1 Regional model USA 71/6 (different versions and specifications) (i

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Regional model USA 71/6 (different versions and specifications)
(i) The model of Glickman: A general form of the equations
Source: S.T. Deloughy, A small-region econometric model employing estimates of
aggregate personal income, Ph.D. Dissertation 1989
Manufacturing Output =
f1(population; GNP; national industry output; lagged regional output;
regional trading partner output)
Nonmanufacturing Output =
f2(personal income; population; national output; regional employment)
Manufacturing employment =
f3(output; lagged employment; local trading partner output)
Nonmanufacturing Employment = f 4(lagged employment; output)
Wage = f5(national wage; regional unemployment; lagged wage)
Proprietor Income = f6(retail sales)
Transfer Payments = f 7(lagged corporate bond rate; U.S. transfer payments)
Other Labor Income = f8(wage; gross regional product)
Consumer Price Index = f 9(national price index; labor costs; regional profits)
Federal Income Tax Payments = f 10(tax base; effective tax rate)
Federal Sector Output =
f11(federal spending; gross regional product, lagged federal output)
Total Government Employment = f12(lagged gross regional product;
lagged employment; local government output)
Local Government Employment ≡
total government employment - federal government employment
Tax Revenues = f13(market value of property; total employment)
Municipal Expenditures = f14(tax revenues; lagged expenditures)
School Enrollment = f15(population; lagged enrollment)
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Market Value of Property =
f16(population; gross regional product; regional consumer price index)
Manufacturing Investment =
f17(gross regional product; lagged manufacturing output;
lagged capital stock; spread between long and short term interest rates)
Population =
f18(natural increase; gross regional product; wage)
Unemployment =
f19(U.S. unemployment; lagged regional unemployment;
gross regional output; change in employment)
Retail sales = f20(disposable personal income)
Time Deposits =
f21(disposable personal income; lagged time deposits; high-grade bond rate)
Demand Deposits =
f22(gross regional product; lagged demand deposits; corporate bond rate)
Notation:
f(z)
zi
a function of z’ = (z1, z2, , …, zn)
a variable determining the left hand side economic variable, e.g. wage
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(ii) Ossature et principales articulations du modèle de Glickman
Schema de traitement typique d'un secteur regional exportateur
Source:
C. Demons, Les Modèles Macroeconometriques Regionaux (2eme partie)
in: Revue d'Economie Regionale et Urbaine 1, 1979, 60
Production
nationale
Production
régionale
Productivité
nationale
Productivité
régionale
Emploi
régional
Emploi
nationale
Coût relatif
Salaire national
Cout national
unitaire du
travail
modèle national
Coût regional
unitaire du
travail
Salaire régional
modèle regional
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(iii) Ossature et principales articulations du modèle de Glickman
Source: C. Demons, Les Modèles Macroeconometriques Regionaux (2eme partie)
in: Revue d'Economie Regionale et Urbaine 1, 1979, 57
Bloc production
Bloc emploi
Emploi par
secteurs
PRODIUT
S. BASE
PRODUIT
REGIONAL
EMPLOI
TOTAL
PRODUIT
S. LOCAL
BRUT
CHOMAGE
PRIX
Bloc revenu
Revenus non salariaux
Revenus salariaux
totaux
REVENU TOTAL
Revenus salariaux
par secteurs
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Regional model USA 71/6
(iv) Glickman's Philadelphia Model (The main block of the model)
Source: M. D. Espino, The impact of tourist exports on Florida's economy, Florida
State University, 1986, 51-54
Equations
(1)
Q1 = a1,1 + a1,2 USGNP + u1
(2)
Q2 = a2,1 + a2,2 PY + u2
(3)
Q3 = a3,1 + a3,2 PY + u3
(4)
GRP = Q1 + Q2 + Q3
(5)
I1 = a5,1 - a5,2 Kt-1 + a5,3 Q1 + a5,4 I1t-1 + u5
(6)
K1 = K1t-1 + I1 - D
(7)
E1 = a7,1 + a7,2 Q1 - TIME + u7
(8)
E2 = a8,1 + a8,2 Q2 +u8
(9)
E3 = a9,1 + a9,2 GRP + u9
(10)
TEMP = E1 + E2 + E3
(11)
MAW1 = a11,1 - a11,2 UNNO + a11,3 MAW1* + u11
(12)
MAW2 = a12,1 - a12,2 UNNO +a12,3 MAW2* + u12
(13)
MAW3 = a13,1 + a13,2 MAW3* + u13
(14)
P = a14,1 + a14,2
(15)
RAW1 =
MAW1
P
(16)
RAW2 =
MAW2
P
(17)
(18)
(19)
(20)
(21)
(22)
(23)
(24)
TWB
+ a14,3 TEMP + u14
GRP
MAW3
P
NWY = a18,1 + a18,2 GRP + u18
PY = RAW1 . E1 + RAW2 . E2 + RAW3 . E3 + NWY
LF = a20,1 + a20,2 TEMP + a20,3 TIME + u20
POP = a21,1 + a21,2 LF + a21,3 TIME + u21
UNNO = LF - TEMP
UNNO
UNR =
TEMP
C = a24,1 + a24,2 PY + u24
RAW3 =
6
General notation
zt-1
variable z lagged one period, z = K1, I1
ui
Equation error (stochastic variables), i∈{1, 2, …, 24}
Endogenous variables
C
Consumption
Ei
Number of employees in sector i (i=1,2,3)
GRP
Gross regional product (real)
I1
Investment in sector 1 (real)
K1
Capital stock in sector 1 (real)
LF
Labor force
MAWi
Average annual money wage in sector 1 (i=1,2,3)
P
Consumer price Index
PY
Personal Income
Qi
Output in sector i (real) (i=1,2,3)
RAWi
Real average annual wage in sector i (i=1,2,3)
TEMP
Total employment
UNNO
Number of unemployed in SMSA
UNR
Unemployment rate
NWY
Non-Wage income (real)
POP
Population
Exogenous variables
D
Depreciation (real)
MAWi*
Average annual money wage in sector i, U.S. (i=1,2,3)
TIME
Time variable
TWB
Total money wage bill
USGNP
United States gross national product (real)
(SPECIFICATION)