une revue de la litterature

Transcription

ISBN : 978-2-36442-005-2
© 2011 : Tout droit réservés
Ce livre a été publié avec le concours de l’Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3
Conception graphique dela couverture, impression et fabrication :
Service Édition de l’Université Jean-Moulin Lyon 3
2ème colloque franco-tchèque
« Trends in International Business »
Colloque organisé par visio-conférence le 30 juin 2011
co-organisé par
le laboratoire Magellan (équipe d’accueil EA 3713), IAE Lyon, Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3
et la Faculté des relations internationales, Université dÉconomie de Prague
Ce colloque international est co-organisé par l’axe de recherche « Management international » du
laboratoire Magellan (équipe d’accueil EA 3713), IAE Lyon, Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3 et par la
Faculté des relations internationales, Université dÉconomie de Prague. Les deux établissements
coopèrent depuis de nombreuses années dans les domaines de l’enseignement et de la recherche. C’est
dans cette perspective que leurs équipes de recherche ont pris l’initiative, en 2010, d’organiser un
colloque annuel sur la thématique des tendances du management international. L’objectif du colloque
est de discuter des recherches menées dans le champ du management international et d’offrir aux
doctorants et aux enseignants-chercheurs des deux universités la possibilité de présenter leurs travaux
de recherche. Il s’agit d’un projet collectif mené par l’axe de recherche « Management international »
du laboratoire Magellan piloté par Ulrike Mayrhofer. L’ouvrage est coordonné par Alain Roger,
responsable du comité scientifique du colloque.
Membres du comité scientifique :
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Peter BALAZ, Professeur des Universités, Université dÉconomie, Bratislava
Jean-Jack CEGARRA, Professeur des Universités, Magellan, IAE, Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3
Paul Marc COLLIN, Maître de Conférences, Magellan, IAE, Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3
Yves LIVIAN, Professeur des Universités, Magellan, IAE, Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3
Hana MACHKOVA, Professeur des Universités, Université dÉconomie de Prague
Ulrike MAYRHOFER, Professeur des Universités, Magellan, IAE, Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3
Catherine MERCIER SUISSA, Maître de Conférences, Magellan, IAE, Université Jean Moulin
Lyon 3
Catherine PIVOT, Professeur des Universités, Magellan, IAE, Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3
Alain ROGER, Professeur des Universités, Magellan, IAE, Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3
Alexej SATO, Maître de Conférences, Université dÉconomie de Prague
Ludmila STERBOVA, Directeur Académique du programme International Business, Université
dÉconomie de Prague
Josef TAUSER, Maître de Conférences, Université dÉconomie de Prague
Julien VERCUEIL, Professeur agrégé d’économie et de gestion, Magellan, IUT, Université Jean
Moulin Lyon 3
Colloque organisé avec le soutien de l’entreprise
PLAN
LA PERFORMANCE DES FUSIONS-ACQUISITIONS : UNE REVUE DE LA LITTERATURE .................................13 L’INNOVATION DANS LES FIRMES MULTINATIONALES : UNE REVUE DE LA LITTÉRATURE ......................27 RELOCALISATION : D’UN SUJET DÉLICAT À UNE PROPOSITION DE CADRES THÉORIQUES .........................35 LEAN PRODUCTION: THE LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY CHAIN AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN
AN INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT ....................................................................................................................47 SPÉCIFICITÉ DES PME DE SERVICES SUPÉRIEURS FRANÇAISES A L’INTERNATIONAL : LE RÔLE
DES TECHNOLOGIES DE L'INFORMATION ET DE LA COMMUNICATION ......................................................63 STOCK MARKETS INTEGRATION AMONG THE NEW MEMBER STATES AND THE EURO AREA ...................79 THE RISING IMPORTANCE OF CURRENCY RISK MANAGEMENT, THE RISK MOST OF THE CZECH
ENTREPRENEURS ARE FACING IN THEIR INTERNATIONAL TRADING ..........................................................91 THE VENTURE CAPITAL/PRIVATE EQUITY INDUSTRY INTERNATIONALIZATION AND ITS POSITION
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE ..........................................................................................................101 EXTERNAL BALANCE OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC ...................................................................................................111 A REVIEW OF THE MAIN CONCEPTS OF LUXURY CONSUMER BEHAVIOR AND CONTEMPORARY
MEANING OF LUXURY .............................................................................................................................................123 L’ÉQUILIBRE INTERNE DES NOUVEAUX ETATS MEMBRES DE L’UE METTANT L’ACCENT SUR LA
CRISE MONDIALE .....................................................................................................................................................135 THE IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON BALTIC COUNTRIES ............................................................................................153 COMPETITIVENESS OF CZECH WINE PRODUCERS DURING FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS .............169 CZECH EXPORT IN A TIME OF CRISIS ........................................................................................................................179 ANALYSES DE PROCESSUS DÉCISIONNEL DÁCHAT DANS UNE ENTREPRISE MULTINATIONALE...........189 TRADE FINANCE DURING THE LAST CRISIS ............................................................................................................199 MONITORING FINANCIAL INDICATORS OF ENERGY UTILITIES: AN EXAMPLE OF CENTRAL
EUROPEAN ENERGY DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES ............................................................................................207 THE IMPACTS OF NEW BANKING REGULATION ON CZECH BANKING SECTOR .............................................217 CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN - INFLUENCE OF THIRD COUNTRIES, EUROAREA IN THE
CARIBBEAN, POSSIBILITIES FOR CZECH ENTREPRENEURS ...........................................................................229 INTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTION AS COMMUNICATION TOOL WHAT BUILDS EXPERIENCE AND
VALUE PERCEPTION IN LUXURY RETAIL SETTING? .......................................................................................243 IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL REPORTING STANDARDS ON DEVELOPMENT OF
ACCOUNTING REGULATORY SYSTEM IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC.................................................................255 7
Résumé des communications
LA PERFORMANCE DES FUSIONS-ACQUISITIONS : UNE REVUE DE LA
LITTERATURE
Ludivine CHALENÇON
Mergers and acquisitions are appealing to researchers in finance who are trying to establish the
performance of these high-risk operations. Although the results are rather mixed, this strategy of
development is again growing strongly. The literature reports studies which mobilize different
methodologies and different samples and encounter many difficulties in finding consensus.
This article aims to present a literature review of the performance of mergers and acquisitions to
enhance our understanding of the results of previous studies. To do so, we will use fourteen articles
published in French and international journals.
L’INNOVATION DANS LES FIRMES MULTINATIONALES : UNE REVUE DE LA
LITTERATURE
Lusine ARZUMANYAN
The aim of this paper is to examine the findings of recent studies, through a literature review on
innovation processes in multinational companies.
The objective of this review is to provide a roadmap of the field by highlighting the various empirical
and theoretical issues that have been studied in the literature.
RELOCALISATION : D’UN SUJET DELICAT A UNE PROPOSITION DE CADRES
THEORIQUES
Jacques BELBENOIT-AVICH
This work has to two aims. The first one is to present the relocations. After a definition of this notion,
we have decided not to make a review of literature but to take as a whole its advances by showing its
contributions, its limits and the difficulties the researchers have to face. The second aim is to put
forward theories by suggesting the resource-based theory and the transaction costs theory.
LEAN PRODUCTION: THE LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY CHAIN AND SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT IN AN INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
Denise RAVET
While there could be separate streams of established research on lean production, global supply chain
and sustainable development, the idea is to address the intersection of these strategic initiatives. Firms
may find synergies and competitive advantage through these strategies. The aim of the mission is to
explore the link between sustainable development, global supply chain and the lean paradigm in the
international changing competitive environment. Lean has long been linked to improve operational
performance and environmental performance. The concern is to analyze how companies could manage
the lean and sustainable principles through the global supply chain in order to take advantage of
synergy and to strengthen their operational expertise in an international environment.
SPECIFICITE DES PME DE SERVICES SUPERIEURS FRANÇAISES A
L’INTERNATIONAL : LE ROLE DES TECHNOLOGIES DE L’INFORMATION ET DE LA
COMMUNICATION
Paul Marc COLLIN, Eric THIVANT, Bruno MORISET, Olivier BRETTE
This article deals with International SMEs and their strategic management linked with information and
communication technologies. We would like to know how International SMEs manage their distance
and proximity with clients, when they are themselves in peripherical area. We will take as an example
the case of French International SMEs. We will compare the difference in terms of ICT management
between local or regional SMEs and European or International SMEs. First of all, we will present the
state of Art of International Management Studies, then we will focus on the relations between ICT and
Entreprises. Secondly, we will focus on the DISCOTEC study, with the development of the
methodology, the sample chosen and the analysis of the ground. Finally we will discuss the results and
open new perspectives and we will compare our work with other countries such as the Czech Republic
8
STOCK MARKETS INTEGRATION AMONG THE NEW MEMBER STATES AND THE
EURO AREA
Mgr. Ing. Jiří CHALOUPKA
The main objective of this paper is to quantify the degree to which stock markets of new member
states are integrated with the markets of the euro area and to examine the evolution of the integration
process during the period 2000–2011. For this purpose, the methods used by the Czech National Bank
were utilized. The price-based measures, which analyze the synchronization of stock market trends,
show that before the crisis the correlation coefficients gradually grew and the standard deviation was
relatively low which indicates an ongoing process of convergence of the stock markets. After
September 2008, however, the correlation coefficients increased even sharply but the cross-country
standard deviation also grew which can be explained by an external shock that affected both NMS and
euro area stock markets but each of the markets in a different way. The news-based measures, which
examine the response of asset prices in individual countries to common factors, also indicate a
convergence process before the crisis, but the results are not statistically significant. According to
these measures, during the financial crisis and the following period the stock markets of new member
states were more sensitive to news common to euro area market. Even though, these results are
statistically significant, the model seems to be inappropriate to measure the state of integration.
THE RISING IMPORTANCE OF CURRENCY RISK MANAGEMENT, THE RISK MOST
OF THE CZECH ENTREPRENEURS ARE FACING IN THEIR INTERNATIONAL
TRADING
Ing. Klára KOUKALOVÁ
The company´s management faces plenty of risks while doing business. The fading financial crises
meant aggressive pressure to costs diminishing in all aspects of business activities. The new approach
to systematic risk management brings more professional handling of all financial risks, especially the
currency risk.
This paper deals with the growing importance of currency risk management in business units of any
size. After classification of financial risks and specification of the three currency risk´s categories I
will discuss the importance of the monitoring and management of the exchange rates in the companies
undertaking their business in the economy sizes Czech Republic. There are lots of tradable currencies
used in the international trade, but for Czech entrepreneurs just some of them need to be managed. Due
to the territorial structure of the Czech foreign trade I will discuss the major currencies used in the
international conversions of Czech companies. Further I will present the volatility of exchange rates
and their progress during current financial crises. In fine I will present the basic elements of currency
risk management.
THE VENTURE CAPITAL/PRIVATE EQUITY INDUSTRY INTERNATIONALIZATION
AND ITS POSITION IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
Ing. Martin JUREK
The venture capital and private equity industry establishes a fairly new form of entrepreneurial activity
financing for the Central and Eastern Europe region. An investor enters a firm in a stage where
standardized bank financial instruments are overwhelmingly costly or due to information asymmetry
unavailable. The partnership is based not only on a financial support but also on a managerial expertise
and industry knowledge provision. The investor is generally a private owned venture capital/private
equity fund.
This article first introduces the risk capital as such. A phenomenon of the industry is its almost
continuous growth which is supported in particular by its global expansion. From already well
saturated Western markets investors are shifting towards markets of the Central and Eastern Europe.
Investment firms´ internationalization is a part of the second part. The internationalization can be
described from the theoretical point of view by the modified eclectic theory and the
internationalization model based on a combination of internal and external driving forces.
The development and position of risk capital in the Central and Eastern Europe is stated in the last
part. The investment value in absolute numbers has risen in last years. This growth is however not
evenly distributed and is driven by only a few countries. Investments as a percentage of the gross
9
domestic product ratio have been growing in the tracked period as well. In 2009 was this ratio even
higher than in the European Union. Even though the global attractiveness index does not find the
region very attractive a positive trend in risk capital growth can be predicted for the short run.
EXTERNAL BALANCE OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC
Ing. Kateřina GAJDUŠKOVÁ
The paper analyzes the development of the current account deficit of the Czech Republic with the help
of relation between national savings and domestic investment. This model declares that if there is high
capital mobility in the economy, then the national savings and domestic investment may not be in
equilibrium, because the difference is easily compensated by foreign capital. In the Czech Republic
there is a relatively strong dependence between these two variables, which indicates limited capital
mobility. But this dependence weakens gradually, the Czech Republic has been increasing capital
mobility and also inclines more to external imbalances.
A REVIEW OF THE MAIN CONCEPTS OF LUXURY CONSUMER BEHAVIOR AND
CONTEMPORARY MEANING OF LUXURY
Yana SHAMINA
Academics and practitioners started to pay more attention to the specifics of luxury sector. During last
decades it became clear that general economic principles and techniques are not efficient enough when
building or sustaining luxury product.
Pointing to the fact that there is a small number of the specialized literature and research works
devoted to this area, the main goal of this paper is to make the deep research on the topic by
incorporating existing scientific works. Nevertheless, the purpose of this research is to define specifics
of the luxury field in relation to consumer behavior, pricing strategies and identify modern definition
of luxury.
L’EQUILIBRE INTERNE DES NOUVEAUX ETATS MEMBRES DE L’UE METTANT
L’ACCENT SUR LA CRISE MONDIALE
Ilya BOLOTOV
The global financial and economic crisis (2007–2010) has significantly influenced the European Union leading
to a downturn in its members countries.
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the crisis on the internal balance of the new member states of
the EU.
The paper is divided into three main parts: the definition of the notion “internal balance” and description of the
factors which strengthen or weaken the impact of the crisis on the national economy; the analysis of the
development of the NMS in the long run; and the examination of the situation during the crisis, of the
predictions for the future and of the role of the Euro.
THE IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON BALTIC COUNTRIES
Ing. Radek ČAJKA
Latvia and the other two Baltic countries (Estonia and Lithuania) that joined the European Union in
2004 were for quite a long period of time considered for model transition economies with excellent
economic performance. But as the financial crisis and especially the panic that flooded the markets
made its appearance in this small part of Europe, several bad or unhealthy economic facts about these
countries were revealed. During a few weeks position of these countries switched from general
chanting about their performance to very serious financial troubles that had to be solved with the help
of international (financial) institutions, because otherwise some of them would have gone bankrupt.
The aim of this article is to review the impacts of financial and economic crisis on these three Baltic
countries, with a special paid to the situation in Latvia.
10
COMPETITIVENESS OF CZECH WINE PRODUCERS DURING FINANCIAL AND
ECONOMIC CRISIS
Ing. Martina FROŇKOVÁ
Global financial and economic crisis has negatively affected most of EU states. Especially small and
medium export oriented enterprises have felt negative impacts of the crisis significantly. This paper is
focused on real examples and experiences with export clustering. The main aim is to identify whether
it would be beneficial for Moravian wine producers to form wine cluster to support increase in export
activity.
CZECH EXPORT IN A TIME OF CRISIS
Ing. Adam KRČÁL
The global economic crisis represents a real danger for the Czech Republic because export activities
are vitally essential for a small and open economy, which are the characteristics very typical for the
Czech Republic. Small and open economies are generally very dependent on their external economic
relations, which may be expressed by the ratio between the volume of the external trade and the
country’s GDP. Liberal theories in economics state that the main duty of the government is to ensure
that there are only a few obstacles (or even none) for exporters when entering foreign markets. The
government should make the export of their companies as easy as possible.
The export promotion policy should aim at levelling up the volume of exports, which then contributes
to the overall performance of the economy and enhances also the labour market by creating new job
opportunities. This also helps to improve the productivity of the labour force because bigger exports
enhance the competitiveness growth and the performance of the country in innovations. In the time of
ongoing economic crisis, this need is even stronger.
This article focuses on the analysis of the system of Czech export promotion, which is a subject of the
first part, but also on the development of the balance of trade during the economic crisis, which can be
also very affected by the crisis.
ANALYSES DE PROCESSUS DECISIONNEL DÁCHAT DANS UNE ENTREPRISE
MULTINATIONALE
Martin MACHEK
Dans cet article, je vais me concentrer sur la problématique du positionnement prix. Lóbjectif de mon
travail est dánalyser les différents aspects liés aux analyses du positionnement et dámener la
meilleure compréhension de ce processus. En sáppuyant sur les connaissances théoriques, je vais
analyser le processus décisionnel dáchat du client et les moyens de mesure de la compétitivité prix
pendant différents étapes de ce processus. Je vais présenter différents indices et les problèmes liés à
leurs collecte et à leurs analyse. Jáppliquerai le concept théorique à la pratique dúne entreprise
multinationale.
TRADE FINANCE DURING THE LAST CRISIS
Ing. Michal NEJEDLÝ
Since 2008 the world economy has been substantially determined by the financial and economic crisis.
Trade finance, which is the fuel for more than 80 % of world trade, has been hit by distress on the
financial market. Exporters and importers were affected by a constrained supply of trade finance
products, their higher prices and by a lack of foreign orders. On the background of literature dealing
with trade finance in previous crises, the paper summarizes the findings of surveys conducted
worldwide during the last several years in the field of trade finance.
11
MONITORING FINANCIAL INDICATORS OF ENERGY UTILITIES: AN EXAMPLE OF
CENTRAL EUROPEAN ENERGY DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES
Ondřej MACHEK
This paper deals with a financial analysis of Central European energy distribution companies,
especially electricity transmission and distribution and natural gas transportation and distribution
companies. We focus on Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Austria, Germany and
Switzerland. In this paper, we refer to the distribution system operators as DSOs and to the
transmission system operators as TSOs.
Firms operating in energy distribution industries are often classified as natural monopolies and referred
to as public utilities, since they provide a service that is affected with public interest. Since these
companies have substantial monopoly powers and provide an essential service, they are regulated by
independent regulatory bodies. Regulatory legislation and methods vary across the region. Central
Europe is characterized by huge economic and social disparities and differences in regulatory
experience.
Financial analysis of industry sectors forms a gap between macroeconomic analysis and financial
analysis of particular companies. In this paper, we determine common performance indicators
(financial ratios of profitability, asset management, liquidity, solvency) of energy distribution sector in
the Central European region and we analyze the development of return on equity (ROE) and its
components in individual countries between 2005-2009.
THE IMPACTS OF NEW BANKING REGULATION ON CZECH BANKING SECTOR
Ing. Zdeněk PAVLÍK
This article attempts to map out the areas where the impact of individual regulation proposals could be
significant or substantial on the Czech banking sector. The proposed measures of the new banking
regulation try to strengthen the resilience of the banking sector in order to achieve long-term
sustainable economic growth. The measures are proposed as a response to the financial and economic
crisis and it can be said under time pressure, because it is not expected that a new crisis is coming
soon. They are also proposed by various institutions and thus it could be relatively easy to comply with
each of the indicators separately. The regulation change would affect not only individual indicators
and their calibration, but also issues which are difficult to be quantified (ie, risk management,
accounting regime, corporate governance), (Niedermayer, 2010).
The article will try to explain that some of the proposed measures would have no strong impact on the
Czech banks. Also the direct impact of most regulation measures on the Czech banking sector should
not be too significant.
In the first part of the article there would be analyzed the main features of the Czech banking sector.
These features have a significant impact on the situation in the Czech banking sector in relation to the
new banking regulation. The second part will focused on the main measures of the new banking
regulation and its impacts on the Czech banking sector.
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN - INFLUENCE OF THIRD COUNTRIES,
EUROAREA IN THE CARIBBEAN, POSSIBILITIES FOR CZECH ENTREPRENEURS
Pavel STIEGLER
This paper is focused on the description of the Euro-Caribbean relationship. It briefly analyses the
possibilities for Czech traders and offers an idea regarding the existence of European Territory in the
Caribbean (DOM-TOM). This paper is focused on the Caribbean organization and other regional
initiatives. It points out the influence of USA, Canada, China, Japan, Venezuela in Central America
and the Caribbean.
12
INTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTION AS COMMUNICATION TOOL
WHAT BUILDS EXPERIENCE AND VALUE PERCEPTION IN LUXURY RETAIL
SETTING?
Ing. Marija TISOVSKI
Certain luxury houses year after year still manage to surprise consumers, attain awareness and increase
the desire. How do they manage to sell the dream constantly? How does the presence of desire alter the
way people view a product? Does it happen by chance? Highly unlikely. The platform of which the
work is build argues that distribution formats can be significant strategic communication and
differentiation tool for luxury brand, that the intangible determinants within the space can potentially
provide balancing link between company that is trying to manage its brand bonding (expression) and
consumers search in for the meaning (impression).
The challenge of understanding the retail in luxury context lies in the fact that not so much research
has been conducted in luxury retailing. It doesn’t come as a surprise as luxury caries the flair of
mystery and secret. This ensures that a level of diversification from mass retail approach. In addition,
this brings back to the store as source of value creation and experiences that one should expect from a
luxury brand.
IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL REPORTING STANDARDS ON
DEVELOPMENT OF ACCOUNTING REGULATORY SYSTEM IN THE CZECH
REPUBLIC
Marcela ŽÁROVÁ
Regulation of financial accounting and reporting could be developed in number of ways. The great
diversity in the national regulatory systems is the consequence of different factors that could be
generalized but on the other hand also by individual factors specific to the particular country. Every
regulatory system contents rules which govern financial reporting. Preparers of financial statements
are influenced by and cover wide spectrum which ranges from laws which are enforced by legislature
body to recommendations of professional associations. A new phenomenon that appears in regulatory
systems over last years is the role of IFRS in continental European systems, the case of the Czech
Republic is used for demonstration of this issue.
Analysis of successive steps from accounting reform in early nineties of last century to present status
of financial reporting and accounting regulation in the Czech Republic, using an historical overview of
the legal framework of accounting development, was used in the paper.
The objective of this article is to analyse national system for the regulation of the financial reporting of
companies in the Czech Republic. The emphasis is on the process for setting rules, especially
standards. The process of standard setting, not developed under the due process, is criticised in this
article. Impact of IFRS is evident, not always positive.
13
LA PERFORMANCE DES FUSIONS-ACQUISITIONS :
UNE REVUE DE LA LITTERATURE
Ludivine Chalençon
Doctorante en Sciences de Gestion (titulaire d'un contrat doctoral)
Centre de recherche Magellan
IAE de Lyon, Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3
[email protected]
Résumé :
Les fusions-acquisitions suscitent l’intérêt des chercheurs en finance qui tentent de déterminer
la performance de ces opérations à haut risque. Bien que les résultats constatés soient plutôt mitigés,
cette stratégie de développement est de nouveau en forte croissance. La littérature fait ainsi état
d’études mobilisant des méthodologies et des échantillons très différents et qui rencontrent de
nombreuses difficultés à trouver des consensus.
Cet article a pour objectif de présenter une revue de la littérature de la performance des fusionsacquisitions afin d’améliorer notre compréhension des résultats des précédentes études. Pour ce faire,
nous mobilisons quatorze articles parus dans des revues françaises et internationales.
Mots-clés : fusions-acquisitions, performance
Abstract :
Mergers and acquisitions are appealing to researchers in finance who are trying to establish the
performance of these high-risk operations. Although the results are rather mixed, this strategy of
development is again growing strongly. The literature reports studies which mobilize different
methodologies and different samples and encounter many difficulties in finding consensus.
This article aims to present a literature review of the performance of mergers and acquisitions
to enhance our understanding of the results of previous studies. To do so, we will use fourteen articles
published in French and international journals.
Keywords : mergers and acquisitions, performance
Introduction
L’année 2010 a été caractérisée par une recrudescence des opérations de fusions-acquisitions
qui se sont accrues en valeur de 37% par rapport à 2009 (UNCTAD, 2011). Une première vague de
fusions-acquisitions après la crise de 2008 semble donc se dessiner. Ce constat est confirmé par une
étude menée par le cabinet Grant Thornton en décembre 2010. Il ressort que 34% des 6 000 entreprises
interrogées prévoient d’accomplir une acquisition dans les trois ans à venir, alors qu’ils étaient 26%
l’année précédente (Grant Thornton, 2011). Or, les nombreuses recherches réalisées sur ces opérations
font état de résultats plutôt mitigés avec des taux d’échec pouvant excéder 50% selon les études
(Buckley et Ghauri, 2002 ; Schoenberg, 2006). Malgré des résultats plutôt décevants, ce type de
rapprochement d’entreprises suscite toujours l’engouement des marchés.
Les travaux qui font état de ce paradoxe s’appuient sur l’évaluation de la performance des
fusions-acquisitions. Bien que ces recherches aient investigué différentes méthodologies de mesure de
performance et aient tenté de déterminer ses principaux facteurs explicatifs, les résultats recueillis sont
contrastés et des questions essentielles restent encore à résoudre (Agrawal et al., 1992 ; Devos et al.,
2009 ; Healy et al., 1992).
14
Nous nous attacherons dans cet article au concept de performance des fusions-acquisitions au
travers d’une revue de la littérature, afin de mieux comprendre les différents résultats obtenus par les
études antérieures. Cet article vise ainsi à répertorier et confronter des travaux réalisés en finance sur la
performance des fusions-acquisitions. Il a pour objectif de mettre en évidence les points de
convergence de ces recherches et de tenter d’expliquer les divergences observées. Pour ce faire, nous
avons sélectionné quatorze articles de revues françaises et internationales. Cette revue de la littérature
est structurée de la manière qui suit. Nous revenons, dans un premier temps, sur le paradoxe des
fusions-acquisitions, à savoir les fortes attentes en termes d’amélioration de la performance et les
résultats décevants qui sont constatés puis, dans un second temps, nous nous concentrons sur les
mesures et les déterminants de la performance.
1. Fusions-acquisitions : motivations et performance
1.1. Des résultats à la hauteur des objectifs et motivations ?
Les fusions-acquisitions puisent leurs justifications dans de multiples motivations. Parmi celles
qui sont le plus souvent avancées, nous pouvons citer l’accroissement du pouvoir de marché, les effets
de synergies, l’accès à de nouveaux marchés et à de nouvelles technologies, etc. Thautwein (1990) a
catégorisé les motivations liées aux fusions en sept groupes (cf. Tableau 1). Toutefois, ce tableau ne se
limite pas simplement à l’énoncé de sept théories expliquant le choix du développement de ce mode de
rapprochement d’entreprises. Il souligne également leur caractère « rationnel » et « bénéfique ».
Tableau 1 : Théories des motivations des fusions
Fusion :
un choix
rationnel
Gains nets liés aux synergies
Transferts de richesse aux
consommateurs
Transferts de richesse aux
actionnaires de la cible
Gains nets liés à l’accès à
l’information
Les fusions profitent aux managers
Les fusions profitent
aux actionnaires de
l’acquéreur
Fusions : résultat du processus
Fusions : phénomène macroéconomique
Source : Trautwein (1990), p. 284.
Théorie de l’efficience
Théorie du monopole
Théorie des transferts
Théorie de
l’évaluation
Théorie de la
construction d’empire
Théorie des processus
Théorie du chaos
Plus récemment, de nombreux travaux se concentrent particulièrement sur l’importance des
synergies et des ambitions professionnelles des managers. Ainsi, Hoberg et Philips (2010) considèrent
que la réalisation de synergies est la principale motivation de la mise en œuvre d’une fusionacquisition. Devos et al. (2009) ont construit leur recherche en s’appuyant principalement sur cette
dimension et conjointement sur les avantages fiscaux et l’accroissement du pouvoir de marché qui
leurs sont attachés pour identifier les causes de la création de valeur liée aux fusions-acquisitions. Ces
travaux empiriques s’appuient sur la théorie de l’efficience des marchés (Fama, 1965 ; Fama et al.,
1969). D’autres travaux tentent de démontrer que la réalisation d’une fusion-acquisition résulte de la
volonté des dirigeants d’asseoir leur propre satisfaction. Les dirigeants auraient donc tendance à mettre
en place des stratégies de construction d’empire (Baumol, 1959 ; Fuller et al., 2002 ; Laamanen et
Keil, 2008 ; Marris, 1963) et d’enracinement (Gorton et al., 2009 ; Shleifer et Vishny, 1989). Ces
études puisent leur fondement principalement dans la théorie de l’agence (Jensen et Meckling, 1976).
Ainsi, une part importante des travaux considèrent, de manière globale, que l’objectif de la
mise en œuvre des fusions-acquisitions est la performance : la performance anticipée de ces opérations
étant dans de nombreux cas un facteur clé pour justifier la mise en œuvre d’une opération (Meier et
Schier, 2009). Alors même que les études sont plutôt mitigées quant à l’impact des fusionsacquisitions sur la performance des entreprises, elles se sont pourtant fortement développées et
reprennent actuellement un rythme de croissance soutenu ; la performance intervenant toujours comme
15
une justification de leur mise en œuvre. Ce paradoxe est très présent dans la littérature. Celle-ci tente
donc de déterminer d’autres motivations et d’améliorer les méthodes de calcul de la performance, afin
de mieux comprendre cette situation paradoxale.
Cela explique pourquoi le concept de performance retient, depuis plusieurs décennies,
l’attention des chercheurs et des praticiens. Bien que de nombreux travaux aient été entrepris, la
définition de ce concept ainsi que son opérationnalisation soulèvent toujours de nombreux
questionnements. Dans les analyses financières, le concept de performance renvoie tant à
l’amélioration des résultats des entreprises telle qu’annoncée lors de la réalisation de l’opération qu’à
celle qui est constatée au cours des années qui suivent. Deux principaux types d’évaluation sont
dénombrés : les mesures renvoyant à l’utilisation de données comptables et celles utilisant des
informations boursières (Rahman et Limmack, 2004 ; Sharma et Ho, 2002). De même, la performance
des fusions-acquisitions est aussi bien évaluée à court terme qu’à long terme (Sudarsanam et Mahate,
2003). Il est à noter également que très peu de recherches en finance, contrairement à celles en
stratégie, utilisent des mesures subjectives. Dans cette configuration, la performance – assimilée à la
réussite ou à l’échec d’une fusion-acquisition – peut être évaluée, par exemple, au travers de la
perception des acteurs quant à l’atteinte des objectifs fixés (Levant, 2000).
Au sein de ces grandes catégories de mesures de la performance, plusieurs méthodes
d’évaluation sont recensées : dès lors, au vu de cette multiplicité et « malgré les nombreuses
recherches effectuées, il n’existe aucun consensus, selon les disciplines, concernant les critères de
mesure de la performance d’une acquisition » (Zollo et Meier, 2008, p. 55).
La réalisation d’une revue de la littérature de travaux réalisés en la matière est une approche
pouvant aider à améliorer notre compréhension du concept de performance. Ainsi, par la mise en
perspective des méthodes utilisées et des résultats dégagés, nous allons tenter d’apporter quelques
éléments explicatifs quant aux divergences constatées et de souligner la présence de convergences.
Mais, au préalable, il nous faut déterminer la méthodologie utilisée pour sélectionner les recherches
empiriques sur lesquelles se fonde notre revue de la littérature.
1.2. Méthodologie
Cette revue de la littérature s’appuie sur quatorze articles. La base de données EPSCO a été
utilisée pour les sélectionner. Dans ce cadre, nous avons déterminé deux types de critères : la présence
de mots clés dans le titre de l’article, « (merger) or (acquisition) » et « performance », ainsi que sa
parution dans une revue financière française ou internationale, comme Financial Management,
Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting,
Comptabilité-Contrôle-Audit, Finance, Finance-Contrôle-Stratégie. Enfin, seules les études
empiriques ont été conservées. Les quatorze articles de cette revue de la littérature ont été publiés entre
1973 et 2007, dont la moitié avant 2000 ; notons qu’une seule des études retenues est francophone.
Pour chacun de ces articles, nous avons focalisé notre attention sur les éléments suivants :
l’objet de recherche, la période d’observation, la période utilisée pour sélectionner les échantillons
ainsi que leurs caractéristiques, les mesures de performance, les résultats obtenus et les facteurs
explicatifs du niveau de performance évalué. Les théories fondatrices de ces études seront également
analysées.
L’analyse de la performance des fusions-acquisitions se réalise à court terme et/ou à long
terme. Dans les recherches sélectionnées, aucune ne s’intéresse exclusivement aux modifications
intervenues à l’annonce de l’opération (cf. Tableau 2).
16
Tableau 2 : Objet de recherche et période d’observation de la performance des fusions-acquisitions
Auteur(s)
Agrawal, Jaffe et
Mandelker (1992)
Alexandridis,
Antoniou et
Petmezas (2007)
Brown, Finn et
Hope (2000)
Cornett et
Tehranian (1992)
Healy, Palepu et
Ruback (1992)
Hoshino (1982)
Levant (2000)
Melicher et Rush
(1974)
Olson et Pagano
(2005)
Rahman et
Limmack (2004)
Rau et Vermaelen
(1998)
Reid (1973)
Sharma et Ho
(2002)
Sudarsanam et
Mahate (2003)
Performance post-fusion des acquéreurs
Période
d’observation
1 à 60 mois
Divergence d’opinion sur la valeur de l’acquéreur avant
l’acquisition et performance à long terme de l’opération
12 mois et 36
mois
Impact des provisions sur la performance à long terme
des fusions-acquisitions
Performance des grandes fusions de banques
-12 à 36 mois
Objet de recherche
Evolutions de performance post-fusion pour l’acquéreur
et la cible
Comparaison de la performance des fusions
d’entreprises au Japon
Impact des systèmes de contrôle sur la performance
Performance des acquisitions conglomérales
Effets de la croissance durable sur la performance à long
terme
Performance des acquisitions d’entreprises malaisiennes
Performance à long terme des acquéreurs après une
fusion ou une acquisition
Performance des fusions dans l’industrie pétrolière aux
Etats-Unis
Synergies et performance opérationnelle des fusionsacquisitions
Impacts des caractéristiques des acquéreurs sur la
performance à court et long terme
Impacts des caractéristiques des acquéreurs et de
l’opération sur la performance à long terme
-36 à -12 et 1 à 36
mois
-60 à -12 mois et
12 à 60 mois
-60 à -12 mois et
12 à 60 mois
-1 et 60 mois
0 à 36 mois
-48 à -12 et 1 à 60
mois
1 à 36 mois
0 à 60 mois
-36 à -12 et 1 à 36
mois
0 à 36 mois
-1 à 750 jours
Elles se concentrent, en effet, sur la performance à plus long terme : à trois ou cinq ans
principalement. Le mois ou l’année de l’opération n’est pas toujours inclus dans la période
d’observation (Healy, Palepu et Ruback, 1992 ; Rahman et Limmack, 2004). Lorsque l’évaluation de
la performance s’appuie sur des données comptables, cette éviction s’explique par le fait que le choix
de la méthode de comptabilisation utilisée impacte les résultats. En présence de données boursières, la
variation des cours à l’annonce du rapprochement peut-être définie comme l’estimation des résultats
tels qui sont attendus par les acteurs. Or, ceux-ci n’ont pas à disposition toutes les informations
nécessaires pour leur permettent d’évaluer l’opération sur le long terme. Ceci ne remet pas en question
l’efficience du marché : il est efficient au regard des informations dont il dispose. Certains auteurs
préfèrent donc exclure cette période de leur analyse pour ne pas biaiser leurs résultats.
Dans les études retenues, certains auteurs s’attachent principalement à évaluer la performance
des fusions-acquisitions (Agrawal et al., 1992 ; Cornett et Tehranian, 1992) alors que d’autres se
concentrent sur l’influence que peut avoir un facteur sur la performance (Brown, Finn et Hope, 2000 ;
Levant, 2000).
Le tableau 3 reprend la période de sélection de l’échantillon ainsi que ses caractéristiques. La
fourchette des années choisies s’étale de 1955 à 2002, partant ainsi des premières années de fort
développement des fusions-acquisitions et allant jusqu’au début de la dernière décennie, en raison de
la nécessaire prise de recul dans les recherches portant sur le long terme. La majorité de ces recherches
empiriques s’intéresse plus particulièrement à une vague de fusions-acquisitions, celle des années
1980-1990, c’est pourquoi la durée de sélection est, dans la majorité des études, inférieure à 10 ans.
Soulignons toutefois la recherche menée par Agrawal et al. (1992) qui se concentre sur les années
17
1955 à 1987, soit 33 ans. Le tableau 3 souligne aussi la diversité des caractéristiques des échantillons
au-delà de la période de sélection. Une première différenciation peut s’opérer quant à la nature des
opérations sélectionnées (fusions, acquisitions, fusions-acquisitions, opérations conglomérales ou non,
etc.). Aussi, en raison des spécificités propres à chaque domaine d’activités, les échantillons sont
constitués principalement soit d’entreprises industrielles, soit de banques ; elles sont majoritairement
de taille importante avec un acquéreur (au moins) coté en bourse. Enfin, un grand spectre de taille
d’échantillon est présent : de 15 à plus de 4 600 opérations.
Ce rapide aperçu des recherches empiriques contenues dans notre revue de la littérature reflète
la grande diversité des études réalisées au sein de ce domaine de recherche. Dès lors, l’analyse des
différentes méthodologies utilisées pour l’évaluation de la performance et des résultats qui en
ressortent doit être effectuée avec précaution, notamment au regard de notre objectif de mieux
comprendre les conclusions des études précédentes.
Tableau 3 : Etudes empiriques menées sur la performance des fusions-acquisitions
Auteur(s)
Agrawal, Jaffe et
Mandelker (1992)
Période
1955-1987
Alexandridis,
Antoniou et
Petmezas (2007)
Brown, Finn et
Hope (2000)
Cornett et
Tehranian (1992)
1986-2002
Healy, Palepu et
Ruback (1992)
Hoshino (1982)
1979 - mi-1984
Levant (2000)
1989 - midécembre 1995
1982-1987
1970
1967-1970
1991-1995
Melicher et Rush
(1974)
Olson et Pagano
(2005)
Rahman et
Limmack (2004)
Rau et Vermaelen
(1998)
1960-1969
Reid (1973)
1961-1968
Sharma et Ho
(2002)
Sudarsanam et
Mahate (2003)
1986-1991
1987-1997
1988-1992
1980-1991
1983-1995
Echantillon(s)
937 fusions et 227 acquisitions (quasi-exhaustif pour les
opérations impliquant des acquéreurs du NYSE et des
cibles du NYSE/AMEX)
4 641 acquisitions impliquant uniquement des firmes
anglaises
150 firmes cotées anglaises ayant une importante activité
d’acquisition
15 acquisitions étatiques dans le secteur bancaire et 15
non étatiques dont le prix d’achat est supérieur à 100
millions de dollars et dont la cible est cotée en bourse
50 fusions industrielles impliquant les cibles de plus
grande taille et dont l’acquéreur est américain
15 fusions japonaises
90 fusions japonaises
55 questionnaires réalisés auprès de groupes français de
taille moyenne, ayant procédé à des acquisitions
amicales d'entreprises françaises
132 fusions-acquisitions (61 firmes conglomérales et 71
non conglomérales)
106 fusions de banques américaines cotées en bourse
113 prises de contrôle d’entreprises malaisiennes (non
cotées) par un acquéreur coté sur la bourse malaisienne
3 169 fusions et 348 acquisitions (échantillon complet)
709 fusions et 278 acquisitions (uniquement les
opérations impliquant des cibles cotées)
25 plus grands groupes américains réalisant de
nombreuses fusions (8 dans le secteur pétrolier)
36 acquisitions impliquant des entreprises australiennes,
compagnies publiques du secteur industriel
519 acquisitions anglaises réussies
Avant de procéder plus particulièrement à l’analyse de la mesure et des déterminants de la
performance des fusions-acquisitions, nous devons revenir aux théories mobilisées dans ce champ de
recherche. Les trois théories qui constituent les fondements principaux des études empiriques de la
performance des fusions-acquisitions doivent en effet être exposées : la théorie de l’efficience des
marchés, la théorie de free cash-flows et la théorie du marché de contrôle des firmes. La théorie de
l’efficience des marchés (Fama, 1965 ; Fama et al., 1969) se concentre sur le marché et les décisions
18
financières. Selon cette théorie, un marché financier est efficient si, et seulement si, « compte tenu des
informations disponibles, les cours réels représentent, à tout moment, une très bonne estimation des
valeurs intrinsèques [des actifs cotés sur ce marché] » (Fama, 1965 ; p. 90). Elle constitue le
fondement de « la méthodologie de l’étude d’évènement [qui] définit ainsi la performance d’une
entreprise en termes de variations de sa valeur boursière » (Hubler et Meschi, 2000 ; p. 87). Cette
méthodologie est classiquement utilisée (plus de la moitié des études empiriques sélectionnées se
fondent sur celle-ci) pour mesurer la performance des fusions-acquisitions : les cours des titres,
notamment à l’annonce de ces opérations, devraient intégrer cette nouvelle information et par
conséquent fournir une évaluation de celle-ci. C’est pourquoi le concept de synergie est associé à cette
théorie : selon celui-ci, la création de valeur liée à une fusion-acquisition résulte principalement de la
réunion des firmes (Meier et Schier, 2009). La théorie des free cash-flows étudie la politique de
financement des entreprises et ses impacts sur les prises de contrôle (Jensen, 1986). Ainsi, le recours à
l’endettement permettrait de réduire le pouvoir discrétionnaire des dirigeants, grâce à la discipline
imposée par le service de la dette. Selon Jensen (1986) les acquisitions financées par liquidités (ou par
dette) auraient une performance supérieure à celles qui le sont par actions. Parmi les recherches
retenues, cinq se sont intéressées à ce mode de financement de l’opération en tant que facteur
explicatif de la performance et tendent globalement à confirmer les anticipations de Jensen (1886). La
théorie des free cash-flows est aussi mobilisée pour expliquer que l’acquéreur tend à surpayer la cible
quant elle présente des free cash-flows abondants. Enfin, le dernier fondement théorique a trait pour
partie au champ de la gouvernance. Le marché de contrôle des firmes (Manne, 1965 ; Jensen, 1988) est
gage d’efficacité de gestion car les équipes dirigeantes se retrouvent en concurrence sur le marché et
leurs entreprises sont susceptibles d’être la proie d’une prise de contrôle si les actionnaires ne sont pas
satisfaits des décisions stratégiques actuelles. Ainsi, la réalisation de fusions-acquisitions permettrait
d’améliorer la performance des entreprises dans la mesure où un remplacement de l’équipe dirigeante
s’opère. Quelques unes des études empiriques retenues s’intéressent à ce facteur. Notons par ailleurs
que Rahman et Limmack (2004) obtiennent des résultats contradictoires : aucune différence
significative n’est observée entre la performance des opérations qui ont engendré un changement de
l’équipe dirigeante (hausse non significative de 2%) et la performance de celles qui ont vu leur équipe
dirigeante conservée dans l’année qui suit l’opération (hausse significative de 4%). Les auteurs
expliquent cette divergence par les particularités de leur échantillon. Il s’agit effectivement
d’entreprises malaisiennes non cotées qui ont convenu de leur rachat.
Les fondements théoriques exposés constituent ceux qui sont principalement mobilisés par les
études empiriques de la performance des fusions-acquisitions. Le cadre théorique ayant été présenté,
les méthodologies de mesure, les résultats obtenus ainsi que les facteurs explicatifs de la performance
des fusions-acquisitions peuvent désormais être analysés.
2. Mesures et déterminants de la performance des fusions-acquisitions
Les études empiriques réalisées sur les fusions-acquisitions se structurent traditionnellement en
deux volets : l’évaluation de la performance de ces opérations et l’identification de facteurs ayant trait
aux caractéristiques des opérations, de la cible et/ou de l’acquéreur et influençant la performance
constatée des fusions-acquisitions.
2.1. Performance des fusions-acquisitions ?
Les mesures de la performance des fusions-acquisitions font appel à deux grandes approches :
la performance boursière et la performance économique. La première s’appuie sur les réactions du
marché boursier pour estimer s’il a été opportun de réaliser cette opération. La seconde a recours à des
données issues de la comptabilité pour réaliser cette estimation. Ces deux méthodes sont utilisées dans
les articles retenus pour notre revue de la littérature. Le tableau 4 reprend les indicateurs de mesure
mobilisés par les auteurs ainsi que les résultats obtenus.
19
L’approche fondée sur la performance boursière des fusions-acquisitions utilise principalement
la méthodologie de l’étude d’évènement. L’utilisation de cette méthodologie repose sur l’utilisation
d’un modèle de marché créé par Fama et al. en 1969. Initialement reposant sur l’hypothèse
d’efficience de marché, les études d’évènement s’appuient désormais sur l’hypothèse semi-forte
d’efficience des marchés énoncée par Jensen (1978). Celle-ci présente des caractéristiques beaucoup
moins contraignantes que l’hypothèse forte d’efficience des marchés, ce qui a permis de répondre aux
nombreuses critiques formulées suite aux premières recherches utilisant les études d’évènement.
Celles-ci « consistent à comparer la rentabilité observée d’une action avec la rentabilité théorique
qu’elle aurait eue sur la même période, compte tenu de l’évolution du marché, si l’évènement (en
l’occurrence l’opération de fusions-acquisitions), n’avait pas été annoncé » (Albouy, 2000 ; p. 72).
Cette méthodologie a été fortement mobilisée par les premières études s’intéressant aux impacts sur la
performance de l’annonce d’une fusion-acquisition. En revanche, son utilisation pour étudier l’impact
de ces opérations sur la performance des firmes à long terme est plus contestée. La méthodologie des
études d’évènement a donc tenté de s’adapter, en élaborant des outils plus sophistiqués, pour être
applicable à la période ex post. Ainsi, Albouy (2000) distingue trois types de démarche : le modèle à
trois facteurs de Fama et French (1993), l’utilisation de portefeuilles de références et la méthode des
firmes de contrôle. Ces méthodologies préconisent un ajustement en termes de taille et de risque.
Nous avons remarqué dans la partie précédente que les recherches retenues s’attachent
principalement à évaluer la performance à long terme des opérations. Elles sont sept à utiliser cette
méthodologie pour approcher les impacts possibles d’une fusion-acquisition sur la performance. Parmi
celles-ci, deux recherches se fondent exclusivement sur cette méthodologie, mais seulement après
avoir réalisé des modifications pour adapter le modèle aux biais engendrés par une approche à plus
long terme. Agrawal et al. (1992) et Rau et Vermaelen (1998) procèdent ainsi à des ajustements par la
taille et le risque des firmes (en effet, les entreprises à faible capitalisation boursière (ou celles ayant
un rapport valeur de marché sur valeur comptable faible) enregistrent généralement des rentabilités
plus élevées et un niveau de risque plus faible). Les autres études mobilisent conjointement des outils
de l’approche économique qui se révèle être prépondérante. En effet, les études d’évènement servent
majoritairement à évaluer les rentabilités anormales constatées à l’annonce de fusions-acquisitions
pour déterminer, par la suite, s’il existe une corrélation entre performance à court terme et à long
terme. Sur le plan théorique, cette démarche conduit à éprouver la forme semi-forte d’efficience des
marchés.
Cornett et Tehranian (1992) et Healy et al. (1992) identifient ainsi l’effet positif de l’annonce
d’une fusion-acquisition sur la performance à court terme. Plus précisément, ils observent des gains
positifs pour les actionnaires de la cible et non significatifs pour les actionnaires des acquéreurs ; ces
conclusions sont similaires à celles de nombreuses recherches (Navatte et Schier, 2008). Pour la
performance à long terme, les recherches utilisant les études d’évènement convergent vers une
dégradation des résultats suite à une fusion-acquisition (Agrawal et al., 1992 ; Brown et al., 2000 ; Rau
et Vermaelen, 1998 (pour les fusions)).
L’approche fondée sur la performance économique des fusions-acquisitions mobilise la
constitution de deux échantillons : celui comprenant les opérations étudiées et un échantillon de
contrôle. Ce dernier est constitué de firmes comparables qui vont permettre de déterminer si les
fusions-acquisitions conduisent à des performances supérieures ou inférieures à celles qui auraient été
constatées sans la réalisation des rapprochements d’entreprises. Ainsi, les chercheurs comparent des
indicateurs (dont le nombre peut varier fortement) calculés ex ante et ex post, pour les deux
échantillons, afin d’évaluer l’influence des fusions-acquisitions sur la performance à long terme des
entreprises.
Parmi les études empiriques sélectionnées qui utilisent cette méthodologie, nous pouvons
constater l’emploi important des « cash-flows » comme indicateur de mesure (cinq auteurs l’ont
mobilisé). Une grande variété d’indicateurs est également dénombrée : ils sont liés à la taille, à la
rentabilité ou encore à la structure financière des entités. Les recherches mobilisent soit quelques
indicateurs (Hoshino, 1982), soit un nombre plus important, ce qui conduit les auteurs à les regrouper
en grandes catégories (Melicher et Rush, 1974 ; Reid, 1973).
20
Cinq recherches ont recours à cette méthodologie : deux évaluent une hausse de la performance
à long terme (Hoshino, 1982 ; Olson et Pagano, 2005) et trois une baisse (Reid, 1973 ; Sharma et Ho,
2002 ; Sudarsanam et Mahate, 2003). Les études constatant une hausse de la performance à long terme
font appel à des indicateurs différents, la première étant axée sur la rentabilité, le risque et les
liquidités, et la seconde se concentrant sur un modèle d’évaluation de croissance durable. Nous
rappelons également que ces constats résultent d’études menées sur des échantillons n’ayant pas de
caractéristiques proches. Quant aux conclusions négatives de ces rapprochements d’entreprises, elles
se fondent toutes sur des indicateurs de rentabilité. Les spécificités pouvant être notées relèvent du
nombre d’indicateurs et d’échantillons de contrôle ou encore de la combinaison de ces indicateurs au
calcul des cash-flows. En outre, Sudarsanam et Mahate (2003) utilisent quatre échantillons de contrôle
en réponse au débat sur les caractéristiques du benchmark utilisé et ses conséquences sur les résultats
obtenus (Graham et al., 2002) ; ils visent ainsi à améliorer la robustesse de leur étude et à faciliter sa
comparaison avec d’autres. Aussi, nous pouvons souligner, de manière tout aussi marquée que pour
l’approche boursière, la volonté de modifier, d’améliorer la méthodologie d’évaluation de la
performance suite aux divergences émergentes des recherches empiriques.
Parmi les cinq auteurs ayant estimé la performance sur un horizon à long terme au moyen des
cash-flows, trois identifient une surperformance (Cornett et Tehranian, 1992 ; Healy et al., 1992 ;
Rahman et Limmack, 2004) et deux une sous-performance (Brown, 2000 ; Sharma et Ho, 2002). Les
premiers auteurs, concluant à une hausse des gains à long terme, utilisent la même méthodologie
(définit par Healy et al., 1992). Il nous faut remarquer également que les échantillons utilisés ne
comportent pas nécessairement, là-encore, des caractéristiques proches. En effet, l’étude menée par
Rahman et Limmack (2004) s’applique à des opérations impliquant des firmes malaisiennes. Dans
cette zone géographique, les fusions-acquisitions ne se développent que depuis récemment et les cibles
impliquées dans ces processus ne sont pas cotées alors que les deux autres recherches se concentrent
sur des firmes cotées à la bourse de New-York (l’une dans le secteur industriel, l’autre dans le secteur
bancaire). Ces caractéristiques ne semblent donc pas impacter les résultats dégagés par l’utilisation de
cette méthodologie. Les auteurs soulignant une sous-performance s’appuient sur des calculs de cashflows différents de leurs collègues ; Sharma et Ho (2002) procèdent notamment à des ajustements
grâce à des indicateurs financiers plus nombreux. Cela tend à expliquer les résultats contradictoires
obtenus.
La méthodologie s’appuyant sur les cash-flows a, par ailleurs, été incluse traditionnellement au
sein de l’approche économique. Bien qu’elle s’en approche fortement, il faut souligner que ces auteurs
la présentent davantage comme une voie alternative, puisque chacune des deux approches impactent la
mesure des cash-flows, permettant d’évincer des biais inhérents à chacune d’entre elles.
Enfin, une étude utilise une mesure subjective de la performance des fusions-acquisitions de
manière ex post : la perception des acteurs de l’atteinte des objectifs financiers et stratégiques ; il s’agit
aussi de l’unique recherche sélectionnée dont l’échantillon est constitué d’entreprises françaises. Cette
méthodologie n’est que très peu mobilisée dans le champ de l’évaluation de la performance des
fusions-acquisitions en finance. Les résultats dégagés reflètent l’absence de consensus sur son
estimation à long terme : plus ou moins la moitié des opérations se révèle réussie, plus ou moins le
tiers constitue des échecs et plus ou moins le tiers enregistre des performances mitigées.
21
Tableau 4 : Mesures et performance des fusions-acquisitions
Auteur(s)
Mesures de la performance
Agrawal, Jaffe et
Mandelker (1992)
Alexandridis,
Antoniou et
Petmezas (2007)
Brown, Finn et
Hope (2000)
Cornett et
Tehranian (1992)
Rentabilités anormales (deux
méthodologies de calcul )
Rentabilités anormales
Dispersion des prévisions des
analystes
Cash-flows
Cash-flows opérationnels
Healy, Palepu et
Ruback (1992)
Hoshino (1982)
5 indicateurs financiers (valeur
nette/total des actifs et passifs ;
coefficient de liquidités ; ratio
d’endettement ; taux de
rotation et résultat net/total des
actifs et passifs)
Levant (2000)
Perception de l’atteinte des
objectifs financiers et/ou
stratégiques
4 groupes de mesures liés : à la
taille, au résultat, aux facteurs
influençant le résultat et à la
performance à 5 ans
Modèle de croissance durable
(rendement des actifs,
distribution de dividendes et
fonds propres)
Melicher et Rush
(1974)
Olson et Pagano
(2005)
Rahman et
Limmack (2004)
Rau et Vermaelen
(1998)
Reid (1973)
Sharma et Ho
(2002)
Sudarsanam et
Mahate (2003)
Rentabilités anormales (après
ajustements liés à la taille et au
book-to-market)
3 variables liées à la taille et 12
liées à la rentabilité des
actionnaires
Cash-flow opérationnels, , marge
bénéficiaire, earnings per share
ROA, ROE
Price-to-book et market-to-book
value (utilisation de 4 modèles
de benchmark)
Résultats
Actionnaires de l’acquéreur : pertes d’environ 10%,
5 ans après la fusion
Rendements négatifs à un an (trois ans) d’environ 0,38% (-0,58%) par mois
Prévisions des analystes : résultats similaires
Baisse des cash-flows et des rentabilités anormales
sur la période post-acquisition
Performance des banques fusionnées supérieure à
celle de l’industrie bancaire
Relation fortement positive entre la hausse des
cash-flows opérationnels après la fusion et les
rentabilités anormales constatées à l’annonce de
l’opération
Amélioration de la performance post-fusion : cashflows supérieurs à ceux constatés dans les secteurs
d’activités des entreprises.
Relation fortement positive entre la hausse des
cash-flows opérationnels après la fusion et les
rentabilités anormales constatées à l’annonce
Echantillon de 15 fusions :
Hausse des liquidités, mais baisse de la rentabilité et
hausse du risque après une fusion
Echantillon de 90 fusions :
Résultats, en moyenne, supérieurs pour les firmes
fusionnées par rapport à des firmes d’une même
industrie
Succès de l’opération : entre 40 et 57%
Mitigé : entre 19 et 43%
Echec : entre 20 et 38%
Absence d’étude de la performance pour
l’échantillon global
Performance supérieure des banques ayant
fusionnées par rapport à l’échantillon de contrôle
Performance opérationnelle, à 5 ans, supérieure
pour les acquisitions par rapport à l’échantillon de
contrôle
Performance plus faible (plus forte), à 3 ans, pour
les firmes fusionnées (les acquéreurs) par rapport à
l’échantillon de contrôle
Performance supérieure pour les firmes ne réalisant
pas de fusions
Performance supérieure mais non significative pour
les firmes pétrolières réalisant des fusions par
rapport aux plus grandes firmes du secteur
Pas d’amélioration de la performance opérationnelle
après une fusion-acquisition
Rendements négatifs mais non significatifs à
l’annonce
Rendements négatifs et significatifs à 750 jours
Bien que la problématique d’évaluation de la performance des fusions-acquisitions ait fait
l’objet de nombreux travaux empiriques, des questions fondamentales persistent ; c’est pourquoi elle
demeure toujours une piste de recherches futures (Agrawal et al., 1992 ; Healy et al., 1992 ; Devos et
22
al., 2009). La complexité des fusions-acquisitions et leur caractère multidimensionnel a ainsi conduit
les auteurs à développer de nombreuses méthodologies afin de tenter d’éclaircir cette absence de
consensus à long terme. Certains auteurs évoquent effectivement la possibilité que les résultats obtenus
soient le fruit de biais méthodologiques et d’échantillons de contrôle non adaptés (Graham et al.,
2002 ; Healy et al., 1992 ; Rahman et Limmack, 2004). Dès lors, la littérature préconise de multiplier
les méthodologies et les périodes d’observation (Schoenberg, 2006 ; Zollo et Meier, 2008) dans le but
de réduire leurs biais et d’accroire la robustesse des résultats obtenus.
2.2. Déterminants de la performance des fusions-acquisitions
La littérature s’est intéressée aux différents critères permettant d’expliquer la performance des
fusions-acquisitions afin de mieux comprendre ses mécanismes et de dégager des pistes permettant
d’améliorer les résultats enregistrés par ces opérations. Le tableau 5 reprend les principaux facteurs
identifiés dans les recherches retenues. L’examen de ce tableau nous amène à souligner quatre
déterminants qui sont le plus souvent analysés : le degré de proximité des activités, la valorisation de
l’acquéreur, le mode de financement et la taille relative de la cible par rapport à l’acquéreur.
Les recherches portant exclusivement sur le degré de proximité des activités se sont
concentrées sur la comparaison des performances enregistrées par les opérations de recentrage et par
celles de diversification. La stratégie de diversification a été remise en cause dans les années 1980 en
raison de résultats décevants et a alors été suivie par une vague de recentrage. Dans les études que
nous avons sélectionnées, quatre auteurs se penchent sur cette dimension : deux relèvent un impact
positif de la proximité (Healy et al., 1992 ; Hoshino, 1982) et deux ne constatent aucune influence
(Melicher et Rush, 1974 ; Sharma et Ho, 2002). Un consensus semble néanmoins s’être dessiné et vise
à reconnaître le degré de proximité comme un facteur pouvant engendrer un accroissement de la
performance.
La question de la nature de l’acquéreur, « glamour firms » ou « value firms », a été traitée à de
multiples reprises dans la littérature. Au sein des études que nous avons retenues, seules deux
s’intéressent à cette dimension (Rau et Vermaelen (1998) ; Sudarsanam et Mahate ; 2003). Les
« glamours firms » (aussi dénommées « valeur de croissance ») regroupent des entreprises ayant un
ratio valeur de marché/valeur comptable (i.e. un price-to-book ratio (PBR)) élevé. Leur valeur
financière est ainsi fortement élevée par rapport à leurs actifs. Au travers de l’importance de ce ratio, le
marché signifie qu’il anticipe un potentiel de croissance. Ces entreprises enregistrent une croissance et
des rentabilités importantes (exemple : Iliad – groupe détenant notamment Free – dont le ratio dépasse
13). A l’inverse, les « value firms » (aussi dénommées « valeur de rendement »), qui ont un ratio
faible, sont représentatives d’entreprises dont les activités sont arrivées à maturité et qui dégagent une
rentabilité importante (exemple : Renault dont le ratio atteint à peine à 1,5). Cette distinction s’est
avérée porteuse pour l’étude de la performance à long terme des fusions-acquisitions. Les recherches
empiriques font en effet état de performance nettement supérieure pour les « glamour firms » : Rau et
Vermaelen (1998) constatent un taux de rentabilité de 4% pour les « glamour firms » alors qu’il
s’élève à 8% pour les « value firms » pour ce qui concerne les acquisitions, cette différence est
d’autant plus édifiante pour les fusions avec des taux de rentabilité de -17% et de 16% respectivement.
Cette dimension a donc un impact fort sur la performance des fusions-acquisitions. Elle est souvent
étudiée de manière conjointe au facteur explicatif qui suit.
Le mode de financement des fusions-acquisitions comporte trois grandes alternatives : actions,
liquidités ou financement mixte. L’acquéreur, disposant d’informations plus fines sur son entreprise et
l’opération de rapprochement, aura tendance à opter pour le financement par actions lorsqu’il estime
que le marché surévalue ses titres. Inversement, il aura tendance à financer la fusion-acquisition par
liquidités. Ainsi, dans la littérature, plusieurs études tendent à montrer que le financement par actions
engendre des rentabilités anormales négatives à long terme, alors que les fusions-acquisitions
financées par liquidités enregistrent des rentabilités anormales positives (Agrawal al., 1992 ; Rau et
Vermaelen, 1998 ; Sudarsanam et Mahate, 2003). Bien que Healy et al. (1992) et Sharma et Ho (2002)
ne constatent pas d’influence significative, un financement via liquidités est préconisé fréquemment,
celui-ci étant un signal positif pour le marché. Cette tendance s’ancre dans la théorie de l’agence : en
ayant recours à de l’endettement, la contrainte du remboursement pèse sur le dirigeant qui voit ses
23
intérêts se rapprocher de ceux des actionnaires, d’où une réduction des coûts d’agence. La
problématique de l’impact du mode de financement sur la performance à long terme d’une fusionacquisition est analysée par plusieurs auteurs avec celle liée aux effets de la nature de l’acquéreur
(« glamour firms » versus « value firms »). Ainsi, les opérations financées par actions enregistreraient
des performances d’autant plus faibles qu’elles sont réalisées par des « value firms » (Rau et
Vermaelen, 1998).
La taille relative de la cible par rapport à l’acquéreur a été également étudiée pour son impact
sur la performance par de nombreux auteurs. Dans les articles que nous avons sélectionnés, Agrawal et
al. (1992) et Sharma et Ho (2002) soulignent l’absence d’influence de la taille de la cible sur la
performance à long terme. Une fusion-acquisition impliquant une cible de taille importante par rapport
à l’acquéreur est susceptible de générer des synergies de plus grande envergure. Toutefois, dans cette
configuration, il est d’autant plus probable que les problématiques de gestion post-acquisition soient
conséquentes. Au final, ces deux effets se compenseraient.
Ces quatre déterminants dégagent des pistes probantes de facteurs ayant ou non des influences
sur la performance à long terme des fusions-acquisitions. Les recherches retenues investiguent
également d’autres sources potentielles de performance qui n’ont pas été reprises par d’autres au sein
de notre sélection (remplacement de l’équipe dirigeante, planification de l’opération, prévisions des
analystes, etc.). Ces diverses investigations permettent d’éclaircir les facteurs pouvant impacter la
réussite d’une fusion-acquisition. En outre, un pan important de la littérature se concentre plus
spécifiquement sur les conditions de réalisation d’une forme particulière de fusion-acquisition, à savoir
les OPA (Offres Publiques d’Achat). Ces travaux tentent notamment d’évaluer les impacts des
mécanismes anti-OPA sur la performance de ces opérations (Cremers, Nair et Wei, 2007 ; Masulis,
Wang et Xie, 2007). En management stratégique, de nombreux auteurs se sont attachés à déterminer
l’impact de la culture sur la performance des fusions-acquisitions, mais ils s’avèrent que les résultats
obtenus ne permettent pas d’aboutir à un consensus (Teerikangas et Very, 2006).
Conclusion
Les fusions-acquisitions sont un champ d’investigations important de la recherche en finance.
La performance effective de ces opérations soulève toujours autant de questionnements. Actuellement,
avec le regain de croissance de ces opérations, l’évaluation de leurs impacts demeure d’autant plus
essentielle. De nombreuses recherches ont tenté de déterminer si les fusions-acquisitions sont
profitables. A court terme, un consensus tend à reconnaître leur effet positif pour les actionnaires de la
cible, alors qu’ils seraient non significatifs voire négatifs pour les actionnaires de l’acquéreur. A long
terme, les différentes méthodologies utilisées ne permettent pas de trancher quant à la performance des
fusions-acquisitions.
Dès lors, les auteurs préconisent de mobiliser plusieurs approches afin de faciliter les
comparaisons avec les autres recherches réalisées et d’éliminer les biais ayant trait à une
méthodologie. Concernant la taille de l’échantillon, le recueil d’un nombre important d’opérations
semble être à privilégier dans une optique de généralisation. A l’inverse, les échantillons de petite
taille seraient pertinents pour approcher de plus près les mécanismes en œuvre. Aussi, la réalisation
d’études cliniques est une voie à envisager pour affiner la compréhension du processus de fusionsacquisitions et déterminer les facteurs clés affectant la performance à long terme.
Au-delà de la mesure de la performance et de ses déterminants, les motivations expliquant le
développement des fusions-acquisitions sont aussi essentielles ; celles-ci peuvent effectivement
influencer leur réussite à long terme. Une des principales motivations relevée dans la littérature est
l’intérêt personnel des dirigeants. Ainsi, l’étude de ces moteurs est également susceptible d’apporter
quelques éclaircissements sur le paradoxe du fleurissement des fusions-acquisitions en dépit de leurs
résultats mitigés.
24
Tableau 5 : Etudes empiriques menées sur la performance des fusions-acquisitions
Auteur(s)
Agrawal, Jaffe et
Mandelker (1992)
Alexandridis,
Antoniou et
Petmezas (2007)
Brown, Finn et
Hope (2000)
Cornett et
Tehranian (1992)
Healy, Palepu et
Ruback (1992)
Hoshino (1982)
Levant (2000)
Melicher et Rush
(1974)
Olson et Pagano
(2005)
Rahman et
Limmack (2004)
Rau et Vermaelen
(1998)
Reid (1973)
Sharma et Ho
(2002)
Sudarsanam et
Mahate (2003)
Facteurs explicatifs
Taille de la firme par rapport à l’acquéreur, niveau de risque : pas d’impact
Hypothèse de la lenteur d’ajustement du marché post-fusion non vérifiée
Financement par actions : impact négatif par rapport à un financement par
liquidités (pour les acquisitions résultat peu significatif car peu
d’observations))
Forte divergence des prévisions des analystes avant l’acquisition :
surévaluation à court-terme et donc rendements négatifs à long-terme au
travers d’une correction qui s’effectue graduellement
Provisions élevées : baisse des flux de trésorerie, d’où la baisse du cours des
actions
Hausse de la capacité à attirer les liquidités et les demandes de prêts, de la
productivité des employés et de la rentabilité des actifs
Pas d’impact du mode de financement
Impact positif du degré de proximité des activités fusionnées
Hausse de la productivité des actifs
Pas de réduction du capital et des investissements en R&D à long-terme, qui
sont proches de ceux réalisés dans leur secteur
Importance de la croissance économique et du progrès technique
« Comportement d'acquisition » : effet positif de l’implication de l’acquéreur,
du système de contrôle stratégique, d’un redéploiement rapide et planifié, de
la stratégie d’acquisition (secteurs d’activités proches)
Pas de différence entre fusions conglomérales et non conglomérales
Mais effet de levier financier plus important pour les conglomérats que les
non-conglomérats, d’où la réduction rapide des ratios d’endettement,
favorisée aussi par le financement par des valeurs mobilières
Estimation du taux de croissance durable avant et après l’opération
Modification possible de la politique de versement de dividendes : impact
positif
Amélioration de la performance grâce à la hausse de la rotation des actifs et
de la marge opérationnelle
Hausse des investissements : non mise en danger de la pérennité de
l’entreprise
Conservation de l’équipe dirigeante : impact positif
Performance passée des acquéreurs : impact positif
Fusions versus acquisitions : performance supérieure des acquisitions
Financement par actions : impact négatif
Performance supérieure des « value firms » par rapport aux « glamour firms»
Caractéristiques non investiguées dans cette recherche
Pas d’impact du type d’acquisition (conglomérats versus non conglomérats),
de mode de financement, de la taille de la cible par rapport à l’acquéreur, de
la prime d’acquisition et du degré de proximité sur la performance postacquisition
Financement par actions : impact négatif
Performance supérieure des « value firms » par rapport aux « glamour firms»
25
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27
L’INNOVATION DANS LES FIRMES MULTINATIONALES :
UNE REVUE DE LA LITTÉRATURE
Lusine ARZUMANYAN
Doctorante Contractuelle
IAE Lyon, Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3
Centre de recherche Magellan
6 cours Albert Thomas, 69008 Lyon
[email protected]
ABSTRACT
The aim of this paper is to examine the findings of recent studies, through a literature review on
innovation processes in multinational companies.
The objective of this review is to provide a roadmap of the field by highlighting the various empirical
and theoretical issues that have been studied in the literature.
Keywords : Innovation process, multinational company, headquarter, subsidiary, coordination
RESUME
Cette communication a pour objectif d’examiner les études récentes à travers une revue de la littérature
sur les processus d’innovation dans les firmes multinationales.
Le but de cette revue est de fournir une feuille de route de ce domaine en mettant en avant divers
aspects empiriques et théoriques qui ont été étudiés dans la littérature.
Mots clés : Processus d’innovation, firme multinationale, siège, filiale, coordination
Nous avons pu observer, au cours de ces dernières années, un développement continu de la
littérature traitant de l’internationalisation de la production, du développement et du transfert de
technologie par les firmes multinationales (Cantwell, 2010). Ce processus d’internationalisation amène
à l’accroissement des interrogations sur la coordination des activités de production et de recherche et
développement (R&D) au sein des firmes multinationales (Colovic et Mayrhofer, 2008). Selon
Castellani et Zanfei (2006), plus de 95 % des 700 entreprises qui investissent en recherche et
développement (R&D) dans le monde sont des firmes multinationales. Le rapport sur les
investissements en R&D industriels de 2010, publié par la Commission européenne sur 1.400 firmes
multinationales (dont 400 sont originaires de l'Union européenne), classées en fonction de leurs
investissements en R&D (cf. tableau 1), confirme que l’investissement en R&D reste aujourd’hui une
priorité stratégique pour les firmes multinationales, malgré le contexte économique difficile.
28
Tableau 1: Les dix premières FMN en matière d’investissement en R&D dans le monde en 2009
Rang
Firme
multinationale
1
Toyota
2
Roche
3
4
Microsoft
Volkswagen
5
Pfizer
6
Novartis
7
Nokia
Johnson &
Johnson
SanofiAventis
Samsung
Electronics
8
9
10
Secteur
d’activité
Automobile
Pharmaceuti
que
Logiciels
Automobile
Pharmaceuti
que
Pharmaceuti
que
Télécom
Pharmaceuti
que
Pharmaceuti
que
Electronique
Pays
d’origine
Investissement
en R&D
Japon
en
Million
d'€
6 768,46
Suisse
Variation
Investissement en
R&D
Variation
Investissement en
R&D
09/08 en %
08/07 en
%
R&D/chiffre
d’affaires
en %
2009
2008
-5,7
7,6
4,4
3,6
6 401,86
9,1
5
19,4
19,1
Etats-Unis
Allemagne
6 073,20
-3,3
10,4
13,9
15,4
5 790,00
-2,3
20,4
5,7
5,3
Etats-Unis
5 404,13
-2,4
-1,8
15,5
16,5
Suisse
5 156,02
2,5
12,6
16,7
17,4
Finlande
4 997,00
-6,1
0,8
12,2
10,5
Etats-Unis
4 868,87
-7,8
-1,3
11,3
11,9
France
4 569,00
0,2
0,9
15,3
16,5
Corée du
Sud
4 282,00
1,9
10,8
5,4
5,8
Source : Commission européenne (2010).
En 2009 et pour la deuxième année consécutive, le fabricant automobile japonais Toyota est le
premier investisseur mondial en R&D, avec 6,8 milliards d'euros. Trois entreprises de l'Union
européenne figurent dans le classement : Volkswagen, le premier investisseur européen avec 5,8
milliards d'euros, Nokia et Sanofi-Aventis.
Au regard des considérations précédemment évoquées, il paraît essentiel pour une firme
multinationale de pouvoir innover et coordonner une innovation dans ses filiales. Cela lui permettant
d’assurer sa compétitivité et de bénéficier de réels avantages concurrentiels.
Dans ce travail nous essayons d’appréhender l’innovation dans les firmes multinationales sous l’angle
des relations siège-filiales. Dans une première partie, nous définirons le concept d’innovation et de sa
mondialisation par des firmes multinationales. Dans un deuxième temps, nous parlerons de différents
modes de coordination du processus d’innovation au sein des FMNs en essayant de comprendre quels
sont les défis auxquels font face actuellement beaucoup de grandes firmes multinationales.
Le concept d’innovation
Compte tenu de la complexité de l’activité d’innovation, il paraît difficile de dégager une définition
universelle. Selon Schumpeter (1935), la réalisation d’une invention et la mise en pratique de
l’innovation correspondante sont économiquement et sociologiquement deux choses entièrement
différentes. A ce titre, Alter (2002) définit l’invention comme la création d’une nouveauté technique
ou organisationnelle, concernant des biens, des services ou des dispositifs, tandis que l’innovation
représente l’ensemble du processus social et économique amenant l’invention à être finalement utilisée
ou pas. Le terme « innovation » s’applique à la fois au résultat d’un processus créatif (ce qui est
nouveau), et à ce processus même (Mayrhofer et Urban, 2011).
Selon Cantwell (2010), l’innovation peut être définie comme l’introduction de nouveaux produits
et procédés (process). A ce propos, il nous paraît important de rappeler la distinction entre les notions
d’innovation produit et d’innovation process (procédés). Le tableau ci-dessous présente les principales
caractéristiques de chacune d’elle relevés dans la littérature.
29
Tableau 2: Les principales caractéristiques de l’innovation de produit et de l’innovation de
process
Auteurs
Innovation de produit
Innovation de process (procédés)
Johnson, Whittington,
Scholes, Fréry, 2011
concerne le produit ou service
qui est commercialisé,
notamment en termes de
fonctionnalités
Loilier & Tellier
,1999
une offre d’un produit ou service
qui présente au moins une
nouveauté par rapport aux offres
existantes et perçue comme telle
par le marché visé
Schumpeter, 1935 ;
Clark & Fujimoto,
1991
caractérise la manière dont cette
offre est élaborée et distribuée,
notamment en termes de coûts et
de qualité
concerne les transformations des
processus industriels mis en œuvre
pour concevoir, réaliser et
distribuer les produits et services
L’internationalisation de l’innovation par les firmes multinationales
Au cours de ces dernières décennies de nombreuses FMN ont été amenées à réviser la localisation
de leurs activités de production et de R&D afin d’optimiser leur chaîne de valeur globale (Colovic et
Mayrhofer, 2008). Si auparavant ces fonctions étaient centralisées dans les « home-countries » des
firmes multinationales, aujourd’hui nous pouvons observer une tendance réelle à la dispersion
géographique de ces activités, qui peut prendre différentes formes : accords de coopération avec des
partenaires étrangers, acquisitions de sociétés étrangères, délocalisation des activités de R&D, etc.
Michie (1995) identifie trois catégories principales de l’internationalisation d’innovation (cf.
tableau 3).
Tableau 3: Taxinomie de l’internationalisation d’innovation
Catégories
Exploitation à
l’échelle mondiale des
innovations conçues
localement
Génération globale des
innovations
Coopérations globales
techniques et
scientifiques
Acteurs
Personnes
physiques et
morales à but
lucratif
(nationales et
multinationales)
FMNs
Universités et
centres de
recherche
publique
Entreprises
nationales et
multinationales
Formes
Exportation des produits innovants.
Concession des licences d’exploitation et des
brevets.
Fabrication à l’étranger des produits innovants
conçus et développés en central
R&D et activités d’innovation dans les pays
d’origine et d’accueil.
Acquisition des laboratoires existants ou création
ex-nihilo des unités R&D dans les pays
d’accueil.
Projets scientifiques communs.
Echanges scientifiques, années sabbatiques.
Mouvements des étudiants à l’international.
Coopération pour des projets innovants
spécifiques. Accord de production avec échange
de l’information technique et/ou équipement.
Source: élaboré sur la base d’Archibugi et Michie, 1995.
30
Ainsi, même si divers acteurs économiques peuvent entreprendre l’innovation et s’engager dans
son internationalisation, ce sont uniquement les FMN qui peuvent réaliser et contrôler en interne la
conception globale des innovations.
L’innovation au sein des firmes multinationales
Pour atteindre cet objectif, nous avons fait une recherche des articles comprenant les phases
suivantes (cf. figure 1):
Figure 1. Les phases de recherche des articles pour la revue de littérature
Recherche des articles dans
l’EBSCO en utilisant les mots clés
Tri des articles selon les titres et les
résumés
Classification et sélection des
articles bien classés selon l’AERES
Lecture des articles et
identification des principaux
thèmes de recherche dans
l’innovation
Préparation des fiches d’analyse
pour chaque article choisi
Premièrement, nous avons étudié dans la base de données d'articles de recherche EBSCO
(Business source complete) les articles de revues académiques en utilisant les mots clés "innovation
process" et "multinational company". Après cette première sélection, nous avons fait un tri par titres et
résumés. Deuxièmement, parmi les articles choisis, nous avons sélectionné les papiers de revues les
mieux notés par l'AERES. Enfin, durant la lecture de chaque article retenu, une fiche d’analyse a été
préparée avec les informations suivantes:
¾ L’objet de recherche et la problématique
¾ La revue de littérature et le cadre théorique mobilisé
¾ La méthodologie utilisée (qualitative ou quantitative)
¾ Les résultats obtenus
¾ Les apports et les limites de recherche
Le tableau 4 présente un extrait de la revue de littérature qui nous paraît particulièrement
intéressant, car malgré sa taille non exhaustive, il fait un résumé d’un des thèmes principaux de
recherche sur l’innovation : le rôle des filiales dans le processus d’innovation des firmes
multinationales.
31
Tableau 4. Extrait sur des principales recherches sur l’innovation dans les firmes multinationales.
Auteurs
Objets de
Méthodes
Résultats
recherche
Ghoshal et
La création,
Etude empirique
Il apparait que les filiales
Bartlett
l’adaptation et la
basée sur une étude
(les ressources locales) ont
(1988)
diffusion
de cas dans 9 firmes
tendance à faciliter la
d’innovation par
multinationales, et
création et la diffusion
les filiales des
des études multi
d’innovation, mais leur effet
firmes
niveau et multi
sur l’adaptation est peu
multinationales.
indicateur sur 3
concluant.
firmes
multinationales et
une étude avec un
seul indicateur sur
66 firmes
européennes et nord
américaines.
Nobel et
1. Le rôle des
Les propositions ont
Les unités de R&D se
Birkinshaw
unités
été testées en
différencient selon la nature
(1998)
internationales de
envoyant par la voie
de leurs activités, ainsi que
R&D des firmes
électronique un
selon les mécanismes du
multinationales,
questionnaire à 15
contrôle utilisés. L’étude a
2. Les systèmes de
firmes
montré l’existence de
contrôle et de la
internationales
plusieurs types de
communication au
suédoises. L’étude
communication (horizontale
sein des unités de
empirique a été
et verticale) au sein des
R&D.
complétée par 50
firmes multinationales, ainsi
entretiens réalisés
qu’avec les acteurs externes.
dans les unités
internationales de la
R&D.
Reger (2004)
Jouranl of
Les centres
Etude de cas sur la
La capacité des firmes
International
d’excellence de
firme multinationale
multinationales de
Management
recherche
Philips.
coordonner les activités de
géographiquement
leurs unités de R&D (ici
dispersés des
centre d’excellence) est un
firmes
avantage concurrentiel très
multinationales
important et est au cœur de
leur processus
d’apprentissage.
Phene et
L’innovation dans
Revue de la
Les auteurs montrent que la
Almeida
les filiales : le rôle
littérature
connaissance « absorbée »
(2008)
joué par les
de « host country » a une
Journal of
filiales dans
influence positive sur la
International
l’assimilation de
capacité d’innovation des
business
la connaissance.
filiales.
studies.
Les études réalisées sur le processus d’innovation au sein des firmes multinationales montrent que
ces dernières ont augmenté leurs investissements dans les activités de R&D dans les pays étrangers
notamment à partir des années 1980 (Reger, 2004).
32
Auparavant, les unités internationales de R&D avaient été créées pour adapter les innovations aux
demandes des « pays d’accueil » des firmes multinationales (Nobel, Birkinshaw, 1998). Aujourd’hui
ces unités contribuent activement au processus d’innovation en devenant même des centres
d’excellence au niveau mondial pour les firmes multinationales (Reger, 2004). Cette décentralisation
des activités de R&D au sein des filiales provoque des problèmes de communication, de contrôle, de
coordination entre siège et filiales en rendant les relations plus complexes et difficiles à gérer. Pour
mieux coordonner leurs filiales, les firmes multinationales mettent en place des systèmes de contrôle
qui diffèrent d’une unité à l’autre (Nohria et Ghoshal, 1997).
La majorité des recherches est dédiée à l’étude des mécanismes de contrôle et de
communication des relations siège-filiales. Les auteurs affirment que la capacité des firmes
multinationales à coordonner les activités de leurs unités de R&D est un avantage concurrentiel très
important, d’où la nécessité de créer des mécanismes de contrôle et de coordination.
Les nombreux outils de coordination mis en place par les firmes multinationales, représentent tout
de même quelques limites que nous pouvons dénoter dans les articles de recherche. Il s’agit
notamment des indicateurs de mesure de performance de ces outils de coordination qui sont peu
étudiés.
Conclusion
Dans cette communication, au travers de la revue de littérature, nous nous sommes intéressés à
l’innovation au sein des firmes multinationales, en essayant de comprendre son internationalisation par
les firmes multinationales, ses concepts, les relations siège-filiales, etc. Nous avons alors montré la
difficulté de la gestion de l’innovation liée à l’évolution de l’internationalisation du processus
d’innovation et également liée au nombre croissant d’acteurs économiques impliqués dans ce
processus. Dans la majorité des recherches, l’innovation est souvent perçue uniquement comme une
modification du contenu technologique qui améliore ou élargit les fonctions remplies par le produit.
Mais l’innovation peut porter également sur les conditions d’utilisation, de distribution, et, au delà, sur
l’ensemble des prestations offertes au client (Loilier & Tellier, 1999) ; ce qui rend plus complexe la
gestion du processus d’innovation. Les filiales ayant une position d’intermédiaire, entre le siège et les
clients, leur rôle prend toute son importance dans ce processus d’innovation stratégique pour les firmes
(Birkinshaw & Hood, 1998 ; Frost, Birkinshaw & Ensign 2002). Les problèmes relevés sont
notamment liés au contrôle et à la communication entre le siège et les filiales. Plusieurs de leurs
mécanismes sont abordés dans la littérature sur l’innovation, mais il y a un manque d’indicateurs
élaborés pour mesurer la performance de ces outils, ce qui peut faire l’objet de futures recherches.
33
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RELOCALISATION : D’UN SUJET DÉLICAT À UNE
PROPOSITION DE CADRES THÉORIQUES
Jacques BELBENOIT-AVICH
Doctorant
IAE Lyon
6, cours Albert THOMAS BP 8242, 69355 Lyon cedex
[email protected]
Résumé
Ce travail a deux ambitions. La première est de mettre en avant le phénomène des relocalisations. Pour
ce faire, suite à une définition de ce terme, nous avons décidé non pas de faire une revue de littérature
mais de présenter globalement son avancée, en mettant en avant ses apports, ses limites et les
difficultés auxquelles les chercheurs sont confrontés. La deuxième ambition est de souligner la notion
de cadre théorique sur ce thème en proposant particulièrement deux cadres théoriques, à savoir la
théorie des ressources et celle des coûts de transaction.
Summary
This work has to two aims. The first one is to present the relocations. After a definition of this notion,
we have decided not to make a review of literature but to take as a whole its advances by showing its
contributions, its limits and the difficulties the researchers have to face. The second aim is to put
forward theories by suggesting the resource-based theory and the transaction costs theory.
Le choix d’un site lors de l’internationalisation des entreprises est particulièrement important. Dunning
(1980) ainsi que Ferdows (1997) en mentionnent l’importance stratégique en raison des répercussions
sur le long terme au niveau de la compétitivité. Cependant, en pratique, un écart important existe
(Kinkel, 2004). Dans le cas des délocalisations motivées par la réduction de coûts, les décisions sont
souvent prises dans la précipitation et reposent sur des bases fragiles (Kinkel, 2004 ; Van Eenennaam
et al., 1996). Dès lors, elles ne permettent que rarement d’améliorer la position concurrentielle de
l’entreprise par rapport à la stratégie initiale (Kinkel et al., 2004).
Ainsi, il nous a semblé pertinent de nous intéresser aux relocalisations. Avant toute chose, il convient
de définir ce que nous entendons par relocalisation. Nous reprenons la définition de Belbenoit-Avich
(2010). Au sens étroit, ce concept concerne le retour partiel ou complet dans un laps de temps plus ou
moins important, d’éléments préalablement délocalisés dans un autre pays, quel qu’il soit. Dans une
dimension plus large, nous intégrons un redéveloppement en France d’une activité préalablement
délocalisée sans que cela entraîne une réduction des éléments délocalisés. Cette logique inclut aussi un
changement de sous-traitants, passant d’un sous-traitant dans un autre pays à un sous-traitant situé en
France. Les sous-traitants sont ici deux entités différentes et aucun déplacement spatial n’a été
nécessairement réalisé pour chacune de ces deux entités.
Le but de cette communication est de mettre en avant les recherches faites sur les relocalisations.
Toutefois, notre intérêt ici n’est pas de présenter une revue de la littérature (une seule à notre
connaissance est faite, à savoir Belbenoit-Avich, 2010) mais de mettre en évidence d’une part les
apports et les limites de ces recherches et d’autre part les difficultés auxquelles sont confrontées les
chercheurs. Suite à nos propres recherches, ces difficultés sont de deux types, à savoir liée à
l’établissement de la revue de la littérature et à l’accès au terrain. Cette difficulté d’accès au terrain est
36
renforcée par une faiblesse au niveau des données secondaires. Ce travail correspondra à la première
partie de notre communication. La deuxième partie portera sur les cadres théoriques. Nous
proposerons l’utilisation de deux cadres théoriques, à savoir la théorie des coûts de transaction et la
théorie des ressources. Le but final de notre article est ainsi double. D’une part, nous désirons mettre
en évidence la richesse potentielle que peuvent engendrer des recherches sur les relocalisations.
D’autre part, nous désirons mettre en garde tout chercheur intéressé par ce champ de recherche afin
qu’il ait connaissance des difficultés.
I : Présentation des recherches, limites et explication de ces limites
Nous allons dans un premier temps nous centrer sur les recherches menées sur les relocalisations. Nous
proposerons ensuite certaines limites et points non pris en compte par les recherches. Enfin, nous les
justifierons en mettant en évidence les difficultés rencontrées par les chercheurs. Ces difficultés sont
présentes aussi bien lors de l’établissement de la revue de littérature que lors de la recherche de
données, que ce soit via l’étude de cas ou l’utilisation de données secondaires.
I.1 : Recherches sur les relocalisations
Tout d’abord, nous allons présenter dans une dimension temporelle les relocalisations ainsi que les
recherches qui ont été faites. En ce qui concerne les relocalisations des entreprises, selon Mouhoud
(2006), les premières relocalisations concernant des entreprises américaines ont été réalisées fin des
années 1970. En ce qui concerne l’étude des relocalisations, selon la revue de littérature (BelbenoitAvich, 2010), la recherche a été extrêmement réactive. Cet auteur cite ainsi l’article de Jedlicki et
Lanzarotti écrit en 1981. De nos propres recherches, nous pouvons indiquer des recherches
commençant dès 1980, à savoir Truel (1980). Par ailleurs, concernant 1981, nous pouvons rajouter
Gèze (1981) et Arghiri (1981). Dans les deux cas, 1981 ou 1980, les recherches ont été faites peu après
les déplacements des entreprises.
Toujours en nous appuyant sur Belbenoit-Avich (2010), de ces 40 années de recherche, nous
observons que les auteurs ont eu pour principal objectif d’expliquer les causes du phénomène de
relocalisation. De nombreux déterminants ont ainsi été mis en évidence pour expliquer le retour
d’entreprises préalablement délocalisées. Ces déterminants sont chacun potentiellement riches dans
leur capacité explicative. En fonction de la période, plusieurs thèmes ont été mis en avant. C’est le cas
à titre d’exemple du développement de la robotisation dans les années 1980. Les articles portant sur le
rôle du capitalisme cognitif ont émergé à partir des années 1990, etc.
La revue de littérature réalisée par l’auteur cité a tenté de classer ces déterminants par catégories. Il a
ainsi été proposé les catégories suivantes, à savoir « connaissances humaines » (par cela, il est entendu
l’amélioration technique et le rôle de plus en plus prépondérant des connaissances), les « modifications
dans le pays d’origine », les « modifications du pays hôte », l’ « évolution du marché » et enfin les
« risques que les entreprises peuvent avoir en étant délocalisées.
Outre ces déterminants permettant d’expliquer le phénomène de relocalisation, deux autres types de
problématique ont été mis en avant, à savoir les conséquences des relocalisations sur l’emploi et
d’autre part le développement de la relocalisation dans le secteur agricole, au sens d’une production
agricole proche des consommateurs. Le présent auteur n’a pas pris en compte ces deux types de
recherche dans ses recherches et aucun développement ne sera fait ici. Nous notons aussi qu’une
mention de la structure du mot relocalisation, des définitions implicites données par les auteurs et de sa
traduction en anglais est faite par Belbenoit-Avich (2009).
Maintenant que nous avons identifié les recherches sur les relocalisations, nous allons tenter de mettre
en évidence certaines limites. Ces limites, comme nous le verrons dans la troisième partie, s’expliquent
en grande partie par les difficultés d’accès aux données.
37
I.2 : Limites des recherches sur les relocalisations
Comme nous l’avons indiqué, un grand nombre de déterminants ont été mis en évidence à partir de
1980. En ce qui concerne leur pertinence, plusieurs articles mentionnent la relocalisation simplement
en ouverture à la fin de leur article. Ces déterminants relèvent ainsi d’une proposition sans qu’ils ne
soient appuyés par une analyse empirique, ou même par des noms d’entreprises ayant relocalisé du fait
de ces déterminants. A titre d’exemple, nous proposons l’article de Boughzala et al. (2001). La
pertinence des déterminants est aussi remise en cause par les différentes définitions attribuées par les
auteurs à la notion de relocalisation. Ainsi, si la notion de retour dans le pays d’origine a été choisie
dans le cadre de cette communication, certains auteurs voient dans la relocalisation non le retour dans
le pays d’origine mais le rapprochement. Dès lors, il peut être douteux que des déterminants mis en
avant lors de travaux utilisés avec des définitions différentes puissent être utilisés ensemble. C’est le
cas ainsi des travaux de Goel et al. (2008). Si nous prenons le cas de la France, nous pouvons ainsi
légitimement nous demander si les déterminants poussant à se rapprocher de la France (en allant par
exemple de la Chine en Europe de l’Est ou dans des pays du Maghreb) sont les mêmes que ceux
poussant les entreprises à s’installer de nouveau dans l’hexagone. Toujours en ce qui concerne la
pertinence des déterminants, il se pose la question de la validité externe des déterminants. La question
repose ainsi sur les possibilités de généralisation des déterminants. A titre d’exemple, nous notons le
travail de Mercier-Suissa (2008) qui se base sur une présentation de déterminants relevés via des
données secondaires. Ce problème de généralisation repose aussi au niveau des spécificités culturelles.
A notre connaissance, les travaux sur les relocalisations n’ont porté que sur trois pays différents, la
France, l’Allemagne et le Japon. Toutefois, nos connaissances sont ici limitées par le fait que nos
recherches sont réduites aux articles et communication francophones. En ce qui concerne l’Allemagne,
deux éléments sont indiqués, à savoir d’une part l’évolution des transports ferroviaire (au niveau de la
régularité et de la prévisibilité) permettant la mise en place de flux tendus pour les entreprises
(Bourgeois, 2008) et d’autre part la presse qui critique le territoire allemand mais qui ne mentionne pas
les cas de relocalisation ainsi que les investissements directs provenant d’entreprises étrangères
(Reisach et al., 2010). Au niveau du Japon, Nakai (2006) met en évidence une relocalisation des
entreprises motivée par la reprise de la consommation et du choix par les entreprises d’investir dans
des stratégies alternatives aux délocalisations. Par ailleurs, Campagnolo (2006) met en évidence
l’évolution de la société du fait de la crise des années 2000. Cette évolution a entraîné, de par la
suppression des primes et la réduction des « salaires des employés à vie », des licenciements et des
restructurations, et ainsi des relocalisations du fait de la structure flexible du marché du travail et de la
baisse des salaires réels. Nous n’avons pas identifié d’études permettant la comparaison de stratégies
de relocalisation au niveau international.
La réflexion se pose aussi dans une dimension temporelle. Ainsi, si certains déterminants sont plus ou
moins forts lors d’une période de temps donnée, il n’est pas mentionné l’évolution de la pertinence de
ces déterminants. En d’autres termes, à notre connaissance, aucun article n’a mentionné que tel
déterminant mis auparavant en évidence pour déterminer les relocalisations n’aurait plus d’impact
actuellement. Dès lors, il est nécessaire de prendre en compte tous les déterminants comme éléments
possibles pour justifier les relocalisations. Néanmoins, les quelques limites que nous proposons sont
elles-mêmes atténuées par un travail, à savoir celui de Kinkel et al. (2010) qui s’appuient sur les
enquêtes menées par l’Institut Fraunhofer ISI. Outre le fait de mentionner les déterminants des
relocalisations les plus pris en compte par les entreprises allemandes dans l’industrie, ils indiquent
l’importance des relocalisations par rapport à la taille des entreprises ainsi que les secteurs les plus
touchés par les relocalisations. Plusieurs analyses sont faites par ces auteurs de manière à comparer
l’évolution dans le temps.
La deuxième limite que nous pourrions faire repose sur les axes d’orientation de la revue de littérature.
Les raisons explicatives des relocalisations des entreprises se limitent à une notion de coût. Or, nous
pensons que de nombreuses dimensions pourraient être mises en évidence dans le cas des recherches
ultérieures. Les entretiens réalisés auprès d’entreprises relocalisés nous permettent ainsi de proposer
38
différentes dimensions telles que le rôle du dirigeant. Une entreprise mentionne ainsi « Vous avez des
raisons plus prolixes, plus prosaïques, je ne sais pas si c’est très français. C’est simplement que la
personne qui a pris la décision de, de s’expatrier, délocaliser, elle veut pas reconnaître qu’elle a eu tort.
Ça peut être très souvent ». De même, nous pouvons mettre en évidence le rôle de certaines parties
prenantes comme les syndicats. Une entreprise souligne ainsi que la relocalisation peut être impossible
dans certains cas « A l’inverse, je pense que, des boîtes privées où le patron n’a que emmerdements
avec des syndicats ou des salariés, des grèves et trucs comme ça, heu, il aura une réaction encore plus à
pousser, heu, à sortir pour éviter les ennuis ». Au contraire l’absence de partie prenantes ou des
particularités peut avoir un impact. Une entreprise mentionne ainsi que « : Parce qu’une entreprise,
heu, avec des gens qui ont un conseil d’administration qui doivent fournir, qui doivent, heu, fournir des
dividendes, etc., ne peut pas prendre une décision de ce type [relocaliser et réduire les marges pour ne
pas augmenter les prix]. Nous, on a une entreprise de, qui, qui regroupe en fait des associés qui sont
tous indépendants, qui ont une volonté de services et qui ne sont pas là à vue capitalistique. C’est un
élément moteur aussi, c’est que, heu, la, la recherche du profit n’a pas été un élément qui nous a
contraint ».
Il en est de même en ce qui concerne les dimensions liées au marketing. Ainsi, une entreprise indique
que les consommateurs associent directement made in France et qualité.
Par ailleurs, l’impact des relocalisations sur les entreprises n’est pas pris en compte par les recherches.
Or cet impact semble réel dans le cas de certaines des entreprises interrogées. Ainsi, une entreprise
mentionne « Ensuite, une coopération très ouverte avec les partenaires sociaux et les syndicats sur le
projet. Une animation de l’ensemble des équipes sur des jeux, des enjeux très concrets. Il fallait gagner
10 points de productivité donc c’est on ne peut plus concret. On a mobilisé, heu, là, on a eu la
mobilisation de tous pour relever le challenge. Une forme, heu, évidemment, de, de, d’ambition et de
challenge dans le, dans le projet, hein, de, de faire, de faire aussi bien que les chinois. Il y a eu une
reconnaissance réciproque des défis qui ont été relevés à la fois, heu, heu, une reconnaissance de la
direction vis-à-vis des, des ouvriers qui se sont mobilisés mais aussi reconnaissance des ouvriers vis-àvis de la direction qui a fait ce choix de pérennité des emplois. Et donc finalement, ça a crée une
dynamique complètement nouvelle de productivité et de progrès dans l’entreprise ».
Nous avons identifié tout d’abord les éléments mis en avant par la revue de littérature sur les
relocalisations. Nous avons ensuite proposé quelques limites. Nous allons maintenant tenter
d’identifier pourquoi ces limites sont présentes.
I.3 : Explication de la présence de limites spécifiques à la recherche sur les relocalisations
A notre sens, ces limites sont liées à des difficultés aussi bien théoriques qu’empiriques. Nous verrons
dans un premier temps les difficultés théoriques puis dans un deuxième temps les difficultés
empiriques.
Au niveau des difficultés théoriques, Belbenoit-Avich (2009) mentionne le manque de clarté de la
notion (plusieurs sens sont possibles du fait de la structure grammaticale), l’inexistence en anglais d’un
mot précisant spécifiquement cette notion (le même mot « relocation » étant utilisé pour donner le sens
de délocalisation et de relocalisation). De plus, la grande majorité des auteurs ne définissent pas ce
qu’ils entendent par relocalisation, ce mot signifiant, en fonction des auteurs, une délocalisation, une
délocalisation en cascade, etc. Dès lors, chaque article ayant le mot clef relocalisation doit être étudié
pour en voir le sens.
En ce qui concerne les difficultés au niveau empirique, elles sont à notre sens au nombre de trois.
D’une part, elles sont liées à un accès extrêmement délicat au terrain, expliquant ainsi une recherche
limitée souvent à une dimension théorique. Cette difficulté d’accès peut être expliquée par plusieurs
raisons. La première en est la dimension stratégique, les entreprises ne souhaitant ainsi pas diffuser
ainsi les raisons de leur stratégie de localisation. Pour citer notre propre exemple, l’auteur a été de
manière implicite accusé de tentative d’espionnage (ou du moins, nous l’avons considéré comme
39
telle). Suite à une tentative de contact auprès d’une entreprise relocalisée , un coup de téléphone
agressif a été reçu pour savoir précisément où l’auteur avait obtenu l’information concernant leur
relocalisation. La deuxième raison expliquant les difficultés d’accès au terrain est la volonté de ne pas
partager l’avantage concurrentiel obtenu par l’entreprise en relocalisation. Ainsi, une entreprise a
indiqué être très satisfaite de la relocalisation qu’elle considérait comme un avantage concurrentiel par
rapport à ses concurrents. Néanmoins, elle a expliqué son refus d’entretien par le fait qu’elle ne désirait
pas que ses concurrents relocalisent eux-aussi. De même, elle a fait part de son regret d’avoir donné
autant d’informations à la presse. La troisième raison expliquant le peu de recherches réalisées sur des
entreprises relocalisées a été obtenue via un entretien avec un syndicat patronal. Celui-ci nous a
indiqué que l’absence de réponse favorable d’entreprises relocalisées pouvait provenir d’un sentiment
de honte. La relocalisation est ainsi vue comme une erreur de stratégie et dès lors les entreprises ne
souhaitent pas en parler.
1
D’autre part, la deuxième difficulté au niveau empirique repose sur la difficulté d’obtenir des noms
d’entreprises relocalisées.
En ce qui concerne les noms d’entreprises relocalisées, il n’existe à notre connaissance aucune base de
données les référant. Cette constatation est appuyée par Fernandes et al. (2010) qui indiquent ne
connaître ni indicateur, ni fichier national permettant d’identifier les entreprises ayant procédé à des
relocalisations. Une recherche actuellement en cours avec le mot clef « relocalisation » utilisée sur la
base de données « Factiva »2 ayant pour but à terme d’identifier les données secondaires depuis 2005
fait penser à un nombre d’entreprises relocalisées identifiées par la presse comme étant très faible.
Cette faiblesse du nombre d’entreprises relevé par la presse est mise en évidence dans le cas de
l’Allemagne par Reisach et al.(2010). Selon ces auteurs, (p.25), les entreprises allemandes critiquent le
fait qu’il y ait trop d’impôts et menacent de se délocaliser. Or la presse ne relève pas le cadre favorable
en l’Allemagne, poussant ainsi des entreprises du monde entier à investir malgré les coûts élevés. De
même, la presse ne mentionne « guère non plus toutes ces entreprises qui, parties se délocaliser en
Europe de l’Est ou en Asie sous l’œil admiratif des caméras, rentrent penaudes au pays après quelques
années ».
Dès lors, une entreprise relocalisée nous a ainsi indiqué qu’à sa connaissance, « il y a une vingtaine de
boîtes au total [ayant relocalisé]. Oui, oui, un certain nombre mais vous les trouvez toutes sur internet.
Vous tapez relocalisation, vous vous tapez les 15 ou 20 pages de, de google et vous trouverez ».
Enfin, la troisième difficulté repose sur la faiblesse des éléments dans les données secondaires. Nos
propres recherches sur les données secondaires qui montrent des éléments rapidement redondants, une
entreprise relocalisée a aussi relevé cet état de fait. « Alors, le plus que vous trouverez, c’est Magencia
ou Samas (…),Geneviève Lethu, Sullair, heu, Armor Lux à une époque, heu, une boîte qui doit
s’appeler SDS. Mais vous trouvez tout ça sur Google. »
Nous avons dans la première partie de cette communication tentée de présenter non la revue de
littérature sur les relocalisations en elle-même mais ses apports, ses limites, ainsi que les raisons
pouvant à notre sens expliquer la présence de ces différentes limites. Ce travail une fois effectué, dans
la seconde partie de cette communication, nous allons nous pencher sur le cas des cadres théoriques
proposés par les auteurs pour étudier ce phénomène. Nous proposerons à la suite les deux cadres
théoriques nous semblant particulièrement intéressants d’utiliser.
II : Cadres théoriques
1
Les entreprises indiquées ne peuvent être nommées par l’auteur, du fait de la situation, l’auteur n’a pas pu demander leur
autorisation pour indiquer leur nom ainsi que le titre de la personne ayant eu ses propos. Nous nous limiterons donc à
l’anonymat.
2
Considéré par l’organisme comme étant « premier news collection » (http://www.dowjones.com/factiva/factivacom.asp)
40
II.1 : Présentation des cadres théoriques utilisés par les auteurs
La revue de littérature portant sur les déterminants des relocalisations présente des déterminants très
différents. Certains sont dans une optique macro, voyant la capacité des nouveaux pays industrialisés à
se prémunir contre ce type de stratégie (confer Frouville, Perrault, 1986). D’autres se basent au niveau
des relations inter-entreprises, proposant ainsi une relocalisation possible grâce à un fonctionnement en
réseau plus efficace (nous citerons ainsi Abécassis et al. (1998)). D’autres auteurs mentionnent le cas
du développement durable (exemple Akono, 2009), etc. Ces exemples mettent en évidence une très
grande hétérogénéité de déterminants.
Si nous nous penchons sur les cadres théoriques proposés, Bouba-Olga et al.(2008) dans un article
centré sur les centres d’appel s’attachent à expliquer leur trajectoire organisationnelle. Pour
« comprendre l’émergence et les formes concrètes prises par les entreprises du secteur des centres
d’appels » (p.71), ils proposent la prise en compte de plusieurs cadres théoriques. D’une part, ils
mettent en avant le paradigme OLI (de Dunning (1993)). D’autre part, ils soulignent les approches en
termes de coûts de transaction (Williamson, 1994). Ainsi, « si l’entreprise externalise une activité,
alors que le nombre de prestataires est réduit, elle peut devenir fortement dépendante du prestataire
choisi et donc encourir un risque d’opportunisme, risque d’autant plus fort que les actifs impliqués
dans la transaction sont spécifiques » (p.73). De manière plus générale, reprenant Coase (1937), ils
indiquent que l’externalisation (synonyme de « passage par le marché ») fait supporter aux donneurs
d’ordres les coûts de transaction (coûts de collecte de l’information, coûts de négociation des contrats,
coûts de surveillance des contrats) et ces coûts doivent être comparés aux coûts d’organisation interne.
De plus, ils reprennent aussi l’approche en termes de compétences (développée selon ces auteurs
initialement par Penrose (1959) et Richardson (1972)) pour indiquer que l’externalisation peut être
problématique si l’activité externalisée est au cœur de l’avantage stratégique des entreprises. Ainsi,
« l’entreprise cliente se vide de sa substance et risque de devenir une firme creuse ». Des problèmes de
coordination productive sont aussi mentionnés, entraînant ainsi par exemple une réduction de
l’efficacité des processus collectifs d’apprentissage. D’autres éléments sont aussi mentionnés, à savoir
le coût du travail, la qualité et la disponibilité de la main d’œuvre (concurrence potentielle entre les
activités). Enfin, les coûts de coordinations, considérés comme croissant avec la distance, sont
mentionnés par ces auteurs comme parfois pouvant plus que compenser les avantages des coûts de
production.
En ce qui nous concerne, nous pensons que deux cadres théoriques sont particulièrement intéressants
dans le cadre de la relocalisation et particulièrement du pourquoi les entreprises relocalisent, à savoir la
théorie des coûts de transaction et la théorie des ressources. Notre but est ici de proposer ces cadres
théoriques, tenter de mettre en avant les éléments pertinents (cette présentation n’a aucune vocation
d’être exhaustive) puis de montrer son application par rapport à la revue de la littérature. Toutefois,
avant cela, nous devons nous intéresser à la possibilité d’utiliser ces deux cadres de manière
complémentaire.
Pour Ghertman (2003), ces deux cadres ont une utilité complémentaire, bien que certains éléments, au
niveau de l’analyse, des objectifs et des concepts diffèrent tout en se recoupant parfois. Selon Peteraf
(1993, p.188), « The resource-based model is fundamentally concerned with the international
accumulation of assets specificity, and, less directly, with transaction costs”. Cela étant dit, si des
similarités existent entre la théorie des ressources et des coûts de transaction au niveau d’éléments
majeurs, certains rejets sont aussi présents (Conner, 1991).
II.2 : Théorie des ressources
Nous allons dans un premier temps nous pencher sur la théorie des ressources.
Arrègle (1996, p.242) définit la théorie des ressources comme s’intéressant « à la création d’un
avantage concurrentiel défendable dans le cadre d’une démarche proactive ». Cette démarche
« considère les routines organisationnelles qui permettent de faire fonctionner de manière
41
concurrentielle ces unités de production ou, encore, la protection des compétences rares de l’entreprise
lui permettant de développer ses avantages concurrentiels ». Elle s’appuie sur des notions de rentes et
met en avant les ressources rares dont dispose une organisation pour sa réflexion stratégique et son
développement. Durand (2000, p.265), « l’entreprise mobilise des actifs et des ressources auxquels
elle a accès et les combine au service de son offre et de ses clients, en faisant appel à des
connaissances et des processus organisationnels qui lui sont propres. Certaines des compétences ainsi
déployées sont suffisamment spécifiques pour être considérées comme clés, c’est-à-dire qu’elles allient
des ressources et des savoir-faire sous une forme et d’une façon telle qu’elles constituent un avantage
concurrentiel significatif et durable face aux concurrents ». En ce qui concerne la définition de
ressource, Arrègle (1996) met en évidence la séparation entre inputs et ressources. Il définit les
ressources comme étant « un actif stratégique à l’entreprise. Les inputs sont définis (p.244) comme
« des facteurs génériques de production que l’entreprise achète et pour lesquels il existe un marché où
ils s’échangent ». Ils ne sont donc pas spécifiques à une entreprise ». Les exemples donnés sont une
matière première et une main d’œuvre « générique ». Les ressources sont vues comme des éléments
spécifiques à l’entreprise (p.244) « il n’existe pas de marchés sur lesquels ces ressources s’échangent.
Elles peuvent être tangibles ou intangibles et sont créées à partir d’inputs qui sont transformés par
l’entreprise en actifs spécifiques ». Pour Wernerfelt (1984, p.172), vue par Brulhart et al. (2010)
comme ayant fait les premières propositions sur la théorie des ressources, une ressource est définie
comme « anything which could be thought of a strength or weakness of a given firm. More formally, a
firm’s resources at a given time could be defined at those (tangible and intangible) assets which are
tied semipermanently to to the firm ». Pour Daft (1983), les ressources des entreprises sont tous les
actifs, les capacités, les processus organisationnels, les attributs des entreprises, l’information, la
connaissance, etc. contrôlés par l’entreprise et qui lui permettent de concevoir et de mettre en œuvre
des stratégies permettant d’améliorer son efficacité.
L’apport à notre sens de la théorie des ressources est de supposer que la relocalisation va permettre aux
entreprises de se démarquer de ses concurrents. Dès lors, via l’utilisation de ce cadre théorique, nous
prenons en compte une relocalisation non liée à une dimension négative (une erreur de stratégie en
délocalisant) mais plutôt permettant à l’entreprise de gagner en compétitivité.
Si nous nous centrons sur les exemples de ressources, Wernerfelt (1984) indique les marques, les
connaissances internes de la technologie, l’emploi de personnels qualifiés, les contacts commerciaux,
les machines, les procédures efficaces, le capital financier. Arrègle (1996) met en évidence comme
grandes catégories de ressources les ressources financières, physique, humaines, technologiques,
organisationnelles et la réputation. Barney (1991) mentionne une classification en trois catégories, à
savoir les ressources en capital physique (Williamson, 1975), les ressources en capital humain
(Beceker, 1964), et les ressources en capital organisationnel (Tomer, 1987). Les ressources en capital
physique comprennent la technologie physique, l’usine et les équipements, la localisation
géographique et l’accès aux matériaux bruts. Les ressources en capital humain incluent la formation,
l’expérience, le bon sens, l’intelligence, les relations et la compétence de chaque manager et ouvrier
dans l’entreprise. Les ressources en capital organisationnel correspondent à la structure de rapport
formel, la planification formelle et informelle, les systèmes de coordination et de contrôle et enfin les
relations informelles entre les groupes à l’intérieur d’une entreprise ainsi qu’avec ceux dans son
environnement. Néanmoins, une atténuation doit être faite, toutes ces ressources mentionnées ne sont
pas nécessairement des ressources stratégiquement pertinentes. Selon Barney (1986) certains attributs
de ces firmes peuvent empêcher une entreprise de concevoir ou de mettre en place des stratégies de
valeur. D’autres peuvent entraîner une entreprise à concevoir et mettre en place des stratégies réduisant
son efficacité. D’autres enfin n’ont pas d’impact sur les processus stratégiques.
De plus, le simple fait d’avoir des ressources n’est pas suffisant pour que l’entreprise ait un avantage
compétitif. Peteraf (1993) qui propose un consensus sur les différents travaux sur la théorie des
ressources, indique que quatre conditions doivent être présentes pour que les entreprises aient un
avantage compétitif, à savoir l’hétérogénéité, les limites ex post à la concurrence (deux facteurs
42
critiques limitent cette compétition, l’imitation imparfaite et la substitution imparfaite, une mobilité
imparfaite des ressources et une limitation ex ante à la concurrence.
L’hétérogénéité et la mobilité imparfaite peuvent être considérées comme un acquis. En effet, selon
Barney et Hoskisson (1989), il est raisonnable de supposer que la plupart des industries sont
caractérisées par au moins des degrés d’hétérogénéité et d’immobilité des ressources, la revue de
littérature ne permet pas de pouvoir discuter des conditions des limites ex post et ex ante de la
concurrence.
Si nous appliquons ce que nous venons de voir par rapport à la revue de littérature centrée sur les
déterminants des relocalisations, nous voyons une mise en évidence des ressources sans que celles-ci
puissent forcément être considérées comme durables. Parmi elles, à titre d’exemple, nous pouvons
citer l’augmentation de l’automatisation entraînant ainsi une augmentation de la productivité et une
baisse de l’importance du coût de la main d’œuvre (cette notion a été mentionnée par de nombreux
auteurs, nous citerons les plus récents : Mercier-Suissa (2008), Bouba-Olga et al. (2008) ainsi que
Bezbakh et al. (2008)), l’importance de la connaissance avec le rôle du capitalisme cognitif, définie par
Vercellone (2002, p.14) comme « l’essor d’une économie fondée sur la diffusion du savoir et dans
laquelle la production de connaissance devient le principal enjeu de la valorisation du capital » (voir
Mouhoud, 2002 ; Michalet, 1987). La localisation géographique à titre d’exemple permet aux
entreprises d’être plus réactives, de réduire les temps de transports (Mercier-Suissa, 2008), de tenir
compte du développement durable et de réduire les coûts de transport (Akono et al., 2009), etc.
Ainsi, à titre d’exemple, une entreprise interrogée indique que « en fait, heu, ce qui est intéressant,
c’est que cette innovation, on a pu la construire qu’en France. C’est pas la qualité là, c’est l’esprit
créatif. C’est l’esprit, c’est, c’est, c’est ce qui a dans l’esprit de nos ingénieurs français ». « Ça nous a
permis peut-être de superformer sur le marché, dans la mesure où cette collection [qui a relocalisé],
heu, qui est arrivée à point nommé, avec, avec la crise, heu, nous a permis en fait de, de nous
différencier sur un marché qui, en temps de crise était un marché intéressant ».
II.3 Théorie des coûts de transaction
Le deuxième cadre théorique que nous proposons est celui de la théorie des coûts de transaction. Pour
cela, nous nous appuierons en partie sur l’article de Ghertman (2003) consacré à Williamson ainsi que
l’article de Williamson (1999). Contrairement à la théorie des ressources où le niveau d’analyse est
l’entreprise (Ghertman, 2003), le niveau d’analyse en ce qui concerne cette théorie est la transaction
(Ghertman, 2003 ; Williamson, 1999).
Ghertman (2003) indique que parce que ces transactions sont réalisées par des êtres humains, elles
comportent des axiomes comportementaux, à savoir la rationalité limitée et l’opportunisme. Développé
par Simon (1947), ce concept de rationalité limitée est l’incapacité à être informé totalement et à
comprendre et prévoir les réactions des employés, des fournisseurs, des clients et des concurrents. Ces
derniers ne savent pas eux-mêmes forcément à l’avance ce qu’ils vont faire. Dès lors, les contrats sont
toujours incomplets. L’opportunisme, développé par Alchian et Demsetz (1972) et repris par
Williamson (1975) repose sur la volonté des individus d’agir dans leur propre intérêt, et cela en
trompant éventuellement de manière volontaire. Cet opportunisme peut être ex-ante ou ex-post, exante si des informations ou des intentions sont cachées, ex-poste si des éléments non écrits dans le
contrat ou une situation interne à l’entreprise sont utilisés pour tirer avantage des événements
imprévus. Williamson (1999, p.1089) indique ainsi que « human actors will not reliably disclose true
conditions upon request or self-fulfill all promise ».
En ce qui concerne les attributs de transaction, Ghertman (2003) souligne que trois attributs sont
présents, à savoir la spécificité des actifs, l’incertitude, la fréquence. La spécificité repose sur le
redéploiement d’un actif dans une autre transaction. Plus un actif est spécifique, plus le coût sera élevé.
Cette spécificité est de différents types, spécificité de site, physique, sur mesure, de marque et
43
humaine. Selon Ghertman (1994), Plus les actifs sont spécifiques, plus les partenaires seront prêts à
faire des investissements importants, permettant ainsi des technologies d’avant garde et des économies
d’échelles. Williamson, (1999, p.1089) indique que « a good deal of the explanotary power of
transaction cost economics turns on this last ». L’incertitude selon Ghertman (1994) se divise en deux
types d’incertitudes. La première, interne, comprend la complexité et le caractère tacite des tâches que
l’entreprise réalise en interne ou que deux entreprises différentes effectuent lors d’une transaction de
transfert de technologie. L’incertitude externe est composée de l’incertitude technologique, légale,
réglementaire et fiscale et enfin concurrentielle. Enfin, en ce qui concerne les fréquences, elles peuvent
être fréquentes, peu fréquentes, voire uniques. Plus les biens échangés sont standards, à savoir un
faible niveau de spécificité et d’incertitude interne, plus les transactions sont fréquentes et plus le
marché sera le mode de gouvernance. A l’inverse, plus la spécificité des actifs ainsi que l’incertitude
interne seront élevées, plus la fréquence des transactions sera faible et plus on aura affaire à un contrat
ou à une opération interne au sein d’une hiérarchie (à savoir, selon Williamson 1975, 1985, 1995)
l’entreprise. Selon Williamson, (1999, p.1090), la théorie des coûts de transaction se centre sur le
niveau organisationnel, permettant d’identifier la structure de gouvernance la plus intéressante, « firm
and market are alternative modes of governance that differ in discrete structural way ». Les trois
principaux attributs décrivant le mode de gouvernance sont (selon Williamson, 1991) l’encouragement
à l’intensité, les contrôles administratifs et les règles de régime juridique.
Sous ce cadre, nous pouvons mettre en évidence plusieurs éléments comme les risques liés à
l’insuffisance de l’encadrement concernant la gestion de la production des ateliers (Mercier-Suissa,
2008 ; Bezbakh et al., 2008), les problèmes de qualité (Bouba-Olga et al, 2008 ; Mercier-Suissa, 2008)
ainsi que tout ce qui est relatif aux coûts cachés (Goel et al., 2008), etc.
Une entreprise explique ainsi la volonté de quitter son sous-traitant pour produire elle-même « C’est
une volonté de reprendre le contrôle sur, sur ce qui fait l’essence de notre métier, c'est-à-dire le
développement des produits quoi ». Au niveau du contrôle, une entreprise mentionne que « (le soustraitant) il est obligé d’accepter (un contrôle dans son entreprise) puisque le client est donneur
d’ordres. Mais en pratique, ils aiment pas trop sauf si on est à 100%, si on travaille 100% avec eux ».
Conclusion
Ce travail s’est donné deux ambitions. D’une part, il a permis de souligner la revue de littérature sur le
phénomène des relocalisations, indiquant les avancées théoriques, soulignant certaines limites, et
justifiant leurs existences du fait des grandes difficultés auxquelles sont confrontés les chercheurs lors
d’un approfondissement sur le terrain. D’autre part, deux cadres théoriques ont été mis en avant pour
tenter d’expliquer particulièrement le phénomène des relocalisations. Nous espérons ainsi que cette
communication permettra à tout chercheur intéressé d’appréhender rapidement les difficultés et de
s’orienter vers les nombreux thèmes non encore traités par la littérature existante.
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LEAN PRODUCTION: THE LINK BETWEEN
SUPPLY CHAIN AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
IN AN INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
Denise RAVET
IAE de Lyon, Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3
Abstract
Purpose - While there could be separate streams of established research on lean production, global
supply chain and sustainable development, the idea is to address the intersection of these strategic
initiatives. Firms may find synergies and competitive advantage through these strategies. The aim of
the mission is to explore the link between sustainable development, global supply chain and the lean
paradigm in the international changing competitive environment. Lean has long been linked to
improve operational performance and environmental performance. The concern is to analyze how
companies could manage the lean and sustainable principles through the global supply chain in order
to take advantage of synergy and to strengthen their operational expertise in an international
environment.
Design/methodology/approach - A literature review is conducted to examine research and practice
with respect to the implementation of lean production and sustainable, global supply chain strategies.
A recent review of the literature in each of the three interfaces of lean, sustainable and global supply
chain strategies was conducted using different international databases.
Findings - An examination of the literature reveals drivers and barriers, converging and contradictory
elements for the implementation of lean production and sustainable, global supply chain strategies in
an international environment. The research tries to highlight the key elements that could inform
managerial decision making.
Keywords: Sustainable development/global Supply chain management/Lean production
INTRODUCTION
In the intensive competitive environment of the global economy, the survival of many companies
depends on the ability to continuously improve quality while reducing costs. Meanwhile,
sustainability is becoming a key issue for manufacturing strategy and in recent past, emergence of
customer driven markets has resulted in rapid changes in strategies adopted by the organizations.
Manufacturing systems have to respond to continuous changes and sustainability requirements. So,
changing production methods from mass-production with high inventory to a leaner operation with
low inventory has become an essential practice. Significant interest has been shown in recent years in
the idea of “lean manufacturing” (Womack et al.1990) and the wider concepts of the “lean enterprise”
(Womack and Jones, 1996). Many organizations have adopted the lean thinking paradigm in order to
optimize performance and competitive advantage. These paradigms lean and sustainable should not be
considered alone or in isolation within the supply chain. The sustainability paradigm has opened the
gate for revisiting various established strategies of supply chain management to reassess their viability
with new angle of sustainability in general and greening specially (Stonebraker et al.2009).Tradeoffs
between theses management paradigms may help organizations and their supply chain to become more
competitive and sustainable (Machado, Duarte, 2010). Therefore more attention has been paid to lean
and sustainable organizations and supply chains as there is recognition of the need to match the supply
chain to the market.
48
So, a key business feature is that supply chains compete, not companies (Christopher, 1992). These
supply chains must be able to satisfy the demands of customers.
Consequently, in this context, how can lean production meet global supply chain and sustainable
development? The goal of this paper is to present the relationship between lean and sustainable
paradigms linked to the supply chain in an international environment in order to identify the possible
synergies.
First, we will present the sustainable development paradigm and the link with supply chain, in a
second part we will explore the lean paradigm, and then in a third part, in which these two paradigms
may be combined to enable highly competitive supply chains capable of winning in an international,
volatile and cost-conscious environment.
I- THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PARADIGM AND THE LINK WITH SUPPLY
CHAIN
With growing legislation, dwindling resources and increasingly vocal consumers, sustainability will
only continue to grow in importance as an opportunity for forward thinking firms and a threat to their
competitors that fail to act. Therefore, interest in sustainable supply chains has been growing for over a
decade and the topic is becoming mainstream (Corbett and Kleindorfer 2003; Corbet and Klassen
2006). The organizations need to deal with environmental and social issues (e.g., Kleindorfer, Singha
and Van Wassenhove 2005; Corbett and Klassen 2006).
I-1-THE CONCEPT OF SUSTAINABILITY AND SUPPLY CHAIN
Sustainable development: Sustainability encompasses complex, diverse issues. “Sustainability can
mean different things: some see it in terms of long-term viability, generally with an environmental
perspective, some see a dynamic nature in sustainability, some see it simply as lasting change, which is
the way in which we will use it here” (Bicheno and Holweg, 2009, p.218).The Brundtland commission
(World Commission on Environment and Development 1987, p.8) defined the term of sustainability
as: “the development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs”. The concept of sustainable development is made up of three
areas: economic, social and environmental sustainability. For an organization, it translates as a focus
on a respect for: profit-economic; people-social; and environment-environmental. The study is
especially on corporate sustainability which has been defined as a business approach that creates longterm shareholder value by embracing the opportunities and managing the risks associated with
economic, environmental and social developments. Corporate sustainability has been focused with
attention drawn toward the triple bottom line of “people, profit and planet” (Elkington, 1994, 1998) or
“Equity, Environment and Economics” (Anderson 2006; Kleindorfer et al.2005). Sustainability
emerges as a way of considering the environmental and social values of business decisions alongside
their economic value.
Supply chain. In the early 1980s firms realized that their competitiveness was not just determined by
what they do, but also by what their upstream suppliers and downstream suppliers were doing. Supply
chain capabilities are a significant determinant of competitiveness and it can be argued that value
chains compete, not individual companies
(Christopher, 2000).The key point in supply chain management is to consider the entire system of
suppliers, manufacturing plants, and distribution tiers. The supply chain management can be defined
as a set of interdependent organizations that act together to control, manage and improve the flow of
materials, products, services and information, from the origin point to the delivery point (the end
customer) in order to satisfy the customer needs, at the lowest possible cost to all members (Lambert,
Stock, Ellram, 1998). According to Christopher (2000), the goal is to manage upstream and
downstream relationships with suppliers and customers in order to create enhanced value in the final
market place at less cost to the supply chain as a whole. More recently, an another definition specifies
that supply chain is a group of partners who collectively convert a basic commodity (upstream) into a
finished product (downstream) that is valued by end-customers, and who manage returns at each stage
49
(Harrison, Van Hoek, 2005). It highlights the reverse logistic and its importance in the supply chain.
The success or failure of the supply chains is ultimately determined in the marketplace by the end
consumer. Customer satisfaction and marketplace understanding are crucial elements for consideration
when attempting to establish a new supply chain strategy. When the requirements and constraints of
the marketplace are understood can an enterprise attempt to develop a strategy that will meet the needs
of both the supply chain and the end customer?
I-2 MANAGING GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS
In order to meet the current challenges of the global economic crisis, supply chains have to change
especially with systematic controlling of net working capital. Globalization has a central role to play in
supply chain management: supply chains are increasingly global and complex, as companies aspire to
support a variety of strategies, such as entering new markets, increasing service to customers and
reducing costs. According to surveys3, the most important drivers of globalization are factors that are
directly connected to purchasing and procurement, followed by drivers on the market side. “In times of
economic crisis, active management of net working capital, in other words of inventories, receivables
and payables is one of the core tasks of supply chain management. Companies should now make use of
every opportunity to release capital in the short term in order to improve cash position. Controlling net
working capital is often a neglected instrument for doing this. What it is important for the people in
charge of supply chain management is that they reduce their inventories, perhaps by systematically
restructuring the supply chain to become a pull supply chain”. The effects of globalization are apparent
in the interdependencies of suppliers and customers. The global trends influence the supply chain
management goals: reducing costs, improving customer service, getting new products and services to
market faster and sustainable actions. On the one hand, supply chain cost and tied-up working capital,
including inventories, must be kept as low as possible. On the other hand, though, customer
requirements in terms of delivery lead times, product availability and delivery reliability are
increasing. Reducing costs is even more important for companies in developing markets; perhaps
companies in countries such as China are trying to anticipate the effect of rising costs (including labor
costs and appreciating currencies) on the competitive advantage they currently enjoy as low-cost
manufacturers. In this context, supply chain strategies are increasing the efficiency of supply chain
processes, actively managing risks along the supply chain, and sourcing more inputs from low-cost
countries. Many companies manage both sourcing and logistics outside the home country for cost
reduction. When possible, companies seek to maximize economies of scale in the supply chain, and
many companies treat it as a shared utility of the broader organization – not only to take advantage of
synergies, but also to strengthen their operational expertise. The top-rated challenge is the ability to
share knowledge effectively across different manufacturing and sourcing locations. Against a back
drop of sharply rising supply chain risk, including the prospect of higher energy prices, companies are
likely to pay attention at their manufacturing and supply footprints.
I-3 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND SUPPLY CHAIN
In the wake of concerns regarding climate change, pollution and non-renewable resource constraints,
firms are heeding stakeholder demands regarding corporate citizenship behavior and performance
(Sarkis, 2001). The various stakeholders – customers, shareholders, boards, employees, governments,
and NGOs – and most corporations respond in a reactive, piecemeal way that could influence the
supply chain. So, efforts to make supply chains more environmentally friendly has gained top priority
due to increasing threats arising out phenomena like global warming and climate change (Shukla et
al.2009b). Several other factors lead firms to pursue sustainable supply chain practices: pressure from
stakeholders (Zhu et al., 2008), environmental standards (Rondinelli and Berry, 2000), effects of
environmental performance, on firms’ reputations (Christmann, 2000), cost reduction (de Brito et al,
2008) and competitors (Walker et al., 2008). Moreover, environmental regulations, have forced
manufacturers to re-examine the entire lifecycle and environmental impacts on their products. Such
3
ATKEARNEY 2009
50
compliance efforts have already resulted in cleaner, sager operations, reduced use and acceptable
substitutions for hazardous substances, increased product recyclability and recovery, and improved
transparency of information available to suppliers, trading, partners, employees, and customers that
impact all the supply chain. Consequently, many manufacturing companies are adopting sustainability
initiatives in response to internal drivers such as cost reduction, commodity risk management, and
upholding corporate culture and external drivers (consumers want the right product at the right cost to
the right place at the right time and to be green). Several examples can underline these different
actions: Unilever4 has decided to carry 30% of its freight by other means than road transportation
thanks to collaboration with its logistic subsidiary and information sharing through the Carbon
Disclosure Project Supply Chain Leadership Collaboration5. By coordinating across every stage of
fabric and shirt production, the Chinese manufacturer Esquel cut energy consumption by 26.4 % and
water consumption by 33.7 % in the past five years (Lee, 2010). Lafuma has been implementing
sustainable development actions since the 1990’s. An in-house organization was set up with
sustainable good practices at every level, including product design, manufacturing/sourcing,
transport/logistics, human resources, sales and communication. The commitment to sustainable
development for Lafuma6 is ambitious specifically by the completion of an eco-designed line of
products for each product range. Hewlett-Packard is one of the world’s leading companies that belong
to the United Nations global compact7in order to align its operations to accepted principles. Thus, a
sustainable supply chain focus requires working with suppliers and customers, analysis of internal
operations and processes, environmental considerations in the product development process, and
extended stewardship across products’ life cycles (Corbett and Klassen, 2006; Mollenkopf, 2006). But,
sustainability issues are adding complexity and risks to the already challenge of managing supply
chains such as inventory, cycle time, quality, the costs of materials, production and logistics (Lee,
2010).Three distinct phases of supply chain are identified in the literature (Shukla, 2004):
- Inbound supply chain ensure value addition to raw materials in terms of selection, segregation,
packing, transportation, cold storing, warehousing etc…There are host of intermediate echelons like
consolidators, traders, commission agents, wholesalers, retailers, third party logistics, which results in
very high complexity. It implies green-design, green sourcing… Greening the supply chain generates
environmental benefits as well as financial results by reducing risk by managing a product’s
environmental compliance in its design rather than making any necessary costly corrections later in its
lifecycle.
- Manufacturing supply chain or internal supply chain: value addition is done during manufacturing or
production of goods. Functions like material flow, material handling and inventory management are
predominant and implies green manufacturing.
- Outbound supply chain : the distribution channel operations like warehouse location, mode of
transportation and inventory management at retail and wholesaler level…it implies green logistic and
green reverse logistic.
Although sustainability measures often seem worthwhile individually, they may in the grand scheme
generate unintended consequences, such as higher financial, social, or environment costs (Lee, 2010).
Consequently, these sustainability measures must be coordinated across every stage of the supply
chain with adjacent operations. Equally this is the reason why a sustainable supply chain is one that
performs well on both traditional measures of profit and loss as well as the triple bottom line
(Elkington 1999, Kleindorfer et al.2005). The triple bottom line is a tool to measure an organization’s
progress toward the end goal of being truly sustainable.
Moreover, the development of sustainable has tended to focus on studies of a single function or
activity as opposed to looking at the entire chain (Rao and Holt, 2005). But, companies – throughout
the supply chain, not just at the end – should take a holistic approach to sustainability and pursue
4
5
Logistique magazine Juin 2010
CDP is an independent not-for-profit organization holding the largest database of primary corporate climate change information in the world.
Lafuma annual report 2010
United Nations Global Compact is a strategic policy initiative for businesses that are committed to aligning their operations and strategies with ten universally accepted
principles in the areas of human rights, labour, environment and anti-corruption.
6
7
51
broader structural changes than they typically do. It is mainly important in an international supply
chain.
Therefore, the sustainability paradigm may have influence on the supply chain and many supply chain
decisions may have impacts on the environment, the social aspects, the communities and the wider
supply chain.
II -THE LEAN PRODUCTION PARADIGM
II-1 LEAN ORIGINS
The origins of lean manufacturing initiatives can be traced to the Toyota Production System (TPS) and
were initiated by Ohno (1978) and Shingo (1989) at Toyota with its focus on the systematic efficient
use of resource through level scheduling. They used the Japanese word “muda”, which were defined as
any human activity that absorbs resources but creates no value (Dettmer, 2008). Taiichi Ohno has
identified the first seven type of “muda” (means waste) and the main goal is on the systematic
identification, reduction and elimination of all waste from the manufacturing processes in order to
create value for the customer. In the lean context, waste was viewed as any activity that does not lead
directly to creating the product or service a customer wants. Then, the lean production was coined by
Womack et al. (1990) in their book entitled “The machine that have changed the world” in order to
show a better way to organize and manage customer relations, the supply chain, product development,
and production operations, an approach pioneered by the Toyota Company after World War II. This is
a vision of a world transformed from mass production to Lean Production which has dominated much
of the theory and practice of production systems design. In this context, the idea of “lean thinking” has
been expounded by Womack and Jones (1996) and have emphasised Lean Enterprise rather than Lean
Production (Womack et al., 2003). Today it is arguably the paradigm for operations that can be found
in a wide range of manufacturing and service strategies.
II-2 LEAN DEFINITION
Formulating a definition that captures all the dimensions of lean is a formidable challenge (Pettersen,
2009). The terms “lean production” or “minimum workshop” as Ohno (1978) states, provide a way to
do more and more with less and less – less stock, less human effort, less equipment, less movement of
material, less time and less space while coming closer and closer to providing customers with exactly
what they want. It is the single most powerful tool available for creating value while eliminating waste
in any organization (Womack and Jones, 1996). Leanness means developing a value stream to
eliminate all waste including time, and to enable a level schedule (Naylor et al., 1999). The systematic
attack on waste is also a systematic assault on the elements underlying poor quality and fundamental
management problems (Childerhouse and Towill, 2002). According to Seth and Gupta (2005), the goal
of lean manufacturing is to reduce waste in human effort, inventory, time to market and manufacturing
space to become highly responsive to customer demand while producing quality products in the most
efficient and economical manner. Lean manufacturing results could include reduced inventory level
(raw material, work in progress, finished product) ; decreased material usage (product inputs, including
energy, water, metals, etc…) ; optimized equipment (capital equipment for direct production and
support purposes) ; reduced need for factory facilities; increased production velocity; enhanced
production flexibility; and reduced complexity (Shashin, Janatyan, 2010). MIT’s Lean Advancement
Initiative defines lean as follows: production design that is aimed at the elimination of waste in every
area, including customer relations, product design, supplier networks and factory management. Its goal
is to incorporate less human effort, less inventory, less time to develop products and less space to
become highly responsive to customer demand, while producing top-quality products in the most
efficient and economical manner possible. The term is often used in connection with lean
manufacturing to imply a “zero inventory” just-in-time approach.
52
II-3 LEAN THINKING AND PRODUCTION PRINCIPLES
The lean thinking can be summarized in five principles: “precisely specify value by specific product,
identify the value stream for each product, make value flow without interruptions, let the customer pull
value from the producer, and pursue perfection”. By clearly understanding these principles, and then
tying them all together, managers can make full use of lean techniques and maintain a steady
course”(Womack and Jones, 2003).
-The starting point is to specify value from the point of view of the customer. This is an established
marketing idea that customers buy results, no products. Organizations begin to accurately specify
value. The value can only be defined by the ultimate customer and it’s only meaningful when
expressed in terms of specific product which meets the customer’s needs at a specific price at a
specific time. Lean thinking must start with a clear definition of value. It’s essential to have a clear
view of what’s really needed. To specify value accurately is the critical first step. It is important to
rethink value from the perspective of the customer.
-Identify the value stream. This is the set of all the specific actions or process required to bring a
specific product from raw material to final customer, or from product concept to market launch
through the three critical management tasks of any business: the problem solving task, the information
management task, the physical transformation task. The map and the measure of the value stream
should be done end-to-end and not departmentally. So, the focus should be done on the object (or
product or customer), and not on the department, machine or process step.
-To make the value-creating steps for specific products flow continuously thanks to production team.
The goal is to avoid batch and queue, or at least continuously reduce them and the obstacles in their
way.
-Let customers pull value from the enterprise: it is the ability to design, schedule, and make exactly
what the customer wants just when the customer wants. You can let the customer pull the product from
you as needed rather than pushing products.
-Perfection: it means delivering exactly what the customer wants, exactly when (with no delay), at a
fair price and with minimum of waste.
-Lean is a business model emphazing the elimination of waste while delivering quality products at the
least cost.
While most of the research stresses that competitiveness of lean production comes from physical
savings (less material, fewer parts, shorter production operation, less unproductive needed for set-ups,
etc…) on the technical side, a focus is also done on the “psychological efficiency” (commit, cognition,
empowerment, communication, and autonomous, etc..) the peripheral of the organizational
mechanism. Lean production is not just a technological system but also a concept implemented
throughout the whole company, which especially requires consensus on corporate culture (Wong,
2010). Lean production system has been one of the competitive advantages for Japanese enterprises,
and the cultural element behind it (Recht and Wilderom, 1998).
II-4 LEAN PRODUCTION, SUPPLY CHAIN STRATEGIES
The lean model requires less stock, less space, less movement of materials, less time to set up the
machinery, a smaller workforce, fewer computer systems and more frugal technology (Shahin,
Janatyan, 2010). Consequently, lean supply chains strategies focus on waste reduction, helping firms
eliminate non-value adding activities related to excess time, labor, equipment, space and inventories
across the supply chain (Corbett and Klassen, 2006). Such strategies enable firms to improve quality,
reduce costs, and improve service to customers (Larson and Greenwood, 2004). According the
taxonomy for pipeline selection (Christopher, Peck, Towill, 2006), a matrix suggests that there might
be four possible generic supply chain strategies according to three-dimensional classification
(products, demand, replenishment lead-times): lean (plan and execute), leagile (postponement), lean
(continuous replenishment), agile (quick response). Is has been suggested that lean concepts work well
where demand is relatively stable and hence predictable and where variety is low (Christopher, 2000).
53
Now the lean production paradigm positively impact many markets sectors where cost is the primary
order criteria (Hill, 1993). So, where demand is volatile and the customer requirement for variety is
high, a different approach is recommended. A “hybrid” solution can utilize lean principles when
designing supply chains for predictable standard products and agile principles for unpredictable or
“special” products. It may be that total demand for a product can be separated as “base” and “surge”
demand. Base demand is more predictable and less risky so lean principles can be applied, using agile
approaches to cope with surge demand (Christopher, Peck, Towill, 2006). It is also likely that products
may require different kinds of pipeline according to their position within the product life cycle. Fisher
(1997) claims that the reason why so many supply chain implementations fail is that they are wrongly
configured according to demand. He indicates that there are two categories of demand : Functional –
typically predictable, low margin, low variety, with longer life cycles and lead times, and no need to
mark down at end of season, and Innovative – typically less predictable, high margin, high variety,
shorter life cycles and lead times with end of season discounting common. Functional requires an
efficient process or supply chain, Innovative requires a responsive process. Mismatches between
demand and process give problems. For lean strategies the implications are that a product requiring a
responsive supply chain would be inappropriate in a low cost distant location. This may well mean
having more than one type of facility and demand chain to cope with different demand segments.
Finally, the supply chain strategy depends upon the supply and demand characteristics. If lead times
are long but demand is predictable “lean strategies” are possible, e.g make or source ahead of demand
in the most efficient way.
II-5 LEAN PRODUCTION,
DEVELOPMENT
SUPPLY
CHAIN
STRATEGIES
AND
SUSTAINABLE
The causal relationship between lean processes and environmental sustainability has been much
debated in literature (King and Lenox, 2001). Recent academic research (Hines, 2010) and surveys
find the most compelling reason for organizations adopting lean is the economic and environmental
benefits of going green. The consumer pressures to provide the right product at the right cost to the
right place at the right time and to be green. Sustainability has become one of the big themes in lean
particularly from an environmental perspective. The ideas of wasting fewer materials and energy and
avoiding polluting emissions fit extremely well with wider lean ideas. These paradigms lean and
sustainable may be combined to enable highly competitive supply chains capable of winning in a
volatile and cost-conscious environment. The goal is to examine the relationship between these supply
chain strategies, including their convergence and divergence.
Lean and green strategies are often seen as compatible initiatives because of their joint focus on waste
reduction (Mollenkopf et al., 2010). Womack (2000) underlines that lean thinking must be ‘’green’’
because it reduces the amount of energy and wasted by-products required to produce a given
product…Indeed, examples are often cited of reducing human effort, space, and scrap by 50 % or
more, per product produced, through applying lean principles in an organization…this means
that…lean’s role is to be green’s critical enabler as the massive waste in our current practices is
reduced. In these challenging economic times for manufacturers, lean could be a priority. Lean
manufacturing drives more effective and efficient resource utilization, reduces waste and energy
consumption, optimizes direct and indirect resources and helps ensure a better product at less cost. The
lean philosophy, eliminating waste, essentially comes down to taking many small actions to create big
results.
But, it seems important to differentiate “waste of time” and “waste of raw materials” as only in certain
conditions it is possible to combine the both. So, more and more manufacturers are extending lean
practices beyond the shop floor to enable green initiatives and meet sustainability mandates. Lean
produces an operational and cultural environment conducive to waste minimization and pollution
prevention. Indeed, the powerful economic and competitiveness drivers behind lean drive a willingness
to undertake substantial operational and cultural changes, many of which have important
environmental performances implications. Lean typically results in less material use, less scrap,
54
reduced water and energy use, and decreased number and amount of chemicals used. So, becoming
greener can reduce operating costs significantly and add customer value, two primary tenets of any
lean initiative.
Moreover, mass production led to economies of scale that reduced costs – as long as the company was
making a single model with no options. Today, consumers demand a customized product. Lean
focuses on eliminating unnecessary delays and movement. It creates economies of speed that reduce
costs and boost profits while minimizing environmental impacts. Whereas mass production focuses on
big batches, lean focuses on small batches and quick changeover. With mass production, it’s easy to
have overproduction, which creates inventory that has to be warehoused and managed. Lean only
creates a small batch when a customer requests it, thereby avoiding all unnecessary production or
inventory. It no longer makes sense to create a thousand units of a product quickly if consumers want a
product customized to their needs. So, the environmental impact that a shift from mass production to
lean production could produce is important. If a company only prepares enough products or services
to meet customer demand, it doesn’t have to inventory, store, or manage a lot of raw materials or
finished goods. This prevents the unnecessary movement of inventory, and reduces storage costs and
overtime. Lean production can lead to both a greener planet and increased profits. Thus, eliminating
delays and movement while reducing batch sizes and inventory not only speeds things up, it also
reduces the chance for error. Faster production – combined with less rework cuts costs – boosts profits
and reduces environmental impacts that range from the overuse of raw materials to high energy
consumption. Lean is not just about the bottom line or worker satisfaction, but it is also about green
initiatives.
Furthermore, leading organizations go beyond the basics of cutting waste and operating efficiently.
They embed environmental considerations into all aspects of their operations. Most businesses
overlook the single biggest opportunity they have to go green – simplifying, streamlining and
optimizing their internal operations. Eliminating activities that do not add value to the customer is the
real key to shop-floor effectiveness and enhancing green initiatives within the organization. Software
capabilities, value stream mapping, inventory optimization can contribute to reduce inventories and
lead times and to improve the financial results by productive and valuable activities. So, green
opportunities for identifying and reducing waste in the lean supply chain can be found in various
places: material costs, consumption of energy and natural resources, equipment efficiency, and
education of key stakeholders. It’s also reasonable to assume that eliminating waste, scrap and rework
would reduce not only costs but various environmental problems. In global companies, the adoption of
lean and green strategies in manufacturing organizations has resulted in processes becoming more
flexible, responsive, and competitive. With this improved responsiveness, organizations can quickly
adapt to the increasing complex demands of global manufacturing demands that require more
connectivity and more effective communication, among suppliers, and information system (ERP).
What Wal-Mart and other retailers have recognized and driven into the manufacturing sector is that
aligning green with lean across the entire supply chain drives both top line growth and margin
improvements while gaining respect from customers and consumers. How manufacturers can expand
lean philosophies and best practices into their sustainability initiatives. Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott has
said “Being a good steward of the environment and in our communities, and being an efficient and
profitable business, is not mutually exclusive. In fact they are one in the same”. But if Wal-Mart has
made some considerable changes with a strong commitment to being green, the question of WalMart’s Social responsibility has been criticized for underpaying its workers, offering limited benefits,
exploiting employees around the world…In order to have a good responsible corporate social
reputation, the company has realized investments in this field (for example, recognition of the WalMart de Mexico Foundation for its social responsibility actions)8. So, manufacturing companies can
proactively enable sustainability across all key business processes in their organization by
implementing the principles of lean. The underlying principles build efficiency within the enterprise
and across the entire supply chain, helping companies maintain success through continued process
8
Wal Mart Sustainability Report 2010
55
improvement. A lean solution for manufacturing ensures that plants, lines and machines run at peak
efficiency – a key component of enabling sustainability. It also ensures necessary spare parts for
maintenance are aligned with production requirements ensuring minimum down time and optimizing
runs. In the extended supply chain, lean solutions help align demand to capacity to optimize
production lines, and maximize energy and raw product utilization. For example, consumer companies
can apply lean principles to tightly align packaging material to specific production events, resulting in
more efficient use of materials, reduced waste and improved line and machine utilization. While the
issue of sustainability continues to mature and evolve, companies looking to take a leadership position
and enhance their business advantages can get started by implementing and expanding lean
manufacturing solutions across the entire supply chain to address the many aspects of meeting their
sustainability and revenue targets. For example, although the main goal is to convert muda into value,
the question is also where the value is created.
Equally, lean in the product development stage meets green goals by using less materials and
chemicals, yielding less waste, and reducing the consumption of energy and natural resources.
The best practice is to take into account the environmental compliance throughout the entire product
lifecycle, from concept to launch and into retirement, by integrating compliance into their product
development lifecycle processes. Successful product lifecycle management (PLM) solutions enable
organizations to manage and optimize the compliance of their products and programs with the
standards and regulations of the government and industry. These solutions should merge compliance
activities with product development and introduction processes, allowing companies to more reliably
comply with environmental standards. Manufacturers must be concerned with controlling pollution
and environmental waste at its source in order to address the rising cost of energy and natural
resources and the negative impact on climate change and global warming.
Besides, manufactures today are under pressure to adopt these strategies “Lean and Green” and to
create an environmental stance that is a driver for reduced costs and risks, increased revenues, and
improved brand image. Environmental regulations like the Restriction of Hazardous Substances
(RoHS) directive, the Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) directive, the Restriction,
Evaluation, and Authorisation of Chemicals (REACH) regulation have forced manufacturers to reexamine the entire lifecycle and environmental impacts on their products. King and Lenox (2001) find
that establishments that adopt the quality management standard ISO 9000 are more likely to adopt the
environmental management standard ISO 14000. They also find strong evidence that lean production
as measured by ISO 9000 adoption and low chemicals inventories is complementary to waste
reduction and pollution reduction. Therefore, such compliance efforts have already resulted in cleaner,
sager operations, reduced use and acceptable substitutions for hazardous substances, increased product
recyclability and recovery, and improved transparency of information available to suppliers, trading,
partners, employees, and customers. Nevertheless, tools and techniques (for example Plan Do Check
Act, one of the principle mechanisms for the scientific approach in the Toyota Production System)
should be treated as hypotheses to be tested in the particular situation at hand. Otherwise organizations
often fail to allow for local factors influencing the successful application and sustainability of tools and
techniques (Bicheno and Holweg, 2011).
Finally, lean production and sustainable supply chain create their “eco-advantage” in three main ways:
-Eco-efficiency (cutting out waste, using resources productively, and minimizing the carbon footprint).
Lean methods can develop sustainable green practices, particularly in the area of waste reduction.
- Eco-innovation (improving product and service designs so they’re based on green processes by
products and designing for recycling)
- Eco-transparency: gaining and sharing full visibility into the value chain so that your business can
promote its green brand and enhance and protect its overall brand.
In fact, manufacturers can still achieve cost savings in addition to environmental benefits by
integrating their Lean and Green initiatives. Therefore, lean have long been linked to improved
operational performance. And there is evidence that these process improvement philosophies and their
associated tools improve environmental performance as well (e.g, Clark 1999; Curkovic, Melnyk,
Handfield and Calantone 2000; king and Lenox 2001).
56
However it is also possible that these programs, while useful, are not sufficient to become sustainable
and long term could even be hindrances (Benner and Tushman 2002). When lean initiatives enable
only demanded volumes to flow through the supply chain (and not the safety stock and extra inventory
associated with non-lean supply chains), a reduced amount of inventory needs to be sourced, produced,
transported, packaged and handled, which also minimizes the negative environmental impact of the
supply chain.
Furthermore, lean strategies that employ just-in-time (JIT) delivery of small lot sizes can require
increased transportation, packaging, and handling that may contradict a green approach (Mollenkopf et
al., 2010). Rothenberg et al. (2001) indicates that not all lean processes and waste reduction are
positively related to environmental performance or pollution reduction. For example, failing to adopt a
holistic view of the supply chain might result in the transfer of wastes to other members of the supply
chain, thereby not eliminating waste by simply shifting it to others. If management in the
manufacturing company focuses internally to become leaner and pushes inventory away to customers
and suppliers, the supply chain could be worse-off than if the manufacturing company holds the
necessary amount of inventory to make the supply chain as a whole more efficient, particularly if the
inventory costs are higher for other parties in the supply chain. The manufacturing company might be
leaner, but the costs and burdens associated with the supplier’s waste ultimately will be passed along
to the customer. The implementation of lean thinking requires extending its application across the
operations of the key members of the supply chain (Goldsby, Garcia-Dastugue, 2009).
Moreover, a supply chain may be currently utilizing its resources efficiently, and producing the desired
output, and have sustainable effects but will the supply chain be able to adjust to changes like product
demand, supplier shortages, manufacturing unreliability…with the same sustainable effects? For
example, a reduction in system resources may negatively affect the supply chain’s flexibility. Lewis
(2000) suggested that being “lean” can curtain the firm’s ability to achieve long-term flexibility and
sustainable competitive advantage”. Moreover, although lean currently produces environmental
benefits and establishes a systematic continual-improvement-based waste elimination culture, lean
methods do not explicitly incorporate environmental performance considerations, foregoing some
environmental improvement opportunities. From these perspectives, lean production and sustainable
supply chain could have contradictory sustainable effects. By recognizing this conflict, firms may be
able to identify trade-offs or develop solutions that mitigate undesirable consequences.
Thus, there is a need to develop a system approach to understand how firms can best manage these
paradigms to optimize the sustainable supply chain as a whole. Different solutions could be possible
and be condensed in three themes:
- International best practices.
The best practices in lean and supply chain management that have received significant attention in
regard to sustainability are collaboration and certification. Collaborative behaviors with suppliers and
customers are a component of creating an environmentally sustainable supply chains (Carter and
Carter 1998; Zhu and Sarkis 2004). Goodman (2000) posits that there have to be incentives to reduce
suppliers’ risks from engaging in the new collaborative processes required by sustainability. And Rao
and Halt (2005) suggest that firms need to educate their suppliers and have their suppliers educate each
other. Furthermore, certification is one of the few areas where social issues such as child labor and
unsafe working conditions are addressed in the sustainable supply chain management literature (e.g,
Teuscher, Gruninger and Ferdinand 2005). So, international cross-functional collaboration and
international certification will increasingly differentiate companies that meet the full range of their
strategic goals from those that don’t. Companies that can ensure closer partnerships between
international operations and groups will be able to respond more quickly to changing trends at lower
costs and with a better competitive advantage. Best practices could be identified for implementing lean
sustainable supply chain and could be driven by key performance indicators, company’s carbon
footprint that could measure or monitor sustainable supply chain.
57
- Integration
To create the link between lean and sustainable supply chains need to integrate lean principles,
sustainability goals, supply chain, practices and cognition into day-to-day management (Pagell, Wu,
2009). At the firm level there is evidence that linking sustainability goals and measures to corporate
strategy helps to integrate sustainability into what the organization does (Azzone and Noci 1998). At
the individual level, employees need to be trained in sustainability (Starik and Rands 1995) and then
given incentives to follow through (Daily and Huand 2001). Such linkages provide employees the
incentives to pursue sustainability goals such as quality improvement. Without these incentives
employees are likely to continue pursuing only traditional goals (Handfield, Melnyk, Calantone and
Curkovic 2001). Lean provides an excellent platform for broadening companies’ definition of waste to
address environmental risk and product life cycle considerations. Possible coordination or
collaboration could exist between the environmental and lean networks. Many consumer
manufacturing companies are adopting sustainability initiative in response to internal drivers such as
cost reduction, commodity risk management, and upholding corporate culture. Clos-knit collaboration
between retailers, distributors and manufacturers appears to be the driver of success for sustainability
initiatives. The green supply chain literature has examined the importance of working across the
supply chain with both customers and suppliers on environmental initiatives, which has been shown to
lead to improved firm performance (Vachon and Klassen, 2006b). More research on the
subcomponents of the supply chain should be undertaken to understand how to obtain synergies from
the drivers, overcome the barriers, and make trade-offs where necessary (Mollenkopf et al., 2010).
Points of convergence have been identified and some principles could be either a driver or a barrier,
depending how firms optimizes the trade-off between the two paradigms. This could be done by
mapping internal supply chain operations. Identify where environmental and social-responsability
problems or opportunities lie. Evaluate alternative ways to make improvements that may require
trade-offs between the different paradigms. Thus, it seems to be important to make an assessment of
the points of convergence and divergence across these paradigms in terms of sustainable supply chain
especially by the value stream map approach.
-Reinvent the supply chain:
A different theme is on reconceptualizing the supply chain and changing managerial cognitions. An
important theoretical discussion suggests that an organization should consider its relationships with the
broader social and natural environments. There as a member of the community where its business is
conducted, an organization should consider the well-being of broader constituents in the socialecological-industrial system (e.g, Shrivastava 1994).
Consequently, companies should pursue broader structural change than they typically do. These may
include sweeping innovations in production processes, the development of fundamentally different
relationships with business partners that can evolve into new service models (Lee, 2010). The
transformation – something radical with supply chain could share networks with adjacent operations,
the extended supply chain and different competitors.
The transformation could be done thanks to third parties logistics in order to analyze and test the
opportunities.
58
CONCLUSION
An attempt has been made to present lean and sustainable paradigm in the light of international supply
chains. Lean production has an impact on the global sustainable supply chain and conversely but it is
difficult to estimate the real effect given the supply chain complexity according to different drivers and
barriers. It should be recommended to assess this link in a holistic approach to sustainability. Indeed,
the only way companies can recognize and navigate trade-offs or conflicts in their supply chains is to
treat sustainability as integral to operations (Lee, 2010) on international markets with suppliers and
customers.
Trade-offs between emissions and profitability may lead companies to explore new kinds of supply
relationships, including the transfer of best practices to supply chain partners. Company’s carbon
footprint could be major strategic considerations for supply chains. But this model encompasses only
some of the many dimensions of the sustainability. Consequently, it could be interesting to refer to
ecological footprint models since their scope is more holistic than the carbon footprint in order to
ensure that all supply chain members meet agreed-upon sustainable standards and targets. To create a
link between lean production and global sustainable supply chains then seems to require proactive top
management culture that lean, sustainability and supply chain is a cross-organizational commitment
for an overall operational performance.
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SPÉCIFICITÉ DES PME DE SERVICES SUPÉRIEURS
FRANÇAISES A L’INTERNATIONAL : LE RÔLE
DES TECHNOLOGIES DE L'INFORMATION ET DE LA
COMMUNICATION
COLLIN Paul Marc
Groupe de recherche Magellan, Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3
THIVANT Eric,
Centre de recherche, Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3
MORISET Bruno
Université Jean-Moulin Lyon 3, NRS-UMR 5600 EVS
BRETTE Olivier
INSA de Lyon, CNRS-UMR 5600 EVS 9
Résumé
Cet article s’intéresse aux PME Internationales et à la façon dont leur management mobilise les
technologies de l’information et de la communication. Il s’agit de voir comment des PME à dimension
internationale gèrent la distance et leur éloignement vis-à-vis de leurs clients, alors même qu’elles sont
elles-mêmes situées dans des zones d’activités périphériques, dispersées sur un territoire donné en
prenant le cas de la France comme exemple. Nous pourrons ainsi voir les différences existantes entre
des entreprises à dimension régionale, voire nationale et des entreprises à dimension européenne ou
mondiale, et comment elles gèrent leurs technologies de l’information et de la communication sur un
territoire donné. Nous présenterons dans un premier temps un état de l’art sur la théorie du
management des entreprises internationales et leurs relations à la proximité et/ou distance avec les
TIC dans différentes régions françaises, surtout lorsque ces PME sont dans des zones blanches, c'est-àdire exclues des grands axes et réseaux de communication (privées de fibre optique par exemple). Puis
nous nous présenterons la méthodologie de l’enquête, le questionnaire et son traitement par le cabinet
ENOV Research, les analyses menées et enfin nous nous concentrons sur les perspectives de recherche
et notamment envisager la poursuite de ces travaux avec d’autres pays européens comme la république
tchèque.
Mots-clés : entreprises internationales, PME, technologies de l’information et de la communication,
proximité et distance.
Abstract
This article deals with International SMEs and their strategic management linked with information and
communication technologies. We would like to know how International SMEs manage their distance
and proximity with clients, when they are themselves in peripherical area. We will take as an example
the case of French International SMEs. We will compare the difference in terms of ICT management
between local or regional SMEs and European or International SMEs. First of all, we will present the
state of Art of International Management Studies, then we will focus on the relations between ICT and
9
Cet article s’insère dans un projet de recherche intitulé : Communication distante, organisation de la production et
économie cognitive dans les territoires périphériques : État des lieux et enjeux de développement
(http://www.enovresearch.fr/). Le projet est financé par l’Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) et piloté par B.
Moriset, responsable scientifique du projet. Cet article a bénéficié de l’expertise d’enseignants-chercheurs de l’université
Lyon 3 et de l’INSA de Lyon ainsi que du travail de terrain et des interviews réalisés par J. Beaufrère, Y. Deschaux, et C.
Ramirez, étudiants de master à l’Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3 et par J. Smith, R. Rouma, J. Crespy, et C. Maniquet,
étudiants en M2 Management Industriel & Logistique à l’IAE de Lyon. Les auteurs remercient également M. le Professeur
Y. Chappoz et A. Silem pour leur implication initiale dans ce projet, ainsi que le cabinet ENOV Research pour son
implication dans le traitement de l’enquête.
http://www.enovresearch.fr/
64
Entreprises. Secondly, we will focus on the DISCOTEC study, with the development of the
methodology, the sample chosen and the analysis of the ground. Finally we will discuss the results and
open new perspectives and we will compare our work with other countries such as the Czech Republic
Keywords : International Enterprises, International SMES, ICT, Proximity, Distance
INTRODUCTION ET RAPIDE ÉTAT DES LIEUX SUR L’UTILISATION DES TIC DANS
LES PME
En premier lieu, l’utilisation des technologies de l’information et de la communication en France est en
progression depuis ces dix dernières années au niveau des entreprises. Selon l’étude PME réalisée par
l’observatoire Régional des Télécommunications (ORTEL) réalisé par les cabinets TACTIS et IDATE
dans 10 régions françaises10 en 2005, « la croissance du nombre de PC par salarié s’est poursuivi à un
rythme régulier, en revanche la croissance du nombre de PC raccordé par salarié s’est sensiblement
ralenti par rapport à la période 2002/2004. Il semble qu’en matière de connexion Internet un plafond
ait été atteint autour de 90%». De plus dans les régions françaises, « Le taux d’équipement
informatique de l’ensemble des PME est inférieur de 3 points à la moyenne nationale. Le taux de
connexion Internet de l’ensemble des PME est inférieur de 8 points à la moyenne nationale. » Ceci
« nécessite un effort de sensibilisation accru pour convaincre les réfractaires » d’après ce rapport. Des
connexions haut débits sont demandées par les PME et elles utilisent principalement l’ADSL qui est
« dominant pour 91% des entreprises. » Selon cette étude, « un peu plus de 40% des PME disposent
d’un site Web, soit une croissance de 6 points en 12 mois, conforme aux projets des PME. Le taux est
inférieur de 13 points à la moyenne nationale. Le palier de 50% reste difficile à franchir dans un
grand nombre de zones comme annoncé lors de l’enquête précédente. L’objectif premier des sites Web
pour les PME reste la publicité mais aussi dans une moindre mesure le renforcement du service
consommateur et la collecte d’informations sur les clients. Bien que modestes, le e-commerce et le
recrutement en ligne commencent à séduire les PME. Ces deux services étaient quasiment inexistants
en 2004 ». Comme nous pouvons le constater ici la fracture numérique est bien présente sur le
territoire français et comme le rappelle Moriset, « le développement de l’économie numérique multiplie
les opportunités pour le développement d’activités économiques réalisables à distance » (2011 : 1). Il
devient intéressant de se poser des questions concernant le rôle des technologies de l’information et de
la communication pour des PME qui veulent se développer notamment à l’international.
ÉTAT DE L’ART SUR LE MANAGEMENT DES PME INTERNATIONALES ET LEURS
SPECIFICITES
Les PME Internationales sont de plus en plus étudiées ces derniers temps et de mieux en mieux
connues par de nombreux travaux de chercheurs dont Rallet, Torre, Galliano and Roux. L’un des
principaux objectifs de ces chercheurs est de comprendre la spécificité du management de ces
entreprises et notamment comment elles peuvent se développer dans un environnement hétérogène et
pas nécessairement au cœur des grands centres urbains. Il s’agit alors de répondre à la question de la
distance et / ou de la proximité vis-à-vis de leurs fournisseurs et/ou de leurs clients. Les technologies
de l’information et de la communication peuvent permettent à ces entreprises d’être plus présentes sur
des marchés locaux et / ou lointains. Cependant, tous les chercheurs en sciences de gestion ou en
sciences de l’information et de la communication ne sont pas unanimes pour accorder un rôle
prépondérant à l’utilisation des technologies de l’information et de la communication pour le
développement des entreprises internationales. Certains considèrent qu’ils sont des relais essentiels,
mais pas suffisants pour le développement de ces PME à vocation mondiale (Rallet & Torre, 2007).
D’autres auteurs attribuent aux TIC au contraire un rôle majeur comme un constituant essentiel de la
politique managériale (Laudon & Laudon, 2004) et par voie de conséquence du développement
international.
L’économie étant mondialisée, toute entreprise, y comprit la PME, doit y participer activement. Cette
internationalisation prend différentes formes : export, collaboration, investissement direct.
10
Régions françaises concernées par l’enquête PME ORTEL : Aquitaine, Auvergne, Champagne-Ardenne, Corse, FrancheComté, Ile de France, Lorraine, Picardie, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, Rhône-Alpes
65
L’observation montre que les profils d’internationalisation sont contrastés, mais qu’industrie et
services sont également impactés. Si l’approche collaborative (alliances, joint-ventures,…) est de plus
en plus fréquente, force est de constater que l’export reste la modalité la plus fréquente pour les PME.
Jusqu’à maintenant l’internationalisation se faisait par étapes, sur le modèle d’Uppsala : export, puis
recherche d’un agent, puis ouverture d’une filiale (Johanson & Vahlne, 2009). La tendance plus
récente est à la recherche d’une vision d’ensemble de l’internationalisation, de manière individuelle à
chaque entreprise ou sous forme d’actions collectives (chambres de commerce, agences, cabinetsconseils, réseaux de dirigeants).
Les motivations à l’internationalisation des PME sont très variées, mais le principal reste le chiffre
d’affaires additionnel via l’accès aux marchés extérieurs. pour réaliser ce projet, la collecte
d’information se fait par les réseaux de dirigeants de PME et de partenaires (fournisseurs,
distributeurs). Mais l’enjeu nouveau concerne l’utilisation des TIC, car ils permettent potentiellement
de se passer de distributeurs, donc de réduire les coûts tout en favorisant une relation directe avec les
clients à l’étranger.
L’Internet permet non seulement la vente en ligne, mais fournit une palette considérable d’outils
marketing (référencement, réseaux sociaux, forums, …) à la disposition de la PME ayant une ambition
internationale. Les réseaux de télécommunications facilitent le processus d’internationalisation de la
PME et créent de nouvelles opportunités de contacts et d’affaires à l’international (Spigarelli, 2003 ;
Dellner, 1999 ; Karlsson, 1998). Les PME peuvent collaborer au sein de réseaux pour maximiser
l’information reçue et traitée par elles. La dimension des politiques publiques n’est pas absente puisqu’
elles peuvent contribuer à créer les conditions de succès des entreprises du pays.
Les PME constituent une part importante du développement économique, et du développement
international en particulier, tant dans les pays développés que dans les pays émergents. De nombreuses
recherches se sont intéressées à cet objet, encouragées par la présence montante des PME dans les
opérations internationales. Leur processus d’internationalisation ne cesse de grandir.
Les théories traditionnelles de l’internationalisation, focalisées sur les FMNs, ne rendent que
partiellement compte des processus à l’œuvre pour les PME, même si quelques travaux en font leur
objet de recherche spécifique (Dana, Etemad and Wright, 1999). C’est pourquoi d’autres théories et
concepts ont été suggérés : L’approche par phases, l’approche par les réseaux et l’approche de
l’entrepreneurship international.
L’approche par les étapes consiste à présenter un modèle séquentiel (Melin, 1992). On parle volontiers
du modèle d’Uppsala (U-Model, initié par Johanson, Wiedersheim-Paul et Vahlne (1977).
Plus récemment, Coviello et Munro (1997) suggèrent que les PME comptent sur leurs réseaux
relationnels pour sélectionner des marches étrangers ainsi que les modes d’entrée. L’approche de
l’entrepreneur international introduit la notion de Born Global, qui sont de nouvelles entreprises, à
vocation immédiatement internationale.
Ces recherches ont montré une rapide internationalisation de ces PME (Knight and Cavusgil, 1996).
Ici, l’entrepreneur adopte une vision globale de son développement depuis la création.
Ce que l’on peut retenir de cette rapide revue de littérature, c’est que les handicaps visibles des PME
en matière de taille et de moyens financiers peuvent être partiellement, voire totalement compensés par
les effets-réseaux et les stratégies de rapide internationalisation. Cela suppose une approche très
ouverte du management, et une confiance en les qualités de sa gamme de produits et services. Les
entreprises que nous allons présenter dans la partie empirique du papier utilisent ces approches
positives.
PROBLÉMATIQUE ET HYPOTHÈSES DE TRAVAIL
Dans cet article, nous travaillerons sur la problématique de la spécificité managériale des PME qui se
développent à l’international. Notre principale proposition est de considérer que les technologies de
l'information et de la communication accompagnent nécessairement le développement international
des petites et moyennes entreprises, situées en zones urbaine, péri-urbaine voire dans des territoires
ruraux . C’est une condition nécessaire pour le développement de l’international des PME, mais
certainement pas suffisante pour expliquer leurs succès. Pour valider cette proposition, nous
chercherons à tester l’hypothèse de travail suivante : « Les petites et moyennes entreprises à vocation
66
internationale situées dans des territoires ruraux , péri-urbains ou urbains ont des usages plus avancés
des technologies de l’information et de la communication (sites web,
vidéoconférence,
webconférences, flux rss, etc.), que les petites et moyennes entreprises ayant principalement une
clientèle locale, régionale ou nationale et investissent plus en matière d’e-commerce. Nous ferons
PRÉSENTATION DE L’ENQUÊTE ET DE L’ÉCHANTILLON RETENU
Pour pouvoir démontrer nos hypothèses, nous reprendrons les données récupérées au cours de
l’enquête DISCOTEC (pour DIStant COmmunication TEChnology and the Economy of Cognition in
peripheral areas). Ce projet est un projet de recherche de trois ans (2009-2011) financé par l’Agence
Nationale de la Recherche, piloté par Moriset, responsable scientifique du projet. Nous présentons ici
quelques résultats de l’enquête fondés sur les entretiens auprès des entreprises des espaces
périphériques. Le premier questionnaire qualitatif comportait près de 128 questions concernant les
pratiques des PME en matière de TIC, sur les types d’applications utilisées e, sur la pratique de l'ecommerce et les usages d’outils avancés de communication. Enfin, cette étude s’intéresse aux relations
existantes entre les TIC, la situation géographique et les changements organisationnels mis en œuvre
dans les entreprises. Une première enquête d’inspiration qualitative a été réalisée auprès d’un
échantillon restreint d’entreprises (échantillon de 70 entreprises dont 24 PME à vocation mondiale ou
européenne11). Elle a été conduite durant l’année universitaire 2009-2010. Après avoir tiré quelques
observations de cette première analyse, une seconde enquête auprès d’un échantillon de près de 400
entreprises rurales dont 107 entreprises à vocation internationale (26,8%) et près de 300 entreprises
lyonnaises dont 88 entreprises internationales (29,3 %) a été conduite durant l’année universitaire
2010-2011. Le second questionnaire quantitatif comportait 68 réponses, avec des questions sur les
entreprises, les réseaux, les usages et sur le territoire de l’entreprise. Dans le cadre de la présente étude,
nous présenterons seulement les résultats sur la typologie des entreprises étudiées, et leurs usages des
technologies de l’information et de la communication. Nous ne nous étendrons pas sur le territoire de
l’entreprise, car ces questions répondent à d’autres problématiques que nous n’avons pas le temps de
traiter ici.
ANALYSE DE L’ÉCHANTILLON
Voici quelques caractéristiques générales des entreprises étudiées (effectifs courants) ci-dessous.
L'étude a utilisé comme base de données un fichier SIRENE de l'INSEE de 4888 entreprises (zone
rurale uniquement), réparties dans sept blocs métiers. Près de 400 entreprises en zone rurale et près de
300 entreprises en zone urbaine ont été interrogées par téléphone. Nous avons essayé de conserver une
certaine proportionnalité des secteurs par rapport au fichier d'origine. Compte tenu du grand nombre
d'entreprises ne comptant aucun salarié (70 %), l'étude n'a pas conservé la représentativité du point de
vue des effectifs (40 % d'entreprises sans salariés sur les 400 observations en zone rurale).
11
Parmi ces 16 entreprises, 13 ont moins de 60 salariés (81,3%), une entreprise à entre 60 et 119 salariés (6,3%) et deux
plus de 300 salariés (12,5%). Nous avons élargi notre échantillon en considérant qu’il existe 24 PME à vocation soit
mondiale, soit européenne. A des fins de comparaison à la suite de l’étude, nous prendrons les 24 PME dans son ensemble
(clients internationaux et européens).
67
Base INSEE Observations
Bloc Métier
A
Édition et production
de contenus
B Informatique
C Prépresse, publicité
et design
D Traduction
E Architecture
F
Activités
administratives de
bureau et divers
G Analyse, ingénierie,
contrôle, R&D
Total
Base Insee
Zone Rurale
Observation
zone Rurale
318
27
Observation
zone Urbaine
(Lyon)
20
927
694
78
60
58
45
210
778
788
17
64
57
13
48
43
1173
97
73
4888
400
300
Tableau 1 : L’échantillon classé par bloc métier
Nous nous sommes concentrés sur quelques « blocs métiers » précis pour que les deux échantillons
(zone rurale et zone urbaine) portent sur les mêmes secteurs d'activité. Pour contrôler le facteur
"secteur d'activité", il était nécessaire d'interroger des entreprises ayant des activités proches, dans les
territoires ruraux d'une part, à Lyon d'autre part. Les entreprises lyonnaises ont été sélectionnées
aléatoirement, suivant la distribution des questionnaires ruraux faits. Il n’existe aucun rapport avec la
distribution réelle des entreprises lyonnaises.
Bloc Métier
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Édition et production de
contenus
Informatique
Pré presse, publicité et
design
Traduction
Architecture
Activités administrative de
bureau et divers
Analyse, ingénierie,
contrôle technique, R&D
Total
Zone Rurale
Nb. Cit.
27
%
6,75%
Zone Urbaine (Lyon)
Nb. Cit.
%
20
6,67%
78
60
19,50%
15,00%
58
45
19,33%
15,00%
17
64
57
4,25%
16,00%
14,25%
13
48
43
4,33%
16,00%
14,33%
97
24,25%
73
24,33%
400
100 %
300
100 %
Tableau 2 : Les métiers étudiés (zone rurale / zone urbaine)
Des entreprises de taille identique
Pour contrôler le facteur "taille", il était nécessaire d'interroger des entreprises de taille comparable.
Une question concerne la taille de l'établissement (90% des entreprises interrogées n'ont qu'un seul
établissement, dans le rural comme à Lyon). L'échantillon ne cherche pas à être représentatif de la
taille des entreprises.
Une majorité de petites entreprises
68
Nr.
1
2à3
4à5
6à9
10 à 19
20 et plus
Total
Zone rurale
Nb. cit.
Fréq.
Zone urbaine (Lyon)
Nb.
cit. Fréq.
0
167
119
54
31
22
7
400
0%
41,8%
29,8%
13,5%
10,0%
3,3%
1,8%
100%
1
125
71
47
37
13
6
300
0,3%
41,7%
23,7%
15,7%
12,3%
4,3%
2,0%
100%
Tableau 3 : Effectif courant de l'établissement (zone rurale / zone urbaine –agglomération de Lyon)
Deux questions étaient posées aux entreprises pour connaitre le type de clientèle qu’elles visaient. La
première question était une question à choix suggéré multiple avec plusieurs réponses possibles sur la
géographie des clients et la seconde sur la clientèle principale de l’entreprise. À l'issue de ces
questions, nous avons obtenu deux tableaux importants ci-dessous.
Géographie des clients
Locale
Zone rurale
Nb
267
%
66,8%
Zone urbaine
Nb
247
%
82,3 %
Régionale
241
60,3%
234
78,0 %
Nationale
199
49,8%
187
62,3 %
Internationale
107
26,8%
88
29,3 %
Non réponse
5
1,3%
5
1,7 %
Tableau 4 : La géographie des clients NB P plusieurs réponses possibles
Pour l'analyse croisée, les entreprises ont été classées en quatre catégories d'échelle croissante, qui
s'excluent mutuellement :
Catégorisation par type de clientèle
A : Revendiquent uniquement une clientèle
locale :
B : Possèdent une clientèle régionale, ou
régionale et locale
C : Clientèle nationale (sans exclure A ou B)
mais pas internationale
D : Servent des clients à l'international (sans
exclure A, B, ou C)
Non réponse
Total
Zone rurale
Nb
%
67
16,75 %
Zone urbaine
Nb
%
28
9,3 %
108
27 %
80
26,7%
113
28,25%
99
33 %
107
26,75 %
88
29,3 %
5
400
1,25 %
100 %
5
300
1,7 %
100 %
Tableau 5 : catégorisation par type de clientèle (zone rurale versus zone urbaine)
69
Pour synthétiser, en zone rurale 220 entreprises sur 395 ont répondu (55,7 %) qu’elles travaillent à
longue distance (clientèle nationale ou internationale), alors que 175 entreprises (44,3 %) se
cantonnent à un marché local ou régional, dont 67 opérant uniquement localement. En zone urbaine,
187 entreprises déclarent travailler au niveau national ou international et seulement 108 au niveau local
ou régional.
Concernant les entreprises internationales, nous pouvons aussi les classer par bloc métier : ainsi nous
recensons 107 entreprises à vocation internationale (26,8%) dans les zones rurales et près de 88
entreprises à vocation internationale en zone urbaine ou péri urbaine (29,3 %) de notre échantillon total
de 700 entreprises (400 entreprises en zone rurale et 300 entreprises en zone urbaine).
Bloc Métier (entreprises
Zone Rurale
internationales)
Nb. Cit.
A
Edition et production de
9
contenus
B
Informatique
21
C
Pré presse, publicité et
11
design
D
Traduction
14
E
Architecture
15
F
Activités administrative de
11
bureau et divers
G
Analyse, ingénierie,
26
contrôle technique, R&D
Total
107
%
8,41%
Zone Urbaine (Lyon)
Nb. Cit.
%
11
12,50%
19,63%
10,28%
18
12
20,45%
13,64%
13,08%
14,02%
10,28%
12
7
4
13,64%
7,95%
4,55%
24,30%
24
27,27%
100 %
88
100 %
Tableau 6 : Bloc Métier (entreprises internationales)
Concernant les effectifs courants dans les entreprises à vocation internationale, nous pouvons observer
un nombre important de petites entreprises.
Nombre de salariés
Zone Rurale
Zone Urbaine
(agglomération lyonnaise)
Nb. Cit.
%
Nb. Cit.
%
1
42
40
39,25%
45,45%
2
20
12
18,69%
13,64%
3 à 5 (exclus)
20
17
18,69%
19,32%
Entre 5 et 10 (inclus)
14
15
13,08%
17,05%
Plus de 10
11
4
10,28%
4,55%
107
100 %
88
100 %
Tableau 7: Effectif courant dans les entreprises internationales (questionnaire quantitatif)
Comme nous pouvons le voir sur notre graphique les petites et moyennes entreprises à vocation
internationale ont moins de 50 salariés généralement, à quelques exceptions près (dans l’agglomération
lyonnaise, nous avons identifié une entreprise de plus de 250 employés et une autre de plus de 80
employés). En moyenne, les PME Internationales emploient 3,94 salariés sur place. Et en moyenne
près de 38,50 salariés tous établissements confondus.
Pour pouvoir tester notre hypothèse principale qui postule que « les petites et moyennes entreprises à
vocation internationale situées dans des territoires ruraux, péri-urbains ou urbains ont des usages plus
avancés des technologies de l’information et de la communication (sites web, vidéoconférence,
webconférences, flux rss, etc.), que les petites et moyennes entreprises ayant principalement une
clientèle locale, régionale ou nationale et investissent plus en matière d’e-commerce.
70
Les entreprises internationales et leur présence sur internet (site web)
En utilisant les résultats de l’étude quantitative, il apparaît que les PME à vocation Internationale sont
davantage présentes sur internet que celles à vocation locale, régionale ou nationale.
Type de
PME
/Site web
Internatio
nale
Zone Rurale
chi2 =3,471, ddl=1, p=0 ,062
Nb
%
Nb
%
.
.
Cit
Cit
.
.
Ou
No
i
n
66 30,56% 41 22,28%
Zone Urbaine (agglomération lyonnaise)
chi2 = 6,071, ddl = 1, p=0,014
Tota Nb.
%
Nb
%
Total
l
Cit.
.
Lyon
Rura Oui
Cit
l
.
No
n
35,03
21,14%
107
62
26
88
%
61,68%
38,32%
100
%
70,45
29,55 %
100%
75,61%
207
44,93%
100%
%
Nationale,
Régionale
, locale
15
0
69,44%
14
3
77,72%
293
114
93
%
51,19%
48,81
100
%
55,07
%
Non
réponse
64,41
0
21
6
0
100 %
0
18
4
0
100 %
%
0
1
0,56%
4
3,25%
5
400
177
100%
12
3
100%
300
Tableau 8 : type de PME et site web
L’analyse de ce tableau montre qu’il existe une relation significative entre ces deux variables (type de
PME et site web). Il nous faut alors calculer le khi-deux pour vérifier notre hypothèse sur ces deux
échantillons.
En ce qui concerne la zone urbaine ou périurbaine, le nombre d’observations valides est de 295
entreprises, soit 98.3 % de notre échantillon. Le Khi-Deux de Pearson est de 6.071, avec un degré de
liberté équivalent à 1 et une signification asymptotique de 0,014, ce qui est très significatif. 1-p = 98,6
%. Nous avons fait de même avec la zone rurale. Le nombre d’observations est cette fois-ci de 400
entreprises. Le Khi-Deux de Pearson est de 3,471 (ce qui est encore plus élevé), avec un degré de
liberté équivalent à 1 et une signification asymptotique de 0,062, ce qui est encore un peu significatif.
La dépendance entre les deux variables nous confirme qu’il existe bien une relation entre la mise en
place d’un site web et le type de PME (internationale ou non). En résumé, une entreprise est plus
souvent internationale quand elle a un site web, que quand elle n’en a pas. Et cela est vrai pour 6 %
dans les zones rurales et moins de 5 % pour les zones urbaines. Les analyses complémentaires menées
au cours de l’analyse qualitative complète ces observations, même si elles ne nous permettent pas de
tirer d’autres conclusions aussi tranchées.
Conférences téléphoniques et entreprises
71
De même nous avons voulu savoir si les PME Internationales utilisent ou non les conférences
téléphoniques. Or comme nous pouvons le voir dans le tableau 8, lorsque nous faisons un tableau
croisé dynamique et le test du Khi-Deux, la dépendance entre ces deux variables est très significative
pour les PME Internationales de la zone urbaine et périurbaine (chi2=14,368, dll =1, p=0.0001%).
Type de
PME/
Conféren
ce
téléphoni
que
Internatio
nale
Zone Rurale
chi2 =9,292b, ddl=1, p=0 ,002
Nb
%
Nb
%
.
.
Cit
Cit
.
.
Ou
No
i
n
41,79%
23,72%
chi2 = 14,368 a, ddl = 1, p=0.0001
Tota Nb.
%
Nb.
%
Total
l
Cit.
Cit.
Lyon
Rura Oui
Non
l
48,44
107
24,15%
88
64,77
100%
%
28
Nationale,
Régionale
, locale
26,17%
79
58,21%
73,83%
100
%
31
76,28%
293
39
13,31%
25
4
86,69%
100
%
35,23
57
%
%
50,00
74,15%
207
84,54%
100%
%
32
15,46
175
%
Non
réponse
0
67
0
100 %
0
33
3
0
100 %
0
1
1,56%
4
1,69%
5
400
64
100%
236
100%
300
a. 0 cellules (0%) ont un effectif théorique inférieur à 5. L'effectif théorique minimum est de 18,79.
b. 0 cellules (0%) ont un effectif théorique inférieur à 5. L'effectif théorique minimum est de 17,92.
Tableau 9 : Type de PME / Conférences téléphoniques
Concernant les PME à vocation internationale qui sont situées dans des zones rurales, nous avons fait
aussi un tri croisé avec celles qui font régulièrement des conférences téléphoniques, et un test de
dépendance. Et comme nous pouvons le voir dans le tableau, la dépendance entre les deux variables
est très significative, ce qui nous confirme qu’il existe bien une relation entre le fait d’organiser des
conférences par téléphone et le type de PME (internationale ou non). La valeur du Chi2 est même très
élevée chi2=9,292, ddl=1, p=0.002. Ce qui signifie là encore qu’on a plus de chance de croiser une
entreprise internationale qui fait des conférences téléphoniques que quand on est une entreprise
nationale, régionale ou locale et cela en raison de 0.2%
La Visioconférence au cœur des entreprises internationales
Pour la question de la visioconférence, nous obtenons aussi des résultats assez proches de ceux des
conférences téléphoniques. Nous avons fait l’hypothèse que les PME Internationales utilisaient la
visioconférence. La dépendance est très significative avec un chi2=8,036, dll=1 et un p=0.005). Donc
72
les PME qui se développent à l’internationale et qui sont situées dans des zones urbaines et périurbaine
ont tendance à utiliser la visioconférence avec un taux d’erreur de 0.5%.
Au cours de l’enquête qualitative, nous avons rencontré une société anonyme, que nous appellerons
Logiglobe, qui utilise la vidéoconférence. Elle travaille régulièrement par vidéoconférence via Skype,
pour discuter avec ses collaborateurs et ses administrateurs résidant à l'étranger, dont un à Londres. La
conférence téléphonique étant utilisée de temps en temps.
Selon Bruno Moriset, « la plus grande partie des entreprises utilise Skype. Et il est intéressant de
noter que les entreprises urbaines sont un peu plus fréquemment équipées d’une installation dédiée en
interne. Mais le nombre reste faible (8 sur 300). » (Moriset, 2011). Pour la question de la
visioconférence dans les territoires ruraux, le test de dépendance des deux variables est aussi assez
significatif, (chi2= 20.075, dll=1, p=0,0001).
Une étude plus poussée serait nécessaire sur le type de réseaux sociaux utilisé par les entreprises
internationales. Bruno Moriset a d’ailleurs constaté que « les entreprises rurales utilisent trois fois
moins les réseaux sociaux à vocation professionnelle comme Viadéo, Linkedin ou Twitter, et
privilégient Facebook. »
Type de
PME/
webConféren
ce ou
VisioConféren
ce
Internatio
nale
Zone Rurale
chi2 =20,075 ddl=1, p=0 ,0001
chi2 = 8,036 a, ddl = 1, p=0.005
Nb
%
Nb
%
Tota Nb.
%
Nb.
%
Total
.
.
l
Cit.
Cit.
Lyon
Cit
Cit
Rura Oui
Non
.
.
l
Ou
No
i
n
51,85%
22,83% 107
45,28
25,91%
24
64
88
%
28
26,17%
79
73,83%
100
%
27,27
72,73%
100%
72,47%
207
86,47%
100%
1,69%
5
100%
300
%
Nationale,
Régionale
, locale
48,15%
77,17%
293
28
52,83
179
%
26
8,87%
26
7
91,13%
100
%
13,53
%
Non
réponse
0
54
0
100 %
0
35
7
0
100 %
0
400
1
1,56%
4
100%
a. 0 cellules (0%) ont un effectif théorique inférieur à 5. L'effectif théorique minimum est de 15,51.
b. 0 cellules (0%) ont un effectif théorique inférieur à 5. L'effectif théorique minimum est de 14,45
Tableau 10 : type de PME / Visioconférence
73
La question du travail collaboratif reste posée
Enfin, nous avons voulu savoir si ces entreprises internationales travaillent de manière étendue avec
des collaborateurs du monde entier. Elles seraient donc susceptibles d’utiliser davantage d’outils de
travail collaboratif. Aussi nous avons mené différents tests de dépendance entre la variable « type de
PME » et « outil de travail collaboratif ». Mais là les dépendances ne sont pas significatives (chi2 =
0.831, ddl=1, p =0,362) pour les zones urbaines ou périurbaines. Il en est de même pour les zones
rurales (chi2=5.614, ddl=1, p=0.18). Ce dernier test renforcerait l’hypothèse de l’existence de PME
Internationales travaillant avec un faible taux d’utilisation d’outils collaboratifs. Donc il semble
difficile de dire que les PME Internationales utilisent vraiment plus les outils de travail collaboratif de
type groupware autre que le courrier électronique, dans ces zones urbaines et périurbaines. Comme
exemple d’outils de travail collaboratif, nous pouvons citer Lotus Note/Domino, Oracle
Communications, Contact Office, OpenGroupware, Open-Xchange, Google Documents, etc. Dans
l’enquête qualitative, un dirigeant nous explique qu’ « il aimerait utiliser des outils collaboratifs. Il est
parfois amené à collaborer sur plusieurs modules (Afrique, Maroc, Allemagne) avec des free-lances. Il
collabore avec une boîte en Afrique de Sud qui fait des thèmes (templates) payants […], il en est le
traducteur universel. Il a accès aux thèmes gratuitement. Pas de factures, pas de contrats mais c'est
donnant-donnant. »
Zone Rurale
Type de
b
chi2 =5,614 , ddl=1, p=0.18
chi2 = 0.831 a, ddl = 1, p=0,362
PME/
groupwar Nb
%
Nb
%
Tota Nb.
%
Nb.
%
Total
e
.
.
l
Cit.
Cit.
Lyon
Cit
Cit
Rura Oui
Non
.
.
l
Ou
No
i
n
Internatio
34,78
28,35%
18 41,86% 89 24,93% 107
16
72
88
nale
%
16,82%
83,18%
100
%
18,18
81,82%
100%
70,08%
207
85,99%
100%
%
Nationale,
Régionale
, locale
25
58,14%
26
8
75,07%
293
29
63,04
178
%
8,53%
91,47%
100
%
14,01
%
Non
réponse
0
43
0
100 %
0
35
7
0
100 %
0
1
2,17%
4
1,57%
5
400
46
100%
254
100%
300
a. 0 cellules (0%) ont un effectif théorique inférieur à 5. L'effectif théorique minimum est de 13,42
Tableau 11 : Type de PME/ Groupware
74
Enfin notre deuxième partie d’hypothèse postule que les « petites et moyennes entreprises à vocation
internationale situées dans des territoires ruraux, périurbains, urbains, investissent plus en termes de
e-commerce, que les petites et moyennes entreprises à vocation locale, régionale ou nationale ». Pour
le e-commerce, les données qualitatives recueillies dans les zones rurales ne nous permettent pas de
trancher. En revanche, avec les données quantitatives, le lien de dépendance entre la vocation de
l’entreprise et l’e-commerce est très significatif pour les zones rurales (chi2 = 13,67, dll=1, p=0,0001).
Les deux variables sont donc bien dépendantes pour la zone rurale. Pour les PME Internationales
situées dans les zones urbaines ou périurbaines, la relation entre les deux variables n’est pas
significative (chi2=2.359, dll=1, p=0,125). Cependant il est difficile de conclure car l’effectif des
entreprises internationales urbaines ayant répondu positivement est faible (9 réponses).
Zone Rurale
Type de
chi2 =13,677 ddl=1, p=0,0001
chi2 = 2,359 a, ddl = 1, p=0,125
PME/ ecommerc Nb
%
Nb
%
Tota Nb.
%
Nb.
%
Total
e
.
.
l
Cit.
Cit.
Lyon
Cit
Cit
Rura Oui
Non
.
.
l
Ou
No
i
n
Internatio
42,86
28,32%
19 52,78% 88 24,18% 107
9
79
88
nale
%
17,76%
82,24%
100
%
10,23
89,77%
100%
70,25%
207
94,69%
100%
%
Nationale,
Régionale
, locale
17
47,22%
27
6
293
11
52,38
196
%
5,80%
Non
réponse
75,82%
0
36
0
100 %
0
36
4
94,20%
100
%
0
0
0
0
5
1,79%
5
400
20
100%
280
100%
300
100 %
5,31%
a. 0 cellules (0%) ont un effectif théorique inférieur à 5. L'effectif théorique minimum est de 5,97
Tableau 12 : tableau croisé (Type de PME / e-commerce)
Concernant les zones rurales, nous avons voulu aussi croiser le type de PME et le e-commerce (voir
tableau ci-dessous). Là le nombre d’entreprises réalisant du e-commerce est faible en milieu rural (67
sur 400). L’effet de levier du e-commerce est cependant intéressant et permet de lever toute ambigüité
quant à son intérêt pour les PME Internationales qui peuvent voir leur chiffre d’affaire bien augmenter.
A partir de l’étude qualitative, nous avons pu observer quelques atouts pour les PME qui veulent se
développer à l’international.
75
géographie clients/Ventes Ecommerce
local
régional
national
européen
mondial
TOTAL
Non
réponse
6
7
17
12
13
55
Moins de
10
1
0
2
2
1
6
De 10 à
20
1
1
1
0
1
4
De 20 à
60
0
0
0
0
0
0
60 et
plus
0
0
3
3
2
8
TOTAL
8
8
23
17
17
73
Tableau 13 : Pourcentage des ventes effectuées en e-commerce
Discussion:
Notre papier s’intéresse à la façon dont les PME utilisent les TIC pour s’internationaliser. Les TIC leur
permettent de réduire les distances vis-à-vis de leurs clients et de leurs prestataires. Si les TIC ne
remplacent pas les rencontres physiques, elles permettent cependant d’accélérer et de fiabiliser les
conventions à passer entre partenaires. Il est à remarquer que les TIC sont particulièrement pertinents
pour les entreprises installées en zone rurale (pour certaines très enclavées) et pour la dimension
échange d’informations et prestations de services.
Notre hypothèse d’utilisation plus avancée des TICs par les PME enclavées ayant une ambition
internationale est vérifiée sur notre échantillon (cf. tableau 8). Si l’on compare entreprises de zone
rurale et de zone urbaine, il est à noter que dans chaque sous-population, un tiers déclare avoir une
clientèle internationale.
Le débat est ouvert sur la corrélation versus la causalité. Nous observons qu’une entreprise est plus
souvent internationale quand elle a un site Web. Mais est-ce le site Web qui donne une visibilité et
donc un potentiel international à cette entreprise ou bien l’ambition internationale qui nécessite de
passer par la conception et l’installation d’un site Web.
En outre, les technologies évoluant très vite, il serait intéressant de poursuivre l’investigation par une
phase qualitative approfondie et longitudinale pour tracer les évolutions des stratégies Web, Web 2.0,
Réseaux Sociaux (Facebook, Twitter, …) et mobiles.
Autre apport de notre étude (cf. tableau 9) : Il existe une relation entre le fait d’organiser des
conférences téléphoniques et le caractère international de la PME. De la même façon, la
visioconférence est au cœur des entreprises internationales (cf. tableau 10). Une étude plus poussée
serait nécessaire sur le type de réseaux sociaux utilisés par les entreprises internationales. À noter que
la notion d’entreprise internationale dans notre travail n’est pas exempte d’ambiguïté, dans la mesure
où elle est basée sur du déclaratif.
Quant au travail collaboratif, sa question reste posée. En effet, les dépendances sont ici peu
significatives.
Nous avons lu que l’internationalisation est perçue comme un processus et que l’effet-réseau y est non
négligeable. La PME s’appuie sur cet effet-réseau pour compenser son handicap de taille dans la
compétition internationale. Si les séquences du modèle Uppsala ne sont pas flagrantes sur notre
échantillon, nous observons surtout le jeu subtil entre le local et le global, à travers l’appartenance à
des partenariats locaux (à travers des télécentres, par exemple) d’une part, et l’encastrement dans des
réseaux internationaux de type dyadique (couple fournisseur-entreprise et/ou entreprise/client final).
Les limites de notre travail concernent en particulier le manque de profondeur et de précision des
informations. À titre d'exemple, nous proposons de prolonger le travail sur les sites Web afin de
distinguer entre sites-vitrines et site de type transactionnel. Ce sera la mission d’un prolongement de
recherche.
76
Conclusion
Cette analyse est très encourageante et montre l’intérêt d’une étude approfondie et plus larges sur les
PME à vocation internationale qui sont situées sur des zones rurales, loin des grandes agglomérations,
et les comparer à des zones urbaines ou périurbaines, mieux desservies en termes de services et de
réseaux. Nos hypothèses n’ont pu toutes être démontrées, mais cela nous a ouvert de nouvelles
perspectives de recherche. Il semble toutefois indéniable qu’il existe une relation significative entre les
PME à vocation internationale et le développement des sites d'e-commerce. Cette courte analyse nous
a permis de démontrer la spécificité managériale des PME à vocation internationale, notamment en
termes de gestion des technologies de l’information et de la communication, à travers l’étude que nous
avons menée au cours du projet DISCOTEC. Nous pourrons étendre nos recherches à d’autres pays
européens, notamment en République Tchèque.
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Bocconi, Milano
STOCK MARKETS INTEGRATION
AMONG THE NEW MEMBER STATES AND THE EURO AREA12
Mgr. Ing. Jiří CHALOUPKA
University of Economics, Prague
[email protected]
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to quantify the degree to which stock markets of new member
states are integrated with the markets of the euro area and to examine the evolution of the integration
process during the period 2000–2011. For this purpose, the methods used by the Czech National Bank
were utilized. The price-based measures, which analyze the synchronization of stock market trends,
show that before the crisis the correlation coefficients gradually grew and the standard deviation was
relatively low which indicates an ongoing process of convergence of the stock markets. After
September 2008, however, the correlation coefficients increased even sharply but the cross-country
standard deviation also grew which can be explained by an external shock that affected both NMS and
euro area stock markets but each of the markets in a different way. The news-based measures, which
examine the response of asset prices in individual countries to common factors, also indicate a
convergence process before the crisis, but the results are not statistically significant. According to
these measures, during the financial crisis and the following period the stock markets of new member
states were more sensitive to news common to euro area market. Even though, these results are
statistically significant, the model seems to be inappropriate to measure the state of integration.
Key words: Stock Market, Financial Integration, Regression Analysis
JEL Classification: F36, G01, G15
1. Introduction
The process of globalization is characterised by integration of national financial markets into one
global market. According to economic theory, financial markets are fully integrated if market
participants with the same relevant characteristics face a single set of rules when they decide to deal
with financial instruments. As a result, the law of one price should hold on fully integrated financial
markets.
Financial account liberalization, legislative harmonization, market structure consolidation and
technical innovations are the main drivers of financial integration reduce costs associated with crossborder investment and thus investors from one country can easily buy assets in other countries.
Consequently, investors can choose from a wider range of financial assets and can diversify their
portfolios more effectively. After removal of barriers for international capital flows, the only factor
that should determine investment decisions is the risk-free return. Due to the international arbitrage,
the price of capital should then become equal all over the integrated markets. This effect leads to better
allocation of capital among countries and thus, companies have access to more capital which enables
economic growth.13
12
This paper was written as a part of a research project IGS F2/5/2011 Importance of Financial Markets for International
Business in a Globalized World Economy.
13
For comprehensive overview of expected positive and negative effects, see:
AGÉNOR, P. R.: Benefits and Costs of International Financial Integration: Theory and Facts.
Washington: World Bank, 2001. [on-line]. [Accessed 2011-04-25]. Available at:
80
The international movement of capital, however, leads to synchronisation of stock market trends
because national stock markets get affected more by news common to the whole global economy.
Therefore, the risk premiums of national markets converge and global risk factors become more
important than local risk factors. This leads to negative side-effect of the integration in the form of
financial contagion, i.e. the transmission of negative shocks from one economy to other previously
healthy economies. An example of financial contagion was apparent during the recent financial crisis
and the following sovereign debt crisis which suggests a high degree of financial integration.
Financial contagion affects the stability of the whole financial system which is of great importance for
central banks. Hence, both the European Central Bank and the Czech National Bank (hereinafter
referred to as CNB) regularly measure the degree to which financial markets are integrated. Due to the
ongoing process of convergence of new member states (hereinafter referred to as NMS) to euro area, it
is important to examine the degree to which their stock markets are sensitive to news from euro area
stock markets and to which trends of these markets are synchronized.
This paper examines the degree to which stock markets of the NMS are integrated with the euro area
stock markets and analyzes the process of integration during the period of January 2000 – April 2011
utilizing the methods used by the CNB.
2. Methodology
Methods for measuring the financial integration used by the ECB and the CNB are based on previous
research papers, notably Adam et al. (2002), Adjaouté and Danthine (2003) and Baele et al. (2004)
which used various methods to measure the degree of integration.14 Methods used by these authors can
be divided into three groups – price-based, news-based and quantitative-based measures. In this paper,
the price-based and news-based measures that the CNB uses are adopted.
Price-based measures are based on the law of one price, which as mentioned above, should hold in
fully integrated financial markets. However, it is difficult to simply compare prices of various stocks
due to their different cash flows and risk characteristics. Rates of return on stock market indices are
therefore used and not the levels but the co-movements of these rates are compared. As the integration
grows, the synchronisation should rise.
The simplest way to examine the degree of stock market co-movements is to measure the correlation
between rates of returns of two indices. The higher the correlation coefficient between national market
and the benchmark market is, the higher the degree of integration is. However, the economic
interpretation of this measurement is questionable, since market returns may covary as the markets are
hit by the same shock. Since EU is undergoing the process of real convergence and political
integration, growing correlation coefficients may rather reflect these factors than increasing financial
integration.
For this reason it is useful to interpret results of correlation analysis with consideration to a crosscountry standard deviation of stock returns. The cross-country standard deviation is expressed by the
following formula:
http://wwwwds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2001/11/28/000094946_01111404010072/Rendered/
PDF/multi0page.pdf.
14
ADAM, K., JAPELLI, T., MENICHINI, A., PADULA, M., PAGANO, M.: Study to Analyze, Compare, and Apply
Alternative Indicators and Monitoring Methodologies to Measure the Evolution of Capital Market Integration in the
European Union. [on-line]. Salerno: CSEF, 2002. [Accessed 2011-02-25].
Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/economic-reports/docs/020128_cap_mark_int_en.pdf.
BAELE, L., FERRANDO, A., HÖRDAHL, P., KRYLOVA, E., MONNET, C.: Measuring Financial Integration in the
Euro Area. Frankfurt am Main: European Central Bank, 2004. [on-line]. [Accessed 2011-01-03]. Available at:
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp14.pdf.
ADJOUTÉ, K., DANTHINE, J.: European Financial Integration and Equity Returns: A Theory-Based Assessment.
Frankfurt am Main: European Central Bank, 2003. [on-line]. [Accessed 2011-04-25].
Available at: http://www.ecb.int/events/pdf/conferences/danthine_comp.pdf.
81
,
(E1)
where denotes the cross-country standard deviation at the time t,
is the return on national index
of the particular country c at the time t, denotes the mean of the data set at the time t and N is the
number of countries in the data set. This method measures the degree of integration for the whole
market. The less the is, the higher degree of integration has been reached.
News-based measures are based on the assumption that asset prices should only react to news common
to the whole market because local shocks can be easily diversified by investing in assets from other
countries and therefore do not constitute a systematic risk. The news-based measures, therefore,
measure the proportion of asset price changes that can be explained by common news. Changes in the
price of a benchmark asset serve as a proxy for the common news. These changes should therefore
explain the changes in asset prices in national markets.
To measure this relation, the CNB uses the following regression equation:
,
(E2)
where
represents a change in the price of asset for the country c at the time t,
is the change
in the price of the benchmark asset at the time t,
is a constant and
represents a specific shock
for the country c at the time t. In a fully integrated financial market, a)
should equal to 0, b)
should equal to 1 and c) a proportion of variance
should also equal to 1. If values
are higher than 1 then the prices of local assets react stronger to the common
of the coefficient
news than the prices of the benchmark assets. If the value of
is negative, then the response of the
15
price of the local asset is inverse.
All these methods are used by the CNB16 to measure the financial integration among Central European
countries. However, in this paper the integration is examined among larger sample of countries,
namely Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria
and Romania. Contrary to the Czech National Bank, all the results presented in this paper include pvalues, F-statistics and coefficients of determination in order to test significance of these results.
To measure the integration, it is necessary to choose appropriate benchmark portfolio that can reflect
changes in all asset prices in a particular stock market. As benchmark portfolios for local stock
markets, the national stock indices were chosen17 and as a benchmark portfolio for the euro area stock
market, the Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 index is used. As global markets are predominantly affected
by changes in U.S. stock market, the S&P 500 index was chosen to serve as a proxy for the global
stock market. In this paper, weekly data were used because they partially enable to solve the problem
of time lags and time series incompleteness. All the data were collected from the databases of Reuters
and Patria. The problem, however, was that data for Bulgaria in these databases start in October 2000,
for Slovenia, they end in June 2010 and for Malta and Cyprus, they are so short and incomplete that
these two countries were not included in analyses.
Before starting with the measurements, the returns of stock market indices should be first tested for
non-stationarity. Because stock market indices are time series data, there is a risk of spurious
regression when applying the models. Even though, the models use rates of return on indices, i.e. the
15
BAELE, L., FERRANDO, A., HÖRDAHL, P., KRYLOVA, E., MONNET, C.: Measuring Financial Integration in the
Euro Area. Frankfurt am Main: European Central Bank, 2004. [on-line]. [Accessed 2011-01-03]. Available at:
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp14.pdf. p. 19.
16
BABECKÝ, J., KOMÁREK, L., KOMÁRKOVÁ, Z.: Finanční integrace v době finanční (ne)stability. [on-line]. Praha:
CNB, 2010. [Accessed 2011-02-28]. Available at:
http://www.cnb.cz/miranda2/export/sites/www.cnb.cz/cs/financni_stabilita/zpravy_fs/FS_2009-2010/FS_20092010_clanek_II.pdf.
17
For the new member states the following indices were used: PX index for the Czech Republic (CZ), SAX index for
Slovakia (SK), WIG index for Poland (PL), SBI index for Slovenia (SL), BET index for Romania (RO), SOFIX index for
Bulgaria (BG), OMX Tallinn index for Estonia (EE), OMX Riga index for Latvia (LV) and OMX Vilnius index for
Lithuania (LT).
82
relative differences between the levels of indices, they still can contain a unit root. In this paper, the
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test is applied in order to test the hypothesis that a particular time series has
a unit root. Akaike Information Criterion was used to determine the number of lags. Table 1 presents
the results of ADF tests.
Table 1: ADF test statistics for the rates of return on NMS stock market indices for the period of 2000–
2011.
US EU CZ SK
PL
HU
SL BG
RO
EE LV LT
ADF test
statistics
-9.05 -9.15 -9.41 -12.39 -9.47 -11.21 -4.79 -10.05 -11.99 -8.10 -6.89 -8.96
Source: Author's calculations using latest data from Reuters and Patria.
The critical value for all the tested time series is -3.97 for the 1 % significance level. Because the ADF
test statistics are lower for all the time series, the null hypothesis that the unit root exists can be
rejected in all cases. The Durbin-Watson statistics range from 1.99 to 2.01 for the whole dataset, which
means that the results are reliable as the problem of autocorrelation does not exist. Therefore, the time
series are stationary at 1 % significance level and the regression analysis can be applied.
3. Price-based measures
During the examined period, the returns on stock market indices of NMS followed similar trend as the
stock market of the euro area. Chart 1 shows the evolution of the returns that were smoothed by the
Hodrick-Prescott filter (λ = 270,400) to highlight the trend.
Chart 1: Returns of the NMS stock market indices during 2000–2011.
Stock markets of both the NMS and euro area were hit by the burst of the internet bubble in 2000.
However, the NMS markets recovered from the down-turn faster than the market of euro area which
continued to decline till March 2002. Returns on NMS indices generally rose during 2001–2003 but
the rise varied substantially among the NMS. This suggests divergence of the NMS markets not only
from the euro area market but also among these countries during this period. Over the period 2003–
2007, however, the differences in returns gradually diminished, from which the converging trend can
be inferred.
In September 2008, all the stock markets were hit by the fall of Lehman Brothers, large American
investment bank. However, the fall in stock market returns differed among the NMS. Bulgaria,
83
Romania and the Baltic states faced a more severe downturn than the Central European countries.
In mid-2009, the trend changed into the bull market and the rates of return increased. However, in the
beginning of 2010 the bear trend prevailed again as a result of Greek fiscal problems.
It is apparent from Chart 1 that the trend of Slovak market differs from the trend of other markets over
the examined period. This is because the Slovak market is highly illiquid.
Chart 2 shows that during the period 12/2004–4/2011 the correlation coefficients between NMS index
returns and euro area index return differed substantially among the NMS. The Czech Republic,
Hungary and Poland were countries with the highest correlation coefficients during the whole period.
On the contrary, Slovak and Latvian markets reported the lowest correlation coefficients with the euro
area market.
Before the beginning of financial crisis in September 2008, correlation coefficients of the majority of
NMS gradually grew. However, correlation coefficients of Bulgaria, Estonia and Lithuania declined.
In this period, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia and Latvia were the markets with the lowest
correlation coefficients, ranging from -0.08 to 0.37.
In September 2008, the correlation coefficients of all markets increased substantially. The biggest
jump was observed in Romanian, Bulgarian and Latvian market. The highest correlation, however,
was reached by the Czech market at the level of 0.78. Except for Slovakia and Latvia, correlation
coefficients for all NMS exceeded the level of 0.40.
It seems that during the financial crisis and the subsequent period the integration of NMS stock
markets to euro area increased. Movements of the Czech, Polish, Hungarian and Romanian markets
were and still are highly correlated with the movement of euro area market. However, to draw definite
conclusion more factors must be taken into account.
84
Chart 2: Rolling correlation coefficients between NMS index returns and the euro area index return
during 2005–2011.
Source: Author's calculations using latest data from Reuters and Patria. The rolling window was set for five years, i.e. 260
weeks. All coefficients are significant at least at 5 % level.
Chart 3: Rolling correlation coefficients between NMS index returns and the US index return during
2005–2011.
weeks. All coefficients are significant at least at 5 % level.
85
Looking at the correlation coefficient of US market, it is apparent that the correlation between
American and European market is high. Consequently, the evolution of correlation coefficients of
NMS stock markets with the US market was analogical as shown on Chart 3. Cross-country standard
deviation of market returns on national stock markets (sometimes called the sigma-convergence)
presented on Chart 4 is considered to express the overall degree of stock market integration. The lower
the standard deviation, the higher the degree of integration is. Till June 2001, the standard deviation
increased and since then decreased. The downward trend persisted until June 2006 and then remained
relatively low (with minor exception in the year 2005) until January 2007 when there was a radical
increase in standard deviation that lasted till January 2009. These results imply that during the periods
of economic growth, the stock markets converged to the euro area, but during the periods of economic
down-turn the NMS markets started to diverge.
Chart 4: Cross-country standard deviation for the NMS and euro area index returns during 2000–2011.
Source: Author's calculations using latest data from Reuters and Patria. The data were smoothed by the Hodrick-Prescott
filter (λ = 270,400).
To draw a conclusion, during 2001–2007 the correlation coefficients increased, which means that the
movements of NMS indices returns were more and more strongly linked, and the standard deviation
decreased, which implies that the returns moved more and more closely to each other. During this
period the stock markets of NMS witnessed the ongoing process of integration to euro area stock
market. On the other hand, when comparing the evolution of correlation coefficients and the crosscountry standard deviation for the period of 2007–2009, the data seem to give contradictory results.
During the period of financial crisis, the correlation coefficients increased substantially but the
standard deviation also grew dramatically. The possible explanation of this phenomenon is that the
markets of NMS were hit by the same shock and thus their indices moved in the same direction.
However, the fall in returns differed among the NMS. It can be seen on Chart 1 that, even though there
was a fall in returns in all NMS, the fall in Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic states was more severe
than in the Central European countries.
4. News-based measures
News-based measures, as mentioned above, examine the degree to which the returns of particular
national stock indices are influenced by common news, i.e. the news from euro area. Coefficient
gamma from the regression equation (E2) indicates the percentage change of the movements of
national stock indices that can be explained by the movements of the euro area stock index. Chart 5
presents the evolution of rolling gamma-coefficients for the NMS over the period of December 2004 –
April 2011. If the coefficient equals to one, the market is fully integrated.
86
Chart 5: Rolling gamma-coefficients for the NMS over the period of 12/2004–04/2011.
weeks.
Until mid-2006, the gamma-coefficients were relatively low; the highest coefficient did not exceed
0.55. However, for this period, the NMS can be divided into two groups – the Czech Republic,
Hungary, Poland and Estonia, which were countries with gamma-coefficients higher than 0.3, and the
other NMS (not including Lithuania), which showed gamma-coefficients below 0.15. Coefficients for
Estonia and Lithuania were even declining which implies that these stock markets were diverging from
euro area. Moreover, the reactions of Bulgarian market to common news were reversal to the reactions
of euro area stock markets, which lasted until January 2008. This period was characterised by
economic growth in all NMS that was higher than the growth in euro area. Therefore, one possible
explanation of low gamma-coefficients could be that the NMS stock markets were growing faster than
euro area markets due to the higher economic growth of these countries. However, other important
factors have to be considered such as the low depth, liquidity and the overall development of these
stock markets.
Since mid-2006, the gamma-coefficients of all NMS stock markets, except for Estonia, Lithuania and
Slovakia, gradually rose and in September 2008 the gamma-coefficients jumped up for all NMS. The
increase between 2006 and 2008 was especially significant for Romania and Bulgaria. The gammacoefficient for Romania changed from 0.15 in October 2006 to 0.93 in October 2008 and for Bulgaria
from -0.11 in October 2006 to 0.84 in October 2008. Rapidly growing coefficients should indicate fast
convergence of NMS stock markets to euro area.
During the period following the fall of Lehmann Brothers in September 2008, gamma-coefficients for
all NMS (except for Poland) remained at higher level than before the downturn. Gamma-coefficients
for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania remained the highest. Coefficients for these countries
did not fall below 0.75 and gamma-coefficient for the Czech Republic reached the level of 0.99. The
rise in gamma-coefficients indicates relatively high degree of integration of these markets to the euro
area. However, alternative explanation of high sensitivity of Hungarian and Romanian markets is the
fact that both these countries received financial help from the IMF. On the contrary, gammacoefficients for Slovenia, Slovakia and Baltic countries remained under 0.5. These relatively low levels
imply that local events were more important for these markets than news common to euro area, which
suggest a low degree of integration. Low level of gamma-coefficient for Slovak market can be
explained by the relatively low market depth and liquidity.
87
To draw a final conclusion it is necessary to consider statistical significance of gamma-coefficients,
coefficients of determination, which indicate the proportion of variability in a data set that is accounted
for by the statistical model, and the overall F-test statistic, which is used as a test of the significance of
the model. The outcomes of OLS regression are shown in Tables 2. The table contains data only for
three overlapping periods.
Looking at the table, it is apparent that gamma-coefficients for the majority of NMS were not
statistically significant for the period 2000–2004. Gamma-coefficients only for the Czech Republic,
Hungary, Poland, Estonia and Lithuania were statistically significant. Even though, results of the
overall F-test proved the dependency of these countries’ returns on euro area returns, coefficients of
determination remained under 0.24, which is very low. These results suggest that the model used by
CNB fails to accurately model the relation between NMS and euro area returns and can explain only a
small part of the variability of the data set.
On the contrary, gamma-coefficients for the other two periods are statistically significant at 1 % level
for most of the NMS. The coefficients of determination, however, remained low and only for the
Czech Republic the coefficient exceeded the level of 0.5, which is still very low. This implies that for
most of the countries the model still cannot explain more than 50 % of variability in the data set and
the regression line does not approximate the real data points well. Comparing the periods 2003–2007
and 2006–2011, the coefficients of determination for all the examined countries are higher for the
later. Hence, it seems that over the time the accuracy of the model increases. One possible explanation
could be that the ongoing process of convergence causes that the relation between NMS and euro area
returns start to match the regression equation. However, to make such a conclusion, more research
needs to be done and alternative models should be tested.
To conclude, the results of news-based measurements indicate that at the beginning of the examined
period, the integration of NMS stock markets was relatively low but after the year 2006 and especially
after the fall of Lehman Brothers, the level of integration increased. However, this interpretation can
be proved only for the Czech Republic as coefficients of determination and statistical significance of
gamma-coefficients remained low for the other countries. It can be inferred from the results that the
model used by CNB does not model the dataset accurately and therefore, cannot measure the degree of
integration properly.
88
Table 2: OLS regression for NMS.
CZ
SK
PL
HU
SL
BG
RO
EE
LV
LT
2000–2004
2003–2007
2006–2011
Intercept
0.1515
**
0.1201
**
0.0112
Gamma
0.3608
***
0.6992
***
0.9410
R-squared
0.1571
F-statistic
48.2632
***
117.6170
Intercept
0.0015
***
0.0123
-0.1181
*
Gamma
-0.0003
0.0014
0.0856
*
R-squared
0.0036
0.0000
0.0130
0.3123
0.6087
***
401.3540
F-statistic
0.9302
0.0010
Intercept
0.0953
0.1329
**
0.6820
Gamma
0.4533
0.7487
***
0.6845
R-squared
0.2197
F-statistic
72.9251
Intercept
0.1199
*
0.1226
*
0.0471
Gamma
0.4936
***
0.7127
***
0.9229
R-squared
0.2373
F-statistic
80.5702
Intercept
0.1714
Gamma
***
3.4118
0.3035
***
112.8475
***
226.1170
***
326.5884
0.1690
***
-0.0246
0.0510
0.1315
**
0.4875
R-squared
0.0079
0.0079
F-statistic
2.0573
5.9013
**
94.5898
Intercept
0.3631
0.2981
***
-0.0784
Gamma
-0.0513
0.0375
0.5607
R-squared
0.0357
0.0250
0.4566
***
*
***
***
*
0.5568
77.0992
***
***
0.4651
0.2294
*
***
*
***
0.3065
***
***
F-statistic
0.2760
***
0.1614
***
68.4836
Intercept
0.3772
***
0.1961
**
0.0214
Gamma
-0.0233
0.4223
***
0.8886
R-squared
0.0004
0.0013
F-statistic
0.0962
17.3602
***
169.7007
Intercept
0.2234
***
0.1585
***
0.0402
Gamma
0.4223
***
0.3638
***
0.4564
R-squared
0.2166
F-statistic
71.0604
***
27.6618
***
51.2999
***
Intercept
0.2199
**
0.1500
**
-0.0487
*
Gamma
0.0586
0.1319
*
0.2927
R-squared
0.0019
0.0133
F-statistic
0.4979
3.4809
*
Intercept
0.1813
***
0.2576
***
0.0058
Gamma
0.1877
***
0.1993
***
0.4704
R-squared
0.0620
***
0.3949
0.0965
0.0255
***
***
***
0.1648
***
0.0904
25.8323
***
***
0.1945
F-statistic
16.9870 ***
6.7809 ***
62.7851 ***
Note: The symbols ***, ** and * indicate statistical significance at 1 %, 5 % and 10 % levels, respectively.
89
5. Conclusion
Both price-based and news-based measures indicate that over the past decade, stock markets of NMS
gradually integrated with the stock market of euro area. However, the measurements do not give
unambiguous results and more research needs to be done to confirm these results.
According to price-based measures, the correlation between NMS and euro area stock market returns
gradually grew over the period 2000–2011. The biggest jump in correlation occurred after the fall of
Lehman Brothers in September 2008. These results imply that the relationship between NMS and euro
area stock market returns became stronger over time and especially after the outbreak of the financial
crisis. However, the evolution of cross-country standard deviation indicates that the returns moved
closer to each other during the period of economic growth than during times of crises. To sum up,
before the crisis the correlation coefficients gradually grew and the standard deviation was relatively
low which indicates a process of convergence of NMS stock markets to euro area market. On the other
hand, after September 2008 the correlation coefficients increased substantially but the standard
deviation also grew rapidly. This can be explained by an external shock that affected both NMS and
euro area stock markets but each country in a different way. As a result, the stock markets diverged
during the financial crisis.
The news-based measurements indicate that the integration of NMS stock markets was relatively low
at the beginning of the examined period but that after the year 2006 and especially after the fall of
Lehman Brothers, the reactions of NMS stock markets to news common to both NMS and euro area
became stronger. This suggests increasing integration of NMS markets with euro area markets.
However, the coefficients of determination remain low indicating that the model can explain only a
small part of the variability in the dataset. Even though, the coefficients of determination grow and the
overall F-test proved dependence of NMS stock market movements on changes in euro area stock
market, the regression equation that the CNB uses does not model the data well. Therefore, it is not
appropriate to draw any definite conclusion from these measurements.
Comparing the results of price-based and news-based measures, the conclusion is that at the beginning
of the examined period the integration of stock markets was not high. However, since the beginning of
2006 the level of integration gradually increased as the movements of NMS stock market indices were
more synchronized with the euro area and became more sensitive to news common to euro area. The
process of integration was then significantly affected by the outbreak of financial crisis in September
2008 as both the NMS and the euro area stock markets were hit by the downturn. Investors were
gripped by panic and started selling their stocks to avert further loss. This panic affected all stock
markets and the markets became more sensitive to common news. However, the impact for individual
countries was substantially different and led to divergence of the markets. The degree of integration
across the countries was different for the whole examined period. According to the results, the most
integrated markets were those of the Czech Republic and Hungary and the least integrated were the
markets of Slovakia and Baltic countries.
The outcome of the integration is that the performances of national markets are more and more
synchronized and when the crisis breaks out all the markets get hit. The more the stock markets
integrated are, the more easily the financial contagion can spread over these markets. Therefore,
investors cannot effectively diversify their portfolio among integrated markets to minimize the risk.
However, during the recent financial crisis the impact on individual countries was different and the
cross-country standard deviation for market returns increased. This gives the investors possibility to
partially minimize the risk as local factors become more important for the markets.
In order to make more precise conclusion on the state of stock market integration, it is necessary to
apply more appropriate model in further research. The linear regression equation the CNB utilizes does
not consider some important factors. As equity markets are significantly affected not just by regional
news, but also by global ones, the model should distinguish between global and euro area effects on
equity returns in NMS. This distinction is important because both the NMS and the euro area stock
90
markets can be integrated with the US market without being integrated with each other. The change in
US stock market could then affect both NMS and euro area markets and the gamma-coefficient would
indicate high level of integration, even though the integration stays low. The fall of Lehman Brothers
might have been such a case.
References
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
ADAM, K., JAPELLI, T., MENICHINI, A., PADULA, M., PAGANO, M.: Study to Analyze, Compare, and Apply Alternative Indicators and Monitoring Methodologies to Measure the Evolution of Capital Market Integration in the European Union. [on‐line]. Salerno: CSEF, 2002. [Accessed 2011‐04‐25]. Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/economic‐reports/docs/020128_cap_mark_int_en.pdf. ADJOUTÉ, K., DANTHINE, J.: European Financial Integration and Equity Returns: A Theory‐Based Assessment. Frankfurt am Main: European Central Bank, 2003. [on‐line]. [Accessed 2011‐
04‐25]. Available at: http://www.ecb.int/events/pdf/conferences/danthine_comp.pdf. AGÉNOR, P. R.: Benefits and Costs of International Financial Integration: Theory and Facts. Washington: World Bank, 2001. [on‐line]. [Accessed 2011‐04‐25]. Available at: http://www‐
wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2001/11/28/000094946_01111404010072/Ren
dered/PDF/multi0page.pdf. BABECKÝ, J., KOMÁREK, L., KOMÁRKOVÁ, Z.: Finanční integrace v době finanční (ne)stability. [on‐line]. Prague: CNB, 2010. [Accessed 2011‐04‐25]. Available at: http://www.cnb.cz/miranda2/export/sites/www.cnb.cz/cs/financni_stabilita/zpravy_fs/FS_2009‐
2010/FS_2009‐2010_clanek_II.pdf. BAELE, L., FERRANDO, A., HÖRDAHL, P., KRYLOVA, E., MONNET, C.: Measuring Financial Integration in the Euro Area. Frankfurt am Main: European Central Bank, 2004. [on‐line]. [Accessed 2011‐04‐25]. Available at: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp14.pdf. ECB: Financial Integration in Europe. [on-line]. Frankfurt am Main: ECB, 2010. [Accessed 2011-0425]. Available at: http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/other/financialintegrationineurope201004en.pdf
91
THE RISING IMPORTANCE OF CURRENCY RISK
MANAGEMENT, THE RISK MOST OF THE CZECH
ENTREPRENEURS ARE FACING IN THEIR INTERNATIONAL
TRADING18
Ing. Klára KOUKALOVÁ
Department of International Trade, University of economics, Prague
[email protected]
Introduction
The company´s management faces plenty of risks while doing business. The fading financial crises
meant aggressive pressure to costs diminishing in all aspects of business activities. The new approach
to systematic risk management brings more professional handling of all financial risks, especially the
currency risk.
This paper deals with the growing importance of currency risk management in business units of any
size. After classification of financial risks and specification of the three currency risk´s categories I
will discuss the importance of the monitoring and management of the exchange rates in the companies
undertaking their business in the economy sizes Czech Republic. There are lots of tradable currencies
used in the international trade, but for Czech entrepreneurs just some of them need to be managed. Due
to the territorial structure of the Czech foreign trade I will discuss the major currencies used in the
international conversions of Czech companies. Further I will present the volatility of exchange rates
and their progress during current financial crises. In fine I will present the basic elements of currency
risk management.
Currency risk
The risk “arises from an uncertainty related to what might happen in the future.”19It doesn´t depend on
whether the change in our subjective prediction of future matters involves us positively or negatively,
in both cases we are undergoing risk. The classification of financial risks is not unified, the risks are
often closely connected to each other and therefore it is difficult to set borders between them. During
the international activities, the companies have to handle especially the following risks:
−
“market risks, −
commercial risks, −
transport risks, −
territorial risks, −
currency risks, −
responsibility risks, and others.”20 The names characterize the risks sufficiently; I will in more detail focus on the currency risk. Currency
or foreign exchange risk arises from unpredictable movements of exchange rates. That means that
changes in exchange rate levels can influence the sum of the firm´s incomes or outcomes. All
companies are influenced by the changes of exchange rates of those currencies, mostly used in their
international activities. When a company faces the currency risk, we speak about currency exposure.
18
This paper was created within the frame of project IGA „The significance of financial markets in international
business under the condition of globalized world economy“, Nr. F2/5/
19
Coyle, B: Introduction to Currency Risk
20
Machková, H., Černohlávková, E., Sato, A. a kolektiv: Mezinárodní obchodní operace
92
There are three types of currency exposures, namely transaction, economic and translation exposure. In
what cases the firm is undergoing particular type of currency risk is shown on the following diagram.
Diagram 1: Currency risk exposures
Source: Coyle, B: Introduction to Currency Risk
Next to those three basic types of currency exposures sometimes the pre-transaction exposure is also
mentioned. This exposure is connected to the need to publish the price lists and set the final bid to the
business partner long before the transaction is settled. The company faces the pre-transaction exposure
when the exchange rate level is revised during the time of price calculation and the settlement of the
agreement.
It´s obvious that in the conditions of fixed exchange rates, no currency risk is needed to be managed.
Till the existence of Bretton Wood currency system, the firms were saved from currency risk
management. Also the establishment of single European currency made the risk management easier for
companies from Euro-area using Euro as their accounting currency with majority of business partners.
For the Czech Republic, the perspective of Euro implementation is far away, that´s why the Czech
companies have to familiarize the management with currency risk management and available hedging
techniques.
The openness of Czech Republic
It stands the more open the economy, the higher dependence of foreign trade activities with more
companies integrated in the international conversion of goods and services. The economy differs in
extend of their international activities. If the economy and its domestic companies widely participate
on the international markets, it is spoken about open economy. The Czech Republic is a small
economy, situated in the middle of the Europe, with insufficient raw materials resources. Just from this
primal characteristic we can expect that Czech Republic should be qualified as the open economy.
Let´s discuss more economic indicators, discovering the openness of the Czech economy, its growth
dependence on external influences, inclusive exchange rate fluctuations. Following indices are mainly
used when comparing the economy openness:
−
Export as a percentage of GDP, −
Import as a percentage of GDP −
turn‐over of international trade (Export + Import) / GDP, −
Export per capita. The economy can´t be easily qualified as an open or a close one, it must be defined relatively in
relation to other systems. In this paper I decided to use the comparison with 3 other European
economies, with a similar geographical area and due to the historical development of Czech Republic I
have also added data about Slovakia. I presented the change in the indicator´s value during 10 years; I
compared the data between 2000 and 2010 and I also added years 2007, 2008 and 2009 to see the
downturn of international activities during and after financial crises. The first two tables are showing
the export, event. import, of mentioned countries as a percentage of GDP.
93
Table 1: Export as a percentage of GDP
EXP / GDP
2010
2009
2008
75,3
69,1
77,1
Czech Republic
102,9
90,7
83,4
Ireland
68,2
54,6
59,9
Lithuania
55,3
50,5
59,2
Austria
80,9
70,6
83,3
Slovakia
Source: Eurostat, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/
2007
80,1
80,5
54,1
59,3
86,7
2000
63,4
98,1
44,7
46,4
70,4
2007
75,1
71,5
67,4
53,6
87,8
2000
66,4
84,7
51
44,7
73,0
Table 2: Import as a percentage of GDP
IMP / GDP
2010
2009
2008
70,5
63,6
72,5
Czech Republic
84,0
75,4
74,4
Ireland
69,6
56,1
71,7
Lithuania
50,5
46,0
53,4
Austria
81,9
71,0
85,6
Slovakia
As seen in the tables, in comparison with the 4 countries the Czech Republic is after Ireland and
Slovakia the third most open economy. The most rapid growth of both indicators during those 10 years
embodies Lithuania, which had the lowest values at the beginning of tracking period. In all the
countries a slowdown is to be observed either 2008 or 2009 as a consequence of financial crises.
Ireland is a specific case because its values get the top values already in 2000, then a slowdown came
and another increase of the indicator´s levels came in 2006. None of the countries except of Ireland
reached in 2010 the precritical level of import as a percentage of GDP, in the export indicator just
Lithuania get over that value of 2008. Following tables show the turn-over of international trade to
GDP and the value of Exports per capita.
Table 3: Turn-over of international trade to GDP
Int. trade TO/GDP
2010
2009
2008
2007
1,46
1,33
1,50
1,55
Czech Republic
1,87
1,66
1,58
1,52
Ireland
1,38
1,11
1,32
1,22
Lithuania
1,06
0,97
1,13
1,13
Austria
1,63
1,42
1,69
1,75
Slovakia
Source: Eurostat, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/, own calculations
2000
1,30
1,83
0,96
0,91
1,43
Table 4: Export per capita
EXP per capita
2010
2009
2008
:
9000
10900
Czech Republic
35400
32400
33800
Ireland
5700
4300
5800
Lithuania
18800
16600
20100
Austria
9800
8200
9900
Slovakia
2007
9900
34900
4600
19400
8800
2000
3800
27100
1600
12000
2900
The values in Table 3 show almost the same results as in Tables 1 and 2. The highest levels embody
Ireland, than Slovakia, Czech Republic, Lithuania and Austria. In the last table the number of
inhabitants influences the results. The data for Czech Republic in 2010 are unfortunately not yet
available but from the previous years the trend is quite visible. The numbers of the most open economy
in this set of countries, namely Ireland are more than three times higher than in case of Czech Republic
in the last four years. The situation of Czech Republic before the entry in EU was even worse and we
94
can see grow of the indicator by 137 % between 2000 and 2009. In comparison with other newcomers
of EU, Slovakia and Lithuania, the results in the Czech Republic are the highest.
In this section I have compared Czech Republic with 4 other countries, all of them are members of EU
with similar geographical area. In all the observed indicators, the Czech Republic occupies the third
place. Despite the fact that all the viewed countries were supposed to be open because of their area and
natural conditions, the Czech Republic was always in the middle of surveying. That means that the
Czech Republic belongs to open economics, whose economy and companies well being is highly
dependent on the external influences. That represents e.g. economic situation of their business partners
and the changes of exchange rates of currencies mostly used for their abroad activities. To specify
which currencies are the mostly used in the foreign business of Czech companies I will now present
the territorial structure of Czech foreign trade.
The territorial structure of Czech foreign trade
The territorial structure of the Czech foreign trade corresponds to the geographical location of the
Czech Republic. We are mainly oriented to the neighbouring countries, namely Germany and
Slovakia. That fact remains stable over the 11 years long period, when comparing data from 1999 and
2010. Following table shows the top 10 countries in 1999 and 2010 where the Czech Republic was
exporting to.
Table 5: Foreign trade of the Czech Republic – territorial structure of exports
Country
2010
1999
mil. CZK mil. CZK
Germany
802 492
331 889
Slovakia
220 596
60 893
Poland
154 833
55 676
France
135 445
52 624
Great Britain
122 554
48 146
Austria
118 196
47 915
Italy
112 195
38 496
Nederland
93 780
37 742
Russia
67 392
35 016
Belgium
62 061
23 434
Source: The Czech Statistical Bureau
Country
Germany
Slovakia
Austria
Italy
Russia
France
USA
Great Britain
Poland
Nederland
As seen from the table, the export of the Czech Republic is mostly oriented into European countries.
The first two positions remain the same during the last 11 years and the sums of exports naturally rose.
The amount of exports to Germany rose 2,5times in the observed period, even higher increase noted
the sum of exports to Slovakia, when rising more than 3,5times. The third place adopted in 2010 by
Poland with the progress by six imaginary positions in the territorial ranking of the Czech exports.
From the non-European countries in the top 10 Czech export destinations remained Russia, with a
moderate growth between the years 1999 and 2010. It is supposed that China, not yet appearing in top
10 export destination, will acquire increasing role in the Czech foreign trade. Especially the import
from China has grown significantly, when reaching the second value of imports in 2010 directly after
Germany. If we compare the situation of Czech imports the involved countries remains almost the
same as in the export statistic. Only Japan, Russia and as was said before China, extend otherwise
absolutely European concentration of the foreign trade of the Czech Republic.
Table 6: Foreign trade of the Czech Republic – territorial structure of imports
Country
Germany
China
Country
2010
1999
mil. CZK mil. CZK
610 129
381 198 Germany
291 473
75 329 Slovakia
95
Poland
153 248
59 434
Russia
129 914
50 756
Slovakia
123 617
35 550
Italy
93 269
33 307
Austria
80 612
30 493
France
79 089
22 199
Nederland
77 044
21 497
Japan
58 414
18 695
Source: The Czech Statistical Bureau
Austria
Poland
France
Italy
Great Britain
Nederland
USA
Belgium
As seen from the statistical data, the Czech companies are trading mainly with the European countries.
80 % (resp. 60 %) from all the Czech export partners (resp. import partners) are members of the
European union and 66,2 % (50,1 %) of the total exports (resp. imports) are directed into Euro area.
The exports going to USA creates just 1,8 % of total outgoing exports, the imports exceeding with 2,2
%. The rising significance gets the relation to China. Although just 0,9 % of total Czech exports are
directed to China, the imports are rising recently when achieving 12,2 % of the total imports21. After
this observation, we can suppose that the majority of international transactions will be denominated in
Euro. The companies from developing countries don´t use their domestic currencies when dealing with
foreign company. The volatility of those currencies is often very high, and therefore the US dollar is
generally used as clearing currency. Than we can judge also the business contracts with states like
Russia and other states of former Easter block will be denominated in US dollar. But the usage of Euro
is rising and according to business experience some contracts with China and Russia just started to be
denominated in Euro. In general the US dollar is used when invoicing the purchase of raw materials,
commodities, freight and insurance. The countries of former US political clout constantly use US
dollar as clearing unit. Due to all these facts, generally the majority of Czech risk managers of
internationally active companies will mainly observe the movements of exchange rate CZK/EUR and
CZK/USD22.
Despite of growing values of exports and imports of the Czech Republic, the number of companies
with international activities is decreasing. Due to the Czech Statistical Bureau during the years 1999
and 2008 the number of export oriented companies decreased from 39476 firms in 1999 to 18455 in
2008. The numbers of import oriented firms show similar trend, in 1999 there were 60615 of them in
comparison with 33105 in 2008. Next to this general data, in the statistic is also mentioned that in 1999
85 % of the exporting companies embodied the nominal value of their transaction of less than 10
Million CZK per year, comparing with just 55 % of them in 2008. In 1999 the total value of exported
goods and services exceeded 50 Million CZK per one year just in 5,3 % of companies, in 2008 the
proportion changed to 21 % of all exporting companies. That means, that the values of goods and
services exported or imported by the Czech companies are rising together with the growing value of
currency exposure of the majority of businesses. The former argument of all sized companies, that
their exposures are too small to be hedged by some financial instruments looses on importance.
The volatility of selected currencies
It is supposed that during the financial crises the volatility of exchange rates rose dramatically. In the
next paragraph I will discuss that statement. I will compare the values of volatility of following
currency pairs:
− CZK/EUR, − CZE/USD, − EUR/USD, − EUR/JPY. 21
22
Dates related to 2010.
Note: Definitely the concrete territorial specialization of the firm has to be respected.
96
Evaluation of the volatility of particular currency couple can be easily done by observing the given
graph of exchange rate development. On the next graph session, we can observe the long term
development of exchange rates of named currency pairs.
Graph 1: The development of exchange rate CZK to EUR and USD (4.1.1999 - 29.4.2011)
Source: www.kurzy.cz
Graph 2: The development of FX EUR/USD Graph 3: The development of FX EUR/100JPY
(4.1.1999 - 29.4.2011)
(4.1.1999 - 29.4.2011)
As seen in the graphs, CZK embodies long term appreciation to both given currencies, the Euro and
US dollar. In the half of the year 2008 the long term trend was cut by the breakdown of financial
markets. The Czech koruna depreciates till the first quarter of 2009, acquiring its maximum in March
2009. From that time the appreciation trend continues in the relation to Euro. The depreciation of CZK
relate to USD repeated during first half of 2010, since them CZK strengthen its position attacking the
pre-critical values. When comparing the development of exchange rate of EUR related to USD a JPY
the similar trend is to be observed till the end of 2008. Afterwards the Euro appreciated rapidly in
relation to JPY, not that much to USD. In the first quarter of 2009 the trend synchronized repeatedly
and separated till after the middle of the year 2010. Observing the long term period graphs of given
currencies, we can deduce, that the CZK volatility rose during the financial crises and afterwards
remained to appreciate due to its long term trend. When talking about the exchange rate of Euro to
both USD and JPY the higher volatility is observed from the beginning of the crises till the present
time. For the companies transforming their incomes and outcomes from or to foreign currency the
short term change in exchange rates are more important. The time period usually lasts from one month
to half of the year.
More detailed results bring the calculation of price volatility as the deviation of exchange rate
movements over a period of time. Due to the non-stationary character of financial time series, which
can´t be described using the normal distribution, we have to transform their values by differentiation
and making logarithms. After that we can use the following common formula for volatility calculation.
97
Dt .......exchange rate value in time t
D t-1.....exchange rate value in time t-1
ts .........time period of observation
n .........number of values D t/D t-1
s .........standard deviation
X ........simple average of Xi
Xi ....... natural logarithm of Dt/Dt-1
In the calculation of particular exchange rates volatilities I was working with the average weekly
values of single currency pairs. I counted the volatilities for that four currency pairs during the years
2002 – 2004 and 2007 – 2010 to easily decide, weather the financial crises evoke the rise in exchange
rates volatilities. The volatility is always measured for the same three months period (January –
March) of the given years. The results are presented in following table.
Table 7: Volatility of CZK/EUR, CZE/USD, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY exchange rates (%)
2002
2003
2004
2007
2008
2009
2010
2,7
3,9
5,5
3,5
4,6
3,3
CZK/EUR
15,5
6,0
9,5
10,7
4,9
8,8
8,7
CZK/USD
25,6
6,0
9,2
7,5
3,1
8,2
7,2
EUR/USD
14,7
10,0
8,4
10,0
7,6
10,7
9,7
EUR/JPY
20,3
Source: own calculations based on the dates from Eurostat and Czech National Bank
It is quite obvious that despite of different levels of volatilities of single currency pairs, the financial
crises meant a significant increase of all the observed volatilities. More than three times raised the
volatility of CZK to both the EUR and USD, when comparing dates from the years 2008 and 2009.
Almost doubled volatilities embodies EUR in both currency pairs. How the volatility of exchange rates
influences the importer of good to the Czech Republic easily presents following example.
Example:
The Czech exporter decides to sell the goods to the German business partner for
1.000.000,- EUR. In the time he signs the contract (on the 17.2.) the CZK/EUR
exchange rate reaches the different level in comparison to the exchange rate in the time
of payment (17.3.). Following table shows the differences of expected incomes in the
time of moderate and high exchange rate volatility.
2002
2009
Signing contract
31.878.000 CZK
29.490.000 CZK
Payment
31.462.000 CZK
26.513.000 CZK
Difference
416.000 CZK
2.977.000 CZK
In both situations the CZK appreciated during the time between signing the contract and
financial clearing of the receivable, that means the exporter get less money than he
expected. But in the year with lower volatility of CZK/EUR, the difference of the debt
value on the 17.2. and 17.3. was seven times lower comparing the difference in 2009.
To summarize the above mentioned facts: the companies are mainly interested in short term changes in
exchange rates. Without using currency risk management techniques, the probability of loses caused
by exchange rates fluctuations is raising, especially in time of high exchange rates volatilities.
Basics of currency risk management
The currency risk management often named as hedging has nothing common with hedge funds or
similar institutions. Hedging can be defined just as a different type of insurance. Managing the foreign
exchange exposures is a long term process consisting from following steps:
−
identification and quantification of foreign exchange exposure, −
developing a company´s policy concerning currency risk, 98
−
hedging exposures with financial or other techniques, −
evaluating and adjusting the hedging process. The cases when the company faces the currency risk were described in the beginning of this paper.
Identifying the net exposure to the particular currency means not only paring the debts and receivables
denominated in that currency, the manager have to take into account also the maturity of them.
When developing the policy of risk management, in the concrete firms it always depends on the
subjective risk acceptance of financial management. The manager can behave risk neutral, risk averse
or he can seek for risk. It is important to differ between the risk neutral policy and the absolute
ignorance of hedging. When the manager behaves risk neutral, he believes that all that exposures and
gains and losses originating from them will balance each other. In comparison with risk ignorance,
when no risk exposures are measuring and none of hedging principles are used. Setting the hedging
policy means the decision making about how much off the upcoming exposures will be hedged or
setting the upper limits for particular currency exposure. E.g. the manager sets following principles.
The company will hedge:
− 80 % of risk exposures expected in the next 6 months, − 60 – 80 % of risk exposures expected in the 6 – 12 months, − 30 – 60 % of risk exposures expected in the next 12 – 24 months. The company also have to establish, if the use of financial instruments, described later, has just
hedging purposes or if the speculation is allowed23. The creation of currency risk policy is influenced
by following factors:
− “relative size of the exposure to the size of company´s cash flows and profits, − nature of exposure (transaction, economic or translation exposure), − certainty of exposure, − probable direction of exchange rate movements (due to the subjective expectation).”24 There are plenty of techniques used by risk managers. I will discuss the natural a financial hedging.
Natural hedging means the tendency to pair so-called long and short currency expositions. Long
exposition is typical for exporters, which mean the sum of receivables in foreign currency exceeds the
sum of debts in that currency. Short position, conversely, characterize the importers, when debts in
particular currency lap over the receivables. The efficiency of natural hedging is decreasing when the
maturity of pairing debts and outstanding is different.
If it is impossible to use the natural hedging, the financial markets offer wide range of financial
hedging instruments, namely foreign exchange forwards, currency options and currency swaps. All
these financial instruments belong to forward financial instruments. That means the date of the
contract agreement and settlement is different. Forward, options and swaps provide for their buyer the
possibility to settle the price of the contract already today, with the settlement in the future. The
counterparties in the currency derivatives contracts are commonly commercial banks. The major
advantage of the use of currency derivatives is the certainty about how much of the domestic currency
the company gets in the future. The simplest instrument, the forward, is mainly used when the
exposure maturity is no longer than one year. The banks settle the upper and bottom limits on the value
of the transaction, sometimes also collateral is required. Currency option brings its buyer in
comparison to the forward contract the possibility to participate on the favourable movements of
exchange rates. The forward contract once is closed, the buyer is obliged to buy the currency for given
price (exchange rate). The option gives its buyer the right but not the duty to buy the currency. When
the direction of exchange rates movements brings additional profits, the buyer won´t exercise the
option and uses the market exchange rate. For this right the special premium determined as proportion
23
Note: As seen in the business routine, it is really important to separate financial speculation and core business
activities. For an example I mention the case of Enron, whose collapse was also brought about the non-adequate
usage of financial derivatives in order to speculate.
24
Coyle, B.: Hedging currency exposures
99
of the total contract value has to be paid. Currency swap combines spot and forward contract. On the
spot market the foreign currency is bought and on the forward market the currency is sold.
Conclusion
The Czech Republic represents the open economics with all the benefits and disadvantages arising
from that fact. The entry into the European Union simplified the conditions of foreign trade of the
Czech Republic and contributed to widen international expansion of many Czech companies. Till the
adoption of the Euro, the Czech companies will be exposed to exchange rate movements of CZK/EUR
and CZK/USD.
The fading financial crises brought the growth of exchange rate volatilities. The open, not hedged,
currency exposures can bring significant losses in comparison with the less volatile periods of time.
The companies are pressed to cost limitation in all aspects of exercising business. The financial crises
were often described as a crisis of liquidity. The appropriate risk management can ensure higher
predictability of future cash flows, eliminates the need of accurate forecasting of the future exchange
rates movements and makes it easier to price the company´s goods and services intended to foreign
sales.
Hedging or currency risk management process comprehends wide range of activities. The treasury or
financial managers have to create a complex risk exposure policy involving the specific character of
their company. The policy effectively working in one company doesn´t need to function in another
one. When the natural hedging is not applicable, the banks offer simplest currency derivatives suitable
for hedging activities. Just like as hedging policy, different for each company, the usage of derivatives
is even more individual. Every manager has to consider carefully which financial instrument is the
most suitable for his business.
References:
1. BUDÍKOVÁ, M., KRÁLOVÁ, M., MAROŠ, B. Průvodce základními statistickými metodami.
Praha: Grada, 2010. ISBN 978-80-247-3243-5
2. COYLE, B.: Hedging currency exposures. Canterbury: Financial World, BPP Financial
Education, 2000. ISBN 0-85297-438-8
3. COYLE, B.: Introduction to currency risk. Canterbury: Financial World, BPP Financial
Education, 2000. ISBN 0-85297-432-9
4. GRATH, A.: The handbook of international trade and finance: the complete guide to risk
management, international payments and currency management, bonds and guarantees, credit
insurance and trade finance. London, Philadelphia: Kogan Page, 2008. ISBN 9780749453206
5. JÍLEK, J. Deriváty, hedžové fondy, offshorové společnosti. Praha: Grada, 2006. 260 s. ISBN
80-247-1826-X
6. KOUKALOVÁ, K. Řízení finančních rizik v mezinárodním podnikání. 2009. diploma thesis
7. MACHKOVÁ, H., ČERNOHLÁVKOVÁ, E., SATO, A. a kol. Mezinárodní obchodní
operace. 4. akt. vydání Praha: Grada, 2007. 242 s. ISBN 978-80-247-1590-2
8. White Paper: Managing Foreign Exchange Risk. Export Development Canada.2010, available
at: www.edc.ca THE VENTURE CAPITAL/PRIVATE EQUITY INDUSTRY
INTERNATIONALIZATION AND ITS POSITION IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN EUROPE25
Internacionalizace rizikového kapitálu a jeho postavení
na trhu střední a východní Evropy
Ing. Martin JUREK
Katedra mezinárodního obchodu FMV VŠE v Praze
[email protected]
Abstract
The venture capital and private equity industry establishes a fairly new form of entrepreneurial
activity financing for the Central and Eastern Europe region. An investor enters a firm in a stage where
standardized bank financial instruments are overwhelmingly costly or due to information asymmetry
unavailable. The partnership is based not only on a financial support but also on a managerial expertise
and industry knowledge provision. The investor is generally a private owned venture capital/private
equity fund.
This article first introduces the risk capital as such. A phenomenon of the industry is its almost
continuous growth which is supported in particular by its global expansion. From already well
saturated Western markets investors are shifting towards markets of the Central and Eastern Europe.
Investment firms´ internationalization is a part of the second part. The internationalization can be
described from the theoretical point of view by the modified eclectic theory and the
internationalization model based on a combination of internal and external driving forces.
The development and position of risk capital in the Central and Eastern Europe is stated in the
last part. The investment value in absolute numbers has risen in last years. This growth is however not
evenly distributed and is driven by only a few countries. Investments as a percentage of the gross
domestic product ratio have been growing in the tracked period as well. In 2009 was this ratio even
higher than in the European Union. Even though the global attractiveness index does not find the
region very attractive a positive trend in risk capital growth can be predicted for the short run.
Introduction
Venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) industry has its origin in the United States
of America. In Czech literature a common term risk capital is mainly applied. Such capital represents a
fairly new and a relatively rarely used form of entrepreneurial activity financing in the Czech market
an in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Risk capital term definition varies and even terminology
applied is not united (Černohlávková et al., 2007). A broader definition used by the European Private
Equity and Venture Capital Association (EVCA) introduces risk capital as an entrepreneurial activity
financing form in various development phases. Investments start with a seed, start up and early growth
financing and through transaction activities, mergers and acquisitions end by either initial public
offerings (IPO) or rescue financing.
25
Tento příspěvek vznikl v rámci řešení projektu IGA „Význam finančních trhů pro mezinárodní podnikání v podmínkách
globalizované světové ekonomiky“, č. F2/5/2011.
102
How is this industry actually distinctive? Within the service sector, VC/PE investors are
classifiable. In comparison to consultants/accountants who provide strategic advice only, risk capital
investors provide both guidance and monetary support (Wright et al., 2005). Next, in contrast to banks
they provide equity capital that is designed for use in risky settings where it is costly for lenders and
borrowers to interact due to asymmetric information problems (Jeng and Wells, 2000). Investors,
however, do not only pursue short term investment value appreciation but they strive for a total firm´s
evaluation increase. They share this common interest with subject´s owners and serve as business
partners as a result. This partnership is based is firstly based on financial support and secondly on
management experience and industrial knowledge provision.
An investor is generally a private owned VC/PE fund, an investment company. Next possibility
is a fund partially owned by a corporate entity which main activity is different. In such a case we talk
about a captive (share is larger than 50%) or a semi-captive (20-50%) mother company. Last option is
a government owned fund being a part of public pension fund. This way is well developed especially
in Nordic countries.
Global Expansion of Risk Capital
Recently, venture capital and private equity have increasingly become an international
phenomenon for the flow of capital (Bygrave and Timmons, 1999). Their international dimension in
terms of the sums of money involved and their geographical diversity have gradually increased over
the last 30 years (except for 1989-1990, 2000-2001, 2008-2009). This growth of the industry is pulled
by several factors.
First of all it is the international expansion of VC/PE firms. This industry segment created in
the United States of America spread itself first to the United Kingdom, the whole Western Europe and
Japan. As those markets became saturated a shift of investments towards developing countries with
regulatory changes was noticeable. Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong turned to well established
markets as a result. Countries of the Central and Eastern Europe, especially Poland and Hungary did
not also stay behind (Karsai, 2009).
Next significant element in the global expansion of risk capital is internationalization of
investments. This trend was enabled by the following three circumstances: (1) lower legal barriers, (2)
elimination of institutional constraints and (3) reduction of information asymmetry. Foreign investors
can serve as a very important source of risk capital especially in countries where their own the
domestic supply is limited. Cross-border investments include not only financial inflows into funds but
also finance outflows to foreign markets. In Europe, for instance, from 1990 to 2007 increased the
foreign risk capital inflow from 20% up to 47.6% and outflow from 7.7% to 28.8% (EVCA, 2009).
Funds origin in the time horizon 2003-2007 is displayed in the following figure. Only 65.8% of funds
allocated in Europe have its origin here too.
103
Figure 1: Geographical origin of risk capital funds in Europe (2003-2007)
Source: EVCA 2009
Internationalization of the Venture Capital/Private Equity industry
Internationalization of VC/PE industry and its theoretical background can be found especially
in the J.H. Dunning´s eclectic theory. This is theory is sometimes known as the OLI paradigm –
ownership, location, internalization. The author focuses on three prospects identified in different
theories, namely ownership specific endowments, internalization and location specific endowments.
The impact of specific endowments leads to three different approaches towards
internationalization: (1) Contract, (2) Export, (3) Direct investment (Kutschker and Schmid, 2008). In
the case when a firm possesses ownership advantages, the foreign location has specific endowments
and the firm is capable and willing of internationalizing its operation abroad, it will generally engage
in foreign direct investment (FDI).
Agmon and Mesicca (2008) in their article bring about the concept of financial foreign direct
investment (FFDI). In the case of an FFDI, the firms are specialized financial institutions. The
exported factor of production (their ownership advantage is then a high-risk sector specific resource –
capital. In comparison to foreign direct investment, the financial foreign direct investment is focused
on a shorter period of time (3-8 years). The FFDI is primarily designed for a higher return on
investment generating. It is necessary to point out that the ownership specific endowment is not only a
capital entry but also the earlier mentioned managerial expertise, networking and strategic consultancy.
The eclectic theory and its modified version of financial foreign direct investment explains the
internationalization of the industry only generally. Practically applicable are elements of internal and
external driving forces – triggers which are deducible in some internationalization theories and models.
A combination of these internal and external driving forces is behind the risk capital entry into
foreign markets based on own empirical study. In the study risk capital funds managers and academic
experts were interviewed and selected articles applied. A deeper analysis of the data collected is
desirable and will follow in next articles. The whole process flows according to the scheme in Figure
2. Internal forces influence the firm´s critical decision to internationalize. External forces decide about
specific foreign markets and their economic vicinity. A foreign market entry strategy is then a result of
both forces categories. Internationalization models and theories build a theoretical connection between
the internal and external forces. The internationalizing firm is surely not aware of the above mentioned
concept that the firm is creating. The evaluation takes place ex post as a result.
104
Figure 2: Risk capital internationalization model
Source: author
The internal driving forces are constituted on the firm´s level as such. It can be described by
two models. The first one is the Swedish internationalization process model (Johanson and Vahlne,
1990). In the model the internationalization can be viewed as continuously proceeding series of affairs
and as a learning process. The fundamental idea is that the current state strongly influences the future
state of internationalization. A market engagement is characterized by level of resources and by a
degree of commitments to a certain market. Detection of opportunities, recognition of competitors,
market conditions and distribution channels analysis are all based on the market knowledge.
Resources in the firm are the second model (Wright, 2001). Following sections are related to
the Wright´s resource model: general human capital, management know-how, industry-specific knowhow, ability to acquire financial capital. International activities are dependent just on those resources.
Human capital, strategy and management vision are different and constructed by one´s own opinion on
the market and ambitions.
External driving forces influence the foreign country selection which the risk capital investor is
entering. In the so called meta level (above-industry level) the effects of economic distance are arising.
This distance can be divided into psychological and physical one (Johansson and Vahlne, 1990). The
psychological distance is built by constraints repressing flow of information form the market to the
firm and vice versa. The physical distance is a barrier in the flow of goods and payments between the
firm and the market. For the purposes of a strategic audit of macro environment and foreign market
evaluation the PEST analysis is suitable.
A consequential interconnection of internal and external driving forces based on SWOT
analysis, a specific foreign market entry strategy is created. One of such market for Western risk
capital investors was after the fall of the Iron curtain also the market of the Central and Eastern
Europe. The position of the region is described in the following parts.
Development of the Risk Capital in the CEE
The venture capital and private equity financing in the CEE region was practically non-existent
before the fall of the Iron curtain. The development of the region´s risk capital market can be
fragmented into four phases according to the EBRD (2006). The first phase lasted from the fall of the
Iron curtain in 1989 to 1995. The risk capital industry backed by Western headquarters spread
unequally all around the region. In comparison to the very much saturated European markets, the CEE
region still hided growth potential and is attractive to the investors. Analyzing the VC/PE development
in the early 90s the specifics of the privatization of the government owned companies arose. Wright
and Karsai highlight different investment practices of the regional investors in comparison to the
global market players. They also point out the very significant hands-on participation of investors and
reveal specific obstacles to catch up with the developed markets. Besides global funds investing
government funds, the country funds dominated with an average size of USD 50 million.
105
In the second phase that lasted until the end of the 90s, the upswing of regional funds is
noticeable. At this period country funds and sector funds are appearing. Funds´ size increased to USD
150 million on average. The investing in venture´s growth started to proceed and the private equity
market experienced first consolidations. Even in the late 90s however the VC/PE development in the
CEE was rather slow. According to some authors (Karsai, 2009), the main obstacle of the region was
the lack of qualified managerial skills of financed companies´ management. Then the low and not well
defined protection of the shareholders´ rights and limited credit sources were other restrictions.
A fast expansion was characteristic for the third phase that finished in the time of the internet
bubble burst. Even though regional funds dominated, technology financing became a phenomenon.
The trend of increased size continued up to an average of USD 300 million. New forms of financing
showed up in this time, namely an early-stage, seed and start-up financing. Also expansive private
equity followed the growing path.
The last phase started in the 2001 and finished in 2007 before the global financial crisis.
Rationalization and consolidation processes were at the spotlight, letting only the successful fund
managers to survive. The financing brought about a new trend of buy-outs and mergers. A significant
interest from foreign investors aroused at this period. Especially the European Union first round 2004
membership countries started to receive a lot of investors´ attention. As a result especially the Czech
Republic, Hungary and Poland became soon very distinctive in comparison to other region´s countries.
Lower administrative barriers, higher security rates, judicial/legislative convergence and promising
economic development brought about many global players into them. In the following part the recent
development is analyzed. This period can be viewed as the fifth phase.
Current Position of the Industry in the CEE
As mentioned above the CEE region has been receiving a positive attention from the investors
in the fifth phase that can be supported by data in Figure 3. We can see the more than threefold
upswing in investment value in 2006 compared to almost stable level in previous three years. The level
of investment in 2007 exceeded the 2006 by additional 40%. The growth was generated mainly by the
Polish market. In the same period of time, the level of investment in whole Europe rose only by 6%.
Investment value in 2008 continued to slightly increase followed by a 1% decrease in 2009 as a
reflection of the financial crisis. The European markets, however, went down by significant 60%
between this time horizon 2008-2009 as displayed in Figure 4. It can be assumed that attractiveness of
the CEE markets went up due to the following logical construction. First, the effect of the financial
crisis shocking the Western Europe showed VC/PE investors the importance of portfolio´s
diversification. Next, the increased concerns regarding regulation levels in Europe and the USA as a
direct consequence of the crisis turmoil shacked up investors´ confidence in those two well established
region. As a result, investors started searching for new target markets more urgently. The CEE region
showed relatively fast growing potential and was at first less influenced by the effects of the financial
crisis.
Figure 3: Investment value in the CEE region
Source: Central and Eastern Europe Statistics 2009
Figure 4: Investment value in the European Union 2007-2009
106
Source: EVCA 2009
The trend of risk capital investments inflow towards the CEE markets changed significantly
region´s position in relative terms, in comparison with peers. In 2007 the region accounted only for a
little over 3% of the whole European investments. This figure increased more than threefold up to
almost 11% in 2009 (see Figure 5).
Figure 5: Proportion of investments in the CEE in comparison to the whole Europe
Source: author
The investment activity is however not equal and the region is rather heterogeneous. The top
five target countries are: Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria (see Figure 6).
These countries build 93% of total investments in the region in 2009. Out of these five markets, the
Czech one excelled in 2009 making 60% out of the total.
Of the € 1.4bn invested in the Czech Republic more than 70% went into buyout deals.
Regarding the number of companies financed, buyouts and growth capital were on a par, each
accounting for 38% of the total. Less than one in five deals were venture investments (CVCA, 2009).
This success however is driven only by a few investments from companies having their seat in the
Czech Republic but also operating in the region.
26
107
Figure 6: Investments in the CEE region (in € million)
In Figure 1 the increasing importance of cross-border investments was presented, showing that
65.8% of European risk capital funds have its origin in Europe. Figure 7 displays the situation in the
CEE. The size of all European sources (including the CEE) corresponds with the 65.8% only partially,
averaging 53.8% (2007-2009). Very low are domestic sources of funds accounting only for 17.7% in
2009 being it the highest proportion in last three years. According to Czech Venture Capital
association, about 71% of the funds committed by European sources came from the UK. That only
confirms the most developed country with regard to the VC/PE industry.
Figure 7: Source of Funds in the CEE
To compare the value investments in the region with the EU an analysis of investments as a
percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is applied. In all monitored years is the EU average
percentage almost three times higher than in the CEE (Figure 8). A dramatic change started in 2008
and continued in 2009. The value of investments in the EU was rapidly falling down and the EU
average ended up below the CEE. This evolution is firstly highly affected by decrease in the value of
private equity investments in the main EU markets being a result of the economic and financial crisis.
Secondly, the great proportion levels of investments in the CEE is significantly affected by the
extraordinary investments in the Czech Republic and also by increased investments in Bulgaria (see
Figure 9). The anticyclical trend in both countries builds overall positive data for 2009 in the region.
26
To the countries under the column other belong: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Slovakia,
Estonia.
108
Figure
8:
Investments
as
a
percentage
of
GDP:
CEE
and
EU
comparison
Source: CVCA 2009
Figure 9: Investments as a percentage of
GDP
Source: CVCA 2009
Attractiveness of the CEE region
A crucial question is whether the region will be appealing to foreign investors willing to
allocate the capital in future years. Figure 8 shows a stable and increasing growth in proportion to
GDP. Is this trend going to continue or are the “golden years” over (Karsai, 2009)? According to the
risk capital internationalization model from Figure 2 the internal driving forces influence the primary
decision to internationalize. Afterwards the external driving forces play their role. From the
institutional investor´s point of view the analyses of socioeconomic data or PEST analysis are mainly
applied when deciding where to invest. Investors are seeking opportunities and the highly liquid
capital can be moved globally extremely quickly. Regions and more specifically countries are
influencing the conditions to attract international VC/PE investments and are actually competing
with each other.
The attractiveness of the CEE region was analyzed in the world country attractiveness index
(Groh and Liechtenstein, 2010). This index assesses six latent key drivers including the following: (1)
Economic activity, (2) Depth of a Capital Market, (3) Taxation, (4) Investor
Protection and
Corporate Governance, (5) Human and Social Environment, (6) Entrepreneurial Culture and
109
Opportunities. According to this index the CEE region is the second least attractive region for risk
capital investment followed only by Latin America. Even regions like Africa or Middle East scored
significantly higher.
From the Groh and Liechtenstein´s report following conclusions can be derived. Many
countries in the CEE region offer high tax incentives. In some the privatization process is still going
on. Reforms of legal systems provide increasing security and pleasant environment for investors. Some
countries are already members of the EU and two even joined the Eurozone, the rest is converging
towards permanent membership. Elemental weaknesses are region´s stock markets. The only strong
one can be found in Poland. Entrepreneurial culture and opportunities for capital investors are catching
up. Effects and consequences of financial crisis may make difficult funding for local general partners.
The data in Figure 3 however doesn’t prove this prediction and the region was not that much
negatively influenced by the financial crisis. At least it holds true for a short run and for the VC/PE
industry. In this respect the future of the industry can be viewed positively for the CEE.
Conclusion
The venture capital and private equity or so called risk capital financing is quite a new industry
in the region of Central and Eastern Europe. The main specifics of the industry are entry timing and a
form of partnership. The investor is entering a company in a phase when standardized bank financing
is unaffordable or unavailable due to information asymmetry. Partnership is based not only
on a financial support but also on a provision of managerial support and industry knowledge. The
investor is usually a privately owned venture capital/private equity fund.
Risk capital investments worldwide have grown almost exclusively in past thirty years.
The phenomenon is an internationalization of the industry. This process can be describ-ed
by a modification of the eclectic theory – the financial foreign direct investment. A more practical
view is brought by the concept of inner and outer forces interacting in the risk capital
internationalization model.
The risk capital industry was practically non-existent before the 1989 in the Central and Eastern
Europe. The development here can be divided into five phases with distinguishable investment
manners. The investments have been growing in past decade up to the annual amount of €2.5 billion in
2009. In other parts of Europe has been the investment trend just opposite in recent years. This was
due to increased regulation levels as a consequence of the financial crisis. The proportion of
investments in the region in comparison to the whole Europe has rapidly increased up to 11% as a
result. The region is however not homogeneous and country investment activity differs significantly,
with the Czech Republic scoring the highest. The steadily increasing domestic sources of funds are still
very low and account only for less than 18%. The region´s investment as proportion of the gross
domestic product was below the European Union average for all years except the year 2009. This fact
was affected by extra-ordinary investments in the Czech Republic and by an unprecedented decrease
in the value of investments in the European Union markets.
The world country attractiveness index for risk capital investments evaluates the region as the
second least attractive. Even regions like Africa or the Middle East score higher. The data presented
however does not correspond with this index. On the contrary, the future development of risk capital
investments in the Central and Eastern Europe will follow the recent positive trend. The golden years
should not be over at least in the short run as a result.
Shrnutí
Financování podnikatelské činnosti formou rizikového kapitálu představuje pro region střední a
východní Evropy relativně nové odvětví. Obor je specifický načasováním vstupu a dále partnerským
vztahem. Investor vstupuje do společnosti ve fázi, kdy standardní institucionalizované úvěrové
nástroje jsou příliš nákladné nebo z důvodu informační asymetrie nedostupné. Jeho cílem není pouze
průběžné zhodnocení vkladu, ale celkové zvýšení hodnoty podniku. Partnerství je založeno nejenom
na finanční podpoře, ale i na poskytování zkušeností s řízením a oborové znalosti. Investorem bývá
nejčastěji soukromě vlastněný VC/PE fond, investiční společnost.
110
V celosvětovém měřítku obor rizikového kapitálu téměř neustále roste už posledních třicet let.
Fenoménem je internacionalizace investic fondů rizikového kapitálu. Ta je umož-něna především
snížením právních zábran, odstraněním institucionálních omezení a snižováním informační asymetrie.
Z teoretického hlediska můžeme vhodně inter-nacionalizaci investic popsat modifikovanou
eklektickou teorií. Z všeobecného pohledu stojí za vstupem rizikového kapitálu na zahraniční trhy
kombinace vnitřních a vnějších hybných sil. Vnitřní silou je firemní úroveň jako taková, vnější pak
ovlivňuje výběr zemí. Následná konkrétní strategie vychází z analýzy obou sil. Internacionalizace je ex
post popsána internacionalizačními teoriemi a modely.
Střední a východní Evropa není z globálního pohledu velmi atraktivním trhem, přesto ale
hodnota ročních investic stabilně roste až na hodnotu 2,5 miliard EUR. Růst je ale tažen především
pěti trhy, nejvýrazněji fondy sídlícími v České republice. Region tedy není homogenní, ale spíše
dvoustupňový. Poměr investic k hrubému domácímu produktu byl ve sledovaném období nižší než
průměr EU až na rok 2009. V tomto roce byl díky prudkému snížení hodnot investic v EU kvůli
nejistotě na trzích a růstu v ČR a Bulharsku celoregionální průměr nad úrovní EU. Podíl investic
regionu na celoevropských investicích se tak výrazně zvýšil až na 11 %. Daný rok byl velmi specifický
a lze se domnívat, že po skončení finanční krize dojde k uklidnění trhů EU, jejichž ukazatele se vrátí k
normálu. Podíl domácích zdrojů je stále stoupající, ale přesto tvoří pouze 18 %.
Světový žebříček atraktivnosti regionů pro rizikový kapitál umístil střední a východní Evropy
na předposlední místo. Lepšího umístění se dostalo i Africe nebo třeba Blízkému východu.
Prezentované údaje ale potvrzují opak a lze předpokládat, že hodnota investic v regionu by měla
naopak nadále stoupat a pokračovat v pozitivním vývoji.
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Ing. Kateřina GAJDUŠKOVÁ
Department of International Trade, Faculty of International Relations,
[email protected]
Abstract
The paper analyzes the development of the current account deficit of the Czech Republic with the help
of relation between national savings and domestic investment. This model declares that if there is high
equilibrium, because the difference is easily compensated by foreign capital. In the Czech Republic
there is a relatively strong dependence between these two variables, which indicates limited capital
mobility. But this dependence weakens gradually, the Czech Republic has been increasing capital
mobility and also inclines more to external imbalances.
Introduction
The external balance is very important for the Czech Republic as a small open economy and therefore
it is often observed among the other economic indicators and often analyzed from various
perspectives. This work focuses on the expression of the development of the external balance - current
account – from the view of the intertemporal approach. This approach expresses the current account
balance as the difference between national savings and domestic investment. In this context, it
considers the mobility of capital in the Czech Republic and its development.
The paper is divided into three consecutive chapters. The first chapter describes the external balance of
the Czech Republic and its development over the past fourteen years. The second chapter is concerned
with the relation between current account and national savings and investment. It describes the
derivation of this model first using graphs and later using the macroeconomic equations. The third
chapter applies the model of the external balance to the Czech Republic. The analysis was calculated
with data from 1995 to 2009. The choice of this period is based on data availability and the
introduction of external convertibility of the Czech crown in October 1995.
The external balance
The external balance is an economic indicator that analyzes the country position in an international
environment. It is a situation of a domestic economy when economic flows between domestic and
foreign entities are balanced. Keynesians focus on the trade balance, inter-temporal approach
emphasizes the importance of the whole current account balance. On the contrary, monetary approach
represents the concept where the external balance is a balanced overall balance of payments. Each
approach emphasizes the importance of different factors affecting the external balance and focuses
directly on them. In fact, international economic flows are subject to all these factors, which can be
mutually supportive, or vice versa, eliminating.
Usually, balanced flows within current account are considered as the external balance, but in case of
the Czech Republic it is appropriate to incorporate direct foreign investment into this comparison as
well. External equilibrium is an optimal level of current account when a country is able in future to pay
its foreign debt (the current account deficit), or when the other countries are able to pay their debt (the
current account surplus). Thus, neither the current account deficit may be undesirable, if foreign
27
This paper was elaborated in the framework of project IGS VŠE v Praze No. F2/15/2010 „Ekonomická rovnováha
nových členských zemí EU v období krize aneb euro jako možný stabilizační prvek regionu?“
112
investment creates high enough profit to repay principal and interest. But a high current account deficit
caused by expansionary fiscal policy, which does not lead to higher profitability of domestic
investment opportunities, may signal serious future problems.
Current account balance is thus basically a matter of balance of current account transactions. Therefore
it is not only a balanced trade balance, but balanced all transaction within also balance of income and
current transfers as a whole. The recommended maximum value of the current account deficit is
represented by 5 % of GDP. The external balance may still be regarded as such a balance, when the
current account deficit exceeds 5 % of GDP, but this deficit is covered by inflow of foreign direct
investment. If rebalanced by foreign direct investment, then the deficit is considered sustainable,
because this source of financing is considered as long-term, stable and non-debt. If foreign direct
investment will generate high profits, the country will have no problems with future repayment of
principal and interest and the deficit is not so risky. However, if the current account deficit is
rebalanced by portfolio and other investment, particularly short-term ones, then it is considered as the
external imbalance, which may cause major problems soon. The development of the current account of
the Czech Republic and its share in GDP shows the following Figure 1.
Figure 1: Current account and foreign direct investment, mil. EUR (left axis), % GDP (right
axis), 1993-2009
Source: Eurostat
The current account of the Czech Republic was in negative numbers during the whole period and
varied in the range of values from -5 028 mil. EUR (in 2003) to
-962 mil. EUR (in 2008). Most of the deficits were created by the trade balance and income balance.
While the trade balance formed the main cause of the current account deficit till 2001, from 2002 the
deficit is caused mainly by the income balance. The increase of the income balance deficit is apparent
within the period and can be identified as the main source of external imbalance of the Czech Republic
at present. The limit of 5 % of GDP was exceeded in times of the monetary crisis in 1996 and 1997
and then in the period 2001-2004.
Since 1998 the Czech Republic has been recording a massive inflow of foreign direct investment,
which successfully offset the current account deficit. Only in 2003 and 2004 they failed to cover the
deficit, because the deficit was of enormous proportions, while the inflow of investments was not as
strong as in previous years. Low inflow of foreign direct investment was also recorded in the period of
113
the financial crisis, when foreign direct investment has not been able to fully cover the current account
deficit. It was not, however, a very large deficit, which could threaten the external balance.
Finally, it can be concluded that the Czech Republic records the external balance in recent years,
which appears to be sustainable. Only in 2002 and 2003 the imbalance increased, but it did not
continue in subsequent years.
Current account as the difference between savings and investment
An analyzing of the external imbalance with the help of the current account balance is based on
already mentioned the inter-temporal approach. This approach to the balance of payments represents
an analysis of consumption, savings and investment. On the basis of national economic identity, it is
possible to derive the relationship between current account balance and the difference in national
savings and investment. This model for the OECD group of countries was compiled by Feldstein and
Horioko28 and in detail analyzed by Feldstein and Bacchetta29 eleven years later. It was also
developed by many other economists and is discussed in present as well. This analysis for different
groups of developed countries has been conducted also by the Czech economists Brada, Mandel and
Tomšík 30.
The work is based on this model and its aim is to analyze the external imbalance of the Czech
Republic and describe the relation between the rate of savings, investment and current account. This
particular model was chosen mainly because of the importance of domestic and foreign investment for
the Czech economy and due to understanding the relation between foreign investment, the current
account deficit and consumer behavior.
Savings – investment relation
Consumers change their consumption spending by adjusting their savings and investment in time. If
they expect decline in living standards in future, they increase savings and invest them. In that way
they minimize the decline in living standards in the future. If the consumer is in an open economy, this
decision will affect the current account balance. Decline in current consumption will also reduce
imports and improve the current account. On the contrary, it causes the growth of future consumption
and imports and it results in a worsening of the current account in the next period. Deciding between
the current and future consumption is influenced by interest rate and this rate also affects the allocation
of production factors in the international environment.31
This situation is graphically expressed on the following Figure 2. Consumers choose between the
current (c1) and future (c2) consumption with the limits given by the budget (line X-X(1 + R).
Optimum situation is reached at point E* where the indifference curve u2 touches the budget constraint
and consumptions are c1* and c2*. Savings, which can be invested, are represented as the difference
between current consumption and budget. If there is a change in interest rates, it reflects the change of
the budget line slope and thus consumer preferences. The increase in interest rates reduces the current
consumption in favor to the future one. The budget line becomes steeper and the indifference curve
will touch it in such a position which corresponds to a lower current consumption and higher future
consumption. By reducing current consumption to increase domestic savings and investment the
economy records a decrease in imports which will improve the current account. On the contrary, in the
future the increased consumption will worsen the current account.32
28
Feldstein, M.; Horioko, C. Domestic Saving and Intgernational Capital Flows. Economic Journal, Vol. 90, 1980, pp.
314-329
29
Feldstein, M.; Bacchetta, P. National Saving and International Investment. National Saving and Economic Performance.
1991, pp. 201-226
30
Brada, J.C.; Mandel, M.; Tomšík, V. Intertemporální přístup k platební bilanci: Vztah míry úspor a míry investic
v bohatých, chudých a transformujících se ekonomikách. Politická ekonomie, 2008, No. 2, pp. 147-161
31
Macháček, M. Mezičasová analýza běžného účtu platební bilance v prostředí modelu reálného
hospodářského cyklu. In Česká ekonomika a ekonomická teorie. Sborník z diskusních seminářů
1998–2002. Praha: Academia, 2004. pp. 624-636. ISBN 80-200-1129-3
32
Kadeřábková, B.: Úvod do makroekonomie. Neoklasický přístup. 1. ed. Praha. C.H.Beck. 2003. ISBN 80-7179-788-X
114
Figure 2: Optimizing the choice between current and future consumption
Source: Kadeřábková, B.: Úvod do makroekonomie. Neoklasický přístup.
This approach assumes that domestic and foreign goods or financial assets are perfect substitutes and
the time period is long enough so that the exchange rate rebalances the goods market at full capacity
utilization. The country is a small open economy, so it overtakes a foreign interest rate, and between
countries there is the high capital mobility. If the mobility of capital is zero, then the savings equal to
domestic investment and businesses do not invest abroad. In the case of perfect capital mobility, the
companies can freely invest in foreign and domestic assets and savings may be saved and invested
abroad. Then it is possible to express the balance of payments as the difference between domestic
savings and investment. For example, if domestic investment exceeds domestic savings, the deficit
must be financed by imports of foreign investment (capital inflow), which leads to a current account
deficit. Conversely, if a country has higher savings rate than investment, these savings are transferred
abroad, where they are invested, the country records an outflow of capital and current account surplus.
This is the basic idea of the intertemporal approach to the Savings-Investment model.
The previous figure showed the behavior of consumers when deciding on current and future
consumption. It will now be discussed in more detail how the behavior and decision making between
savings and consumption affects the external balance. The relationship between savings and current
account deficit can be expressed by the following Figure 3.
Figure 3: Graph of profits from international trade - the level of savings and
investment
115
Source: Craighead, W.D.; Miller, N.C. The Causes of and Gains from Intertemporal Trade
With the growth of interest rates savings are rising and investment falling, which is expressed by the
slope of the curves. In a closed economy, the savings equals to investment (point A). In an open
economy, the rate of savings and investments will depend on the size of foreign interest rate (r*). If a
foreign interest rate is lower than the domestic one (rA), then domestic investors will borrow capital
abroad and domestic interest rate will decrease. Reduced interest rates will result in a decrease in
savings. Finally, the country records a net inflow of foreign capital and a current account deficit due to
the decline in savings and growth of current consumption (imports). This situation can be applied to
the Czech Republic. First we had a high level of imports and a high inflow of investment, now Czech
Republic records net exports and high income balance deficit.
The opposite situation occurs when the foreign interest rate is higher than domestic one. Then the costs
of current consumption are lower in the domestic economy and the country becomes a net exporter
(current account surplus) by a reduction in current consumption and increased savings and investment,
which flow also abroad.
Changes in savings may not be influenced only by the different interest rates in domestic and foreign
economy. For example, if an income and product of the country are temporarily below the permanent
level, consumer preferences will increase in favor to consumption or there is a deterioration of the state
budget in the economy, then this situation will reduce national savings. Figure 6 shows a shift of
savings to the left hand side. This means that at any level of interest rates savings will be lower. The
new equilibrium interest rate in a closed economy will be higher, leading to a re-increase in savings
and investment. In an open economy, higher interest rates will cause capital inflows to offset the
difference between savings and investments and interest rate returns to its original position. Due to
decline in saving and growth in consumption the economy records a current account deficit.
The same conclusion applies to the increased growth of marginal product of capital (a shift of
investment). The new equilibrium interest rate in a closed economy is higher and savings increase. In
an open economy, higher interest rate attracts foreign capital, which covers the difference between
domestic savings and investment. Growth in income and consumption will result in a current account
deficit.
Figure 4: Graph of profits from international trade - the shift of savings and investment curves
116
Source: Craighead, W.D.; Miller, N.C. The Causes of and Gains from Intertemporal Trade.
Once again it is important to stress that an important assumption of this model is the high capital
mobility. The country avoids having national savings and investment in the balance, because the
difference is compensated by foreign capital. Savings and investment are not in any mutual relation national savings correspond to international investment opportunities and domestic investment are
financed by foreign capital. Therefore increased investment may not be offset by increased domestic
savings. On the contrary, if there is a limited international mobility of capital in the country, then
increase in investment must be offset by decrease in consumption and government spending (and thus
increase in the savings) of the same size, the rate of national savings rate is similar to the domestic
investment rate and all savings are invested in the home economy. 33
For a long time the Czech Republic has been recording a trade deficit, which generated a negative
current account balance. At the same time the investment rate was higher than the country's savings
rate and this imbalance was financed by imports of capital. Now the savings rate is already far closer
to the investment rate and trade balance reaches a surplus that could finance a deteriorating balance of
income. This leads to the improving of the current account balance. This described relation can be
observed on Figure 5, which shows the development of savings, investment and current account in
relation to GDP in the Czech Republic.
33
Feldstein, M.; Horiok, C. Domestic Saving and Intgernational Capital Flows. Economic Journal, Vol. 90, 1980, pp. 314329
117
Figure 5: Development of the rate of savings, investment and current account (1995-2008)
Source: Czech statistical office, Czech national bank, self-prepared
From Figure 5 it is obvious that the share of the current account in GDP corresponds to the difference
between the rate of savings and investment. During the whole observed period this difference was
negative and also the current account recorded the deficit. The difference between the rate of savings
and investment has been decreasing as also current account decreases. The rate of savings and
investment have a declining trend, an important increase was recorded by the rate of saving in 2004
and 1005. In this period the rate of savings got closer to the rate of investment and since then their
difference has been very small. Simultaneously it is possible to observe the decrease of the current
account deficit at the same time. This decrease was caused by the improvement of the trade balance,
which has been in surplus since 2005 thanks to foreign direct investment. But it is not still able to
cover the deficit of the income balance. Therefore this deficit must be offset by foreign investment.
Derivation of the relation between savings and investment by means of national economic identity The relationship between current account and the difference between savings and investment
rates can be derived from a national economic identity. A detailed explanation of such relations is
given by Spěváček34 and Brada, Mandel and Tomšík35. From the balance of payments, it is clear that
the current account consists of balance of goods and services, the balance of income and current
transfers, which is shown in the following equation:
CA = NX + NI + NT
(1)
And because gross domestic product is formed, according to the expenditure approach, by final
consumption, gross capital and balance of goods and services, then the balance of goods and services
can be written using the following equation:
NX = Y – C - I,
(2)
The balance of goods and services in equation (1) can be replaced by equation (2)
34
Spěváček, V. Makroekonomická rovnováha české ekonomiky v letech 1995-2005. Politická ekonomie, 2006, No.6. pp.
742-761
35
Brada, J.C.; Mandel, M.; Tomšík, V. Intertemporální přístup k platební bilanci: Vztah míry úspor a míry investic
v bohatých, chudých a transformujících se ekonomikách. Politická ekonomie, 2008, No.2, pp.147-161
118
CA = Y – C – I + NI + NT.
(3)
Savings and consumption are parts of the gross national disposable income, which consists of gross
domestic product, balance of income and current transfers:
YD = Y + NI + NT = C + S
(4)
If we take the gross domestic product from equation (4) and replace it in equation (3) then it is possible
to express the current account as the difference between gross national disposable income and final
consumption and investment. Afterwards the simple derivation of the current account as the difference
of national savings and gross capital follows:
CA = YD – C – I = S – I
Explanation:
CA … current account
NX…. balance of goods and services
Y….. ..gross domestic product
C…. ...consumption (private and public)
I… …..gross capital
NI.…. .balance of income
NT…...current transfers
YD…..gross national disposable income
S …… gross national savings
S-I model for the Czech Republic
The next section will analyze the relation between the rate of investment and savings in the case of the
Czech Republic. With these two variables it is possible to draw implications for the capital mobility
and the current account of our country. Data for the analysis of the Czech Republic are quarterly for
the period from 1995 to 2009.
If the relation between the rate of national savings and domestic investment is very tight, then there is
low capital mobility in the country. Conversely, a low correlation of these two variables indicates a
high mobility of capital and countries may not have national savings and investment in balance, but the
difference is compensated by foreign capital. In this case, the country has a surplus or deficit of the
current account deficit. Feldstein36 examines the relation between the rate of national savings and
domestic investment rates using the following equation and its various modifications:
I/Y………….rate of domestic investment
S/Y…………rate of national savings
a……………constant
b……………regression coefficient
Constant a close to zero and coefficient b close to one indicate that the majority of domestic
investment is financed by national savings and capital mobility is very low. If, however, a is not zero
and coefficient b is very low, then the relation between domestic investment and national savings is
very weak and domestic investments are mainly financed by foreign capital.
In the case of the Czech Republic, the share of investment in GDP is higher than the share of national
savings in GDP. The current account is therefore in deficit. On Figure 6 it is possible to observe the
relation between investments and savings during the reporting period. The dotted line of 45° represents
such a situation when share of shares of savings and investment in GDP are equal, and therefore there
is also a balanced current account in the economy. Because the rate of investment is higher than the
rate of savings, most of points recording data for each quarter are situated above the 45° line,
indicating the current account deficit. Five values are below the 45° and represent the current account
36
Feldstein, M.; Bacchetta, P. National Saving and International Investment. National Saving and Economic Performance.
1991, pp. 201-226
119
surplus, which occurred in the first quarter of 2005 associated with a favorable trade balance during
the first months of the year.
Figure 6: Relation between the rate of domestic investment and national savings
Source: Eurostat, self-prepared
The values listed in the chart for each quarter can be plotted with a linear trend. Regression line has the
following equation:
p-Value (a)
p-Value (b)
R2
corr.
0.000
0.000
38.72 %
0.62
P-value is 0,000 for both constant and independent variable, which means that both are important for
explanation of the relation at the 99 % confidence level. The determination coefficient R2 is 38.72 %,
which indicates that the rate of national savings explains almost 40 % of variability of the rate of
investment. The correlation coefficient reaches 0.62 which indicates a relation between variables.
The regression equation has a low constant and a relatively high regression coefficient. These results
point to a specific, relatively significant relation between the rate of national savings and domestic
investment. This means that a large part of domestic investment is financed by national savings and
capital mobility is not entirely perfect, as it could be supposed in the case of small open economies.
For comparison, one more analysis was conducted, this time for the period from 2000 to 2009. The
data are same as in the previous case, but for a shorter period. The following regression equation was
obtained:
120
p-Value (a)
p-Value (b)
R2
corr.
0.000
0.000
24.50 %
0.50
Low levels of p-value for the constant and the independent variable show significant relation between
variables at 99 % confidence level. R2 (24.5%) and correlation coefficient (0.50) are lower than in the
previous case, suggesting a much weaker relation between investment and savings. This fact indicates
a lower value for the independent variable. Domestic investment is thus increasingly financed by
foreign capital which indicates that the Czech Republic has been recording higher capital mobility and
the country is more prone to external imbalances.
These equations representing the relation between the rate of savings and investment illustrate the
situation in the Czech Republic. Czech companies are not yet accustomed to borrow capital abroad.
Therefore, savings and investment must match each other, just when domestic savings constitute the
bulk of domestic investment. Gradually the situation is improving, the foreign capital in the Czech
Republic is becoming a very important additional source to the lack of domestic savings. It can be
presumed that the situation will improve even more and the tightness of the relation between national
savings and domestic investment will weaken.
Conclusion
The external equilibrium is a very important economic indicator assessing the situation and long-term
stability of the country in its international economic relations. If the country shows an external
balance, the economic transactions between the domestic and foreign entities are quite the same. If,
however, the inflows exceed significantly over outflows or vice versa, it is the external imbalance,
which can lead to significant economic problems and crises. The most commonly used indicator of
external balance is a limit of 5 %, which may not exceed the current account deficit in GDP. Czech
Republic meets this criterion except the period 2001-2004, when this criterion was slightly exceeded.
In recent years, however, the Czech Republic recorded a very positive development of external
balance.
The paper analyzed the development of the current account deficit of the Czech Republic with the help
of relation between national savings and domestic investment. This model says that if there is high
equilibrium, because the difference is easily compensated by foreign capital. The country's high
national savings can be used to finance overseas investments and vice versa. The country's lack of
savings in relation to domestic investment can be financed by foreign capital. In imperfect capital
mobility, the difference between savings and investments is very hard offset by foreign capital and
therefore the rate of national savings rate is similar to domestic investment and savings are invested in
the domestic economy.
During the observed period (1995-2009), the investment rate was higher than savings rate in line with
the current account deficit. When examining the relationship between savings and investment rates it
was found that there is a relatively strong dependence, which indicates limited capital mobility. This
finding is surprising, because in case of a small open economy the perfect capital mobility can be
rather assumed. The Czech Republic is likely considered as more risky than the developed OECD
countries and investors require a certain degree of risk premium. Gradually, however, this dependence
weakens and the Czech Republic has been increasing capital mobility and thus also prone to external
imbalances.
121
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A REVIEW OF THE MAIN CONCEPTS OF LUXURY CONSUMER
BEHAVIOR AND CONTEMPORARY MEANING OF LUXURY
Yana SHAMINA
Department of International Trade FMU VSE in Prague
[email protected], [email protected]
Introduction
Academics and practitioners started to pay more attention to the specifics of luxury sector.
During last decades it became clear that general economic principles and techniques are not efficient
enough when building or sustaining luxury product.
Pointing to the fact that there is a small number of the specialized literature and research works
devoted to this area, the main goal of this paper is to make the deep research on the topic by
incorporating existing scientific works. Nevertheless, the purpose of this research is to define specifics
of the luxury field in relation to consumer behavior, pricing strategies and identify modern definition
of luxury.
Definition of luxury
“Luxury brands have often been associated with the core competences of creativity,
exclusivity, craftsmanship, precision, high quality, innovation and premium pricing. These product
attributes give the consumers the satisfaction of not only owning expensive items but the extra-added
psychological benefits like esteem, prestige and a sense of a high status that reminds them and others
that they belong to an exclusive group of only a select few, who can afford these pricey items.”37
Producers of luxury brands target mostly affluent customers. These customers are more or less
price insensitive and eager to spend their time and money on products and services that provide extra
value and experience rather then that necessities do. Due to that, prestigious luxury brands for
centuries experienced great loyalty of their clients.
“Luxury brands hold a higher share of the market in product categories where the brand used
conveys social status and image. In many such categories-from apparel to pens-consumers may own
items for day-to-day use around the home and luxury brand equivalents for use outside the home.”38
For centuries there were clear differences between social classes. The consumption of luxury
was the privilege of the elite society, thus clearly defining borders of luxury. Simply, something that
the poorer classes could not have was identified as luxury.
“Originally, luxury was the visible result – deliberately conspicuous and ostentatious – of
hereditary social stratification (kings, priests and the nobility, versus the gentry and commoners).
Aristocrats had to show their inherited rank to the crowds: ostentatious spending was a social
obligation for the aristocrats, even the least well off. On the other hand, social distance was preserved:
the rich Bourgeois were not allowed to dress like aristocrats.”39
Nowadays, it is very difficult to identify what is luxury because of the new global tendencies.
Increasing “democratization” of luxury resulted in introduction of several new categories within the
luxury segment – accessible (affordable) luxury and masstige luxury. These categories were created to
target the aspiring middle class.
The transformation of the idea of luxury was needed to adapt to the global changes.
“Globalization is inexorably conquering the world, that is to say, a materialistic and fluid society in
which any kind of transcendent social stratification has disappeared. Each person in a democratic
OKONKWO, U., Redefining the luxury concept
NUENO, J. L., QUELCH, J., The mass marketing of luxury, Business Horizons, 1998
39
KAPFERER, J.-N., BASTIEN, V., The specificity of luxury management: Turning marketing upside
down, Brand Management, 16
37
38
124
world has even chances of succeeding: one makes one’s own destiny through work. This much more
fluid and open world.”40
Michel Chevalier and Gerald Mazzalovo in their book “Luxury brand management: A world of
privilege” identified luxury brand as “one that is selective and exclusive, and which has an additional
creative and emotional value for the consumer.”41
The economists define luxury products as products for which demand increases more than
proportionally as income rises. Thus, producers of luxury products have to constantly justify a high
price, which is much higher than other products or services with similar functions and characteristics.
Coco Chanel once stated that “Luxury is a necessity that begins where necessity ends.”
“The truth is that we don’t need luxury goods to survive as human beings, but we need luxury
goods to fuel the sensations that contribute to our overall appreciation of ourselves and our lives”42
Theoretical concepts of luxury consumer behavior and motives to buy luxury
To understand the nature of luxury, it is important to look at the luxury theoretical roots. In this
work main researches on luxury are presented. It is important to analyze all the previous findings as
they give a clear picture on the changing character of the luxury, and therefore the luxury consumer
preferences and the overall preferences of the society.
Over the years, the motives to buy luxury were changing and the marketers of luxury goods
had to adapt their marketing strategies to reflect the trend.
Main visible changes were done in the sphere of marketing communications. The values that
were important for luxury customers were changing, thus the advertising messages and communication
tools were adapted accordingly.
Research on the evolution of the motives and values of luxury is very important as it shows the
fundamental analysis and core components of the luxury. It reflects the changing face of the luxury
and the society but also it shows the values that stay prior for ages.
Veblen goods and conspicuous consumption
Some luxury products have been claimed to be examples of Veblen goods, therefore the
significant part of this research will be devoted to understanding and explanation of the nature of
Veblen goods.
Veblen goods are those goods with the positive relations between demand and price for them
(the demand increases together with the price rise). For this type of goods the low price may be
associated with low quality and might reduce demand. On the other hand, the increase in price may
increase the status and exclusivity of the products.
This is the complete contradictions to the law of demand, where the demand curve is almost
always represented as downward-sloping, meaning that as price decreases, consumers will buy more of
the good.
Thorstein Veblen was the first one who pointed out and explained the concept of Veblen goods
in his work ”The Theory of the Leisure Class” (1899).
In the scope of this research the important concept of the conspicuous consumption should be
highlightened.
This term was also introduced in 1899 by economist Thorstein Veblen in his book “The Theory
of the Leisure class”. Conspicuous consumption was used to describe the behavior to show power and
wealth by the new rich as a new society class, which became wealthy during Second Industrial
Revolution in 19th century.
40
Ibid
CHEVALIER, M., MAZZALOVO, G., Luxury brand management: A world of privilege, Wiley,
2008, Introduction
42
OKONKWO, U., Luxury fashion branding, Palgrave Macmillan, 2007, p.7
41
125
“Veblen (1899) introduced the idea that conspicuous spending is useful as a costly signal of
wealth. Poorer people, for whom conspicuous spending is more costly in foregone private
consumption, signal a lower wealth level. Rich people consume more conspicuous goods to publicly
establish their higher wealth level. Observers then distinguish the rich from the poor. The idea of
conspicuous consumption is simple, intuitive, and powerful.”43
The dynamic and changing nature of the consumer behavior requires the adequate reflection of
the theoretical background, especially in the case of luxury goods, where the specific concepts should
be implemented.
“Veblen (1899) laid down the foundations of conspicuousness consumption with the “The
theory of leisure class”. However, that period was more homogeneous with context where luxury
goods were mostly the fruits of craftsmanship, expensive and affordable only by the most wealthy and
affluent. Social emaluation consisted of gaining status by displaying wealth or at least pretending to
own it. Today, however, the ever increasing emergence of new luxury goods brings higher quality and
value products to the masses, making the visual barriers between the rich and the modest hazier”44
“Economists’ lack of interest in new approaches to consumption largely reflects the rigidity of
the conventional economic theory of consumer behavior. That theory, of course, assumes that
consumers come to the market with well-defined, insatiable desires for private goods and services;
those desires are not affected by social interactions, culture, economic institutions, or the consumption
choices or well-being of others. Only prices, incomes, and personal tastes affect consumption-and
since tastes are exogenous to neoclassical economics, there is little point about anything but prices and
incomes”.45
The concept of the conspicuous consumption is explicitly describing the nature of the luxury
customers and their intentions to buy luxury. The luxury consumers are desperate to prove their power,
affirm a status and be more self-confident by conspicuously consuming the most famous and accepted
brands among the already rich.
Liebenstein analysis of luxury consumption behavior
Harvey Liebenstein (1950) in his work “Bandwagon, snob, and Veblen effects in the theory of
consumers’ demand” enriched Veblen’s conspicuous consumption by incorporation of snob and
bandwagon effects.
“The demand for consumers’ goods and services may be classified according to motivation.
A: Functional
B: Nonfunctional
1. External effects on utility
a) Bandwagon effect
b) Snob effect
c) Veblen effect
2. Speculative
3. Irrational46
Liebenstein analyzed external effects that influence the consumer demand. His findings showed
the role of interpersonal effects on the demand of prestige brands and were summarized into three
43
HALL, J., LI, H., Why isn’t conspicuous consumption more conspicuous?, Harvard University, 2007
TROUNG, Y., SIMMONS, G., MCCOLL, R., KITCHEN, P., Status and conspicuousness – are they
related? Strategic marketing implications of luxury brands, Journal of Strategic Marketing (2008), 16
45
ACKERMAN, F., Consumed in Theory: Alternative Perspectives on the Economics of
Consumption, Journal of Economic Issues, no.3 ,1997
46
LEIBENSTEIN, H., Bandwagon, Snob, and Veblen Effects in the Theory of Consumers' Demand,
Quarterly Journal of Economics (1950), 64(2)
44
126
main effects: snob effect, bandwagon effect and Veblen effect. Results presented the specificity of
motivations that drive consumers when they buy prestige or luxury products.
“Income versus culture”47
Bernard Dubois and Patrick Duquesne in their work “The market for luxury goods: Income
versus culture” studied the influence of income and culture on the demand of luxury products. It is
important to understand the nature of the consumer intentions and build adequate marketing strategy.
As luxury products sometimes have high price without any functional or practical justification
and clients of luxury come from the wealthy classes, authors assumed that “income is the best, if not
the only, indicator of measuring demand.”48
On the other hand, authors argued that income is not the only one indicator that influences the
purchase of the luxury product. They stated that culture plays the similar role in the buying process. By
incorporation of the previous findings and own research, authors showed that “there is a strong link
between a positive attitude towards cultural change and consumption of luxury. This indicates that
many people buy such goods for what they symbolize. This is consistent with the hedonic consumption
and extended self-personality models, according to which purchasing luxury goods represents an
extreme from of expressing one’s values”. 49
Comparing with the previous analysis of Liebenstein “Bandwagon, snob, and Veblen effects in
the theory of consumers’ demand” (1950) which emphasized the importance of the interpersonal effect
on the purchasing behavior, Dubois and Duquesne introduced the hedonic, personal effect on the
demand for luxury goods.
Conceptual framework of prestige-seeking consumer behavior (PSCB)
Frank Vigneron and Lester W. Johnson studied the topic of brand prestige. Authors
incorporated into their PSCB framework both interpersonal and personal effects that were analyzed
previously by researchers. They identified and put together five values of prestige with five relevant
motivations.
Figure 1 (Source: 50):
VALUES
MOTIVATIONS
Conspicuous
Veblenian
Unique
Snob
Social
Bandwagon
Emotional
Hedonist
Quality
Perfectionist
The model shows the balance between personal motives (hedonist and perfectionist motives)
analyzed by Dubois combined with traditional interpersonal motives (Veblen, snob and bandwagon
motives).
While Veblen, snob and bandwagon effects were discussed earlier in this work, the special
attention will be given to the hedonist and perfectionist effects.
DUBOIS, B., DUQUESNE, P., The market for luxury goods: Income versus culture, European
Journal of Marketing, (1993), 27
48
Ibid
49
Ibid
50
VIGNERON, F., JOHNSON, L., A review and a conceptual framework of prestige-seeking
consumer behavior, Academy of Marketing Science Review (1999), 1
47
127
Hedonist effect – consumers that are interested in hedonist effect are more interested in their
own feelings and luxury for them provides intangible benefits. Price is not the main indicator of
prestige.
On the other hand, perfectionist effect is important for consumers who value the quality that
luxury products offer and high price they associate with the higher quality.
Figure 2:
Source: 51
“Vigneron and Johnson developed a framework of ‘prestige-seeking consumer behavior’. This
prestige-seeking framework was originally inspired by the conceptual work of Mason, who developed
a framework of status seeking behavior to explain consumers’ behavior in relation to luxury brands.
His conceptual framework mostly focused on the interpersonal effects associated with this behavior. In
contrast, Vigneron and Johnson’s framework included personal aspects such as hedonist and
perfectionist motives inspired from the work of Dubois and Laurent, as well as the more usual
interpersonal aspects (snob-bery, conspicuousness and bandwagon motives) inherited from Liebenstein
and Mason.”52
In their next study “Measuring perceptions of brand luxury” (2004) authors broaden their
model by changing the terminology “prestige-seeking behavior” to “luxury”.
Figure 3:
Luxury-seeking consumer behavior framework
VIGNERON, F., JOHNSON, L., A review and a conceptual framework of prestige-seeking
consumer behavior, Academy of Marketing Science Review (1999), 1
52
VIGNERON, F., JOHNSON, L., Measuring perceptions of brand luxury, Brand Management
(2004), 2
51
128
Source: 53
“The term ‘luxury’ in this context is more inclusive in the sense that it includes both personal
and interpersonal aspects. While prestige or status consumption involves purchasing a higher priced
product to embelish one’s ego, luxury consumption involves purchasing a product that represents value
to both the individual and vis a` vis significant others.”54
This work broadens all the existing researches on luxury and attitudes towards its concept. The
model is useful when building, positioning and maintaining luxury brand.
Further research should be highlightened on the importance of separation between status
and conspicuous consumption. It was done by Y. Troung, G. Simmons, R. McColl and P. Kitchen in
their work “Status and Conspicuousness – Are they related?”.
“The findings suggest a difference in how consumers perceive brands in terms of the
constructs of status and conspicuousness within the new luxury market reference point of this research.
Therefore, it appears that it is inaccurate to consider these two dimensions as a single entity, as
postulated in the current branding literature (Vigneron & Johnson, 2004). Some individuals purchase
luxury brands to gain status both internally (improving self-respect and self-esteem) and externally
(others’ approval and envy). Others purchase luxury brands to gain status primarily for external
motives such as how others perceive them. Buying and using luxury brands for conspicuous reasons is
more a matter of image and appearance.”55
This “showing” behavior is mostly common and important for people that are not that rich, for
instance in the emerging markets. It is used more widely and not only referring to rich people but also
to the middle class representatives whose decisions to buy products of famous luxury brands are
mainly driven by showing status, not by enjoying the utility and benefits of the product itself.
Discreet consumption
In the luxury business there is recently emerged trend called conspicuous non-consumption.
The main idea of conspicuous non-consumption is that customers, who are coming from very rich
families and have been luxury consumers for ages, do not have to show and prove their wealth and
tend to dress with less brand visibility and drive less expensive cars.
Ibid
Ibid
55
TROUNG, Y., SIMMONS, G., MCCOLL, R., KITCHEN, P., Status and consciousness – are they
related? Strategic marketing implications of luxury brands, Journal of Strategic Marketing (2008), 16
53
54
129
Therefore, signaling behavior is not more conspicuous. Of course, the level of consumption
and status is present but these customers tend to buy luxury products more for enjoyment and to feel
more comfortable about them without proving anything to anybody. This is the behavior of people
who have more money and know how to spend.
There is an interesting research which was done at the Harvard University by J. Hall and H. Li
on the topic “Why isn’t conspicuous consumption more conspicuous?”. The main idea was that
discreet consumption signals social status in addition to wealth. In their model authors tried to show
why people choose to consume Veblen goods discreetly, and why conspicuous consumption is
associated with a lower class while discreet consumption is seen as a signal of elite status.
Authors explained that “people care about their reputation for wealth and social status in
addition to their consumption. Wealthy but low-status representatives consume conspicuously because
discreet consumption is too costly in does not reflect wealth signaling. Agents who are wealthy and
high-status consume discreetly, to separate themselves from those with low social status. Casual
observation suggests that much of what we attribute to conspicuous consumption is not maximally
conspicuous, while the simplest theory of conspicuous consumption unambiguously predicts that,
holding price constant, the more conspicuous a consumption good the better. Expensive hand-wrought
silverware only signals wealth to dinner guests. Someone who wishes to signal his wealth in as clear a
fashion as possible can do better, instead, some people buy Patek Philippe watches while others buy
more conspicuous Rolexes. We define discreet consumption to be conspicuous consumption that is not
maximally conspicuous.”56
The research showed that there are two different types of consumption: conspicuous
consumption and discreet consumption. Conspicuous consumption can be seen by all observers, while
discreet consumption can only be seen by observers within the social circle of the consumer.
Authors tried to understand the nature of the discreet consumption. “This then allows wealthy
agents with high social status to separate from wealthy low-status agents by consuming discreetly. For
such an agent, the gain in utility due to observers in his social circle perceiving that he has high social
status outweighs the loss due to observers outside their social circle perceiving him to be of low
wealth.”57
Due to that separation in consumption, different marketing strategies should be implemented.
Also the design, style and type of products will be adapted to different audiences.
Lessons for luxury marketers
The deep research on the motives for consumers to purchase luxury showed the evolution of
the luxury consumer over the years. Moreover, these finding are a great help for luxury marketers to
adapt their strategies to different audience and to carefully position their brands. Presented analysis
identifies different luxury consumer groups with different buying motives. Authors separate not only
personal and interpersonal motives for buying luxury but researches go further and reflect the changing
environment thus the changing behavior of luxury consumer – discreet consumption. These findings
can be interpreted as a luxury values that are important for different customers groups.
These consumer profiles must be reflected in differentiation of products. Nevertheless,
advertising strategies must be implemented accordingly. The marketing communications campaigns
and advertising messages can be changed reflecting and emphasizing various values and stress on the
core competences of the luxury brand.
Pricing luxury
Luxury goods differ from normal goods in a way that they satisfy not just physical needs, but
also emotional, social needs such as exclusiveness, status. This is the crucial point to understand, when
56
57
Ibid
130
deciding about the pricing decisions. A lot of literature and practice about luxury points the potential
danger to sell less if the price is too low.
“To live in luxury you have to be above others… By increasing prices, you lose the bad
customers, but now you suddenly become dazzling attractive to people who would previously not have
given you a second glance."58
In a luxury business different values play primer role then just a low price. The conspicuous
goods, the exclusiveness of the brand, highly controlled distribution channels and experience that
customer receives with purchasing the product or service. These are the crucial points that identify
luxury.
Many academics and practitioners have found the presence of two completely different needs
in the society among consumers: uniqueness and conformity. These findings showed that there is a
direct relationship between the need and the price, charged for the product. For example, in case
customers seek the uniqueness from the purchased good, the low price unlikely will play the positive
role. Therefore, when the price is high, the value of the product also increases. On the other hand,
conspicuous consumers, who look for conformity, value the product more as the number of the
customers, consuming it, increases.
In a luxury field, the self expression, status and heritage, have been the important means to
influence the customer, as well as they served as a description of the social and psychological
underpinnings for consumers behavior.
Several research works were done to understand relation between the uniqueness of the product
and its price. There is an interesting research on the topic of “Pricing of conspicuous goods” by W.
Amaldoss and S. Jain, where authors developed an analytical model which describes the influence of
the social aspect on consumer behavior and how it reflects in a company’s prices, profits and market
shares.
It is important to highlight this research within the scope of this paper as it extends the
traditional economic model of consumer decision by introducing the concept of uniqueness and
conformity and provides more useful insights on the conspicuous consumption.
Research presents two competing firms that try to satisfy two segments of customers. Authors
took the assumption that one segment of consumer’s desires uniqueness and therefore the value of the
product decreases with the increasing number of people who bought this product – snobs. And on the
other hand, consumers within other segment value conformity, thus the value of the product becomes
more significant together with the increased number of customers who bought this product –
conformists.
The analysis confirms the assumption presented earlier, that snobs are likely to buy more
product when the price rises, which leads to higher prices and therefore to higher profit for the
company.
"We find that, in general, snobs buy a higher quality product despite their desire for uniqueness
and not because of it. Further, firms producing conspicuous products may sometimes find it beneficial
to downplay the functional differences between their products, since highlighting functional
differences can lead to increased price competition and a decline in firm’s profits. The experimental
results provide strong support for a key prediction of the model: more snobs buy a product as its price
increases.”59
The theoretical and empirical analysis showed the proof of some assumptions about
conspicuous consumption.
“We show that in a market comprised of snobs and conformists, demand among snobs could
increase as the price of a product increases. However, the demand among conformists, as well as the
total market demand would decrease as price rises. The intuition for this result is that snobs prefer a
down, Brand Management (2009), vol.16
59
AMALDOSS, A., JAIN, S. Pricing of conspicuous consumption, 2004
58
131
higher priced product if they expect the overall demand to be lower at the higher price, and such an
expectation will be rational only if the conformists have a downward-sloping demand curve. Hence, in
a market comprised of either only snobs or conformists the demand curve is downward-sloping. It is
useful to note that our result does not rely on signaling either product quality or wealth of consumers.”
Pricing of the luxury products should be done very carefully. Producers of luxury products for
ages enjoy the inadequate high prices although they must be very careful when setting the price. Too
low price can harm the overall exclusivity and unique image and sometimes attract not desirable
customers.
Contemporary meaning of luxury
Luxury is difficult to define. There are many researchers nowadays, who are working within
luxury field and try to find the main characteristics of luxury. Therefore, this part of the work will
present the different opinions on luxury given by contemporary marketing professionals and will try to
analyze the modern meaning of luxury.
Professor Bernard Dubois identified the paradox of luxury goods and said that it is important in
luxury to do the opposite from the traditional marketing theory:
The paradox of luxury-goods marketing
High price
High cost
Craftsmanship
Limited distribution
Low promotional activity
Advertising with no sophisticated copy strategy60
Nevertheless, “Professor Bernard Dubois defines ‘luxury’ as a specific (i.e. higher priced) tier
of offer in almost any product or service category.”61 Which is an arguable statement as it is more
related to the definition of the premium brands which are the more expensive items of the mass
variants of products. The main justification for the premium prices is quality and increased
functionality, which is not always the case of luxury products.
Jean-Noël Kapferer, the worldwide expert on brand management and luxury marketing, in his
work “The specificity of luxury management: Turning marketing upside down”, presented several
points on nature of luxury:
Recreating social distance. Luxury is a social marker. With luxury recreating some
degree of social stratification, people in a democracy are therefore free – within the limit of their
financial means – to use any of its components to define themselves socially as they wish.
The DNA of luxury is the symbolic desire to belong to a superior class, which everyone
will have chosed according to their dreams, because anything that can be a social signifier can become
luxury.
Luxury for others. The codes of luxury are cultural. Money is not enough to define
luxury goods: it is only measures the wealth of the buyer. But money is not a measure of taste. Luxury
converts the raw material that is money into culturally sophisticated products that is social
stratification.
Hedonism takes precedence over functionality. Luxury should have a very strong
personal and hedonistic component, otherwise it is no longer luxury but simple snobbery.
Luxury is qualitative not quantitative.
Multi-sensory and experience.
Luxury, whether object or service, must have a strong human content (handmade and
exclusive service).
2008, p.14
60
61
Wikipedia.com
132
Michel Chevalier and Gerald Mazzalovo in their book “Luxury brand management: A world of
privilege” identified luxury brand as “one that is selective and exclusive, and which has an additional
creative and emotional value for the consumer.”62 Authors define their own critical criteria, which
luxury goods must satisfy:
Strong artistic content. A luxury good is an “object” not merely a “product” that has
always been submitted to a profound and sophisticated aesthetic-research process. Luxury should
generate a perception of beauty and have an aesthetic appeal.
Craftsmanship – customers buy products designed by Giorgio Armani or Karl
Lagerfeld, even if the products are mass-manufactured.
International aspect. In the luxury business, it is almost essential to have a presence in
the world’s most fashionable cities. Thus, to have international profile, but with a discernible national
character.
Uche Okonkwo, the business strategy consultant in the luxury industry, in her book “Luxury
fashion branding” supported the growing meaning of the luxury in the society, introduced earlier by
Jean-Noël Kapferer, and stated that “fashion is not only a matter of clothes and accessories but also
highly influential in structuring society’s culture, identity and lifestyle. Luxury fashion even goes
further to reinforce the evolution and voice of society. In this generation where image underlies every
aspect of our lives, luxury brands have gained more prominence and are affecting the daily lives of
both consumers and non-consumers on a greater level.”63
Furthermore, Uche Okonkwo presented 10 core characteristics of a true luxury brand:
1.
Innovative, creative, unique and appealing products
2.
Consistent delivery of premium quality
3.
Exclusivity in goods production
4.
Tightly controlled distribution
5.
A heritage of craftsmanship
6.
A distinct brand identity
7.
A global reputation
8.
Emotional appeal
9.
Premium pricing
10.
High visibility64
To summarize the finding of the luxury professionals – premium pricing is the first component
which identifies and builds the borders for luxury. Which is likely to be initial, economic and the most
easy to define characteristic of luxury products.
For Michel Chevalier and Gerald Mazzalovo, strong artistic content was one of the critical
factors of luxury. Nevertheless, Uche Okonkwo identified the luxury products as innovative, creative,
unique and appealing products.
All the authors agreed on the importance of the strong human content. Therefore, such
important aspects as heritage of craftsmanship, premium quality, exclusive service and experience, the
dominant role of quality over quantity are identified.
Uche Okonkwo, Michel Chevalier and Gerald Mazzalovo pointed the valuable component
such as international presence and global reputation with the tightly controlled distribution. In luxury
business, the presence in all the major fashion and business cities is a must to create the international
profile and visibility of the brand. But on the other hand it is important to maintain the national
character of the brand.
“When a Canadian buys an Italian or French luxury object that he highly values, he expects the
product to be as highly valued by French, Japanese or Chinese purchasers of luxury goods. When a
French man or woman walks along Madison Avenue or 57th Street in New York, they may make a
2008 Introduction
63
64
62
133
mental note of the French brands that have a well-located store and feel a sense of pride. But if these
visitors notice the absence of a Kenzo or Givenchy outlet, say, then they may deduce that those brands
are less highly valued in New York and may consequently value them less highly as well.”65
More and more specialists identify that the hedonistic component is winning its part in the
luxury decision making process. Luxury consumers simply buy for their own satisfaction but not to
show their wealth or to consume the mainstream luxury products just because it is fashionable at the
moment.
During the analysis, the other interesting aspect emerged. There is a growing influence of
luxury as a social marker. Even though we live in a democratic world, there is a need for a structure
and the luxury might be the instrument that draws the boundaries for people to recognize their social
status. Jean-Noël Kapferer presented the deep analysis of this phenomenon.
With the global change in the consumer preferences and behavior, marketers of luxury products
need to adapt their strategies to the world tendencies to satisfy their consumers. The analysis of the
recent literature on the luxury marketing and luxury products shows the new emerging aspects of
luxury. These aspects start to play the main role in the decision making process of the consumer and
the perception of luxury by the society.
Conclusion
Presented research demonstrates the importance of the deep analysis of the consumer behavior,
pricing strategies within the luxury segment. Moreover, it shows the recent changes of the role of
luxury in society. Mainly, the growing influence of luxury as a social marker.
The dynamic and changing nature of the consumer behavior requires the adequate reflection of
the theoretical background, especially in case of luxury goods, where the specific concepts should be
implemented. Therefore, the main concepts are presented to broaden the traditional views of luxury
consumer’s behavior such as conspicuous consumption.
The research on the motives for consumers to purchase luxury showed the evolution of the
luxury consumer over the years. Moreover, these finding are a great help for luxury marketers to adapt
their strategies to different consumer groups and to carefully position their brands.
The main contribution of this paper is to analyze the fundamental theoretical roots on luxury
consumer behavior and motives to buy luxury. Nevertheless, the changing environment and
economical situation require the adjustment of the main concepts and theories. The first step was done
by the analyzing the contemporary marketing publications in luxury sector.
2008 Introduction
65
134
References:
ACKERMAN, F., Consumed in Theory: Alternative Perspectives on the Economics of Consumption,
Journal of Economic Issues, no.3, 1997
AMALDOSS, A., JAIN, S. Pricing of conspicuous consumption, 2004
CHEVALIER, M., MAZZALOVO, G., Luxury brand management: A world of privilege, Wiley, 2008
DUBOIS, B., DUQUESNE, P., The market for luxury goods: Income versus culture, European Journal
of Marketing, (1993), 27
GRAVELLE, H., REES, R. Microeconomics, London and New York, 2 ed, 1992. ISBN 0582-023866
HEATH, J., Thorstein Veblen and American social criticism, University of Toronto
down, Brand Management, 16
LEIBENSTEIN, H., Bandwagon, Snob, and Veblen Effects in the Theory of Consumers' Demand,
Quarterly Journal of Economics (1950), 64(2)
NICHOLSON, W., Microeconomic Theory: Basic Principles and Extensions, 8th ed. Thomson
Learning 2002, ISBN 0-03-0333593-0
NUENO, J. L., QUELCH, J., The mass marketing of luxury, Business Horizons, 1998
OKONKWO, U., Luxury fashion branding, Palgrave Macmillan, 2007, ISBN-13 978-0-230-52167-4
OKONKWO, U., Redefining the luxury concept
SHAMINA, Y., Consumer behavior and pricing strategies in the luxury field, Proceedings VSE
Prague 2011
SHAMINA, Y., Influence of economic crises on marketing of luxury products, in Impact of financial
crises on the International Business, Proceedings VSE Prague 2010
TROUNG, Y., SIMMONS, G., MCCOLL, R., KITCHEN, P., Status and conspicuousness – are they
related? Strategic marketing implications of luxury brands, Journal of Strategic Marketing
(2008), 16
VIGNERON, F., JOHNSON, L., A review and a conceptual framework of prestige-seeking consumer
behavior, Academy of Marketing Science Review (1999), 1
VIGNERON, F., JOHNSON, L., Measuring perceptions of brand luxury, Brand Management (2004),
2
135
L’ÉQUILIBRE INTERNE DES NOUVEAUX ETATS MEMBRES
DE L’UE METTANT L’ACCENT SUR LA CRISE MONDIALE 66
The Internal Balance of the EU-New Member States
with focus on the Global Crisis
Ilya BOLOTOV
Doctorant à la Chère du commerce international
L’Université d’Economie de Prague
[email protected]
Résumé :
La crise financière et économique mondiale (2007–2010) a influencé l’Union européenne de façon significative
en causant une récession dans ses pays membres.
Le but de cet article est donc d’évaluer l’impact de la crise sur l’équilibre interne des nouveaux Etats membres
de l’UE.
L’article est divisée en trois parties principales: la définition de la notion « l’équilibre interne » et la description
des facteurs qui renforcent ou affaiblissent l’impact d’une crise sur l’économie nationale ; l’analyse du
développement à long terme des NEM ; l’examination de la situation pendant la crise, des prévisions pour le
future et du rôle de l’euro.
Mots clés : équilibre interne, crise, structure du flux des capitaux étranger, monnaie unique
Abstract:
The global financial and economic crisis (2007–2010) has significantly influenced the European Union leading
to a downturn in its members countries.
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the crisis on the internal balance of the new member states of
the EU.
The paper is divided into three main parts: he definition of the notion “internal balance” and description of the
factors which strengthen or weaken the impact of the crisis on the national economy; the analysis of the
development of the NMS in the long run; and the examination of the situation during the crisis, of the
predictions for the future and of the role of the Euro.
Key words: internal balance, crisis, structure of foreign capital inflows, single currency
Introduction
La crise financière et économique mondiale (2007–2010)67 a influencé l’Union européenne de façon
significative en mettant ses Etats membres en récession. Cependant, l’impact de la crise sur les
différents pays n’étaient pas le même et les vieux et les nouveaux membres de l’UE ont connu des
problèmes divergents.
Dans cet article nous nous concentrons sur les nouveaux Etats membres (NEM) de l’UE qui ont adhéré
à l’ Union à partir l’année 2004en essayant d’atteindre les objectifs suivants :
•
Evaluer l’impact de la crise financière et économique mondiale sur l’équilibre interne des NEM de l’UE ; 66
Cet article a été élaboré dans le cadre du projet de recherche « Ekonomická rovnováha nových členských zemí EU
v období krize aneb euro jako možný stabilizační prvek regionu? », IGS VŠE v Praze n° F2/15/2010.
67
Certains économistes, p. ex. Porter (2009), excluent la crise hypotéquière américaine (Subprime Mortgage Crisis) de la
crise financière et économique mondiale. Selon eux la crise mondiale a commencé après la chute de Lehman Brothers, le
septembre 2008 (cf. Figure n°4). Cependant, dans cet article nous utilisons l’ approche de Gaïdar et ali (2009) qui l’y
incluent.
136
•
Vérifier si la monnaie unique a aidé les cinq NEM ‐ membres de la zone euro à surmonter la crise plus facilement. L’article complète de l’aspect de l’équilibre interne la recherche Čajka (2010) et Gajdušková (2010)
publiée sur la première conférence Prague – Lyon, le 24.06.2010.
L’article est divisée en quatre parties : la définition de la notion « l’équilibre interne » et la description
des facteurs qui renforcent ou affaiblissent l’impact d’une crise sur l’économie nationale et suivi par la
description des méthodes utilisés, par l’analyse du développement à long terme des nouveaux Etats
membres en soulignant les aspects important, et, finalement, par l’examination de la situation pendant
la crise, des prévisions pour l’année 2011 et le future et du rôle de la monnaie unique.
Dans l’article nous partons des données officielles publiées par l’Office statistique de l’Union
européenne (Eurostat), par la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) et par les banques centrales
nationales des NEM. L’autre source des informations sont les articles des auteurs : Milea, C., Glod, A.
G., Lupu, I. et Criste, A. (2010), Lazový, P. et Slovakova, V. (2009) , Coudert, V. Et Pouvelle, C.
(2010), Koyama, Y. (2010) et Mandel, M. (2000).
I.
L’équilibre interne et l’influence d’une crise extérieure : approche théorétique
Vu les problèmes récents de plusieurs pays en et hors Union européenne, nous utilisons une définition
élargie de l’équilibre interne dans cet article.
I.1.
La définition de l’équilibre interne
Le Dictionnaire Oxford d’Economie (en angl. Oxford Dictionary of Economics ; Black, 2003) donne
décrit l’équilibre interne de la façon suivante: « La situation où le niveau d’activité dans une économie
est conforme à un taux d’inflation stable. Pour les niveaux d’activité plus élevés l’inflation a tendance
à s’accroître, et pour les niveaux plus bas le chômage est inutilement élevé. L’un des objectifs de la
politique macroéconomique est donc de maintenir l’équilibre interne. ».
Nous exprimons cet équilibre comme la stabilité relative (c.-à-d. les variations faibles dans
le temps) des cinq indicateurs : trois indicateurs « classiques » mentionnés ci-dessus 68
Indicateurs « classiques » :
Taux de croissance du PIB (Produit intèrieur brut)
Taux d’inflation
Taux de chômage
Indication
g, %
π, %
u, %
et deux indicateurs « supplémentaires » devenus importants après l’apparition des problèmes
économiques aux Etats-Unis et dans quelques autres pays (en Islande, en Russie, en Lettonie etc.) et
de la crise de la dette européenne : la situation dans les pays PIGS / GIPS / PIIGS : en Grèce, en
Irelande, en Italie, en Espagne et au Portugal). 69
Indicateurs « supplémentaires » :
Dette privée en pourcentage du PIB
Dette publique en pourcentage du PIB
Indication
pd, %
gd, %
Une dégradation rapide ou / et durable de tous ou d’une partie de ces indicateurs évoquée par une
crise externe peut être considérée comme un signe des problèmes de l’équilibre interne.
68
Ces indicateurs font partie de plusieurs modèles économiques : le « carré magique » construit selon certains auteurs par
Karl Schiller, le ministre fédéral de l’Economie d’Allemagne d’Ouest et puis celui des Finances, et selon les autres par
l’économiste britannique post-keynésien Nicholas Kaldor ; l’indice de la misère (la somme du taux de chômage et du taux
d’inflation), la courbe de Phillips, la loi d’Okun etc.
69
Tous ces pays sont membres de la zone euro et dès printemps 2010 connaissent des difficultés plus importantes que les
autres pays de l’union monétaire. Pour les aider, la zone euro avec le Fonds monétaire international ont crée le 10.10.2010
un fonds de 750 milliards d’euro, dont en avril 2011 profitent la Grèce, l’Irelande et le Portugal. L’Italie et l’Espagne n’ont
pas encore recouru à ces moyens.
137
I.2.
Les facteurs d’influence
La définition permet de distinguer trois groupes de facteurs qui peuvent renforcer ou affaiblir l’impact
d’une crise importée (p. ex. une crise mondiale) 70 sur l’économie : la propension au risque des agents
économiques, l’ouverture de l’économie et la politique de gouvernement.
Facteurs internes : la propension au risque de s’endetter des agents économiques 71
Ce groupe des facteurs ne transmet pas la crise dans l’économie nationale, mais peuvent renforcer son
influence de façon significative.
- La propension des entreprises et des ménages à s’endetter. Une propension élevée peut accélérer
l’inflation avant la crise et aggraver la récession suivante de façon significative en évoquant un plus
grand nombre des faillites, entre autres des institutions financières, un chômage plus élevé, une
faiblesse de la demande interne et une augmentation de la dette privée et ensuite publique dans le cas
de sauvegarde des entreprises en difficultés.
•
La volonté à s’endetter peut également être suscitée par des taux d’intérêt bas à long terme dans le cadre d’une politique macroéconomique favorisant la croissance. - La propension du gouvernement à s’endetter. Les problèmes fiscaux avant la crise peuvent empêcher
le gouvernement de mettre en œuvre les mesures anti-crise nécessaires et entraîner l’exode des
capitaux étrangers sous risque de défaut de paiement (de l’Etat). L’augmentation suivante des impôts
ralentirait la croissance après la reprise de l’activité.
•
Les causes de ces difficultés peuvent résider dans la politique de l’Etat‐providence et dans les problèmes du système de retraite causés par le vieillissement de la population. Facteurs liés à l’extérieur : l’ouverture de l’économie
Ces facteurs constituent les « canaux » d’influence d’une crise sur l’économie du pays. Leur
importance dépend du degré de son ouverture.
- L’ouverture au commerce extérieur. Selon l’approche des dépenses (comptabilité nationale) les
exportations et les importations font partie du Produit intérieur brut (PIB) d’une économie de marché
mesuré aux prix du marché : 72
où
est la consommation finale des ménages et du secteur publique,
– les investissements bruts
(formation brute de capital fixe + variation des stocks) et
– la différence entre exportations, , et importations,
.
C’est pourquoi si l’ouverture au commerce extérieur est importante, la crise peut influencer l’économie
du pays de façon significative (cf. Figure n° 1).
70
Il s’agit d’une crise, c.-à-d.un shock ou récession / dépression, qui provient d’un autre pays ou d’un groupe des pays du
monde, p. ex. la crise financière d’Asie de 1997 ou la crise financière et économique de 2007–2010.
71
Dans cet article nous examinons seulement la propension à ce risque. Cependant, il est possible d’étudier des autres, p.
ex. la volonté d’investir dans des projets à risque, de spéculer etc.
72
Le système de comptabilité nationale des économies de marché (SCN) est basée sur la théorie keynésienne,
. Les pays socialistes, p. ex. la Cube, utilisent un autre système,
p. ex. d’une partie sur l’équation
basé sur l’approche marxienne.
138
Figure n° 1 : L’impact de la crise sur l’économie nationale à travers le canal du commerce
Baisse de la
demande extérieure
Réduction des
exportations
Relentissement dans les
industries exportatrices :
baisse des investissements,
licenciements
Réduction des
importations
Récession
Si la part du commerce
extérieur dans le PIB
est importante
Améliaration éventuelle de la balance
commerciale et des termes de
l’échange
Propagation à toute l’économie :
chômage, baisse de la demande
intérieure
Empiriquement, il a établi trouvé que les plus ouverts sont des petits pays et des pays où le PIB par
habitant est élevé, p. ex. la majorité des nouveaux Etats membres de l’UE, l’Union européenne et le
Japon.73
•
L’impact de la crise à travers le commerce extérieur peut encore être renforcé par la structure du commerce : concentration excessive sur un seul pays ou sur un groupe des produits peut entraîner une baisse plus forte pendant la crise. Cela est particulièrement valable pour le commerce intra‐
industriel des produits de luxe au sens élargi.74 - L’ouverture aux capitaux étrangers. Les capitaux étrangers (investissements et crédits) sont devenus
une source important de financement pour plusieurs économies en développement et en transition, p.
ex. pour les NEM. Dans ces pays, ils constituent une part significative des investissements des
entreprises domestiques :
où
sont les investissements bruts,
– les capitaux domestiques,
– les capitaux étrangers,
–les
– les investissements de portefeuille, – les autres investissements / les crédits
investissements directs étrangers,
étrangers.
C’est pourquoi l’ouverture aux capitaux étrangers peut également influencer l’équilibre interne du pays
de façon importante (cf. Figure n° 2).
Figure n° 2 : L’impact de la crise sur l’économie nationale à travers le canal des capitaux
Baisse du flux des
investissement et /
ou des crédits
Exode des capitaux
Relantissement dans les
industries touchées :
problèmes financiers, baisse
des investissements,
licenciements, faillites
Pression sur
Récession
73
Si la part des
capitaux étrangers
dans l’économie
est significative
Propagation à toute l’économie : chômage,
réduction de la demande intérieure
Par exemple, Japon a enregistré une chute du PIB de 5,2% en 2009 en raison d’une réduction importante des
exportations. Cette baisse étaient la plus grande entre les centres de l’économie mondiale; Kojima (2009).
74
Principalement des groupes CTCI 7, machines et matériels de transport, et CITC 8, articles manufacturés divers, dont la
demande baisse de façon significative pendant une récession. Dans le cas du commerce intra-industriel plusieurs cette
baisse touche plus de pays, cf. les NEM.
139
L’impact de la crise à travers les capitaux étrangers est aussi renforcé ou affaibli par
la structure de ces capitaux. Le flux des capitaux à long terme (selon la balance de paiements des
investissements directs étrangers, IDE)75 peut soutenir l’économie pendant la crise. Par contre, la
dépendance des capitaux à court terme (investissements de portefeuille,
) et des crédits étrangers
(autres investissements, ) entraîne une récession plus profonde; cf. la situation en Lettonie ; Koyama
(2010).
Les facteurs influençant la structure des capitaux étrangers sont les taux d’intérêt domestiques (
) et
les taux d’intérêt étrangers ( ), l’inflation,76 la politique du gouvernement favorisant certaines
formes des capitaux, ses insuffisances etc. Figure n° 3 montre la relation entres les taux d’intérêt et des
capitaux étrangers, ceteris paribus.
Figure n° 3 : La relation entre les taux d’intérêt et la structure des capitaux étrangers
IRD
Prinicpalement :
capital à court terme
et crédits étrangers
IRD
Capital à court terme
et crédit étranger
IRE
Prinicpalement :
capital à long terme
CE
Capital à
long terme
CE
Les investisseurs cherchent des pays avec un avantage compétitif : soit avec les taux d’intérêt bas en
comparaison au niveau mondial ou à celui de leur pays ( ) afin d’effectuer un investissement à long
terme, soit avec les taux élevés pour placer leurs moyens à court terme .
•
Mandel (2000, p. 10) souligne que « les investissements directs étrangers sont non seulement moins sensible aux changements des taux d’intérêt domestiques que les différentes formes des capitaux de dette (particulièrement ceux à court terme), mais il peut même s’agir d’une relation inverse si les investisseurs étrangers financent les investissement directs par les crédits en monnaie du pays. De plus, la croissance du taux d’intérêt entraîne le flux des capitaux étrangers à cour terme et une appréciation de la monnaie nationale qui va encore influencer de façon négative le flux des investissements directs étrangers » (empiriquement confirmé pour la République tchèque par Mandel et Tomšík, 2003, pp. 294–311). •
Les capitaux à court terme sont, quand même, plus volatiles et peuvent plus facilement quitter l’économie que les investissements durables (les crédits étrangers peuvent se resserrer). Les pays ayant des taux d’intérêt élevés ou soutenant le flux des capitaux à court terme sont donc plus sensibles aux crises importées. 75
Selon la CNUCED, les IDE constituent au minimum 10 % du capital social d’une entreprise. L’autre condition est la
relation à long terme entre l’investisseur et l’entreprise concernée. Les investissements à court terme et / ou dont la part
dans l’entreprise est inférieure à 10 % sont désignés comme les investissements de portefeuille (IdP).
76
L‘inflation peut être la cause des taux d’intérêt élevés, ce qui, de son côté, attire des capitaux à court terme et suscite
l’endettement vers l’étranger. L’exemple est le développement de la Russie avant la crise.
140
Autres facteurs : la politique macroéconomique du gouvernement
- La politique et les expériences avec des crises77 du gouvernement et de la banque centrale peuvent
également renforcer ou affaiblir l’impact de la récession : une politique favorisant
la croissance avant la crise, particulièrement la manipulation avec des taux d’intérêt qui peur aggraver
la situation si la banque centrale en même temps cible l’inflation ; 78 et les mesures anti-crise
(quantitatives et qualitatives) bien réglées.
II.
Les méthodes utilisées dans l’article
Première étape : calculation des indicateurs sur la base des données macroénomiques
1) L’ouverture au commerce extérieur est mesuré par le rapport entre la moyenne des valeurs des exportations et des importations des biens et services et séparément des biens et des services et le PIB du pays : 2) La structure du commerce extérieur est exprimée par des groupes des produits et à l’aide du degré du commerce intra‐ industriel. •
Les groupes des produits correspondent à la Classification internationale type du commerce (CTCI), 2006, avec l’agrégation des groupes 0 et 1, 2 et 4, 6 et 8 : CTCI 0+1
CTCI 2+4
CTCI 3
CTCI 5
CTCI 6+8
CTCI 7
CTCI 9
•
Produits alimentaires, boissons et tabacs
Produits de base
Combustibles minéraux, lubrifiants et produits annexes
Produits chimiques et produits connexes, n.d.a.
Autres articles manufacturés
Machines et matériels de transport
Articles et transactions non classés ailleurs dans la CTCI
Le degré du commerce intra‐branche est mesuré par l’indice de Grubel et Lloyd qui est appliqué aux groupes CTCI décrits ci‐dessus (niveau I): 3) L’ouverture aux capitaux étrangers est mesuré par la part du flux des IDE, IdP et AI dans l’économie nationale: 4) La structure des capitaux étranger par les rapports similaires pour IDE, IdP et AI. Afin de déterminer le rôle des IDE dans l’économie, nous calculons aussi la balance de base qui montre: 77
Cf. les réactions du monde sur la crise de 2007-2010 et sur la Grande dépression des 1930s.
Selon Wicksell, K. et les économistes autrichiens, Mises, L., Hayek, F. A. et Garrison, R., la déviation du taux d’intérêt
de son niveau naturel évoque la cycle de crédit et influence l’économie du pays de façon significative.
78
141
Deuxième étape : l’analyse des indicateurs avec les méthodes de la statistique descriptive
5) Pour comparer la variation entre les groupes des pays : 6)
Pour estimer l’importance des différences entre les groupes des NEM :
III.
Le développement des nouveaux Etats membres avant la crise
Les nouveaux pays membres de l’UE comprenaient en avril 2011 dix économies en Europe centrale et
orientale (République tchèque, Slovaquie, Hongrie, Pologne, Slovénie, Estonie, Lettonie, Lituanie,
Roumanie et Bulgarie) et deux dans la région de la Méditerranée (Malte et Chypre). La majorité de ces
pays a adhéré à l’UE en 2004, la Roumanie et la Bulgarie en 2007. Cinq Etats sont devenus membres
de la zone euro : Slovénie (2007), Malte (2008), Chypre (2008), Slovaquie (2009) et Estonie (2011).
Les NEM ont quelques caractéristiques communes:
•
Une taille relativement petite (hors Pologne et Roumanie qui sont plus large). •
La transition économique en cours ou finie (hors Malta et Chypre qui n’étaient pas pays socialistes) : plusieurs NEM sont déjà considérés comme pays développés.79 •
Les politiques macroéconomiques libérales.80 •
L’ouverture importante de l’économie au commerce extérieur et aux capitaux étrangers à cause des ressources et capitaux insuffisants (investissements plus grands que les épargnes) ; Gajdušková (2010). •
Dans la majorité des cas un déficit de la balance de commerce et / ou du compte des transactions courantes (un excédent éventuel de la balance de commerce est couvert par la balance de revenus déficitaire) ; Gajdušková (2010). •
Participation dans plusieurs projets d’intégration avant l’adhésion à l‘UE: les accords de libre‐
échange (ALECE et ZLEMB),81 l’union douanière (la République tchèque et la Slovaquie) et le groupe informel Groupe de Visegrád (V4). Selon leur position géographique, histoire, nivaux économique, les NEM peuvent être divisés en trois
groupes : le groupe Visegrád (République tchèque, Slovaquie, Hongrie et Pologne) + Slovénie qui a un
niveau économique et une structure de l’économie comparable, les pays Baltes (Estonie, Lettonie et
79
Ces pays sont membres de l’Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques (OCDE) et / ou regardé
comme développés par le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) ou par le Forum économique mondiale de Davos (World
Economic Forum).
80
L’approche libérale des NEM a été critiqué par certains économistes après l’apparition de la crise économique.
81
ALECE – Accord de libre-échange centre-européen, ZLEMB - Zone de libre-échange de la Mer Baltique.
142
Lituanie), les pays méditerranés (Malte et Chypre) et les autres pays européens (Roumanie et
Bulgarie). La comparaison détaillée des groupes des nouveaux Etats membres est présentée dans les
tableau n° 1 et n° 2.
Tableau n° 1 : Les informations générales et l’équilibre interne des NEM avant la crise
Valeurs fin 2007
Pays
UE (27 pays)
NEM (moyenne)
Population au 1er
janvier
Moyennes, 1998-2007
PIB, standard de
Structure de
pouvoir d'achat
l'économie,
par habitant
A/I/S, % du PIB
495291925
100,0%
25000
100,0%
8610195
1,7%
16400
65,6%
1,8 / 26,6 / 71,6
Valeurs fin 2007
g,
π,
u,
pd,
gd,
%
%
%
%
%
2,5
2,8
8,6
4,9
6,39
9,7
81,2
31,0
3,5 / 34,6 / 62,0
4,2
5,5
10,6
54,1
38,6
0,8 / 3,5 / 3,2
0,5
1,5
4,5
12,5
15,6
3,8 / 30,8 / 65,5
N/D
59,0
Groupe de Visegrád (V4) + Slovénie
Moyenne
13176568
2,7%
Ecart-type
12850908
-
République tchèque
10287189
2,1%
19900
79,6%
2,5 / 38,4 / 59,1
3,6
3,05
7,6
47,8
29,0
5393637
1,1%
17000
68,0%
4,1 / 38,4 / 57,5
5,0
6,49
16,2
47,0
29,6
Hongrie
10066158
2,0%
15600
62,4%
4,0 / 29,8 / 66,3
3,8
7,54
6,7
58,9
66,1
Pologne
38125479
7,7%
13600
54,4%
4,3 / 31,6 / 64,0
4,2
4,67
15,8
40,6
45,0
Slovénie
2010377
0,4%
22100
88,4%
2,5 / 34,6 / 62,9
4,5
5,72
6,4
76,1
23,1
3,6 / 28,7 / 67,8
7,3
3,8
10,6
86,4
9,9
0,3 / 4,0 / 4,0
0,5
1,1
0,9
20,9
5,4
Slovaquie
17640
3030
70,6%
-
Pays baltes
Moyenne
2336198
Ecart-type
834738
0,5%
-
15300
1451
61,2%
-
Estonie
1342409
0,3%
17300
69,2%
3,2 / 30,2 / 66,7
7,4
4,46
9,3
110,7
3,7
Lettonie
2281305
0,5%
13900
55,6%
3,6 / 23,2 / 73,2
7,8
4,62
11,0
88,8
9,0
Lituanie
3384879
0,7%
14700
58,8%
3,9 / 32,6 / 63,5
6,6
2,23
11,5
59,6
16,9
2,3 / 20,4 / 77,4
2,9
2,5
5,8
175,4
60,2
0,1 / 1,5 / 1,6
1,1
0,0
1,4
36,1
1,8
Malte + Chypre
Moyenne
593247
0,1%
21100
Ecart-type
185437
-
Malte
407810
0,1%
19100
76,4%
2,4 / 21,8 / 75,8
1,9
2,45
7,2
139,4
62,0
Chypre
778684
0,2%
23100
92,4%
2,2 / 18,9 / 79,0
4,0
2,54
4,4
211,5
58,3
6,3 / 35,0 / 58,8
4,9
16,5
10,3
47,3
14,9
0,3 / 2,8 / 3,0
0,6
9,1
3,0
14,4
2,3
2000
84,4%
-
Roumanie + Bulgarie
Moyenne
14622205
Ecart-type
6942915
Roumanie
21565119
4,4%
10400
41,6%
6,5 / 37,8 / 55,7
4,3
25,54
7,3
32,9
12,6
7679290
1,6%
10100
40,4%
6,0 / 32,2 / 61,8
5,5
7,42
13,2
61,6
17,2
Bulgarie
3,0%
-
10250
150
41,0%
-
Notes : Dans le cas des moyennes, il s’agit des moyennes arithmétiques non-pondérées ; les valeurs absentes dans les séries
temporelles ont été ignorées.
Standard de pouvoir d'achat (SPA) est unité monétaire artificielle utilisée pour des comparaisons des pays.
pd a été estimée comme le rapport entre les crédits octroyés par les institutions financières monétaires et le PIB.
Source : Eurostat, BCE, banques centrales nationales ; calculations propres
143
Tableau n° 2 : Les relations économiques étrangères des NEM avant la crise
OUC
-
Zone euro
NEM (moyenne)
Les moyens des années 1998-2007
CTCI (3 gr.
GL
OUC, biens
OUC, services
principaux)
(Int./Ext.)
-
58,8% 45,9%
-
-
7, 6+8
0,64 / 0,61
-
Les moyens des années 1998-2007
2000-2007
IR à 3
mois, %
OUF
OUF, IDE
BB
OUF, IdP+AI
-
-
-
-
3,24
6,6% -0,8%
14,5%
6,85
4,9% ‐0,2% 6,0%
6,73
12,9% 21,1%
Groupe de Visegrád + Slovénie Moyenne 59,6% 50,9% 7 , 6+8 , 5 0,76 / 0,61 8,7%
10,8%
Ecart‐type 15,5% 13,5% ‐ 2,2%
2,0%
1,7% 2,0% 2,9%
2,14
République tchèque 65,9% 56,4% 7 , 6+8 , 5 0,82 / 0,59 9,5%
10,2%
7,2% 3,0% 3,0%
3,27
Slovaquie 74,9% 65,3% 7 , 6+8 , 5 0,79 / 0,55 9,6%
10,1%
5,8% 0,1% 4,3%
5,82
Hongrie 68,7% 57,7% 7 , 6+8 , 5 0,79 / 0,59 10,9%
13,8%
5,1% ‐3,1% 8,7%
9,17
Pologne 30,6% 26,0% 7 , 6+8 , 0+1
0,77 / 0,57 4,6%
7,8%
4,1% 0,3% 3,8%
8,74
Slovénie 57,9% 49,0% 6+8 , 7 , 5 0,64 / 0,77 8,9%
12,2%
2,1% ‐1,2% 10,1%
6,65
0,59 / 0,63 10,6%
15,8%
5,2% ‐2,8% 11,3%
3,85
‐ 6,3%
9,0%
3,1% 6,4%
1,08
‐ Pays baltes Moyenne 49,6% 39,1% 6+8 , 7 , 2+4
Ecart‐type 22,6% 16,6% Estonie 79,0% 59,2% 6+8 , 7 , 2+4
0,62 / 0,66 19,7%
22,3%
9,6% ‐2,7% 12,6%
3,84
Lettonie 49,5% 38,0% 6+8 , 2+4 , 7
0,52 / 0,61 11,5%
25,3%
4,8% ‐6,5% 20,5%
5,10
Lituanie 54,6% 45,8% 6+8 , 3 , 7 0,63 / 0,62 8,8%
13,6%
4,4% ‐4,0% 9,2%
4,31
0,37 / 0,45 17,5%
33,8%
6,9% 1,2% 27,1%
3,36
‐ 9,2%
22,7%
3,4% 3,7% 19,2%
1,35
12,1% 6,3% 53,5%
3,88
‐ 2,9% Malte + Chypre Moyenne 50,7% 33,4% 7 , 0+1 , 6+8
Ecart‐type 22,5% 16,8% Malte 85,4% 58,3% 7 , 6+8 , 0+1
0,41 / 0,55 27,1%
65,6%
Chypre 45,3% 19,5% 7 , 0+1 , 6+8
0,33 / 0,35 25,9%
44,7%
7,5% ‐1,9% 37,2%
4,65
‐ Roumanie + Bulgarie Moyenne 41,8% 31,4% 6+8 , 7 ,3 0,68 / 0,73 11,3%
21,1%
6,7% 1,3% 14,5%
7,88
Ecart‐type 13,7% 9,8% ‐ ‐ 4,7%
8,4%
3,0% 2,0% 9,1%
8,51
Roumanie 35,8% 30,8% 6+8 , 7 , 3 0,68 / 0,74 5,0%
11,0%
4,9% ‐1,8% 6,1%
22,50
Bulgarie 58,1% 44,4% 6+8 , 7 , 3 0,69 / 0,72 13,6%
17,0%
5,5%
4,30
11,5% 2,1% Note : Dans le cas des moyennes, il s’agit des moyennes arithmétiques non-pondérées ; les valeurs absentes dans les séries
Pour les taux d’intérêt la série est plus coutre.
L’indice de Grubel et Lloyd a été calculé pour le commerce intérieur (int.) et pour le commerce extérieur (ext.).
Source : Eurostat, BCE
Sur la base des tableaux il est possible de constater que
a) Entre les NEM il y a des différences de taille et de niveaux de développement, ce qui rend la comparaison plus difficile. Les plus peuplés sont la Pologne et la Roumanie (38,1 et 21,6 millions hab.), les plus riches – la Chypre, la Slovénie et la Malte (plus de 19000 unités SPA par habitant). 144
b) Les NEM ont une structure de l’économie similaire (selon l’importance : services, industries, agriculture). Néanmoins pour la Chypre et la Malte la part de l’industrie est moins élevée. Les plus industrialisés sont les pays de l’Europe centrale et du Sud (plus que 30 % du PIB). c) le NEM sont très ouverts au commerce étranger sauf la Pologne, la Roumanie, la Lettonie et la Chypre. De plus, la Chypre, la Malte et l’Estonie enregistrent un plus haute part du commerce de services que les autres (20 % ou plus du PIB). La structure du commerce est, néanmoins, similaire pour tous les NEM (dominance des groupes 6, 7 et 8). Sauf la Malte et la Chypre, le commerce est aussi plutôt intra‐
industriel. d) Pour certains NEM les IDE ne couvrent pas tout le déficit du compte de transactions courantes. C’est pourquoi ces pays sont obligés d’importer des capitaux à court terme et des crédits, p. ex. la Chypre et la Malte (IdP+AI – plus que un tiers du PIB). Par contre, la Bulgarie et la République tchèque importent plus des IDE que des capitaux à court terme et des crédits (11,5 % et 7,2 % du PIB). e) Quelques pays ont eu des taux d’intérêt plus élevés que ceux de la zone euro, p.ex. l’Hongrie, la Pologne, la Lettonie et la Roumanie.82 Pendant la période d’abondance des moyens financiers cela a entraîné une croissance importante des crédits étrangers dans ces économies. Le développement à long terme (1998-2007) des nouveaux Etats membres avant la crise a été
caractérisé par :
1) Une croissance importante, particulièrement dans les pays baltes (7,3 % par an en moyenne), en Roumanie et en Bulgarie (4,9 % en moyenne) et la convergence réelle et l’approfondissement de l’intégration avec les pays de la zone euro. 2) Une détermination des dates d’adhésion à la zone euro par plusieurs NEM. Atteint par la Slovénie, la Malte et la Chypre et pendant la crise par la Slovaquie et l’Estonie. 3) La croissance de la dette privée quelques années avant la crise en raison des taux d’intérêt bas aux Etats‐Unis et en Union européenne. Selon certains auteurs l’augmentation des crédits en monnaie nationale et particulièrement en monnaie
étrangère avant la crise a excédé les tendences à long terme ; Coudert et Pouvelle (2010) ; Milea, Glod,
Lupu, et Criste, (2010), Koyama (2010) et Lazový et Slovakova (2009). Les plus endettés étaient les
NEM méditerranéens et les pays baltes (175,4 % et 86,4 % de PIB en moyenne). La croissance de la
dette privées a entraîné une surchauffe économique en Lettonie est dans quelques autres pays (Estonie,
Bulgarie, Roumanie, République tchèque etc.) et a renforcé l’impact de la crise dans la région. De
plus, l’Hongrie a enregistré une croissance de la dette publique à 66,1 % du PIB fin 2007.
IV.
L’analyse de la situation dans les nouveaux Etats membres pendant la crise
Nous divisons l’analyse à trois parties : l’impact de la crise sur l’équilibre interne des NEM de l’UE,
les perspectives pour l’année 2011 et le rôle de la monnaie unique européenne.
Vu les différences indiquées ci-dessus, nous avons regroupé les pays selon leur ouverture de
l’économie au commerce extérieur et selon la structure du flux des capitaux étrangers (sur la base des
indicateurs et OUF, IdP+AI) en respectant les spécificités des pays méditerranéens :83
82
Slovénie et Slovaquie ont adapté leurs taux d’intérêt à ceux de la zone euro avant l’adhésion. C’est pourquoi nous ne les
éxaminons pas en détail.
83
La Malte et la Chypre représentent un cas spécifique parmi les NEM, en raison de leurs position géographique, petite
taille, niveau de développement, histoire différente (ex-colonies du Royaume-Uni) et culture.
145
IdP+AI – orientés
Europe centrale et
Méditerranée
orientale
IDE – orientés
Moins ouverts au
commerce
extérieur
Plus ouverts au
commerce
extérieur
Pologne
Lituanie, Roumanie,
Slovénie
Chypre
Bulgarie, République
tchèque, Slovaquie
Estonie, Hongrie
Malte
Autres pays
Lettonie
Le cas de Lettonie ; vu le degré des problèmes, est étudié séparément.
IV.1. L’impact de la crise sur l’équilibre interne des NEM
La logique du cours de la crise financière et économique mondiale et sa propagation à l’Union
européenne et les NEM de l’UE est présentée sur Figure n° 4.84
Figure n° 4 : Le cours de la crise financière et économique mondiale (2007–2010)
La crise économique mondiale
(la récession, les problèmes fiscaux)
La crise financière mondiale
(les problèmes de la dette, la chute des banques)
Début
L’accumulation des
problèmes
latents
« l’ère avant LB »
La chute de
Lehman
Brothers
2007
2001
« l’ère après LB »
Tournant
La crise
de la dette
grecque
2008
avr. 2007
La bulle
immobilière aux
Etats-Unis
2009
mars 2008
La crise
financière des
pays anglosaxonnes
sept. 2008
nov. 2008
Le découplage Le désendetteentre les pays
ment et
développés et en l’extension de
dévéloppement
la crise
Reprise
2010
Pic
2011
mars-mai 2010
Les mésures de
soutien à
l’économie
L’impact de la crise sur l’UE, 1ère étape
2011
La crise de la dette
des pays européens,
la reprise dans le
monde
2ème étape
L’impact de la crise sur les NPM de l’UE
Source : Singer (2010), Gaïdar et ali (2009), BBC ; modifications propres
Selon le développement du PIB, les nouveaux Etats membres sont entrés dans la crise à partir de 3ème
trimestre 2008, un trimestre après l’ensemble de l’Union européenne. Les raisons de ce retard peuvent
résider dans la réaction des agents éocomiques limitée par des contrats existants (prix et quantités
fixés) et par la réaction des investisseurs. Néanmoins, les bourses des NEM a ensuite enregistré un
exode important des capitaux, car les investisseurs a essayé de compenser des pertes sur leurs marchés
de base (l’Europe occidentale et les Etats-Unis).85
Selon l’impact de la crise sur les économies nationales, il est possible de distinguer trois groupes des
pays en Union européenne :
•
84
Les pays qui ont participé à la crise financière anglo‐saxonne : le Royaume‐Uni. Figure n° 4 constitue une synthèse des approches des économistes occidentaux et de l’Europe centrale et orientale :
BBC, Singer (2010) et Gaïdar et ali (2009).
85
La présentation du directeur de la Bourse de Prague, Ing. Petr Koblic, à l’Université d’Economie de Prague, dans le
cadre du cours « Commerce international », avril 2009.
146
•
•
Les pays qui sont entrés dans la récession à cause de la crise mondiale : la majorité des Etats membres incluant les NEM. Les pays qui ont des problèmes de la dette privée et / ou publique: la Grèce, l’Irlande, l’Italie, l’Espagne, le Portugal et la Léttonie (éventuellement l’Hongrie, cf. Tab. n° 4). Il est évident que les NEM appartiennent aux deux derniers groupes. La crise a ainsi été plutôt
importée pour les nouveaux Etats membres sauf la situation en Lettonie qui a connu des problèmes
propres liés, entre autres, aux activités des banques suédoises; Koyama (2010).
Tableau n° 3 : Les indicateurs de l’équilibre interne des NEM avant et pendant la crise
g, %
1998-07
π, %
2008-10
1998-07
u, %
2008-10
1998-07
pd, %
2008-10
fin 2007
gd, %
fin 2010
fin 2007
fin 2010
51,5
45,0
55,0
Moins ouverts au commerce extérieur, IDE-orientés
Pologne
4,2
3,5
4,67
3,63
15,8
8,3
40,6
Moins ouverts au commerce extérieur, IdP+AI-orientés (Europe centrale et orientale)
Lituanie
6,6
-3,5
2,23
5,50
11,5
12,4
59,6
62,7
16,9
38,2
Roumanie
4,3
-0,4
25,54
6,53
7,3
6,7
32,9
40,3
12,6
30,8
Slovénie
4,5
-1,1
5,72
2,83
6,4
5,9
76,1
90,3
23,1
38,0
Moyenne
5,1
-1,6
11,2
5,0
8,4
8,3
56,2
64,4
17,5
35,7
Ecart type
1,07
1,34
10,27
1,56
2,23
2,93
17,82
20,45
4,31
3,44
211,5
293,4
58,3
60,8
Moins ouverts au commerce extérieur, IdP+AI-orientés (Méditerrané)
Chypre
4,0
1,0
2,54
2,40
4,4
5,1
Plus ouverts au commerce extérieur, IDE-orientés
Bulgarie
5,5
0,3
7,42
5,83
13,2
7,5
61,6
73,2
17,2
16,2
3,6
0,3
3,05
2,70
7,6
6,1
47,8
53,5
29,0
38,5
Slovaquie
5,0
1,7
6,49
1,83
16,2
12,0
47,0
48,1
29,6
41,0
Moyenne
4,7
0,7
5,7
3,5
12,3
8,5
52,1
58,3
25,3
31,9
Ecart type
0,79
0,65
1,88
1,72
3,60
2,49
6,74
10,79
5,71
11,15
Plus ouverts au commerce extérieur, IdP+AI-orientés (Europe centrale et orientale)
Estonie
7,4
-5,3
4,46
4,50
9,3
12,1
110,7
97,3
3,7
6,6
Hongrie
3,8
-1,6
7,54
4,90
6,7
9,7
58,9
65,4
66,1
80,2
Moyenne
5,6
-3,4
6,0
4,7
8,0
10,9
84,8
81,4
34,9
43,4
Ecart type
3,00
1,87
1,54
0,20
1,30
1,20
25,89
15,95
31,20
36,80
Plus ouverts au commerce extérieur, IdP+AI-orientés (Méditerrané)
Malte
1,9
1,9
2,45
2,83
7,2
6,6
139,4
155,9
62,0
68,0
14,4
88,8
97,3
9,0
44,7
Autre nouveaux Etats membres
Lettonie
7,8
-7,5
4,62
5,80
11,0
Note : Dans le cas des moyennes, il s’agit des moyennes arithmétiques non-pondérées ; les valeurs absentes dans les séries
pd a été estimée comme le rapport entre les crédits octroyés par les institutions financières monétaires et le PIB.
Tableau n° 4 présente les valeurs moyennes des indicateurs de l’équilibre interne pendant
la crise mondiale (2008–2010)86 en comparaison avec le développement à long terme avant la crise
(1998–2007).
86
Les nouveaux Etats membres sont entrés dans la crise vers la fin 2008 ; cf. Figure n° 4.
147
Sur la base du tableau il est possible de constater que les deux groupes des NEM orientés vers des
investissements directs étrangers (IDE) ont enregistré les meilleurs résultats : la Pologne, le pays le
moins ouvert, n’a pas connu de croissance négative (3,5 % en moyenne, 2008-2010) et la Bulgarie, la
République tchèque et la Slovaquie ont connu un déclin modéré (de 0,7 % en moyenne). Les valeurs
des autres indicateurs étaient plus similaires (taux d’inflation : 3,63 % et 3,5 % ; taux de chômage : 8,3
% et 8,5 % ; dette privée : 51,5 % et 58,3 %). La dette publique a été plus important que dans les autres
pays de l’Europe centrale et orientale.
Les groupes orientés vers des investissements de portefeuille et des autres investissements (IdP+AI)
ont connu un déclin important (-1,6 % et -3,4 %). Cela peut être expliqué par la croissance rapide et
ensuite une baisse du taux de croissance similaire des pays baltes avant
la crise. Les valeurs des autres indicateurs étaient aussi plus ou moins proches entre elles (sauf
la dette privée : 64,4 % et 84,4 %).
Pour la Malte et la Chypre les résultats était également très similaires avec un ralentissement modéré
de la croissance et l’augmentation rapide de la dette privée (de 211,5 % à 293,4 % pour la Chypre et de
139,4 % à 155,9 % pour la Malte).87 Ces pays ont aussi une dette publique supérieure à celle des pays
de l’Europe centrale et orientale.
Le développement de Lettonie était plus grave, en comparaison avec les autres groupes des NEM
(déclin de l’activité de 7,5 % en moyenne, l’accélération de l’inflation, la croissance du chômage, de la
dette privée et de la dette publique de 9,0 % à 44,7 % du PIB).
Le degré de la différence entre les groupes des NEM est présenté dans le tableau n° 5.
Tableau n° 4 : La variance entre les groupes (VIG) des NEM
g, %
1998-07
VIG 42,2 π, %
2008-10
91,1 1998-07
56,5 u, %
pd, %
2008-10
1998-07
2008-10
fin 2007
66,8
79,2
74,0
93,9
gd, %
fin 2010
97,5 fin 2007
fin 2010
66,0
46,1
Le tableau montre que les différences entre les groupes ont augmenté pendant la crise pour les
indicateurs de croissance,88 d’inflation et de la dette privée (ce qui signifie une divergence entre les
NEM) et ont baissé pour le chômage et la dette publique à cause de la récession et de l’implémentation
des programmes anti-crise. L’augmentation de la dette publique et les problèmes fiscaux posent
aujourd’hui problèmes pour la majorité des NEM.
Pour conclure, selon les données il est possible de constater que la structure du flux des capitaux
étrangers semble plus important que l’ouverture au commerce extérieur, car tous les groupes ayant une
structure du flux des capitaux pareille ont enregistré un développement similaire, p. ex. la Pologne et la
groupe de Bulgarie, République tchèque et Slovaquie.
Les conclusions peuvent, quand même, être influencée par les distorsions dans les moyennes en
raisons des différences entre les nouveaux Etats membres (taille, niveau de développement etc.) et par
l’utilisation des séries temporelles en euro (les distorsions crées par la conversion des monnaies
nationales en monnaie unique).
IV.2. Les prévisions pour l’année 2011 et le future
A partir l’année 2010 les NEM connaissent une reprise économique même si une partie de l’Union
européenne reste encore en crise (l’Irlande, le Portugal en avril 2011). La reprise peut être montrée par
les changements de l’indice mondial de la compétitivité publié par le Forum économique mondial de
Davos ; cf. Tableau n° 5.
Tableau n° 5 : Les positions des NEM selon l’indice mondial de la compétitivité
87
La Malte et la Chypre peuvent être considérées comme paradis fiscaux. C’est pourquoi la croissance de leur dette privée
peut avoir plusieurs raisons. Certains économistes attribuent la situation à Chypre à la crise grecque.
88
La différence entre la croissance des groupes a été très importante pendant la crise : le minimum de -7,5 % en Lettonie et
le maximum de 3,5 % en Pologne. La valeur a, quand même, été influencé par le choix des pays dans les groupes.
Lettonie
Autre NEM
Malte
Plus, IdP+AI (M)
Hongrie
Estonie
Plus, IdP+AI (E)
Slovaquie
Bulgarie
Plus, IDE
Chypre
Moins, IdP+AI (M)
Slovénie
Roumanie
Lituanie
Moins, IdP+AI (E)
Pologne
Moins, IDE
148
2006–2007 (de 122)
45 45 51 39 73 40 49 49 47 74 31 36 26 26 26 51 51 44 44
2007–2008 (de 131)
51 51 50 38 74 39 55 55 51 79 33 41 27 27 27 56 56 45 45
2008–2009 (de 134)
53 53 51 44 68 42 40 40 52 76 33 46 47 32 62 52 52 54 54
2009–2010 (de 133)
46 46 51 53 64 37 34 34 51 76 31 47 47 35 58 52 52 68 68
2010–2011
39 39 53 47 67 45 40 40 56 71 36 60 43 33 52 50 50 70 70
Note : Moins, Plus – ouverture au commerce extérieur ; E, M – Europe centrale et orientale et Méditerrané
Source : Forum économique mondial de Davos
Néanmoins, dans ce cas il n’est pas possible de trouver la même structure que sur Tableau
n° 3 (la structure des flux des capitaux étrangers ne joue pas un rôle important pendant
la reprise). Les pays qui améliorent leur position en 2010-2011 sont la Pologne, la Chypre, la
Roumanie et la Bulgarie. En même temps, la Lettonie et la Slovaquie perdent des positions.
Le Forum économique mondial indique que en 2011 les économies les plus performantes
en Europe centrale et orientale reste l’Estonie et la République tchèque (33ème et 36ème).
En ce qui concernent les tendances, L‘Economist Intelligence Unit, le bureau analytique
de la magazine « The Economist », prévoit la croissance de 3,1 % pour la région de l’Europe centrale
et orientale en comparaison de 1,1 % pour l’UE-27 (1,7 % par l’Eurostat). Il est probable que la Malte
et la Chypre montreront également des bons résultats. Cela permettra les NEM de poursuivre leur
convergence vers les pays de la zone euro.
Les plus grand problèmes, quand même, seront, à court terme, le chômage et, à longe termes, les
problèmes fiscaux qui empêchent certains pays d’adhérer à l’union monétaire dans les délais
déterminés avant la crise.
IV.3. Le rôle de la monnaie unique pendant la crise
Aujourd’hui (avril 2011) il est difficile de déterminer si l’euro a aidé les cinq nouveaux Etats membres
de la zone euro à mieux surmonter la crise (si l’effet net est positif). Čajka (2010) et Halmai et Vásáry
(2010) indiquent que
•
•
•
•
La Slovénie (2007) a eu des problèmes avec l’inflation après l’adhésion à la zone euro résultant des accords entre les gouvernement et les syndicats de ne pas exiger l’augmentation des salaires pendant l’année 2006. La Malte et la Chypre (2008) utilisaient l’euro couramment avant leur adhésion grâce au tourisme des pays de la zone euro (cf. la part du commerce des services dans leur PIB, Tableau n° 1). Slovaquie (2009) a fixé son taux de change à l’euro pendant la période défavorable, quand les taux de changes des pays de l’Europe centrale et orientale connaissaient une appréciation temporelle, et n’a pas donc pu effectuer une correction suivante. Cela a produit un impact négatif sur les exportations slovaques pendant la crise. Estonie (2011) a connu une surchauffe de l’économie avant la crise et une baisse importante de l’activité pendant la crise. Il est donc possible de constater que l’euro aide les NEM seulement si leur convergence réelle vers la
zone euro est suffisante et augmente dans le temps et que le gouvernement et la banque centrale du
pays ont choisi le temps optimal pour l’introduction de la monnaie unique. Sinon l’euro peut détériorer
la situation.
Points forts de la monnaie unique pendant la crise :
149
•
•
L’absence de volatilité du taux de change, la stabilité plus forte peut attirer plus d’investissements – cf. la Slovénie, la Slovaquie, la Malte et la Chypre. Après la crise grecque il est possible de recevoir l’aide de la zone euro dans le cas des problèmes – tous les pays de la zone euro. Points faibles de la monnaie unique pendant la crise :
•
•
•
•
L’absence d’une politique monétaire propre, particulièrement quand le développement est assymétrique dans la zone euro – l’inflation en Slovénie, les mesures anti‐crise en Slovaquie etc. L’impossibilité de déprécier sa monnaie pendant la crise pour stimuler les exportations. Cela peut constituer un problème si le taux de change avait été fixé à un niveau non‐naturellement fort avant la crise – cf le cas de la Slovaquie. La dégradation de la situation si quelques autres critères Maastrichte ont été remplies artificiellement. L’obligation d’aider les pays avec des problèmes fiscaux : la Grèce, l’Irlande, le Portugal etc. – cf. la Slovaquie. La recherche sur la problématique, p. ex. Čajka, Gajdušková et Bolotov (2010) et Bolotov (2011b) et,
n’a pas également jusqu’ici montré que la situation des NEM – membres de la zone euro a été
considérablement meilleure que dans les autres NEM pendant la crise. Néanmoins, comme il a été déjà
indiqué, l’euro a apporté aux nouveaux Etat membres des aspects positifs. La question reste, quand
même, si l’effet net était également positif pour tous les cinq nouveaux membres de la zone euro.
Conclusion
1) Dans cet article nous utilisons une propre définition de l’équilibre interne à l’aide de cinq
indicateurs : le taux de croissance du Produit intérieur brut (PIB), le taux d’inflation, le taux de
chômage, la dette privée et la dette publique en pourcentage du PIB.
2) Du point de vue de la théorie économique, il est posible de trouver trois groupes des facteurs qui
renforcent ou affaiblissent l’impact d’une crise importée sur l’économie du pays: la propension des
agents économiques à s’endetter ; l’ouverture de l’économie au commerce extérieur et aux capitaux
étrangers et la structure du commerce et du flux des capitaux ; et la politique macroéconomique du
gouvernement et de la banque centrale.
3) Le développement à long terme (1998-2007) des nouveaux Etats membres avant la crise a été
caractérisé par :
•
•
•
Une croissance importante, particulièrement dans les pays baltes, en Roumanie et en Bulgarie et la convergence réelle et l’approfondissement de l’intégration avec les pays de la zone euro. Une détermination des dates d’adhésion à la zone euro par plusieurs NEM. Atteint par la Slovénie, la Malte et la Chypre et pendant la crise par la Slovaquie et l’Estonie. La croissance de la dette privée quelques années avant la crise en raison des taux d’intérêt bas aux Etats‐Unis et en Union européenne. 4) La détérioration de l’équilibre interne semble d’être principalement influencée par la structure du
flux des capitaux étrangers. Les pays qui importent plus des capitaux à court terme (investissements de
portefeuille) et des crédits étrangers (autres investissements) que des investissements direct ont connu
des problèmes plus importants. La Lettonie a eu des problèmes propres plus grave que la moyenne des
NEM.
5) A partir de l’année 2010 les nouveaux Etats membres connaissent une reprise de l’activité et
poursuivons leur convergence vers la zone euro. Les plus grand problèmes, quand même, restent, à
court terme, le chômage et, à long termes, les problèmes fiscaux qui empêchent certains pays d’adhérer
à l’union monétaire dans les délais déterminés avant la crise.
6) Il est difficile de déterminer si l’euro a aidé les nouveaux Etats membres de la zone euro à
surmonter la crise. La monnaie unique a apporté aux NEM des aspects positifs, mais la question reste
si l’effet net était également positif pour tous les nouveaux pays de l’union monétaire.
150
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Rapports, statistiques :
1. Forum économique mondial. Rapport mondial sur la compétitivité (2008–2009, 2009–2010, 2010–
2011) 2. The Economist, Monde 2011 (edition tchèque) 3. BBC, http://www.bbc.co.uk 4. Eurostat, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat 5. Banque centrale européenne, http://www.ecb.int 6. Banque nationale d’Estonie, http://www.bankofestonia.info 7. Banque nationale tchèque, http://www.cnb.cz 8. Banque nationale de Slovaquie, http://www.nbs.sk 9. Banque nationale de Hongrie, http://www.mnb.hu 10. Banque nationale de Pologne, http://www.nbp.pl 11. Banque de Slovénie, http://www.bsi.si 12. Banque de Lettonie, http://www.bank.lv 13. Banque de Lituanie, http://lb.lt 14. Banque nationale de Roumanie, http://www.bnr.ro 15. Banque nationale de Bulgarie, http://www.bnb.bg 16. Banque centrale de Chypre, http://www.centralbank.gov.cy 17. Banque centrale de Malte, http://www.centralbankmalta.org/ THE IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON BALTIC COUNTRIES89
Dopad hospodářské krize na země Pobaltí
Ing. Radek ČAJKA90
University of economics, Prague
[email protected]
Introduction
Latvia and the other two Baltic countries (Estonia and Lithuania) that joined the
European Union in 2004 were for quite a long period of time considered for model
transition economies with excellent economic performance. But as the financial crisis
and especially the panic that flooded the markets made its appearance in this small part
of Europe, several bad or unhealthy economic facts about these countries were revealed.
During a few weeks position of these countries switched from general chanting about
their performance to very serious financial troubles that had to be solved with the help
of international (financial) institutions, because otherwise some of them would have
gone bankrupt.
The aim of this article is to review the impacts of financial and economic crisis on
these three Baltic countries, with a special paid to the situation in Latvia.
Literature overview
There are several papers that have been written so far about the development in
Latvia. Most analyzes come from the IMF, which is responsible for the reviewing of the
economy development, because credits are directly linked to the performance. I found
these papers very helpful and detailed. Other papers, like Staehr (2010), Purfield,
Rosenberg (2010) or Ingves (2010) deal more with the situation in the whole Baltic
region and compare the development of all three countries. Important feature of all the
papers is that they do not differ much in the analysis and, more importantly, in the
outcomes, i.e. little disputation is involved.
The Latvian case – overview
Before analyzing the current situation of Latvian economy and the importance
and outcomes of the Stand-By Arrangement, there is a need to explain how and why
Latvia ended up in such an economic unfavorable situation.
Just by listing the important facts we realize that there were several initial reasons
that caused overheating of the Latvian economy during 2006 and 2007 (IMF 2009; 5):
• Real-estate bubble – real estate prices grew in 2005 and 2006 by more than 60 %,
which led to the increase in the volume of provided credits by annual rate of 50 %
(many of the purchases were only speculative, which was raising prices
artificially).
This contribution to the conference proceeding was carried out within the F2/15/2010 internal UEP
grant.
90 Ph.D. student and assistant lecturer within Faculty of international relations, Department of
international trade.
89
154
• Excessive growth of domestic demand, mainly driven by private consumption
and real estate investment.
• Wage and price inflation acceleration at the beginning of 2007.
• Procyclical fiscal policy of the government, which had its origin in rising tax
revenues and inflow from EU funds (according to the IMF calculations
contributed public sector expenditures and incoming EU funds to the growth of
Latvian economy in 2007 by 6 % and thus economy was exceeding its potential
by 9 %) (Purfield, Rosenberg 2010; 16).
This unfavorable economic development constituted (together with other facts
that will be stated below) severe difficulties for the country:
• Rapid slowdown of the economy – its real GDP growth rate dropped from 12.2 %
in 2006 (10.0 % in 2007 respectively) to – 4.2 % in 2008 and then even to – 18.0
% in 200991, which was mainly caused by drop in consumption, investment and
net exports (IMF 2009; 6).
Graph 1 – Economic development in Latvia
Source: Eurostat
91
Eurostat data.
155
Graph 2 - Economic development in Latvia
Source: Eurostat
• The mentioned slowdown of the economy decreased national tax revenues, and
with increasing unemployment, raised, on the other hand, the volume of paid
social benefits. Thus, the government deficit amounted to – 4.2 % of GDP in
2008 and – 9.7 % in 200992, which was the exact opposite development to the
previous years with nearly balanced budgets. Other important contributions to
those deficits were costs connected with the situation in banking sector (see
below).
Graph 3 – Government deficits in individual years
Source: Eurostat
92
Eurostat data.
156
• The only characteristic that improved during this time was the current account
deficit, which had originally arisen from net imports of tradebles and outflow of
profits. Contraction of this deficit was caused by falling domestic demand for
imported goods and drop in the profits of foreign subsidiaries in Latvia.
Graph 4 – Current account and income balance development
Source: Eurostat
• High external debt combined with maturity below one year (amount exceeded 50
% of GDP) and solvency problems of the private sector constituted additional
threats.
• But the biggest problems were accumulated within the banking sector:
o Two-thirds of the provided bank loans were backed by real estate, which did
not constitute beneficial situation in time of bursting of the real estate
bubble, when the prices went down.
o More than 60 % of all banks were owned by parent banks from Nordic
countries, especially from Sweden. Parent banks also were the main source
of financing. The rest of the Latvian banks were owned and financed mainly
from CIS countries, which represented more fragile element.
As financial crisis boosted, investors and other institutions were getting more and
more concerned about the sustainability of the peg that has been used in Latvia since the
beginning of the transformation process. The reason was (except for the above stated
facts) that short-term capital started to leave the economy and it was generally expected
that the government would have to absorb the liabilities of the financial sector. These
concerns were supported by the downgrade of the Latvian rating by all three main
agencies.
157
During couple of months approximately 10 % of all deposits left the banking
system, withdrawals came especially from the CIS countries. The missing liquidity had
to be put into the system by the central bank, which was reflected then in decreasing
foreign exchange reserves. The biggest Latvian bank, the Parex Bank, had to be
nationalized (in form of adding liquidity) in order to increase confidence and reduce the
outflow of deposits.
The IMF Stand-By Arrangement
Considering the possible consequences of the existing situation Latvia was
facing, there arose a need for external help. The government decided to request this help
via the IMF Stand-By Arrangement, but this source could not have covered all the
financial needs. That is why additional 6.3 billion EUR (3.1 billion from the EU, 1.8
billion from Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland, 0.2 billion, 0.1 billion and 0.1
billion from the Czech Republic, Poland and Estonia respectively, 0.4 and 0.1 billion
from the World Bank and the EBRD and 0.5 billion EUR from the Swedish central
bank the Riksbank had to be added to the originally provided credit line from the IMF
in the value of 1.7 billion EUR.
The program of all participated authorities concentrated primarily at its beginning
at the existing liquidity crisis, the middle- and long-term aim is to ensure sustainability
of the external position of the economy while maintaining the peg. Not maintaining it
would have probably meant strong devaluation or depreciation of the exchange rate,
which would have caused serious difficulties since majority of loans had been provided
in foreign currencies (60 % of all corporation and 40 % of all household credits)
(Purfield, Rosenberg 2010; 30).
Scope of the program aimed at six different parts of the economy (IMF 2009; 9):
1) Monetary and exchange rate policy – maintaining of the quasi currency board was
the central task, since devaluation or making the currency float would have had
adverse effect on both banks and individual balance sheets.
2) Macroeconomic framework – real exchange rate depreciation was desired. Since
this was not achievable considering the peg, the only way was lower domestic
inflation rate. This proved not to constitute a problem considering the economic
drop.
3) Financial sector reform – the immediate task was to eliminate further
deterioration in the bank deposits and to reduce other vulnerabilities in the
banking sector and increase confidence. In middle-term, the revision of banking
system supervision and regulation was needed.
4) Private debt restructuring – dealing with the rising insolvency of individuals and
corporations that was expected (using new insolvency law, personal bankruptcy,
etc.).
5) Fiscal policy – program includes substantial fiscal tightening that limits
deterioration in the budget deficit. Following measures were expected to take:
revenue measures (increases in VAT and excises), expenditures cuts (public
sector nominal wages and current spending) – although having short-term
contractionary effects -, improvement in the tax system (shift from direct to
indirect taxes and improved tax collection), institutional changes and new local
government spending guidelines (Staehr 2010; 686).
158
6) Structural reform and income policy – structural reform was needed to improve
the competitiveness of the tradable sector since devaluation was not an option,
and also reversing the excessive wage rate growth was desired.
The working-out of the program – current development in Latvia
Positive development has been experienced regarding the GDP growth93. The
2010 rate was still negative (-0.3 %), but compared with huge drops in its values during
the preceding years shows this positive change. The outlook promises for 2011 and
2012 positive growth (by forecasting 3.3 % and 4.0 % growth, respectively). More
importantly, the industrial production has recovered since the second half of 2009
(monthly average growth in number of new orders amounts to 3 %94). This is mainly
caused by foreign demand, because domestic demand is still staying at low volumes,
resulting from tightened fiscal policy and high unemployment rate, which is still
climbing up to 15 % value95 and any improvement can’t be expected on short-term
basis.
The price development is returning to normal one. After 12 months of deflation
between the mid of 2009 and 2010, inflation rate has been showing positive numbers
recently. The period of deflation was, on the other hand important for the process of real
depreciation, since the peg is still being hold. But this real depreciation hasn’t
eliminated the previous real appreciation yet (that occurred especially due to rise in
wages)96. There might be still some real overvaluation (see Graph 1).
Graph 5 – Development of the Latvian REER
Source: (IMF 2010; 7)
Graph 6 - Development of the Latvian REER (CPI based)
All following data comes from Eurostat.
Eurostat data.
95
Source: Macroeconomics.lv
96
The average annual rate of change in prices (based on m/m-12) during 2007-2008 accounted for 12.7
%, while the mentioned period of deflation showed decrease in prices of -1.8 % (same type of
observation). Values based on own calculations.
93
94
159
Source: Eurostat
Fiscal tightening has brought some positive results, but the values still remain
double-digit (10.2 % of GDP in 2009, approximately the same expected for 201097).
Lower ratios were probably not accessible due to the needed maintaining of the social
coverage of poorest and unemployed people. With the economy getting in better
condition in 2011, further measures to reduce the deficit are supported by the financing
providing authorities. The target value should lie around 6 % of GDP. The biggest
problem in this field still remains the lack of willingness to stick by the proposed fiscal
discipline by individual departments and local governments (IMF 2010; 16).
Concerning the financial sector consolidation, the government decided to
restructure the asset portfolio in the most hit bank, the Parex bank. This decision
involved transfer of performing assets and most junior liabilities into a newly set-up
bank, the Parex banka, whereas the other assets and liabilities stayed in the resolution
bank, the Parex bank98. EBRD is a shareholder in both banks (EBRD 2011; 2).
Bettering of the situation can be also illustrated by the downward trend in the
development of the Credit default swaps of Latvian bonds (see Graph 2).
97
98
Eurostat data.
Source: Parex Banka
160
Graph 7 – Development of the Latvian CDS
Source: (IMF 2010; 10)
Very important for the whole process of working-out of the program were the
parliamentary elections that took place in October 2010. If the opposition forces had
won, then the fulfillment of the program would have probably been threatened, because
the opposition parties had not supported its introduction. Fortunately for Latvia the
ruling coalition parties gained the majority in the parliament, which considerably
reduced the existing uncertainty.
Possible future risks for the economy and conclusion
The development of the Latvian economy has been so far rather positive. But still
there remain some possible future risks:
• Further needed fiscal consolidation will be difficult, since the areas that are quite
easy to tap, have been chosen already. Another question will be the political
willingness to proceed this difficult way.
• Internal devaluation and especially improved external demand has helped to raise
the competitiveness of Latvian production, but it will probably be a long way to
raise it to sufficient level, since the restructuring of the economy and factor price
adjustment (especially level of wages) are still at the beginning.
• Level of non-resident deposits is even higher than the pre-crisis level, which may
have negative future implications (IMF 2010; 25).
• Additional risk is involved in possible spillover effect of sovereign debt
difficulties from countries using single European currency (e.g. Ireland, Greece or
Spain). Further crisis could again convince non-residents to withdraw their
deposits from Latvian bank.
To conclude this interesting issue, we would have to say that there are still some
future uncertainties about the development of Latvian economy. Their successful
161
overcoming will strongly depend on the willingness of the political representation to
follow the proposed hard steps, which should in middle term bring the economy into the
position, where it will be able to pass the Maastricht convergence criteria and join the
euro area (Purfield, Rosenberg 2010; 31).
The case of Estonia – brief overview
The development in Estonia could be described with almost similar words and
graphs as the one in Latvia. The economy experienced quite considerable drop in 2008
and 2009, which was mainly caused by the huge decline in domestic demand. This
decline arose from the crush of domestic credit system (illustrated by the table below),
reduced government spending and increased unemployment rate).
Graph 8 – Credit growth (YOY, in %)
Source: (Purfield, Rosenberg 2010; 5)
The GDP decline accounted in 2008 for 5.1 %, in 2009 for 13.9 %. The
performance of the economy in 2010 showed a positive improvement, when it rose by
3.1 %.
162
Graph 9 - Economic development in Estonia
Source: Eurostat
Graph 10 - Economic development in Estonia
Source: Eurostat
Although the development of the main variables might appear to be the same as
in the case of Latvia, there’s been an important difference in financial sector. Estonia
has been showing different structure of this sector (especially concerning the banking
sector). The level of the resident deposits did not decrease during 2008, and, more
163
importantly, the exposure to the non-resident deposits showed much lower values
during the financial crisis, as can be seen on the below stated graph.
Graph 11 - Private non-MFI non-resident deposits (% of total private non-MFI
deposits)
Source: (Purfield, Rosenberg 2010; 28)
The other important feature is that this level did not drop between 2007 and 2009,
as it did especially in case of Latvia. Also the structure of the non-residents is different.
In Latvia, most of these depositors come from the CIS countries, but in Estonia, most of
them are residents of the Northern Europe countries, such as Sweden or Finland.
Reflecting the near complete ownership of the banking system by foreign banks,
Estonia relied on direct support of parents to meet any liquidity needs and negotiated a
direct precautionary swap line with Swedish Riksbank (in place March-December 2009)
to shore up banks’ liquidity buffers under its currency board to insure against any risk of
large scale deposit runs (Ingves 2010; 4). This line was never used.
Based on this development, which was not that destructive for Estonia, it has not
stopped trying to join the euro area. The goal of the Estonian government was to adopt
the single European currency with the beginning of 2011. This date differed from the
originally stated one, because the adoption had to be moved due to the occurrence of the
financial crisis.
164
Table 1 – Maastricht criteria fulfillment in Estonia
General
HICP
Country General
inflation in
governmen governmen
99
excessiv t surplus or t debt (%
e deficit deficit (% of GDP)
of GDP)
2008
2009
2010
10.6
0.2
-0.7
No
No
No
-2.7
-1.7
-2.4
4.6
7.2
9.6
Currency
participatin
g in ERM
II
Yes
Yes
Yes
Exchang
e rate
vis-à-vis
euro10
Longterm
interes
t
rate100
0.0 N/A
0.0 N/A
0.0 N/A
Source: (ECB 2010; 33)
As can be seen from the above stated table, Estonia hadn’t had difficulties with
criteria fulfillment during 2010. The inflation rate showed negative number, -0.7 %
while the reference value accounted for 1.0 %. Overcome seemed to be the problem
with higher inflation rate from 2008, cause mainly by the rise in wages, as the economy
was overheated.
Since Estonia managed, despite experiencing financial crisis, to carry out further
fiscal consolidation, fulfillment of
both fiscal criteria did not constitute any burden.
Additional effort will have to be done to comply with the medium-term budgetary
objective specified in the Stability and Growth Pact, which is quantified in the
convergence program as a slight cyclically adjusted surplus net of one-off and
temporary measures (ECB 2010; 43).
Data on long-term interest rate are not available, since there is no long-term bond
issuing with regard to the low level of general government debt.
The case of Lithuania – brief overview
Lithuania experienced quite the same development in economic terms as Latvia
or Estonia, also with the same reasons.
99
Average annual percentage chase.
For Estonia no long-term interest rate is available.
100
165
Graph 12 – Economic development in Lithuania
Source: Eurostat
Graph 13 – Economic development in Lithuania
Source: Eurostat
166
But again, there was a different development within the financial (banking)
sector. The level of deposits of non-residents dropped between 2007 an 2009, but the
values below 10 % did not constitute such problems as in Latvia. Lithuania, in contrast,
did not rely on external or domestic contingent funding lines. Responding to pressures
on deposits, particularly in Swedish subsidiaries, the Bank of Lithuania reduced its
revere requirement from 6 to 4 percent and the government raised the level of coverage
under the deposit insurance scheme to €100,000. Parent banks provided their
subsidiaries with the liquidity support to meet deposit withdrawals, particularly at the
height of pressures in the fall of 2008 (Purfield, Rosenberg 2010; 27).
Conclusion
The whole Baltic region has been hit quite seriously by the financial and
economic crisis. All three countries had to face at its beginning considerable drop in
domestic demand and, consequently, in national GDP. But more interesting is to follow
the development in financial (or specifically banking) sector, because there the situation
had been different.
Most severe development showed Latvia between 2008 and 2009. The reason was
huge exposure of domestic banking sector to non-resident deposits, which had been
entering the sector especially from the CIS countries. And when the first signs of the
crisis showed up, the deposit deterioration started and caused the unfavorable situation
in Latvia, which has to be solved with the help of external partners.
In other two countries, the ratio of non-resident deposits was much lower and did
not change much (especially in Estonia) during 2008 and 2009.
The question is, whether that development could have been more favorable in
these countries if they had adopted single European currency before the crisis started, or
not. I wouldn’t say so, because the unfavorable development was to some extent caused
by the bad structure of the banking sector. Sure, euro would enhance confidence, but
would not, probably, stop the bank run in Latvia, since the exposure was too high.
167
References
1. Staehr, K. 2010, "The Global Financial Crisis and Public Finances in the New Eu
Countries in Central and Eastern Europe: Developments and Challenges", Public
Finance and Management, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 671.
2. Purfield, C., Rosenberg C. B. 2010, " Adjustment under a Currency Peg: Estonia,
Latvia and Lithuania during the Global Financial Crisis 2008-09 ", IMF Working
Paper WP/10/213.
3. Ingves, S., 2010, "The crisis in the Baltic – the Riksbank’s measures, assessments
and lessons learned"
(http://www.riksbank.com/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_publicerat/Tal/2010/t
al_100202e.pdf)
4. ECB 2010, "Convergence Report 2010"
(http://www.ecb.eu/pub/pdf/conrep/cr201005en.pdf)
5. IMF 2010, " Republic of Latvia: Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement
and Financing Assurances Review, Request for Rephasing of Purchases Under
the Arrangement, and Request for Waiver of Applicability of a Performance
Criterion ", IMF Country Report No. 10/357.
6. IMF 2009, " Republic of Latvia: Request for Stand-By Arrangement—Staff
Report; Staff Supplement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and
Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Latvia ", IMF Country
Report No. 09/3.
7. EBRD 2011. "Latvia" EBRD Factsheets
(http://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/factsheets/latvia.pdf).
8. Parex banka 2011. "History" (http://www.parex.lv/en/history#beginning-of-anew-path-01-08-2010).
9. Parex banka 2011. "History" (http://www.parex.lv/en/history#beginning-of-anew-path-01-08-2010).
10. Macroeconomics.lv 2011 “Registered unemployment rate”
(http://www.macroeconomics.lv/statsdata/74)
COMPETITIVENESS OF CZECH WINE PRODUCERS
DURING FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS101
Ing. Martina FROŇKOVÁ
University of Economics, Prague, Faculty of International Relations
[email protected]
Abstract
Global financial and economic crisis has negatively affected most of EU states. Especially small and
medium export oriented enterprises have felt negative impacts of the crisis significantly. This paper is
focused on real examples and experiences with export clustering. The main aim is to identify whether
it would be beneficial for Moravian wine producers to form wine cluster to support increase in export
activity.
Key words : financial and economic crisis, export, cluster, wine industry, Porter´s diamond
Introduction
The Czech Republic is relatively small export-oriented economy. Three quarters of Czech export is
heading mainly to EU countries. Global financial and economic crisis has negatively affected most of
EU states. Particularly decline in demand for goods and services and increase in commercial risks in
EU states caused difficulties to major Czech exporters.
This negative impact was very significant especially for small and medium export oriented enterprises
that are in competitive preasure of big companies and transnational chain stores. Tough fight for the
market position resulted in effort to create strategic partnerships in order to maintain company’s
competitiveness. As an example of such possibility of strategic partnership the formation of export
clusters102 should be mention. In the Czech Republic it is rather a new tool how to successfully carry
out export activities of the company.
This paper is focused on real examples and experiences that relate to export clustering in wine
industry. This industry is already organized mostly in clusters. Also professor Michael E. Porter, guru
of cluster concept, gives as his first example of such kind of concept the Californian wine cluster.
This paper consists of three main chapters. The first part describes the case study of South Australian
(SA) wine cluster. This one is the most famous and successful wine cluster. This example is used only
as an inspiration how the main objective may be achieved. In second part the wine trade in the Czech
Republic is analysed and the third part focuses on practical formation of export wine cluster in South
Moravia region.
Objective
The main objective is to identify whether it would be beneficial for Moravian wine producer to form
wine cluster as a tool to increase export activity.
Methodology
101
This paper was prepared within the Research Project IGA “Řešení dopadů finanční a ekonomické krize na vývozce v
ČR”, Nr. F2/19/2010
102
There is no official definition of a cluster. To define the cluster in this paper M. E. Porter´s definition will be used.
Porter explains clusters as: ,,Geographically proximate group of interconnected companies and associated institutions in a
particular field, linked by commonalities and complementarities.“
170
To achieve the objective Porter´s diamond model will be used. Formulation of this model will be based
on logical thinking which investigate one matter from all possible angles.
1. Case study of South Australian Wine Cluster
Australia is the 4th largest exporter of wine in the world after France, Italy and Spain. Despite this fact
it is still the 10th largest grape producer. It exports approximately 2.5 million bottles of wine overseas
each day. The number of exporting companies increased remarkably between 1998 and 2004. This
increase was caused by a number of factors, including a fall in the Australian dollar but moreover
adoption of the new strategic vision. This vision was introduced in 1996 and totally changed culture of
the Australian wine industry. This strategy embedded the international branding of Australian wine
and the systemic promotion, extension and adoption of research and development within the
industry.103
,,The SA wine cluster is the largest in all of Australia. In 2009 it accounted for 44% of all of
Australia’s production and 66% of Australian exports while it is home to only 24% of the country’s
wineries. The cluster has experienced significant growth since the mid-1990s. Exports have increased
by over 400% by volume since 1994. However, as figure below shows, exports experienced a plateau
in 2006, and have dipped slightly since 2007.“104 Between 2007 and 2009 all economic sectors were
more or less affected by the financial and economic crisis. The crisis haven´t had fatal impact on the
South Australian wine producers. However there might be changes in consumer preferences which
could be considered as a result of the slight decline in exports in 2007 - 2009.
Figure 1: South Australian Wine Exports 1994 - 2009 (millions of litres)
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Small wineries recognized that the most effective way to compete with the rest of the industry is to
trigger systemic organization and produce consistently high-quality product at reasonable price. This
resulted in mutual communication and cooperation that enable coordinated approach to research and
103
AYLWARD, D. K.: Wine Clusters Equal Export Success [online], University of Wollongong, Faculty of Commerce,
2004 [cit. 2011-04-25]. Retrieved from WWW:
<http://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1082&context=commpapers>.
104
NIPE, A., et al.: The South Australian Wine Cluster - Microeconomics of Competitiveness [online], Harvard Business
School , May 2010 [cit. 2011-04-25]. Retrieved from WWW:
<http://www.isc.hbs.edu/pdf/Student_Projects/South_Australia_Wine_2010.pdf>.
171
development, a well-developed supply chain, sustainable alliances between growers, producers and
support industries, significant public and private sector partnership and a unified marketing strategy.105
The SA wine cluster currently consists of plenty of mainly vertically integrated firms from different
branches that deal with winery e.g. grape growers, wine producers, service providers in the viticulture
fields, sellers of vineyard equipment, manufacturers of bottles, screw-caps and barrels. The cluster also
comprises of viticulture and oenology research bodies and a range of state and federal-level statutory
bodies.
Figure 2: South Australian Wine Cluster Diamond
Source: Harvard University: The South Australian Wine Cluster - Microeconomics of Competitiveness
2010, p. 20
2. Wine trade in the Czech Republic
Wine is the second most popular alcoholic beverage in the Czech Republic. 10 919 Czech enterprises
produce the grape wine on the area of 16 290, 2 hectares. 97,9 % of all enterprises are natural persons
(10 688). The rest are legal entities mostly represnted by liability company (133) and joint stock
companies (only 59).106
105
AYLWARD, D.K.: The road to innovation [online], University of Wollongong, Faculty of Commerce, 2006. Retrieved
from WWW: <http://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1080&context=commpapers&seiredir=1#search="south+australia+wine+cluster>.
106
CSO: Šetření o vinicích 2009 [online]. 2009. Retrieved from WWW:
<http://www.czso.cz/csu/2011edicniplan.nsf/p/2135-11>.
172
Figure 3: The balance of consumption, production and trade of wine in different wine years in the
Czech Republic (in thousands of hectoliters)
total production of wine
wine import
production of white wine
production of red wine
wine export
consumption of wine
Source: Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic: Situační a výhledová zpráva - Réva vinná
a víno 2010, p. 54
Wine consumption has a long growing character in the Czech Republic. While in the wine year
2001/2002 wine consumption amounted 1, 595 million hectoliters, in the wine year 2008/2009
increased to 1, 950 million hectoliters. According to estimation of Ministry of Agriculture
consumption may further increase in the wine year 2009/2010 and would reach 2 million hectoliters.
This had resulted also in continuously increasing import which was discontinued in wine year
2008/2009. The decrease was probably caused by economic crisis. Czech wine producers are not
primarily exporters. Nevertheless over the past five years growing trend of Czech wine export can be
observed. In numbers last six years Czech wine export has significantly increased from 30 000 to 182
000 hectoliters. Unfortunately this growing trend is mainly driven by increase in export of cask wine.
Much more preferable would be increase in export of bottled wine, which is a product with higher
added value. Today Czech Republic exports about 22% of domestic wine production. The wine is
exported mostly to Slovakia (171 000 from 182 000 hectoliters per 341 million CZK) and to Poland
(with total export of 7 000 hectoliters for 12 million CZK).107
During the year 2010 Czech wines were extremely successful in international competitions. That
shows high quality of our wines even in competition with the most renowned wine regions and
107
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC: Situační a výhledová zpráva - Réva vinná a víno
[online].
Praha,
duben
2010.
54
p.
[cit.
2011-04-25].
Retrieved
from
WWW:
<http://www.wineofczechrepublic.cz/ovine/files/VINO%20duben%202010.pdf>. ISBN 978-80-7084-895-1, ISSN 12117692.
173
countries. As an example we can mention absolute third place of all samples of Josef Valihrach
Chardonnay at the prestigious world competition - Chardonnay du Monde.108
3. Creation of Porter´s diamond for Wine Cluster in South Moravia109
While showing the microeconomic business environment this model takes into account four basic
factors - conditions on the input side, corporate strategy and rivalry, demand conditions, related and
supporting industries and additional factors – such a role of government, chance, foreign investment
and neighbouring countries.
A successful cluster has to meet all four conditions. The competitive advantage of the cluster does not
depend on the individual components of the ,,diamond” (or individual firms), but on a coherence of
whole model.110
Figure 3: South Moravian Wine Cluster Diamond
Source: Porter M. E., The Competitive Advantage of Nations 1990, p. 127 (added by author)
3.1. Basic factors
3.1.1. Factor conditions
Factor conditions includes all tangible resources (natural, human and capital), climate, information
structure, legal and administrative systems and scientific and technological infrastructure.
Positives:
• Diversity of soils, relief of landscape character and orientation of our vineyards allow
differentiation from traditional South European wines.
108
WINEOFCZECHREPUBLIC: Třetí nejlepší Chardonnay na světě pochází z Moravy [online]. 16.3.2011. Retrieved from
WWW:
<http://www.wineofczechrepublic.cz/akt2135-treti-nejlepsi-chardonnay-na-svete-pochazi-z-moravy-
cz.html?all=true>.
109
Some data were identified in: JIHOMORAVSKÝ KRAJ: Koncepce rozvoje vinařství České republiky pro období vstupu
ČR do EU.[online]. prosinec 2002. Retrieved from WWW: <http://www.krjihomoravsky.cz/Default.aspx?ID=5067&TypeID=2>.
110
PAVELKOVÁ, D. et al.: Klastry a jejich vliv na výkonnost firem. Praha: Grada Publishing, a.s., 2009. 268 p. ISBN 978-
80-247-2689-2.
174
• Winery is part of Moravian tradition and folklore, winery is dominant industry in regional
agriculture.
In
certain regions of South Moravia there is high unemployment rate.
•
• Decrease of the average age of the vineyards which leads to an increase in average yield. But
anyway it couldn´t reach the standard of other European wine producers.
• Rapid growth of vineyards in recent years.
• Strong linkages in the production chain.
• Skilled labour force.
• Development of new species of grapes especially for our climate conditions.
• The greening of viticulture.
• Attractiveness of the wine-growing areas for tourism and recreation, wine tourism certification.
Negatives
• Relatively high production costs compared to other European competitors.
• Low long-term profitability.
• Insufficient use of certified grapes for production wines with special attribute.
• Absence of a research institution for viticulture. Research in the field is very rare and random
through Grant Agencies of Ministry of Education and Ministry of Agriculture.
Lack
of capital for investments, obsolete manufacturing processes.
•
3.1.2. Corporate strategy and rivalry
Corporate strategy and rivalry represent the local context. That means: local rules, incentives and
standards which control the type and intensity of competition among local players. Corporate strategy
in this model means that the company looks for a different way how to obtain competitive advantage,
deal with customer preferences and how to promote innovation and understand the different market
needs.
Positives
• Common European wine market forces domestic manufacturers to change their business
strategy.
• Simple structure. Only a few of major players divided into 6 wine regions (2 in Bohemia, 4 in
Moravia).
• Implementation of development strategy of wine industry by Jihomoravsky region.
• Export of selected wine brand products mainly to obtain renome.
• South Moravia region has an advantage in the diversity of the viticultural business comparing
to our neighbors in Austria and Germany.
• Introduction of nationwide wine competition.
• Emphasis on marketing activities particulary on participation in trade fairs and exhibitions.
Negatives
• Strived for self-sufficiency.
• Character of the product doesn´t allow competition through quick introduction of new products,
price competition is more powerful tool.
• Industry is dominated by small producers who are usually under-capitalized.
• Wine producers who process grapes from their own production have a very inelastic supply and
they are very limited in reaction on changes in demand.
• Strong dependence of Moravian farmers on the grapes processing businesses. Therefore only a
few companies handle their grapes to bottled phase.
3.1.3. Demand conditions
Demand conditions reflect consumer preferences of sophisticated and demanding customer that
stimulate innovation process and networking among all cluster members.
Positives:
• Long-term trend of increasing consumption of wine.
• Growing demand for high quality wine.
• Consumers perceive Moravian wine as a quality wine. This assumption is supported by awards
from international competitions.
175
• Expansion of speciality wine retailers and wine shops.
• Recent studies have shown that drinking a small amount of wine has a positive effect on human
health.
• Gradually reducing the price difference between qualitative and table wine.
• Success of high quality wines in the Czech gastronomy.
• Increasing knowledge of many consumers about wine culture.
Negatives:
• Large amount of wine is sold through super and hypermarkets which causes a strong pressure
on wine prices.
• Low production of grapes which covers about 45% of wine consumption CR. The remaining
55% have to be imported.
• Large import of foreign wines.
3.1.4. Related and supporting industries
Related and supporting industries include the presence of competitive local suppliers and local firms in
related industries such as in terms of technology, labor, etc.
Positives
• Increasing number of specialized suppliers.
Negatives
• Nonavailability of specialized equipment that is mostly imported from abroad.
• For other inputs (bottles, boxes, corks) is winery only a marginal sales sector.
3.2. Additional factors
3.2.1. Role of the government
Winery is one of the agricultural sectors that are intensively highly regulated by the European Union.
When the Czech Republic joined the European Union it led to legislative changes and harmonization
request in the field.
Positives:
• Updating of wine act.
• In 2008 and 2009 the European Community issued many regulations which affected viticulture
and wine processing.
• Evaluation system and classification system of wines was created.
• Implementation of efficient and useful system of viticulture evidence.
• Formation of institutions whose mission is continuous support of viticulture field (e.g.:
provision of Wine Fund and State Agricultural Intervention Fund).
Rigorous
organization of common wine market in EU.
•
• Possibility of support from the EU funds primarily for restructuring of vineyard.
Negatives:
• Prohibition of planting new vineyard.
• Pressure on reduction of wine areas by the EU.
3.2.2. Chance
Chance often causes shifts in the competitive environment which couldn´t be influenced by companies
or state. Especially for this field e.g.: the course of the weather or the occurrence of harmful
organisms.
3.2.3. FDI
Foreign direct investments play an important role in the competitiveness of less developed countries.
The attractiveness of the wine industry for domestic or foreign investors is small.
3.2.4. Neighbouring countries
For Czech wine producers are neighbouring countries significant factor especially because of
development of wine tourism and export activities.
176
Conclusion
The main objective of this paper was to identify whether it would be beneficial for Moravian wine
producers to form wine cluster for increasing export activity. As one of the most successful example of
export cluster South Australian wine cluster was chosen. This example was only used as an inspiration
for creation of Porter´s diamond for potential South Moravian wine cluster. On the other hand has to
be noticed that South Australia and Czech Republic are incomparable in term of wine export due to
differences in area, climate, history and other factors.
According to Porter´s diamond for potential South Moravian wine cluster we could draw following
conclusions.
Domestic wine growers cover about 45% of domestic consumption of wine. This fact itself eliminates
the possibility of exports. Export opportunities are mainly for larger wine businesses which should
focus on countries that are not typical wine producers such as Poland, Scandinavia and Baltics. The
importance of exports lies mainly in the knowledge of the Czech Republic as a producer of high
quality wines of extraordinary flavor. The fact that Czech winemakers produce wines of finest quality
is supported by a number of awards from international competitions, exhibitions and fairs. However
rise of awareness about domestic wines in the world must be continuous. Also effective marketing
strategies are high important. As I have already mentioned above, the export limitations are more
capacitive character than quality. The current amount of production is not sufficient for a regular,
economically attractive export. Wine production in the Czech Republic is less than a quarter of the
Austrian and Hungarian production. Less wine production than in the Czech Republic is produced only
in smaller countries such as Slovakia, Cyprus and Luxembourg. The way how to increase export
activity is not straightforward. Penetrating new markets, in such strong competition in foreign famous
wine exporters, requires a long-term strategy and work. Increasing export activity of domestic wine
producers would require more governmental support and cooperation between grape growers, wine
producers, service providers and others. Eventhough a single individual couldn´t succeed because of
his size, the group may have higher chance for success. I myself see the sense of mutual cooperation in
a cluster particulary in joint promotion and uniform procedure for certification of quality wines. A
good start is undoubtedly the creation of a unified winery logo and slogan – Vína z Moravy, Vína z
Čech. However it is very important to note that the export of Czech wines will never be a matter of
mass.
177
Literature:
PAVELKOVÁ, D. et al.: Klastry a jejich vliv na výkonnost firem. Praha: Grada Publishing, a.s., 2009.
268 p. ISBN 978-80-247-2689-2.
PORTER, M. E.: The Competitive Advantage of Nations. London: The Macmillan Press Ltd., 1990.
855 p. ISBN 0-333-51804-7.
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of Commerce, 2004 [cit. 2011-04-25]. Retrieved from WWW:
<http://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1082&context=commpapers>.
AYLWARD, D. K.: The road to innovation [online], University of Wollongong, Faculty of
Commerce, 2006. Retrieved from WWW:
<http://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1080&context=commpapers&seiredir=1#search="south+australia+wine+cluster>.
NIPE, A., et al.: The South Australian Wine Cluster - Microeconomics of Competitiveness [online],
Harvard Business School , May 2010. Retrieved from WWW:
<http://www.isc.hbs.edu/pdf/Student_Projects/South_Australia_Wine_2010.pdf>.
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS: Australian wine and grape [online]. December 2010.
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<http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/DB7C11BEDC8F135ECA2577F100
147F86/$File/13290_2010.pdf>.
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vinná a víno [online]. Praha, duben 2010. 54 p. [cit. 2011-04-25]. Retrieved from WWW:
<http://www.wineofczechrepublic.cz/ovine/files/VINO%20duben%202010.pdf>. ISBN 97880-7084-895-1, ISSN 1211-7692.
CSO: Šetření o vinicích 2009 [online]. 2009. Retrieved from WWW:
<http://www.czso.cz/csu/2011edicniplan.nsf/p/2135-11>.
JIHOMORAVSKÝ KRAJ: Koncepce rozvoje vinařství České republiky pro období vstupu ČR do
EU.[online]. prosinec 2002. Retrieved from WWW: <http://www.krjihomoravsky.cz/Default.aspx?ID=5067&TypeID=2>.
WINEOFCZECHREPUBLIC: Třetí nejlepší Chardonnay na světě pochází z Moravy [online].
16.3.2011. Retrieved from WWW: <http://www.wineofczechrepublic.cz/akt2135-treti-nejlepsichardonnay-na-svete-pochazi-z-moravy-cz.html?all=true>.
CZECH EXPORT IN A TIME OF CRISIS
111
Ing. Adam KRČÁL
Katedra mezinárodního obchodu, FMV VŠE v Praze
[email protected]
Introduction
The global economic crisis represents a real danger for the Czech Republic because export
activities are vitally essential for a small and open economy, which are the characteristics very typical
for the Czech Republic. Small and open economies are generally very dependent on their external
economic relations, which may be expressed by the ratio between the volume of the external trade and
the country’s GDP112. Liberal theories in economics state that the main duty of the government is to
ensure that there are only a few obstacles (or even none) for exporters when entering foreign markets.
The government should make the export of their companies as easy as possible. Many countries are
processing in a very efficient and also professional way to fulfil this task. Usually, governments
throughout the world establish their foreign representations, dealing with not only general diplomatic
affairs, consular matters, or cultural questions but also with commercial and trade agenda. There may
be various kinds of government representations abroad; for example, there can be “classic” diplomatic
and consular missions, or, foreign representative offices of government agencies. The main purpose of
these foreign representations, in the field of commerce, should be creating good conditions for
domestic export companies on the local (foreign) market. In many countries, the export promotion
policy forms one important pillar of the economic diplomacy of a country.
The export promotion policy should aim at levelling up the volume of exports, which then
contributes to the overall performance of the economy and enhances also the labour market by creating
new job opportunities. This also helps to improve the productivity of the labour force because bigger
exports enhance the competitiveness growth and the performance of the country in innovations. In the
time of ongoing economic crisis, this need is even stronger.
This article focuses on the analysis of the system of Czech export promotion, which is a subject
of the first part, but also on the development of the balance of trade during the economic crisis, which
can be also very affected by the crisis.
111
112
under grant Nr. IG211040.
see SVATOŠ, M. Zahraniční obchod: teorie a praxe. Prague: Grada, 2009. ISBN 978-80-247-2708-0, p. 22—23.
180
1. Czech Export Promotion Concept
In the Czech Republic, the Export Promotion is based on several different fields of activities
performed by various governmental and non-governmental actors. The Common Trade Policy of the
European Union does not include any export promotion policy. It means that each member state of the
EU has retained its autonomy in this field and executes its own national export promotion policy.
Although this policy is a part of the autonomous sphere of the Czech government, the Czech Republic
has to follow some international rules, like the “OECD Consensus”.
The fundamental national document, which aims to coordinate all the export promotion
activities, is the Export Strategy of the Czech Republic113. There are currently 11 projects in this
Strategy which help to fulfil the main vision, which is to “Promote the Czech Republic in the World
with the help of trade and investments.”
a. Main actors in the Czech Export Promotion Policy
There are several institutions that play a vital role in the Czech export promotion114. The
official institutions, like the President of the Republic, the Government or the Parliament, and others,
certainly influence all the spheres of the public life in the Czech Republic, including the Economic
Diplomacy and the Export Promotion. However, two ministries are essential when speaking about the
export promotion; the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; then also the
government agencies – the CzechTrade and the CzechInvest; and the Czech Export Bank and the
Export Guarantee and Insurance Corporation. However, there is not any proper distinction between the
competencies of these ministries.
Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry for Foreign Affairs
Based on the “Competence Act”115 the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is a central state body for
the Foreign Policy. That includes also all the external economic relations and the foreign development
aid. On the other hand, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is a central state body for the Trade Policy,
Foreign Economic Policy, Foreign Trade and Export Promotion. It is the Competence Act itself where
one can trace the roots of competence problems between the two ministries. As a legally binding piece
of law, the Competence Act does not enable a clear interpretation which body is the one and only
responsible for the Economic Diplomacy of the Czech Republic. Even that there are two political
agreements between the ministries116 aiming to foster cooperation in this field, the problems connected
still prevail.
In present, the Ministry of Industry and Trade sends its own diplomats to the Commercial
Sections of Czech Embassies abroad, while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is responsible for the rest
of the diplomatic personnel of a mission. The Ministry of Industry and Trade organises also the official
state participations at foreign fairs and exhibitions117.
Commercial Sections of Czech Embassies
The Commercial Sections of Czech Embassies play an exceptional role in the whole system.
They should provide Czech companies with support at a local foreign market, with consulting services,
and they also maintain the contact with important foreign business partners and political authorities.
113
Adopted for the period 2006 – 2010 but prolonged also for the year 2011.
see ŠTOURAČOVÁ, J., a kol. Systém řízení ekonomické diplomacie v České republice. Prague: Vysoká škola
mezinárodních a veřejných vztahů Praha, o. p. s., 2010.
115
Act Nr. 2/1969.
116
Dating back to the last decade of the 20th century.
117
Directly for the exporters.
114
181
These official representations also provide Czech exporters with the necessary information about the
business climate at the local market. However, not all the Czech Embassies are able to offer similar
services. Those Embassies that do not include a commercial section can offer only basic services for
exporters because they usually consist of the Head of Mission and one or two other diplomats only.
Services are provided on the basis of a codex of cooperation with companies118 issued by the
Ministry of Industry and Trade together with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. According to this codex,
it is necessary for all the exporters to exploit all the information sources available first and only after
contact a commercial section of a Czech embassy.
Czech Council for Trade and Investments
The Czech Council for Trade and Investments119 is an advisory body of the minister of Industry
and Trade composed from the representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Finances,
Confederation of Industry of the Czech Republic, Czech Chamber of Commerce, and Association of
small and medium-sized enterprises and crafts of the Czech Republic.
CzechTrade Agency
The government agency CzechTrade is relatively closest to Czech exporters. A bigger
flexibility and a faster reaction to the change of conditions at foreign markets is one of the advantages
of this agency. It represents one of the key parts in the Czech Export Promotion Policy. As an
allowance organization of the Ministry of Industry and Trade the CzechTrade provides highly
individual services ranging from consulting, and the assistance at foreign markets to courses of the
Export Academy. The CzechTrade also participates in the foreign fairs and exhibitions. Its foreign
offices are also capable to offer selections of the potential business contacts or mediate the business
negotiation and provide suitable related services. The CzechTrade services are not free of charge but
there are considerable contributions from the State Budget. Czech exporters can exploit them in
accordance with the “de minimis”120 rules of the European Union.
Czech Export Bank, Export Guarantee and Insurance Corporation
The financial export promotion, i.e. financing and insurance of the export with a state support,
is provided especially by the Czech Export Bank and by the Export Guarantee and Insurance
Corporation. Both institutions are fully owned by the Czech Republic and the state assumes guarantee
over all their obligations. The state supports exports by soft loans and bank guarantees. The Czech
Export Bank offers direct and refinancing loans, the interest rate being at the lowest level possible. The
bank offers also other services like letters of credit. The Czech Export Bank offers also services for the
SME121 sector. However, there is a big challenge for the bank to make these services really available
for this sector.
The government insurance support is assured by the Export Guarantee and Insurance
Corporation. The insurance of export loans can be provided in a short-term, middle-term or long-term
form. It is possible to cover guarantees and investments abroad and these insurance products are
applicable also to the SME sector. There are two crucial types of risk: the territorial political risks and
commercial risks. While the political risks may be covered by commercial insurance companies with
big difficulties, the commercial risks may be covered also this way.
118
see http://download.mpo.cz/get/26457/48098/571282/priloha003.pdf.
see http://download.mpo.cz/get/29542/32054/339676/priloha002.doc.
120
The European Union „de minimis“ (state aid) regulation allows for aid of up to €200,000 to be provided from public
funds to any enterprise over a period of three years.
121
see NEJEDLÝ, M. Státní podpora financování exportu malých a středních firem v době finanční a hospodářské krize. In
TAUŠER, J. -- KRAJČÍK, D. (ed.). Česká republika a Slovensko v mezinárodním obchodě a podnikání. Vliv finanční krize
na mezinárodní podnikání. Prague: Oeconomica, 2010, p. 263--270. ISBN 978-80-245-1583-0.
119
182
The Czech Export Bank and the Export Guarantee and Insurance Corporation work according
to the State Aid Export Insurance and Financing Act122. These two institutions were, actually, the first
highly specialized export promotion institutions after 1989. The law respects all the obligations
binding for the Czech Republic as a member of the OECD and the EU. There was also a decree of the
Ministry of Finances123 issued to implement the law. The Czech Republic has to respect also the socalled OECD Consensus rules124 that state the conditions under which the Czech Republic may
provide the domestic exporters with the state financial aid. The rules of the Council of the EU are also
binding for the Czech Republic125.
Other institutions and Non-state export promotion
There are other actors that participate in the export promotion system, like the CzechInvest and
the CzechTourism agencies, the Czech centres and the honorary consulates of the Czech Republic
abroad. We cannot omit the influence of the compatriot associations that may positively affect the
image of the Czech Republic.
The non-state export promotion in the Czech Republic is represented especially by the
professional associations, like the Confederation of Industry of the Czech Republic, Czech Chamber of
Commerce, Association of small and medium-sized enterprises and crafts of the Czech Republic, and
International Chamber of Commerce. They all are potentially very strong because they are directly
related to the exporters. However, not all the professional associations provide as many services as
they could.
b. State Export Promotion in the time of Crisis
Economic Crisis brings, besides other consequences, also pressures on the decline of exports
but also on the decline of imports, and the total foreign trade is like slowing down. This phenomenon
appears not only in the national economy but also globally together with the crisis spreading into the
whole World. Very frequent reactions in the course of crisis are represented by protectionist steps
which are aiming at protection of economic subjects against unfavorable external influences.
Protectionist measures are naturally “poisonous” for the subsequent development of the
international trade and they negatively influence the balance of commercial flows between states.
Therefore, the economic crisis mainly acts against contemporary liberal trends. Those states whose
markets are big enough and with sufficient domestic demand can compensate certain cuts in exports
with the help of their domestic demand. However, states which have to rely only on the external
environment can suffer a lot from the crisis.
So, these are also the reasons why it is very important to support the Czech domestic export,
either by direct or indirect promotion of exporters themselves or by settings of the commercial
relations (e.g. on the bilateral political-economic level) so that the domestic producers experience the
economic crisis as least as possible. The State should, first of all, remove obstacles, which are,
unfortunately, more numerous during the crisis.
We can divide the services provided by the state, or by the state institutions respectively, into
several basic groups (according to providers):
•
•
•
122
Official state participations in the foreign trade and fairs;
Services provided by the Commercial Sections of Czech Embassies abroad;
Services provided by the CzechTrade agency;
Act. Nr. 58/1995.
Decree Nr. 278/1998.
124
Arrangement on officially supported export credits. See BALÁŽ, P., a kol. Medzinárodne podnikanie. Bratislava:
Sprint, 2005. ISBN 80-89085-51-2, p. 308—309.
125
2001/76/EC: Council Decision of 22 December 2000 replacing the Decision of 4 April 1978 on the application of
certain guidelines in the field of officially supported export credits - Arrangement on guidelines for officially supported
export credits.
123
•
183
Services provided by the Czech Export Bank and the Export Guarantee and Insurance
Corporation.
As far as the official state participations in the foreign trade and fairs are concerned, their
number went down from 2008 to 2010 by 75 % and the amount determined to their realization in 2010
fell as well126. The increase in the participation of the state in the foreign fairs and trades represents
one of the most efficient ways of export promotion of the Czech producers and, therefore, a decline of
this support does not work in the anti-crisis manner.
However, the CzechTrade agency proved to be very useful in the course of the economic crisis
and there was a significant increase in demand for its services. The volume of client exports supported
by the CzechTrade services went up from CZK 3 billion in 2007 to CZK 5.5 billion in 2008127.
There was also an obvious “crisis” reaction from the institutions providing financial export
promotion. In 2010, the Czech Export Bank accorded new loans in the amount of almost CZK 40
billion128, while in the previous years it was CZK 25 billion in 2009 and CZK 20 billion in 2008
respectively. It is a real anti-crisis measure by which the government decided to promote export during
the economic crisis. This increase was enabled by additional sources for the Czech Export Bank
provided by the Czech government. “In the case of the Czech Export Bank, there was an increase in
the basic capital up to CZK 4 billion (from CZK 2.950 billion) and the bank received budget finances
(CZK 741.7 million) for financing of export with a state support.”129 Analogically, there was an
increase in the insurance capacity of the Export Guarantee and Insurance Corporation up to CZK 200
billion (by CZK 50 billion). “A similar demand for services was noticed in the Export Guarantee and
Insurance Corporation which expects, by the end of 2010, the volume of new insurance contracts in
the amount of CZK 65 billion, which is another increase compared to the “record” year 2009 (CZK 62
billion) and substantially more than in the pre-crisis period (CZK 30-40 billion).”130
2. Development of the Balance of Trade in the course of crisis
Dynamics in the Balance of trade
The economic crisis always necessarily brings about, besides changes in the GDP and other
macroeconomic entities also influence on the dynamics and structure of the Balance of Trade of each
state concerned. As already stated, the Czech Republic is a small and very open economy which is
highly dependent on its external economic relations. This dependency has been very typical for the
Czech Republic since the 1990s and, therefore, we may classify the Czech Republic as an exportoriented economy. Since 1990s, there has been also a stable tendency of the increase in the share of the
Czech exports (goods and services) in the GDP of the country. While in 1995, this ratio was about 51
%, in 2004 it was already 70 %, and in 2010 even 79.3 %. As shown in the Figure 1, the peak was
attained in 2007. Then there was a fast and deep decline, causes probably by the economic crisis and
by the weakening world demand. However, between 2009 and 2010, there was again a significant
growth up to almost 80 %. This ratio is thus related to the phase of the economic cycle the country is
undergoing. Exports are among the basic elements of the GDP and very influence its development. If
the exports decline the GDP growth slows down and vice-versa.
126
Interim reports on the Export Strategy of the Czech Republic 2006 – 2010; years 2008, 2009 and 2010 (more materials),
available on http://www.mpo.cz.
127
http://www.czechtrade.cz/o-czechtrade/predstaveni/vysledky.
128
Interim reports on the Export Strategy of the Czech Republic 2006 – 2010; years 2008, 2009 and 2010 (more materials),
available on http://www.mpo.cz.
129
Interim report on the Export Strategy of the Czech Republic 2006 – 2010; year 2010. [on-line]. mpo.cz [cit. 2010-0415]. available on http://download.mpo.cz/get/43270/48544/573474/priloha001.pdf, p. 3.
130
Interim report on the Export Strategy of the Czech Republic 2006 – 2010; year 2010. [on-line]. mpo.cz [cit. 2010-0415]. available on http://download.mpo.cz/get/43270/48544/573474/priloha001.pdf, p. 3.
184
Figure 1 – Exports/GDP ratio of the Czech Republic compared with the Antal GDP growth rate in the Czech Republic (data source: Czech Statistical Office) The balance of trade, which represents a balance between exports and imports of goods, is a
very important part of the current account of the balance of payment. This balance (negative or
positive) and its dynamics give a basic piece of information about the quality of the country’s external
relations. It can be measured as a share of the GDP. Figure 2 shows the dynamics of this indicator in
the Czech Republic in some other countries from 1995. It is obvious that the Czech Republic reached
very good results in comparison with other territories and improved its balance from the 8 % GDP
deficit to 5 % GDP surplus.
Figure 2 – Balance of trade/GDP ratio (data source: EUROSTAT) Figure 3 – Development of the Balance of trade in the Czech Republic in CZK million in current prices (data source: Czech Statistical Office) Year
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Exports
553 767
595 118
708 030
833 277
903 558
1 124 031
1 272 480
1 255 338
185
Imports
661 314
749 769
862 869
917 037
968 737
1 245 370
1 389 527
1 326 644
Balance
-107 547
-154 651
-154 839
-83 760
-65 179
-121 339
-117 047
-71 306
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Exports
1 372 016
1 716 946
1 865 746
2 149 702
2 484 895
2 463 335
2 104 927
2 468 389
Imports
1 441 933
1 729 926
1 806 365
2 084 994
2 364 396
2 362 889
1 939 907
2 334 585
Balance
-69 917
-12 980
59 381
64 708
120 499
100 446
165 020
133 804
After huge deficits of the Balance of trade in the second half of the 1990s and in the begging of
the new millennium, there was a first surplus in 2005. The arrival of the economic crisis is very
evident between 2009 and 2010 when there was a decline of the surplus by CZK 32 billion. Although
the Czech Republic was highly affected by the crisis, the exports in 2008 and 2009 were still very
good (compared to the previous years). So, combined with the decline in imports (mainly in 2009, due
to the weakened domestic demand), the Balance of trade was in a big surplus even during the crisis.
Moreover, the 2010 data indicate an optimistic future. However, it very important to mention that
many small Czech business companies were not able to face the competition on the foreign markets
and during the crisis, due to the weakened demand, unfavourable exchange rate and worse access to
loans, had to declare bankruptcy. Considering the total volume of the foreign trade and its change
during the crisis, in 2008 it was CZK 4 880 225 million (of which CZK 2 473 736 million were
exports and CZK 2 406 489 million were imports)131. In 2009, there was a decline to the total volume
of CZK 4 127 659 million (of which CZK 2 138 623 million were exports and CZK 1 989 036 million
were imports). Year 2010 brought a redress of the foreign trade volume when it attained CZK
4 908 906 million (of which CZK 2 515 865 million were exports and CZK 2 393 041 million were
imports). The freshest data available from January 2011 indicate an optimistic trend when there was a
surplus in the Balance of trade of CZK 15.5 billion (January 2010: CZK 15 billion).
Commodity structure of the Balance of trade during the crisis
As far as the commodity structure of the balance of trade of the Czech Republic, and its
changes during the crisis, are concerned, the data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade show that
the Czech Republic is traditionally very dependent on the export of machinery and transport facilities.
In 2010, export of the mentioned commodities represented 54 % of the total export volume. Moreover,
this share did not change a lot from 2008. This is also a group of goods where the Czech Republic
reaches the highest surpluses. The fact that, despite a general decline in demand due to a crisis, mainly
on the Western markets, there were no significant changes can be explained by a successful entry of
Czech exporters onto the Eastern markets, including the Chinese market. Czech Republic is thus very
successful in export of these commodities. On the other hand, this one-sided orientation and
dependency (especially on exporting cars and accessories) is potentially very dangerous and makes the
Czech Republic very vulnerable and susceptible to any rapid changes in the global demand.
The biggest relative changes between 2008 and 2010 in the commodity structure of exports
were noted for example for the commodities like animal fat, vegetable oil and non-specified goods.
However, the volatility of these commodities is probably caused by small total volumes when every
partial change can cause a large relative annual change.
The structure of imports is traditionally dominated also by the machinery and transport
facilities, but the Czech Republic strongly imports other commodities like industrial products,
chemicals and mineral oils. There was general decline in imports during the crisis but between 2008
131
source: [on-line]. mpo.cz [cit. 2011-03-19], available on: http://www.mpo.cz/cz/zahranicni-obchod/statistika-zahrobchod/.
186
and 2009 the biggest relative decline was noted for the imports of mineral oils. Imports of machinery
went down on 82.6 % of the 2008 value. Between 2009 and 2010, on the other hand, imports of all
commodity groups increased, the highest increase being for mineral oils and machinery. This fact
clearly shows that these two commodities react more than others to an economic slowdown or growth
in the Czech Republic. The biggest deficits are reached for the mineral oils which have to be imported
because of lack of Czech domestic sources, and also in chemicals.
Figure 4 – Balance of trade with commodities in CZK million (data source: Ministry of Industry and Trade) 2008
2009
2010
Total foreign trade of the Czech Republic
67 247
149 587
122 824
0 Food and live animals
-27 303
-32 993
-35 038
1 Beverages and tabac
3 726
2 704
2 457
2 Inedible raw materials, without fuels
498
12 749
11 867
-165 920
-106 395
-135 750
4 Animal and vegetable fats and oils
-1 703
-2 539
172
5 Chemicals
-99 778
-86 198
-90 806
8 045
25 393
10 127
336 195
324 250
327 878
8 Various industrial products
14 208
12 896
32 155
9 Non-specified
-721
-280
-238
3 Mineral oils and fuels, lubricants and
related materials
6 Market products according to the type of
material
7 Machinery and transport equipment and
facilities
Territorial structure of the Balance of trade during the crisis
It is nothing new under the sun to say that the Czech Republic realizes most of its foreign trade
with other developed market economies. In 2010, 73.9 % of the total foreign trade volume falls on
other EU27 states, of which Germany represents 28.8 %132. This percentage did not change a lot (the
same applies for other markets) in the course of the crisis.
In 2010, the Czech export to the developed market economies represented 90.1 % of the total
exports, 83.9 % of exports going to the other EU27 states. This share declined by 1.4 pp between 2008
and 2010. 4 % of the exports were realized in 2010 with developing countries (2008: 3.3 %, 2009: 4.3
%). Another 4 % accounted for the Commonwealth of Independent States (2008: 4.3 %, 2009: 3.5 %).
There was a slight increase in the export to China (in total by CZK 10 billion annually between 2008
and 2010).
Imports are not as clear as exports. In total, 71.4 % imports to the Czech Republic in 2010
come from the advanced market economies, 63.4 % being from the EU27 countries. Share of the
advanced market economies declined from 2008 to 2010 by almost 4 pp, while the share of imports
from the developing countries increased in the same period by almost 2 pp. Also the share of imports
from China increased (by 3.4 pp).
As far as the territorial balance of trade is concerned, there are large surpluses in trade with the
advanced market economies. However, this surplus is only thanks to the trade with the EU27 and
EFTA countries because with other advanced market economies, there is a deficient trade balance. A
long-term passive balance is very typical for the Czech trade with developing countries, with the
Commonwealth of Independent States and also China. As for the territorial structure, the Czech
Republic is thus also very one-side oriented.
132
source: [on-line]. mpo.cz [cit. 2011-03-19], available on: http://www.mpo.cz/cz/zahranicni-obchod/statistika-zahrobchod/.
187
Figure 5 – Balance of trade with territories in CZK million (data source: Ministry of Industry and Trade) 2008
2009
2010
67 247
149 587
122 824
* Advanced market economies
424 035
436 334
558 626
** EU27
496 565
484 154
593 016
of which: Germany
116 334
165 833
192 407
Slovakia
94 234
78 323
97 374
4 800
6 832
8 983
-77 330
-54 652
-43 373
-2 569
-983
-499
-6 510
-7 590
-9 135
-62 838
-45 259
-86 004
-1 092
-13
2 537
1 920
2 273
4 110
-3 243
2 153
1 166
16 376
12 455
12 839
-107 238
-58 856
-83 517
-87 284
-52 985
-62 472
5 727
3 162
-2 666
-202 808
-187 944
-271 861
-199 375
-184 086
-268 278
-280
-7 143
-7 259
352 089
379 991
479 480
Total foreign trade of the Czech Republic
** EFTA
** Other advanced market economies
of which: Canada
USA
* Developing countries
of which: Brazil
India
Turkey
* European states with transition economies
* Commonwealth of Independent States
of which: Russia
Ukraine
* Other
of which: China
* Non-specified
Foreign trade with OECD countries
Conclusion
From the business point of view, the system of export promotion represents only a certain offer
of services of individual institutions. This approach to the economic diplomacy is very understandable
and pragmatic. Exporters are not very interested in theoretical questions related to the institutional
structure of the economic diplomacy and competencies. They behave very rationally and follow their
own economic interest. In the Czech Republic, the most of the economic agents are somehow in
contact with abroad. The overall offer of export promotion services is included in the publication
called “Export v kostce” which is issued twice a year by the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
Every national export promotion program should be as efficient as possible in order to provide
useful services for domestic exporters, especially in a time of economic crisis. The Czech Republic is
very dependent on the external economic relations because it is a typical open economy whose export
highly contributes to its GDP. Therefore, every considerable change in the foreign demand, especially
within the European Union, for the imported goods highly affects the whole of the Czech exports. For
these reasons, it is very essential for the state to help the Czech exporters with their activities,
especially in the course of the World financial and economic crisis.
There are several institutions in the Czech Republic which take part in the whole Export
Promotion System. The competences are not clearly divided among these institutions, which causes
188
political problems and negatively affects the efficiency of the whole system. The exporters, on the
other hand, expect especially individual services focused on practice.
To sum up, there is a strong dependency on the development in the Western economies and on
the neighbour markets. The commodity and the territorial structure of the Czech Republic foreign trade
stayed almost unchanged in the course of the contemporary economic crisis.
Sources:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Act Nr. 2/1969.
Act. Nr. 58/1995.
BALÁŽ, P., a kol. Medzinárodne podnikanie. Bratislava: Sprint, 2005. ISBN 80-89085-51-2.
Council Decision Nr. 2001/76/EC of 22 December 2000.
Decree Nr. 278/1998.
6. Interim report on the Export Strategy of the Czech Republic 2006 – 2010; year 2008. [on-line].
mpo.cz [cit. 2010-04-15].
mpo.cz [cit. 2010-04-15].
mpo.cz [cit. 2010-04-15].
9. MPO a MZV. Zásady spolupráce zastupitelských úřadů České republiky s českými
podnikatelskými subjekty v obchodně ekonomické oblasti (KODEX). Prague: Ministerstvo
průmyslu a obchodu, Ministerstvo zahraničních věcí, 2004.
10. NEJEDLÝ, M. Státní podpora financování exportu malých a středních firem v době finanční a
hospodářské krize. In TAUŠER, J. -- KRAJČÍK, D. (ed.). Česká republika a Slovensko v
mezinárodním obchodě a podnikání. Vliv finanční krize na mezinárodní podnikání. Prague:
Oeconomica, 2010. ISBN 978-80-245-1583-0.
11. PETŘÍČEK, V. Česká podpora podnikání v evropském kontextu. Prague: Corona
Communications, 2007. ISBN 978-80-903954-2-8.
12. SVATOŠ, M. Zahraniční obchod: teorie a praxe. Prague: Grada, 2009. ISBN 978-80-2472708-0, p. 22—23.
13. ŠTOURAČOVÁ, J., a kol. Systém řízení ekonomické diplomacie v České republice. Prague:
Vysoká škola mezinárodních a veřejných vztahů Praha, o. p. s., 2010.
189
ANALYSES DE PROCESSUS DÉCISIONNEL DÁCHAT DANS UNE
ENTREPRISE MULTINATIONALE
Martin MACHEK
Département Marketing
Faculté dÁdministration des Entreprises
Université dÉconomie de Prague
[email protected]
Introduction Dans cet article, je vais me concentrer sur la problématique du positionnement prix. Lóbjectif de mon
travail est dánalyser les différents aspects liés aux analyses du positionnement et dámener la
meilleure compréhension de ce processus. En sáppuyant sur les connaissances théoriques, je vais
analyser le processus décisionnel dáchat du client et les moyens de mesure de la compétitivité prix
pendant différents étapes de ce processus. Je vais présenter différents indices et les problèmes liés à
leurs collecte et à leurs analyse. Jáppliquerai le concept théorique à la pratique dúne entreprise
multinationale.
Indices de prix Dans lénvironnement concurrentiel, le résultat dúne action marketing nést pas défini juste par sa
valeur absolue, mais aussi par sa valeur relative par rapport aux concurrents. La plupart des actions
menées par l’entreprise, y compris sa politique des prix, doivent prendre en considération les réactions
des concurrents. La dépendance entre l’action d’un acteur sur le marché et les réactions des autres doit
être analysée et prise en considération pendant la phase préparatoire des actions visées. La politique de
prix représente avec la politique de produit les deux parties essentielles du mix- marketing.
„La politique prix est lénsemble des décisions qui définissent le niveau du prix de vente pour chaque
produit de chaque ligne de chaque gamme, eu égard aux avantages concurrentiels de l ‘entreprise sur le
marché de référence et compte tenu du rapport de force dont elle bénéficie sur les réseaux de
distribution et sur l’offre directement concurrentielle.”133
Il existe deux approches principales de fixation des prix au niveau international :
-
approche fondée sur le calcul des coûts
approche fondée sur lánalyse du marché
Mayrhofer constate que dans la réalité, la plupart des entreprises combinent les techniques fondées sur
le calcul des coûts et les méthodes fondées sur lánalyse du marché. En calculant les coûts, léntreprise
peut identifier le prix plancher. Lánalyse de la demande permet de déterminer le prix plafond et
lánalyse concurrentielle permet d´évaluer le prix moyen du marché.134
Selon Croué, on parle de la politique internationale des prix lorsque les prix sont fixés en fonction du
niveau de ceux du marché et en intégrant des critères propres à léntreprise.
„La politique internationale des prix est une action qui consiste à fixer avec méthode le niveau d’un
prix de vente pour chaque produit d’une gamme, par circuit de distribution et par couple
133
134
Croué Charles, Marketing International, page 448
Mayrhofer Ulrike, Marketing International, page 134
190
produit/marché. Ce niveau de prix doit optimiser le volume des ventes et la marge commerciale pour
chaque ligne de produits sur le marché étranger considéré. Elle intègre la dynamique économique et
concurrentielle du marché.“135
En utilisant l’approche marketing, l’entreprise intègre les données concurrentielles du couple
produit/marché, cést à dire lánalyse des positions des concurrents directs (parts de marché, volume,
niveau de prix par produit). La connaissance du niveau des prix des marques concurrentes est un
préalable au positionnement. Le mot positionnement doit se comprendre comme « par rapport à ».
Selon les données reçues, la politique sera de double nature, liée au produit et à son prix. Comme le
souligne Croué, les prix doivent être repositionnés régulièrement selon les manoeuvres et tactiques
concurrentielles.
L’environnement turbulent nécessite que les entreprises élaborent les systèmes d’intelligence sur les
concurrents et la mise en place de différentes formes de suivi des concurrents. Plusieurs outils peuvent
être utilisés pour atteindre cette condition clef de succès, dont les différentes méthodes d’analyse de la
compétitivité.
Analyse de compétitivité „Lánalyse de compétitivité est une exploration des entreprises dans un secteur dáctivité donné, qui
fait concurrence aux produits/services d’une entreprise pour la part de marché“136
Il ságit en général d’une analyse dún nombre limité des principaux concurrents sous la forme de
recherche profonde. Si le nombre des concurrents suivi augmente, le niveau déxploration a tendance
de diminuer.
Lánalyse de compétitivité est typique surtout pour les organisations bénéficiaires, mais peut être
réalisée de même façon pour les organisations non bénéficiaires, portant le nom dúne analyse
comparative.
Les bénéfices essentiels dúne analyse de compétitivité sont surtout la possibilité de comprendre les
stratégies des concurrents – suivre leur actions, leur offre pour les consommateurs, leur façon de
maintenir et développer lávantage concurrentiel. Ces données peuvent ensuite être exploitées dans la
préparation des plans stratégiques de l’entreprise. On peut aussi identifier les meilleures pratiques,
c'est-à-dire ce qui marche bien pour les concurrents. Lánalyse de compétitivité peut prendre plusieurs
formes, qui dépendent du projet, les questions mises en place et les ressources disponibles. La plupart
des suivis contiennent des résumés, recommandations prioritaires, graphiques et diagrammes.
Une des approches consiste à faire des échelles de positionnement et d’appréciation des concurrents.
En développant les indices, les concurrents obtiennent un score qui représente leur positionnement par
rapport à la base 100% de produit de l’entreprise. Ces indices peuvent être suivis dans le temps, ce qui
permet d´évaluer l’évolution du positionnement des produits par rapport aux concurrents et límpact
des nouveaux équipements/ campagnes publicitaires/ prix sur le positionnement.
Présentation de léntreprise etudiée La Direction des véhicules utilitaires (DVU) de Renault est une division dédiée à la conception, la
fabrication et la commercialisation des véhicules utilitaires (VU). C’est une entité autonome,
responsable de son chiffre d’affaires et de ses résultats financiers. Véhicules utilitaires constituent une
activité stratégique pour la plupart des grands constructeurs d’automobiles. C’est un marché
dynamique, qui a dépassé 9 millions de véhicules vendus en 2007. Il représente 27% du marché
135
Croué Charles, Marketing International, page 453
136
Jason Withrow, Competitive analysis: Understanding the Market Context
191
automobile mondial. Dans les pays développés, les VU répondent aux besoins des flottes d'entreprises
qui représentent en Europe Occidentale près de 30% des ventes de véhicules particuliers et de
véhicules utilitaires. Les acheteurs de flottes privilégient les constructeurs offrant à la fois les deux
types de véhicules. Dans les pays émergents, le VU est un vecteur d'entrée sur les marchés locaux. Le
marché du VU vise les professionnels comme les artisans, les commerçants, les PME et PMI, mais
aussi les collectivités et les administrations ou encore les entreprises nationales ou internationales, les
loueurs, ainsi que les particuliers pour le transport de personnes.
Renault est la première marque de véhicules utilitaires en Europe depuis 1998. En 2007, sa part de
marché en Europe était de 14, 3% avec le chiffre d’affaires de 7,6 milliards d’euros. 6300
collaborateurs de la DVU ont participé à la facturation de 456 000 véhicules en 2007.137
La DVU définit et met en place la politique Véhicules Utilitaires de Renault en intégrant des directions
de projet, une ingénierie dédiée, des usines de fabrication en France et à l'étranger, et des directions
centrales (Direction Commerciale, Direction du Marketing Avancé, Direction des Affaires
Economiques et du Contrôle de Gestion, Direction Qualité et Services).
Le périmètre des produits de la DVU concerne les VU de 1,6 à 6,5 tonnes. La gamme couvre les
segments fourgonnettes et fourgons, aussi bien pour le transport de marchandises que pour le transport
de personnes. La gamme VU se compose de 4 produits : Kangoo, Trafic, Master et Master Propulsion.
Renault possède plusieurs usines de production dédiées aux véhicules utilitaires dont les plus
importantes sont situées en France à Maubeuge (Kangoo) et à Batilly (Master) avec une capacité de
production respective de 230 000 véhicules par an et de 94 000 véhicules par an. Renault Trafic est
fabriqué en Angleterre à Luton (usine de General Motors) ainsi qu’en Espagne à Barcelone (usine de
Nissan) avec des capacités de production de 86 000 véhicules/an et 64 000 véhicules/an.
La problématique
Sur le marché des Véhicules Utilitaires, il existe plusieurs notions de prix. Les différences dans
l´équipement aussi bien que les offres promotionnelles (les remises et les rabais) influencent la
perception du consommateur pendant son processus d’achat. Chaque notion doit être examinée,
mesurée et mise en perspective du positionnement de Renault par rapport à ses concurrents. Cést pour
cela qu’il faut que les différents indices soient mis en place pour permettre d’identifier l´évolution de
ces différentes notions de prix.
Pour présenter les différents indices qui sont utilisés par Renault pour mesurer la compétitivité de leurs
véhicules, je resterai dans une logique de consommateur et son processus décisionnel d’achat d’un
véhicule. L’intention des indices Renault est de mesurer le positionnement pendant différentes étapes
de ce processus.
Le processus décisionnel d’achat du consommateur
Comme présenté dans la littérature (Kotler, Helfer et Orssoni), le processus d’achat du consommateur
commence avant que le produit soit choisit et continue même après le moment de réalisation de
l’achat.138 Le modèle graduel du processus décisionnel montre le processus d’achat complexe, qui
concerne surtout l’achat des produits coûteux avec le haut niveau d’intérêt de l’acheteur. Ceci est le
cas d’achat d’un véhicule utilitaire, qui représente un produit complexe. Ce modèle identifie et analyse
5 étapes majeures, ce que montre le graphique suivant :
137
138
Source : données internes Renault
Kotler Philippe, Marketing Management, page 214
192
Graphique 1.1 : Processus décissionel dáchat
Reconnaissance du
problème
Recherche
d’information
Evaluation
des
alternatives
Décision
d’achat
Sentiment
postachat
Source : Kotler, Marketing management, page 196
Reconnaissance du problème
Le processus de décision d’achat commence au moment ou le consommateur prend en compte son
besoin, c’est à dire quand il sent l’écart entre l’état demandé et l’état réel. Le besoin peut être causé par
les stimuli internes ou externes. Les stimuli internes se produisent lorsque l’une des pulsions
fondamentales dépasse un certain seuil d’alerte. Le client sait grâce à ses expériences antérieures
comment satisfaire ces besoins. Les stimuli externes proviennent de l’extérieur de l’individu. Par
exemple dans le cas dún artisan, le besoin dún VU peut être ressenti lorsquíl lance son activité ou
renouvelle son parc.
Le besoin peut ressortir de la situation où l’état demandé reste invariable, mais l’état réel a changé de
façon négative, par exemple si un produit est endommagé, si les prix ont augmentés ou dans le cas
d’épuisement du stock.
Le besoin peut aussi ressortir de la situation où l’état demandé augmente et l’état réel reste invariable.
Ceci arrive dans le cas des produits innovants, quand le consommateur augmente ses prétentions avec
l’introduction des nouveautés sur le marché. Une autre des raisons est le changement des conditions,
qui sont appréciées par le consommateur. Il peut s’agir de la diminution des prix, d’amélioration de la
situation financière etc.
Recherche d’informations
La prochaine étape de processus de décision d’achat représente la recherche d’informations. Après que
le consommateur ait pris en considération son besoin, il récupère le plus d’informations possibles. Le
consommateur peut soit mobiliser ses sources internes en utilisant les réseaux d’association de sa
mémoire, soit il peut procéder à la recherche d’informations dans son environnement. Le degré d’effort
dépend de sa motivation. Si celle ci est élevée, le consommateur procède à la recherche active. Kotler
divise les sources d’informations en 4 catégories principales139 :
-
les sources personnelles : la famille, les amis, voisins,
les sources commerciales : publicité, les vendeurs, les brochures,
les sources publiques : médias, tests comparatif des revues spécialisées,
les sources liées à l’expérience : examen et manipulation des produits.
L’importance de chaque source est influencée par le type de produit et par la personnalité de chaque
consommateur. La plupart des informations provient des sources commerciales, c’est à dire des
sources qui peuvent être influencés par le marketing. L’influence des sources personnelles est plus
efficace, parce que ces sources sont plus crédibles aux yeux des consommateurs. Philippe Kotler
postule que chaque type de source a son rôle. Quant les sources commerciales avant tout informe le
consommateur, les sources personnelles l’aident davantage à évaluer les alternatives. Dans le cas d’un
achat professionelle, les sources principales sont en général les sources commerciales et les sources
liées à l’expérience.
139
Kotler, Dubois, Marketing management, page 215
193
Evaluation des alternatives
Le consommateur perçoit un produit comme l’ensemble des caractéristiques auxquelles il attache une
importance différente selon leur utilité présumée. Les modèles de processus de décision d’achat des
consommateurs sont basés sur l’hypothèse que le consommateur décide de façon rationnelle.
Les méthodes les plus communes de l’évaluation des alternatives sont :140
-
-
modèle de la valeur présumée : le consommateur choisit le produit qui lui apporte la plus grande
utilité. Il s’agit de la stratégie de compensation, quand une valeur positive d’un critère peut
contrebalancer une valeur moins positive d’un autre critère.
modèle de produit idéal : le consommateur a crée dans son esprit un concept d’un produit idéal
et il compare les produits ou les services avec cet idéal. Il préfère le critère, qui se rapproche le
plus du concept idéal, sans insister sur la valeur maximale de chaque critère.
modèle conjonctif : le principe de ce modèle est basé sur l’élimination. Le consommateur
détermine les valeurs minimales de l’ensemble des critères. Il ne s’agit pas de la stratégie de
compensation, parce qu’une valeur élevée d’un critère ne peut pas compenser la valeur d’un
autre critère.
modèle disjonctif : dans ce cas là, le consommateur prend en considération uniquement les
variantes, qui dépassent le niveau demandé d’un ou de quelques critères les plus
importants.hiérarchit les caractéristiques de produit selon leur importance. Il choisit la variante,
qui satisfait le mieux la plus importante caractéristique.
Décision d’achat
Dans cette étape, le consommateur forme ses préférences entre les marques de sa shopping liste
(groupe de sélection). Il peut déjà constituer son intention d’achat. Mais comme Kotler constate, il y a
plusieurs facteurs qui peuvent entrer entre l’intention d’achat et la décision d’achat. Il s’agit des
facteurs suivants : l’attitude des autres, les facteurs situationnels et le risque perçu. Les facteurs
situationnels influencent le consommateur pendant tout son processus de décision, mais c’est dans
cette étape là que leur importance est la plus marquante. Parmi les plus importants facteurs
situationnels on retrouve l’influence de point de vente – merchandising, l’atmosphère du magasin,
l’assortiment etc. La décision du consommateur de changer, annuler ou remettre sa décision d’achat
dépend également du risque perçu. Le consommateur essaie de diminuer ce risque en recherchant les
informations additionnelles, en remettant l’achat ou en préférant les marques connues.
Graphique 1.2 : Les facteurs entre líntention de la décision dáchat
Attitude des
autres
Evaluation
des
alternatives
Source : Kotler, page 218
Intention
d’achat
Facteurs
situationnels
Décision
d’achat
Risque perçu
En appliquant ces critères à la décision d’achat d’un VU, le rôle de réseau de distribution, c’est-à-dire
les concessionaires, et la puissance de la marque Renault, qui diminue le risque et renforce le statut
social d’acheteur, restent préponderantes.
140
Horakova, Marketing v soucasne svetove praxi, page 121-124
194
Analyse de processus décisionnel d’achat appliqué par le service marketing
Renault
Suivant la méthodologie de Renault, le processus décisionnel d’achat d’un véhicule est divisé en trois
étapes, qui font ensuite partie de différentes analyses :
1) Création de la « shopping list », qui représente l’étape ou le client décide d’acheter une
voiture. Il ne se rend pas chez les concessionnaires de toutes les marques, mais il élabore au
préalable une sélection des marques potentielles, en fonction des modèles qu’il a remarqué
dans la rue, dans la publicité, de bouche à oreille ou par son expérience préalable.
2) Achat – cette étape représente le moment ou le client se rend dans les show-rooms, où il essaie
des modèles, discute avec le vendeur et choisit un modèle de voiture.
3) Satisfaction – dans cette étape, le client expérimente des aspects de son véhicule qu’il n’avait
pas perçus ou valorisés au moment de l’achat. Sa satisfaction aura l’influence sur l’achat de son
prochain véhicule et sur l’image qu’il diffusera de son propre véhicule ou la marque.
Construction des indices et leur rôle dans le processus de décision d’achat
Renault à définit plusieurs indices afin de mieux positionner les différents niveaux du prix à chaque
étape d’un achat. Ces différentes étapes permettent de visualiser les stratégies de prix de chaque
constructeur. Renault applique deux indices principaux, qui analysent le positionnement des modèles
Renault au moment où le consommateur constitue sa « shopping list », c'est-à-dire au moment de la
recherche d’informations et au moment de l’évaluation des alternatives. Il s’agit des indices Prix Bruts
(PB) et Prix Corrigés (PC). Ces indices permettent à Renault de positionner les modèles à leur valeur
et au niveau des prix des concurrents. Ce sont les indices les plus utilisés dans les analyses prix dans
tous les pays.
Prix Bruts (PB)
La première chose que le client juge sont les prix tarifs, qui lui permettent de constituer sa shopping
list avec les voitures qu’il va ensuite prendre en considération. Les prix bruts ont pour l’objectif de
représenter en indice et à un moment donné le positionnement des modèles Renault par rapport à la
concurrence dans cette étape. Le calcule de l’indice PB est le suivant :
PB version concurrente (Niveau de compétitivité en %) =
Prix tarif de version concurrent
× 100
prix de version Renault
C’est toujours la voiture de Renault qui représente la base 100 de l’indicateur, c’est à dire qu’on divise
les prix des modèles concurrents par le prix du modèle de référence Renault et on obtient les valeurs en
pourcentage de l’indicateur. Le résultat représente le niveau de compétitivité en prix tarif de Renault
par rapport aux versions concurrents. C’est un indicateur de base, le plus facile à récupérer qui ne
demande pas d’analyses approfondies. Il représente le premier contact du client avec le prix.
Prix Corrigés (PC)
Comme mentionné, la première information recherchée par le client est souvent le prix tarifs des
différents constructeurs. Jusqu’au là, on ne voit pas une différence entre la recherche d’informations
d’une voiture et, par exemple, une télévision. Mais ce qui fait la différence, c’est la complexité du
produit acheté, c’est-à-dire le niveau d’équipements, de confort et pour les véhicules utilitaires surtout
ses caractéristiques d’utilité pour le métier du client. Il s’agit notamment de la charge utile, de la
longueur, hauteur, mais aussi bien de la consommation de carburant et puissance du moteur. On
considère qu’un client rationnel prend en considération les caractéristiques des voitures de sa shopping
195
list et qu’il valorise et corrige le prix des véhicules en fonction de leurs caractéristiques. Par exemple,
une voiture plus chère en prix tarifs offre plus de charge utile, et elle consomme moins d’essence, ce
qui implique que son prix corrigé peut être plus avantageux pour le client. L’indice PC est élaboré afin
de corriger les écarts en équipements et motorisations, qui sont significatifs aux yeux du client pendant
son processus d’achat dans les analyses de compétitivité. Dans la réalité, chaque client prend en
compte et corrige en phase d’achat à peu près quinze différentes parties de l’équipement (hypothèse
Renault).
Afin de pouvoir calculer l’indice PC, il faut tout d’abord trouver le moyen d’exprimer la valorisation
que le consommateur donne aux différentes parties de l’équipement et de les formaliser. Pour valoriser
les différents équipements, les écarts en motorisation, poids et dimensions, les constructeurs
automobiles élaborent un outil qui s’appelle Tableau de valeurs. L’objectif de cet outil est d’indiquer
ce que sont prêts à payer les clients pour les équipements présents dans les véhicules. Chez Renault, le
tableau qui contient les valorisations en PVC (prix valeur client) est intitulé PCOM. Il sert de référence
commune à travers les différents projets.
« Le PCOM est une modélisation simplifiée de la perception de la compétitivité prix du client au
moment de sa décision d'achat sur un choix d'équipements ou de caractéristiques d'un véhicule. »141
Chaque Tableau des valeurs contient les principaux équipements des voitures, c’est à dire la
climatisation, vitres électriques, CD MP3, jantes alliages, condamnation centralisée etc. Elle contient
aussi les valorisations des éléments de motorisation comme la puissance du moteur soit en kW ou en
chevaux, le couple en nanomètres, la consommation combinée. Pour les véhicules utilitaires, l’analyse
prend en considération aussi la valorisation des éléments de dimension et du poids, ce qui est essentiel
pour des clients professionnels. Par dimension, on comprend la longueur en millimètres, le volume de
chargement en litres et par le poids la charge utile en kg.
Ce qui ne sera pas corrigé dans les tableaux de valeurs, ce sont les prestations et les équipements
mineurs ou techniques. Les prestations comme tenue de route, insonorisation ou freinage sont
considérées comme des éléments attachés aux modèles. En fait, ces prestations ne représentent pas les
attributs d’une version du modèle concret.
Les équipements mineurs ou techniques, qui participent au renforcement des prestations (confort,
habitabilité...) ne sont pas pris en compte dans le tableau des valeurs, car leur valorisation éventuelle
serait trop compliquée. En fait, on risquerait la subjectivité, la sur- valorisation des pièces spécifiques à
Renault, et des erreurs sur le contenu des concurrents.
Prix corrigés remisés
Les prix corrigés remisés (PCR) sont utilisés comme un outil marketing tactique. Leur objectif est de
représenter en indice et à un moment donné le positionnement face aux modèles concurrents après
correction des écarts de remises. Les remises sont utilisées par les constructeurs pour attirer les clients
dans les salons. Il s’agit des offres promotionnelles publicisées comme les remises sèches, primes,
offres d’équipements, offres de financements, séries limitées etc. Le PCR exprime le prix perçu par le
client en début de cycle d’achat avant tout contact avec la force de vente. L’indicateur contient les
offres publicisées les plus pertinentes du marché dans la période concernée. On considère comme une
action commerciale connue du client, les publicités communiquées au niveau national, les mailings et
les sites Internet des constructeurs.
PCR = (PC version concurrent – remise)/(PB version Renault – remise)*100
Les remises sont déterminées par leur valeur moyenne pour le client. Pour mesurer l’impact d’une
action commerciale, il faut définir le pourcentage des clients concernés et la valeur, que cette action
141
Source : définition interne de Renault
196
représente pour lui, parce que les offres ont une attractivité très différée. Par exemple la revente des
voitures d’occasion concerne juste les propriétaires de ces voitures. Avec la somme des impacts des
actions (% de clients concernés multiplié par valeur de l’action), on obtient la pression promotionnelle
du modèle, avec laquelle on corrige le prix pour obtenir l’indice PCR. Cet indice est alors composé du
prix tarifs, et des corrections faites d’équipements et actions commerciales publicisées. La source
d’information est dans ce cas-là l’agence Promocar pour l’Europe où les filiales locales à
l’international.
Les PCR permettent de voir la pression promotionnelle en distinguant les types de promotion, la nature
des actions commerciales. De ce fait, cet indice permet à Renault de bien choisir et calibrer ses actions
commerciales publicisées par rapport au tarif et prix de transaction. Le PCR alors complète utilement
l’approche prix tarif. La diffusion de cet indice est limitée aux métiers marketing et aux diagnostics.
Dans la vision client, cet indice représente le moyen de sélectionner les modèles ou les versions à
essayer et négocier. Le client peut se dire : «je vais économiser... »
Prix de transaction
Le marché automobile a beaucoup de spécificités et le marché des véhicules utilitaires encore plus.
C’est la nature de produit, le type de clients qui peut différer des particuliers, artisans aux flottes de
proximité. Et c’est aussi le niveau de rabais, qui représente souvent une part importante du prix tarif.
Chaque filiale distribue aux concessionnaires un budget, qui peut être utilisé selon leurs besoins. Les
concessionnaires peuvent l’ajouter à la remise, le distribuer aux vendeurs comme une prime, l’investir
dans les voyages d’essai plus long etc. C’est pour cela que le montant des remises publicisées et le
montant de rabais réellement obtenu par le client peut différer..
Les constructeurs peuvent se servir soit des remises ou des rabais. Par exemple, sur certains marchés,
la stratégie de Mercedes et Volkswagen est de donner la remise au moment de la négociation (grâce à
son image). Par contre, la stratégie de Renault et PSA est de publiciser une remise assez importante
pour motiver le client de venir vers le réseau. En Allemagne, Citroën a des prix tarifs plus élevés que
Renault, mais il offre des remises importantes, qui sont ensuite communiqués dans les campagnes
publicitaires à la télévision. Son prix remisé est beaucoup plus élevé que le prix remisé de
Renault, mais le prix de transaction est égal. Renault commence avec des prix tarifs bas et Citroën
atteint le même niveau par des corrections des prix. C’est pour cela qu’il est très important pour une
entreprise de pouvoir mesurer ce prix réellement payé par un client. L’indice prix de transaction
mesure la remise totale obtenue par un client sans distinguer la nature des actions commerciales des
concurrents. Il s’agit d’un outil à vocation stratégique qui sert pour analyser des tendances à long
terme. Au contraire, son utilité au niveau de pilotage des actions commerciales en filiales est assez bas,
car sa disponibilité demanderait la réalisation du « Mystery shopping », c’est à dire des simulations
d’achat sur les versions de référence. Mystery shopping est un outil employé souvent par les agences
des études de marché pour mesurer la qualité des service ou pour récupérer des informations
spécifiques sur un produit, conditions de vente ou service. La technique consiste à récupérer des
données spécifiques par les agents qui visitent les magasins et jouent le rôle des clients. Selon un
scénario préparé, ils essaient d’obtenir les informations demandées par le client de l’étude. Le faux
client élabore un rapport juste après sa visite.
Le Mystery shopping se déroule généralement selon les étapes suivantes :
1) Préparation du projet. C’est une étape essentielle qui se déroule en coopération entre le client et
l’agence. Les objectifs de l’étude sont fixés ainsi que le scénario et le questionnaire à remplir par les
clients mystères. On définit aussi le budget, le planning et le contrat avec l’agence est signé.
2) La collection des données. Les faux clients visitent le magasin ciblé et se comportent selon le
scénario. Directement après la visite, le client mystère remplit le questionnaire, qui est ensuite vérifié
par son agence.
197
3) Evaluation des données. Les données sont analysées et présentées dans un rapport.
Les enquêtes client mystère sont très couteuses et Renault les utilise uniquement sur les marchés G5,
c’est à dire en France, en Espagne, Italie, Grande Bretagne et en Allemagne.
Les rabais sont exprimés en moyenne mobile de 6 mois, parce que le nombre d’enquêtes par mois ne
garantie pas une représentativité statistique suffisante.
L’indice PCT est diffusé largement dans l’entreprise. Il aide à construire le positionnement ciblé et à
travailler sur la valeur client et la marque. Pour le client, PCT représente ce qu’il a réellement obtenu.
Conclusion Dans lénvironnement concurrentiel, le résultat dúne action marketing nést pas défini juste par sa
valeur absolue, mais aussi par sa valeur relative par rapport aux concurrents. La plupart des actions
menées par l’entreprise, y compris sa politique des prix, doit prendre en considération les réactions des
concurrents. La dépendance entre l’action d’un acteur sur le marché et les réactions des autres doit être
analysée et prise en considération pendant la phase préparatoire des actions visées..
Sur le marché des véhicules utilitaires, il existe plusieurs notions de prix, parce que les différences
dans l´équipement aussi bien que les offres promotionnelles (les remises et les rabais) influencent la
perception du consommateur pendant son processus d’achat. Chaque notion doit être examinée,
mesurée et mise en perspective du positionnement de Renault par rapport à ses concurrents. Cést pour
cela qu’il faut que les différents indices soient misent en place pour permettre d’identifier l´évolution
de ces différentes notions de prix. Renault utilise quatre indices principaux pour mesurer son
positionnement par rapport aux concurrents.
L’indice PB couvre l’étape de recherche des informations. En créant son shopping list, le client évalue
les prix tarifs des différents constructeurs. L’indice PB mesure la compétitivité de Renault dans ce
domaine.
L’autre aspect qui influence la décision du client sont les remises publicisées dans les médias comme
la TV, la radio, les sites Internet. Líntensité et láttractivité de la publicité ont un impact considérable
sur le comportement de client dans la phase d’élaboration du shopping list aussi bien que dans la phase
d’évaluation des alternatives. Pour mesurer la compétitivité des remises Renault utilise l’indice PCR.
La décision d’achat est influencée également par les facteurs situationnels. Entre les facteurs
situationnels les plus importants, on peut compter le montant des rabais, qui sont offerts chez les
concessionnaires et qui n’étaient pas publicisées dans les médias. La compétitivité de Renault dans
cette étape est examinée sous la forme de l’indice PCT.
L’indice PC est élaboré afin de corriger les écarts en équipements et motorisations, qui sont
significatifs aux yeux du client pendant son processus d’achat dans les analyses de compétitivité. Afin
de pouvoir calculer l’indice PC, il faut tout d’abord trouver le moyen d’exprimer la valorisation que le
consommateur donne aux différentes parties de l’équipement et de les formaliser. Pour valoriser les
différents équipements, les écarts en motorisation, poids et dimensions, les constructeurs automobiles
élaborent un outil qui s’appelle Tableau de valeurs et qui est chez Renault intitulé PCOM.
198
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PRIDE, W.M., FERREL, O.C.: Marketing, Concepts and Strategies, 5e édition, Houghton Miffin
Company, Boston 1989. ISBN 0-618-53203-X
www.renault.com
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142
TRADE FINANCE DURING THE LAST CRISIS
Ing. Michal NEJEDLÝ
[email protected]
Abstract
Since 2008 the world economy has been substantially determined by the financial and economic crisis.
Trade finance, which is the fuel for more than 80 % of world trade, has been hit by distress on the
financial market. Exporters and importers were affected by a constrained supply of trade finance
products, their higher prices and by a lack of foreign orders. On the background of literature dealing
with trade finance in previous crises, the paper summarizes the findings of surveys conducted
worldwide during the last several years in the field of trade finance.
Key words
trade finance, economic and financial crisis, banking, the Czech Republic
Introduction
Trade finance seemed to have suffered from the financial and economic crisis. It is generally
accepted that about 80 – 90 % of the world trade relies on trade finance. Approximately 35 – 40 % of
trade finance arrangements are supposed to be intermediated by banks (Asmundson et al., 2011). A
turmoil on American mortgage market in summer 2007 followed by bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in
September 2008 caused distress on world financial markets, where banks, as providers of trade finance
products, play important role.
Trade finance declined significantly since 2008. However, the drop in trade finance was not so
dramatic compared to the decline in world merchandise trade and output. According to IMF/BAFTIFSA Trade Finance Survey made in July 2009 the merchandise exports fell by 14.7 % between 4Q
2008 and 2Q 2009 compared to the decline in trade finance by 7.5 % during the same period of time.
It is stated that part of the world trade decrease is caused by a negative impact of the financial
crisis on trade finance (Auboin, 2009). The recession of advanced economies accompanied by lower
demand for goods and services are the other determinants. Nevertheless, the available evidence
suggests that shocks to trade finance were not the major factor in the decline in trade (Mora & Powers,
2009).
Exporters faced the fallout of demand for durable, postponeable goods, which resulted in lower
demand for bank-intermediated trade financing. However, economic crisis, rising bankruptcy of banks
and non-financial companies and delays in payment by buyers increased substantially a counterparty
risk. Therefore, exporters and importers sought to use safer terms of payments mainly based on bankintermediated trade finance products or export credit insurance.
This paper focuses on the development of trade finance during the last financial and economic
crisis. It summarized various reports and surveys made since the outbreak of the crisis. Despite various
types of trade finance, bank-intermediated trade finance products are concerned.
It is far-famed that there is absence on data on trade finance flows. Therefore, a necessity to
describe behaviour of trade finance products in the last crisis led some institutions to prepare and
conduct surveys focused on trade finance. These institutions were International Monetary Fund (IMF),
Banker’s Association for Finance and Trade and International Financial Services Association (BAFTIFSA) and International Chamber of Commerce (ICC).
The paper is organized as follows: first part defines the term trade finance. Second part of the
paper brings evidence of the impact of previous financial crises on trade finance. Third part focuses on
the development of trade finance in the last crisis, i.e. between 2007 and 2010.
142
This paper was prepared within the Research Project IGA “Řešení dopadů finanční a ekonomické krize na vývozce v
ČR”, Nr. F2/19/2010.
200
Trade finance definition
There are many conceptions of the term trade finance in numerous studies which vary
according to trade finance instruments and products considered. A broad definition of trade finance is
any financial arrangement connected to inter-firm commercial transaction (Ellingsen & Vlachos 2009,
p. 2). Trade finance under this definition can take different types, i.e. arrangements between buyers
and sellers, arrangements with credit insurers and with banks. Thus the broad definition includes
(Asmundson et al., 2011, p. 54):
(i)
cash in advance arrangements,
(ii)
open account arrangements – intra-firms, arm’s length non-guaranteed and ECA
guaranteed trade credits,
(iii) bank-intermediated trade finance, i.e. trade-related credits provided by banks.
A narrow definition of trade finance deals with transactions financed by bank intermediaries
and other financial institutions for the purpose of providing finance to exporters or importers before,
during or after shipment. The variety of forms of bank-intermediated trade financing is wide and can
include:
(i)
letters of credit (L/C) and different L/C operations, e.g. L/C confirmation, L/C
discounting or post-financing,
(ii)
documentary collections,
(iii) pre-shipment financing, e.g. pre-export loans, working capital loans or other
transaction-specific financing granted to exporters,
(iv)
post-shipment financing, e.g. refinancing of supplier’s trade credit, working capital
loans or other transaction-specific financing granted to exporters,
(v)
buyer’s credits granted by bank in exporting country to foreign buyer or his bank,
(vi)
forfaiting, i.e. purchase of receivables from exporters before maturity,
(vii) various types of trade-related guarantees, e.g. bid bonds, performance bonds, advance
payment guarantees,
(viii) importer’s financing,
(ix)
export credit insurance.
Trade finance differs in that what type of risk it mitigates and to what extent. Generally said
trade finance is finance related to trade transactions and from bank point of view it is distinguished by
its low-risk profile, self-liquidating character and usually short-term maturity.143
All available data regarding trade finance presented in the paper are based on surveys
conducted among banks in different countries. Therefore, the term trade finance is considered in its
narrower definition in this paper.
What we know from the previous crises?
In the previous decades several financial crises occurred in different places in the world. Each
crisis was special in terms of its reasons, length and course. There are several papers focused on trade
finance in these crises. Most papers are concerned with problems of trade finance in developing
countries.
IMF (2003) summarized the attributes of the collapse of trade finance in developing countries
(e.g. Mexico, Brazil) in crisis. It suggested the following factors as main contributors to the fallout of
trade finance:
(i)
banks did not differentiate between providing trade-related loans and other credit
exposure and reduced limits to the crisis countries generally144,
(ii)
herd behaviour among trade finance providers,
(iii) weak domestic banking system which was not able to maintain credit lines to corporate
clients without credit lines from foreign banks,
(iv)
lack of credit insurance.
143
Transactions with maturity up to 180 days are usually considered as short-term. The classification of trade finance
market in terms of maturity is not unique. According to OECD Arrangement on Guidelines for Officially Supported Export
Credits a maturity over 2 years is regarded as medium or long term.
144
Due to a short-term nature of most trade finance transactions it was not a problem for creditors not to renew credit lines.
201
A sudden drop in general trust in banks or banking systems of particular countries
complemented by a herd behaviour are reported by Auboin (2007, p. 9) as the phenomenon during the
Asian crisis of 1997-98. Auboin states that in periods of acute crisis, this supply (of trade finance
products – MN) did not exist in certain countries ... In the light of a general loss in confidence in a
local banking system, international banks forced up confirmations fees of inter-bank spreads, and
reduced or cancelled “bank limits” as well as “country limits”.
Ronci (2004) analyzed an impact of the constrained trade finance on export and import
volumes in the short run. Based on data from 10 financial crises he came to a conclusion that fall in
external trade finance explains a relatively small part of the trade loss during crises, while a fall in
trade financing in connection with domestic banking crisis can lead to a substantial loss of trade.
The impact of trade finance fallout on exporters varies according to the sector and to its
dependency on banking credit. Iacovone & Zavacka (2009) contributed to literature with findings that
sectors more dependent on external finance grow significantly less than other sectors during the crisis.
Moreover, they came to a conclusion that the banking crisis does not appear to adversely affect
exporters particularly dependent on inter-firm finance in any significant manner. Bricongne, et al.
(2009), who additionally confirmed that credit constrains for sectors dependent on external finance are
of the same significance for small and large firms, came to similar conclusion.
Amiti & Weinstein (2009) analyzed the relationship between banks as suppliers of trade
finance products and export development during banking crises. Based on the Japanese data they
suggest that there is a casual link. Export performance is weaker for those firms whose bank is more
affected by the crisis. A shortage of credit sources is able to explain approximately 30 % of Japanese
decline in export.
Trade finance in the financial crisis of 2007
Because of the lack of reliable trade finance data, several international institutions attempted to
cover this gap by surveys and reports on trade finance. Their results are comparatively similar and can
be presented from the following distinct points of view, from bank’s side on the one hand and from
exporter’s or importer’s side on the other hand.
Beginning on the bank side, it is often reported that banks have become more risk averse and
have started to be more selective in the supply of various types of credits and other trade finance
products since outbreak of the last crisis. IMF (2009) reported that more than 90 % of advanced
economy banks and 70 % of emerging market banks indicated a change in the counterparty criteria.
Banks adopted stricter risk guidelines towards their corporate clients, certain banks and countries145.
According to ICC, more respondents reported decline in trade credit lines for financial institutions than
for corporate clients.146 This can be easily explained by lower confidence among the players on
financial markets and also by the fall in the number of financial institutions. Moreover, some banks
and countries were even excluded from bank’s lending portfolios (Malouche, 2009). Requests on
export credit insurance, shorter maturities, stronger covenants, more collateral (cash deposits, equity
contributions) are the most cited examples of changes in trade-related lending guidelines. Small and
medium-sized enterprises and new clients are especially affected in terms of their access to bankintermediated trade finance products.
All surveys made in recent times are consistent in the fact that there was an increase in price of
trade finance products. Another survey of IMF shows a price development of selected trade finance
instruments in two consecutive periods of time (see Figure 1). It flows from the same survey that price
changes are put in practice more likely by large banks than the small and medium ones.
Figure 1
145
Changes in pricing of selected trade finance instruments
Argentina, the Baltic countries, Hungary, Iceland, Pakistan, Russia, Turkey e.g.
51 % of respondents indicated decrease in credit lines for financial institutions between last quarter of 2007 and last
quarter of 2008 compared to 40 % of respondents stating their decrease for corporates. In the period between 2008 and
2009 this figures amounted to 42 % for financial institution compared to 40 % for corporates (ICC, 2009, p. 35, and ICC,
2010, p. 32).
146
202
Source: IMF/BAFT-IFSA Trade Finance Survey, March 2010 in Asmundson et al., (2011, p. 26)
ICC Trade Finance Surveys confirmed this development and provided a closer look to other
trade finance instruments, documentary collections and bank guarantees. According to the survey 41 %
of respondents indicated an increase in fees for issuance of bank guarantee, only 18 % of respondents
reported an increase in price for documentary collection, and 58 % an increase in fees for confirming a
letter of credit (ICC, 2009, str. 36-37). Although the growth in prices continued in 2009, available
reports concludes that trade finance products still remained affordable to exporters and importers,
because they are able to mitigate a range of various risks compared to standard open account trade
instruments.
As far as main reasons for the price increase are concerned, mostly two basic factors are
mentioned in literature – costs of funds and capital requirements. 80 % of respondents in IMF Survey
specified the rising costs of their funds as important determinant (IMF, 2009, p. 7). Interbank market
has been under stress since 2007, banks have not trusted to each other and have been reluctant to
provide liquidity. Moreover, some banks, mostly in developing countries, have had difficulty with
obtaining liquidity in foreign currencies which became scarce and expensive (Malouche, 2009, p. 24).
More questionable is the impact of more stringent capital requirements on prices of trade finance
products. It flows from the BAFT Survey from March 2009 that 42 % of respondents considered
higher capital requirements as factor for increased pricing of trade finance in 2008, in 2009 it was even
58 % of respondents. Nevertheless, 40 % of respondents said that the implementation of Basel II had
no impact on their ability to provide trade finance, 27 % reported even a positive impact (BAFT, 2009,
p. 9). Moreover, this determinant is more significant for large banks than for the small or mediumsized ones (Asmundson et al., 2011, p. 27).
A sudden drop in orders and contracts has contributed significantly to the decline in trade
across all groups of economies (developed, developing) since 2008. Viewed from the exporter’s or
importer’s point of view, these companies have had to cope with a low demand for their products and
services, a fluctuation of exchange rates, and changes in behaviour of their customers and banks. A
fall-out of sales, accumulation of inventories, delayed payments from customers and other factors have
contributed to a worsened credit standing of these companies. Further, risks connected with doing
international trade have gone up. Therefore, exporters and importers felt urge to mitigate both the
commercial and political risk by using bank-intermediated trade finance products. The demand for
risk-mitigating instruments grew significantly. Bank guarantees, letters of credit and their confirmation
are a good example. The surveys conducted by ICC proved that about 50 % of interviewed banks
reported an increase in corporate demand for the issuance of bank undertakings between 2008-2009.
However, at the same time ICC added that some portion of this additional demand could not be fully
satisfied.
It should be stated that a percentage decline in merchandise trade exceeded the decline in trade
finance. Whereas merchandise exports fell by 10.3 % between 4Q2008 and 4Q2007, trade finance fell
by 1.6 % only. In the period between 2Q2009 and 4Q2008 the decrease amounted to 10.3 % and 7.5 %
203
respectively (Asmundson et al., 2011, p. 16). For an estimation of trade finance growth, SWIFT
statistics stating the year-on-year growth in trade finance messages can be used as a proxy. This figure
includes data on documentary credits, documentary collections and guarantees. Figure 2 shows
changes in amount of trade finance-related messages which declined gradually since 1Q2008. A
dramatic change occurred at the end of 2008 when the number of messages decreased significantly by
more than 20 %. Since that time the indicator has been recovering.
Figure 2
SWIFT year-on-year growth in trade finance messages
Source: ICC (2010, p. 23)
The volume of trade finance shrank in absolute terms. Various surveys and reports bring
evidence about it. At the same time they agree that the decline of trade finance volumes is not
primarily determined by an ability of banks to provide trade finance, but more by demand factors such
as a fall in the demand for trade activities or a fall in the price of transactions (e.g. commodity prices)
(Asmundson et al., 2011, p. 43-50).
An export credit insurance represents a specific part of the trade finance business. Its goal is to
facilitate and to enable realisation of trade transactions. The export credit insurance is provided on
commercial basis or with the state support (by Export Credit Agencies – ECAs) and is able to mitigate
various types of commercial and political risks. The development of the short-term and the mediumand long-term export credit insurance provided by members of the Berne Union is demonstrated in
Figure 3. There was a stable increase in the volume of short-term export credit insurance since 2005.
The impact of financial and economic crisis is visible in 2009. However, the medium- and long-term
insurance were not affected by the crisis. The values grew steadily, even in the period of financial
distress. A long-term character of business transactions and an activated role of ECAs can be
considered as the reasons for this development.
204
Figure 3
Short-term (ST) and medium- and long-term (MLT) export credit insurance
Source: Berne Union (2011)
Some data also indicate that exporters switched from an open account trading to
bank-intermediated instruments. Whereas in October 2007 the portion of bank-intermediated
transactions amounted to 33 %147, it was 35 % one year later and 36 % in January 2009 (Asmundson et
al., 2011, p. 18). As a result, the share of world trade supported by bank-intermediated trade finance
appears to have increased during the crisis (BAFT, 2009, p. 13).
Conclusion
A majority of the world trade relies on trade finance. The term trade finance can be considered
broadly or narrowly depending on instruments included. This paper deals with bank-intermediated
trade finance, which is relevant for examining the impact of the last financial and economic crisis.
Due to an absence of reliable world trade finance data, the surveys conducted by international
institutions are the main information sources that can be used for estimation of the recent development
in the field of bank-intermediated trade finance. The last financial and economic crisis affected
exporters, importers and financial institutions significantly. Due to a liquidity squeeze on the interbank
market, the costs of funding increased, which finally resulted in higher prices and fees for trade finance
products offered by banks to their clients. There was a sudden loss in confidence among individual
players. Banks changed the counterparty criteria and applied more stringent lending policy, which can
be demonstrated by a shorter maturity or a demand for additional collateral.
Apart from the lack of orders, corporates faced a worsened payment discipline of customers
and an overall increase in commercial and political risk. Therefore, the demand for bank-intermediated
trade finance products, such as letters of credit or export credit insurance, increased. However, their
demand for these products was not fully satisfied due to constraints on the bank’s side and also due to
a worsened financial standing of corporates themselves.
Empirical evidence from the previous crisis also seems to be applicable to the last financial and
economic crisis. Banks reduced credit lines to other banks or corporate clients in the light of a general
loss in confidence in them. Some groups of companies, namely small- and medium-sized ones and
those heavily dependent of external finance, were limited in their access to trade finance banking
products. Several countries, mostly with weak banking system, were hit very hard.
Questions of trade finance bring about a range of topics for future research. The role of ECAs
in supporting trade finance, impact of Basel regulatory requirements of trade finance or the evaluation
of trade finance liquidity programs approved by G20 members are some examples.
References
147
cash-in advance transactions and open account transactions are other categories under considerations
205
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MONITORING FINANCIAL INDICATORS
OF ENERGY UTILITIES: AN EXAMPLE OF CENTRAL
EUROPEAN ENERGY DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES
Ondřej MACHEK
Department of Business Economics
Faculty of Business Administration
University of Economics in Prague
[email protected]
Introduction This paper deals with a financial analysis of Central European energy distribution companies,
especially electricity transmission and distribution and natural gas transportation and distribution
companies. We focus on Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Austria,
Germany and Switzerland. In this paper, we reffer to the distribution system operators as DSOs and to
the trasmission system operators as TSOs.
Firms operating in energy distribution industries are often classified as natural monopolies and referred
to as public utilities, since they provide a service that is affected with public interest. Since these
companies have substantial monopoly powers and provide an essential service, they are regulated by
independent regulatory bodies. Regulatory legislation and methods vary across the region. Central
Europe is characterized by huge economic and social disparities and differences in regulatory
experience.
Financial analysis of industry sectors forms a gap between macroeconomic analysis and financial
analysis of particular companies. In this paper, we determine common performance indicators
(financial ratios of profitability, asset management, liquidity, solvency) of energy distribution sector in
the Central European region and we analyse the development of return on equity (ROE) and its
components in individual contries between 2005-2009.
Source data Data was collected for Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Austria, Germany and
Switzerland. In the countries of the former Eastern Bloc, energy markets are still very concentrated
and only a very limited number of firms are operating on the market. In Austria and Germany, the
market is much less concentrated and therefore more competitive – for instance, multiple operators
participate on electricity transmission, whereas in post-communist countries, only one monopoly
company operates the transmission grid. The situation is similar in the field of electricity and natural
gas regional distribution and gas transportation. We based our analysis on 64 Central European major
energy distribution companies, of which 12 Czech, 6 Slovak, 8 Hungarian, 10 Polish, 8 Austrian, 12
German and 8 Swiss companies. Data was collected from annual reports of the companies for the
period 2005-2009.
Methodology Financial ratios are measures of a firm’s performance that examine a firm from different point of
views. Traditionally, financial ratios are grouped into five major areas:
• Profitability ratios,
•
Asset management ratios,
208
•
Liquidity ratios,
•
Financial leverage ratios,
•
Capital market analysis ratios.
In this paper, we do not deal with capital market ratios and focus on the first four areas since the
analysed firms are often not quoted on stock exchanges.
Amongst the major profitability ratios, we focused on the return on equity (ROE), the return on assets
(ROA), the return on capital employed (ROCE) and the return on sales, also called profit margin
(ROS). Asset management ratios indicate how efficiently a company utilizes its assets. We focused
on the asset turnover ratio and the fixed asset turnover ratio. Liquidity ratios measure a firm’s ability
to meet its short-term obligations. Common liquidity measures are the current ratio and the quick ratio.
Financial leverage ratios measure a firm’s debt and its long-term solvency. We determined the debt
ratio, the D/E ratio and the leverage ratio.
The ratios used in the analysis are summarized in Tab. 1.
Tab. 1: Selected performance indicators Indicator
Abbreviation
Formula
Return on equity (ROE)
ROE
EAT/Equity
Return on assets (ROA)
ROA
EBIT/Total assets
Return on capital employed (ROCE)
ROCE
EBIT/Capital employed
Return on sales (ROS)
ROS
EBIT/Sales
Asset turnover
AT
Sales/Total assets
Fixed asset turnover
FAT
Sales/Fixed assets
Current ratio
CR
Current assets/Short-term liabilities
Quick ratio
QR
(Current assets – inventory)/Short-term liabilities
Debt ratio
DR
Total debt/Total assets
D/E ratio
DER
Total debt/Equity
Leverage ratio
LR
Total assets/Equity
Since ROE is the most important ratio, it is often decomposed using Du Pont identity. ROE can be
broken into five individual indicators as follows:
EAT EAT EBT EBIT S A
ROE =
=
×
×
× × ,
Eq. 1
E
EBT EBIT
S
A E
where EAT denotes after-tax profit, EBT is profit before taxes, EBIT denotes earnings before interest
and taxes (operating profit), S denotes sales, A denotes total assets and E denotes equity. The five
indicators are defined in Tab. 2.
Tab. 2: Selected ROE components
Indicator
Formula
Tax effect ratio
EAT/EBT
Financial cost ratio
EBT/EBIT
Return on sales
EBIT/Sales
Asset turnover
Sales/Total assets
Leverage ratio
Total assets/Equity
The impact of year-to-year change of these five individual indicators upon the total year-to-year
change of ROE can be determined using the so-called logarithmic method as follows.
We divide the return on equity in period two ROE2 by the return on equity in the preceding period
ROE1 and obtain
209
EBIT2 S 2 A2
EBT2
EAT2
E
A
S2
ROE 2 EBT2 EBIT2
Eq. 2
=
×
×
× 2 × 2 ,
A1
EBIT1 S1
EBT1
EAT1
ROE1
A1 E1
S1
EBT1 EBIT1
Let IX/Y denote the relative change of the factor X/Y, ie the fraction
X2
Y
Eq. 3
I X /Y = 2
X1
Y1
and let IROE denote the relative change of ROE. The multiplicative relationship described by Eq. 2 can
be logarithmized to obtain an additive relationship and divided by ln(IROE). Doing so, we obtain
ln (I EAT / EBT ) ln (I EBT / EBIT ) ln (I EBIT / S ) ln (I S / A ) ln (I A / E )
.
Eq. 4
1=
+
+
+
+
ln( I ROE )
ln( I ROE )
ln( I ROE )
ln( I ROE ) ln( I ROE )
By multiplicating the Eq. 4 by the absolute change of return on equity ΔROE = ROE2 - ROE1 we can
express the change of ROE due to the change of an individual factor X/Y as
ln(I X / Y )
ΔROE X / Y =
ΔROE .
Eq. 5
ln( I ROE )
A sum of these five individual impacts equals ΔROE.
Energy distribution sector analysis of selected countries In this part, we analyse the development of selected performance indicators in the selected countries
and the changes in return on equity. We use abbreviations defined in Tab. 1.
Czech republic The Czech energy market is relatively concentrated. The regional electricity distribution is ensured by
only three companies (ČEZ Distribuce, PRE Distribuce and E.ON Distribuce) and the natural gas
regional distribution is operated by six DSOs, out of which four are members of RWE Transgas group.
The national electricity transmission grid belongs to one monopoly company (ČEPS), as well as the
natural gas transportation (Net4Gas).
ROE and ROS have been increasing in the period of 2005-2009, whereas ROA and ROCE have been
slightly decreasing within the sector. Asset utilization has had a negative trend, in terms of both asset
turnover and fixed asset turnover. The liquidity has been relatively low but its value has been growing.
The level of debt has been slightly decreasing but it has not changed significantly. The leverage has
been relatively low. An increase of the proportion of debt would increase ROE and reduce the costs of
capital.
Tab. 3: Financial ratios of the Czech energy distribution sector Year ROE
ROA
ROS
ROCE
AT
FAT
CR
QR
DR
DER
LR
2005
0,077
0,069
0,104
0,103
0,659
0,780
0,971
0,961
0,340
0,515
1,515
2006
0,076
0,069
0,122
0,099
0,569
0,671
1,228
1,215
0,308
0,444
1,444
2007
0,079
0,066
0,134
0,093
0,495
0,606
1,354
1,344
0,286
0,401
1,401
2008
0,082
0,061
0,128
0,092
0,480
0,607
1,197
1,190
0,342
0,521
1,521
2009
0,080
0,061
0,146
0,088
0,421
0,521
1,384
1,376
0,310
0,450
1,450
The impact of the evolution of the change of ROE components on the aggregate indicator is
summarized in Tab. 4. The asset turnover has had a decreasing effect on ROE, as well as the debt
level. ROE has been growing mainly due to the profit margin, the tax effect and the financial cost
210
ratio. Indeed, the average level of taxation of Czech energy distribution companies has been decreasing
in 2005-2009.
Tab. 4: Changes of energy utilities ROE in the Czech Republic
Tax effect
ratio impact
ΔROE
Year
Financial cost
ratio impact
Asset
turnover
impact
Profit margin
impact
Leverage ratio
impact
2006
-0,0012
0,0014
0,0004
0,0118
-0,0112
-0,0036
2007
0,0030
0,0034
0,0050
0,0075
-0,0106
-0,0024
2008
0,0032
0,0011
0,0020
-0,0040
-0,0025
0,0066
2009
-0,0013
0,0002
0,0021
0,0110
-0,0107
-0,0039
Slovakia The Slovak energy market is the smallest one in the sample of countries. It is also a very concentrated
one. For instance, 98% of the natural gas regional distribution is operated by one single company, SPP
Distribúcia. The regional distribution of electricity is ensured by three DSOs (ZSE, SSE and VSE).
The monopoly natural gas transportation company is Eustream and the monopoly electricity
transmission company is SEPS.
As shown in Tab. 5, ROE has been relatively high but has had a decreasing character, as well as ROA
and ROCE. ROS has fluctuated a lot, but in 2009 remained at the same level as in 2005. The asset
turnover and the fixed asset turnover have been declining. The measures of liquidity have been
relatively high. The level od debt has been stable but relatively low in later years of the period. The
advantages of financial leverage effect have been used insufficiently and certainly there is room for
improvement in this area.
Tab. 5: Financial ratios of the Slovak energy distribution sector ROE
ROA
ROS
ROCE
AT
FAT
CR
QR
DR
DER
LR
2005
0,264
0,180
0,122
0,276
1,479
2,421
1,595
1,581
0,438
0,778
1,778
2006
0,142
0,121
0,194
0,143
0,624
0,784
2,486
2,098
0,162
0,194
1,194
2007
0,207
0,188
0,439
0,157
0,429
0,492
1,619
1,446
0,201
0,251
1,251
2008
0,075
0,062
0,126
0,078
0,493
0,556
1,405
1,075
0,209
0,264
1,264
2009
0,067
0,058
0,119
0,071
0,484
0,643
3,113
1,654
0,205
0,258
1,258
The decline of ROE has been caused by various ROE components. In 2006, it was due to the asset
turnover and leverage effect, since the asset turnover had diminished significantly and the level of debt
had decreased. In 2008, it was partly due to the decreasing profit margin and the tax effect. In 2009,
ROE decreased due to all factors except of the tax effect.
Tab. 6: Changes of energy utilities ROE in Slovakia
Year
ΔROE
Tax effect
ratio impact
Financial cost
ratio impact
Profit margin
impact
Asset
turnover
impact
Leverage ratio
impact
2006
-0,1214
0,0006
0,0344
0,0914
-0,1696
-0,0782
2007
0,0649
0,0090
-0,0283
0,1407
-0,0646
0,0081
2008
-0,1319
-0,0055
0,0161
-0,1619
0,0180
0,0013
2009
-0,0085
0,0002
-0,0027
-0,0044
-0,0013
-0,0003
211
Hungary The Hungarian energy market is comparable to the Czech one in terms of market concentration.
Monopoly companies have been operating gas transportation (FGSZ) and electricity transmission
(MAVIR) networks, whereas regional distribution has been ensured by three electric utilites and six
gas pipelines.
Tab. 7 illustrates the evolution of financial ratios of the sector in Hungary. ROE has been declining as
well as ROA, ROS and ROCE. The return on sales cannot be directly influenced by raising prizes
since they are regulated, but a better costs management could improve this ratio. The asset turnover
and the fixed asset turnover have been relatively high, which signalizes a good utilization of assets, but
the liquidity has been insufficient. Hungarian energy utilites should raise the volume of liquid funds.
The level of debt is slightly higher than the Czech one but still low in comparison with more developed
countries.
Tab. 7: Financial ratios of the Hungarian energy distribution sector ROE
ROA
ROS
ROCE
AT
FAT
CR
QR
DR
DER
LR
2005
0,117
0,074
0,071
0,134
1,041
1,286
0,636
0,606
0,456
0,837
1,837
2006
0,086
0,076
0,106
0,130
0,722
0,922
0,550
0,536
0,418
0,719
1,719
2007
0,228
0,035
0,049
0,052
0,711
0,804
0,498
0,485
0,340
0,516
1,516
2008
0,059
0,039
0,047
0,059
0,832
0,963
0,731
0,656
0,338
0,511
1,511
2009
0,050
0,033
0,041
0,053
0,805
0,963
0,901
0,653
0,380
0,612
1,612
Tab. 6 examines the year-to-year changes of ROE. In 2005, ROE declined due to a growth of average
taxation and interest rate, and due to a decrease of the asset turnover and the level of debt. In 2006,
ROE grew significantly because of the financial cost ratio impact. All other factors stagnated or
decreased. In 2007 and 2008, ROE decreased as a consequence of declining ROS and financial cost
ratio.
Tab. 8: Changes of energy utilities ROE in Hungary
Year
ΔROE
Tax effect
ratio impact
Financial cost
ratio impact
Profit margin
impact
Asset
turnover
impact
Leverage ratio
impact
2006
-0,0308
-0,0175
-0,0098
0,0399
-0,0368
-0,0067
2007
0,1419
0,0000
0,2751
-0,1128
-0,0021
-0,0183
2008
-0,1683
0,0052
-0,1887
-0,0041
0,0197
-0,0004
2009
-0,0093
0,0072
-0,0107
-0,0076
-0,0018
0,0035
Poland The Polish energy market is significantly larger than those of the previously destribed countries.
Nevertheless, main distribution system operators remain state-owned. In the field of natural gas
distribution and transportation, there are six DSOs, all of them owned by the PGNiG company, which
is a joint stock company of the State Treasury, and one TSO (Gaz-System). As to the electricity
distribution and transmission, there were 20 DSOs and one TSO (PSE). These companies have been
operating within large vertically integrated groups such as PGE, Tauron, Energa or Enea.
As shown in Tab. 9, the evolution of Polish energy distribution ROE has a positive trend, as well as
ROA, ROS and ROCE. The asset management ratios have been slightly decreasing but have not
changed significantly. In terms of liquidity, the Polish energy sector has been successful. The level of
debt has been decreasing, which could have had a negative impact on ROE.
212
Tab. 9: Financial ratios of the Polish energy distribution sector ROE
ROA
ROS
ROCE
AT
FAT
CR
QR
DR
DER
LR
2005
0,051
0,040
0,070
0,076
0,575
0,713
1,783
1,570
0,471
0,889
1,889
2006
0,081
0,046
0,080
0,111
0,570
0,703
1,867
1,612
0,589
1,433
2,433
2007
0,052
0,027
0,048
0,041
0,555
0,679
1,499
1,282
0,350
0,538
1,538
2008
0,053
0,046
0,087
0,070
0,531
0,650
1,280
1,085
0,339
0,513
1,513
2009
0,075
0,070
0,131
0,099
0,535
0,681
1,636
1,441
0,293
0,413
1,413
In 2005, ROE has increased mainly due to a higher leverage and profit margin. The negative effect of
declining asset turnover has been negligible. In the following years, the level of debt has been
decreasing and the impact of declining asset turnover has been more significant. Nevertheless, ROE
has been growing as a consequence of growing profit margin which had a major impact on the ROE
change.
Tab. 10: Changes of energy utilities ROE in Poland
Year
Tax effect
ratio impact
ΔROE
Financial cost
ratio impact
Asset
turnover
impact
Profit margin
impact
Leverage ratio
impact
2006
0,0301
0,0023
0,0034
0,0085
-0,0006
0,0165
2007
-0,0293
0,0309
0,0054
-0,0337
-0,0018
-0,0301
2008
0,0010
-0,0232
-0,0039
0,0312
-0,0022
-0,0009
2009
0,0222
0,0012
-0,0011
0,0261
0,0004
-0,0043
Austria The Austrian energy market is less concentrated than the markets of the previously analysed postcommunist countries. There are three electricity transmission system operators (Verbund, TIWAG and
VKW) and more than one hundred distribution system operators, out of which 9 companies are major
regional electricity distribution system operators. In the field of natural gas, there are two TSOs and 19
DSOs.
The return on equity in Austria has been relatively high. This can be explained by a higher leverage
(cost of debt is less than cost of equity) and asset turnover, ie a more efficient utilization of assets.
Nevertheless, the profitability has been decreasing. The liquidity of the Austrian energy sector has
been low.
Tab. 11: Financial ratios of the Austrian energy distribution sector ROE
ROA
ROS
ROCE
AT
FAT
CR
QR
DR
DER
LR
2005
0,208
0,087
0,127
0,249
0,687
0,926
1,323
1,040
0,650
1,857
2,857
2006
0,191
0,084
0,119
0,219
0,704
0,918
1,198
0,908
0,618
1,617
2,617
2007
0,194
0,080
0,120
0,205
0,670
0,871
0,963
0,710
0,607
1,544
2,544
2008
0,176
0,081
0,104
0,198
0,781
0,969
0,918
0,672
0,589
1,433
2,433
2009
0,109
0,058
0,096
0,140
0,601
0,733
1,091
0,760
0,588
1,430
2,430
The decreasing trend of ROE can be explained by Tab. 10. Leverage ratio, ie the level of debt was
declining over the whole period. The profit margin was also declining except of 2006. The changes of
asset turnover played major roles in changes of ROE in 2007 and 2008.
213
Tab. 12: Changes of energy utilities ROE in Austria
Tax effect
ratio impact
ΔROE
Year
Financial cost
ratio impact
Asset
turnover
impact
Profit margin
impact
Leverage ratio
impact
2006
-0,0171
-0,0064
0,0142
-0,0122
0,0048
-0,0175
2007
0,0027
0,0098
0,0062
0,0018
-0,0096
-0,0054
2008
-0,0175
0,0073
-0,0189
-0,0259
0,0283
-0,0082
2009
-0,0675
-0,0076
-0,0112
-0,0120
-0,0365
-0,0002
Germany The German energy market is the largest one in the region and probably also the most developed one.
There are four electricity TSOs (EnBW Transportnetze, TenneT, Amprion and 50Hertz Transmission)
and about 900 DSOs, but only around 120 of them control 90% of the electricity distribution market.
The number of natural gas TSOs is unclear due to the disputed interpretation of the German expression
"Fernleitungsnetzbetreiber". There are around 700 natural gas DSOs out of which about 70 control
80% of the gas distribution market.
The level od debt has been high in the industry and the highest amongst the countries examined in this
paper. The liquidity has been greater than in Austria but still not entirely sufficient. Moreover, it has
been decreasing except of the last year. The asset utilization has had a positive growth trend. The trend
of profitability evolution has not been clear.
Tab. 13: Financial ratios of the German energy distribution sector ROE
ROA
ROS
ROCE
AT
FAT
CR
QR
DR
DER
LR
2005
0,110
0,058
0,106
0,177
0,550
0,795
1,490
1,367
0,671
2,038
3,038
2006
0,101
0,057
0,094
0,166
0,605
0,805
1,060
0,913
0,656
1,910
2,910
2007
0,118
0,075
0,124
0,206
0,604
0,797
1,097
0,962
0,638
1,764
2,764
2008
0,067
0,040
0,062
0,162
0,652
0,956
1,000
0,900
0,752
3,038
4,038
2009
0,132
0,082
0,134
0,290
0,608
0,854
1,159
1,024
0,719
2,556
3,556
ROE has declined in 2005 and 2007 and increased in 2006 and 2008. The decreases have been
partially caused by the financial cost ratio and partially by ROS. In 2005, also the leverage played a
minor role in the decrease. ROS has been the most important cause of the ROE increases in 2006 and
2008.
Tab. 14: Changes of energy utilities ROE in Germany
Year
ΔROE
Tax effect
ratio impact
Financial cost
ratio impact
Profit margin
impact
Asset
turnover
impact
Leverage ratio
impact
2006
-0,0085
0,0115
-0,0129
-0,0128
0,0102
-0,0046
2007
0,0165
0,0054
-0,0131
0,0301
-0,0003
-0,0056
2008
-0,0512
-0,0047
-0,0248
-0,0627
0,0069
0,0341
2009
0,0650
-0,0036
0,0128
0,0744
-0,0066
-0,0122
Switzerland The Swiss energy market is specific since only electricity distribution tariffs are regulated. Natural gas
plays only a minor role in the Swiss energy industry. Around 75% of electric energy is imported from
abroad. The transmission grid is operated by Swissgrid, whereas the most of electricity distribution is
ensured by several large vertically integrated companies, called "Überlandwerke" (for instance, Alpiq,
Axpo or CKW). However, there are hundreds of small DSOs operating in the country. It is important
to note that the tariff regulator, ElCom, was founded only in 2007.
214
The profitability in terms of ROE and ROCE was increasing since 2005, peaked in 2007 an has been
decreasing since then. Asset utilization has been decreasing since 2006, which, as we shall see, has
been the major cause of the decline in ROE. The liquidity of Swiss energy utilities has been good. As
in the case of other Western countries, the level of debt has been higher which has had a positive effect
on ROE.
Tab. 15: Financial ratios of the Swiss energy distribution sector ROE
ROA
ROS
ROCE
AT
FAT
CR
QR
DR
DER
LR
2005
0,131
0,068
0,097
0,158
0,697
1,091
1,626
1,577
0,572
1,337
2,337
2006
0,175
0,103
0,126
0,227
0,814
1,297
1,850
1,796
0,545
1,200
2,200
2007
0,185
0,098
0,118
0,208
0,827
1,317
1,795
1,746
0,530
1,128
2,128
2008
0,125
0,080
0,114
0,175
0,702
1,193
1,576
1,536
0,544
1,193
2,193
2009
0,100
0,062
0,131
0,139
0,473
0,766
1,486
1,452
0,553
1,239
2,239
The increase of ROE in 2005 was caused by an increase of the profit margin and the asset turnover.
ROE also increased in 2006, but due to the financial cost ratio. The influence of other factorswas
rather negative or negligible. Financial cost ratio and the asset turnover have been the major causes of
a further decline in ROE in 2007. In 2008, ROE continued to decline as a consequence of the decline
in the asset turnover. In order to prevent further decline in ROE, Swiss energy utilities should improve
their asset management.
Tab. 16: Changes of energy utilities ROE in Switzerland
Year
ΔROE
Tax effect
ratio impact
Financial cost
ratio impact
Profit margin
impact
Asset
turnover
impact
Leverage ratio
impact
2006
0,0438
0,0021
-0,0128
0,0401
0,0236
-0,0092
2007
0,0100
-0,0011
0,0263
-0,0120
0,0027
-0,0059
2008
-0,0596
-0,0030
-0,0301
-0,0060
-0,0251
0,0046
2009
-0,0246
0,0055
-0,0039
0,0157
-0,0442
0,0023
Conclusion In this paper we examined financial indicators of the energy distribution industries in Central Europe
and the changes in their profitability.
Traditionally, energy utilities have had a relatively low asset turnover, which is compensated by a
relatively high profit margin. A higher level of debt is acceptable since their financial risk is reduced
by a stable income.
The results of our analysis indicate that generally, debt is used to a lesser extent in Eastern countries of
the region (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary). Since debt is generally less costly than
equity, the Western companies reduce the cost of their capital by increasing the proportion of debt.
Eastern energy markets are also more concentrated than the Western ones.
The Czech energy utilities should improve their asset management in order to raise the asset turnover
which would have a positive influence on their profitability. They should also raise the proportion of
liquid funds to reduce financial risk and improve short-term solvency.
The Slovak firms have had high liquidity ratios which indicates a relatively low return on their liquid
assets, which could have been used in a more economic way. The negative impact of declining asset
turnover on ROE signalizes that asset utilization should be improved.
The Hungarian companies are using more debt, which is positive, but their low liquidity increase the
financial risk and thus their cost of equity. A declining profit margin had a negative effect on ROE,
which means that Hungarian energy utilities should better manage their costs, as the regulated tariffs
cannot be directly influenced. Hungarian utilites had a good performance in terms of the asset
management.
215
The Polish utilities should raise their leverage and asset utilization since it has been decreasing. In
terms of profitability and liquidity, the Polish energy distribution sector had a good performance. The
growing profit margin had a positive effect on ROE.
The Austrian companies had a higher level of debt, which has been decreasing and therefore reducing
their ROE. Other factor (asset turnover and profit margin) also played an important role in the
decreasing profitability of the firms. The liquidity of Austrian companies has been low.
The German utilities had the highest leverage and an increasing asset management performance. Their
liquidity could be improved by using more liquid assets.
The Swiss companies have been doing well in terms of liquidity and leverage but their asset utilization
has been an important cause of the declining ROE in the last two years.
The analysis did not include all of the regulated companies since not all data was available. We did not
deal with capital market analysis ratios since the companies are often not listed on stock exchanges.
The monitoring of financial indicators is important for regulatory bodies in order to ensure a good
quality of the service provided which is often essential and has a strategic importance for the national
economy or security. Some financial indicators are also used in regulatory pricing formulas (for
instance, the allowed rate-of-return value is influenced by the D/E ratio).
Bibliography 1. KISLINGEROVÁ, E., HNILICA, J. Finanční analýza krok za krokem. Praha : C.H. Beck,
2005.
2. KAHN, A. The Economics of Regulation: Principles and Institutions. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT
Press, 1988.
3. MACHEK, O., HNILICA, J. Metody regulace síťových odvětví. Ekonomika a management,
2010. Vol. 4, No 3. 9p.
4. SWIERCZEK, F. W. Measuring the Performance of Public Enterprises: An Example for
Developing Countries. The Asian Journal of Public Administration, 1989. Vol. 11, No. 1. 25p.
5. KESSIDES, I. Hungary: “A Regulatory and Structural Review of Selected Infrastructure
Sectors.“ World Bank Technical Paper no. 474. Washington DC, 2000.
6. HANEY, A., POLITT, M. “Efficiency Analysis of Energy Networks : An International Survey
of Regulators.“ Energy Policy. Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pp. 5814-5830. 2009.
7. Czech Republic. Energetický regulační úřad. “Závěrečná zpráva ERÚ o metodice regulace III.
regulační období.“ Prague: ERÚ, 2009.
8. Slovakia. Úrad pre reguláciu sieťových odvetví. “Výnos Úradu pre reguláciu sieťových odvetví
z 10. júna 200 č. 4/2009.“ Bratislava: ÚRSO, 2009.
9. Hungary. Magyar Energía Hivatal. “Methodology for determination of approved operating
costs by benchmarking.“ Budapest: MEH, 2009.
10. Switzerland. Verband Schweizerischer Elektrizitätsunternehmen. “Kostenrechnungsschema für
Verteilnetzbetreiber der Schweiz. “ VSE, 2009.
This paper was written with financial support from the Internal Grant Agency of the University of
Economics in Prague, project No. F3/22/2011 "Regulation of energy utilites in Central Europe and the
possibilities for improvement."
THE IMPACTS OF NEW BANKING REGULATION
ON CZECH BANKING SECTOR148
Ing. Zdeněk PAVLÍK
University of Economics, Prague, Faculty of International Relations
[email protected]
Introduction
This article attempts to map out the areas where the impact of individual regulation proposals could
be significant or substantial on the Czech banking sector. The proposed measures of the new banking
regulation try to strengthen the resilience of the banking sector in order to achieve long-term
sustainable economic growth. The measures are proposed as a response to the financial and economic
crisis and it can be said under time pressure, because it is not expected that a new crisis is coming
soon. They are also proposed by various institutions and thus it could be relatively easy to comply with
each of the indicators separately. The regulation change would affect not only individual indicators
and their calibration, but also issues which are difficult to be quantified (ie, risk management,
accounting regime, corporate governance), (Niedermayer, 2010).
The article will try to explain that some of the proposed measures would have no strong impact on
the Czech banks. Also the direct impact of most regulation measures on the Czech banking sector
should not be too significant.
In the first part of the article there would be analyzed the main features of the Czech banking sector.
These features have a significant impact on the situation in the Czech banking sector in relation to the
new banking regulation. The second part will focused on the main measures of the new banking
regulation and its impacts on the Czech banking sector.
1.
The main features of the Czech banking sector (CBS)
1.1. Last two decades of the CBS
In order to assess the impact of the new world banking regulation on the Czech banking sector
(CBS), it is necessary to describe its basic features in the context of its historical development. There
were many fundamental changes to the CBS after 1990 (Bárta & Singer, 2010). At present, the CBS
seems to be very sound and stable, which can be proved by its development in the financial crisis in
the last three years. Also the fact that Czech banks are controlled by foreign financial institutions plays
the key role for the general transformation and current stability of the CBS.149 It is possible to divide
the presence of the foreign banks in the CBS into two stages, the first being the development since the
beginning of the 90’s, when some of foreign banks began to operate in the Czech market in connection
with liberalisation of the banking sector. This entry was mostly realised through establishing branches
and subsidiaries (Černohlávková, 2004). The second stage came at the end of the 90’s, when it
appeared obvious that inadequately dispersed and non-transparent ownership of Czech banks and
connected ineffective state control began to be unsustainable for the CBS. The efficiency,
competitiveness and finally profitability of Czech banks were relatively weak under the general
macroeconomic view. These facts led to the need of seeking strong and strategic investors that could
148
This paper was prepared within the Research Project IGA “Řešení dopadů finanční a ekonomické krize na
vývozce v ČR”, Nr. F2/19/2010.
149
More in: Nejedly, M.; Pavlik, Z. The Impact of Financial and Economic Crisis on Czech Exporters: Bank
Transmission Channel. Porto 09.12.2010 – 11.12.2010. In: EIBA 2010. 36th EIBA Annual Conference. Porto:
European International Business Academy, 2010, s. 1–23.
218
stabilise Czech banks and lead the CBS to sustainable growth.150 The share of these privatised big
banks on the whole CBS is shown in Table 1.151
Table 1: Number of banks in the CBS according to the ownership
Number of banks according to the ownership
31.12.2007
31.12.2008
All banks (to date)
37
37
Bank structure according to the ownership
All
8
7
Banks with state
Banks with
participation
2
2
dominant Czech
Banks with
participation
dominant Czech
participation
6
5
All
29
30
in it
banks with
Banks with
dominant foreign
dominant foreign
participation
15
14
participation
Branches of
foreign banks
14
16
31.12.2009
39
30.6.2010
40
7
8
2
2
5
32
6
32
14
14
18
18
Source: Czech National Bank (2010b).
Nevertheless, the privatisation process of the CBS cannot be always considered as entirely
successful. Some foreign financial institutions tried to make use of the gaps in the financial sector
regulation, which was not strict enough and had no clearly determined competencies (Černohlávková,
2004).152 The Czech Republic incurred considerable costs to cover losses flowing from the
malfunction of the CBS in order to reach soundness of Czech banks. The costs of this privatisation
project are estimated to CZK 100 billion (Havel, 2004). The analysis of the Czech Ministry of finance
provides information that the costs of this privatisation project were even CZK 370 billion (Ministry of
finance, 2004). The privatisation of big Czech banks was almost finished in 2001 and the CBS could
take the path of traditional universal banking using the experience of the foreign banks without any
government interventions into bank decision-making process. Between 1999 and 2000 the Czech
economy was slowly recovering from the recession, which influenced positively the development of
the CBS in the following years (Jílek & Jílková, 1999). This development can be illustrated by sudden
improvement in the non-performance credit development from approximately 23 % in 2003 to
approximately 5 % of the total number of provided credits (Bárta & Singer, 2004). It was also
important that the privatisation of Czech banks led to gradual improvement of the financial services
rendered by commercial banks. They also extended their activities and increased the offered scope of
products of good quality, for example the services related to financial derivates, syndicated loans,
factoring and forfeiting, etc. The most important fact in the transformation and privatisation process
was that the attitude to risk changed within the bank policy and within the bank regulation, which is
one of the key determinants to the CBS.
150
In January 1998 the privatisation process started by the state selling 36 % of the shares in the Investiční a
poštovní banka (Investment and Postal Bank) to Nomura International. This was followed by the sale of the
majority of shares in Agrobanka to General Electric Capital Services in June 1998. In 1999 almost 66 % of
shares in Československá obchodní banka a.s. were privatized and gained by today’s KBC. After that, in 2000
52 % of the shares in Česká spořitelna a.s. went to the Austrian Erste Bank and finally in 2001 the rest of the
state shares in Komerční banka a.s. was sold to French Société Générale (Bárta & Singer, 2004).
151
In recent times the business strategy and financial policy of Czech banks are thus determined by the
decisions that are taken within foreign parent banks. These decisions are subsequently implemented into the
basic business strategy of domestic banks. The French bank Société Générale (owning Komerční banka a.s.),
Austrian Erste Bank (owning Česká spořitelna a.s.), Belgian KBC (owning Československá obchodní banka,
a.s.) and Italian UniCredit Group (owing UniCredit Bank Czech Republic a.s.) belong to the main foreign parent
banks.
152
As an example we can mention Nomura International and the case of Investment and Postal Bank, which
resulted in the arbitration with the Czech Republic and which was terminated for the time being in 2009.
219
1.2. The main characteristics of the CBS
The fact that Czech banks are owned by international parent banks is, together with the historical
experience of the CBS from the 90’s (Černohlávková, 2004; Bárta & Singer, 2004), crucial for the
CBS having maintained stable and sustainable development. This development allowed its relatively
moderate reaction to the existing global financial crisis and led to the direct impacts of the global
financial crisis on Czech banks being practically negligible. The successful development of the CBS is
determined by the following factors: (i) sufficient liquidity, (ii) sufficient volume of external sources in
the form of clients’ deposits, (iii) negligible portion of foreign currency credits, i.e. credits provided in
other currencies than Czech crowns, (iv) nearly zero portion of toxic assets in the balance sheets of
Czech banks, and (v) stable capitalization and increasing profitability of the CBS (Singer, 2010). All
features described are covered in the traditional conservative banking model.153
1.2.1. Sufficient liquidity, relative isolation and sufficient volume of sources
The CBS disposed of sufficient liquidity before the outbreak of the global financial crisis as well as
in the course of it. Czech banks have always had enough external sources in the form of clients’
deposits to finance their business activities. From this point of view, Czech enterprises, including the
export enterprises, have not suffered from insufficient bank credit availability. The problem for Czech
enterprises is the indirect impact of the financial crisis. Czech banks became much more prudent in
their approach to risk in reaction to the following stage of crisis, the economic crisis.
Apart from sufficient liquidity the relative isolation is a relevant feature of the CBS. Czech
Republic has maintained its own currency and it has relatively low interest rates thanks to the stable
and low inflation rate (measured by CPI). These facts do not compel Czech citizens or Czech firms to
transfer their savings abroad. The CBS is thus relatively isolated from foreign banking sectors and has
enough own sources to finance not only export activities. The relative isolation and sufficient liquidity
in the CBS are confirmed by the development of clients’ deposits to provided credits. In 2008 the ratio
of clients’ deposits to credits was the highest in the EU. Reports of the Czech National Bank and the
European Central Bank regarding financial stability in the Czech Republic showed that this ratio
reached in the Czech Republic almost 140 % in 2009. Only Belgium with the ratio almost 135 % and
the Slovak Republic with the ratio almost 120 % were in comparable position. Other European Union
countries were under the level of 100 % and the average ratio of clients’ deposits to provided credits in
the whole European Union reached approximately 90 % (the Euro-zone refers the same ratio).
1.2.2. Negligible portion of foreign currency credits154
Negligible portion of foreign currency credits is closely connected with two key indicators, the first
being the low gross external debt of Czech banks (in % of GDP), second being their net external
position (in % of GDP) (CNB, 2010). The gross external debt of the CBS is one of the lowest in the
European Union. At the end of the year 2008 this indicator reached the level of 10 % which is similar
to Poland and Slovak Republic.155
The indicator of the net external position of the CBS was approximately +7 % of the Gross
domestic product of the Czech Republic at the end of the year 2008. There are only two countries with
153
Many economists have named erosion of traditional conservative banking model as one of causes of the
world financial crisis. Nevertheless, the CBS has been keeping this traditional banking model of its business
activity which could be demonstrated by Figure 1 in section 1.2.4. (the development of credits and account
receivables to non-financial clients and households) and by a very small share of classified loans.
154
In terms of liquidity mentioned in section 1.2.1., CBS is relatively separated from foreign countries with
other currencies, especially euro. The fact that Czech banks did not provide foreign currency credits in a higher
extent was an important factor characterizing the CBS in the times of crisis. This fact was i.a. influenced by the
policy of parent banks towards domestic banks. Czech banks were not dependent upon proper function of
derivate and other forward markets when securing their exchange rate risk.
155
For example in Germany and France this indicator is above 50 %, in Austria and Denmark above 100 % and
in Belgium above 150 % and in United Kingdom this indicator is above 200 %. The average gross external debt
in European Union moved around 100 %, which was approximately ten-times more than in the Czech Republic.
220
a positive level of this indicator (the Czech Republic and Slovenia) among Eastern European countries
(CNB, 2010).
1.2.3. Minimal portion of toxic assets and stable capitalization and profitability
A negligible portion of toxic assets was another relevant feature of the CBS. The portion of toxic
assets in the total assets of big Czech banks amounts to less than 1 % (Singer, 2010), which evidences
that the CBS is very sound and not burdened by the costs related to the re-evaluation of toxic assets in
the balance sheets as it was common in numerous banks in the USA and Western Europe. It must be
noted that the CBS did not need any financial injection.
Finally, it is necessary to state that the CBS has been well capitalized and profitable. The
conservative model has brought to Czech banks the advantages represented by relatively stable
revenues from financial activities. They have been able to generate long-term stable revenues mainly
through their business portfolios. They could also realize the net profit in difficult times when the costs
of risk were increasing. The year 2009 was not an exception. As per the data of the Czech National
Bank the capital adequacy of big Czech banks moved around 12.84 % at the end of the year 2009 and
their profit reached approximately CZK 60 billion, which is just c. by 30 % higher value than in the
year before.156
2.
The impacts of the new banking regulation on the CBS
2.1. The new banking regulation
The global financial and economic crisis brought about, inter alia, a new perspective on the current
form of financial market regulation. For this reason, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
(BCBS) has responded to the financial crisis. BCBS has drafted regulatory measures called “Basel III”,
which should be directed to strengthening the resilience and reliability of the banking sector and a
further significant decrease probability of financial crisis, and all in the interest of long-term
sustainable economic growth (Lausmanova, 2010; Walter, 2011). Basel III is defined as
“a comprehensive set of reform measures, developed by the BCBS, to strengthen the regulation,
supervision and risk management of the banking sector and aim to: 1) improve the banking sector's
ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic stress, whatever the source, 2) improve
risk management and governance and 3) strengthen banks' transparency and disclosures“ (BIS, 2011).
According to the BSBC analysis the implementation of Basel III after the financial and economic
crisis is in place, because the benefits of a stronger financial market regulation should exeed its costs.
Costs included in Basell III arising from stronger regulatory capital and liquidity requirements and also
from more intense and intrusive supervision. On the other side the BSBC analysis has found the
benefits to society. These benefits would be higher than the costs to individual institutions. According
to the BSBC analysis focusing on long-term economic impacts is clear that capital and liquidity
requirements could be increased while positive net economic benefits would remain (Walter, 2011).
In relation to BCBS it is importatnt to mention that other world institutions are focused on new
regulation rules and prepare specific legislative measures, interpretation of requirements and impact
analysis. These institutions include: European Commission (EC), Financial Stability Board (FSB),
Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS), Institute of International Finance (IIF) or
International Monetary Fund (IMF).
2.2. The main measures of the new banking regulation
The main measures proposed at the European Commission (EC) are:
a) the requirement for a higher quality of capital, particularly the emphasis on equity, which is able
to absorb risk,
b) improved coverage of risks, particularly market risk and counterparty risk,
c) the leverage ratio – it is focused on prevention of excessive growth of balance and off-balance
sheet transactions (independent on risk),
156
It must be added that the profit increases of Czech banks were influenced by a number of extraordinary
transactions without which the profits would have stayed at 2008 level.
221
d) capital “pillows” (capital buffer) – creating of reserves in good times for crisis period,
e) minimum standards for managing liquidity (both short and long term),
f) improving banking supervision, corporate governance, risk management and the fields of
publications and information,
g) FSB: Addressing systemic risk – additional requirements for SIFIs (Important Systematic
Financial Institutions), (Lausmanova, 2010).
Focusing on more fundamental nature of the proposed regulatory measures, it is necessary to point
out risks connected with the newly adopted regulation. According to the governor of the Czech
National Bank from the point of view of the Czech economy the desired objectives of banking
regulation is to ensure smooth and safe functioning of the financial system with the lowest cost. More
closely it is following: developing financial markets, promoting the stability of the nation's financial
system, minimize space for distortion of competition environment thanks to a regulatory arbitrage,
minimize regulatory costs, promoting the competitiveness of the economy and simple rules (Singer,
2010b). To achieve the mentioned objectives of banking regulation it should be analyzed any risks that
might be associated with its "galloping" implementation. Regulators should take into account the
possible political pressure on the extensive expansion of new banking regulation as a reaction to crisis
and they should not forget on quality of this regulation (Danhel, Duchackova, 2011).
According to Basel III the measures of the new banking regulation could be divided into two
categories: 1) a firm-specific, risk based framework (a strict definition of capital, enhanced risk
coverage calibration of the new requirements from the point of view of capital ratio indicator and
capital conservation) and 2) a system-wide, systemic risk-based framework (leverage ratio,
countercyclical buffer, systemically important institutions: additional loss-absorbing capacity,
systemically important markets and infrastructures, capture of systemic risk/tail events in stress testing
and risk modelling and systemic oversight and pillar II), (Hannoun, 2010).
The main measures of the new banking regulation according to the Basel III are focused on
following fields: a) capital, b) liquidity and c) leverage ratio.
Basis for Basel III is to strengthen the capital adequacy ratio (CAR). CAR could be defined as the
ability to absorb risk which monitors the ratio: Capital / Risk. It has, however, affect on performance
due to the risk or to the necessary capital (it means to be effective and meet the expectations of the
owner), (Lausmanova, 2010). The aim of the regulatory proposals refers to CAR is to increase the
share of capital quality and volume of capital to cover risk by the following way: increase the
proportion of tier 1 as a part of regulatory capital (8% of risk-weighted exposures) from 2% of risk
weighted exposures of a bank to 4.5% – gradually in 2015, create another tier 1 capital cushion against
future stress on the development of capital markets in the amount of tier 1 2.5% from risk-weighted
exposure – gradually in 2019, and target status in 2019: regulatory capital amounting to 10.5% from
risk-weighted assets, of which: 7% core tier 1, 1.5% of other tier 1, 2% tier 2 (Singer, 2010b).
Regarding liquidity the financial crisis has clearly shown that the rules of the liquidity management
of banking institutions may be ineffective. Also in reaction to crisis the BSBC has prepared the
Principles for Sound Liquidity Risk Management and Supervision. For effective supervision the BSBC
has developed two basic criteria for assessing the liquidity of the financial institution. Depending on
the length of the term are considered the following ratios (BIS, 2009):
1. Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) – LCR is defined as the ratio of high-quality liquid assets, on
which are no rights of third parties and net cash outflow in run 30 days. The ratio LCR is
counted: Supply high quality liquid assets / Net cash outflows in 30 days > 100%. Achieving
this condition should provide the resistance to a sudden crisis, which could include: significant
deterioration in rating of the financial institution, partial loss of deposits, failures in the
unsecured funding source, etc. Looking ahead, the practical application of LCR in the
evaluation and simulation of crisis scenarios is based on the fundamental definition of quality
liquid assets.
2. Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) – NSFR is designed to assess the resilience of banking
institutions to the crisis scenario, lasting for more than 1 year. To meet this ratio should
encourage financial institutions to the sustainable model of financing the assets and business
activities. Formally, NSFR is expressed as follows: Amount of available funding sources / the
222
required amount of the financing sources > 100%. The numerator means own equity and those
liabilities that for financial institutions remain available for at least one year, even if the
occurrence of crisis situation. These liabilities could be preferred shares with a maturity equal to
or greater than 1 year or debt with a maturity 1 year and more, etc. If NSFR is greater than 1
(100%), the bank has adequate long-term stable funding for its assets and off-balance sheet
exposures, and also the bank should withstand the problematic long-term time (BIS, 2009).
Finally, regarding the leverage ratio, Basel III is focused on restrictions on leverage. In the period
before the financial meltdown occurred, the financial institutions had maintained the excessive
leverage. Increase in using an excessive degree of leverage began in the year 2003 and was mainly
associated with investments in structured products. By contrast, shortly after the outbreak of crisis in
the second half of 2007 a significant reduction in leverage occurred. In this context the introduction of
additional criteria for leverage should be launch and their launching should prevent the pro-cyclical
behaviour of financial institutions.157This tool should be a degree of leverage – leverage ratio (LR),
(BIS, 2009). LR can be simply written as follows: Capital / Degree of leverage = Total exposure.158
With regard to the negotiations at the G20 it is currently under discussion to set the parameters of this
indicator. In practice, LR should be implemented by the end of 2012 (BIS, 2009; Lausmanova, 2010).
2.3. Impacts of the new banking regulation on the CBS
2.4.
2.4.1.
CAR – capital adequacy
The CBS has had sufficient capital adequacy with high capital quality. The high profitability in
recent years is directly reflected in the values of total capital (14.1%), and capital adequacy Tier 1
(12.7%, at the end of 2009). It was mainly realized through the strengthening of regulatory capital
from retained earnings. In addition for the first time since 2002 it is clear that all banks remain a total
capital ratio above 10%. It could be seen in Fig. 1. In the first months 2010 it appeared that although
the share of profits paid in dividends form the year 2009 would again slightly increased, the regulatory
capital in the form undistributed profits would significantly strengthen (CNB, 2010c).
Fig. 1: Capital adequacy development of the CBS (2002 – 2010; in %)
Note: left scale (red) – CAR and right scale (blue) – the share of banks with CAR below 10% of the
sector's assets. Source: Data come from the Czech National Bank (2010c).
In the year 2008 the total capital adequacy of the CBS was on the european average. The quality of
regulatory capital measured by Tier 1 capital to total regulatory capital was the second highest value. It
could be seen in Fig. 2.
157
Because, in good times there are excessive investments and loans, while in bad times banks significantly
reduce their investments and lending activities. If it is took into account the fact that capital adequacy rules
cannot limit the degree of leverage, at the Basel Committee, at the G20 and at other professional institutions are
discussed proposals to introduce additional criteria to risk-weighted approach taken under the rules of Basel II
capital adequacy.
158
As regards the definition of capital, as the European Commission proposes to include in the calculation of all
items that contain regulatory core capital Tier 1 or Tier 1 capital as defined by Basel II. If the denominator of a
fraction are considered off-balance sheet exposures and off-bank financial institutions in their value. The model
thus considers only the gross exposure, ie. treatment does not reflect the risks from exposure through hedge
instruments.
223
Fig. 2: The quality of the regulatory capital in the CBS – comparsion
Source: Data come from the Czech National Bank (2010c).
The question is the impact of international initiatives to improve capital. A high proportion of
retained earnings in the regulatory capital is often source of debate about the "durability", because the
shareholders may relatively easy drain this capital to the permitted level of regulatory limits for Tier 1
capital and possibly replace with the subordinace debt (Tier 2 capital). In comparison between EU
countries in the Czech republic it could be found a relatively large space for such moving in regulatory
capital. It is very interesting that existing international initiatives, which were mentioned above, want
to have the regulatory capital composed from the highest quality components, but paradoxically, it
may likely increase these exchanges in capital. Internationally active banking groups, to which the
Czech banks are connected, could be far more touched to optimizme capital equipment not only on a
consolidated basis, but also for individual subsidiary. Countries where the financial subsidiaries of
globaly operating financial institutions have a relatively higher capital quality, like Czech republic,
could serve as a resource to strengthen the capital of the group in other countries, subject to regulatory
limits (CNB, 2010c).
2.4.2.
LCR and NSFR – liquidity
Introduction of two new minimum liquidity standards, which was mentioned above, is being
prepared in order to reduce liquidity risk: LCR and NSFR. Liquidity cushion in the form of highly
liquid assets (government bonds, cash, balances with central banks and debt from banks on demand)
expressed as a percentage of assets and deposits clients after a temporary decline in 2008 began to
increase slightly once again. It could be seen in Fig. 3.
Fig. 3: The liquidity situation in the CBS
Note: Blue colour shows the share of high liquidy assets on total assets of the Czech Real-estate
financial institutions and red colour shows the share of high liquidy assets on total assets of Czech
banks. Source: Data come from the Czech National Bank (2010c).
The main source of financing of assets are deposits of clients with 67% share on total assets at the
end of the year 2009. They provide sufficient liquidity and also the CBS and its business model could
224
be consider safe and stable. The CBS has a surplus of deposits coming from clients, which now exceed
loans for more than 30% (CNB, 2010c). It could be seen in Fig. 4.
Fig. 4: The ratio of deposits to loans in selected EU countries
Source: Data come from the Czech National Bank (2010c).
Also estimated fututre impacts of the new banking regulation on the CBS in the field of liquidity are
folowing: because of the prudent approach in the area of liquidity management of banks and to the
systemic surplus in the CBS (the Czech national bank repo operations amounting to CZK 380 billion),
the impacts of the LCR on the CBS are likely to be insignificant. Regarding the NSFR, it could be
more difficult to meet it, because all Czech banks are operating with shorter funding maturities when
compared to the assets and moreover further extension of maturities can be expected (another issuance
of government bonds, expansion of mortgage loans), (Niedermayer, 2010).
And finally it is important to mention the risks refer to the potencial impacts of the new banking
regulation on CBS: lending restriction and shorter lending period (funds used to meet the liquidity
indicators cannot be used for lending purposes); another factor displacing longer-term loans from the
economy could be increasing offer of government bonds, because they would be also classified
according to maturity; lower returns coming from liquid assets and so it is expected reduction in
profits; increased demand for stable (term) deposits will not only increase their costs, but also reduce
their stability (spillover according to the current level of interest); reduction of the extent of maturity
transformation by the banks (Niedermayer, 2010).
2.4.3.
LR – leverage ratio
Introduction of supplementary indicator LR, which was mentioned above, is being prepared in order
to monitor banks in relation to the existing Basel II risk-based framework. Its main aim is to constrain
the excessive growth of the balance sheet and off-balance sheet items. The LR would constrain balance
sheet assets and off-balance sheet items in relation to capital (equity or Tier 1 capital), regardless of
their risk weighting. Also estimated fututre impacts of the new banking regulation on the CBS in the
field of leverage ratio are folowing: there should be no significant reduction of the complex bank
activities, because of the high level of capitalization. But there could be more significant impacts on
specialized banks focused on retail business like building societies or mortgage banks), whose
exposures maintain a lower risk weight and thus the impact of a simple leverage ratio would be greater
(Niedermayer, 2010). From the point of view of potential impacts, it is similar as in the point regarding
the capital adequacy. But also, the LR is de-motivating in terms of risk management techniques
enhancement and the LR is not neutral in relation to variol business models used by banks due to the
high level of capitalization, due to the high level of capitalization (Niedermayer, 2010).
225
Conclusion
CBS is relatively sound, because it works on the principle of the traditional conservative model of
banking. This model of banking profile began at the turn of the millennium and is thus based primarily
on historical experience of the nineties and on the transformation process, whereby the Czech banks
are subsidiaries of large international financial groups. The fact that Czech banks are owned by
international parent banks is, together with the historical experience of the CBS, crucial for the CBS
having maintained stable and sustainable development. This development allowed its relatively
moderate reaction to the existing global financial crisis and led to the direct impacts of the global
financial crisis on Czech banks being practically negligible. The successful development of the CBS is
determined by the following factors, which are covered in the traditional conservative banking model:
sufficient liquidity, sufficient volume of external sources in the form of clients’ deposits, negligible
portion of foreign currency credits, i.e. credits provided in other currencies than Czech crowns, nearly
zero portion of toxic assets in the balance sheets of Czech banks, and stable capitalization and
increasing profitability.
The global financial and economic crisis brought about, inter alia, a new perspective on the current
form of financial market regulation. For this reason, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has
responded to the financial crisis so, that has drafted regulatory measures Basel III, which should be
directed to strengthening the resilience and reliability of the banking sector and a further significant
decrease probability of financial crisis, and all in the interest of long-term sustainable economic
growth. Instead of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision other world institutions are focused
on new regulation rules and prepare specific legislative measures, interpretation of requirements and
impact analysis.
The main measures proposed at the European Commission are: the requirement for a higher quality
of capital, particularly the emphasis on equity, which is able to absorb risk, improved coverage of
risks, particularly market risk and counterparty risk, the leverage ratio – it is focused on prevention of
excessive growth of balance and off-balance sheet transactions (independent on risk), capital “pillows”
(capital buffer) – creating of reserves in good times for crisis period, minimum standards for managing
liquidity (both short and long term), improving banking supervision, corporate governance, risk
management and the fields of publications and information, FSB: Addressing systemic risk –
additional requirements for SIFIs (Important Systematic Financial Institutions).
The main measures of the new banking regulation according to the Basel III refer to: capital,
liquidity and leverage ratio.
Capital adequacy would be expressed as ratio: improved capital / better estimate of risk > 10.5%
and changes in calculation of the capital asset ratio would lead to higher sustainability. These changes
are: simplification of the capital structure, strengthening of core capital, adjustments in deductions of
equity interests and significant equity investments in financial institutions, safety cushion to 2.5%
(gradually, between 2016-2019) and countercyclical pillow. Estimated impacts of the new banking
regulation in the Czech Republic from the point of view of capital are based on the conservative
approach in relation to the capital; it still does not allow inclusion of hybrid instruments in Tier 1. Also
there would be probably no impact at all. Most of the regulatory capital of the Czech banks consists of
equity. However, there are also Czech banks which are currently just above the 10% capital adequacy
limit. But a different situation may arise in case of parent banks, which could resolve their lack of
capital and also could influence their behaviour towards their Czech subsidiaries (Niedermayer, 2010).
Concerning liquidity the financial crisis has clearly shown that the rules of the liquidity
management may be ineffective. Also for effective supervision the Principles for Sound Liquidity Risk
Management and Supervision were prepared. In this framework two basic criteria for assessing the
liquidity of the financial institution were constructed: LCR – liquidity coverage ratio (short term) and
NSFR – net stable funding ratio (long term). In the CBS there is maintained a favorable loan to deposit
ratio (<1) compared to the EU (> 1). The problematic could be NSFR, because of financing for
overnight deposits and issuing bonds with shorter maturities. The need to hold liquid assets may lead
to restrictions on lending and reduction in income due to lower yield of liquid assets and the need for
expensive long-term deposits.
226
Finally, regarding the indicator LR, which main aim is to constrain the excessive growth of the
balance sheet and off-balance sheet items, the estimated future impacts of the new banking regulation
on the CBS in the field of leverage ratio could be: no significant reduction of the complex bank
activities, because of the high level of capitalization, but there could be more significant impacts on
specialized banks focused on retail business like building societies or mortgage banks), whose
exposures maintain a lower risk weight and thus the impact of a simple leverage ratio would be
greater. From the point of view of potential impacts, it is similar as in the point regarding the capital
adequacy. But also, the LR is de-motivating in terms of risk management techniques enhancement and
the LR is not neutral in relation to various business models used by banks due to due to the high level
of capitalization.
227
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CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN - INFLUENCE OF
THIRD COUNTRIES, EUROAREA IN THE CARIBBEAN,
POSSIBILITIES FOR CZECH ENTREPRENEURS
Pavel STIEGLER, University of Economics, Prague
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic
Bilateral Economic Relations and Export Promotion Department
Email: [email protected], 1.5.2011
Abstract: This paper is focused on the description of the Euro-Caribbean relationship. It briefly
analyses the possibilities for Czech traders and offers an idea regarding the existence of European
Territory in the Caribbean (DOM-TOM). This paper is focused on the Caribbean organization and
other regional initiatives. It points out the influence of USA, Canada, China, Japan, Venezuela in
Central America and the Caribbean.
Keywords: CARICOM, CARIFORUM, CSME, CRNM, OECS, UWI, ACS, Rio Group, G3, CACM,
DR-CAFTA, CBI, CBERA, CBTPA, CARIBCAN, CIDA, DOMs-TOMs, The Socialism of the
21.century ALBA, Petrocaribe.
1. Introduction
The Caribbean region is caracterized by the presence of several cultures. It is composed of a great
number of small island states that have monoculture economy (sugar cane, coffee), they face the
regular attacks of natural disasters (hurricanes, tropical storms, earthquakes (Haiti-2010)). It is a region
of historical impact of world powers (Spain, France, United Kingdom,USA). Some of those small
islands states got its indepedence relatively recently. According to the EU model, that countries formed
the CARICOM (15 countries of the Caribbean Basin). Number of the CARICOM members are part of
the OECS (Organization of Eastern Caribbean States) and have common currency (Eastern Caribbean
Dollar - ECD). CARICOM tries to upgrade and finish the integration by forming the CSME
(CARICOM Single Market and Economy). EU reached to sign with ACP countires the EPA159
agreements (October-November 2008). The EPAs should improve the access of Caribbean goods to
EU market. EU also signed the Asociation Agreement with Central America. The Central America and
the Dominican Republic formed a Free Trade Agreement with USA.
159
Consulted with Aude Maio Coliche - Delegation of European Commission, Caracas:
<http://www.delven.ec.europa.eu/es/Index.htm>
230
This table show the variety of the Caribbean islands states.
Table n.1:
The division of the Caribbean according to the used language:
Country
Language
Independent states
Country
Language
Saint Kitts and Nevis
English
Antigua and Barbuda
English
Saint Lucia
English
The Bahamas
English
Saitn Vincent and the Grenadines
English
Barbados
English
Trinidad and Tobago
English
Dominica
English
Dominican Republic
Spanish
Continental states:
Grenada
English
Belize
English
Haiti
French
Guyana
English
Jamaica
English
Suriname
Dutch
Cuba
Spanish
Source: Diplomacia, Julio-Septiembre, 2000, Santiago de Chile, ISSN 0716193X
The Greater Caribbean
In the seventies of the 20th century two publications were written regarding the definitions of the
Caribbean space. Author of the first publication is Eric Williams160 (former Prime Minister of Trinidad
and Tobago). He considered the Caribbean as region of islands states where is used as language
Spanish, English, French, Dutch. This definition included also the three Guyanas161 and Belize. The
second work was written by Juan Bosch162 (former President of the Dominican Republic) who defined
the Caribbean region as region of Antilles, the chain of islands from Mexican Yucatan to Venezuelan
shores. It included also Columbia, Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and
all the islands of that region. This thoughts contributed the the definition of Greater Caribbean. This
was institutionally accepted in the 1994 and got the name of ACS (Association of the Caribbean
States). This „Bosch“ Caribbean is represented generally by Spanish more than by English speaking
people (ratio 4:1), but also by French (Haiti). The English speaking inhabitans in the Caribbean
represent only 3% of the population, but in the organization as CARICOM or CARIFORUM form a
dominant group and occupy more than a half of delegations in ACS.
The Region of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) historically has strong ties to EU countries,
mainly Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, United Kingdom. With the entrance of the Czech Republic to
EU (2004) appeared new opportunities for the promotion of the economic cooperation between the
LAC and the Czech Republic.
2. Euro-Caribbean relationship:
The EU and LAC have strong historical ties, based on a common culture. Those two regions cooperate
on all levels: regional and subregional (Central America, Andean Community, MERCOSUR) and also
on a bilateral basis. The EU is for the Latin American (LA) countries the major investor in LA and
second in importance in trade with LA. The LAC163 region represents only 10% of the world
population, but create only 3% of the world GDP. The EU export to LA represents 5% of total EU
exports 164. The import from LA to EU is also 5% of EU total import. For LA countries the LA export
to EU is 15% of LA total export. EU imports from LA mainly agricultural products (30% of the
import). EU export mainly to Brasil and Mexico, Chile, Argentina. EU is the biggest investor in LA.
160
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Williams
British Guyana- Guyana; Netherlands Guyana – Suriname; French Guyana – French Guiana
162
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Emilio_Bosch_Gavi%C3%B1o
163
LAC=Latin America and the Caribbean
164
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home
161
231
The EU FDI in LA is focused on Mexico, Brasil, Chile, Columbia. Biggest EU investors in LA are:
Spain, United Kingdom, Netherlands, France, Germany, Portugal. The EU has several financial
instruments for the external cooperation. EU uses them to help the developing countries. The EU
budget finances all of them, but the EDF (European Development Fund ) is financed separately by the
member states. The European financial instruments, mainly the EDF, help to create a sound investment
climate which is vital for improving the economic performance of developing countries. The
Caribbean in order to increase the investment should: open their economies to international markets,
make their domestic markets larger and more advanced (regional integration), promote political
stability (confidence among investors), improve macroeconomic policies.
165
The budgetary instruments: a/ ENPI – European Neighbourhood and Partnerhip Instrument,b/IPA – Instrument for Pre
Accession Assistance,c/DCI – Development Cooperation Instrument,d/EIDHR – European Instrument for Democracy and
Human Rights,e/IfS – Instrument for Stability,f/NSCI – Nuclear Safety Cooperation Instrument,g/ ICI – Instrument for
Cooperation with Industrialized Countries.
The Caribbean countries can be divided into dependent and independent:
1/ Dependent Caribbean States: They are part of the territory of: France, Netherlands, United
Kingdom and USA. In English are called OCT (Overseas Countries and Territories) or in French
DOM166 - TOM167.
2/ Independent Caribbean States: in order to make a better connections, imcrease their chances in
the world globalized economy the independent small islands states formed: CARICOM, CSME,
CARIFORUM, OECS.
All ther dependent territories in the Caribbean (except for American Portorico and US Virgin Islands)
form so called Euro Area in the Caribbean. They are located in the Caribbean, but they are a part of
European countries (France, United Kingdom, Netherlands).
Table n.2:
Country
Dependent Caribbean States
Language
France
Country
Language
Velká Británie
French Guiana
French
Anguilla
English
Guadeloupe
French
British Virgin Islands
English
Martinique
French
Caimanské islands
English
Montserrat
English
Turks and Caicos Islands
English
Netherlands
USA
Aruba
Dutch
US Virgin Islands
English
Netherlands Antilles
Dutch
Portoriko
English
Zdroj: Diplomacia, Julio-Septiembre, 2000, Santiago de Chile, ISSN 0716193X
CARICOM enjoyed positive balance of trade with the French DOMs in the period 2002-2006. The
surplus had a 65% increase.It is interesting to realise, that 90% of all the CARICOM exports to French
DOMs are from Trinidad168 and Tobago. So author suggest that for the purposes of the analisis most
scientific effort should focused on the Trinidad and Tobago and MDC (Most Developed Countries) of
165
FDI = Foreign Direct Investment
DOM - Département d’outre-mer
167
TOM - Territoire d'outre-mer
168
Consulted with H.E. Krishna Narinesingh, Honorary Consul to the Czech Republic, Trinidad and Tobago
166
232
the CARICOM (Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago). Imports from French
DOMs increased by 72% in the period 2003-2006. Dominant CARICOM importers from the French
DOMs are Saint Lucia and Dominica, both countries of the organization OECS and CARICOM.
The main initiatives that have an influence on the region Latin America and the Caribbean
(LAC):
Author briefly approximates the main regional institutions and organizations in order to make a
comprehensive summary of the connections and linkages that exist among the Central American and
Caribbean (CAC) nations and partly also links to some European countries. This short analysis could
contribute to the future thinking concerning the promotion of Czech Trade to the CAC nations through
their common policies in organizations (CSME, DR-CAFTA) or using the European territory DOMTOM.
2.1. The Caribbean Initiatives:
The Caribeban community was inspired by the development of the Evuopean Community (European
Union). The CARICOM is formed by 15 countries. From that sum 13 countries speak English, (12 are
independent and dependent Montserrat), Suriname (Dutch), Haiti (French). The secretariat is located
in Guyana. Founded in 1973 by the Treaty of Chaguaramas (signed on Trinidad and Tobago).
• CARIFTA:
The creation of the CARICOM was started by the CARIFTA (in 1965) (Caribbean Free Trade
Association). Members of CARIFTA were: Antigua and Barbuda and Guyana. Other countries
Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica and all the Small Antilles Islands) entered later (1968; 1971- Belize).
The CARIFTA sercetariat was in Guyana (It was then used as a base for the CARICOM secretariat). In
October 1969 was founded the CDB (Caribbean Development Bank) settled in Bridgetown, Barbados.
• CARICOM169:
The VIII. Conference of CARIFTA (1973) took the decision to create the future Caribbean
Community (CARICOM). The Agreement of Chaguaramas (1.8.1973). Founding members:
Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana and Jamaica. The main issues to be solved by the CARICOM
are: reconstruction of regional institutions, cooperation with USA (CBI), Canada (CARIBCAN),
Venezuela (bilateral agreement and the Petrocaribe initiative).
Members of the CARICOM are: Antigua and Barbuda (4 July 1974 ), Bahamas (4 July 1983),
Barbados (1 August 1973), Belize (1 May 1974), Dominica (1 May 1974), Grenada (1 May 1974),
Guyana (1 August 1973), Haiti (2 July 2002), Jamaica (1 August 1973), Montserrat (1 May 1974
British OCT Territory), Saint Kitts and Nevis (26 July 1974), Saint Lucia (1 May 1974 ), Saint
Vincent and the Grenadines (1 May 1974), Suriname (4 July 1995), Trinidad a Tobago (1 August
1973).
• CARIFORUM
CARIFORUM is a regional forum that serves for political negotiations. CARIFORUM is formed by
all the CARICOM countries and the Dominican Republic. The observers are Cuba and Haiti. This
forum connects the English speaking Caribbean countries with the Spanish oriented caribbean nations.
The Dominican Republic has through the agreement DR-CAFTA a direct link to the Central American
Countries and the USA. In this regard is interesting to analyse the position of the Dominican republic.
This Caribbean Island country is very active and has become a member of DR-CAFTA as well as of
CARIFORUM. Thanks to the membership in the CARIFORUM has a linkage to EU. The Dominican
Republic thus represents the bridge among the Caribbean, the Central America, EU and USA.
•
169
CSME:
www.caricom.org
233
CSME is a CARICOM project. Its objective is to create a CARICOM Single Market and Economy.
The decision to create such a market and union happened in May of the zdar 1992 on Barbados. The
main lesson of this initiative is the endeavour to reach bigger engagement of the CARICOM into the
international trade, the global economy, and to acquire the posiibilities of the competition advantage,
improve the efficiency, education, transfer of technologies, know-how. The Caribbean Single Market
already exists, operates. To reach the common internal market the national legislation must be
harmonized, create the common custom tariffs, prepare common procedures. These proceses are
influenced by players like
WTO, IMF, EU and their multilateral agreements on teade, cystom tariffs, effort to liberalize the
international trade. Nevertheless, the recent EPA agreements between the EU and the ACP countries
cover also the CSME issue. The CSME has as a main objective to introdukce a common currency and
mutual convertibility.
•
CRNM
The Caribbean Regional Negotiationg Machinery was created in the year 1997. Its goal is to
coordinate and reinforce the role and positron of the CARICOM in the region and in the international
negotiations. The main purpose of the CRNM was: creation of FTAA (sofar not done); relationship
ACP and EU (now EPA agreements); multilateral negotiations within WTO. The CRNM170 has a
seat on Barbados and in the Dominican Republic. CRNM is aktive in the field of: a/ CRNM – WTO;
b) CRNM – EPA 171; c/ CRNM – CANADA; d/ CRNM – bilateral agreements of the CARICOM.
The CRNM members: Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cuba, Dominica,
Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Saitn Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint
Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago.
• OECS
Some of the CARICOM member states are also member of the Organization OECS (Organization of
the Eastern Caribbean States). It is a CARICOM subset. The quarters of the organization is on Antigua
and Barbuda.The economies of the OECS member states are highly dependent on: tourism, banana
and sugar industry. These are the comodities in Langer due to the preferential access to the EU
markets. These area is covered by the Cotonou Agreements and the recent EPA Agreements. OECS
has its own Central Bank and common currency, the Eastern Caribbean Dollar-ECD (1USD=2,7ECD).
Members of the OECS172: Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint
Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Montserrat.
The associate members of the CARICOM:
CDB173
The Caribbean Development Bank is a financial institution that assists and helps to the member states
financing economic and social programs. It was founded on 18. 10. 1969 in Jamaica. The seat of the
bank is located on Barbados. Members of the CDB: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas,
Barbados, Belize, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti,
Jamaica, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad
and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands. Regional membership: Mexico, Venezuela. Outside the
region members are: Brasil (15.12. 2010), Canada, Chna, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom.
University UWI:
170
171
http://www.crnm.org/
http://www.crnm.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=276&Itemid=76
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_of_Eastern_Caribbean_States
173
www.caribank.org
172
234
University of West Indies has 4 Campuses that cover the Caribbean: Cave Hill (Barbados), Mona
(Jamajca) and St. Augustine (Trinidad and Tobago) and so called Open Campus.
The UWI has currently 39000 of students. In UWI studied 8 regional Prime Ministers (for example:
G. M. Richards – president of Trinidad and Tobago, K. O. Hall-former Governor of Jamaica, K.
Anthony-former PM of Saint Lucia).
2.2. Regional Initiatives:
• ACS:
The Association of Caribbean States is a very important organization in the Region of Latin America.
It concerns the Bosch definition of the Greater Caribbean, the Region of the Central America.
The relationship among the Caribbean states and the Central America
(CARICOM, OECS, ACS):
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_Caribbean_States
Organization ACS was created in order to promote the cooperation and relationship among the
Caribbean states. ACS is composed of 25 countries and has 4 associated members. The creation of the
ACS occured on 24.7.1994 in Columbia. The secretariat is on Trinidad and Tobago. The member
states of ACS:Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Dominican Republic,
Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Columbia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Mexico,
Nicaragua, Panama, Salvador, Saint Kitts and Nevis, , Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela. Associated members: Aruba, Curazao, San Maarten –
French part, Turks and Caicos Islands. Observers: Argentina, Brasil, Canada, Chile, Ecuador,
Egypt, Finland, India, Italy, Netherlands, South Corea, Peru, Russia, Spain, Turkey, Ukrain,
United Kingdom.
The Observer Status in ACS also have other organizations: CARICOM (Caribbean Community),
CTO (Caribbean Tourism Organization), SICA (Central American Integration System), SIECA
(General Agreement on Central American Economic Integration), SELA (Latin American Economic
System), ECLAC (United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean).
• The Group of 3 (G3):
Membership in G3174: Mexico (also member of NAFTA – link to USA and Canada), Venezuela and
Columbia. G3 was created in 1993. The members of G3 signed an agreement concerning the
cooperation with the CARICOM. G3 signed agreement on the fight against drugs trafficking and
174
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G3_Free_Trade_Agreement
235
protection of the environment with Suriname. The Group G3 works on the principle of Free Trade
Agreement among Columbia, Mexico and Venezuela. The G3 covers investment, services,
government expenditures, regulation for the fight against corruption, protection of intelectual properte
rights. In 2006 Venezuela announced intention to leave the G3 as well as the Andean Community.
Mexico suggested to find a replacement for Venezuela and recommended Panama, Ecuador or Peru.
• Rio Group
This group is a forum for political consultations of the LA coutries. It was created in 1986 (6
countries). Currently it has 23 members. Members are LA countries and also Jamaica, Dominican
Republic, Belize, Guyana, Haiti, Cuba (year 2008). It doesn´t have any permanent secretariat nor the
seat. The leadreship of the Rio Group is only temporal and rotatory. The Rio Group was the only
intrument for the political negotiations on high level between the EU and LAC till 1999 when was
initiated the cooperation on the level of Summits.
The CARICOM has an observer status in the Rio Group. The EU and Rio Group meet on the
ministerial level every 2 years. Timing of the meeting is scheduled in order not to interfere with the
Regional EU-LAC Summits (last happened in Madrid, May 2010). In 2009 the Rio Group Summit
took place in Prague (14.5.2009).
2.3. Central American Initiatives:
• Agreement DR – CAFTA:
The Free Trade Agreement among the USA, Central American states and the Dominican Republic.
(Dominican Republic – Central America Free Trade Agreement). Originally this agreement was
formed as an agreement between USA and Central America (Costa Rica, Salvador, Guatemala,
Honduras, Nicaragua). In the Year 2004 the Dominican Republic entered the negotiations. In the
USA the agreement was signed by G. W. Bush on 2.8.2005. In most of the signatory countries the DRCAFTA agreement entered into force at the beginning of the 2006. Countries Dominican Republic
(1.3.2007), Costa Rica (1.1.2009), El Salvador (1.3.2006), Guatemala (1.7.2006), Nicaragua
(1.1.2006), Honduras (1.1.2006) also ratified that agreement. The goal of the DR-CAFTA is to create a
Free Trade Zone like NAFTA did. The DR-CAFTA is considered as a pillar for a future FTAA.
Countries of the DR-CAFTA represent form the US point of view second largest market in the LA
region The every year turnover is about 32 billions USD.
(Canada currently negotiates regarding such an agreement with Central American countries. Canada – Central American
Free Trade Agreement.)
• CACM:
The Central American Common Market is a trade organization. Was founded in 1960 with the
agreement among Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador. The Secretariat was initiated on
1961 for the purposes of the Central American economic integration (Costa Rica entered in 1963).
Panama has in CACM the observer status. The war between El Salvador and the Honduras (1969)
caused that the CACM was stopped. It was renewed in the last decade of the twentieth century.
Nowadays its importance is relative due to the fact that exists DR-CAFTA. The CACM contributed to
the creation of the Central American Integration System.
3. The Influcence of third countries in the Caribbean and Central America: Author analyse the influence of some countries in the first decade of the new millenium in the region
of the Caribbean and Central America. It is briefly analyzed: USA, Canada, China, Japan, Venezuela
and EU member states. Changes in the region is necessary to consider objectively and bear in mind
local conditions and also the fact that the developing countries of the region of Central and Latin
America have a different level of natural development that do have European countries. That doesn´t
lower the value of the description concerning that region. The region of the Caribbean and Central
America is necessary to understand in wider circumstances (Hugo Chávez, Raúl Castro, the Honduras
crisis (2009) and its influence on the region, ALBA, DR-CAFTA and the Association Agreement EUCentral America).
236
3.1. THE INFLUENCE OF THE USA:
USA reinforces its influence through CBI (Caribbean Basin Initiative), that makes it possible the
preferential access for some goods to the US market.
The influence of the USA in the LAC and CAC is overwhelming and seen everywhere. USA are
rooted in the region historically and was arranged in the western hemisphere by the
Monroe doctrine. LAC and CAC is the zone of interest of the USA. There is also strategically very
important Canal of Panama, many islands where USA had or have militar bases, and also the
American dependend territories (US Virgin Islands, Portorico). The Central American countries have
an increasing level of interest regarding the supply of American goods and services and also as
producers of goods. In that regard is very important the existence of the DR-CAFTA agreement. The
US economic presence in the Caribbean is based and focused on the CBI (Caribbean Basin Initiative).
For USA the most interesting are the islands of CARICOM. The connection and linkage is based also
on the geographic proximity to the USA. Other important factor is same language (most of the
CARICOM countries use English) what makes those countries very attractive and natural partner for
the US, the development of business activities and mutual trade. The most important US trade partners
in the Caribbean: Trinidad and Tobago (import of liquified gas to US) and Barbados, Jamajka or Haiti.
From the Central American most important is Mexico, mainly due to the NAFTA agreement.
Agreements DR- CAFTA, NAFTA, Free Trade Agreement with Columbia, Panama (Signed 28.6.2007
-not yet in force) make possible the duty-free import of US goods to those countries. That makes the
US goods cheaper and is a very competitive artikle for other products, goods from the rest of the
world, including Czech Republic.
The main US instruments in the region that have increase the US influence: DR-CAFTA, CBI, Trade
Act (r. 2002), CBTPA, CBERA.
The presence of such an US treaties has also educational importance and serve as a protection of US
market. If the beneficiary countries of the CBI, CBERA, CBTPA become a communist country or
nationalizes the US property, or don´t protect the intellectual property rights, the US president can
exlude that country from the US initiatives.
Initiatives of USA in the CAC175 region:
• CAFTA-DR - see before
• CBI:
Caribbean Basin Initiative is a trade preferential US programme for Central America and the
Caribbean. The CBI made possible to Caribbean countries and some of the dependent territories to
diversify their economies and exports and thus had contributed to their economic development. USA
imported from that countries goods for 19,6 billions of USD (2008). The CBI helps also to the US
exporters. In 2008 USA exported to that region goods for 25,1 billions USD what represents 14.
position of US exports (it is a Better trade export position than with US have Australia, Switzerland,
Hong-Kong). CBI is main factor of the economic cooperation of USA with Central America and the
Caribbean. It was created by the a CBERA Act (1983) and amended by CBTPA Act (2000). CBI
offers to 18 coutries the duty-free export to US. The CBI beneficiaries: From 1. January 1984: Antigua
and Barbuda, Barbados, Belize, British Viržin Islands, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, El
Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Panama,
Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago. Other
beneficiaries: Bahamas (14.3.1985), Aruba (11.4.1986), Guyana (24.11.1988), Nikaragua
(13.11.1990). Future possible countries for the CBI initiative: Anguilla, Caiman islands, Suriname,
Turks and Caicos Islands.
• Trade Act (2002):
The CBI initiative was amended in 2002 by Trade act which increased limits for apparel and T Shirts
from the Caribbean.
175
Central American and Caribbean
237
• CBTPA:
Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act improves the protection of the internationally recognized rights
of the workforce, intellectual properte rights, WTO, FTAA negotiations (the project was stopped). Tha
Act CBTPA (2000) reinforces the CBI. CBTPA defines the importance of the apparel in the exports to
USA, allows duty free import (without limit, quota free) for the apparel from CBI countries made of
the American wool, apparel from the regional factories. The tariffs under CBTPA are similar to those
that have got to fulfill Mexican goods to US and Canada under NAFTA. Those are mainly: shoes,
petrol products, suitcases, leather. Members CBTPA (1.10.2000-30.9.2010): Barbados, Belize,
Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Panama, Saint Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago.
• CBERA:
Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act allows the president of the USA to arrange unilateral duty
free import for some goods under CBI from CBI countries. Members CBERA (2000)-Total 18
countries: Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamsa, Barbados, Belize, British Virgin Islands, Dominica,
Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Panama, Saint Kitts and Nevis,
Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago. The product must fulfill the
following criteria in order to get the advantages:
Be imported from a CBI country directly into the USA, must be a whole product of the CBI teritorry or
must be significantly transformed into a new product, must contain min. 35% of local content at lest of
one CBI country.
Trade of USA with CBI countries:
In total 6 countries of the region left the CBERA. The main cause for this act was the fact, that those
countries got the membership in DR-CAFTA. Since the 6 countries left CBERA the US Trade with
CBI decreased by 25% (2007). That change in CBERA membership cause a change in a comodity
structure of trade. Apparel and textile represent a main part of trade with DR-CAFTA, while petrol
and gas became a main part outside DR-CAFTA (it menas from CBERA countries where 60% imports
from Trinidad and Tobago ).
All those US regional initiatives CBI, CBERA, CBTPA, DR- CAFTA contribute to the internal
growth of economies, to the trade liberalization, support innovation, science, research. It is not only a
direct impact of the free trade agreements, the goods move without barriers, etc. It is also due to the
fact that the nations willing to become a part of such an institution, organization must change,
accomodate, adjust their own national laws and legislature in the field of international law, intellectual
property rights, money transfer , the fight against drugs trafficking and implement the rights against
corruption (IACAC: The Inter-American Convention Against Corruption).
3.2. The influence of Canada:
Canada176, like USA, takes advantage of English as comparative advantage for its presence on market
sof CARICOM countries, mainly on Jamaica. Canadian investment is important also in Cuba.
• CARIBCAN:
Caribbean-Canada Trade Agreement was initiated in the year 1986 by a Canadian Parliament. The
main purpose of the CARIBCAN is the promotion of trade, investment, mutual cooperation in the field
of industry through duty-free access of Caribbean goods to Canadian market. Member countries:
Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Bermuda, Barbados, Belize, British Virgin Islands, Caiman
islands, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint
Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands. The following artickles
doens´t have a duty-free access apparel, shoes, luggage, leather accesories, lubricants, methanol. The
products must have a certificate of origin (produced in Caribbean – The Commonwealth area or in
176
Consultation with Jan Rada - Consulting firm LatGroup. WWW: <www.latgroup.org>
238
Canada). The certificate of origin is issued if the goods contain at least 60% of Caribbean or Canadian
inputs.
• Free Trade Agreement Canada-CARICOM- negotiations177:
The CARICOM countries are Canadian traditional trading and invest partner. The mutual cooperation
are historical and started a long time before CARICOM. The Free Trade Canada-CARICOM
negotiations happended in two rounds: a/ First round: 11. November 2009; Second 2.round: 29.-31.
March 2010.
The trade relationship is based on documents: a/ 1979: CARICOM-Canada – Agreement on the
cooperation in trade and economic area (and its protocols); b/1998: CARICOM-Canada - The Rum
Protocol; c/ CARIBCAN: non – reciprocal agreement, unilateral and preferential. Duty-free access for
selected goods to 2011. Valid from 1986.
d/ Bilateral investment agreements, mainly: Canada –
Barbados, Canada-Trinidad and Tobago.
Canada invests in the CARICOM. In the 2006 the FDI reached 53 billions USD. CARICOM countries
invest in Canada, mainly Bahamas (136 milions USD) or Barbados (471 milions USD) 2008.Canada
signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with: Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados
and with OECS. This MoU allows the CARICOM farmers to work in Canada in the field of
agriculture.
• Canada – Central America:
Canada currently negotiates regarding the agreement as DR-CAFTA. It will be the Canada- Centrál
American Free Trade Agreement.
• CIDA178:
The Canadian International Development Agency is focused also on the Caribbean, where developes
the “Caribbean Program”. Members of CIDA: Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica,
Grenada, Jamaica, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
Trinidad and Tobago) and 3 continental countries (Belize, Guyana and Suriname). The CIDA has a
separate bilateral programmes – Aid for Haiti. Most of those coutries are highly indebted. (up to 85%
GDP). The activities of CIDA in the Caribbean: ECCB (Eastern Caribbean Central Bank) where
Canada supported the Counsil; CCDERA179 (Canada-Caribbean Disaster Risk Management Program);
PCPCS (Partnership for CARICOM Private Sector Development); JUST180 (Justice Undertakings for
Social Transformation) – Canada supports the justice systém on Jamaica. Main partner sof CIDA:
Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada; CUSO-VSO181; Canadian Urban Institute;
Canadian Institute of Planners; Multilateral: WB; IMF; CARICOM; CDB (Caribbean Development
Bank); ECCB (Eastern Caribbean Central Bank); OECS; UNDP; UNICEF.
Under the CIDA exists CPEC (Caribbean Programme for Economic Competitivness) with the seat
on Saitn Lucia. CIDA supports also CARTAC, the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre. It
has a seat on Barbados. I tis operating from November 2001.
3.3. Influence of Asia – Japan and China:
Japan
Japanese investment in the LAC region are successful due to the fact that they offer longterm credits,
investment projects supply with immediate entry. It is very important because most of the countries in
the CAC region are not capable to invent, create a new product, goods, to manage the infrastructure
177
178
Consulted with: Rada, J.: Consulting firm LatGroup; www.latgroup.org.
http://www.acdi-cida.gc.ca/home
http://www.cdema.org/
180
http://pm.gc.ca/eng/media.asp?id=2536
181
http://www.cuso-vso.org/about-cuso-vso/
179
239
construction and effectuate big investment project from A to Z. Japanese economy was negative
affected by an earthquake (March 2011).
China
China economy expands to the whole world and gradually reinforces its world influence and ensures
sales of its cheaply produced goods. Chinese are presented in all developing countries (Africa, Latin
America), but also in USA or Canada. China is strategic partner of Chávez Venezuela. China is very
activ in the Caribbean, where competes for markets with Taiwan. Here play important role the regional
and international organizations. The appropriate form of competition seems to be the investment in the
infrastructure, building airports, remodeling seaports, building refineries, sport stadiums, etc.
3.4. Influence of Venezuela:
There exists a strong correlation between the model of public administration (socialistic model of
governance versus market economy) and the real position, state of the economy of a country. As an
example can serve The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (further Venezuela). It is a model example
of the fact how setting of mode of economy system (in this case implementing of so called Socialism
of the 21. century) designates the real economic level of the country. In spite of the extreme,
immesurable quantity of natural resources, in Venezuela the cost of living, price of goods and services
rise unnaturally, inflation rate in the period of past 5 years is the highest182 in the LA region (more than
30%).
In this part author describes the issue of the regional influence of the Venezuelan president Hugo
Chávez and the implementation of his Socialism of the 21. century and his initiatives that have an
influence on the Caribbean (Petrocaribe, ALBA).
On the one hand it must be to be objective, thus try to desribe the situation in Venezuela as it as. The
world media the real state, positions in Venezuela don´t approximates, approaches well, without
prejudice.Democratically elected president HCh (1998) implements in the country so called Socialism
of the 21. century, whereof he affirms that it is not a socialism that existed in the countries of former
USSR (Union of Soviet Socialistic Republics), nor the Cuban Socialism. The Socialism of the 21.
century according to Hugo Chávez words is a new socialism, that has endeavour (effort) to ensure
more equitable divission of resources and wealth in the society.
Hugo Chávez reinforces South-South relationship and cooperation, also with Iran, China, Russia,
Belorussia, Ukraine. HCh pretends, makes an effort to obtain a regional hegemony of LA continent
and in cooperation with Russia and Belorussia he tries to create a block of countries according, after
the former Block under the former USSR, so called Council of Mutual Economic Aid (in Czech RVHP). In exchange for oil supplies, Venezuela obtains from those countries transfer of technology,
forms with their companies Joint Ventures. It should be stressed that these technologies are mostly of
older generation, lower quality products, but that have preferential, more favourable prices.
It must be noted that thanks to the Government of HCh the inhabitants of the lowest classes
have better living condition, standards than before the HCh first presidential period. Their purchase
power in the last 9 years grew 60%. It is also very interesting that the majority of the growth in
Venezuela has a non-oil origin183. The private sector (despite all the administrative hurdles) grew more
than the public sector.Thanks to the economic growth (2003-2009) the powerty index fell by an half
(54% households – 2003; 26% households - 2008). Extreme Powerty Index fell even more - by 72%.
• ALBA
To weaken the position of USA in the region, the Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez created together
with Cuba the ALBA (The Bolívarian Alternative for America), that was initiated as oposite to
182
183
Consulted with: Sanchez,E.: Founder of University IESA: <http://www.iesa.edu.ve/>
Consulted with: Rada, J.: Consulting firm LatGroup. Dostupné na WWW: <www.latgroup.org>
240
American proposal of the FTAA (Free Trade Area of the Americas). ALBA is established on
principles of political, social and economic integration among several LAC countries. The first
impulse to create the ALBA arose between Venezuela and Cuba (14.12.2004), when was concluded
the agreement on the cooperation in the field of echange of cuban doctors and students in exchange for
venezuelan oil. Venezuela daily delivers to Cuba approx. 100 000 barrels of oil. Cuba reciprocally
sent to venezuelan poorest regions and cities more than 20000 doctors and teachers. ALBA members:
Venezuela, Cuba, Dominica (1/2008), Ecuador (6/2009), Nicaragua (1/2007; also member of Central
American Free trtaje Agreement - CAFTA), Bolívia (4/2006), Antigua and Barbuda (1/2009), Saint
Vincent and the Grenadines (1/2009). The ALBA created the Bank of ALBA, members are:
Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolívia.
• Petrocaribe:
HCh iniciated so called Petrocaribe. It makes possible for members states to obtain venezuelan oil on
preferential prices and loans under „Oil Diplomacy“ in the caribbean states.
Petrocaribe members: Cuba, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominican republic, Bahamas, Belize, Dominica,
Grenada, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Suriname, Saint Lucia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and
the Grenadines, Haiti. Members are not Barbados nor Trinidad and Tobago.
4. Conclusion:
Czech Entrepreneurs should try to analyse new possibilities deriving from the new Bilateral
Agreements (EPA184) between the EU and the ACP countries and the EU and the Central American
Nations. They should also consider the fact that many of the European Countries do have the
membership (observer status) in regional organizations and also have bilateral Trade Chambers.
Author briefly analyses a variety of regional organizations and institutions. It is intended to search for
possible links, connection among the states, organizations, regions, continents and to see whether there
are any links, possibilities to take an advantage of a membership, observer or associated status in an
organization for European Countries and thus for the Czech Republic. Author asks himself why some
European countries like Finland, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom have membership
or observer status in Association of Caribbean States and other Caribbean institutions (Banks)? Why
and how did they reach that linkage. Concerning this main axis of thinking it is important to bear in
mind the possibilities that offers such a territory: cheaper transport costs for the goods and services, tax
and customs issues. See and search for the possibility to create a regional stock for goods to be
reexported through the regional organizations, initiatives to CARICOM, DR-CAFTA, USA (CBI),
CANADA (CARIBCAN).
A very interesting idea for a future analysis is the existence of European Area in the Caribbean. In that
regard author considers that the European territory in the Carribean could be used as a base for the
reexport of European (Czech) goods and services to the whole region.
184
Consulted with: PhDr. Štěpán Vojnár, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Czech Republic
241
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[4] Boxill, I < http://www.mona.uwi.edu/ >.
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ISBN 80-7179-804-5
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pro české podniky za uplynulé tři roky, 1. 12. 2010, Praha
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Development Studies and Human Rights, ISBN 82-8062-089-3. <www.cmi.no/publications>.
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3. přepracované vydání;
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Basin Economic Recovery Act, december 31, 2009, Office of the USA Trade Representative
Office of the Americas
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procesu, Diplomová práce, VŠE Praha
INTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTION AS COMMUNICATION TOOL
WHAT BUILDS EXPERIENCE AND VALUE PERCEPTION
IN LUXURY RETAIL SETTING? 185
Ing. Marija TISOVSKI
Ph.D. student from the Department of International Trade
Economics University Prague
Faculty of International Relations
[email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
Focus: Certain luxury houses year after year still manage to surprise consumers, attain
awareness and increase the desire. How do they manage to sell the dream constantly? How does the
presence of desire alter the way people view a product? Does it happen by chance? Highly unlikely.
The platform of which the work is build argues that distribution formats can be significant strategic
communication and differentiation tool for luxury brand, that the intangible determinants within the
space can potentially provide balancing link between company that is trying to manage its brand
bonding (expression) and consumers search in for the meaning (impression).
Scope: The challenge of understanding the retail in luxury context lies in the fact that not so
much research has been conducted in luxury retailing. It doesn’t come as a surprise as luxury caries
the flair of mystery and secret. This ensures that a level of diversification from mass retail approach.
In addition, this brings back to the store as source of value creation and experiences that one should
expect from a luxury brand.
Method: At this stage, the paper takes the theoretical path, tracking the publications and rich
academic research involvement to introduce the framework that gives the whole new meaning on how
to express the operations vs. how to impress the recipients. The paper uses a luxury retail setting, as
the highest in distribution hierarchy to analyze these relations.
Key words: Luxury, Retailing, Value Perception, Experience
Introduction
Selling and marketing luxury is built on a paradox of a kind. Managers want a certain level of
diffusion for their brand in order to achieve success in the marketplace; yet, if their brand is over
diffused, it loses its luxury character. (Debois, Paternault, 1995) Also, luxury products are unattainable
in their nature (Danzuger, 2005). Only the best-managed companies learn how to turn this paradox to
their advantage.
The international market opportunities lead to more flexible access of luxury brands to new
territories but with clientele characterized by different cultural, financial and aesthetic codes as well as
perceptions and definitions of luxury. The boom that the Internet has created- as the vehicle behind
vast opportunities for visibility, communications and retail - has changed the mind set of wealthy
toward luxury. The freedom of access to information about luxury brands has lead to closing up the
distance that previously existed between luxury brands and the public. A new demand for authenticity
and an increasing translation of culture and arts into consumer products (Hagtvedt, Patrick, 2008)
indicate a shift away from simple conspicuous consumption towards informed consumption.186
185
186
This publication is part of project IGA VSE Prague No. ??? “Perception of Czech Republic as Country of Origin”
Marketing for the new rich. Marketing strategies in the face of changing consumer behavior
244
Staying true to their meaning in changing environment resulted in more refined interplays with
space, service, sustainability and strategic communication practices. Marketing activities moved from
selling techniques to attracting techniques and it doesn’t come as a surprise that consumers started
spending less time chasing luxury; they are given the “luxury” to define it themselves.
Creating the relational playground to facilitate this (ex)change is crucial strategic move.
Evolution in the distribution formats goes hand in hand with necessity to create a sort of retail
expression for luxury brands to exhibit their messages amongst their current and potential target. Not
only have these served as stable, influential publicity formats through which the involvement with the
brands is enhanced, but as the awareness and loyalty drivers, too. It is about newsworthiness, story
living and respect. These forms today represent the voice of a brand that wants to be new, lived
through and respected.
By identifying key steps that lead toward connecting philosophy of luxury and retail helps in
reinforcing the academic significance of the research topic and its experiential context.
Literature Overview
Retailing is an activity of enormous economic significance. In spite of its scale and importance
retailing wasn’t initially at the forefront in embracing marketing concept (McGoldric, 1990). In the
1960s this could be justified by fragmented nature of the industry. However, industry became rapidly
more concentrated and new-found power led to more aggressive buying, high budget advertizing or
elaborated store designs.
Global expansion generally has not been an easy task for any retailer, prompting the
tremendous need to better understand the drivers of success in expanding retail operations globally
(Grewal, Levy, 2007). On the other hand, the market weapons don’t always indicate that the marketing
concept is being applied (McGoldric, 1990).
The last 30 years have seen dramatic metamorphosis within retailing industry as whole.187
Retailers have ceased to play subordinates in the marketing of consumer goods. Many retailers are
realizing that their profits and growth are determinate by little things that make big difference in
consumers’ satisfaction and loyalty. It is only relatively recent that retailers have taken enlightened
integrative way to their marketing activities striving toward using the retail to enhance brand meaning
and its impact on overall store image across market segments (Grawel, Levy, 2007).
Retailing research has always been one of the pillars of the marketing field (Grewal, Levy,
Kumar, 2009). Over viewing some of the main aspects that stimulated interest into retail concerns
imposes by itself. In addition, retail markets are getting more diverse and fragmented than ever before
presenting an overload of information and alternatives.
Early Stage – Maison Concept
What today is labeled as a process - in the time when true artisans and visionaries as Mr.
Worth, Coco Chanel, Louis Vuitton, Cartier, or Hermes were setting up their businesses - was exactly
where luxury companies wish to preserve; concept of Maison just in contemporary context.
Understanding how luxury retailing evolved a look at the development from manufacturing to retailing
imposes itself.
To set precise date of birth of luxury goods manufacturing involves tracking the developments
in society. Each era had its slice of luxury world but it wasn’t before the turn of 20th century that the
world of luxury ceased to be reserved for selected few.
In the beginning there was the Maison, the ancestor of retailer. One can argue that the concept
of Maison preceded development of retail stores. Indeed, when looking back into history and roots of
true craft one finds small artisans working in the privacy of their homes or being hired to create unique
pieces or tastes by invitation of the King or the Queen. Insofar, facts tract the roots of luxury
manufacturers back to times of old coutiers or exclusive wine and gourmet food chefs at royal courts.
187
Book: McGoldric J. Peter. Retail Marketing. McGrow Hill Book Book Company Europe. England, 1990, isbn 0-07084159-4
245
In like manner, till the turn of the 19hth century the luxury world has been isolated for the rest of the
economy. Its pleasures were reserved for small elite.
More intimate in its nature Maison represented what today we understand by workshops and
ateliers. Luxury word was indeed, a world apart.
Social and economic change that took place in the second half of the 20th century did quite a lot
in favor of luxury development and availability of luxury goods. Leading to another extreme, through
female emancipation, democratization, increase of spending power, globalization and communication
everyone got access to the world of luxury. As democracy and globalization favored transparency and
leveling out of classes (Kepferer, Bastien, 2009) the fear that luxury will lose its relevance was
increased.
Paradoxically, opposite has happened, transcendent stratification that seized to exist in society
became luxury’s driver and creator (Kapferer, Bastien, 2009)
Retail vs. wholesale
To reach the level of directly owned stores and completely controlled vertical integration
several approaches and distribution considerations had been standing in the way. Toward direct retail
store management luxury companies went through wholesale and licensing strategies first.
Historically looking, luxury distribution system used multi channel distribution – direct and
indirect. As the development of fashion and consumer tastes enhanced, over the time this moved
toward direct channels that allowed for more brand’s marketing mix control. The choice of more direct
approach to the market lead to usage of retail formats such as stores, catalogues and web to manage
sales to customers. The most spread and directly managed are mono brand stores that are segmented
by sales dimension, product line and location into: flagships, self standing stores and shops in shop.
The retail vs. wholesale model points considerable discrepancies and it depends on the power
of brand how efficient network of directly controlled mono brand stores can be. The ideal model used
by Louis Vuitton and Hermes can be justified by clear brand positioning.
For instance, Louis Vuitton has no perfumes line that would require the need to use wholesale
distribution. Hermes on the other hand uses wholesale for its perfume lines but to limited extent. In
Europe perfumes are sold through wholesale but in Asia for instance they are only available in their
own stores. This approach enables activities to be coordinated from the headquarter more effectively
and it protect the brand from becoming the victim of counter fight. In essence, once the coherence
between systems is achieved it works well to everyone’s advantage.
Opting for exclusivity is usually characteristic for brands whose identity is based on style and brand
ethics related directly to mastery of particular manufacturing skill. (Ferrari, Hermes Kelly Bag or
saddler expertise, Louis Vuitton traveling sets) The best system is the one taking into consideration the
brands specific strengths and weaknesses in determining what is the best for the brand.188
Manufacturing of goods got accelerated to meet the growing demand of well paying ‘hungry’
for luxury customers and as of 1980’s trend witnessed an increasing need to expand over the national
borders. All these pushed for the more sophisticated marketing approaches and more care for
managing luxury brand and image.
With expansion and growth the need for better distribution emerged and called for
considerations of regarding distribution as key role in luxury management. Shops became the places
where client can live the brand. This trend and ostentation called for more control in distribution
network dropping the high level of intermediaries to save the value perception and rarity components
of the luxury brands. From warehouses and licensing agreements luxury manufacturers started vertical
integration in search for full control over the retail network.
Distribution not only served as tool to manage the value chain but it started to get higher
relevance as communication tool. In recent years a fundamental issues in the fashion industry has been
the evolution of distribution and industry relationships. Distribution strategy that was once more
focusing on a single consumer today in contrast must be able to segment offering through a
differentiated value proposition for different segments on diverse markets in terms of product, retail,
communication, and service.
188
Chevalier, Mazzalovo; Luxury brand management, 2009
246
There has been transfer of power from manufacturers to distributors seen through the increase
in the market shares of the large distributors, the development of retail chains, and the development of
retailing strategies - visual merchandising, trade marketing, shopper marketing, flagship marketing.
Retail locations build brand awareness and contribute to market penetration and growth of the brand in
line with wholesale operations. (Tisovski, 2010)
Therefore, it became logical to orient toward analyzing the distribution as potential
communication not only expansion mechanism. Luxury conglomerates maintained their brand value
also by investing into uniqueness of their stores. In luxury maybe more than in other industries this is
highly relevant as the DNA of the luxury brand is build on heritage, rarity, quality, uniqueness,
exclusivity, opulence.
By means of store those features can be translated to consumer. Distribution of such brand
through sophisticated environment and exceptional experience could be considered as new way of
distribution strategy or better say upgraded distribution in luxury retail context. Further, differentiation
as significant component is therefore enhanced.
When it comes to luxury retail - location and service are ever more end-customer oriented. It is
the creativity that gets distributed/placed on “shelves” and those products cannot be isolated.
(Tisovski, 2010) Instead those products are making the main part of offer in a wider system they
operate. To manage and visualize this creativity long chain of activates precedes - in which retail space
is important feature in the very end of distribution lane. Retail format strengthens the value perception
and brand positioning in turn interplaying with consumers self.
In principal, distribution as such changed over the years toward more refined and customer
oriented channels. The strategic significance of distribution evolved around perception and importance
of atmosphere around product and focus on details. This trend has changed relationship between
players in the industry. Once it was more important to emphasize ‘manufacturer – distributor’ relations
now it is about ‘consumer – distributor.’ Through distribution consumer’s wishes are met and
physically placed. The shop has thus become an integrated marketing tool. (Tisovski, 2010)
“Distribution has a significance that it did not have in the past – it is the first mass media of the firm’s
strategy.” (Saviolo, Testa 2007)
Luxury Retail Boom - USA Case
Fallowing the global economic boom of the mid ‘80s in the US and baby boomer generation,
coupled up by explosion of Internet and its vast business opportunities set the perfect backdrop for
wealth creation (Danzinger, 2005). The support of capital led to the change of status for substantial
segment of different population. (Uche Okonkwo) Access to money wasn’t difficult and capitalistic
market structure allowed for this to happen. Together with fast spread of this trend, traveling and
convergence of cultures global consumption and attitudes created particular way of consumption
behavior and global consumption culture. It was the growth since 1984 in the time of Regans
presidency that officially mark the luxury consumption increase, although it wasn’t before the 1990s
that these issue started to be the subject of academia.
All these events set off the fruitful foundation for luxury market to gain its momentum as never
seen before. From the research perspective this didn’t pass undetected and it was by 2000 and in 2004
that the authors such as Moore and Birtwistle started to focus more of their research work toward
luxury retailers and internationalization of luxury brand. Most recent study dates back from 2010 from
the same authors investigating the aspect of internationalization and market entry for luxury retailers
through particular themed store, flagship store.
Luxury Retail Boom - European Case
European research in the area of fashion marketing and retailing is a relatively recent activity
and significant research pace in the area extends back no more than 20 years. Luxury retailers had a bit
different timing and evolution. It was a significant step to move from luxury Maisons and closed
environments to adopting multi channel approach. In the beginning luxury retailers were deeply rooted
247
in tradition and small scale production. Even today it still represents the biggest challenge of luxury
industry.
Yet, minding all the controversies, luxury houses only very recently became the subject of
higher level publications. Although a wave of acquisitions and business interest among a few biggest
luxury companies was initiated (Richmond Group, PPR, LVMH, Hermes) over the last 10 years,
luxury brands kept low profile to academia. For academics major luxury retailers were approached and
precipitated more by an analysis of international strategic development rather than the specific nature,
form and experience of particular luxury company. For instance, the fashion retailer as “brand” – per
se – is a relatively recent phenomenon (Alexander, Doherty, 2010). Today only three major groups
represent luxury in fashion clothing and accessories. They are shown in Table No. 1
Table No.1. The Conglomerates behind Major Luxury Brands
LVMH
RICHEMONT
GUCCI
Louis Vuitton
Cartier
Gucci
Christian Dior
Dunhill
Yves Saint Laurent
Fendi
Mont Blanc
Boucheron
Céline
Van Cleef & Arpels
Bottega Veneta
Loewe
Piaget
Sergio Rossi
Donna Karan
Baume & Mercier
Alexander McQueen
Kenzo
Chloé
Stella McCartney
Marc Jacobs
Vacheron Constantin Balenciaga
Bvlgari
Givenchy
Source: Company websites, selected list only
Academic Stage of International Retail Development
International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management (IJRDM) has been crucial for
recording and storing all the significant research in the field of retail industry and distribution
management. This publication of high reputation serves as the good overview base for pointing out
main development phases within retail marketing and management practices. Moreover, the journal
serves as good reference with its international character to generate high quality research studies made
by respected authors.
However, it comes as necessary to mention other publications of similar significance for the
purpose of underlining the broad international and European perspective of research attractiveness of
retail industry: Journal of Retailing, Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Retailing and Customer
Services, Journal of Retail and Leisure Property, etc. References found in these sources are of extreme
importance for the future studies within the field.
Therefore, it doesn’t come as a surprise that, introductory literature overview starts from
looking into vast retail oriented research. Logically enough, the proposed comments and conclusions
driven are focusing to cover bit of historical background narrowing it down to more recent and
contemporary practices and scholars interests in the field of luxury retailing.
The last ten years have seen an emphasis on operational aspects of international retailing such
as market selection (Gripsrud and Benito, 2005; Alexander et al., 2007; Myers and Alexander, 2007,
Swoboda et al., 2007) and market entry method (Doherty, 1999, 2000, 2009; Quinn, 1999; Gielens and
248
Dekimpe, 2001; Doherty and Alexander, 2004, 2006; Palmer and Owens, 2006; Huang and Sternquist,
2007; Park and Sternquist, 2008).189
As the importance of retail as industry evolved and research concerns moved in direction of
international marketing further publications with marketing character started to treat retailing issues
with care. Rich history of publishing raised the questions of market entry methods and
internationalization toward more refined store brand and distribution role issues.
The Development of International Retailing Toward Luxury Retail
It is worth noting of the very first initiatives in retail academic research, general and
international started with economics and geography, particularly in the UK. These two were followed
by globalization and marketing influence as result. In essence, economy, geography and marketing
were the three most important aspects to impact retail and more care from the academic side.
Moreover, with arrival of strong marketing application in the late 80s beginning of the 90s influence
toward further, more international studies in the direction of retail marketing emerged.
Therefore, the development for the last 20 years can be traced through review of two journal
groups; retail and marketing oriented. Indeed, it might be said that while retail specific journals such
as the International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management has nurtured the subject area of
international retailing, much of the most important work has increasingly appeared in marketing
specific journals, such as the International Marketing Review, the Journal of Marketing Management,
the European Journal of Marketing and the Journal of International Marketing.190
To understanding how the trend came to developing luxury retail understanding the expansion
of fashion retailers is important. It wasn’t before late 1990’s and the work of Moore and Fernie that
recognized the growing trend in fashion within the retail aspect. In like manner, these authors
recognized the need for more contemporary research as the trend driven by fast fashion manufacturers
pushed for examining the strategies. By the mid 90s fast fashion producers like Zara, Gap, H&M
revolutionized the retail industry and shift from manufacturing to retailing started being more of
interest. This called for attention initiated by Moore, Fernie (1997, 1998) that was later fallowed in
similar way by other academics. More publications, in turn emerged from raised interest and necessity
to address fashion retail phenomenon as a triggering phenomenon for other industries to fallow. This
continues to present with further research of Zara case by Lopez and Fan from 2009 as well as
exploring critical success factors in fashion internationalization (Wigley et al., 2005; Wigley and
Moore, 2007), expansion patterns (Warts and van Everdingen, 2006) and entry method (Doherty,
2000, 2007, 2009; Moore et al., 2010). The International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management
has been central to this evolution. 191 It could be therefore stated that with 1990s the first steps of
fashion retailing research emerged.
Essential research landmarks preceding luxury retailing
From the early 1990s, the literature began to consider the nature, form, structure and activities
of fashion retailers within European markets. The authors of International Retail Research article
(Alexander, Doherty, 2010) summarized the research perspectives and main steps and leaving the rich
and useful publication in helping to forecast what is yet to come.
In undertaking this review of the literature spanning two decades and demarcating the key,
over-arching themes that emerge the significance and influence of the IJRDM as a venue for fashion
retailing research becomes evident in terms of breadth and depth. In addition, it establishes a valid
framework for the consideration of fashion brand marketing and management that is simultaneously
historical and contemporary and as such facilitates an evolutionary review of fashion brands from its
early stages through to present day. In respect of this, revisiting the fashion related research that has
189
Intl research article
191
190
249
comprised the IJRDM provides an insight, both historic and contemporary, into the nature and
influences of change manifest within the sector.
Reviewing the fashion retailing related IJRDM articles in the past two decades; scholars and
academics have filtered five distinctive research themes that have dominated thinking and debate in the
area. This, over two decades long period serves as historical landmark to what we call today the basics
for fashion and luxury retail comprehending: Reflecting upon this changing fashion landscape and its
impact upon the organizations that comprise it.
1. The fashion retailer as brand: the brand as retailer
Perhaps marking the most distinctive feature of the European fashion retailing sector, the brand
has emerged as a pre-eminent strategic communications device to signal the values, positioning and
identity of the retailer and its products (Alexander, Doherty, 2010) The literature has explored these
issues in a number of ways in the journal, on a case study basis.
For exemple, Vignali et al. (1993) work on Benetton, Lea-Greenwood’s (1993) review of River
Island and Moore and Birtwistle’s (2004, 2005) evaluation of the business models of luxury fashion
retailers Burberry and Gucci. Alternatively, survey-based approaches, such as that by Moore (1995)
have sought to delineate more broadly the features of fashion retailers’ branding strategies.
What is common to all of these studies is the realization that fashion retailers, especially within
Europe, have assumed the brand creation, development and distribution roles. This direct involvement
has provided direct control over design, distribution, communications and pricing. The benefits of this
involvement have been well identified elsewhere (Fernie et al., 2003) but pre-eminent among these are
those relevant to securing brand exclusivity and the attendant advantages of customer loyalty.
2. The internationalization of fashion retailing: globalizing the fashion branding
Fashion retailers are among the most international of companies (Moore et al., 2010). The
International Journal of Fashion Distribution and Management (IJFDM) output in the past two decades
has tended to focus upon two specific stands. The first is the role of the brand in supporting foreign
market growth (Wigley et al., 2005). This is particularly evident in fashion retailer cases studies, such
as Per Una in Taiwan IJRDM 38,11/12 916 (Wigley and Chiang, 2009); children wear brand Adams in
Spain (Johnson and Allen, 1994); the expansion of Debenhams in the Middle East (Jones, 2003) and
Marks and Spencer in Hong Kong (Jackson and Sparks, 2005).
The influence of the brand to consumer perceptions of internationalizing retailers’ market entry is
also recognized in very recent studies (Alexander et al., 2010).
The second strand is concerned with retail market structures in places such as India (Halepete and
Seshadri Iyer, 2008); Spain (Gold and Woodliffe, 2000); Korea (Choi and Park, 2006), Brazil
(Alexander and de Lira e Silva, 2002) and in particular the features of the fashion retailing
environment in these markets.
3. E-fashion: style on-line
Online fashion specialists, such as Net-a-Porter and ASOS have provided compelling evidence
through its growth and profitability that fashion is not excluded from online opportunities.
Furthermore, the fashion retailers, Top Shop, All Saints and Gant have been able to combine a strong
retail and online presence to generate significant brand growth opportunities. Despite the significant
growth of online fashion selling, the literature remains under-developed in this area.
Murphy (1998) and Marciniak and Bruce (2004) provided an early analysis of the fashion e-commerce
and noted the tentative development of a web presence by European fashion brands; while Ashworth et
al. (2006) considered the means of securing online advantage within the lingerie sector.
Opportunities for retailers to use the Internet as a means of customer segmentation via
customization have recently been considered by Cho and Fiorito (2009). Yet, despite the fast pace of e-
250
fashion sales growth, fashion e-tailing has been under-represented in the literature and there is
significant opportunity for investigation from both a corporate and consumer perspective.
4. A new fashion supply chain: cheaper, better, faster
The fashion supply chain has undergone seismic change in the past generation. Previously, fashion
supply chains were characterized by its inflexibility, a dependence upon long term predictions and
commitments and a tendency to source from specific locations over long time periods. One Spanish
fashion conglomerate has done much to change old strategies. Inditex, and specifically its most
financially important fascia, Zara, has at the very least altered perceptions of how a modern fashion
supply chain should be configured. As a vertically integrated business, Zara’s control over the design
to retail cycle has provided the critical advantage of speed. Where previously the trends of high
fashion took at least six months to percolate to the high street, Zara now can service a high-street
interpretations within six weeks.
5. Fashion consumption trends: with brand, therefore I am
While there has long been an intrinsic understanding that fashion brand choices are used a
means of self-definition, self-demarcation and self-communication the intensity of competition and
increase in availability has created a more fashion aware and informed group of consumers. In respect
of this, the role of fashion style and brand choices as coded identifiers (McCracken and Roth, 1989)
has similarly intensified.
Significantly, Wigley et al. (2005) highlighted the relationship between brands and consumers
as being based upon mutuality of perceptions whereby the brand and the consumer have synergistic
characteristics. This highlights the need for brand to develop and manage what may be termed a
consistent, appropriate and desirable “back-story” to which the consumer can ally them and interpret
within the context of its own identity.
Woodruff-Burton (1998) stressed the constructed nature of the self from a post-modernist
perspective, indicating that how consumers represent themselves is through an amalgam of “selected
and edited cues, comprising amongst other dimensions fashion brands”. In respect of this, there is
therefore clear alignment between this view of the consumer and fashion brands as entities that
are created, managed and sustained through an array of tangible and intangible devices.
Bakewell and Mitchell (2003) and Bakewell et al. (2006) delineate the generational and gender
challenges for fashion companies in its studies of generation Y consumers. Not only do these studies
support the basic premise that consumers engage and utilize brands to for both private and public
reasons, but they also serve to stress the complex role of fashion brands in communicating dimensions
such as attractiveness, seriousness, status and success.
In contrast, with the new millennium and the trend of change, retailing research changed
direction. Studies expanded to recognize drivers of change coming in more independent and service
oriented formats. (Alexander and Myers (2000) and revisited most recently by Evans et al. (2008a, b).
Luxury retailers, hospitality business and fashion became subject of higher importance with a
twist. This lead to introduction of a concept or brand as strong driver of international
development (Moore et al., 2004) Indeed, one cannot talk luxury without understanding branding. Just
for comparison, to the extent to which technology was paramount (Wrigley, 2000) for the large scale
retailers, that is the concept of brand for luxury goods retail strategic orientation.
As an important component of the service sector, retailing contributes a wider understanding of
the broader internationalization process.
251
Relational Framework
“Selling luxury is a dream, there should be no nightmare issues lurking behind that dream”
Pamela Caillens,
Corporate Responsibility Director at Cartier
The consumer demand for exclusivity is increasingly being extended to the whole brand
experience. Morgan-Grenville confirms, “Brands need to give consumers the opportunity to engage
with them at a more profound level.” 192This engagement needs to occur at every touch point with the
brand, from product development to point of sale and aftercare. Also, Simonetta Morrison from
Salvatore Ferragamo points out: “You (company) actually have to show product and service attributes
that make you better than your competition.” (De Beers, 2009)
The way the consumers relate to brands has changed. Once, brand management was about
“things to people”, one way relationship through the choices made by brand managers, not consumers.
Now the focus has shifted towards the customers, empowering them to make choices and treating them
as individuals rather than an amorphous mass. Today, media and companies are listening to people
first.
For luxury consumer nothing is ever good enough. Even if it sometimes advocates that less is
more, whatever “less/more” is it has to be unique, excellent, of superior quality and scarce in quantity.
Luxury is also about creativity and therefore its needs to be ahead of time. In addition, consumers
incline towards the luxury because those products or services represent ones desires. Luxury
consumers rely on the intrinsic product mystery along with its image in the world. (Husic, Ostapenko,
2010) A consequence of this is increased interest in understanding relationships as a foundation for
brand bonding. Or, better management of emotional ties in business to consumer relation.
Relationship principles dominate marketing taught and practice (Fournier, 1998). Further,
Vickers and Renand (2003, p. 465) propose a consumer needs model for luxury goods based on three
dimensions: functional, symbolic, interactional and experiential. A general change in customer
purchase criteria entails a heavier focus on emotional as opposed to functionality and usefulness. In
like manner, the most complete overview of the motivational forces for luxury consumption was
provided by Vigneron and Johnson (1999) distinguishing five values of prestige consumer behaviors
combined with five relevant motivations, and from these identified five different categories of
“prestige” consumers.(Husic, Ostapenko, 2010) According to the authors’ categorization of luxury
products, hedonists and perfectionists are more interested in pleasure derived from the use of luxury
products and less interested in price, product characteristics, and performance. Similarly, Husic
(2009) identifies and adds the lifestyle as driving motivational factor for luxury consumption.
However, these statements should consider emotional values as well. To many people shopping
for a luxury item has an emotional dimension. If a luxury product fails to relate to consumer the
relationship ends. Therefore, the concept of company’s performance is also important. Performance is
the key word against which to judge luxury products or brands interpretation (Denzinger, 2005)
In other words, the concept of luxury brand performance is considered the best approach to tackle the
relation between how a company aesthetics management delivers or performs its luxury functions
experientially for the consumer. The performance must be freed from narrow mechanistic view to be
seen in the more expansive light of experiential marketing (Denzinger, 2005)
This work shares the same trend with the focus on the emotional and experiential relation in the
consumption of luxury goods. In this paper, especially the orientation toward experience in a retail
stores setting is emphasized. Furthermore, even though in different parts of the world consumers buy
or wish to buy luxury products for varied reasons, they still possess similar values and, regardless of
their country of origin, their basic motivational drivers are really the same; only the individual
weighing differs (Wiedmann et al., 2007).
The aim of such experiential retail strategies is to act upon store aesthetics (image, identity) to
promote customer’s individual emotional weighing and ensure attachment (Healy et al., 2007) by
prolonging the bond with a brand.
192
Luxury: Considered. De Beers Report. Implications for luxury brands and retailers, 2009
252
It continues further to find the link between luxury retailer and consumer by means of store and
identify appropriate drivers to answer how to build on experience. The main issues to be concerned
are:
- Why is the distribution in luxury context effective strategic communication tool?
a) How does it balance the relationship between the control over retail network and
experiential dimension of the store?
b) How does the presence of aesthetics alter the way consumers perceive the emotional values
around the products and relate to experience?
The current studies focus on the relationships creation through experiential and emotional way
(Schmitt 1999; Roberts) and overall soft competitiveness creation for the purpose of differentiation.
For this purpose the work will focus on large on distribution formats in luxury retail context trying to
identify determinants to attract, retain and engage luxury consumer with brand bonding.
Interaction between consumers and stores is a key component in building up of the retail companies
personality (Martineau, 1958; Aaker, 1997) and how luxury stores can internationalize through
experience determinants.
Framework
In the world of luxury the retail space must correctly evoke the codes of the brand with no
disconnect from, what is going on in advertizing or runway otherwise it risks the consumer being
disenchanted. Luxury brands tend not to attempt to weave their magic alone. It is important to curate
the avenues to provide the coherent environment for brand visitors. In a world in which most
consumers have their basic needs satisfied, value is provided by satisfying customers’ experiential
needs – their aesthetic needs. The core competence will get emphasized once the placement of the
familiar in unexpected setting occurs.
Kevin Roberts the author of “Lovemarks Effect” on how to win consumers revolution and
differentiate in the market draws upon two main drivers Love and Respect. He argues that to discard
emotions in business when it plays such a central part would be against the nature. To illustrate the
relational connection between emotional creation and experience an adapted look at the Love/Respect
axis helps in shaping the peoples quest for deeper look into their decision drivers.
This figure serves as a research framework. Once the driver get identified, each quadrant
should offer certain relationship generating - as a result - the managerial implications for creating
better luxury retail expressions.
253
Figure No. 1
Expectation
Source: “The Lovemarks Effect”, an adaptation of Love/Respect Axis
Conclusion
It is the society that defines what luxury is (Kapferer, Bastien, 2009). Another activity that
generated academic interest was the globalized consumer society of 80s. Increasing importance of
consumer impact was apparent again among retailers.
Changes in consumer society accelerated the expansion needs and retailers started servicing
those faster. Development of consumer behavior had created the field for retailers to internationalize
activities and use opportunities from their operational size and brand strength.
Luxury today is emotionally based right-brained consumer market culture (Danzinger, 2005)
Moreover, the change called for new model of approaching the luxury. The model defined by
experiences.
The way a dream/desire formula is managed sets landmarks for long-term success and value
creation for the luxury products. This is why a perception of luxury brand and its environment counts
as much as other communication tool.
The communication draws the power of challenging ideas by placing them into minds. Again,
it all comes to establishing and maintaining the relationship. Corporate resources are easily wasted
if the expressions embodied in style and themes fail to produce the desired customer impressions.
Or, when perceived expectations get ruined by disappointing reality.
The paper supports the argument for luxury retail environment emphasizing that the same
impulses that create close and respectful connections in daily family and friendship interactions and
self-actualization apply to spaces one chooses to buy luxury item and model the individual perceptions
and bonding.
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IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL REPORTING
STANDARDS ON DEVELOPMENT OF ACCOUNTING
REGULATORY SYSTEM IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC193
Marcela ŽÁROVÁ
Department of Financial Accounting and Auditing, Faculty of Finance and Accounting;
[email protected]
Summary
Regulation of financial accounting and reporting could be developed in number of ways. The great
diversity in the national regulatory systems is the consequence of different factors that could be
generalized but on the other hand also by individual factors specific to the particular country. Every
regulatory system contents rules which govern financial reporting. Preparers of financial statements
are influenced by and cover wide spectrum which ranges from laws which are enforced by legislature
body to recommendations of professional associations. A new phenomenon that appears in regulatory
systems over last years is the role of IFRS in continental European systems, the case of the Czech
Republic is used for demonstration of this issue.
Analysis of successive steps from accounting reform in early nineties of last century to present
status of financial reporting and accounting regulation in the Czech Republic, using an historical
overview of the legal framework of accounting development, was used in the paper.
The objective of this article is to analyse national system for the regulation of the financial
reporting of companies in the Czech Republic. The emphasis is on the process for setting rules,
especially standards. The process of standard setting, not developed under the due process, is criticised
in this article. Impact of IFRS is evident, not always positive.
Introduction
The main characteristic of the accounting regulatory system in the Czech Republic is that the
Czech Republic belongs to the codified Roman law system. Characteristic features of this accounting
regulatory system is that financial reporting is regulated by law, which is too detailed on one hand and
on the other hand most legislators are not well informed about accounting concepts and technicalities
of financial reporting. At the second, the stock exchange is less important, companies obtain majority
of their funds from banks and other financial institutions.
Naturally this regulatory system of accounting, the system where the Accounting Act is on the top
of the regulatory hierarchy, is supplemented and completed by a number of other rules (Žárová 2006),
in the case of the Czech Republic, issued by the same institution of the government that provides the
Act. Moreover, rules used to compute taxable profit were introduced directly into the accounting rules
in order to simplified consequent process of revising accounting data by financial authorities.
193
This paper was prepared as a part of research project of the Czech Science Foundation "Comparative Analysis of
the National Accounting and Tax Regulatory Systems on EU with Emphases on Cross-border mergers" (GA
registeration number P403 /10/1982).
256
The regulatory policy that has been realized over last 20 years by regulatory institutions in Europe
is called harmonization. Harmonization is the process of increasing the compatibility of accounting
practices by setting bounds to their degree of variation. On the other hand, standardization appears to
imply working towards compatibility has been achieved. However, within accounting, the words have
almost become technical terms, and one cannot rely upon the normal differences in meanings (Nobes
2010). Process increasing compatibility of accounting information seems to be a very useful process. It
is said that International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS hereafter) brings positive impact on the
quality of local accounting rules. Within each country, local regulations govern, to a greater or lesser
degree, the issue of financial statements. Such local regulations include accounting standards which
are promulgated by the regulatory bodies and/or the professional accounting bodies in the countries
concerned.194 Despite the harmonization process, there may be systematically different patterns of
accounting behavior applicable to various groups of countries (Radebaugh 2006).
The first Accounting Act195 (hereafter the Act) was approved by the Czech Parliament in 1991,
commencing the process of transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy. In
May, 2004, the Czech Republic joined the European Union (EU). Becoming a member of the EU has
been crucial to speeding up reform of the Czech accounting system. As a member, the Czech Republic
is committed to requiring its listed companies to comply with international financial reporting
standards in their consolidated financial statements at least.
This article focuses on the impact of IFRS on the development of the Czech accounting regulatory
system from the early nineties of the last century to present time. The period from the first Act in 1991
to present days can be divided into three stages. Sequential steps of accounting reform can be
illustrated in the Czech Republic using an historical overview of the legal framework of accounting
development during this timeframe. But not only IFRS have impact on the accounting regulatory
system, also accounting practices were reformed to ensure that new laws were consistent with those of
the European Community (EC), so as to facilitate transition to full membership. New legislation was
therefore influenced by EC accounting practices and IFRS too since 2005.
First period covering years from 1991 to 2002
Prior to fundamental political change in 1989, accounting and financial reporting were
subordinated to the requirements of the central planning system and reflected the diminished scope of
financial management in centrally planned economy. The principal function of accounting became the
provision of factual data to assess plan fulfillment and to generate statistics for other planning-related
purposes. Accounting generally required adherence to a prescribed chart of accounts and did not
involve taking a view on the financial position of an enterprise. Therefore financial reporting,
providing a true and fair view on financial performance of enterprises to the general public, did not
exist in the former Czechoslovakia before 1989. This situation began to change after 1989 as the
change to a market economy and privatization of enterprises proceeded. The dissolution of the CzechSlovak Federation on December 31, 1992, and the successful completion of the first wave of "voucher"
privatization were the most significant political and economic events in Czechoslovakia during 1992
(Zarova 1999). A complete reform of Czechoslovak accounting was undertaken, through the
Accounting Act that came into effect on January 1, 1992.
Accounting practices were reformed in the context of the wider reforms adopted to create the
institutions of market economies. In common with other areas of institutional reforms, government
was seeking, as far as possible, to ensure that new laws were consistent with those of the European
Community (EC), so as to facilitate transition to full membership. New legislation was therefore
194
International Financial Reporting Standards: Preface to Statements of International Accounting Standards; part
Accounting Standards (art.8), 2009 International Accounting Standards Committee Foundation (IASCF).
195
Accounting Act No 563/1991 Coll. as amended by Act No 495/2005 Col.
257
influenced by EC accounting practices, particularly the Fourth and Seventh Directives on Company
Law (Moizer et all 1999). The accounting law was a curious amalgam reflecting the variety of
international influences plus residual practices from the previous regime instance (Seal et all 1997).
Corporate taxation had an effect on company financial reporting and rules relating to financial
statements, but accounting income differed from taxable income.
While the Accounting Act that set out the general principles to be applied remained unchanged
since July 1, 1994, the Chart of Accounts and the detailed guidance notes on the Accounting
Procedures for Business were subject to many minor amendments that went into effect at various times
from 1994 to 2002. The EC adopted a communication in June 2000, which proposed that all listed
companies prepare their consolidated financial statements in accordance with IASC standards by 2005
at the latest. Adoption of the 2002 EU Regulation on the application of IFRS also had fundamental
effects on further development of accounting in the Czech Republic (Žárová 2008).
The Czech National Accounting Council, an independent national accounting body, was
established by the initiative of Czech accountants, the Chamber of Auditors, academics from the
University of Economics in Prague, and the Chamber of Tax Advisors in 2001.
The main characteristic of this period is accounting regulation as regulation without hierarchy, a
“legal level,” or one-level accounting regulation. From a legal point of view, accounting regulation
consisted of the Act only. The Ministry of Finance issued detailed regulatory guidance for accounting
which consisted of a chart of accounts and accounting procedures. Even though Regulatory guidance
for accounting was not part of the Act, it became obligatory as it was strictly required by tax
authorities in the Czech Republic. The situation is described in Table 1.
Table 1: One-level accounting regulation system
One-level accounting regulation
Rule
Rule-making body
Accounting Act
•
Regulatory guidance for accounting
Ministry of Finance

Chart of Accounts
Ministry of Finance

Accounting Procedures
Ministry of Finance

Financial Statements, Notes to Accounts
Ministry of Finance
Source: Source: Prepared by author
Accounting Act
The Act covered all accounting entities, including general business enterprises, banks, insurance
companies, public (budgetary) entities, non-profit organizations, municipalities, national property
funds, and even small entities using cash based accounting. The Act was divided into seven parts. Parts
one and two, General provisions and Accounting systems respectively, specified two forms of
accounting: cash–based accounting, used by sole traders and various non-profit organizations, and
accrual accounting, used by all other entities, including any sole trader who is registered in the
Commercial Register. Part three specified the financial statements to be prepared. For most business
entities, these were the balance sheet, income statement, and explanatory notes. The format of the
balance sheet and income statement, as well as the content of the notes, which include a cash flow
statement, were described in detail in regulatory guidance for accounting. Part four set out the
valuation methods for all assets and liabilities in the accounting records and financial statements. Part
five of the Act concerned inventory taking of assets and liabilities. Part six of the Act concerned
258
accounting documents and their maintenance. Common, temporary and closing provisions were stated
in part seven.
The last amendment of the Act during this period before 2003, effective as of January 1, 2002,
brought important but not fundamental changes in the regulatory framework. Those were:
1. The accounting period for all entities was changed from a mandatory calendar year to any twelve
successive months.
2. A definition of true and fair view was included.
3. The voluntary compliance with IFRS for consolidated financial statements only was allowed.
4. Fair value for financial instruments and their derivatives was introduced.
Amended Act on Accounting, effective as of January 1, 2002, brought new view on IFRS. The Act
was amended by a new article in the section 19 called “Balance sheet day” except for above mentioned
points. This article stated:” In addition to financial statements prepared in compliance with this Act,
accounting units may also provide accounting information those are prepared in compliance with IFRS
or other internationally recognized accounting principles.” Either the Act on Accounting or
Regulatory guidance for accounting or any other Accounting procedures did not provide any specific
guidance on the question of using IFRS. Content of this article could be misleading. Detailed analysis
of this article brings you mostly to conclusion that article about allowance to use IFRS is connected
only with preparation of financial statements in compliance with IFRS or other internationally
recognized accounting principles.
Regulatory guidance for accounting Detailed obligatory guidance for accounting was issued by the Ministry of Finance. Although these
were not part of the Act, they were strictly required for taxation, so essentially they were followed for
all purposes. This regulatory guidance consisted of: Chart of accounts, Accounting procedures and
Financial Statements with Notes to Accounts
a) Chart of accounts
There were separate charts of accounts for different types of entities, e.g. for business enterprises,
banks, insurance companies, public (budgetary) entities, non-profit organizations, municipalities, and
national property funds. The Chart of Accounts was organized in a rigid set of control accounts as for
the content and numbering.
The main aims of the Chart of Accounts were:

to standardize the organization of the individual enterprise accounting system, at the level
of major categories of financial transactions and their effects on financial position, and

to standardize presentation by the enterprise of its profit or loss and financial position.
b) Accounting procedures
This second part of the regulatory guidance consisted of detailed double-entry bookkeeping rules
and detailed instruction on using the chart of accounts.
c) Financial statements and explanatory notes
This third part of regulatory guidance set out the fundamental rules for:
-
Conditions for preparation and presentation of financial statements, data to be published
from financial statements.
-
Forms and explanations for the preparation of balance sheet and income statement.
-
The contents of the notes to the financial statements.
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Second period covering the year 2003
The structure of accounting regulation for the year 2003 was temporary, as regulatory guidance for
accounting described above had to be replaced by National Accounting Standards by the end of 2003.
The main reasons for this fundamental change of accounting regulation were preparation for
membership in the EU. In compliance with the EU acquis and the influence of the National
Accounting Council, accounting reform started to be realized. The result was another sequent step in
rebuilding the regulatory system. Decrees issued by the Ministry of Finance became part of the
regulatory system196.
The structure of accounting regulation for the year 2003 differed from previous one. Two levels of
accounting regulation system are illustrated in the Table 2.
Table 2: Two-level accounting regulation system
Two-level accounting regulation
Rule
Rule-making body
1. Accounting Act
Ministry of Finance
2. Decrees
Ministry of Finance
•
Regulatory guidance for accounting
Ministry of Finance
•
Accounting Procedures
Ministry of Finance
Source: Prepared by author
Accounting Act The Accounting Act as amended, effective as of January1, 2003 differed from the prior amended
Act in few requirements. There was no change in using IFRS under the amended Act.
Decrees Seven new accounting decrees covering different sectors of the economy were issued (general
business entities, banks, insurance companies etc). The substance of these decrees was expressly stated
by the Act and involved charts of accounts and the layout of the financial statements. As the other
Decrees covered accounting methods only, there was a need for leaving the regulatory guidance for
accounting in effect until the end of 2003. Regulatory guidance for accounting procedures gave
detailed bookkeeping rules. This arrangement existed until the end of 2003.
Layouts of the balance sheet and income statement became part of the decrees from 2003. An
option for accounting entities was provided as to the layout of the income statement. Entities could
determine prepare income statements with classification by the nature of expenses or the function of
expenses. There were still no options for balance sheet layout. On the other hand, important changes
were implemented to the chart of accounts, which became mandatory, but have been more flexible
since 2003.
Regulatory guidance for accounting Regulatory guidance for accounting was used during the year 2003 for the purpose of bookkeeping
rules and other provisions not included either in the Act or Decrees. The contents of the notes to the
financial statements and data to be published from financial statements were regulated temporarily by
regulatory guidance for accounting until the end of 2003.
196
Decree on Accounting for Business No 500/2002 Col. as amended by Decree No. 469/2008 Col.
260
Third stage covering years from 2004 to present
Changes to the regulatory framework were completed as of January 1, 2004. Regulatory
framework was enlarged into three separate levels. Regulatory guidance for accounting was replaced
by a new phenomenon in Czech accounting, National Accounting Standards. National Accounting
Standards are standards only by name. The idea of National Accounting Standards was introduced by
the legislator into the Act on accounting and came into force since 2004. There is a separate article in
the Act determining who is allowed to develop National Accounting Standards. The article determines
Ministry of Finance or any legal entity selected in public tender. This is historically the first moment
when Ministry of Finance admits the possibility of existence a rule-making body that differs from
Ministry of Finance.
Ministry of Finance introduced National Accounting Standards into existence. Standards should
contain a description of the accounting methods or procedures. The content of the standards may not
be inconsistent with the provisions of the Act on Accounting and other statutory provisions or
circumvent their purposes. The application of standards by accounting entities shall be regarded as
compliance with the provisions on accounting methods pursuant to the Act. The rules for the
development and issue of the standards may be specified by Ministry of Finance in implementing
statutory provisions. The issue of the standards shall be promulgated in the Financial Bulletin. Ministry
of Finance shall keep a register of the standards issued. No public tender was announced till the end of
2003 and therefore National Accounting Standards were written and issued by the Ministry of Finance
exclusively.
Introduction of the Czech Accounting standards seems to be a positive element of the Czech
accounting regulatory system. Contrary is the case as standards are not developed under the due
process. Standards are developed and issued by the Ministry of Finance only. This kind of regulatory
system has several disadvantages. Accounting standards, in majority of cases, don’t reflect economic
transactions from every-day business life and therefore development of these standards aren’t a natural
consequence of “best practice”. Standard setting process where there is an absence of correction from
public suffer from defectiveness in different aspects (lack of responsibility for rule making process,
poor understanding of accounting issues etc.). Accounting stops to play the role of natural tool for
decision making in business process. Decision makers seek information for their decision different
from accounting. The concept of “Best practise” is an immanent feature of the accounting regulatory
system, where part of regulation is built up separately from the law system. The current Czech
accounting regulatory system proceeds from the system with following characteristics:
Rigid regulatory accounting guidance; Exclusion of public participation in the process of setting accounting rules; Low impact of accounting profession Three levels of accounting regulations have been in force since beginning of 2004. The system of
three level accounting regulation is demonstrated in Table 3.
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Table 3: Three-level accounting regulation system
Three level accounting regulation
Rule
Rule-making body
1. Accounting Act
Ministry of Finance
2. Decrees
Ministry of Finance
3. National Accounting Standards
Ministry of Finance OR
Independent Professional Institute
Source: Prepared by author
Accounting Act The Act as amended, effective as of January 1, 2004, includes fundamental changes. The amended
Act incorporates implementation of IFRS as required under European Union regulation. Use of IFRS
has become obligatory for consolidated accounts of publicly traded companies since May 1, 2004.
Requirements of the 2002 Regulation on the application of IFRS has been extended to annual accounts
of publicly traded companies if their securities are admitted to trading on an EC regulated market in
the Czech Republic. There is a new provision concerning IFRS since January 1st 2011. All accounting
entities belonging to the group are allowed to prepare even their separate financial statements in
compliance with IFRS.
Cash based accounting for general business enterprises was eliminated from the Act and became
part of tax evidence under the tax law. An obligatory simplified accounting approach has been
introduced for small entities (under specified conditions).
Decrees Decrees are separate for different accounting entities. Amended decrees set out the accounting
procedures with primary emphasis on the substance of transactions. The mandatory but flexible chart
of accounts from 2003 remains in effect. Amended decrees demand higher qualifications for
accountants. The balance sheet and income statement finally consider aspects of materiality and
aggregation, and the income statement continues to allow classification by nature or function of
expenses.
National Accounting Standards National accounting standards are an integral part of the three levels of accounting regulation.
Standards are issued by the Ministry of Finance197. They are not developed under due process, where
organizations or individuals submit their suggestions. Standards are issued separately for different
accounting entities and determine admissible accounting method or procedures. National accounting
standards were issued in 2004 for the first time. Standards in effect as of January 1, 2004 were revised
several times, mostly to eliminate conflicts and redundancies.
Impact of IFRS has very special consequences in accounting regulatory system in the Czech
Republic, where the only regulatory body of accounting is the Ministry of Finance. To realised
convergence of the Czech accounting standards and IFRS to high quality solutions, there should be
strength the position, role and impact of the accounting profession in the regulatory accounting system
in order to develop national accounting standards through a formal system of due process.
197
Czech Accounting Standards 1-23 in effect as of January 1, 2011, issued by the Ministry of Finance in compliance
with article 36 of Accounting Act No 563/1991 Coll. as amended by Act No 495/2005 Col.
262
Solving above mentioned most urgent issues, the National Accounting Board could bring about
convergence of national accounting standards and IFRS to high quality. Rather pessimistic conclusion
originate from the fact that the Ministry of Finance doesn’t respect accounting practice and rarely are
able to follow the latest development of worldwide development of accounting, especially IFRS. This
seems to be the greatest obstacle and disadvantage of regulatory system developed under the influence
of the codified Roman law system. And the last but not the smallest obstacle that has to be taken into
consideration, describing the process of construction of the accounting system, is a strong influence of
taxes.
Conclusion
Impact of IFRS on the regulatory systems has different stress in different European countries. At
the same time, when Regulation (EC) No 1606/2002 on the application of international accounting
standards with requirement for the use IFRS since 2005, there is an interesting appearance in the
Czech accounting. There is a definite endeavour of the Ministry of Finance to implement some of the
best practise of accounting professionals, worldwide respected, into the Czech accounting standards.
This endeavour brings sometime very complicated situations and causes breakdown of the accounting
system. Some methods, measurements or rules, used in IFRS, are implemented into the national
accounting system partially, incompletely or even without the knowledge of the far-reaching
consequences. Ignorance of far-reaching consequences of accounting rules brings every year
companies to courts, to higher costs and to loose confidence by users of accounting information. The
poor quality of the Czech accounting standards leads, in many cases, to their breaking. Accounting
entities, especially those owned by foreign companies or those reporting to parent companies, treat
their transactions in compliance with fair regulations even if this treatment breaks Czech law for
accounting. Consequence of this practice is that rules are used differently for treatment of the same
cases. This brings complications to audit and preparers of financial statement as well. Auditors,
preparers of financial statement and users too, often doubt whether to prefer substance of the
transaction or legal consequence of the transaction.
Accounting regulatory system in the Czech Republic, similar to some other EU member countries,
illustrates situation where standards are introduced into accounting regulatory system as a separate
regulatory level. Accounting systems, where development of standards and due process is described in
the case of the Czech Republic and that is realized by the Ministry of Finance only, has several
disadvantages. Accounting standards, in majority of cases, don’t reflect economic transactions from
every day business life and therefore development of these standards aren’t a natural consequence of
“best practice”. Standard setting process where there is an absence of correction from public suffer
from defectiveness in different aspects (lack of responsibility for rule making process, poor
understanding of accounting issues etc.). Accounting stops to play the role of natural tool for decision
making in business process. Decision makers seek information for their decision different from
accounting.
The main stumbling block in this kind of regulatory systems is that some methods, measurements
or rules, used in IFRS, are implemented into the national accounting system partially, incompletely or
even without the knowledge of the far-reaching consequences. Ignorance of far-reaching consequences
of accounting rules brings every year companies to courts, to higher costs and to lose confidence by
users of accounting information. The poor quality of the Czech accounting standards leads, in many
cases, to their breaking. Accounting entities, especially those owned by foreign companies or reported
to parent companies; treat their transactions in compliance with fair regulations even if this treatment
breaks Czech law for accounting. Consequence of this practice is that rules are used differently for
treatment of the same cases. This brings complications to audit too.
Systematic research of accounting regulatory systems over last decade brings us suddenly different
view. It starts to be complicated to find regulatory system clearly and reliably determinable in
compliance with traditionally known characteristics. Over last decade, instruments of regulatory
systems of accounting are changed and institutions developing standards are changed as well as.
Instruments of regulatory systems of accounting are mostly combination of elements of private and
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public standards setting even in those regulatory systems of accounting where this tradition does not
exist.
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