Presentation - Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversité

Transcription

- Scenarios of biodiversity in sub-Saharan Africa Research needs and available tools:
a case study of surface-water impacts on
biodiversity in the context of climate change
Simon Chamaillé-Jammes
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
ATELIER RÉGIONAL /// REGIONAL WORKSHOP
SCÉNARIOS DE LA BIODIVERSITÉ AFRICAINE /// SCENARIOS OF
BIODIVERSITY CHANGE IN AFRICA
25-27 MARS 2013  LIBREVILLE - GABON  25-27 MARCH 2013
Drivers of biodiversity change
Climate drivers
Direct anthropic
drivers
biodiversity
(genes to biomes)
+
spatial
organization
Species interactions
tim
e
Time
An example:
expectations for biodiversity under various scenarios of surface-water availability
•
•
Savanna and Sahelian systems are semi-arid to arid systems
Critical importance of surface-water (distribution and dynamics) for animal biodiversity
and ecosystem functioning
An example:
expectations for biodiversity under various scenarios of surface-water availability
•
•
Savanna and Sahelian systems are semi-arid to arid systems
Critical importance of surface-water (distribution and dynamics) for animal biodiversity
and ecosystem functioning
Africa
Southern Africa
Strong reliance on
non-river sources (ponds...)
De Wit & Stankiewicz Science 2006
Impact of climatic fluctuations
Chamaillé-Jammes et al. 2007 Austral Ecol
data from Hwange National Park (Zimbabwe)
A key driver of biodiversity … and of human development
Permanent water sources are a critical need for human populations
(human, livestock and agricultural needs)
→ Potential for conflicts in at wildlife/human interface outside PAs
“wilderness”
Natural ponds,
variability
Unmanaged protected area,
isolated places
Hands-on managed protected areas
Natural ponds,
boreholes & dam,
less variable
Communal or private;
livestock, agriculture
few natural ponds,
boreholes & dam,
little variability
An
gr thr
ad op
ien iza
tio
t
n
Town
“wilderness”
Natural ponds,
variability
Unmanaged protected area,
isolated places
St
re
ng
Hands-on
th managed protected areas
of
Natural
St ponds,
an
re & dam,
thr
boreholes
ng
op
th
less variable
ic
of
dr
cli
iveCommunal or private;
ma
rlivestock,
s
te
agriculture
dr
ive ponds,
few natural
rs
boreholes & dam,
little variability
An
gr thr
ad op
ien iza
tio
t
n
Town
What information and tools are required ?
●
Systematic review of surface-water effect on biodiversity
we know well: water needs for some biota, impact on distribution of
herbivores affecting habitats and ecosystem functioning
●
Down-scaled climate scenarios
●
Local socio-economic scenarios
●
Identification of the role of biodiversity in
driving local- to regional- land use and land
management (PAs vs. other land use)
●
●
●
●
Models of surface-water driven biodiversity changes
under contrasted scenarios
●
●
●
●
le
Models of surface-water driven biodiversity changes
a
sc
l
under contrasted scenarios
a
rk
o
w
n
U
le
b
a
a
e
e
–n
d
s
ca
e
ie
d
stu
b
o
l
tg
t
s
r
i
sf
A current study in Hwange National Park (Zimbabwe),
prospective, and challenges ahead
seasonal river
artificial
waterholes
Effectif estimé
Creation of the
park
Surface-water definitively
contributes to a 30-fold
increase in elephant density
Homogeneity
log(Species)
We are currently developing an understanding
of the biodiversity effects of water provision practice
Broken trees (%)
Distance to water (m)
Emphasis on extreme events
even in places with little change in mean climate, droughts may become more frequent / severe
Chamaillé-Jammes et al. 2007 J. Arid Environ.
data from Hwange National Park (Zimbabwe)
particularly acute problem for drinking water, as animals
(and livestock/people) can't go long without water
Where is this system going ? How to know it, and deal with it ?
Hotter and drier climate
→ sustainability of the current practice, ability to mitigate changes ?
•
•
Hydrological models of water dynamics are easily implemented
Tools to design spatially-explicit optimal biodiversity-oriented
management strategies may exist
•
•
•
But need to include direct constraints
tourism, logistics, rising fuel costs...
•
And possibly indirect constraints,
particularly those originated from regional dynamics
perception, acceptability of the PA by neighboring communities
under certain scenarios
•
•
•
But need to include direct constraints
tourism, logistics, rising fuel costs...
•
And possibly indirect constraints,
particularly those originated from regional dynamics
perception, acceptability of the PA by neighboring communities
under certain scenarios
Most of these constraints originates (on the short-term)
from local to regional (not global) processes
→ A model-aided co-construction of scenarios is required
Way forward
Scenarios for global processes (particularly climate) are available
Tools to build ecological and social local scenarios are available,
and we are able to make people interact within the scenario-building process
Need for interdisciplinary studies
We need to bring experts together at common sites,
systematically review the available knowledge,
fully integrate stakeholders in the scenario-building process
Build “definitive” studies that would
(1) be credible (i.e. integrated) scenarios,
(2) acknowledge uncertainty,
(3) provide exemplary case studies
Thank you / Merci

Presentation - Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversité

Transcription

Documents pareils

Kids learn French! - Spiritridge Elementary School

forum d`affaires france-ethiopie - Accueil Business France Events

Ethical Business and Biodiversity

SCENARIOS OF AFRICAN BIODIVERSITY

wt55_releve_de_conclusion_en

The BiodivERsA database: a webportal to identify resources and

SPECIFIC EQUIPMENT AND EXPERTISE PhD STUDENTS SKILLS

Critical limits to environmental change for the Mediterranean Region