N otes - Fimalac

Pr
ésentation
Présentation
du 26 mai 2010
Notes
Page 0
Chiffres cl
és
clés
du 1er semestre 2009
-2010
2009-2010
clos au 31 mars 2010
(1er
(1er octobre
octobre 2009
2009 –– 31
31 mars
mars 2010)
2010)
Notes
Page 1
Chiffre d
’affaires
d’affaires
des donn
ées publi
ées aux donn
ées comparables
données
publiées
données
(en M€)
S1 2008/2009
S1 2009/2010
(oct. 08 – mars 09)
(oct. 09 – mars 10)
265,6
282,1
Chiffre d'affaires (données publiées)
Effet de conversion ($ et £)
Variation
6,2%
10,9
CHIFFRE D'AFFAIRES
265,6
(données comparables)
Notes
Page 2
293,0
10,3%
Chiffre d
’affaires par soci
été
d’affaires
société
(donné
ées publié
ées)
(donn
publi
(données
publiées)
(en M€)
S1 2008/2009
S1 2009/2010
(oct. 08 – mars 09)
(oct. 09 – mars 10)
Variation
FITCH GROUP
Fitch Ratings
Algorithmics
210,6 (*)
230,0
(*)
52,1
55,1
Eliminations internes
-
CHIFFRE D'AFFAIRES
265,6
(*) Reclassement de 2 M€ d’activités secondaires de Fitch Solutions sur Algorithmics
Page 3
-
5,4%
0,1
(données publiées)
Notes
9,2%
282,1
6,2%
Chiffre d
’affaires par soci
été
d’affaires
société
(donné
ées comparables)
(donn
(données
S1 2008/2009
S1 2009/2010
(oct. 08 – mars 09)
(oct. 09 – mars 10)
Fitch Ratings
210,6
237,9
13,0%
Algorithmics
55,1
55,1
0,0%
293,0
10,3%
(en M€)
Variation
FITCH GROUP
Eliminations internes
-
CHIFFRE D'AFFAIRES
265,6
(données comparables)
Notes
Page 4
0,1
Chiffre dd’affaires
’affaires par zone ggéographique
éographique
(donné
ées publié
ées)
(donn
publi
(données
publiées)
S1 2008/2009
(en M€)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Etats-Unis
Royaume-Uni
Corée du Sud
Allemagne
Pays-Bas
France
Suisse
Espagne
Mexique
Irlande
S1 2009/2010
(oct. 09 – mars 10)
%
100,4 37,8 %
104,2
36,9 %
28,9 10,9 %
30,6
10,8 %
15,1
5,7 %
16,2
5,7 %
15,8
5,9 %
14,4
5,1 %
7,7
2,9 %
8,0
2,8 %
7,1
2,7 %
8,0
2,8 %
7,3
2,7 %
7,7
2,7 %
5,8
2,2 %
7,1
2,5 %
6,1
2,3 %
6,4
2,3 %
7,6
2,9 %
6,1
2,2 %
(oct. 08 – mars 09)
% du chiffre d’affaires total
%
76,0 %
Notes
Page 5
74,0 %
Du chiffre d
’affaires
d’affaires
au rrésultat
ésultat op
érationnel courant
opérationnel
(en M€)
S1 2008/2009
S1 2009/2010
(oct. 08 – mars 09)
(oct. 09 – mars 10)
265,6
282,1
- 205,9
- 222,3
59,7
59,8
Chiffre d’affaires (données publiées)
Autres produits et charges d’exploitation
Résultat opérationnel courant
Variation
6,2 %
0,2 %
(données publiées)
Effet de conversion
5,1
RESULTAT OPERATIONNEL
COURANT (données comparables)
59,7
Notes
Page 6
64,9
8,7 %
R
ésultat op
érationnel courant par soci
été
Résultat
opérationnel
société
(donné
ées publié
ées)
(donn
publi
(données
publiées)
S1 2008/2009
S1 2009/2010
(oct. 08 – mars 09)
(oct. 09 – mars 10)
FITCH GROUP
64,7
65,8
1,7%
Fitch Ratings
71,4
70,6
-1,1%
6,7
- 4,8
Autres (société mère et holdings)
- 5,0
- 6,0
RESULTAT OPERATIONNEL
COURANT (données publiées)
59,7
59,8
(en M€)
Algorithmics
-
Notes
Page 7
Variation
0,2%
R
ésultat op
érationnel courant par soci
été
Résultat
opérationnel
société
(donné
ées comparables)
(donn
(données
S1 2008/2009
S1 2009/2010
(oct. 08 – mars 09)
(oct. 09 – mars 10)
FITCH GROUP
64,7
70,9
9,6%
Fitch Ratings
71,4
76,2
6,7%
Algorithmics
- 6,7
- 5,3
Autres (société mère et holdings)
- 5,0
- 6,0
RESULTAT OPERATIONNEL
COURANT (données comparables)
59,7
64,9
(en M€)
Taux de Marge Opé
Opérationnelle courante (ROC / CA)
33,9%
24,4%
22,5%
Niveau Fitch Ratings
Niveau Fitch Group
Niveau consolidation Fimalac
Notes
Page 8
32,0%
24,2%
22,2%
Variation
8,7%
Du rrésultat
ésultat op
érationnel courant au rrésultat
ésultat op
érationnel
opérationnel
opérationnel
(donné
ées publié
ées)
(donn
publi
(données
publiées)
S1 2008/2009
S1 2009/2010
(oct. 08 – mars 09)
(oct. 09 – mars 10)
59,7
59,8
9,7
- 0,8
69,4
59,0
(en M€)
Résultat opérationnel courant
(données publiées)
Autres produits et charges
opérationnels
RÉSULTAT OPÉRATIONNEL
(données publiées)
Notes
Page 9
Du rrésultat
ésultat op
érationnel au rrésultat
ésultat net
opérationnel
(donné
ées publié
ées)
(donn
publi
(données
publiées)
S1 2008/2009
S1 2009/2010
(oct. 08 – mars 09)
(oct. 09 – mars 10)
69,4
59,0
(en M€)
Résultat opérationnel
(données publiées)
-
1,1
Coût de l’endettement financier net
-
41,6
Autres produits et charges financiers
-
1,4
0,8
Charge d’impôt
-
19,3
- 26,7
0,9
0,4
7,2
- 14,8
0,8
17,6
Résultat net des sociétés mises en équivalence
Intérêts minoritaires
-
RÉSULTAT NET - Part Groupe
(données publiées)
Notes
Page 10
Impacts cession de 20% de Fitch Group
Date de réalisation : 2 novembre 2009
¾ Prise en compte sur l’exercice 2009/2010
Montant net perçu : 300 M€
Plus-value nette comptes sociaux : 249 M€
Augmentation capitaux propres consolidés (part Groupe) : + 214 M€
¾ Application de la norme IFRS 3 révisée (le gain ne transite pas par les
résultats consolidés)
Notes
Page 11
Tr
ésorerie / Endettement net par soci
été
Trésorerie
société
30/09/2009
31/03/2010
Fitch Group
- 180
- 215
North Colonnade (immeuble de Londres)
- 201
- 215
Société-mère et holdings
+ 33
+ 318
Endettement net
- 348
- 112
(en M€)
Notes
Page 12
L
’évolution de ll’actionnariat
’actionnariat de Fimalac
L’évolution
Actionnaire majoritaire
Autocontrôle
dont autocontrôle réservé (stock options)
Autres
Notes
Page 13
30/09/2009
31/03/2010
73,6%
73,6%
5,3%
5,5%
1,2%
0,8%
21,1%
20,9%
100%
100%
Notes
Page 14
Fitch Group
Revenue to Operating Income
in US$ millions
Revenue
Personnel costs
External expenses
Total charges
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Profit sharing plan
Depreciation
Intangible assets amortization
Operating Income
Operating Income Margin
Notes
Page 15
1H 08/09
1H 09/10
% Change
348.1
403.3
+15.9%
180.2
217.1
+20.5%
74.6
76.7
+2.8%
254.8
293.8
+15.3%
93.3
109.5
+17.4%
26.8%
27.2%
-9.9
8.3
10.1
-2.4
8.2
9.7
84.8
94.1
24.4%
23.3%
+10.9%
Financial Highlights
(US$ millions)
Revenue
1H
1H
08/09 09/10
EBITDA
%
Change
FITCH GROUP 348.1 403.3 +15.9%
Fitch Ratings
Algorithmics
276.0 328.8 +19.1%
72.2
74.5
+3.4%
1H
1H
08/09 09/10
Op Income
%
Change
1H
1H
08/09 09/10
93.3 109.5 +17.4%
84.8
90.9 105.4 +15.9%
93.6 100.9
2.4
Notes
Page 16
4.1
-8.8
%
Change
94.1 +10.9%
-6.9
+7.8%
Notes
Page 17
Business Update
Continued improvement in financial performance in 1H10
Rebound in global debt issuance
Challenging economic conditions in key markets despite modest uptick
uptick in
economic indicators
Credit conditions vary by region and asset class
Regulatory and legal environments continue to evolve
Notes
Page 18
Fitch Ratings
Revenue by Segment
(US$ millions)
Revenue
1H 08/09
FITCH RATINGS
1H 09/10
% change
% change
AsAs-Reported
LikeLike-forfor-Like
276.0
328.8
+19.1%
+13.0%
Corporate Finance
147.7
193.4
+30.9%
+25.2%
Structured Finance
69.4
68.7
-1.0%
-5.7%
Fitch Solutions
48.1
53.6
+11.4%
+4.6%
Other
10.8
13.1
+21.3%
+1.7%
Notes
Page 19
Fitch Ratings
Revenue by Region
(US$ millions)
Revenue
1H 08/09
1H 09/10
% change
% change
AsAs-Reported
LikeLike-forfor-Like
FITCH RATINGS
276.0
328.8
+19.1%
+13.0%
North America
112.4
137.9
+22.6%
+22.6%
EMEA
116.5
127.8
+9.7%
+0.9%
Latin America
17.1
26.4
+54.4%
+44.6%
Asia Pacific
29.9
36.7
+22.7%
+5.6%
Notes
Page 20
Fitch Ratings
EBITDA and Operating Income
(in US$ millions)
1H 08/09
1H 09/10
% change
% change
AsAs-Reported
LikeLike-forfor-Like
Revenue
276.0
328.8
+19.1%
+13.0%
EBITDA
90.9
105.4
+15.9%
+14.4%
32.9%
32.1%
-9.8
-2.3
7.1
6.8
93.6
100.9
+7.8%
+6.7%
33.9%
30.7%
EBITDA Margin
Profit sharing plan
Depreciation & Amortization
Operating Income
Operating Income Margin
Notes
Page 21
Global Debt Issuance
Year over year global issuance trends showing improvement
Calendar 1Q10 bond issuance rose 3%, totaling approximately $1.76 trillion
Particularly strong high yield corporates and public finance / sovereign bond
issuance
Structured finance issuance improved year over year, but substantially down from
record levels
Source: Dealogic; Based on calendar year
Notes
Page 22
Corporate Finance
Debt Issuance
Issuance trends among corporate and financial institutions varied
varied by sector
and geography
Non-Financial Corporates
Issuance driven by tightening spreads, fewer corporate defaults as well as
refinancing and M&A activity
Corporate bond issuance in emerging markets up 58% in calendar 1Q over the
prior year
Record high-yield debt issuance in calendar 1Q10
Financial Institutions issuance
Government guaranteed issuance largely replaced by unguaranteed debt
corresponding with wind-down of government support programs
Issuance to remain strong as new regulations on capital and liquidity come into
effect
Notes
Page 23
Sovereign / Public Finance
Debt Issuance
Record issuance despite credit quality concerns
European sovereign issuance rose 9% in calendar 1Q10 over the prior year
Reached $156 billion, the largest quarterly volume on record
Driven by governments funding deficit spending and investors seeking higher
yields
January to March 2010 US municipal issuance was 17% higher than the comparable
period last year
Issuance boosted by the continued popularity of the Build America Bond program
and low interest rates
Monoline insurers wrapping very small amount of issuance
Expanding obligations, belt tightening, and tax base narrowing
Notes
Page 24
Structured Finance
Debt Issuance
Issuance volume in 1H10 remained relatively limited
Non-TALF transactions outpaced TALF issuance as the program wound down and
investor confidence slowly returns to the ABS market
Seeing modest activity in RMBS issuance
Source: Dealogic; Based on calendar year
Notes
Page 25
Macroeconomic Environment
The global economy continues to show signs of stress…
stress…
Greek debt crisis raising concerns about
stability of other European economies
Bank pull back on lending
Unemployment elevated (but signs of
stabilization)
Heavy debt burdens and deleveraging
weigh on consumer spending
Liquidity constraints coupled with
widening sovereign spreads (both bond
and CDS)
Notes
Page 26
Macroeconomic Environment
…Despite indicators rebounding from 2009 lows
Global GDP growth of 2.8% expected
in 2010 driven by
GDP Activity & Forecast
Growth in emerging markets
Government spending
2008
2009
2010F
2011F
US
0.4%
-2.4%
3.0%
2.9%
Euro Area
0.5%
-4.0%
0.9%
1.6%
-1.2%
-5.2%
1.8%
1.6%
UK
0.5%
-4.9%
1.2%
2.0%
BRIC
7.7%
4.4%
7.7%
7.4%
World
1.4%
-2.5%
2.8%
3.0%
Japan
Rising world trade and industrial
production
Improving consumer confidence
Source: Fitch Global Economic Outlook, April 2010
Phasing out of central banks liquidity
measures
Notes
Page 27
Credit Conditions:
Sovereigns
Sovereign credits continue to face a range of economic, fiscal and
and credit
challenges
Contagion effects of Greek debt crisis
Adversely impacting market perceptions of Euro area sovereign risk (e.g.
Portugal and Spain)
Sovereign CDS spreads hitting record highs
Liquidity and refinancing risks
750B Euro ECB plan has provided stability for near-term
Expecting calendar 2010 upgrades and downgrades to be more balanced than in 2009
The historical sovereign default risk remains extremely low
.65% over the period of 1995- 2009
Notes
Page 28
Credit Conditions:
Corporate & Financial Institutions
Global corporate credit quality showing signs of improvement and
stabilization
Negative outlooks down across industrials, while financial institutions remain under
pressure
Corporate defaults down in 2010
The par value of US corporate and financial institution bonds affected by downgrades
was below 2% calendar 2010, a pace in line with pre-crisis levels
Improving balance sheets across all sectors
Expecting continued improvements going forward, although subject to global
economic recovery
Any “double dip” recession would impact trends
Notes
Page 29
Credit Conditions:
Structured Finance
Rating activity remains broadly negative even though some sectors
sectors and
regions are demonstrating ratings stability
ABS sector most resilient, although experienced credit downgrades for first time
since 2003
“AAA” ABS bonds experiencing the highest level of stability across all sectors
Student loan sector was most impacted, while auto sector reported most positive
rating activity
Defaults on commercial mortgages climbing to record highs
RMBS and CDO sectors most impacted due to ongoing strain in US housing market
Notes
Page 30
Fitch Solutions
Fitch Solutions is also providing market participants with new products
products that
increase transparency and market insight
Integrated Data Service (IDS) provides customized counter party risk solutions across
multiple content sets
CDS Liquidity Scores providing a unique insight into liquidity risk
Redesigned Website showcasing breadth and depth of Fitch Ratings’ research; continues
to drive increase in number of users and subscribers
Client base affected by market stress but business performance balanced
balanced by:
Continuing expanded use of products / content across existing accounts
New sales growth continues across regions and different market segments
Third party channels becoming increasingly important for distribution of various content
sets driving growth and visibility
Notes
Page 31
Organizational and
Policies Update
Fitch continues to execute on a range of organizational and policy
policy changes
Named a new President, new Chief Credit Officer, and new Chief Compliance Officer
Formalized peer review committee process
Adopted and revised policies for managing, creating, and validating credit models
Codified policies to verify prior analytical work when an analyst resigns
Fitch will continue to introduce or revise policies and procedures
procedures that
strengthen the ratings process
Notes
Page 32
Regulatory Update
European Union
New rules that will regulate CRAs become effective in 2010
Fitch will apply for registration in the next few months
Examples of provisions include analyst rotations and structured finance symbology
US SEC
Recently adopted new rules and proposed additional rules for comment
Examples of provisions include enhanced disclosures and requiring arrangers to provide
the same underlying deal information to all hired and non-hired NRSROs
US Congress
Legislation pertaining to NRSROs is working its way through Congress as part of larger
financial regulatory reform bills
House bill approved in December; Senate version in debate; Conference forthcoming
Legal Update
Notes
Page 33
The Role of Credit Ratings
Going Forward
Ratings (and related research) are an important independent indicator
indicator of
fundamental credit risk
Which remain broadly valued by market participants
Extensive efforts to enhance the quality of Fitch’
Fitch’s work and rigor of our
processes
Recognized and appreciated by investors
Market likely to move to a more appropriate "normalization" of ratings
ratings use
Reduced reliance on credit ratings may occur; Paradoxically a positive, as it may
address over-reliance on ratings
Should be accompanied by a better understanding of what ratings do and do not address
Continues to be an active dialogue in the market and the media on
on the role
and importance of ratings
Heightened regulatory efforts around globe not inconsistent with the above
Notes
Page 34
Conclusion
Fitch remains committed:
To bring the highest level of transparency to the global credit markets
To deliver independent credit opinions with conviction that reflect the substance behind
each and every rating
To execute with investors’ needs for additional information and insight first in mind
Notes
Page 35
Notes
Page 36
Algorithmics
Market Drivers
Industry best practice and regulation are evolving rapidly
• Full enterprise risk (‘no silos’), improved counterparty credit risk,
collateral and liquidity risk management seen as essential
Firms have to do ‘more with less’.
• Risk-aware decision making and full pricing of risks are critical to
maintaining banks’ competitiveness
Insurers adopt advanced economic capital management
• Solvency II as catalyst for action
Buy side firms develop new investment management models
• Trend from ‘one size fits all’ to tailored asset allocation strategies
New opportunities balanced by continued uncertainty
• New regulations will materially impact industry’s business models
Notes
Page 37
Algorithmics
Highlights
55 New License Orders
♦
EMEA and Latin America drive overall results
440 Software Solution clients
♦
Strong renewal activity and license expansion across current clients
120 Content and Data clients
♦
Long term contract renewal with Credit Data Consortium
735 Professionals in 22 Global Offices
♦
Growth initiatives mostly resourced through internal rebalancing
Notes
Page 38
Algorithmics
Solution Achievements
Market Risk Solutions: 180 clients
• Continued growth in Algo Risk Service
Credit and Capital Solutions: 119 clients
• Expanded market leadership in economic capital solutions
for global insurers
• Strong renewal activity in credit and regulatory capital
Operational Risk Solutions: 101 clients
• New content and software clients
Collateral Management Solutions: 76 clients
• Potential changes in OTC market practice drive demand for
upgrades and new opportunities
Notes
Page 39
Algorithmics
EBITDA and Operating Income
2008/2009
2009/2010
(Oct 08 – Mar 09)
(Oct 09 – Mar 10)
% Change
Revenue
72.2*
74.5*
+3.4%
EBITDA
+ 2.4
+ 4.1
-0.1
0.0
Depreciation
2.2
2.8
Intangible assets amortization
9.1
8.2
- 8.8
-6.9
(in millions of US$)
Profit sharing plan
Recurring Operating
Income
•Includes interinter-company revenue of $0.1 and $0.0M for the period ending March 09
09 and 10 respectively.
Notes
Page 40
Algorithmics
Revenue by Region
% Change
% Change
As-Reported Like-for-Like
2008/2009
2009/2010
(Oct 08 – Mar‘09)
(Oct 09 - Mar ‘10)
North America
22.9
17.7
-22.7%
-23.7%
EMEA
40.3
47.4
+17.6%
+13.1%
Latin America
1.7
2.9
+70.6%
+70.0 %
Asia Pacific
7.3
6.5
-11.0%
-14.8%
72.2*
74.5*
+3.4%
0.0%
(in millions of US$)
TOTAL
ALGORITHMICS
• Includes interinter-company revenue of $0.1M and $0.0M for the period ending March 09 & 10 respectively
Notes
Page 41
Algorithmics
Investment Focus
Continue to evolve core risk solutions
Address key regulatory and industry best practice trends
•
Drive focused innovation to maintain market leadership
Target risk-aware pricing and decision making needs
•
Expand market leadership in economic capital for insurers
Widen breadth and depth of solution
•
Leverage broad geographical presence
•
Broaden footprint in leading regional clients and specific local markets
Continue to build buy side market presence
•
Offer targeted solutions through Algo Risk Service
Notes
Page 42
Algorithmics
Recognized Leadership
2009 Risk Rankings: #1 Enterprise Risk Management Vendor
•Voted top risk management vendor again, receiving more first places in the
enterprise risk categories than any other vendor
2009 Buy-Side Technology Awards: Product of the Year & Best
Risk/Portfolio Analytics Product
• Won for the second year running
2009 Chartis Risk Tech 100
• First in innovation and market risk. Rise to second overall
2009 Credit Magazine
•Won Credit Technology Innovation Award
2010 ifs Financial Innovation Awards
• Most Innovative Financial Services Solution
Notes
Page 43
Appendix
Notes
Page 44
Group Structure
60%
40%
Notes
Page 45