Christopher Simmons - Earth System Modelling Group

Transcription

Christopher Simmons - Earth System Modelling Group
Christopher Simmons
Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
McGill University, 805 Rue Sherbrooke O., Montréal, QC H3A 2K6
Telephone: Office (514) 398-7448; Residence (514) 504-8889
Fax: (514) 398-6115
E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.esmg.mcgill.ca/Chris.htm
(Home address: 3550 Ave. Lorne, Apt. 15, Montréal, QC, H2X 2A6)
1. Education
2008-Present:
McGill University, Montréal, QC
PhD in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, comprehensive examination
passed, thesis in progress, supervised by L.A. Mysak and H.D. Matthews
Expected Graduation: August 2012. (current GPA: 4.0/4.0)
2006-2008:
McGill University, Montréal, QC
MSc in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences; Thesis (Dean’s Honour List),
supervised by L.A. Mysak, Prof. (GPA: 4.0/4.0)
2003-2006:
Western Illinois University, Macomb, IL
BSc honors in Meteorology, minors in mathematics and history (GPA:
4.0/4.0)
2. Professional Positions

Sept. 2008 – Present:
Graduate Research Assistant, Early Anthropogenic Project,
supervised by L.A. Mysak (Prof., McGill) and H.D. Matthews
(Asst. Prof., Concordia)

Sept. 2011 – Present:
Concordia University Instructor, Geog 378 (The Climate System)

Sept. 2010 – Dec. 2010: Teaching Assistant, Fall 2010, Natural Disasters (ATOC 185/EPSC
185), McGill University.

Sept. 2009 – Dec. 2009: Teaching Assistant, Fall 2009, Introduction to Atmospheric
Sciences (ATOC 181/210), McGill University.

July 2008 – Present:
Administrative Assistant for the International Association for the
Physical Sciences of the Ocean (IAPSO) Presidency and the Earth
Systems Modelling Group (McGill)

Sept. 2006 – Aug. 2008: Graduate Research Assistant, principal researcher and
coordinator of the Medieval Interiors Illumination Data Collection
Project (directing a research team of four individuals in France,
Germany, and Spain).

Dec. 2004 – May 2006:
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Sept. 2001 – May 2006: Television Weather Forecaster and Presenter for WWIR-TV
(Western Illinois), internship: weekly live, on-air forecasts.
Undergraduate Research Assistant to Jongnam Choi, Assoc.
Prof., principal researcher on the Campus Crime and Climate
Project.
3. Service and Volunteer Work

Aug. 2009 – Jan. 2011:
McGill University Principal’s (President’s) Task Force for
Diversity, Academic Excellence, and Community Engagement.
(Montréal, QC).

Oct. 2009:
Department representative to the Post-Graduate Student Society
Council (Montréal, QC).

Sept.-Nov., 2007-2008:
Founder and leader of the McGill’s graduate student forecasting
group (http://www.esmg.mcgill.ca/forecast.htm) (Montréal, QC).

Sept. 2007 – July 2009:
Biweekly volunteer at an anonymous community peer counseling
and referral service (Montréal, QC).

Sept. 1999 – Aug. 2006: Tri States Radio/Audio Information Service, weekly radio
broadcast for visually-impaired individuals (Macomb, IL)

May 1999 – Aug. 2006: Severe Storm Spotter for the National Weather Service
in the Quad Cities (Macomb, IL)
4. Other Work Experience

July 2001 – July 2006:
Experiment Field Hand, Pioneer Hi-Bred International Product
Development and Delivery Centre (Adair, IL)
5. Peer-Reviewed Publications

Simmons C, & Mysak L (2009) The transmissive properties of medieval stained glass in
European churches. Submitted to Architectural Science Review (Aug. 2009)

Simmons C, & Mysak L (2011) Stained glass and climate change: How are they connected?
Atmosphere-Ocean, Accepted and in Press, May 2011.
6. Theses and Technical Reports

Simmons, C. (2008). Fiat lux: Climatic considerations in medieval stained glass aesthetics.
MSc Thesis, McGill University. <http://www.esmg.mcgill.ca/chris'%20cathedrals/Fiat%20Lux.pdf>

Simmons, C. (2007). Let there be light: Stained glass and the late medieval climate transition.
Centre for Climate and Global Change Research, Report 2007-1. Available
<http://www.esmg.mcgill.ca/chris%27%20cathedrals/C2GCR%20Report%202007-1.pdf>.

Simmons, C. (2006). The influence of latent heat and topography on the evolution of
midlatitude tropical-like cyclones. BSc Geog. Thesis, Western Illinois University.
<http://www.esmg.mcgill.ca/bscgeogthesis.pdf>

Simmons, C. (2006). Climate Change and Medieval Sacred Architecture. BSc Honors Thesis,
Western Illinois University. <http://www.esmg.mcgill.ca/bschonorsthesis.pdf>
7. Conferences and Presentations

Simmons, C.T. ―An investigation of the Holocene’s natural carbon cycle using a model of
intermediate complexity: The role of Southern Ocean overturning‖ (oral and poster
conference and seminar presentations)
o International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics Meeting 2011 (1 Jul.) in Melbourne,
Australia
o European Geosciences Union General Meeting 2011 (4 April) in Vienna, Austria.
o International EMIC Workshop 2011 (18 Jan.) in Potsdam, Germany
o Invited Seminar Lecture (in French) at the Institut Armand-Frappier (Parlons
Sciences series) (12 Jan., 2011), Laval, QC
o American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2010 (14 Dec.) in San Francisco, CA.
o Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic 2010 Annual Meeting (1 Jun, 2010) in
Ottawa, ON.
o Invited Seminar Lecture at the Université Catholique de Louvain (11 May, 2010) in
Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
o European Geosciences Union General Meeting 2010 (7 May) in Vienna, Austria.

Simmons, C.T. ―Stained glass and climate change: How are they connected?‖ (oral and
poster conference presentations)
o International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics Meeting 2011 (2 Jul.) in Melbourne,
Australia
o European Geosciences Union General Meeting 2010 (4 May) in Vienna, Austria.
o Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society 2010 Annual Meeting (1 Jun,
2010) in Ottawa, ON.
o Canadian Space Agency Workshop (10 Feb., 2010) in Montréal, QC
o American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2009 (18 Dec.) in San Francisco, CA.

Simmons, C.T. ―Interactions of elevated supercells with the stable boundary layer: An
observational study on the possible mechanisms for tornadogenesis in the Lawrence, Kansas
Supercell of 12 March, 2006.‖ <www.esmg.mcgill.ca/supercell.pdf>
o Canadian Space Agency Workshop (10 Feb., 2010) in Montréal, QC
o MOCA-09 IAPSO-IAMAS-IACS Joint Assembly (20 Jul., 2009) in Montréal, QC.

Simmons, C.T. (2009, 18 March) Temples of glass: Developing a relative transmissivity
index for the in-situ analysis of medieval glazing. Presented at the McGill AOS student
seminar series in Montréal, QC. <www.esmg.mcgill.ca/templesofglass.pdf>

Simmons, C.T. (2008, 11 May). The Grisaille Revolution and Climate Change. Presented at
the International Congress on Medieval Studies in Kalamazoo, MI.
<http://www.esmg.mcgill.ca/chris'%20cathedrals/CIEM%20Presentation%20May%2011,%202008.pdf>

Simmons, C.T. (2008, 9 April). Let there be light: climatic considerations in medieval stained
glass aesthetics. Presented at the McGill AOS student seminar series in Montréal, QC.
 Simmons, C.T. (2006, 16 April). Hurricane Catarina and Mediterranean tropical-like
cyclones: Genesis and maintenance. Presented at Western Illinois University Research Day
in Macomb, IL.
8. Scholarships and Awards

GEC3 Scholarship Award, $2000 CAD (Institutional), March 2011

McGill International Doctoral Award (MIDAS), $4450 CAD tuition waiver/year, McGill,
Academic, 2008/09 - Present

Provost’s Graduate Fellowship, $3000 CAD, McGill, Academic, 2008/09

Differential Fee Waiver, $3444 CAD Fall tuition reduction, Academic, 2007/10
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Tomlinson Fellowship Renewal, $15000 CAD, McGill, Research, 2007/09 - 2008/09

McGill Graduate Studies Fellowship, $5000 CAD, McGill, Academic, 2007/09

McGill Graduate Studies Fellowship, $5000 CAD, McGill, Academic, 2006/10

Recruitment Excellence Fellowship, $5000 CAD, McGill, Academic, 2006/09
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Tomlinson Fellowship, $15000 CAD, McGill, Research, 2006/09 - 2007/09
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Meteorology Department Scholar, Western Illinois University, 2006/05
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Phi Kappa Phi National Fellowship Nominee, Western Illinois University, 2005/12

First Place Illinois Centennial Honors College Writing Award, $25 USD, Western Illinois
University, 2005/05

Sheila and Paul Nollen Phi Kappa Phi Scholarship, $500 USD, Western Illinois University,
2005/03

Senior Honors Scholarship, $600 USD, Western Illinois University, 2005/09 - 2006/05

Minority Achievement Textbook Scholarship, $200 USD/semester, Western Illinois
University, 2004/09 - 2006/05

Frank W. Banks Memorial Scholarship, $1000 USD/year, Western Illinois University,
2003/09 - 2005/09
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First State Bank of Western Illinois Scholarship, $700 USD, Regional Award, 2003/09

Most Outstanding Freshman Award, $300 USD, Western Illinois University, 2003/09
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UPI Margaret Schmidt Scholarship, $1000 USD, Provincial (Statewide) Award, 2003/09
9. Current Research (english description)
While the current debate on post-industrial anthropogenic climate change has captured the public imagination, climate
scientists are becoming increasingly interested in the possibility that humans have been influencing the climate since long
before fossil fuel consumption. Ruddiman and Thompson (Quaternary Science Review, 2001) and Ruddiman (Clim.
Change, 2003) postulated that humans have potentially caused a substantial warming for the past 8000 years by
introducing greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere through their agricultural activities. In particular , agricultural
burns and forest clearing provide an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentrations. In addition, human
agriculture has contributed significantly to atmospheric methane (CH 4), another potent greenhouse gas, through rice paddy
agriculture and ruminants (cattle and other livestock).
In the absence of agricultural activities, Ruddiman (2003) suggested that atmospheric CO2 and CH4 should have eventually
begun to steadily decline after the last ice age as happened following previous glacial terminations. Instead, CO 2 and CH4
increased substantially over the past 8000 years and 5000 years respectively. Furthermore, modeling studies (Ruddiman et
al., Quat. Sci. Rev., 2005; Varvus et al. Quat. Sci. Rev., 2008, Kutzbach et al., Clim. Change, 2009) using reduced
greenhouse gas concentrations showed that a substantial cooling (global annual-mean decrease of as much as 2-3ºC) might
have occurred without the post-agricultural era anomaly.
However, the relative importance of pre-industrial anthropogenic activities compared to natural mechanisms for climate
change is not known. Broecker et al. (Geochem. Geophys. Geosys., 2001) suggested an ocean chemistry explanation for
the observed divergence of GHG concentrations away from the natural decrease. Although Ruddiman (Rev. of Geophys.,
2007) has rebutted Broecker’s methodological foundation, he conceded that human activities may not be responsible for
the entire GHG increase and associated anomalous warming rise. Thus, the early anthropogenic hypothesis has provoked a
challenging and intriguing debate concerning global climate change by suggesting that greenhouse gas concentrations have
been influenced by human behaviour since the Neolithic period. Furthermore, an anthropogenic modification of the carbon
cycle may have initiated a longer-term response to the ocean system, causing an even greater release of carbon to the
atmosphere (Ruddiman 2007)
My research aims to critically evaluate the validity of Ruddiman’s arguments by assessing the human contribution to the
GHG anomalies. This is being done by incorporating broad land use changes during the past 8000 years into the UVic
Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) version 2.9. The advantages of using this particular model include its
computational efficiency and the inclusion of dynamic vegetation and a full terrestrial and ocean carbon cycle. The model
has also been used to explore land use-climate interactions in previous shorter-term climate change studies by cosupervisor Damon Matthews, one of the model’s developers. He has investigated agricultural change for the past 300
years, with particular interest in the expansion of agriculture during this time period in former European colonies.
Matthews et al. (Clim. Dyn., 2004) has shown that agricultural activities likely provided an overall carbon dioxide-related
warming of 0.15ºC, potentially consistent with Ruddiman (2003)’s hypothesis concerning agricultural alterations to the
climate.
Building on this past work, my Ph.D research will incorporate several thousand years of land use history and as well as a
methane feedback into the model (at present, the UVic ESCM does not have an interactive methane cycle). The goal of
this project is to determine, for the first time, the extent of climatological warming due to pre-industrial agricultural
activity and how the global impacts of this warming may continue to affect ongoing climate change. Furthermore, the 2.9
version of the UVic ESCM represents important processes related to ocean sediment carbon, which will allow us to
determine the relative importance of Broecker et al. (2001)’s alternative hypothesis to the observed CO2 increase.
Extensive work on the model itself began in the Spring of 2009, with the aid of supervisors Dr. Lawrence Mysak and Dr.
Damon Matthews. Simulations of the natural carbon cycle in the model without anthropogenic influences suggest that
without some external forcing (such as human land use) atmospheric CO 2 should have decreased during the past 6000
years, consistent with Ruddiman’s claim. To explore the agricultural contribution to the carbon cycle, the HYDE 3.1
database described in Klein Goldewijk et al. (2010) provides important information on estimated global land use change
during the past 10000 years, and it has already been adapted into a format that can be read by the UVic ESCM to simulate
deforestation. The model’s treatment of the soil carbon cycle and irrigation is being modified to account for the altered
carbon cycle for managed lands, and the use of maximum-possible deforestation scenarios will provide a first-order
estimate of the contribution of early agriculture to increasing atmospheric CO2. After the CO2 experiments, the inclusion
of a methane module in the UVic ESCM will provide a more complete assessment of the interactive effects of CO 2, CH4,
and human activities on the earth’s climate system.
9. Recherche Actuelle (résumé français)
Alors que les discussions au sujet des effets du changement climatique anthropique sur le climat mondial attirent
l’attention du public, les chercheurs climatiques deviennent de plus en plus intéressés quant à la possibilité que les
humains aient influencé le climat, et ce, longtemps avant l’époque de la consommation de combustibles fossiles.
Ruddiman et Thompson (2001) et Ruddiman (2003) ont postulé que les humains auraient potentiellement causé un
rechauffement considérable au cours des 8 000 dernières années par l’introduction des gaz à effet de serre dans
l’atmosphère. Cette influence anthropique serait reliée aux activités agricoles. En particulier, le brûlage des déchets
agricoles et la déforestation contribueraient à une augmentation du dioxide de carbone (CO2) atmosphérique. De
plus, l’agriculture humaine, par les activités reliées à la culture du riz et l’élevage des ruminants (bovins et autres
bestiaux, aurait contribué de façon significative à la formation de méthane atmosphérique (CH4), un autre gaz à effet
de serre puissant.
Ruddiman (2003) a suggéré que, en l’absence des activités agricoles, le CO 2 et le CH4 atmosphériques auraient
éventuellement commencé à baisser progressivement après la dernière période glaciaire, tout comme ce fut le cas à
la suite des dernières périodes glaciaires. Selon lui, les niveaux de CO 2 et de CH4 auraient notamment augmenté
pendant les 8 000 dernières années (20 ppm) et les 5 000 dernières années (140 ppb) respectivement. En outre, les
études de modélisation (Ruddiman et al., Qua. Sci. Rev., 2005; Varvus et al., Quat. Sci. Rev., 2008, Kutzbach et al.,
Clim. Change, 2009), basées sur des niveaux de gaz à effet de serre reduits, ont montré qu’un refroidissement
considérable (aussi élevé que 2-3°C à l’échelle du globe) serait survenu en l’absence des anomalies reliées à
l’agriculture post-industrielle.
Néanmoins, l’importance relative des activités humaines pré-industrielles par rapport aux autres mécanismes
naturels contribuant au changement climatique est peu connue. Broecker et al. (Geochem. Geophys. Geosys., 2001)
ont suggéré une explication basée sur la chimie océanique pour expliquer l’augmentation des concentrations de gaz
à effet de serre par rapport à ce que serait une baisse naturelle de ces mêmes concentrations. Même s’il a réfuté les
fondements méthodologiques de Broecker, Ruddiman (2007) a admis que l’augmentation de CO 2 et le
réchauffement qui y est associé pendant l’Holocène ne seraient probablement pas entièrement reliés aux activités
humaines (Ruddiman 2007). L’hypothèse anthropique, en suggérant que les concentrations de gaz à effet de serre
auraient été influencées par le comportement humain depuis l’époque néolithique, a provoqué un débat mobilisateur
et intéressant. De plus, une modification anthropique du cycle du carbone aurait peut-être amorcé une réponse à
long-terme dans le système océanique, conduisant ainsi à une augmentation plus grande du carbone dans
l’atmosphère (Ruddiman, 2007).
Ma recherche vise à évaluer d’une manière critique la validité des arguments de Ruddiman en prenant en
considération l’impact qu’a eu l’activité humaine sur la présence d’anomalies dans les mesures de gaz à effet de
serre, et ce, dans le contexte du cycle naturel du carbone. La présente étude vise à inclure des scénarios reliés à
l’aménagement du territoire au cours des 8 000 dernières années à l’intérieur du modèle climatique UVic du système
terrestre à complexité intermédiaire (Uvic ESCM version 2.9). Parmi les avantages de l’utilisation de ce modèle
particulier, soulignons son efficacité de calcul et l’incorporation de la végétation dynamique et d’un cycle complet
du carbone terrestre et oceanique. Le modèle UVic a également été utilisé afin d’explorer les interactions entre
l’aménagement du territoire et le climat dans les études à court-terme réalisées par le Dr. Damon Matthews, un des
chercheurs ayant collaboré à ce modèle. Le Dr. Matthews a étudié les changements agricoles des 300 dernières
années en se concentrant sur l’augmentation de la production agricole dans les anciennes colonies européennes.
Matthews et al. (Clim. Dyn., 2004) ont montré que les activités agricoles ont potentiellement contribué à un
réchauffement de 0.15ºC relié au relâchement du carbone dans l’atmosphère, et ce, en allant dans le même sens que
l’hypothèse de Ruddiman (2003) concernant les effets de l’agriculture sur le climat.
En élaborant sur cet ouvrage précédent, ma recherche doctorale incorporera plusieurs données historiques relatives à
des milliers d’années d’aménagement et d’utilisation du territoire (Klein Goldewijk et al. 2010; Stocker et al. 2010).
Cette recherche inclura également du feedback relativement au méthane interactif, une donnée qui n’est pas
présentement inclue dans le modèle UVic ESCM. Le but recherché consiste à examiner cet aspect du cycle du
carbone et ses effets prononcés sur la température. Le but de cette recherche est aussi de déterminer, pour la
première fois, dans quelle mesure le réchauffement climatique est du à l’activité agricole durant l’Holocene.
L’objectif est également d’évaluer comment les effets globaux de ce réchauffement continuent d’influencer le
changement climatique actuel. En outre, la version 2.9 du modèle UVic ESCM illustre des processus importants
reliés aux sédiments de carbone océanique, ce qui nous permettra de déterminer l’importance relative de l’hypothèse
alternative fournie par Broecker et al. (2001) dans l’augmentation du CO 2. Une recherche intensive portant sur le
modèle a commencé au printemps 2009, et ce, avec l’aide et la supervision du Dr. Lawrence Myset et du Dr. Damon
Matthews. Mes simulations portant sur l’inclusion du cycle naturel du carbone dans le modèle qui ne prend pas en
compte les effets anthropiques suggèrent que, sans la présence de quelques forces externes (telles que
l’aménagement et la gestion du territoire), les concentrations atmosphériques de CO 2 auraient dû baisser durant les 6
000 dernières années, et ce, en accord avec l’hypothèse de Ruddiman. En plus, ces résultats indiquent que les petits
changements dans la circulation thermohaline peuvent avoir eu un grand effet mondial sur le cycle naturel du
carbone (does not appear in the English version-But I have corrected this sentence in case you want to include it in
the text). En explorant la contribution de l’activité agricole dans les concentrations de CO 2 du cycle du carbone, la
base de données Hyde 3.1, décrite par Klein Goldewijk et al. (2010), fournit des renseignements importants sur
l’aménagement global du sol au cours des 10 000 dernières années. Ces données ont déjà été adaptées dans un
format qui peut être lu par le modèle UVic ESCM afin de simuler la déforestation. Le traitement que fait le modèle
du cycle du carbone du sol et de l’irrigation est en cours de modification afin de prendre en considération le cycle
altéré du carbone pour les territoires aménagés. Ces modifications, de même que l’utilisation des scénarios de
déforestation maximum, fourniront une estimation de premier plan relativement à la contribution de l’agriculture
primitive à l’augmentation du CO2 atmosphérique. Après les expériences portant sur le CO2, l’inclusion d’un
module relatif au méthane dans le modèle UVic ESCM donnera une évaluation plus complète encore des effets
interactifs du CO2 du CH4 et des activités humaines sur le système climatique de la Terre.
10. Organizations
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American Geophysical Union (2009-Present)
Phi Kappa Phi (2004-2009)
Council of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (CAOS) Graduate Student Society (2006Present)
11. Languages

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English—Advanced Fluency (Native Tongue)
French—Intermediate Fluency
Modern Greek—Basic Communication
Italian—Basic Communication
12. Technology

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Fluency in Fortran, IDL, UNIX(bash), HTML
Close familiarity in graphical user interfaces of Microsoft, Adobe, and macintosh systems
and programs.
Some familiarity with C, Matlab, Java and Latex.