Economic Development Update - June 2015

MEMO / NOTE DE SERVICE
Information previously distributed / Information distribué auparavant
TO: Chair and Members of Finance and Economic Development Committee
DESTINATAIRE : Président et membres du Comité des finances et du développement
économique
FROM: Saad Bashir, Director
Economic Development and Innovation
Department
Contact:
Danyelle Bélanger, Research Assistant
Economic Development and Innovation
Department
613-580-2424 extension 24248
[email protected]
EXPÉDITEUR: Saad Bashir, Directeur
Service de l’innovation et du
développement économique
Personne ressource:
Danyelle Bélanger, Adjointe, recherche
Service de l’innovation et du
développement économique
613-580-2424 poste 24248
[email protected]
DATE: June 29, 2015
29 juin 2015
FILE NUMBER: ACS2015-CMR-OCM-0021
SUBJECT: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT UPDATE – JUNE 2015
OBJET : LE POINT SUR LE DÉVELOPPEMENT ÉCONOMIQUE – JUIN 2015
PURPOSE
The purpose of the Economic Development Update is to provide members of Finance
and Economic Development Committee with the most up-to-date and relevant
information on Ottawa’s economy and related markets.
BACKGROUND
The City’s Economic Development and Innovation (EDI) Department analyzes a series
of publicly available key economic, financial, and business indicators for Ottawa. Every
month, the Economic Development Update examines trends in Ottawa’s labour market
(employment and unemployment), consumer prices, housing starts, new home sales,
and construction.
Data reported in the June 2015 Economic Development Update has been adapted from
the following sources:
1. Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey results for the Ontario-portion of the
Ottawa-Gatineau Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) for April 2015;
2. Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index results for the Ontario-portion of the
Ottawa-Gatineau CMA for April 2015;
3. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) “Starts and Completions
Survey” and “Market Absorption Survey” results for the Ontario-portion of the
Ottawa-Gatineau CMA for April 2015;
4. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) results for the Ontario-portion of the
Ottawa-Gatineau CMA for April 2015; and
5. Statistics Canada’s Building Permits Survey results for the Ontario-portion of the
Ottawa-Gatineau CMA for March 2015.
DISCUSSION
Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) declined 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of
2015 – following gains of 0.6 per cent in the last quarter of 2014 – as the economy
struggles to absorb the shock of lower oil prices. The national Consumer Price Index
also felt the effects of lower oil prices, rising a meagre 0.8 per cent in the 12 months to
April 2015. In Ottawa, price inflation sat at 0.6 per cent for the same period.
The Canadian economy shed 19,700 jobs in April 2015 while Ontario lost 14,300 jobs.
Bucking the trend at the national and provincial levels, Ottawa added 3,100 jobs over
the same period, bringing the unemployment rate down to 6.6 per cent from a nearly
five-year peak of 7.1 per cent last month. In a recent report, the Bank of Montreal notes
that Ottawa’s knowledge-based sector is showing signs of strength, which bodes well
for the local labour market.
With regards to Ottawa’s housing market, housing starts in Ottawa totalled 466 units in
April 2015, up from 102 units the previous month. Notwithstanding the strong monthly
performance in April, year-to-date new-housing activity (913 units) is trending below the
same time last year (when starts totalled 1,027 units) with all dwelling types
experiencing a slower start, excepting condominiums.
According to the most recent figures released by Statistics Canada, the City of Ottawa
issued building permits totalling $144.3 million in March 2015: $114.7 million in
residential permits and $29.6 million in non-residential permits. While construction
intentions are off to a slower start year-to-date in 2015 (down 34.4 per cent from the
same time in 2014), the Conference Board of Canada predicts that recent investments
in non-residential construction will counterbalance the slide in residential activity, driving
industry output up 1.8 per cent this year following.
CONCLUSION
Economic Development and Innovation staff will continue to monitor these and other
trends related to the Ottawa economy and related markets.
Saad Bashir
Director, Economic Development and Innovation
CC: Kent Kirkpatrick, City Manager
SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION
Document 1 – Economic Development Update for the City of Ottawa, June 2015
Document 2 – Le point sur le développement économique pour la Ville d’Ottawa, juin
2015