`Dealing with uncertainty in adapting water policy and management

‘Dealing with uncertainty in adapting water policy
and management to climate change’
Ad Jeuken
French Institute in Amsterdam, December 3, 2015
Deltares
https://www.deltares.nl/en/topdossiers/climate-adaptation/
Main questions
• Impacts of Climate (change)?
• Uncertainty in impacts
• Strategies to adapt under uncertainty
The five reasons for concern
2003-2012
4
Climate changes and water cycle
More /extreme
storms?
More/intense
rainfall
Spatial
developments
Sealevel rise
(… cm/100y)
Increased
erosion
Climate changes in a Delta
July 2013
Salt
intrusion
Subsidence
More summer
drought
Increased
river
discharge
Decreased
river
discharge
Number of great weather-related catastrophes 1950-2010
16
Meteorological events
(Storm)
Hydrological events
(Flood, mass
movement)
14
Climatological events
(Extreme temperature,
drought, forest fire)
12
10
8
6
4
2
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Munich Re GeoRisks Research, January 2011
Losses from large weather-related catastrophes 1980-2010
Overall losses
Insured losses [all 2010 values]
~82 billion (2001-10)
~26 billion (1980s)
Munich Re GeoRisks Research, August 2011
Can extreme events be attributed to human induced
CC (Wehner, Berkely)?
See: Pardeep Pall, Michael Wehner, Dáithí Stone (2014) Probabilistic Extreme Event Attribution
in Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events,
Richard Grojahn, Jianping Li, Richard Swinbank, Hans Volkert, editors. Cambridge University
Press. In press.
Events with likely human caused increased risk (Wehner, Berkely)?
Role of economic development
Miami Beach 1926
Wendler collection
Miami Beach 2006
Joel Gratz © 2006
Comparison: projected loss change in 2040
450
+170%
400
Loss change [%]
350
300
250
+30%
+15%
+65%
tropical storm
extra tropical
storm
flood
9 studies
6 studies
200
150
100
50
0
6 studies
socioeconomic
change
6 studies
Bouwer 2013, Risk Analysis
So every reason to adapt
FROM IPCC AR5:
Adaptation: The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate
and its effects.
In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or
exploit beneficial opportunities.
In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate
adjustment to expected climate and its effects.
As decision maker you are an active participant in
this process
The future is UNCERTAIN
Time’s up,
boys!
Man, that is an impressive
(climate)
model!
Source:http://www.ideachampions.com
Society and environment INTERACT
There always will be (Mal)ADAPTATION
REACTIVE OR PROACTIVE (strategy)
Typology of climate change impacts
We can distinguish three types of climate change impacts:
1. Gradual (example: sea level rise)
2. Stochastic effect (examples: increased storminess, more heavy rain
showers)
3. Tipping point (example: permafrost disappears)
Storminess in Europe: no trend visible
Sea level rise: clear trend
July 2013
Tipping point
Exercise 2 Thinking experiment: time series of
discharge
•
•
•
•
Real statistics of discharge
Ensemble projections
Mixed with and without CC
Think as a decision maker relying on:
• Monitoring
• Science
• Past experience defining critical level
Thinking experiment (1)
Given the uncertainties about the future, what would you do?
Yearly maximum Rhine river discharge at Lobith (m3/s)
20000
Relevant developments
The current cabinet came into force in 2010.
Policy focus and constraints have changed.
Critical value
Important
are the decentralisation of spatial
planning and environmental policy. The limited
financial conditions require prioritisation.
Safety first. Enough fresh water supply is
important for economy, society and the
environment.
Delta Programme 2012
18000
Yearly maximum discharge (m3/s)
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
year
Haasnoot et al. (2012) Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas
2070
2080
2090
2100
This was an experiment.
What would be different in reality?
• Science and institutes, projections
• International political, media context
• Observations, trends
POTENTIAL IMPACT
Stragies to cope with uncertainty
RESILIENT &
FLEXIBLE
ROBUST
STRATEGIES
FLEXIBLE
STRATEGIES
EFFICIENT
STRATEGIES
CONFIDENCE
Improve resilience
1 januari 2008
Many local private solution be alternative
for large scale infrastructure?
Many local solutions
Climate and global
Change
Could make a difference
Suitability map for local scale adaptation
Elevated building
1 januari 2008
What is Green Adaptation, Nature based solutions?
“Green Adaptation is using nature for your benefit where you can, and if that is not
possible, at least implementing traditional adaptation measures in an ecologically
optimized way.”
Green Adaptation approaches:
• Use ecosystem functions to enhance safety, food and
freshwater security, and protect livelihoods.
• Include, maintain and strengthen ecosystem functions in an
integrative approach to adapt to climate threats
• Combine ‘classic’ engineering know-how with site specific
natural components and inherent natural dynamics
4 december 2015
Green Adaptation approaches
Climate buffers
Flexible strategies: f.e. delta program NL
And reduce regret by combining investments:
f.e. Scheveningen boulevard
City of The Hague
Waterboard Delfland
Rijkswaterstaat
Province South Holland
7 November 2013
Floods
Spatial planning
Water supply
The Issues of Jakarta
Traffic
“too much, too little,
too dirty, too busy”
Catchment
Subsidence
Water quality
Solid waste
What are investment opportunities
outside dikes?
Coastal
Defense
Additional
Measures
Investment
Opportunities
Sea and
River
Dikes
Water
Supply
Land
Reclamation
Retention
Ponds
Sewerage
and
Waste
Toll
Roads
Pumping
Stations
Resettlement
Deep
Seaport
27
Thank you