Further fall in demand for financing in Europe
Transcription
Further fall in demand for financing in Europe
Outlook of financing in Europe November 2012 Further fall in demand for financing in Europe The ECB Bank Lending Survey1 recorded a further tightening of credit conditions in the 3rd quarter No significant change expected in the 4th quarter For the coming quarter, banks expect a further tightening of At the end of the 3rd quarter, the ECB survey noted a new financing conditions comparable to that observed since the start of tightening of credit conditions to companies, rising from a net the year and a contraction in demand, but to a lesser extent. balance of 10% in the 2nd quarter of 2012 to 15% in the 3rd quarter of 20122. Among the factors contributing to changes in financing Real-estate financing conditions, it may be noted that the cost or access to refinancing by With regard to financing of commercial real estate, banks continue banks contributes less and less to the tightening of access to debt; to operate in a mixed economic environment, limited by their conversely, economic expectations and business prospects heavily objectives to reduce the size of their balance sheets but benefiting affect the trend. The impact on financing conditions is evidenced by from a general rise in margins. German banks, including those using a new rise in margins on financing considered to be the most risky. Pfandbriefe, remain the most active and most competitive in the prime assets financing segment. Some international banks as well as life insurance companies and debt funds, seeking higher yields, are positioning themselves on core/core+ assets. Source BCE Many debt funds continue to be set up in Europe and France. According to INREV, 19 debt funds have been created over the past three years in Europe with a capacity of around 9 to 10 billion euros. Among the players who have entered this segment we can cite La Française AM, AEW Europe, Acofi, Groupama AM, and La Banque Postale AM, and other operators are apparently positioning themselves on the French market. Gradually, a new landscape is emerging with regard to real-estate financing, with a greater diversification of financing sources. A further fall in demand in the 3rd quarter At the end of the 3rd quarter, demand for financing fell by 28% following a 25% drop in the 2nd quarter. This trend is primarily driven by the marked drop in investment financing needs (−33%). It may also be noted that the fall in demand for bank financing also comes from the use of other channels such as bond issues, capital increases and the use of alternative sources of financing. 1 The BLS measures the conditions for granting credit to companies and households in the previous and next quarter. 2 The net balance is the difference between the percentage of establishments having tightened their financing conditions and that of establishments having relaxed their financing conditions. A positive net balance indicates a tightening of financing conditions. Through insurance companies and debt funds—and, to a lesser extent, bond issues—the proportion of bank loans in Europe is expected to shrink and approach that of the American model. Pulse – Outlook of financing in Europe – November 2012 2 Jones Lang LaSalle offices France Paris 40-42 rue La Boétie 75008 Paris Tél. : + 33 (0)1 40 55 15 15 Fax : + 33 (0)1 46 22 28 28 La Défense Immeuble Le Berkeley 19-29, rue du Capitaine Guynemer 92903 Paris La Défense Cedex Tél. : + 33 (0)1 49 00 32 50 Fax : + 33 (0)1 49 00 32 59 Saint-Denis 3, rue Jesse Owens 93210 Saint-Denis Tél. : + 33 (0)1 40 55 15 15 Fax : + 33 (0)1 48 22 52 83 Le Plessis-Robinson “La Boursidière” BP 171 92357 Le Plessis-Robinson Tél. : + 33 (0)1 40 55 15 15 Fax : + 33 (0)1 46 01 06 37 Lyon 55, avenue Foch 69006 Lyon Tél. : + 33 (0)4 78 89 26 26 Fax : + 33 (0)4 78 89 04 76 Contacts : Virginie Houzé Head of Research Paris Stephan von Barczy Head of French Capital Markets Group Paris +33 (0)1 40 55 15 94 [email protected] +33 (0)1 40 55 17 64 [email protected] Graeme Jackson Head of Corporate & Government Capital Markets French Capital Markets Group Paris +33 (0)1 40 55 17 74 [email protected] www.joneslanglasalle.fr COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, inc. 2012 - Tous droits de reproduction, de représentation, de traduction et d'adaptation par tous procédés réservés pour tous pays. Toute reproduction intégrale ou partielle, par quelque procédé que ce soit, faite sans l'autorisation de Jones Lang LaSalle ou de ses ayants droits est illicite (art. L. 122-4 du Code de la propriété intellectuelle) et constitue une contrefaçon sanctionnée par les articles L. 335-2 et suivants du Code de la propriété intellectuelle. Jones Lang LaSalle ne saurait en tout état de cause être tenu responsable de tout dommage direct ou indirect ou de toute perte subie en raison d'une inexactitude ou d'une incorrection de ce document.