Irish Equity Morning Note

Irish Equity Morning Note
March 7, 2011
Equity Desk: +353 1 670 2233
Equity Research: +353 1 611 5611
Today’s News
¾Economic Update
Ireland gets a new government
¾Paddy Power (€29.40) – HOLD
FY Results in line with expectation
¾FBD Holdings (€7.79) – BUY
FY results due tomorrow
¾Irish Continental (€17.74) – BUY
Minimal 2010 debt of €8m, 100 cent dividend expected, fuel a focus
¾Aer Lingus (€0.87)
Aer Lingus passenger stats and Irish airport tax
¾DCC (€23.52) – BUY
DCC to acquire Total Butler?
Global Update
Last Friday’s US employment report for February showed a strong
increase of 192,000 in the non-farm payroll……..Allowing for positive
demographics, the non-farm payroll needs to be growing above the
150,000 per month mark to achieve a slow improvement in the
unemployment rate, confirming the economy’s capacity for self
sustaining recovery…..most indicators now support the view that the US
labour market has arrived at this point…….The US unemployment rate
ticked down again in February to 8.9% from 9.0% in January. The
peak was at 10.1% in October 2009 and a clear downward trend has
recently become established. When the Fed made its first official
interest rate hike in the previous cycle in June 2004, the unemployment
rate had fallen from a peak at 6.3% in June 2003 to 5.6% and had
established a clear downtrend. However, in June 2004 the core US
inflation rate was trending up again whereas it is still trending lower at
present, and the level of the unemployment rate was a lot lower than
currently……
Disclosures begin on page 8
Produced by NCB Stockbrokers Limited, a member of ESN
Distributed by the members of ESN
(see last page of this report)
Market
S&P 500 INDEX
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX
FTSEUROFIRST 300 INDEX
FTSE 100 INDEX
NIKKEI 225
SHANGHAI A SHARES
IRISH OVERALL INDEX
Latest
1321.2
2784.7
1148.5
5990.4
10505.0
3333.7
2920.2
1d%
-0.7
-0.5
-0.6
-0.2
-1.8
1.9
-0.3
6m%
21.0
26.1
8.2
10.8
13.9
11.8
4.9
Forex
Euro/$
Euro/Stg
Euro/Yen
$/Yen
Latest
1.3979
0.8600
114.99
82.26
1d%
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
6m%
9.8
-4.0
-7.5
1.8
Bond Yields
US 10yr
German 10yr
UK 10yr
Japanese 10yr
Irish 10yr
Spain 10yr
Irish/German 10yr Spread
Spain/German 10yr Spread
Latest
3.48
3.27
3.63
1.27
9.38
5.39
6.11
2.12
1d bp
-0.9
0.0
0.0
-1.9
-2.4
-1.6
-2.4
-1.6
6m bp
88.6
101.8
101.8
11.3
362.7
136.3
260.9
34.5
Corporate Bond Yields
Moody's AAA Indices
Moody's BAA Indices
Latest
5.21
6.13
1d%
1.0
1.2
6m%
15.8
7.7
US Corporate Bond Spreads
(over US 10yr Treasury)
Moody's AAA Indices
Moody's BAA Indices
Latest
1d%
6m%
1.73
2.65
5.0
4.1
-34.9
-31.1
Official CB Interest Rates
ECB Rate
UK Base Rate
US Fed Funds
JPY Rate
Latest
1.000
0.500
0.250
0.100
1d%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6m%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Money Market Rates
Euribor EUR 3M
Libor GBP 3M
Libor USD 3M
Latest
1.162
0.805
0.310
1d%
5.8
0.3
0.0
6m%
31.6
10.9
5.7
Money Market Spreads
(over Official CB Rates)
Euribor EUR 3M Spread
Libor GBP 3M Spread
Libor USD 3M Spread
Latest
1d%
6m%
0.162
0.305
0.060
-39.5
-0.8
0.0
-238.5
34.9
39.0
Commodities
WTI Crude Future
Gold
CRB US Spot Foodstuff
CRB US Spot Metals
Baltic Dry Index
Latest
106.4
1436
498
1084
1346
1d%
2.0
0.6
0.5
-0.6
2.2
6m%
31.7
14.3
25.0
30.2
-53.2
Upcoming Events…..
08 Mar
FBD Holdings: FY Results
09 Mar
Tullow Oil: IMS
10 Mar
DS Smith: IMS
14 Mar
ARYZTA: H1 Results
10 May
CRH: AGM/IMS
10 May
Kerry: AGM/IMS
All ESN research is available
on Bloomberg: “ESNR” <go>
NCB Stockbrokers Ltd is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. NCB Stockbrokers Ltd is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock
Exchange.
Morning News & Views
Economic Update
Ireland/Economy
•
Ireland gets a new government
•
Fine Gael and Labour have agreed a Programme for Government, with the new
Government expected to be appointed on Wednesday. Fine Gael have retained the
traditional role of Finance Minister with Michael Noonan the most likely candidate to
fulfil the position. The new Government is targeting a reduction in the deficit to 3% by
2015. The new partners have committed to maintaining the current rates of income
tax together with bands and credits and go onto say that they will not increase the
top marginal rates of taxes on income. There is to be a reduction in public service
numbers of between 18,000 and 21,000 by 2014, compared to the total number at
the end of 2010. The number if to be further reduced by a further 4,000 by 2015. The
new partners have said that they will target up to €2 billion in sales of non-strategic
state assets drawing from the recommendations of the McCarthy Review Group on
State Assets when available.
•
The new Government will seek a reduced interest rate on the bailout loan agreement.
With regard to the senior bond issue the Programme for Government goes onto say
“The Government accepts that enabling provisions in legislation may be necessary to
extend the scope of bank liability restructuring to include unsecured, unguaranteed
senior Bonds”. This is consistent with our view as outlined in the piece “Are Anglo
senior unsecured bonds safe?” A friendly tender would allow politicians to go back to
the electorate with a saving in hand and the new government would not have invoked
the wrath of the ECB/EU. The stick for a prospective holder is the threat that
legislation can be enacted to make a coercive tender more likely. To date, however,
that legislation has not been brought forward. The risk reward for holding senior
unsecured debt in the non‐viable banks is looking increasingly more attractive. The
new Governments language can be seen as that stick.
Brian Devine +353 1 611 5847 [email protected]
NCB Stockbrokers Ltd is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. NCB Stockbrokers Ltd is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London
Stock Exchange
Morning News & Views
Paddy Power
Key financials (EUR)
Sales (m)
EBITDA (m)
EBITDA margin
EBIT (m)
EBIT m argin
Net Profit (adj.)(m)
ROCE
Net debt/ (cash) (m )
Net Debt/Eq uity
Debt/EBITDA
Int . cover(EBITDA/Fi n. int
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA (ad j.)
EV/EBIT
P/E (adj.)
P/BV
OpFCF yield
Dividend yield
EPS (adj. )
BVPS
DPS
€29.40
12/09
2,751
85
3.1%
67
2.4%
57
12/10e
3,746
125
3.3%
104
2.8%
80
12/11e
4,229
125
3.0%
101
2.4%
84
58.5%
(73)
-0.4
-0.9
(170.3)
0.4
12.7
12.7
16.2
20.3
7.3
7.5%
1.9%
1.22
96.4%
(130)
-0.6
-1.0
(880.1)
0.4
10.8
10.8
12.9
18.4
7.4
9.2%
2.2%
1.67
57.4%
(97)
-0.4
-0.8
(81.7)
0.3
9.9
9.9
12.2
16.9
5.9
9.1%
2.5%
1.74
3.39
0.56
4.15
0.64
4.96
0.73
HOLD
Ireland/Gaming
•
FY Results in line with expectation
•
The Facts: Paddy Power released full-year 2010 results. Operating profits
increased to €104m (+56% y-o-y) with the adjusted EPS rising 40% to 169c (both
broadly in line with our forecast and at the high end of management guidance). The
full-year dividend per share rose 28% to 75c (implies 44% payout ratio) while cash
balances increased to €159m (2009: €75m).
•
Our Analysis: On a divisional basis, the online business (excl Australia) continues
to perform strongly with FY 2010 operating profits rising to €57.5m (+20% y-o-y).
Amounts staked increased 29% (y-o-y) to €1.1bn while the sportsbook gross win
margin expanded by 170bps to 8.6% (2009: 6.9%). The overall gross win increased
by 61% (y-o-y) to €91m.
•
Operating profits in the Australian division rose to €19.5m (2009: €4.6m) principally
driven by a large increase in customer activity (online: +46%) together with favorable
sports results. The gross win percentage increased to 7.9% (2009: 7.1%) with the
group confident of achieving this margin level going forward (assuming normal results
and mix).
•
The performance of the Irish Retail division is feeling the affects of the tough
economic conditions, with the total amount staked in 2010 declining 4% (y-o-y) to
€908m (down 7% on a like-for-like basis excluding new shop openings).
Nevertheless, an improved gross win margin (+90bps y-o-y to 12.1%) helped to
drive operating profit growth of 8% to €17.6m.
•
Operating profits in the UK retail business rose to €7.4m (2009: €1.3m) with the
division benefitting from increased shop maturity, but also increased profitability per
shop as a result of the introduction of the new “Storm” FOTB (machine gross wins
rose 66% to €24m) together with a normlaisation of sporting results.
•
Conclusion & Action: On outlook, turnover and sporting results in the current
year have started strong, despite the adverse weather conditions experienced in
Australia. Sportsbook amount staked are up 16% (y-o-y) and total gross win is up
38% (y-o-y) in the first two months. According to Bloomberg reports, Paddy Power is
comfortable with median consensus estimates for a 2011 EPS of 178c (+5% y-o-y),
giving us the scope to increase our numbers (NCB current forecast: 2011 EPS of
174c). We expect the group’s strong online presence, coupled with its fast-growing
Australian operations to compensate for a weak domestic performance over the
coming year. The stock is currently trading on 15x our 2012 earnings (197c). A
presentation will take place at 9am – Ireland: + 01 242 1074, UK: 0208 974 7900,
Pass code 947 225.
Ciaran Callaghan +353 1 611 5876 [email protected]
NCB Stockbrokers Ltd is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. NCB Stockbrokers Ltd is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London
Stock Exchange
Morning News & Views
FBD Holdings
€7.79
Key financials (EUR)
Lif e Gross premiu ms (m )
Non-L ife Gross prem .(m)
To tal Net Revenues (m)
Lif e Ins.Tech.Result (m)
Non-L ife Ins. Tech.Result
EBIT (m)
12/09
0
357
342
0
15
-35
12/10e
0
364
349
0
41
35
12/11e
0
389
375
0
67
51
Net Profit (adj.) (m)
Sh arehol ders Equity (m)
ANAV (m)
ROE (adj.) (%)
Comb ined ratio (%)
P/E (adj.)
P/BV
P/ANAV
P/EbV
Dividend Yield
EPS (adj. )
BVPS
ANAVPS
Eb VPS
25
192
6
-14.5
104.1
9.3
1.2
1.2
nm
3.9%
0.74
5.74
5.74
0.00
32
209
6
15.5
100.7
6.4
1.0
1.0
6.2
5.0%
0.97
6.28
6.28
1.00
46
235
7
20.0
96.6
5.7
1.1
1.1
3.9
7.0%
1.37
7.05
7.05
2.00
0.30
0.39
0.55
DPS
BUY
Ireland/Financials
•
FY results due tomorrow
•
The Facts: FBD is set to release full-year 2010 results tomorrow (8 March). We
forecast an increase in the operating EPS of 30% (y-o-y) to 97c, which is below
management guidance of 105 to 110c. However the latter was issued in mid
November, prior to the outbreak of extreme weather conditions suffered in the run up
to year-end. Consequently we prudently decided to leave our estimates unchanged,
albeit note that reinsurance protection will help to mitigate potential claims (limits
freeze related losses to €5m over a seven day period).
•
Our Analysis: Further evidence of a hardening in premium rates is anticipated at
the full-year stage (particularly in home and business). However, we expect motor
pricing to continue to lag other product lines, largely as a result of intense
competition. We still forecast total premiums to increase by 6% in 2010, offset to
some extent by a fall in volumes and cover. Overall, we expect gross written
premiums to rise by 2% (y-o-y) to €364m.
•
On the loss ratio, the H1 underlying performance showed marked improvement
(especially in the frequency of claims), with this positive trend expected to continue in
H2. We forecast a FY loss ratio of 81% (or 77% excluding January’s €12m of
exceptional weather losses). After incorporating costs of €60m, the combined ratio is
set to rise to 101% (2009: 104%), with an overall underwriting loss of €2m forecasted
(2009: €13m).
•
Elsewhere, we expect the non-underwriting result to fall to €4.2m (2009: €6.5m),
masking a solid performance in the financial business. While operating conditions in
the property and leisure business persist to be challenging, FBD’s focus on cost
reduction should ensure that the divisions remain profitable and cash generative. On
impairments, some further modest writedowns are likely following updated valuations,
however the Irish FBD hotel chain was already written down by 45% below its peak
2007 valuation at H1 (developer loans – 55%).
•
Conclusion & Action: Trading on just 5.7x our 2011 recovery earnings (EPS
137c) with a prospective 2011 dividend yield of 7%, we remain positive on the stock
and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Ciaran Callaghan +353 1 611 5876 [email protected]
NCB Stockbrokers Ltd is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. NCB Stockbrokers Ltd is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London
Stock Exchange
Morning News & Views
Irish Continental
€17.74
Key financials (EUR)
Sales (m)
EBITDA (m)
EBITDA margin
EBIT (m)
EBIT m argin
Net Profit (adj.)(m)
12/09
261
51
19.5%
27
10.2%
25
12/10e
264
54
20.6%
31
11.9%
29
12/11e
270
56
20.9%
35
13.1%
34
ROCE
Net debt/ (cash) (m )
Net Debt/Eq uity
Debt/EBITDA
Int . cover(EBITDA/Fi n. int
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA (ad j.)
EV/EBIT
P/E (adj.)
P/BV
OpFCF yield
Dividend yield
EPS (adj. )
13.1%
22
0.1
0.4
31.8
1.5
7.5
7.5
14.3
13.5
2.4
15.9%
5.6%
1.08
17.6%
8
0.0
0.1
30.2
1.5
7.3
7.3
12.6
13.2
2.3
10.5%
5.6%
1.17
21.3%
(15)
-0.1
-0.3
80.4
1.6
7.6
7.6
12.2
12.3
2.5
12.0%
5.6%
1.45
6.19
1.00
6.69
1.00
7.04
1.00
BVPS
DPS
BUY
Ireland/Transport
•
Minimal 2010 debt of €8m, 100 cent dividend expected, fuel
a focus
•
The Facts: ICG reports 2010 results on 14 March. We forecast total revenues of
€263m, EBITDA of €54.4m. EPS of 146.8 cent is forecast, including an €8m gain
arising on the sale of the Pride of Bilbao. Excluding this gain, we forecast adjusted
EPS of 117.2 cent and a dividend of 100 cent.
•
Our Analysis: ICG issued an IMS on 18 November to the end of October.
Passengers carried were up 8.9%, car numbers were down 1.0% and ro-ro freight
volumes were 10.4% lower than in 2009. Container freight volumes were 4.1% higher
and units handled at the Group’s 2 port terminals rose 1.6%.
•
In the remainder of the year we expect trading to have followed similar patterns.
Passenger car carryings will have benefited in December 2010 from the severe
weather disruption caused to the airline sector, while the decline in ro-ro freight
should have continued to moderate as comparables become easier. In the container
business, the Group intentionally shed some lower-yielding volumes in H2 2010.
•
Cash generation will have continued to be strong and we forecast end-2010 net
debt of €8m after free cash generation of €35m for the year. The gain on the sale
of the Pride of Bilbao in 2010 highlights the Group’s relatively conservative
depreciation policies.
•
We forecast a dividend of 100 cent per share in respect of 2010, representing a
yield of 5.6%. This is covered 1.5x by 2010 EPS (including the Bilbao gain) and 1.4x
by the Group’s free cash generation. With modest capex needs over the medium
term the security of this dividend is a particular.
•
The outlook for the economy and for fuel will be important. The Irish economy
has seen strong exports in the past year, while the multinational segment of the
economy is trading well in response to economic recovery globally. Related imports
have also been strong. Freight flows related to domestic consumption are likely to
have remained sluggish. This trend is likely to continue.
•
Fuel is expected to remain unhedged, with the total fuel bill rising from €32m in
2009 to circa €41m in 2010. This is a material cost increase but fuel surcharges in
freight and higher passenger yields (we estimate 8-10%) will have sustained profit
recovery in the face of this increased bill. The fuel cost outlook will have deteriorated
in recent weeks and could rise by circa €10m year on year but need to ultimately be
passed on.
•
Capacity on the long sea routes on the Irish Sea was cut by DFDS (3 ships) at
the end of January, with Seatruck adding a single vessel. Stena Line also ceased its
Larne-Fleetwood service. Although not directly competing with ICG, these should be
positive for yields, while leaving ample scope for medium-term growth.
•
Conclusion & Action: With a near 5.6% dividend yield, minimal gearing, strong
competitive position and an 11% free cash flow yield (€47m in 2011) we maintain our
buy stance.
John Sheehan +353 1 611 5912 [email protected]
NCB Stockbrokers Ltd is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. NCB Stockbrokers Ltd is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London
Stock Exchange
Morning News & Views
Aer Lingus
€0.87
DCC
Key financials (EUR)
Sales (m)
EBITDA (m)
EBITDA margin
EBIT (m)
EBIT m argin
Net Profit (adj.)(m)
ROCE
Net debt/ (cash) (m )
Net Debt/Eq uity
Debt/EBITDA
Int . cover(EBITDA/Fi n. int
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA (ad j.)
EV/EBIT
P/E (adj.)
P/BV
OpFCF yield
Dividend yield
EPS (adj. )
BVPS
DPS
€23.52
03/10
6,725
240
3.6%
187
2.8%
147
14.6%
54
0.1
0.2
22.0
0.2
6.8
6.8
8.7
10.8
2.0
16.7%
2.9%
1.78
9.51
0.67
03/11e
8,275
283
3.4%
218
2.6%
170
16.0%
26
0.0
0.1
20.2
0.2
7.0
7.0
9.0
11.5
2.2
10.1%
3.2%
2.04
10.85
0.74
03/12e
8,355
283
3.4%
218
2.6%
169
15.6%
(47)
0.0
-0.2
25.7
0.2
6.8
6.8
8.8
11.7
1.8
10.2%
3.5%
2.02
12.78
0.82
Ireland/Airlines
•
Aer Lingus passenger stats and Irish airport tax
•
The Facts: Aer Lingus' total booked passenger numbers in February 2011 were
574,000, a decrease of 13.6% compared to February 2010. Short haul booked
passengers were 536,000, a 13.3% decrease on February 2010 while long haul
booked passengers in February 2011 were 38,000, a decrease of 17.4% on February
2010. The reduction in numbers reflects the fall in planned capacity and a lower load
factor (67.4% versus 69.9%). Available Seat Kilometres (“ASKs”) fell -13.8% with
short haul down -16.3% and long haul down -7.5%. The figures were also impacted
by the industrial dispute at the start of the month with the IMPACT cabin crew union,
which has subsequently been resolved.
•
Our Analysis: The new Irish Government has committed to abolish the Travel Tax
as part of its Programme of Government. The tax was temporarily reduced from €10
to €3 on March 1st as part of the outgoing Government’s last Budget. A permanent
reduction in the airport tax allows the airline to increase average fares without
damaging demand by too much given the relative size of the tax to average shorthaul fares. Aer Lingus average short-haul fare in 2010 was €85.92. Clearly a positive
for the airline, but it must be cautioned that the document does say that the new
Government intends to abolish “the Travel Tax as part of a deal with airlines to
restore lost routes”. There have been issues with agreeing this in the past, but given
the falling passenger numbers and hefty regulatory airport charges the new
Government should make a large effort to make an agreement with the airlines.
Brian Devine +353 1 611 5847 [email protected]
BUY
Ireland/Industrials
•
DCC to acquire Total Butler?
•
The Facts: According to the Sunday Times DCC has partnered up with private
equity group MRH to acquire selective assets from Total’s UK oil business.
•
Our Analysis: The article (06/03/11) states that Ion Equity, a private equity group,
will bid for Total’s 800 branded petrol stations which MRH is competing for while DCC
is bidding to acquire Total’s oil distribution business, Total Butler. Other bidders for
Total’s British assets include TPG Capital and Greenergy, the British fuel supplier.
•
We believe DCC would have the financial capacity to acquire Total Butler on its own
given its balance sheet strength (Net debt to EBITDA of 0.2x), with no material debt
repayments until FY2015.
•
Conclusion & Action: Last month DCC increased its UK oil distribution market
share following the purchase of Pace Fuelcare Ltd. In our report “Plenty of fuel in the
tank” we stated that Total’s subsidiary, Total Butler would fit well with DCC’s existing
operations, as it would significantly enhance the Group’s modest presence in
Southern England. Total Butler is a significant regional player with an estimated UK
market share of 2% with operations across Southern England, the Midlands, East
Anglia and Yorkshire. Acquisition discipline has been a distinctive feature of DCC
management and we estimate it has paid on average an EV/EBIT multiple of less
than 6.0x, excluding synergy benefits, since entering the UK oil distribution market.
Conor Harnett +353 1 611 5917 [email protected]
NCB Stockbrokers Ltd is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. NCB Stockbrokers Ltd is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London
Stock Exchange
Morning News & Views
Global Update
•
Last Friday’s US employment report for February showed a strong increase of 192,000
in the non-farm payroll. The January increase was revised up to 63,000 from 36,000 and
still looks to have been impacted by severe weather conditions. Allowing for positive
demographics, the non-farm payroll needs to be growing above the 150,000 per month mark
to achieve a slow improvement in the unemployment rate, confirming the economy’s capacity
for self sustaining recovery. Recent feedback from the weekly jobless claims figures, the ADP
private sector employment survey, the labour market sub-indices in the manufacturing and
non-manufacturing PMIs, and now from the non-farm payroll itself, all support the view that the
labour market has arrived at this point.
•
The US unemployment rate ticked down again in February to 8.9% from 9.0% in January.
The peak was at 10.1% in October 2009 and a clear downward trend has recently become
established. When the Fed made its first official interest rate hike in the previous cycle in June
2004, the unemployment rate had fallen from a peak at 6.3% in June 2003 to 5.6% and had
established a clear downtrend. However, in June 2004 the core US inflation rate was trending
up again whereas it is still trending lower at present, and the level of the unemployment rate
was a lot lower than currently, implying considerably less residual deflationary slack in the
economy. These are the reasons why the Fed is still easing rather than contemplating its first
tightening move. However, with official interest rates rising across the emerging / commodity
rich / creditor economies, and possibly starting to rise soon in the UK and Eurozone, the
potential for further inflationary stimulus of the US economy through Dollar depreciation means
that the Fed’s hitherto total control over US monetary policy could soon begin to be gradually
compromised by global economic and market forces.
•
The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee meets on Thursday this week. No
changes to the conventional or unconventional monetary policy stance are expected just yet
and markets will have to wait for the minutes, issuing about two weeks after the meeting, for
feedback. However, the minutes of the previous meeting showed a further significant tilt
towards the hawkish view. A third member of the nine-person monetary policy committee was
now looking for a rate hike. Two of these wanted a 0.25% increase while the original
dissenter was now looking for 0.5%. One member was still looking for more quantitative
easing, but appeared to be wavering. The other five members, including the Governor, were
generally acknowledging that inflation risks have been rising. The prospect of a BOE rate hike
by mid year has certainly become very real. However, with the economy increasingly under
the influence of severe fiscal retrenchment, unemployment still high and money / credit growth
still very weak, the actual outcome will remain heavily dependent on the unfolding economic
data.
•
US retail sales figures for February will be a focus point on Friday.
•
The S&P500 index of US shares closed 0.7% lower at 1321 last Friday and the future is at
1314 currently. The ten-year US Treasury bond yield is fairly stable at 3.48% currently.
•
Asian equity markets were mixed last night and weaker on balance as the oil price hits a
new recent high ($106.27 per barrel of WTI currently) in response to an intensification of the
conflict within Libya and ongoing worries that political instability could spread to key oil
producing states like Iran and Saudi Arabia. Energy related shares were stronger against the
trend. Gold is close to its recent all-time high at $1,436 per ounce currently. The Chinese
premier has stated that Chinese growth will be led by domestic consumption and that
controlling inflation will be a policy priority. The Shanghai Composite index of Chinese shares
is firmer this morning.
Bernard McAlinden +353 1 611 5933 [email protected]
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Footnotes
1.
Ratios where share price is an input are calculated using (a) the respective fiscal year average share price for historic years
and (b) the current share price for current and future years.
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