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2014 CHANGEOVER COUNTDOWN
Merkel and Schulz
joining forces?
Member States in exchange for financial
support in terms of bail-out funds.
However, the Social Democrats (SPD) know
that a “grand coalition” with Ms. Merkel’s
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is unpopular
among their supporters and are pushing a leftwing agenda to ensure support from their SPD
base. On top of that, the SPD is letting its
470,000 members vote on whether to approve
a coalition contract, and is flirting with the idea
of forming a “red” coalition with Die Linke (The
Left) and the Greens as an alternative.
25/11/2013
There are some interesting dynamics at play
amongst the European institutions, especially
as concerns the appointment of the European
Commission president. The 2009 Lisbon treaty
has given more powers to the European
Parliament (EP). However, at the same time,
the economic crisis seems to have in many
ways reinforced the power of the European
Member States and the European Council - or,
to be more precise, it has strengthened the
position of its biggest Member State,
Germany.
This tactic aimed at putting pressure on the
CDU, has had partial success. News of coalition
negotiation compromises all seem to be going
the SPD’s way. These include the introduction
of a federal minimum wage, and the lowering
of the German pension age (now at 67) to 63
for certain groups. At the same time, the SPD’s
hard bargaining means the coalition talks have
been progressing painfully slowly, with the
target date of 27 November for agreement
seeming increasingly unlikely to be met. There
is also the chance that the CDU concessions
will not be enough to appease the SPD
grassroots supporters raising the spectre of
failed negotiations and months of political
paralysis and perhaps new elections. As well as
being bad news for Germany, this would be
most unwelcome in the rest of Europe.
After winning a third term with a record
number of votes, Angela Merkel - who will
probably soon be in coalition government with
Germany's second-biggest party, the Social
Democrats (SPD) - is, to quote The Economist,
“Europe's dominant politician.” But how will
Ms. Merkel use this authority in Europe and
will this influence the “power balance”
between the European Institutions? These
questions are especially relevant with an eye
on the upcoming European elections and the
ensuing formation of the new European
Commission, where many people envisage the
European Parliament playing a much bigger
role than before.
According to Der Spiegel, Ms. Merkel is
convinced that she is currently in a position to
reform the European Union – a project that
she hopes will cement her political legacy. She
intends to do this by continuing with her
controversial policy of demanding reforms of
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2014 CHANGEOVER COUNTDOWN
Art. 17.7 of the Lisbon treaty
For now, however, the most likely scenario
remains a CDU/SPD compromise. On the EUlevel this will probably lead to spending more
on growth programmes and additional powers
for Brussels, although no ground-breaking
initiatives should be expected here.
Nonetheless, these European policies are
controversial even within the CDU.
Ms. Merkel’s possible support for Mr. Schulz is
the latest twist in the lead up to the “election”
of the European Commission president. Under
the Lisbon Treaty Article 17.7, the European
Council must, for the first time, “take into
account” the European Parliament election
results when proposing a candidate for
European
Commission
president.
The
European Parliament will then appoint the
European Commission president proposed by
the Council by a majority of its component
members. If the candidate does not obtain the
required majority, the European Council has to
propose a new candidate within one month.
Ms. Merkel therefore needs an ally. The
Chancellor could have found this person in
European Parliament president, Martin Schulz
- the Party of European Socialists (PES)
candidate for the European Commission
presidency. Mr. Schulz is also chairing the
group discussing European policy in the
coalition negotiations with the Christian
Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister
party the Christian Social Union (CSU).
Although Mr. Schulz denies that the European
Commission president job is on the agenda
during the coalition negotiations, some say a
deal on this could end up being part of the
final coalition agreement. This is a highly
plausible theory, since both parties agree on
an agenda based on austerity and growth.
However, is it possible to envisage Ms. Merkel
supporting a Commission president candidate
ahead of the European Parliament elections,
who is not from her political family, the
European People’s Party (EPP)? Perhaps we
will have to await the outcome of the
elections before the battle lines really become
clear.
The exact meaning of “take into account”
remains unclear, but many, including Mr.
Schulz, foresee a significant role for the
European Parliament in the selection process.
Building upon this idea, the European
Commission has recommended that European
political groups nominate a candidate for the
Commission presidency. From its side, the
Parliament adopted a Resolution in July this
year calling on European political parties to put
forward their candidates early enough for
them to conduct a Europe-wide campaign and
to hold public debates with other nominees.
This non-binding Resolution also includes the
expectation that the European Council will first
consider the candidate from the party with the
most seats in the European Parliament.
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2014 CHANGEOVER COUNTDOWN
The Party of
PES Candidate
European
Martin Schulz,
Socialists (PES),
president of the
the
second
European Parliament
European party
in number of
seats in the current European Parliament, has
responded more willingly to the European
Commission proposal and will propose its
candidate during a Congress in February 2014.
The European Parliament's PES leader and
current EP president, Mr. Schulz, is certain to
be elected, as he was unopposed in the
selection procedure.
The party candidates –
the EPP not willing to nominate
The main contender for becoming the biggest
party in May next year is without a doubt the
centre-right European People's Party. The EPP
has said it will announce its candidate for the
European Commission presidency at a
conference in Dublin on 6-7 March 2014, but
things seem to be more complicated than they
appear. First of all many possible EPP
candidates [see box] are currently in public
office. It remains to be seen if they would give
up their current position, simply to become a
“candidate”.
Moreover,
many
leading
European
conservatives
are
against
nominating a candidate, with European
Council president, Herman Van Rompuy,
saying it is “not the panacea for Europe’s
credibility woes”. Even more importantly, as
indicated above, it could be that Chancellor
Merkel wants to keep some room for
manoeuvre to select her own candidate.
-
The third
Possible ALDE Candidates
and fourth
- Guy Verhofstadt, the
parties in
leader of the ALDE group
the current
- Olli Rehn, EC vice president
European
in charge of economic and
Parliament,
monetary affairs
the Liberal
ALDE party,
and the Greens, are very unlikely to win the
elections (at least in an absolute sense), but
appear most enthusiastic about nominating a
candidate. ALDE will announce its candidate at
a special Electoral Congress on 1 February
2014, in Brussels. It is likely that Mr. Guy
Verhofstadt, the leader of the ALDE group in
the European
Parliament, will
seek
nomination. Mr. Olli Rehn, the European
Commission's Vice president in charge of
economic and monetary affairs, could also
possibly be in the running. Meanwhile, the
Greens are organising an open Europe-wide
Online Primary to select their two leading
candidates for the post of Commission
president in the 2014 European Elections.
Possible EPP Candidates
Manuel Barroso, current EC
president
Dalia Grybauskaitė, President of
Lithuania
Donald Tusk, PM of Poland
Fredrik Reinfeldt, PM of Sweden,
Jyrki Katainen, PM of Finland
Enda Kenny, PM of Ireland
Valdis Dombrovskis, PM of Latvia
Christine Lagarde, IMF managing
director
Commissioner Viviane Reding (DG
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2014 CHANGEOVER COUNTDOWN
could possibly support a centre-left candidate.
Potential candidates include MEPs, Mr. José
Bové (France), Ms. Rebecca Harms, (UK) and
Ms. Ska Keller (Germany), and former MEP,
Ms. Monica Frassoni (Italy).
-
What is more, Eurosceptic parties may well
win over 20% of the vote in next year’s
European elections, making finding a majority
for the Commission president candidate inside
the Parliament very difficult.
Possible The Greens
Candidates
José Bové, MEP
Rebecca Harms, MEP
Ska Keller, MEP
Monica Frassoni, Italian
politician, former MEP
Will this mean that the idea of European
parties nominating a candidate for the
European Commission presidency is destined
to fail? Not necessarily. Apart from the EPP,
the biggest European parties have endorsed
Article 17.7. Moreover, the rise of Eurosceptic
parties could convince many that a further
democratisation of Europe is urgently needed
to counter the often heard criticism that the
EU suffers from a democratic deficit.
"Other complications"
How likely is it that the candidate from the
most successful political group in the 2014
European Parliament elections will in fact
succeed Mr. Barosso? In reality, it seems far
from certain. Ms. Merkel’s desire to keep her
options open and a lack of enthusiasm on the
part of the EPP to nominate a candidate, are
not the only factors that must be taken into
account.
On the other hand, it is doubtful if this
consideration will outweigh the scepticism of
the European government leaders, and Ms.
Merkel in particular, about ceding the power
to appoint Commission presidents to MEPs.
Watch this space!
Another problem could be the lack of a clear
political majority in terms of governments
inside the European Council. The new Czech
government most likely will be Social
Democrat, and the ALDE government leaders
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