analyse coûts-avantages des options d`adaptation en
Transcription
analyse coûts-avantages des options d`adaptation en
VAN = | | ANALYSE COÛTS-AVANTAGES DES OPTIONS D’ADAPTATION EN ZONE CÔTIÈRE À CARLETON-SUR-MER Executive Summary March 2016 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This study was supported by the Economics Working Group of Canada’s Climate Change Adaptation Platform, chaired by Natural Resources Canada. It also received funding from Quebec’s Green Fund as part of the 2013–2020 Climate Change Action Plan. Many people contributed to this study, in particular Pascal Bernatchez and his team at the Laboratoire de dynamique et de gestion intégrée des zones côtières (LDGIZC) of Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR), who shared their experience and in-depth knowledge of hydrosedimentary processes of Quebec’s coasts and wave dynamics with Ouranos. We wish to thank the city of Carleton-surMer for the precious collaboration of the local committee members. In particular, we would like to acknowledge the invaluable assistance provided by Danick Boulay, Samuel Landry and Karl Leblanc. We would also like to acknowledge the contribution of the members of the various committees set up for the project. Among other things, their involvement helped to better understand and integrate the issues at stake within the study area: Josée Michaud (Climate Change Bureau), Nick Xenos (Natural Resources Canada), Jean-Pierre Revéret (UQAM), Adam Fenech (UPEI), Dominique Bérubé (UNB), Élizabeth Marceau (DFO), Graham Frank (Baird), Marcel Roussy (MAPAQ), Rénald Méthot (MAMOT), Jacinthe Girard (MDDELCC), Laurence Laperrière (MDDELCC), Jean-Denis Bouchard (MDDELCC), François Hazel (DFO), Michel Michaud (Transports Québec), Guylène Chouinard (Transports Québec), Hélène Latérière (MCC) et Paul Gingras (MRC La Mitis). Finally, we thank all the organizations and firms that provided essential data for this analysis, especially Pesca Environnement and W.F. Baird & Associates Coastal Engineers. ANALYSE COÛTS-AVANTAGES DES OPTIONS D’ADAPTATION EN ZONE CÔTIÈRE À CARLETON-SUR-MER PROJET : ÉVALUATION ÉCONOMIQUE DES RÉPERCUSSIONS DES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET ANALYSE COÛTS-AVANTAGES DES OPTIONS D’ADAPTATION EN ZONE CÔTIÈRE AU QUÉBEC Project director: Manon Circé, Ouranos Project delivery team: Laurent Da Silva, Ouranos Xavier Mercier, Ouranos Guillaume Duff, Ouranos François Morneau, Ouranos Claude Desjarlais, Ouranos Ursule Boyer-Villemaire, Ouranos Sylvie Corbeil, AECOM Travis Logan, Ouranos Main collaborators: Pascal Bernatchez, UQAR Steeve Dugas, UQAR City of Carleton-sur-Mer Jean-Pierre Savard, Ouranos Philippe Roy, Ouranos Editing and layout: Beatriz Osorio, Ouranos, and Katherine Pineault, Ouranos Translation: Heather Meek Project number: 540010-000 Suggested citation : Circé, M., Da Silva, L., Mercier, X., Boyer-Villemaire, U., Desjarlais, C. and Morneau, F. (2016) Analyse coûts-avantages des options d'adaptation en zone côtière à Carleton-sur-Mer. Ouranos, Montréal. 169 pages and appendices. (Report available in French only) March 2016 EXECUTIVE sUMMARY Few studies to date have focused on the economic assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation options for eastern Quebec’s coastal areas. A program of work was therefore initiated by the Economics Working Group of Canada’s Climate Change Adaptation Platform, chaired by Natural Resources Canada, to create economic knowledge and tools to help decisionmakers in Canada’s private and public sectors make better adaptation investment choices and policy decisions. Under this program of work, the research project Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Options targeted coastal areas of Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces. aimed to assess the economic impacts of erosion due to climate change in Quebec’s maritime regions and to analyze the costs and benefits of various adaptation options for coastal erosion and flooding. Five sites were subject to cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in this study: Carleton-sur-Mer, Percé, Îlesde-la-Madeleine, Maria and Kamouraska. This report focuses on the coastline of the city of Carleton-sur-Mer, in Chaleur Bay. Like many other coastal municipalities in Quebec, Carleton-sur-Mer is already experiencing significant climate change impacts, due to sea-level rise, milder winters, loss of ice cover in Chaleur bay and changes in The Quebec study was conducted by Ouranos storm patterns. Changes to these hydroclimatic and its primary research partner, the Laboratoire variables accelerate and amplify the hazards of de dynamique et de gestion intégrée des zones coastal erosion and flooding threatening the côtières (LDICZM) of Université du Québec land, buildings and infrastructures along the à Rimouski (UQAR), which has developed a coast. wealth of knowledge about coastal erosion and flooding in Quebec. The objectives of the study ANALYSE COÛTS - AVANTAGES DES OPTIONS D’ADAPTATION EN ZONE CÔTIÈRE À CARLETON-SUR-MER 1 mEthodologiCAL APPROACH The purpose of this study is to identify the most beneficial adaptation options for protecting Carleton-sur-Mer’s coastal area from the impacts of erosion and flooding hazards, which are increasing due to climate change. The study relies on future erosion projections provided by UQAR’s LDGIZC as well as extreme water level projections developed jointly by Ouranos and LDGIZC. avoided costs and from benefits related to the use of the coast. Benefits and costs of proposed adaptation options are discounted at 4% over the study period: 2015-2064. They are assessed from a regional perspective for the entire Gaspésie region. STUDY AREA Located in the Chaleur Bay, Carleton-sur-Mer The cost-benefit analysis (CBA) compares the covers a 244 km2 area in the MRC d’Avignon. The aggregated benefits and costs of technically current city arised from the fusion, in 2000, of feasible adaptation options, from an economic St-Omer and Carleton municipalities and has a point of view. The CBA relies on two indicators population of about 4,000. to compare the adaptation options to nonThe study area covers the coast between intervention: net present value (NPV) and costthe heart of St-Omer and the Caps de Maria, benefit ratio. on a total length of 29.9 km. It was divided The study provides an assessment of economic, into 8 segments according to the physical environmental and social impacts, as well characteristics of the coastline and land use. as the costs of adaptation options. These The segments were grouped in 3 sectors, include preliminary studies, construction namely Banc St-Omer, Berthelot-Éperlan and and maintenance costs. As for the benefits of Carleton Est. The boundaries of these sectors are adaptation options, most of them stem from identified in Figure A. 2 ANALYSE COÛTS - AVANTAGES DES OPTIONS D’ADAPTATION EN ZONE CÔTIÈRE À CARLETON-SUR-MER 1 2 3 Study sectors: 1 - Banc St-Omer 2 - Berthelot-Éperlan 3 - Carleton Est ± ± Figure A - Map of the study area and location of the 3 sectors under study adaptation OPTIONS The adaptation options studied were drawn from a study realised for Ouranos by W.F. Baird The adaptation options studied in Carleton& Associates Coastal Engineers (Baird). Taking sur-Mer include hard engineering structures into account the biophysical, geomorphological (rubblemounds, embankments, sea walls) and and oceanographic parameters of the Carletonsoft engineering structures (beach nourishment sur-Mer coast, Baird conducted a preliminary with or without groynes, beach nourishment identification of structures that could protect with bioengineering, vegetated sand dunes), the Carleton-sur-Mer coastline against 500-year as well as an option without coastal structures storm events. combining flood proofing and planned retreat when assets are affected by erosion, flooding or The main conclusions for each segment are both. presented below. ANALYSE COÛTS - AVANTAGES DES OPTIONS D’ADAPTATION EN ZONE CÔTIÈRE À CARLETON-SUR-MER 3 Banc St-Omer SectOr The first sector studied is Banc St-Omer, which covers a distance of 6.5 km from Route Leblanc to Route Beaulieu. It comprises three segments with widely differing coastal issues: Banc StOmer Ouest, Banc St-Omer Centre and Banc StOmer Est. The boundaries of these segments are identified in Figure B. marshland that is home to a diverse ecosystem of great ecological value. In fact, the St-Omer barachois or lagoon is an Environment Canada protected area. This area also attracts a large number of visitors who practice a wide range of recreational activities. The rear part of this segment, behind the lagoon, contains many homes and businesses in addition to the StOmer Local community service center (CLSC). Over the time horizon under study, a breach in the spit is expected to occur in 2017, increasing exposure of the buildings in the rear section to the risk of flooding (82 buildings over the study period) and erosion (1 building) hazards. This breach would imply the loss of the protected marshland and of visitor access to the spit. The westernmost segment, Banc St-Omer Ouest, is dominated by sand spits and low cliffs of unconsolidated sediment. Close to 90% of the coast is natural. It is expected that, over the next 50 years, 58% of the coast will be eroding, while 42% will be stable or in a slight state of accretion. A total of 80% of the coast will also be subject to flooding. A number of homes have If nothing is done, the CBA indicates anticipated structures to prevent erosion or embankments damages estimated at close to $5.9 million, against flooding. discounted at 4% over 50 years. Almost 62% The St-Omer sand bank protects a brackish of these costs are due to the loss of use of the WorldView-2©2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. Figure B- Boundaries of the 3 studied segments in the Banc St-Omer sector 4 ANALYSE COÛTS - AVANTAGES DES OPTIONS D’ADAPTATION EN ZONE CÔTIÈRE À CARLETON-SUR-MER spit and 28% to flooding damages. Among the adaptation options studied, beach nourishment with sand is the most advantageous, generating close to $2.7 million in benefits compared to non-intervention. Est, extends just under one kilometre from the Stewart River to Route Beaulieu. The coast here is quite low, and is mainly composed of beach terraces (58%) and low cliffs of unconsolidated sediment (29%). Even though homes in this segment are not exposed to short term erosion, The Banc St-Omer Centre segment, which is the probable future erosion rate, in addition to about 0.5 km long, is comprised between Rue the single-event retreat rate of the cliffs and Caissy and Stewart River. It is almost entirely beach terraces, will lead to damages over the composed of beach terraces, almost half of medium and long term. which are eroding. While there are few buildings in this segment, the entire coast is subject to The CBA points to total damages for this flooding episodes which could damage some segment of close to $160,000, discounted at buildings. In this segment, damages from 4% over 50 years. Erosion, which will affect coastal hazards are estimated to about $724,000 three buildings, is responsible for just over 90% over a 50 years period. Close to 88% of these of these damages. Planned retreat is the most damages are due to flooding. Flood proofing beneficial adaptation option for this segment, combined with planned retreat constitutes the although once again the difference between most advantageous adaptation option for this the NPV of this option and that of the nonsegment, although its benefit compared to non- intervention option is low. intervention is low, at just over $20,000. Figure C presents the CBA results for all options The last segment in this sector, Banc St-Omer studied in the Banc St-Omer sector. ANALYSE COÛTS - AVANTAGES DES OPTIONS D’ADAPTATION EN ZONE CÔTIÈRE À CARLETON-SUR-MER 5 Millions $6.0 $5.0 $4.0 $3.0 $2.0 $1.0 $0.0 ($1.0) ($2.0) ($3.0) ($4.0) 2.5 2.06 2.01 $2.66 $2.59 $1.91 Beach replenishment with groynes Banc St-Omer Centre Millions 1.55 $4.0 Beach replenishment with bioengineering 1.5 $0.08 $3.0 $2.0 $1.0 $0.02 $0.0 ($2.0) ($1.32) ($3.0) 0.33 Rubblemound revetment Flood proofing and planned retreat 0.0 1.50 Legend 1.00 Net advantage compared to non-intervention ($1.0) 0.50 Flood proofing and planned retreat Benefit/Cost Ratio 0.00 Banc St-Omer Est Millions 1.0 2.00 1.78 ($4.0) 2.00 $4.0 $3.0 $2.0 1.17 $1.0 $0.02 $0.0 1.50 1.00 ($1.0) ($2.0) ($3.0) ($4.0) ($1.75) 0.08 ($2.12) 0.07 ($1.45) 0.1 Rubblemound revetment Beach replenishment Beach replenishment with groynes B/C Ratio Net advantage compared to NI 2.0 0.5 Beach replenishment Net advantage compared to NI 1.59 B/C Ratio Net advantage compared to NI Banc St-Omer Ouest 0.50 0.00 Planned retreat Figure C - Net present value and benefit-cost ratio of each adaptation option under study per segment 6 ANALYSE COÛTS - AVANTAGES DES OPTIONS D’ADAPTATION EN ZONE CÔTIÈRE À CARLETON-SUR-MER Berthelot-Éperlan SectOr This sector extends for 1.4 km between Rue Berthelot and Rue Landry, all the way to the point where the latter reaches the coast. The rail corridor was excluded from the study, as any intervention to protect this segment should be part of efforts to rehabilitate the entire railway. This sector includes two segments, Rue Berthelot and Ruisseau de l’Éperlan, whose boundaries are identified in Figure D. WorldView-2©2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. Figure D - Boundaries of the 2 segments studied in the Berthelot-Éperlan sector The Rue Berthelot segment is bounded by Route 132 and the railway. Composed of low unconsolidated sediment cliffs, it is a residential area protected by a several metres high rubblemound in good condition. This rubblemound has slowed down coastal erosion, but at the cost of beach loss. Storm waves strike the protective structures with great force, which could eventually cause their collapse. Over the next 50 years, erosion threatens 7 of the segment’s 11 homes, but no building is vulnerable to flooding. According to the CBA results, damages in this segment would amount to close to $200,000, 14% of which would be linked to the physical loss of land while 54% would be due to the demolition of 3 homes. In this segment, the non-intervention option requires protecting the access route from Highway 132 to Rue Berthelot for the street’s residents. Non-intervention is ANALYSE COÛTS - AVANTAGES DES OPTIONS D’ADAPTATION EN ZONE CÔTIÈRE À CARLETON-SUR-MER 7 the least costly option, as planned retreat costs exceeds those of losing the homes exposed to erosion over the next 50 years. have been set up along the top of the cliff to the west of the stream, while to the east there are primary residences exposed to erosion. For this segment, the CBA indicates that discounted The Ruisseau de l’Éperlan segment extends over damages over the next 50 years would total almost 1 km between Chemin de la Mer and approximately $300,000. As is the case for the Rue Landry. The stream’s delta lies in the centre Rue Berthelot segment, all adaptation options of the segment, bordered by a beach terrace studied for the Ruisseau de l’Éperlan segment and flanked on either side by unconsolidated are more costly than non-intervention. sediment cliffs. With a retreat rate between -0.24 and -0.35 m per year, this segment is at Figure E presents the CBA results for the risk of erosion and two-thirds of its coast is adaptation options studied in the Rue Berthelot artificialized. A number of cottages and trailers and Ruisseau de l’Éperlan segments. Millions 1.00 $0.0 Legend ($0.42) ($1.0) ($2.0) ($2.05) 0.50 0.29 B/C Ratio Net advantage compared to NI Rue Berthelot Net advantage compared to non-intervention Benefit/Cost Ratio ($3.0) 0.08 ($4.0) Rubblemound revetment Planned retreat 0.00 Millions 1.00 $0.0 ($0.26) ($1.0) 0.49 ($2.0) ($3.0) ($2.67) 0.1 ($2.66) 0.1 ($2.60) 0.1 Rubblemound revetment Beach replenishment Beach replenishment with groynes ($4.0) Planned retreat 0.50 B/C Ratio Net advantage compared to NI Ruisseau de l’Éperlan 0.00 Figure E - Net present value compared to non-intervention and benefit-cost ratio of each adaptation option under study per segment 8 ANALYSE COÛTS - AVANTAGES DES OPTIONS D’ADAPTATION EN ZONE CÔTIÈRE À CARLETON-SUR-MER Carleton Est SectOR To the west, the Plage municipale segment runs close to a kilometre from Rue de la Gare The Carleton Est sector covers a stretch of more to the Carleton wharf. Carleton’s municipal than 10.6 km in the heart of the city of Carletonbeach is located on a spit and is historically sur-Mer, and contains the most important under accretion, nourished by sediments services and infrastructures. This sector includes from Ruisseau de l’Éperlan and the nearby three segments with very different coastal unconsolidated sedimentary cliffs. However, the dynamics: Plage municipale, Pédoncule and last 200 m of beach before the wharf are eroding Caps de Maria. Figure F identifies the boundaries (-0.21 m/year) and the section before the wharf of each segment. is artificialized. WorldView-2©2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. Figure 6.6 - Boundaries of the 3 segments studied in the Carleton Est sector This segment experiences problems with flooding caused by direct surges along the waterfront and breaking waves to the east of the wharf. Over a period of 50 years, some thirty buildings and infrastructures in the western part of the segment will be affected by flooding events. The road leading to the Carleton wharf is also subject to flooding, but the episodes are not long enough to lead to economic losses by compromising the activities that depend on wharf access. According to the CBA results, the cost of inaction on the time horizon under consideration would amount to $6.1 million, 74% of which would be damages associated with flooding. Among the ANALYSE COÛTS - AVANTAGES DES OPTIONS D’ADAPTATION EN ZONE CÔTIÈRE À CARLETON-SUR-MER 9 adaptation options studied for this segment, flood proofing of buildings proves to be the most advantageous, producing a net benefit of $1.85 million compared to non-intervention. the most advantageous option, providing a net benefit of just over $1.24 million. The Caps de Maria segment stretches on 5.4 km from Avenue du Phare to Auberge des Caps. Located on the municipal campground sand It is essentially composed of unconsolidated spit that shelters the Carleton lagoon, the sediment cliffs some 20 to 30 m in height, which Pédoncule segment extends for 1 km from the are eroding at a rate varying between -0.28 m start of the neck of the spit (thinnest section at and -0.69 m per year. The resulting sediment the landward end of the spit) to the curve in the contributes to replenishing the Carleton lagoon campground road. To protect it from the erosion sand spit. This segment is therefore essential for and flooding hazards during storms, two-third slowing down the creation of a breach in the of the segment has been artificialized, mainly by neck of the spit in the Pédoncule segment. rubblemound and wooden sea walls. Despite Over the time horizon under study, erosion is the sediment contribution from the capes of expected to lead to the loss of a strip of land 14 Maria, the coastal dynamic in this location does to 35 metres wide, which will affect some thirty not allow accumulation. homes located at the top of the cliffs. Despite If nothing is done, erosion could cut through these potential losses, the CBA results indicate the neck of the spit by around 2040, preventing that non-intervention constitutes the least road access to the campground and resulting costly option for this segment with discounted in the loss of camping-related revenues. The costs evaluated at around $1.54 million. Planned results of the CBA show that the damages retreat in this location would involve additional associated with inaction, discounted at 4%, costs of $1.37 million. would amount to $3.25 million over 50 years in Figure G presents the results of the CBA for all this segment. Among the adaptation options adaptation options studied in the Carleton Est studied, beach nourishment with groynes is sector. 10 ANALYSE COÛTS - AVANTAGES DES OPTIONS D’ADAPTATION EN ZONE CÔTIÈRE À CARLETON-SUR-MER Millions $4.0 $3.0 $1.0 1.50 1.25 0.91 $0.0 ($2.0) 1.75 $1.90 $2.0 ($1.0) 2.00 1.68 1.00 0.75 ($0.61) 0.50 0.25 ($3.0) 0.00 ($4.0) Multiple protections Millions $4.0 1.63 $3.0 $2.0 $1.24 $1.0 0.53 ($1.0) 0.50 ($2.83) Road flood proofing with higher seawall Caps de Maria Ouest Millions 1.50 1.00 $0.21 ($2.0) ($4.0) 2.00 1.07 $0.0 ($3.0) 0.00 Beach replenishment Beach replenishment with groynes 2.00 $4.0 $3.0 1.50 $2.0 $1.0 $0.0 ($1.0) ($2.0) ($3.0) ($1.37) 0.49 1.00 0.50 0.00 ($4.0) B/C Ratio Net advantage compared to NI Flood proofing B/C Ratio Net advantage compared to NI Pédoncule B/C Ratio Net advantage compared to NI Plage municipale Legend Net advantage compared to non-intervention Benefit/Cost Ratio Planned retreat Figure G - Net present value compared to non-intervention and benefit-cost ratio of each adaptation option under study per segment ANALYSE COÛTS - AVANTAGES DES OPTIONS D’ADAPTATION EN ZONE CÔTIÈRE À CARLETON-SUR-MER 11 Conclusion The purpose of this cost-benefit analysis is to help decision makers to select the most beneficial adaptation options for avoiding damages to the Carleton-sur-Mer coast, by comparing the economic costs and benefits over a time horizon of 50 years. Figure H shows the net present value of the most advantageous option in comparison with non-intervention for each of the 8 segments under study. For 3 segments, Rue Berthelot, Ruisseau de l’Éperlan and Caps de Maria, the non-intervention option constitutes the most economically viable option. For the Banc StOmer Ouest, Plage municipale and Pédoncule segments, the implementation of different options, namely beach nourishment, flood proofing of buildings and beach nourishment with groynes respectively, is clearly preferable to non-intervention. For the Banc St-Omer Centre and Banc St-Omer Est segments, the net benefits of the most advantageous option (flood proofing and/or planned retreat) over non-intervention are so low that no clear 12 conclusion can be drawn as to the option to favour economically. The CBA results are primarily influenced by the extent of expected damages, the value of the land and properties in need of protection, the use of the coast, and by the costs of the proposed adaptation options over the time horizon. Along the Carleton-sur-Mer coastline, the implementation cost of hard engineering structures is appreciably higher than the value of the expected damages, rendering such options unjustified from an economic point of view. For the Banc St-Omer Ouest and Pédoncule segments, where the use value of the coast is high, soft engineering structures that preserve this value are the most beneficial. In cases where value of the land and buildings affected by coastal hazards is relatively high, as is the case for the Plage municipale segment and, to a lesser extent, the Banc St-Omer Centre and Banc St-Omer Est segments, planned retreat combined to flood proofing appears to be more advantageous than inaction for society as a whole. ANALYSE COÛTS - AVANTAGES DES OPTIONS D’ADAPTATION EN ZONE CÔTIÈRE À CARLETON-SUR-MER ANALYSE COÛTS - AVANTAGES DES OPTIONS D’ADAPTATION EN ZONE CÔTIÈRE À CARLETON-SUR-MER 13 Millions Banc St-Omer Ouest $2.66 Banc St-Omer Centre $0.02 Banc St-Omer Est $0.02 Rue Berthelot ($0.42) Ruisseau de Plage municipale l'Éperlan ($0.26) $1.90 Pédoncule $1.24 Caps de Maria ($1.37) FP, PR or FPPR BRG BR Figure H - Net present value of the most advantageous option compared to non-intervention Legend: BR= Beach replenishment, BRG= Beach replenishment with groynes, FP= Flood proofing, PR= Planned retreat, FPPR= FP+RP ($2.0) ($1.5) ($1.0) ($0.5) $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 LIST OF ACRONYMS CBA: Cost-benefit analysis CC: Climate change LDGIZC: Laboratoire de dynamique et de gestion intégrée des zones côtières MAMOT: Ministère des Affaires municipales et de l’Occupation du territoire MAPAQ: Ministère de l’Agriculture, des Pêcheries et de l’Alimentation du Québec MCC: Ministère de la Culture et des Communications MDDELCC: Ministère du Développement durable, de l’Environnement et de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques DFO: Department of Fisheries and Oceans MRC: Municipalité régionale de comté UNB: University of New Brunswick UPEI: University of Prince Edward Island UQAM: Université du Québec à Montréal UQAR: Université du Québec à Rimouski NPV: Net present value