Renault S.A.

Transcription

Renault S.A.
Renault S.A.
Primary Credit Analyst:
Eric Tanguy, Paris (33) 1-4420-6715; [email protected]
Secondary Contact:
Vincent Gusdorf, CFA, Paris (33) 1-4420-6667; [email protected]
Recovery Analyst:
Desiree I Menjivar, London (44) 20-7176-7822; [email protected]
Table Of Contents
Initial Analytical Outcome ("Anchor") And Rating Result
Rationale
Outlook
Standard & Poor's Base-Case Scenario
Company Description
Business Risk
Financial Risk
Liquidity
Ratings Score Snapshot
Recovery Analysis
Reconciliation
Related Criteria And Research
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Renault S.A.
BB+/Stable/B
Corporate Credit Rating
Profile Assessments
BUSINESS RISK
FAIR
Vulnerable
FINANCIAL RISK
Excellent
INTERMEDIATE
Highly leveraged
Minimal
Initial Analytical Outcome ("Anchor") And Rating Result
Our 'BB+' rating on France-incorporated automotive manufacturer Renault S.A. is derived from:
• Our anchor of 'bb+', based on our "fair" business risk and "intermediate" financial risk profile assessments for the
company. Under our criteria, the combination of a "fair" business risk profile and an "intermediate" financial risk
profile points to a single-choice anchor of 'bb+'.
• Modifiers have no impact on the final rating.
Rationale
Business Risk: Fair
Financial Risk: Intermediate
• Weak profitability of the group's core automotive
operations and one-offs affecting group
performance in 2013.
• Small size by global standards.
• Good market positioning in the small car and entry
segments.
• Potential to improve scale and geographic spread
through cooperation with Nissan.
• Robust credit ratios for the rating.
• Track-record of positive free operating cash flow
generation in recent years, expected again in 2014.
• Positive contribution to cash flow from its captive
finance arm, RCI Banque and, through dividends,
from its equity associate Nissan.
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Renault S.A.
Outlook: Stable
The stable outlook on Renault mainly reflects Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' view that Renault's European
automotive operations will continue to make a weak contribution to group earnings over the next 12 months. We
believe, however, that the group should be in a position to easily maintain credit ratios that we consider as
commensurate with our 'BB+' rating. As a minimum, we see adjusted funds from operations (FFO) to debt in the
20% to 30% range and debt to EBITDA of less than 4x, even in the most difficult years, as consistent with our
current rating on Renault. Volume carmakers are subject to cyclicality, so our target credit ratios incorporate
buffers to enable us to rate through the cycle.
Downside scenario
We could lower the ratings if Renault's automotive operating margin weakened markedly from the current
break-even level and turned heavily loss-making, resulting in FFO to debt below 20%. This could result from a
sharp contraction in operating margin, caused by a prolonged period of severe double-digit declines in vehicles
sold or the inability to contain--if not reduce--costs.
Upside scenario
We could raise the ratings if the operating margin of Renault's core automotive operations structurally improves
toward the mid-single digits, including through periods of soft demand, and consolidated operating margin
continues to trend upward toward 5%. Further reduction of Renault's dependence on the European market would
also be beneficial, in our view.
Standard & Poor's Base-Case Scenario
Our base-case scenario for 2014 includes expectations of mid-single-digit revenue growth for the group and
consolidated EBITDA margin slightly improving toward 10% from 8.9% in 2013 on a reported basis.
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Renault S.A.
Assumptions
• GDP growth in 2014 of 0.9% in the eurozone
(European Economic and monetary Union).
• Light vehicle sales in Western Europe to increase by
about 3% in 2014--the first year in positive range
since 2007--and positive growth to continue in
2015.
• Car markets in Brazil and Argentina and Eastern
Europe, including Russia and Turkey, expected to
be flat or even report small declines on a full-year
basis; effect on Renault's unit sales may however be
partly offset by the group's positioning in the entry
segment.
• Total group revenues increasing by a few
percentage points after the 0.8% decline reported
for 2013.
• Auto operating margin improving toward 2% over
2014-2015 from 1.3% reported in 2013. The
segment is expected to remain positive in operating
income terms with much less one–off expenses than
the €1.3 billion booked in 2013.
• Consolidated operating margin improving 50 basis
points-100 basis points (bps) over 2014-2015 from
the 2013 level (3.0%), with reported EBITDA
margin improving toward 10%.
• Positive consolidated free operating cash flow
(FOCF) in 2014, but probably lower than in 2013.
Key Metrics
2013a
2014e
2015e
Reported
EBITDA
margin (%)
8.9
9.5
10.0
Reported
operating
margin (%)
3.0
3.5
4.0
S&P-adjusted
FFO/debt (%)
61
More than 45
More than 45
S&P-adjusted
debt/EBITDA
(x)
1.3
Less than 2.0
Less than 2.0
a--Actual. e--Estimate.
Company Description
Renault is a France-incorporated midsize car manufacturer with a growing presence outside Western Europe. In 2013,
Renault ranked third in the passenger car segment in Europe in terms of units sold, with a 8.9% market share (figures
for the EU-27 plus European Free Trade Association countries, from the European Automobile Manufacturers
Association). Renault's market share was behind Germany's Volkswagen AG and French competitor Peugeot S.A. but
ranked ahead of U.S.-based and General Motors Co.and Ford Motor Co., and Italy-based Fiat SpA. Renault also holds
a significant 16.4% market share in the European market for LCVs (light commercial vehicles of less than 3.5 tons).
In 2013, Renault sold a total of 2.63 million vehicles.
The group has three brands: Renault (81% of consolidated auto volume sales), Dacia, and Renault Samsung Motors
(primarily in South Korea). A majority of group revenues are still generated in Europe, but Europe's contribution has
been steadily declining over the past three years (see table 1). Renault is not present in North America, with the
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Renault S.A.
exception of Mexico, nor in Japan.
Table 1
Renault -- Geographic Breakdown Of Sales
Fiscal
year
ended
--Dec. 31,2013 --
--Dec. 31,2012--
-- Dec. 31, 2011--
Revenues
(mil.€)
%
Vehicles
sold*
%
Revenues
(mil.€)
%
Vehicles
sold*
%
Revenues
(mil.€)
%
Vehicles
sold*
%
Europe
23,803.0
58.2
1,301.9
49.5
24,661.0
47.3
1,271.4
49.9
27,720.0
65.0
1,550.2
56.9
of which
France
10,004.0
24.4
0
10,894.0
20.9
551.3
21.6
NA
687.3
25.2
Euromed-Africa
4,446.0
(Romania,
Turkey,
Algeria,
Morocco)
10.9
388.9
14.8
3,992.0
7.7
360.9
14.2
3,754.0
8.8
345.9
12.7
2,997.0
7.3
232.0
8.8
2,466.0
4.7
207.8
8.2
1,680.0
3.9
170.8
6.3
Asia-Pacific 3,753.0
(South
Korea)
9.2
238.4
9.1
4,010.0
7.7
257.6
10.1
4,264.0
10.0
259.1
9.5
5,933.0
14.5
467.0
17.8
6,141.0
11.8
450.9
17.7
5,210.0
12.2
396.9
14.6
Consolidated40,932.0
total
--
2,628.2
--
52,164.0
--
2,548.6
--
42,628.0
--
2,722.9
--
Eurasia
(Russia,
Ukraine)
Americas
(South
America)
*Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in '000s units. N.A.--Not available.
The Clio and Logan-Sandero, Renault's best-selling model families, accounted for 15.8% and 23.3% of total sales in
2013.
Financial services, under the aegis of RCI Banque, the captive finance arm of the group, have contributed positively to
the group's reported operating income, including throughout the 2008-2009 economic downturn.
The French state and Nissan are the group's main shareholders and are likely to remain so in the medium term. They
each hold about 15% of Renault's capital.
Renault owns a very significant stake (43.4%) in Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. and in Russian car producer AvtoVAZ,
operating the Lada brand. Renault increased its stake in AvtoVAZ to 35.9% in June 2014, pursuant to a US$366 million
investment plan.
Cross-shareholdings between Nissan and Renault represent more than pure financial investments, being part of the
global alliance existing between the two companies since 1999. However, Nissan has no voting rights in Renault. The
strategies of both companies are closely coordinated, and, since 2005, they have a common CEO, Carlos Ghosn.
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Renault S.A.
Business Risk: Fair
The main factors supporting Renault's "fair" business risk profile, in our view, are a good market position in the entry
segment of the car market, contributing positively to group earnings, and the company's strategic alliance with Nissan.
Joint purchasing, common research and development, and shared network management with Nissan have already
generated meaningful synergies for Renault, and in the future we would expect the company to benefit further from
platform-sharing with Nissan including in emerging countries with long-term growth potential.
Development of sales in growing markets outside Western Europe, such as Latin America, Eastern Europe, Russia,
Middle East and North Africa also underpin our assessment of Renault's "fair" business risk profile. In a given year,
Renault's performance in one of those regions may however be volatile as it will depend on the specific situation of the
domestic car market and relative cost competitiveness of Renault's product offer. We note that Renault's exposure to
the Russian car market increased in 2013, particularly in terms of earnings performance.
These supporting factors are offset by the low profitability of Renault's core automotive operations. In 2013, underlying
operating earnings for automotive amounted to €521 million, representing a low 1.3% margin on sales. In operating
income terms, these earnings were more than offset by one-off items, mainly related to restructuring charges (€0.4
billion) and provisons for Renault's operations in Iran (€0.5 billion). With Western Europe contributing about half of
unit sales in 2013, Renault still depends to a meaningful degree on the mature and highly competitive European car
market. Finally, Renault is exposed to the fundamental characteristics of the mass-market auto industry: demand
cyclicality, excess production capacity and intense competition in Western Europe, high capital intensity and a
significant fixed-cost base that results in high operating leverage.
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Renault S.A.
S&P Base-Case Operating Scenario
• GDP growth in 2014 of 0.9% in the eurozone (European Economic and monetary Union), 3.0% in the U.S., and
5.5% in Asia Pacific, with China still reporting close to 7.5% growth.
• A 4% growth in global car sales for 2014 driven primarily by positive momentum in Asia-Pacific and North
America. We however expect light vehicle sales in Western Europe to increase by about 3% in 2014--the first
year of positive growth since 2007; after six consecutive years of successive declines in the Western European
car market, 2014 is the first year for which we expect positive growth. We assume positive growth will continue
in 2015.
• Car markets in Brazil and Argentina and Eastern Europe, including Russia and Turkey, expected to be flat or
even report small declines on a full-year basis; effect on Renault's unit sales may however be partly offset by the
group's positioning in the entry segment.
• Total group revenues increasing by low mid-single digit after the 0.8% decline reported for 2013. Foreign
exchange movements are likely to result in a slight negative impact on consolidated revenues in 2014 because
of translation effect.
• Continuing cost-savings and growing volume sales outside Europe resulting in auto operating margin improving
toward 2% over 2014-2015, from 1.3% reported in 2013; segment is expected to remain positive in operating
income terms with much less one–off expenses than the €1.3 billion booked in 2014.
• Steady flow of operating earnings (above €700 million) expected to come from Renault's captive finance arm.
Consolidated operating margin improving 50 bps-100 bps over 2014-2015, from the 2013 level (3.0%), with
reported EBITDA margin improving toward 10%.
Peer comparison
Table 2
Renault S.A. -- Peer Comparison
Industry Sector: Automotive - OEM'S
Rating as of April 30, 2014
Renault S.A.
Peugeot S.A.
Fiat SpA
Volkswagen AG
BB+/Stable/B
B+/Stable/B
BB-/Stable/B
A-/Positive/A-2
--Average of past three fiscal years-(Mil. €)
Revenues
39,536.7
54,621.0
76,403.3
163,306.0
EBITDA
3,135.8
1,653.2
5,351.2
21,348.4
Funds from operations
(FFO)
2,390.1
871.4
2,849.5
16,403.8
Net income from
continuing operations
1,483.3
(2,510.0)
760.7
15,395.7
Cash flow from operations
2,947.8
196.4
4,564.6
16,825.5
Capital expenditures
1,902.3
2,145.7
4,961.3
9,690.0
Free operating cash flow
1,045.4
(1,949.3)
(396.7)
7,135.5
673.8
(2,041.0)
(476.7)
5,539.5
Cash and short-term
investments
3,405.8
2,702.3
10,900.8
9,213.9
Debt
4,468.4
8,454.7
26,552.1
29,335.7
21,897.5
8,671.8
9,692.6
65,673.8
Discretionary cash flow
Equity
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Renault S.A.
Table 2
Renault S.A. -- Peer Comparison (cont.)
Adjusted ratios
EBITDA margin (%)
7.9
3.0
7.0
13.1
Return on capital (%)
8.6
(7.2)
5.9
15.3
EBITDA interest coverage
(x)
6.1
3.1
2.4
8.9
FFO cash interest coverage
(X)
6.1
3.2
3.1
4.5
Debt/EBITDA (x)
1.4
5.1
5.0
1.4
FFO/debt (%)
53.5
10.3
10.7
55.9
Cash flow from
operations/debt (%)
66.0
2.3
17.2
58.9
Free operating cash
flow/debt (%)
23.4
(23.1)
(1.5)
24.3
Discretionary cash
flow/debt (%)
15.1
(24.1)
(1.8)
18.9
Financial Risk: Intermediate
At end-December 2013, Renault had about €4.0 billion in net debt, including Standard & Poor's adjustments for
operating leases, pension deficits, and deconsolidation of the substantial finance liabilities borne by the company's
captive finance subsidiary. On Dec. 31, 2013, the cash reported by Renault for its automotive operations amounted to
€10.7 billion, up from €10.1 billion a year before. The year-on-year increase reflected mainly the positive discretionary
cash flow generated by Renault's automotive operations last year. We deduct €8.0 billion in cash from gross financial
debt, as we consider that cash held by the captive finance is segregated and apply a 25% haircut to cash held by the
automotive division.
Renault's adjusted credit ratios were comfortable for its ratings at year-end 2013: fully-adjusted funds from operations
(FFO) to debt stood at 61%, debt to EBITDA was 1.3x, and FOCF to debt 26.1%.
We believe that improving market conditions in Europe in 2014-2015 should reinforce Renault's credit ratios assuming
the company's disciplined approach in respect of working capital and acquisitions remains unchanged.
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Renault S.A.
S&P Base-Case Cash Flow And Capital Structure Scenario
We anticipate that Renault's credit metrics in 2014 and 2015 should easily remain at the higher end of our
intermediate category for financial risk, with adjusted debt to EBITDA below 2x and adjusted FFO to debt above
45%. Our key assumptions are:
• Capital expenditures growing to €2.8 billion in 2014 and €3.0 billion in 2015;
• Moderate dividend outflow of less than €700 million representing to a large extent a pass-through of the
amounts received by Renault from its equity investments in Nissan and Daimler;
• No major acquisition spending and no material disposal proceeds;
• Limited adverse working capital swings; and
• Positive consolidated FOCF in 2014 and again in 2015.
Financial summary
Table 3
Renault S.A. -- Financial Summary
Industry Sector: Automotive - OEM'S
--Fiscal year ended Dec. 31-(Mil.€)
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Revenues
38,775
39,156
40,679
37,172
31,951
EBITDA
3,216.5
3,292.0
2,899.0
2,495.5
1,504.0
Funds from
operations (FFO)
2,469.4
2,481.6
2,219.3
1,762.5
940.3
586
1,772
2,092
1,420
(3,125)
3,063.4
3,003.6
2,776.3
2,723.5
3,558.3
Net income from
continuing operations
Cash flow from
operations
Capital expenditures
2,009
2,081
1,617
1,197
1,703
1,054.4
922.6
1,159.3
1,526.5
1,855.3
504.4
511.6
1,005.3
1,449.5
1,833.3
Cash and short-term
investments
3,633.0
3,626.0
2,958.5
3,414.5
3,967.0
Debt
4,035.0
4,495.2
4,875.0
5,650.0
10,302.0
20,939.3
22,313.7
22,439.5
20,868.4
14,675.7
EBITDA margin (%)
8.3
8.4
7.1
6.7
4.7
Return on capital (%)
7.5
8.8
9.4
7.4
(7.7)
EBITDA interest
coverage (x)
6.3
6.3
5.8
4.4
2.9
FFO cash interest
coverage (x)
6.7
6.7
5.2
N.M.
3.1
Debt/EBITDA (x)
1.3
1.4
1.7
2.3
6.8
61.2
55.2
45.5
31.2
9.1
Free operating cash
flow (FOCF)
Discretionary cash
flow (DCF)
Equity
Adjusted ratios
FFO/debt (%)
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Renault S.A.
Table 3
Renault S.A. -- Financial Summary (cont.)
Cash flow from
operations/debt (%)
75.9
66.8
57.0
48.2
34.5
FOCF/debt (%)
26.1
20.5
23.8
27.0
18.0
DCF/debt (%)
12.5
11.4
20.6
25.7
17.8
OEM--Original equipment manufacturer.
Liquidity: Adequate
The short-term rating on Renault is 'B'. We view Renault's liquidity as "adequate" under our criteria on the basis of our
projection that the company's ratio of potential sources of liquidity to uses will comfortably exceed 1.2x in each of the
coming two years, as of Dec. 31, 2013.
Principal Liquidity Sources
Principal Liquidity Uses
• €10.7 billion of cash and cash equivalents held in its
automotive division, to which we apply a 25%
haircut as necessary for ongoing operations.
• Access to €3.5 billion in undrawn bilateral
committed credit lines, of which €3.1 billion had a
maturity in excess of 12 months.
• According to management, the existing bank lines
contain no financial covenants, and no material
adverse change, negative pledge, or cross-default
clauses.
• Our expectation of positive FOCF in 2014, which
should provide some support to liquidity.
• €3.7 billion in automotive debt maturing in less than
one year
• Capital expenditures increasing to €2.8 billion in
2014;
• Moderate dividend outflow of less than €700
million;
• No major acquisition spending and no material
disposal proceeds; and
• Limited adverse working capital swings.
Ratings Score Snapshot
Corporate Credit Rating: BB+/Stable/B
Business risk: Fair
• Country risk: Intermediate
• Industry risk: Moderate
• Competitive position: Fair
Financial risk: Intermediate
• Cash flow/leverage: Intermediate
Anchor: bb+
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Renault S.A.
Modifiers
•
•
•
•
•
•
Diversification/portfolio effect: Neutral (no impact)
Capital structure: Neutral (no impact)
Liquidity: Strong (no impact)
Financial policy: Neutral (no impact)
Management and governance: Satisfactory (no impact)
Comparable ratings analysis: Neutral (no impact)
Recovery Analysis
Key analytical factors
• The issue rating on Renault's senior unsecured notes issued under the €7 billion Euro Medium-Term Note program
is 'BB+', in line with the corporate credit rating on the company. The recovery rating on these notes is '3'.
• The recovery rating is supported by the company's substantial asset base but constrained by the unsecured nature
of the notes, the possibility of capital structure changes on the path to default, and our opinion of the less
creditor-friendly jurisdiction of France.
• In our hypothetical default scenario to calculate recoveries, we assume a payment default in 2019 as a result of
significant deterioration in operating performance and negative free cash flow generation at Renault's auto business.
Moreover, under our path-to-default scenario, we assume that operating losses and restructuring expenses would
require significant cash funding and would eat at the company's available liquidity. In this scenario, under tight
credit conditions, we project that Renault would be unable to raise additional debt funding.
• We value Renault as a going concern because it has, in our view, a good market position, a widespread distribution
network, and well-known brands. As such, we believe creditors would obtain greater recovery through
reorganization as opposed to liquidation.
Simulated default assumptions
• Year of default: 2019
• Jurisidiction: France
• Gross enterprise value at default: €10.3 billion
Simplified waterfall
•
•
•
•
Net enterprise value (after 9% administrative costs): €9.4 billion
Priority claims: €2.4 billion
Senior unsecured debt claims: €11.2 billion*
--Recovery expectations: 50%-70%
*All debt amounts include six months' prepetition interest
Reconciliation
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Renault S.A.
Table 4
Reconciliation Of Renault S.A. Reported Amounts With Standard & Poor's Adjusted Amounts (Mil. €)
--Fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2013-Renault S.A. reported amounts
Shareholders'
Debt
equity
Revenues
EBITDA
33,778.0
22,837.0
40,932.0
3,623.0
(34.0)
450.0
3,623.0
3,572.0
550.0
2,749.0
Standard &
Poor's
adjustments
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Interest
expense
(reported)
--
--
--
--
--
--
(450.0)
--
--
--
Interest
income
(reported)
--
--
--
--
--
--
183.0
--
--
--
Current tax
expense
(reported)
--
--
--
--
--
--
(443.0)
--
--
--
283.3
--
--
30.5
20.1
20.1
10.4
10.4
--
--
Postretirement
966.0
benefit
obligations/deferred
compensation
--
--
41.0
41.0
42.0
10.0
(18.0)
--
--
Surplus
cash
(8,028.0)
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Capitalized
development
costs
--
--
--
(732.0)
19.0
--
(732.0)
(732.0)
--
(732.0)
Share-based
compensation
expense
--
--
--
33.0
--
--
33.0
--
--
--
Dividends
received
from
equity
investments
--
--
--
433.0
--
--
433.0
--
--
--
(22,747.3)
(2,274.7)
(2,157.0)
(726.0)
(236.8)
--
(712.0)
231.0
--
(8.0)
Nonoperating
income
(expense)
--
--
--
--
1,627.0
--
--
--
--
--
Noncontrolling
Interest/minority
interest
--
377.0
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
(217.0)
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
514.0
514.0
--
514.0
--
--
--
Total
(29,743.0)
adjustments
(1,897.7)
(2,157.0)
(406.5)
1,984.4
62.1
(1,153.6)
(508.6)
0.0
(740.0)
Reported
Operating
leases
Captive
finance
operations
Debt other
EBITDA other
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Interest
expense
Cash flow
from Dividends
Capital
EBITDA operations
paidexpenditures
Operating
income
APRIL 30, 2014 12
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Renault S.A.
Table 4
Reconciliation Of Renault S.A. Reported Amounts With Standard & Poor's Adjusted Amounts (Mil. €) (cont.)
Standard & Poor's adjusted amounts
Adjusted
Debt
Equity
Revenues
EBITDA
EBIT
4,035.0
20,939.3
38,775.0
3,216.5
1,950.4
Funds Cash flow
Interest
from
from Dividends
Capital
expense operations operations
paidexpenditures
512.1
2,469.4
3,063.4
550.0
2,009.0
Related Criteria And Research
•
•
•
•
•
•
Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Jan. 2, 2014
Corporate Methodology: Ratios And Adjustments, Nov. 19, 2013
Corporate Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013
Key Credit Factors For The Auto Suppliers Industry , Nov. 19, 2013
Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities And Insurers, Nov. 13, 2012
2008 Corporate Criteria: Rating Each Issue, April 15, 2008
Ratings Detail (As Of April 30, 2014)
Renault S.A.
Corporate Credit Rating
BB+/Stable/B
Commercial Paper
Local Currency
B
Senior Unsecured
Greater China Regional Scale
cnBBB+
Senior Unsecured
BB+
Short-Term Debt
B
Corporate Credit Ratings History
03-Nov-2010
BB+/Stable/B
08-Oct-2010
BB/Watch Pos/B
19-Jun-2009
BB/Stable/B
Related Entities
Cofiren Renault et Cie
Issuer Credit Rating
--/--/B
DIAC S.A.
Issuer Credit Rating
BBB/Negative/A-2
Certificate Of Deposit
BBB/A-2
Senior Unsecured
BBB
RCI Banque
Issuer Credit Rating
BBB/Negative/A-2
Certificate Of Deposit
BBB/A-2
Senior Unsecured
BBB
Short-Term Debt
A-2
Subordinated
BB+
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Renault S.A.
Ratings Detail (As Of April 30, 2014) (cont.)
RCI Banque Sucursal Argentina
Issuer Credit Rating
Argentina National Scale
raAAA/Stable/raA-1+
*Unless otherwise noted, all ratings in this report are global scale ratings. Standard & Poor's credit ratings on the global scale are comparable
across countries. Standard & Poor's credit ratings on a national scale are relative to obligors or obligations within that specific country.
Additional Contact:
Industrial Ratings Europe; [email protected]
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