Initiative Fribourg - Zhejiang
Transcription
Initiative Fribourg - Zhejiang
Direction de l’économie et de l’emploi DEE Volkswirtschaftsdirektion VWD Initiative Fribourg Zhejiang __ Une opportunité pour les entrepreneurs fribourgeois Séance d’information, Fribourg, le 21 janvier 2016 - CCIF Contenu __ Initiative Fribourg - Zhejiang: l'agenda 1. Introduction M. le Conseiller d'Etat Beat Volanthen DEE, Canton de Fribourg 2. Le Marché chinois M. Nicolas Musy, Managing Director, Swiss Center Shanghai 3. L'initiative Fribourg-Zhejiang MM. Jean-Luc Mossier et Joël Savary Promotion économique, Canton de Fribourg 4. Questions / réponses 5. Apéritif et networking Initiative Fribourg-Zhejiang 2016 2 2. Introduction __ Un dragon dans le moteur > Baisse de 250 à 80 millions des Chinois vivant dans l’extrême pauvreté entre 1978 et 2015 > 596 milliardaires en 2015 (572 aux Etats-Unis) > 27’000 milliards $ de PIB prévu en 2019 (22’000 pour les USA) > Triplement de la classe moyenne d’ici à 2022 > 46 des 200 villes les plus importantes en PIB seront chinoises en 2025 > En 2025, le PIB de la ville de Tianjin = Suède Initiative Fribourg-Zhejiang 2016 3 2. Introduction __ Fribourg - Zhejiang: 10 ans de relations Initiative Fribourg-Zhejiang 2016 4 2. Introduction __ Fribourg - Zhejiang: 10 ans de relations > 2006: signature mémorandum de coopération > 2009: signature Accord de partenariat et Protocole d'application > 2010: délégation Zhejiang à Energissima > 2011: FR hôte d'honneur foire Ningbo > 2012-2014: échange collaborateurs / stagiaires entre Canton et Province (1 in / 2 out) > Mai 2013: signature MOU > 2006-2015: visites réciproques de diverses délégations Initiative Fribourg-Zhejiang 2016 5 2. Introduction __ Une opportunité à saisir ! > Faire profiter les entrepreneurs fribourgeois de nos contacts au Zhejiang > Donner une impulsion pour faciliter l'accès au marché chinois > Un soutien à la diversification pour les industries exportatrices Initiative Fribourg-Zhejiang 2016 6 3. Le marché Chinois __ M. Nicolas Musy, Managing Director, SCS Initiative Fribourg-Zhejiang 2016 7 Le Marché Chinois? Où va-t-il … – le point de vue business Fribourg Zhejiang Forum 21 Janvier 2016 One of the Authors § Nicolas Musy, Physics Engineer, Swiss Institute of Technology Lausanne (EPFL), Alumni Award 2004. EPFL China Coordinator since 2006. § Business in China since 1986, living in China since 1988. § Established first Swiss industrial SME in China (Nove Marzo, knitwear for export, 1993). Founder of www.LXPrecision.com (first foreign hiprecision turned part company in China). § Swiss Center Shanghai Founder & Managing Director, 8 years VP SwissCham China. § Founding Partner of China Integrated Supported about 300 SMEs’ China projects in the past 15 years. Where is China Heading? § The Economy from a Business Point of View: § China’s is not slowing down for foreign businesses § SMEs are doing well § One of the best global opportunity for businesses § Reforms 2.0 § Competitiveness: Beyond Labor Costs § Technology to Play a Central Role § A New Opportunity: Cross Border e-Commerce Accelerating sales … Source: Swiss China Survey 2014 … and profits even more ! Source: Swiss China Survey 2014 Consistently high priority for investments Source: Swiss China Survey 2014 Source: Swiss China Survey 2014 China’s Absolute GDP Growth is Up! “How confident are you that your operations in China will be successful …” Swiss Companies Source: Swiss China Survey 2014 One of the Best Global Business Opportunity One of the Best Global Business Opportunity => Reforms 2.0 Reforms 2.0: reversing the state system § Growth for prosperity of the Chinese people is a condition for stability (21st century version of “Mandate from Heaven“) § Government investment has maintained growth since 2008 § State banks receive citizens’ savings at fixed rates § Banks provide loans to SOE and to local governments § But government debt is increasing too fast § 13% in 6 months, reaching 56% of GDP in 2013 § To maintain growth without growing government debt … § For efficiency, deregulate the economy but regulate the government! § Encourage private investments & consumption (=> increased consumer goods imports) § Develop technology to increase : § productivity (of production and economy in general), robotics § added value of products – Eg. Xiaomi § New products and companies “mass entrepreneurship” +44% company registrations Growth of Government Debt & Credit A Quadruple Challenge ! § Construction has created a huge inventory => negative growth! § Working population is peaking => no growth from more workers § Rising wages for consumption => margins go down and efficiency must increase § Changing a system for 1.4 Bio people Reforms 2.0 in 3 Steps 1. Eradicate Government Corruption – Recover popular support ("abt 90%" approval rate of Xi Jinping) – Bring administration in line => ensure implementation of new policies – Get rid of internal opposition 2. Establish « Rule by Law » – Ensure stable clean government – Establish a level playing field for businesses – Motivate entrepreneurs 3. Grow the Economy Sustainably – Financial system reform (rational allocation of capital) – “Mass Entrepreneurship”: Indigenous technology development – Promotion of domestic consumption (increase of minimum wages, medical & social insurance net) – Ensure restoration of the environment (clean- & green-tech investments) While the first set of reforms focused on bringing in foreign capital & exporting, this one focuses on boosting domestic firms & consumption Competitiveness: Beyond Labor Costs Productivity balance labor cost increases § Salary increases – 6% in Shanghai – Close to 10% overall – Min wages +12-13% § But Producer Price Index – +15% since 1996 – -1.4% in 2013, -3.3% in Dec 2014 § Smart Machines are coming – Textiles back to USA despite 1 to 6 salary difference – Automation is a must in China Productivity Gain is now the Daily Bread - the end of easy money … § Unit costs (of labor, rent, …) are increasing for industrial and service companies (service more than industrial) § Prices are stable (services) or decreasing (industrial) § To maintain margin, there is only efficiency: – Develop Lean Management – Automate – Reduce waste § … and go up the value chain: – Increase quality level – Produce more difficult, knowledge intensive, sophisticated products & services • But it sounds familiar: we know how to do that very well … ! China Producer Price Index 1996-2015 Productivity Gain: a huge potential Technology will Play a Central Role Historical High-tech leader § From 8th until 15th Century, China was the world’s technological leader § Europe obtained most modernization technologies from China between the 11th and early15th Centuries § Technologies include: § § § § § § Porcelain (“Chinaware”) Compass Gunpowder Moveable type and paper Iron production (blast furnaces) Naval technology (multi-mast, fixed rudder, clocks) § In 1400, China had a sea-faring navy able to travel around the world … 30 Scientific Production: Quality 31 Chinese International Patents Filings § § ZTE, Huawei, No 2 & No 3 in 2014 for international patent filing In top 15 for international filings: 5 Japanese, 4 Europeans, 2 US, 2 Koreans Chinese Companies Technology Capabilities are being Pushed § R&D Centers benefit from import tax exemption and tax reduction § Hi-Tech Status offers 15% corporate income tax (instead of 25%) § Science & Technology Budget is growing 20% per year § Grants are provided directly to innovative enterprises & start-ups Eventually they will reach Korea’s, than Japan’s level (but with more flexibility & creativity … ) A New Opportunity: Cross Border e-Commerce No Product Registration, No Special Labeling, No … § E-commerce is adopted fastest in China. On singles day, Alibaba sold for USD 14 Bio. (in 1 day!), 60% more than the same day, a year ago § Since 18 months cross-border ecommerce is possible § No registration, no specific China requirements, no need to set-up a company § No import tax/VAT for cheap items! En Résumé Unfair Advantages will Diminish (to a point) § Level playing field § No more corruption on government contracts § However: § Government innovation grants are most often provided only to Chinese-owned companies (or joint-ventures) § Government tenders favor indigenous technologies and brands Competition will grow further, keeping prices stable! IP Infringement & Corrup5on The 1.5 Bio Consumer Market is Finally Arriving! Thank You! 4. L'initiative Fribourg - Zhejiang __ Objectif de l'initiative > Offrir aux bénéficiaires une opportunité de développer leurs activités, nouvelles ou existantes > sur le marché chinois en général et dans la Province de Zhejiang en particulier Initiative Fribourg-Zhejiang 2016 41 4. L'initiative Fribourg - Zhejiang __ Bénéficiaires > Toute entreprise sise dans le Canton de Fribourg > qui peut démontrer que l'initiative lui permettra de se diversifier et d'innover, dans le but de maintenir ou de créer de nouveaux emplois dans le Canton > Le projet sera élaboré avec le soutien de la Promotion économique et soumis à la DEE pour approbation > Les projets regroupant plusieurs entreprises (approche cluster) seront favorisés > p. ex. des sociétés du domaine alimentaire qui mettraient en commun des ressources (logistique, distributeurs locaux) pour commercialiser leurs produits Initiative Fribourg-Zhejiang 2016 42 4. L'initiative Fribourg - Zhejiang __ Concept de l'initiative - généralités > La DEE met à disposition son réseau de contacts (Province Zhejiang) > contacts avec des entreprises, organisations, académies > résolution de problèmes administratifs, ... > La DEE partage une infrastructure (bureau, salle de conférence) mise à sa disposition par la Promotion économique de la Province (ZIIPC), ou le cas échéant par le Swiss Center Shanghai ou d'autres organisations > La DEE intègre un ou plusieurs représentant(s) de l'entreprise lors de visites officielles aux autorités de la Province Initiative Fribourg-Zhejiang 2016 43 4. L'initiative Fribourg - Zhejiang __ Concept de l'initiative - aspects financiers La DEE prend en charge: > Jusqu'à 50% (mais au maximum CHF 25'000) des coûts d'accompagnement du projet par le Swiss Center Shanghai, ou le cas échéant par d'autres organisations > Coûts de l'infrastructure des locaux partagés par projet pour: > un an au maximum > une place de travail (bureau) Initiative Fribourg-Zhejiang 2016 44 4. L'initiative Fribourg - Zhejiang __ Prochaines étapes > Dès maintenant > Discussion des projets bilatéralement avec PromFR > 13-15 avril 2016 > En cas d'intérêt et de projets concrets, visite à Hangzhou/ Zhejiang d'une délégation emmenée par M. le CE Beat Vonlanthen pour lancer officiellement l'initiative Initiative Fribourg-Zhejiang 2016 45 5. Questions / Réponses __ Initiative Fribourg-Zhejiang 2016 46 6. Merci de votre attention et gānbēi! __ Initiative Fribourg-Zhejiang 2016 47