Règlementation et modèle de prévision de difficultués bancaires en

REGLEMENTATION ET MODELE DE PREVISION DE DIFFICULTES
BANCAIRES EN ZONE CEMAC1
Duclaux SOUPMO BADJIO2
HEC - Management school-university of LIEGE
Dept. of Accounting, Finance and Law
Rue Louvrex, 14, B-4000 LIEGE BELGIUM
Phone number: +32494105596
Email: [email protected]
Abstract
The present study aims to explore banking supervision and regulation in Central Africa and
propose a model to predict banking difficulties. Such a model does not exist yet in the literature,
due to the difficult access to banking data. Inspiring by the methodology used in studies published
by Beaver (1966), Altman (1977), Bardos (1988), and Godlewski (2004), we have succeeded to
build a model with central African specificities. Used variables are a mixture of ratios drawn of
literature and those which are related to banking management in CEMAC zone. Having chosen
the most relevant variables, we used a Logit model; the results indicate good statistics of
significance and a rate of reclassification of 85%.
Keywords : Banking regulation and supervision, Central Africa, Logit model
1
CEMAC : Communauté Economique et Monétaire de l’Afrique Centrale
L'auteur tient à remercier les cadres de la COBAC qui ont bien voulu mettre à sa disposition des données pour la
partie empirique de ce papier.
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