Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in the Agriculture

Nations Unies
République
CentrAfricaine
Convention Cadre des
Nations Unies sur les
Changements
Climatiques
VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION
ASSESSMENT IN THE AGRICULTURE
SECTOR IN CENTRAL AFRICAN
REPUBLIC (CAR)
UNFCCC Adaptation Workshop
Accra, Ghana
21 – 23 September 2006
prepared by :
Patrice PASSE SANAND et
Dr Aline MALIBANGAR, CAR-NAPA Coordinator
presented by
Patrice PASSE SANAND, Expert Agriculture
Outline
Background
National Circumstances
Geography of Central African Republic in Brief
Vulnerability Assessment (in Agriculture sector)
under the NAPA Exercise – Studies and Gaps
Identification
Development Plans towards preparation of
Priorities options for adaptation
Outputs / Conclusion
Background
CAR ratified the UNFCCC in 1994
Submitted the INC in June 2003
Conduct the NAPA (Exercise) since
September 2004
Submitted project proposal for the SNC in
March 2006.
Approval in August 2006
Commencement of Project Execution
National Circumstances
Characteristic
1994
Location
Central Africa Sub-region
Total Area
623,00 Km2
Land Area
623,00 Km2
Population Estimate from (2004, RNP)
Population Growth Rate
3.895 137 Million
2.5
Adult Literacy (%)
42.0
Life Expectancy at Birth (Years)
42.0 (W) – 55 (M)
Share of Agriculture (%)
42.00
Share of Forestry (%)
35.00
Mining (%)
20.00
Human Development Index
0.1
Geography of CAR in Brief
Administrative Map of CAR
Examples of Rainfall & Mean Temperature evolution :
Birao (North -east) / Bambari (centre-south)
BIRAO: Fluctuation de la pluviométrie annuelle en
fonction des années
1 - BIRAO
1400
1200
1000
mm
800
600
Variation de la
pluviométrie annuelle
BIRAO: Pluviométrie mensuelle en 1994
400
200
200
0
1
4
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28
150
mm
Période de variation: 1961-1990
saison des pluies de
1994 Total annuel de
714 mm
100
50
Températures Maxi et mini absolues: BIRAO (1993)
0
1 2
50
7 8 9 10 11 12
1994: Janvier à décembre
40
T° Celcius
3 4 5 6
30
T° Maxi Absolues:
1993
20
t° mini absolues
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
janvier -décembre
Examples of Rainfall & Mean Temperature evolution :
Birao (North -east) / Bambari (centre-south)
BAMBARI-AERO: Fluctuation de la pluviométrie
annuelle en fonction des années
2 - BAMBARI
2500
mm
2000
1500
variation de la
pluviométrie annuelle
1000
BAMBARI-AERO: SAISON DES PLUIES
NORMALE (valeurs Normales sur 30 ans)
500
0
1
4
300,0
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28
250,0
Période de variation: 19963-1992
mm
200,0
Evolution Normale de
la pluviométrie dans
l'année
150,0
100,0
50,0
Temp. Maxi absolue et temp. mini absolue à
BAMBARI: 1993
0,0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Janv. à déce.: pluies mensuelles
moyennes (période: 1963-1992)
T° celcius
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Mois: janv -décembre
T°Maxi absolue
t° mini absolue
11
12
Development Plans towards preparation of
Priorities options for adaptation in Agriculture
sector at CAR (under the NAPA V&A Assessment process)
1 - CONTEXT
z
Why V&A assessment?
z
To meet the reporting commitment under the UNFCCC on :
z
z
z
z
z
But more importantly, to generate information and knowledge in
support of adaptation policy decisions
z
z
Vulnerability to present climatic variability and to climate change;
Vulnerable human systems, sectors and geographical zones
Difficulties or barriers to adaptation
Opportunities and priorities regarding adaptation
Africa is highly vulnerable to the various manifestations of projected
climate change (Desanker et al., 2001);
Results of V&A assessment can be used to leverage financial
resources for implementing adaptation measures (cont.)
“Projects supported by adaptation funds must demonstrate the
relevance of climate risk”
2 - CAR Agriculture sector Vulnerabilities
assessment (under the NAPA process)
a - Step of the studies
z
Objectives
z
z
z
z
Scope (sector + geographic area)
z
z
z
Determine CAR’s agriculture sector vulnerability to CC
Generate information
Identify appropriate adaptive responses
Agriculture sector is identify than vulnerable sector
So, we focalized our studies on specific areas should be linked with
socio-economic situation
Methodology
z
z
z
Expertise (consultations / Expert judgment)
Concertation (working groups) with the populations, local
communities and Deputy, NGOs…
NAPA guidelines (assessment Framework)
b - Climatic variabilities or climate Change scenario
applied regarding to the agriculture sector in CAR
z
SCENARIO 1: Increase generalized in rainfall, lengthening of the
rainy period with increase in the frequency of the weather
extremes (floods).
z
z
SCENARIO 2: Increase in rainfall in certain zones of the country,
not generalized lengthening of the rainy period, accompanied by
more intense dried seasons.
z
z
Probable in RCA: According to this scenario the changes would relate to the
increase in volumes of precipitation in all the areas of the country…
Probable in RCA: This scenario is also probable because the geo-climatic
conditions of the CAR, the exposure of the two slopes of the dorsal to the
unfavourable cyclonic currents.
SCENARIO 3: the frequency and the intensity of the dryness
increase and led to a larger aridification.
z
In this scenario the 3 (case observed during decades 80 and 90) dry periods
become persistent, frequent and intense. In this context, and if such a scenario
is accompanied by a reduction of the duration of the rainy periods
c - Agriculture sector vulnerability assessments :
Principals impacts
z
Some is the scenario applies, the agricultural sector in CAR
has a low capacity of adaptation to current climatic variabilities
and in the event of an abrupt climatic change, its vulnerability
will be more increased…
z
This vulnerability increase with:
z the low level current of the national economic growth in
comparison with the demographic growth,
z increased rural poverty,
z the insufficiency of the national capacities (expertises) in
the agricultural sector in connection with the rural
development,
z the low level of development of the rural infrastructures in
particular of communication and,
z bad governorship at the agricultural level sector, in
particular agricultural stock management
d- Materialisation of the Consequences of the Agriculture’s
sector vulnerabilities to climate change :
z
Precariousness and increase in the vulnerability of
the population principally women and children
z Nutritional and food deficit (reduction in food selfsufficiency)
z Health
z
Deceleration of the national and durable
development
z Drop and/or deceleration of the national economy
z
No durable mechanisms of rural development
1- Incidence on
food and total
poverty
Incidence de la pauvreté alimentaire et globale
90
80
70
% des ruraux pauvres
60
2. Regional
contribution to the
global poverty in
Contribution
CAR à la pauvreté rurale
50
Pauvreté alimentaire
Pauvreté globale
40
30
20
10
0
Région 1.
Plateaux
15%
16%
4%
Région 2.
Equateur
Région 3. Yadé
Région 1. Plateaux
Région 2. Equateur
17%
Région 3. Yadé
Région 4. Kagas
18%
Région 5. Fertit
Région 6. Oubangui
30%
Région 4.
Kagas
Région 5. Fertit
Région 6.
Oubangui
RCA rurale
Outputs…Principal Conclusions
1- lessons learned and best practices identified
z
z
To privilege the participative Approach and to imply the maximum of
actors all along the process including the validation and the
implementation of the priority options:
z Populations/NGOs/local Actors
z Decision makers (political)
z Private sector
z Institutions of research…
To target well (to focus) to it (or them) geographical (s) sensitizes area
(s)
2.remaining gaps, needs and concerns : Constraints
z
z
z
z
z
z
Insufficiency of the human and institutional capacities (resources)
Weak control of the tools (software)/Technical capacity
Insufficiency (lack) of data
Financial resources
Time
Insecurity!
3- Role of local, national, regional and international actors
z
Local and national
z
z
z
z
Population/NGOs: participation in the identification and in
the implementation of the priority actions
Decision makers (Political): support the integration of the
priority actions in the policies of national development
Private sector: Support with the financing (sponsoring)
Institution of research: Support with the improvement of
knowledge
z
Régional
z
Integration in the policies and regional projects common
z
International
z
Support the development of the priority actions and their
implementation on the short term…
4- Adaptation projects or practices
z
Only the priority projects related to a “risk” reality climatic of
the agricultural sector are taken into account:
z
Urgent and immediate actions (short term)
z Development of project documents
5- how can the UNFCCC process better facilitate
adaptation planning and implementation ?
1) To provide complementary financial ressources
2) To provide French user manuel or CD-ROM on V&A Assessment
for developing Countries
3) To organize regional Workshop / Training on V & A assessment
THANK YOU !
Our contact :
Programmes d’Action Nationaux d’Adaptation (PANA) - RCA
(CCUNCC)MINISTERE DES EAUX FORETS CHASSE ET PECHE CHARGE DE
L’ENVIRONNEMENT
Rue Ambassadeur R. Guérillot - B.P. 686 Bangui R.C.A. - ' : (236) 61 80 53
– 7 : (+236) 61.57.41 - Mobile :(+236) 50 41 24 –
E.mail : [email protected] / [email protected]