Gas system 2015

Transcription

Gas system 2015

GRTgaz-Nord
Gas system 2015
Press conference 21th January 2016
GRTgaz-Sud
#ConsoGaz
TIGF
Main conclusions
 Gas consumption resumed despite warm conditions in 2015.
 Gas demand for power generation in gas fired power plants has strongly
increased, due to favourable economic conditions.
 2015 was characterised by the lowest LNG imports to France ever, which entailed
a still intensive use of the North-South link, despite transits to Spain and Italy
back to 5 year average level.
 New gas uses and biomethane permitted to avoid 490,000 tonnes of CO2
emissions in 2015.
2
Conférence de presse du 21 janvier 2016 - Bilan Gaz 2015
2015, one of the warmest years ever
(°C)
3
Difference between normal temperature 1981-2010
and average temperature since 1921
Extremely mild temperatures at the end of 2015
Average monthly temperatures
Gross monthly consumption
Good level on Q1-2015
Near normal
on Q1-2015
4
Hot
on Q4-2015
Low level on Q4-2015

H1-2015: globally close to normal conditions, while H1-2014 was warm all along
the period and H2-2013 was cold all along the period.

H2-2015: the end of the year was warm – climatic effect was mitigated by the
rising demand of gas power plants.
Resumption of total gas consumption
2015 vs 2014: +8.1% gross value and +3.4% climate corrected value
+8.1%
gross value
TWh/y
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2 005 2 006 2 007 2 008 2 009 2 010 2 011 2 012 2 013 2 014 2 015
Consommation
totale brute (TWh/an)
Total gross consumption
5
+3.4%
corrected value
Consommation
totale corrigée
du climat (TWh/an)
Total climate corrected
consumption
Public distribution consumption is climate sensitive
2015 vs 2014: +6.6% gross value and -0.2% climate corrected value
+6.6%
TWh/y
gross value
350
-0.2%
corrected value
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2 005 2 006 2 007 2 008 2 009 2 010 2 011 2 012 2 013 2 014 2 015
Public distribution
gross des
consumption
Consommation
brute
DP (TWh/an)
6
Consommation
corrigée
du climatconsumption
des DP (TWh/an)
Public distribution
climate corrected
Growing consumption of industrial customers
2015 vs 2014: +10.8%
TWh/an
GRTgaz industrial customers consumption
180
Total
+10.8%
160
Average
on 10 years
125 TWh
Power Gen.*
140
+79.4%
120
100
Other Indus.
80
+0.15%
60
40
20
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
* Power generation includes gas fired power plants and main cogeneration facilities.


7
Recovery of gas demand for power generation.
Stability of industrial activity over the year, rising at the end of the year.
Strong increase of power plants gas consumption
2015 vs 2014 : +161%
Gas consumption of power plants
GWh/month
4500
GWh cumulated
25000
4000
20000
3500
2015
3000
15000
2500
2000
+161%
10000
2014
1500
1000
5000
500
0
0
1



8
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
The of gas fired power plants were more competitive and in a context of very mild temperatures
at the end of the year.
All the 12 gas fired power plants operational on GRTgaz network consumed gas.
Means on hold were back to production at the end of 2015.
Bouchain’s power plant (Nord) will start production in summer 2016.
Gas demand for power generation is strongly
connected to declining gas prices
Gas prices evolution in French gas market

11
Gas prices are down from 22 €/MWh to 17 €/MWh between Q1-2015 and Q4-2015.
CO2 emissions avoided by substitution of coal by gas in
power generation
Gas fired and coal fired
power generation in France in 2015 1
Electricity2
(from gas + coal)
Mt
25
20
20
15
10
5
5
0
0
100%
100%
Charbon
Coal
Gas
10
10,5 Mt
avoided
For the same quantity of electricity
produced, twice less CO2 is emitted using
gas instead of coal.
Coal
15
7 Mt
avoided
Gas
Electricity
25
Coal
TWhe
CO2 emissions
Gas70%
70%
Gaz
100%100%
Gaz
Gas
Charbon
Coal 30%30%
mix
=> This production with gas instead
of coal corresponds to 7 millions
tonnes of CO2 avoided in 2015.
2015
In the world, to switch all the coal fired power plants to gas:
•
•
(1)
(2)
12
is consistent with 9 billions tonnes of CO2 avoided, compared with 50 billions tonnes
CO2eq. world emissions estimated for 2014.
would allow to reach 30 to 40% of the effort on CO2 emissions advised by GIEC to limit the
global warming at 2°C.
Estimée à partir des données de puissance horaire par filières publiées par RTE.
Estimation à partir des quantités de gaz consommées pour la production d’électricité.
Development fuel-oil / gas conversions:
380,000 tonnes of CO2 avoided in 2015

4,4 TWh of gas consumption due to conversions of industrial customers
in 2015.

Fuel-oil / gas conversions permitted to avoid 380 000 tonnes of CO2.


Substitutions of fuel-oil by gas, it’s also:


14
380,000 tonnes of CO2 avoided is equivalent to ~2,500 wind mills of 2 MW in
the French electric mix (mix 2014).
A significant reduction of CO2 emissions.
A significant reduction of NOx (-70%) and SO2 (-80%) emissions.
And almost no particles and no dust.
76 000 tonnes of CO2 avoided in 2015 by fuelling
14 000 vehicles with gas instead of diesel

14 000 vehicles fuelled by gas in France in 2015 :
 With gas instead of diesel it permits to avoid 76 000 tonnes of CO 2 2.
 Compared to diesel, gas as a fuel emits less CO 2 but also much less NOx and
almost no particles.

43 public refuelling stations1 in France in 2015,
and 6 about to be opened:
 Some 300 stations targeted in2020.

1 CNG station (Compressed Natural Gas) each
150 km should be installed in Europe a minima
before 2025 (Directive AFI).
(1) Par ailleurs, plus de 150 stations non-publiques avitaillent des flottes captives.
(2) Un poids lourd au gaz naturel permet d’éviter 15 t CO2 /an par rapport à du diesel.
15
Biomethane injections dynamising the energy transition
 In France, 17 biomethane injection points to gas networks:
 1 forGRTgaz : Chagny (Saône-et-Loire), first injection in Septembre 2015.
 14 for GRDF, 1 for rGDS and 1 forTIGF.
 A total of 163 GWh of biométhane injected in 2015(1)

Equivalent to the consumption of 16,650 shelters or 890 bus bioNGV.
 34,000 tonnes of CO2 avoid that way in 2015.
 In 2015, conversions from fuel-oil to gas, gaz-mobility and renewable gas
permitted to avoid the emission of 490,000 tonnes of CO 2:
 equivalente to nearly 3 300 wind mills of 2 MW (2).
(1) Essentiellement les injections sur le réseau de GRDF, les autres sites venant juste d’être mis en service.
(2) Contribution estimée sur la base des émissions moyennes de CO2 du mix électrique français de 2014.
16
Flow evolution 2015 vs 2014:
North-South link was still highly demanded
Flow variations
Inlets / Outlets
2015 vs 2014
(TWh and % )
+1 TWh
+13 %
+19 TWh
+11 %
-10 TWh
-5 %
-13 TWh
-10 %
-10 TWh
-14 %
+0 TWh
+1 %
• North-South link was still
demanded at a high level:
 Level of use 2015 (90%) vs
2014 (94%).
 Saturated 126 days (2015)
vs 244 days (2014).
• Transit to Spain is back to a
normal level (2010-2014).
• Stability of the inlets by gas
pipes in the North.
• LNG inlets continue to go down
and are at their lowest level
ever.
-17 TWh
-36 %
14
-6 TWh
-10 %
Many events on GRTgaz network in 2015
Dunkerque
Dunkerque LNG
Alveringem
Taisnières
H et B
Obergailbach
GRTgaz-Nord
Montoir
GRTgaz-Sud
Development of physical
capacities

Creation of the outlet Alveringem;

LNG terminal “Dunkerque LNG” is
now connected to the network.

Interconnection Biriatou (TIGF) is
operational since dec. 2015, with
new capacities for Pirineos:
Oltingue
 Spain to France (+32%).
 France to Spain (+34%).
New market conditions
TIGF
Pirineos (TIGF)
19

Trading Region South (TRS).

European network codes: market
oriented balancing.
Fos Cavaou
Fos Tonkin
Vision on GRTgaz network activity with GRTgaz+
20

At any moment, access to key-data
relating to GRTgaz network.

Available on a large panel of
smartphones.

To understand better, at any time,
the gas transmission in GRTgaz
zones in France.

An updated version will be delivered
before next summer.
MERCI POUR VOTRE ATTENTION
QUESTIONS / REPONSES
Bilan Gaz 2015
Conférence de presse
21 Janvier 2016

Gas system 2015

Transcription

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