La Fed en position d`attente

Recherche
économique et
stratégies
d'investissement
Etats-Unis
28 janvier 2010
Flash
Jean-Baptiste Pethe
+33 1 42 99 23 24
[email protected]
La Fed en position d'attente
► Sans surprise, la Fed a maintenu le statu quo de sa politique monétaire
D’une part, les taux d’intérêt des Fed Funds resteront quasi-nuls pendant une longue
période (« for an extended period of time »). D’autre part, les lignes de crédit
exceptionnelles mises en place pendant la crise et les programmes d’achats d’actifs
cesseront dans les prochains mois, selon le calendrier prévu.
► Dans le communiqué accompagnant sa décision, la Fed se montre un peu
plus confiante dans la reprise économique
Selon elle, l’activité se renforce. Après la consommation, c’est l’investissement en
biens d’équipement qui donne des signes de redressement. En outre, l’amélioration
des conditions financières continue de soutenir la croissance.
► Toutefois, la Fed pense toujours que de nombreux facteurs brident la
croissance et que les perspectives d’inflation restent contenues
La détérioration du marché de travail, la rareté du crédit et la chute du patrimoine des
ménages constituent des freins puissants au rebond de l’activité. En outre, les
surcapacités demeurent substantielles et exercent encore des pressions baissières
sur les prix.
► La Fed se place donc en position d’attente, continuant une politique de taux
durablement bas
Le risque à court terme est de pénaliser le redressement de l’immobilier résidentiel.
L’arrêt des achats de MBS devrait en effet conduire à une hausse des taux
hypothécaires après le premier trimestre, auquel viendra s’ajouter la fin des crédits
d’impôt. D’un autre côté, l’ancrage des anticipations de taux sur des niveaux
durablement bas permet de modérer la hausse des rendements obligataires dans leur
ensemble. Nous pensons que la Fed va rester très attentive aux conditions de
financement de l’économie et ne remontera pas ses taux avant mi-2011. Le retrait de
« extended period of time » pourrait intervenir d’ici le milieu d’année (Thomas Hoenig,
souvent dissident par le passé, ayant déjà voté en ce sens).
www.exanebnpparibas.com/economie
Please refer to important disclosures
at the end of this report.
Tableau : Comparaison des deux derniers communiqués
Communiqué du 27 janvier 2010
Communiqué du 16 décembre 2009
Commentaires
Information received since the Federal Open
Market Committee met in December suggests
that economic activity has continued to
strengthen and that the deterioration in the
labor market is abating. Household spending is
expanding at a moderate rate but remains
constrained by a weak labor market, modest
income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight
credit. Business spending on equipment and
software appears to be picking up, but
investment in structures is still contracting and
employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls.
Firms have brought inventory stocks into better
alignment with sales. While bank lending
continues to contract, financial market conditions
remain supportive of economic growth. Although
the pace of economic recovery is likely to be
moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates
a gradual return to higher levels of resource
utilization in a context of price stability.
Information received since the Federal Open
Market Committee met in November suggests
that economic activity has continued to pick up
and that the deterioration in the labor market is
abating. The housing sector has shown some
signs of improvement over recent months.
Household spending appears to be expanding
at a moderate rate, though it remains
constrained by a weak labor market, modest
income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight
credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed
investment, though at a slower pace, and
remain reluctant to add to payrolls; they
continue to make progress in bringing inventory
stocks into better alignment with sales.
Financial market conditions have become more
supportive of economic growth. Although
economic activity is likely to remain weak for a
time, the Committee anticipates that policy
actions to stabilize financial markets and
institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and
market forces will contribute to a strengthening
of economic growth and a gradual return to
higher levels of resource utilization in a context
of price stability.
La Fed se montre plus confiante
dans la reprise économique. Elle
constate notamment la poursuite
de la croissance des dépenses
de consommation et un rebond
de l’investissement en biens
d’équipement. Chose étonnante,
elle ne mentionne plus l’état de
l’immobilier résidentiel.
With substantial resource slack continuing to
restrain cost pressures and with longer-term
inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to
be subdued for some time.
With substantial resource slack likely to
continue to dampen cost pressures and with
longer-term inflation expectations stable, the
Committee expects that inflation will remain
subdued for some time.
La Fed attend toujours une
faible inflation à moyen terme.
The Committee will maintain the target range for
the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and
continues to anticipate that economic conditions,
including low rates of resource utilization,
subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation
expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally
low levels of the federal funds rate for an
extended period. To provide support to mortgage
lending and housing markets and to improve
overall conditions in private credit markets, the
Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing
$1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed
securities and about $175 billion of agency debt.
In order to promote a smooth transition in
markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the
pace of these purchases, and it anticipates that
these transactions will be executed by the end of
the first quarter. The Committee will continue to
evaluate its purchases of securities in light of the
evolving economic outlook and conditions in
financial markets.
The Committee will maintain the target range
for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and
continues to anticipate that economic
conditions, including low rates of resource
utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable
inflation expectations, are likely to warrant
exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate
for an extended period. To provide support to
mortgage lending and housing markets and to
improve overall conditions in private credit
markets, the Federal Reserve is in the process
of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgagebacked securities and about $175 billion of
agency debt. In order to promote a smooth
transition in markets, the Committee is
gradually slowing the pace of these purchases,
and it anticipates that these transactions will be
executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010.
The Committee will continue to evaluate the
timing and overall amounts of its purchases of
securities in light of the evolving economic
outlook and conditions in financial markets.
La Fed réitère vouloir maintenir
les
taux
à
des
niveaux
extrêmement faibles pendant
une période prolongée.
De
nombreux
éléments
continuent toutefois de freiner
l’activité : la détérioration du
marché de l’emploi, la rareté du
crédit et les excès de capacité.
Elle confirme l’arrêt des facilités
de crédit exceptionnelles mises
en place pendant la crise et du
programme d’achat de MBS, tout
en se gardant la liberté de les
reprendre si besoin est.
In light of improved functioning of financial
markets, the Federal Reserve will be closing
the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money
Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the
Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary
Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities
Lending Facility on February 1, as previously
announced. In addition, the temporary liquidity
swap arrangements between the Federal
Reserve and other central banks will expire on
February 1. The Federal Reserve is in the
process of winding down its Term Auction
Facility: $50 billion in 28-day credit will be
offered on February 8 and $25 billion in 28-day
credit will be offered at the final auction on March
8. The anticipated expiration dates for the Term
Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility remain set
at June 30 for loans backed by new-issue
commercial mortgage-backed securities and
March 31 for loans backed by all other types of
collateral. The Federal Reserve is prepared to
modify these plans if necessary to support
financial stability and economic growth.
In light of ongoing improvements in the
functioning of financial markets, the Committee
and the Board of Governors anticipate that
most of the Federal Reserve’s special liquidity
facilities will expire on February 1, 2010,
consistent with the Federal Reserve’s
announcement of June 25, 2009. These
facilities include the Asset-Backed Commercial
Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity
Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility,
the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term
Securities Lending Facility. The Federal
Reserve will also be working with its central
bank counterparties to close its temporary
liquidity swap arrangements by February 1. The
Federal Reserve expects that amounts
provided under the Term Auction Facility will
continue to be scaled back in early 2010. The
anticipated expiration dates for the Term AssetBacked Securities Loan Facility remain set at
June 30, 2010, for loans backed by new-issue
commercial mortgage-backed securities and
March 31, 2010, for loans backed by all other
types of collateral. The Federal Reserve is
prepared to modify these plans if necessary to
support financial stability and economic growth.
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