Geoff PEGRAM Sandrine ANQUETIN University KwaZulu Natal

South African – French Network for Research in Water Science and Technology
(SAFe Water)
Hydrometeorological Forecasting of Flash Floods,
Understanding the Effect of Climate Variability on the Management of
Water Resources
Geoff PEGRAM
University KwaZulu Natal
Durban, SA
Sandrine ANQUETIN
LTHE - CNRS
Grenoble, F
Scientific Report - 2008
Second Year of the project
Aims of the project:
The aim is to strengthen the scientific collaboration between France and South Africa to
address the questions of the hydrological forecasting at different time scales (Anquetin and
Pegram, 2006). We propose to focus our work for time scales ranging from the real time
forecasting (24h) to seasonal and long term forecasting taking into account the variability
associated to the climate change.
Two main themes have been identified :
- the flash-flood forecasting;
- the impact of the climatic variability on the hydro-systems.
A short presentation of the project is proposed at:
http://ltheln21.hmg.inpg.fr/PagePerso/anquetin/Projects.html
Means :
As proposed in the perspectives at the end of year 2007, 2008 was dedicated to several
exchanges, that are summarized as follow :
1/ French Students to South Africa
Julia Pfeffer and Sylvain Revil-Baudart made their research training period in South Africa.
Julia Pfeffer (Pfeffer, 2008), student from the Master 2 Recherche, Terre Univers et Environnement of Grenoble University, worked 5 month in Durban (February to June 2008) on
the Evaluation of remote sensing soil water products by intercomparison over South
Africa. This work was supervised by G. Pegram (KwaZulu Natal Univserity, Durban) and T.
Pellarin and T. Vischel from Grenoble University. This research was an extension of the
work done within Theo Vischelʼs postdoc last year (Vishel et al., 2008). Through this exchange, the collaboration between Grenoble and Durban has be reinforced.
Sylvain Revil-Baudart, student from PolyetchʼMontpellier, worked 6 month in Pietermaritzburg (October 2008 to March 2009) on the Simultaneous use of Electrical Resistivity Tomography, ground penetrating radar and EMS34 techniques in evaluating
lateral hillslope subsoil water pathways. This work is supervised by Simon Lorentz from
KwaZulu Natal University, Pietermaritzburg and Christophe Bouvier from Montpellier University. This successful collaboration aims to be continued within the framework of HyMEX
S. Anquetin - Décembre 2008
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South African – French Network for Research in Water Science and Technology
(SAFe Water)
Hydrometeorological Forecasting of Flash Floods,
Understanding the Effect of Climate Variability on the Management of
Water Resources
(HYdrological cycle in Mediterranean EXperiment). The project is devoted to the assesment of the spatial variability of soils and moisture at the hillslope scale, and includes a
field prospection : monitoring of some dozens of Theta Probes for soil moisture, mechanical and geophysical prospection for soil depth and texture, radar survey.
2/ South African students to France.
In December 2007, it was planned to welcome Michael Mehari (PhD Cape Town) and
Ross Blamey (PhD Cape Town) in Grenoble.
Michael Mehari was not able to come. Indeed, France does not recognize the refugee
status and travel document issue by South Africa and did not allow Michael Mehari in
France even for a 2 months student exchange. This new was a real bad new since the
scientific program was clear and well supervised.
Ross Blamey did not get his passport on time, therefore his stay has been shifted in Spring
2009.
3/ South African scientists in France.
If the South African students exchanges did not succeed in 2008, University of Grenoble
was honored to welcome Mathieu Rouault (March 2008) and Geoff Pegram (September
2008). Both of them stayed one week, and gave seminars that are accessible to the web
page address :
http://ltheln21.hmg.inpg.fr/PagePerso/anquetin/Projects.html
These 2 stays strengthened the collaboration and aimed at defining projects for 2009.
4/ Research actions.
Three main actions are going on, they concern :
- Satellite application and Hydrometeorology.
Soil moisture estimation from Satellite
This theme was in the core of the Postdoc project of Théo Vischel who went in Durban
from September 2006 to September 2007. He developed a distributed hydrological model
based on the concept of TOPKAPI, performed the simulation of the Liebenbergsvlei
catchment (4600 km2) and compared the simulated soil moisture to the soil moisture estimated by the satellite (Vischel et al., 2007a,b, Vishel et al., 2008). This collaboration was
strengthen by :
a/ the 5 month training period of Julia Pfeffer, M2R-STE from Grenoble, in Durban
(Pfeffer, 2008).
b/ WP5 of the European STREP-HYDRATE project coordinated by Marco Borga
where Goeff Pegram and Sandrine Anquetin are involved.
S. Anquetin - Décembre 2008
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South African – French Network for Research in Water Science and Technology
(SAFe Water)
Hydrometeorological Forecasting of Flash Floods,
Understanding the Effect of Climate Variability on the Management of
Water Resources
- Time and space scales of the climatic system.
LTHE has a strong expertise on the simulation of the storms associated to flash-flood in
the Mediterranean context. Ross Blamey, from the University of Cape Town, will be welcomed during May and June 2009 in Grenoble to implement a quantitative validation, developed at LTHE, of the simulated rain field associated intense precipitation in South Africa.
Moreover, Aurélia Murgia, M2R-STE student, will do her training period in Cape Town. Her
research will concern the Impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation on hydrological resources
in South Africa. This work will be supervised in Cape Town by Mathieu Rouault and in
Grenoble by Sandrine Anquetin. This research will launch the collaboration between the 2
laboratories on the understanding of the impact climate system evolution on the water resources. It is then planed to welcome South African students on this subject.
- Small scale hydrological processes
This action has been launched through the stay of Sylvain Revil-Baudart in Pietermaritzburg. It is proposed to strengthen this research with the stay of Simon Lorentz in 2009 in
France. This stay will be dedicated to the visit of the several experimental implemented
sites within the SO-OHMCV 1 in the South East of France. This stay will help to built up a
common strategy that may be part of the HyMeX proposal.
Synthesis of the exchanges in 2008 and perspectives for 2009
2008
France
to
South Africa
South Africa
to
Julia Pfeffer (M2R-STE) Durban
Aurélia Mugia (M2R-STE) Cape
Town
Sylvain Revil-Baudart (PolyetchʼMontpellier) Pietermaritzburg
PolyetchʼMontpellier Student (Engineer Final Project) Pietermaritzburg
Mathieu Rouault (Cape Town)
Grenoble
Ross Blamey (PhD Cape Town)
May/June - Grenoble
Geoff Pegram (Durban) Grenoble
XX (Cape Town) in Grenoble
France
1
2009
Simon Lorentz (Pietermaritzburg)
Grenoble/Montpellier
http://www.lthe.hmg.inpg.fr/OHM-CV/
S. Anquetin - Décembre 2008
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South African – French Network for Research in Water Science and Technology
(SAFe Water)
Hydrometeorological Forecasting of Flash Floods,
Understanding the Effect of Climate Variability on the Management of
Water Resources
References associated ONLY to this project
2008
Fauchereau, N., Pegram, G. G. S., and Sinclair, S.: Empirical Mode Decomposition on the
sphere: application to the spatial scales of surface temperature variations, Hydrol.
Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 933-941, 2008.
Pegram G and A. Clothier, 2008, Downscaling Rainfields in Space and Time Using the
“String of Beads” Model, Séminaire LTHE, Septembre 2008.
Pegram, G., 2008, Radar rainfall infilling Techniques, Séminaire LTHE, Septembre 2008.
Pegram, G., MC Peel and TA McMahon, 2008, Empirical Mode Decomposition Analysis
using Rational Splines, Séminaire LTHE, Septembre 2008
Pegram, G., N. Fauchereau and S. Sinclair, 2008, EMD on the sphere, Séminaire LTHE,
Septembre 2008
Pfeffer, J., 2008, Evaluation of remote sensing soil water products by intercomparison over
South Africa, Mémoire de M2R-STE, Université Joseph Fourier, 31p.
Rouault, M., 2008, Impact des échanges océan-atmosphère sur le climat et la météorologie d'Afrique Australe, Séminaire LTHE, Mars 2008.
Vischel, T., Pegram, G. G. S., Sinclair, S., Wagner, W., and Bartsch, A.: Comparison of soil
moisture fields estimated by catchment modelling and remote sensing: a case study
in South Africa, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 751-767
2007
Pegram G., S. Sinclair and T. Vischel, 2007. Validation of remote sensing of soil moisture
in Southern Africa 13TH SANCIAHS Symposium, Cape Town.
Sinclair S., G. Pegram and T. Vischel, 2007. Spatial conditioning of Evapotranspiration potential for distributed hydrological modelling in Southern Africa. 13TH SANCIAHS
Symposium, Cape Town.
Vischel T., G. Pegram, S. Sinclair, W. Wagner, A. Bartsch, 2007. Comparison of soil moisture fields estimated by catchment modelling and remote sensing: a case study in
South Africa. Accepted in Hydrologic and Earth Science System.
Vischel T., G. Pegram, S. Sinclair, M. Parak 2007. Implementation of the TOPKAPI model
in South Africa. First results on the Liebenbergsvlei catchment.. Under review for
submission in Water SA.
S. Anquetin - Décembre 2008
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South African – French Network for Research in Water Science and Technology
(SAFe Water)
Hydrometeorological Forecasting of Flash Floods,
Understanding the Effect of Climate Variability on the Management of
Water Resources
Vischel T., G. Pegram, S. Sinclair , 2007. Remote sensing and modeling of soil moisture:
comparison on a regional size South African catchment. 13TH SANCIAHS Symposium, Cape Town.
2006
Anquetin, S. and G. Pegram, 2006, Hydrometeorology and Water Ressources. Workshop
on South-African-French Research Cooperation, CNRS Headquarters, Paris, June
13th – 14th.
S. Anquetin - Décembre 2008
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South African – French Network for Research in Water Science and Technology
(SAFe Water)
Hydrometeorological Forecasting of Flash Floods,
Understanding the Effect of Climate Variability on the Management of
Water Resources
BILAN FINANCIER 2008
Prévu
Dépensé
5000
3755
840
480
150
360
Annulé
Annulé
360
Reporté
1680
500
610
Annulé
3000
2500
4000
2000
Non
Accordé
....
....
• Bourses
Indemnités de stages 2 mois ( Mars - Avril 2008) Michael Mehari (PhD) (2 x 379)
758
Annulé
Indemnités de stages 2 mois (Mai - Juin 2008) Ross Blamey (PhD) (2 x 379)
758
Reporté
Non
Budgetisé
1860
21906
6705
CÔTÉ FRANÇAIS (EUR)
• Missions *
2 A/R France - Afrique du Sud (2 x 2500)
Etudiants Français M2R en stage Février à Juin 2008 (Durban et Pietermaritzburg)
Accueil 1 semaine Grenoble (Mars 2008) Mathieu Rouault (7 x 120)
Mission Grenoble - Montpellier Michael Mehari (PhD)
Indemnités logement (2 mois) Michael Mehari (PHD) (60 x 60)
Indemnités logement (2 mois) Ross Blamey) (PhD) (60 x 60)
Accueil 2 semaine (Octobre) Geof Pegram (14 x 120)
Missions Geof Pegram Grenoble / Montpellier / Paris
Coûts de recherche
Achat 2 postes de travail pour accueil étudiants Sud-Africains (2 x 1500)
Achat portable pour étudiant Français (+ logiciels)
Frais de publication
Consommables
•
Bourse de stage 5 mois (Fev - Juin 2008) Julian Pfeffer (5 x 372)
TOTAL
Au 31/12/08, la ligne budgétaire SAFeWater n’est créditée que de 78€ !!!!
S. Anquetin - Décembre 2008
6/8
South African – French Network for Research in Water Science and Technology
(SAFe Water)
Hydrometeorological Forecasting of Flash Floods,
Understanding the Effect of Climate Variability on the Management of
Water Resources
PLAN D’EMPLOI DES CREDITS 2009
Notre plan d’emploi des crédits est celui présenté pour accord du P2R - SAFeWater.
3e année
2009
CÔTÉ FRANÇAIS (EUR)
• Missions *
2 A/R France - Afrique du Sud (2 x 2500)
Etudiants Français M2R en stage Février à Juin 2008 (Cape Town et Pietermaritzburg)
5000
Accueil 1 semaine Montpellier (Septembre 2009) Simon Lorentz (7 x 120)
Accueil 1 semaine Grenoble (Septembre 2009) Simon Lorentz (7 x 120)
840
840
Indemnités logement (2 mois) Ross Blamey) (PhD) (60 x 60)
Indemnités logement (2 mois) XX (Cape Town) (60 x 60)
Indemnités logement (2 mois) Etudiant Pietermaritzburg (60 x 60)
360
360
360
• Bourses
Indemnités de stages 2 mois Etudiant Pietermaritzburg (2 x 379)
758
Indemnités de stages 2 mois (Mai - Juin 2008) Ross Blamey (PhD) (2 x 379)
Indemnités de stage 2 mois - Variabilité climatique et impact hydrologique
758
758
Complément de bourse pour les 2 étudiants Français en Afrique du Sud (5 mois) (372
euros/mois)
3720
TOTAL
S. Anquetin - Décembre 2008
13 754
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