dba-working paper - Hervé Saulnier Conseil

Transcription

HENLEY MANAGEMENT COLLEGE
ESC
GRENOBLE
associate : Hervé Saulnier
DBA 9-4 WORKING PAPER
WORKING PAPER
A REVIEW OF FACTORS INFLUENCING THE
FRENCH WINTER SPORTS HOLIDAY MARKET
ESC GRENOBLE
22/10/12
PAGE.2
© Ce document est la propriété exclusive de Hervé SAULNIER et ne peut être diffusé ou copié sans son accord.
ESC GRENOBLE
Context of the research
As the most popular world tourist destination, France has developed know-how
in this specific service industry. By its economic weight, tourism is the third
industry after building and agriculture and before manufacturing of electric and
electronic devices. The ski resorts are major participants since the 60’s with gross
added value of 186,7 billions FF.
Since the end of the 80’s, the 442 French tourist skiing resorts have been
experiencing poor financial results. 45 have even been declared bankrupt and
have been placed under governmental control. The government launched several
campaigns since 1990 to help ski resorts in a financial crisis or in a poor marketing
position.
Of course situations are very different from one resort to another as pointed by J.F.
Lory 1990:
• Fifteen are major contributors to the overall turnover (La Plagne, Val Thorens,
Les Arcs, Tignes, Val D'Isère, Méribel, Courchevel, Les Menuires, Deux Alpes,
Alpes D'Huez, Avoriaz, Chamonix, Châtel) and propose 29% of all the
accommodation capacity
• Forty five other resorts of medium size offers 36% of available accommodation.
• There are one hundred and four small resorts with 28% of capacity.
• And two hundred and eighty
snow stadiums with 7% of accommodation
which have been originally created for the leisure of neighbouring cities and for
the teachnig of skiing. While generally at a low altitude they face snow
problems and poor variety of slopes. They are directly competing with the
major resorts for their traditional customers who demand more varied and
difficult slopes. Because clients possess a car they can easily go to the biggest
resorts.
Current areas of research
A lot of research is made in the matter of geography, development economics and
22/10/12
PAGE.3
ESC GRENOBLE
consumer behaviour to explain and to lead the development of the resorts. Few
management researchers are involved in this area in France. This situation is
different in the USA where marketing and are the major subject of research. We
agree with G.Turpin 1989 in his analysis of the management of French resorts.
« You have to consider the resort as a self managed aggregate. .. To manage a
resort is an ambition not so far from pretentiousness... You need more a coach
than a chairman ».
Managing a self-managed aggregate leads to the research done in the matter of
co-operative alliances (A.L.Larson 1989, S.D.Hunt 1996) or the commitment-trust
theory of relationship marketing (R.Morgan & S.D.Hunt 1994). Ski resorts (and
more generally tourist equipment) are very unique cases of service industry which
need heavy investment. Skilifts generate 1 FF. of turnover with 2 FF. of assets
(SNTF 1996) and an accommodation valued at 400 000 FF. makes 5 tourists within
15 weeks a year spend a general turnover (except skilifts) of (5x15x 2200 FF.) 165
000 FF. (SEMA METRA 1992).
As we see below, management of the resorts is responsible for the current
difficulties. Bad choices of investment, inadequate credit engagement and
unsuitable organisation for the variation in numbers of visitors are some of the
major errors in management described in articles and theses that deal with the ski
resorts crisis. We do not want to study the way towards better management in this
paper, but it seems to us that it is necessary to identify limiting factors of the
market. This information could help regulation and adaptation of the
management process.
22/10/12
PAGE.4
ESC GRENOBLE
22/10/12
PAGE.5
ESC GRENOBLE
Goal of the working paper
Our goal in this paper is to point out the lack of analysis and causality links
between limiting factors, driving forces, and the fluctuations of the market. We
first made a literature review of the factors of the ten year crisis. We see that the
general concept of crisis is sub-divided in four area : structural, functional,
demand, factual.
Development economics has produce large studies on the structural and
functional problems of the resorts (cf. chapter 1). The thesis of J.Perret 1989 makes
a complete review of the mechanism used for the development of the sites. This
branch is very active and makes a good contribution to tourism knowledge.
All authors identify demand and underlying factors. They do it in two ways.
Economics researchers use logical deduction and work on the components of the
resort. The ski resort is made for skiing practice ergo the snow is a key factor of
success. Marketing researchers use behavioural studies to identify the choice
criteria of the customers. This is one of the more active area of research in the
management of resorts.
Research impact
We notice that little research is conducted to prove the reliability of variables in
the variation of the market. Many of those variables are identified through
assumption or logical deduction. The quantitative studies on customer motivation
give a more precise idea, but we know that there are differences between
perception and personal evaluation of criteria and the general behaviour of the
mass of customers.
We restrict this research to the evolution of the French winter sports holiday
market. We do not take into account the foreign skiers coming in France. There
are no relevant data over a long period and they do not exceed 15-20% of the stays
in the French resorts. We will assume that the study conducted on the French
tourist can be applied to the foreign people coming in France.
22/10/12
PAGE.6
ESC GRENOBLE
Our goal in this paper is to point out the lack of analysis and causality link
between driving and limiting factors and the fluctuations of the market. Doing
that we can open the field for further research that can give more robust bases to
manage resorts. Our future aim could be to identify the key factors explain on
demand and underlying trends of the market, and to measure correlation.
Management impact
What is in store for the future of this holiday and leisure industry? One answer to
the puzzle could be provided by identifying influential external factors on the
winter skiing holidays. This should help forecast, to a certain extent, events for
the coming decade. The rules for competition could be very different regarding
the nature of the limiting factors.
According to R.Perdue 1996 managers have to put efforts on the following aspect
of their mix:
• level of quality and product differentiation
• efficiency of targeting the markets
• type, method and cost of sales
• price policy, advertising...
The aim is to identify external influencing factors -acting as driving forces- that
can explain past variations of attendance during the winter season. Giving this
evidence we can help the resort managers to overcome them and to forecast their
organisationan needs.
22/10/12
PAGE.7
ESC GRENOBLE
22/10/12
PAGE.8
ESC GRENOBLE
Chapter 1: Crisis, what crisis ?
1.1 - the nature of the crisis
The ski tourist industry is in crisis but of what kind ? The oldest identification has
been pointed out by F.Di Ruzza and B. Gerbier in « Ski en crise » 1977 presses
universitaires de Grenoble ISBN 2706101113. In their case they show that the
change that led from an agricultural based mountain to a tourist developed
mountain has transformed the recruitment and status of ski teacher and
champion. They therefore identify a crisis that comes from the unsuitable nature
of the services offered in resorts relative to the demand. They predict a shortage in
the demand for skiing vacation in the short term.
1987/88 and 1988/89 were two winter very poor in snow falls. This has been the
official beginning of reports evaluating the nature and the factors of the crisis.
These events made it more visible but it was in the latent state since 1985 and has
lasted until now.
We start with the systemic analysis done by D.Clary 19989. His major contribution
is to give a general view of the interaction that helps us to detail limiting factors.
He identifies three levels of systems that interact.
• The first one is the resort system. The combination of private interest that can be
opposed to general functioning of the resort may result in a functional crisis.
• The second level market and resort system may dysfunction when attitude and
motivations of the customers are not according to the resort offers. This can
generate a market crisis.
• At the third level (resort and area system) there can be a crisis of relationship
due to excess offer or political pressure on development. This crisis generates a
process that will lead from a regional system (North Alps) to a technical system
(club med) and destroy the resort system.
22/10/12
PAGE.9
ESC GRENOBLE
22/10/12
PAGE.10
ESC GRENOBLE
Table 1 : systemic analysis of the resorts D.Clary
22/10/12
PAGE.11
terrorism, technology, ...
:
age,
associate : Hervé SaulnierConsumers
System : resort
earning, behaviours
and its market
Dealing
network
ESC GRENOBLE
DBA 9-4 WORKING C
PAPER
o
m
p
e
ti
t
o
r
System
resort
:
and
its
interaction
sytem : resort
and its area
22/10/12
PAGE.12
ESC GRENOBLE
This theory gives a global vision of the system. We want now to explore those sublevels : level 1 - resort system, level 2 - market and resort system, level 3 - resort
and area system The works we find are structured under different approach of the
crisis. Authors use generally many point of view to carry out their work.
1.2 - Crisis of offer and resort differentiation factors
In the USA, Targeting has become important only in the last years (Dallas 1995,
Marcella 1996, Perdue 1996). According to these authors the crisis can emerge
from a lack in the offer. The differenciation approach deals with the level 2 and 3.
The difficulties of the resorts give room to build competitive advantage. Resorts
may engage in more target oriented strategies. But managers seem to have
difficulties making a choice and to customise their resorts. There is not any
evidence that targeting can increase the size of the global market while there is
evidence that it increases the market share.
The applicability of the marketing-mix concept to ski resorts is difficult. We
present some elements of the Mix that can be used to be more competitive. Those
element are compiled from the following works : R.Knatou 1989, L.Blanchard
1996, Pascal 1993, Moutinho 1985 .
• New kinds of glide (carving, surfing, squale, etc.) and more general innovation
in concept of service and liveliness. The development of artificial snow is
promoted but we are not sure that it can create a competitive advantage while
this is a basic demand of customers.
• The landscape doesn’t make great differences between competitors. The
architecture varies from one area to another and from one owner to another.
Activities and shops belong to private entrepreneurs. It looks very complicated
to harmonise the production of the service.
• Lowering the level of price in order to attract less fortunate people is a solution
that comes typically in matured market (J.Perret 1993). We are not sure that this
a long term solution according to R.Perdue 1996.
• The channel of distribution can be of some help but the best one reaches 17% of
the customers. In fact channels are very diverse except in some integrated
resorts. French people so rarely use travel agents. In the USA travel agents are
22/10/12
PAGE.13
ESC GRENOBLE
the key to nonresident skiers (NSAA 1993).
• The advertising and image of the resorts are also promoted as competitive
advantages to the targeted market (R.Perdue 1993). We do not totally agree
with him with because medium size resorts do not have enough money to pay
TV or radio spots. Furthermore, 75% of the destinations are chosen through
personal recommendations and word-of-mouth (Minos survey 1995). The
impact of commercials is not certain for medium or small resorts unless in the
long term. The return on investment seems very hazardous. As L.Montinho
1985 we agree that there is still a « lack in the determinant of repeat visitation
and the tourist word-of-mouth communication ».
It is interesting to notice that this approach of differentiation is illustrated by the
clustering of the resorts more focused on level 2 of the Clary table.
• SEATM classified the resorts through their generation (first, second, third).
• SCARAFIOTTI 1992 makes a multi-criterial approach on characteristics of wide
or short range of shops, , altitude, skilift, ... which gives 6 clusters.
• The last one is used by skilift owners and make the difference through size of
skiing area and Moment of Power of the lifts: leaders, isolated major resorts and
other small resorts.
There are also three classifications of ski resorts and there are four different
classifications for the consumers which do not seem perfectly related.
This clustering does not give a clear view of its usefulness in time ofcrisis.
Otherwise authors would have try to make clusters corelate with the probability
of surviving. The first (third generation) and last classifications (leaders and
majors resorts) are groups containing the leading resorts. They also maybe the
strongest. But the clustering was not made for that purpose. Differentiation
between the resorts cannot explain the crisis. We close this area of investigation
since it cannot help us in our goal. The marketing mix approach is until now more
focused on internal competition either in France or USA.
1.3 - Analysis of reasons for the crisis and proposition of clustering
The main distinction made in the works of E.Flamert 1989, Pascal 1993, Lory 1990,
22/10/12
PAGE.14
ESC GRENOBLE
L.Blanchard 1996 is between structural crisis and demand crisis. Structural crisis
deals with the level 1 and 3 described by D.Clary. Studies done by the government
have been very deep in this area. It comes also directly in the fields of research of
development economics.
We feel that the structural crisis must be divided in two parts.
• On one hand one should consider the elements that build the skeleton of the
resort. Managers cannot act precisely and in a short term on that problem.
Furthermore the level of investment maybe prohibiting any change. We can call
this structural crisis.
• On the other hand you can have adaptation to the demand that remains in line
with existing development. The dysfunction noticed needs little change to be
corrected. It comes in the field of decisions that may be engaged. It comes more
from a functional crisis than structural one.
The study in demand crisis shows two kind of criteria.
• On one hand the controllable and underlying change in consumption. The
different studies done by SEMA-METRA 1987, BIPE CONSEIL 1991,
COFREMCA 1993 show clearly a great evolution in the behaviour and attitude
of the customers. COFREMCA identified six sociocultural streams that are
unsatisfied by the actual context of winter sports holidays. These changes in
consumption can be followed by the resort at little costs. We can notice those
criteria as factors of the demand crisis.
• On the other hand the uncontrollable factors of variation in the volume of
demand - as the lack of snow, economical crisis- are factors of what we will call
the factual crisis.
We made a empirircal investigation through the three level described in the
model. We analyse that researchers did not really follow this approach in their
investigation. The researchs are merely conducted in one academic disciplin while
22/10/12
PAGE.15
ESC GRENOBLE
Clary’s approach is transversal. We build our on referential for our investigation.
The building of four cluster appears to us as a new way of pointing out the
previous work. We see in the following chapter that it make sense to identify a
cluster of homogenous factors that have not been investigated out of a pure logical
approach.
22/10/12
PAGE.16
ESC GRENOBLE
22/10/12
PAGE.17
ESC GRENOBLE
Chapter 2 : clustering of variables by their nature
After specifying four different aspects of crisis we can explore in detail the limiting
factors and the driving forces at work in these clusters.
2.1 - First cluster : factors of the structural crisis.
This deals with the economic and political interaction inside the resorts. It is inbetween the system of D.Clary ( level 1 and 3). These factors and forces of the
structural crisis are described in the works of E.Flamert 1989, Pascal 1993, Lory
1990, L.Blanchard 1996. There is a great similarity in the analysis made by the
researchers. It is one of the major initiatives of the French government. These
factors are defined by means of quantitative survey based on balance, interviews,
statistics. Those elements are robust. The key elements are:
• lack of initial capital and a high level of credit as a consequence
• unsuitability of the financial system that leads to a vicious circle (skilifts
financed by the development of real assets)
• the shortness of the holidays period (12 weeks) that makes any climatic incident
very dangerous and the profitability hazardous (J.Perret 1992).
• an inhere frailty due to a service industry that need heavy investment and that
cannot be stocked or consumed in an other place and with low variation of
production. The investments are made to accept a level of activity which is
reached only during 5 weeks a year.
2.2 - Second cluster : factors of adaptation of the product to the demand or the
functional crisis
According to E.Flament the adaptation capabilities of the resorts are low because
of the investment weight. But the COFREMCA 1992 or P.Py 1996 show that
adaptation requested by customers could be satisfied by the nature of activities
and the style of liveliness in the resort. The evolution of consumer behaviour is a
permanent characteristic of the market. It is a permanent characteristic, not by its
nature but by the fact that it is a continuous evolution. The resort managers are
extremely loath to make such adaptations and also to differentiate from each
22/10/12
PAGE.18
ESC GRENOBLE
other. This is a sign for us of the lack in management capabilities.
F.Gerbaux 1989 draws out the weakness in learning and training in this sector.
This touches highly seasonal workers but also private entrepreneurs who have
difficulties adapting themselves to the new attitude and behaviour of the
customers.
In the Lory and Pascal reports, this subject is not directly treated but mayors and
government technical operators in many cases are guilty of ignoring the basic
rules of the market that is adaptation. They use a fixed development model that
ignores the obligations of adaptation.
They also prove that resorts do not have reliable data to know how many people
came, their satisfaction or dissatisfaction . This is a lack in the management ability
that limits adaptation. This presents difficulties in passing from a developing
period to a stable one, sign of a mature market.
We can summarise the different factors concerned by the functional crisis :
• adaptation of style of holidays, of services and liveliness
• training and education of manager and entrepreneur
• training and education of seasonal workers
• system of information dedicated to management
• the transport problems (traffic jam)
• use of media by the resort to manage communication on snow, accident, etc.
2.3 - Third cluster : The controllable and underlying change in consumption and
the demand crisis
In this cluster we have to split researchers in two kind. The first group works on
the theory of tourist demand. The second one works on behaviour and motivation
of the tourist.
The research done before the context of crisis of 1988 has concentrated more on a
general analysis of what creates the motivation of departures on vacation from a
macro economic point of view.
22/10/12
PAGE.19
ESC GRENOBLE
Baretje René , Defert Pierre (1972) concluded that winter sport demand is
dependant on demographic pressure, urbanisation degree, length of leisure time,
length of paid vacations, earning of social classes.
Magnone Guido 1982 identified a restriction in the demand and a shortage in the
length of vacation. He assumed that it has the consequence of raising the cost of
snow vacation.
Lanquar Robert (1983) completed the list of Baretje by introducing variables that
were orienting the demand on targeted tourism :
Relative level of price (as exchange rate and cost of transportation) that influence
the choice of site. He introduced also internal factors that mean that he took care
of the evolution of the accommodation offer, lifts, sale network.
The preceding authors work on the general structure of purchase. This paragraph
deals with tourist behaviour.
Three nation-wide studies were ordered by the tourism ministry (SEMA-METRA
1987, BIPE CONSEIL 1991, COFREMCA 1993). The most important tendencies
shown are the evolution in psychographic motivations and behaviour for winter
holidays vacations. Those study are showing the same direction as their American
counterpart L.Moutinho 1985, Marcella 1996, Perdue 1996. All these researchers
work on the criterion of choice at an individual level.
After looking at their generation we can summarise the individual criteria that can
become trends in two groups :
22/10/12
PAGE.20
ESC GRENOBLE
22/10/12
PAGE.21
ESC GRENOBLE
first group of economic criteria
• demographic pressure,
• urbanisation degree,
• length of leisure time,
• length of paid vacations and dates of school holidays,
• earning of social classes.
• Relative level of price on an internal market
These second group of criteria deals with sociocultural changes
• satisfaction feed-back on accommodation offer, lifts, sales network.
• personality
• personal taste
• distribution of age
• lifestyle
• perceived role set
• behaviour
2.4 - Fourth cluster : The uncontrollable factors of variation in the volume of
demand and the factual crisis
According with the figure 1 of D.Clary we deal in this paragraph with what are
called external factors and describe the environment (economic, laws, technology,
sociocultural) according to Kotler 1988.
Those elements can be either driving forces or limiting factors depending on their
own logic. L.Moutinho in his figure 9 - a vacation tourist behaviour modelincluded what he calls the « internalised environmental influences ». P.Py 1996
does not include these kind of criteria on the « driving forces of tourist
consumption » P.32. . As the other consumer observers, he take the climatic factors
as a criteria of choice for the destination but not as a determining factors for the
departure.
The group constituted by development economics researchers that try to
22/10/12
PAGE.22
ESC GRENOBLE
understand the reasons for the crisis analyse those kind of factors. Their analyses
are based on deduction and logical construct (E.Flamert 1989, Pascal 1993, Lory
1990, L.Blanchard 1996 or J.Perret 1993). Their main remarks are that lack of snow
is responsible but it may be balanced by artificial snow,
M.Delphino 1994 in his work on Mediterranean tourism noticse that « sun is a key
factor for the bathing tourist as snow is for winter sport holidays ».
The economic difficulties that generate a decrease in purchasing power,
unemployment and a lack of confidence, both factors that lead people to change
their habits and ways of thinking J.Perret 1993 .
Terrorism or natural disaster as a fatal avalanche P.Py 1993
The increase in the quality of competitors, their commercial pressure and the
relative level of price due to exchange or parity fluctuations are limiting factors
that are identified by the different kinds of researchers.
We can summarise the list of uncontrollable factors :
• climatic factors (sun and snow)
• economic
difficulties
(purchasing
power,
confidence
in
the
future,
unemployment)
• Personal security preoccupation (terrorism, natural disaster)
• unexpected competitive advantage to external competitors (commercial
pressure, relative level of price.
22/10/12
PAGE.23
ESC GRENOBLE
22/10/12
PAGE.24
ESC GRENOBLE
Chapter 3 : Factors that need deeper analysis
In the preceding chapter we group factors on the basis of the aspect of crisis they
can explain. In this chapter we go deeper in our clustering approach. We can
determine if there is some lack in analyses and causality links between limiting
factors, driving forces, and the fluctuations of the market.
3.1 - reliability of the factors identified
• 3.1.1 - In the structural crisis . Managers cannot act precisely and in a short term
on that problem. This is a matter largely treated by development economics
researchers.
The economic characteristics of skiing resorts are inhertly frail arising from
service industry that needs heavy investment and where the product cannot be
stocked or consumed in an other place and with low variation of production
and an unsuitability of the financial system. These factors has been analysed by
government surveys and case studies. The conclusions are almost the same and
researchers agree on the grounded reasons.
the shortness of the holidays period (12 weeks) that makes any climatic incident
very dangerous and the profitability hazardous (J.Perret 1992).
No study has been made on the impact of those factors on the market. Until
now tourists did not suffer any impact of that situation. Thanks to public
financing, all services of the resorts have been assured. We do not take these
factors into account for our future development.
• 3.1.2 - In the functional crisis : It concerns adaptation to the demand that
remains in line with existing development. The dysfunction noticed needs little
change to be corrected. It comes in the field of decisions that may be engaged
because it is necessary to increase the competitive level of each resort.
The system of information dedicated to management and the adaptation to the
style of holidays, of services and liveliness needed, are important in the long
term. These factors have been identified by development economics researchers
22/10/12
PAGE.25
ESC GRENOBLE
as being the solution. There is no evidence that it can generate variation in the
demand from one year to another.
The need for training and education of managers, entrepreneurs and seasonal
workers is neither demanded by the concerned people nor by the tourist. This
evaluation is done on the basis of the errors that lead to the structural crisis.
This may be the result of poor management but it is also the responsibility of
government technical advisors that recommended ( and promoted ) one way of
thinking. We have no evidence that the need for training has an impact on the
market fluctuation.
We think that the factors of the two preceding paragraphs have an influence but
only on a medium or long range. We think they influence word-to-mouth
recommendations but there no evidence of the nature and timing of the impact.
The transport problem and mainly the traffic jams is a very important
dissatisfaction criterion, 92% of the tourists are coming by car . But this is a
usual problem that affects also summer vacations at the seashore. We do not
know its general impact mainly in the process of feed-back, but the
COFREMCA study 1993 and the last INSEE study 1994 do not notice it as a
significant reason not to come back.
The use of media by the resorts should lead to a better management on the
communication on snow, accident, etc. We rate factor at the same level as the
training. Media can not create snow but of course it has an impact on the way
falls are announced on individual behaviour according to M.Delphino 1996 or
L.Moutinho 1985. The nature of its impact on the level of stay is not clearly
determined in a statistical way
22/10/12
PAGE.26
ESC GRENOBLE
22/10/12
PAGE.27
ESC GRENOBLE
• 3.1.3 - In the demand crisis :
We analyse the controllable and underlying change in consumption. These
changes in consumption can be followed by the resort at little costs. We can notice
those criteria as factors of.
The first group of economic criteria is composed of demographic pressure,
urbanisation degree, length of leisure time, length of paid vacations and dates of
school holidays, earnings of social classes and the relative level of price on an
internal market
All of these economic criteria identified can decrease or increase the demand but
in the medium term. Demographic pressure will not change from one day to
another. Length of leisure time remains stable with five weeks of paid vacations
since 1984. We have not found an econometric model that gives an explanation
between rate of stay and economic factors. But we assume that one needs external
cause to make a change. As an exemple a economic crack is needed to to move
down to 20% the average earnings of middle class workers. There is one exception
as noticed by J.Perret 1993 which are « dates of school holidays ». This last criteria
can be a factor with a fast effect from one year to another.
The second group of individual factors includes satisfaction feed-back on the
accommodation offer, lifts, sales network and other key factors of personality,
attitude, motives, personal taste, age, lifestyle, perceived role set, behaviour.
This second group of criteria deals with sociocultural changes and individual
behaviour. Lifestyle and behaviour need usually decades to evolve. They cannot
generate a drop in demand in one year. But they can build a trend adverse to the
ski resorts if they do not take into account these evolutions. The studies done are
based on quantitative and qualitative surveys. The knowledge of individual
behaviour is clearly determinant. But this gives no indications concerning volume
of market trends generated. We are not sure that one sociocultural demand
generates a correlated business demand.
• 3.1.4 - In the factual crisis : the uncontrollable factors of variation in the volume
of demand - such as the lack of snow, economic crisisThe climatic factors (sun and snow) are unanimously pointed out as responsible
22/10/12
PAGE.28
ESC GRENOBLE
for variations. They are fast effect factors by nature. METEO France forecasts an
increase of 1,8° for year 2020. This slow effect will affect the trend of the market
but until now variations remain in usual observed tolerances.
The economic context showing a growth in unemployment within the middle
class could provide one significant factor towards a decrease in attendance.
Whereas, the creation of a fifth holiday week in 1984 might have enabled more
people to take advantage of winter holidays. The main variables named by the
researchers indicating a difficult economic context are purchasing power,
confidence in the future, unemployment. We have not found a correlation research
into the correlation between the trend of the market and those criteria. Over the
last ten years the economic climte did not have a huge crisis or crash. We classify it
as a slow effect factor even if a sudden event could generate a fast one.
Personal security preoccupations (terrorism, natural disaster) are fast effect events.
There are no academic studies on that but examples are frequent and evident such
as Egypt, Algeria or Paris -30% of decrease in attending during the period of
terrorism threat-.
Unexpected competitive advantage to external competitors, like unexpected
commercial pressure or relative level of price due to parity fluctuation, can
generate variations in one year. The growth of competition is normally a slow
effect factor of the market. All competitors face the same constraint in their
development. We think that only an important parity fluctuation between two
direct and important competitors can really be classified as a fast effect.
22/10/12
PAGE.29
ESC GRENOBLE
22/10/12
PAGE.30
ESC GRENOBLE
3.2 - Conclusions on our goal
Our goal in this paper is to point out the lack of analyses and causality link
between driving and limiting factors and the fluctuations of the market.
We first made a new clustering of variables coming from multidisciplinary
research. The definition of the nature of crisis is more global and in the same time
observed simultaneously from four different point of view : Structural, functional,
demand and factual . Doing that we notice that few observations were combined
to research the causality link between the market and those factors.
Our second task was to select between slow effect factors that can act on trends
and fast effect factors that can explain variations. This distinction appears very
important for the management of resorts. It is a heavy investment industry.
Trends are crucial to make investment in the right direction. If we can create
advance signals of variation, this can help to correct the effect of an unexpected
increase or decrease.
Further research could be to identify key factors that explain demand and
underlying trends of the market, and to measure their correlation. Doing that we
can open the field for further research that can give more robust bases to manage
resorts.
3.2.1 - The need for the study of fast effect driving forces
We can distinguish between the trend and the annual variations of the market. We
assume that the trend is explained by slow effects factors and annual variations
can be due to fast effect factors.
One of the major problems for management of the resorts is the limited variation
of production as soon as the season has started. If we are able to identify early
factors that can allowed an anticipation of the variation from the general trend, we
can help to save lots of money. This adaptation can be done in two ways : the first
one by keeping equipement closed and the second one by using more incentives to
22/10/12
PAGE.31
ESC GRENOBLE
balance the negative effects of the limiting factors. The choice of factors can be as
follows :
a - climatic factors
Of course this factor should have a great influence on the purchase of ski holidays.
The level of snow should work as a threshold factor instead of a correlated factor.
If the snow falls are too high it can even be a limiting factor. No researchers have
studied the impact of sunny days on winter holyday. We think this can be as
important as for Mediterranean tourism.
Those two elements need a correlation research with resort attending level.
b - Security and safety
Personal security and safety preoccupation (terrorism, natural disaster) must be
considered. We can study their impact on the level of stays.
c - Competition
unexpected competition due to a exchange fluctuation can also be analysed
regarding the evolution of exotic destinations that are largely promoted during the
cold season. For Lory and Pascal these destinations appear as important direct
competitors
d - The dates and length of school vacations in France
This criteria is regularly pointed out by the professional press. It is true that the
dates are regularly moved each time a new education minister is named. We have
to measure the real correlation of the length during the winter season, the
correlation of the dates with snow falls or sun and the grouping of areas of
vacations that can generate a concentrated demand in few weeks.
3.2 - Economic implication from lack of knowledge of limiting factors
Researchers have not clearly identified factors whose variations prove the
fluctuations in the French market. That could mean there is no theoretical, limit to
an increase in the market except the accommodations capacity or the desire of
people to spend holidays in the ski resorts.
22/10/12
PAGE.32
ESC GRENOBLE
We suspect that the variation of the purchasing power can be an economic limit
because potential customers may not have enough earnings to go. But the
economic situation for the coming years should not provide further purchasing
power. The confidence level and purchasing power should remain down in the
immediate future. Economic predictions, creation of the EURO, will keep France
under high economic constraints. It seems unlikely that people interested in
mountain resorts, but without sufficient income, will have any higher a standard
of living over the next few years. These people cannot contribute to market
growth.
The renewal of lift equipment has remained stable for the previous two or three
years, and the "lift stock" is sufficient to cope with a 30% growth without reducing
comfort. We are unable to speculate on accommodation, however the recent poor
attendance suggests an existing but unemployed capacity The Haute-Savoie
tourism board calculated an average 28% of filling of accommodations during the
last three winter seasons 1994/95 1995/96, 1996/97. Both can also appear as slow
effect factors.
The snow should have impact, maybe a threshold effect. But it is not clearly
identified. In the long term (year 2020), if meteorological predictions on global
warming become true, the lowering of snow falls might happen , but we will not
take this hypothesis into account for the present analysis. The sunny or rainy days
can generate a demand for holiday. They can be fast effect factors
In fact if the studied factors do not lead to any growth limitations, how can we
explain the flat tangent over the period from 1986 to 1994. The competition effects
analysed above are currently described in marketing literature as signs of a
matured market. If we are unable to find limited external factors, the stagnation of
the number of French consumers must be due to the fact that there are no more
relative non-consumers. If there are, then their income must be so low and the
economic crisis so hard that they can be classified as absolute non-consumers for
22/10/12
PAGE.33
ESC GRENOBLE
the coming years.
In this hypothesis, we could conclude the maturity of this market based on the
length of stay for French winter sports. The major economic effects of that
situation could be the following according to J.Lendrevie, D.Lindon R.Laufer in
Mercator 1983 P.135-136.
•
Disappearance of the weakest product and competitor.
This would normally be the case, however many ski resorts are managed by the
district and it would be almost impossible for a Mayor to justify to his community
the closing of this, sometimes unique, local economic activity.
•
Lowering of prices.
Lift ticket prices have remained constant over recent years. The major effect of
strong competition would be the dropping of prices. On the bases of the SNTF
sources, the best attendance year was 1985. We can therefore assume that the best
price was at this level meaning, on average, 20% less than today.
•
Increasing commercial incentives.
Sales structures are very rare in ski resorts in comparison with other businesses
generating a similar turnover. We can expect an increase in the employment of
professional sales staff.
•
Increase customer satisfaction.
This can be achieved with quality products, architecture, improved comfort in
payment, purchase and reservation services.
•
Segmentation of the market.
Based on different meeting with representatives of resorts or consultant We think
that no resorts have adopted a segmentation or customer targeting policy. This
would be one solution for maintaining high prices and margins. These resorts
would work more on their competitive advantages as opposed to their general
22/10/12
PAGE.34
ESC GRENOBLE
qualities which means nothing.
•
Improved investment policy.
This appears to be a consequence of the above stated comments. Managers will
develop better purchasing techniques, not necessarily on general quality, but on
the right level of quality and efficiency required.
22/10/12
PAGE.35
ESC GRENOBLE
22/10/12
PAGE.36
ESC GRENOBLE
bibliography
1. Baretje René , Defert Pierre (1972 : "aspects économiques du tourisme" Bergerlevraut, l'administration nouvelle paris 1972, 355 p
2. Lanquar Robert (1983): "l'économie du tourisme", que sais-je PUF 127 p.
3. Balseinte R "les stations de sport d'hiver en france" revue de géographie alpine
1959 tome XLVI pp 129-181
4. Balseinte R "le nouveau classement typologique des stations de sport d'hiver"
Aménagement et montagne N°8 décembre-janvier 1977 pp32-37 et N°9 févriermars 1977 pp52-53
5. Magnone Guido : les besoins de loisir en montagne rapport au ministre du
temps libre . la documentation française paris décembre 1982 150 p
6. L.Moutinho « consumer behaviour in tourism » European Journal of Marketing
21.10 P.5-44 1986
7. SEMA-METRA 1987, National survey of tourist motivations,
8. BIPE CONSEIL 1991, National survey of tourist motivation
9. Bonnel&Morin 1988,
10.Ski France 1994
11.P.Arnaud & E.Dufau « la neige de culture » mémoire de maîtrise Université
Pierre Mendès Frenc Grenoble 1995
12.Debas 1995
13.COFREMCA 1993 and CCA 1990
14.Bonnel 1987,
15.Entretiens de la montagne 1994+1995,
16.J.Scarafiotti « Potentiel d’attractivité des stations de sport d’hiver : une analyse
typologique » Note de recherche N°92-06 du GEREG octobre 1992.
17.Dallas 1995,
18.M.Marcella, U.Yucelt « services marketing in the lodging industry : an
empirical investigation » Journal of Travel Research spring 1996 P.32-38,
19.R.R.Perdue « Target market selection and marketing strategy : the colorado
downhill skiing industry » in Journal of Travel Research spring 1996 p.39-46
20.S.Weber « Trends in tourism segmentation » in Marketing & research today
22/10/12
PAGE.37
ESC GRENOBLE
may 1992 P.116-123
21.J.Thépot « la modélisation enscience de gestion ou l’irruption du tiers » Revue
Française de Gestion Janvier-février 1995 P.66-70
22.INSEE (governmental agency for economical statistics) Annual Survey on the
French holiday’s),
23.SNTF (Federation of lift owners) Annual buletin,
24.G.Mermet « Francoscopie 1995 » éditions Larousse ISBN 2-03-503094-3 436p
25.SEATM (ministry of tourism),
26.METEO FRANCE (French meteorological office).
27.P.Py « le tourisme : un phénomène économique » les études d la documentation
française 1996, ISBN 2-11-003530-7
28.« stations de sprots d’hiver: difficultés conjoncturelles ou structurelles »
Association Nationale des Elus de la Montagne congrès d’Albertville 1991
29.J.Perret « le developpement touristique local : les stations de sports d’hiver »
thèse de doctorat CEMAGREFF éditions ISBN 2-85362-370-X 01994 337 pages
30.J.Perret « la crise des stations de sports d’hiver » L’isère économique et sociale
N°3 1993 P.59-65
31.Mission « problèmes structurels des statons de moyenne montagne » Rapport
R.Pascal au ministre de l’équipement, des transports et du tourisme 1993
32.L.Blanchard « les modes d’adaptation des stations de sports d’hiver » mémoire
DESS université Pierre Mendès France Grenoble 1996
33.E.Flament « tourisme et crise :matériaux pour une réflexion » in Dossiers de la
Revue de Géographie Alpine N°6 1991 , 18° colloque de Grenoble 1989.
34. R.Knafou « crise du tourisme dans les montagnes françaises : un système qui a
fait ses preuves et son temps » in Dossiers de la Revue de Géographie Alpine
N°6 1991 , 18° colloque de Grenoble 1989.
35. J.P.Guerin « motivations touristiques et crise des sports d’hiver ? » in Dossiers
de la Revue de Géographie Alpine N°6 1991 , 18° colloque 1989.
36.F.Gerbaux « entreprises et emplois touristiques : les enjeux face à la crise de
demain » in Dossiers de la Revue de Géographie Alpine N°6 1991 , 18° colloque
de Grenoble 1989.
37. D.Clary « le tourisme et la crise, ou la mutation du système touristique » in
22/10/12
PAGE.38
ESC GRENOBLE
Dossiers de la Revue de Géographie Alpine N°6 1991 , 18° colloque de Grenoble
1989.
38.O.Souveyran « à la croisée du tourisme international et de la gestion de
l’environnement local : la crise? l’exemple de la martinique » in Dossiers de la
Revue de Géographie Alpine N°6 1991 , 18° colloque de Grenoble 1989.
39.F.Di ruzza & B.Gerbier « ski en crise 1977 Presse universitaires de Grenoble
ISBN 27061101113
40.M.Delphino « le tourisme en méditerranée : situation et prespectives
économiques du tourisme » thèse de doctorat université d’Aix 3 1994
41.Starmberg « Studienkreis für Tursismus » im Urlaubreisen P.30 1986
42.T.Trove « tourism fights an identity crisi » The European May 5 1995 N°260
P.19
43.G.Haedrich, F.Gussek, T.Tomczak « Differenzierte Marktbearbeitung und
Markterfolg imReiseveranstlatermarkt der Bundesrepublik Deutschland »
inMarketing ZFPHeft 1.I Quartal 1989 P.11-18
44.J.C.Fuhrer « do consumer behave as the lyfe-cycle permanent-income theory of
concumption predicts ? » New England Economic Review september/october
1992 p.3-14
45.W.D.Shaw « searching for the opportunity cost of an individual’stime » in
Lands Economics february 1992 P.107-115
46.J.C.McCune « a downhill battle : Ski resorts fight for survival » in Management
Review February 1994 P.38-45
47.S.G.Amin, A.F.Hagen, C.R.Sterrett « Cooperating to achieve competitive
advantage in a global economy : review and trends » in Advanced Management
Journal autumn 1995 V60 N04 P.37-42
J.Lendrevie, D.Lindon R.Laufer in Mercator 1983 P.135-136
22/10/12
PAGE.39

dba-working paper - Hervé Saulnier Conseil

Transcription

Documents pareils

Grenoble INP - Ecole Doctorale for Earth, Space and Environmental

Higher performance materials for extreme environments

Hervé biausser, director of the École Centrale Paris, the new

Magnetic Random Access Memories (MRAM) have long been

cosys-dc 2017 - ECHOSCIENCES

PROCURATION/ POWER OF ATTORNEY

Via Ferrata on the Bastille fortress - HEP 2011

Thermal batteries and security

Lecture of Graeme Milton, University of Utah on