Macroéconomie

Macroéconomie
ARMENIA'S ECONOMY GROWS 2.6% IN 2010
- GDP: (in current prices): 3.5 trillion Drams (+2.6%)
- GDP's deflator index: 110.2%
- Per capita GDP: 1,077,961 Drams or $2,885 or 2,173 Euro.
- Volumes of Industrial Production: 824 billion AMD (+9,7%)
- Electricity Production: 6491.3 kwh (+14,5%)
- Agriculture: 638 billion (-13,5%)
- Construction: 580 billion AMD (-3,3%)
- Retail Trade Turnover: 1,160 billion AMD (+0,6%)
- Services: 789 billion (+3,8%)
- Consumer price index:
*December 2010 reported to December 2009: 109,4
*Year 2010 reported to year 2009: 108,2
- Producer Price index for industrial products: 122,7
- Number of Officially registered Unemployed: 78,800
- Average nominal monthly salary: 108,852 (+6,7) 292$
- Exports: 1011,4 m USD(+42,4%)
- Imports: 3782,9 m USD +12,9%)
- Exchange rate of AMD to USD: 373,66
ARMENIAN INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT GROWS 9.7% IN 2010
- Total output in 2010: 824.292 billion dram.
-Mining industry +24.3% to 145.537 billion dram,
-Manufacturing sector +11.3% to 544.664 billion dram
-Utilities sector (electricity, gas, steam, conditioned air) -ll 10.3% to
116.156 billion dram.
-Revenue from water, waste processing and management + 6.7% to 17.9 billion
dram.
ARMENIA'S DOMESTIC TRADE GROWS 4.2% TO AMD 1779.4 BILLION IN 2010
(+4.2%)
Retail trade: AMD 1159.8 billion (+0.6% compared with 200%) and
accounted for 65.2% of the trade turnover inside the country in 2010.
Wholesale trade: amounted to AMD 557.8 billion and made up 31.3% of the
total domestic trade turnover.
Trade in shops constituted 60.4% of the domestic trade turnover.
Trade in markets totaled 172.1 billion and made up 14.8% of the country's
domestic trade in 2010. ($1 = AMD 364.75).
11.7% GROWTH RECORDED IN ARMENIAN STATE BUDGET REVENUES IN
2010
- Budget revenues: AMD 755.8bln,
- Budget expenditures: AMD 856.8bln: +11.7% (AMD 79.4bln)
-
Tax revenues: state duties and social payments: +11.9% (+AMD 74.2bln),
Other revenues: +17% (+AMD 7.3bln)
Official grants: -25.5% or AMD 2.1bln,
Deficit: AMD 101bln
To finance the deficit, AMD 109.7bln and 8.7bln were allocated from
internal and external sources respectively.
Armenian Budget Revenues Rise By 11.7% In 2010 To 755.8
Billion Drams
- Tax proceeds +11.9% or 74.2 billion Drams,
- Poceeds from customs dues and mandatory social payments +17% or 7.3
billion Drams,
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- Proceeds from official grants -25.5% or 2.1 billion Drams.
Taxes, customs dues and mandatory payments accounted for 95% of all
revenues.
off-budget funds of pubic organizations: . 19.3 billion Drams
Taxes: 594.1 billion Drams (+13.7%). The growth was secured largely by
increase in the volume of collected VAT and income taxes.
VAT: 301.7 billion Drams or 50.8% of taxes (+18.7%)
Excise taxes: 48.1 billion Drams or 8.1%
Profit taxes: 77.8 billion Drams or 13.1%
Income taxes: 73.9 billion or 12.4%
Customs dues: 29.4 billion Drams
State dues: 20 billion Drams
Fixed taxes: 22 billion Drams
Nature protection taxes: 9.1 billion Drams
Mandatory payments: 105.3 billion Drams, as much as projected for the full
year.
Official grants: 6.1 billion Drams, 52.6% of what the government had
planned to receive.
The 2010 budget revenues: 742 billion Drams
The 2010 budget spending: 935.5 billion Drams
The 2010 budget deficit: 193.4 billion Drams
1 US$ = 363,02 Drams).
MINISTER OF FINANCE: SHARE OF TAXES IN GDP 2011 WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED ABOUT 17%
Armenia’s largest Taxpayers
ARG GAS DISTRIBUTION TOPS LIST OF ARMENIA'S 1000 LARGEST CORPORATE TAXPAYER
IN 2010 according the State Revenue Committee (SRC)
- ArmRosGazprom (ARG): 16.5 billion Drams (12.6 as taxes and 3.9 as customs
duties). The company's tax contributions, however, dropped from 18.4
billion Drams, paid in 2009, nonetheless, it ended up at the top of the
2010 taxpayer list.
Over 2 billion Drams were direct taxes (income and profit taxes) and 14.3
billion as indirect taxes, including VAT and excise taxes; also 216.5
million Drams were collected as duties and other mandatory payments.- Alex Grig company is second in the SRC's 2010 rankings, with almost 16
billion Drams (-0.1 billion). 3.1 billion Drams as taxes and 12.9 as Custom
duties.
The country's top ten taxpayers list comprises also
- ArmenTel telecommunications company (trading as Beeline) is the third. 14.8
billion Drams as various taxes, up from 14 billion Drams paid in 2009.
- K-Telecom (trading as VivaCell) is fourth with almost 13.6 billion Drams
paid in 2010, down from 15.9 billion Drams paid in 2009.
- Zangezour coper and molybdenum combine: 12.6 billion billion Drams
- Flash oil products trader: 11.7 billion Drams
- City Petrol Group oil trader: 10.7 billion Drams
- Electrical Networks of Armenia: which has paid 7.75 billion Drams.
- Overall the 1000 largest taxpayers paid last year 432.8 billion Drams, up
from 382.8 billion Drams in 2009.
According to the Ministry of Finance, 594.1 billion Drams were collected
last year as taxes and state duties. Proceeds from taxes and customs duties
rose 13.7% from 2009 due to increased VAT and income taxes.$1-364.75 Drams)
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GROWTH REGISTERED IN IMPORT VOLUMES OF ARMENIA'S 343 LARGEST
TAXPAYERS IN
The import volumes totaled AMD 78.7bln +23.2%
The export volumes totaled AMD 27.5bln +7.8%.
3.3% GROWTH RECORDED IN REMITTANCES TO ARMENIA IN 2010
($51.4mln)
Russia ($1,114.1mln), United States ($124.4mln) and United Arab Emirates
($26.2mln). At the same time, remittances from Turkey amounted to
$2,639thous.
Besides, 2.8% drop was recorded in the amount of remittances from Armenia,
totaling $731.6mln in January-December 2010 against $752.4mln during the
same period in 2009.
The net cash inflow increased by 8.8% during the reporting period,
amounting to $895.5mln against $823.3mln in January-December 2009.
EMIGRATION FIGURES INFLATED IN ARMENIA
Hayots Ashkharh (Armenian World) newspaper.
Even government agencies do not deny the fact. However, the figures are
often inflated for political purposes.
The inaccuracies in statistical data aroused suspicion.
- The statistical data included even the crews of Armenian Airlines and Air
Armenia (217 people) that allegedly left the country. They carried out
about 27,000 flights.
- Also, Armenian citizens cold not actually leave the country because of
inaccuracies in their documents. However, their names were not removed from
the emigration lists. About 17,000 Armenian citizens that did not actually
leave the country were registered as emigrants in the database.
- People having dual citizenship, with most of the living abroad, were
included in the database as well.
Summing up, the newspaper writes that the inaccuracies resulted in inflated
emigration figures in the database. However, 31,000 Armenian citizens
actually left the country.
GOVERNMENT TO INTERVENE IN PRICING
/MAR 10/Tert.am/
The Armenian cabinet adopted Thursday a decision on the price regulation
policy, allowing for a state intervention in case of an unreasonable price
increase.
The government will be authorized to take appropriate measures in defining
maximum prices in case of a 30% or more increase in retail prices.
ARMENIAN CENTRAL BANK RAISES RATES FURTHER AS INFLATION
INTENSIFIES
This further monetary tightening closely followed the publication of
February inflation data by the Armenian National Statistical Service, which
showed that
consumer prices in the month soared by 12.4% year-on-year (y/y),
following an increase of 10.6% y/y in January. In month-on-month (m/m)
comparison, prices rose by 1.9%, having now advanced by 4.8% during the
first two months of the year.
The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) has increased its refinancing interest
rate by 50 basis points, Reuters reports. This decision followed a similar
move taken in February, and brought the policy rate to 8.25%.
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As expected, this rapid gain in consumer prices can mainly be traced back
to increases in the cost of food; this surged by 18.8% y/y in February,
bringing the cumulative gain since the beginning of the year to 7.0%.
Indeed, the CBA also identified high global food and commodity prices for
the intense inflation pressures, noting that the contribution of food on
overall consumer price inflation in February stood at around 10.1
percentage points. Inflation substantially exceeds the CBA's target range
of 4.5% with a fluctuation band of 1.5 percentage points either side, and
the central bank outlined further gradual tightening of monetary policy in
the coming months, in order to bring the inflation rate back within the
target range in the second half of this year.
Significance:The CBA's monetary policy has now clearly entered a new cycle,
tightening from February, following eight months of stable rates. The
central bank seems to suggest that the extremely high food and commodity
prices have started to have some impact on inflation expectations as well,
thus reaching beyond their cost-side inflationary effects. On the other
hand, given Armenia's still relatively undeveloped financial environment,
the key function of the policy rates is to signal the monetary authorities'
own inflation expectations. Pressures from commodity prices are likely to
ARMENIA GETS OVER $ 45 MILLION ASSISTANCE FROM U.S.
/JAN 24/news.am/
Armenia will get $ 45.2 assistance from U.S. for democracy development in
2011, foreignassistance.gov website says.
USD 20 MILLION TO BE ALLOCATED TO INCREASE ARMENIA'S RURAL
COMMUNITIES' COMPETITIVENESS
/JAN 25/PanARMENIAN.Net/
Yerevan hosted discussions on the program on increase of competitiveness
and rural communities resource management to be implemented in 2011-2015 in
Armenia.
The program cost is USD 20 million, with USD 13,9 million to be allocated
to improve the system of livestock farming and community pastures
management.
USD 2,5 million will be provided for improvement of agriculture-promoting
services quality. USD 2,1 million will be funded for tender grant programs,
with USD 1,4 million to be allocated to implementation of program,
monitoring and assessment. The Office for Agricultural Reform
Implementation will be in charge of the program.
Activité de construction
POPULATION-FINANCED CONSTRUCTION IN ARMENIA SURGES 52.2% IN
2011 JANUARY
EXPERT: ARMENIA'S MORTGAGE PORTFOLIO EXPECTED TO GROW 50% TO
AMD 180 BILLION BY 2014
ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT SIMPLIFIES PROCEDURE ON DELIVERY OF
PERMISSION FOR BUILDING
AFFORDABLE HOUSING FOR YOUNG FAMILIES PROGRAM FUND TO REACH
AMD 4BLN IN 2011
223 loans at the total amount of AMD 1.7bln were allocated in Armenia in
2010 under this program, with the state subsidies amounting to AMD 35mln.
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In 2011 the amount of state subsidies will make AMD 88mln, of which AMD
22mln will be allocated in the first quarter of 2011. 300 loans will be
allocated in 2011, while the program fund will be increased by AMD 1bln to
reach AMD 4-4.5bln.
NUMBER OF POOR PEOPLE INCREASED IN ARMENIA
/MAR 2/A1Plus.am/
"Every fifth Armenian lives in abject poverty, which has raised the level
of suicides,"
"Actually, the number of poor people is more than reported officially.
Poverty has become our first and foremost concern.
"The economic global crisis has had its direct influence on Armenia and its
economy. The government has directed AMD 44 billion to the social sphere.
To reduce poverty we must develop our economy," said Davtyan.
Investissements étrangers dans les 3 pays du Sud Caucase
En 2009
Arménie : 853 m USD
Azerbaïdjan : 5 468 m USD
Géorgie : 759 m USD
Au 1er trimestre 2010
Arménie : 116 m USD (-12%)
– Russie 51 m ; France 33 m ; Pays-Bas : 31 m.
Azerbaïdjan : 494 m USD (+66%) – Grande Bretagne 247 m ; USA 89 m ; Japon 46 m ;
Norvège 29 m ; Turquie 28 m.
Géorgie : 75,7 m USD (-42%)
- Turquie 20 m : Tchéquie 19 m ; Egypte 18 m.
Les autorités géorgiennes s’attendent, durant le 3ème trimestre, à des investissements
supérieurs à 1 milliard USD de FDI (Fonds de Développement International – Groupe de la
banque Mondiale)
Classifications internationales
* ARMENIA RANKED 36TH FREEST AMONG 179 COUNTRIES IN 2011 INDEX
OF ECONOMIC FREEDOM
* ARMENIA RANKED AS 'PARTLY FREE' COUNTRY IN FREEDOM HOUSE
SURVEY
* Classification selon la compétitivité (139 pays)
Arménie : 98ème sur 139
USA : 40ème – Turquie : 83ème – Azerbaïdjan : 90ème – Ukraine : 135ème – Russie : 128ème
* Classification « Doing business » (183 pays)
« Doing Business » = Facilité d’entreprendre = plusieurs critères prise en compte :
Facilité d’entreprendre une affaire, facilité d’obtenir un permis de construire et d’enregistrer
une propriété, facilité d’obtenir un crédit, de payer des impôts, protection des investissements
et d’autres critères.
- Arménie : 48ème sur 183 au lieu de 43ème en 2009
- Les 10 premiers : Singapour, Hong-Kong, Nouvelles Zélande, Royaume Uni, Etats-Unis,
Canada, Norvège, Irlande, Australie.
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- Pays de la région : Géorgie (12ème), Azerbaïdjan (54ème), Turquie (65ème), Russie (123ème),
Iran (129ème )
1)Classification de UNDP (United Nations Development Program).
* Classification selon le Développement Humain (169 pays)
Les critères pris en compte : niveau de vie, sécurité sociale, soins de santé, éducation,
développement culturel, taux de criminalité, protection de l’environnement, participation de la
population aux décisions (démocratie).
- Arménie : 76ème sur 169 pays
- Les 10 premiers : Norvège, Australie, Nouvelle Zélande, Etats-Unis, Irlande, Lichtenstein,
Pays-Bas, Canada, Suède, Allemagne.
Le panier de la ménagère
• Produits alimentaires : 28 064,4 AMD (56€) au 3ème trimestre
26 485,4 AMD (53€) au 2ème trimestre
• Tous les produits : 43 499,8 AMD par mois (87€) ; 492 629 1 AMD par an.
•
Dépenses annuelles par personne pour les produits suivants :
- Pain : 35200 AMD (70,4 €)
- Viande : 78400 AMD (156,8 €)
- Lait : 23800 AMD (47,6 €)
- Fromages : 11800 AMD (23,6 €)
- Pommes de terre : 22700 AMD (45,4 €)
- Légumes : 28900 AMD (57,8 €)
- Fruits : 39400 AMD (78,8 €)
- Sucre : 600 AMD (1,2 €)
- Oeufs : 7300 AMD (14,6 €)
- Huiles : 4800 AMD (9,6 €)
4) Echanges commerciaux avec l’Union européenne durant les 9 premiers
mois de 2010
Flux totaux : 1 085,5 mrds USD (+29,1%), soit 32,1% de l’ensemble des échanges.
Exportations : 361,4 m USD (+65,9%) soit 51,2% de l’ensemble des exportations
Importations : 724,1 m USD (+16,2%) , soit 22,5% des importations
Les principaux partenaires européens de l’ensemble des échanges
- Allemagne : 244,7 m USD ou 7,2%
- Bulgarie : 189,7 m USD ou 5,6%
- Belgique : 114,7 m USD ou 3,4%
- Italie : 88,5 m USD ou 2,6%
- Pays-Bas : 82,4 m USD ou 2,4%
- Roumanie : 62,6 m USD ou 1,8%
EU AND ARMENIA SIGN A MEMORANDUM ON 100 MILLION EUROS OF
FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO ARMENIA
/FEB 18/armradio.am/
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In the form of a loan of up to $65 million and a grant of up to $35
million.
The planned assistance is part of the external financing provided to cover
Armenia's balance of payment needs in 2011.
ARMENIA SIGNS LOAN AGREEMENTS WITH WORLD BANK
Three agreements in the frameworks the 2009-12 loan package, the Finance
Ministry's press service reported.
The first agreement is the Development Policy's Second Program which
envisages a $25 million budgetary loan aimed at reducing poverty and
boosting economy in Armenia.
The second agreement on Innovative Program for Electronic Society envisages
financial assistance in the amount of $24 million: development of e-society
infrastructures, promotion of enterprise innovation and project management.
The third agreement envisages additional funding for the healthcare
system's second program. The allocated sum under the project is $19 million
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