Energy, climate and prosperity

Transcription

 Energy, climate and prosperity
Gaël Giraud
Chief economist | AFD
Senior researcher | CNRS
Professor | ENPC
Director | Chair Energy and Prosperity
I. CLIMATE : it’s serious!
Anthropogenic origin of climate change is
now well understood
(IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch)
(NASA GISS Janvier 2014)
4
Business as usual leads to + 5°C. Too late for <+2°C. GIEC 2013
5
Climate Change Vulnerability Index
10
Adaptation capability
Source : GAIN Index / readiness map
11
Abondance des poissons
Atlantique nord en 1900
Une mer sans poissons en
2050?
(Philippe Cury, Calmann-Lévy, 2008)
Abondance des poissons
Atlantique nord en 2000
Christensen et al. (Fish & Fisheries, 2003)
II. The Energy shift
World consumption of primary energy since 1850 Consommation mondiale d’énergie primaire depuis 1850
Mtep
14
Why should we focus on the link growth/energy?
• Kaya’s equation:
• World average 1965 - 1981: 2.38% = 1.6% + 0.78%
• World average 1981 - 2013: 1.86% = 0.5% + 1.36%
• Japan 2000 - 2012: 0% = 0% + 0%
Decoupling?
22 janvier 2013
Réunion coordination climat - Pilotage des indicateurs climat
17
GDP elasticity wrt Primary Energy? Around 60%...
Decoupling? (II)
22 janvier 2013
Réunion coordination climat - Pilotage des indicateurs climat
20
Peak oil? Soon?
World Oil production, mb/d
100
2012
Historical
URR 2100 Gb
URR 2500 Gb
URR 3000 Gb
URR 3500 Gb
75
50
25
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
0
Les autres énergies fossiles suivront avec quelques décennies de retard
Source : Carbone 4 From Historical IEA, AIE, E&L, BP ; prospective The Shift Project with Hubbert extrapolation
23
III. Coping with the possibility
of a collapse (1)
Meadows (1972) has not been
defeated (cf. Turner 2014)
A ce jour les projections faites dans les années 70 se confirment
Pollution
Ressources
Population
Industrial Output
Food
Meadows and the Energy shift
Industrial Output
Food
Population
Resources
Pollution
Trop de volatilité tue les prix.
31
III. The Macro-economic
“New Normal”
Growth = employment ?
44
IV. Coping with the possibility
of a collapse
GEMMES
General Monetary Macro-dynamics
for the Ecological Shift
⌅ Macroeconomic Model for Climate Change
Climate module overview
Temperature
Change
Real Output
Radiative
Forcing
CO2
Emissions
CO2
Accumulation
Figure: Diagram of the Economy-Climate interactions.
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CO2 Accumulation
Three-Layer Model of CO2 Accumulation
CO2 Emissions
Layer AT
Radiative Forcing
Atmosphere
Layer UP
Biosphere
Upper part of the oceans
Layer AT
Lower part of the oceans
Figure: Diagram of the CO2 accumulation model.
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⌅ Numerical Simulations
The Business-As-Usual Scenario
Debt to
Nominal GDP
Ratio

1,62

1,53

1,44

1,35

0,54

0,57

0,6
Wage
Share

0,63

0,74
1,26
0,68
0,7
0,72
Employment
Rate
Figure: Trajectories of the main simulation outputs in the Business-as-usual case.
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The Business-As-Usual Scenario
1,0
0,05
0,8
0,04
0,6
0,03
0,4
0,02
0,2
0,01
2,0
0,05
1,5
0,03
1,0
0,01
0,0
2000
70 000
Employment Rate
2050
2100
-0,02
2200
2250
0,00 -0,04
2300
2000
21
50 000
16
40 000
30 000
11
20 000
6
10 000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
Real Output in $ 2010
Emissions per Capita in tCO2 (right axis)
1
2300
0,5
Labor Productivity Growth
Population Growth
Inflation Rate (right axis)
2150
60 000
0
2000
Real Ouput Growth
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
Debt to Nominal GDP Ratio (right axis)
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
0,0
2300
1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
Atmospheric Temperature Change in °C
Damage to Real Output Ratio (right axis)
0,0
2300
Figure: Trajectories of the main simulation outputs in the Business-as-usual case.
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The Burke et al. (2015) Scenario
1,0
0,05
0,8
0,04
5,0
0,05
4,0
0,03
0,6
0,03
0,4
0,02
0,2
0,01
3,0
2,0
0,01
0,0
2000
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
Employment Rate
2050
2100
Real Ouput Growth
-0,02
2200
0,00 -0,04
2300
2000
8
7
2250
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
-1,0
2300
1,0
7
6
6
5
5
4
0,6
4
3
0,4
3
2
2
1
1
2300
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
0,0
Population Growth
2150
1,0
0
2000
0,8
0,2
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
0,0
2300
Figure: Trajectories of the main simulation outputs in the Burke et al. (2015) case.
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Damage Function (2/2)
1,0
Damages (fraction of output)
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0,0
0
1
2
3
4
Temperature increase (°C)
Nordhaus
Weitzman
5
6
Dietz and Stern
Figure: Comparison of the proposed Damage functions as percentage of output.
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The Dietz-Stern Scenario
1,0
0,05
0,8
0,03
0,01
0,05
6,0
0,03
0,6
-0,01
0,01
0,4
-0,02
0,2
0,0
2000
500
-0,05
Employment Rate
2050
Population Growth
-0,07 -0,04
2150
2000
2100
1,0
Real Ouput Growth
-0,03
2050
2100
7
16
400
-4,0
2150
1,0
6
0,8
5
300
11
200
6
100
0
2000
4
0,6
3
0,4
2
0,2
1
1
2150
2050
2100
0
2000
2050
2100
0,0
2150
Figure: Trajectories of the main simulation outputs in the Dietz-Stern case.
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Objective +1.5 C
Price in 2015
Price in 2020
Price in 2050
Sensitivity of 1.5
Init. price of 15
Init. price of 80
18.58
86.27
23.00
93.04
82.93
146.35
Sensitivity of 2.9
Init. price of 15
Init. price of 80
65.50
144.32
286.02
260.35
xxx
xxx
Table: Price in order to prevent the temperature anomaly to reach the + 1.5 ceiling in 2100, prices
are in 2005 US$/t CO2 .
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V. Some “solutions”
The four pillars of decarbonization
From The World Bank, Decarbonizing Development Report, p 32
37
Money is already there
Central Banks
printing money
Pension Funds
lacking
long term investment
opportunities
Real economy
lacking
infrastructure assets
A unique macro-economic opportunity
38
Policy: making a low carbon economy work
39
A carbon floor-price to boost the EU carbon market
40
Thank you for your attention.
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