de Matthieu Glachant

L'innova(on et la course aux technologies vertes entre l'Europe et les pays en développement Ma;hieu Glachant, MINES ParisTech IDDRI, 16 juin 2014 Contenu •  Peut-­‐on gagner la « green race » ? –  Dans un contexte de globalisa(on économique avec notamment une concurrence grandissante des pays émergents •  Avec quelles poli(ques publiques ? •  Focus sur les technologies de réduc(on des GHG •  Fondé sur des travaux menés depuis 7-­‐8 ans Les travaux du CERNA Sur les technos vertes en général •  Promo(ng the Interna(onal Transfer of Low-­‐Carbon Technologies: Evidence and Policy Challenges, 2013, rapport pour le HCSP (ex CAS) •  Greening Global Value Chains: Innova(on and the Interna(onal Diffusion of Technologies and Knowledge, May 2013 , World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6467 •  What drives the interna(onal transfer of climate change mi(ga(on technologies? Empirical evidence from patent data. Environmental and Resource Economics 2013 •  Inven(on and transfer of climate change mi(ga(on technologies: A global analysis, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy; 2011 •  L'innova(on technologique face au changement clima(que : quelle est la place de la France ? Economie et Prévision, à paraître Sur les renouvelables •  Innova(on and interna(onal technology transfer: The case of the Chinese photovoltaic industry", Energy Policy 2011 •  Predic(ng the costs of photovoltaic solar modules in 2020 using experience curve models, Energy 2013 •  Does foreign environmental policy influence domes(c innova(on? Evidence from the wind industry. Environmental and Resource Economics 2013 •  How do solar photovoltaic feed-­‐in tariffs interact with solar panel and module prices?” Energy Economics, forthcoming •  Wind Power : A Model of Successful Policy ?, World Energy Monitor 2012 Sur le MDP •  Projects mechanisms and technology diffusion in climate policy", Environmental and Resource Economics, 2011 •  Technology transfer by CDM projects: a comparison of Brazil, China, India and Mexico", Energy Policy, 2009 •  The Clean Development Mechanism and the interna(onal diffusion of technologies: An empirical study", Energy Policy 2008 Plan •  La croissance verte ? •  Comment avoir accès aux technos vertes ? 1. 
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Les transferts interna(onaux de technologies L’innova(on Le « learning-­‐by-­‐searching » Le « learning-­‐by doing » •  Conclusions La croissance verte Deux ques(ons 1.  Microéconomique –  Quelles perspec(ves de croissance des secteurs verts ? 2.  Macroéconomique : –  La croissance des secteurs verts compense-­‐t-­‐elle l’impact néga(f sur les secteurs non verts ? •  Aujourd’hui, une perspec(ve micro-­‐économique sur les technologies vertes The channel of technology transfer Capital good exports Foreign Direct Investments Reverse Reverse engineering engineering Labor circulaHon joint-­‐ventures Licensing QuanHty of knowledge Reverse engineering Reverse engineering Labor circulaHon Labor circulaHon Local partner opportunism Customer opportunism Three indicators to quan(fy tech transfer DefiniHon Patent Volume of patents filed in the recipient country by inventors located in the source country InternaHonal trade Volume of bilateral trade of low-­‐carbon equipment goods Foreign direct Count of capital links between a source company owning at investment + JV least one low-­‐carbon patent and a company located in the recipient country Reference: Glachant, Dussaux, Ménière, Dechezleprêtre (2013) “Promo(ng the Interna(onal Transfer of Low-­‐Carbon Technologies: Empirical Evidence and Policy Challenges”, report for the French Centre for Strategic Analysis The geography of climate tech diffusion OECD 16-­‐30% 1-­‐10% 55-­‐75% OECD Non OECD 2-­‐14% Non OECD Tech transfer towards the major emerging economies Country Patents Equipment goods FDI links Economy size (2009 GDP) China 15.5% 8.3% 7.1% 11.1% Mexico 2.2% 1.7% 2.5% 2.2% Russia 1.3% 1.4% 2.2% 3.3% South Africa 1.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% India n.a. 1.5% 1.6% 4.9% Brazil 0.7% 0.7% 2.5% 2.9% Imports of low-­‐carbon patent flows, capital goods and direct investments in selected emerging economies as a share of world imports (2007–2009) Message 2: Major emerging economies are already connected to interna(onal technology flows. But LDCs are not. Policy instruments •  Environmental policies •  Technological capacity building •  Intellectual Property (IPR) •  Barriers to trade and FDI •  The Clean Development Mechanism •  Business-­‐led ini(a(ves •  Interna(onal agreements Ques(on: •  How effec(ve are they in promo(ng tech transfer? Method •  A review of the economic and policy literature Key messages The need to dis(nguish industrialized countries, emerging economies and least-­‐developed countries 1.  Industrialized countries / emerging economies – 
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Crea(ng demand at home with ambi(ous environmental policies properly enforced to foster innova(on Pushing further the integra(on in the global green economy to increase technology transfer Strengthening intellectual property rights, lowering barriers to trade and FDI, improving technological absorp(ve capaci(es 2.  Least Developed countries –  The lack of technological absorp(ve capaci(es is THE PROBLEM –  Strengthening intellectual property rights, lowering barriers to trade and FDI is likely to ineffec(ve Strengthening IP rights to boost tech transfer? Not possible to conclude with theore(cal arguments •  IPR confer legal exclusivity –  The inventor can use his market power to raise price barriers. •  IPR are property rights –  facilitate tech diffusion in markets (licensing) •  Paten(ng requires to publicly disclose informa(on on the technology –  Contrary to industrial secrecy • 
Patents pose problems in certain sectors – 
Informa(on technology Hence an empirical ques(on… Results of empirical studies •  Strict IPR increase tech transfer in countries with technological absorp(ve capabili(es –  Includes many emerging economies •  The impact is uncertain in others –  Developing countries •  Why? –  Because there exists sufficient compe((on between green technologies •  May not be true in the future for all technologies and in all sectors –  Smartgrids ? Plan •  Un point sur la croissance verte •  Comment avoir accès aux technos vertes ? 1.  Les transferts interna(onaux de technologies 2.  L’innova(on –  Le « learning-­‐by-­‐searching » –  Le « learning-­‐by doing » •  Conclusions « Learning by searching » Climate-­‐friendly patented inven(ons (2007 – 2009) Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total top 10 18 21 22 25 31 Country USA Germany Japan South Korea France UK Italy Canada China The Netherlands Taiwan India Russia Brazil South Africa Share of world climate patented invenHons (2007-­‐2009)* 19.0% 18.7% 17.5% 5.6% 4.8% 3.6% 3.4% 2.7% 1.7% 1.6% 78.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% Emerging economies hardly innovate through learning by searching « Wind innova(on and foreign regula(on » ERE 2013 •  Une étude économétrique sur l’impact des poli(ques publiques sur l’innova(on –  Technology push = R&D publique –  Demand-­‐pull = sou(en à l’installa(on de capacités de produc(on (tarifs de rachat…) •  Ces poli(ques profitent-­‐elles aux innovateurs étrangers? Impact of 1 million USD on innova(on Effect of 1 million USD spent on:
New capaciHes
Public R&D expenditures
Home
0.04 -­‐ 0.05 inven(on
0.67 – 0.86 inven(on
Abroad
0.02 – 0.04 inven(on
0
Global
0.06 – 0.09 inven(on
0.67 – 0.86 inven(on
Message : Préférons le « tech push » Learning-­‐by-­‐doing Perspec(ves de réduc(on du coût éolien et photovoltaïque à l’horizon 2030 A qui profite le learning-­‐by-­‐doing ? •  Exemple : La filière photovoltaïque Silicon
Wafers /
Ingots
PV Cells
PV Modules
Systems
Installation
Electricity
generation
Ancillary Equip
(inverters, batteries)
Global Local Message : Dépend du poids du commerce interna(onal Conclusions •  Nous avons peu d’avantages compara(fs sur la ligne de départ •  Pour bénéficier des transferts de technologies, promouvons la globalisa(on économique et le respect des droits de propriété chez nous et chez nos partenaires •  Misons sur le learning-­‐by-­‐searching avec des poli(ques de sou(en direct à l’innova(on –  Intérêt économique sans doute limité d’être pionnier sur les poli(ques environnementales (demand-­‐pull) •  Misons sur le déploiement des nouvelles technos pour générer du learning-­‐by-­‐doing seulement quahnd le commerce interna(onal est limité –  L’éolien, pas le PV •  Une poli(que industrielle verte transna(onale ? 21
CERNA Technology and Climate Change research programme Reports and papers available here: h;p://www.cerna.ensmp.fr/index.php/fr/recherche/
technology-­‐and-­‐climate-­‐change-­‐research-­‐programme