Banana market report, sem.10

Banana market report
sem. 10 2016
Une publication réalisée par Cirad-Persyst
[email protected]
European Market
European markets still tight.
Banana sales have remained very highly dynamic, stimulated by
favourable temperatures and the absence of competition at the
retail stage. This is especially true for Northern Europe du Nord,
where sales are registering better levels than in previous years.
Hence the additional supply needs have not been met. The dollar
banana supply has been limited by the significant fall in
Colombian volumes (ongoing drought at the production stage).
The combined Africa/French West Indies supply has continued to
rise (African sources in particular), climbing back to an overall
level above average. However, volumes have been quickly
absorbed due to good demand. Hence a slight tension has
remained, helping prices maintain a steady to slightly upward
trend. In Eastern Europe, availability has been higher, though
volumes have still been readily absorbed by the persistently lively
sales activity. Finally, despite clearances made onto other
markets, the Russian market remains swollen.
EU-28 reference price
Tendance
Semaine 10
14.85
€ / box
Semaine 10 / Semaine 9
+0.10
2016 / ave 13-15
+3%
euro/ box (18.5 kg)
Prices of Best Brands / EU categories
16.0
15.5
15.0
14.5
14.0
SP*
DE - 2nd / 3rd brands
FR - FWI*
Week 09
Week 10
FR - Africa*
IT - Dollar
SP = Spain; DE = Germany; FR = France; IT = Italy; the Spanish prices reflect only the super extra category that is only part of the Spanish market. Prices of
FWI and African bananas are official prices.
Other Markets
Reference price - Russia
Tendance
USA - Reference price
Semaine 10
Tendance
12.5
Semaine 9
17.07
$ / box
$ / box
Semaine 10 / Semaine 9
+0.50
Semaine 9 / Semaine 8
-0.14
2016 / ave 13-15
-23%
2016 / ave 13-15
+8%
Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite
France
No real surprise - French market maintaining its very positive
trend.
Prix directeur
Arrivages
Sales on both the local and export markets remain highly dynamic,
given the favourable temperatures and lack of alternatives from
competing fruits. Furthermore, the increase in the overall supply is
still very limited, barely managing to cover the needs of the market.
FWI shipments have maintained a stable and average level. The
African supply has registered a very slight increase, especially
driven by Côte d’Ivoire, which is gradually getting back to
seasonal levels due to the better climate conditions at the
production stage. Imports from Cameroon have remained stable.
Finally, the dollar banana supply available is maintaining very
moderate levels in France, thereby generating price increases for
these sources. For Africa/FWI, prices are still stable and strong.
Prix quai
Tendance
Green Prices
Green Prices - Estimate
Surina
m
FWI
Official prices
Official Prices
Dollar
0.78
Extra /
Label
Extra /
Generi
c
Extra /
Plante
ur
Extra /
Pays
Extra
€ / kg
€ / kg
€ / kg
€ / kg
€ / kg
€ / kg
0.86 /
0.89
(0.92)
0.70 /
0.73
0,87
0,76
0.65 /
0.76
€ / box
€ / box
€ / box
€ / box
€ / box
€ / box
12.00 /
14.00
16.00 /
16.50
(17.00)
13.00 /
13.50
16,00
14,00
0.72
0.66
0.81 /
0.84
15.00 /
15.50
0.84
Euro / kg
Africa
Africa - Green price
0.60
s1
s3
s5
2013
s7
s9
2014
1
s1
2015
3
s1
5
s1
2016
Average green prices weighted by volumes
(estimate in euro / kg)
Week
Week
10
9
Martinique
0,82
Guadeloupe
Ave 2016
W / W-1
Y / Y-1
Y / Y-2
0,82
0,77
0%
2%
12%
0,82
0,82
0,77
0%
2%
12%
Ivory Coast
0,78
0,78
0,76
-1%
-0%
11%
Cameroon
0,80
0,80
0,78
-0%
1%
13%
Dollar
0,88
0,86
0,76
3%
1%
7%
Surinam
0,70
0,70
0,69
0%
-8%
10%
Average
0,82
0,81
0,78
0%
2%
13%
Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite
EU Arrivals
Arrivals Cote d'Ivoire
8,000
8,000
6,000
6,000
000 tons
000 tons
FWI Arrivals
4,000
2,000
0
4,000
2,000
s1
s3
s7
s9
2014
s5
2013
1
s1
2015
3
s1
0
5
s1
2016
s1
s3
s5
2013
s7
s9
2014
1
s1
2015
3
s1
5
s1
2016
A significant proportion of volumes discharged in France are re-exported.
Week 10 : Arrivals EU FWI / Africa / Surinam
Vessel
ETA
From
To
Load
Pointe du Diamant
Lu 07
Surinam
Dunkerque
580
t
Pointe du Diamant
Lu 07
Martinique
Dunkerque
3993
t
Pointe du Diamant
Lu 07
Guadeloupe
Dunkerque
1134
t
Pacific Reefer
Di 06
Cameroun
Anv/Portsmouth
3262
t
Pacific Reefer
Di 06
Côte d'Ivoire
Anv/Portsmouth
1653
t
Pacific Reefer
Di 06
Ghana
Anv/Portsmouth
687
t
Lady Rosemary
Je 10
Cameroun
P. Vendres/Vado
2308
t
Lady Rosemary
Je 10
Côte d'Ivoire
P. Vendres/Vado
1892
t
Lady Rosemary
Je 10
Ghana
P. Vendres/Vado
153
t
Divers Portes conteneurs
ND
Côte d'Ivoire
Divers Ports
1740
t
Arrivals EU FWI / Africa / Surinam
Week
Week
10
9
Martinique
3 993
4 030
Guadeloupe
1 134
TOTAL FWI
5 127
Ivory Coast
W / W-1
Tot 2016
Y / Y-1
Y / Y-1
-1%
33 465
-0%
10%
1 121
1%
10 386
-15%
-25%
5 151
-0%
43 851
-4%
-1%
5 285
4 966
6%
46 592
32%
-7%
Cameroon
5 569
5 432
3%
55 840
8%
14%
Ghana
840
679
24%
7 104
20%
-8%
TOTAL Africa
11 694
11 077
6%
109 536
18%
3%
Surinam
580
740
-22%
10 760
-12%
-13%
TOTAL
17 401
16 968
3%
164 147
9%
1%
Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite
Retail Prices
France - Promotional retail price
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
Euro / kg
Euro / kg
France - Average retail price
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
s1
s3
s5
2013
s7
s9
2014
1
s1
2015
3
s1
0.0
5
s1
2016
The « Réseau des Nouvelles de Marché » (RNM) observes retail prices of
agricultural products in 150 stores located throughout France. This sample is
representative of 150 stores and hypermarkets with a size greater than 1,000
m2.
s1
s3
s5
2013
s7
s9
2014
1
s1
2015
3
s1
5
s1
2016
Source : RNM
Source : RNM
Africa - differential retail price - green price
60
1.00
45
0.75
Euro / kg
% of retailers organizing
promotions
Promotional activity rate
30
15
0
0.50
0.25
s1
s3
s5
2013
s7
s9
2014
1
s1
2015
3
s1
0.00
5
s1
2016
Source : RNM
s1
s3
s5
2013
s7
s9
2014
1
s1
2015
3
s1
5
s1
2016
Source : RNM (cal. CIRAD)
France - Organic Bananas
France - Organic Bananas
Wholesale price. Origin: America
Retail price. Orgin : America.
2.0
2.4
1.5
1.8
Euro / kg
Euro / kg
Organic bananas
1.0
0.5
0.0
1.2
0.6
s1
Source : RNM
s3
s5
2013
s7
s9
2014
1
s1
2015
3
s1
0.0
5
s1
2016
s1
Source : RNM
Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite
s3
s5
2013
s7
s9
2014
1
s1
2015
3
s1
5
s1
2016
Arrivals - Forecast
Week 11 : Arrivals EU FWI / Africa / Surinam
Vessel
ETA
From
To
Load
Fort St Louis
Lu 14
Surinam
Dunkerque
440
t
Fort St Louis
Lu 14
Martinique
Dunkerque
4132
t
Fort St Louis
Lu 14
Guadeloupe
Dunkerque
1201
t
Caribbean Star
Di 13
Cameroun
Anv/Portsmouth
3475
t
Caribbean Star
Di 13
Côte d'Ivoire
Anv/Portsmouth
1559
t
Caribbean Star
Di 13
Ghana
Anv/Portsmouth
631
t
Lady Rosebay
Je 17
Cameroun
P. Vendres/Vado
2196
t
Lady Rosebay
Je 17
Côte d'Ivoire
P. Vendres/Vado
1942
t
Lady Rosebay
Je 17
Ghana
P. Vendres/Vado
130
t
Divers Portes conteneurs
ND
Côte d'Ivoire
Divers Ports
1980
t
Arrivals EU FWI / Africa / Surinam
Week
Week
11
10
Martinique
4 132
Guadeloupe
W / W-1
Tot 2016
Y / Y-1
Y / Y-1
3 993
3%
37 597
1%
7%
1 201
1 134
6%
11 587
-14%
-23%
TOTAL FWI
5 333
5 127
4%
49 184
-3%
-2%
Ivory Coast
5 481
5 285
4%
52 073
29%
-6%
Cameroon
5 671
5 569
2%
61 511
7%
14%
Ghana
761
840
-9%
7 865
17%
-5%
TOTAL Africa
11 913
11 694
2%
121 449
16%
3%
Surinam
440
580
-24%
7 540
-36%
-44%
Grand TOTAL
17 686
17 401
2%
178 173
7%
-2%
Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite
Germany
Prix directeur
German market still tight.
Needs are in excess of the dollar banana volumes on the contract
market, and availability on the spot market is becoming
increasingly limited, especially because of falling production in
Colombia. In addition, both yellow and green banana demand is
remaining very lively. In this context free market prices have
continued to strengthen, reaching particularly high levels. Thus a
maximum threshold seems now to have been reached, especially
on the export markets.
Arrivages
Prix quai
Tendance
Green Prices
Green Prices
Green Prices 2nd / 3rd brands Germany
2nd / 3rd brands
20
14.00 / 16.50
15
Euro / box
€ / box
10
5
0
s1
s3
s5
2013
s7
s9
2014
1
s1
2015
3
s1
5
s1
2016
Retail Prices
Retail Prices Germany
Wholesale Prices Germany
Product: Bananas, Store: ALL, Origin: ALL
Product: BANANAS FIRST BRANDS, Origin: ALL
1.6
1.6
1.2
1.2
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.4
0.0
s1
s3
s5
2014
s7
2015
s9
1
s1
Avg 3 y
3
s1
0.0
5
s1
2016
Source : TWMC
s3
s5
2014
s7
2015
s9
1
s1
Avg 3 y
3
s1
5
s1
2016
Source : TWMC
Retail Prices German Discounters
Retail Prices German Discounters
Product: BANANAS, Store: ALL, Origin: ALL
Product: BANANAS, Store: ALDI, Origin: ALL
1.6
1.2
1.2
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.0
s1
s1
Source : TWMC
s5
s3
2014
s7
2015
s9
1
s1
Avg 3 y
3
s1
0.0
5
s1
2016
s1
Source : TWMC
Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite
s5
s3
2014
s7
2015
s9
1
s1
Avg 3 y
3
s1
5
s1
2016
Spain
The Spanish market is starting to swell. Although demand remains
lively thanks to promotions implemented in the distribution sector,
the absence of competing fruits and low pressure from bananas
from other sources, it is no longer sufficient to absorb imports,
which have remained 18% above average, adding to stocks
already available. Some quality problems have started to be
observed (rapid maturation because of the cold which has hit the
production zones). In addition, in anticipation of Easter, operators
are trying to bring down their stock levels rapidly. Hence yellow
banana prices have been cut, and official green banana prices
have remained unchanged, though concessions are starting to be
applied because of the narrow margins for the ripening plants.
Prix directeur
Arrivages
Tendance
Prix quai
Green Prices
Green Prices - Platano de Canarias
Platano de Canarias - Super Extra Green Price
(18,5 kg box equivalent)
Extra
Cat I
Cat II
€ / kg
€ / kg
€ / kg
€ / kg
0.72 / 0.8
0.62 / 0.70
0.52 / 0.60
0.42 / 0.50
€ / box
€ / box
€ / box
€ / box
13.32 /
14.80
11.47 /
12.95
9.62 / 11.10
7.77 / 9.25
1.00
0.75
Euro/kg
Super
extra
0.50
0.25
0.00
s1
s3
s5
2013
s7
s9
2014
1
s1
2015
3
s1
5
s1
2016
Retail Prices
Spain - Retail Prices - Bananas*
2.4
1.6
1.8
1.2
Euro / kg
Euro / kg
Spain - Retail Prices - Platano
1.2
0.6
0.0
0.8
0.4
s1
s3
s5
2013
Source : Min. Economia
s7
s9
2014
1
s1
2015
3
s1
0.0
5
s1
2016
s1
s3
s5
2013
s7
s9
2014
1
s1
2015
3
s1
5
s1
2016
* all sources except the "Platano" from the Canary Islands
Source : Min. Economia
Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite
Arrivals
Arrivals - Canary Islands
Arrivals Forecast
000 tons
Tons
12,000
Week
10,000
11
Total
8,000
7 715
W/W-1
-14%
6,000
4,000
s1
s3
s5
2013
s7
s9
2014
1
s1
2015
3
s1
5
s1
2016
Platano from Canary Islands
tons
Total
Week
Week
10
9
8 925
8 611
W/W-1
Ac. 2016
Y/Y-1
Y/Y-2
4%
78 820
20%
6%
Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite
Italy
No major changes on the Italian market, maintaining its sound
balance.
Like the other West European markets, conditions are favourable
for banana consumption, which is maintaining good activity.
Furthermore, the falling level of incoming shipments (especially
from Colombia) is helping maintain good green banana demand.
Availability for the export markets has been low. Once more, prices
have been stable, though an increase is under consideration for
week 11.
Prix directeur
Arrivages
Prix quai
Tendance
Green Prices
Green Prices
Green Prices
2nd brands
3rd brands
€ / kg
€ / kg
0,84
0,76
€ / box
€ / box
15,50
14,00
Italy - Green Prices
Euro / box
20
15
10
5
0
s1
s2
s3
s4
s5
s6
2013
s7
s8
2014
s9
s10
2015
s11
s12
2016
s13
s14
s15
s16
s11
s13
s14
s15
s16
Retail Prices
RETAIL PRICES ITALY
Product: BANANAS, Origin: ALL
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
s1
s2
s3
s4
s5
s6
2014
s7
s8
2015
s9
s10
Avg 3 y
Source : TWMC
Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite
s12
2016
Poland
Prix directeur
Polish market maintaining its positive trend.
Arrivages
The dollar banana supply availability has been slightly higher.
Merchandise transfers from Russia have continued to arrive.
However, all of the volumes seem to have been absorbed, given
the still very lively sales. Hence green banana prices have
strengthened slightly, maintaining levels slightly above average.
Yellow banana prices have also registered an increase, though
this should remain limited, to avoid impeding the current positive
sales dynamic.
Prix quai
Tendance
Green Prices
Green Price
Wholesale Price
Poland
Poland
€ / kg
€ / kg
0.87 / 0.89
0.95 / 1.01
€ / box
€ / box
16.00 / 16.50
17.50 / 18.75
Average green price in Poland
All brands
Euro / box
20
15
10
5
0
s1
s2
s3
s4
s5
s6
2013
s7
s8
2014
s9
s10
2015
Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite
s11
s12
2016
s13
s14
s15
s16
UK
Retail Prices
RETAIL PRICES UK
RETAIL PRICES UK
Product: BANANAS LOOSE, Store: ALL, Origin: ALL
Product: BANANAS PACKED, Store: ALL, Origin: ALL
1.00
1.6
0.75
1.2
0.50
0.8
0.25
0.4
0.00
s1
Source : TWMC
s3
s5
2014
s7
2015
s9
1
s1
Avg 3 y
3
s1
0.0
5
s1
2016
s1
Source : TWMC
Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite
s3
s5
2014
s7
2015
s9
1
s1
Avg 3 y
3
s1
5
s1
2016
Russia
Prix directeur
Russian market situation still sluggish.
Despite some underlying demand, sales figures are still not
managing to relieve the swollen market. Despite some clearances
to other markets (Baltic States, Eastern Europe), stocks remain
available given the incoming shipments remaining large (although
falling). CIF prices have strengthened very slightly, though levels
remain 23% below average for the season.
Arrivages
Prix quai
Tendance
Green Prices
Green Price
St Petersburg - Green Price (CIF)
CIF - Russia
24
$ / kg
18
US$ / box
St Petersbourg
0,68
$ / box
12
6
12,50
0
s1
s3
s5
2013
s7
s9
2014
1
s1
2015
3
s1
5
s1
2016
Arrivals
Arrivals in boxes
Russia
Week
Week
10
9
1 500 000
1 650 000
W / W-1
Tot 2016
Y / Y-1
-9%
16 550 000
39%
Arrivals Forecast
Arrivals of bananas in Russia
boxes
11
Russie
1 500 000
2,000,000
W / W-1
0%
Million boxes
Week
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite
s1
s3
s5
2013
s7
s9
2014
1
s1
2015
3
s1
5
s1
2016
Exchange Rate
Exchange rate Rouble / Dollar
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
2013
…
… …
2014
…
… …
2015
…
…
2016
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
Source : Oanda
Ce document a été produit par l’Observatoire des Marchés du département PERSYST du Cirad, pour l'usage exclusif des abonnés. Exemplaire imprimé
pour CIRAD Market News Service, n° de compte 9951. Les données présentées proviennent de sources fiables, mais le Cirad ne peut pas être tenu
responsable de toute erreur ou omission. En aucun cas, les prix publiés peuvent être considérés comme des prix de transaction. Leur but étant
d’éclairer sur les tendances et les évolutions du marché à moyen et long terme. Cette publication est protégée par copyright et tous les droits de
reproduction et de diffusion sont interdits.
Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite