International Youth Day: Despite interest, African youth not

Dispatch No. 41 | 12 August 2015
International Youth Day: Despite interest,
African youth not connecting with political
processes
Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 41 | Sibusiso Nkomo and Eleanor du Plooy
Summary
A majority of African youth are interested in public affairs and discuss politics with those
around them, but relatively low levels of civic engagement and political participation
suggest a disconnect between the continent’s “youth bulge” and democratic processes.
These results of a new Afrobarometer analysis are being released in observance of
International Youth Day (12 August), whose 2015 theme focuses on youth civic engagement
and its implications for development. (For more on International Youth Day, please visit
http://www.un.org/youthenvoy/2015/06/join-international-youth-day-2015-celebrations/.)
Data from six rounds of Afrobarometer surveys in more than 30 African countries suggest that
African youth are not fully engaged in formal political processes, such as voting in elections,
as well as in more informal modes of engagement, such as meeting with community
members and contacting political representatives. Youth participation in protests or
demonstrations seems to vary with in-country conditions, and youth overwhelmingly reject
the use of violence for political ends.
Afrobarometer survey
Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan research network that conducts public attitude
surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues across more
than 30 countries in Africa. Five rounds of surveys were conducted circa 2000, 2002, 2004,
2008, and 2012, and Round 6 surveys are currently under way (2014-2015). Afrobarometer
conducts face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice with nationally
representative samples of between 1,200 and 2,400 respondents. These sample sizes yield
country-level results with a margin of error of +/-3% (for samples of 1,200) or +/-2% (for samples
of 2,400) at a 95% confidence level. Analysis of smaller subsamples, such as youth, increases
the margins of uncertainty around numerical results.
Afrobarometer surveys target adults ages 18 years and older. In line with Afrobarometer
categories, this analysis uses “youth” to refer to adults ages 18-29, which differs from the
United Nations definition (ages 15-24) and the African Union definition (15-35 years) of
“youth.”
Key findings


More than half (56%) of Africa’s youth say they are “somewhat” or “very” interested in
public affairs, but one-third (34%) say they never discuss politics.
A majority (55%) of African youth voted in their last national election, and one-third
(34%) attended election campaign meetings.
1


A majority (55%) of youth did not contact their local government councillor in the
year preceding the survey.
Youth participation in protests declined in South Africa and Zimbabwe but rose
dramatically in Nigeria. Nine in 10 (92%) African youth say they would not use force
for a political cause.
Interest in public affairs
More than half (56%) of African youth say they are “somewhat interested” or “very
interested” in public affairs. Interest was highest in Egypt (78%) and Tanzania (77%) and
lowest in Côte d’Ivoire (29%) and Madagascar (35%) (Figure 1). One possible explanation for
the low levels of interest in Côte d’Ivoire and Madagascar may be those countries’ recent
experiences with, respectively, a post-electoral civil war and a coup d’état (Nossiter, 2011).
Figure 1: Youth interest in public affairs | 18-29 years old | 33 countries | c. 2012
Côte d'Ivoire
Madagascar
Cameroon
Burkina Faso
Liberia
Guinea
Togo
Benin
Algeria
Kenya
Namibia
South Africa
Ghana
Cape Verde
Morocco
Zimbabwe
Swaziland
Mozambique
Mali
Average
Mauritius
Sierra Leone
Uganda
Zambia
Malawi
Niger
Botswana
Nigeria
Senegal
Burundi
Lesotho
Tunisia
Tanzania
Egypt
29%
35%
38%
43%
45%
46%
48%
49%
50%
52%
54%
54%
55%
55%
55%
55%
56%
56%
56%
56%
57%
59%
60%
60%
61%
62%
62%
62%
63%
67%
67%
71%
77%
78%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Respondents were asked: How interested would you say you are in public affairs?" (% who said
“somewhat interested” or “very interested”)
2
A majority (56%) of youth in surveyed countries say they talk about politics “occasionally” or
“frequently” (Figure 2), but 34% say they never discuss political matters. Those who “never”
discuss politics are in the majority only in Madagascar (67%) and Burundi (55%). North African
countries have the highest proportions of youth who discuss politics, with an average of 73%.
Figure 2: Youth discussion of politics| 18-29 years old | 33 countries | c. 2012
Egypt
16%
56%
Nigeria
20%
Niger
20%
28%
60%
20%
56%
Senegal
22%
Lesotho
23%
24%
52%
27%
48%
29%
Tanzania
25%
Algeria
26%
Mozambique
27%
52%
Tunisia
27%
51%
21%
Benin
27%
52%
21%
Zimbabwe
28%
Sierra Leone
29%
Cape Verde
29%
38%
37%
70%
5%
18%
53%
19%
48%
21%
46%
Zambia
31%
Botswana
31%
Uganda
32%
Kenya
32%
South Africa
32%
Swaziland
33%
24%
49%
20%
50%
18%
53%
15%
46%
21%
51%
16%
53%
Guinea
33%
Cameroon
33%
Burkina Faso
35%
Malawi
36%
14%
47%
18%
44%
21%
48%
17%
36%
Mauritius
39%
Morocco
39%
Côte d'Ivoire
41%
Ghana
41%
Mali
43%
Namibia
43%
27%
51%
10%
46%
14%
51%
42%
17%
35%
22%
45%
Togo
46%
38%
Liberia
48%
35%
Burundi
55%
Madagascar
10%
20%
Never
12%
15%
15%
29%
67%
0%
8%
30%
16%
26%
40%
50%
Occasionally
60%
70%
80%
7%
90%
100%
Frequently
Respondents were asked: When you get together with your friends or family, would you say you discuss
political matters?
3
Youth voting and campaigning
On average, more than half (55%) of Africa’s youth say they voted in the last national
elections held in their countries (Figure 3). East Africans were at the forefront, with two-thirds
(65%) saying they voted. The smallest proportion was in North Africa, where fewer than half
(49%) say they voted. (For more on election patterns, see Ellis, 2014.)
Beyond voting, youth participation in election campaigns was limited: On average, one-third
(34%) of youth attended campaign rallies or meetings in the year preceding the survey, and
two in 10 (23%) tried to persuade others to vote for a certain candidate or party (Figure 4). In
East Africa, 51% of youth say they attended campaign rallies or meetings. North Africans had
by far the lowest levels of participation: 12% attended a campaign event, and 11% tried to
influence other voters.
Figure 3: Youth voting in the last election | by region | 33 countries | 18-29 years old
| c. 2012
70%
65%
60%
50%
49%
50%
North Africa
Southern Africa
55%
57%
Average
West Africa
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
East Africa
Respondents were asked: Thinking about the last national election in [20xx], did you vote?
(% who said “yes”)
Figure 4: Youth involvement in electoral campaigns | by region | 33 countries
| 18-29 years old | c. 2012
60%
51%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
34%
33%
22%
28%
34%
25%
23%
12% 11%
0%
North Africa
Southern
Africa
West Africa
East Africa
Total
Attended a campaign meeting or rally
Persuaded others to vote for a certain candidate or party
Respondents were asked: Thinking about the last national election in [20xx], did you: Attend a
campaign meeting or rally? Persuade others to vote for a certain candidate or party?
(% who said “yes”)
4
Across 24 countries where the question was asked, on average 15% of youth say they
worked for a candidate or party during the year preceding the survey (Figure 5). In Tunisia,
only 9% of youth say they worked for a candidate or party. Tunisia’s low levels of voting and
campaigning may be explained by the country’s dictatorship until the citizen-led Arab Spring
uprisings leading to multiparty elections in October 2011 (Chatora, 2012).
Figure 5: Youth who worked for a candidate or party in the last election
| 18-29 years old | 24 countries | c. 2012
Benin
68%
Liberia
32%
71%
Sierra Leone
29%
72%
Malawi
28%
76%
Guinea
24%
79%
21%
Uganda
82%
18%
Burundi
82%
18%
Average
82%
18%
Togo
83%
17%
Burkina Faso
84%
16%
Côte d'Ivoire
85%
15%
Cameroon
86%
14%
Cape Verde
87%
13%
Kenya
87%
13%
Zambia
88%
13%
Algeria
89%
11%
Tanzania
90%
10%
Lesotho
90%
10%
Zimbabwe
91%
9%
Swaziland
92%
8%
Ghana
92%
8%
Botswana
92%
8%
South Africa
94%
6%
Madasgacar
96%
4%
Tunisia
99%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
No
50%
1%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Yes
Respondents were asked: Thinking about the last national election in [20xx], did you: Work for a
candidate or party?
(% who said “no”)
5
Participation in community organisations
Participation in community associations or organisations is an important marker of whether
youth are engaged and participate in decision-making that directly affects their lives.
Looking at nine countries with relatively long histories of multi-party democracy (South Africa
is not included because its 2014-2015 data are not yet available), on average about one in
seven youth (14%) were active members and/or leaders of community organisations over the
period 2008-2014 (Figure 6). Tanzania (26%) and Ghana (20%) have the highest proportions of
youth who are members or leaders of community associations, while Namibia, Zimbabwe,
Botswana, and Lesotho have the lowest proportions.
Figure 6: Average youth membership in community organisations| 18-29 years old
| 9 countries | 2008-2014
30%
1%
3%
3%
20%
5%
2%
1%
24%
10%
1%
1%
19%
18%
1%
14%
15%
11%
11%
9%
8%
0%
Active member
Official leader
Respondents were asked: Now I am going to read out a list of groups that people join or attend. For
each one, could you tell me whether you are an official leader, an active member, an inactive
member, or not a member?
Figure 7 shows average youth attendance of community meetings in the same nine
countries over the 2008-2014 period. Overall, Malawi has the highest proportion of youth
(74%) who attended at least one meeting in the year preceding the surveys, while Nigeria
has by far the largest proportion (25%) of youth who say they would never attend such
meetings. In Namibia and Ghana, 45% of youth say they did not attend a meeting but would
do so if they had the chance. In Malawi (34%) and Lesotho (31%), about one-third of youth
say they attend community meetings often.
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Figure 7: Average youth attendance of community meetings | 18-29 years old
| 9 countries | 2008-2014
Nigeria
26%
Ghana
33%
16%
Namibia
45%
13%
Zimbabwe
6%
Botswana
5%
Tanzania
5%
0%
19%
27%
20%
14%
10%
20%
23%
15%
30%
40%
8%
7%
31%
34%
23%
26%
50%
6%
27%
24%
26%
17%
12%
26%
36%
7%
20%
14%
11%
19%
29%
43%
7%
Malawi
16%
29%
9%
Lesotho
13%
45%
10%
Zambia
15%
60%
11%
28%
70%
80%
90%
100%
No, would never do this
No, but would do if had the chance
Yes, once or twice
Yes, several times
Yes, often
Respondents were asked: Here is a list of actions that people sometimes take as citizens. For each of
these, please tell me whether you, personally, have done any of these things during the past year. If
not, would you do this if you had the chance: Attended a community meeting?
Taking to the streets
Overall, the countries where the highest proportions of youth participated in protests or
demonstrations during the period 2000-2014 are Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa,
Tanzania, and Zimbabwe (Figure 8). Youth participation in protest marches or demonstrations
appears to vary with developments in-country. For example, in South Africa, while the c. 2000
survey showed two-thirds (67%) of youth had engaged in protests in the previous year, that
proportion dropped to one in six (16%) in the c. 2012 survey. Similarly in Zimbabwe, the
proportion of youth who protested dropped from almost half (45%) in c. 2000 to one in 20
(5%) in 2014.
On the flipside, almost two-thirds (64%) of Nigerian youth say in 2014 that they engaged in
protest marches or demonstrations, compared to one-third or less from 2000 to 2012.
While youth engagement in protest activity varies widely, nine in 10 youth (92%) across 33
countries say they would never use force for a political cause (Figure 9). Tunisia (99%) and
Mauritius (98%) top the list of countries whose youth would not use force, compared to only
76% of Mozambican youth who foreswear political violence.
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Figure 8: Youth participation in protests | 18-29 years old | 6 countries with highest
levels of youth participation in protests | c. 2000-c. 2014
80%
70%
67%
64%
60%
53%
50%
45%
45%
33%
34%
30%
26%
40%
30%
38%
31%
28%
23%
21%
20%
17%
10%
14%
11%
7%
8%
29%
16%
15%
12%
7%
22%
17%
5%
0%
c 2000
c 2002
c 2004
c 2008
c 2012
Kenya
Mozambique
Nigeria
South Africa
Tanzania
Zimbabwe
c 2014
Respondents were asked: Here is a list of actions that people sometimes take as citizens when they are
dissatisfied with government performance. For each of these, please tell me whether you, personally,
have done any of these things during the past year. If not, would you do this if you had the
chance: Attend a demonstration or protest march?
(% who said “yes, often,” “yes, several times,” or “yes, once or twice”)
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Figure 9: Youth who would never use force for a political cause| 18-29 years old
| 33 countries | c. 2012
Mozambique
Uganda
South Africa
Lesotho
Namibia
Togo
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Benin
Nigeria
Madagascar
Egypt
Burkina Faso
Tanzania
Liberia
Morocco
Average
Swaziland
Kenya
Niger
Senegal
Guinea
Algeria
Mali
Sierra Leone
Malawi
Zambia
Ghana
Zimbabwe
Côte d'Ivoire
Botswana
Burundi
Mauritius
Tunisia
76%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
86%
86%
87%
87%
87%
87%
88%
88%
88%
89%
89%
89%
89%
90%
90%
90%
90%
91%
92%
92%
92%
93%
93%
94%
94%
95%
98%
99%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Respondents were asked: Here is a list of actions that people sometimes take as citizens when they are
dissatisfied with government performance. For each of these, please tell me whether you, personally,
have done any of these things during the past year. If not, would you do this if you had the
chance: Used force or violence for a political cause?
(% who “would never do this”)
Contacting leaders
On average, fewer than half of African youth made contact in the preceding year with their
local government councillor, the closest on-the-ground leader that average Africans would
engage with regarding services or other problems (Figure 10). The highest level of contact
was in East Africa, where on average about six in 10 youth (59%) contacted their local
councillors about an important issue. In Southern and North Africa, 45% of youth, on average,
contacted their councillors, while West Africa had the lowest frequency of contact, at 29%.
9
Figure 10: Did not contact local government councillor |18-29 years old | by region
| c. 2012
80%
71%
70%
58%
60%
55%
51%
50%
41%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
West Africa
Southern Africa
Average
North Africa
East Africa
Respondents were asked: During the past year, how often have you contacted any of the following
persons about some important problem or to give them your views: A local government councillor? (%
who said “never”)
Conclusion
Africa is experiencing an unprecedented increase in its youth population. Many view this as
an opportunity for greater economic growth, but if it is not solidly engaged in democratic
processes, a youth bulge marked by unemployment, poverty, and lack of education could
also be a potential threat to political stability and national security.
Youth voice and engagement are fundamental aspects of democratic consolidation, as
tomorrow’s leaders must be active participants in today’s decision-making processes.
Youth voice and civic engagement can be improved through training in civic participation
and through the creation of authentic opportunities for youth to engage with candidates
and elected officials. The creation of such spaces and opportunities for engagement will go
a long way in countering the disconnect between youth and their local leaders.
To further explore this data, please visit Afrobarometer's online data
analysis facility at www.afrobarometer.org/online-data-analysis.
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References
Aryeetey, E., & Oduro, A. (1996). Regional integration efforts in Africa: An overview. In
Teunissen, J. J. (ed), Regionalism and the Global Economy: The Case of Africa. The
Hague: FONDAD.
Chatora, A. (2012). Encouraging political participation in Africa: The potential of social media
platforms. Situation Report of the African Conflict Prevention Programme at the
Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria. Available at
https://www.issafrica.org/publications/situation-reports/encouraging-politicalparticipation-in-africa-the-potential-of-social-media-platforms.
Ellis, E. (2014). A vote of confidence: Retrospective voting in Africa. Afrobarometer Working Paper
No. 147. Available at http://afrobarometer.org/publications/wp147-vote-confidenceretrospective-voting-africa.
Nossiter, A. (2011). Civil war, Ivory Coast-style. New York Times. Available at
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/ivorycoast/i
ndex.html.
Sibusiso Nkomo is Afrobarometer communications coordinator for Southern Africa based at
the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR) in Cape Town, South Africa. Email:
[email protected]
Eleanor du Plooy is Ashley Kriel Youth Leadership Development project leader at IJR. Email:
[email protected]
Afrobarometer is produced collaboratively by social scientists from more than 30 African
countries. Coordination is provided by the Center for Democratic Development (CDD) in
Ghana, the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR) in South Africa, the Institute for
Development Studies (IDS) at the University of Nairobi in Kenya, and the Institute for Empirical
Research in Political Economy (IREEP) in Benin. Michigan State University (MSU) and the
University of Cape Town (UCT) provide technical support to the network.
Core support for Afrobarometer Rounds 5 and 6 has been provided by the UK’s Department
for International Development (DFID), the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, the Swedish International
Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA), the United States Agency for International
Development (USAID), and the World Bank.
For more information, please visit www.afrobarometer.org.
Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 41 | 12 August 2015
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