ECO501: Applied Economics Project (2016

Transcription

ECO501: Applied Economics Project (2016-2017)
Coordinators: Yukio KORIYAMA ([email protected])
Alessandro RIBONI ([email protected])
In order to complement theoretical knowledge acquired during the courses, Project
ECO501 provides students opportunities to work on a topic in applied economics, with some
empirical ingredients or applied economic theory. Students work in a group of two or three
members, and they will be graded during an oral exam in March 2017. A written report
should be submitted a week before the oral exam. The academic tutor is supposed to
provide a topic, and meet the students at the beginning to help starting the project, and
expected to be available for a help from October to March. The list of topics will be provided
at the end of September. The allocation of the students will be on the first-come-first-serve
basis.
Timeline:
-
End of September 2016: announcement of the subject list by the Dept.
October 3rd to 7th, 2016: registration, beginning of work
December 9th, 2016: deadline for submission of a mid-term report
February 27th to March 3rd, 2017: deadline for the final report
March 6th to 10th, 2017: oral exam
Zipf's law for cities: an empirical investigation
Supervisor: Amine OUAZAD ([email protected])
One of the most striking features of city size is that it follows a law, called Zipf's law: there is
a linear relationship between the log population of a city and the log of its rank in the city
population distribution. Zipf's law is the static version of the law for city growth called
Gibrat's Law. The project involves testing Zipf's law, finding deviations from Zipf's law,
solving the differential equation of Gibrat's law and testing Gibrat's law. A more ambitious
goal is to find microfoundations for Zipf's law. What kind of neighborhood growth generates
aggregate growth that follows Gibrat's and Zipf's law?
Atmospheric pollution and urbanization
Do cities pollute their way to growth? Recent fine-grained and high-frequency satellite data
from Google's data lab will allow us to observed whether the growth of cities always
coincides with a rise in atmospheric particle pollution. We will match demographic data from
national censuses and raster satellite data to correlate the two layers to identify (i) which
cities and which growth policies lead to pollution (ii) are cities that pollute more also grow
more?
Supply constraints and real estate prices in France
It is well-established in economics that demand shocks lead to price rises when supply is
inelastic. In housing, while some authors (Saiz 2008) claim that less supply elastic cities saw
larger increases in house prices in the US, the relationship has not been documented in
France. We will work on measuring supply elasticity in French cities and test the principles of
housing demand and supply to the real estate market. The project will have implications for
wealth inequality, social mobility, and public policies.
House prices and the valuation of local amenities
What is the impact of local amenities (a good school, low crime, retail) on house prices? Yelp
recently released an exciting dataset with geocoded retail data, customer ratings and
reviews. Together with transaction-level data that I provide (with millions of transactions a
year) we will estimate the impact of retail (number and quality) on house prices to see how
much (and whether) households value the proximity of retail. A focus will be on finding a
way to estimate the causal impact of such retail, as retail quality will be correlated with
unobservable dimensions of housing quality.
Energy, Renewables and CO2 reduction: a quantitative assessment using electricity market
data
Supervisor: Anna Creti ([email protected])
Description: In Europe, the electricity producers who participates in the European market
for CO2 permits are responsible for almost half of the verified emissions since the beginning
of the market (Berghmans and Alberola, 2013). This is the reason why part of the incentives
implemented in most European countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are designed
to replace the most polluting generation technologies with renewables.
This project is based on an original methodology for quantifying reductions in national CO2
emissions which analyses the technologies for electricity production and their evolution over
time. The idea is to evaluate the effective reduction of CO2 emissions due to the renewable
increase, given the localization of the power plants and the physical network constraints.
We propose an application of such methodology to the Italian electricity market. To this end,
the candidates are required to conduct a detailed data analysis. This application requires a
preliminary work on different data sources to harmonize input data. Then the carbon
emissions resulting from the daily equilibrium in the Italian electricity market will be
estimated. To perform these tasks, knowledge of R or Matlab software is required.
The final objective is to suggest alternative market models which will result in low carbon
energy production. This project is part of a broader research program founded by the Energy
Institute at Hass, University of California Berkeley.
Database:
1. A first database contains all the information on the transactions taking places in the
Italian electricity market (2010-2015). The stored variables (which have an hourly
frequency) are:
 Equilibrium prices
 Regional forecasted demand and ex-post (actual) demand
 Transmission limits across regions and transits resulting from the daily
equilibrium
 Offers by participants
2. A companion database which allows to identify the production technology, the
installed capacity and the localization of a power plant given its power plant code
(about 80% of total offers in the day-ahead market can be mapped)
3.
Carma
database
(Carbon
http://carma.org/dig/show/3175395
Monitoring
for
action
database):
Main References:
Amor, M.B. et al., 2014, “Influence of wind power on hourly electricity prices and GHG
(greenhouse gas) emissions: Evidence that congestion matters from Ontario zonal data”,
Energy 66, 2014, 458-469
Hitaj, C., 2015, “Location matters: The impact of renewable power on transmission
congestion and emissions”, Energy Policy 86, 1–16
Novan, K., 2015, “Valuing the Wind: Renewable Energy Policies and Air Pollution Avoided,
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 7(3): 291–326
Trade’s Role in Mitigating Welfare Impacts of Climate Change
Supervisor: Geoffrey BARROWS ([email protected])
A central question in the Economics of Climate Change is how trade networks will mitigate
(or potentially exacerbate) the geophysical impacts of rising temperatures. In a seminal
paper, Costinot Donaldson and Smith (2016) argue that trade plays almost no role in
mitigating welfare impacts of productivity changes when production adjusts immediately.
The goal of this project is to address the question allowing for unexpected climate-induced
natural disasters. We will assume spatial distribution of production will not be optimized expost, but that trade networks can adjust to the unexpected drop in production in certain
regions. The project will involve re-simulating the structural model of Costinot Donaldson
and Smith (2016) using matlab software and GAEZ agricultural productivity data, then
running new simulations in which natural disasters wipe out production in some regions.
References:
Arnaud Costinot, Dave Donaldson, and Cory Smith, "Evolving Comparative Advantage and
the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields
around the World," Journal of Political Economy 124, no. 1 (February 2016): 205-248.
Environmental Costs of Trade Liberalization
Supervisor: Geoffrey BARROWS ([email protected])
The rapid liberalization of output tariffs on goods coming to and leaving from India has been
found to increase productivity and consumer welfare. However, it is possible that these
standard gains from trade were also accompanied by an increase in local air pollution, which
would attenuate the measured gains. In this project, we will use international tariff data and
local production data from India to estimate the impacts of trade policy on local air pollution
in that county. The project will require stata programming and applied econometric
techniques. We will also explore the role of environmental regulation as a channel.
References:
Greenstone, Michael and Rema Hanna. 2014. "Environmental Regulations, Air and Water
Pollution, and Infant Mortality in India." American Economic Review, 104(10): 3038-72.
CSR and executives compensation (RSE et rémunération des dirigeants)
Supervisor: Patricia CRIFO ([email protected])
Une littérature économique récente montre un lien ambigu entre la performance
environnementale des entreprises et la rémunération des dirigeants. Certains travaux
montrent que les entreprises proposant des rémunérations managériales très importantes
et incitatives ont tendance à enfreindre plus fortement les lois environnementales (Minor,
2016). D'un autre côté, des entreprises avec une plus forte responsabilité en matière de
gouvernance ont tendance à offrir des rémunérations à leurs cadres plus fréquemment
fondées sur la performance sociale de l'entreprise (Hong et al 2016).
Ce projet s'inscrit dans cette littérature et a pour objectif d'analyser le lien entre
rémunérations des dirigeants et RSE et évaluer, à partir d’un univers de plus de 2000
entreprises cotées dans le monde, l’engagement et la capacité des équipes dirigeantes à
rendre compte du degré auquel leurs rémunérations sont sensibles à l’exercice de leurs
responsabilités sociales au sens large.
The Inequality-College Graduation Rates Puzzle
Supervisor: Christian BELZIL ([email protected])
In recent decades, two important changes in the US wage distribution have been observed.
First, the wage gaps between either 4-year college graduates or college attendants on one
hand and high school graduates on the other hand, have both widened. Second, residual
wage inequality, defined as wage dispersion within broad demographic and skill groups, has
also increased. Over the past four decades, the college-high school premium has averaged
around 56% while the difference between those who have attended college and high school
graduates has averaged around 21%. Over the 1982-2001 period, the college premium rose
to 80% while the college attendants premium reached 30%.
In light of these major changes in the wage distribution, parallel movements in schooling
attainments have been less spectacular. For instance, the fraction of higher education
attendants completing college has remained stable, despite the huge increase in the
observed college-high school premium.
How does one reconcile these facts? This issue is regarded by many economists as a puzzle,
which is difficult to explain.
Time Inconsistent Preferences and Higher Education Financial Aid
Supervisor: Christian BELZIL ([email protected])
A vast literature in economics and experimental psychology has documented the incidence
of individual behavior violating standard exponential discounting (Frederick, Loewenstein
and O’Donoghue, 2002). The view that many individuals are subject to “Preference Reversal”
and discount future events with a declining rate of time preference is now widespread in the
economics profession. This has lead economists to propose a “hyperbolic discounting”
specification of the basic intertemporal decision model. The most common parameterization
of time inconsistent preferences is the two-parameter model in which immediacy is
captured in a single parameter (usually denoted beta) and in which standard time
preference parameter is represented by a classical discount factor (usually denoted delta).
Using a unique Canadian Field experiment taking place in many high schools, it would be
interesting to examine how time inconsistency may affect the probability to refuse higher
education financial aid in favor of immediate cash payments.
Effets de l’apprentissage collectif des consommateurs sur les ventes
Supervisor: Romain de Nijs ([email protected])
L'objectif de ce projet est d'estimer, dans le cadre du marché des films de cinéma, dans
quelles mesures les décisions de consommation des individus dépendent de l'information
qu'ils perçoivent de leurs pairs (apprentissage collectif). L’étude consistera dans un premier
temps à répliquer les analyses présentées dans Moretti (2011) qui vise à mesurer ces effets
d’apprentissage collectif dans le cadre du marché des films en salle aux Etats-Unis. Dans un
second temps, le projet aura pour objet d’adapter le modèle de Moretti (2011) au cas du
marché français et à l’estimer à l’aide de données sur la sortie des films en France.
Bibliographie
Moretti, E., (2011), Social Learning and Peer Effects in Consumption: Evidence from Movie
Sales, Review of Economic Studies, 78, 356
La valeur d’être numéro 1
Chaque semaine plusieurs dizaines de nouveaux films sortent dans les salles de cinéma. Le
succès d’un film en salle puis en DVD et à la télévision dépend donc de sa capacité à se
distinguer rapidement des autres films concurrents. En particulier, le fait d’être numéro 1 au
box office lors de sa semaine de sortie est généralement perçu comme un facteur
déterminant du succès commercial d’un film. Ce projet a pour objet de tester cette
hypothèse, de quantifier l’avantage procuré du fait d’être numéro 1 lors de sa semaine et
d’en comprendre les déterminants économique. L’étude sera fondée sur l’article de Cabral
et Natividad (2016) et réalisée à l’aide de données sur les films sortis en France.
Bibliographie
Cabral, L. et G. Natividad (2016), Box-Office Demand: The Importance of Being #1, Journal of
Industrial Economics, 64, 277-294
Stratégie de tarification dynamique des hôtels
Les hôtels pratiquent une tarification dynamique qui s’adapte au cours du temps aux
conditions d’offre et de demande. Cette stratégie tarifaire, connue sous le nom de yield
management, leur permet d’optimiser leur taux de remplissage tout en maintenant leur
rentabilité. L’objet du projet consistera à caractériser les stratégies de yield management
mises en œuvre par les hôtels en France en distinguant notamment les hôtels indépendants
des chaines. Il aura également pour objet de tester dans quelle mesure les conditions
contractuelles telles que les clauses de parités des plateformes de réservation sont
susceptibles d’affecter les stratégies de yield management des hôtels. Le projet sera fondé
sur l’article d’Escobari (2012). La base de données qui sera mise à disposition contient les
prix affichés quotidiennement sur Internet par 5 000 hôtels répartis dans les 8 principales
villes françaises au cours d’une période de 18 mois. Les données de géolocalisation, le
nombre d’étoiles, la note TripAdvisor et le nombre de commentaires sont également
disponible pour chacun des hôtels.
Bibliographie
Escobari, D. (2012): Dynamic pricing, advance sales, and aggregate demand learning in
airlines. Journal of Industrial Economics 60, 697-724.
L’impact des récessions sur le marché du travail
Supervisor: Pierre Cahuc ([email protected])
PROBLÉMATIQUE
Les récessions induisent généralement d’importantes destructions d’emplois et un
accroissement du chômage. Cependant, les récessions n’affectent pas tous les groupes socio
démographiques de la même manière. Ainsi, en France, le taux d’emploi des seniors âgés de
55 à 64 ans a crû significativement de 2008 à 2012 tandis que le taux d’emploi des jeunes de
moins de 25 ans chutait significativement.
L ‘objet de ce projet consiste à étudier l’impact des récessions en France sur l’emploi, le
chômage et les revenus de groupes socio démographiques caractérisés par le genre, l’âge, le
niveau d’étude et l’origine géographique notamment. Il s’agira d’étudier les récessions de
1974, 1993 et 2009 pour voir si les groupes socio démographiques sont systématiquement
affectés de la même manière. Le constat éventuel d’une évolution de l’impact des récessions
pourra conduire à en examiner les causes.
Les élèves devront maîtriser le logiciel STATA ainsi que les logiciels bureautiques standards
(Pack office).
DONNÉES UTILISÉES
Les données utilisées dans le cadre de cette étude concernent pour l’essentiel l’enquête
emploi de l’INSEE.
BIBLIOGRAPHIE INDICATIVE
Hilary Hoynes, Douglas L. Miller, and Jessamyn Schaller, Who Suffers During Recessions?,
Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 26, Number 3—Summer 2012—Pages 27–48.
L’évolution de la stabilité de l’emploi en France
PROBLÉMATIQUE
Dans un article publié en 2002, Luc Behagel a montré que l’insécurité de l’emploi, mesurée
par le taux de transition annuel des hommes de l’emploi vers le non-emploi, a
considérablement augmenté entre 1975 et 2000 en France. Mais au contraire de ce qui a été
observé aux États-Unis, les salariés anciens d’âge médian ont été remarquablement
épargnés. La hausse de l’insécurité s’est concentrée sur les salariés de moins de dix ans
d’ancienneté et sur les salariés de plus de 55 ans.
L’objet de ce projet est d’utiliser les enquêtes emploi de l’INSEE pour voir si les résultats
obtenus en 2002 sont toujours valables aujourd’hui ou si la nature de l’insécurité de l’emploi
a évolué.
(Pack office).
DONNÉES UTILISÉES
Luc Behagel, Insécurité de l’emploi : le rôle protecteur de l’ancienneté a-t-il baissé en
France ?, ÉCONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE N° 366, 2003.
La polarisation de l’emploi en France
PROBLÉMATIQUE
Depuis 30 ans, notre marché du travail subit un choc inégalitaire lié à la transformation de
notre économie sous l’effet des nouvelles technologies. Sylvain Catherine, Augustin Landier
et David Thesmar ont montré que cette transformation induit en France une polarisation du
marché du travail qui contraint la population la moins qualifiée à basculer vers des emplois
de services plus précaires et moins rémunérés.
L’objet de ce projet est d’utiliser les enquêtes emploi de l’INSEE pour analyser en détail ces
transformations et évaluer l’ampleur de la polarisation de l’emploi.
(Pack office).
DONNÉES UTILISÉES
Sylvain Catherine, Augustin Landier et David Thesmar, Marché du travail : la grande fracture,
note de l’Institut Montaigne, 2015.
The economic model of football academies for professional football clubs
Supervisor: Philippe Février ([email protected])
Description:
The aim of the group is to estimate the economic gain for a professional football club of
investing in its football academy to train young players and integrate them in their
professional team. This topic is particularly relevant as most national football associations
took or prepare regulation measures to impose a minimum number of home-grown players.
The statistical analysis will take into account the probability of turning a young player into a
professional, the direct economic gain resulting from a subsequent transfer fee and the
indirect gain of avoiding the recruitment of another player. The resulting model will allow
the estimation of the optimal investment in football academies depending on the type of
club.
The database covers a period from 2010 to 2016 on the squads of Big5 clubs (Premier
League, Serie A, Liga, Bundesliga, Ligue 1), and information on the players (transfer fees, age,
academy of origin..).
References:
Angrist, Joshua D., and Jörn-Steffen Pischke. Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist's
companion. Princeton university press, 2008.
Woolridge, J. M. "Econometrics: A Modern Approach." (2002).
Paul Downward, Alistair Dawson, The Economics of Professional Team Sports (2002)
The impact of taxation on football clubs spending and recruitment
Description:
The aim of the group is to estimate the fiscal impact of a modification in the level of taxation
for professional football players in France. While it is generally considered that football clubs
compete on net wages to attract the best players, French clubs have higher taxation levels
than other Big5 clubs (Premier League, Serie A, Liga, Bundesliga). In this context, a decrease
of taxation levels in France would make French clubs more competitive. The estimation of
the fiscal impact of such a measure requires predicting how French clubs would react and
adjust their spending policy and how their better competitiveness would translate into
higher taxable income.
The dataset includes an aggregated database on club spending and revenues and data on
taxation levels.
References:
Kleven, Henrik, Camille Landais, and Emmanuel Saez (2010), “Taxation and International
Migration of Superstars: Evidence from the European Football Market”, NBER Working Paper
16545, November.
Angrist, Joshua D., and Jörn-Steffen Pischke. Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist's
companion. Princeton university press, 2008.
Woolridge, J. M. "Econometrics: A Modern Approach." (2002).
Machine Learning and Econometrics
Description:
How do Machine Learning Algorithms such as Decision Trees, Random Forests, Boosting, etc.
compare to more traditional econometrics tools such as Linear Regression or Logistic
Regression ?
Using a real dataset of your choice, you will study a binary variable of interest Y using
different Econometrics and ML algorithms. The aim project is twofold :
1) Compare prediction quality between the different algorithms
2) Compare interpretability of the models and recover marginal effects if possible
References:
Athey, S., Imbens, G. W., « The state of applied econometrics – causality, and policy
evaluation », 2016
Athey, S., Imbens, G. W. : « Machine learning methods for estimating heterogeneous causal
effects », 2015
James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., « Introduction to Statistical Learning with
Applications in R », Springer
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., Friedman, J., « The Elements of Statistical Learning », Springer
Monetary Policy, inflation expectations and wages in the euro area
Supervisor: Benoit MOJON ([email protected])
Wage and price setting in Japan, before during and after the deflation
Supervisor: Benoit MOJON ([email protected])
Speculative behaviors and financial markets
Supervisor: Jean-Marc BOURGEON ([email protected])
The objective of this Applied Economics Project is to study the impact of imperfect
information and individual believes on the functioning of financial markets. After reviewing
the main literature on the topics, the students will simulate numerically a financial market
and compare different policy tools to restore economic efficiency.
Bank regulation and credit risk
Supervisor: Jean-Marc BOURGEON ([email protected])
The banks' risk exposure is subject to regulations known as Basel regulatory frameworks.
These regulations aim at improving the banking sector's ability to absorb financial and
economic shocks. After reviewing the main literature on the topics, the students will
simulate stress tests, i.e. perform simulations designed to determine the ability of different
regulations to help banks to deal with an economic crisis.
Economie de la logistique urbaine
Supervisor: Dominique BUREAU ([email protected])
L’économie urbaine met au cœur de l’organisation des villes des arbitrages entre les coûts
de transports et les économies d’agglomération qui poussent à la concentration des activités
dans les villes. Dans cette perspective, l’évaluation des politiques et infrastructures de
transport a progressivement enrichi ses méthodes d’analyse, intégrant dans l’analyse coutsbénéfices initialement limitée aux impacts sur le marché des transports (corrigée des
externalités négatives de pollution) les interactions de ceux-ci avec les marchés fonciers et
des bénéfices « élargis » prenant en compte leurs effets structurants à long-terme.
Cependant les transports considérés demeurent essentiellement les déplacements domiciletravail. Ceux-liés à la logistique urbaine, c’est-à dire les transports qui permettent
l’approvisionnement des villes en biens et services et leur distribution au sein de celle-ci sont
restés dans l’angle mort, ce domaine étant considéré comme relevant de « l’intendance » et
les choix étant en pratique dictés par les contraintes d’acceptabilité des nuisances associées.
L’intensification de ces flux, l’évolution des attentes des citadins en termes de proximité, et
la révolution numérique qui permet à la fois de rationaliser et personnaliser les chaines
logistiques renouvellent les approches de ces questions, suggérant que dans ce domaine
aussi l’évaluation des projets ou réglementations ne peut se limiter à une approche de
satisfaction de la demande au moindre coût (généralisé) ignorant les dimensions
stratégiques et les interactions avec l’organisation urbaine. L’objectif du travail est
d’identifier, en considérant différentes initiatives significatives à cet égard, les éléments
correspondants (externalités positives) à intégrer dans l’évaluation des bénéfices (et les biais
dans le design des projets qui résulteraient de leur omission).
Bibliographie (introductive)
S.Proost et J-F.Thisse. (2015) « Skilled-cities, regional disparities and efficient transport. The
state of the art and research agenda ». Mimeo
La Fabrique de la Cité. (2016) « Feeding and fueling the City »

ECO501: Applied Economics Project (2016

Transcription

Documents pareils

fashion show/défilé de mode

Safe Clean Drinking Water Project Open Houses

PROJECT MANAGER INTERN IN SPORTS EVENTS Entreprise et

Le système de supervision Sices Supervisor est un software que, en

Organigramme FBI New York

Supprimer une partition CDFS (U3) - Homeres

Ecrire un essai

Infolettre #1 Ikebana

Catalogue 2015-2016 - Catalogue des cours de l`Ecole polytechnique

Wizcon Supervisor 9.3 launch FR v1.0.qxd