Five scenarios for Freight and Logistics in 2040 Philippe Duong
Transcription
Five scenarios for Freight and Logistics in 2040 Philippe Duong
Five scenarios for Freight and Logistics in 2040 Philippe Duong (Samarcande) and Michel Savy (Université Paris-Est-Créteil) The world situation is very uncertain: the crisis opened in 2008 is certainly not over, beyond short term financial starts, and reaches all dimensions of society. This crisis is financial, but also economic, social and environmental. Considering the great unpredictability of perspectives and the concern of citizens and of economic actors, the need for long range studies is stronger than ever, so as to throw light upon the future, particularly upon exchange economics, i.e. a key activity of the last half century (the one of the "Glorious Thirty Years") and of the present globalisation period. The need for futurology is crucial for transport and logistics, particularly for infrastructure, the core of public planning, which has a very long life. A heavy investment like a railway line, considered to-day and constructed in 2025, will be in service till the end of the century. This need is also crucial for economic operators, more and more imbedded in global exchanges and dependent on the transport and logistics system, even if they manage their business in the most flexible possible way. Following the project presented in 2008 (entitled « Prospective fret 2030 ») the current research aims at proposing various scenarios, taking into account the situation following the economic crisis opened in 2008, but ignoring "nightmare scenarios" such as a global crisis escaping any control, a major epidemic, a climate accident, a world war, etc. These occurrences cannot be entirely discarded but cannot give birth to realistic assumptions, given their stochastic character and their very unpredictable consequences. These scenarios consider that the transport system is relatively inert, particularly due to the heaviness of its infrastructure component, but is not frozen on the long range and rather plastic in the short range as it undergoes in an amplified way macroeconomic fluctuations. Goods transport: which breakdowns? The transport system is at the centre of major social choices and a main element of sustainable development. As shown on the diagram below, the answers to transport challenges do not entirely lie inside the transport system, but result from a systemic approach. 1 Il n’y a pas de prospective transport indépendante Mondialisation Système productif Ressources Energie Consommation, commerce Dis tribution Sphère de la production Génération de flux Services Démographie Coûts Politique publique Industrie agriculture Territoires Sphère de l’humanité Vitesse, délais Climat, environnement Organisation logistique Sphère des échanges Technologies Organisation transport Distance Infra Acteurs Modèles tpt. Volume Système de transport Ruptures Risques de rupture One must look for current breakdowns and for foreseeable ones in the organisation of economy, of geography, of society and in the way of life as much as in technology. Technology obviously evolves very fast, especially in the information realm, but does not change radically the ways of carrying and handling goods. The crisis unveils new stakes and new contradictions that address globalisation, production models and methods of public action. Crossing topics and variables Several topics appear as essential for a long range analysis. They are the basis for scenarios and allow us to feed the various transport system prospective visions we shall elaborate. These topics (7) are crossed with variables (also 7) that represent the different terms of public action and of human choices, were they social, strategic or political, and that decisively determine the system evolution. These variables are addressed according to contrasted assumptions. The crossing of topics and of variables provides a matrix, the actual "research engine" of our approach. The boxes of the matrix are gathered into coherent packs, according to general common hypotheses, that supply us with the material for scenarios. 7 topics : - Production system Ways of consumption Spatial change Transport infrastructure Climate, green house effect Transport technology Transport system Logistics organisation 7 variables : - Demography - Economic actors' strategy for raw materials 2 - Energy policies Global economic strategies New technology Public policies and financial capacity Sustainable development policies THEMES VARIABLES Démographi e Technologies des transports Système de transports Organisations logistiques Augmentation GES ; poursuite sensible du réchauffement climatique Développemen t des techno et de régulation des trafics ; techno de massification trafics routiers ; techno d'optimisation de l'intermodalité Besoins concentrés sur métropoles et corridors ; flux concentrés engorgement ; prédominance route ; modes massifiés sur corridors et ports; hubs multimodaux Logistique de masse et flux tendus ; besoins en logistiques urbaines plus poussés ; grandes hubs logistiques Faible augmentation de la fréquentation des infrastructures ; peu de besoins d'infra nouvelles Ralentissement des émissions de GES ; impacts sur réchauffement climatique Techno d'optimisation des véhicules routiers ; amélioration des techno multimodales actuelles Besoins concentrés autour de grandes métropoles et corridors ; multimodalité pour transport diffus Besoins en logistique urbaine ; mutualisation logistique ; logistique + personnalisée Pas de besoins de nouvelles infrastructures ; difficultés d'entretien Baisse des GES ; inversion tendance réchauffement climatique Pas d'avancés techno notables ; adaptation des outils aux volumes plus faibles Besoins croissants de mutualiser les transports (tournées, livraisons) et les infrastructures + grande part des stocks ; + de délais ; besoin croissant mutualiser supply-chain (entrepôts) HYPOTHESES Système productif Modes de consommation Evolution des territoires Infrastructures de transports Croissance forte Disponibilité de main d'œuvre ; marché de consommation ; croissance imports de produits de consommation et des activités agricoles et de proximité de marché Consommation de masse ; standardisation produits ; poids croissant de la grande distribution ; inégalités accès à produits éthiques Etalement urbain ; densification générale des territoires ; renforcement des métropoles ; renforcement des tropismes Sud et Ouest Infrastructures très sollicitées ; besoins nouveaux ; corridors ; massification des trafics ; augmentation des coûts de gestion Croissance faible Marché de consommation affaibli ; relocalisation prod de proximité selon la démographie Stagnation consommation ; vieillissement consommateurs ; commerce éthique plus ouvert Déséquilibres démographiqu es régionaux ; métropolisation modérée ; poursuite des tropismes S et O Décroissance Pénurie MO ; baisse de consommation ; dualisation production (de masse plus concentrée et de proximité) Baisse de la consommation ; part dominante des consommateurs âgés Stagnation métropolitaine ; désertification de régions enclavées Climat, GES Construction of scenarios The future of transport strongly depends on social choices and the production of long range scenarios for transport and logistics requires addressing three key issues that will determine the type of society likely to occur: - The nature of growth The role of public action and of collective voluntarism Geopolitical uncertainties We therefore propose six hypothesis of social choice, resulting from the crossing of two types of variables: - Growth rates Collective policy choices The six hypothesis are the framework for contrasted scenarios, considering the exchange system in coming years. The definition of scenarios crosses two series of variables: - Transport use intensity - Use values resulting from the transport system Reaction Anticipation Rapid growth Moderate growth Decline Continuation of the pre-crisis model Continuation of current trends Shocks and chaos Growth, ecology, public action Extension of the "Grenelle agreement" Chosen decrease 3 5 scenarios are then elaborated: - - "Asymmetrical globalisation", corresponding to the continuation of the pre-crisis model "Business as usual", corresponding to the continuation of current trends "New golden years", corresponding to the hypothesis of growth, ecology and public action "Sustainable development", corresponding to the extension of the "Grenelle agreement" (the result of negotiations between French employers' associations, employees' unions, nongovernmental organisations, local authorities and State authorities supporting sustainable development policies, in 2007 and 2008) "Decline", corresponding to a chosen decrease of production and consumption. Plus de transport, dégradation des conditions de vie + Transport Plus de transport, progression des conditions de vie Nouvelles glorieuses Mondialisation asymétrique Fil de l’eau Développement durable Décroissance Moins de transport, révolution des conditions vie - Plafonnement du transport, stagnation des conditions de vie Valeurs d’usage + Moins de transport, mutation des conditions de vie Scenario 1: asymmetrical globalisation This scenario considers the continuation of the trends in force previously to the crisis, relying on globalisation, the pursuit of the international division of labour, a strong growth in emergent countries and a noticeable growth in ancient industrial countries relying on services, particularly financial services. This requires more free market mechanisms and less public intervention. New margins are made available considering energy and natural resources, due to technological progress. International logistics is in quick change, particularly imports into Europe where manufacturing industry goes on declining. The economy is consumption oriented, with massive flows of commodities managed "just in time", and major logistics service providers as well as biggest retailers play a leading role. Gateways, world main ports, trunk corridors and major metropolitan areas (together with urban sprawl and spatial segregation) are the key components of transport and logistics geography. In this system, one notices a vigorous growth of traffic, with a prevailing share for road haulage (92 % of total inland transport), except on main corridors which concentrate consolidated traffics and suffer from congestion. Outside of these corridors, railways are in marginal position and inland waterway does not grow much. Technology makes particular progress to speed up productivity and improve energy efficiency of road transport. On the opposite, this scenario induces but limited results for sustainable development and the volume of green house gas augments. This scenario corresponds to an uneven and unsustainable model of development, with little energy and raw materials savings. 4 Hypothèse de trafic Scénario 1 à 2030 TC % Gtkm PM % R F VE Tot +77 -20 +60 +64 552 40 8 600 92 7 1 100 Scenario 2: business as usual The business as usual scenario does imply the continuation of the current evolution (e.g., it encompasses the trend for energy prices increase, requiring adequate response), but it maintains the same general rationale. European growth is slow and strongly constrained by demographic limits. Economy goes on with its specialisation trend toward services, high tech and luxury manufacturing, whereas imports provide goods produced by traditional industries. Transport growth slows down (the elasticity coefficient in relationship with GDP is smaller than 1). Hypothèse de trafic Scénario 2 à 2030 TC % Gtkm PM % R F VE Tot Traffic transit opens makes +45 -20 +60 +37 452 40 8 500 90 8 2 100 concentration on international corridors goes on, in relationship with international trade and growth. The role of maritime ports is more important, for the service of their hinterland that opportunities for non-road transport solutions. Still, rail still declines and inland waterway only a slow progress. Urbanisation continues and income and consumption economics (as opposed to production economics) can be locally predominant, increasing the importance of urban logistics. Concerning transport policy, market mechanisms remain the rule, even if public policies are successful when dealing with external effects (pollution, road insecurity). The issue of green house gas emissions remains unsolved. Scenario 3: new golden years This scenario represents a growth model choice relying on intensive investment in collective services and "green technology", supported by a strong public involvement. It goes back to the French "30 Golden Years" model, the one of the intense growth period between 1945 and 1975, and updates it. It results in a strong manufacturing industries growth, due to a voluntary public policy, in the framework a globalised environment. France is active in worldwide economy, particularly in system industries and network industries, therefore strengthening major groups but also boosting national small and medium business. Public intervention manifests itself through important borrowing and the overhaul of the fiscal system, through investments in key industries considered as a lever for growth, together with a social progress policy. Apparently, sustainable development targets remain the core of the strategy, but the respect of existing production and consumption models does not allow a radical shift concerning green house gas emissions. Logistics receives a new impulse, together with national industry, particularly for exports and for the consolidation of traffic on main corridors. Those are adequate for a multimodal service, including rail and inland waterway. Railway transport benefits from a complete renewal of its supply and waterway 5 from the network unification, due to massive investment. Road remains the dominant mode (about 75 % of traffic) but bears heavy use-tolls. Hypothèse de trafic Scénario 3 à 2030 TC % Gtkm PM % R F VE Tot +33 +140 +200 +50 415 120 15 550 75 22 3 100 Territory evolves according to a relatively well balanced metropolitan scheme, with a renewal of regional manufacturing, even in areas previously affected by off-shoring. Gateways, particularly harbour regions, are strongly concerned with this dynamics. This scenario relies on green tech expansion, that in the same time fosters energy efficiency, non road transport modes and sustainable logistics organisation and limits green house gas emission, although rapid economic growth tempers these effects. Scenario 4: sustainable development All actors, including shippers, undertake transport sustainability improvement. All means, be they technical, organisational, legal or fiscal, are combined in this intention, but without any radical breakdown. Evolution of life styles, spare of raw materials, repair, short circuits and recycling, together with corresponding logistics, intensely develop, but the general framework remains the globalisation of economy, in spite of mitigating policies followed in many countries. Secondary ports emerge beside main ones for intra-European short sea shipping, together with a growth of inland waterway traffic, the setting up of a new railway freight transport model, the progress of road haulage efficiency (which remains essential). Hypothèse de trafic Scénario 4 à 2030 TC % Gtkm PM % R -4 300 71 F +100 100 24 VE +300 20 5 Tot +15 420 100 In this context, an efficient European logistics is necessary, considering the new industrialisation of territory and of economy, stronger proximity economy and local cooperative practices, linked with main harbours and worldwide economy. In large metropolitan areas, a sophisticated urban logistics system is set up, following the Japanese example. Substantial progress is made in terms of transport sustainability, but the long range prospect is to divide green house gas emissions by two (a "factor 2"), a factor 4 seeming out of reach concerning transport activities and more demanding efforts being therefore devoted to other sectors. Scenario 5: decline The decline scenario is a radical breakdown with the current model, which shows itself in the end of consumerism and of mass production and in a strong trend toward de-globalisation, together with a more even distribution of wealth. The result is a GNP decrease (the very concept of which is challenged as a proper index of development), particularly of its material goods production component. In fact, a new type of civilisation aims at lowering the human footprint, particularly at lowering energy and materials consumption and at a general implementation of recycling and of collective practices. 6 Concerning production, this model insists on proximity relationships, shortened circuits, it supports local productive systems relying on diversified and rational manufacturing. In the same time, the dramatic decline of goods production results in a decline of exchange, and namely of international trade, together with the look for self-dependency and protectionism. Considering regions, one can expect a decline of population, a certain urban areas decline and a rural areas renewal, resulting in a more even population distribution. Considering governance, the consequence is the decrease of central authorities, especially at national and European levels, and a strong decline of infrastructure investment, the use of which no longer affords a high maintenance cost. Hypothèse de trafic Scénario 5 à 2030 TC % Gtkm PM % R F VE Tot -52 -20 +100 -45 150 40 10 200 75 20 5 100 Indeed, transport demand diminishes, both in terms of volume and of distance, non-road modes are chosen for long distance haulage (the global volume of which decreases) and road transport remains dominant for local traffic. Main harbours operate smaller traffic whereas inland waterway, including traditional small gauge links, expands. Technology progress does not strongly impact the transport system, except for information technology. Generally speaking, logistics is more local, but exogenous imported products are managed in a centralised logistics organisation, around main warehouses located in main cities and in regional distribution centres. Synthesis of scenarios Finally, scenarios result in following key issues: • the "asymmetrical globalisation" scenario is little acceptable, particularly according to recent public policies criteria (sustainable development), even at short term, as it is highly resource consuming. • the "business as usual" scenario is soft, without breakdowns, and does not solve any of the main problems to-day considered. • the "new golden years" scenario is a neo-Keynesian one, relying on reflationary measures and sustainable development new opportunities, even if it is not likely to reach the "factor 4" target. It depends on its socioeconomic environment, and contributes to change it. Its realism and its dependency on public authorities' financial resource are an open issue. • the "sustainable development" scenario corresponds to the French policy program called "Grenelle agreement for environment", radically implemented according to its rationale. But if one knows the recipe, one is not sure to be able to apply it and to overcome its underlying contradictions. • the "decline scenario" cannot be eagerly accepted by people, given it implies a drastic way of life shift. It can hardly be implemented without a civilisation shock, which could happen, for example, after an economic or political upheaval. Finally, these five scenarios provide us with a contrasted picture of possible futures, but they do not provide us with a comprehensive solution, and do not solve all problems. Some of them cannot be accepted, but correspond to the current situation; others seem more attractive but face constraints one can hardly bypass or require an anachronistic voluntarism; others again would be hardly accepted by many people, considering the change in the way of life they postulate. 7 Weak probability Weak acceptability Decline Medium probability Asymmetrical globalisation Strong probability Medium acceptability Strong acceptability New Golden Years Sustainable development Business as usual Main scenarios stakes All five scenarios raise important issues. Some of them are converging and reveal unavoidable stakes, according to different intensities. Others are divergent, contradictory or even antagonistic. Convergent issues - Natural and energetic resource always are on the agenda, considering the shortage situation all scenarios will lead to in the short or long range - Demography is a major variable that cannot be neglected - Climate receives a different importance in various scenarios, but is a key problem for all of them in the long term - Demand satisfaction is a central component of the system, whether it is organised by the market or relies on a human needs based conception. - Cooperation is an optimisation tool for transport and logistics, whatever the goals. - In all cases, road haulage will remain the dominant transport mode. - Inland waterway, a cheap and efficient mode of transport, can be operated on big canals or small traditional ones according to different scenarios. - Maritime ports (big or small) play a central role in the transport system. - Logistics outsourcing will probably be a stable trend, considering the necessary professionalization of the business. - Technological progress, different from one scenario to another, is in all cases a key variable, particularly Information technology. - Grouping logistics premises in freight villages seems necessary to optimise its spatial organisation. - Main corridors will attract a major part of traffic, for road transport or for other modes according to scenarios. Divergent issues - Life style is a key issue, but quite different from a scenario to another - Production organisation can either repeat current rationale or propose new ones. - Social progress is a central target in some scenarios, whereas it is strongly damaged in other ones. - State and public policies are a major divergence factor, as they are a crucial element of some scenarios and have a reduced importance in others. - Europe also receives a different role in various scenarios, as it can have a minimal influence or play an active and dynamic part. - Transport policies, reduced to a minimum or intense and dynamic, voluntary or giving way to market mechanisms, receive a variable importance. - Regulation and taxation range from a very low level (asymmetrical globalisation) to a radical high level (sustainable development). - Infrastructure receives heavy investments but also disinvestments. - Modal shift is quite different in various scenarios, weak for two of them and substantial for the three others. - The difference is particularly strong for railway, ranging from mere marginalisation to doubling its share of traffic. 8 Proposals None of the five scenarios will entirely occur; intermediate or hybrid paths will be taken into consideration. Some scenarios can hardly be accepted and are little likely to happen, and the "business as usual" scenario does not clearly address necessary social choices; the "new golden years" and "sustainable development" are more substantial and more innovative, they are closer to present ambition considering sustainable development, broadly shared by the public opinion. Several proposals are therefore put forward for public decision makers. Logistics excellence: - Strengthen cooperation for transport and logistics operation, particularly on a local level. - Disseminate logistics competence in small business and local firms. - Support local logistics providers' emergence. - Upgrade transport and logistics jobs social conditions. - Use logistics as a lever for manufacturing development, with global logistics solutions. - Optimise and develop cross section approach of logistics chains. Logistics and territory: - Grouping logistics premises in freight villages: optimise logistics sites location, avoid logistics sprawl, and link these sites with non-road transport means and support consolidation of freight. - Promote cross roads and multimodal network nodes, so as to disseminate logistics in regions. - Set up location contracts so as to diminish unnecessary inland transport. - Consider urban logistics as a key element of logistics organisation. Transport system: - Control of green gas emissions through taxation of road usage. - Support a long range vision and a capacity for organisation at national level, to coordinate more numerous actors. - Give public priority to infrastructure financing. - Better understanding and knowledge of logistics and transport demand. Transport modes: - Implement an actual policy for maritime harbours, beyond infrastructure issues, and make ports a key element for intermodal transport. - Develop inland waterway as a mode of the future, connect present basins and reconsider the use of small gauge canals. - Support a real railway revolution, relying on a completely new concept, universal, efficient and linked with the supply chain of firms and of regions. - Considering road transport will remain dominant, apply all possible technological and organisational progress to it, develop cooperation, and increase productivity on lines where non-road modes are not efficient. Gouvernance: - At European level, address the obvious contradiction between the competition policy, entirely of EU competence, and social and fiscal policies, that belong to member States. The single market cannot work in an harmonious way without a trend towards social and fiscal convergence. Currently, the French road haulage companies have been entirely expelled from the international transport market, due to salary and to tax dumping, and liberalisation of cabotage is likely to augment this biased competition. This trend does not allow the emergence of a highly qualified logistics industry which modern economics require. 9 - At national level, France cannot do without a strategy and without a logistics and transport project, considering the corresponding stakes for the entire economy and society. A comprehensive logistics strategy must be implemented, in relationship with an industrial policy and an export policy, including harbours, railway, inland waterway as well as a master plan for freight villages. - At regional level, one must enhance public intervention, organise the reception of logistics activities, coordinate logistics physical planning according to the accessibility of non-road transport modes, elaborate a national master plan for logistics. * Scenarios are not a prediction. They are a means to approach possible futures, likely to provide decision makers, be they public or private, with elements likely to help them. Let us hope the present exercise reaches this ambition. * 10