Forecasting a Company´s Innovation Strategy based on Its Merger

Forecasting a Company´s Innovation Strategy
based on Its Merger & Acquisition Activities
Elena Aminova
+49(0)176 68060581 | [email protected]
What is Innovation Strategy?
„Strategic fit“: any company striving for success needs
to develop, implement and follow a strategy, with
innovation strategy being part of an overall strategy.
Ansoff (1967)
Innovation strategy exists beforehand as
text and/or plan
Company´s moves are driven by context, business
environment and current needs. Explanations and
setting company´s moves in line with other activities is
often made ad hoc and ex post.
Mintzberg (1998)
Innovation strategy cannot be developed
in a structured formalized process
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What is Ínnovation Strategy?
“a selection basis for innovation activities in the operational
innovation process, understood in terms of strategic goals,
formulated to create and hold the aspired competitive position”
Sauber (2003)
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Ínnovation Strategy is normally a big secret…
How is it possible to get insights?
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To the problem: The constitution of an organisational
path
Company may not have an articulated strategy, but judging by existing paths
provides a plausible basis for forecasting
Opportunities
Making choice:
emerging paths
Path,
„next moves“?
Technological potential of
sourced technologies.
What is the possible
synergie?
Puzzle effect:
compatibility of sourced
technologies with each
other
Forecasting of innovative
products / applications
Relation to a
Source: Sydow (2009), as supplemented by Schreyögg (2011) and Aminova
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company´s vision
/mission /philosophy
Elena Aminova | Back and Forth - Erfahrungen und Prospektiven
WHY MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS?
• Outside-in analysis of a deal based
on publicly available information
• Extra insights for market players
and competitors
• Anticipate emerging markets
Source: http://www.dailydooh.com/archives/103592
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WHY MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS?
• Ways to expand: through its in-house R&D; by building cooperations, networks
and partnerships with related companies; using open innovations; through
mergers and acquisitions
• Strategic investments (grow and develop) vs financial investments (get richer)
• M&As as a “quick” way to source new technologies and ready products
• M&A implicitly carries a potential to envisage a new product/service ; it can
therefore be treated as an „image of the future“ (Germ. Zukunftsbild) and
justifies our focus from the perspective of future studies
Information about M&As undertaken by strategic investors can be
used to forecast acquirer´s innovation agenda
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Proposed Solution
Forecasting Innovation pathways (as opposed to strategy) as a compromise solution
Robinson et al (2013). P. 270
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Expected results
1. Contribute to non-econometric forecasting methodologies
2. Outline innovation pathways of focal companies
3. Provide grounded predictions about upcoming innovations and
moves based on analysis of M&A deals
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References
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Elena Aminova | Back and Forth - Erfahrungen und Prospektiven
Thank you for your attention!
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Elena Aminova | Back and Forth - Erfahrungen und Prospektiven