Eli Noam

Media Futures: A View from the
United States
Eli Noam
Professor of Finance and
Economics
Garrett Professor of Public Policy
and Business Responsibility
Director, Columbia Institute for
Tele-Information
Columbia Business School
Dynamics of the Media and Content
Industries
European Forum for Science and Industry
Brussels
1
25 October 2012
Speed (Kbps) Trends
6
13 Media Industries Investigated
• 1. Content Media
– 1.1 Print Media
• Newspapers
• Magazines
• Books
--1.2 Audiovisual Media
•
•
•
•
Radio
Broadcast TV
Video Channels
Film
• 2. Platform Media
• Wireline Telecom
• Wireless Telecom
• Multichannel Platforms
• Cable and Satellite TV
• 3. Internet Media
• ISPs (also in Platform
Media)
• Search Engines (also in
Content Media)
• Online News Media (also
in Content Media)
9
All Media - Concentration by Region
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2004/05
2008/09
Chart 4
Content Media - Concentration by Region
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2004/05
2008/09
Chart 5
Platform Media - Concentration by Region
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2004/05
2008/09
Chart 6
Content Media - National Media Power Index by Region
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2004/05
2008/09
Chart 11
News Media - Average Concentration by Region
(weighted by usage as news sources)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
World
EU
North America
Asia-Pacific
2004/05
2008/09
Chart 18
Latin America
BRICS
Middle East
Concentration Trends (EU)
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
~2000
~2004
Content Media
~2008
Platform Media
Note: ~2000 number do not reflect data for all 30 countries,
since data is not available for some countries for early years
Chart 42
43
Media Voices by Region
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2004/05
2008/09
Chart 14
Internet Media Concentration by Region
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2004/05
2008/09
Chart 35
Concentration of Print Newspaper vs.
Online News Media
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Newspaper
Online News
Chart 40
80
1st Generation Television:
Broadcasting
http://media-2.web.britannica.com/eb-media/31/71331-004-CDC77097.jpg
101
nd
2
Gen TV: Analog
Multichannel TV
• Cable TV
• DBS/DTH
105
rd
3
•
•
•
•
•
•
Generation of TV
Digital TV
Satellite
Cable
DTV
HDTV
IPTV
Broadcast to mobile
106
P(D): Price of Distribution per Mbit/capita
(Individualized Channels)
108
Price of Media Content per Gbit/cap of
information P(B)
109
109
Fat Pipes Shared
http://www.classic-cable.com/howworks.html
111
Skinny Pipes, Individualized
www.corbis.com
113
th
4
And now, the
Gen
TV
TV over Broadband
Internet
117
Widening-- More TV Options
Are You Ready?
123
10
BBC Online TV
Patalong, Frank (2007). BBC to Broadcast via Youtube. Retrieved from:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,469586,00.html
126
126
http://www.jeffooi.com/2007Q3/hulu.gif
127
Netflix Online
http://www.netflix.com/HowItWorks
130
C. Narrowcasters:
Long Tail Content
132
• In India, a website called
cricvid.com streams live cricket
matches.
134
D. UGC: User
Generated Content
135
http://cafe.naver.com/yoniwoongi.cafe?iframe_url=/ArticleRead.nhn%3Farticleid=6969
•2. Deepening:
–Greater “Richness” of content
139
• I have a whole statistical analysis
and model for this.
• To simplify considerably, it
shows that people’s willingness to
pay per media second is relatively
constant. So if you reduce the bit
distribution cost by 7% a year,
media becomes richer by about
the same, about 7% a year, in
terms of bits per second.
142
Bit Richness of Different Media per
Secon’
143
“Richer” Next Generation TV
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
4K and 8K resolution
2-way interactivity
Multi-lateral interactivity
Personalization
Multi-platform
Asynchronous
3-D
Immersion
144
Flat Screens Big Screens  Greater
Requirement for Sharpness of Pix
145
146
3D-TV
149
Visual Technology Element: Virtual
Reality
150
Virtual Reality (cont.)
151
Virtual Reality (cont.)
152
Virtual Reality (cont.)
Google’s “Project Glass” 2012
153
Visual Technology Element:
Interactive Games
155
Visual Technology Element:
Avatars and Virtual Worlds
157
• In Gladiator, Russell Crowe’s face was digitally
superimposed on others’ bodies.
http://ffmedia.ign.com/filmforce/image/article/569/569303/gladiator_crowe_
tiger_1101791020-000.jpg
160
Marshall McLuhan
163
Participatory Experience
“Pirates of the Caribbean 2”
http://eur.i1.yimg.com/eur.yimg.com/xp/yahoo_manual/20060615/13/1898928065.jpg
165
Participatory Experience in “300”
166
http://www.collider.com/uploads/imageGallery/Three_Hundred_300/300_movie_image_s.jpg
Participatory Sports
167
Content Model: Adult Applications
168
D. Content Model: Interactive and
Immersive Marketing
Test Drive Car
169
F. Content Model: Travelogue
171
G. Content Model: News. (“You are
There”)
173
Education and Training
Simulation
174
“Content Engineering”
•
•
•
•
•
•
Branching
Semantic segmentation
Content processing and semantic analysis
Personalization tools
Participation tools
Authoring tools
179
What are the
Implications for
Media Companies?
194
• In 1977 the credits for the original
Star Wars listed 143 technicians;
in 2003 the CG sequel, Attack of
the Clones, listed 572 technicians.
http://www.moviebadgirls.com/capimage/
Attack_Of_The_Clones_06.JPG
Epstein, Edward Jay, “The Big Picture, The New Logic of Money and Power in
210
Hollywood,” New York: E.J.E. Publications, Ltd., Inc., 2005
Issue:
Interoperability
230
Policy Issue: Inclusion of the Poor
245
245
Policy Issue: Inclusion of the
Digitally Challenged
http://www.copyblogger.com/images/grandma.jpg
246
Policy Issue: Market Power and What
it Does to Entry
247
(http://www.att.com)
Policy Issue:
Protection of
Traditional
Morality
248
(http://www.doomnation.com/)
(http://ctc.sexzine.net/cgi-bin/ctc/ctc.cgi?63914183::46689417062573::http://www.come.to/sexzine)
(http://members.xoom.com/Interleave/frame1.htm)
Policy Issue: Child Protection
Restrictions
http://blog.wired.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/06/20/et_computer_kid_happy_surprised2.jpg
249
Policy Issue: Consumer
Protection
Source: http://www.tvbuys.org/photos/ShamWow%203.jpg
250
Policy Issue: Privacy Protection
251
(http://channel6000.com/news/stories/news-981004-202141.html)
Policy Problem: Globalization, and
Promotion of National Culture
252
Thank you!
End of Talk
[email protected]
268
Overall media concentration for
EU-European countries show high
concentrations (above 1,800) in
Content Media for Ireland, Italy,
Netherlands, Portugal, France,
Spain, and UK. This suggests that
the country size is not
determinative of concentration.
In Europe, average media
concentration relative to North
America is significantly higher
overall (3,273 vs. 1,833), in Content
Media (1,940 vs. 1,274), and in
Platform Media (3,726 vs. 2,130).
Average Content Media concentration
in Europe is also somewhat higher
than in Asia-Pacific.
In Content Media, EU countries
with a high National Media
Power Index are Ireland, France,
Italy, and Netherlands. It is low
in Belgium, Germany, Poland,
and Switzerland. Overall, it is
low for the UK.
The comparison of regions shows
the EU region to be at the level of
world average, but well above
North America. Furthermore, the
EU’s media power index has been
rising for content, though more
slowly than in North America and
Asia-Pacific.
There is a significantly higher
number (40% higher) of media
“voices” in North America than
in Europe. But when we take a
country’s population size into
account and look at “net voices
per capita,” the European
average is over twice as high as
the North American and just
about any region.
This is a positive finding but can be
an explained by the large number
of small but wealthy European
countries with active media relative
to size. As the national EU media
markets increasingly merge into a
single market, the number of voices
per capita is likely to decline,
ceteris paribus.
For news media (as
distinguished from
entertainment and conduit
platforms), the EU region
shows a higher concentration –
by several measures-- than
North America or Asia-Pacific.
High concentration countries are
Ireland, Portugal, Italy, France, and
Finland. Low index countries are
Belgium and Spain. Here, too, there
is no correlation of country size,
whether by geography, population,
or GDP.
In EU countries the share of foreign
ownership (including by other EU
countries) is at much higher than in
North America or Asia Pacific. For
Europe it is particularly high in
Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and the
Netherlands.
Do the new internet media make a
difference to media concentration,
in the way many people hope?
These are the industries that were
believed to be wide open and
competitive, and would open up the
rest of media. But they, too, exhibit
strong concentration trends,
stronger than traditional media.
For Internet Media, concentration
is higher in Europe than in North
America (where it is rising).
When it comes to ISPs only,
European concentration is higher
than that of North America or
Asia-Pacific
For Online News Media,
concentration in Europe is higher
than North America and declining
more slowly. The concentration of
online news is often lower than of
print newspapers. But in other
countries it is actually higher.
This is the case in the US,
Germany, Japan, Spain,
China, and Brazil. One
reason is that while some
media, such as newspapers,
often serve local markets,
online news tends to be
national.
Globally and in Europe,
content media are much
lower in concentration than
distribution media.
Concentration in platform
media is very high. In
Europe, the number is 3726,
but declining.
Concentration is lower for
content media, but increasing.
Worldwide, it is about 2,000. In
Europe it is also about 2,000,
and rising over the decade.
Thus, the Content Media
sector’s concentration trend is
gradually converging with that
of Platform Media.
Traditional (“legacy” media
such as Book Publishing,
Magazines, Film, Newspapers,
and Radio are among the lowest
in concentration globally. In
contrast, the capital-intensive
media industries in telecom,
online, and internet are more
concentrated.
This convergence tendency
suggests that the content media
sector, from a relatively lower
level of concentration, will
move to a higher level that is
more similar to that of the more
capital-intensive platform sector.
The trend of market equilibria of
media structure will therefore favor
higher concentration. Current or
foreseeable technology and
entrepreneurship will not overcome
that problem in a long-term sustained
way. They cannot, by themselves, be
relied on by policy makers to resolve
media concentration problems.
And this is a particular issue
for EU Europe, where media
concentrations are often
higher than they are
observed for the comparable
regions of North America
and Asia-Pacific.
nd
2
Gen TV:
Multichannel TV
• Cable TV
• DBS
• Home Video
298
Audience
X
Y
Z
Content Quality Level
Eli M. Noam, Production
301
301
302
Impact of
Medium on
Content
305
309
310
311
Novels
312
313
Science Fiction: 1902: A Trip To The Moon
316
(http://www.moma.org/collection/filmvideo/pages/melies.trip.html)
Outdoor Drama
1st Western: 1903: “ The
Great Train Robbery ”
(http://memory.loc.gov)
317
Voyeur content
“The Gay Shoe Clerk”: 1905
http://www.last-bid.com/cat-20095/Antiques/Science_Medicine/Other/id3710651581/THE_VINTAGE_MOTION_PICTURES_CD_Ca.1897_1903/
318
Slapstick Action on Silent Film
320
Sound leads to sophisticated
dialogue
http://www.carygrant.net/fotogallery/philadelphiastory/tps6.jpg
322
http://www.johnmariani.com/archive/2007/070513/grapes%20of%20wrath.jpg
323
Next, Television emerged and
enabled the individualization of
black-and-white, low resolution
films
(http://www.sneezes.freeserve.co.uk/teletext/)
Eli M.
Noam, E-Publishing
324
Hollywood
Content
Strategy vs.
TV:
Themes of Sex
& Violence
Eli M. Noam, Film
326
Technology Strategy: Big Screen
Cinemascope
327
Content Strategy: Big Budget
Spectacles
(http://www.lostcitydemille.com/)
Eli M. Noam, Film
328
Technology Strategy: Special
Effects
Eli M. Noam, Film
http://ee.wustl.edu/~soatto/images/3d-glasses.gif
329
“Die Hard”
http://z.about.com/d/movies/1/0/F/7/P/livefreeordiehardpic6.jpg
335
“Mission Impossible 3”
http://www.ilmfan.com/articles/2006/todd_vaziri_mission_impossible_3/images/miss
ion_impossible_3.04.jpg
336
Jules & Jim
338
338
400 Blows
339
339
Upgraded Computer
Animation
342
342
• In Gladiator, Russell Crowe’s face was
digitally superimposed on other bodies
343
http://ffmedia.ign.com/filmforce/image/article/569/569303/gladiator_crowe_tiger_1101791020-000.jpg
343
Simone
http://www.spcgi.com/spboard/id/movie/screen_shot/simon.jpg
346
346
Visual Technology Element: 3-D
349
349
3-D
350
Visual Technology Element: Virtual
Reality
351
351
352
353
Google “Project Glass”
2012
354
http://www.duke.edu/~ppj2/cyberpunk_hacker_by_mercikos.jpg
356
Touch TV
• A device allows viewer to
feel the action
• “Pressing your hand over a
circle in the centre of the
controller will allow a
person to feel the ball as it
is kicked in a football
match.”
• Similarly, built-in
vibrations in seat
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/2916485.stm
357
Visual Technology
Element:
Individualization
and Interactivity
359
Visual Technology Element:
Interactive Games
360
360
361
362
363
364
Visual Technology Element:
Avatars and Virtual Worlds
365
365
These elements will
Create Entertainment of
Total Immersion
•User immersion
•User participation
•Some user control
367
367
“Pirates of the Caribbean 2”
http://eur.i1.yimg.com/eur.yimg.com/xp/yahoo_manual/20060615/13/1898928065.jpg
369
369
“I Am Legend”
http://www.entertainmentwallpaper.com/images/desktops/movie/i_am_legend07.jpg
370
370
“300”
371
http://www.collider.com/uploads/imageGallery/Three_Hundred_300/300_movie_image_s.jpg
371
“Lord of the Rings”
http://www.myfreewallpapers.net/fantasy/pages/lord-of-the-rings-pillars-of-thekings.shtml
372
372
B. Sports
Immersion/Simulation
373
Sports Immersion
http://www.emeraldinsight.com/fig/2840060405003.png
374
377
377
C. Content Model: Adult Applications
378
D. Content Model: Marketing
Test Drive Car
379
381
382
F. Content Model: Travelogue
384
G. Content Model: News. (“You are
There”)
385
H. Content Model: Education and Training
Simulation
386
I. Content Model: Social Network
Community Immersive Sharing
387
Question #4:
Problems
388
1. The Problem
of Globalization
389
Globalization of Ultra-Content is
Unavoidable
390
390
3 Drivers for Globalization of
Next-Gen Content
1. The price of international
transmission is dropping rapidly.
2. Domestic Internet penetrations
are increasing rapidly
3. E-content has economies of
scale.
391
Fear of U.S. as content Hub
396
396
“Deepening”
of Video
Media
425
425
Richness
427
427
1. Better Quality
of Picture
430
SD
HD/DV
D
http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:FRVKCdK0761hBM:http:
//www.djkworld.co.uk/kameo.jpg
433
• Quality
differences
of DVD,
HDTV, and
celluloid
http://people.freenet.de/FoLLgoTT/gladiator_ver
434
gleich.png
434
Comparison of Resolution
4K
Blu-Ray
HD TV
DVD
435
Uncompressed Speed Requirements
for 3-Users Household (in Gbps)
HDTV
4K-TV
10
133 (NHK 530)
439
What Is the Trend
of Media
Deepening?
441
441
Price of Distribution per MB
(Individualized Channels)
xxx
446
446
Price of Media Information per Gbyte
448
448
Marshall McLuhan
452
452