`Dealing with uncertainty in adapting water policy and management
Transcription
`Dealing with uncertainty in adapting water policy and management
‘Dealing with uncertainty in adapting water policy and management to climate change’ Ad Jeuken French Institute in Amsterdam, December 3, 2015 Deltares https://www.deltares.nl/en/topdossiers/climate-adaptation/ Main questions • Impacts of Climate (change)? • Uncertainty in impacts • Strategies to adapt under uncertainty The five reasons for concern 2003-2012 4 Climate changes and water cycle More /extreme storms? More/intense rainfall Spatial developments Sealevel rise (… cm/100y) Increased erosion Climate changes in a Delta July 2013 Salt intrusion Subsidence More summer drought Increased river discharge Decreased river discharge Number of great weather-related catastrophes 1950-2010 16 Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) 14 Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) 12 10 8 6 4 2 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Munich Re GeoRisks Research, January 2011 Losses from large weather-related catastrophes 1980-2010 Overall losses Insured losses [all 2010 values] ~82 billion (2001-10) ~26 billion (1980s) Munich Re GeoRisks Research, August 2011 Can extreme events be attributed to human induced CC (Wehner, Berkely)? See: Pardeep Pall, Michael Wehner, Dáithí Stone (2014) Probabilistic Extreme Event Attribution in Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events, Richard Grojahn, Jianping Li, Richard Swinbank, Hans Volkert, editors. Cambridge University Press. In press. Events with likely human caused increased risk (Wehner, Berkely)? Role of economic development Miami Beach 1926 Wendler collection Miami Beach 2006 Joel Gratz © 2006 Comparison: projected loss change in 2040 450 +170% 400 Loss change [%] 350 300 250 +30% +15% +65% tropical storm extra tropical storm flood 9 studies 6 studies 200 150 100 50 0 6 studies socioeconomic change 6 studies Bouwer 2013, Risk Analysis So every reason to adapt FROM IPCC AR5: Adaptation: The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects. As decision maker you are an active participant in this process The future is UNCERTAIN Time’s up, boys! Man, that is an impressive (climate) model! Source:http://www.ideachampions.com Society and environment INTERACT There always will be (Mal)ADAPTATION REACTIVE OR PROACTIVE (strategy) Typology of climate change impacts We can distinguish three types of climate change impacts: 1. Gradual (example: sea level rise) 2. Stochastic effect (examples: increased storminess, more heavy rain showers) 3. Tipping point (example: permafrost disappears) Storminess in Europe: no trend visible Sea level rise: clear trend July 2013 Tipping point Exercise 2 Thinking experiment: time series of discharge • • • • Real statistics of discharge Ensemble projections Mixed with and without CC Think as a decision maker relying on: • Monitoring • Science • Past experience defining critical level Thinking experiment (1) Given the uncertainties about the future, what would you do? Yearly maximum Rhine river discharge at Lobith (m3/s) 20000 Relevant developments The current cabinet came into force in 2010. Policy focus and constraints have changed. Critical value Important are the decentralisation of spatial planning and environmental policy. The limited financial conditions require prioritisation. Safety first. Enough fresh water supply is important for economy, society and the environment. Delta Programme 2012 18000 Yearly maximum discharge (m3/s) 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 year Haasnoot et al. (2012) Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas 2070 2080 2090 2100 This was an experiment. What would be different in reality? • Science and institutes, projections • International political, media context • Observations, trends POTENTIAL IMPACT Stragies to cope with uncertainty RESILIENT & FLEXIBLE ROBUST STRATEGIES FLEXIBLE STRATEGIES EFFICIENT STRATEGIES CONFIDENCE Improve resilience 1 januari 2008 Many local private solution be alternative for large scale infrastructure? Many local solutions Climate and global Change Could make a difference Suitability map for local scale adaptation Elevated building 1 januari 2008 What is Green Adaptation, Nature based solutions? “Green Adaptation is using nature for your benefit where you can, and if that is not possible, at least implementing traditional adaptation measures in an ecologically optimized way.” Green Adaptation approaches: • Use ecosystem functions to enhance safety, food and freshwater security, and protect livelihoods. • Include, maintain and strengthen ecosystem functions in an integrative approach to adapt to climate threats • Combine ‘classic’ engineering know-how with site specific natural components and inherent natural dynamics 4 december 2015 Green Adaptation approaches Climate buffers Flexible strategies: f.e. delta program NL And reduce regret by combining investments: f.e. Scheveningen boulevard City of The Hague Waterboard Delfland Rijkswaterstaat Province South Holland 7 November 2013 Floods Spatial planning Water supply The Issues of Jakarta Traffic “too much, too little, too dirty, too busy” Catchment Subsidence Water quality Solid waste What are investment opportunities outside dikes? Coastal Defense Additional Measures Investment Opportunities Sea and River Dikes Water Supply Land Reclamation Retention Ponds Sewerage and Waste Toll Roads Pumping Stations Resettlement Deep Seaport 27 Thank you