Supelec All-IP 11Mars2009

Transcription

Groupe Professionnel
SI et Telecom
La Convergence Tout-IP
pour les réseaux d’entreprise
Nicolas Lamblin (Alcatel-Lucent)
Christophe Mauger (Alcatel-Lucent)
Aristide Adjinacou Gnahoui (Alcatel-Lucent)
1
Organisation du GP
• Nouvelle dynamique de l’activité Informatique du GP
– Nouveaux membres du bureau en provenance du Groupe DSI
– Nouvelle dénomination plus large
• GP SI et Telecom
• Nouveau président : Michel Olive
– Responsable des Ateliers Telecom : Stephane Aubet
– Responsable des Ateliers SI: Hervé Filloux
• Objectifs
– Les ateliers SI et Telecom
– Conférences thématiques avec le G9+
– Développer les contacts personnels et professionnels, le réseau et le business
des Supélec, au travers de rencontres, d’exposés et de retours d’expérience de
qualité
2
Programme 2009
– 31 Mars : Le Developpement applicatif Agile
• Jean-Marc Jarlier (Bouygues Telecom)
– 6 Avril : Gouvernance des SI : État de l’art et enjeux face à la
crise
• co-organisation G9+
– 7 Avril : Piloter au travers d'un calculateur (Diner-débat
Centrale CIET)
• Bernard Ziegler, ex pilote d’essai d’Airbus
– 6 Mai : Etat de l'art de la menace informatique
• Nicolas Ruff (EADS)
Proposer un thème : [email protected]
3
Convergence Tout IP
Nicolas LAMBLIN , Aristide ADJINACOU, Christophe MAUGER
GP Informatique et Telecom
11 Mars 2009
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2006
Agenda
Partie 1 : IP Transformation for Entreprise business
1. VoIP Market situation & Trend
- Solutions and Services
- Products
2. Unified Communication
- Opportunity & Challenges
- Competitive Landscape
- Trend
Partie 2 : IP Transformation for Carrier business
1. Situation Overview
2. Migration paths
3. IP Transformation drivers
4. Beyond IP Transformation
5 | GP Informatique et Telecom – All-IP 11 Mars 2009
What is the issue ?
Develop & sale new services and new features that allow
to compensate for the revenue erosion of line shipments
What is at stake ?
Maintain profitability and gain market share in a unified
market with larger competitors panel
IP Transformation for Entreprise
Entreprise Telephony Market dimensions
Solution and Services dimension
Network Based – Hosted Business
Product dimension
Applications
Phones
IP
Legacy
Trunking/VoIP VPN
IP Centrex/hosted IP
PBX
IP PBX
Hybrid PBX
Traditional PBX
Premises Based - Managed PBX
Business dimension
Large
One large site or multiple networked sites
SMB Small & Medium Business
One site or small number of sites
Geographical dimension
EMEA
North America
Asia Pacific
CALA
All-IP convergence impacts each dimension differently 
- Products
- Trend
VoIP Solutions
Voice Over Broadband (VoBB)
Voice traffic that is carried across a broadband access link.
Voice over broadband services may be originated from households and business sites (mainly SOHO).
IP Voice Over VPN &
IP/TDM Trunking
This uses a company’s IP VPN solution to deliver on-net voice traffic between sites.
It is commonly provided as a fully managed service.
IP/TDM trunking connects a TDM/IP PBX platform to the enterprise data network and to the public voice network
Customer Premise Equipment based IP/Hybrid PBX
PBX housed in the Customer Site
This can be deployed with a blend of IP and TDM endpoints (lines or trunk)
The service of the CPE based PBX is often a Managed Service delivered by System Integrator or Service Provider
Network Based Dedicated Hosted IP PBX
This is a fully outsourced, managed IP PBX service.
The service provider hosts the customer’s IP PBX at its own central office or datacenter.
Network Based Multitenant IP Centrex
IP Centrex is based on a call management server, or next-generation soft switch
This is housed in a Carrier’s Network Operations Center (NOC)
It delivers all the features of a PBX and supports many functions not available on traditional PBX systems
IP Centrex model is shared between a number of enterprises.
It is aimed at businesses that want all the PBX functionalities but without the associated capital, lease, or maintenance costs.
A very large panel of solution and service offering 
VoIP Solution & Services - Illustration
“XXL Company” Starting Scenario
Page 10
• 500 sites with Medium to Large CPE
PBX, size ranging from 50-1000
extensions
PSTN
• 1800 sites with Small CPE PBX, size
ranging from 12-30 extensions
• 11,000 Sites with no system, direct
connection to PSTN, 2-3 lines
4200
11,000 sites
2-3 direct lines to
PSTN
1800 sites
12-30 extensions
Small Size
500 sites
50-1000 extensions
Medium Size PBX
Multi-Site
XXL Company
All sites are independent:
• no Voice VPN (private numbering
plan)
• no private networking
• no centralized management
• no VoIP
“XXL Company” Main Requirements
Develop a common “convergent” infrastructure for Data, Voice, Video –
open for future developments
Integration with existing legacy (e.g. messaging)
Managed and Hosted “turn key” services (MCS)
Provide all employees with same services and empower the interfaces with
customers (customer offices, CC, internet and sales networks)
Deploy a complete VoIP business services portfolio : private numbering
plan, IPPBX services…
Deploy a set of value-added services to enhance employees’ productivity:
Unified voice/data messaging
Presence, Instant Messaging, Collaboration
Videoconference…
“XXL Company” Final Scenario
PSTN
Carrier NGN
Traffic to
and from
PSTN
IP-VPN
Service Provider
11,000 sites
2-3 IP Phones
VPBX
1800 sites
12-30 extensions
VPBX
313 sites
50-300 extensions
IP-PBX
XXL Company
internal
“on-net”
traffic
• 51 sites with IP-PBX
• 262 sites with Media Gateways
• Communication Servers Redundancy
introduction to provide full Survivability
• 12.800 sites equipped with SIP phones,
connected to the IP-VPN and handled
by the V-PBX (IP-Centrex)
• Voice VPN federating IP-PBXs users and
V-PBX users
• Internal calls to be transported “on-net”
(IP-VPN, Voice VPN)
• No more direct connection to PSTN
(emergency only).
No pre-defined solution : Premises-based, Network-based…
… or both like “XXL Company” 
Customer-Based vs Network Based solution adoption
Many businesses employ both premises-based and carrier-based solutions
This is particularly the case for businesses with multiple locations, or those absorbing
merger and acquisition legacy solutions.
However,
larger businesses tend to deploy premises-based solutions
smaller businesses are more reliant on carrier-provided VoIP solutions
VoIP Services Revenues – Segmentation & Trend
Worldwide VoIP Service Revenue: Hosted VoIP vs M anaged IP PBX
$38,352
$40,000
$30,673
$21,422
$3,945
$8,410
IP
$745
$1,111
Vo
d
X
e
st
PB 2004
2005
Ho
IP
Infonetics Aug08
ed
g
a
an
M
$14,227
$1,608
2006
$20,000
$3,840
$2,721
2007
2008
2009
$6,837
2010
$8,781
$0
2011
Calendar Year
Worldwide VoIP service revenue was $24.1B in CY07
(+52%) over CY06
–
$5,296
Revenue ($M)
$60,000
$52,501
$45,629
As market matures, growth will slow, still double to $61.3B
in CY11 from CY07, (CAGR of 26%)
Strong growth across all segments and regions, but
residential revenue outpaced all segments
Managed IP PBX service Growth is good, but never
as strong as business hosted VoIP services, as appeal
of managed IP PBX services is limited
Hosted Business VoIP
$20,000
$12,207
$15,439
$15,000
$9,223
$689
..
s.
o
h
.
x/
I..
re
t
o
n
V
g/
Ce
in
P
k
I
un
Tr
$648
2004
$1,657
$907
2005
$2,859
$1,175
2006
$3,961
$1,576
2007
$10,000
$6,699
$2,218
2008
$3,103
$4,294
2009
2010
$5,859
$0
2011
Infonetics Aug08
Calendar Year
Business hosted services amounted to $5.5B in CY07
–
VoIP has seen tremendous success in the consumer segment, now the business services
takes-off
Forecast of a 5-year CAGR of 40%, with revenue reaching $21.3B in CY11
28% of total revenue came from trunking/VoIP VPN
–
Higher margin IP Centrex services account for the bulk of this segment;
–
Not much change expected, both services in high demand
$5,000
Revenue ($M)
Worldwide Hosted Business VoIP Service Revenue
Hosted Business VoIP – key take-aways
Targeted market : SMBs
Minimal start-up cost.
For 20% of SMB, this is the 1st impact of the economic downturn on their deployment plan
No need to hire technology support staff
#2 VoIP adoption driver for SMB, (after business application, but before cost reduction)
Affordable Mobility functionality including fixed mobile convergence
Fixed expenditures budgeted over a contracted period of time
Access to appropriate expertise as technology needs evolve
But still strong resistance :
Comfort level with equipment on-premise
Hosted IP is a change => Longer selling cycle (education, concept prove-in,…)
Threat for IP PBX vendors. Tier1 SPs avoid competition with vendors
1st Target : Greenfield SMB / Start-ups 
Strong growth through the next several years 
IP Voice Over VPN & IP/TDM Trunking – Key take-aways
IP communications benefits without transitioning to Hosted (psychological step)
Substitute for hosted for customers with existing premise equipment
Introductory approach to small businesses
Requires upfront CAPEX : upgrade of existing CPE
Primary target : SMB with existing CPE 
IP Trunking is an Avenue to Hosted IP Telephony 
Managed Services evolution – key take-aways
The managed communication services market will become a $10B by 2012
It will continue to grow after that
despite the economic downturn
Partnerships between different types of players will be key
No company can do it all, especially in the converged infrastructure space
It is vital for any vendor to seek the right level of partnership to plug the
skills gap. This will ensure
a more rounded service,
a better customer satisfaction, and,
in the long term, a more stable growth.
It is suited to UC where platform & applications from multi-vendors need to
be integrated, maintained, upgraded and performance optimized
Geographic trends
VoIP Service Revenue by Geographic Region
100%
75%
50%
47%
44%
35%
37%
36%
36%
37%
North America
32%
26%
27%
25%
2%
0%
CY04
30%
30%
30%
2%
3%
4%
CY05
CY06
3%
CY07
CY08
Calendar Year
29%
29%
28%
5%
6%
CY09
CY10
27%
EMEA
Asia Pacific
CALA
7%
CY11
Infonetics Aug08
Asia Pacific was leading the VoIP scene for a couple of years with
Softbank pioneering VoIP services and taking a strong lead
EMEA and North America have been gaining ground as VoIP adoption
ramps up in these regions
- Products
- Trend
Enterprise Voice Product Trend
Total Line shipments
Line shipments in Millions
70,0
60,0
50,0
40,0
30,0
20,0
10,0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
0,0
Dell ORO Jan09
Dell ORO Jan09
Dell ORO Jan09
Telephony market revenue growth:
Line shipments growth :
from $16.2 B (Y08) to $17.8 B (Y13)
from 55.8 M (Y08) to 64.1 M (Y13)
1.9% 5-year CAGR
2.8% 5-year CAGR
2 key take-aways :
Revenue erosion : Revenue growth ≠ Line shipment growth
Line shipments move to IP, SURELY but … SMOOTHLY
Enterprise Voice PBX Trend
Worldwide economic uncertainty impacts the market
Rise from $7.3B to to $7.5 B in 2013 (0.3% 5-year
CAGR)
CY08: ~ flat, largely due to strength in 1H08
CY09: Decline of 5-10%
CY10: Find bottom
Dell ORO July08
CY11: Resume strong growth
TDM should shrink to around $100M by CY11
Hybrid segment will go negative in CY09 staying there
as a new transition to pure switching takes off
Customers purchasing patterns shift :
More features for same price -> Same feature for lower cost
Dell ORO July08
Requirement for new growth vectors, accelerated by economic downturn 
LME vs SMB different dynamic
Top six IP telephony vendors account for
+70% of Large
vs
50% of SMB
+40 vendors competing on SMB
Dell ORO Jan09
Consolidation still on-going on Large (UC...)
Enterprise pause purchases until visibility on
vendors plan
Fragmentation on SMB
Increased number of Solution offerings
Opportunity for players to increase SMB market
Share (IT support providers, Opensource like
Asterisk, Hosted IPT)
Drivers for move to All-IP
VoIP is rapidly becoming a mainstream choice for corporate customers,
But… not just a question of cost saving on long distance and local service
Cost saving benefits have become commoditized and are considered a given
Integration with wide ranging business applications and convenience are the
most important considerations
To accelerate IP convergence value proposition of IP telephony has shifted :
Cost-centric benefits -> Applications-centric rewards.
Business VoIP is as a catalyst for migration to an infrastructure and services that
deliver a truly Unified Communications environment.

Roadblock for move to All-IP
Economic Downturn reinforces some of the usual roadblocks:
The move to all IP has been heavily slowed-down
IP lines will not outship legacy Analog and Digital lines until 2010
Customers continue to focus on Reducing cost and Maintaining
current capabilities
Dell ORO Jan09
1. Reducing Cost
Smooth transition of IP lines (endpoints)
LAN impact. Infrastructure upgrade required for Quality of
Service (QoS) and Power over Ethernet (PoE).
Write-off of Digital phones
Dependency on FMC, Dual-Mode handsets availability and adoption
2. Maintaining current capabilities
Dell ORO Jan09
Postponement of PBX replacement cycles
Smooth migration to maximize re-use of install base
Plenty of solutions developed by vendors & providers
Allows to protect providers market share, but does not generate
expected growth…
UC required as a Revenue Growth vector 
Unified Communication
The converged world
Transformation IP pour l’Entreprise
Agenda
- Products
- Trend
Unified Communication / Definition
Unified Communication IS NOT a single product.
Unified Communications IS :
VoIP. VoIP-based call processing is a building block for UC, but VoIP alone
is not enough to provide UC.
Email & Unified Messaging. While UM simplifies message access and is
generally part of a UC strategy, it is not, by itself, UC.
Instant Messaging. Instant messaging has now become a staple business
application and a popular way to communicate.
Presence. Users may be logged in to multiple devices. They make their
status known to other co-workers and to specify which communication
mode is preferred at given times.
Video. Users can call colleagues and then decide to add video by clicking
an icon.
Web-Based Conferencing and Collaboration. Team members separated by
geography need easy–to-use communications applications that enable
collaboration.
Communication towards a new user experience
Unified Communication benefits
Increase
productivity
Increase
revenues
and profits
Minimizing
operating
costs
More direct collaboration between
co-workers and with suppliers and
clients, even if they are not
physically on the same site
Decrease the number of abandoned
customer calls
Increase responsiveness
Save Cellular charges
Streamline estate and user
management
Improve
customer
service
Improve
Decision
making
Improve
corporate
image
Optimize fixed telephony
infrastructure
Reduce Human Latency with
business process integration
The value of what is done on a call can often outweigh the cost of the call
Unified Communication Benefits / Illustration
Corporate directories / Vacation Request use case
Transactions that normally take place in an SAP interface can instead be
executed in other applications with which end users are more comfortable.
An end user could request a vacation by blocking out the time in his
Outlook calendar.
This action would trigger a leave request that would be routed through the
company's systems using all the rules within the SAP application.
Managers could approve or reject the request much as they would a
meeting request in Outlook.
Customer Relationship Management / Insurance use case
A call center agent at an insurance company might receive a call from
someone who wants to insure a diamond ring.
The agent collects basic information about the potential customer and
enters it into an SAP-based insurance underwriting application.
Through a presence client integrated with the application, the call center
agent will then be able to see a list of the company's insurance
underwriters.
Then through an immediate instant messaging session or a phone call, the
agent goes over the basics of the prospect with the underwriter to
determine whether the company will insure the ring.
The customer get a real-time answer -- yes or no
Unified Communication / Challenges
UC is an emerging area
Salespeople don’t yet have a ‘winning formula’
for driving signatures for UC solutions
Diversity of factors making competitive selling
difficult
Not just the traditional competitors, but new
competitors as well
New competitive offerings emerging constantly
New buying centers (Telecom + IT)
Customer value metrics for UC are not fully
understood, making it difficult to position the
Unique Selling Propositions of a UC offer
No compelling differentiation longer sales
cycles, lost business
Agenda
- Products
- Market Trend
Unified Communication / Competition market
Service
Providers
PBX & Voice Systems
Vendors
•
•
•
•
Unified
Communications
• IP Telephony systems
• Presence engines
• Unified Comms suites
Hosted IP Telephony & messaging
Public IM & VOIP services
Fixed-mobile convergence
Future IMS based services
Messaging &
Collaboration
Vendors
• IM and conferencing
• P2P VOIP
• Content & workflow mgt
Enterprise
Application
Vendors
• Presence, IM, & collaboration add-ins
• Collaboration suites
• Contextual collaboration
But several IT and communications domains are fighting for control
33
Unified Communication / Telephonic centric Approach
Strategy
IP PBX and UM are viewed as the starting point for UC
capabilities.
The functionality offered is telephony-centric, and not all the
functions associated with UC are available.
These solutions are extensions of IP-PBX and UM products. In
some cases, UM is tightly integrated with the PBX, the two are
offered by separate vendors
Partnership with desktop application vendors is mandatory
Strengths
Voice expertise
Installed base
Weaknesses
Ecosystem lacks application
Solution selling capability
Maturity
These products, as offered by the leading telephony vendors,
are mature
They have been on the market since the late 1990s, so the best
practices around deployment and use are established.
Unified Communication / Messaging & Collaboration Approach
Strategy
With presence as the backbone, UC makes this set of
communications capabilities available from within the business
processes and applications that information workers use most.
their software solutions are likely to be positioned to replace
much of the call control functionality that currently resides in
the PBX hardware
Strengths
Own the desktop user interface (around 95%)
Strong IT relationships
Leader in collaboration and a footprint in business apps
Ability to support heterogeneous IT environments and PBX
Weaknesses
Ecosystem lacks business telephony expertise
“One size fits all” box-shifting orientation
Maturity
They are quite mature for small businesses but have not proved
their scalability or reliability for large enterprises
Unified Communication / Service Providers Approach
Strategy
Mobility and Conferencing are viewed as the heart of UC.
This approach integrates on-premises and service offerings, and
has its roots in a range of network-based service solutions.
Strengths
Network is coordination point for UC
PBX reseller relationships
Global providers enable access points in all regions
Weaknesses
Lack IT relationships
Some of the confidentiality, security, reliability and best practices
are not well understood
Maturity
Although application service provider and hosted solutions have
been available for several years, they have proved inadequate for
addressing the full set of enterprise needs.
Unified Communication / Enterprise Application Approach
Strategy
Integration of communication into vertical and horizontal
application (CEBP)
Integration of social network
Partnership/acquisition with infrastructure vendors
Strengths
Significant market presence
Financially secure
Middleware expertise
Weaknesses
Although some individual components are mature, the
overall solution is in an early stage, is fragmented and has
not yet matured as a consolidated UC solution
Enterprise telephony and IM (SDP) are primarily hosted;
however, premise solutions are available, although they are
deployed less
Maturity
Not yet matured as a consolidated UC solution
Unified Communication / Forecasts
Dell ORO Jan09
Quantifying the UC market is extremely
difficult, as there are various ways of
defining UC, and each definition brings
with it a different way to measure the
market.
UC revenues are expected to rise from
$11.7 B in 2008 to $15.0 B in 2013,
yielding a 4.9% 5-year CAGR
The components or elements included in
this forecast are Enterprise Instant
Messaging/Presence, IP PBXs, Unified
Messaging, Conferencing/Collaboration,
UC PBX Integration and other (including
soft phone).
The components showing the strongest
growth during the forecast period are
enterprise IM/Presence, and UC PBX
Conclusion
Unified Communications is all the rage.
The real ROI comes from when UC is tied to
business processes but it is not essential to reach
that phase to reap significant benefits from UC.
While there are clearly many benefits to UC, there
are also significant challenges that must be
overcome in order for the market to reach its
potential.
No one single vendor provides all of the UC
elements for a complete UC solution so each vendor
should re-evaluate its role and forge alliances
The first vendor that will successfully design, sell,
and deploy UC solutions, will be in a position to
lock in value-added customer revenue for years and
years to come
Wireless Network evolution
toward native IP
Broadband access for next-gen
services.
IP Transformation for the Carrier
Agenda
2. Migration paths
Wireless Environment Evolution
•Mobile services evolve
•from simple voice
•to the enhanced services
•This evolution is driving the standards
from 2G to 3G and eventually to 4G.
•Backhaul evolution
•in a cost effective way
•increased bandwidth continues to
rise.
3G Multimedia and throughput trend
18
16
14
12
Parc Multimedia
10
Parc 3G
8
6
SIM internet
4
2
0
'07 Q3
'07 Q4
'08 Q1
'08 Q2
'08 Q3
Revenues Vs Traffic increase – How to maintain profitability?
This is driving the move to a
packet-based infrastructure,
which is key to minimizing
costs and providing a means for
the migration to an all-IP
network.
Agenda
2. Migration paths
All-IP Migration Vs IP Overlay
The issue is not "if" wireless operators will move to an all-IP Radio Access
Network (RAN), but when?
All-IP Migration
The all-IP migration approach mandates a flash-cut approach consistent with a
total network replacement model.
Nevertheless, even in a single next-generation network configuration, with no
legacy switching cited as aligned with the all-IP option, it does not involve a
single flash-cut, but rather consists of an orderly timeline of TDM
replacement.
Beware of the cost in testing the multitude of possible combinations in
migrating the traditional services such as Frame and ATM to Ethernet and IP
with or without inter-working functions in between.
All-IP Migration Vs IP Overlay (2)
The issue is not "if" wireless operators will move to an all-IP Radio Access
Network (RAN), but when?
IP Overlay
• In the IP-overlay scenario, the
network operator simply deploys
an IP network in addition to its
TDM infrastructure.
• Legacy services are supported via
a silo model. TDM customers are
not able to gain access to new
multimedia services.
NGN Vs IMS
• 6 layers:
• Application: added value services
• Call Processing: call management
• Transport: ATM or IP based
• Adaptation and connection through
media gateway
• Access: Link between end users and
the network.
• Terminals
NGN Vs IMS
• 5 layers:
• Application: added value services
• Call Processing: call management
and session control on the PS
domain
• Transport: IP based
• Access: Link between end users and
the network.
• Terminals: SIP enablers.
Many operators that initially deploy
NGN soft-switch-based solutions
continue to view transition to IMS as
a mandatory step. Furthermore,
closely aligned in standards, evolving
from soft-switch to era of IMS is well
defined but does introduced a
second cutover phase.
Impact of All-IP in the access
• IP Access Transport Network
• Cost reduction by reducing E1/T1 leasing.
• Additional bandwidth
• Voice and data on a common facility
• Impacts of Femto Cells
• Introduced in 2005 3GPP, concept of a small
based intelligent wireless radio access node.
• Provide mobile carriers with the technology to
compete with fixed network operators.
• SIP-enabled, extremely well suited to
integration within IMS architectures
• UMTS Beyond rel-8, LTE and Wimax
• Delivery of broadband to the wireless end-user,
equivalent to fixed network broadband
capabilities.
• Provide mobile carriers with the technology to
compete with fixed network operators.
Agenda
2. Migration paths
What will drive the IP strategy?
Model
Benefits
• Lower initial capex
Subscriber driven
(End users opt for IPBased services)
Carrier driven
(Based on provider
schedule)
• Greater customer
tolerance for transition
issues
Trade-offs
• Rapid adoption could
cause extreme workload=>
higher opex
• Lack of control of site
conversion
• Control and plan site
transition => cost are
driven
• Requires feature
transparency and therefore
higher capex costs
• Faster decommissioning
of legacy network.
• New service revenue not
known
Agenda
2. Migration paths
Beyond IP transformation
Wireline and Wireless operator
convergence
• Disruptive technologies allow identical
services (e.g. VoIP) used by wireless
operators and fixed operators.
• Leveraging of the IP backhaul
• Leveraging of services and
applications in both access
• Probably for full benefit of the enduser by enabling the mix of both
mobile and landline services.
Conclusion: from an IP migration to a profitable business
QoS will bring
added-value
Application widening makes a better network… and requires a better network

Supelec All-IP 11Mars2009

Transcription

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