Tunisia Communications Projections Report

Tunisia Communications Projections Report

Tunisia
Communications Projections Report
Arab Advisors Group
Strategic Research Service
November 2005
Analyst: Serene Zawaydeh
Arab Advisors Group
A member of the Arab Jordan Investment Bank Group
PO Box 2374
Amman 11821 - Jordan
Tel. 962.6.5828849
Fax. 962.6.5828809
[email protected]
www.arabadvisors.com
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Table of Contents
Section I: Executive Summary...................................................................... 1
Section II: Projections ................................................................................. 3
Section III: Regulatory Landscape and Investment Rules and Regulations . 4
Regulatory Environment .................................................................................4
Telecommunication law Number 1-2001 of January 15, 2001 ..............................5
Telecom Strategy .......................................................................................6
Organizations Responsible for the ICT Sector in Tunisia.................................... 10
Ministère des Technologies de la Communication .......................................... 10
Instance Nationale des Télécommunications (INT) ........................................ 10
Agence Nationale des Fréquences ............................................................... 10
Foreign Investment Regulations ................................................................. 12
Section IV: Communications Market Segments .......................................... 16
Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) Market.......................................... 16
Fixed Line Operator: Tunisie Telecom............................................................. 16
Tunisie Telecom’s Profile............................................................................ 16
Tunisie Telecom’s Infrastructure ................................................................. 17
Tunisie Telecom’s Workforce ...................................................................... 19
Fixed Line Prepaid and Postpaid Subscribers ................................................ 20
Privatization of Tunisie Telecom.................................................................. 23
Tunisie Telecom’s SWOT Analysis ............................................................... 31
Mainlines’ Growth and Revenues ................................................................... 32
ISDN Growth .............................................................................................. 34
Payphones.................................................................................................. 35
Vendors for the Tunisie Telecom's Fixed Network............................................. 37
International Connectivity............................................................................. 40
Tunisia’s Cellular Communications Market....................................................... 42
Tunisia’s Cellular Market Compared to Arab Cellular Markets............................. 44
Tunisie Telecom .......................................................................................... 45
Tunisie Telecom’s Mobile Subscriber Base .................................................... 45
Tunisie Telecom’s Mobile Revenues and ARPUs ............................................. 46
Tunisie Telecom’s Mobile Services............................................................... 50
Tunisie Telecom’s Value Added Services ...................................................... 51
Orascom Telecom Tunisia (Tunisiana) ............................................................ 52
Tunisiana’s Shareholder Structure .............................................................. 52
Tunisiana’s Subscriber Base ....................................................................... 54
Tunisiana’s Network .................................................................................. 55
Tunisiana’s Offers ..................................................................................... 55
Value Added Services ................................................................................ 56
Tunisiana’s Financials ................................................................................ 57
Orascom Telecom Tunisia (Tunisiana)’s SWOT Analysis ................................. 59
GSM Prepaid and Postpaid Market Dynamics ................................................... 60
Tunisia’s Cellular Revenues and ARPU ............................................................ 61
PSTN and Cellular Revenues ......................................................................... 62
Cellular Prepaid and Postpaid Analysis............................................................ 64
Interconnection Between Public Operators ...................................................... 65
Vendors of the Mobile Networks .................................................................... 66
Tunisie Telecom’s Vendors ......................................................................... 66
Orascom Telecom Tunisia’s vendors ............................................................ 68
Digital Radio Trunking (TETRA) and Paging Provider: Office National de
Télédiffusion (ONT)...................................................................................... 70
Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT) Services................................................ 72
Section V: Brief country background .......................................................... 74
Political System........................................................................................... 74
Geography.................................................................................................. 74
Population and Demographic Information ....................................................... 74
Education ................................................................................................... 76
Economy .................................................................................................... 76
Appendix .................................................................................................... 78
List of Exhibits
Exhibit 1: Liberalization Timeline (2001-2009) ............................................ 4
Exhibit 2: Main Legislative Measures Taken by the Government .................. 6
Exhibit 3: Decrees Related to the Tunisian Telecommunications Sector ..... 11
Exhibit 4: Investment Regulations ............................................................. 12
Exhibit 5: Tax Scale Applied to Annual Earnings......................................... 13
Exhibit 6: Subscription and Equity Deposit Duty ........................................ 14
Exhibit 7: Comparison of Mainlines and Penetration Rates (2004) ............. 16
Exhibit 8: Structure of Tunisie Telecom’s Capital ....................................... 17
Exhibit 9: Tunisie Telecom’s National Backbone ......................................... 18
Exhibit 10: Tunisie Telecom’s Investments (2001-2004) ........................... 19
Exhibit 11: Tunisie Telecom’s Employees (2001-2004) .............................. 19
Exhibit 12: Fixed Line Prepaid and Postpaid Subscribers (2001-June 2005)
............................................................................................................. 20
Exhibit 13: Timeline for Tunisie Telecom Privatization’s Tender Process.... 24
Exhibit 14: Tunisie Telecom’s Financial Performance (2001-2004) ............ 25
Exhibit 15: Segmentation of Tunisie Telecom’s Revenues (2004) .............. 26
Exhibit 16: Operators Interested in Tunisie Telecom Privatization............. 27
Exhibit 17: SOTETEL’s Shareholder Structure ............................................. 30
Exhibit 18: Tunisie Telecom’s SWOT Analysis............................................. 31
Exhibit 19: Mainlines’ Growth and Penetration Rates (2000-2009) ............ 32
Exhibit 20: Mainlines’ Revenues and ARPUs (1999-2009) .......................... 33
Exhibit 21: ISDN Growth and % of Mainlines (1999-2009) ........................ 34
Exhibit 22: Payphones (2000- March 2005) ............................................... 35
Exhibit 23: Comparison of Cellular Subscribers and Penetration Rates
(2004) .................................................................................................. 44
Exhibit 24: Tunisie Telecom’s Mobile Subscribers Mix (1999-June 2005)... 45
Exhibit 25: Tunisie Telecom’s GSM Prepaid and Postpaid Tariffs ................ 46
Exhibit 26: Tunisie Telecom’s Prepaid and Postpaid Mobile Revenues and
ARPUs (1999-2004) ............................................................................. 48
Exhibit 27: % Postpaid Subscribers and Revenues versus Postpaid /
Prepaid ARPU ....................................................................................... 49
Exhibit 28: Orascom Telecom Tunisia’s Shareholders (End 2004) .............. 53
Exhibit 29: Orascom Telecom Tunisia’s Shareholders (May 2005) ............. 53
Exhibit 30: Orascom Telecom Tunisia’s Subscriber Mix (2003- June 2005) 54
Exhibit 31: Tunisiana’s International SMS Service ..................................... 56
Exhibit 32: Tunisiana’s Revenues and ARPU (2003-June 2005) ................. 57
Exhibit 33: Tunisiana’s EBITDA and Capex (2003-June 2005).................... 58
Exhibit 34: Orascom Telecom Tunisia’s SWOT Analysis .............................. 59
Exhibit 35: Prepaid and Postpaid Additions per Mobile Operator (2000- June
05) ....................................................................................................... 60
Exhibit 36: Mobile Operators’ Subscriber Additions and Market Shares
(2002-June 2005) ................................................................................ 61
Exhibit 37: Cellular Monthly ARPU and Revenues (1999-2009) .................. 62
Exhibit 38: PSTN and Cellular Revenues (1999-2009)................................ 63
Exhibit 39: Prepaid versus Postpaid Analysis ............................................. 64
Exhibit 40: Interconnection Tariffs............................................................. 65
Exhibit 41: Tunisie Telecom’s VSAT Tariffs ................................................. 73
Exhibit 42: Population by Governorate - (2000-2004) ............................... 75
Exhibit 43: Age Structure of the Population (2004) ................................... 76
Exhibit 44: Educational Levels for 10 Years of Age and Above (2004) ....... 76
Exhibit 45: Workforce by Sector (2004) ..................................................... 77
Exhibit A1: Exchange Rates (1999-2005)................................................... 78
Exhibit A2: Map of Tunisia .......................................................................... 78
Exhibit A3: Fixed Telephone Local Tariffs ................................................... 79
Exhibit A4: National Fixed Line Communication Tariffs .............................. 79
Exhibit A5: International Fixed Line Communication Tariffs....................... 79
Exhibit A6: ISDN Rates............................................................................... 80
Exhibit A7: Tunisie Telecom GSM Postpaid Tariffs ...................................... 80
Exhibit A8: Tunisie Telecom’s Tariffs for GSM Postpaid Value Added Services
............................................................................................................. 81
Exhibit A9: Tunisie Telecom’s GSM Prepaid Tariffs ..................................... 81
Exhibit A10: Tunisie Telecom’s Tariffs for Renting GSM Lines .................... 82
Exhibit A11: Tunisie Telecom’s MMS Tariffs for Postpaid Subscribers ........ 82
Exhibit A12: Tunisie Telecom’s Ahbeb.Com Tariffs ..................................... 82
Exhibit A13: Tunisie Telecom’s MobiGroup Tariffs ...................................... 82
Exhibit A14: Tunisie Telecom’s MobiRif Tariffs ........................................... 82
Exhibit A15: Tunisie Telecom’s Analogue Mobile Telephone Service Tariffs 83
Exhibit A16: Carta+ Tunisiana Tariffs (Prepaid) ......................................... 83
Exhibit A17: Tunisiana Recharge Cards ...................................................... 84
Exhibit A18: Awal Tunisiana Prepaid Tariffs ............................................... 84
Exhibit A19: Awal Tunisiana Postpaid Tariffs ............................................. 85
Exhibit A20: Tunisiana Services with Punctual Necessity ........................... 86
Exhibit A21: Tunisie Telecom’s Prepaid Roaming Partners (July 27, 2005) 86
Exhibit A22: Tunisie Telecom’s Postpaid Roaming Partners (July 22, 2005)
............................................................................................................. 87
Exhibit A23: Tunisiana’s Prepaid Roaming Partners (August 19, 2005) ..... 92
Exhibit A24: Tunisiana’s Postpaid Roaming Partners ................................. 93
Exhibit A25: Coverage Map of TUNITRUNK (TETRA) Network .................... 95
Exhibit A26: Tariffs of ONT’s TETRA Service ............................................... 96
Exhibit A27: Tariffs of ONT’s Paging Service .............................................. 96