monde a connu depuis la fin du XXème siècle des bouleversements d’autant plus stupéfiants qu’ils ont été fortement médiatisés. Face à cette rupture, il est sain de s’interroger sur l’adaptation de l’outil militaire. Mais cette démarche ne doit pas conduire à en nier la spécificité au prétexte d’en faire l’élément clé de la sécurité globale. Ce serait d’abord méconnaître les faiblesses du présent, qui imposent aux nations occidentales de ne pas amoindrir leurs capacités militaires. Ce serait aussi oublier les dérives d’un passé pourtant récent. Ce serait enfin ignorer un avenir, dont nul ne peut dire qu’il ne sera pas porteur d’affrontement majeur. “Il n’y a que deux puissances au monde, le sabre et l’esprit. A la longue, le sabre est toujours battu par l’esprit”18. L’enjeu pour les démocraties occidentales face à la guerre asymétrique est peut-être aujourd’hui de savoir utiliser le sabre sans pervertir l’esprit. 18 Napoléon. PACIFICATION PACIFICATION ~ the French School ~ ~ l’ecole ~ francaise , Curious era: life expectancy Curieuse époque: l’espérance rises but each notices that the de vie s’allonge mais chacun time to live is shorter and shorter. constatera au vu de son emploi Everywhere, complexity is du temps que l’on prend de moins invoked as a characteristic en moins de temps pour vivre. of current times, but the time Partout, la complexité est invoquée devoted to reflection diminishes comme caract è re des temps actuels, mais le temps consacré as a painful skin. Militaries à la réflexion diminue comme do not escape this race against peau de chagrin. Les militaires the clock: it is necessary to rake n’échappent pas à cette course wide, but one sometimes forgets contre la montre: il faut ratisser to plough deeply ! To remain large, mais on oublie parfois in the rhythm, one sometimes de labourer profond ! Pour rester forgets where he comes from, Major in the absence of knowledge Philippe Savary de BEAUREGARD dans le rythme, on en vient ~The French Army ~ parfois à oublier d’où l’on vient about where to go. Animated by the feeling of urgency, one is tempted à défaut de savoir toujours où l’on va. Animés to inspire himself from the Anglo-Saxons par le sentiment de l’urgence il est tentant de concepts regarding civil-military operations, s’inspirer des concepts anglo-saxons d’opérations psychological actions or stabilisation: when civilo-militaires, d’actions psychologiques ou de the time urges it, it is more effective to translate stabilisation: quand le temps presse, traduire than to search for something. There is, est plus efficace que chercher. Il existe pourtant nevertheless, a French thought on pacification, une pensée française de la pacification, forged at the end of the 19th century under the forgée à la fin du XIXème siècle sous l’impulsion impulse of Marshal Gallieni, Marshal Lyautey du maréchal Gallieni, du maréchal Lyautey and General Pennequin. Value does not await et du général Pennequin. La valeur n’attendant the number of years, thus they were colonels pas le nombre des années, ils étaient alors or majors when they were planning and testing colonels ou commandants lorsqu’ils pensèrent this politics of pacification on the conquered et mirent en œuvre cette politique de pacification territories in Tonkin or in Madagascar. des terres conquises au Tonkin ou à Madagascar. Why does the Anglo-Saxon doctrine exercise Pourquoi la doctrine anglo-saxonne exercesuch a fascination ? Cannot we be inspired by t-elle une telle fascination ? Ne pourrait-on pas the French experience, when it comes to the s’inspirer aujourd’hui pour relever les défis challenges raised by stabilisation ? This era is de la stabilisation de cette expérience française ? not one of conquests anymore; the context has L’époque n’est plus à la conquête; le contexte changed and the considerable acceleration a changé et l’accélération considérable du temps of time is a true upheaval for reflection as well as est un véritable bouleversement pour la réflexion 35 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 for decision and action. It is necessary to avoid two obstacles: the forgetfulness of an ideological heritage and of know-how in a variety of domains and the transposition of an idealised past into a burning current event. It is possible to distinguish, in this work of pacification, some major principles that remain pertinent. In addition, some personality traits of these big leaders are also offered for reflection to imagine original solutions to the contemporary challenges. Colonel Lyautey gives a solution in his brief work “The Colonial Role of the Army”1, which summarises the principles of the French School of Pacification: “The military occupation consists less in military operations and more in an organisation that works”. The tone is given yet, which principles can be considered effective sources ? In the first place, Lyautey as well as Gallieni privilege the recourse to indirect administration as a model of organisation. This structure offers a big flexibility and avoids overturning ancestral habits that used to have their intelligence and their logic. Arriving on a territory or a theatre of operations means being in line with history. Instead of leaving the former leaders aside, it is preferable to use them: “To govern with the Chinese mandarin and not against the mandarin … So, do not spoil any tradition, do not change any habit, we are told that, in all societies, there is a class born to govern, without which one can do nothing, and a class to be governed, which puts the governing class in its service”2. Lyautey understood that the population adhesion is the main objective to attain the desired effect. It is therefore necessary to show respect for traditions and habits. He also recommends renouncing all taxation and avoiding any administrative complications. It is necessary to be generous, he says. Although Gallieni was confronted with a different situation, in Madagascar, he remained true to the principle of weakest change. Political reasons forced him to depose the queen. Not only comme pour la décision et l’action. Il faut éviter deux écueils: l’oubli d’un patrimoine doctrinal et de savoir-faire d’une grande richesse et la transposition d’un passé idéalisé à une actualité brûlante. Il est possible de distinguer, dans cette œuvre de pacification, quelques principes majeurs qui demeurent pertinents. En outre, quelques traits de personnalité de ces grands chefs donnent aussi à réfléchir pour imaginer les solutions originales aux défis contemporains. Une formule du colonel Lyautey dans son court ouvrage “Du rôle colonial de l’armée”1 résume les principes de l’école française de la pacification: “l’occupation militaire consiste moins en opérations militaires qu’en une organisation qui marche”. Le ton est donné mais quels principes sont sources d’efficacité ? En premier lieu, Lyautey comme Gallieni privilégient le recours à l’administration indirecte comme modèle d’organisation. Cette structure offre une grande souplesse et évite de bouleverser des habitudes ancestrales qui ont leur intelligence et leur logique. Arriver sur un territoire ou un théâtre d’opérations, c’est s’inscrire dans une histoire. Au lieu d’écarter les anciens cadres dirigeants, il est préférable de s’en servir: “gouverner avec le mandarin et non contre le mandarin … Donc, ne froisser aucune tradition, ne changer aucune habitude, nous dire qu’il y a dans toute société une classe dirigeante née pour diriger, sans laquelle on ne fait rien, et une classe à gouverner, mettre la classe dirigeante dans nos intérêts”2. Lyautey a compris que l’adhésion de la population est l’objectif principal pour atteindre l’effet recherché. Il faut donc se montrer respectueux des traditions et des habitudes. Il recommande d’écarter toute fiscalité, de proscrire les complications administratives. Il faut être généreux, dit-il. A Madagascar, Gallieni est confronté à une situation différente mais il conserve le principe du moindre changement. Des raisons politiques l’amènent à déposer la reine. Il s’en acquitte non seulement 1 Lyautey, Du rôle colonial de l’armée, collection Questions du temps présent, Paris, 1931. 2 Lyautey, Lettres du Tonkin et de Madagascar 1894-1899, second edition, Paris, A. Colin, 1921. 1 Lyautey, Du rôle colonial de l’armée, collection Questions du temps présent, Paris, 1931. 2 Lyautey, lettres du Tonkin et de Madagascar 1894-1899, 20 édition, Paris, A. Colin, 1921. 36 College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity did he prove ability in doing it but he also asked his subordinates to use the native administration, as much as possible, in the exercise of administrative power. Thus, the cutting into circles of Imerina, in the centre of the island, followed the trace of the general governments of this territory, as well as that of their subdivisions3. Our two thinkers on Pacification had the same aversion for the French administration, perceived as more rigid than rigorous as it developed a taste for procedure as such and sought to interfere even in the least recesses. Lyautey has not words harsh enough to denounce these administrative excesses as brakes of pacification. To stabilise a country, today as yesterday, one cannot get rid of the past, willing to impose on a society a model that does not fit its legitimate aspirations. In this respect, the will to export the Western democratic model seems sometimes misfit. In this context, Gallieni considers that the action of pacification has, anyway, to respect the rules of classical theatre: place, time and only one action to the orders of only one leader, no matter he is military or civil. He rejects the distinction between political or civil action and the military one. He flays all command structures that omit the fact that the action in force and the political action are always combined. We should not destroy unless we are able to build better and to take care of the country and its inhabitants. The first concern of an officer, after a locality is submitted to him, is its reconstruction. The political action is the most important one and consequently, pacification is planned before the intervention. The conqueror major concern, when confronted with the changes in the field, should be distinguishing between the objectives according to the principle: less to destroy today for more to produce tomorrow. At the school of his commander, in Tonkin, Lyautey writes: “While avec une grande habileté, mais il demande à ses subordonnés, dans l’exercice de leurs pouvoirs administratifs, d’utiliser dans la mesure du possible l’administration indigène. C’est ainsi que le découpage en cercles de l’Imerina, au centre de l’île, a suivi le tracé des gouvernements généraux de ce territoire ainsi que le découpage en subdivisions subalternes3. Nos deux penseurs de la pacification vouent une même aversion pour l’administration française perçue comme plus rigide que rigoureuse, cultivant le goût de la procédure pour elle-même et cherchant à s’immiscer dans les moindres recoins. Lyautey n’a pas de mots assez durs pour dénoncer ces exc è s administratifs comme des freins à la pacification. Pour stabiliser un pays aujourd’hui comme hier, on ne peut pas faire table rase du passé et vouloir imposer à une société un modèle qui ne répond pas à ses aspirations légitimes. A cet égard, la volonté d’exporter le modèle démocratique occidental semble parfois inadaptée. Dans cette perspective, Gallieni estime que l’action de pacification doit, en quelque sorte, respecter les règles du théâtre classique: en lieu, en un temps, une seule action aux ordres d’un seul chef, qu’il soit militaire ou civil. Il refuse la distinction entre action politique ou civile et action militaire. Il fustige toute structure de commandement qui oublie que l’action de force et l’action politique sont toujours combinées. Il ne faut détruire que pour mieux bâtir, ménager le pays et ses habitants. Le premier soin d’un officier, sitôt obtenue la soumission d’un village, est la reconstruction de cette localité. L’action politique est la plus importante et par conséquent, la pacification se planifie avant l’intervention. Le regard du chef conquérant change sur le terrain à conquérir pour discriminer les objectifs selon le principe: moins détruire aujourd’hui pour plus produire demain. A l’école Gallieni described his mission in Madagascar in his work called Rapport d’ensemble de la pacification, l’organisation et la colonisation de Madagascar, published at LAVAUZELLE and available under cote 24511 at CESAT Library. à Madagascar dans un ouvrage intitulé rapport 3 3 Gallieni a rendu compte de sa mission d’ensemble de la pacification, l’organisation et la colonisation de Madagascar, publié chez LAVAUZELLE et disponible sous la côte 24511 à la bibliothè que du CESAT. 37 Romanian Military Thinking taking a reference point, one should especially think about the march established for the next day, so that it could not be taken the same manner”4. This necessity declines itself until the lowest echelons of execution that must constantly act and behave so that they could reflect their concern for anticipation. Soon the student rises above his master, gets self-confident and, solicited to calm the disturbances at the border of Algeria, he addresses to the governor in these terms: “Governor, have the Minister of War to give all my liberty or send me back to Paris. I want what I had in Madagascar and what Gallieni had in Tonkin. I want the unity of my territory … I also want under my orders not only all the military services but also all the political ones, as well as the Intelligence … Everything, and then, I want, in case of emergency, to have the same power as the Minister of War … If you want the pacification of the inhabitants of South Oran, all these are essential”5. An army cannot stabilise a country by itself, although it always brings an essential contribution to it and there must be a unity of the political project that translates into a unity of command, be it military or civil. Today, one could envision that a military commander makes use of not only troops but also of civil actors that are subordinated to him since the first moments of the stabilisation process. Besides, the staff could be civil and could integrate the volume of necessary forces. Too often, the actions are parallel and do not translate a coherent conduct. The requirement of a unity of action does not suffer improvisation. Pacification demands a method at the height of the issue. In Tonkin, the military posts are rationally established, pushed, one by one, towards the final goal, which is the complete occupation of the field that has just been conquered. The officer immediately changes into an administrator, a builder on the ground where he has hoisted the flag until the assured quietness and the solidly established pacification allows for turning 4 5 38 Lyautey, op.cit. Cited by André Maurois in Lyautey, Plon, 1934. ~ 3/2006 de son chef au Tonkin, Lyautey, écrit: “En prenant un repaire, on pense surtout au marché qu’on y établira le lendemain, alors on ne le prend pas de la même façon”4. Cette nécessité se décline jusqu’aux plus bas échelons d’exécution dont les actions et le comportement doivent refléter constamment ce souci d’anticipation. Et bientôt l’élève dépasse le maître, prend de l’assurance et, sollicité pour calmer les troubles aux confins de l’Algérie, il s’adresse en ces termes au gouverneur: “Monsieur le gouverneur, ou faîtes moi donner par le ministre de la guerre toute ma liberté ou renvoyez moi à Paris. Je veux ce que j’avais à Madagascar, ce que Gallieni avait au Tonkin. Je veux l’unité de mon territoire … Je veux aussi sous mes ordres non seulement tous les services militaires mais aussi tous les services politiques, les officiers de renseignement … Tout, et puis je veux en cas d’urgence pouvoir correspondre directement avec le ministre de la guerre … Si vous voulez la pacification du sud-oranais, c’est indispensable”5. Une armée ne peut pas stabiliser seule un pays, mais elle apporte toujours une contribution essentielle et il doit y avoir une unité du projet politique qui se traduise par une unité du commandement qu’il soit militaire ou civil. Aujourd’hui, on pourrait envisager qu’un chef militaire dispose de troupes mais aussi d’acteurs civils qui lui soient subordonnés dans les premiers temps de la stabilisation. Au-delà , le commandement pourrait être civil et intégrer le volume de forces nécessaires.Trop souvent, les actions sont parall è les et ne traduisent pas une ligne de conduite cohérente. L’exigence d’une unité d’action ne souffre pas l’improvisation. L’entreprise de pacification exige une méthode à la hauteur de l’enjeu. Au Tonkin, les postes militaires sont rationnellement établis, poussés un à un dans un but d’occupation définitive, sur le terrain même qui vient d’être conquis. L’officier se transforme immédiatement en administrateur, en constructeur sur le sol où il a planté le drapeau 4 5 Lyautey, op. cit. Cité par André Maurois dans Lyautey, Plon, 1934. College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity the land back to the normal administration. Gallieni also insists on the necessity for the small posts behind not only to be armed and strengthened but also to be in sufficient number and to enjoy a strong logistical autonomy, especially in munitions. He denies the effectiveness of big posts. In 1898, in Madagascar, his directives explain the chronology of the actions: the front cannot progress in the conquest of new territories to pacify them unless the bottom is completely organised. It is necessary for the bottom to be pushed towards the front by the progresses of the pacification process while relying on the rallied populations that facilitate the pursuit of the action. This method has its advantages, as it protects the households and the population of the country. It requires that officers should have some qualities such as initiative, intelligence, action capacity, prudence, calm and insight. This method is a progressive one and it opposes to the method of the military columns that Lyautey stigmatises for its main shortcoming: to dissociate the military and political action. The column must be employed to the only end of combating a regrouped enemy, solidly installed and threatening the neighbouring regions from this favourable position. Consequently, nowadays, it is impossible for pacification to be undertaken without a credible and strongly hardened military force, able of quick changes of attitude. But, above all, there is a conviction in Lyautey, which he will implement from Tonkin to Morocco, going through Madagascar: it is in vain to carry out operations that only aim at destroying piracy or rebellion as the sole advantage of these insurgent movements is their mobility. The big columns, according to the expression of the time, are devoted to failure by exhaustion. It is thus better to oppose piracy the best of all obstacles: organisation. There is no more effective means than that of “returning the recalcitrant earth to the pirates”6. According to him, it is more effective to cut the grass under the foot of piracy while cleaning the environment 6 Lyautey, op. cit. jusqu’à ce que la tranquillité assurée et la pacification solidement établie permette la remise de ce terrain à l’administration normale. Gallieni insiste aussi sur la nécessité d’armer en arrière des postes de petite taille, largement fortifiés, mais en nombre suffisant et jouissant d’une forte autonomie logistique surtout en munitions. Il dénie l’efficacité des grands postes. En 1898, à Madagascar, ses directives expliquent la chronologie des actions: l’avant ne peut progresser dans la conquête de nouveaux territoires à pacifier que si l’arri è re est complè tement organisé. Il faut être poussé vers l’avant par les progrès de la pacification en s’appuyant sur les populations ralliées qui facilitent la poursuite de l’action. Cette méthode a sa préférence, car elle ménage le pays et la population. Elle exige de la part des officiers des qualités d’initiative, d’intelligence, d’activité, de prudence, de calme et de perspicacité. Cette méthode est progressive et elle s’oppose à la méthode des colonnes militaires dont Lyautey stigmatise le principal défaut: dissocier l’action militaire et politique. La colonne doit être employée dans le seul but de combattre un ennemi regroupé, solidement installé et menaçant à partir de cette position favorable les régions avoisinantes. Par conséquent, il ne saurait encore aujourd’hui, être entrepris de pacification sans une force militaire crédible et fortement aguerrie, capable de changements d’attitude rapides. Mais surtout, Il y a chez Lyautey une conviction qu’il mettra en œuvre du Tonkin au Maroc en passant par Madagascar: il est vain de monter des opérations visant seulement à détruire la piraterie ou la rébellion car ces mouvements insurrectionnels ont toujours l’avantage de la mobilité. Les grosses colonnes, selon l’expression de l’époque sont vouées à l’échec par épuisement. Il vaut mieux opposer ainsi à la piraterie le meilleur des obstacles: l’organisation. Il n’y a pas de moyen plus efficace que de “rendre la terre réfractaire aux pirates” 6 . Selon lui, il est plus efficace 6 Lyautey, op. cit. 39 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 in which it prospers. Or, the insalubrities of the present environment have too often civil symptoms: faint administration, poor communication, weak legitimate authorities, corruption … Sanitation demands though a military and civil action. For the first stage of the action, he recommends occupying the territory with or without fights, to isolate it from refuge zones and external support and, finally, to arm the inhabitants. The second stage will aim at reconstructing the population, at setting up markets and culture as well as at opening roads. The pirate does not return anymore where the land ceased being open. It is then necessary to focus on the ants work to reconstruct the area recaptured from pirates by the division of labour, while dividing the territory in sectors ruled each by an enterprising, full of initiative and subtle leader, to reopen the roads, the markets, to bring the towns back to their previous condition, in a word, to recreate life. Today, one could see in the Anglo-Saxon PRT7 a still shy application of this French intuition. Should we decide upon the centralising will of these two important military commanders ? Certainly not, as neither of them envision pacification without the exercise of the initiative at all echelons of command. What really characterises their eminent qualities of big commanders is the confidence that they are able to inspire to everyone. As many officers, as many procedures, as many varieties of construction, all having the same goal. In Gallieni’s directives the notion of responsibility at the level of each echelon is recurrent. He considers it the key to return to order and security. These directives set up the objectives to be attained but leave the entire initiative of choosing the means and modes of action. It is not so important for him if the commander recruits militiamen, arms the population, mixes inhabitants and the European soldiers for night patrols. First and foremost he has to avoid de couper l’herbe sous le pied de la piraterie en assainissant le milieu sur laquelle elle prospère. Or, l’insalubrité du milieu présente bien souvent des symptômes civils: administration défaillante, voirie dégradée, affaiblissement des autorités légitimes, corruption … L’assainissement exige cependant une action militaire et civile. Pour le premier volet de l’action, il préconise d’occuper le territoire avec ou sans combat, de l’isoler des zones refuges et du soutien extérieur et enfin d’armer les populations. Le second volet visera à la reconstitution de la population, à l’installation des marchés et des cultures ainsi qu’à l’ouverture des routes. Le pirate ne revient plus là où le terrain a cessé d’être vague. Il faut alors se livrer au travail de fourmis de la reconstitution de la zone reprise à la piraterie par la division du travail, en sectionnant le territoire en secteurs commandés chacun par un chef entreprenant, pétri d’initiative et souple, rouvrir les routes, les marchés, rappeler les villages, en un mot recréer la vie. Aujourd’hui, on pourrait voir dans les PRT7 anglo-saxons une application encore bien timide de cette intuition française. Faut-il conclure à la volonté centralisatrice de ces deux grands chefs militaires ? Certainement pas, car l’un comme l’autre n’envisagent pas la pacification sans l’exercice d’une initiative aussi large que possible de tous les échelons de commandement. Ce qui caractérise vraiment leurs éminentes qualités de grand chef, c’est la confiance sans bornes qu’ils ont su inspirer à tout le monde. Autant d’officiers, autant de procédés, autant de variétés de constructions, concourant au même but. Dans les directives de Gallieni revient aussi sans cesse la notion de responsabilité de tous les échelons. C’est pour lui la clé du retour à l’ordre et à la sécurité. Ces directives fixent des objectifs à atteindre mais laissent l’entière initiative des moyens comme des modes d’actions. Peu lui importe que le commandant de cercle recrute des miliciens, arme 7 PRT: Province Reconstruction Team; structures of American inspiration, consisting in security forces that help with the Afghan provinces reconstruction. 7 PRT: Province Reconstruction Team; structures d’inspiration américaine mêlant forces de sécurité et aides à la reconstruction dans les provinces afghanes. 40 College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity pillages and fires that delay pacification. It is necessary here to keep an always-current formula: “In the pacification process, there are no rules, there are only situations”8 . This is therefore the uniqueness of the situations that must inspire the actions to be taken with priority and with the biggest pragmatism. These principles, briefly described here are completed with the evocation of some of the two so different leaders’ character traits. They were known and appreciated in Tonkin, although they hardly resembled. Gallieni used to say about Lyautey: “He is strange, he is noble, he was raised by the Jesuits and nevertheless he is intelligent”9 . The first one, a convinced republican, while the second was said: “This is a monarchist who gave an empire for the republic”. Each of them has a nonconformist dimension. When Lyautey describes Gallieni, he speaks with veneration about the one he considers a conqueror, an explorer, a commander in chief by excellence. He describes him as “the exact opposite of the corporal, of the military, I would say, in the official and stuck in a rut conception of this word in France. The form, the report, the clichés, the very hierarchies do not exist for him anymore. The result is nothing but the unique, and, consequently, the infinite flexibility of means and the free employment of instruments; under no circumstances would he put a colonel under the orders of a more cunning captain. This is all that matters for him”10. In his turn, Lyautey stifles within the military institution and, returning from Tonkin, he is on the verge of depression: “For eight years of my life, from 39 to 47, I dedicated my body and my soul to an idea and to the colonial work, the politics of France outside Europe. But I cannot do it more. All my effort tends to keep me firm, until October 24, 1903, when I am free to retreat … I cannot be resigned with being only a lost force. When, in some months, my brain will get used to thinking of small things and not Lyautey, op.cit. Cited by Hervé de Charrette, Lyautey, JC Lattès, 1997. 10 Lyautey, op. cit. la population, mixe habitants et soldats européens pour des patrouilles de nuit. Il faut éviter avant tout les pillages et les incendies qui retardent la pacification. Il faut ici retenir une formule toujours d’actualité: “dans la pacification, il n’y a pas de règles, il n’y a que des situations”8. C’est donc la singularité des situations qui doit inspirer les actions à mener en priorité avec le plus grand pragmatisme. Ces principes, rapidement décrits ici se complètent par l’évocation de quelques traits de caract è re de deux chefs tr è s différents. Ils se sont connus et appréciées au Tonkin mais pourtant ils ne se ressemblaient guère. Gallieni disait de Lyautey: “c’est étrange, il est noble, il a été élevé par les Jésuites et pourtant il est intelligent”9. Le premier est un républicain convaincu tandis que du second il fut dit: “c’est un monarchiste qui a donné un empire à la république”. On trouve chez l’un comme l’autre une dimension anticonformiste. Quand Lyautey décrit Gallieni, il parle avec vénération de celui qu’il considère comme conquérant, explorateur, chef de guerre par excellence. Il le décrit comme “l’antipode du caporal, je dirai presque du militaire dans la conception officielle et routinière de ce mot en France. La forme, le rapport, les clichés, les hiérarchies même n’existent plus pour lui. Le résultat, c’est son but unique, et comme conséquence l’infinie souplesse des moyens et le libre emploi des instruments; pour un rien, il mettrait un colonel sous les ordres d’un capitaine plus malin. Et il est breveté ! Ce que du reste, il s’en fout”10. Pour sa part, Lyautey étouffe au sein de l’institution militaire et à son retour du Tonkin, il est au bord de la déprime: “Pendant huit ans de ma vie, de 39 ans à 47 ans, je me suis donné corps et âme à une idée et à l’œuvre coloniale, la politique de la France hors d’Europe. Mais je n’en puis plus. Tout mon effort tend à me tenir ferme jusqu’au 24 octobre 1903, date à laquelle j’ai droit à ma retraite … Je ne puis me résigner Lyautey, op. cit. Cité par Hervé de Charrette, Lyautey, JC Lattès, 1997. 10 Lyautey, op. cit. 8 8 9 9 41 Romanian Military Thinking of the important ones, I will have succeeded in the mental state that suits a cavalry colonel. I will not suffer because of it anymore”11. This nonconformism does not express an unbridled fantasy but a character soaked with convictions rooted in a solid culture. The thought related to these two commanders separates from any form of elucubration but it relies on a thirst of knowledge and a true open spirit. No operational activity could divert them from reading works of all nature or from writing a correspondence that reveals a true culture. Their mutual correspondence is full of references to their common readings, to their exchanges of impressions on issues from the famous Revue de Deux Mondes. For Gallieni, politics passes through the deepened knowledge of the populations. He considers an officer that knows populations very good is closer to pacification than one who does not. In fact, he considers that the knowledge of races will determine the political organisation to provide the means to pacify. Finally, these two commanders have a strategic vision of their mission that confers them a high sense of responsibility. They did not act in a clear political framework, so that they could have precise objectives. They knew how to register their mission in a strategic perspective: “To keep Tonkin without considering all the consequences of this occupation, means, as we are already accustomed, to waste men and money. So, which was the initial idea of those that had sent us here ? To simply make it a colony of people, a colony meant for exportation ? No. Their essential objective was the commercial penetration of China through the South … Our reason to be here, in the political general world, is that of being the outposts of the big conflict of dislocation and of civilisation that is suspended on the Extreme-Orient”. Gallieni lets us notice the height of this view, while passing a very skilful policy of communication at the time of Madagascar pacification. Internally, 11 42 Cited by André Maurois in Lyautey, Plon, 1934. ~ 3/2006 à n’être qu’une force perdue. Quand mon cerveau aura, dans quelques mois, pris l’habitude de l’optique des petites choses, et ne pensera plus aux grandes, je serai parvenu à l’état mental qui convient à un colonel de cavalerie. Je ne souffrirai plus du tout”11. Cet anticonformisme n’exprime pas une fantaisie débridée mais un caractère trempé et des convictions enracinées dans une solide culture. La pensée de ces deux chefs écarte toute forme d’élucubration mais elle s’appuie sur une soif de connaissances et une véritable ouverture d’esprit. Nulle activité opérationnelle ne pouvait les détourner de la lecture d’ouvrages de toute nature ou de l’écriture d’une correspondance révélant une véritable culture. Leur correspondance mutuelle fourmille de références à leurs lectures communes, à leurs échanges d’impressions sur des articles de la célè bre Revue des Deux Mondes. Pour Gallieni, la politique passe par la connaissance approfondie des populations. Il pense même que l’officier qui connaît parfaitement les populations est proche de la pacification. En effet, il estime que la connaissance des races déterminera l’organisation politique à donner et les moyens de pacifier. Enfin, ces deux chefs ont une vision stratégique de leur mission qui leur confè re un sens élevé des responsabilités. Ils n’ont pas agi dans un cadre politique clair, leur donnant des objectifs précis. Ils ont su inscrire leur mission dans une perspective stratégique: “Conserver le Tonkin sans développer toutes les conséquences de son occupation, c’est, comme nous en sommes coutumiers, gaspiller des hommes et de l’argent. Or quelle a été l’idée initiale de ceux qui nous ont amenés ici ? Y faire simplement une colonie de peuplement, une colonie d’exportation ? Non. Leur objectif essentiel, c’était la pénétration commerciale de la Chine par le sud … Notre raison d’être ici, dans la politique générale du monde, c’est d’y être aux avant-postes dans le grand conflit de dislocation et de civilisation qui est suspendu sur l’Extrême-Orient”. Gallieni laisse transparaître 11 Cité par André Maurois dans Lyautey, Plon, 1934. College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity his directives are numerous and allow for understanding the spirit of the mission. Externally, Gallieni was intelligent and he did not miss any opportunity to warn the ministers and the high Malagasy officials that were hostile to the action of France: “I am aware of the fact that certain important Malagasy personages have not always kept the attitude that the government has the right to expect from them … I am on the other hand firmly determined to repress all hostility acts against the French authority”12. These warnings are not sufficient and Gallieni puts his threats in practice. He sentences some opponents to death, deposes the Prime Minister of his functions that are suspended on October 11, 1896. Simultaneously, by means of billposters, he addresses the population to explain his action. In this message, he puts the blame of the rebellion on those who want to harm the country and its prosperity. He mentions the disturbance doers as belonging to the social elite and he warns them of his extreme harshness. He comments on his initiative to eliminate slavery. In the short run, the objective of this decision is to seduce an important part of the free population without delay. He creates a sort of political pliers exercising a strong pressure on the dominating class, on the one hand, and ensuring himself of the full support on the part of the most disadvantaged one, on the other hand. This skilful manoeuvre ensures the rallying of the majority. There can be no stabilisation work without an internal and external communication that aims at the persuasion of all, of course founded on the action in progress. It is doubtless that no French colonial conquest would have been taken place without important men of action, personalities. But, this chain of historic facts would not have carried the three colours so far if it had not passed through a school of thought, the relevance of reflection towards action and the timely 12 Gallieni, op.cit. cette hauteur de vue à travers une politique de communication tr è s habile lors de la pacification de Madagascar. En interne, ses directives sont nombreuses et permettent à chacun de comprendre l’esprit de la mission. En externe, Gallieni n’était pas dupe et il ne manqua pas une occasion d’avertir les ministres et les hauts fonctionnaires malgaches hostiles à l’action de la France: “je n’ignore pas que certains personnages malgaches en vue n’ont pas toujours gardé l’attitude que le gouvernement est en droit d’attendre d’eux … je suis d’autre part fermement résolu à réprimer tout acte d’hostilité contre l’autorité française”12. Ces avertissements ne suffirent pas et Gallieni mit à exécution ses menaces. Il prononça des condamnations à mort, déposa le premier ministre dont les fonctions furent suspendues dès le 11 octobre 1896. Simultanément, par voie d’affichage, il s’adressa à la population pour expliquer son action. Dans ce message, il fait porter la responsabilité de la rébellion sur ceux qui veulent nuire au pays et à sa prospérité. Il cite les fauteurs de trouble comme appartenant à l’élite sociale et les avertit de son extrême rigueur. Il commente son initiative de supprimer l’esclavage. L’objectif, à court terme de cette décision est de séduire sans délai une part importante de la population affranchie. Il réalise une sorte de tenaille politique en exerçant d’un coté une pression forte sur la classe dominante et de l’autre, en s’assurant le plein soutien de la partie la plus défavorisée. Cette manœuvre adroite lui assure le ralliement de la majorité. Il ne peut y avoir d’œuvre de stabilisation sans une communication interne et externe qui vise à la persuasion de tous, du bien fondé de l’action en cours. Il n’y aurait sans doute pas eu de conquête coloniale française sans des hommes d’action d’envergure, des personnalités hors pair. Mais, cette épopée n’aurait sûrement pas porté les trois couleurs si loin si elle n’avait pas été portée par une école de pensée, la pertinence d’une réflexion sur le sens de l’action et la façon 12 Gallieni, op.cit. 43 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 manner to command. One of the foundations of this school of thought rests on a paradox: the best method of pacification is to free it from any method or, more exactly, from rigidity. The contradiction is but apparent. It simply means the refusal of all ideology and the necessity for one to be able and to know to adapt himself to a country, a position, and a culture if one wants to act efficiently. On the other hand, this thought has to bridge the gap of a statutory formalism to succeed: it is necessary to invent and imagine new solutions. In this direction, the French school of pacification is a powerful invitation to innovation to rise to the new challenges of stabilisation. The bases of this imagination could be the following principles: an army does not stabilise by itself and the state that engages armed forces in stabilising it must consecrate political, economical, cultural means … The action is one, as well as the commander, and it is necessary therefore to avoid sequential cutting as well as parallel chains. One as the other encourages competition more than the complementarities of actions. In conclusion, stabilisation is a matter of persuasion and therefore of the credibility of the armed forces, of communication, of the leader’s charisma and, without offending the supporters of the “first in, first out” 13, of times: to win the population confidence, basic lever of its stabilisation, means to take an irreversible engagement. There again, the French Army has an experience of which bitterness it never wishes to rediscover. la plus opportune de la conduire. Un des fondements de cette école de pensée repose sur un paradoxe: la meilleure méthode de pacification, c’est de s’affranchir de méthode ou plus exactement de carcan. La contradiction n’est donc qu’apparente. Elle signifie simplement le refus de toute idéologie, et la nécessité de vouloir connaître et savoir s’adapter à un pays, une situation, une culture si l’on veut agir efficacement. D’autre part, cette pensée devait battre en brèche un formalisme réglementaire étroit pour réussir: il fallait inventer, imaginer des solutions nouvelles. En ce sens, l’école française de la pacification est donc une puissante invitation à l’innovation pour relever les défis nouveaux de la stabilisation. Les bases de cette imagination pourraient être les principes suivants: une armée ne stabilise pas seule et l’Etat qui engage des forces armées dans la stabilisation doit y consacrer des moyens politiques, économiques, culturels … L’action est une, comme le commandement, et il faut donc éviter le découpage séquentiel comme les chaînes parallèles. L’un comme l’autre encouragent la concurrence plus que la complémentarité des actions. Enfin, la stabilisation est affaire de persuasion et donc de crédibilité de la force armée, de communication, de charisme des chefs et, n’en déplaise aux partisans du “first in, first out”13, de temps: gagner la confiance d’une population, levier fondamental de la stabilisation, c’est prendre un engagement irréversible. Là encore, l’armée française a une expérience dont elle ne souhaite jamais retrouver l’amertume. Principle of intervention, stating that the force that enters a theatre first has to be the first that leaves it. 13 Principe d’intervention qui voudrait qu’une force armée entrant en premier sur un théâtre, le quitte aussi en premier. 13 44 SHOULD WE LET WAR REPOR TERS REPORTERS “Slip Into our Beds” ? PEUT -ON LAISSER PEUT-ON LES REPORTERS DE GUERRE “se glisser dans nos lits” ? In the spring of 2003, in Au printemps 2003, dans a difficult political climate, the un climat politique difficile, American forces launched the les forces américaines se sont attack on Iraq. This decision, lancées à l’assaut de l’Irak. Cette décision, lourde de full of consequences, raised conséquences, a soulevé nombre a number of questions of a moral d’interrogations d’ordre moral and ethical nature. However, et éthique. Pourtant, dè s les since the first days of the conflict premiers jours du conflit et en and in line with the associated marge de ces considérations, considerations, an internal c’est d’une polémique interne, polemic concerning the methods concernant les modalités of covering the operation has de couverture de l’opération become the major interest of the que se sont emparés les médias. media. It is a question of knowing Major Gilles JARON ~ The French Army ~ Il s’agissait de savoir si l’insertion if the insertion of war reporters among combat units is justifiable or not. des reporters de guerre parmi les unités Soon, with the help of the media, the term combattantes était ou non justifiable. “embedded”, which described these journalists, Rapidement, le battage médiatique aidant, le has become not only inevitable but also familiar terme d’ “embedded”, qui désignait ces to the public opinion1. journalistes insérés, est devenu aussi inévitable que familier du grand public1. An American Internet site specialised in linguistics established that the term “embedded” was the word of the year 2003. Cited by “Libération” in its edition of the 26.12.2003. The term “embedded” designates the one hundred journalists incorporated in the American forces during the coercion phase of the operation “Iraqi Freedom”. The US Department of Defense launched this proposal for incorporation to the media, 1 1 Un site Internet américain spécialisé dans la linguistique a d’ailleurs fini par consacrer le terme d’“embedded” mot de l’année 2003. Cité par “Libération” dans son édition du 26.12.2003. Le terme d’“embedded” désigne la centaine de journalistes incorporés au sein des forces américaines durant la phase de coercition de l’opération “Iraqi Freedom”. C’est le département américain 45 Romanian Military Thinking Starting from this experience of communication submitted as being new 2 , it is appropriate to wonder about the place which we intend to reserve in the future to the journalists present in theatres of operations. Should they be regarded as “partners” or, on the contrary, should they be kept away from the troops ? If the contact is required, should they prevail, as being the only specialists in communication regarding defence? Is it possible to envisage the least co-operation with these information professionals, considered to have a sharp spirit of independence ? Armies must answer, at the highest-level possible of any engagement, so many questions. In fact, invited to control a medium that is open by definition, the forces deployed in a theatre of operations will be exposed, voluntarily or not, to the pressure of a profession in full evolution. It is thus advisable to consolidate the principle of managing the media during crisis situations. Of course, the traditionally delicate relations between armies and media barely plead in favour of “embedding” journalists in the units. However, preparing, at least intellectually, for this way of communication is a reasonable step for our armies. Between naivety and fascination, it is more a question of seeking the right balance in order to act as professionals, aware of the realities of our time. In order to become convinced of the coherence of embedding, it is advisable to firstly measure the evolutions that make this openness essential, and then to consider the advantages ever since October 2002. The journalists interested in this adventure were selected and invited to sign an engagement not to compromise the military operations to come through their reports. 2 In fact, it is advisable to make the new character of this experiment relative. American forces already used the idea of embedding journalists, in particular during the Vietnam War. In June 1999, the commander of Brigade Leclerc also adopted this solution at the time of the French forces’ entry in Kosovo. However, the operation “Iraqi Freedom” remains new because of the systematic character and the scale of this practice. 46 ~ 3/2006 Tirant parti de cette expérience de communication présentée comme inédite2, il convient de s’interroger sur la place que nous entendons réserver à l’avenir aux journalistes présents sur un théâtre d’opérations. Faut-il les considérer comme des “partenaires” ou au contraire les tenir à l’écart des troupes ? Si le contact est recherché, faut-il en réserver la primeur aux seuls spécialistes de la communication de défense ? Est-il seulement possible d’envisager la moindre coopération avec des professionnels de l’information réputés posséder un farouche esprit d’indépendance ? Ce sont autant de questions auxquelles les armées doivent répondre le plus en amont possible de tout engagement. En effet, appelées à contrôler un milieu par définition ouverte, les forces déployées sur un théâtre d’opérations seront, volontairement ou non, exposées à la pression d’une profession en pleine évolution. Il convient donc d’arrêter un principe de gestion des médias dans la crise. Bien sûr, les relations traditionnellement délicates entre armées et médias ne plaident guère en faveur de “l’insertion” de journalistes dans les unités. Pourtant, se préparer, ne serait-ce qu’intellectuellement, à cette modalité de communication relève, pour nos armées, d’une démarche raisonnable. Entre naïveté et fascination, il s’agit bien de rechercher un juste équilibre, afin d’agir en professionnels conscients des réalités de notre temps. de la Défense qui avait lancé aux médias, dès le mois d’octobre 2002, cette proposition d’incorporation. Les journalistes intéressés par cette aventure ont été sélectionnés et invités à signer un engagement à ne pas compromettre, par leurs reportages, les opérations militaires à venir. 2 En fait, il convient de relativiser le caractère inédit de cette expérience. L’insertion de journalistes a déjà été pratiquée par les forces américaines, en particulier durant la guerre du Viet Nam. En juin 1999, cette solution a également été adoptée par le commandement de la brigade Leclerc lors de l’entrée des forces françaises au Kosovo. L’opération “Iraqi freedom” demeure cependant inédite du fait du caractère systématique et de l’échelle de cette pratique. College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity each party will be able to draw out of it. But, first of all, it is important to reconsider the reasons for which this adaptation causes such great scepticism on behalf of the defence institution. A Dialogue that Continues to be Difficult In the armed forces, it is the concept of prudence that dominates, as far as the relations with the press are concerned. However, it is very difficult for the information control 3 to interfere with the media aspiration to broadcast the information in real time, therefore to adjust two logics a priori antagonistic. It is a well-known fact, in our democratic societies, that communication has become an essential element for carrying out operations4. However, this requirement cannot lead to a policy of absolute transparency. Indeed, safeguarding secrecy, influence strategy and respect for people are as many limits justifying the progressive doubts with regard to “embedding”. Moreover, the professional constraints that weigh on journalists amply justify the reserves expressed with regard to “the embedded”. Indeed, forced by requirements of economic nature, these information professionals are increasingly captive to the logic of providing the public with their production “timely”. For them, it is not a question of especially understanding the profound nature of certain reality, but of adapting to the requirements of a commercial profit. To this constraint, the need for sticking not only to the expectations 3 “Information is the propagation of facts or raw data on the preparation and control of operations to meet the request of the media, the current of opinion or of the armed forces personnel”, in Doctrine interarmées sur la communication opérationnelle (Approval on July 2, 2001 no. 00658/DEF/EMA/ EMP.1/NP – 2001 Edition). 4 The effectiveness of operations “rests indeed on the public opinion adhesion, directly influenced by the coherence and nature of the speech of various actors involved in the crisis”, Ibid. Pour se convaincre du bien-fondé de l’insertion, il convient tout d’abord de mesurer les évolutions qui rendent cette ouverture indispensable, avant de considérer les avantages que chaque parti pourra en tirer. Mais, en premier lieu, il importe de revenir sur les raisons pour lesquelles cette adaptation suscite tant de réserve de la part de l’institution de défense. Un dialogue qui reste difficile Dans les armées, c’est la notion de prudence qui domine en mati è re de relations avec la presse. Or, le souci compréhensible de maîtrise de l’information3 s’accorde mal de l’aspiration des médias à la diffuser en temps réel, d’où la difficulté à ajuster deux logiques a priori antagonistes. Nous le savons, dans nos sociétés démocratiques, la communication est devenue un élément essentiel de la conduite des opérations4. Pourtant, cet impératif ne peut déboucher sur une politique de transparence absolue. En effet, la préservation du secret, la stratégie d’influence et le respect de la personne sont autant de limites justifiant les réserves avancées à l’égard de l’“insertion”. De plus, les contraintes professionnelles qui pèsent sur les journalistes justifient amplement les réserves exprimées à l’égard des “insérés”. En effet, pressés par des impératifs d’ordre économique, ces professionnels de l’information sont de plus en plus captifs d’une logique de fourniture “à temps” de leur production. Pour eux, il ne s’agit donc plus nécessairement de pénétrer la nature profonde d’une réalité, mais bien de se plier à un impératif commercial 3 “L’information est la diffusion de faits ou de données brutes sur la préparation et la conduite des opérations pour répondre à la demande des médias, des relais d’opinion ou encore du personnel des armées.” Doctrine interarmées sur la communication opérationnelle” (Approuvé le 2 juillet 2001 sous le no 00658/DEF/ EMA/ EMP.1/NP – Edition 2001). 4 L’efficacité des opérations “repose effectivement sur l’adhésion d’opinions publiques, directement influencées par la cohérence et la nature du discours des différents acteurs de la crise”, Ibidem. 47 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 of their “clientele” but also to the leading line of the editorial team they are part of is often added. Under these circumstances, the image of Albert London, a mythical reference of this profession, appears as being emblematic. During the ’90s, confronted with the “requirements of mutual adjustment”, the military and media actors involved in conflicts changed their behaviour, facilitating the development of a considered dialogue. For the armed forces, this adjustment would result in the profound transformation of their communication. From a “hierarchical” model, characteristic to the French political and administrative tradition, this one evolved towards a “polycentric” device that favoured word dissemination within the defence institution5. As it became much more active, this communication also gained in coherence, thanks to the collaboration of new entities in charge of working out and leading a true communication strategy. The establishment o f D I C o D 6, t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e communication cell of the armed forces staff (EMA/COM) and the installation of a true network of communicators within the forces, all testify to the undertaken efforts and the importance of this evolution. During the latest years, in spite of real difficulties, a first adjustment facilitated the communication control within and over operations. However, the set up model remains still too rigid and quite often it seems to be the business of experts. It thus seems condemned to evolve. de rentabilité. A cette contrainte s’ajoute souvent la nécessité de coller non seulement aux attentes de leur “clientèle”, mais aussi à la ligne éditoriale de leur rédaction. Dans ces conditions, l’image emblématique d’Albert Londres, référence mythique de cette profession, apparaît bien écornée. Pour autant, au cours des années quatre-vingt-dix, confrontés à des “exigences d’ajustement mutuel”, acteurs militaires et médiatiques des conflits ont modifié leur comportement respectif, facilitant l’éclosion d’un dialogue réfléchi. Pour les armées, cet ajustement s’est traduit par la profonde transformation de leur communication. D’un modèle “hiérarchique”, caractéristique de la tradition politique et administrative française, celle-ci a évolué vers un dispositif “polycentrique” qui a favorisé la distribution de la parole au sein de l’institution de défense5. Rendue plus vivante, cette communication a également gagné en cohérence, grâce à la collaboration de nouvelles entités chargées d’élaborer et de conduire une véritable stratégie de communication. La création de la DICoD6 , le développement de la cellule de communication de l’état-major des armées (EMA/COM) et la mise en place au sein des forces d’un véritable réseau de communicants témoignent des efforts consentis et de l’importance de cette évolution. Au cours des dernières années, malgré de réelles difficultés, un premier ajustement a donc facilité la conduite d’une communication dans et sur les opérations. Cependant, le modèle qui s’est mis en place demeure encore trop dirigé et souvent une affaire de spécialistes. Il semble donc condamné à évoluer. 5 A detailed analysis of this evolution was proposed in an article published by Jean-François Bureau, Delegate for Defence Information and Communication: “There are three crises that have transformed the relationships of the armed forces with the media: Lebanon, Gulf, Kosovo”, Actes du colloque sur l’information dans les conflits armés. Du Golfe au Kosovo, under the direction of Michel MATHIEN, Harmattan, Coll. Communication, 2001, pp. 139-161. 6 DICoD: Defence Information and Communication Delegation. 5 Une analyse détaillée de cette évolution est proposée dans un article publié par M. Jean-François Bureau, Délégué à l’information et à la communication de la défense: “Trois crises ayant transformé les rapports des armées avec les médias: Liban, Golfe, Kosovo”, Actes du colloque sur l’information dans les conflits armés. Du Golfe au Kosovo, Sous la direction de Michel MATHIEN, L’Harmattan, coll. communication, 2001, pp. 139-161. 6 DICoD: Délégation à l’information et à la communication de la défense. 48 College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity The Front Le front est Became Quite Open ! devenu bien perméable ! It is important for us to notice that “the situation” has actually changed. The battlespace openness, the development of new technologies and the evolution of the public opinion needs have all changed the former balance. First of all, we witness “the elimination” of geographical constraints. From now on, the soldiers themselves will think in terms of open space. The traditional vision of a battlefield made up of partitioned and difficult to reach zones is replaced by the concept of “lacunar combat”, to which vast intervals, lacking combatants and open to circulation are associated. War reporters have had more and more a real freedom of movement. Consequently, it would be illusory to believe that constraints from which we precisely intend to free ourselves are weighing on their profession. The invulnerability of the front is a vision that belongs to the past. Would this notion hold on to the least pertinence at the time of asymmetrical conflicts ? The same way, we witness the elimination of technical constraints. Just like the development of “info-centred” networks has contributed to giving freedom of action back to soldiers, the development of civil communication technologies largely facilitates the work of journalists. From now on, producing and broadcasting information at the same time is reality. This progress makes it possible for journalists to do their job while getting close to the troops engaged in action, but not preventing soldiers from doing their jobs in turn. During the operation “Iraqi Freedom”, they had total technical autonomy of broadcasting their production. More than ten years before, during the first Gulf War, they had often depended on the military means of transmission placed at their disposal. Lastly, the expectations of the public opinion have also evolved. In the absence of a certain perspective, it calls for concrete testimonies, close to the model of “telereality”. This need Force est de constater que “la donne” a effectivement changé. L’ouverture de l’espace de bataille, le développement des nouvelles technologies et l’évolution des besoins des opinions publiques modifient l’équilibre antérieur. Nous assistons tout d’abord à “l’effacement” des contraintes géographiques. Désormais, les militaires eux-mêmes réfléchissent en terme d’espace ouvert. A la vision classique d’un champ de bataille constitué de zones cloisonnées et difficilement accessibles, se substitue la notion de “combat lacunaire” à laquelle sont associés de vastes intervalles, vides de combattant et ouverts à la circulation. De plus en plus, les reporters de guerre disposent et disposeront donc d’une véritable liberté de mouvement. D è s lors, il serait illusoire de raisonner en imaginant voir peser sur leur profession des contraintes dont nous entendons précisément nous affranchir. L’étanchéité du front est une vision qui appartient au passé. Cette notion conserve-t’elle d’ailleurs la moindre pertinence à l’heure des conflits asymétriques ? De la même façon, nous assistons à l’effacement des contraintes techniques. Tout comme le développement des réseaux “infocentrés” a contribué à redonner une liberté d’action aux militaires, le développement des technologies civiles de communication facilite grandement le travail des journalistes. Désormais, la production et la diffusion de l’information dans un même mouvement sont devenues des réalités. Ce progrès offre aux journalistes la possibilité d’exercer leur profession en se rapprochant des troupes engagées dans l’action, ce qu’ils ne se priveront pas de faire. Durant l’opération “Iraqi freedom”, ils disposaient d’une totale autonomie technique de diffusion de leur production. Dix ans seulement auparavant, durant la première guerre du Golfe, ils dépendaient souvent de la mise à disposition de moyens militaires de transmission. Enfin, les attentes de l’opinion publique ont également évolué. A défaut d’une mise 49 Romanian Military Thinking appears manifest as the military expert is again used by television news bulletin. While the military “consultants” were so mediatised during the first Gulf War, being figures almost impossible to avoid of the first Gulf War, the last conflict showed a net disinterest with regard to their interventions. To satisfy its “customers”, the media will thus not fail to turn to the principal actors involved in a conflict who are the soldiers directly engaged at the heart of operations. Establishing a sanitary cord between troops and journalists becomes thus unrealistic. This position would be even less bearable if France were to intervene within a coalition favourable to the installation of “the embedded”. Consequently, it is advisable that it should prepare itself for this situation, by seeking the best possible way of collaboration between soldiers and journalists. On the Theory of Comparative Advantages ... Far from yielding to a fashionable purpose, the choice to “embed” journalists corresponds to a rational step. Based on the principle of comparative advantages, this disposition also allows for respecting the principle of anticipation, which is important in media crisis management. By multiplying testimonies on the realities of military life, embedding journalists provides the armed forces with the opportunity to convince the public opinion of the authorised efforts and the cogency of their action. Wars, as well as crises, are not virtual. They claim the engagement of men and women in extreme situations each and every time. However, few citizens evaluate their intensity and sometimes dramatic character. Favouring thus the recognition of the military trade specificity should not lead to making it banal, which is a major risk that weighs on the transformation of prosperous democracies armed forces. 50 ~ 3/2006 en perspective, elle réclame désormais des témoignages concrets se rapprochant du modèle de “télé réalité”. Ce besoin apparaît nettement à travers la remise en cause du personnage de l’expert militaire utilisé par les journaux télévisés. Alors que ses “consultants” très médiatiques s’étaient imposés comme des figures incontournables de la première guerre du Golfe, le dernier conflit a montré un net désintérêt à l’égard de leurs interventions. Pour satisfaire leur “clientèle”, les médias ne manqueront donc pas de se tourner vers les principaux acteurs d’un conflit que sont les militaires directement engagés au cœur des opérations. Etablir un cordon sanitaire entre les troupes et les journalistes devient donc irréaliste. Cette position serait encore moins tenable si la France devait intervenir au sein d’une coalition favorable à la mise en place d’“insérés”. Dès lors, il convient de se préparer, en recherchant la meilleure voie possible de collaboration entre militaires et journalistes. De la théorie des avantages comparés … Loin de céder à un effet de mode, le choix de “l’insertion” correspond à une démarche rationnelle. Fondée sur le principe des avantages comparés, cette disposition permet également de respecter le principe d’anticipation qui est déterminant dans la gestion d’une crise médiatique. En multipliant les témoignages sur les réalités de la vie militaire, l’insertion de journalistes donne aux forces armées l’occasion de convaincre les opinions publiques des efforts consentis et du bien-fondé de leur action. Les guerres, comme les crises, ne sont pas virtuelles. Elles réclament à chaque fois l’engagement d’hommes et de femmes dans des situations extrêmes. Or, bien peu de citoyens en mesurent l’intensité et le caractère parfois dramatique. Favoriser par ce biais une reconnaissance de la spécificité du métier militaire devrait nous éviter l’écueil de la banalisation, risque majeur qui pèse sur le devenir des armées d’une démocratie prospère. College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity In addition, the insertion must also provide journalists with the opportunity to reinforce their credibility. Much closer to the realities of the battlefield, having more varied information, they can derive advantage from this experience. They will be not only capable to meet the expectations of “their” public but they will be especially able to widen their sources of information and their perspective. It remains of course for their editorial staff to take care of the compliance with the rules of deontology that are specific to this profession7. Finally, this practice should favour the armed forces better control over the environment. It can indeed allow, beyond major incidents, for avoiding a media that can add to the already delicate conduct of the operation in progress8. Without this being a question of manipulation, the privileged contacts between “the embedded” and the military should favour the development of a solid relation likely to attenuate a media crisis. Besides the practical realities of the engagement, “the embedded” will be capable to inform their editorial staffs of facts which, taken out of their context, might leave room for prejudicial interpretations. In all the other circumstances, an analysis on communication led by Electricité de France ~ EDF – Electricity of France at the time of the great storms in December 1999 tends to validate this approach. Starting from the departure of journalists on the ground up to the Par ailleurs, l’insertion doit également offrir aux journalistes l’occasion de renforcer leur crédibilité. Plus proches des réalités du champ de bataille, disposant d’une information plus variée, ils peuvent tirer avantage de cette expérience. Ils seront non seulement plus à même de répondre à l’attente de “leur” public, mais ils pourront surtout élargir leurs sources d’information et leurs angles de reportage. Il restera bien sûr à leur rédaction à veiller au respect des règles de déontologie propres à cette profession7. Enfin, cette pratique devrait favoriser une meilleure maîtrise de leur environnement par les armées. Elle peut en effet permettre, lors d’incidents majeurs, d’éviter qu’une crise médiatique vienne s’ajouter à la conduite suffisamment délicate de l’opération en cours8. Sans qu’il soit question de manipulation, les contacts privilégiés entre “insérés” et militaires devraient favoriser le développement d’un tissu relationnel solide susceptible d’atténuer la portée d’une crise médiatique. Plus au fait des réalités pratiques de l’engagement, les “insérés” seront à même d’éclairer leur rédaction sur des faits qui, replacés hors de leur contexte, pourraient donner lieu à des interprétations préjudiciables. Dans de toutes autres circonstances, l’analyse de la communication conduite par Electricité de France ~ EDF lors des grandes tempêtes de décembre 1999 tend à valider cette approche. C’est en prenant le parti d’amener les journalistes sur le terrain, au contact de leurs équipes engagées sur les chantiers de réparation, 7 For not having complied with these rules of prudence, several American media had to resort to “mea culpa” a few months after the intervention in Iraq. 8 “The communication during a crisis is a particular case of the communication in operations. The crisis is the unexpected, the exceptional situation, the rupture of balance in which several actors are implied, which requires an immediate attention in a climate of strong uncertainty as far as the course of events and the consequences of the decisions made by the various parts are concerned”, in Doctrine interarmées sur la communication opérationnelle, p. 21. 7 Pour ne pas avoir respecté ces règles de prudence, certains médias américains, et non des moindres, ont dû effectuer leur mea culpa quelques mois après l’intervention en Irak. 8 “La communication de crise est un cas particulier de la communication en opérations. La crise, c’est l’inattendu, la situation exceptionnelle, la rupture d’équilibre dans laquelle plusieurs acteurs sont impliqués, qui nécessite une attention immédiate dans un climat de forte incertitude quant au déroulement des événements et aux conséquences des décisions prises par les différentes parties concernées”, Doctrine interarmées sur la communication opérationnelle, p. 21. 51 Romanian Military Thinking contact with their teams engaged on the construction site, EDF was able not only to suppress a media crisis in expectation, but also, later, to benefit from a capital of confidence born during this critical period. The practice of “embedding” thus provides the military and the media actors involved in a crisis with undeniable reciprocal advantages. Rather than taking refuge in a defensive position, it thus seems more appropriate to prepare journalists insertion in the units engaged in operation. It is a choice of common sense, because this way of covering crises by the media will not fail to develop. It is also a rational choice, because this step can make it possible for the armed forces to preserve a better control of their media environment. Therefore, it is not a question of causing their mentalities to evolve in order to make the current device of communication in operations more effective. It would be condemnable indeed, because of narrow-mindedness or ignorance, to underestimate the impact journalists can have on the development of the operation. Since they represent an undeniable and inevitable constraint, it is advisable for them to do the best job of it. Preparing, at least intellectually, in order to work in such an environment means avoiding to fall into the trap that threatens any individual in contact with the media: naivety and fascination. What is left to do is to put into practice the methods that allow for adjusting the reciprocal constraints of the military actors and the journalists who wish to be embedded. 52 ~ 3/2006 qu’EDF a pu non seulement juguler une crise médiatique en gestation, mais aussi, plus tard, tirer parti d’un capital confiance né au cours de cette période critique. La pratique de “l’insertion” offre donc aux acteurs militaires et médiatiques de la crise des avantages réciproques indéniables. Plutôt que de se réfugier dans une position défensive, il semble donc fondé de se préparer à insérer des journalistes au sein des unités engagées dans les opérations. C’est un choix de bon sens, car ce mode de couverture médiatique des crises ne manquera pas de se développer. C’est aussi un choix raisonné, car cette démarche peut permettre aux armées de conserver une meilleure maîtrise de leur environnement médiatique. Il ne s’agit donc de faire évoluer les mentalités pour rendre plus efficace le dispositif actuel de communication en opérations. Il serait effectivement condamnable, par manque d’ouverture ou par ignorance, de sous-estimer l’impact que les journalistes peuvent avoir sur le déroulement de la manœuvre. Puisqu’ils représentent une incontestable et inévitable contrainte, il convient d’en tirer le meilleur parti. Se préparer, au moins intellectuellement, à les voir travailler à nos côtés devrait nous éviter de tomber dans le double écueil qui menace tout individu au contact des médias: la naïveté et la fascination. Il reste donc à mettre en place les modalités pratiques permettant d’ajuster au mieux les contraintes réciproques des acteurs militaires et des journalistes candidats à l’insertion. VO NGUYEN GIAP ~ a Gifted Strategist and an Instrument of VVietnam ietnam Independence ~ VO NGUYEN GIAP ~ stratege de genie et instrument de l’independance du VVietnam ietnam ~ As we have just Alors que nous venons commemorated, it is only some de commémorer il y a quelques months, fifty years from the mois le cinquantième anniversaire de la bataille de Diên Biên Phu1, battle of Diên Biên Phu1, one can be astonished as the number on peut s’étonner du faible of the works devoted to one nombre d’ouvrages consacrés à l’un des artisans de la victoire of the artisans of the Vietminh vietminh et à sa stratégie. En effet, victory and to his strategy is very très peu évoquent de manière small. In fact, very few evoke détaillée l’action du général General Vo Nguyen Giap actions Vo Nguyen Giap, et il est donc in a detailed manner, and it is légitime de s’interroger à son therefore legitimate to wonder sujet. Doit-on le considérer about his subject. Should he be comme un grand stratège, ayant considered a big strategist, Major Dominique LUCHEZ having taken its troops to the ~ National French Gendarmerie ~ mené ses troupes à la victoire victory, facing two big world powers, face à deux grandes puissances mondiales, or modestly, a fighter, having known to show ou plus modestement, comme un combattant a tactical direction and take advantage of the ayant su faire preuve d’un grand sens tactique given circumstances, as well as of the errors et profiter des circonstances qui s’offraient of its opponents ? à lui, ainsi que des erreurs de ses adversaires ? In order to understand this history Afin de comprendre cet “oubli” de l’histoire, “forgetfulness”, it seems necessary to describe il semble nécessaire de souligner le parcours the trajectory of this man and the context de cet homme et le contexte qui entoura of his extraordinary evolution, before knowing ce cheminement hors du commun, avant a relative decline, and before being nowadays de connaître ensuite une relative déchéance, extremely admired by the Vietnamese people. et aujourd’hui une admiration sans faille de la If the General symbolises today an army part de la population vietnamienne. that successively pushed back the Japanese, the Si le général symbolise aujourd’hui une armée French, the Americans, the South-Vietnamese, qui a repoussé successivement les Japonais, les 1 The battle begins on March 13, 1954 and finishes on May 7, 1954. 1 La bataille de Diên Biên Phu commence le 13 mars 1954 et se termine le 7 mai 1954. 53 Romanian Military Thinking the Red Khmers and the Chinese, Giap is also the one who was many times constrained to criticise himself in public, the one who was reduced to a lower rank, within the politburo, before returning in grace and seeing himself entrusted with tasks in economy or agriculture, as an expert. ~ 3/2006 Français, les Américains, les Sud-Vietnamiens, les Khmers rouges et les Chinois, Giap est aussi celui qui a été contraint à plusieurs reprises à des autocritiques publiques, qui a été rétrogradé au sein du politburo avant de revenir en grâce puis de se voir confier de vagues tâches d’expert économique ou agricole. The Apprenticeship in the Trade of Weapons This artisan of the victory against the French colonial power and then against the United States is, nowadays, celebrated in his country as a hero, he, who did not intend to make himself a career in the trade of weapons. In fact, when Ho Chi Minh entrusted him with the command of the army in 1946, he had no experience in the military. Born in 1912, Vo Nguyen Giap is the son of a Chinese mandarin. Educated in a French high school, he takes part in the Communist movement, beginning with 1930. He studies History, Law and Economics at Hué and then at Hanoi, becomes a Professor of History in Hanoi and joins the Communist Party in 1939. A convinced patriot, Giap consecrates one of his courses to the wars of resistance against China that, during history, invaded Vietnam several times. He also describes, with eloquence and passion, Napoléon successes and victories, as he studied his campaigns in detail. Being interviewed by Le Monde in 2004, he does not hesitate to quote Bonaparte: “There where a goat can pass, a man can pass, too; there where a man can pass, a battalion can pass, too”2. From the battles won by the Emperor, he keeps the idea of the “concentration of the troops” and, especially, the one of the “surprise effect”. In June 1940, he meets Ho Chi Minh for the first time. He sends Giap to China, to study the Chinese strategy. In 1942, he attends courses on guerrilla and on politics, two disciplines that cannot be dissociated. While Ho Chi Minh 2 54 Interview in Le Monde, April 11, 2004. L’apprentissage du métier des armes Cet artisan de la victoire face à la puissance coloniale française puis aux États-unis est aujourd’hui célébré dans son pays comme un héros, lui qui pourtant ne se destinait pas au métier des armes. En effet, lorsque Ho Chi Minh lui confie le commandement de l’armée dès 1946, il ne possède aucune expérience militaire. Né en 1912, Vo Nguyen Giap est un fils de mandarin. Éduqué dans un lycée français, il participe au mouvement communiste dès les années 1930. Poursuivant des études d’histoire, de droit et d’économie à Hué puis à Hanoï, il devient professeur d’histoire à Hanoï et adhère au parti communiste en 1939. Patriote convaincu, Giap consacre l’un de ses cours aux guerres de résistance contre la Chine qui avait à plusieurs reprises au cours de l’histoire envahi le Vietnam. Il décrit également avec éloquence et passion les succès et les victoires de Napoléon dont il a étudié les campagnes dans les moindres détails. Interviewé par le journal Le Monde en 2004, il n’hésite pas à citer Bonaparte: “Là où une chè vre peut passer, un homme peut passer; l à o ù un homme peut passer, un bataillon peut passer”2. Des batailles gagnées par l’empereur, il retient le sens de “la concentration des troupes” et surtout, “l’effet de surprise”. En juin 1940, il rencontre Ho Chi Minh pour la première fois et celui-ci l’envoie en Chine afin d’étudier la stratégie chinoise. En 1942, il suit également des cours de guérilla et de politique, ces deux disciplines étant indissociables. Tandis 2 Interview au journal Le Monde, 11 avril 2004. College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity is the witty leader of the movement, Vo Nguyen Giap is the man of action, inspired by Mao and convinced that motivation is the key for success in political as well as in military matters. To this effect, it is important that all the people should be guided towards the trade of weapons with a view to totally transforming society. The entire population is called to be involved in the fight, under the form of local militias included. “The existence of three categories of troops effectively materialised the policy of the whole people under arms, this is the manner to organise the armed forces in a revolutionary war”3. In addition, Giap uses all the places that can be adapted to the manufacture of weapons, proving thus an extraordinary talent to organise, delegate and motivate his subordinates. The Commander in Chief qu’Ho Chi Minh est le chef spirituel du mouvement, il est l’homme d’action, inspiré par Mao et convaincu que la motivation est la clé du succè s en politique comme en matiè re militaire. A cet effet, il importe de guider le peuple tout entier vers le métier des armes en vue d’une totale transformation de la société. La population dans sa globalité est appelée à s’engager dans le combat, y compris sous forme de milices locales. “L’existence de trois catégories de troupes a effectivement matérialisé la politique de tout le peuple en armes, c’est là aussi la façon d’organiser les forces armées dans une guerre révolutionnaire”3. En outre, Giap utilise tous les endroits qui peuvent s’adapter à la fabrication d’armes, témoignant ainsi d’un extraordinaire talent à organiser, déléguer et motiver ses subordonnés. Le chef de guerre On April 15, 1945, Giap decides to create, in the six provinces of Tonkin, war regions, which, in turn, will be regrouped together to form a liberated zone. The existing military units become the “liberation army” under his command. He is promoted then to the rank of General. The Vietminh counts, at that time, about 5 000 members. In 1946, military recruitment and formation turn to full system. The basic Communist theories and the principles of the revolutionary war are learnt with the support of China. In April 1949, Giap had 32 regular battalions and 137 regional battalions at his disposal. In May 1950, Ho Chi Minh announces that all the Vietnamese of masculine sex, with ages between 16 and 55, who live in Tonkin or Annam must be incorporated in the army. In June 1951, Giap had 117 regular battalions grouped together in regiments as well as 37 regional battalions at his disposal. The regiments will form divisions of about 10 000 men. Le 15 avril 1945, Giap décide de créer dans les six provinces du Tonkin des régions de guerre, qui à leur tour seront regroupées pour former une zone libérée. Les unités militaires existantes deviennent “armée de libération” sous son commandement. Il prend alors le grade de général. Le Vietminh compte à cette période près de 5 000 membres. En 1946, recrutement et formation tournent à plein régime. On enseigne les théories communistes de base et les principes de la guerre révolutionnaire, avec le soutien de la Chine. En avril 1949, Giap dispose de 32 bataillons réguliers et 137 bataillons régionaux. En mai 1950, Ho Chi Minh annonce que tous les Vietnamiens de sexe masculin de 16 à 55 ans habitant le Tonkin ou l’Annam doivent être incorporés dans l’armée. En juin 1951, Giap dispose de 117 bataillons réguliers regroupés en régiments ainsi que de 37 bataillons régionaux. Par la suite, les régiments formeront des divisions de 10 000 hommes environ. 3 Vo Nguyen Giap, People’s War, People’s Army, 1st edition, 1961, edition in foreign languages, Hanoi. Besides the people’s militias, Giap considers the regular and regional troops. 3 Vo Nguyen Giap: “Guerre du peuple, armée du peuple” 1ère édition 1961, édition en langues étrang ères-Hanoï. Outre les milices populaires, Giap distingue les troupes régulières et les troupes régionales. 55 Romanian Military Thinking At first, Giap completely relies on the Chinese experts in the domains in which the Vietminh suffers from serious gaps. China equally provides equipment, in large quantities, during the year 1951, which makes Giap a genuine commander, having an organisation that enables him to wage a conventional war, a logical step that must follow the guerrilla and the mobile war, these being the two first phases of the revolutionary war, before the general offensive, according to the Maoist theories. Giap considers it is time to pass to attack on all azimuths and to launch offensive towards Hanoi. He is wrong. The arrival of General de Lattre de Tassigny, in December 1950, and his decisive actions stop him in his race; he is pushed back in all his enterprises (5600 bo-doïs killed in Vinh-Yen, Northwest of Hanoi, in January 1951). Giap overestimates the state of his forces and he is constrained to withdraw. He keeps no reserve troops to exploit a sudden occasion or to return a difficult position. He nevertheless uses big formations and accomplishes extended movements. If his campaign of 1951 had been successful, it would have been a model of strategic coordination. His plan fails, as he is not experienced enough and as he cannot make use of the means and the command and control procedures necessary for such an operation. In the years that follow, the French Commanders in Chief (General Salan and then General Navarre) try to attract Giap in a classical battle where the superiority of their power would give them a decisive advantage. Giap has no intention to make the same mistake and prefers sacrificing his own-trapped units to letting himself involved in it, which brings him the reputation of a person who too easily disposes of his men’s life. In 1953, Navarre decides to concentrate his forces to Diên Biên Phu, a valley of 16 on 9 kilometres, which presents a strategic interest. This is a passage place towards Laos, Thailand, Burma and China. The French General Staff hopes thus to block the way of supplying weapons and ammunition coming from China. 56 ~ 3/2006 Dans les premiers temps, Giap se repose entiè rement sur les experts chinois dans les domaines où le Vietminh souffre de graves lacunes. La Chine fournit également du matériel en très grande quantité au cours de l’année 1951, ce qui fait de Giap un véritable commandant militaire, doté d’une organisation susceptible de mener une guerre conventionnelle, étape logique qui doit suivre la guérilla et la guerre mobile, celles-ci étant les deux premières phases de la guerre révolutionnaire, avant l’offensive générale, selon les théories maoïstes. Giap estime alors qu’il est temps de passer à l’attaque tous azimuts et lancer l’offensive vers Hanoï. Il se trompe. L’arrivée du général de Lattre de Tassigny en décembre 1950 et son action déterminante l’arrêtent dans sa course; il est repoussé dans toutes ses entreprises (5600 bodoïs tués à Vinh-Yen au nord-ouest de Hanoï, en janvier 1951). Giap a surestimé l’état de ses forces et est contraint au retrait. Il n’a conservé aucune troupe de réserve pour exploiter une occasion soudaine ou retourner une situation difficile. Il a pourtant utilisé de grandes formations et accompli de vastes mouvements d’étau. En cas de succès, sa campagne de 1951 aurait été un modèle de coordination stratégique. Son plan ne fonctionna pas car il ne possédait pas encore l’expérience, les moyens et les procédures de commandement et de contrôle, pour une telle opération. Dans les années qui suivent, les commandants en chef français (le général Salan puis le général Navarre) essaient d’attirer Giap dans une bataille classique où la supériorité de leur puissance leur donnerait un avantage décisif. Giap n’a pas l’intention de renouveler cette erreur et préfère sacrifier des unités prises au piè ge plutôt que de se laisser entraîner, ce qui lui vaut sa réputation de disposer allègrement de la vie de ses hommes. En 1953, Navarre décide de concentrer ses forces à Diên Biên Phu, cuvette de 16 kilomètres sur 9, et qui présente un intérêt stratégique. C’est un lieu de passage vers le Laos, la Thaïlande, la Birmanie et la Chine. College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity While concentrating his forces in a precise place, General Navarre wishes to attract the enemy forces and to eliminate them with the help of his armoured and his aviation. Facing Giap growing initiatives in this sector (Lay Chau conquest, North of Diên Biên Phu, on December 12), Navarre cannot but decide to increase the number of his forces in the valley. Giap does not cease pestering Navarre’s troops that lack any possibility of initiative. In addition, Navarre does not agree General Cogny, the Commander of the Land Forces in the North Vietnam; the divergences between them are increasing. Before the beginning of the offensive, Giap succeeds in achieving two extremely important objectives: to concentrate an important number of canons and to more and more disperse Navarre’s troops. When the battle begins, on March 13, 1954, Giap has 28 infantry battalions, about 37 500 fighters, including the artillery and the genius, at his disposal. There add some 50 000 stewardship soldiers. In contrast to the estimations of the French Headquarters, Giap gunners install themselves on the internal slopes of the valley and can thus fire. In addition, Giap has his soldiers dig entrenchments in the neighbouring hills, in the proximity of the French positions. This way, as time passes, they gain more and more ground, to the final fall of the lines, on May 7, 19544 that rings the toll of the French presence in this country. The war itself does not finish that day. Giap’s soldiers continue to pester the French through Vietnam, until the withdrawal of the troops, decided upon at the Conference in Geneva that also triggers about the division of Vietnam in two States, on the one and the other side of the 17th parallel. L’état-major français espère ainsi barrer la route à l’approvisionnement en armes et munitions venant de Chine. En concentrant ses forces sur un endroit précis, le général Navarre souhaite attirer les forces ennemies et les éliminer avec ses blindés et son aviation. Face aux initiatives croissantes de Giap dans ce secteur (prise de Lai Chau au nord de Diên Biên Phu le 12 décembre), Navarre ne peut que se résoudre à augmenter le volume de ses forces dans la cuvette. Giap ne cesse de harceler les troupes de Navarre, dépourvues de toute possibilité d’initiative. En outre, Navarre ne s’entend gu è re avec le général Cogny, commandant les FTNV (Forces Terrestres du Nord Vietnam); les divergences s’accroissent entre les deux hommes. Avant le début de l’offensive, Giap a réussi à réaliser deux objectifs d’une extrême importance: la concentration d’un nombre important de canons et la dispersion de plus en plus grande des troupes de Navarre. Lorsque la bataille commence, le 13 mars 1954, Giap dispose de 28 bataillons d’infanterie, soit 37 500 combattants, y compris l’artillerie et le génie. A cela s’ajoutent quelques 50 000 soldats d’intendance. Contrairement aux estimations du commandement français, les artilleurs de Giap s’installent sur les pentes intérieures de la cuvette et peuvent ainsi tirer à vue. En outre, Giap fait creuser des tranchés dans les collines voisines à proximité des positions françaises. Celles-ci, au fil du temps, gagnent de plus en plus sur les lignes françaises, jusqu’à la chute finale le 7 mai 19544 qui sonne le glas de la présence française dans ce pays. La guerre ne s’ach è ve pas ce jour-l à . Les soldats de Giap continuent à harceler les Français à travers le Vietnam, jusqu’au retrait des troupes décidé lors de la conférence de Genève, qui entraîne en outre le partage du Vietnam en deux États de part et d’autre du 17ème parallèle. 4 The French losses: 1 732 dead soldiers and as many missing ones, 11 721 prisoners, among them 8 431 died in captivity. The Vietnamese losses: between 8 000 and 12 000 dead soldiers in the fights. 4 Etat des pertes françaises: 1 732 morts au combat et autat de portés disparus, 11 721 prisonniers dont 8 431 morts en captivité. Côté viet-minh: entre 8 000 et 12 000 morts au combat. 57 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 In Hanoi, Giap does not remain idle until the end of the ‘50s. He increases the effectives of the army and modernises it with up to date Chinese and Soviet armament. He simultaneously exercises many responsibilities: Minister of Defence, Commander in Chief of the Popular Army, Vice Prime Minister and Vice President of the Defence Council, posts where he plays important roles. In January 1959, the Central Committee of the Party, which Giap is part of, decrees that it is the moment to fight for the reunification with the South, which, little by little, causes the intervention of the United States, by virtue of the “domino principle”5, according to which the last pro Western systems of Asia would risk falling one after another under the mastery of Communism. There again, according to Giap, the priority of the Popular Armed Forces of Liberation must be to inflict the maximum of losses to the enemy, by guerrilla operations rather than by widespread operations that would cause heavy losses in the two camps. This is his policy, especially at the beginning; the widespread operations, immobilising a large number of soldiers, can follow attrition operations. For the American soldiers, the War in Vietnam put a number of problems that were not easy to resolve. The army was engaged in short and violent fights against the Vietcong6, and, at the same time, it had to face the unities of the regular Communist army, battalions, A Hanoï jusqu’à la fin des années cinquante, Giap ne reste pas inactif. Il augmente les effectifs de l’armée et la modernise avec de l’armement chinois et soviétique plus récent. Il exerce parallèlement de nombreuses responsabilités: ministre de la Défense, commandant en chef de l’Armée populaire, vice-premier ministre et vice-président du conseil de Défense, postes où il joue un rôle important. En janvier 1959, le comité central du Parti, dont Giap fait partie, décrète que le moment de la lutte est venu en vue d’une réunification avec le sud, ce qui entraîne peu à peu l’intervention des États-unis, en vertu de la “théorie des dominos”5, selon laquelle les derniers régimes pro-occidentaux d’Asie risqueraient de tomber les uns après les autres sous l’emprise des communistes. Là encore, selon Giap, la priorité des Forces Armées Populaires de Libération doit être d’infliger le maximum de pertes à l’ennemi, par des opérations de guérilla plutôt que par des opérations de grande envergure susceptibles de causer de lourdes pertes dans les deux camps; telle est sa politique, dans un premier temps du moins; les opérations de grande envergure, immobilisant un grand nombre de soldats ennemis, pourraient ensuite se superposer à cette politique d’usure. Pour les soldats américains, la guerre au Vietnam pose un certain nombre de problèmes qu’il n’est pas facile de résoudre. L’armée est engagée dans de brefs et violents combats contre le Vietcong6, mais elle doit aussi faire face aux unités de l’armée communiste régulière, 5 The domino principle was formulated by the American State Secretary Foster Dulles during the Cold War, with regard to the Communist threat in Asia: the fall of one country causes the fall of neighbouring countries and, little by little, menaces even the Western Europe. 6 Viêtcong – term used by the Americans during the War in Vietnam to denote the Vietnamese Communist fighters (contraction of Viet Nam Cong San or Communist Vietnamese). It is, in fact, the armed forces of the Front de Libération du sud Vietnam created in the South on December 20, 1963. The term succeeded that of Viet Minh, abbreviation of “Viêtnam Doc Lap Dông Minh” (Ligue pour l’indépendance du Viêtnam created in May 1941 5 La théorie des dominos a été formulée par le Secrétaire d’État américain Foster Dulles pendant la guerre froide, à propos du danger communiste en Asie: la chute d’un pays entraîne celle des autres pays limitrophes et, de proche en proche, menace l’Europe occidentale elle-même. 6 Viêtcong est le terme utilisé par les Américains pendant la guerre du Vietnam pour désigner les combattants vietnamiens (contraction de “Viet Nam Cong San” ou communistes vietnamiens). C’est en fait le bras armé du Front de Libération du sud Vietnam créé dans le sud le 20 décembre 1963. Le terme a succédé à celui de Viet Minh, abréviation de “Viêtnam Doc Lap Dông Minh” (Ligue pour l’indépendance du Viêtnam créée en mai 1941 par Hô Chi Minh) 58 College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity regiments, as well as divisions, without having a defined front line. To a certain extent, it was easier for Giap. Before 1954, he already took a similar war with a mixture of regular forces, regional unities and guerrilla groups. From other perspectives, it was more difficult as he could have only an indirect control on the operations and it was impossible for him to communicate by radio with all unities. The offensives of 1968, proposed by Giap to the politburo in October 1967, caused the end of the direct intervention of the United States. On the Ho Chi Minh tarmac arrived tens of thousands of soldiers and tons of equipment, necessary to the Têt offensive. As Dîen Bîen Phu was for the French, Khe Sanh was for the Americans, the crucial turn of the war. For the Vietcong, the offensive was a disaster7. The objectives surpassed the level of the forces and caused important human and material losses, fact accepted by Giap. Another failure was that the population of the South Vietnam did not rise itself to fight, as it was expected. For General Westmoreland, Commander in Chief in Vietnam, it was a failure as well, which rendered any victory on the spot improbable. President Johnson lost the confidence of his people and was replaced by President Nixon. The South Vietnam thus lost the war and Giap and his troops did not win it, as they had won the Indochina War after the coup de grace of Dîen Bîen Phu. In the South, no decisive military operation favouring the one or the other camp was engaged. One simply attends to a progressive loss of people’s faith, be they Americans or South Vietnamese. After the departures of the first American contingents, about the mid of 1968, it was a total confusion among both the American and South Vietnamese Armies. The latter left the South by Hô Chi Minh), which designated the Vietnamese forces during the French period 1945-1954. While the term Viet Minh denotes the ensemble of combat forces, that of Vietcong refers to the rebel forces in South-Vietnam. 7 The siege lasted for 77 days, from January till April 1968, and resulted in about 100 000 dead people among the North Vietnamese. bataillons, régiments, voire divisions, sans qu’il y ait pour autant de ligne de front définie. Pour Giap, c’est, dans une certaine mesure plus facile. Avant 1954, il a déjà mené une guerre semblable avec un mélange de forces régulières, d’unités régionales et de groupes de guérilla. A d’autres égards, c’est plus difficile puisqu’il ne peut plus contrôler les opérations que de façon indirecte et il lui est impossible de communiquer par radio avec toutes les unités. Les offensives de 1968, proposées par Giap au politburo en octobre 1967, entraînent la fin de l’intervention directe des Etats-Unis. Par la piste Ho Chi Minh arrivent des dizaines de milliers de soldats et des tonnes de matériel nécessaires à l’offensive du Têt. Comme Dîen Bîen Phu pour les Français, Khe Sanh est pour les Américains le tournant crucial de la guerre. Pour le Vietcong, l’offensive est un désastre7. Les objectifs dépassent le niveau des forces et entraînent d’importantes pertes humaines et matérielles, ce que Giap acceptait. C’est aussi un échec car la population du Sud-Vietnam ne s’est pas soulevée comme prévu. Pour le général Westmoreland, commandant en chef au Vietnam, c’est aussi un échec qui rend improbable toute victoire sur place. Le président Johnson perd la confiance de son peuple et est remplacé par le président Nixon. Le Sud-Vietnam perd ainsi la guerre plutôt que Giap et ses troupes ne la gagnent, comme ils avaient gagné la guerre d’Indochine après le coup de grâce de Dîen Bîen Phu. Au sud, aucune opération militaire décisive avantageant l’un ou l’autre camp n’est engagée. On assiste simplement à une perte progressive de la foi par les peuples, tant américain que sud-vietnamien. Après les premiers départs, dès la mi-1968, ce qui reste de l’armée américaine est en plein désarroi, de même que l’ARVN (Armée de la République du Sud-Vietnam), laissant le sud sans défense contre une éventuelle attaque du nord. qui désigne les forces vietnamiennes pendant la période française de 1945 à 1954. Cependant si le terme Viet Minh désigne l’ensemble des forces combattantes, celui de Vietcong fait référence aux forces rebelles du Sud-Vietnam. 7 Le siège a duré 77 jours de janvier à avril 1968 et fit près de 10 000 morts nord-vietnamiens. 59 Romanian Military Thinking without defence against an possible attack from the North. Land operations were followed by heavy air bombardments. These caused losses among Giap troops, thus obliging both parties to sit to the negotiating table. In the spring of 1972, Giap was ready. He engaged a massive attack of conventional type. Twenty divisions representing 125 000 men crossed the demilitarised zone. For the first time, he had access to an important number of Soviet tanks T54 and T72. Extending the peace talks, while continuing to kill American soldiers, the North Vietnam turned the Americans to have a more and more hostile attitude towards the war. In January 1973, an agreement was signed. It provisioned the maintenance of the North Vietnamese forces in the South and the withdrawal of the American forces. Nevertheless, Giap did not wish to remain there. His fight would not finish until the unification of Vietnam. It was accomplished on April 30, 1975 with the fall of Saïgon. Giap had already been the Commander in Chief for about twenty years and had exercised high political functions. In December 1978, he equally conceived the invasion of Cambodia. In 1980, he abandoned his post of Minister of Defence and Commander in Chief, although he preserved his responsibilities in the Politburo, up to 1991. The Strategist ? Facing such a career and such longevity, one cannot but wonder to the personage. Was Giap actually a big strategist ? It is difficult to answer this question straightaway. His manuscripts, although they let us see his determining action, more emphasise the role of the Party in the decisions made, and the man is often obliterated by the ideology. Certain elements deserve, nevertheless, to be deepened. Of course, all the decisions made were collective and approved by the Politburo, even if Giap was a politician and an officer at the same time, which enabled him to influence the decisions. Later on, Giap experienced some failures: the offensive of 1951, at Na San in NovemberDecember 1952, then during the campaign 60 ~ 3/2006 Aux opérations terrestres vont succéder des opérations de bombardements aériens de grande envergure. Ceux-ci causent des pertes aux troupes de Giap, obligeant ainsi chacun à s’asseoir à la table des négociations. Au printemps 1972, Giap est prêt. Il engage une attaque massive de type conventionnel. Vingt divisions représentant 125 000 hommes franchissent la zone démilitarisée. Pour la premi è re fois, il dispose d’un nombre important de chars soviétiques T 54 et T 72. En prolongeant les pourparlers de paix, tout en continuant à tuer des soldats américains dès qu’il le peut, le Nord-Vietnam rend l’opinion américaine de plus en plus hostile à la guerre. En janvier 1973, un accord est signé. Il prévoit le maintien des forces nord-vietnamiennes au sud, et le retrait des forces américaines. Giap ne souhaite pourtant pas en rester là. Son combat ne se terminera qu’avec l’unification du Vietnam. Le regroupement est acquis le 30 avril 1975 avec la chute de Saïgon. Giap est alors commandant en chef depuis près de vingt ans et exerce de hautes fonctions politiques. En décembre 1978, il conçoit également l’invasion du Cambodge. En 1980, il abandonne son poste de ministre de la Défense et de commandant en chef, pour conserver cependant des responsabilités au Politburo, jusqu’en 1991. Le stratège ? Face à un tel parcours et une telle longévité, on peut s’interroger sur le personnage. Giap était-il réellement un grand stratège ? Il est difficile de répondre d’emblée à cette question. Ses écrits, même s’ils laissent apparaître son action déterminante, mettent davantage en avant le rôle du Parti dans les décisions prises, l’homme s’effaçant souvent derrière l’idéologie. Certains éléments méritent toutefois d’être approfondis. Certes, toutes les décisions prises l’étaient de manière collective et approuvées par le Politburo, même si Giap était à la fois un politique et un militaire, et qu’il pouvait ainsi infléchir les décisions. Ensuite Giap a connu quelques échecs: l’offensive de 1951, à Na San en novembredécembre 1952 puis pendant la campagne de 1968 mais aussi de beaux success: la campagne College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity of 1968, but also some wonderful successes: the campaign at the RC 4, Diên Biên Phu, the creation of the Ho Chi Minh tarmac. For about thirty years, which is exceptional in terms of duration, Giap proved extraordinary qualities in all the major domains of the war: strategy, through his vision in the depth of the events, tactics, through his mastery of the guerrilla, often combined to a conventional war. “The long-term revolutionary war had to include several different steps: the defensive one, the one of the balance of the forces, and, last, the one of the counteroffensive. The living reality was evidently more complex.”8 Finally, he showed a big mastery of the logistical issue, without which nothing would have been possible and knew how to provide himself with a staff comparable to the one of a classical army, having a directorate of the stewardship and a logistical one. Although the Chinese model and Mao Ze Dong theories regarding revolutionary war exercised a real influence on him, Giap knew how to take distance from them, when needed, proving realism and pragmatism in finding solutions “in the Vietnamese style”. As for the qualities that make him a big military leader, the aptitude to make decisions, moral force, capacity of concentration, intelligence, Westmoreland considered that he possessed them all. Admiral Thierry Argenlieu, French High Commissioner in Indochina from 1945 to 1947 says about him: “Giap is for sure, after Ho Chi Minh, the most important personality of the Party of which he is a sharply Anti-French element. He will never acknowledge himself as being defeated in the fight for the independence of his country”9. Such longevity deserves to be signalled, having in view the fact that many Commanders in Chief (Generals Lattre, Salan, Navarre for the French, Westmoreland, Creighton Abrams for the Americans) confronted with him. Some of their tactical choices were criticised: all was said on Navarre errors with regard to planning. Besides the questionable choice of the location Vo Nguyen Giap, Guerre du peuple, armée du people, 1st edition, 1961. 9 Admiral Thierry d’Argenlieu, Chroniques d’Indochine, Albin Michel, 1985, p. 254. 8 de la RC 4, Diên Biên Phu, la création de la piste Ho Chi Minh. Durant près de trente années – ce qui est exceptionnel en terme de durée –, Giap a témoigné de qualités hors du commun dans tous les domaines majeurs de la guerre: stratégie, par sa vision en profondeur des événements, tactique par sa maîtrise de la guérilla, souvent combinée à une guerre conventionnelle. “La guerre révolutionnaire de longue durée devait comporter plusieurs étapes différentes: l’étape de la défensive, celle de l’équilibre des forces, enfin celle de la contre-offensive. La réalité vivante était évidemment plus complexe”8. Enfin, il a fait preuve d’une grande maîtrise de la problématique logistique sans laquelle rien n’aurait été possible et a su se doter d’un état-major comparable à celui d’une armée classique, possédant une direction de l’intendance et une de la logistique. Si le modèle chinois et les théories de Mao Ze Dong en matière de guerre révolutionnaire ont exercé une réelle influence, Giap a su aussi s’en éloigner le cas échéant, témoignant d’un réalisme et d’un pragmatisme afin de trouver des solutions “à la vietnamienne”. Quant aux qualités qui font un grand chef militaire – aptitude à prendre des décisions, force morale, capacité de concentration, intelligence, Westmoreland estimait qu’il les possédait toutes. L’amiral Thierry d’Argenlieu, haut commissaire de France en Indochine de 1945 à 1947 dira de lui: “Giap est certainement, après Ho Chi Minh, la personnalité la plus marquante du Parti dont il constitue un élément très vivement anti-français. Il ne s’avouera jamais vaincu dans le combat pour l’indépendance de son pays”9. Une telle longévité mérite d’être signalée alors que face à lui se sont succédés de nombreux commandants en chefs (les généraux de Lattre, Salan, Navarre pour les Français, Westmoreland, Creighton Abrams pour les Américains). Certains de leurs choix tactiques furent critiqués: tout a été dit sur les erreurs du plan Navarre. Outre le choix discutable du lieu Vo Nguyen Giap, Guerre du peuple, armée du peuple, édition 1961 9 Amiral Thierry d’Argenlieu, Chroniques d’Indochine, Albin Michel, 1985. 8 1 ère 61 Romanian Military Thinking for confrontation, one is aware of the absence of available reserves, of the waste in case of Atlanta operation (operation aiming at occupying the three free provinces in the Centre of Annam), of the overestimation of the French forces and of the underestimation of the ones of the opponent. Finally, what Giap victory teaches us, or recalls us in case we would have forgotten, following the example of the French leaders of the Fourth Republic, is that the military success requires certain conditions that cannot be replaced by the value of the soldiers: defined and coherent political and military objectives, the implementation of the necessary means with a view to attaining these objectives, the support of the nation for its soldiers and enduring external alliances. All these can appear as being a continuation of evidence, although it was not so, at least on the French side, during the Indochina war. To these qualities it is equally added the Vietnamese fervour and determination without which the victory could not have been obtained. In contrast to his opponents, Giap accepted the losses, considered as the price to pay, while his soldiers were ready for the supreme sacrifice to defend their cause. On the other side, in spite of a superior fire power, the American war machine, sophisticated but served by little acclimated personnel, not too accustomed with the rural conditions and less motivated, could not crush an army or so determined armed people. Technological superiority may be deceiving. If it allows for inflicting terrible strikes to the enemy, it does not ensure control over a territory or over people. Giap understood that the impact of the events, seen through the prism of the media, could be decisive and he knew how to use the Western media, and the Western society liberty and vulnerability for his profit. Giap perfectly integrated these parameters and knew to take advantage out of them. This is doubtless what allowed for him to be both a gifted strategist and the instrument of Vietnam independence (“Doc Lap”) and of its reunification (the union of the 3 “Ky”, Annam, Tonkin, Cochinchine) within a Communist republic. 62 ~ 3/2006 de l’affrontement, on ignore rien de l’absence de réserves disponibles, du gaspillage de l’opération Atlante (opération visant à occuper les trois provinces libres au Centre-Annam), de la surestimation de nos forces et de la sousestimation de celles de l’adversaire. Enfin, ce que nous apprend la victoire de Giap, ou ce qu’elle nous rappelle au cas où nous l’aurions oublié à l’instar des dirigeants français de la IVe République, c’est que le succès des armes exige certaines conditions que la vaillance des soldats ne peut pas remplacer: des objectifs politiques et militaires définis et cohérents, la mise en œuvre des moyens nécessaires à la poursuite de ces objectifs, un soutien de la nation à ses soldats, et des alliances extérieures indéfectibles. Cela peut paraître une suite d’évidences, ce ne le fut pourtant pas, côté français, pendant la guerre d’Indochine. A ces qualités s’ajoutaient également une ferveur et une détermination des Vietnamiens sans lesquelles la victoire n’aurait pu être acquise. Contrairement à ses adversaires, Giap acceptait les pertes, considérées comme le prix à payer, tandis que ses soldats étaient prêts au sacrifice suprême pour la cause défendue. De la même façon, en dépit d’une puissance de feu supérieure, la machine de guerre américaine, sophistiquée mais servie par du personnel peu acclimaté, beaucoup moins rustique et motivée, ne pouvait écraser une armée ou un peuple en armes aussi déterminées. La supériorité technologique est trompeuse. Si elle permet d’infliger des coups terribles à l’ennemi, elle ne donne ni le contrôle d’un territoire ni celui d’un peuple.Enfin Giap comprit que l’impact des événements, vus à travers le prisme des média, pouvait être décisif et sut utiliser les média occidentaux pour retourner, à son profit, la liberté et la vulnérabilité des sociétés occidentales. Ces paramètres, Giap les a parfaitement intégrés et a su en tirer parti à des moments cruciaux. C’est sans doute ce qui lui a permis d’être tout autant un stratè ge de génie que l’instrument de l’indépendance du Vietnam (“Doc Lap”) et de sa réunification (l’union des 3 “Ky”, Annam, Tonkin, Cochinchine) au sein d’une république communiste. STRA TEGIC STRATEGIC DIVERGENCES DIVERGENCES STRA TEGIQUES STRATEGIQUES Dans une fenêtre de temps In a rather reduced timeframe, assez réduite à l’échelle des compared to the scale of the mutations géopolitiques (Avril 1999 geopolitical mutations (April 1999 à décembre 2003), trois grands – December 2003), three big poles pôles de puissance, alliés entre 1 of power – NATO , the United e u x , ont chacun publié 2 3 States and the European Union , un document stratégique each published a strategic de référence – l’OTAN1, les Etatsreference document – that is Unis2 et l’Union européenne3. Ce a remarkable fact in itself. fait est en soi assez remarquable. These documents, presenting Ces documents en effet concrete and comparable aspects, c o n s t i t u e n t ou essayent de constitute or try to constitute constituer une vision stratégique a strategic vision on security, de sécurité destinée à servir meant to guide their action. It is de guide à l’action. Ils présentent Lieutenant Commander of course true that, in the domain donc des aspects concrets Charles-Edouard DARD ~ National French Marine ~ et comparables. Il est certes vrai of international politics, facts que dans le domaine de la politique internationale speak better than words. Nevertheless les actes parlent mieux que les mots. Toutefois the compared study of the texts describing l’étude comparée des textes décrivant ces trois these three strategies, in the light of certain stratégies, à la lumi è re de certains faits, peut facts, can provide us with some teachings. fournir quelques enseignements. The current speech on the common values Le discours actuel sur les valeurs communes that divide the two shores of the Atlantic should que partagent les deux rives de l’Atlantique not, in fact, put our critical sense to sleep. ne doit pas en effet endormir notre sens Appearances are deceiving. The numerous critique. Les apparences sont trompeuses. convergences should not mask the existent risk Les convergences nombreuses ne doivent for these centres of power to confront on certain pas masquer le risque existant pour ces grands essential aspects of their respective strategies. ensembles de s’affronter sur certains aspects A detailed analysis of these three strategic essentiels de leurs stratégies respectives. concepts shows, in fact, some inconsistencies L’analyse détaillée de ces trois concepts that may be good reasons for our concern stratégiques fait en effet apparaître des lignes de fractures qui ont quelques raisons de nourrir to nourish. This risk of confrontation goes beyond 1 The Alliance’s Strategic Concept (1999) and the Final Communication, Prague Summit (2002). 2 National Security Strategy (2002). 3 European Security Strategy (2003). 1 Concept Stratégique de l’Alliance (1999) et Communiqué final du Sommet de Prague (2002). 2 National Security Strategy (2002). 3 Stratégie Européenne de Sécurité (2003). 63 Romanian Military Thinking the simple divergences on means or methods and sometimes touches the very substance of strategic ambitions. Deceiving appearances ~ 3/2006 notre inquiétude. Ce risque de confrontation va au-delà de simples divergences de moyens ou de méthodes et touche parfois la substance même des ambitions stratégiques. Apparences trompeuses The limits of the strategic concepts Even if NATO, Europe and the United States administrations work in a rather transparent manner, it does not necessarily mean that the limits of the public documents should be neglected. It is evidently essential that we should deepen, while carrying out an interpretation work, their meanings beyond what is written. The confrontation with the facts is equally necessary although it sometimes proves disconcerting. Two examples are enough to illustrate this aspect. For a few years, the progressively rising tensions pushed Tokyo to register China on the list of its potential enemies in the latest White Book of Defence (December 2004). In February last year, Japan insisted on it once more, while publishing a common declaration with the United States on the threat represented by the emergence of China. With regard to this example, there is a gap between the United States and what is written in their strategic concept4. The same type of example can be given for Europe. It claims to work with Russia for the respect of common values5 but its declarations or its action concerning Chechnya makes us rather smile. As for the community of values with Russia, we consider that is still a relative aspect… These facts help us understand that the strategic concepts are not exactly the direct translation of a vast policy one that would follow them strictly and precisely. They are progressive and far from being exhaustive. For example, Les limites des concepts stratégiques Même si les administrations de l’OTAN, de l’Europe et des Etats-Unis fonctionnent de façon plutôt transparente, il ne faut pas négliger les limites des documents publiques publiés. Il est évidemment indispensable d’approfondir au-delà de ce qui est écrit en effectuant un travail d’interprétation. La confrontation avec les faits est également nécessaire et s’avè re parfois déroutante. Deux exemples suffisent à illustrer cet aspect. Depuis quelques années, la montée progressive des tensions a poussé Tokyo à inscrire la Chine sur la liste de ses ennemis potentiels dans son dernier Livre Blanc de la Défense (décembre 2004). Au mois de février dernier, le Japon a insisté encore davantage, en publiant une déclaration commune avec les États-Unis sur la menace représentée par l’émergence de la Chine. Sur cet exemple, les Etats-Unis sont quelque peu en décalage avec ce qui est écrit dans leur concept stratégique4. Le même type d’exemple peut être donné pour l’Europe. Elle prétend oeuvrer pour le respect de valeurs communes5 avec la Russie. Au regard de ses déclarations ou de son action concernant la Tchétchénie, cette phrase prête plutôt à sourire. Quant à la communauté de valeurs avec la Russie, considérons qu’elle présente encore un aspect relatif … Ceci pour faire comprendre que ces concepts stratégiques ne sont pas exactement la traduction directe d’une grande politique qui les suivrait avec rigueur et précision. Ils sont évolutifs 4 “We welcome the emergence of a strong, peaceful, and prosperous China.” National Security Strategy. 5 “We have to continue making efforts to have closer and closer relationships with Russia, an important element for our security and prosperity. The respect for common values will consolidate the progress that has been made towards a strategic partnership.” European Security Strategy. 4 “We welcome the emergence of a strong, peaceful, and prosperous China.” National Security Strategy. 5 “Nous devrions continuer à oeuvrer pour des relations plus étroites avec la Russie, élément majeur de notre sécurité et de notre prospérité. Le respect de valeurs communes renforcera les progr è s accomplis vers un partenariat stratégique.” Stratégie Européenne de Sécurité. 64 College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity the 2002 National Security Strategy neither approaches nor announces the famous initiative of the “Greater Middle-East” presented at the beginning of 2004. These strategic concepts have to be considered an ensemble of principles and of keys that open the doors of the policies taken, which themselves are rarely exempt from contradictions. In this spirit, it is possible and efficient to compare them. et ne sont pas exhaustifs. Par exemple la “National Security Strategy” de 2002 n’aborde ni n’annonce la fameuse initiative du “Greater Middle-East” présentée début 2004. Ces concepts stratégiques doivent davantage être considérés comme un ensemble de principe et de clefs qui éclairent les politiques menées, elles-mêmes rarement exemptes de contradictions. En gardant cela à l’esprit, il est possible et fructueux de les comparer. Common values Europe, the United States and the Atlantic Alliance are ensembles that interlock on the cultural and historic plane and it is rather difficult to see the differences regarding the values. And, in fact, the respective strategies, each in its way, refer to their own values as to the guarantee of international security. Everyone in fact agrees on the need for democracy, human rights observance and international order. Besides, in contrast to the accepted ideas, the United States is not consistent with the latter one6. They are in sort of original revenge when they evoke the power of liberty and the connection between all forms of liberty (political, religious, economic ...) to build the foundations of security. To this subject, we often qualify the American politics as an almost messianical7 one, a determined exporter of its moral values. Its written strategy reflects this fact, quoting the word liberty for more than forty times. Nevertheless, at this point Europe does almost the same, giving its strategy an evocative title: a safe Europe in a better world. The second part of the sentence has a strong moral dimension. Given the background, should we deduce that we have to deal with any form of guarantee ? Is this division of values sort of a wall between the possible strategic divergences of these poles Valeurs communes L’Europe, les Etats-Unis et l’Alliance Atlantique sont des ensembles très imbriqués sur le plan culturel et historique et il est bien difficile de saisir ce qui les différencie sur le plan des valeurs. Et de fait, les stratégies respectives, chacune dans leur style font référence aux mêmes valeurs pour garantir la sécurité au plan international. Tout le monde en effet s’accorde sur le besoin de démocratie, les droits de l’homme et la nécessité d’un ordre international. D’ailleurs contrairement aux idées reçues, les Etats-Unis ne sont pas en reste sur ce dernier point6. Ils sont en revanche plus originaux quand ils évoquent le pouvoir de la liberté et le lien entre toutes les formes de liberté (politique, religieuse, économique ...) pour bâtir les fondements de la sécurité. A ce sujet, on qualifie souvent la politique américaine de quasi messianique7, exportatrice déterminée de ses valeurs morales. Sa stratégie écrite le reflète en effet, citant le mot liberté plus de quarante fois. Toutefois, sur ce point l’Europe se situe sur une ligne assez proche en donnant à son document de stratégie un titre évocateur: une Europe sûre dans un monde meilleur. Cette seconde partie de phrase porte en elle une forte dimension morale. Cette constatation faite, faut-il en déduire que nous avons là une forme de garantie ? Ce partage des valeurs est-il un rempart aux possibles 6 “We are also guided by the conviction that no nation can build a safer and better world by itself. Alliances and multilateral institutions can multiply the strength of freedom-loving nations.” National Security Strategy. 7 “Today, humanity holds in its hands the opportunity to further freedom’s triumph over all these foes. The United States welcomes our responsibility to lead in this great mission.” National Security Strategy. 6 “We are also guided by the conviction that no nation can build a safer, better world alone. Alliances and multilateral institutions can multiply the strength of freedom-loving nations.” National Security Strategy. 7 “Today, humanity holds in its hands the opportunity to further freedom’s triumph over all these foes. The United States welcomes our responsibility to lead in this great mission.” National Security Strategy. 65 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 of power ? Certainly not. We can even assert that this convergence of values has not ever been at the core of strategic alliances. If one can cite the crusades or the battle of Lepanto as emblematic examples of this type of alliance, one also can give a big number of contrary examples. In Europe, there have been more wars between Christian countries and the ratio is the same in the Arab World. In addition, the divergences of values have never prevented alliances: the one between Francis I and the Sublime Porte or between Roosevelt and Stalin are some to testify to it. One could multiply the examples. In conclusion, the accent laid not only by the leaders, the media but also by the strategic documents 8 themselves on this division of common values is often exaggerated and does not necessarily have strategic consequences. divergences stratégiques de ces grands ensembles ? Certainement pas. On peut même affirmer que la convergence des valeurs dans l’histoire n’a pas souvent été au centre des alliances stratégiques. Si on peut citer les croisades ou la bataille de Lépante comme exemples emblématiques de ce type d’alliance, on peut aussi donner un grand nombre d’exemples a contrario. En Europe, les guerres entre pays chrétiens sont en nombre infini. Même constat dans le monde arabe. En outre, les divergences de valeurs n’ont jamais empêché les alliances: François 1er ou la Sublime Porte, Roosevelt et Staline pourraient en attester. On pourrait multiplier les exemples. En conclusion, l’accent mis par les dirigeants, les médias mais aussi les documents stratégiques eux-mêmes8 sur ce partage de valeurs communes est tr è s largement exagéré et n’a pas nécessairement de conséquence stratégique. Differences in style and method Important differences in style or in method can often appear as a source of serious divergences. If NATO presents a rather neuter style and methods accepted by everyone, while reading the strategic concepts we can see that there are differences between Europe and the United States. Thus, one discovers in the American document a sometimes moralistic and triumphant tone9 that contrasts with the prudent presentation of the European document. Nevertheless, this difference in style, besides national susceptibility, does not have a great strategic weight. On the other hand, a more serious issue is that related to the differences in method. In fact, this second point often directly touches the values themselves or their interpretation. One can, for example, discuss the legitimacy of promoting democracy by war, which is differently perceived Différences de style et de méthode Souvent, des différences importantes de style ou de méthode peuvent apparaître comme une source de graves divergences. Si l’OTAN présente un style assez neutre et des méthodes acceptées de tous, ces différences, à la lecture des concepts stratégiques, apparaissent assez nettement entre l’Europe et les Etats-Unis. Ainsi, on découvre dans le document américain un ton parfois moralisateur et triomphaliste9 qui contraste avec la présentation prudente du document européen. Toutefois, cette différence de style, au-delà des questions de susceptibilité nationale, ne p è se pas d’un grand poids stratégique. En revanche, plus sérieuse est la question des différences de méthode. En effet, ce second point touche souvent directement aux valeurs elles-mêmes ou à leur interprétation. On peut par exemple discuter la légitimité de la promotion de la démocratie par la guerre, perçue 8 “Based on common values (...) the Alliance, even since its creation, has sought to ensure a pacific, just and enduring order in Europe.” The Alliance’s Strategic Concept. 9 “Today, the United States enjoys a position of unparalleled military strength and great economic and political influence.” National Security Strategy. 8 “Sur la base des valeurs communes (...), l’Alliance s’attache depuis sa création à assurer un ordre pacifique juste et durable en Europe.” Concept Stratégique de l’Alliance. 9 “Today, the United States enjoys a position of unparalleled military strength and great economic and political influence.” National Security Strategy. 66 College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity by one party or the other. Besides the method, the just war becomes a subject entirely related to moral order. One can identically analyse the stumbling block constituted by the famous “pre-emptive” war, which reveals different conceptions of the international order 10. Therefore, these differences of methods can reveal deeper divergences that should not be underestimated. Thus, appearances are deceiving. What can appear in the strategic concepts as a common base, as common values, does not practically have any strategic meaning, in reality. What is worse, the divergences that sometimes appear superficial and surmountable can, on the contrary reveal very different background conceptions. The solid convergences différemment de part et d’autre. Au-delà de la méthode, la guerre juste devient alors un sujet d’ordre éminemment moral. On peut à l’identique analyser la pierre d’achoppement constituée par la fameuse guerre “préemptive”, qui révèle des conceptions différentes de l’ordre international10. En conclusion, ces différences de méthodes peuvent donc révéler des divergences plus profondes qu’il ne faut pas sous-estimer. Ainsi, les apparences sont trompeuses. Ce qui peut apparaître dans les concepts stratégiques comme un socle commun, les valeurs communes, n’a en réalité pratiquement aucune signification stratégique. Pire, les divergences paraissant parfois superficielles et surmontables peuvent au contraire révéler des conceptions de fond très différentes. De solides convergences Identical analysis of challenges and threats It is interesting to note that NATO, the United States and Europe have each led the analyses of the important worldwide challenges, close one to the other, but nevertheless different. NATO remains mainly marked by its Euro-Atlantic tropism11, while the United States is more focused on the idea of liberty, capable to resolve all the problems in the political as well as in the economic field. The European concept is strictly geopolitical in this context, analysing a series of worldwide challenges able to generate grave threats: poverty and diseases, underdevelopment, energetic dependence, water (climatic warming), competition for natural resources, migratory movements. For Europe, contrary to the United States, security, more than liberty, is a condition of development, which is Analyse identique des défis et des menaces Il est intéressant de noter que l’OTAN, les Etats-Unis et l’Europe ont chacun conduit des analyses des grands défis mondiaux proches les unes des autres, proches mais toutefois différentes. L’OTAN reste avant tout marqué par son tropisme Euro Atlantique11, tandis que les Etats-Unis sont plus focalisés sur l’idée de liberté, capable en politique comme dans le domaine économique de résoudre tous les problèmes. Le concept européen est plus proprement géopolitique en ce sens qu’il analyse une liste de défis mondiaux capables de générer de graves menaces: la pauvreté et les maladies, le sous-développement, la dépendance énergétique, l’eau (réchauffement climatique), la concurrence pour les ressources naturelles, les mouvements migratoires. Pour l’Europe, au contraire des Etats-Unis, la sécurité plus que 10 “To forestall or prevent such hostile acts by our adversaries, the United States will, if necessary, act pre-emptively.” National Security Strategy. 11 “Certain countries in the Euro-Atlantic region and around it are confronted with major economic, social and political difficulties. The ethnic and religious rivalries, the territorial litigation, the inadequacy or the failure of the efforts on reform, human rights violation and states dissolution may lead to a local or even regional instability.” The Alliance Strategic Concept. 10 “To forestall or prevent such hostile acts by our adversaries, the United States will, if necessary, act preemptively.” National Security Strategy. 11 “Certains pays de la région euro atlantique et alentour sont confrontés à de graves difficultés économiques, sociales et politiques. Des rivalités ethniques et religieuses, des litiges territoriaux, l'inadéquation ou l’échec des efforts de réforme, des violations des droits de l’homme et la dissolution d’Etats peuvent conduire à une instabilité locale et même régionale.” Concept Stratégique de l’Alliance. 67 Romanian Military Thinking a stability factor in itself. Nevertheless, the three actors, NATO included, rejoin on these very common challenges, even if they can prioritise them differently. This convergence in view is again more evident in the threats analysis domain. The three strategic concepts, with not very different formulas, meet again precisely on the need of facing terrorism, proliferation of mass destruction weapons, regional conflicts, corruption and organised crime. The conjugation of all these threats is itself not only an extremely preoccupying global threat12 but also powerful strategic cement between the three poles of power that interest us. In this domain, each knows today that it needs the others (cf. note 6). A global response Each of these three strategic actors “is attached to a global approach of security, which recognises that the political, economic, social and environmental factors are more important than the indispensability of the defence dimension”13. Through the Mediterranean Dialogue, for example, NATO shows its will to act in the political field for the extension and development of the European Union’s Barcelona Process. As for Europe, it is by nature a global geopolitical actor, although militarily limited, the exact opposite of the Atlantic Alliance. There is an evident complementarity nowadays. The United States is powerful in all the dimensions and consequently acts energetically in all domains. But the War in Iraq has for example concealed their action and their considerable expenditures in the framework of the New Millennium Challenge Account, meant to support the development of poor countries and to fight against AIDS and other infectious diseases. This type of actions holds an important place in their security strategy. 12 “The fact that all these elements, terrorism that makes use of maximum violence, the access to weapons of mass destruction, organised crime, the weakness of the state system and the privatisation of the force conjugate, may expose us to extremely serious threats.” The Alliance Strategic Concept. 13 The Alliance Strategic Concept. 68 ~ 3/2006 la liberté est une condition du développement, lui-même facteur de stabilité. Toutefois, les trois acteurs, y compris l’OTAN, se rejoignent sur ces défis communs même s’ils peuvent les hiérarchiser différemment. Cette convergence de vue est encore plus évidente dans le domaine de l’analyse des menaces. Les trois concepts stratégiques, avec des formules peu différentes, se retrouvent précisément sur le besoin de faire face au terrorisme, à la prolifération des armes de destruction massive, aux conflits régionaux et à la déliquescence des états, enfin à la criminalité organisée. La conjugaison de toutes ces menaces constitue une menace globale extrêmement préoccupante 12 mais aussi un ciment stratégique puissant entre les trois pôles de puissance qui nous intéressent. En ce domaine, chacun sait aujourd’hui qu’il a besoin des autres (cf. note 6). Une réponse globale Chacun de ces trois acteurs stratégiques “est attaché à une approche globale de la sécurité, qui reconnaît l'importance des facteurs politiques, économiques, sociaux et environnementaux en plus de l’indispensable dimension de défense”13. A travers le dialogue méditerranéen par exemple, l’OTAN montre sa volonté d’agir sur le champ politique et rejoint le processus européen de Barcelone. L’Europe quant à elle, est par nature un acteur géopolitique global mais militairement limité. L’exact contraire de l’Alliance Atlantique. Il y a aujourd’hui une évidente complémentarité. Les Etats-Unis sont puissants dans toutes les dimensions et en conséquence agissent énergiquement dans tous les domaines. Mais la guerre en Irak a par exemple occulté leur action et leurs dépenses considérables dans le cadre du New Millennium Challenge Account destinées à soutenir le développement des pays pauvres et à lutter contre le Sida et les maladies 12 “Le fait est que la conjugaison de tous ces éléments, un terrorisme fermement résolu à user d’une violence maximale, l’accès à des armes de destruction massive, la criminalité organisée, l’affaiblissement du système étatique et la privatisation de la force, pourrait nous exposer à une menace extrêmement sérieuse.” Stratégie Européenne de Sécurité. 13 Concept Stratégique de l’Alliance. College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity This divided vision on the necessity of a global response to the challenges and threats of our time is fundamental. In fact, through their multiple actions, the three actors create interdependencies and reciprocal needs that force them work together and that convince them of their complementarities. The United States, for example, leaves Europe room for manoeuvre in the Iran file for two reasons: on the one hand they allow for a new approach to this crisis, a less bellicose one, but nevertheless credible, thanks to their support and, on the other hand, they find a means to act non-militarily, as they do not have the capacity to drive a second “Iraq” operation. Thus, the global character of security strongly ties the United States, Europe and NATO and obliges them to have a form of common strategy. The relationships between the three organisations The transatlantic link is seen as a strategic guarantee and its most concrete expression is the Atlantic Alliance itself, although it is not the unique expression of the transatlantic relationships14. The three strategic documents are perfectly convergent on this point. For NATO, the fact is easy to understand, as it is a matter of survival. For the United States, the evaluation is more complex. They accept this central role within the NATO provided that the organisation succeeds in its adaptation15 and, in this framework they welcome rather favourably, at least in principle16, the development of certain European Defence Policy. Nevertheless, the strategic document maliciously presents the EU as a powerful organisation, capable, to some extent, 14 “NATO is an important expression of this relationship” – European Security Strategy. 15 “If NATO succeeds in enacting these changes, the rewards will be a partnership as central to the security and interests of its member states as it was the case during the Cold War”. – National Security Strategy. 16 “At the same time, we welcome our European allies’ efforts to forge a greater foreign policy and defence identity with the EU, and commit ourselves to close consultations to ensure that these developments work with NATO”, National Security Strategy. infectieuses. Ce type d’action tient une place importante dans leur stratégie de sécurité. Cette vision partagée de la nécessité d’une réponse globale aux défis et menaces de notre temps est fondamentale. En effet, à travers leurs actions multiples, nos trois acteurs créent entre eux des dépendances et des besoins réciproques qui les obligent à travailler ensemble et qui les convainquent de leur complémentarité. Les Etats-Unis laissent par exemple une marge de manoeuvre à l’Europe dans le dossier de l’Iran pour deux raisons: d’une part permettre une nouvelle approche de cette crise moins belliciste mais cependant crédible grâce à leur soutien et d’autre part trouver un moyen d’agir non militaire car ils n’ont pas la capacité de conduire une seconde opération “Irak”. Ainsi le caractère global de la sécurité lie fortement les Etats-Unis, l’Europe et l’OTAN et les oblige à une forme de stratégie commune. Les rapports entre les trois organisations Le lien transatlantique est vu comme une garantie stratégique et son expression la plus concrète en est l’Alliance Atlantique elle-même, encore qu’elle n’en soit pas l’expression unique14. Les trois documents stratégiques se rejoignent parfaitement sur ce point. Pour l’OTAN, le fait est aisé à comprendre car il s’agit d’une question de survie. Pour les Etats-Unis, l’évaluation est plus complexe. Ils acceptent ce rôle central de l’OTAN à condition que l’organisation réussisse son adaptation15 et dans ce cadre ils accueillent plutôt favorablement, au moins dans son principe16, le développement d’une politique européenne de défense. Toutefois le document stratégique présente malicieusement l’UE comme une 14 “L’OTAN est une expression importante de cette relation”. Stratégie Européenne de Sécurité. 15 “If NATO succeeds in enacting these changes, the rewards will be a partnership as central to the security and interests of its member states as was the case during the Cold War.” National Security Strategy. 16 “At the same time, we welcome our European allies’ efforts to forge a greater foreign policy and defense identity with the EU, and commit ourselves to close consultations to ensure that these developments work with NATO.” National Security Strategy. 69 Romanian Military Thinking to be a trade partner17, as opposed to NATO, which can be a security partner. Certainly, the transatlantic link still remains strategic for the United States but the ideal position would probably be to spend less for Europe security, having the same control on it. For the European Strategic Concept, the transatlantic relations are one of the essential elements of the international system, not only with regard to the bilateral interests, but also because they reinforce the entire international community. As for NATO, it is considered a multiplicator of force, especially with regard to the agreements called “Berlin Plus”. Mention should be made that this transatlantic link has a special force, as it answers the democratic principles for both parties. Modern democracies have always confronted in a pacifist way, the sixty years of peace in Europe being a good example. In this context, for the countries in Europe, NATO was a “machine” to teach the usage and the democratic functioning of the armed forces and it continues to be the same for the new countries of the Alliance. One can thus consider that the transatlantic link with regard to the three concepts remains a strategic pillar. Nevertheless, its permanence, gained during the Cold War seems to be less evident today. Founded worries Moral incoherences There is today an important distortion between the moral values promoted by the United States – values that are particularly present in the American Strategic Concept – and the political reality. Even if the American document explicitly refutes the relevance of the famous “clash of civilisations”, it is nevertheless rather close to the concept and becomes a reference document for a champion of civilisation and liberty. It is therefore a matter of a moral fight, between the good and the evil. The United States has to expect to be judged 17 70 “Our partner in opening world trade”, ibidem. ~ 3/2006 organisation puissante et capable en tant que … partenaire commercial17 par opposition à l’OTAN, partenaire de sécurité. Assurément, le lien transatlantique reste encore stratégique pour les Etats-Unis mais la situation idéale serait probablement de dépenser moins pour la sécurité de l’Europe tout en maintenant le même contrôle. Pour le concept stratégique européen, les relations transatlantiques constituent un des éléments essentiels du système international, non seulement au regard des intérêts bilatéraux, mais aussi parce qu’elles renforcent la communauté internationale dans son ensemble. L’OTAN quant à elle est considérée comme un multiplicateur de force, en particulier au regard des accords dits de “Berlin plus”. Il faut ajouter que ce lien transatlantique a une force particulière dans le sens où il repose de part et d’autre sur des principes démocratiques. Les démocraties modernes en effet s’affrontent toujours sur des modes pacifiques, les soixante ans de paix en Europe en sont un bel exemple. En ce sens, pour les pays d’Europe, l‘OTAN a été une “machine” à apprendre l’usage et le fonctionnement démocratiques de la force armée et continue de l’être aujourd’hui pour les nouveaux pays de l’alliance. On peut ainsi considérer que le lien transatlantique, au regard des trois concepts demeure un pilier stratégique. Toutefois, sa pérennité acquise pendant la guerre froide semble moins évidente aujourd’hui. Des inquiétudes fondées Incohérences morales Il y a aujourd’hui une distorsion importante entre les valeurs morales promues par les Etats-Unis – valeurs qui sont particulièrement présentes dans le concept stratégique américain – et la réalité de leur politique. Même si le document américain réfute explicitement la pertinence du fameux “choc des civilisations”, il en est toutefois assez proche et se pose comme le document de référence d’un champion de la civilisation de la liberté. Il s’agit donc d’un combat moral, entre le bien et le mal. Les Etats-Unis 17 “Our partner in opening world trade”, ibidem. College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity on the purely moral aspect and it would be done in a harsh manner. The examples in their disfavour are evident, from the status of the prisoners in Guantanamo to the one-way policy that favours Israel, going through the refusal of an international court etc. The credibility of the American policy suffers a lot because of these negative examples and so does the force of the American idealism. The consequences for the relationships with the European continent are rather serious in the long run. It is thus necessary for Europe or NATO to have a more moral policy. The European will to lift the weapons embargo in opposition to China or the partnership of the Alliance with Russia concealing Chechnya are some to testify. But their policies are “morally” less noisy. That is why, may it be wrong or not, in Europe and elsewhere, the conviction that America demands others to have virtues that it does not apply to itself installs. On the other hand, the Americans do not understand that Europe refuses to seriously share the international security burden. This conviction leads, little by little, to a question that each party addresses: do we always have the same values ? That introduces a break in what has been seen, on the two shores of the Ocean, as the cement of the Alliance: the values. Their values do not constitute a strong strategic cement (cf. §1), but the divergence of the values is often the moral justification of strategic divergences. There is therefore a risk. doivent donc s’attendre à être jugés sur l’aspect purement moral. Ils le sont en effet et sévèrement. Les exemples en leur défaveur sont légions, du statut des prisonniers à Guantanamo à la politique à sens unique en faveur d’Israël en passant par le refus d’un tribunal international etc. La crédibilité de la politique américaine souffre beaucoup des ces mauvais exemples, la force de l’idéalisme américain aussi. Les conséquences pour les rapports avec le continent européen sont assez graves dans le long terme. Non pas que l’Europe ou l’OTAN aient une politique plus morale, loin s’en faut. La volonté européenne de lever l’embargo pour les armes à l’encontre de la Chine ou le partenariat de l’Alliance avec la Russie occultant la Tchétchénie peut en attester. Mais leurs politiques sont “moralement” moins bruyantes. Ainsi, à tort ou à raison, s’installe la conviction, en Europe et ailleurs, que l’Amérique exige des autres des vertus qu’elle ne s’applique pas à elle-même. A l’inverse, les Américains ne comprennent pas que l’Europe refuse de partager sérieusement le fardeau de la sécurité internationale. Cette conviction conduit petit à petit à se poser de part et d’autre la question: avons-nous toujours les mêmes valeurs ? Cela introduit une fracture dans ce que les deux rives de l’océan ont toujours vu comme le ciment de leur alliance: les valeurs. Et si les valeurs ne constituent pas un ciment stratégique fort (cf. §1), en revanche la divergence des valeurs est souvent la justification morale de divergences stratégiques. Il y a donc un risque. Major interests in competition Besides the professions of faith full of a lot of good intentions, one finds the reality of the economic issues that almost always lead to strategic issues. If the economic interweaving of the two shores of the Atlantic is strong18, it is far from being totally evident. For example, Des intérêts majeurs en concurrence Au-del à des professions de foi pleines de bonnes intentions, on trouve la réalité des enjeux économiques qui conduisent presque toujours à des enjeux stratégiques. Si l’imbrication économique des deux rives de l’Atlantique est forte18, elle est loin d’être totale évidemment. Par exemple, la dépendance énergétique 18 The United States – the most important investor in Europe and the European Union – the most important investor in the United States. 18 Etats-Unis premier investisseur en Europe, Union Européenne premier investisseur aux Etats-Unis. 71 Romanian Military Thinking the fact that Europe and the United States are not energetically independent19 is one of great concern and, without doubt, constitutes one of the keys to understand the current policy of the United States. Thus, considering, on the one hand, the growing convergence of the European interests and, on the other hand, the American political one, there is room to fear a future strategic clash, which, no matter the form, is present in the written strategic concepts and is already visible in the facts (the War in Iraq, the American presence in Central Asia). This link between the economic and strategic interests is, for example, particularly visible in the crisis that opposes Europe and America in the sale of weapons to China. Robert Zoellick, number two in the American diplomacy20, threats are eloquently related to it. In addition, one can be all the more worried as the United States considers the economic dimension a value in itself (cf. §1) and therefore a pillar of their global strategy of security, being the object of a complete chapter of the National Security Strategy21. In this chapter, the evocation and the wish for a new era of worldwide economic prosperity are seen, naturally and legitimately, as a domination of the American economy. If the Europeans have, without doubt, the same ambition with regard to their own economy, they do not link it so clearly to their security. Nevertheless, there is here evident room for clash, which will not be only economic. The unpredictable NATO Today, the fall of the iron curtain is still too recent for many countries, particularly for those freed from the Soviet yoke, which do not see 19 “The energetic dependence is an issue of great concern for Europe.Europe is the major world importer of oil and gas. Its imports today represent about 50 % from the energy consumption. This percentage may rise to 70 % in 2030.” European Security Strategy. 20 Possible remise in case of certain transfers of technologies towards Europe or arrangements with certain groups of defence (Thal ès, Bae). 21 Chapter 6 : Ignite a New Era of Global Economic Growth through Free Markets and Free Trade. 72 ~ 3/2006 de l’Europe19 et des Etats-Unis est toujours plus préoccupante et constitue sans doute une des clés de compréhension de la politique actuelle des Etats-Unis. Ainsi, considérant d’un côté la convergence croissante des intérêts européens et de l’autre la politique américaine, il y a lieu de craindre un affrontement stratégique futur dont nous ignorons la forme, mais qui est bien présent dans les concepts stratégiques écrits et qui est déjà visible dans les faits (guerre en Irak, présence américaine en Asie centrale). Ce lien entre intérêts économiques et stratégiques est par exemple particulièrement visible dans la crise qui oppose Européens et Américains dans la vente d’armes à la Chine. Les menaces de Robert Zoellick, numéro deux de la diplomatie américaine20 sont à ce sujet très éloquentes. En outre, on peut être d’autant plus inquiet qu’aux Etats-Unis, la dimension économique est une valeur en soi (cf. §1) et donc un pilier de leur stratégie globale de sécurité, faisant même l’objet d’un chapitre complet de la National Security Strategy21. Dans ce chapitre, l’évocation et le souhait d’une nouvelle ère de prospérité économique mondiale sont vus naturellement et légitimement dans le sens d’une domination de l’économie américaine. Si les Européens ont sans doute la même ambition pour leur propre économie, ils ne font pas un lien aussi clair avec leur sécurité. Néanmoins, il y a là un évident terrain d’affrontement, qui ne sera pas uniquement économique. L’inconnue de l’OTAN Aujourd’hui, la chute du rideau de fer est encore trop récente pour que de nombreux pays, particulièrement ceux libérés du joug 19 “La dépendance énergétique constitue pour l’Europe une source de préoccupation particuli ère. L’Europe est le principal importateur mondial de pétrole et de gaz. Ses importations représentent aujourd’hui environ 50 % de la consommation d’énergie. Ce chiffre passera à 70 % en 2030.” Stratégie Européenne de Sécurité. 20 Possible remise en cause de certains transferts de technologies vers l’Europe ou d’arrangements avec certains groupes de défense (Thalès, Bae). 21 Chapter 6: Ignite a New Era of Global Economic Growth through Free Markets and Free Trade. College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity the Atlantic Alliance as a guarantee for their survival. Russia always creates fear, as the Ukrainian example has recently shown, and there is not any other military organisation at the level of the effectiveness of the Alliance nowadays. But, on long term, there are serious limits of this conception. In fact, the 1999 Strategic Concept and the 2002 Prague Summit are of technical nature, as they especially try to counteract the transformations rendered necessary by the modern threats and the expansion in course. They do not answer to the nature that the Alliance must have in the future. Now, this issue is a fundamental one if we want this Alliance to remain at the heart of the transatlantic strategic cooperation. Is it necessary for the Alliance to remain a predominantly regional organisation22 or must it take an actually worldwide dimension as it is suggested, for example, by its action in disarmament or in Afghanistan ? Should the Alliance become a real political actor rather than remain a “supplier of military means” as it currently is ? There are, of course, political ambitions23 but the reality is different and full of traps. The Alliance political ambition will always bump itself to the one of the European Union, while the European Union military ambition will always bump itself to the one of the Alliance. There is here a possible break line. The necessity of a choice, inevitable and impossible, becomes more visible while comparing the written versions of the strategic concepts of the two geopolitical actors. A choice has to be made by both NATO and, especially, by the European Union: how will the European Union translate its slowly taking into consideration of having security responsibilities outside its borders ? How will it cooperate with NATO during this geopolitical maturation phase ? Which will be soviétique, ne trouvent pas dans l’Alliance Atlantique une garantie de survie. La Russie fait toujours peur comme l’exemple ukrainien l’a récemment montré et il n’y a aujourd’hui aucune autre organisation militaire au niveau d’efficacité de l’Alliance. Mais à long terme, il existe de sérieuses limites à cette conception. En effet, le concept stratégique de 1999 et le sommet de Prague de 2002 sont de nature technique, ils cherchent surtout à affronter les transformations rendues nécessaires par les menaces modernes et l’élargissement en cours. Ils ne répondent pas à la nature que doit prendre l’Alliance dans le futur. Or, cette question est fondamentale si on veut que cette alliance reste au cœur de la coopération stratégique transatlantique. Faut-il que l’Alliance reste une organisation à dominante régionale22 ou doit-elle prendre une dimension réellement mondiale comme le suggè re par exemple son action dans le désarmement ou en Afghanistan ? L’Alliance doit-elle devenir un réel acteur politique plutôt que rester un “fournisseur de moyens militaires” comme c’est le cas actuellement ? Les ambitions politiques existent23 mais la réalité est différente et semée d’embûches. L’ambition politique de l’Alliance se heurtera toujours à celle de l’Union Européenne tandis que l’ambition militaire de l’Union Européenne se heurtera toujours à celle de l’Alliance. Il y a là une ligne de fracture possible. La nécessité d’un choix, inévitable et impossible, saute aux yeux dans la lecture comparée des concepts stratégiques de ces deux acteurs géopolitiques. Un choix à faire pour l’OTAN mais aussi et surtout pour l’Union européenne: comment cette dernière va-t-elle traduire sa lente prise de conscience d’avoir des responsabilités de sécurité à l’extérieur de ses frontières ? Comment va-t-elle coopérer avec l’OTAN pendant cette phase de maturation 22 “The Alliance embodies the transatlantic association, capable of establishing a permanent connection between North America and Europe security.” Alliance Strategic Concept. 23 “The essential and immutable goal of the Alliance, as it is announced by the Washington Treaty, consists in safeguarding all its Members liberty and security, through military means”. 22 “L’Alliance incarne l’association transatlantique qui établit un lien permanent entre la sécurité de l’Amérique du Nord et la sécurité de l’Europe.” Concept Stratégique de l’Alliance. 23 “L’objectif essentiel et immuable de l’Alliance, tel qu’il est énoncé dans le Traité de Washington, consiste à sauvegarder la liberté et la sécurité de tous ses membres par des moyens politiques et militaires.” 73 Romanian Military Thinking the attitude of the United States ? There are so many questions that rise as many worries. That is why, at a more careful reading of the respective concepts, should one worry about a future strategic confrontation between these three big poles of power that are the United States, Europe and the Atlantic Alliance ? Has it already begun ? All would lead to believe and to fear it. In contrast to the received ideas, we are not protected by our common values that seem less and less common. Some of our vital interests are in competition and our methods to approach the problems of the world sometimes deeply differ. These pessimistic elements are not very questionable but they must be balanced by two important ideas that allow us to envision the future in a more positive manner. First, these three geopolitical bodies are subjected to the same threats and, today, they need each other to face these threats. Security is in fact a global concept. This very strong link that unites them is a strong guarantee to avoid a future confrontation. On the other hand, this analysis has not approached the central point constituted by the current emergence of new poles of power: particularly China and India. These countries could themselves reveal as an excellent reason to renew the transatlantic partnership. They can sometimes constitute an interesting counterweight to all the American excessive power, a strategic alternative. It is therefore essential for us to identify our strategic divergences in order to profitably strengthen our convergences and thus to face the common and emerging threats together. To be convinced of that, it is enough to listen to the Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, who declared, in 2005 on the occasion of the visit in India of his Chinese counterpart, Wen Jiabio: “Together, India and China are able to redesign the world order” … 74 ~ 3/2006 géopolitique ? Quelle sera l’attitude des Etats-Unis ? Autant de questions qui soulèvent quelques inquiétudes. Ainsi, à la lecture de leurs concepts respectifs, faut-il s’inquiéter d’un futur affrontement stratégique entre ces trois grands pôles de puissance que sont les Etats-Unis, l’Europe et l’Alliance Atlantique ? A-t-il déjà commencé ? Tout porterait à le croire et à le craindre. Contrairement aux idées reçues, nous ne sommes pas protégés par nos valeurs communes qui d’ailleurs à tort, semblent de moins en moins communes. Certains de nos intérêts vitaux sont en concurrence et nos méthodes pour aborder les problè mes du monde divergent parfois profondément. Ces éléments pessimistes sont peu contestables mais ils doivent être pondérés par deux idées d’importance qui nous permettent d’envisager l’avenir de façon plus positive. D’abord, ces trois ensembles géopolitiques sont soumis aux mêmes menaces et ont aujourd’hui besoin les uns des autres pour y faire face. La sécurité est en effet un concept global. Ce lien très fort qui les unit est une garantie puissante pour éviter un affrontement futur. D’autre part, ce travail d’analyse n’a pas abordé le point central constitué par l’émergence actuelle de nouveaux pôles de puissance: la Chine et l’Inde en particulier. Ces pays pourraient se révéler eux aussi comme une excellente raison de renouveler le partenariat transatlantique. Ils peuvent constituer parfois un contrepoids intéressant à la toute puissance américaine, une alternative stratégique certainement pas. Il est ainsi indispensable de bien identifier nos divergences stratégiques afin de fortifier utilement nos convergences et par là même faire face ensemble aux menaces communes et émergentes. Pour s’en convaincre, il n’est que d’écouter le premier ministre indien, Manmohan Singh déclarant en 2005 à l’occasion de la visite en Inde de son homologue chinois, Wen Jiabio: “Ensemble, l’Inde et la Chine peuvent redessiner l’ordre du monde”… WOULD THERE BE LA GUERRE DU NIL AW AR OF THE NILE ? AURA-T -ELLE LIEU ? WAR AURA-T-ELLE The search for hydrocarbons La recherche des and the control of their extraction hydrocarbures et le contrôle seem to constitute the main de leur extraction semblent geopolitical preoccupation of the constituer aujourd’hui la principale governments of the countries préoccupation géopolitique in the world today. However, des gouvernements des pays du water is a much more precious monde. Or, l’eau est une ressource and badly distributed resource, beaucoup plus précieuse et tout and statistics provided by the aussi mal répartie, et les international organisations in this statistiques fournies par les domain are frightening. About organisations internationales 80 countries have difficulties dans ce domaine sont alarmantes. with water supplying and the Près de 80 pays connaissent des worldwide demand should difficultés d’approvisionnement Major Philippe CAVALIER double before 2025, because d’eau et la demande mondiale ~ French Air Forces ~ devrait doubler d’ici 2025, du fait de l’explosion of the demographic explosion and the sociodémographique et du développement socioeconomic development. économique. If nothing is done to stave off these st Si rien n’est fait pour conjurer ces phenomena, the conflicts of the 21 century è nes, les conflits du XXI ème siè cle phénom could take place around the issue of water pourraient avoir lieu autour de la question de la control. Nonetheless, Yves Lacoste, director maîtrise de l’eau. Or Yves Lacoste, directeur of Hérodote Review, estimated in a chapter1 de la revue Hérodote, estimait dans un chapitre1 dedicated to water geopolitics that in spite consacré à la géopolitique de l’eau, que malgré of “the alleged hydropolicy forecasts, water is not “les augures d’une prétendue hydropolitique, l’eau a paramount stake which would explain and justify n’est pas cet enjeu primordial qui expliquerait by itself a water war, but rather an ensemble et qui justifierait à lui seul une guerre de l’eau, of political tensions which have existed for more mais plutôt un ensemble de tensions politiques or less time in an area” and to which the water qui existent depuis plus ou moins longtemps sur issue would only be the catalyst. une région” et dont la question de l’eau ne serait If this analysis is born out for most of the que le catalyseur. Si cette analyse se vérifie sur la plupart Near East conflicts, there is one that seems des conflits du Proche-Orient, il en est un qui to strongly contradict it, the conflict that takes 1 Hérodote Review, nr. 102 published in 2001, included in the Bulletin of documentation of CESA (Centre d’Enseignement Supérieur Aérien, École Militaire, Paris), nr. 558, p. 7. 1 Revue Hérodote no. 102 publiée en 2001, repris dans le Bulletin de documentation du CESA (Centre d’Enseignement Supérieur Aérien, Ecole Militaire, Paris), no. 558, p 7. 75 Romanian Military Thinking shape in the Valley of the Nile regarding the way the water of this river is distributed. It is what we will try to highlight by stressing that, contrary to certain estimates2, the risk of a medium-term conflict is serious. Owing to the fact that it is at the origin of life, settlement, urbanisation, even of our species’ civilisation, water is not a value comparable with other resources on Earth. It is neither energy nor mining but simply vital. Therefore, the risk of a conflict over the Nile waters is not evaluated only through the prism of regional antagonisms and ratios of forces but especially through the one of establishing the moment when one of the nations of the Nile, in an attempt to reach its vital interest, the one of the water, which is the root of any conflict, will raise the question of its survival. In this dramatic scenario, Egypt could be the frangible joint of Nile’s fragile hydropolitical balance. The Nile, a Vital River With its 6 671 km, the Nile is the longest river in the world, it originates in (the White Nile) at the heart of the Great Lakes area. Its basin covers a large sector, six times the surface of France, and extends, with its tributaries, over the territory of ten states. Close to Khartoum, it increases thanks to the Blue Nile, descended from the Ethiopian high plateaus, and Atbara, coming from Eritrea. It then crosses, for 3 000 km, one of the most arid deserts in the world, where its volume regularly diminishes3 because of evaporation and agricultural irrigation4, to flow into a broad delta in the Mediterranean Sea. Because of a succession of cataracts5, the Nile is little navigable. The irrigation and the hydroelectric production constitute the principal 2 See “Géopolitique, constantes et changements dans l’histoire”, A. Chauprade, p. 589, La guerre de l’eau. 3 The Nile pours into the Mediterranean Sea only a quarter of the water collected in its basin. 4 This irrigation represents 85 to 95 % of the overall consumption of water in the Northern countries of the Nile (Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea). 5 These six cataracts are important waterfalls on the Nile. 76 ~ 3/2006 semble la contredire fortement, c’est celui qui se dessine dans la vallée du Nil autour du partage des eaux de ce fleuve. C’est ce que nous allons tenter de mettre en évidence, en soulignant que contrairement à certaines estimations2, le risque de conflit à moyen terme est sérieux. Du fait qu’elle soit à l’origine de la vie, de la sédentarisation, de l’urbanisation, voire des civilisations de notre espèce, l’eau n’est pas une valeur comparable aux autres ressources de la Terre. Elle n’est ni énergétique, ni minière mais simplement vitale. De ce fait, le risque de conflit autour des eaux du Nil ne s’évalue pas seulement à l’état des antagonismes régionaux et des rapports de forces, mais surtout à déterminer le moment où une des nations du Nil aura atteint ses intérêts vitaux, au-del à duquel tout partage, même équitable des eaux, posera la question de sa survie. Dans ce scénario dramatique, l’Egypte pourrait être le point de rupture du fragile équilibre hydropolitique du Nil. Le Nil, un fleuve vital Avec ses 6 671 km, le Nil est le plus long fleuve du monde, il prend sa source (le Nil Blanc) au cœur de la région des Grands Lacs. Son bassin couvre une superficie grande comme six fois la France et s’étend avec ses affluents sur le territoire de dix Etats. Près de Khartoum, il se renforce grâce au Nil Bleu, descendu des hauts plateaux éthiopiens, et à l’Atbara, en provenance de l’Erythrée. Il traverse ensuite sur 3 000 km l’un des déserts les plus arides du monde, où son débit s’appauvrit régulièrement3 du fait des prélèvements de l’évaporation et de l’irrigation agricole4, pour se jeter dans un large delta en mer Méditerranée. Du fait d’une succession de cataractes5, le Nil est peu praticable. L’irrigation et la production 2 Lire “Géopolitique, constantes et changements dans l’histoire”, A. Chauprade, p. 589, La guerre de l’eau. 3 Le Nil ne déverse à la mer Méditerranée que le quart des eaux collectées dans son bassin. Cette irrigation constitue 85 à 95% de la consommation totale de l’eau dans les pays septentrionaux du Nil (Egypte, Soudan, Ethiopie et Erythrée). 4 5 Au nombre de six, ces cataractes sont des chutes d’eau importantes sur le Nil. College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity stakes of this river. Its medium volume of water, estimated at 84 billion m3 a year, is very strongly related to the rain seasons in the high plateaus of the Great Lakes area. Today, an immense reserve, Lake Nasser6, was created through the building of the Aswan Dam. Inaugurated in 1970, this “Pharaonic” work sheltered Egypt from destroying floods (1916), big droughts (1984-1988) and thus from famine, while it has also ensured the electric needs of the country. Egypt, “a Gift of the Nile” 7 on the Edge of Asphyxia hydro-électrique constituent les principaux enjeux de ce fleuve. Son débit moyen, estimé à 84 milliards de m3 par an, est très fortement lié aux saisons des pluies dans les hauts plateaux de la région des Grands Lacs. Aujourd’hui, une immense retenue, le lac Nasser6, a été créée par la construction du barrage d’Assouan. Inauguré en 1970, cet ouvrage “pharaonique” a m is l’ Eg ypte à l ’ a b r i d e s i n o n d a t i o n s destructrices (1916), des grandes sécheresses (1984-1988) et donc de la famine, tout en assurant les besoins électriques du pays. L’Egypte, “un don du Nil” 7 au bord de l’asphyxie As seen from the sky, Egypt (1.8 times France) comes in the form of a huge desert, crossed by a thin blue net, bordered by a green edging. Northwards of Cairo, the greenery widens and forms a green triangle, the Delta. Without this river, the country would not exist. In all, the cultivable and therefore habitable surface represents only 5% of its total surface, the equivalent of the Netherlands. This situation, bearable during centuries, has become a major constraint because of a high population density8 and a continuous fall of the agricultural output today. However, its fresh water resources are among the weakest in the world: 25 m3 per annum and per capita when the critical point assessed by the experts is 1 000 m3. The city of Cairo, convinced that the safety of the country depends on the available vital space, have launched into a series of great irrigation work through the project of creating a new delta very close to the Sudanese border, by Lake Vue du ciel, l’Egypte (1,8 fois la France) se présente sous la forme d’un immense désert, parcouru d’un mince filet bleu, lui-même bordé d’un liseré vert. Au nord du Caire, la verdure s’élargit et forme un triangle vert, le Delta. Sans ce fleuve, le pays n’existerait pas. En tout, la surface cultivable et donc habitable, ne représente que 5% de sa superficie totale soit l’équivalent des Pays-Bas. Cette situation, vivable pendant des siècles, est devenue aujourd’hui une contrainte majeure du fait d’une forte démographie 8 et d’une baisse continue du rendement agricole. Or, ses ressources en eau douce sont parmi les plus faibles du monde: 25 m3 par an et par personne alors que le seuil critique évalué par les experts est de 1 000 m3. Le Caire, convaincu que le salut du pays passe par un important gain d’espace vital, s’est lancé dans une série de grands travaux d’irrigation 550 km length and a maximum capacity of 157 billion m3 (that is to say nearly two years of the Nile flow), Lake Nasser is the second in the world in surface after Lake Kariba on the Zambezi. 7 Famous sentence attributed to Herodotus, Greek historian from the 5th century BC. 8 Its population, which reaches today nearly 70 million inhabitants, must double in the thirty years to come. The demographic density is the highest in the world, with 1 600 inhabitants on km2, four times more than in the Netherlands and far above that of Bangladesh, already considered as extreme. Long de 550 km et d’une capacité maximale de 157 milliards de m3 (soit prè s de deux années de débit du Nil), le lac Nasser est le deuxième du monde en superficie après le lac Kariba sur le Zambèze. 7 Phrase célèbre attribuée à Hérodote, historien grec du Vème siècle av JC. 8 Sa population qui atteint aujourd’hui près de 70 millions d’habitants doit doubler dans les trente ans à venir. La densité démographique est la plus élevée au monde avec 1 600 habitants par km2, quatre fois plus que les Pays-Bas et loin devant celle du Bangladesh, considérée comme déjà extrême. 6 6 77 Romanian Military Thinking Nasser. This project, known as Touchka9 , consists in pumping nearly 10 billion m3 of water per annum in the Aswan Dam to irrigate more than 1.5 million hectares by 2017. However, Egypt already uses its entire annual quota (55 billion m3). It would thus be necessary for it to go through an expensive programme of cutting down damages and loss, like contracting the irrigation canals to reduce evaporation, recycling used water, changing irrigation methods, reducing water-consuming cultures (rice and cotton). All these are not very realistic measures, taking into account the political and financial implications in a country that survives thanks to international assistance only and which is confronted with new problems that are always related to water. Indeed, the apparent abundance of the waters of Lake Nasser has entailed an agricultural over-irrigation, has caused the increase of the ground water and also of the soil salinity. The alluvium, blocked by the dam10, does not enrich the downstream grounds anymore and it has been replaced by chemical fertilisers, whose large-scale use11 has caused important ecological12 and health13 damage, contributing to the alarming pollution of the Nile waters. Results: food production has increased less quickly than population, lands have become less fertile. Thus, 20 years ago, Egypt was self-sufficient, today it imports more than 60% of its food and ranks third in wheat imports. Therefore, Egypt is confronted with water, demographic, social and consequently human stress on large scale, whose more complex equations appear dramatically insoluble every year. ~ 3/2006 dont le projet de création d’un nouveau delta tout près de la frontière soudanaise, au bord du lac Nasser. Ce projet, dit de Touchka9, consiste à pomper près de 10 milliards de m3 d’eau par an dans le barrage d’Assouan pour irriguer d’ici 2017 plus de 1,5 millions d’hectares. Or, l’Egypte utilise déjà la totalité de son quota annuel (55 milliards de m3). Il lui faudrait donc passer par un coûteux programme de diminution des déperditions et des gaspillages, comme le rétrécissement des canaux d’irrigation pour réduire l’évaporation, le recyclage des eaux usées, la modification des méthodes d’irrigation, la réduction des cultures consommatrices d’eau (riz et coton). Autant de mesures peu réalistes compte tenu des implications politiques et financières dans un pays qui ne survit déjà que grâce à l’aide internationale et qui est confronté à de nouveaux problèmes, toujours liés à l’eau. En effet, l’abondance apparente des eaux du Lac Nasser a entraîné une surirrigation agricole, provoqué la remontée des nappes phréatiques et causé l’augmentation de la salinité des sols. Le limon, bloqué par le barrage10, n’enrichit plus les terres en aval et a été remplacé par des engrais chimiques dont l’emploi massif11 a provoqué d’importants dégâts écologiques12 et sanitaires13, contribuant à la pollution alarmante des eaux du Nil. Résultats: la production alimentaire s’est accrue moins vite que la population, les terres sont devenues moins fertiles. Ainsi, il y a 20 ans, l’Egypte était autosuffisante, aujourd’hui, elle importe plus de 60% de sa nourriture et se classe au troisième rang pour les importations de blé. En partie achevé en 2003. Ce qui posera un sérieux problème d’envasement à moyen terme. 11 Avec plus de 400 kg par hectare l’Egypte se classe parmi les plus grands consommateurs d’engrais chimiques au monde. 12 Le lac Mariout en est un dramatique exemple: situé près d’Alexandrie, il est depuis 1959, devenu totalement pollué et nauséabond. 13 Apparition de la bilharziose, née sur les rives du Nil. 9 Partly completed in 2003. 10 That will pose a serious silting problem on medium-term. 11 With more than 400 kg per hectare, Egypt ranks among the largest consumers of artificial fertilisers in the world. 12 Lake Mariout is a dramatic example: located close to Alexandria, it has become completely polluted and nauseous since 1959. 13 Bilharzia appeared, born on the banks of the Nile. 9 78 10 College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity Unless massive international assistance, the only response of Cairo to its “wounds” is to turn again to the Nile and carry out its projects, very expensive as far as water and money are concerned, and that will not happen without influencing the other upstream nations. The Nile, a Conflict-Generating River The relations between the nations of the Nile remain, above all, dictated by the river and the distribution of its waters. In 1987, when he was Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, the former United Nations Secretary, Boutros Gali, stated that “the next war of Egypt would focus on the waters of the Nile”. Dominant power over the river’s basin, Egypt signed agreements with Sudan, its natural ally, to fully utilise the Nile waters in an advantageous way 14. With a galloping demography and a much-reduced available agricultural surface, Egypt showed net signs of aggressiveness when Sudan or Ethiopia, which were draining Nile’s tributaries, manifested the desire to exploit their water resources. Egypt indeed regarded any reduction in its quota, as provided for in the treaty of 1959, as a strategic threat. This treaty, signed with Sudan only, excluded the other countries of the Nile, Ethiopia in particular, which, being offended, has never recognised the agreement. However, 85% of the Nile comes from the Ethiopian territory. Cairo and Khartoum being the main beneficiaries of the river’s waters (65% of the water volume for Egypt, 22% for Sudan), it would only be fair, according to Addis-Ababa, for the treaty of 1959 to be amended. Devastated by thirty years of civil war and confronted with a rapid increase in its population, Ethiopia has hardly exploited the hydraulic 14 These agreements regarding the distribution of the Nile waters, signed in 1959 between Sudan and Egypt, allotted annual quotas: 55.5 billion m3 for Cairo and 18.5 billion for Sudan, on an annual potential estimated at 84 billion per annum. 95% of Egyptian waters come from outside its borders. L’Egypte est donc confrontée à un stress hydrique, démographique, social et par conséquent humain de grande envergure, dont les équations chaque année plus complexes paraissent dramatiquement insolubles. A moins d’une aide internationale massive, Le Caire n’a pour seule réponse à ses “plaies” que de se tourner à nouveau vers le Nil et de réaliser ses projets trè s coûteux tant en eau que pécuniairement, qui ne seront pas sans incidence sur les autres nations en amont. Le Nil, un fleuve générateur de conflits Les relations entre nations du Nil restent, avant tout, dictées par le fleuve et le partage de ses eaux. En 1987, l’ancien secrétaire des Nations unies, M. Boutros Gali affirmait, lorsqu’il était ministre des affaires étrangères de l’Egypte, que “la prochaine guerre de l’Egypte concernerait les eaux du Nil”. Puissance dominante du bassin du fleuve, l’Égypte a signé des accords avec le Soudan, son allié naturel, pour se garantir de manière avantageuse l’essentiel du flux d’eau14. Avec une démographie galopante et une surface agricole utile très réduite, l’Égypte a montré des signes trè s nets d’agressivité dè s que le Soudan ou l’Éthiopie, que drainent les affluents du Nil, ont laissé paraître une volonté d’exploitation de leurs ressources en eau. L’Egypte considère en effet comme une menace stratégique toute diminution de son quota tel que prévu par le traité de 1959. Ce traité, signé avec le Soudan seulement, a exclu les autres pays du Nil et en particulier l’Ethiopie qui, lésée, n’a jamais accepté cet accord. Or 85% du Nil provient du territoire éthiopien. Le Caire et Khartoum étant les principaux bénéficiaires des eaux du fleuve (65% du débit pour l’Égypte, 22% pour le Soudan), il ne serait 14 Ces accords de partage des eaux du Nil, signés en 1959 entre le Soudan et l’Egypte, ont attribué des quotas annuels: 55,5 milliards de m3 pour Le Caire et 18,5 milliard pour le Soudan, sur un potentiel annuel estimé à 84 milliards par an. 95% de l’eau égyptienne provient de l’extérieur de ses frontières. 79 Romanian Military Thinking resources of the Blue Nile and its tributaries15 (hardly 0.3% of their water volume were exploited in 1998). This country cannot give up its programme of making its soil valuable by means of irrigation. The projects taken in consideration by the Ethiopian government would entail a decrease of the Nile regime with eight billion m3 per year and the construction of tens of micro-dams to fight against fatal drought and to produce the electricity that is necessary for its development. The relations with Cairo quickly worsened when the Ethiopian government asked for the reopening of the 1959 treaty between Egypt and Sudan. Ethiopia felt humiliated by the construction of the Aswan Dam without preliminary consultation as well as by the bilateral treaty. It accused Cairo for exceeding its quota, stressing that the treaty had not taken into account the 10 billion m3 (that is to say 12 % of the total water volume of the Nile) lost each year because of the evaporation of Lake Nasser. Addis-Ababa wishes to impose its vision on arranging the Nile by preventing Cairo from carrying out its great hydric projects and by forcing it to sit down at the negotiation table. It happened the same in 1983, when the Southern Sudanese guerrilla, protected and armed by Ethiopia, destroyed the installations and the giant excavation of Jongleï Canal16 in the South of Sudan. This Canal had to allow for a good part of the White Nile waters lost in the marshes of Southern Sudan to be recovered and to increase the total water volume of the Nile in Egypt by 5%. Several times, the tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia have failed degenerating into open conflict. Rather than to fight directly, these two countries confront by means of interposed guerrillas and interposed enemies. Egypt secretly supported the Eritrean independence guerrilla while Ethiopia, in addition to its bonds Between 1990 and 1997, 28 000 ha were irrigated in Ethiopia, while the irrigation potential is of 3.7 million ha. 16 Channel started in 1980, having a length of 360 km, a broad of 28 to 50 m and a depth of 4 to 7 m. 180 km have already been dug. 15 80 ~ 3/2006 que juste, selon Addis-Abeba, que le traité de 1959 soit amendé. Ravagée par trente années de guerre civile et confrontée à une augmentation rapide de sa population, l’Éthiopie n’a guère exploité les ressources hydrauliques du Nil bleu et de ses affluents15 (à peine 0,3% de leurs débits étaient exploités en 1998). Ce pays ne peut, pour des raisons de survie alimentaire, renoncer à son programme de mise en valeur de terres par l’irrigation. Les projets envisagés par le gouvernement éthiopien impliqueraient une baisse du régime du Nil de huit milliards de m3 par an et la construction de dizaines de microbarrages, pour lutter contre les sécheresses meurtrières et produire l’électricité nécessaire à son développement. Les relations avec Le Caire se sont rapidement détériorées lorsque le gouvernement éthiopien a demandé la réouverture du traité de 1959 entre l’Égypte et le Soudan. L’Ethiopie a vécu comme une humiliation la construction du barrage d’Assouan sans consultation préalable ainsi que le traité bilatéral. Elle reproche au Caire de dépasser son quota, soulignant que le traité ne prend pas en compte les 10 milliards de m3 (soit 12% du débit total du Nil) perdus chaque année par évaporation du lac Nasser. Addis-Abeba souhaiterait imposer sa vision de l’aménagement du Nil en empêchant le Caire de réaliser ses grands projets hydriques et en le forçant à s’asseoir à la table des négociations. Comme en 1983, lorsque la guérilla sud soudanaise, protégée et armée par l’Ethiopie, a détruit les installations et l’excavatrice géante du canal de Jongleï16 dans le sud du Soudan. Ce canal devait permettre de récupérer une bonne partie des eaux du Nil Blanc perdues dans les marécages du Sud-Soudan et d’accroître de 5% le débit total du Nil en Egypte. 15 Entre 1990 et 1997, ce sont 28 000 ha de terres qui auraient été mis en irrigation en Éthiopie, alors que le potentiel d’irrigation en Éthiopie est de 3,7 millions d’ha. 16 Canal mis en chantier en 1980, d’une longueur de 360 km, 28 à 50 m de large et 4 à 7 m de profondeur. 180 km ont déjà été creusés. College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity with the Southern Sudanese guerrilla, strongly came close to Israel in the ’80s. An Israeli presence at the sources of the Blue Nile is a true nightmare for Egypt. In this fight for influence with Ethiopia, Sudan is a natural Egypt ally for historical as well as strategic reasons. But Sudan has been devastated since 198317 by an appalling war opposing the North of the country, Muslims and Arabic-speaking people, to the South, mainly Christian and black. This country seems to be an impracticable ground, while its territory18 misses neither water nor fertile ground. The South asserted its self-determination, the separation between state and religion and opposed to the building of Jongleï Canal, for ecological reasons. Egypt has chosen to support the Northern Moslems for the perenniality of Jongleï Canal and for fear that it should see a new Christian country emerging at the sources of the Nile. However, since the 1989 coup in Sudan, which brought the Islamists to power19, Moubarak has been confronted with its Egyptians counterparts, the Moslem Brothers. It is in 1995 that the tension between the two countries culminated, shortly after the failed attempt to murder the Egyptian president while visiting Addis-Ababa. Claimed by an Islamic commando 20, this operation had profited from the logistical support of the regime in Khartoum. If the entire systematisation policy in Sudan is compromised by the chronic instability of the country, the water, the electricity requirements and the prospects for arable land exploitation in the South are immense. However, the rare projects21 conceived by Khartoum only for the Northern area strongly displease Egypt. 17 After the proclamation of Sharia on the entire Sudanese territory. 18 Five times the surface of France. 19 Whose intellectual guide is Hassan Al-Tourabi. 20 Jamaa Islamiya. 21 Projects of the dam in Dongola, Northwards of Khartoum, as well as the development of 1.5 million ha of new arable lands, especially in the desert, are seriously considered, even though they cause great displeasure for Cairo. A plusieurs reprises, les tensions entre l’Egypte et l’Ethiopie ont failli dégénérer en conflit ouvert. Mais plutôt que de se combattre directement, ces deux pays s’affrontent par guérillas et ennemis interposés. L’Egypte a secrètement soutenu la guérilla indépendantiste érythréenne tandis que l’Ethiopie, outre ses liens avec la guérilla sud soudanaise, s’est fortement rapproché d’Israël dans les années 1980. Une présence israélienne aux sources du Nil Bleu est un véritable cauchemar pour l’Egypte. Dans cette lutte d’influence avec l’Ethiopie, le Soudan est un allié naturel de l’Egypte pour des raisons tant historiques que stratégiques. Mais le Soudan est ravagé depuis 1983 17 par une guerre effroyable qui oppose le Nord du pays, musulman et arabophone, au Sud, majoritairement chrétien et noir. Ce pays fait figure d’immense gâchis tant ce territoire18 ne manque ni d’eau ni de terres fertiles. Le Sud revendique l’autodétermination, la séparation entre l’Etat et la religion, et s’oppose au canal de Jongleï pour des raisons écologiques. L’Egypte a choisi le camp du Nord musulman pour la pérennité du canal de Jongleï et par crainte de voir émerger un nouveau pays chrétien sur les sources du Nil. Mais depuis le coup d’état de 1989 au Soudan qui a vu l’arrivée des islamistes au pouvoir 19, Moubarak est confronté à leurs pendants égyptiens, les Frères Musulmans. C’est en 1995 que culmine la tension entre les deux pays, peu aprè s la tentative d’assassinat manquée contre le président égyptien en visite à Addis-Abeba. Revendiquée par un commando islamique20, cette opération avait bénéficié du soutien logistique du régime de Khartoum. Si toute politique d’aménagement d’envergure au Soudan est compromise par l’instabilité chronique du pays, les besoins en eau, en électricité et, les perspectives d’exploitation de terres arables au sud sont immenses. 17 Après la proclamation de la Charia sur l’ensemble du territoire soudanais. 18 Cinq fois la superficie de la France. 19 Dont Hassan al-Tourabi est le maître à penser. 20 La Jamaa Islamiya. 81 Romanian Military Thinking Any stability of the situation in Sudan is therefore a threat for Cairo, which cannot prevent the freedom fighters of the South from developing the exceptional potential of their area. New Consumers in the Great Lakes Area ~ 3/2006 Or, les rares projets21 conçus par Khartoum, pour la seule région du Nord, déplaisent fortement à l’Égypte. Toute stabilité de la situation au Soudan est donc une menace pour Le Caire qui ne pourrait empêcher les indépendantistes du Sud de développer le potentiel exceptionnel de leur région. Des consommateurs nouveaux dans la région des Grands Lacs The increasing population and the economic desire for development also lead the upstream countries to plan to exploit their water resources on a great scale. Tanzania, in particular, studies the possibility of pumping important volumes in Lake Victoria to irrigate 250 000 ha. In Uganda, same as in Ethiopia, the government called upon Israel to set up projects of irrigation aiming at fighting against the effects of the recurring drought. In time, the projects for developing the Nile resources intensify in the bordering countries, causing great distress to Egypt. Overall, it is nearly 4.5 million ha that the governments of the upstream countries plan to irrigate 10 to 15 years from now. Such projects would require approximately 25 billion water m 3, that is to say a quarter of the Nile, and would compromise all the Egyptian hopes and projects. Would Egypt further have the means to impose its vision regarding the distribution of the Nile ? L’augmentation de la population et le désir de développement économique amènent aussi les pays plus en amont à envisager d’exploiter à une grande échelle leurs ressources en eau. La Tanzanie, notamment, étudie la possibilité de pomper d’importants volumes dans le lac Victoria pour irriguer 250 000 ha. En Ouganda, comme en Éthiopie, le gouvernement a fait appel à Israël pour mettre en place des projets d’irrigation visant à lutter contre les effets des sécheresses récurrentes. Avec le temps, les projets de mise en valeur des ressources du Nil se multiplient chez les pays riverains, au grand désarroi de l’Égypte. Au total, ce sont près de 4,5 millions d’ha que les gouvernements des pays d’amont envisagent d’irriguer d’ici 10 à 15 ans. De tels projets nécessiteraient environ 25 milliards de m3 d’eau, soit le quart du Nil, et compromettraient tous les espoirs et les projets égyptiens. L’Égypte a-t-elle les moyens d’imposer longtemps encore sa vision du partage du Nil ? Towards a Negotiated, Not Very Credible Solution ... Vers une solution négociée, peu crédible … The Egyptian water policy must juggle with difficult parameters, tortured by a strong interior pressure, on the one hand, and by an external quite clear pressure on behalf of the other countries of the Nile basin, on the other hand, which has little capitalised on the hydraulic resources up to now. However, these resources, even equitably distributed, are insufficient in quantity and quality to respond to the humane distress that takes shape in this area. According to the principle of communicating vases, without a massive international aid, La politique de l’eau égyptienne doit jongler avec des paramètres difficiles, tenaillée d’un côté par une pression intérieure forte, de l’autre par une pression extérieure toute aussi vive de la part des autres pays du bassin du Nil, qui jusqu’ici ont fort peu mis en valeur leurs ressources hydrauliques. Or, ces ressources, même réparties équitablement, sont insuffisantes 82 21 Un projet de barrage à Dongola, au nord de Khartoum, ainsi que la mise en valeur de 1,5 millions d’ha de nouvelles terres agricoles, notamment dans le désert, sont sérieusement envisagés, au grand déplaisir du Caire. College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity the resolution of the problems of some people will inevitably be made to the detriment of others. An encouraging step was taken in February 1999 under the aegis of the United Nations, then, in June 2001, with the World Bank, which made it possible to bring together the participants, to define priorities for development and to hope for a long term plan of total distribution of the Nile waters to be drawn up. To this end, Egypt was to accept that it does not have individual right on the waters of the river anymore. This is not a very probable prospect, because it would require Nasser and all the Egyptian international policy of the last fifty years to be repudiated. Even if Egypt agreed to let Ethiopia build dams, there would be little chance for the quotas to be approached. However, time runs against Egypt, which cannot politically entrust its future to so many actors as they are neither stable enough nor politically credible. Too much cultural opposition and mistrust divide the countries of the Nile between a black, Christian South and an Arab, North Moslem, while the water demand is felt increasingly. “No other river of this much importance is divided between so many autonomous and disparate actors and no country located downstream a waterway is as dependent on its existence as Egypt is with respect to the Nile”22, this is the tragedy of this area. What will then Egypt do, as the most important military power of the Nile, being on the verge of dying because of the lack of water and threatened in its most fundamental vital interests ? en quantité et en qualité pour répondre à la détresse humanitaire qui se dessine dans cette région. Selon le principe des vases communicants, à moins d’une aide internationale massive, la résolution des problèmes des uns se fera fatalement au détriment des autres. Un pas encourageant avait été franchi en février 1999 sous les auspices des Nations unies, puis en juin 2001 avec la Banque Mondiale, qui avait permis de réunir les intervenants, de définir des priorités de développement et d’espérer, à terme, un plan de partage global des eaux du Nil. Pour cela, l’Égypte devait accepter qu’elle n’ait plus de droit particulier sur les eaux du fleuve. Une perspective peu probable, car il lui faudrait pour cela désavouer Nasser et toute la politique internationale égyptienne depuis les cinquante derniè res années. Si l’Égypte a consenti sur le principe à voir l’Éthiopie bâtir des barrages, la question des quotas a peu de chance d’être abordée. Or, le temps joue contre l’Égypte qui ne peut confier son avenir à autant d’intervenants aussi peu stables et aussi éloignés politiquement. Trop d’opposition et de méfiance culturelles opposent les pays du Nil, entre un sud chrétien, noir et un nord musulman, arabe, alors que les besoins en eau se font de plus en plus sentir. “Aucun autre fleuve de cette importance n’est partagé par tant d’acteurs autonomes et disparates et, aucun pays situé en aval d’une voie d’eau n’est aussi dépendant de son existence que l’Egypte vis- à -vis du Nil”22, c’est là toute la tragédie de cette région. Que fera alors l’Égypte, première puissance militaire du Nil, lorsqu’elle se considè rera au bord de l’agonie par manque d’eau, menacée dans ses intérêts vitaux les plus fondamentaux ? 22 Fragment from “Hydropolitics of the Nile Valley” by John Waterbury, 1979, Syracuse University Press, New York. 22 Extrait de Hydropolitics of the Nile Valley de John Waterbury, 1979, Syracuse University Press, New York. 83 THE UNITED ST STAATES OF AMERICA FOREIGN POLICY IN THE LIGHT OF ITS DOMESTIC HISTOR HISTORYY LA POLITIQUE EXTERIEURE DES ET ETAATS-UNIS D’AMERIQUE À LA LUMIERE DE LEUR HISTOIRE INTERIEURE “The American foreign policy “La politique extérieure explains itself through its domestic américaine s’explique par son history”. This phrase, stated by histoire intérieure”. Cette phrase, the Chief of the French Armed prononcée par le chef d’état-major Forces General Staff in his des armées dans son discours inauguration speech of the twelfth d’inauguration de la XII è me promotion du Collège interarmées series of the Joint Defence College, de défense, offre un regard original offers an original perspective to pour la compréhension des affaires understand the American foreign étrangères américaines. Nous affairs. We share numerous values, partageons avec les Américains economic interests and some de nombreuses valeurs, des long history pages with the intérêts économiques et quelques Americans. Yet, we do not perceive longues pages d’histoire. the world in the same manner, Major Richard ZABOT ~ The French Air Forces ~ Cependant, nous ne percevons our societies not being built on the same foundations anymore. Thus, in order pas le monde de la même façon, nos sociétés to sail, with only a few indicators, in the not n’étant pas édifiées sur les mêmes fondements. always peaceful ocean of the American foreign Ainsi, pour espérer naviguer avec quelques policy, we must become interested in the repères dans l’océan pas toujours pacifique pedestal this great country sits on. The religious de la politique extérieure américaine, il convient persecutions, political oppression or economic de s’intéresser au socle sur lequel repose poverty that made the emigrants settle ce grand pays. Les persécutions religieuses, les in America have determined the establishment oppressions politiques ou la misère économique of some basic values. qui pouss è rent les émigrants à s’installer A thorough reading of their domestic history en Amérique en ont fondé les valeurs de base. allows us to grasp some permanent or occasional Une lecture attentive de leur histoire features. Historic isolationism, which represents intérieure permet de dégager certaines the first temptation, actually illustrates the original caractéristiques, permanentes ou contingentes. and fundamental principles of the first emigrants. L’isolationnisme historique, qui fut la tentation 84 College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity The civilising mission, that spreads in the national conscience little by little, explains the interventionism that will later inspire the American policy for ideological and pragmatic reasons. Understanding these two poles – isolationism and interventionism – will finally allow for the present to clear up and for some perspectives of the United States of America’s foreign policy to be envisaged. Basic Values: “E pluribus unum” 1 The values spread by the United States of America resume the religious precepts of the descendants of the “Pilgrim Fathers”2: the liberty to believe and to practice their own cult, the inalienable and transcending trait of spiritual and material enrichment through work and personal qualities. The Mayflower Compact3 established a real democracy ever since the beginning. In these colonies, any activity seemed to be governed by the church, following the example of Pennsylvania and its capital, Philadelphia, founded by William Penn and his community of Quakers. The moralising character of Puritanism and the meaning given to community have influenced the national character in a long-lasting manner. Quite often, The United States foreign policy, in its moralism, is inspired by these considerations. The reading of the two founding acts of the American democracy clearly unveils their qualities and intentions. On the 4th of July 1776, the Declaration of Independence was adopted. At the same time with the obvious expression of the independent act towards the British Crown, the essential première, illustre en fait les principes originels et fondamentaux des premiers émigrés. La mission civilisatrice, qui va peu à peu se répandre dans la conscience nationale, explique l’interventionnisme qui anima ensuite la politique américaine, pour des raisons idéologiques et pragmatiques. La compréhension de ces deux pôles, isolationnisme et interventionnisme, permettra enfin d’éclairer le présent et d’envisager quelques perspectives de la politique extérieure des Etats-Unis d’Amérique. Valeurs fondatrices: “E pluribus unum” 1 Les valeurs propagées par les Etats-Unis d’Amérique (EU) reprennent les préceptes religieux des descendants des “Pilgrim fathers”2: liberté de croire et de pratiquer leur culte, caractè re inaliénable et transcendant de l’enrichissement spirituel et matériel par le travail et les qualités personnelles. Le pacte du Mayflower3 institue dès les origines une démocratie de fait. En ces colonies, toute activité semble gouvernée par l’Eglise, à l’image de la Pennsylvanie et de sa capitale Philadelphie, fondée par William Penn et sa communauté de Quakers. Le caractère édifiant du puritanisme et le sens donné à la communauté ont affecté de maniè re durable le caractè re national. La politique extérieure des Etats-Unis, dans son moralisme, s’inspire bien souvent de ces considérations. La lecture des deux textes fondateurs de la démocratie américaine en dévoile clairement ses qualités et ses desseins. Le 4 juillet 1776 est promulguée la Déclaration d’indépendance. En même temps que s’y exprime 1 1 Out of many, one. 2 The Pilgrim Fathers were the first Europeans to found a colony in the new world. 3 The name of the vessel on board of which the first pilgrims emigrated. All the passengers united to form a “civil political body” that had the power to draft, based on majority, the laws necessary to the general welfare of the colony. De plusieurs, un seul. Les Pilgrim Fathers (pères pè lerins) sont les premiers européens à avoir fondé une colonie au nouveau monde. 3 Nom du vaisseau à bord duquel émigrè rent les premiers pèlerins. Tous les passagers se réunirent pour former un “corps politique civil” qui avait le pouvoir d'élaborer à la majorité les lois nécessaires au bien général de la colonie. 2 85 Romanian Military Thinking principles on which the existence of this world rests were outlined: anti-colonialism, democracy and, prior to the French Declaration of Human Rights, universalism of respect towards the individual. This political idealism was not only graved in marble but it was also transformed into facts, uprisings and battles aiming at gaining freedom. This utopia in action led to the recognition, on the 3rd of September 1783, of the United States of America’s independence. The constitution ratified in 1787 allowed for the assembly of citizens to make themselves a text according to their beliefs. It reflected the two principles that governed the whole politics of the United States: idealism and pragmatism, remaining a model of clarity and conciseness, flexible enough to admit only twenty seven more amendments in two centuries of existence. The constitution provided the federal government, namely the Congress and the Executive at the same time, with authority over defence, foreign matters and trade policy. A terrible event however showed the limits and the doctrinal character of the Union: the Civil War4. In the thirteen original colonies, two groups took shape: the most important consisted of the puritan colonists of New England in the North of the territory. The second group, the Southern one, catholic, aristocratic, rather reflected a certain art of living close to that of the old continent. The two societies will evolve in parallel, one being devoted to its industrial rise, the other one anchored in the monoculture of cotton. Their common destiny disaggregated under the effect of customs, tax and land constraints imposed on the South by the government5 . 4 This expression is most widely accepted, as against the War of Secession. 5 The government had granted the North a privileged customs tariff for its industrial growth, federal subsidies for transportation and modernisation of its equipment, an advantageous banking system and agricultural free lots. These measures favouring the commercial interests of the North appeared as discriminatory for the South. 86 ~ 3/2006 ostensiblement l’acte d’indépendance vis-à-vis de la couronne anglaise, se dessinent les principes essentiels sur lesquels repose l’existence de ce nouveau monde: anticolonialisme, démocratie, et bien avant la Déclaration française des droits de l’Homme, universalisme du respect de l’individu. Cet idéalisme politique n’est pas seulement gravé dans le marbre: il se mue en actes, en soulèvements et en batailles visant à la conquête de la liberté. Cette utopie en action aboutit à la reconnaissance de l’indépendance des Etats-Unis d’Amérique le 3 septembre 1783. La constitution ratifiée en 1787 permet ensuite à une telle assemblée de citoyens de se doter d’un texte à la mesure de leurs convictions. Elle reflè te les deux principes régissant toute la politique des Etats-Unis: idéalisme et pragmatisme. Elle demeure un modèle de clarté et de concision, suffisamment souple pour admettre seulement vingt sept amendements en plus de deux si è cles d’existence. Elle donne à l’Etat fédéral, c’est-à-dire conjointement au Congrè s et à l’exécutif, un pouvoir sur la défense, les affaires extérieures et la politique commerciale. Un terrible événement montre pourtant les limites et le caractère doctrinal de l’Union: la guerre de sécession4. Dans les treize colonies originelles, deux groupes se dessinent: le plus important est constitué par les colonies puritaines de la Nouvelle-Angleterre dans le nord du territoire. Le deuxième groupe, celui du Sud, catholique, volontiers aristocratique, reflète plutôt un certain art de vivre proche de celui du vieux continent. Les deux sociétés vont alors évoluer parallèlement, l’une se consacrant à son essor industriel, l’autre ancrée dans la monoculture du coton. Leur destinée commune se désagr è ge sous l’effet de contraintes douanières, fiscales et foncières imposées au Sud par le gouvernement5. L’esclavage, pudiquement Les américains la nomment “guerre civile”. Le gouvernement avait accordé au Nord un tarif douanier privilégié pour sa croissance industrielle, des subventions fédérales pour le transport et la modernisation de son équipement, un système bancaire avantageux et des parcelles agricoles gratuites. 4 5 College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity Slavery, moderately named “the particular institution” by the founding fathers, crystallises the antagonism between these two types of society. The Civil War is very often reduced to a confrontation between abolitionists and slave-owners by the Manicheans spirits. However, it is a war of societies, above all. In this context, one of the best commanders of this war, General Robert Lee, is a Southerner but convinced abolitionist, too attached to its ground not to serve the South. In this total war, the victory of one camp or another will decide the inflection of the course of history. The defeat of the South in 1865 in Appomattox imposes the Northern society as model for the federation. The arguments which encourage the North to intervene against the South can appear as the premises of the reasons for which the American army gets involved in the world today: a well understood defence of their interests haloed in a certain moralism. However, foreign policy remains outside their concern for a long time, following George Washington’ principle: “Why quit our own to stand upon foreign ground ? Why, by interweaving our destiny with that of any part of Europe, entangle our peace and prosperity in the toils of European ambition, rivalship, interest, humour, or caprice ?”. The wish of the first president is to preserve the young nation in its original mould, conscious that any friction with another part of the world can harm the peace and justice emanating from this original society. The isolationist doctrine was theorised by President Monroe (1817-1825). The United States promise not to get involved in the European matters, in exchange for a non-intervention of the European states on the American continent. This is, in a way, “Americans’ America”. This current of thought is still broadly defended today when it comes to foreign policy. The deeds of arms of this doctrine are numerous: the pressure exerted on the French after 1865 so that they withdraw from their Mexican expedition, the war won against the Spaniards nommé “l’institution particulière” par les pères fondateurs, va cristalliser l’antagonisme de ces deux types de société. La guerre de sécession est bien souvent réduite dans les esprits manichéens à un affrontement entre abolitionnistes et esclavagistes. Or, elle est avant tout une guerre de sociétés. A ce titre, l’un des meilleurs chefs de cette guerre, le général Robert Lee, est sudiste mais abolitionniste convaincu, trop attaché à sa terre pour ne pas servir le Sud. Dans cette guerre totale, la victoire de l’un ou de l’autre camp décidera de l’inflexion que prendra le cours de l’histoire. La défaite du Sud en 1865 à Appomattox impose la société du Nord en mod è le pour la fédération. Les arguments qui incitèrent le Nord à intervenir contre le Sud peuvent apparaître comme les prémices des raisons pour lesquelles l’armée américaine s’engage aujourd’hui dans le monde: une défense bien comprise de leurs intérêts nimbée dans un certain moralisme. Pourtant, la politique étrangère est restée longtemps extérieure à leurs soucis, suivant en cela le précepte de George Washington: “Pourquoi quitter notre propre sol pour se tenir sur une terre étrangère ? Pourquoi, en entrelaçant notre destin avec celui d’une quelconque part de l’Europe, empêtrer notre paix et notre prospérité dans les labeurs des ambitions, rivalités, intérêts, humeurs ou caprices européens ?”. Le vœu du premier président est de conserver la jeune nation dans son moule originel, conscient que toute friction avec une autre partie du monde pourrait nuire à la paix et la justice émanant de cette société originale. La doctrine isolationniste a été théorisée par le président Monroe (1817-1825). Les EtatsUnis promettent de ne pas s’engager dans les affaires européennes, en échange d’une non intervention des Etats européens sur le continent américain. C’est en quelque sorte “l’Amérique aux Américains”. Ce courant de pensée est encore aujourd’hui largement défendu en matière de politique étrangère. Les faits d’armes de cette Pour le Sud, de telles mesures favorisant les intérêts commerciaux du Nord apparaissaient comme discriminatoires. 87 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 in 18986, or even the Cuban missile crisis7 Central America has always appeared as the “private hunting ground” of Americans. The idea of a civilising mission of the United States, its “manifest destiny”, takes shape around 1845. It is justified by their model of infallible development founded on liberal democracy and Christian faith. This principle is conjugated according to two main trends – realism and idealism, which form the plinth of the American foreign policy. The latter remains resolutely isolationist as long as the American interests are not concerned. The end of the 19th century reveals the beginning of an expansionism centred on the search for raw materials and markets to sell their products. In 1901, the election of Theodore Roosevelt marked the entry in a policy of realism. This is the beginning of the involvement in world matters, for the triumph of American interests in their zone of influence – the Caribbean and Latin America – on the one hand, and for maintaining the position of a new power, on the other hand: the participation in The Hague Conference in 1907, the mediation for putting an end to the Sino-Japanese war, signed in the United States etc. The United States’ entry into the First World War is related to trade interests8 and principles: the undeniable preference of President Woodrow Wilson goes to the English and French democracies. The American Army during that time had neither permanent doctrine sont légion: pressions exercées sur les Français après 1865 pour qu’ils se retirent de leur expédition mexicaine, guerre gagnée contre les Espagnols en 18986, ou même affaire des missiles de Cuba7. L’Amérique centrale a toujours parue comme la “chasse gardée” des Américains. L’idée d’une mission civilisatrice des Etats-Unis, la “destinée manifeste”, se forme autour des années 1845. Elle est justifiée par leur modèle de développement infaillible fondé sur la démocratie libérale et la foi chrétienne. Ce principe se conjugue selon les deux grandes orientations, réalisme et idéalisme, qui forment le socle de la politique étrangère américaine. Cette dernière est restée résolument isolationniste tant que les intérêts américains n’étaient pas en jeu. La fin du XIXème siècle révèle le début d’un expansionnisme axé sur la recherche de matières premières et de débouchés pour leur production. En 1901, l’élection de Théodore Roosevelt marque l’entrée dans une politique de réalisme. C’est le début d’une implication dans les affaires du monde, pour le triomphe des intérêts américains dans leur zone d’influence – Caraïbes et Amérique Latine – d’une part, et pour la tenue de son rang de nouvelle puissance d’autre part: participation à la conférence de La Haye en 1907, médiation pour la fin de la guerre sino-japonaise signée aux Etats-Unis etc. L’entrée des Etats-Unis dans la Première Guerre mondiale est liée à des raisons d’intérêts commerciaux8 et de principes: la préférence 6 The war broke out, encouraged by the press, after the explosion of the battleship “Maine” in Cuban waters. The Spaniards were accused of it, although it is notorious that there was an “accidental” explosion on board. 7 Kennedy won this poker game in the media, whereas the retreat of the Soviet missiles from Cuba was negotiated against the dismantling of the American missiles from Turkey. 8 The safeguard of the amounts demanded from the allies and the restoration of the commercial liaisons in the fight against the submarines led by the German Navy were invoked. 6 Le déclenchement de cette guerre, encouragée par la presse, se fit après l’explosion du cuirassé “Maine” au large de Cuba. Les Espagnols furent accusés, alors qu’il est notoire qu’il s’agissait d’une explosion “accidentelle” à bord. 7 La partie de poker a été gagnée médiatiquement par Kennedy, alors que le retrait des missiles soviétiques de Cuba a été négocié contre le démant èlement des missiles américains de Turquie. 8 La sauvegarde des sommes prêtées aux alliés et le rétablissement des liaisons commerciales en luttant contre la guerre sous-marine menée par la marine allemande furent invoqués. 88 College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity structure nor true tradition. The American spirit of initiative and organising genius however made it possible for the allies to win. At the end of the war, Wilson exclaimed: “America, the only ideal nation, had the infinite privilege to respect its destiny. We came to free the world by giving it freedom and justice”. Today, the “neoconservatives”, asserted successors of the Wilsonians, believe in the superiority of the American model and militate for a democratic proselytism in the world. This mission goes together with the idea that the military power must ensure its domination and perenniality. It is what was partly decided through the engagement of the United States in the second Gulf War, with the hope to stabilise the Middle East in due time. “It is mainly the Wilsonian idealism which has given its rhythm to the American policy from its historical presidency, and which still inspires it today”9. Wilson is however “caught up” by the domestic reality: during his absence, the Republicans regained majority in the Congress, and the Senate refused to ratify the Treaty of Versailles as well as to apply for membership of the League of Nations. Since 1920, they have returned to strict neutrality, resuming their customs protectionism and unquestionable isolationism. The Prometheus-like Foreign Policy: Freedom Guiding the World The era of Franklin Delano Roosevelt10 announced a reforming and interventionist policy. The awareness of being a great nation gave him faith in the virtues of the foreign action. The bases of the current American foreign policy were thus laid: contrary to the previous administrations marked by a primary and passive anticommunism, he acknowledged the Soviet Union and China in 1933. He worked to put the widely isolationist opinion in front of realities. 9 Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy, Fayard, 1996. The nephew of President Theodore Roosevelt. 10 incontestable du président Woodrow Wilson va aux démocraties anglaise et française. L’armée américaine d’alors ne dispose ni de structure permanente ni de véritable tradition. L’esprit d’entreprise et le génie organisateur américain vont pourtant permettre aux alliés d’emporter la victoire. A la fin de la guerre, Wilson s’écrie: “L’Amérique, la seule nation idéale a eu l’infini privil è ge de respecter sa destinée. Nous sommes venus pour racheter le monde en lui donnant liberté et justice”. Aujourd’hui, les “néoconservateurs”, successeurs affirmés des wilsoniens, croient en la supériorité du modèle américain et militent pour un prosélytisme démocratique dans le monde. Cette mission se combine avec l’idée que la puissance militaire doit assurer sa domination et sa pérennité. C’est ce qui a décidé en partie l’engagement des Etats-Unis dans la deuxième guerre du Golfe, avec l’espoir de stabiliser à terme le Proche-Orient. “C’est principalement l’idéalisme wilsonien qui a imprimé son rythme à la politique américaine depuis sa présidence historique, et qui l’inspire aujourd’hui encore”9. Wilson est pourtant rattrapé par la réalité intérieure: pendant son absence, les Républicains ont repris la majorité au Congrès, et le Sénat refuse de ratifier le traité de Versailles ainsi que l’appartenance à la Société des nations. Dès 1920, ils en reviennent à une stricte neutralité, reprenant leur protectionnisme douanier en même temps qu’un isolationnisme certain. Politique extérieure prométhéenne: la Liberté guidant le monde L’ère de Franklin Delano Roosevelt10 annonce une politique réformatrice et interventionniste. La conscience d’être une grande nation lui donne foi dans les vertus de l’action extérieure. Les bases de la politique étrangère américaine actuelle sont ainsi lancées: contrairement aux précédentes administrations sclérosées dans 9 Henry Kissinger, Diplomatie, Fayard, 1996. Neveu du président Théodore Roosevelt. 10 89 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 He pleaded for the progressive abandonment of neutrality through an idea in conformity with the inspiration of the United States: democracies against dictatorships. Through this title, he wanted to amend the law related to neutrality and exceeded the 10th amendment by being re-elected for the third time in 1940, while Europe sinks itself in the war11. But he owed his re-election to the promise he had made not to get involved in the war. However, the United States had already committed to it by arming democracies thanks to Liberty ships12 and by signing the Atlantic Charter, in 1941, proof of a strategic will of anticipation and preparation for a non-isolationist future. The bombardment of Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941 made the United States enter the war. The war could have been declared to Japan, but because of the game of alliances, it was the Nazi Germany that declared it to the United States at the end of 1941. The great war effort led to victory. After an attempt to return to the isolationist sources, the United States assumed responsibility during the Cold War and faced the fear inspired by the Soviet imperialism. Aware of their Western leadership, they became involved for the “free world”: the adhesion to the United Nations in 1946, the Marshall Plan for European recovery etc. They grouped all anticommunist countries. This pragmatism involved, of course, tolerance towards the dictatorships from Chile, Franco in Spain or the Greek colonels. However, the true strategy was not dogmatic: the economic success was set up as barrier to communism and partly led to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, “the Empire of Evil” according to President Reagan. Since the end of the Cold War, certain inertia seemed to have gained the upper hand. un anticommunisme primaire et passif, il reconnaît en 1933 l’Union soviétique et la Chine. Il travaille à mettre l’opinion largement isolationniste en face des réalités. Il œuvre pour l’abandon progressif de la neutralité dans une idée conforme à l’inspiration des Etats-Unis: les démocraties contre les dictatures. Il fait à ce titre amender la loi relative à la neutralité et outrepasse le 10ème amendement en se faisant réélire une troisième fois en 1940 alors que l’Europe s’enfonce dans la guerre11. Mais il doit sa réélection à la promesse qu’il a fait de ne pas s’engager dans la guerre. Cependant, les Etats-Unis ont déjà pris parti en armant les démocraties grâce aux Liberty ships12 et en signant dès 1941 la Charte de l’Atlantique, preuve d’une volonté d’anticipation stratégique et de préparation d’un avenir non isolationniste. Le bombardement de Pearl Harbor le 7 décembre 1941 jette les Etats-Unis dans le conflit par la volonté de l’ennemi. La guerre peut être déclarée au Japon, et par le jeu des alliances, c’est l’Allemagne nazie qui la déclare aux Etats-Unis en fin 1941. L’effort de guerre important aboutit à la victoire. Apr è s une tentative de retour aux sources isolationnistes, les Etats-Unis assument leur responsabilité pendant la guerre froide et font face à la crainte qu’inspire l’impérialisme soviétique. Conscients de leur leadership occidental, ils s’impliquent pour le “monde libre”: adhésion à l’Organisation des Nations-unies en 1946, plan Marshall pour la reconstruction de l’Europe, etc. Ils fédèrent tous les pays anticommunistes. Ce pragmatisme entraîne bien sûr des tolérances envers les dictatures du Chili, de Franco en Espagne ou des colonels grecs. La véritable stratégie n’est cependant pas dogmatique: la réussite économique est érigée en barrage au communisme et conduit en partie à la déstructuration de l’Union soviétique, “l’Empire du mal” selon le président Reagan. 11 He was even re-elected, for the fourth time, in 1944, illustrating the saying according to which one does not change the commander in chief in wartime ! 12 Name given to the freighters the Americans used ever since the beginning of the Second World War in order to deliver equipment to the United Kingdom. 11 Il a même été réélu une quatrième fois en 1944, illustrant l’adage qu’on ne change pas le commandant en chef pendant la guerre ! 12 Nom donné aux cargos que les américains utilisent dès le début de la Seconde Guerre mondiale pour livrer du matériel au Royaume-Uni. 90 College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity The engagements of the American Army were subjected to the Weinberger Doctrine: following the traumatism of the Vietnam War, Caspar Weinberger, Secretary of State for Defense (1984-1986) worked out criteria preliminary to the engagement of American troops: ultimate drive, legitimacy of objectives, popular support. General Colin Powell supplemented these doctrines by adding the will of a decisive and fast victory with a minimum of human losses. Reality: Inheritance of their History The September 11, 2001 attacks represented an unprecedented shock, where the United States domestic history was caught up by their foreign policy. To want to find causes for this appalling terrorist action is a delicate undertaking. This event can nevertheless be analysed as the single moment when the two pivots of the American foreign policy, isolationism and interventionism, collided under the pressure of an exacerbated anti-American feeling. The anti-Americanism feeds itself, on a partial vision, on the American foreign policy. It focuses itself on an ostentatiously unfair fraction: the pro-Zionist policy in the Near East to the Palestinian cause’s detriment, the imperious defence of their economic interests against less advanced countries, the stimulation of a state of siege when facing a growing world insecurity etc. The moral or partisan principles that seem to guide the American action in the world adapt sometimes badly to this force, whose effects on the ground and in the public opinion are devastating. Without focusing on this event or the operations that followed, it is possible to explain the continuity of the American foreign policy over some domains of predilection. One often accuses the Americans to be colonisers. They could be considered colonisers only on their territory. The acquisition Depuis la fin de la guerre froide, une certaine inertie avait semble-t-il pris le dessus. Les engagements de l’armée américaine étaient soumis à la doctrine Weinberger: suite au traumatisme de la guerre du Vietnam, Caspar Weinberger, secrétaire d’Etat à la défense (1984-1986) a élaboré des critères préalables à l’engagement de troupes américaines: ultime ressort, légitimité des objectifs, soutien populaire. Le Général Colin Powell a complété cette doctrine en y ajoutant la volonté d’une victoire décisive et rapide avec un minimum de pertes humaines. Réalité: héritage de leur histoire Les attentats du 11 septembre 2001 constituent un choc sans précédent où l’histoire intérieure des Etats-Unis est rattrapée par sa politique extérieure. Vouloir trouver des causes à cette effroyable action terroriste est une entreprise délicate. Cet événement peut néanmoins être analysé comme le moment unique où les deux pivots de la politique extérieure américaine, isolationnisme et interventionnisme, se percutent sous la pression d’un sentiment anti-américain exacerbé. L’anti-américanisme se nourrit d’une vision partiale de la politique extérieure américaine. Il se focalise sur sa fraction ostensiblement injuste: politique pro-sioniste au Proche-Orient au dépens de la cause palestinienne, défense impérieuse de leurs intérêts économiques contre des pays moins avancés, repli obsidional face à une insécurité mondiale grandissante, etc. Les principes moraux ou partisans qui semblent guider l’action américaine dans le monde s’accommodent parfois mal de cette force dont les effets sur le terrain et dans les opinions sont dévastateurs. Sans se polariser sur cet événement ou les opérations qui ont suivi, il est possible d’expliquer d’une manière dépassionnée les continuités de la politique extérieure américaine à travers quelques domaines de prédilection. On accuse souvent les Américains d’être colonisateurs. Si les Américains sont un peuple colonisateur, ils l’ont été uniquement sur leur territoire. L’acquisition des territoires de la Louisiane en 1803 a déclenché la célèbre ruée 91 Romanian Military Thinking of the territories in Louisiana, in 1803, started the famous rush towards West. Homestadt Act, which made possible for any person to become the owner of a cultivated patch of land for five years, was a driving force of this “colonisation”. On the other hand, the Amerindians were the victims sacrificed on the altar of the great American Dream and disappeared from history13. The anticolonialism is a constructive value of the United States: the American imperialism so often described is primarily founded on the export of commercial, cultural or political values, without importers losing their sovereignty. Instead of invading Canada as they could have done after the Civil War, they preferred giving it independence in agreement to England; having conquered Mexico, they preferred annexing Texas, where the majority of people were English-speakers. They refused the annexations in the Caribbean, gave up colonising Cuba, engaged the decolonisation of Philippines before 1939 and abandoned their bases in countries like France, Philippines, Japan, and, today, Saudi Arabia. If territories must be “won” today, they will do that freely. It is possible to imagine that Puerto Rico, currently free state associated to the United States, might ask to become the 51st state of the Union. It is quite a different logic from the one used for the Operation “Iraqi Freedom”; this invasion could however be received as a new form of colonisation aiming at securing the seizure on the world oil-bearing richness. The American oil import represents more than 60% of their domestic consumption. Contrary to a widespread idea, this growing dependence does not force the United States to make their supplying source exclusive. In the event of crisis in a good producing country, 13 North America counted more than 12 million Indians at the commencement of the European conquest. At the beginning of the 20th century, only 237 000 were left. 92 ~ 3/2006 vers l’Ouest. L’Homestadt Act, qui permet alors à toute personne de devenir propriétaire d’un lopin de terre cultivé pendant cinq ans, est un élément moteur de cette “colonisation”. En contrepartie, les Amérindiens furent les victimes sacrifiées sur l’autel du grand rêve américain, et les disparus de l’histoire13. L’anti-colonialisme est une valeur constructive des Etats-Unis: l’impérialisme américain si souvent décrié est essentiellement fondé sur l’exportation de valeurs marchandes, culturelles ou politiques, sans perte de souveraineté des pays. Au lieu d’envahir le Canada comme ils pouvaient le faire après la guerre de Sécession, ils ont préféré lui donner l’indépendance en accord avec l’Angleterre; après avoir vaincu le Mexique, ils se sont contentés d’annexer le Texas où les anglophones étaient majoritaires. Ils ont refusé les annexions dans la Caraïbe, renoncé à coloniser Cuba, engagé la décolonisation des Philippines avant 1939 comme ils ont toujours abandonné leurs bases dans les pays qui en faisaient la demande (France, Philippines, Japon, et aujourd’hui Arabie saoudite). Si aujourd’hui des territoires doivent être “gagnés”, ils le seront librement. Il est possible d’imaginer que Porto Rico, actuellement Etat libre associé aux Etats-Unis, puisse à sa demande devenir le 51ème de l’Union. C’est dans une tout autre logique que l’Opération “Iraqi Freedom” a été lancée; cette invasion a pourtant pu être perçue comme une nouvelle forme de colonisation visant à s’assurer la mainmise sur les richesses pétrolifères mondiales. Les importations pétrolières américaines représentent plus de 60% de leur consommation intérieure. Contrairement à une idée répandue, cette dépendance grandissante n’oblige pas les Etats-Unis à rendre exclusive leur source d’approvisionnement. En cas de crise dans un pays producteur, le principal risque est celui d’une hausse des prix préjudiciable à l’économie 13 L’Amérique du Nord comptait plus de 12 millions d’Indiens à la veille de la conquête européenne. Il n’en restait que 237 000 au début du XXème siècle. College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity the principal risk is that of a rise of the prices, which is prejudicial to the American and world economy14. In order to mitigate this, they seek to support a geographically diversified production, the expenses for exploration and production being supported by them alone for the moment. They must ensure the security of oil flows at the same time. That explains the increased presence of American forces in strategic zones: Bab El Mandeb, Strait of Hormuz, Iraq etc. Perspectives: Hyperpower in Search of ReliableValues The United States constitutes an unequalled hyperpower15 today. A certain suspicion yet persists: the world, as seen from Washington, would be the “private hunting ground” of America. The Americans suffer from having a bad image because of the opacity of their intentions16 and, perhaps, because the intrinsic contradictions between isolationism and interventionism. This rejection is expressed by a harmful counter-culture of their economic interests and by an exasperated violence, dangerous for the safety of the American citizens. That is 14 The true autonomy corresponds to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) whose stocked volume temporarily allows remedying a rupture in the worldwide supplying. “A way to explain why the SPR was not used during previous oil crises consists in concluding that it is reserved in case a major crisis would arise in Saudi Arabia, this country being the only one able to rapidly increase its production in significant proportions. There is no official document to confirm this hypothesis”, Pierre Noël, Les EU et la sécurité pétrolière mondiale, Ramses, 2005. 15 Hubert Védrine used this term for the first time in Jeune Afrique, February 24, 1998. A hyperpower is a power that possesses, at a given moment, the supremacy without possible rivalry in four key domains: military, economic, technological and cultural. 16 One cannot certify anything when it comes to geopolitics: who can prove that, in twenty years, one will not celebrate their engagement in Iraq as a “false step” taken in the right direction ? américaine et mondiale 14. Pour y pallier, ils cherchent à favoriser une production géographiquement diversifiée, dont ils supportent seuls pour l’instant les coûts d’exploration et de production. Ils doivent assurer dans le même temps la sécurisation des flux pétroliers. Cela explique une présence accrue des forces américaines en des zones stratégiques: Bab El Manded, détroit d’Ormuz, Irak etc. Perspectives: hyper puissance à la recherche de valeurs sûres Les États-Unis constituent aujourd’hui une hyperpuissance15 inégalée. Une certaine suspicion est de mise: le monde, vu de Washington, serait la “chasse gardée” de l’Amérique. Les Américains pâtissent d’une mauvaise image, de l’opacité de leurs intentions16 et peut-être des contradictions intrinsèques entre isolationnisme et interventionnisme. Ce rejet s’exprime par une contre-culture nocive à leurs intérêts économiques et par une violence exaspérée, dangereuse pour la sécurité des citoyens américains. Cela est nuisible 14 La véritable autonomie correspond à la Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) dont le volume stocké permet de remédier temporairement à une rupture dans l’approvisionnement mondial. “Une mani è re d’expliquer le défaut d’utilisation de la SPR lors des crises pétrolières précédentes consiste à considérer qu’elle est de fait réservée pour le cas où une crise majeure surviendrait en Arabie saoudite, ce pays étant le seul à pouvoir augmenter rapidement sa production dans des proportions significatives. Il n’existe pas de document officiel confirmant cette hypoth è se”, Pierre Noël, “Les EU et la sécurité pétrolière mondiale”. Ramses 2005. 15 Ce terme fut employé la première fois par Hubert Védrine dans Jeune Afrique du 24 février 1998. Une hyperpuissance est une puissance possédant momentanément, sans rivalité possible, la suprématie dans les quatre domaines clé: militaire, économique, technologique et culturel. 16 On ne peut rien certifier en matière de géopolitique: qui prouve que dans vingt ans, on ne célébrera pas leur engagement en Irak comme un “faux pas” dans la bonne direction ? 93 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 harmful to their elementary aspirations born from their domestic history: safety on their premises and commercial wealth in the world. The perspectives are conceivable. Today, dismantling the American troops from Europe and Asia constitutes the most important reorganisation of the American military presence abroad since the Second World War 17. This withdrawal does not fit in the imperialist vision of their policy. A new form of the Weinberger Doctrine could see the light of day, for the perenniality of their image and the effectiveness of their initiatives. That could mean operations meeting a clearly identified aim and a “required final state” clearly identified and leaving a few traces. It is certainly in this direction that the prototype of aircraft X43A is developed, flying with the speed of Mach 10, which will allow for the United States Air Force to quickly and directly operate from American territory. All the same, “Mobile Offshore Bases”, floating rigs large as ten aircraft carriers, have been imagined with the intention to reduce the vulnerability, visibility and constraints related to a massive deployment in a foreign country. From this point of view, the motto of “Government Issue” (GI’S) would then become: “Do your job and come back for Thanksgiving”. The difficult management of the Iraqi conflict shows that America cannot consider itself omnipotent anymore. A reflex of multilateralism is already detectable. In its future actions, it will probably be in search of allies with which it will have to share its sights. It will also have to stick to a legitimacy that victory alone will not be enough to provide. After being the first to have militated for people’s right decide for themselves and in spite of the Messianism of which it has made à leurs aspirations élémentaires nées de leur histoire intérieure: sécurité chez eux et aisance commerciale dans le monde. Des perspectives sont envisageables. Aujourd’hui, le démantèlement des troupes américaines d’Europe et d’Asie constitue la plus importante restructuration de la présence militaire américaine à l’étranger depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale 17. Ce retrait ne s’inscrit pas dans une vision impérialiste de leur politique. Une nouvelle forme de la doctrine Weinberger pourrait voir le jour, pour la pérennité de leur image et l’efficacité de leurs initiatives. Cela passe par des opérations répondant à un objectif et un “état final recherché” clairement identifiés et laissant un minimum d’empreintes. C’est certainement dans ce sens qu’est développé le prototype d’avion X43A volant à Mach 10, et qui permettra à l’aviation américaine d’opérer directement et rapidement depuis son territoire. De même, des “Mobile Offshore Bases”, plates-formes flottantes grandes comme dix porte-avions, ont été imaginées dans le but de réduire la vulnérabilité, la visibilité et les contraintes liées à un déploiement massif en pays étranger. Dans une telle optique, la devise du “Government Issue’s” (GI’s) deviendraitalors : “Faire le boulot, et rentrer pour Thanksgiving”. La difficile gestion du conflit irakien montre que l’Amérique ne peut plus se considérer omnipotente. Un réflexe de multilatéralisme est déjà décelable. Dans ses actions futures, elle sera vraisemblablement en quête d’alliés, avec lesquels elle devra partager ses vues. Elle devra également s’attacher à une légitimité que la victoire seule ne suffit pas à conférer. Après avoir milité la première pour le droit des peuples à disposer d’eux-mêmes et malgré le messianisme dont elle fait preuve depuis “Financial Times”, in its edition on December 4, 2004, writes about the withdrawal of 100 000 men: this project regards the troops installed in Germany and South Korea. Le “Financial Times” dans son édition du 4 décembre 2004 parle du retrait de 100 000 hommes: ce projet vise notamment les troupes installées en Allemagne et en Corée du Sud. 17 94 17 College Interarmees de Defense ~ The Evidence of Fraternity proof since the attacks on September 11, let us suppose whether it will accept the right of civilisations to have their own vision of the world, even if it is different from that of Washington. The demographic growth of the Hispanic or Asian minorities on the American land will create a cultural relativism which will incontestably support this equitable approach to international relations. The American foreign policy will definitely never limit itself only to defending the immediate national interests: what we want is for governors, helped by “think tanks”18, to be always able to support the moral values that fully respect their domestic history and to show more concerned for the attacks to humankind. les attentats du 11 septembre, gageons qu’elle acceptera le droit des civilisations à avoir leur propre vision du monde, fut-elle différente de celle de Washington. La croissance démographique des minorités hispaniques ou asiatiques sur son sol va créer un relativisme culturel qui favorisera incontestablement cette approche équitable des relations internationales. La politique extérieure américaine ne se limitera cependant jamais à la défense des intérêts nationaux immédiats: souhaitons que les gouvernants, aidés des “think tanks”18 puissent toujours soutenir des valeurs morales respectueuses de leur histoire intérieure et chaque fois plus soucieuses des attentes de l’humanité. 18 These “think tanks” have practical and theoretical knowledge which actively mirror the foreign policy. They well correspond to the American spirit: individualism in the service of the nation. 18 Ce sont des “réservoirs de pensée” alliant savoir pratique et universitaire où se réfléchit activement la politique extérieure. Ils correspondent bien à l’esprit américain: individualisme au service de la nation. 95 THE END OF MANAGEMENT ? Captain Doina ILIE ~ Personnel Informatisation Bureau within the General Staff ~ “Thinking strategically means thinking the unthinkable”. Donald Rumsfeld M anagement is a psychological experiment. Highly evolved individuals incorporate their work into own identity so that work becomes part of the way in which the individual sees himself/herself. Within a “better” organisation people are liable to become “better” individuals as well, which leads to a new organisational development, in a perfect cyclic progressive relationship. Since we cannot separate the individual from society, when considering society we must not forget that postmodern vision on the world is rather organic than mechanicist, rather holistic than part-centred, rather participative than impersonal and it works through top-to-base oriented hierarchy. Moreover, the “network” model is to be found in all living systems that are mainly coordinated through networks (neuronal systems) and not through hierarchies. All these match the new management postmodern philosophy focused on enhancing the employees’ role at local level, as well as on self-managed teams and organic systems – as ever-changing open systems with a non-balanced status so that they could adapt easily to an ever-changing environment. Therefore, we can state that a so-called “organisational democracy” has appeared and we should try to demonstrate that it is to naturally replace classic management. We mentioned above the living systems and neuronal networks. If we are to maintain the analogy and address the organisation as a human brain, then we should know that it operates with up to three distinct individual systems that are closely interrelated: the mental, the emotional and the spiritual one. The healthiest organisations as well as the sanest minds learn to respond and adapt to external stimuli through a well-integrated combination of all the three structures and not through a unique and rigid approach. 96 Opinions • Arguments • Certitudes • Perspectives Usually, within organisations the importance of the emotional component and the spiritual one is denied; however the focus is on efficiency, results and other qualities particularly associated with mental structure. It is quite obvious that, if we use only a third of the brain there are two thirds left unused, which means a huge reservoir of ideas and opportunities by which we may cope creatively with everyday challenges within an organisation. It is true that the scientific mental approach has got a long history based on results that have fully contributed to the progress and revolution of society. It is known that, starting with the 17th century, the dominant Western paradigm has been designed following the Newtonian model. This applies to Management as well as to Politics, Economy, Psychology and Education. According to this, science is deterministic, reductional and atomistic. In other words, things happen because they must do it and because there are forceful laws to ensure guarantee and predictability. And then, of course, any whole is better understood if it is reduced to its components and each and every part is studied separately. According to Newtonian principles, reality is made of discreet and impenetrable particles connected to one another by reaction and action forces, nature is structured hierarchically and there is an obvious demarcation between a scientific observer and the world he/she observes. Military organisation has functioned perfectly based on this paradigm. As a matter of fact, the military organisation has understood the model so well that, as a result, by studying and analysing it, has managed to improve it radically. In addition, the military organisation is the one that has substantially contributed to defining and implementing the concept of “leadership” in business. Thanks to the military organisation the management “by results”– used since the Industrial Revolution in England, 1730 – is replaced in 1950 by the management “by objectives and performance evaluation”. The 20th century lays the basis of new concepts: relativity, quantum mechanics, chaos and complexity theory. Thus, as it has happened before, the new scientific discoveries begin to be applied to other areas as well – Economy, Psychology, Politics. Obviously the change is not easily accepted but the joy of discovery crosses the borders of these areas and brings the revelation of a new vision over reality and its laws. By dissolving all boundaries, not only the interrelated ones but also the physical and even the mental ones, new unknown perspectives appear, which are likely to bring progress and evolution. Talking about mental boundaries and focussing on individuals, we can state that, for human beings, the mental is usually associated to explicit thinking, to the ability to solve problems, to following rules and to fulfilling goals. But what problems do we choose to solve ? What goals do we believe that are worth achieving and what is our desire to follow rules ? All these are the result of our emotional and spiritual side; they come from the desires, ambitions, and connections we make as well as from our pain, vision and our deepest values. Obviously, our desires, ambitions, associations and pains have emotional and social roots: social values, group pressing, interpersonal relations, childhood experiences etc. The latest psychological studies show that all these are linked with our need to find a meaning, our most intimate beliefs and visions and finally with our spiritual side. We understand now why we cannot ignore our spiritual 97 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 and emotional side, why we must not separate these two components from our mental side when we talk about our individual-personal development. Therefore, since organisations “organise” individuals, organisations have also mental, emotional and spiritual aspects. The direct conclusion is that we need to operate with three levels, in order to proceed to a real transformation within an organisation. Change is vital for an organisation because it is the only solution for evolution, for surpassing the phases called “it works anyway” or “if it works that way, let it work”. It is well known that an open, living “non-balanced” system is always a better choice than a stable, immovable, fixed, balanced system. For organisations, a continuous transformation is compulsory because they must be flexible in order to reach a better and quicker adaptability to a permanently changing and challenging environment. If we refer strictly to the mental component of an organisation, then we refer to cognitive processes, objectives, priorities and explicit rules. In Newtonian organisations – where the focus used to be on efficiency and results – the reason for choosing or achieving an objective did not use to be taken into consideration. It is clear now why this concept was wrong: because, for organisations, as well as for individuals, the question “Which objective is more important ?” or “Which objective should be achieved ?” belongs to the spiritual and emotional component; in other words, it is included in the basic vision of the organisation and consequently cannot be ignored. In every human being or every human organisation the real change requires a real, profound transformation of each and every of the three levels. The change that occurs only for one level is not efficient but, even so, most of the transformations are still focused only on one level. That is why we must agree that, if we want a real transformation then we must accept the necessity of changing all the three levels simultaneously. This way we will have a solid base on which we can add our next bricks for our future evolution. Generally, we agree that human behaviour within an organisation follows certain rules. Therefore, we believe that if we study these rules well enough, then any skilled person will know how to progress. This is not necessarily true because such logical, conventionally-wise approaches to management are just too simplistic, as they do not take into account the paradoxes that are inherent in human nature. As real people financial decisions, taken individually, are much more complicated and unpredictable than the simple-minded homo economicus, (the sum of basic economics precepts), the real people workplace behaviour is much more complex than typical management theories are able to capture. Parent-child and boss-employee relationships are hardly analogous, but a parallel can be usefully drawn between management training and parenting manuals. No one expects to become a good parent just by reading a book. Similarly, the many aspects of working together successfully in an organisational context are too subtle to effectively systematise. Our vision is closer to reality if we have vaster and different related fields knowledge. Therefore, we can claim that information defines us, it shows who we can become and what we can perceive and assimilate. Blocking or controlling the information flow slow down our growing and make us become defensive or “die”. In order to have the progress capability and a better adaptability we need to optimise “listening” skills and to be open to all information. The “command and control” concept 98 Opinions • Arguments • Certitudes • Perspectives is obsolete, all that boxes diagrams are history because they are hierarchical; power emanates from the top, and control is vital at every level. They are heavily bureaucratic and rule-bound, hence inflexible. Today, leaders must use all their skills and capabilities – emotional and spiritual as well – they must know to search information in all different sources, disseminate it at every level and to act promptly. “Chaos” and “disorder” must be considered opportunities. Haven’t you noticed that the more familiar a thing is to us the more difficult is for us to invent new ways of using it ? Which is, then, the solution ? The solution is to produce discontinuities and “breaks” every time we can, in our everyday life. Any change, any break is welcomed because, this way, we are forced to become more creative and to be more receptive to other people’s ideas at the same time. This happens because we have the power to define ourselves and the others – even the ones who oppose us – in different ways: in a narrow, rigid manner that suggests isolation, protection, constraint and limitation or an open, altruistic, shared-type one. As I pointed out before, all sciences of the 20th are holistic. Their theses reveal that the world is made from interrelated systems and not from separated, isolated parts. Therefore, any small change, in any part affects the whole as well. As it is postulated by the famous “butterfly effect” in chaos theory, there are not such things like insignificant changes because “a motion of a butterfly wings in Beijing is enough to generate a tornado in Kansas”. We must trust much more in each individual personal power, in the growing role of personal relationships and dare to think that “the end of management” is closer and “the rise of organisational democracy” is about to occur. The military organisation has already acknowledged the need for all these changes to take place and it has been, as usual, a step ahead the time because it has already been acquainted with facts like flexibility, better training and education – horizontally and vertically (meaning related areas and specific specialised areas), the increasing role of a quick reaction and response – all these being already part of the new military organisations functioning concepts and of the new asymmetric threats responses. BIBLIOGRAPHY • Richard Farson, Management of the Absurd: Paradoxes in Leadership. • Kenneth Cloke, Joan Goldsmith, The End of Management and the Rise of Organizational Democracy. • Brad VanAuken, Facilitating Creativity. • Gheorghe V`duva, Asimetria conflictual`. • www.defenselink.mil/pubs • humanresources.about.com. 99 GLOBAL POLITIC S POLITICS Corneliu POPESCU ~ National Defence College Graduate ~ “Global Politics” is a syntagm that grasps the trans-national spread in time and space of political relations, the extension of political power and activity over the borders of the modern nation-state. The political decisions and actions in one part of the world or another can soon acquire world ramifications. In addition, the areas of political action and/or decision can be connected to complex decision-making or political interactions networks through high-speed communications. This “spread” is associated with a “deepening” frequent impact of the global political processes, therefore, unlike the antique and modern empires, “the action at a distance” penetrates the social conditions and cognitive states of certain political places or communities with high intensity. Accordingly, the developments at global level frequently cause for local consequences to occur, sometimes instantaneously. The notion of “global politics” somehow contravenes the traditional distinctions between intern/ foreign, territorial/noninternational, domestic/ territorial policy, as it considers them as being imprinted upon the conventional conceptions of politics. It also brings forward the richness and complexity of the interplay, which transcends states and societies in the global order. Although governments and states remain, of course, powerful actors, they currently share the global arena with a series of other agencies and organisations. The state has a significant number of intergovernmental organisations (IGO) and international agencies before it, which operate in different areas, through quasi supra-national institutions, such as the European Union. Non-state actors, trans-national bodies and professional associations or social movements intensely participate in global politics, too. The same thing happens to many sub-national actors and national pressure groups, whose activities often have repercussions on the international arena. Therefore, the global arena can be conceived as a “mixed system of actors”, a polyarchic one, in which the political authority and the sources of political action are widespread. Nowadays, global politics is anchored not only in the traditional geopolitical concerns regarding security and military affairs but also in a great variety of economic, social and ecologic issues. Pollution, drugs, human rights and terrorism are part of the increasing number of trans-national policy issues, which cross over territorial jurisdictions and current Globalisation of Politics 100 Opinions • Arguments • Certitudes • Perspectives global political alignments and which require international cooperation in order to be efficiently settled. Defence and security issues no longer dominate the global agenda or the national governments political agenda, as the concept of “global governance” facilitates drawing up the world matters of interest. “Global governance” does not mean only the formal institutions and organisations which draft and support (or not) the rules and norms that govern world order – state institutions, intergovernmental cooperation and so forth – but also those organisations and pressure groups – starting with multinational corporations and trans-national social movements to the plethora of nongovernmental organisations which seek to attain purposes and objectives that are relevant to the trans-national regulation and authority systems. Clearly, the United Nations system, the World Trade Organisation and the multitude of national governments activities are part of the important components of global governance, but are not the only ones. If social movements, nongovernmental organisations, regional political associations etc. are excluded from the notion of global governance, we will not be able to correctly understand its form and dynamics. Global politics entails a broad notion of global governance as being the necessary element in the changing scenery of the political life. The increasing number of political organisation and action forms reflects the rapid expansion of trans-national connexions and the wish expressed by more and more states regarding the establishment of a trans-national governance that is able to manage collective political issues. In addition, it mirrors the increasing pressure exerted by governmental bodies in order to develop new forms of responsibility in the international political life. To grasp only a few of the ongoing changes in this field, it is important for us to understand the concept of “international regime”. An “international regime” is defined in terms of “sets of implicit or explicit principles, norms, rules, and decision-making procedures around which actors’ expectations converge in a given issue-area”1. The regimes of international conduct are not only temporary agreements but also, more than that, they can be considered as “intervening variables” between the essential power and the economic structures of the international system, resulting in specific consequences. For instance, the failure of markets to regulate the demand and the supply of goods and services or to work out urgent trans-national issues can generate incentives for states and political actors to establish special regimes. The regimes can provide a framework of legal guarantees, can improve the available information, can cut down the transaction costs of cooperation and can inspire the otherwise “anarchic” relations to acquire a degree of predictability. International regimes are therefore the expression of the need for finding new ways to cooperate and regulate collective issues. International regimes mark the continuously increasing institutionalisation of global politics2. They are forms of global governance that are distinct from the traditional notions 1 2 Krasner, S., International Regimes, Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1983, p. 2. Young, O., International Regimes, Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1989, p. 11. 101 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 regarding governance and are drawn up in terms of the specific places of sovereign political power. In the contemporary international system, there is no authority above the state, naturally. In spite of this fact, international regulatory regimes have developed very fast, this reflecting the intensification of global and regional involvement patterns. As Young notices, “International regimes cover a wide spectrum of issues from the perspective of the functional field, the geographic domain and the members. From the functional point of view, they vary from the narrow horizon of the polar bear agreement to the broad range of concerns regarding the Antarctica and the extraterrestrial space agreements. The covered geographical range can be limited, just as the very restricted domain of the seals from the North Pacific regime or vast, as in the case of the international air transport regimes (International Civil Air Organisation, International Air Transportation Association) or of nuclear tests control. As far as members are concerned, the series may start with two or three, just as the high seas fishing regime, established by the International Convention for the High Seas Fisheries of the North Pacific Ocean, and may have more than one hundred members, as in the case of the nuclear non-proliferation regime. Far from being unusual, these are familiar to the international society”. International regimes cover a broad range of actors, including governments, governmental departments and sub-national governmental authorities. Moreover, while some regimes have an intergovernmental organisation as a core, other agreements are more fluid, following some treaties, the need to manage certain collective political issues or, simply, owing to some international communities of interests. Hence, the international security regime in Europe is built around the complex relations between certain institutions: the North-Atlantic Treaty Organisation, the European Union and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe – a group of fifty-five states, all European, except the United States and Canada, whose main function is to favour political stability and military security in Europe. Comparatively, the international nuclear non-proliferation regime is not based on a formal organisation, but on an international treaty combined with successive international conferences within which key decisions are being made. This regime is similar to the law of the sea regime, which controls the exploitation of resources in deep seas. In addition, international regimes have many basic functions. Some of them become involved only in monitoring activities: it is the case of the arms control regimes such as the regulation regarding the reduction of armament in Europe (Conventional Armed Forces in Europe ~ CFE), while other regimes establish forums for collective decision-making with regard to international property rights, as in the case of radio or orbit (for satellites) frequency allocation. Despite the diversity of forms, functions and establishments, international regimes are the expression of a governing system – or, better to say, of a system of “governing without a government” – in the contemporary world order. We must be cautious while talking about global politics and governance and about international regimes. Judging from their impact, especially from the relation with the states and the dynamic model of world order, it is necessary for us to reflect on two issues. 102 Opinions • Arguments • Certitudes • Perspectives First of all, it is the fact that the sovereignty of an individual nation-state is undermined only when it is replaced by “superior” and/or independent, and/or deterritorialised, and/or functional forms of the authority that reduce the decision-making basis that is justified in a national frame. This happens in the context in which national sovereignty entails the entitled idea of both ruling a territory limited by borders and having political authority within a community, authority that is entitled to decide the frame of rules, regulations and policies governance relies on. Secondly, while thinking about the impact globalisation has over the nation-state, it is necessary for us to make a distinction between state sovereignty and the autonomy – the state capacity to independently draft and accomplish strategic political objectives. Accordingly, it is essential that we ask ourselves: Has the sovereignty of the nation-state remained intact while the autonomy of the state has been altered or has the modern state confronted with a decrease in sovereignty in the context of politics becoming globalised ? It is important for us to highlight that the globalisation of politics does not mean that the modern nation-state has disappeared, that the sovereignty of the modern state has dissolved or the autonomy of the state has been drastically limited. The Mediation of Global Politics N a t i o n s , communities and organisations are connected through many forms of communication and media that cross all borders. The revolution in microelectronics, information and computers technology has almost instantaneously established world connections, which, combined with the technology in the field of telephony, television, cable and satellite broadcasting and the field of jet planes has significantly influenced the nature of political communication. The new means of communication provide the individuals with the right to go beyond geographic borders, which, in the past, would have hindered any contact, and gives access to a set of political and social experiences to which the individual or the group might have never had direct access. This way, the link between the “physic place”, “the social situation” and “politics” has broken, a link that described most of the political associations from the premodern period to the modern one. The new communication systems create new experiences, new ways of understanding and new frames of political references, irrespective of the direct contact with certain persons or subjects. At the same time, the unequal access to these new ways of communication has created new patterns of inclusion but also of exclusion from global politics. The development of new communication systems generates a world in which the particularities of the place and of the individuality are constantly rearranged and reinterpreted by the regional and global communication networks. Yet, these systems relevance goes much further: the new systems represent means, even if not the only means for intensifying the many processes of political change, certified in the previous section and in what will follow; meaning, they are fundamental to the possibility 103 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 of organising the political action and exercising the political power at long distance and for the transformation of the modern political communities and the system of territorial states, in general. For instance, the expansion of international and trans-national organisations, the extension of legal international rules and mechanisms, their establishment and monitoring have all received an impulse on the part of the new communication systems, depending on them as on a means for reaching their purposes. Contemporary telecommunications take after political organisations nature and form and unite the communities in a new interaction frame. Still, they do not serve to the enlargement of political relations only, they also pay their contribution to increasing the velocity of political interactions. Rapidly reported events, incidents and catastrophes might generate almost immediate regional or global ramifications. Millions of people from all continents witnessed the events in China, in the Tienanmen Square, back in 1989, or when Greenpeace successfully opposed the attempt made by Shell, the British corporation, to build a huge oil storage and tanker loading buoy, let alone the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the USA. The fact that there were cameras that videotaped these events as they unfolded has made room for access and involvement, so that, even they were taking place in a certain location, they had an immediate and direct effect on many parts of the world. This represented, in its turn, a basis for the complex and diverse reactions on the part of the state agencies and on the one of the civil society. The current global telecommunication network comprises all the states, although not all the significant sections of world population. It reflects, same as many other global networks, the geography of power and privilege. The international or local telephony service, specific to the developed world, is not available in all the states. For instance, in the small town Villes de Bravo, Westwards of Mexico, the biggest part of the population relies on the communal telephony service, while even this one is precarious in other parts of the country. Asymmetries of success and chance are present in the global telecommunication network. It is interesting to notice that the global network is one of the most regulated sectors of trans-national activity. It is governed by the telecommunication international regime, comprising the International Telecommunications Union ~ ITU, which, in its turn, consists of the Radiocommunication Sector, the World Radiocommunication Conference and the International Telecommunications Satellite Organization and of various regional organisations. Together, these organisations provide mechanisms for international coordination, which facilitate the running of the entire world telephony, telegraphy, radio and satellite broadcasting system. By the end of the 20 th century, the issues raised by the efficient maintenance of a genuine communication network became more complex and politicised. The stake was huge, because of the enormous global market that provided communication services: a figure estimated at over 600 trillion USD per annum, in 1997. The implications for the national sovereignty and autonomy are considerable because now, unlike the time 104 Opinions • Arguments • Certitudes • Perspectives when the telegraph appeared, no state can enforce rules or control the trans-national fluxes of mail, images, data and electronic programmes that cross its borders. The Internet is an extremely interesting case. The policy of the international telecommunication regime is significant through what it unravels with regard to the changing balance of state power and corporations in global politics. Until 1970, there had been few controversies as far as the regime was concerned. Yet, after the revolution of global financial services and the deregulation of communications market in the USA and UK, the regime became extremely politicised. The regime’s basic norms – networks standardisation, collective decision in global common issues (broadcast range and satellite orbits), services provided in collective and multilateral coordination – remain intact. The same thing happens, in most of their part, to the rules and decision-making mechanisms of the regime. The result was to provide minimum levels of access to the system for all the states, especially to the satellite communication that a market regime would not have offered. To a certain extent, the regime has introduced some elements of global equity in the aspects of the international decision-making process. Improving this approach is the distinct institutional policy of the regime. This provides the Third World countries and their monopoles in the communication domain with an increasing voting power that their economic status might entitled them to, although most of the decisions are consensual. Nevertheless, as the deregulation of the communication sectors belonging to the developed economies has rapidly advanced, a trans-national coalition of multinational corporations has been established in order to promote a much more liberal international communication regime. Assisted by a trans-national community of financial banking interests that are based on cheap communications, the pressure exerted for the liberalisation of the global communication market remains intense. This pressure became clearly expressed the day before the agreement regarding the liberalisation of international trade in the services of basic telecommunications, which came into force on the 5th of February 1998. Yet, even the United States, the most determined supporter of global deregulation, was ready to accept “the principle of planning a fix system of satellite services, which makes it possible for each and every nation to have its own position on the orbit”, in order to avoid the collapse of the entire regulatory order. The policy of the regime is outlined through the interaction between the relatively small coalitions of governments, the corporatist interests and the specialists that have been trying to exert pressures for a bigger liberalisation and to involve a bigger group of states, with specialists and their national monopoles over communications, which wish to limit, not necessarily to prevent, liberalisation. The result is the complex interaction between international and trans-national political forces, wherein political results are mediated by the institutional dynamics of the regime. The nature of the contemporary regime of telecommunications illustrates the dynamics of the manifest interplay between the intern and international domains. 105 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 Furthermore, it enhances the notion of global politics due to the fact that the political area can no longer be conceived as being limited by the borders of the territorial nation-state: politics and governance go beyond national borders, therefore a duality of inside/outside-type, domestic/foreign-type no longer exists. The telecommunication regime represents a kind of functional political space that transcends national territorial borders and that articulates, in this particular case, a sense of political community that is not anchored in a territorial logic in its proper meaning, but, rather in a trans-national community of interests that derive from the position of the members as providers, consumers or regulators of the telecommunication service. In this respect, the global communication infrastructure mediates between the Westphalian order and rearticulates political interests, structures and outcomes. Selective Bibliography • H. Bull, The Anarchical Society, London, Macmillan, 1997. • A. Cassese, Violence and Law in a Modern Age, Cambridge, Polity Press, 1988. • R. A. Dahl, Democracy and its Critics, New Haven, Yale University Press. • M. Mann, The Source of Social Power, vol. 1 – A History of Power from the Beginning to AD 1760, Cambridge University Press, 1986. • G. Poggi, The Development of the Modern State, London, Hutchinson, 1978. • W. Wallace, Rescue or Retreat ? The Nation State in Western Europe, in Political Studies, 1994, p. 42. 106 60 ° 30 ° 15 0° Fr en ch ne 0° ly sia (F So uth r.) ° A. 60 ° Oce an S. 30 ° Haw aiia ° ile 30 Ch lap Fa lkl and a Ge org ia r (ad ex ico ° Un ited 60 r 30 ° by ed , cla im UK , cla lo m bi a by tin a) 60 ne tin ° Ar gen Ar gen ed by im Ve zu a) S. A. Can ad a o (U S) Do mi pu as Re ham an Gu 90 ° Oce an nic Ba a nid rba ad do yan and s To Su a bag rin am o Fre e nch Gu ian a (Fr .) 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Yu rai Al Ma go Roma Mo ne ban c. . nia ldo Gr ia Bu va lga eec ria e th. l. Ge d Ki Fa .) Ne ite en Un Be Sw yp nce ° d (D 60 an Eg Fra lan ia Ire nl nd ee and ela nis a Tu n Isl Gr Ic ere by da Li ain esm Su Sp Ell So wi Ta Bu a m nz rund ali an a ia i M Se oz ych am ell bi es qu e M ad ag as ca r Ke Rw an Ug ire da anda Ca Za bw bi n ba m bo m Za la Ga go pe An nci ricLe Sw aso az ila th o nd m h Af Na Co Th Sa e har M Gu Ga a (M au ine mb Se Al rit a-B ia neg or. ge al an ) iss ria ia au Sie rra Gu Le M ine on ali e a Lib Bu Cô eri rki te a na D’ Fa Ni Ivo ge ire Benin so Gh r Eq ana . Gu Ni Sa ger o To ine Togo Ch ia a me Ba ia ss Ru 90 Pac ific U. str 12 Po 0° e at ) c i g ct s n io POLICY OF FORCE, STRATEGY ON A KNIFE EDGE Brigadier (r.) Gheorghe V~DUVA, PhD ~ Senior Researcher at the Centre for Defence and Security Strategic Studies within the National Defence University ~ “Donec eris felix, multos numerabis amicos, Tempora si fuerint nubila, solus eris” Ovid The world seems to have turned upside down. Or vice versa. It seems not to have enough space, time, arms, roads, air, land, mountains, fields, waters, seas, oceans, resources, thoughts or wisdom. Nothing is enough to it anymore, as it has reached the age of the shortcomings. The Great Middle East, in a possible or rather impossible democratic and prosperous configuration the Americans have dreamt about, namely a Great East built or rebuilt in the most democratic and prosperous space of the world’s own image, today’s and yesterday’s American El Dorado, is determined not to believe in fashionable wonders, wisdom, usually imported, in values that do not belong to these austere, very poor sands, though very rich, since they shelter large underground deposits of oil. Not all of them, of course, but enough to focus and concentrate the interest, will, desire and force for domination upon them. Therefore, in what might this Great Middle East believe ? Beyond clarity This big or small, far or near East, crumbled by tensions, pressures and diversions, seems to believe in nobody and nothing anymore. For hundreds and hundreds of years, the entities from this region have been at war. Probably the oil or its impact upon the planet’s civilisation is to be blamed. Oil is the resource on which the entire technical and technological progress of humankind, the entire technological civilisation is grounded. In other words, our civilisation is an oil-based civilisation. An oil and electron-based one. Almost all that relies on technology on this planet – aircrafts, cars, ships, production lines, great enterprises etc. – is based on oil. Of course, there are even other energy resources that can change this configuration entirely but, for the time being, the world 107 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 does not have any intention to change its infrastructure, technologies, its conception of life and civilisation, namely everything that has been achieved so far, for the sake of the bird in the air, as long as it does not have to do it yet. The battle for oil, no matter under what form it would be carried – from bloody war to … strategic partnerships – is doubled by the one of the borders of all kind, political and geographical borders included. People fight, and they still fight for land. The notion of a country and of the right to have a country, a homeland, still exists, even if some windbags try to prove, making use of all sorts of bizarre Brig (r.) Gheorghe V~DUVA, PhD and confusing savant things, that the time of the country, homeland, native soil has passed. These individuals, uprooted by who knows what kind of illusion, should consider the dignity and determination with which the great or small nations of the world honour, defend and love their countries, such as the Americans, French, Germans, Italians, Spanish, Jews, Palestinians, Japanese, Chinese and even our parents and forefathers who have never forgotten, for any single moment, that it is not the country that belongs to them, but they belong to the country… In almost everything that happens in the big or small, far or near East, there generally is a dreadful mixture of big and small battles – some of them for oil, others for borders or space, concepts, others for dignity or illusions –, which no one can get rid of not even by cutting the Gordian knot, for the very reason that this kind of knot does not exist. There can be no knots in a jungle. Everything that happens on these lands from the centre of the world – where the richest known, exploited or unable to be exploited energy resources can be found – is nothing else but a sort of jungle wherein all kinds of interests, actions, reactions, protests, passions and convictions carried to extreme, judgments and prejudgements, awful realities and bloody perspectives whirl in a chaos with rash, unpredictable evolutions. All of them have a good reason, although nothing seems justifiable when it comes to war, terrorism, aggression against human life, belief and God. Maybe people have not yet reached that stage of development in which wisdom is much powerful than interest. Unfortunately, today it is not the interest that is placed in the service of wisdom – this is not even possible ! –, nevertheless, wisdom is not always hand and glove with the interest. It is often replaced by diversion, stratagem, deception, pressure, threat and even force. Obviously, not with the force of wisdom, not with the wisdom of the force, but with the force of the interest. Sadly, the Middle East is the battlefield of the war of the beginning of the century, in which the super-technologised campaigns, in their information and high tech superiority, encounter primitive actions, carried in despair, all kinds of reactions, in a jungle of paradoxes, crumbled by fractal, unclear, sometimes parallel, other times extremely tangled and confuse politics and changing, often on a knife edge, strategies. 108 Geopolitics • Geostrategy • International Security “We all owe a death” The points, areas and hot issues of the Middle East are numerous and complicated. Death is ordinary, but, here, no one is afraid of it anymore. The guerrilla war in Iraq, the uncertain strategic situation, a too violent one, from Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran’s nuclear programme, the tensions in the Middle East, which have already degenerated into military confrontations, all represent only what can be seen of all that exists. The new escalation of tensions in the Middle East seems, at first sight, the last resort in the attempt to put an end to violence. In truth, the facts stand completely different and there are all the conditions for the situation to get out of control or, anyway, to even more deepen the catastrophic gaps which have established and developed between different entities in the area. The labels attached to the forehead of one entity or another are not capable to calm the tensions, but, quite the contrary, they make them ever more predominant. The time of dissuasion, be it the nuclear one, even if it has not passed yet, needs being much carefully detailed. People do not get scared so easily anymore. They are too enraged and affected by the pillars with which they have been thrust at in the soul and heart, to get scare of something. “We all owe a death”, the poet would have said. But no one wants to die in chains or in dishonour … and each man has his own way of perceiving and accepting life or death. There is no law or uniformity here. Instead, there is much dignity in this Blessed and Cursed Middle East. It follows that not always and not everywhere may the same measure be employed. When it comes to politics, life and strategy, there are many particularities and many complex relations of identity and even those of equivalency are almost missing. It was thought that, after the death of Arafat, the new elections in Palestine, even if they meant Hamas group’s coming to power, after the Israeli retreat from the Gaza Strip and the Syrian one from Lebanon, things would calm down. They did not. Quite the contrary, they got worse. Israel entered again the Gaza Strip with its tanks and virulently attacked Southern Lebanon. With aircrafts and tanks. Hezbollah responded with reactive projectiles striking some districts from Haifa and the Israeli towns near the Lebanese border quite randomly. Otherwise stated, an all-out war. Attacks, bombings, ripostes, civilian evacuation by ship, airplanes or helicopters, using all the means of transportation which, one way or another, can reach the area or its surroundings … Declarations come one after another. Same thing happens to speculations. Official statements are doubted, unofficial ones are not credible, therefore cannot be considered, and speculations are, in their turn, thoroughly speculated, commented and examined. The Israelis take action in Lebanon same as the Americans took action in Afghanistan, after September 11, 2001. A justified action, according to those undertaking it, certainly, since, they say, in Southern Lebanon, at the border with Israel, there are Hezbollah terrorists, a group that does not leave Israel in peace, with bases for instruction and departure in actions of all kinds. Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists do what they want to, attacking Israel through all means, endangering civil lives, the citizen and the state’s safety. There are attacks almost every day, from attacks that make use of hand-made means or fire weapons up to suicidal 109 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 actions. And then you, if you were in Israel, what would you do ? Would you stand with your arms crossed, letting terrorists and self-murderers kill your people in the streets ? Suicide terrorism has become one of the terrorist strategies in the Middle East, especially in the area of Israel and Iraq. Given these circumstances, Israel believes it has the right to defend itself, to take all the necessary measures to protect its borders, citizens and institutions, no matter what the entire world says. Israel believes it has to defend itself actively, namely offensively, because there cannot be other way. On the other hand, Hezbollah and Hamas groups, no matter what people might say about them, in favour or against them, think they have the right to fight, through all means, against Israel, that they acknowledge as an enemy, unwanted in this area and mainly responsible for all the evil things in the Middle and Near East, including for the fact that, although there is a roadmap and there are other numerous treaties and documents, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict does not cease and the Palestinians do not have a country of their own yet, even if they have been in the area for over one thousand years. Another mention should be made that, even if the means, forms and formulae that Hamas and Hezbollah groups use for taking action are terrorist ones, not everybody includes this political organisations on the terrorism list1. In fact, in the Near East and, by extension, in the entire Middle East, there are a lot of truths and rights which, unfortunately, manifest unilaterally, they do not coexist, do not collaborate but only confront. And they confront chaotically, unexpectedly and extremely violent. The most important of them can be expressed as follows: the Israelis have the right to live in a country of their own, which must be acknowledged by all the states in the area, by the entire world and accepted as such. In addition, Israel has the right and the obligation to defend its frontiers, citizens and institutions against terrorists and all those who infringe upon the liberty and wholeness of this sovereign and independent state. the Palestinians also have the right to a country of their own, which has not yet take shape and constituted de jure and de facto, despite all international steps taken all these years and the roadmap that seems to remain uncovered. Lebanon is an independent and sovereign country, which has suffered a lot, especially in the ’80s, but continues to represent a pearl of the Mediterranean and the Middle East. It is normal that its frontiers should not be attacked using the excuse that terrorist groups act on its territory. Nobody has that right. Only the UN has the right to decide what forms and formulae are required to be used in order to settle this kind of issues. That is a series of undisputable truths but, instead of harmonising the relations and creating firm premises for long-lasting solutions, they result in intolerance and violence. The unilateral attack against Lebanon without a UN mandate is, undoubtedly, an act of aggression, even if the pretext seems to be defence, namely Israel does not attack, but defends itself. This kind of defence means, according to this vision, destroying the infrastructure and other elements of that particular group. But there is nothing new under the sun. There are a lot of excuses of this kind in the world. 1 110 For instance, they are not on the terrorist organisations list drawn up by Russia. Geopolitics • Geostrategy • International Security Obviously, the Israelis have the right to live in a country of their own, in Israel, and so do the Palestinians. In order to defend this right, Israel has procured modern armament, nuclear included, has obtained a strong American support and has made a considerable military effort. Palestinians cannot procure those kinds of weapons. Israel carries an active policy, of consolidating the state under all forms and enhancing the protection against the attacks of the countries in the area that are hostile to the Jewish state or believe Jews have no right to such a state. For this purpose, Israel has developed powerful armed forces, procured nuclear means, an impenetrable electronic shield included, thus becoming the most powerful country in the area, from both economic and military point of view. As the dialogue does not work, Israeli leadership seems not to see other solution. Between the two big wars it waged against its neighbours, in 1967 and 1973, Israel victory could not be contested. Even during the 1973 war, when two very well prepared Egyptian armies forced the Suez Canal and basically removed the Jews from the Sinai Peninsula they had conquered in 1967 by force, the Israelis managed to infiltrate, over the Amar Lake, through a skilful offensive manoeuvre, a small group of forces, about the value of a brigade, which reached km 101 on the communication line that led to Cairo and cut one of the armies supply lines. Under the pressure of the international community, hostilities ceased, but the Jews were at an advantage again. The Jews have the most powerful and best equipped armed forces in the area, but no one knows how long this superiority will last. Syria and Iran are arming, and Iran’s nuclear programme causes much concern in Tel Aviv, in the region and in the entire world. However, technological superiority does not always represent the most powerful weapon. There has already been developed a series of asymmetric strategies that make use of the human element especially and can cause troubles to technological strategies and even to those that model Network Centric Warfare. Moreover, Iran has already missiles at its disposal that may reach even the European continent and can transport nuclear cargo. Everybody knows that in the event Iran procures the nuclear weapon, this kind of weapon will not necessarily target Europe and so much the less the United States, but Israel and, perhaps, the American allies in the area. In this Eastern world (be it Middle, Near or Far), fidelity, just like infidelity, has a very high price to pay. Anyway, the evil has already been released, and there is not much to do about it. If a sole state has nuclear fighting means at its disposal that it can threaten with, control, discourage or, lately, “manage” the whole world or just part of it, it stands to reason that such lack of balance, despite all signed or over-signed documents, will not be accepted on very long term. Any attempt one might have to stop, re-tame and put the bridle on the nuclear horses created in the stables and laboratories of the science and technology of highly technologised warfare does not stand a chance to succeed. All the treaties, conventions, agreements and understanding will last for ten, twenty years, perhaps a century, maybe more, but, sooner or later, the states and national and international political entities, even those from the globalisation era – so much the more these ones – will not accept the same hierarchies and lack of balance for ever. 111 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 Evidently, the UN resolutions and the decisions of the international organisations and organisms are necessary, useful and even mandatory for these times of strategic balance when we cannot and must not stand with our arms crossed, waiting for who knows what flabby pear to fall. But the world needs great-great wisdom in order to successfully cross the border between confrontation and partnership, from war to peace. That is why the strategies for this beginning of the century must respond to a certain dialectics of the wills in search for some different solutions other than those of violent armed confrontation. It is true, where there is no confrontation there is no strategy. And the confrontations of the beginning of this century are so numerous, so different and tough, that it is very difficult for someone to get out of this kind of strategic labyrinth. There must also be strategies able to put into practice policies of non-confrontation, partnership. Israel’s riposte, believed to be disproportionate by some people, is only asymmetric. Here, there is more than only a confrontation between the missile projectile launcher, used by Hezbollah and the modern Israeli air forces that launch laser-guided bombs and the Merkava tanks, some of the most modern and powerful fighting machines in the world. Such a confrontation would be and, in fact, is completely disproportionate. Two irreconcilable philosophies, two completely different systems confront here, each one of those involved asymmetrically exploiting the other’s vulnerabilities. Israel has no means for fighting terrorist-type attacks. No one has. Therefore, it uses whatever it has got. It acts with highly effective armed forces, created in order to resist to the attacks of other armed forces of the states in the area and not to the groups attacking citizens and infrastructure. Yet, terrorists do not attack these armed forces, not even defend against them, but they attack those vital points in which the Israelis are very vulnerable: the street, critical infrastructure, people, everyday life. Some people believe that Iran might be blamed for the new degradation of the situation in the area, since this country is the one that seems to be in charge of most of the terrorist phenomena in the area. Within the Shi’a Islamic environment, the term Hezbollah means an international movement consisting of organisations and individuals that know each other and are connected through an organic relation with Iran. Hezbollah movement appeared in the early ‘80s because of the Iranian desire and will to export the Islamic revolution in the Muslim world. Yet, in Lebanon Hezbollah has become, in time, a mass political party, with much influence on the political scene of the country, which has developed important infrastructure and networks, and Hamas has won the Palestinian elections. In Lebanon, a kind of “libanization” of Hezbollah has taken place, which has become, according to the statements of some observers, a true “factor for supporting a confessional system that it previously fought against”. It has given up its initial objective, namely achieving an Islamic republic in Iran, and has focused on “maintaining a balance between the 17 Lebanese religious communities, thus becoming the most efficient guarantor of stability in Lebanon”. Still, it has not given up the guerrilla against the Israeli state and that has led to an increasing prestige of the two groups – Hamas and Hezbollah – among the Muslim world. 112 Geopolitics • Geostrategy • International Security Policies and strategies in the labyrinth Some analysts from the Middle East Media Research Institute ~ MEMRI, as well as other experts see the current crisis in strong connection with an indirect strategy of Iran, which has been interested in causing troubles in the area in order to divert the attention from its nuclear programme. Iran and Syria seem to make the most of this conflict, as they will succeed in generating a new support for arming and increasing the influence in the area, together with those that support these countries. It is possible things may be really very subtle and there may be almost no way out, since, in our opinion, we have to deal here with at least three types of policies and with the same number of types of strategies, all in the labyrinth: • the policy of force, sustained through direct strategies, which aim at destroying the bases and networks of Hezbollah and Hamas organisations, discouraging any actions against Israel and generating the fait accompli; • the policy of delaying, deceiving and hiding, probably sustained by Iran, Syria and some of the groups in the area through all sorts of stratagems and indirect strategies, difficult to identify and analyse, through which one essentially seeks to intensify the hostility of the Arab world towards Israel, to stimulate the arming, to justify Iran’s nuclear programme and to consolidate the unity of the Islamic world, possibly under Iran’s headship, against the Israeli and American supertechnological menace; • the policy of riposte, sustained through asymmetric strategies, them too in the labyrinth, through which identifying some of Israel new vulnerabilities and, based on that, intensifying and radicalising terrorist actions are sought for. It is difficult for us to imagine that this serious deterioration of the situation in the Middle East follows only well-established directions, in keeping with accurate policies and strategies, with very clear and perfectly feasible objectives. There is no doubt that rigorous plans, drawn up with much scrupulosity, are at the basis of these actions. Nevertheless, in this kind of world, any action inevitably has chaotic evolutions, with sudden, unpredictable stages and difficult to anticipate effects. Even if the Israelis are at the end of their tether, after the numerous actions carried out with terrorist means that have taken place against them, their actions can difficultly be justified, especially if there is no UN mandate and the argument according to which Zahal attacks the infrastructure and bases of Hezbollah, but not Lebanon, cannot withstand a thorough analysis. Just as, of course, the terrorist actions against the Jewish population cannot be justified, under any circumstances. With all the American support, it may not be easy for Israel to face the UN Security Council, Europe and the international public opinion (which, and it is a proven fact, is hostile to any form of violence or aggression) and justify the reason for which it attacked Lebanon, the pearl of the Mediterranean and the Near East. It proves that there is a certain kind of incertitude for Israel, which generates a tempestuous reaction, causes big troubles in an area wherein things already stand under a lot of tension and uncertainty. Given these circumstances, it is not strategies that are important, but policies. And politics today, just as always, needs not only force and ability, diplomacy and logic but also maturity, objectivity and especially wisdom. 113 POWER AND ITS ROLE IN POSTMODERN GEOPOLITICS Colonel Constantin HLIHOR, PhD ~ Professor at the National Defence University “Carol I” ~ T he theories and concepts that have defined power in international relations are diversified and sometimes contested, depending on the school of thought or the philosophical perspective that has been accepted as sufficient for the explanation and the understanding of this type of realities. Martin Wight demonstrates, in the second half of the last century, that power and especially the politics of power have been differently perceived during the history of humankind1. Some theorists of international relations have analysed power, focusing their analysis on the capacity, the structure and the forms through which it appears manifest2. Others have centred upon emphasising the ways in which power is manifest in the international system3. It is rather difficult to choose the most appropriate concept while analysing the conduct of the actors in their geopolitical evolutions as it, along with others in the field of politics and philosophy, is part of what could be called categories with credibility deficit/contestable. For a long time, the theorists and analysts within the School of Realism have thought that, if the international power distribution is known, it is enough to explain the state attitude and conduct. Today, less and less of them think it sufficient4, because the state tends to be replaced, as far as its importance is concerned, by non-state actors. No matter how the contemporary world is perceived and analysed, its realities show that power and influence, loyalty and affection, coercion and threat of force have weight with regard to international relations. In geopolitical theory, power must be understood Martin Wight, Politica de putere, Editura Arc, 1998, p. 31. See, at length, Stefano Guzzini, Power in International Relations: Concept Formation Between Conceptual Analysis and Conceptual History, in http/www.isanet.org/noarchive/Analysing power.pdf.; Mark Rupert, Class Powers and the Politics of Global Governace, in http/www.maxell.sgr.edu/maxpage/ faculty/Sherman/Rupert/Global gov.pdf; Bertrand Russell, Idealurile politice. Puterea, Antaios, Bucure[ti, 2002. 3 Reinoud Bosch, Exposing the Concept of Power, in www.sase.org/conf 2004/papers/boschreinaud.pdf. 4 Andreas Wenger, The Internet and the Changing Face of International Relations and Security, in Information & Security, Volume 7, 2001, pp. 5-11. 1 2 114 Geopolitics • Geostrategy • International Security as not only a relation between actors – A capacity to convince/constraint B to take action in a direction which he is not interested or he does not perceive as desirable5, but also as potential (powermeans)6 and will to take action (powercapacity). Gerald Dussoy considers that, today, power should not be conceived as a monolithic block, but in its multiple capacities7. In addition to it, Susan Strange states that, “four analytically distinct structures of power, respectively the power to influence others’ ideas (structure of cognition), the power to influence the access to loans (financial power), the power to influence the future of their security (security structure), the power to influence their chances to have a better life in their quality of producers and consumers (production structure)”8, should be taken into account in international relations. Peter Morris defines power starting from the answer he has given to the question why an actor needs power. He notices that actors need power from at least three perspectives9: those of practice, morals and the context of their actions assessment. As far as practice is concerned, the actor has to know if he has the capacity to capitalise on his opportunities in the dispute with other actors. In the plane of morals, he must know the values that amplify his actions, and from the perspective of the context, the actor must evaluate the nature of the social system10. Morris vision is close to the one of K. Deutsch who states that, in international relations, to judge only the state power as such is not relevant. To it, its capacity to “manipulate the interdependencies”11 should be added. Alvin Toffler considers that “power entails the use of violence, wealth and knowledge (in the broadest sense) to make people take action in a given direction”12. Robert A. Dahl sees power as “the ability to have others do what they would not do otherwise”13. The Neomarxist School of international relations defines power in terms of the economic-social confrontation. It is the result of the confrontation that occurs in the system of international relations between the Centre, which has hegemonic tendencies and the Periphery, which contests the dominance of the centre14. Gianfranco Poggi distinguishes, in contemporary international relations, three forms of power manifestation: political, economic and ideological or normative15. There are of course other visions and ways to perceive power, both at the academic research level and at the political action one, as far as the system of international relations is concerned. Andreas Wenger, op.cit., in loc. cit., p. 6; Stefano Guzzini, op.cit., p. 67. Reinoud Bosch, op.cit., in loc. cit. 7 Gerard Dussoy, Quelle geopolitique au XXIe siecle ?, Editions Complexe, Paris, 2001, p. 56. 8 Susan Strange, Political Economy and International Relations, in vol. Martin Griffiths, op. cit., p. 84. 9 Peter Morris, Power. A Philosophical Analysis, Manchester University Press, Manchester, 1987, pp. 37-42. 10 Ibid. 11 www. geostrategie.ens.fr/international/CR-2005/Compte-rendu.Sabatie.pdf. 12 Alvin Toffler, Powershift/Puterea în mi[care, Bucure[ti, 1995, p. 24. 13 Robert A. Dahl, Who Governs ? Democracy and Power in an American City, Yale University Press, 1961; apud Mihail E. Ionescu, op. cit., p. 11. 14 Ibid. 15 Gianfranco Poggi, Forms of Power, Polity Press, Oxford, 2001, p. 23. 5 6 115 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 Power analysis should also take into consideration the way actors perceive and understand this reality in the international environment. In geopolitical rivalries, actors are in a permanent competition to impose their interests. To this end, they will utilise all the available means from the persuasion ones to threats and constraint. An actor capacity to compel recognition in the dispute with other actors is given by his power potential/powersources, by the place he takes in the structure of international relations and by his prestige. This aspect should not be neglected as it adds to power. The prestige given by the promotion of the political and moral values that are unanimously accepted confers the actor legitimacy and, consequently, increases its chances to succeed in the geopolitical and geostrategic competition16. The place and the role an actor has in the geopolitical field are given by his power potential, by his will to take action/powercapacity17 and by the legitimacy he builds. What is very important in deciphering an actor potential is the source defining and identifying as well as knowing the type of policy of power/powermeans, he promotes in international relations. The softpower policy supporters will allot resources that are different from the ones allotted by the hardpower policy supporters. Alvin Toffler correctly notices that, today, no matter “how many hammerings, saw cuts and ironmongery actors make”, actors satisfying their interests “will depend less on their words than on the quantity and the quality of the power each of them brings at the negotiation table”18. Traditionally, the power potential/powersources used to be assessed by totalising the human and the economic resources, the territory size, the quantity and the quality of the armed forces. From the ancient times to the Industrial Revolution, in Toffler’s first wave economy, the power potential was given by the size and the quality of a state population. This fact governed and was taken into account when the denouement of the confrontations between actors was assessed19. Entering the 17th century, in the second wave economy, respectively, made industry and modern means of transport dominant elements in projecting/assessing an actor power potential. The different rhythms of development and the application of the Industrial Revolution achievements in the production of weapons disturbed the balance and power hierarchies. The centre of gravity of the world power system started migrating from the states with huge demographic potential – for example Tsarist Russia and the Ottoman Empire, to Europe in the course of industrialisation, state that dominated the actors that were specific to the first wave20 . Thierry Chopin, Europe-Etats-Units: retrouver la voie du multilateralisme, in Synthese no. 126, 2002. Reinaud Bosch, op. cit., in loc. cit. 18 Alvin Toffler, op. cit., p. 25. 19 Mihail E. Ionescu, Dup` hegemonie, Patru scenarii de securitate pentru Europa de Est în anii 90, Scripta, Bucure[ti, 1993, p. 11. 20 Martin Wight, op. cit., pp. 40-42; Alvin and Heidi Toffler, op. cit., pp. 33-34. 16 17 116 Geopolitics • Geostrategy • International Security In the optotronic era, which is specific to the third wave economy, the actor that will understand the importance of quality in the power potential, element given by knowledge, economic growth, political stability and will/national cohesion, will have a significant advantage in the power equation. Today, the highest quality power comes from knowledge application21. The advantage is that, in case of a confrontation, it does not impose its will traditionally, by means of constraint. Knowledge, in Alvin Toffler’s opinion, can be used “to punish, reward, convince and even transform. It can change the enemy into an ally”22. This fact was evinced, during the Gulf War, by one of the CNN political analysts, who stated that “military planners must see beyond the use of bombs and missiles for a precise target acquisition. Technology will soon allow for destroying the key-elements of a military objective, without killing soldiers or destroying the target completely”23. Knowledge has propelled information as an element that is extremely important in constituting an actor power potential. With the help of knowledge, the actor that is interested in controlling a certain space can cause troubles to a concurrent actor, without resorting to the exercise of power under the form of military violence24. The American military analyst Larry Seaquist considers the power potential must be redefined, as it was narrowly conceived, referring only to “the arms, their system of application and certain spatial systems”25. Technology, educational system and economic growth are more important when measuring an actor power potential than its population or its area. “Numerically controlled machines – states Larry Seaquist – are now in many Third World countries. A pharmaceutical plant that is necessary to them has the inherent faculty to produce biological weapons. The numeric control installations that produce good-quality cars in the Third World can produce good quality missiles, too”26. From this perspective, it is thought that “electronic information leak abroad can raise security problems that are not less important than troops’ movement”27. The current lack of balance with regard to global communications28 and information results in spectacular changes in the power potential of the actors in the contemporary international environment. The actor that dominates informational fluxes can impose 21 See, at length, Colin S. Gray, RMAs and the Dimensions of Strategy, “Joint Force Quarterly”, no. 17 Autumn/Winter 1997-1998; and Idem, Modern Strategy, Oxford: Oxford University Press, forthcoming 1999; David A. Baldwin, Security Studies and the End of the Cold War, “World Politics” volume 48, no. 1, October 1995 pp. 117-141; Stuart E., Johnson and Martin C. Libicki, (eds.), Dominant Battlespace Knowledge, rev. ed. Washington DC; National Defense University, Institute for National Strategic Studies, April 1996, pp. 1-14. 22 Alvin Toffler, op. cit., p. 24. 23 Alvin and Heidi Toffler, War and Anti-War, pp. 155-156. 24 Colin S. Gray, op. cit., in loc. cit.; Andreas Wenger, op. cit., in loc. cit., p. 5. 25 After Alvin and Heidi Toffler, op. cit., pp. 235-236. 26 Ibid., p. 236 27 James N. Rosenau, Turbulen]a în politica mondial`. O teorie a schimb`rii [i continuit`]ii, Editura Academie Române, 1994, pp. 156-157. 28 Andreas Wenger, op. cit., in loc. cit., p. 5. 117 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 its own values, aspirations and image about the world29 . He has the capacity to make the rules of the game that generates the international normative system, imposing the rules, norms and principles that regulate the actors conduct in the geopolitical field and, consequently, the legitimacy of exercising power. The information that is aimed at with precision via mass-media is as important as exerting power through classical means30. The decision in the Cold War was given by the gun that was charged with images/ information. If Nicolae Ceausescu had understood the impact of the revolution in mass information means and if he had studied the role of mass media in overthrowing Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines31, maybe a “velvet revolution” would have been possible too, just like in the majority of former communist countries. In the battle for the “informational space” – in the so-called “imagologic war” – the victory is no longer recorded as physical elimination or the adversary submission and the occupation of his sovereignty space, but as the “occupation of his mind” with those representations and convictions that would turn the adversary into an ally32. For an actor to be able to use the information weapon with precision, he has to possess the most effective technologies to get to the target. Economic power, a basic indicator of the power potential of actors in the future, is no longer measured only in tangible resources, but especially in those having to deal with the idea of performance that are intangible ones. The quantity, exactly like in the case of other domains, no longer accumulates power with necessity. A lot of states possess huge economic primary resources, but these are not the great economic powers of the world at the same time. This is not valid for the part of economic resources of a state power potential. The competition for the control of the intangible resources in the power potential tends to replace that directed towards the accumulation of weapons and military technique. As the military threats decrease in intensity, the competition/conflicts for economic resources will intensify. In analyst Edward N. Luttwak’s opinion, the fear of a nuclear war, with incalculable consequences for humankind, will cause a shift from the military means to economic ones with the purpose of solving the conflicts among states. “Economic” weapons worked during the Golf conflict, as well as in that from the former Yugoslavian space33. The idea according to which “the trade methods replace the military ones – available capital instead of fire power, civilian innovation instead of technical-military progress and market penetration instead of garrisons and bases” is more and more employed34. Steven Lukes, Power: A Radical View, McMillan, London, 1974, p. 34. Alvin and Heidi Toffler, op. cit., p. 203. 31 Ibid., pp. 347-348. 32 Lambakis, Space Control in Desert Storm and Beyond, in “Orbis” Volume 39, nr. 3, Summer, 1995; and The United States in Lilliput: The Tragedy of Fleeting Space Power, in “Strategic Review”, Volume 24, nr. 1, Winter 1996. 33 Sergiu T`ma[, Geopolitica, Editura Comunicare.ro, Bucure[ti, 2001, p. 228. 34 Lt Col Constantin Hlihor, Europa în c`utarea unei noi arhitecturi de securitate, in “Observatorul Militar”, no. 49. 10-16 December, 1997. p. 12. 29 30 118 Geopolitics • Geostrategy • International Security A country’s power potential, and its position in the world hierarchy are the ones that reflect the country’s possibility to acquire an economic rise at a faster pace35. Besides the quantitative indicators for the state’s economic potential, the productivity dynamics and the value added to the manufactured products are elements of great importance in perceiving economic evolutions. Nevertheless, it is the military dimension of the power potential that is believed to give the actor’s place and role in the power equation within the international relations system, at a certain moment. Just as no one would ever entirely eliminate the importance of raw materials or manual labour during the production process, it would be absurd for us to ignore the material elements of the destructive capacity or the human element in the military potential. The idea that the Gulf War was a high-tech one, in which the human element was eliminated from the fight, is a fantasy36. Superior officers Rosanne Bailey and Thomas Kearn, participants in the Gulf confrontations, state that: “The critical factor that leads to success in the exploitation of technology remains the human factor, typically exemplified in the performance from “Desert Storm” of fight pilots who used the AIM-7 air-to-air missile. The progress was a fivefold performance as against Vietnam, a direct result for a more improved training” 37. Smart weapons require smart soldiers, adequately trained for operating ultra-sophisticated technology. Quality is the essential element in assessing the human dimension of the military factor, and not the quantity. Nowadays, a fighter aircraft is the equivalent of a supercomputer with wings38. Its effectiveness almost entirely depends on the knowledge packed in avionics, armament, and in the pilot’s brain. The same thing, but on a small scale, happens to the fighters from the other arms. The Gulf War completely proved this fact. The famous French military theorist and analyst Pierre Gallois, researching these realities for the First Gulf War, stated that “The United States sent 500 000 soldiers in the Golf, maintaining between 200 000-300 000 soldiers in rear guard, for logistic purposes. But, in fact, the war was won by only 2 000 soldiers”39. On the other side, Saddam Hussein opposed an army of over one million soldiers, with an experience of war of almost 10 years, but qualitatively inferior as far as training and the general level of preparation are concerned, while over 98% of the American volunteer in the Gulf were high school graduates, and many of them had even a higher education40. That is why today, in order to assess the dimension of the human factor within the power potential, it is more relevant to make use of the qualitative indicator rather than the quantitative one. For a state, the size of population means almost nothing Sergiu T`ma[, op. cit., p. 230. William T. Johnsen, Redefining Land Power for the 21st Century, Carlisle Barracks, Pa., US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, 7 May 1998, p. 4; Alvin and Heidi Toffler, op. cit., p. 93. 37 Alvin and Heidi Toffler, op. cit., p. 94. 38 Steven Lambakis, op. cit. 39 Alvin and Heidi Toffler, op. cit., p. 93. 40 Ibidem, p. 94. 35 36 119 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 for the strength of the future armed forces. By simply comparing the maps illustrating the demographic potential with the ones showing the population’s education and urbanisation level, one can easily notice a thing that almost goes without saying, that the armed forces that are acknowledged as being the best ones do not belong to the states that have the highest population density. There are also very interesting the discussions over the place and the role nuclear weapon has held as against the super-sophisticated non-lethal weapons in the post-Cold War era in dimensioning a state’s power potential. The American analysts Janet and Chris Morris, strategy experts, believe that a system of new technologies may replace the classic military arsenal, which would be employed to defeat the enemy with minimum bloodshed. They “can anticipate, detect, prevent or block the use of lethal means, reducing human losses up to minimum”41. Their list might comprise ultrasounds generators to control masses, substances used to break metals into pieces or to prevent combat machines from moving by modifying the chemical structures of the fuel etc. Moriss’ opinions, even if they are sometimes argued42, can be found in some official American documents regarding military strategies43, and, at global level, one could say that they were partially confirmed at the end of the Cold War, in the confrontation between the two superpowers: USA and USSR. The former Soviet Union first disappeared from the power equation and, then, disappeared as a state from the international relations system, certainly owing to the regime crisis, but one cannot ignore the impact the Strategic Defence Initiative ~ SDI had on it. This questioned the efficiency of Soviet long-range missiles. If SDI could effectively block the missiles launched by Soviets before they reached US territory, then those would have become useless, and Moscow would have been the target of a nuclear attack without fearing for retaliations on the part of the attacker. The economic decline of the Soviet Union made it impossible for it to respond to the SDI. Moscow saw that it could not defend its empire unless an unacceptable expenditure and, consequently, it withdrew from the former satellite countries44. The Cold War had been lost for the Soviet Union without its huge nuclear arsenal being used for its rescue. Nevertheless, there are experts and analysts who believe that nuclear weapons will further play a special part in the power potential of a state even after the Cold War45. Sir Michael Quinlan, referring to this aspect, states: “The absence of war between advanced states is a key success. We must seek to perpetuate it. Weapons are instrumental and secondary; Ibidem, p. 154. Ibidem, p. 162. 43 See Joint Vision 2010, America’s Military: Preparing for Tomorrow, pp. 7, 11-15; National Military Strategy of the United States of America, 1997, pp.18-21. 44 See Zbigniew Brzezinski, Excerpts from “The Hegemonic Quicksand”, The National Interest, winter 2003/04, p. 209-242; Mihail Gorbaciov, Memorii, Editura Nemira, Bucure[ti, 1994, pp. 194-205; 211-222; Alvin Toffler, op. cit., pp. 391-392. 45 Florian Gârz, NATO: Globalizare sau dispari]ie ? De la R`zboiul rece la pacea pierdut`, Bucure[ti, 1995, p. 58. 41 42 120 Geopolitics • Geostrategy • International Security the basic aim is to avoid war. Better a world with nuclear weapons but no major war than one with major war but no nuclear weapons”46. Other experts and analysts from France embrace the same idea, when they “argue vehemently against any minimisation of the role of nuclear weapons in deterrence”47, and the same thing happens with some Americans. The National Military Strategy of the United States of America stipulates that the “strategic nuclear weapons remain the keystone of US deterrent strategy”48. The United States and the Russian Federation are known to maintain a great part of their nuclear arsenal in a permanent state of fight49. At the same time, these states will continue to take action against nuclear proliferation through economic, political or combined pressures, although with some concessions, if it is the case: they will control the nuclear technology sales to the countries that persist in producing nuclear weapons. Yet, there are countries in the world that are engaged in nuclear arming programmes, such as India, Egypt, Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, Pakistan. From this perspective, nuclear proliferation will only be delayed, and not stopped. There are other experts who think that the reduction made by USA and the Russian Federation in their nuclear reserve are not significant, because “by means of those treaties, Americans and Russians throw away the old nuclear striking means (…) and keep the ultramodern, mobile and very accurate ones”50. Therefore, we witness only an ample process of dissemination of missiles and of other vectors that are capable to transport nuclear weapons to their target, and not the reduction of nuclear arsenal. Military and political analysts say that nuclear arsenal must be taken into account when a state’s power potential is assessed51. Although humankind have not experienced nuclear war – Japan was a tragic experiment – the use of nuclear armament dominates the strategic thinking of the main actors of the international relations following the Cold War. The states that possess nuclear weapons have actual plans of usage at their disposal, and the exercises at strategic level scenarios with incalculable consequences in case of the use of nuclear weapons to escalate conflicts are “played”. Deciphering the mechanisms that lead to the rise or fall of an actor from the top of the power equation has drawn historians attention for a long time, and, after the Second World War, that of the theorists of international relations52, the political and geopolitical analysts. Paul Kennedy reckons that the establishment of a long-term balance between their economic potential and their military power facilitates the rise of some states among the great powers. The decline and the fall from the top of the power equation begin After Eugene E. Habiger, Strategic Forces for Deterrence, in “Joint Forces Quarterly”, Winter ‘96/’97, p. 66. Jacquelin K. Davis, Charles M. Perry, and Andrew C. Winner, The Looming Alliance Debate, over Nuclear Weapons, in “Joint Forces Quarterly”, Spring 1997, p. 84. 48 National Military Strategy of the United States of America, 1997, p. 25. 49 Florian Gârz, op. cit., pp. 64-65. 50 Ibidem, p. 67. 51 Barry R. Posen, Command of Commons. The Military Foundations of US Hegemony, The Mitt Press, 2001, in http://mittpress.mitt.edu/journals. 52 Stefano Guzzini, op. cit., passim. 46 47 121 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 when this balance is disturbed and a discrepancy between the economic basis and the military expenditure originating in unrealistic strategic objectives occurs53. The statements of the American analyst are valid for the correlations which are established between economies and armed forces that are specific to the second wave, and not to those specific to the 21st century. There may occur situations in which the military power does not decrease in a parallel direction and simultaneously with the economic one. A telling example is the one of the Russian Federation, during its period of transition. There are also cases when the economic rise does not necessarily result in the increase of the military potential – as it was the case for Germany and Japan after the Second World War. The analyst George Modelski considers that the rise/fall of powers in the system of international relations is caused/confirmed by the major conflicts in which the subjects are involved. Studying the major conflicts of the modern and contemporary era, G. Modelski identifies a series of hegemonic cycles associated with the “long economic cycles in which the rise of prices and the scarcity of resources result in decreasing power, its concentration taking place under the circumstances of some low prices and the richness of resources”54. The famous theorist of the international relations Martin Wight, analysing the role of great powers in the history of international relations, reckoned that the term “dominant power” is not a syntagm that has been accepted in diplomacy. The other states in the international system recognise, in fact, a dominant power either by collaborating with it, or by joining the resistance against it. But hegemony has never been accepted in theory55. The conflicts in which the two superpowers – USA and USSR – were involved during the Cold War confirm the statement of the American analyst. Sometimes, the ones who seem weak win eventually, and the ones who seem disorganised outrun the more organised ones, as it was the case of the Soviet invasion in the wars in Algeria, Vietnam or Afghanistan. The historian and military analyst Mihail E. Ionescu is close to Wight’s conception, stating that, in fact, it is almost impossible to establish a unitary actional hierarchy in the power equation because of the existence of a structural interdependence within the international relations system. Hierarchies in the military, economic plane or “at the low level of trans-national interdependencies” are not identical. World order is not given by the traditional balance of power56. The attacks on September 11, 2001 seemed to disturb the traditional way to appreciate dominant power, in a more and more globalised world. Al-Qaeda, “a gang of insane and gifted terrorists”57, succeeded in causing troubles to the only existing superpower after the end of the Cold War. Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000, 1987, passim. 54 After Mihail E. Ionescu, op. cit., pp. 19-22. 55 Martin Wight, op. cit., p. 49. 56 Mihail E. Ionescu, op. cit., p. 41. 57 Emmanuel Todd, Sfâr[itul imperiului. Eseu despre descompunerea sistemului american, Editura Albatros, Bucure[ti, 2003, p. 6. 53 122 Geopolitics • Geostrategy • International Security Mass-media and some analysts do not stop presenting this organisation as a terrible and omnipresent actor. Is it in the position of a great power ? To fight against terrorism a multinational coalition was set up and there are voices who speak about a fourth world war58 and, following the logic of Realism classical theory, we could state that terrorism has become an omnipotent actor. The paradox in the analysis shows that power appreciation/perception in the contemporary international environment cannot be realised by appealing to classical instruments and methods. Mention should be made that even if the most advanced means are used it does not have better results. Roni Linser59, in a study conducted at the Department of Political Science, University of Melbourne in 2004, using mathematical-information modelling, comes to the conclusion that it is premature for us to believe that we can draw pertinent conclusions in anticipating the evolutions in the international environment. The public opinion, and not only, need explanations for what happens in international life and diplomats cannot lack expertise to make decisions. That is why, when estimates of power are made in geopolitical and geostrategic analysis, to see what the possible hierarchies of the actors in a certain area or at global level are, not only potential elements but also the relations between the actors must be taken into consideration. In James Rosenau’s opinion, political relations means more than the actors’ power fundaments60. The place an actor holds at a certain time in the power hierarchy, as we will further see, the way he perceives his position, makes him act/react to impose/affirm his interest in a certain geographical area. Some experts appreciate that getting to know the power of the actors involved in competition/geopolitical rivalries well is accomplished if the following questions could be answered61: How is the power exercised on the other actors ? What are the outcomes of its exercise in the geopolitical system/field ? What interactions will its use generate ? What will the reaction of the political and other institutions with vocation in the field of international relations be ? Practically, “a portrait” of power in its three dimensions: power as potential/powermeans; power as relations/powercapacity and power as structure is outlined. Norman Podhoretz, How to Win World War IV ?, in “Commentary”, February 2002, pp. 19-28. Roni Linser, Predictive Power of Role-Play Simulations in Political Science: experience of an e-Learning tool, in http://www.simplay.net/papers/RPSpredictive_power.html#U6. 60 James N. Rosenau, op. cit., p. 148. 61 Reinaud Bosch, op. cit. in loc. cit. 58 59 123 POLITICAL-MILITARY RELATIONS IN THE WIDER BLACK SEA AREA ~ Manifestations and Tendencies ~ Captain Ion STAN ~ Chief Inspector for the Naval Forces, the Ministry of Defence Inspectorate ~ R omania’s geographical location, at the crossroads of the main directions in transportation – East-West and North-South –, is the geostrategical envy of many states, as it has offered opportunities for terrestrial and naval transportation in the Western part of the Black Sea since ancient times. Today, a great advantage is represented by the direct connection between the Black Sea and the North Sea, through rivers and navigable channels. Moreover, the rising interest of European countries in the energetic resources in the Caspian Sea generates new perspectives as far as the transportation of natural gas and oil across the area is concerned. The main road of the goods produced in the Far East to be sold in Western countries, the famous “Silk Road”, follows the transportation routes through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the Southern Caucasus and the Black Sea Area, to the Central and Western Europe. All types of transportation used to be and are still threatened with various dangers. Nowadays, acts of piracy and robbery have less chances of success, but a new threat has emerged – terrorism, which accompanies local, interethnic, religious or other conflicts. In consequence, new methods and means to combat any type of threat are sought nowadays, resulting in new types of cooperation, new alliances that adopt new strategies to guarantee security and stability in the own areas of interest within the states of the world. The recognition of the “Silk Road” importance, as an intercontinental commercial flux, and of the Black Sea Area, as both a geostrategic entity and a turntable at strategic level, has made for the Wider Black Sea Area to be more and more the centre of attention of Western countries and of organisations with vocation for international security – NATO, OSCE, ONU and the European Union. 124 Geopolitics • Geostrategy • International Security Geostrategic Characteristics The Wider Black Sea Area has been more and more talked about lately, as an area that, besides the Black Sea littoral states – Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine, comprises not only the countries in the vicinity of the Caspian Sea – Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also Moldova and the countries in the Balkans – Greece, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, Macedonia, Croatia and Slovenia. The Wider Black Sea Area separates and unites, at the same time, the three neighbouring continents – Europe, Asia and Africa, thus becoming a strategic node of communications at the crossroads of main trade, tourist or other routes. The issue of the geostrategic position of the Black Sea and the neighbouring territories has been many times analysed and debated, but it is far from being exhausted. As this important position cannot escape the attention of the great strategists of the world, their works related to the topic are very extensive. If the “stage” remained and will remain relatively the same, from the physicalgeographical point of view, we can witness “on-the-fly” change of the “directors”, “script writers” and “actors”, interested not only in the “plays” that can be played on this stage but also in the advantages they may directly or indirectly derive from it. The end of the Cold War, once with the disappearance of the Soviet Union and the Communist Bloc from the political scene allowed for the affirmation and confirmation of non-state actors, the development of a political dialogue and international cooperation based on partnership and trust, concomitantly with the rapid dissemination of the values of pluralist democracy, as well as that of the market economy. However, the end of the Cold War has not yet brought, either in Europe or in the Black Sea region and the South East of Europe, peace, stability and prosperity. On the contrary, it favoured the reactivation of latent conflicts, simultaneously with the appearance of others, thus generating new hubs of tension and insecurity in the Wider Black Sea Area: Abkhazia, Transdnistria, Chechnya, Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh etc. These hubs add to the picture of the hot spots in the Balkans and directly influence zonal and regional security and stability. The accentuation of the energetic crisis has inevitably led to the amplification of competition for the strategic resources in the Caspian Sea Basin, transportation routes and commodity markets, resulting in reconsidering the role of the Wider Black Sea Area within the Euro-Asiatic and Euro-Atlantic Security Strategy. The oil reserves in Central Asia are very rich: Azerbaijan has 75 billion barrels, Kazakhstan – 50 billion barrels, and Russia, in the Caspian Sea, over 5 billion barrels. These reserves cannot be brought to the main Western consumers other way but using the great pipelines that approximately follow the “Silk Road”. 125 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 The Black Sea Basin represents, on the one hand, an extension of the Mediterranean Basin towards the Baltic Sea and, on the other hand an extension, through the Caspian Sea Basin, towards Central Asia and the Middle East, rising thus the interest of the greatest world actors that have an important political, economic, military, cultural, demographic etc. potential and that claim for the main roles in the world hierarchy (USA, Russia, China, Japan, India, Western European countries). The emergence and affirmation of new state and non-state actors in the competition for reconfiguring the hierarchy of world power highlight a more and more active preoccupation with making Central Asia and the Middle East, the Black Sea Basin included, as linking elements for the two geographical entities involved into the game of global economic and political interests. The change of the places for the disposition of the USA military bases in Europe, as well as the new plans to include Romania and Bulgaria among the possible places for the disposition of American military bases, to better meet the current strategic interests, prove the enhancement in the importance of the Black Sea Basin in the near future. The fact the Wider Black Sea Area is in the centre of current strategic preoccupation is not only a matter of global interest but also a prerequisite for the political situation positive development, a guarantee of regional and world stability and security. Given this background, the necessity for observing human rights and for ensuring individual welfare and prosperity in the Wider Black Sea Area, too, has become as mandatory requirements in the attempts to consolidate a more secure and stable world. The “Silk Road” towards West Passes through Romania, too From Ancient times, the “Silk Road” has been the most famous westward route for the goods produced in the Far East. Once the maritime transportation system developed, Western countries started avoiding the old caravans routes, through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the Southern Caucasus and the Black Sea Area, to escape from the gangs of thieves that menaced the ones who used those routes. At sea, the goods on board of merchant ships could be easily protected against pirates’ threat, with the help of warship fleets that navigated on the world seas and oceans. Merchant ships, larger and safer, could carry, by sea, large quantities of goods from the Far and Middle East directly to the ports in Western countries and from there to the final destination, without facing other dangers. Thus, maritime transportation has developed in the Black Sea, too, connecting the ports in the East with those in the North, South or West, and through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits, merchant ships can freely navigate on all the seas and oceans, carrying various goods towards and from the farthest ports in the world. 126 Geopolitics • Geostrategy • International Security We feel bound to recognise that, during the latest period, the number of pirate attacks has considerably decreased, becoming almost inexistent, due to the present international legislation and the severe measures of surveillance and intervention at sea currently taken. The more extensive use of maritime routes has led to the substantial reduction in land transportation, on the “Silk Road”, although they have never totally disappeared. On the contrary, we can say that the “dusty road for caravans” has changed into an important network of modern roads and rails that connect the East and the West, along the old communication routes. Traders in Central and Eastern Europe have continued using, on large scale, the networks of traditional communications proper to the “Silk Road” to carry goods from and towards Central Asia and the Middle East. Once the energy crisis was expanded at world level, Western countries have become more and more interested in the natural hydrocarbon reserves in Central Asia and the Caspian Sea Area. Moreover, the beginning of an organised fight against terrorism after September 11, 2001 started to offer new perspectives for land transportation, so the now modernised terrestrial networks on the “Silk Road” have been paid attention again. The main “goods” that are carried today to the European countries are gas and oil, and the means of transportation used are pipelines and tankers. The negotiations regarding the companies allowed to ensure exploitation and transportation, as well as regarding the transportation routes have been very hot and they have not finished yet. The Main Trade Routes The main trade routes that almost exactly follow the “Silk Road” from the Central Asia towards Europe pass towards the North and the West of Europe, through the Caspian Sea and then, through the Black Sea Basin, as follows: North of the Black Sea – the road stars from the Caspian Sea, through Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, then the road diverges towards the North and the Centre of Europe and then towards the West. South of the Black Sea – the road starts from the Caspian Sea, through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey towards the Mediterranean Sea, then, at sea, towards the centre of Europe, through the Aegean Sea and the Adriatic Sea, or, directly towards the West. Through and over the Black Sea – this is the road of great interest for us, the Romanians, as starting from the Caspian Sea, it passes across the Republic of Azerbaijan and Georgia, then it may traverse the area directly from the East to West through the Black Sea, by pipelines, or over the Black Sea, by merchant ships, then to the other European countries, through the Romanian or Bulgarian ports. Advantages and Disadvantages Having in view the strategic importance of the hydrocarbon reserves in Central Asia and the Caspian Sea Basin, we have to analyse the way one of the above-mentioned roads is chosen, more from the perspective of exporters, route operators and, last but not least, from the one of gas and oil consumers. 127 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 A series of conferences and bi- or multilateral negotiations have taken place lately, not only between the owners of these hydrocarbon reserves and the great consumers in the USA and Europe but also between the owners and all those interested in making profit out of this business. It is natural for each country to see the three possible routes through the prism of the derived advantages and disadvantages. We can thus consider that these stay, mainly, at the negotiation table. Each consumer is interested in getting, safely, the entire quantity it needs, at the time established by contract and at a low price. However, all these conditions depend on a large range of factors such as: geographical conditions, the length of the road, means of transportation and, last but not least, the losses resulted from the threats and menaces to transports. The Southern road has already been tried as, even since the last year, the first quantities of oil and gas from the Caspian Sea have been delivered to the Western countries through the pipelines installed and put in use on the route Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan (Turkish port at the Mediterranean Sea). Despite the geographical conditions in the area that are very rough and the length of the pipeline, the chosen means ensures a cheaper transport, the works were successfully completed but it is difficult and expensive to ensure the safety of transport. This route is advantageous only for the Western countries. The Northern route can be accomplished in almost the same conditions as the Southern one, although it is more advantageous for the countries in the East and the North of Europe. For the countries in Central Europe, as well as for those in the North and the West of Europe the third route would be the most advantageous, respectively the one that crosses the Black Sea from the East to the West. Although this route is the straightest one, it is difficult for the pipes to be installed. However tankers can be used in this case, as through the already existent oil terminals in the ports of Constanta and Midia, they can safely carry great quantities of oil from the Eastern part of the Black Sea, the Georgian ports, directly towards the centre of Europe. Whenever we speak about the “Silk Road” we have to consider not only oil but also all the products that can be transported on this route. In fact, nowadays, commercial exchanges have a double sense, respectively from Europe to the Central Asia and the Middle East, too. We can now say that all types of means of transportation have been modernised and real road and railway networks have been developed (TRACECA), however maritime transportation is the most efficient one, so the route over the Black Sea is the most advantageous for the European countries, except those in the North of the Black Sea. 128 Geopolitics • Geostrategy • International Security Goods Transportation Romania has to take full advantage of both its geostrategic location and the opportunities generated by the fact that the trade exchanges made on the rediscovered routes of the “Silk Road” have been paid more and more attention, one of this routes being the one that crosses the maritime ports in the West of the Black Sea, then through the natural or artificial navigable routes, to the North Sea. Mention should be made that, for great quantities of goods, maritime transportation is the most profitable one, except the perishable goods. Romania must also start using its capacities to store and process oil and natural gas at the Midia-Navodari Petrochemical Complex efficiently, so that it could be a provider of oil derivates and refined products for the other European countries. The direct connection between the Black Sea and the North Sea through the Danube-Black Sea Canal, the Danube and the Rhine, makes it possible for the Romanian ships to carry at sea the Eastern goods to the West and the Western ones to the East. The capacities of the ports in Constanta can ensure the rapid transhipment of any type of materials from the ships to the means of road, railway or fluvial transport and vice versa, so that they stay in the port for a very short period of time. Given these conditions, the ones of the development of multinational cooperation in the Danube Basin, it is predictable that this way of communication should be revitalised and turned into a genuine Cross-European navigable route, which can contribute to render the maritime and fluvial transportation routes in the entire Black Sea Area, the connection to the Caspian Sea Basin, through the Azov, Volga-Don System included, profitable. Risks and Threats From the economical point of view, the Wider Black Sea Area represents the necessary connection with the strategically energy and material resources in Central Asia and the Middle East, as well as with these markets that have undergone a process of development and affirmation. From the military point of view, our interest has acquired new dimensions in the context of asymmetric threats amplification and diversification. Due to the existence of some specific vulnerabilities in the Wider Black Sea Area, contrary to the evolutions that are favourable to détente and international cooperation, threats and military or non-military challenges that can endanger security and stability in the entire region continue to be manifest. We can thus say that the main challenges, risks and threats are the following: • political-economical instability in some of the ex-communist countries in the proximity of the Black Sea; • separatist movements, terrorism, sabotage and piracy; • interethnic and inter-religious conflicts; • economic crises, poverty, corruption and clandestine emigration; • organised crime, illegal weapons, drugs, dangerous materials and human beings trafficking; 129 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 • natural catastrophes, accidental or intentionally caused; • theatres of military actions in the vicinity; • increasing environmental pollution; • economical competition caused by the exploitation and transport of the oil from Central Asia, the Caspian Sea and the Middle East; • intensification of the extremist actions of Islamic peoples, especially among the intellectuals and the young; • increasing promotion of the interests of the Islamic states in Europe and stimulation of the Islamic fundamentalism among some compact ethnic groups in the South-East of Europe; • existence of hidden sources that financially support terrorist groups. The Influence of NATO and EU Enlargement After the latest NATO enlargement, it is the first time in the history of the region a relative state of equilibrium has been reached: three NATO Member States (Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria) and three non-member states, although they have special relations of partnership with the Alliance (Russia, Ukraine, Georgia). Romania and Bulgaria becoming NATO Member States renders evident the necessity for these countries to become more active in the region, by promoting NATO policy in the Wider Black Sea Area. At the same time, it is necessary for the states in the region to put in value the good neighbourhood and cooperation relations on multiple levels with the other Black Sea littoral states. Given the conditions, the Back Sea becomes a sea of cooperation and collaboration on new bases of equality, NATO presence being thus one that is neither symbolic nor perceived as dangerous, but a substantial one that has positive effects. The almost simultaneously EU and NATO enlargement introduces a new factor of strategic nature in the region, as three of the Black Sea littoral states (Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey) were included in the area of prosperity of the unique market and in the future arrangements regarding the Common Security and Defence Policy. Now Turkey has been approved to open the negotiations to adhere to the European Union. EU extended relations with the Russian Federation, Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia highlights its rising interest in the Wider Black Sea Area, more and more evidently perceived as a bridge to the energetic resources and the commodity markets in the Caspian Sea Area, Central Asia and the Middle East. With regard to the new status of the Russian Federation and EU relations, as well as to the Strategic Partnership with the USA and to Ukraine relations with the two integrative 130 Geopolitics • Geostrategy • International Security institutions and with the USA separately, new constructive approaches can be made, in a multilateral frame, to the issues concerning regional security, mainly combating unconventional threats, to some of the aspects concerning the military body reform or energetic security. The efforts made to resolve the “frozen conflicts” in Abkhazia, Transdnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh and others might be subscribed to it. What pleases us even more is the progress made with the negotiations regarding the withdrawal of the Russian troops and military arsenals that are still placed in the territories of the states around the Black Sea. The presence of NATO Member States in leading the military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq stands proof for the enlargement of NATO sphere of interest outside its traditional borders, towards Central Asia and the Middle East. NATO’s increasing involvement in managing the crisis situations outside its area of responsibility makes the Wider Black Sea Area become an outpost that is necessary and useful for the Alliance to project the stability and security in the region. The partial detent of the political relations between Greece and Turkey in providing a reasonable solution for the issue of Cyprus, in connection with Turkey’s accession to EU, represents a beneficial and dynamic factor in the regional cooperation within the Wider Black Sea Area. An initiative meant to make the intensions of cooperation in the Black Sea Area more concrete was that of launching the “BLACKSEAFOR”, a NATO-type naval group that comprises all the six littoral states, each of them, in turn, having the leadership for one year. Thus, Romania took the leadership of “BLACKSEAFOR” in 2005, and the Russian Federation this year. The main objective is that of accomplishing and enhancing interoperability between the involved naval forces, so that they could carry out common actions at sea, such as: surveillance, search-rescue, mines and pollution combat and humanitarian aid operations in case of calamities etc. “BLACKSEAFOR” annual activities also ensure reciprocal getting accustomed to the participants through visiting the ports, meeting the local people, which directly contributes to the consolidation of trust and security in the Black Sea. Main Directions The Wider Black Sea Area represents the strategic pole in securing the “Silk Road”, as it is to become one of the elements of stability in Europe for the next 10-20 years. The North-Atlantic Alliance and the European Union will monitor promoting peace and security in the region, being thus forced to counteract the risks generated by terrorist acts, sabotage and organised crime, as well as by interruptions in the flux of energy resources. Although NATO has not directly approached the regional security strategy in the Central Asia – the Caucasus – the Black Sea axis, we cannot but notice the new tendencies in the field of cooperation, the amplification of the dialogue and the development of the relations with the Russian Federation, Ukraine, with the countries South of the Caucasus and the ones in the Balkans. 131 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 The complex situation in the Black Sea Area requires the creation of a background for dialogue, larger than the one that has been offered so far by the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Forum – BSEC. One notable example of the good intensions of regional cooperation and collaboration is represented by the recent reunion in Bucharest (June current year), organised at the initiative of the President of Romania, Traian Basescu, to create the Black Sea Forum. To strengthen regional cooperation with a view to preventing and combating asymmetric and unconventional risks (terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, organised crime, illegal armament and human beings trafficking), complex relations of collaboration between America, Europe, Russia and the countries in the Caspian Sea region and Central Asia are necessary. From this perspective, NATO will be able to make proof of its abilities and capacities through defence actions against chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear attacks – CBRN, ensuring the superiority of the means of communication necessary to the command echelon, accomplishing interoperability and rapid deployment of combat forces, as well as their support. The states on the axis the Black Sea – the South Caucasus – the Caspian Sea – Central Asia, where, in the latest years, the Western countries have developed economic, strategic and security interests, have the political desire to collaborate, although they have not had a common political-military action yet. That is why, through creating new institutions and launching new common projects, concrete and specific, the political-military dimension of the geopolitical and geostrategic action can be ensured. We appreciate that the institutions and conventions meant to regulate the unspecific domains of cooperation on the “Silk Road” are essential although not sufficient to get the estimated results for this stage. The perspective of the European Union enlargement towards the South-East, the possible inclusion of Turkey, as well as the European aspirations in the South Caucasus prefigure the approach of the issue from a purely constructive strategic vision. There has already been the Economic Community of Central Asia and a new Stability Pact is to be created in the Caucasus, following the example of the Stability Pact in the Balkans. The present conditions have caused the starting of the Process of political-military cooperation in the Wider Black Sea Area to represent a unique opportunity for the Euro-Atlantic Community, beneficial for all the states in these regions. The objectives of the political-military cooperation in the Wider Black Sea Area, given the conditions, might be: to build modern infrastructure networks, revitalising the EU programmes in the domains of telecommunications and informatics, transport (TRACECA), energy (INOGATE); to consolidate regional projects for the economical-social development; to extend strategic partnerships; to develop the economical and commercial relations between Romania and the countries in the East of the Black Sea; 132 Geopolitics • Geostrategy • International Security to provide consultancy and economical support for the countries in the East of the Black Sea to develop and modernise the transportation networks towards the Black Sea; to ensure protection for the naval transportation and for the oil pipelines in the Black Sea; to modernise the Romanian naval transportation infrastructure (maritime and fluvial), the railway and road ones; to discourage the actions that may be law infringements, addressed to ways and means of transportation; to consolidate democracy and eliminate disastrous economic situations that make countries vulnerable to extremism and terrorism; to consolidate, without interruption, the strategy of regional cooperation at all levels; to peacefully resolve the issues related to the separatist movements in the region, especially those in Armenia and Azerbaijan; to assimilate the practices of cross-border and sub-regional cooperation, which have already been experienced within the stability pact; to sustain a regional programme for the protection of the environmental protection and for enduring development in the region circumscribed to the Black Sea. International efforts should work in concert to materialise a political and economical offer for the states in the Black Sea – Caucasus Area under the form of a Regional Stability and Development Pact, with mechanisms similarly to those of the Stability Pact for South-East Europe or inspired by it. The orientation towards a set of priorities that are flexible, feasible on short and medium term can lead to the democratic stability and security the Wider Black Sea Area needs. A primordial convergence factor in the region will be represented by the development of commerce. The pursued objectives are the acceleration of preparing the entire region for the status of market economy, encouraging the areas of free exchange, the clarification of the status of energetic East-West corridors and the enhancement, in perspective, of the security of these energy routes. On the other hand, strengthening the system of border administration is part of the Europenisation of the strategic East-West relation, together with the development of cooperation between local communities in border areas. Practical approaches in this domain are meant to serve the vital interests of all categories of partners, on the entire surface of the Wider Black Sea Area. On short and medium term, the Black Sea Basin and the adjacent area will remain an active area from the point of view of political, economical and even military events that may affect regional and global security. The potential for conflict that exists in the area, from the “frozen” conflicts to the latent and ongoing ones, corroborated with the existence 133 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 of some terrorist groups and elements of organised crime, as well as with the rising interest of some state and non-state actors in the strategic resources from the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East and the need for the access to them to be under control, will cause a new substantial concentration of forces and means. In consequence, we will witness the apparition of new forms of political-military cooperation and collaboration in the Wider Black Sea Area. Selective bibliography • Silviu Jora, Consequences of NATO and EU Enlargement for Regional Cooperation, Harvard University, April 2002. • George-Cristian Maior, The Future of the Security Environment in the Region: New Strategic Risks, Harvard University, April 2002. • Aurel Sorin Encu]escu, The Impact of the 2004 Dual Enlargement upon the Security of South-East Europe, “Manfred Wörner” Euro-Atlantic Asociation, July 2003. • George-Cristian Maior, The New Allies and Emerging Security Dynamics in the Black Sea Area, Columbia University, March 2004. • Colonel dr. Ion Co[codaru, Determin`ri geopolitice [i geostrategice în Bazinul M`rii Negre [i în zona adiacent` acestuia, Gândirea Militar` Româneasc` Journal, April 2004. 134 THE W AR IN AFGHANIST AN WAR AFGHANISTAN IN THE CONTEXT OF WIPING OUT WORLD TERRORISM T Lieutenant Colonel Vasile VREME, PhD ~ Commander, 341th Infantry Battalion ~ errorism, which used to be considered a strategic objective of external security, has now become not only a domestic issue for each state in turn, but also an international one, to which all the states in the world should pay attention. The expansion of this scourge at international level has become more and more important. The fact that political, social, interethnic and religious contradictions have become acute at global level, corruption, external interference in the problems of weaker states, local and regional conflicts have more and more contributed to the motivation of terrorist organisations that have in hand numerous human resources and considerable military, material and financial support, so that terrorism is the most dangerous crime described by penal law. Being an extreme form of expression for the social, ethnic and religious radicalism and extremism, terrorism knows an unprecedented expansion at international level. In this context we can state that the wars and conflicts that take place in a certain region of the world can, in time, acquire new valences and extend to other territories, entailing new forces and means and having thus an international aspect. A convincing example of this fact is given by Central Asia, which is now the object of expansion and aggression on the part of the forces of terrorism and international extremism. An important danger for the security of not only the states in Central Asia but also in the entire world is the war in Afghanistan, country that is now (April 2006) changed into a polygon of terror, a support for international terrorism and extremism, an extremely favourable place for drugs traffickers. Afghanistan represents, at this time, one of the shortest ways for transiting hundreds of tones of opium and heroin towards the countries in Europe and North America. The transport can be made, by means of caravans, from the tribal zones to Baluchistan, from where they leave Pakistan for Iran. Another route can be the one through the Republics in Central Asia. After the plates are transported and handled, using a variety of methods – mules, camels, lorries and intermediaries included, they get to Europe and from here, across the ocean. Even since 1960, the Afghan hashish has been considered the best one. The Afghan plants are highly appreciated as they rise very fast and produce 135 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 great quantities of resin. The Afghan hashish is known for its unaltered colour and texture, its sweetness and its narcotic properties, as it induces profound dreamlike states. In their fight for power, not only during 1997-1999 but also after taking the power and also nowadays, the Talibans have financially relied upon drugs trafficking. In 1999, 79% from the world opium crops were produced in Afghanistan. The Talibans also encouraged the domestic production of heroin. UN officials state that 95 % from the heroin that gets to Europe comes from Afghanistan. The funds resulted from drugs trade are mainly used to support terrorism. After the Taliban regime in Kabul was overthrown, as a result of starting the war in 2001, the Talibans realised that they could not hold out against a direct confrontation with the UN forces and, as they did not accept to be defeated for good, they spread among the populace, withdrew in the mountains or fled to Vaziristan, intended to regroup and to imply again in the resistance fights that were so familiar to them. Their command structures remained, in their majority, functional. New recruits are easily co-opted not only because the unemployment rate is very high, but also because the majority of the Afghans does not agree with their country to be under foreign occupation. At this moment, the Taliban fighters together with al-Qaeda members and the mudjahedins in Hezb-i-Islami often come back to Afghanistan, from the training camps in Pakistan and Vaziristan, carrying out a virulent guerrilla war that makes numerous victims among both the Afghan civilians and the Coalition Force militaries, as well as among the Afghans that cooperate with the Coalition Forces. The Coalition Forces outcomes in Afghanistan up to now are far from being satisfactory; the war in Afghanistan is in full swing and there are enough clues that force us to deduce that the state of peace is far from being achieved. The confrontation between the Coalition forces and the anti-Coalition ones (multi-coloured) ceaselessly continues. In 2006 the insecurity in Afghanistan has reached alarming levels, as diversionist and terrorist actions have continued to strike the Coalition Forces day and night, using a diversified and ingenious range of procedures. A great part of the regions in the North, Northeast and Northwest of the country are controlled by the chiefs of the regional militias who collaborate with the Talibans and the insurgents. The authority of the Central Government in Kabul is rather limited, being continually weakened by the phenomenon of corruption that is in full expansion in this country. The National Afghan Army, poorly paid, equipped and provided for cannot successfully cope with the diversionist-terrorist actions of the anti-Coalition Forces. The fact that insecurity persists at the level of the entire state is about to compromise the process of reconstruction. The chiefs of regional militias that, in their majority, cooperate with the Talibans have come to be alarmingly powerful. The anti-Coalition Forces have started to practise a wide range of threats to the civil populace, determining them not to cooperate with the forces of reconstruction and to adopt a hostile attitude towards them. If firm actions are not to be taken to counteract all the diversionist-terrorist actions of the anti-Coalition Forces – by both the firm use of force and concrete reconstruction actions that follow a well-established plan, Afghanistan may fall, in a short period of time, under the dominance of the anti-Coalition Forces and, implicitly, the one of the drugs 136 Geopolitics • Geostrategy • International Security traffickers. The persistence of state insecurity compromises the efforts of reconstruction and the integration of Afghanistan on a positive direction, towards progress and civilisation. The state of security is the determinant factor in the reconstruction of Afghanistan and it has to follow two main directions. The first and the most important one has to be related to firmly and unequivocally tackle the fight against the anti-Coalition Forces. They must be definitively eliminated, through not only direct, aggressive, intolerant combative actions, but also through trying to integrate them in the civil society – through a programme for civic reconciliation. The second direction – that parallels the first and is interdependent with it – has to tackle, at the shelter of the security climate achieved through the determined application of the first one, an ample and coherent programme for the reconstruction of civil society, that is in a state of unimaginable poverty. To help Afghanistan and to put it on the way of reconstruction, a climate of internal security and substantial funds on the part of international community are necessary. Otherwise, as they do not have “sympathy” for the “foreign benefactors” and as they are disturbed by the military occupation, the anti-Coalition Forces – these skilled and aggressive warriors – could overthrow the Pro-Coalition Government in Kabul, even without the help of the insurgents. To ensure post-war security, to make it possible for the reconstruction programmes to run and for a secure climate of stability to be created, the Coalition Forces need to have experts who can speak the language of the local people, can understand the culture, the history and the attitudes of the civilians and can make use of sufficient financial resources. Up to now, in Afghanistan – the Coalition Forces have not disposed of the necessary personnel, have not introduced the necessary troops to ensure internal security, for each Afghan citizen, and have not allocated the necessary financial resources. In other words, the post-war efforts for the pacification, reconstruction and democratisation of the country have not made satisfactory progress. The Coalition Forces have adopted a moderate attitude towards the insurgents, have contributed with only few soldiers to ensuring a climate of internal security and have not had a solid and consistent reconstruction plan. That is why, the incomes from the opium and heroine trade have become to represent nearly half of the entire economic production of the country, large sums of money getting into the hands of the anti-Coalition Forces, criminals, insurgents and regional warriors. Traffickers involved in the narcotics trade, in cooperation with some of the regional chiefs, menace to keep the country in a state of fragmentation, criminality and political instability. Given the already created situation and the fact that the Coalition Forces have adopted a moderate attitude, the Taliban insurgency can overthrow the balance of forces for their part, thus becoming progressively powerful and having more and more of the civilians support, forcing the Coalition Forces to withdraw or to massively intervene again, with significant forces and means, although they expose themselves to greater risks. For a favourable resolution of the situation in Afghanistan a long period of time, maybe tens of years, huge investments and substantial human sacrifices are necessary. 137 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 Approaching the problem pragmatically, I consider that Afghanistan is an unknown quantity in the equation of world power. I appreciate that the world is now in a period of transition towards a new multipolar order and of a continuous quest for spheres of influence and substantial natural resources – “vital oxygen bags”. These continuous search are based on the unstable equilibrium resulted from some new associations of regional powers. As in all periods of change, this process will be accompanied by a period of instability and political reorganisation in the world, of revitalisation of the competition for the domination of the vital space (oxygen bags). The contents of future international relations will probably be influenced by the apparition of certain great powers on the political scene, with different civilisations, as well as by their interaction (Europe, the USA, China, Russia, Japan and India). As a result of this situation, terrorist activity acquires an acute and unprecedented form, prefiguring multiple effects on international security in general. Terrorist acts committed by different groups represent the fight of the weak against the powerful ones, that is, in fact, the asymmetric warfare – which, in the case of Afghanistan has become reality and is a process in full swing. The terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 marked a new boundary at the crossroads of the Cold War and the one of entering an undeclared war, with an invisible and extremely violent, practising and applying the tactics of the procedure “bite and run”. This marks, in fact, the beginning of a new stage in the evolution of international relations, stage known under the name of “the war against terrorism”. In specialised literature there is a wide range of types of terrorism mentioned – political, state, social, religious, national, of common law etc. In my opinion, not only in Afghanistan but also in the countries in which the majority of the population is Muslim, in general, religious terrorism is practised. The religious terrorism practised at this moment in Afghanistan is a phenomenon that is characteristic to the asymmetric conflict, being exclusively carried out from inferior positions of force (military, political or economic). Being a very efficient tactics, it is a form of starting violence on religious grounds that promotes the superiority of the own creed to the detriment of others. Islamic fundamentalists terrorism, the one practised in Afghanistan, co-opts the Arab countries, in which the Islamic religion, the Shariah laws and the dispositions of the Quran are predominant, all belonging to the Islamic Fundamentalist Movement of Sunni orientation. In the given conditions, the terrorist activity in Afghanistan is characterised by the bigger and bigger proportions, the lack of explicit national frontiers, the existence of connections and interactions with different centres and international terrorist organisations, a rigid organisational composition formed by leading structures and operative links, informative subdivisions and of technical-material procurement, mobile fighting and covering groups, strict conspiracy and minute selection of personnel, the infiltration of agents in law and state bodies, advanced technical procurement that competes or even outranks the procurement of the governmental troops subdivisions, in vast networks and conspiring shelters, in bases and training polygons. Being a destructive and destabilising factor for the fragile Afghan sate, terrorism continues to represent a real danger for the security of this state, for the entire international security, preventing the diplomatic, economic, social and cultural relations of the Afghan state from developing naturally, leading to enormous economic, moral and political losses 138 Geopolitics • Geostrategy • International Security and exerting, at the same time, a strong psychological pressure on the masses. The type of terrorism that is practised in Afghanistan at current time is represented by professional structures capable of avoiding punishment, of carrying out genuine diversionist wars, sometimes with massive infiltration in the local and regional conflicts, attempting to take the control over certain territories rich in underground assets and important energy resources. At current time, important elements of the biggest terrorist organisation in the world – al-Qaeda – coordinated by its head and the leader, Osama bin Laden, acts efficiently on the entire territory of Afghanistan, creating panic, uncertainty and major prejudices against the Coalition Forces and the Afghan state. The attacks on September 11th, 2001 on the Twin Towers of the World Trade Centre (New York) and other five edifices are compared, by a part of specialists, to the attack on Pearl Harbour, although the number of the deceased (nearly 3000) exceeds that of the mentioned attack (2400). In my opinion, the proposed goal was absolutely similar. This attack marked the beginning of the war on terrorism, which was, in fact, the beginning of another type of international armed conflicts. This type of new warfare is nowadays experimented in Afghanistan, which has been changed into a sophisticated polygon (laboratory) for trials. The diversionist activities conducted on the territory of Afghanistan by the anti-Coalition Forces are based on the Islamic terrorism, although, through their actions, terrorists infringe the basic Islamic principles and thus they cannot be called Muslims on the territory of Afghanistan. Terrorist groups belonging to the terrorist organisation al-Qaeda attack the Coalition Forces, the State institutions (ANA, ANP) and the civil populace every day, although the Quran, the highest source of authority in Islam clearly blames terrorism, emphasising that “if anyone slew a person – unless it be for murder or for spreading mischief in the land – it would be as if he slew the whole people; and if anyone saved a life, it would be as if he saved the life of the whole people” (Quran 5:32). The Quran bans the hurting of civilians or the destruction of their possessions; we can thus easily conclude that the terrorism currently practised in Afghanistan and worldwide cannot be assimilated to the Islamic religion. Nevertheless, mention should be made that those who support and practise the al-Qaeda type of terrorism make use of the Islamic religion, interpreting the Quran in their favour and manipulating, for personal purposes, a major part of the population of Islamic religion, indoctrinating them with a view of committing acts that are extremely grave for humankind, which, in fact, contradict the Islam prescriptions. The most efficient weapon, used by Bin Laden against the Coalition Forces is the Muslim religion, interpreting the Quran and its role of a catalyst among the Muslims. “Rise to support your religion. Islam is calling on you … Muslims … your support for us will make us stronger and will further support your brothers in Afghanistan”, said Bin Laden in one of his speeches, recorded on a video cassette, broadcast, as always, by the al-Jazeera Channel in Qatar. This war is, above all, a religious one and this is the message used by Bin Laden in his attempt to convince the Muslims that it is their duty to be close to him in what is called the Christians “crusade” against the Islam. He has made a lot of references to the Quran, citing verses, as well as Mohammed, in an evident effort to appeal to the emotions, to the religion to which no Muslim can be indifferent. 139 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 Mention should be made that the Islam is today the religion of more than 600 million of faithful people, spread on all continents. Islam is one of the two non-Christian religious that have supporters all over the world. From the cultural point of view, the Islamic religion dominates the lives of most Afghans, from their birth to death. A new extremely efficient weapon used by the anti-Coalition Forces in Afghanistan is the Internet, used as a means of communication with a safe and secret character and as a modality to deliver, online, the information and manuals necessary for terrorists training. Thus, the global movement initiated by al-Qaeda has become a coordinated phenomenon, via the Internet, and the secret services proved inefficient in preventing the terrorist organisation from accessing the Internet. Al-Qaeda succeeded in building a vast virtual library that contains not only materials used to train terrorist but also forums for discussions, where experts of the organisation permanently answer the questions related to preparing poisons or building hand-made bombs. Al-Qaeda innovation, to use the Internet, causes troubles to the secret services, as it is impossible for them to strike terrorists when they are vulnerable, respectively when they move or travel. Although the Taliban Regime in Afghanistan banned the radio and television, as being modern Western innovations, the leaders of al-Qaeda organisation make full use of the Globalisation technologies. Bin Laden has been using mobile phones, video cameras, as well as computers as means of propaganda and communication with the rest of terrorist cells even since 1996. The methods used and video recordings are today delivered almost instantly to millions of supporters, via the Internet. Most of the video images reproduce the experience in the Afghan training camps. It has been discovered even a library of the al-Qaeda organisation, containing images about how to organise an assassination or kidnapping, how to build a grenade, how to attack a state, how to destroy a bridge or to launch a missile. A major part of the operations described in the training manuals kept on one of the al-Qaeda sites, Global Islamic Media Front, has been put in practice in Afghanistan. Never before has a terrorist organisation successfully combined the war in the battlefield with the electronic Jihad, changing the al-Qaeda techniques into what experts call the “future insurgency war”, in which no action remains unrecorded, and the atrocities seem to be committed especially with a view to being instantly delivered online. Some years ago, there was no such electronic empire and al-Qaeda was little known on the Internet. Today, the terrorist organisation and its leader, Bin Laden, has acquired an enormous symbolic capital, especially due to the efficiency in using the Internet to make the actions popular. In conclusion, the war in Afghanistan is an asymmetric-type war, which, in my opinion, will be waged for a long period of time. Material and human losses will be heavier after military operations are officially ended than during the campaign per se. The after-war period has become more dangerous than the war itself. The military intervention, if not accompanied by a favourable political solution, risks remaining a lost victory. 140 “The Doctrine and Training Directorate is the specialised structure of the General Staff with responsibilities for drafting military doctrines and regulations, training, standardisation and training assessment concepts, for coordinating the military education and physical training activity in the armed forces” Niculae Tabarcia was born on the 18th of November 1957. He graduated from the Military High School (1976), Antiaircraft Artillery Officers School (1979), Academy of Advanced Military Studies (1986) and the Faculty of Political and Administrative Science, The Political Science Section, the University of Bucharest (2001). He filled command and staff positions as follows: platoon commander, battery commander, instructor and lecturer at the Artillery and Anti-aircraft Missiles Department within the Antiaircraft Artillery Training Centre (1979-1984), chief of staff (first deputy of the commander) of the 1st Antiaircraft Missiles Brigade (1992-2001), commander of the 19th Antiaircraft Artillery Brigade (2001-2002), Head of the Operations Service within the Air Forces Staff (2002), commander of the 1st Surfaceto-Air Missiles Brigade (2002-2005). In 2005, he was appointed Head of the Doctrine and Training Directorate within the General Staff. He attended the Post-academic course for brigade commanders (1993), an intensive French language Interview with Brigadier Niculae TABARCIA ~ Chief of the Doctrine and Training Directorate within the General Staff ~ The statement according to which the core of an army’s being is determined by the need for militarily defending the state and by the necessity for a specific promotion of the national interests is a truism, at the level of our discussion. That is the reason why, General, I would like you to accept to engage in discussion to support those who are interested in becoming acquainted, “on the shortest path”, with the essential doctrinaire concerns regarding the forces operational state improvement through training. I believe our dialogue on this topic must be approached by taking into account, first of all, the place education holds in the military activities ensemble. In order to do that, I will turn to the conceptual frame that defines the topic of this discussion, the capability concept, respectively. The transformation elements 141 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 regarding capabilities were approached at the Washington and Prague Summits. According to this concept, the military capability represents the “ability to reach a specific objective in wartime” and includes the forces structure, equipment, response level, namely education and sustainment. If the former two and the latter one are “fix” elements, having an “organisational” nature, a “material” one respectively, education remains the sole element with an actional nature capable to develop and improve itself “on the fly”, because it is pre-eminently represented by the – intellectual and physical – capacities of the human factor, who is involved himself in the improvement process that is indispensable for achieving the most effective actional vector, namely developing the winner’s mentality. In other words, education-training results in essential changes in the most important dimension of transformation – that of mentality. In addition, the defining elements for the spiritual area, namely culture, civic spirit, patriotism are beneficially influenced by it. But, in this respect, the military body’s concerns are best defined in the Romanian Armed Forces Transformation Strategy, whose provisions aim at: adapting the entire education process to the one applied within NATO; process standardisation; becoming accustomed to operating procedures; applying operational assessment procedures and achieving a higher operational capacity of forces; carrying out the education based on modern principles, concepts and technologies; increasing the actional interoperability between own forces and the other NATO Member States armed forces; making the activity more effective. This is, therefore, the way the Romanian Armed Forces will take shape and the way it will develop a human professional component that is structured and dimensioned accordingly and that will timely provide the requirements for filling the positions belonging to the command and execution structures with well-trained personnel. In a comprehensive view of the topic, we understand that the Romanian Armed Forces Training System is based on a professionalised training process, context in which the path from idea to its materialisation is outlined by means of four core activities, namely: doctrinaire training system planning; its differentiation according to training levels, structures and forms; system implementation and accomplishment; training assessment. In this context, The Romanian Armed Forces Training Doctrine, drafted by the Doctrine and Training Directorate, has been funded on the current conflicts theory, taking into consideration the evolution of the modern battlefield physiognomy. On a different level of interest, an important spot that holds our attention is the training programmes structure, which we have drafted based on the operational requirements imposed by carrying out fighting actions. As you can see, it is well known the fact that it is impossible for fighting structures to achieve and maintain a high level of preparation for all the training requirements, reason course (1995), the Post-academic refresher course for command of the military information activities (1998), an English language course (2001), the Post-academic refresher course for Strategic Command (2001), NATO Defence College, Italy (2003), the English course for generals, Canada (2004). He is married and has one child. He can speak English and French. 142 RMT Dialogues for which we apply the principle “we train like we fight and we fight like we train” through adopting a fight mission-based training system. Because, whether we like it or not, the useful effect of the work that has been carried out in the training process is reflected, in the last analysis, in the capacity of the military structures to fulfil missions and is assessed while the exercises take place. That is the reason for which commanders and their staffs selectively identify those essential requirements to fulfil fight missions, requirements subsequently introduced in the “Mission Essential Task List – METL”, drafted so as to comprise all the activities and actions that any military structure, no matter what it is, must execute in order to fulfil the assigned fight mission. Beyond the conceptual frame described above, we are concerned with finding the best ways and methods to fulfil training standardisation as fast as possible; optimising training standards so as to acquire the best results, given the circumstances of some restrictive budgetary allocations and in a quite short period of time; improving training through the as rapid as possible implementation of new concepts such as “Mission Training Programmes” – MTP and “Mission Essential Task List” – METL; finding the most adequate means to adapt the specific normative acts to the provisions of the law package which will regulate the activity within the military field. The structure you command manages the way forces training doctrinaire fundaments are conceived, rethought of and drafted. From the perspective of these responsibilities, by emphasising the super-structural architecture of the components that shape the Armed Forces combative capacity, would you please tell us which the determinations of this process, its conceptual contents, its manifest tendencies and, in the already employed logics, the desired finalities, the projected ones are. The Doctrine and Training Directorate is the structure responsible for projecting the architecture of an efficient training system, for implementing this system and for providing it with the necessary programmes. The training system I am referring to has already been decided within the Romanian Armed Forces Training Doctrine, namely the revised version that has been in force since the beginning of the year. This document lays the foundations of accomplishing the reform in the field of training, a reform that means the organisation and development of this activity according to the principles and concepts that are specific to NATO modern armed forces. In keeping with this document, we have established a series of training priorities for the timeline 2007-2010, as follows: completing the conceptual frame regarding the collective training planning, accomplishment and assessment at the level of headquarters and that of forces; completing the draft for Mission Training Programmes and applying them in the training process; remodelling the conceptual frame regarding the individual training planning, accomplishment and assessment; remodelling the conceptual frame regarding the Romanian Armed Forces taking part in multinational exercises. 143 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 As for the priority execution, we must: implement the Romanian Armed Forces Training Doctrine provisions; fulfil the requirements of the plans for integrating through training; develop the MTP-based training process; accomplish the necessary training level of the forces meant for NATO and EU, in keeping with the standards established by the NATO and EU structures they subordinate to; increase the effectiveness of the participation in multinational exercises and in training activities, organised and carried out by NATO and EU and plan, organise and assess, with a view to certify and assert forces and headquarters. We also seek to implement the “Handbook for Drafting Mission Training Programmes”, difficult tasks devolving upon the military branches staffs and the application schools, and then, of course, upon the military structures commanders who will train themselves in accordance with these programmes. However, I believe we will be able to speak about the tangible effects of the training level starting with 2007. This document will make it possible for the concept of METL or, much simpler, the training for the assigned mission, to be put into practice. Therefore, during the following period, we will train the personnel to plan, develop and assess the training based on this concept. Another concern is drafting the “Conception regarding the training of soldiers and volunteer sergeants” and “laying the foundations” of its implementation. In this respect, we must also work to standardise the individual training. How do you define, General, in the systemic approach of the issues tackled, the place, the role, the importance and the courses of action regarding forces training in the extremely complex equation of achieving a convincing operational capability ? Operational capability is the resultant of three distinct components: the conceptual, the volitional and the physical component one. Forces training is in both the physical and moral components and represents an essential activity of the process of achieving operational capability. The result of the training activity is synthetically expressed through the quality of personnel and military structures. Forces training cannot be approached isolated, as it interplays with all the other elements that cooperate to achieve operational capability. Minimising any of these relations leads to failing to achieve objectives and might result in malfunctions in the entire military system. The role of training is manifest not only in generating forces but also in verifying, ever since peacetime, the viability of operations doctrines and the effectiveness of military equipment, the organisation of structures and the act of command. In peacetime, training is the core activity in the Armed Forces. Training provides forces that are interoperable with the ones belonging to the NATO or EU Member States armies and capable to fulfil the assigned missions. Besides, we have more than once stated that, under no circumstance, can a convincing operational capability be achieved only declaratively. Within an alliance, carrying out 144 RMT Dialogues missions must be seriously considered, especially in theatres of operations, the missions being fulfilled by perfectly correlating the abilities of those who organise and who lead the action, headquarters respectively, and direct executants, troops respectively. That is precisely the reason for which I will further approach the issue from the perspective of two elements. To begin with, I will mention a few words about headquarters training. It has been carried out especially to enhance the operational headquarters, units and big units capability in order to plan, make ready and use forces in military actions, independently or jointly, inside or outside the national territory, within certain groups of multinational forces. In this respect, one has mainly worked to improve the capacity to command the process of operationalising military structures; to develop the potential of operational headquarters, big units or units to command forces in joint military actions; to achieve the capacity to command structures in the new circumstances, created through restructuring and re-subordination, in order to fulfil the assigned missions; to provide cohesion, decision-making capacity and speed of action in order to organise military actions and to make use of forces. The Doctrine and Training Directorate has coordinated the expertise activity of the documents of headquarters exercises, with troops and training through simulation, submitted for approval by the structures subordinated to the General Staff, and the activity of drafting the training plan in concert with structures subordinate to the Ministry of Administration and Interior. At the same time, the Directorate has organised and developed conferences to plan exercises together with the structures that carry out this kind of activities, seeking to provide the activities with a joint character. The headquarters activities that we organise have approached topical issues, that are closely connected with the current political-military context and the personnel’s training needs, by laying stress on commanding, training and leading military actions in complex circumstances. The subject of the activities has taken into account Romania’s status of NATO member country and the implications it entails, as well as the necessity of training according to the specific responsibilities and missions. The lessons learnt have played an important part in the organisation and development of some of the headquarters training activities. As far as Troops Collective Training is concerned, the Romanian Armed Forces Training Doctrine coming into force has made it possible for the framework necessary for transformation in the training field to be established. At the same time, military personnel got accustomed to the architecture of the future training system, the new concepts and the programmes that are currently undergoing different stages of drafting or implementing. Starting with this training conception, our Directorate is drafting the “Order regarding the Romanian Armed Forces training between 2007-2010”, a core document which establishes the way the Romanian Armed Forces training is planned, 145 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 fulfilled and assessed, approaching this activity as being an essential part of forces generation/regeneration and employment cycle. As far as the document that super-structurally “manages” the Romanian Armed Forces training process – The Romanian Armed Forces Training Doctrine, what would the assertion fields of the document, the engaged objectives, the components of the training process and its functional nature be ? With the help of a substantial assistance on the part of the American experts group reunited within the CUBIC team, in 2003, the first “Romanian Armed Forces Training Doctrine” has been drafted and entered into force, a conceptual document that is fundamental to the reform in the field of training. The document, inspired by similar publications of the American and British forces, introduces some essential concepts for what we call a modern education, according to NATO vision, especially regarding: military education, which aims at developing student’s ability to think; participation in fighting missions, seen as a component of education, too; collective education and training standardisation. The new edition of the forces training doctrine – The Romanian Armed Forces Training Doctrine, the 2006 edition, drafted by the Training and Doctrine Directorate, is a core document stipulated in the Romanian Armed Forces Transformation Strategy, in which the general theories, principles, concepts and rules that lie at the basis of carrying out the military education activity are revealed in a modern vision, which is clearer and more concise, and reflects the official position for the approach of the activity in this field by the responsible organisms in the military system. This was drafted based on the experience the decision-making factors have accumulated since the first edition was put into application, as well as on the experience accumulated as a NATO Member State. Consequently, this document represents the authorised source or the fundament the future specific normative documents/acts will be based on, which will regulate the standardisation, planning, development and assessment of forces/personnel training. Through the new doctrine, we have intended to sustain the Romanian Armed Forces transformation process, identifying and operationalising the priority objectives that devolve upon us, namely: to substantiate and organise personnel/forces education on modern principles, concepts and technologies, which are specific to NATO and NATO Member States armed forces; to implement a new modern, active, unitary, integrated and effective way of working in the field of education; to increase interoperability between the military branches and between them and NATO Member States armed forces. In the new vision, forces education was structured on four basic components, in which each component plays its part, well defined within the framework of the training process in its whole. 146 RMT Dialogues Each component has its specific partial objectives, placed in a logic order, from theory to practice, but one can also notice they interpenetrate in the transition area. At conceptual level, the reforming process has gone further with the “Strategy of Education through Simulation in the Ministry of National Defence” and the “Conception for Training Standardisation” coming into force, as well as other very important documents that we are drafting at present, as follows: The “METL” and its Application in the Training Process; The Missions Training Programmes; The Conception regarding the Lessons Learnt in the Romanian Armed Forces; The “Graduate Model” Concept and its Application in the Military Education; The Conception of the Military Education Transformation; The Conception regarding the Soldiers and Professional Sergeants Education. We believe the latter will be one of the essential parts that will lay at the basis of the military personnel professionalisation process, considering that this category of personnel is subject to the most important changes in the field of education. In fact, the category of soldiers/professional sergeants will significantly influence non-commissioned officers’ education, too, who, according to a new idea, will almost entirely come from the category of professional sergeants. One can easily notice, especially of late, an extremely important concern for the existence of a certain forces education cycle, and also for the forces that operate in common to adopt a certain level of standardisation. Would you be kind to specify the place education holds in the general plan of the forces generating and employment cycle and, in this context, to point out the importance of standardisation in the field ? It is true, the successive unfolding of activities within each and every education component is somehow cyclical, nevertheless, presently, one does not use the concept “education cycle” but a much more complex one – “the forces generation/regeneration and employment cycle”. Just as I have mentioned before, each education component has specific objectives. The issue of standardising the activities within each component with a view to fulfilling objectives is a complex and long-lasting process, therefore the least standardised component is the military education (because it is part of the civil education, whose standardisation must be taken into account at the same time) and is completed with exercises, which are almost completely standardised, education being somewhere between the two components, with an intermediate standardisation level. During the development of this process of forces generation/regeneration and employment, an intense process of personnel institutional education and missionoriented operational training takes place, simultaneously with the efforts for basic activities standardisation. 147 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 The essential transformations within the Romanian Armed Forces are found in what we call the process of “standardisation-interoperability” with the NATO Member States military structures. Although this desideratum does not represent a novelty for us, still, given the circumstances provided by the status of “Alliance’s member”, it is approached in a new way, in a complex framework, which requires, let us say it, major investments, especially of financial nature. Its difficulty amplifies when a logic and objective requirement is not met, namely when the proposed objectives fail to comply with the necessary resources and when the need for the way of thinking and operating to be harmonised with the Western conception is not taken into account. It is what we have understood to be investment and effort in changing mentality and achieving “intellectual interoperability” with the Alliance. In this respect, the conception regarding our armed forces education has undergone great changes, which come from the security environment evolution analysis and of carrying out military actions new physiognomy. The lessons learnt following the forces taking part in different international missions, exercises, meetings and conferences in the field have represented a good opportunity for the conceptual clarification and a concerted action, with a view to achieving “the intellectual compatibility” of military personnel. General, which is, according to the competencies of the structure you are in charge of, as far as the formal manifestation and of essential contents are concerned, the decisive issues of education and how will this be accomplished from the perspective of doctrinaire “management” ? As you well know, at present, The Doctrine and Training Directorate is the specialised structure of the General Staff with responsibilities for drafting military doctrines and regulations, training, standardisation and training assessment concepts, for coordinating the military education and physical training activity in the armed forces. According to competencies, specific normative acts in keeping with the legislation in force are drafted, the harmonisation between the Armed Forces education concepts and the ones used in the NATO Member States armed forces is accomplished, the military education is more and more improved in accordance with the evolution in these fields at international level. Drafting the entire system of “reference” documents, as well as translating some NATO dictionaries and glossaries, within the structures of the Directorate, has necessitated a constant team effort, a serious documentation in domains which are many times restrictive or little exploited, and to which other structures with responsibilities in drafting specific normative acts have contributed, in the spirit of the collaboration institutionalised in the armed forces. 148 RMT Dialogues In the field of doctrines, regulations, instructions, handbooks and methodologies, tailoring the new military capabilities to meet the requirements of modern war entails the implementation of a new system of norms, procedures, regulations and standards derived from the experience and military actions carried out under NATO command. The current conceptual system, although it provides the premises for an approach that is the same with that of the Alliance, is about to be tailored and improved for all Armed Forces branches, with the purpose to develop rapid and efficient combat operations and actions in a joint and multinational framework. The new operational concepts, stipulated in the military doctrines that we draft or offer expertise for, guide us towards causing fighters to acquire the mentality of winner, as they must rapidly adapt to the real conditions of operative situations, take action independently, within national or multinational structures, inside or outside the country, depending on specific missions and particularities. Applying the new doctrines and regulations in which concepts specific to the Alliance have been included will significantly change the structure and functionality of the military body in its whole, as well as at the level of its components, will also ensure the improvement of command and the synergy of military action, and will optimise the Romanian Armed Forces capabilities. Through harmonising military documents with the Alliance’s requirements, we will cause the unitary use of the same operational concepts, therefore, the same method to reason at tactical, operative and strategic level, as our partners do. In this respect, both Romanian military theory and practice will be made compatible with the Western ones, in order to efficiently meet the requirements imposed by the nature of current and future threats, by the quality standards used in training the Romanian Armed Forces to participate in this kind of conflicts, no matter the theatre of operations and the conditions it provides (excessive climate, culture and civilisation degree etc.) and the methods and rules of engaging in order to be successful. The ceaseless effort of those who have worked to harmonise the content of specific normative acts, doctrines and military handbooks within the Directorate has been directed towards modernity and effectiveness, the selective establishment of novelty and the elimination of formalism and routine, thus paying its contribution to the change of military personnel’s mentality and the reorientation of most of its part towards the study and assimilation of what is really valuable. We reckon that the effort made for implementing the new documents will be long-lasting and will represent, and there cannot be otherwise, a ceaseless process. Is the discharged personnel training taken into account anymore ? Given the circumstances of the sound change of Romania’s security environment, of adopting a new national security strategy and, consequently, of the drastic cut of effectives and their professionalisation, the number of discharged personnel is more and more reduced. 149 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 The new situation requires for the role and the place of discharged personnel to be reconsidered, especially with regard to the system of recruiting and training it. The general trend in NATO Member States consists in using volunteer reservists. Through the Law Draft regarding the Status of Soldiers and Volunteer Reservists one aims at legislating the status of soldiers and volunteer reservists in the Romanian Armed Forces. Establishing this category of personnel can have positive effects upon recruiting and training reservists. Being directly interested in the activity in the military field, reservists will show more concern for increasing their education level. Theoretically, reservists must have the same education level with active personnel. Still, in reality, owing to the specificity of this personnel category, this situation is not encountered in any army. As far as reservists are concerned, it is essential that, in a relatively short period, through an intensive and adequate education programme, they are able to integrate and to reach the performances that are necessary to fulfil missions. Training volunteer reservists will take place differently, depending on where they come from, as follows: volunteer reservists who have not fulfilled active military service and volunteer reservists who have already fulfilled active military service, in the forms provisioned by the law. The training of volunteer reservists who have not fulfilled active military service, with a view to assimilating knowledge and developing skills, will take place during 4 months, in battalions/training centres and in units. The training of volunteer reservists who have not fulfilled active military service, after completing the 4 months of training, and of those who have fulfilled active military service will take place in generating/regenerating military units in which they are assigned at the moment of their recruitment. All volunteer reservists participate in the training 2 days a month, in their spare time, on Saturdays and Sundays, and 5 successive working days every year. The final purpose of educating reservists is the same as in the case of the active personnel – reaching the training level necessary for missions to be fulfilled. Military education – the tutelary element of the training process, its epistemological ground, practically. Would you be so kind to reveal the principles of its mission and to emphasise the concepts that define its essence, process, connections, basic structure and finalities. First of all, I want to say that your question aims at a very controversial domain, very disputed at the level of our Armed Forces central structures. Under different aspects and in very different proportions, the responsibility for the military education devolves upon the Human Resources Management Directorate, Organisation, Personnel and Mobilisation Directorate, and, last but not least, to the Doctrine and Training Directorate. To think of the military education as being a basic form of education, together with training, exercises and training under the prerogatives of the job, is not, by far, a venturesome attempt to redefine this notion, but an acknowledgement of the place it holds. Therefore, for us, education is one of the three pillars on which the architecture 150 RMT Dialogues of the training system, as we have dealt with in the Romanian Armed Forces Training Doctrine, is grounded. The Personnel staff thinks of it as being a matter of concern for human resources management. I could not explain in what way precisely, though. No matter who is right, we are aware of the fact that, if this difference of opinion persists, nobody will win. The main feature of the activity in the military education domain is represented by the fact that the process of structural and content reform of the military education continues, at the same time with the fulfilment of the military personnel formation, improvement and specialisation plan in activity or in reserve. In the military education domain, the reforming process has unfolded at conceptual level, the content of education being reconsidered so that it should respond to the current training requirements, in agreement with the evolution of structures and the requirements of the positions the graduates will fill. The syllabuses have a complex, modern content that is adjusted depending on the needs, personnel forms of training and development, as well as on its training and development levels. The Doctrine and Training Directorate has worked together with the Human Resources Management Directorate to draft “The Conception regarding the training, professional development and the use of non-commissioned officers and warrant officers in the Romanian Armed Forces” and “The Conception regarding the formation, the professional development and the use of officers in the Romanian Armed Forces”. An extremely important step has been taken through theoretically grounding the officers’ development process in an indirect way. The new conception regarding the formation, the professional development and the use of non-commissioned officers and warrant officers provides the framework for acquiring a cadre of specialists that are trained for the new missions of the Romanian Armed Forces, as armed forces of a NATO Member State. At present, through the “Conception regarding the formation, the professional development and the use of officers” the foundations of the formative higher education have been laid, which meets the requirements of the “Law regarding the organisation of higher education studies”. In order to meet the Armed Forces need to have a command and staff corps, there are many possible courses of action. Without claiming to be pioneers of outlining education systems, I can illustrate this with two classes of the kind, for training officers in a direct manner that a lot of the NATO Member States make use of. A first one would be the one that is present, through higher education, within the academies existing at the level of each branch of the armed forces, and another one in the institutions in which only the competencies that are specific to the military are formed, the officers receiving their certificate up to the rank of a major, in the civil higher education system, in distance learning centres. All these depend on option, resources and, why not, traditions. Getting back to what is being done at present, the curricula of the National Defence University, of the military academies of the military branches and of the application schools are in process of being re-examined, in order to mirror NATO strategies, 151 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 doctrines, procedures and standards, as well as to improve the training of the military and civil personnel. The purpose of this process is to embrace all NATO regulations, standards and publications that will become accessible to our country. The modification of all the regulations regarding joint training will carry on at the level of the branches of forces, to include NATO standards, doctrines, procedures and strategies. Non-commissioned officers’ training will further have priority. The number of the military and civil personnel with English language skills will be increased in order to fill positions in NATO structures at national or international level. The training of the personnel identified to fill positions at NATO Headquarters will go on. In what way does the understanding of this condition, that is prerequisite for effective armed forces – namely training and its applied state, relate to what happens in the North-Atlantic Alliance ? The process of integrating into NATO is very long and complex, especially given the circumstances in which NATO is undergoing a sound transformation, in other words, it is a moving target. As far as the field of education is concerned, we can say that we are, at the same time, lucky, because education has been considered a national responsibility, but also unlucky, since, because there is no system and there are no NATO training standards, we have nothing to relate to. What still gives us hope is the fact that the NATO transformation process also includes the accomplishment of our own education system and, consequently, we can go on with the reform, knowing where we have to get to. In the field of training, we have nothing to “recover” during integration. Still, we will take into account the “synchronisation” of actions, as the training standardisation will more and more become a reality and not a desideratum at the Alliance level. The Romanian Armed Forces Transformation Strategy pays special attention to doctrinaire problems and education. What is, on the background of the fields you manage – doctrines, military education, training, exercises, the philosophy of transformation ? The new realities that have occurred in the security environment, the need to make the structures of forces more effective, as well as the new coordinates of NATO transformation process all determine sound transformations of the doctrines and of the education process. In this context, transformation implies the improvement of doctrinaire concepts and training programmes, as well as a profound mentality change. Transformation represents a never-ending process of adaptation and rapid settlement of the problems occurred, in a dynamic, joint and multinational environment. In the field of doctrines, one has started to create the necessary framework aiming mainly at achieving a unitary thinking in the domains of the military concepts, of the operational language and of the procedures of planning and developing military 152 RMT Dialogues operations, by essentially focusing on the implementation of operational language and fighting procedures that are able to facilitate the common actions in the full range of the military operations and to reflect the requirements imposed by the evolutions of the security environment, techniques and technologies, as well as their influence on the military art. When establishing the vision regarding the transformation process in the domain of forces education, we had in view, first of all, the operational capability that should be achieved, the resources at hand and the starting education level. In order to materialise this vision, we are considering the fulfilment of some basic objectives, as follows: achieving the forces training on modern principles, concepts and technologies, specific to NATO; establishing a unitary, integrated, effective and modern way of working at the level of those who have responsibilities in the education domain; increasing the actional interoperability of own armed forces with those of the other NATO Member States; making the forces training activity more effective. Military education will cover the same modernisation stages as the Romanian education. Through the educational objectives, programmes’ organisation and structure, military education will provide both the exigencies of the military profession and the integration of their graduates in the civil life. Training, as a predominantly practical-applicative activity, will have the formation and development of individuals’ and military structures’ capacity of action as main objective, with a view to carrying out the prerogatives of their job/missions. Through training, one will achieve the fighting cohesion of the military structures, and will also develop the capacity of forces to answer and act efficiently on the battlefield. The new concepts have the role to guide the effort made for the modernisation/transformation of training and to provide the achievement of interoperability between both the military branches and those and the armed forces of the other NATO Member States. In the circumstances in which the classic training is an activity that uses al lot of resources, a particular role will be held by modelling-simulating systems. Using them will represent one of the most efficient ways of training. What are the perspectives which define the Directorate expectations ? I have mentioned before that the pillars that support the entire architecture of forces training are the military education, training, exercises and training through practice. The Romanian Armed Forces seek to form and develop a professional human component, in military and civil education establishments, structured and dimensioned accordingly, able to opportunely provide what is necessary for filling the structures of command and execution with well-trained personnel. As far as military education is concerned, in general, and the one of an officer’s development, in particular, we consider several possible courses of action: maintaining the current system and achieving an obvious structural transformation; gradually transforming the present academies 153 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 in specialised faculties within the National Defence University; maintaining the education establishments only for forming the military professional profile of officers, their higher education being completed in the civil system, under the circumstances and forms that are advantageous for the Ministry of National Defence. The modernisation of the didactic ways of organising and of the technologies will comprise, first of all, the establishment of Advanced Distributed Learning ~ ADL, an educational process facilitated by higher technologies. Since training, as a predominantly practical-applicative activity, will have the formation and development of individuals’ and military structures’ capacity of action as main objective, with a view to carrying out the prerogatives of their job/missions, we are particularly concerned with the procurement of valuable modelling-simulating systems and efficiently using them on a larger scale, because we think of them as representing one of the most efficient way of training. Still, it will not replace classic training, on the contrary, it will add to it and will enhance its range, many of its segments will develop by means of simulations, maintaining, nevertheless, a close connection of the training in the field with the reality of the fight through harmonising the theme and procedures for fulfilling exercises through simulation (SIMEX-type) with those specific to NATO. We will also be concerned, in the medium and long run, with the problems raised by exercises. These will represent a special part of training, which will be covered only by the structures having a relatively high level of training and will have the development of collective skills for the command and for actional structures as main objective. Their purpose is achieving the operational support for assessment, with a view to certifying and asserting the structures meant to NATO. Taking part in multinational exercises has as main purpose the achievement of own forces interoperability with NATO and EU Member States armed forces, the cooperation within regional initiatives, so that, when needed, our forces should be able to efficiently act in order to fulfil missions. We will also take into account the problem of training through practice, a new and specific training component, which consists in storing experience in units, by fulfilling the prerogatives of many jobs, successively, as well as in theatres of operations, by taking part in actions or filling positions at NATO Headquarters. In this respect, completing and approving the “Conception regarding the Lessons Learnt in the Romanian Armed Forces” becomes a priority, which will allow for the system and process of the lessons learnt in the Romanian Armed Forces to be implemented. I would like to mention that coordinating and monitoring the establishment of the National Education Centre, as well as enhancing the number of units participating in training within the Simulation Training Centre are among the priorities of the Doctrine and Training Directorate. The organisation and implementation of a unitary system of lessons learnt in the Romanian Armed Forces, defined as priority objectives within the Directorate, will allow, among others, for the future military activities to be made effective, for a great number of reports to be processed, as well as for the doctrines, handbooks, regulations and normative acts to be modified and updated. We are also concerned with the fact that the term for the objectives established for the formation of permanent personnel, in a direct manner (especially the officers of arms), the real, concrete requirements of the positions they will be assigned is close. 154 RMT Dialogues As far as the domain of drafting specific normative acts, military doctrines and handbooks is concerned, we want a regulated, efficient and flexible framework to operate within the military establishment, so that, in keeping with the provisions of the Romanian Armed Forces Transformation Strategy, the unity in the domains of the military concepts, the operational language and the procedures of planning and developing military operations could be achieved, with the final purpose of implementing the operational language and the fight procedures able to facilitate collective actions in the entire range of the military operations and mirror, at the same time, the requirements imposed by the evolution of the security environment, the technique and technologies, as well as their influence upon military art. In this respect, a series of priority directions for action has already been established, namely: concentrating all efforts with a view to achieving a package of unitary and coherent military publications, compatible with those of the NATO Member States; reassessing the publications existing so far, in connection with the current needs of the armed forces, the NATO adhesion objectives and the new course of action in the field; making the process of drafting the “joint” and “multinational”-type doctrines and manuals a more dynamic one, in order to provide an efficient and timely support for the structural and actional reform of the Romanian Armed Forces; embracing NATO similar publications and adapting them to the specific of the Romanian Armed Forces; initiating a new “philosophy” for approaching the process of drafting specific normative acts, military doctrines and handbooks; materialising a new system of structures involved in this process, as well as updating the content of the orders which regulate the respective process; dynamically coordinating, firmly and ceaselessly monitoring the process at all levels, simultaneously with implementing and making the feedback in the field functional; setting up and updating the databases from all echelons and coming up with solutions for generalising the experience and the special results obtained gradually, on different hierarchical levels in the field. We will also bear in mind the process of planning and developing the activities specific to the field of “headquarters training”, which must take place strictly coordinated with the specific missions of each type of forces and the implementation of operational military standards in the training activity of personnel, subunits and units from land, air and navy forces, the ones of arms and the special ones, in order to prepare and lead the joint force/operation, inside or outside the country, in the circumstances of our Armed Forces participating in missions in the NATO-led multinational structures, under UN, EU and OSCE mandate. It is very important for us that the new concepts that lie at the basis of the North-Atlantic Alliance transformation could be integrated in the future training of joint forces. At the same time, we are concerned with the conduct we should embrace in order to bring the set of traditional military norms and values, the esprit de corps and the hero and tradition cult in the Romanian Armed Forces back to the attention of the military. The conceptual domains that will be identified provide us with the possibility to take action, stressing the new ways of approach that will be developed at the level of the Doctrine and Training Directorate. Written down by Colonel Costinel PETRACHE, PhD July 26, 2006 155 T es M t R ba e THE D AIR POWER IN PARADIGM OF GLOBALISATION Guests: Air Flotilla General Victor STRÎMBEANU, PhD, Deputy Director, The Partnership Coordination Cell ~ PCC, Mons, Belgium, Colonel Florian R@PAN, PhD, Deputy Commandant of the National Defence University “Carol I”, Colonel Traian ANASTASIEI, PhD, Professor, Head (Dean) of the Faculty of Command and Staff, the National Defence University “Carol I” and Colonel Vasile BUCINSCHI, PhD, University Reader, Head of the Air and Naval Forces Department, the National Defence University “Carol I” Colonel Costinel PETRACHE, PhD: Air power. I would like you, not before explaining the meaning of power, in connection to our theme, to define the concept as such – air power and to reveal its evolution and its applied condition. Colonel Traian ANASTASIEI, PhD, Professor: In the broadest sense, power is the capacity to produce a certain outcome and, if we refer to human action (the conscious one) the outcome is anticipated, thus becoming a goal. Therefore, power is the capacity/ability to set a goal, to pursue and obtain specific outcomes in specific conditions, with specific resources, making use of specific tools, in a specific period of time. It presupposes the correct assessment of the momentary state of facts and the decryption of the tendencies of evolution to set the directions for action as well as the assessment, creation and development of the necessary resources for action. I do not want to exhaust this issue, but to emphasise the fact that it is very difficult to define the concept of power, as it is a too vast topic. Nevertheless, I would like to add that power, with the meaning of the ability to do something, the capacity to act physically and morally, must be manifest: on the one hand, to be proved and on the other hand to be perceived as such. Power does not mean a state at a given moment (or not only this), but it is also 156 RMT Debates action, the transformation of state towards a determined, desired direction. Thus, factors as technology, education, economic growth become more and more important, while the quantitative aspects and raw materials lose their importance. We will encounter both aspects that belong to nature and aspects that depend on human intervention in nature, on man’s will. These are only some directions of approaching the subject. I will insist on what is called the dominant environment in which power manifests, as a possible criterion for analysis. In this context, we can consider the terrestrial, naval, air and space environment, which are different, due to their properties and to the different ways man can accede to them. The terrestrial environment is the place where man appeared and developed, his activity being limited to land, at the beginning. Subsequently, his curiosity and inventiveness led him to water, a different environment, represented by the sea that, due to its particular characteristics, resulted in changing man’s behaviour and mode of action. Only recently, considering evolution, the man has succeeded in entering airspace, this omnipresent, periterrestrial blanket. Although air is an element that is essential for man and life in general, it was very difficult to conquer it. Once having entered this environment, it was relatively easy for man to surpass its boundaries and to get to outerspace. A brief definition becomes too simplistic and does not succeed in completely disclosing the pursued meaning. Air power refers to transferring the concept I have tried to define above to human action in air, to air mastering. To begin with, we can consider air power as being both the capacity to act in, from and through air, according to own will and to control the activity of others in the air, or even to ban it. The analysis of this definition requires some explanations, in brief. Although man had dreamt of flying for thousands of years, this dream was practically accomplished only in the 20th century when, as a result of long lasting search, he succeeded in realising the first machines that were heavier than air and helped them to take off and to realise the third space dimension, respectively the vertical one. The appearance of aircrafts led to the qualities of air power to be revealed and materialised: perspective, speed, distance, three-dimensional manoeuvre, freedom of movement, the earth surface being the only distinct frontier, the “air edge”, as it was called by Giulio Douhet, one of the foremost strategic air power theorists. Here, at the frontier of the air ocean (with land and water), there are aircrafts “nests” – airbases or aircraft carriers – where they are prepared for their future actions. Thus, aircrafts are acknowledged to depend on the terrestrial surface, their survival and operability being strictly connected to the given facilities to take off/land. Despite these restrictions, air allows for human power to be amplified, as aircrafts can reach everywhere in airspace, making practically every spot on the earth’s surface, be it above land or sea, accessible. It is the fact that the environment in and from which air power is manifest comprises, “covers”, not figuratively, the entire earth surface – land or water – that adds to its importance. Man’s utilising the Air Ocean has lead to the appearance and development 157 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 of a lot of civil (commercial) transport airlines, of networks of airports, as well as of the aircraft industry and collateral activities. Humankind and its economic development have extended in airspace, too. Colonel Vasile BUCINSCHI, PhD, University Reader: In a broad sense, I consider that power is the ability to impose one’s will on others. Along the same line, we could state that, in its turn, air power may be a form of imposing will in and from airspace. Even if air power has been manifest and has played an important part, not only in peacetime but also in case of the worldwide conflicting situations, the fundamental elements that define and govern its application are rather confusing for the majority of people and even for the military professionals. There has been a large debate on the concept of air power, which, in my opinion, emphasises the following question: Has the appearance and development of air power determined essential changes in the strategies of waging wars ? Even if there are voices saying that air power represents only the addition of a new weapon to the already existing arsenal, I consider that air power has really revolutionised warfare. If air power used to be defined as being: “the ability to do something in airspace” and it used to refer, in essence, to the capacity to carry different things from one place to another by air, it was later defined as “the ability to project the military force into the third dimension, using platforms”. In reality, I think that essential changes have occurred, not only in the effective use of aircrafts, but especially in organisation, training, command and control, elements that have determined a new doctrinaire approach. At the same time, air power (and I refer here to a state air power) includes the respective state air forces and, much more, the aircraft industry, airline companies, producers of aircraft components etc. In consequence, trying to define the term, I consider that, in its entirety, air power represents a complex amalgam of physical ingredients (technical means, aircrafts, armament systems etc.) and theoretical ones, which are equally important and mark this power efficiency and effectiveness (doctrine, the conception regarding its use, the personnel education and training, the adopted techniques, leadership, the capacity of rapid adaptation and experience). Air Flotilla General Victor STRÎMBEANU, PhD: As I find the topic of this debate very inspiring I would like to reveal the semantics of the air power concept. Surprisingly or not, the Explanatory Dictionary of the Romanian Language does not define air power. The Compact Oxford Dictionary of Current English, 1998 edition, defines air power as the “capability to defeat and attack with the help of aircrafts, rockets etc.”. More concise, Daniel Moran defines air power, in the subchapter “About Air Power” from the “Oxford Companion to Military History” as the “air force application” or, in other words, the air forces product. In time, military theorists have approached this issue from varied perspectives, from Billy Mitchell’s one – the “ability to do something in the air”, 158 RMT Debates to Admiral Radford’s more complex one – “a nation’s capacity to exploit airspace for own interest, while, at war, the enemy is forbidden this thing”. A recent definition, a comprehensive one, from the conceptual perspective, was that given by Philip Towle in “The Dynamics of Air Power”, 1996: the “use or ban on the use of airspace or extraterrestrial space for military purposes by the vehicles capable of controlled and sustained flight beyond the area of immediate conflict”. This definition is worth our attention from two points of view: firstly, it extends the domain of air power beyond the limits of airspace as such, creating the premises for its developing into a space power. Secondly, this definition includes rockets as (“vehicles capable of controlled and sustained flight beyond the area of immediate conflict”), which is particularly important from the national and global security perspective. Air power should be no way mistaken for air forces, the latter being the tool whose use leads to creating air potential. The importance of air power at war, as well as at peace, has been continually increasing, from its initial status of a contributor to the operations of other categories of armed forces to that of a force nearly able to win a war by itself, as it was proved in the Gulf War. Nevertheless, the development of an argumentation referring to the importance of air power compared to the land and naval analogous ones has no relevance in this context. What is really worth mentioning is the fact that the dependence on doctrine and, implicitly, on political issues is much more evident in case of air power than in the one of air forces. Air power can have an exclusively offensive orientation, due to the role of the air means anticipated by Giulio Douhet in 1985, as offensive weapons par excellence, due to its independence from the limits of surface and superior speed; it can also have a defensive character, the character of a discouraging force, or it can be applied to support other categories of forces (which does not necessarily mean that it is less dangerous for the enemy; on the contrary, when correctly applied, it is essential for the progress of war). Further on, by developing its recent capabilities (ballistic intercontinental missiles), air power has already evolved into an airspace power, changing, this time, tactics, operative mastery and strategy, but also geopolitics, in ensemble, by shifting the belligerent areal into space. To the extent to which a country is able to rapidly convert its civil air means or a part of them, or to redirect its civil air means production capabilities to the production of air means for military use, one can speak about a “civil” air power component. Colonel Florian RÂPAN, PhD, Professor: To complement the already expressed opinions and to refer to Romania’s strategic conduct, I appreciate that air power represents the Romanian state capacity, expressed mainly in the military domain, to impose, by force and discouragement, the directive lines of the state in the domain of air sovereignty, in peacetime, in crisis situations or in wartime. In other words, 159 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 air power is one of the most important components of Romania’s military power and supposes, in principal, the creation and development of air forces, capable to operate both in the national air space and in a crisis/armed conflict area, to discourage, limit or ban the aggressor from using the respective space. According to the Doctrine of the Romanian Air Forces, air power can be expressed in its conceptual, operational, technical-scientific and psycho-moral components. As the level of power determines, in the context of the discussed issue, the level of sovereignty, it is evident that there is a whole-part relationship between national and air sovereignty. Air sovereignty cannot exist outside national sovereignty, through the unity and indivisibility of the territory it refers to. Any damage to air sovereignty affects national sovereignty. As well, any damage to other domains of national sovereignty manifestation implicitly gets to affect, under one form or the other, air sovereignty. Colonel Costinel PETRACHE, PhD: Air power – airspace, an indestructible binomial when we speak about air power. What is the airspace ? What is the national airspace ? Air Flotilla General Victor STRÎMBEANU, PhD: Indeed, an indestructible binomial by definition: neither term can exist without the other. Air power cannot be exercised but in airspace; the national airspace cannot exist without an air power that defines or “guarantees” it. According to the Webster “New World Dictionary”, the national airspace is “the space above a nation, over which it can claim jurisdiction”. In conformity with the Manual FA-3.1, referring to the operational air traffic control, the national airspace represents “the air column that rises above the ground and the aquatic space, being laterally delimited by the terrestrial, fluvial and maritime frontiers, established by law, and upright to the inferior limit of the extra-atmospheric space”. More concrete, the concept as such expresses the space in which aircrafts operate, from the sea/ground level to practically the ceiling of the aircrafts belonging to the respective air forces; juridical, the national airspace is the airspace above the national territory/territorial waters. Airspace is divided into classes, vertically and horizontally, depending on several criteria and each nation has its own rules, more or less common, according to which airspace is administrated, which constitute in a “regime of flight in airspace”, regime imposed, in its turn, by the respective country air power; nevertheless all these have the same denominator – the rules of ICAO/International Civil Aviation Organisation. The force of the binomial we are referring to resides in the respective country capability to impose, by force, if necessary, that the regime established by the use of this space should be obeyed. 160 RMT Debates Colonel Traian ANASTASIEI, PhD, Professor: Indeed, it is very important to speak about airspace – the place where and in connection with which air power is manifest. The term airspace generally represents the periterrestrial cover, the air blanket above the ground and water surface, without being very exactly delimited upright, because of the physical properties of the gas that it is made out of. I mention the fact that, at the beginning, in specialised literature, the thesis according to which airspace stretches up to the infinite was dominant. Subsequent to the development of aeronautics and aero-navigation, the issue of its juridical regulation is raised. Thus, today, it is identified: the airspace belonging to states, a component of the state territory and the air space with international regime, that is not subjected to any state sovereignty (for example that above the free sea). The Paris Convention, on October 13, 1919 consecrates and regulates the subjacent states sovereignty on the national airspace. Although the airspace superior delimitation is no longer discussed about, it has been advanced the idea according to which this frontier should be established following certain criteria, more or less conventional. Some of them refer to the air physical properties – density, composition etc. –, while others refer to the aircrafts capacity to attain a certain height … We notice that it is very difficult to exactly establish this border, as the mentioned criteria vary in time. Juridical literature offers an ambiguous, tautological answer: “the superior limit of airspace is where airspace begins” (sic !). Today, through bi- or multilateral conventions, although not unanimous, the superior limit of airspace is considered to be somewhere at 100 or 150 km above the earth surface. We consider, in this context, that the most important thing is for a country to be able to exercise its sovereignty in own space, or, today, there are only few countries able to control their space up to the above mentioned height … Based on a state sovereignty over its own airspace, it – the state – regulates the juridical regime of the respective space, carries out different activities within it, and may give foreign aircrafts the right of freedom of transit and traffic through its airspace, too. It may also limit the liberty to fly in its airspace or to ban certain foreign aircrafts from entering this space, may execute jurisdiction on foreign aircrafts when they are in its airspace, if there is no other special regulation and it has the right of indemnification for damages caused by foreign aircrafts. Besides the regulations included in the airspace juridical status, states have ratified a series of documents regarding the international air navigation. We mention, in this context, the five “air liberties”, which refer to the right of flying over a particular territory, as well as to some liberties regarding landing and transportation by air. Although we are talking about globalisation, I have to pinpoint the fact that not all states recognise the five air liberties integrally, as they are complex and have multiple implications at international level. At the same time, we also witness a clear process of harmonisation in the field of the regulations regarding aeronautical activities. 161 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 Colonel Florian RÂPAN, PhD, Professor: The last two decades have changed the conflict areas by their diffusing in other areas than the ones “traditionally” recognised to belong to the “conflict arch” or “conflict belt”. Although the majority of local conflicts has unfolded within the national space (80%), conflicts that unfold in the extranational space or in contagious areas have not been eliminated. Superpowers tendency to promote their interests by using military force far from the “sanctuaries” is evident. Another tendency is to search for allies (for military or only diplomatic support) and, this way, to “globalise”– militarily – the conflict. From this perspective, modern air forces will continue their efforts to plan actions in maximum safety conditions. It supposes an increase in the safety of actions by technical, tactical and political methods. The creation of hostile airspace and the opponent isolation (air blockade) will be accomplished by means of agreements or under military pressure. The interests in airspace will be promoted through the creation, in peacetime, of what we use to call the preventive controlled airspace. It supposes to permanently maintain air control, to deploy strike forces in the area, to introduce a system of penalties and to get some international bodies or institutions involved. With regard to the national airspace (territory), I highlight the fact that it integrally belongs to the state territory and it is inviolable, as all the other parts of the state territory. Consequently, the Romanian state regulates the regime of the airspace that belongs to it, the role of international conventions being that of coordinating different juridical regimes and of establishing rules that allow for a better international cooperation. Colonel Vasile BUCINSCHI, PhD, University Reader: Airspace is for sure indispensable for the air power application. The indissoluble connection between them is evident but I would like to specify some things, which seem necessary in the context of our debate. Airspace is the environment in and from which air power can be applied. It represents, as it has been mentioned before, and I repeat it, as it is a defining thing, the air column that rises above the terrestrial and maritime territories and, in national context, the airspace above the territory of state sovereignty towards the inferior limit of the extra-atmospheric space, being an integrant part of the state territory. The effects of air power surpass though the physical limits of airspace. Subsequently, the application of air power has effects not only in airspace but also in physical spaces – terrestrial and maritime – and in economic, diplomatic and informational “spaces”. In consequence, air power is, indeed, strictly connected to its environment – airspace, while its effects are manifest far beyond it and I consider, from this point of view, that an analysis of the air power effects is much more important than – strictly – the environment in which it manifests. 162 RMT Debates Colonel Costinel PETRACHE, PhD: I would like you to refer to air power in the ensemble of the power that defines, expresses and materialises a state defensive capabilities and, if it is appropriate in this context, let me think it is, to see what the components of air power are. Colonel Florian RÂPAN, PhD, Professor: Air power must be understood as potential (the abstract side) and as force (the material side), which presupposes that its development directions have, on the one hand, an abstract organisational content and, on the other hand, a material content (in terms of the physical resources air power comprises). Air power is mainly determined, and I refer to the Romanian state, by the following factors: the weight of the Romanian Air Forces effectives within the country’s Armed Forces; the Air Forces actional potential, expressed by the quantity of fight means and the scientific, technical, industrial and financial capabilities the state provides these forces with; performances of the means (arms, systems, logistics) meant for the Air Forces, expressed in availability and fight capabilities. Colonel Vasile BUCINSCHI, PhD, University Reader: Sovereignty, as a general concept, in strict connection with a state defence capability, supposes territorial integrity, independence and national unity, free access to humanity common values, free expression in international relations and, at the same time, the authority to decide on the course of action to promote and defend national interests. In this context, national sovereignty is related to the notion of national territory, in which airspace takes an important part. Therefore, air security is part of national security and expresses the particular airspace condition that allows for unrestricted exercise of state prerogatives. Among the powers that define, express and materialise a state capability to defence, air power, as a concept, is the state potential, mainly from the military point of view, that can be used directly or by means of an alliance, to impose its will in the field of air sovereignty, in peacetime, crisis situations or at war. From this perspective, air power has many components that are categorically inter-conditioned and interdependent. The conceptual component is represented by a complex process of thinking, reflected in the strategies, doctrines and regulations in the domain of air forces. It governs the activities in airspace, the air forces leadership and logistics and is based on the lessons learnt from not only own experience but also the modern armies ones. The operational component emphasises the operational structures within air forces, with all the systems, equipments, infrastructure and logistics, in connection with the necessary means for achieving the tasks they have been made for. The scientific-technical and economic component expresses the general level of development and the potential of the scientific, technical, 163 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 industrial and financial capabilities that are necessary to air forces. The psychological-moral and professional component highlights the moral, social and professional values of the air forces personnel. Air power is the one that can rapidly provide a wide range of military options that can lead to the national interests safeguarding. Air Flotilla General Victor STRÎMBEANU, PhD: A state defence capability is given by the national security system that has, in its turn, many components. Within it, military power is essential and it depends, in its turn, on many other factors (economical, political, demographic etc.) and within the military power, the air power has an extremely important role. The air power components are given, from the military perspective, by the components of the air forces that generate the respective air power, more exactly: air-to-air (Air Fighter or multi-role); air-to-ground (Air Fighter-Striker or multi-role, fight helicopters); airlift (airplanes or helicopters transport); surface-to-air (air defence means based on ground); airspace control (radar, radio). Colonel Traian ANASTASIEI, PhD, Professor: In addition to what has been already mentioned, I would like to pinpoint the fact that a state power is given, among others, by: size, geographical location, climate, resources (human, materiel, energy, cultural), the armed forces level of training and procurement, system of government etc. Without any intention to extend the debate, I attract the attention that these aspects have to be taken into consideration when speaking about defence and security, in general, and many levels are referred to, while defining and materialise them. A state power comprises many components and, among them, the air power has a distinct role as it refers, in our opinion, to the totality of civil aviation forces and means, to its specific infrastructure as well as to the totality of forces and terrestrial means (even the cosmic ones, if necessary) meant to protect air navigation. All plants that have an aeronautical profile can be considered here. We could say that air power refers to the capabilities that allow for the state to manifest its sovereignty in the national air space, all the factors that ensure the progress of the activities in the air, in appropriate conditions. The airspace and the ground (water) facilities destined to aeronautical activities have been integrated in the system of human activities since the development of aviation, leaving its mark on the evolution of society. At the same time, the air ocean has become the arena of some terrible and subtle confrontations during armed conflicts, to resolve military and other disputes (economical, political etc.). With reference to the military component, some air power essential elements become evident: airspace and aircrafts, air capabilities and the specific characteristics of air actions. 164 RMT Debates Air power is determined by many factors and I would like to mention the economic and political ones, which provide the resources and will. I leave a special place for aeronautical awareness, as it is a source of air power that can be found at the level of all its components, which it empowers. Science and research in the field, education in the field, specific infrastructure, air operators and the systems meant for the safety of air navigation are some other directions in which air power is manifest. The affiliation to the international bodies meant to control aeronautical activities (ICAO, EUROCONTROL, NATINEADS) represents, in my opinion, another source of air power. Colonel Florian RÂPAN, PhD, Professor: In the logic approached by Colonel Anastasiei, I would point out some facts regarding the characteristics of aviation actions. Thus, aviation actions constitute a component of modern warfare. They are determined by the characteristics of aircrafts and other means that have to be adapted, according to technological development. Aviation can engage fight with the opponent and act, in general, in a more extended area than the one that is habitual for land troops and thus endanger the entire warfare potential. This way, due to the aviation actions, the enemy is forbidden to carry out the fight where he wants to and he is also forbidden to spare his means and forces. Therefore, the state has to pay special importance to the air power that it can exercise only if it has an available aviation that can meet, quantitatively and qualitatively, the appropriate place, role and assigned missions. Air power is, from this point of view, a capability that ensures the use of airspace according to own will and bans or limits its use by the aggressor. The multitude of the possibilities to use aviation allows for military leadership to adapt the air actions (operations) dimension and intensity to the political and actual military requirements. The actions carried out in/through/from air are very specific and only specialised forces – air forces are able to carry them. The characteristics and the possibilities to use aircrafts make avoiding their action effects impossible. The resulted risk potential requires the same type (level) response measures, so air power can be counterbalanced by air power only. The states that do not have their own air power will be, in case of conflict, not necessarily an armed one, in totally disadvantaged situations. The existence of an appropriate air power allows for a mobile defence fight at and from all heights, from the very beginning. At the same time, it makes possible for the armament efficiency in all domains to be completed and for a unitary command of all systems of armaments to exist. Air forces, especially aviation, allows for the one that owns them to adopt a combative, offensive attitude, that results in the impossibility 165 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 for an enemy that has a weak or inactive air force to win the initiative at strategic level and in the enemy forces overusing in the depth of the disposition, without being able to properly riposte. The offensive use of air power can, through the correct choice of the objective to be struck and the effect of the armament, to exercise a decisive influence on the intentions of a possible aggressor. This way, air power becomes the key element to dominate a political conflict and to discourage the enemy. The opponent being banned from using all the dimensions of the own space is a strategic advantage for the one that owns and uses air power. At the same time, though, an opponent corresponding air power may compensate this theoretical advantage by surveillance at all heights and in all domains, by securing the own territory against air attackers, by conquering and maintaining the freedom of action, by preventing the enemy forces from penetrating and, through this, may gain time to successfully carry out the operations of own land forces. Colonel Costinel PETRACHE, PhD: What are the place and the role of the air forces in the manifest equation of air power ? What are the air forces in the context of air power ? Colonel Vasile BUCINSCHI, PhD, University Reader: As I have already underlined, in my opinion, air power means more than air forces. Though, in case we refer to the actual actional spectrum of air power, then, evidently we speak about the air force, which is, in fact, the objective vector that supports air power and puts it in a concrete form. It is clear that the appearance of aircrafts marked the appearance of a new dominant and decisive element in modern warfare. Air forces offer a unique capability, that of exploiting the third dimension. Their role is important in peacetime, when, due to the actional capabilities (command and control, aircrafts with different functions, ground based air defence systems, radars, communication and air navigation systems, support equipments, due infrastructure and logistics, personnel etc.), they succeed in controlling the national air space and in discouraging possible threats, thanks to their capacity of reaction. In conflict situations, air forces really demonstrate what the air power, in its pragmatic and concrete form, means and render evident the power of the air power components synergy, which I have mentioned before under the conceptual, operational, scientific-technical, economic, psycho-moral and professional aspects. Air Flotilla General Victor STRÎMBEANU, PhD: I resort to a truism but, paradoxically, I do it in order to consolidate the understanding as such of the specified relation. Air power does not exist without air forces, because they are the air power generator. Thus, it is defining air forces we have to pay attention to in order to understand their role and relation with air power. As for the air forces, the Explanatory Dictionary of the Romanian Language defines only the concept of military force, and not the one of air forces. 166 RMT Debates The Concise English Dictionary, edited by Oxford, defines the air forces as “a branch of the armed forces with reference to air fight and defence”. Besides this strictly semantic meaning, a professional dimension is added by the Oxford Military History Dictionary, where they are conceptually assimilated to “an instrument by means of which air power is applied”. It is almost unanimously accepted the idea that air forces include, on the one hand, the technical factor, meaning the vectors – aircrafts and their cargo (munitions, air-to-air or air-to-surface/water missiles, bombs, different container etc.) and all the other technical means that are necessary to facilities, maintenance, logistic support or use in fight, and, on the other hand, the human factor, meaning pilots, navigators, radar operators, air traffic controllers, technical experts, staff officers and logistic personnel, civilians included. Air forces have developed as an independent branch since the end of the First World War. Some important moments in the history of the Romanian Armed Forces are the following: 1983 – the establishment of the first subunit of military air station, the establishment of the Pilot Schools in Chitila – 1909, Cotroceni – 1911, transformed, in 1912, in the Military Pilot School and especially April 1st, 1913, when it was voted the law that lay “the foundation of establishing and organising military aeronautics as an independent armed force, subjected to the engineer corps headquarters”. Nevertheless, it took a long tome until the creation of the air forces, as we understand them today, and until they were recognised as a category of forces. Paradoxically, although the British launched in the conquest of air later, they were the first who had their independent military air forces – the Royal Air Forces, under the command of Sir Hugh Trenchard, on April 1st, 1918. Soon after, the armies belonging to other states separated out their air forces and they thus became an independent category of armed forces. The concrete organisation of forces may differ from country to country, or from an aircraft generation to another. (In this context, the concept generation refers to categories, types and versions of aircrafts that have common characteristics). Air forces can be tailored to be aggressive/ offensive (focus on fight-strike, assault, close air support, interdiction etc.) or defensive (focus on fight and air defence). It is important to keep in mind, to better understand the concept as such, that these features are dictated, through the related doctrines, by the political orientation of the state or, if it is the case, by the political-military bloc they belong to. Parts of the air forces may be included, temporarily or permanently, into the other two categories of armed forces (land and maritime), but this is not relevant to the topic of our discussion. A particular case is represented by the aircrafts on plane carriers, on the one hand, because of their belonging (most frequently they belong to the naval forces) and on the other hand, more important, from the perspective of the national and global security, as these aircrafts, although they are mere tactical or operative as far as their range is concerned, can be taken to any part of the world by the respective carriers. Thus, they become genuine strategic weapons, having a significant impact on regional or even global security. 167 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 Another particular case is that of strategic bombers and missiles (medium and large range), which are of great importance for the national and global security, importance generated, this time, by their destructive potential, especially of those used as nuclear vectors. A last comment on this concept, as it has already been dealt with in the mentioned definitions and some additional comments, leads to the conclusion that there is a strong connection between air forces and air power, but under no circumstances should they be mistaken one for the other. Colonel Florian RÂPAN, PhD, Professor: I think the place and the role of the air forces in the manifest context of the air power is denoted, in the last instance, by the air forces real operational capacity, expressed by the headquarters, operational structures, big units and units possibilities to fulfil the missions they have been conceived for and that have been assigned to them; the personnel level of training, defined by the level of professionalisation, multifunctional abilities and the capacity of generating and regenerating. Another form of manifestation of the Air Forces role is represented by the usage strategies materialised in structures, missions, deployment, tactics, procedures and rules of employment; armed forces categories and other components of the system capacity to integrate in order to reject the illicit actions that damage air sovereignty; national institutions and forces capacity to integrate in order to promote (safeguard) Romania’s air interest and sovereignty, in agreement with other states or within military alliances, expressed in the degree of interoperability and compatibility. Colonel Traian ANASTASIEI, PhD, Professor: Starting from the fact that military aviation, air forces, in general, are more and more present in limited actions in different areas in the world, military experts are more and more preoccupied with analysing the way in which air power can be efficiently used to persuade the opponent to make an agreement without a conflict escalation. Therefore, some aspects that do not belong to the military sphere, but to the political one emerge, depending on the way and the moment air power is used to influence the opponent. The Coalition success in the Gulf War (1990-1991) was possible, unquestionably, due to air forces. The air forces place, role and action in this war could, at first sight, lead to the conclusion that this is the action-model to be followed in all future wars. It is true that the offensive attitude and the use of advanced technologies led to what was often called a future model but authorised voices attract the attention towards the fact that there were completely special conditions in the Gulf, so the “model” is an atypical one. We agree to it, as it is quite improbable for the ensemble of conditions that led to the situation of using preponderantly unconventional weapons in an air fight in which the opponent uses up-to-date technology, in the conditions of quasi air supremacy, to be created again. Asymmetry is evident … 168 RMT Debates Air power, as well as the aircraft as such, is like a child of scientific progress: it cannot exist without advanced technology and borrows from it the fascination and mystery of a special, unknown and … desired thing. As a result, both producers of specific technology and supporters of air power (defined as the “capacity to use air platforms for military purposes”) want more and more funds that are everywhere and always bigger than the allotted budgets. Air forces represent a way to interact with the opponent without having a physical contact with him, to strike him powerfully, rapidly and from distance, which determines us to give the notion “contact line” a second interpretation. The classical “front line” has disappeared, the enemy being now deeply struck, tens or hundreds kilometres far. Confrontations take place in airspace and in the electromagnetic environment, so that the entire area of military actions becomes an area of physical contact, aviation being the protagonist of this actional model (launching a destructive force against the opponent, without having a direct contact). “The air power objective in wide-spread conflicts, and not only, is to destroy the opponent will or/and his capability to resist”. In modern warfare, what is more and more important is the way to act, the way to win the confrontation and their impact on the public, which tends to be primordial in the stage of conflict outcomes. This aspect, relatively new in the history of warfare, has become significantly important after the First World War, once the law of war was stated and military actions extended spatially due to the fact their air component was confirmed. As it was proved by the Vietnam and the Gulf wars, it is necessary to consider the internal political impact (and the external one, to the extent to which it affects internal interests) determined by the way the conflict is approached and to calculate (qualitatively and quantitatively) the adequate force that is to be used. Moreover, we think that, in the contemporary conditions (in the era of nuclear, chemical, biological and cosmic warfare) this force will always be smaller than the potential one. We could thus speak about an “actional sufficiency”, as an escalation in conflict has a direct destructive character (material and human losses on the part of the opponent combat forces and its country and, to a certain extent, on the part of own forces) but also indirect ones, through the way the losses are perceived at internal and external level. We come to understand that it is not always easy to decrypt what the political interests of the decisional factors involved in military conflicts are and, moreover, that, many times, these factors are not exactly known, as they are often hidden, leaving history to, sooner or later, unveil the truth. In specialised literature, it is stated that “the British riposte in case of Argentina occupying the Falkland Islands was a disproportionate escalation of a crisis for internal political purposes”, and the Western political-military analysts mention that “almost always escalation is an advantage on the part of the weak party in a conflict if it attracts the international attention towards the conflict or adds complications to the political scene”. Synthesising, we could say that the air forces is an instrument for the political factor of power, being placed at the confluence of the military power and the air power. 169 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 Colonel Costinel PETRACHE, PhD: The air power and the military power – what is the relationship between them and what are the interdependencies that structure this relationship ? Colonel Florian RÂPAN, PhD, Professor: In my opinion, the relationship is very clear. Air power is a component of the military power and is dependent on not only the military power but also on the representative state institutions that have attributions in the security and national defence domains. In the presentation of the air power responsibilities, its role and place within the military power are clearly evident. Therefore, in peacetime, air power ensures, at domestic level, the forces training, airspace integrity and timely alarm, in case of an air attack, and at international level, air discouragement, trust between states, security enforcement, armament control, cooperation and capacity to participate in peace-support missions. In crisis situations, air power accomplishes surveillance and search, offers the options of response to crisis, ensures the availability of the necessary air potential and balance, integrates the defence objectives according to the crisis character and intensity and, finally, in wartime, air power has to ensure survival after the first strikes, to preserve the offensive and defensive air potential, to launch air counter-strike, to achieve war objectives and to restore air sovereignty. Air flotilla General Victor STRÎMBEANU, PhD: Before trying to answer, we have to mention that: air power must be approached in relation with land and naval powers, as, if we approached it in relation with the military power, it would mean putting air power in a partial relation with itself (!), as air power is an important component of the military power. The relationship between air power and its equivalent land, respectively naval powers is a complex and dynamic one and has continually developed as far as its weight and spreading are concerned, from the stage of taking part in land/naval operations with simple surveillance missions to the one of winning a war by itself, as it is the case of the Gulf War, which has already been mentioned. Nevertheless, at the current moment, as well as in the near future, it is quite improbable for the set of favourable conditions the air power benefited from in the above-mentioned war to repeat. Future wars will be determined by the joint effort; within this effort, the weight of air power, otherwise difficult to quantify, is essential, either as a participant in the land/naval operations or through air operations as such. It is important for the synergism of the three categories of forces to be accomplished, and to it, air power has a decisive role. In its absence, the other two categories do not have any chance to succeed or the price of the operation is unacceptable. On the other hand, we have to keep in mind the fact that air power rapidly evolves towards an airspace power; the strategic objectives of future wars will not be terrestrial points of interest but special ones (geostationary orbits, libration points “Lagrange” etc.). 170 RMT Debates Colonel Traian ANASTASIEI, PhD, Professor: Air power is, in my opinion, the manifestation of state power in the air environment and includes the mentioned factors of influence and, I feel bound to emphasise, the majority of them has a “non-military” nature. Consequently, the air power and the military power have both common and specific elements, the problem of their interdependencies being the result of their study. To simplify, I could say that the connection between the military and the air power is represented by air forces and their action. As it results from the things mentioned above, air power, in its military component, is the capacity of the owner to ensure the use of air space according to his will and to limit or ban the others from using it. The multitude of opportunities regarding its use allows for the military command to adapt the air actions (operations) dimensions and intensity to the concrete political and military requirements. Because the actions carried out in/through and from air are specific ones they can be carried out by skilled forces only – the air forces. Aircrafts characteristics and possibilities to use make it impossible to escape from their actions effects. The resulted risk potential requires for the same type (level) response measures, so air power can be counterbalanced by air power only. The states that do not have their own air power will be, in case of a conflict, not necessarily armed, in totally disadvantageous situations. The existence of an adequate air power makes a mobile defence fight, at all heights possible, from the very beginning. At the same time, it makes possible for the efficiency of the armament in all domains to be complemented and for the armament systems to have a unitary command. Air forces, aviation especially, allows for the owner to adopt a combative, offensive attitude, which prevents an opponent that would have a weak or inactive air force from winning the initiative at strategic level and causes him to wear the forces out in the entire depth of his disposition, without being able to riposte accordingly. The offensive use of air power can, through the correct choice of the target to strike and the special effect of the armament, exercise a decisive influence on a possible aggressor. This is the reason that makes air power the key element regarding the domination of a military conflict and the enemy discouragement. We have to notice once more the existent complex relationships and the created interdependencies between different aspects of power. Thus, a civil air fleet, even if it is not an element of military power, can contribute, through the force projection, to its enhancing potential in a theatre of actions. On the other hand, a military aircraft can be a vital element of the air navigation protection system, for civil aircrafts included. Colonel Vasile BUCINSCHI, PhD, University Reader: Winston Churchill says air power is the most difficult form to measure military force or, at least, to express in exact terms. Indeed, the extent to which air power contributes to the military power 171 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 application is difficult to exactly quantify. It is therefore sure that, in current times, air power represents the main component of military power that, in case of a conflict, may “tip the scale” to one party or another. Air power, represented by air forces in the context of military power we are talking about, is the only force that proves really efficient, especially in achieving objectives that have a strategic value. Due to certain unique characteristics of air forces, in general, and aviation, in particular, operational component (rapidity, range, firepower, precision etc.), the ways of operating it are fundamentally different compared to other forms of the military power application, as far as not only the methods and procedures used but especially the achievement of effectiveness and efficiency regarding the set tasks are concerned. Acting in the third dimension, air power may directly affect the opponent centres of gravity. At the same time, the capacity to win and maintain air superiority ensures the own military surface structures freedom of action, banning the opponent from doing the same thing as well. Colonel Costinel PETRACHE, PhD: Coming back to the particular issue of national military construction, would you be so kind to place the Romanian Air Forces in the Romanian state power formulae ? Colonel Vasile BUCINSCHI, PhD, University Reader: To be able to approach this issue from the national military construction perspective, given the extremely important role of the military power in the national security equation, I consider it necessary to exactly understand the security strategy at national level. From this perspective, the national strategy combines diplomatic, economic, military and informational instruments. In the same context, the military strategy combines different components of the military force (air, naval, land, informational) to achieve the derived military objectives. The military national construction is strictly connected to the achievement of the military objectives. Within the framework of the efforts to consolidate the capabilities to response to the new threats, Romania, as a NATO member, USA ally and future EU member, has to reconfigure its military power, in general, and its air power, in particular, so that it could be capable to meet challenges. The integration of the land, air, naval operations and the intelligence ones is a desideratum of the Romanian military construction at the current moment. Nevertheless, it is true that air forces represent an elite category of the Romanian Armed Forces, and the military construction, not only at national level but also from the alliances perspective, cannot be accomplished without taking them into consideration. To the same effect, air forces reconfiguring 172 RMT Debates has to be tailored so that it could meet the objective necessity to achieve the goals of the new types of operations, in peacetime, crisis situations and at war, not only at national level but also within alliances. Air Flotilla General Victor STRÎMBEANU, PhD: The Romanian Air Forces have had an important role in the Romanian state power formula in the latest century. Between the two World Wars, Romania was a regional air power and a small European air power at the same time. Today, the Romanian Air Forces, having undergone a process of transformation for the latest 16 years, are, quantitatively, situated at 1/3 from the 1989 level, although, qualitatively, they are significantly more capable, in other words, they can generate an air power of some times bigger than the 1989 level. Practically, almost the full spectrum of missions can be accomplished, independently or within the Alliance. The Romanian state is able to maintain fundamental values in case of a conflict with a comparable adversary, relying on its current air forces, but, in case of a confrontation with an adversary that has a superior military potential, maintaining or regaining fundamental values is possible only if the “alliance effect” is accomplished. The weight of the Romanian Air Forces in the context of the armed forces is nonetheless debatable, in my opinion: under 14%, which does not totally comply with the current tendencies, with their increasing role and with the need for air power, in fact, for air security. The effects of an inappropriate ratio will reflect, in case of an armed conflict, directly on the other categories of forces and indirectly but implicitly on the entire nation. Colonel Florian RÂPAN, PhD, Professor: Very briefly, we can state that the Romanian Armed Forces represent the category of the Armed Forces designated to participate in defending air sovereignty, integrating in operations, air offensive and defensive operations (actions) the entire air riposte and reaction potential and the neutralisation (diminution) of the aggressor economic and military power, available within the national defence system. We think this definition highlights the Air Forces coordinating role on all the other forces specialised in air defence and, through this, their central place within the country air power. Moreover, it suggests that the participation in defending the country air sovereignty is a broader process, as well as the general actional forms – air operations and actions. Colonel Traian ANASTASIEI, PhD, Professor: With regard to this issue, I would like to pinpoint two aspects as far as air forces are concerned. The first one refers to air forces as those elements that act in/from and through air with a view to achieving 173 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 tasks that are specific to military actions carried out in and through this environment. I, therefore, include in the air forces the radar, as a means of air search, aviation as a flying platform, as well as surface-to-air means of action against aircrafts (artillery, missiles, radio-electronic means). The second aspect has in view the armed forces organisation in categories of forces and we thus have the Air Forces as a core element in the structure of a state military forces. I mention that the majority of countries has, in the structure of their armed forces, the air forces as a distinct category of forces. At the same time, though, there are in many armed forces, the Romanian Armed Forces included, means and forces, belonging to other categories of forces (land and naval ones), capable of carrying out actions in the air environment. Of course, the destination and the missions in the two types of situations are different. If, in case of Air Forces, they refer to state sovereignty within the national airspace and to the application of its will in the air space of interest, in case of the structures belonging to the other categories of forces, the missions are restricted to their direct, immediate and exclusive support. Thus, the role of the Air Forces in the state equation of power is evident. Having understood it, we will accept that, under a certain aspect – that of leading and coordinating the activities carried out in the national airspace, the Air Forces have to get the main role, ensuring the unity of action. The role of the Air Forces – ensuring, from the first moments of aggression, the conditions that are necessary for the economic and social mechanisms to work properly as well as the realisation of the strategic defence disposition – confers this category of forces an important position, as a decisive element in the framework of the national defence system. Colonel Costinel PETRACHE, PhD: There are still controversies regarding the doctrinaire understanding of the issue we are debating. That is why I am asking: How is the issue of air forces, air power, that of the Romanian Air Forces in fact, solved, within the limits of the doctrine ? Colonel Traian ANASTASIEI, PhD, Professor: The evolution of the Romanian air power, in the context of the changes in the system it is part of, can be considered relatively to the development of aviation, especially the military aviation, at world level, as well as to the transformations Romania has undergone in many fields (economic, political, social, military etc.). That is why many factors that influence it should be considered, factors that cannot be eluded while analysing the condition of the military aviation and especially while prefiguring its future, in terms of organisation, structuring and procurement. Among the most important factors that determine the changes and the direction of the air power evolution, we distinguish: the system of alliances 174 RMT Debates made by the political-military leadership – the prominent way to promote and safeguard national interests, especially those related to security, which is one of the most important concerns of the state foreign policy; the probable physiognomy of a future conflict in which aviation will take part – spatiality, rapidity and the “surgical” nature of strikes, which are some elements that require a certain direction of the air forces development; the geographical characteristics of the area of military action, which extend the “area of operations”, in space, up to the limit of the capabilities the air forces means have; the scientific and technical assets in the field. The evolutions in the scientific-technical field go hand in hand with the theoretical conceptions and the practical resolutions with regard to air power and the way it can be used. It is true that Romania’s aviation (as a basic element of the air power) cannot be compared, from the size and procurement point of view, at the current stage, to the aviation of economically and militarily developed states. This is the reason why we consider it necessary to focus on the activities in the field of military science, so that the best solutions could be found, regarding the importance of airspace “controlling” and that of convincing decision-makers to provide air forces with the necessary means. From this point of view, I salute the initiative of this debate, as well as the symposiums organised by the Air Forces Staff and the National Defence University “Carol I” regarding the Romanian Air Forces. Thus, some doctrinaire aspects that are strictly necessary to those in charge of drafting normative documents in the field have been clarified. Colonel Florian RÂPAN, PhD, Professor: Modern visions on the armed forces, either the alliance or the national ones, are based on the need for coping with the challenges of the future, which is marked by instability and incertitude. In most of the cases, these visions offer the image of armies capable to fight and win, “dominant in the full spectrum of military operations, persuasive in peacetime, decisive in war and superior in any type of conflict”. The future forces projection has in view, preponderantly, the integrated actions in operations that are specific to war, in peacekeeping and humanitarian operations. Within this general framework, we consider that, between the theoretical analysis of the air operations content, which lies on the instruments, system of concepts, laws and principles the military science operates with and these operations including in the operational plans, which lie on the options and the necessity for the war tasks and objectives to be achieved, there is the measurable reality of the forces actional capacity that is necessary for the objectives to be achieved in conformity with scientific norms. Air Flotilla General Victor STRÎMBEANU, PhD: There are no major conflicts, in the field of doctrine, regarding air power and air forces. There are though some controversies generated by the marginal interferences of their domains of definition. 175 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 An example in this context may be the airspace means being included or not in the air forces or, from a strictly organisational point of view, the dispute between the air forces and the naval forces over the aircrafts on plane carriers. These controversies, which apparently have no importance, have generated, in their turn, consequences, from the perspective of international laws included, directly affecting some treaties and their effects in the field of armament control. Another eloquent example of controversy refers to the air means inclusion in the framework of “conventional forces”; this thing has blocked the negotiations on reducing conventional forces in Europe for a long time. To come back to the strictly doctrinaire aspect in the question, I can say that air forces and the air potential/air power generated by them has been recognised as such for a long time and, although the military theorists in the “blue” zone used to be less prolific, nowadays there is a theoretical foundation that is equal to the ones of the other two categories of armed forces. Colonel Vasile BUCINSCHI, PhD, University Reader: During history, the controversies referring to the understanding and doctrinaire approach of air power have been manifest. These facts have occurred mainly in the states that, indeed, have something to say regarding the conceptual approach to air power role and importance. From my point of view, this is not only necessary but also beneficial, having in view the issue of air power, the evolution of the global security environment, the more and more important role of the air forces in the battlefield which, in its turn, is subject to transformations, the rapid technical progress in the field of aeronautics, with applications at the military level concerning avionic equipments, systems of armament, “stealth” technologies etc. Having in view what has already been mentioned, I consider a continuous re-evaluation of the necessary objectives, strategies, concepts and programmes, so that they could be adapted to the conditions proper to the 21st century. Under these circumstances, the necessity to adapt to a continuously changing operational environment, the rapid technical progress and the appearance of a new structural approach to global, regional and national security, the influence of globalisation, in the military fields included, require for the doctrines to develop. The Romanian Armed Forces doctrinaire issue raises a series of controversies and debates in the military plane at national level, especially in relation with other categories of forces, in the context of their joint usage. The Romanian Armed Forces have undergone one of the most important transformations in their history, systems’ integration and organisational evolution being accompanied by new operational concepts and personnel appropriate training. The fact that there are controversies and debates, disagreements and differences of opinions, that experts sometimes see things differently, show the importance air forces, in particular, and air power, in general, has within the national defence system. From my point of view, as long as this thing occurs in the field of research and the air forces issue is approached from an objective perspective, based on correct arguments 176 RMT Debates and fundaments, inspired by the desire to find the objective, scientific “way” for the doctrinaire development of air forces, everything is OK. Problems occur when, besides the conceptual approach, we encounter elements that may induce in “practitioners” a feeling of insecurity, of limiting initiative, of doctrinaire approach that is not defined in the concrete space of air action. Even if, after the year of grace – 1989, there has been a period in which doctrinaire concepts “got mad” as far as the Romanian Air Forces represented (in a doctrinaire way), I consider the changes and evolution in the latest years have succeeded in realising a correct unity of concepts and conceptions, so that this important category of forces could be used efficiently and effectively. I also consider there are still many steps to take to clearly define all the doctrinaire aspects of Romania’s air power. The desired finality may be the result of the integrated approach to the changes in the doctrinaire, organisational structures, training, equipment, leadership, personnel and facilities domains, all included in a credible and engaging future projection. Colonel Costinel PETRACHE, PhD: Would it be possible for a … zero degree-armed confrontation to occur, without the air forces employment ? Colonel Traian ANASTASIEI, PhD, Professor: Surely not ! Future world will be characterised by more and more subtle confrontations, at different levels, the military one included. Globalisation has changed the nature of war, as well as the context in which the state utilises military force in its conduct in the geopolitical environment. Without doubt, the “red thread” in the field of military actions is their joint character, which is known to be a complex phenomenon as far as theory, organisation and action are concerned. The air component, more and more refined and sophisticated, is omnipresent in the armed conflict at the end of the century, becoming the defining element of modern warfare. Moreover, the accentuation and extension of confrontation in airspace is forecast, fact that is confirmed by states’ security policies programmatic/normative documents: air forces are included in modern armies quasi-totality. Relatively new within the armed forces categories of forces, existing for less than a century, air forces have rapidly become important, due to their modernity and capacity to extend in space, which have led to a new way of conceiving military actions. If the First World War started being an air one, the Second World War was also an air war, the wars that followed them, no matter they had a local or limited character, highlighted the tendency of amplifying their air component, and the contemporary war cannot be conceived without it, at least in the predictable future. 177 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 In the context of military actions accentuated dynamics, of their physiognomy mobility, we witness the evolution of specific syntagms. Thus, the battlefield gets special significance, and the contact line becomes a contact surface. Spaces concentrate and time dilates, the military and non-military targets that are far away in the depth of belligerent territories can directly and immediately interact. The fact that the military actions classical image is overturned is mainly due to aviation that, through its specific properties (spatiality, high speed, independence from the terrestrial ways of communication etc.), allows for direct contact and immediate action, in some minutes or tens of minutes, over the enemy’s objectives that are tens and hundreds kilometres far away. Aviation, air forces in a broad sense, represent the extension that makes modern military actions consistent, conferring warfare the third dimension – air spatiality. Imagine a two-dimension world, actions carried out only in plane (geometrically speaking). It is evidently impossible. Colonel Florian RÂPAN, PhD, Professor: I, categorically, express the same opinion, not ! The latest local conflicts, the air operations in the wars in the Persian Gulf and former Yugoslavia and, more recently, in Lebanon and Palestine, accompanied by a large deployment of support and strike naval forces, determined some military experts to state that, in the future, we may face conflicts (wars) carried out in the air or naval environment only. Recognising the air and naval actions tendency to increase their weight, we associate the opinions according to which future actions will be joint, not only regarding the participant forces but also regarding the environment, their weight being different, according to the political-military tasks of the parties in conflict. There is thus an air components increasing tendency, under these conditions, which become more and more evident. Air Flotilla General Victor STRÎMBEANU, PhD: Everything is possible, but the hypothesis in the question is unlikely to verify; maybe, only in the context, absolutely hypothetical, in which neither of the belligerent forces makes use of air forces, which would be going back in the Middle Ages, and history does not go backwards. The first who would raise an aircraft in case the opponent could not answer similarly or could not make use of an efficient means of counter-attack, would win the confrontation, and the other would have to unconditionally accept the terms imposed by the winner. Colonel Vasile BUCINSCHI, PhD, University Reader: If we take a look back at what happened in the world in recent past and, at the same time, at what happens in the world nowadays, we notice there has been no “serious” armed confrontation without exploiting air and especially the air forces capable of deciding the fate of the conflict 178 RMT Debates or to place one of the parties involved in a strategic-advantageous position. At the current moment, the unique air forces characteristics and capabilities have revolutionised the nature of war, changing its “face” forever, so we could not imagine an armed confrontation without using air forces. Moreover, I think this is the “era” of air forces and, why not, that of the air-cosmic ones. Superiority and air supremacy are concepts that have impact not only on theoretical plane but also on the practical one, when, without gaining air superiority (supremacy) in conflict area, the actions in the other confrontation space (land, maritime, informational etc.) are impossible, or at least hardly to imagine. Colonel Costinel PETRACHE, PhD: I suggest transtemporally “playing” the essential issue of the debated theme. I would like you to refer not only to the air power image but also to the one of the air forces, as they have been evoked, at the end of the century that has just begun. Air Flotilla General Victor STRÎMBEANU, PhD: Air Forces have got a relatively short history compared to the other two categories of forces. Their evolution is characterised by a rapid, almost exponential rhythm and it is difficult to foresee what they will be like and what their weight in the armed conflicts will be in 90 years. One thing is already evident: air power evolves firstly towards an aero spatial power and then towards a spatial power and the fate of future wars will be decided, undoubtedly, from space. Sometimes, in the future, a clear cut between air power and spatial power may occur and thus a fourth category of armed forces – Spatial Forces could appear. Of course, not all states will afford developing this category of forces and those that do not do it will be a priori condemned. Colonel Florian RÂPAN, PhD, Professor: The issue of the third millennium war physiognomy is a main preoccupation for both political analysts and military experts in their attempts to provide answers to questions regarding the war content and the level of engagement, the limits of nuclear confrontation, the war level and the classical armed fight and the war perspectives and modern armed fight. Currently, four scenarios concerning future global alternatives are imagined by polemologists. We declare ourselves in favour of a moderate vision, which is situated between the two extremes: that of totally excluding wars and that of totally different wars, based on different laws and principles. Not at all very seldom, looking into the future, air strategists wonder: “What will the future war be like ?”, “Where will it take place ?”, “What forces will be employed ?”, “What about its physiognomy ?”, “How could victory against the adversary become concrete ?”. 179 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 In conclusion, in the next years, we will witness spectacular progress regarding air confrontations development, although we will not witness “Star War” scenarios, as the role of human factor will remain a top one in warfare and armed fight determinations. Colonel Vasile BUCINSCHI, PhD, University Reader: It is difficult to imagine what air power will be like at the end of the century. It is not because of the lack of imagination but because of the extremely rapid air power development, not only at national level but especially as far as the great world air powers at the current moment are concerned. It is very easy, of course, to slip towards “science-fiction” and to approach the issue of air power from an optimistically enough perspective. I think that “air power” will soon become an “aerospace power”. At the same time, the current concept “network centric warfare” will be found in all the domains of military confrontation and the role of aerospace power will be decisive in resolving the conflicts of the century that has just begun. I consider the evolution of aerospace power will again revolutionise warfare and will definitely mark the air power value applied in and from the atmospheric and extra-atmospheric space, so effectively that it would not have to be measured using the power current values. The long lasting military tendency towards influence and vulnerability different projection will favour the development of aerospace capabilities, thus remaining in the sphere of advanced technologies. The progress made as far as speed, range, agility, precision and lethality, combined with “stealth” technologies, independence/autonomy, information and data transmission will increase the degree of the third dimension exploitation for military purposes, through applying what we call air power and, maybe, aerospace power, as soon as possible. Colonel Traian ANASTASIEI, PhD, Professor: I accept your challenge although it is hazardous. Let us not forget that it is 100 years this year since Traian Vuia managed to “fly” a distance of (only) 12 m, using a machine that was heavier than air, which could take off by its own on board-means. Although, in short time after its appearance, aviation was inscribed in God Mars panoply, I think that, in future, the air power military connotation will diminish compared to the other aspects of human activity in airspace. Air power evolution will be strictly connected to human evolution, in general, and, for a long period, it will be the front platoon of human knowledge development, being confronted with the general problems of this globalisation era. The important accomplishments in the field of air power will not belong to one single man or one single country, therefore scientific and technologic cooperation will be more and more evident and even compulsory, as one of globalisation manifestations is borders “permeability” 180 RMT Debates up to their becoming merely symbolic. Confrontation bellicose significance will be diminished and it will more and more become competition. Subsequent to modern technologies development and our access to them (automation and miniaturisation), the specific techniques and activities dual character – air and cosmic – will be emphasised and we could more and more speak about an aero-cosmic power. Air power (aero-cosmic) will be very attractive as far as the decision-makers are concerned, as they will develop and utilise it according to its specific properties: possibility of opportune, accurate, desired intensity action, exactly where it is necessary and with minimum effects on the environment. It will also be preferred under military aspect, due to its coercive as well as its preventive role. New ways of airspace “exploiting” will certainly appear and, of course, airspace will be more accessible to everybody, so more crowded, which requires appropriate regulations, air transport security being of great concern. Air power has a large span, be it due to mere the fact that it has been studied through its form of manifestation, as a witness of the disputes between nations, of the rivalries and violence that used to culminate in wars, being thus given military connotations. Unfortunately, all the papers that approach the subject define it from this perspective and there are even periodicals that bear this title, which come from the military sphere only. Sometimes the other components are referred to, but only briefly, without taking into account the fact that they define what air power actually means. Political leaders, in general, define power as being the ownership of resources as a basis for imposing their own will in the relationship with others. These resources include, among others, population, territory, natural resources, economic dimension, military forces, and economic stability. Colonel Costinel Petrache, PhD: There came first the man’s dream of being able to fly, exactly as birds do, of being engulfed by the air and by the boundless verticality of becoming. Icarus represented both the measure and the final consequence of this dream. Then, in an undeclared remoteness of history, there came the flight itself, the detachment from the earth, by flying a machine that was heavier than the air we breathe. The flight immediately turns into power and it is from this point that we choose not to stop and the flight will not stop either. With a haste that is specific to earthquakes which once started, do not stop up to the moment when the energy that has set them moving has consumed its critical difference, air power becomes, exponentially, the best card of the military power of a state or of a group of states that play upon their 181 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 interests and destiny, geopolitically and geostrategically speaking. Seducing triumph of the effect over the cause, the air power – tendency and cohabitation towards the absolute of speed, of information and of the organic technology – it makes time a horizontal dimension, it inhibits the palpable history, it offers the perspective of the visible over the acoustic, it annihilates terrestrial references and primary vitalities, it develops abstractions that are difficult to control and certifies the arrogant victory of intensity over surfaces and of the instantaneous over the time that is expressed as depth. Everything, expressed in aesthetic formulae that obsessively compress the universal. Because either we like it or not, there is an aesthetic of air power. An aesthetic that, for most of us, transcends the current understanding of the time and space that govern our contemporaneity. Romania – It has been a century since its air power has tutelarily come out of wish, inspiration, courage and victory, a century since Traian Vuia’s “bird” historically freed itself from gravitational constraints. Like an eternal beautiful curse, which we cannot avoid, we are “sentenced” to adequately keep the status of air power in understanding, reality and projects. Especially since, it is from here, from us, that someone has dared and genially succeeded in measuring the infinite ! 182 MILITARY PUBLICATIONS UNIVERSE Groundwatch – ISTAR in Flux • Future Weapons: Power to Burn • Security: Watch Your Assets ! • Electronic Warfare: Osama, Don’t Phone Home ! • Missiles: New Dual Role for Antishippers • Vehicles: Self-Protection • Helicopters: SelfProtection • Reconnaissance Vehicles • Communication System • New French Metal at Eurosatory • Drones Armées d’aujourd’hui, France, no. 309, April 2006 Combat Training for Urban Conflict • Firefighters in Action • Bad Weather Warning for the Planet • Effects Based Operations – a New Crisis Management Concept • Temporary Force of United Nations in Lebanon • Projection Air Force • European Air Group • The Temptation of Walls (File) • Reconversion – a New Adventure • International Council of Military Sports Armées d’aujourd’hui, France, no. 310, May 2006 Sea Gendarmes, Vocation and Passion • Jean Couturier – a Frenchman of D Day • South-Saharan Countries on the Way to Democracy • Adapted Military Service • Defence Central Pharmaceutical Centre Against Bird’s Influenza • Marines and Commando Command • European Security and Defence Policy Moves Forward Hydrocarbon Pollution Alert near Ouessant Island • Emergency Medical Evacuation from N’Djamena • General Mohammadzai Khatol – Colour Bearer of the Afghan Women • Malacca Straits to Became a War Zone ? • Focus on Road Insecurity • A White Paper on Domestic Security Faced with Terrorism, Wherefore ? • 13th Dragoons Paratroopers Regiment of Special Forces • Rafale Aircraft in French Air Force • Intervention Squadron of French National Gendarmerie (Technical file) • Promoting the Dialogue North-South • Reserve Forces (File) • Researches on Stealth Air and Sea Ships Bulletin européen, Italia, no. 672, May 2006 Turkey on the Threshold of Stepping into Europe: Historical Premises • Einstein and the Crisis of Simultaneity Concept • Kantian Roots of Umberto Serafini’s Thought • France and European Arms Agency • For a European Federal Pact • To Conciliate the Free Expression Principle with Religious Beliefs Observance 183 Romanian Military Thinking Bulletin européen, Italia, no. 673, June 2006 We are not the Chaos’ Children • Turkey on the Threshold of Stepping into Europe • Family in Europe. Multiples Context and the Family Forms Diversity • Thoughts About Cultural Diversity • From Visible to Invisible: Splendour of Mount Athos Icons Europäische Sicherheit, Germany, no. 5, May 2006 Germany’s Interests Between USA and Russia • Opportunities and Obstacles of the “African Security Architecture” • What about the Security of our Energy ? • China’s Rise to a World Power • “The Future of our Security Systems are in the Partnership and Friendship with the USA” • Transformation in the Luftwaffe • Credible Policy Is Different • NATO and EU Initiative “Strategic Air Transport” • SOSTAR-X Should Be Realised as soon as Possible • Dialogue between Georgia and NATO Continues • 130 Class Corvette – Naming of the BRAUNSCHWEIG • Network Centric Warfare of the Army within International Context • Galileo – An Ambitious Project • Luftwaffe Hopes for New Aircraft • Traffic/Transportation Control Centre in the Area of Operations • War Correspondence – Experiences since 1999 • America’s Security Perspectives • Defence Against Asymmetric Threats in a Maritime Environment Europäische Sicherheit, Germany, nr. 6, June 2006 Problems with the Expansion of the EU • Ethical Principles of the Bundeswehr • Falludsha and the Transformation of the Armed Forces • 50 Years of German Army • The Discussion about German Security Police Be Broadened • Armament and Utilization – Basic Functions of Modern Logistics • Guided Missile Industry in Germany • F 125 – A Frigate on Course to Innovation • U 212 Submarine • International Air Show Berlin – ILA 2006 • Command Control and Information Centre of the Armed Forces for Fire Support of EU Battle Group • NATO Response Force and EU Battle Groups and Their Meaning for the Army • The German Society for Military Technology in Berlin • Multinational experiment 4 – Shaping the Future • Standing of the Armed Forces in the Political Field of “International Security” • Strategic Crisis Management in Population Protection – Joint Task and common Responsibility of the State • EUFOR – German Contribution 184 ~ 3/2006 in the Eleventh Year after Dayton European Colloquium 2006 Europäische Sicherheit, Germany, nr. 7, July 2006 A chance for a New Start • NATO’s Role in the 21st Century • Thoughts on the Officer’s Profession and Career in Today’s Bundeswehr • Transatlantic Crisis Reaction: NATO and ESDP • Strategic Intelligence Command • Operational Command of the Reaction Forces on the Way to Full Operational Readiness • “We Dispatch Soldiers only if the Security Is Guaranteed, as far as that Is Possible at all”. Interview with Member of the Bundestag • Logistic Challenges in the Introduction of New Weapon System – Described by the Example of the TIGER and NH90 Helicopters • The Upcoming NATO Summit in Riga Casts Its Shadow before • University of Ideas. Interview with the President of the Bundeswehr University Munich • Mission-Preparatory Training for Conflict Prevention and Crisis Management • Alliance Ground Surveillance – End of the Nightmare of the Military Command • Armoured Vehicles in Operations • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles • PUMA Armoured Infantry Fighting Vehicle • “Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik” Builds Bridges of Understanding with Ukraine • Ukrainian Officers Experience Armed Forces in the Democracy • “Sleeping Death” • Effects and Networking – Two Sides of a Medal • Making Peace – But How ? • Olmert and Abbas – With Full Speed into a Dead End ? • Account on the 2006 Berlin Colloquium on the Clausewitz-Gesellschaft • Restructuring of Army Officer Training Foreign Affairs, SUA, vol. 85, no. 2, March-April 2006 Seeing Baghdad, Thinking Saigon • Intelligence, Policy And the War in Iraq • The Last Exit from Iraq • The Rise of US Nuclear Primacy • The Backlash against Democracy Promotion • Ensuring Energy Security • Can Hamas Be Tamed ? • To Targeted Killings Work ? • Offshoring: The Next Industrial Revolution ? • China and Japan’s Simmering Rivalry • Taiwan’s Fading Independence Movement • Two Cheers for Expensive Oil Jane’s International Defence Review, UK, vol. 39, May 2006 NBC Reconnaissance Vehicles Are Advancing from the wilderness • Thales Hopes to Keep Ships in the Picture with Its Naval Sensor Suite • Navies Military Publications Universe Seek Answer to Missing Links • US Finally Looks Beyond the B-2 for Long Range Strike Capability • Unlocking the Austrian Defence Matrix • Cutting Through the Fog of War: Armed Forces Strive to Reduce Fratricide Threat Jane’s International Defence Review, UK, vol. 39, June 2006 French Army Transforms to Meet Challenge of Multirole Future • Underwater Sensors Shaping Up • Final Frontier Revisited: The US Responds to Space Requirements • Stryker Scores with US Tactical Vehicle Force • NATO Pursues Modern Art of Soldiering • New Danish Combat Support Ships Offer Greater Flexibility for NATO Operations • New Era M14 Alleviates Reliability Issues Jane’s International Defence Review, UK, vol. 39, July 2006 Dutch Study Range of Helicopter Upgrades • Upping the Stakes: Demand Rises for New Generation Tactical UAVs • Sailing Towards a Visible Horizon with Networked Naval Navigation • Debate Rages as Military Seeks to Counter Transport Aircraft Threat • Aerospace beyond Airframes: New Directions for European Industry • Flaws in the System: Modern Operations Test the Theory of Network Centricity • UK Carrier Force Is Readied for Strike Military Technology, Germany, vol. 30, no. 5, 2006 Quo Vadis, JSF ? • “Holy Prophet”: Iran’s April Hoax or Panic ? • Military Radio Communications: Assessing the Market • “Think Globally, Act Locally” – The Reform of the Bulgarian Armed Forces • The Role and Tasks of the Bulgarian Armed Forces • Bulgarian Defence Companies at HEMUS’06 • Emerging Sensors Technologies for Unmanned Aircraft Systems • “We Meet Our Commitments” • NATO Is and Remains the Strongest Anchor of Our Common Security • The Joint Air Power Competence Centre (JAPCC) • Sensors for UAV Systems – The JAPCC’s View • The EJ200 Engine for the Eurofighter • Russian Helicopter and Aero-Engine Companies at ILA 2006 • The Network Centric Operations Industry Consortium: Mastering Security in a Global Critical Environment Military Technology, Germany, vol. 30, no. 6, 2006 Toward the “Second Nuclear Age” • Defence against Biological, Chemical and Radiological Attacks • The Us Army/Us Air Force Joint Light Cargo Aircraft Programme • Chief of Defence Revisited • Thales FVT Series One-Man Operation Turrets • Countering the IED Threat • Emerging Opportunities in Optical Sensing and Exploitation • Tailored Tactical Surveillance • Precision Identification and Persistent Sensing • Opening the European Defence Market • A “Code of Conduct” on European Defence Procurement • Military Shelters • Personal Protection Solutions for Today’s Armed Conflicts • Track Facts – new tendencies in the Development of Modern Tracks • Israel Pursues Land Warfare Technology Innovation • Top Solutions for Mobile Tank Container Systems – Made by WEW Westerwälder Eisenwerk • “New Challenges in the Age of Changed Threats” • NATO and EU “Strategic Airlift” Initiative Successfully Concluded under German Leadership • AUSA Winter Symposium 2006 ÖMZ (Österreichische Militärische Zeitschrift), Austria, no. 4, July-August 2006 War Determination Planning • USA’s SubSaharan-Africa Policy • The Historical Development of the Special Operations Forces • The Century of Peasants’ Wars in Austria from 1513 until 1626 • Iran after Presidential Election – Aggravation in the Nuclear Controversy ? • “Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained”. Critical Comments on the Deployment of Western Military Special Forces Marked by Multiple Conflict Scenarios • No Dead Bodies ! Modern War and the Grassroots of War Correspondence • The Importance of Military Ethics within the Civilian Morality Construction Revue militaire suisse, Switzerland, no. 5, May 2006 Management Commission of National Council to Consider Training System of Force XXI • 1506-2006: Five Hundred Years of Swiss Pontifical Guard • The Main “reservoir” of the Swiss Pontifical Guard • Impressions and experiences of a Rookie in the Swiss Pontifical Guard • Advanced Formation 185 Romanian Military Thinking for the Future Generals ? • Formation for “Disaster Medicine” • 20 th Century: Militia Army in Switzerland and technology (2) • Suicides Among Policemen • Samuel Huntington’ Thesis (the Clash of Civilizations) and the Situation after 11th of September 2001 • Deadlock in Kosovo ? (2) How are Terrorists Communicate: Myths and Realities • What Enemy have the Americans in Iraq ? • To Track After Snappers Opposing to SFOR Signal, SUA, vol. 60, no. 9, May 2006 People Power Drives Special Operations • Marine Corps Special Operations Command Hits the Beach • Special Operations Forces Dive Deep • Missiles Aim for Mach 4 Capability • Collaborative Technologies Demand Deep Change • Collaboration Enables Technological Slight of Hand • Research Team Seeks Solutions for Warfighters on the Move • Sweden Seeks Military Communications Flexibility • System Moves Light with Electrons, Not Gears • Alert System Attracts Attention • Coordination among Groups Key to Protecting Capital Region • Conference Highlights Information Sharing and Interoperability Priorities Signal, SUA, vol. 60, no. 10, June 2006 US Recoups Nighttime Primacy • Networking the World’s Most Powerful Military • US Navy Covers the Oceans with Technology • US Army Reforges Training and Readiness • Technology Takes Flight • Mighty Minis Find Foes • Dedicated Army Force Speeds Technology to Warfighters • Collaboration, ~ 3/2006 Security and Aircraft loom Large in Defence Programs • Major Programs Open Europe’s Checkbook • Effects Based Approach Reshapes Strategic Landscape. Survival, UK, vol. 48, no. 2, Summer 2006 Populist Resurgence in Latin America ? • Sources and Limits of Chinese “Soft Power” • Demilitarising the “War on terror” • Nuclear Terrorism: A disheartening Dissent • Europe’s Jihadist Dilemma • What Missile Proliferation Means for Europe • Chaos in the North Caucasus and Russia’s Future • The Emerging Consensus for Preventive War Truppendienst International, Austria, nr. 2, 2006 The History of Bosnia and Herzegovina from Ancient Times to the 20th Century • The Collapse of Yugoslavia and the War in Bosnia and Herzegovina • The State of Bosnia and Herzegovina • The Population • Geography • Transport and Communication • Economy • A Single Military Force for 21st Century • The EUFOR – Operation Althea • EUFOR’s Activities in Support of the Law Enforcement Agencies of Bosnia and Herzegovina Tackling Organised Crime and Corruption • The Development of Information Campaigns by IFOR, SFOR and EUFOR • Deployment of Liaison and Observation Team • Doctrine of Integrated Police Units • A Political Survey • The European Union in Bosnia and Herzegovina • International Missions to Bosnia and Herzegovina • International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia. Selection and Translation Ioana MANAFU, Delia PETRACHE, Mihai POPESCU National Military Library 186 & EDITORIAL EVENTS Texts, notes, comments and incidental national legislation – all these are reunited in the volume România – NATO. Tratate fundamentale (Romania – NATO. Fundamental Treaties), a volume that was compiled by a collective of authors in the field of military law, namely Brigadier Floarea {erban, PhD, Lieutenant Colonel Constantin Zanfir, Second Lieutenants Alina Damian and Daniel Ronciu and coordinated by Teodor ATANASIU. The book, published by Editura Militar`, reunites the main Romanian legislative acts regarding the relation with NATO, thus providing a general image of Romania’s responsibilities as an Alliance Member. In the four chapters, the fundamental NATO treaties Romania is part of are presented – The North Atlantic Treaty (1949), the Agreement Between the Parties to the North Atlantic Treaty Regarding the Status of Their Forces (1951), the Protocol On the Status of International Military Headquarters Set up Pursuant to the North Atlantic Treaty (1952), the Agreement on the Status of Missions and Representatives of Third States to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (1994), in both Romanian and English; the stipulations regarding the status of the forces that are subject to the bilateral treaties established between Romania and some of the NATO Member States; excerpts from the Constitution of Romania, the Civil Code, Law no. 295/2004 on arms and ammunition regimes, Law no. 182/2002 on classified information protection, Law no. 42/2004 on armed forces taking part in missions outside the national territory, the Government Emergency Ordinance no. 121/1998 on military assuming material responsibility, Order of the Minister of Public Finance no. 292/2006 on the approval of the Procedure for refunding the value added tax to NATO Member States armed forces that take part in the common defence effort. The normative acts are preceded by an introductory study which approaches the need to have this kind of contribution, the more so as the book can be used as an instrument in the relations with foreign armed forces, as well as one for those who actually apply the provisions of these normative acts. 187 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 Mention should be made that the normative acts that are presented in this in volume are based on the ones published in the Official Gazette of Romania up to 15th of March 2006. “The powerful word of this writer”, having a penchant for a comma, a perpetual comma, adds two more books to the impressive “inventory” of the Professor Nicolae ROTARU: Psi – leadership. Management organiza]ional în domeniul siguran]ei na]ionale (Psi – Leadership. Organisational Management in the Field of National Safety) (2005) and Lider [i actant (Leader and Actant) (2006), both published by Editura ANI. The first book approaches the organisational management and military-type leadership. The author defines organisation, presents its characteristics and structure, and outlines a typology of organisational entities, according to the structure, purpose, way of recruitment, coagulation, restrictions, beneficiaries and way to command. In this “mosaic of tendencies”, organisational culture proves to be “an ensemble of values, ways of thinking and behaviour of the members of an organisations”, therefore reuniting the values, beliefs and hypothesis shared by the members of an organisation. A paideutic approach, according to the author, which provides us with “the main theoretical milestones and the minimum experimentalpractical support” that is necessary to surpass all the “mandatory steps” in the field of organisational management. The second book, a collection of lectures and essays on command, communication and co-existence, invites us to reading, meditation and competitive spirit through the words of Traian Liteanu, PhD, University Reader, the one who signs the Foreword. Therefore, let us cover, between “commanding and managing”, the meanders of communication, as this is the global “shareholder” in conflict management, navigating through the “symbols of communication managerial relations”, into intellectual and aesthetic education and a conversational education in the domain of intelligence. Among information and communication risks, let us see the communication language as a metalanguage and let us try to become accustomed with the skill of the comprehensibility of persuasion. The book is dedicated to all the author’s teachers, who, as his mentors, helped and supported him to become a gifted mentor in his turn. We have already mentioned C`lin HENTEA on previous occasions in the pages of this journal, in fact, its books speak for themselves, and I would like to express my gratitude for the Imaginile mi[cate ale propagandei (Moved Images of Propaganda), a book published by Editura Militar`, in the new Colec]ia Polemos, 188 Editorial Events with a Foreword signed by Radu Voinescu. Balancing between theory and reality, the author opens the door of image for us, while admonishing us, with reason, we might add, saying that many of us “have no clue about all these wars that have caught our eye because of what we see on TV news bulletins”, although we speak about them most of the time and almost everywhere, and they have become some kind of “ordinary gossips”. Beyond words, there are always questions and the topics that the author suggests for us. Communication is the key, we always say that. But how much can it help us ? C`lin Hentea closely examines this world that has been tangled in wonderful things and abjections, in self-pride and performance, in emotions and anger. Acid, attentive, sincere and sensible, C`lin Hentea’s style carries us somewhere, in a world wearing the “new garments of propaganda”, still, an old world, polished up and hidden: “We have got used to living with the emotions generated by the war that is broadcast live. We come across it, we see it, we read about it, we comment upon it daily, at home, in the armchair, at work, during coffee break, or when we go out, to have a beer. We have firm convictions, we have online information at our disposal, we provide miraculous solutions … We do not know for sure why it has broken out, how it is waged and not even who will be the one to win it. This is a paradox of the computerised society, that has entered the third millennium full of self-pride, after having read, a long time ago, “All Quiet on the Western Front” and having seen, most recently, on TV, “Apocalypse Now”. The images of propaganda are “in motion”, the book is an exciting and real movie about us, first of all, about the soldiers that are in missions, far from the country, “a kind of ambassadors for the cause of Romania’s NATO or EU integration”, and secondly a confession of the seen and touched failures: “Sixty years ago, same as now, the soldiers sent by the Romanian state to defend its interests outside the national borders had less available means and resources than the allies to promote the country’s image”. A confession, states the author, “slices” of his life and thoughts. Anyway, the truth will disappear together with us, and trying to disclose it, by any means, will make us tired and probably, at one point, we will not know what to do with it. And C`lin Hentea reminds us that the “unique and absolute truth is only a philosophic ideal”. {tefan Gheorghidiu knew this, too. The first issue of this year of the Revista Academiei For]elor Aeriene (Air Force Academy Magazine) recommends us, through the agency of Professor {tefan Nedelcu, PhD, in an article entitled “On information”, to reflect, beyond definition and meanings, on the relationship between scientific information and knowledge – when does knowledge-based information turn into knowledge as such ? This is a difficult 189 Romanian Military Thinking ~ 3/2006 question, the more so as, sometimes, in addition to knowledge, the “original element – information” must occur. The review consists of a series of articles regarding the domain of technical sciences and applied mathematics – “Properties of the Harmonic Series”, “Computer Assisted Modelling of the Signals Spectral Analysis”, “Experimental Research regarding the Variation of the Coefficient of Friction in Sliding Bearings”, as well as regarding management and social-human sciences – “Communication and its Esoteric Dimension”, “The Psychology of Change”, “The Integration of Managers – Starting Point for Quality Management”, Zoon erotikon: Prolegomena to a Phenomenological Speech on Erotism”, “The Romanian Being from a New Linguistic Perspective”, “1906-2006. 100 of years of flying”. “The air is the realm of the developed states. And this is not a novelty. It is a reality of one century of aviation. Nevertheless, the division of labour on the warlike or pacific sky of the planet, which sends its messengers out in Space, requires education. It means skills. It calls for talent. It entails sacrifice …”. The interview given by the Air Forces Chief of Staff, General Lieutenant Gheorghe CATRINA, PhD, to the Cer Senin Magazine, no. 2/2006, regarding the topic of national security and defence lets us know about sacrifice and self-denial and the tough reality of the modern air conflict. The magazine provides us with information about the reunion of the Navigation Subcommittee of NATO Consultation, Command and Control Board (March 2006), about the “Traian Vuia’s Flight” centenary celebrated in Bra[ov, “Doors Open Day” at the 70th Air Transport Base (17th of March), the inauguration of “Traian Vuia” Hall, in the new building of the Aviation Museum, the exercise “Lone Bustard” carried in the South of France, about the tactical missiles for rapid reaction forces, the exercise “Volfap 1 – 2006”, the MARS radio programme, the JDAM system from Norway, and history pages: “The development of artillery and surface-to-air missiles between 1970-1989”, lessons learnt: “Learning from experience”, an interview with Lieutenant Colonel Ovidiu B`lan, Head of the Lessons Learnt Office within the Air Forces Staff. From another part of our country, from a place full of history and research activity – Constan]a, Anuarul Muzeului Marinei Rom#ne ~ 2005 (The Annual of the Romanian Marine Museum), a special issue, edited on the occasion of the anniversary 190 Editorial Events of 145 years since the Modern Military Marine Museum was established, under the aegis of the Editura Companiei Na]ionale Administra]ia Porturilor Maritime Constan]a S.A. This volume, which is the eight, encompasses articles and studies from the field, for instance: “The Danube – River-Maritime Communication Route”, “The Status of Dobruja at the beginning of 1916”, “Italian Destinations in the Black Sea Basin – Ordinary Routes (13th – 14th century)”, “The Milan Treaty and the Venetian Navigation in the Black Sea in the First Decades of the 16th Century”, “Macroeconomic Consequences of the Fall of Constantinople. Milestones”, “The Evolution of the Romanian Military Marine between 1860-1914”, “The City of Br`ila in the Strategic Conception of the Year 1944”, “The Balkans and the Great Powers. Romanian Insight over the Strategic Interests”, “Maritime Activities Geopolitics”, “Certain Historic-Geopolitical Aspects of Russia’s “Game” in the Black Sea and the way the Romanian historic interests are affected by that”. Cultural centre, the Romanian Marine Museum has a collection of approximately 6 000 manuscripts and documents from personal archives, autochthonous or foreign, regarding marine historiography, naval technology, and marine literature. The oldest book one can find in the Museum’s library is L’Origine del Danubio, which was printed in Venice, in 1648. Editorial Selection and Arguments @ Alina UNGHEANU 191 Thinking Differently ... Cristi VECERDEA ~ CRIV Glory Tank 192 Thinking Differently ... Mythology Map 193 Résumés La stratégie de la certitude Pacification: l’école française L’éditorial met en évidence les traits de la certitude de la perspective d’un rapport ouvert et positif entre la certitude et la performance. C’est une relation transparente, méthodique et adéquate, où la performance explique et soutient la certitude comme une sorte d’existence pour de certains stratégies, plans ou projets. L’auteur souligne aussi les vertus de la certitude, qui soutiennent le processus d’une stabilité organisationnelle, la transformation même de l’institution militaire nationale, par La Stratégie de transformation de l’Armée Roumaine. A la fin du XIXème si è cle a été élaborée, par le maréchal Gallieni et Lyautey et le général Pennequin, une idée française sur la pacification, par la volonté de dépasser, éventuellement, les concepts anglo-saxons qui étaient la base de la doctrine de l’armée française. Les initiateurs proposaient la gestion indirecte comme un modèle d’organiser de cette école de pacification, y compris en tenant compte de règles du théâtre classique: l’unité du lieu, du temps, de l’ action, à l’ordre d’un seul commandant chef – militaire ou civil. Le front et le menton: penser et agir pour l’officier Peut-on laisser les reporters de guerre «se glisser dans nos lits» ? L’article définie les caractéristiques d’un chef commandant militaire, nommé à n’importe quel niveau de responsabilité, particulièrement au niveau stratégique. Il faut qu’il soit en même temps un organisateur, administrateur et législateur, un homme de caractère et capable d’initiative, tout sur le fond d’une culture militaire significative. “Un homme d’action qui pense”, en ce cas, le front et le menton en trouvant dans une complémentarité autant naturelle, autant forte. Le sujet de cet article montre l’importance que nous doivent accorder aux reporters qui se trouvent dans un théâtre d’opérations. Au-delà des questions, l’auteur met sur le tapis une possible coopération, “un dialogue équilibré” entre les reporters et les forces déployées sur un théâtre d’opérations, particuli è rement pendant une situation de crise. Dans ce contexte, l’auteur nous présente une analyse de communication, réalisée par la Fondation Electricité de France en 1999. Le sabre et l’esprit Vo Nguyen Giap: stratège de génie et instrument de l’indépendance du Vietnam La conviction de Napoléon, comme le sabre est toujours battu par l’esprit, représente le point de partir pour une démarche sur la problématique d’instrument militaire, sur l’apparent immobilisme de l’institution militaire. L’auteur met sur le tapis la nécessite et la motivation d’une adaptation d’instrument militaire à n’importe quelle confrontation de type symétrique ou asymétrique. 194 L’auteur présente les traits du général Vo Nguyen Giap, vu comme un commandant chef qui a su exploiter les circonstances, mais aussi les erreurs de ses adversaires. Entre l’admiration et déclin, pendant trente ans, le général a prouvé par des qualités spéciales autant dans le domaine Abstracts de la stratégie, que celui de la tactique, bien connaître les techniques de guérilla combinées, souvent, avec celles de la guerre conventionnelle. Divergences stratégiques L’auteur analyse par l’opposition les trois concepts stratégiques fondamentales élaborés dans l’intervalle avril 1999-décembre 2003 – le Concept stratégique de l’Alliance, la Stratégie nationale de sécurité et la Stratégie européenne de sécurité, ayant comme le point de partir les valeurs communes de les trois organismes signataires – OTAN, Etats-Unis d’Amérique, respectivement l’Union européenne. L’auteur recommande “une lecture attentive” de ces documents, parce que les méthodes d’aborder les problèmes du monde peuvent être, parfois, divergentes. La guerre du Nil aura-t-elle lieu ? Pour les pays du Nil les ressources en eau sont insuffisantes. On peut parler d’une politique de l’eau égyptienne, dit l’auteur, où l’Egypte ne doit pas avoir le droit particulier des eaux du fleuve. Un paradoxe à titre duquel existent, au fait, de nombreux tensions qui pourraient se transformer dans un véritable conflit et une véritable tragédie pour Egypte, touché dans l’un de ses intérêts vitales. Il semble que ce problème sera solutionné seulement par un appui international. La politique extérieure des États-Unis d’Amérique à la lumière de leur histoire intérieure En allant de la mention du chef d’Etat-major des armées françaises, qui disaient que “la politique extérieure américaine s’explique par son histoire intérieure”, l’auteur nous présente quelques moments de l’histoire intérieure des Etats-Unis, dont on peut détacher quelques conclusions relatives à la compréhension de ceux deux pôles qui en marquaient son existence et son développement – l’isolationnisme et l’interventionnisme. Tout dans le contexte auquel, bien qu’ils partagent avec les Américains de nombreuses valeurs, pages d’histoire et des intérêts économiques, ce sont les Françaises qui percevoient le monde dans une manière différente. La fin du management ? En soulignant la force individuelle et le rôle bien élevé des relations interpersonnelles, l’auteur propose un sujet-question: on peut attendre à la fin du management classique et à la parution ou peut-être seulement au son remplacement par une “démocratie organisée” ? En attendant un réponse, l’article traite le management du point de vue psychologique et aussi qui provoque une émotion, du point de vue social et, pas du tout au final, le management dans l’organisation militaire. La politique globale C’est l’auteur qui met en évidence le terme de “politique globale” en rapportant aux institutes et organisations formales qui élaborent et soutiennent les r è gles et les normes qui conduisent l’ordre mondiale, comme les institutions d’Etat ou celles du domaine de la coopération intergouvernemental. La politique globale renferme non seulement la problématique géopolitique qui se réfère à la sécurité et aux affaires militaires, mais aussi une diversité de problèmes économiques, sociales et écologiques. Politique de force, stratégie qui tient à un fil L’auteur traite la situation présente du sud de Liban par la prisme de trois types de politiques, chacun d’eux avec sa stratégie: une politique de force, qui est soutenue par de stratégies directes, qui visent la destruction des réseaux Hezbollah et Hamas; une politique de tromperie et dissimulation, par des stratagèmes et des stratégies indirectes, en suivant l’accentuation de l’hostilité du monde arabe contre l’Israël, mais aussi une politique de riposte, par de stratégies asymétriques, qui visent l’identification des vulnérabilités d’Israël. La puissance et son rôle dans le contexte de la géopolitique post-moderne L’auteur présente quelques théories et concepts qui ont défini la puissance dans les relations internationales, parmi lesquelles il y a celles de Martin Wight, Gerard Dussoury, Peter Morris, Gianfranco Poggi et Alvin Toffler, pour mettre en évidence quelques’uns de intérêts et les 195 Romanian Military Thinking comportements de différents acteurs dans le domaine de la géopolitique. La conclusion est que la politique d’un Etat ou d’un acteur non-Etat ne peut pas être traitée dans la perspective postmoderne par des termes d’un déterminisme géographique rigide. Les rapports politico-militaires dans la Zone Elargie de la Mer Noire. Expressions et tendances Important nœud de communications qui unit trois continents, la Mer Noire continue de susciter l’intérêt de grands stratèges du monde. En allant du fait que la Zone Etendue de la Mer Noire se confronte par de nombreux risques et menaces relatif à son assurance et à son stabilité, l’auteur nous présente les principales buts de la coopération ~ 3/2006 politico-militaire dans cet area. Il met en évidence l’élargissement des partenariats stratégiques. La guerre de l’Afghanistan dans le contexte de la liquidation du terrorisme mondial L’article est une description du cet “polygone de la terreur” qui est l’Afghanistan, le lieu de rencontrer et développer le terrorisme, l’extrémisme international et les trafiquants de drogues. L’auteur insiste sur l’état de sécurité comme un facteur décisif dans la reconstruction de l’Afghanistan, celle-ci en suivant deux directions: la lutte contre les forces anticoalition et l’application d’un programme de re-reconstruction de la société civile, qui se trouve à présent dans un pauvreté inimaginable. Version française par @ Alina UNGHEANU 196 Zusammenfassungen Strategie der Sicherheit Der Leitartikel die Züge der Sicherheit hebt unter dem Gesichtspunkt eines offenen und positiven Berichtes hervor zwischen der Sicherheit und der Leistung. Eine transparente, methodische und adäquate Beziehung wo die Leistung die Sicherheit als Existenz der Strategien, Pläne oder Projekte motiviert. Der Autor hebt auch die Tugenden der Sicherheit hervor, die in der Schaffung einer organisatorischen Stabilität, in der Umwandlung der nationale Militärinstitution selbst durch die Umwandlungsstrategie der rumänischen Armee bestehen Die Vorderseite und das Kinn: denken und für den offizier handeln Der Artikel die Eigenschaften eines auf irgendeinem Verantwortungsniveau genannten Militärkommandant, aber besonders auf strategischem Niveau definiert. Er muß gleichzeitig Organisator, Verwalter und Justitiar sein, er muß Mann von Charakter, intelligenten sein, und er muß Initiative haben, all das auf dem Grund einer ausgedehnten Militärkultur. “Ein Aktionsmann, der sich denkt”, in diesem Fall die Stirn und das Kinn ergänzen sie sich sowohl natürlich als auch stark. Der Säbel und der Geist Die Überzeugung von Napoleon, gemäß der Säbel immer durch den Geist besiegt wird, stellt den Ausgangspunkt eines Vorgehens der, daß die Problematik des Militärinstrumentes, die offensichtliche Unbeweglichkeit der Militärinstitution betrifft. Der Autor die Notwendigkeit und die Rechtfertigung der Anpassung des Militärinstrumentes an jede symmetrische oder asymmetrische Typenkonfrontation zur Diskussion stellt. Die Friedensstiftung: französische Schule Ende des 19. Jahrhunderts die Marschälle Gallieni und Lyautey und der General Pennequin haben einen französischen Gedanken ausgearbeitet auf der Friedensstiftung, aus Wunsch auf eine gewisse Art die angelsächsischen Konzepte überschreiten, die die Doktrin der französischen Armee schmolzen. Die Initiatoren schlugen als Organisationsmodell dieser Friedensstiftungsschule die indirekte Verwaltung unter der Beachtung der Regeln des klassischen Theaters vor: Ort, Zeit, nur eine Aktion unter den Befehl einer einziger Chef – militär oder zivil. Kann man die Kriegsberichter sich in unserem “Leben verkehren lassen” ? Das Thema des Artikels ist der Ort, den man den anwesenden Journalisten in einem Operationstheater gewähren muß. Über die Fragen hinaus lenkt der Autor die Aufmerksamkeit auf eine mögliche Zusammenarbeit, “einen überlegten Dialog” zwischen den Journalisten und den in einem Theater verteilte Kräften besonders während einer Krise. In diesem Sinn stellt man uns eine Analyse der Mitteilung vor, die durch die Gründung E.D.F im Jahre 1999 erstellt wurde. Vo Nguyen Giap: genialer Stratege und Instrument der Unabhängigkeit Vietnams Der Autor legt uns die Darstellung des Generals Vo Nguyen Giap vor, der als ein Kommandant 197 Romanian Military Thinking gesehen wurde, der die Umstände, aber auch die Fehler seine Gegner spekulieren konnte. Zwischen der Bewunderung und dem Niedergang dreißig Jahren lang hat der General der Beweis einer außergewöhnlicher Qualitäten, sowohl im Bereich der Strategie, durch die Optik, die er gegenüber den Ereignissen gehabt hat, als auch in jenem der Taktik, durch die Beherrschung der Guerillatechniken oft kombiniert mit jenen des konventionellen Krieges Strategische Divergenzen Der Autor analysiert im Genesatz die drei grundlegenden strategischen Konzepte, die im Intervall April 1999-Dezember 2003 ausgearbeitet wurden – das strategische Konzept der Allianz, die nationale Sicherheitsstrategie und die Europäische Sicherheitsstrategie, die gemeinsamen Werte der drei Unterzeichnerorganismen – die NATO, die Vereinigten Staaten und die EU – als Ausgangspunkt haben. Der Autor empfiehlt “eine aufmerksame Lektüre” dieser Dokumente, denn die Methoden die Fragen der Welt anzugehen können manchmal unterschiedlich sein. Wird ein Krieg Nils stattfinden ? Für die Länder auf Nil die Wassermittel sind ungenügend. Man kann über eine Politik des ägyptischen Wassers sprechen, sagt der Autor, in dem Ägypten kein Sonderrecht nicht mehr auf den Gewässern des Flusses haben dürfte. Es ist ein Paradox, unter dem übrigens zahlreichen Spannungen verborgen, die in einen Konflikt und in eine echte Tragödie für Ägypten, in seinen lebenswichtigen Interesse erreicht, zu entarten könnten. Es scheint, daß das Problem nur durch internationale Unterstützung gelöst wird. Die Außenpolitik der Staaten, die im Licht ihrer internen Geschichte Ab der Erwähnung, die der Chef des Generalstabs der französischen Armeen machte, gemäß der “die amerikanische Außenpolitik ihrer internen Geschichte erklärt”, stellt der Autor uns einige Zeitpunkte der internen Geschichte der Vereinigten Staaten vor, von denen man eine Reihe von Schlußfolgerungen ziehen kann, was das 198 ~ 3/2006 Verständnis der zwei Pole betrifft, die ihm die Entwicklung un die Dasein markiert haben – der Isolationismus und der Interventionismus. All das ab der Tatsache, daß, obwohl sie zahlreiche Werte, Geschichtsseiten und wirtschaftliche Interessen mit den Amerikanern teilen, die Franzosen die Welt auf eine andere Art wahrnehmen. Das Ende des Managements ? Der Autor unterstreicht die individuelle Macht und die verstärkte Rolle interpersonnelles Beziehungen, und schlägt uns ein Thema-Frage vor: kann man uns zum Ende des klassischen Managements und am seinem Aufkommen oder vielleicht nur an seinem Austausch durch eine “organisierte Demokratie” erwarten ? In Erwartung einer Antwort, behandelt der Artikel das Management unter psychologischen, leichten erregbar und sozialen Gesichtspunkt und auch das Management in der Militärorganisation. Globale Politik Der Artikel bahandelt das Konzept “globaler Politik” und hinweist auf die Institutionen und auf die formales Organisationen, die die Regeln und die Normen ausarbeiten und unterstützen die die der weltweite Ordnung regieren, wie beispielsweise die Institutionen des Staates und jene der zwischenstaatlichen Zusammenarbeit. Die globale Politik nicht nur der geopolitischen Problematik betreffend die Sicherheit und die Militärangelegenheiten umfasst, sondern eine Vielfalt wirtschaftlicher, sozial und ökologischer Probleme. Gewaltpolitik, Strategie am Rand des Abgrunds Der Autor behandelt die derzeitige Lage des Süd Libanon unter dem Gesichtspunkt von drei Arten von Politiken, jede mit seiner Strategie: eine Gewaltpolitik, die durch direkte Strategien unterstützt wird, die anvisiert, die Netze Hezbollah und Hamas zu zerstören; eine Betrugs-und Verbergungspolitik durch Listen und indirekte Strategien, die die Betonung der Feindseligkeiten der arabischen Welt gegen Israel verfolgt, und eine Gegenschlagpolitik durch asymmetrische Abstracts Strategien, die auf die Identifikation der Verletzbarkeit Israels abzielt. Die Macht und ihre Rolle im postmoderne Geopolitik Der Autor stellt jemandes von seinen Theorien und Konzepten vor, die die Macht in den internationalen Beziehungen definiert haben, unter denen von Martin Wighte, Gerard Dussouy erwähnt, Peter Morris, Gianfraco Poggi und Alvin Toffler. Der Autor versucht einige Interessen und Verhalten der verschiedenen Akteure im geopolitischen Feld umreissen. Die Schlußfolgerung ist, daß die Politik des Staates oder eines nichtstaatlichen Akteur kann nicht aus postmodernen Perspektive gedenkt sein, in den Begriffen des starren geographischen Determinismus. Die Tendenz politico-militärischen Beziehungen in der erweiterten Zone des Schwarzen Meeres Bedeutend Kommunikationsknot, der drei Kontinente versammelt, das Schwarze Meer das Interesse großer Strategen der Welt weiter hervorruft. Ab der Tatsache, daß die erweiterte Zone des Schwarzen Meeres sich mit einer Reihe von Risiken und Bedrohungen an ihrer Sicherheit und ihrer Stabilität konfrontiert, stellt der Autor uns die Hauptzielsetzungen der politico-militärischen Zusammenarbeit in dieser Region vor. Der Krieg im Afghanistan im Rahmen der Beilegung des weltweiten Terrorismus Der Artikel ist eine Beschreibung dieses “Polygons des Terrors”, den Afghanistan, Ort der Zusammenkunft und der Entwicklung des Terrorismus internationalem Extremismus und den Drogenhändlern ist. Der Autor betonnt auf dem Sicherheitsstand als bestimmenden Faktor in der Konstruktion Afghanistans, das zwei Direktionen verfolgt: das Kampf gegen der Antikoalitionkräfte und die Anwendung eines Programms des Wider-Wiederaufbaus der Zivilgesellschaft, jetzt in einer unvorstellbaren Armut. 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