International Carbon Flows - Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership

International Carbon Flows
14 November 2011
Eric Lounsbury
LowCVP/IMechE Life-Cycle Seminar
Top 10 regional bilateral flows of emissions
embodied in motor vehicles
112Mt CO2
Total Flows 115
(MtCO2)1
70
3
5
1
4
10
2
6
9
Other
4%
Asia to Europe
4%
North America to Europe
60
4%
China to Asia
55
5%
Japan to Asia
50
5%
Asia to North America
6%
Japan to Europe
6%
China to Europe
7%
Europe to North America
40
7
37%
65
45
8
112
35
30
25
20
11%
China to North America
12%
Japan to North America
15
10
5
0
1. Includes scope 1 - Direct emissions generated by OEM, Scope 2 – Allocated Electricity and Scope 3 – Other emissions associated with auto production
Note: Excludes intra regional flows; Includes bilateral flows only (ie, does not include emissions generated upstream in other regions)
Source: Carbon Trust Analysis; CICERO / SEI / CMU GTAP7 EEBT Model
2
A consumption perspective materially
changes the view of automotive emissions
Percentage change in country territorial production
emissions to reflect impact of consumption of CO2
240%
220%
EU
200%
Other Annex I
Non Annex 1
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
France
UK
Italy
USA
Spain
761Mt CO2
Germany
India
Brazil
Korea Japan
Poland
-80%
China
South Africa
Russia
-100%
Production emissions1 – MtCO2
1. Not just emissions arising in the automotive sector, but all those that arise in all sectors to satisfy global automotive consumption
Source: Carbon Trust Analysis; CICERO / SEI / CMU GTAP7 MRIO Model
3
Distribution of embodied emissions
in a typical car
Engine
19%
Chassis
4%
Note: Emissions embodied in materials only
Source: Carbon Trust; BCG Analysis
4
Emissions to satisfy UK automotive consumption
37Mt CO2
Other
Sector in which emissions generated
Air transport
Petroleum,
coal products
Trade
(eg retail)
Non ferrous metals
(eg, aluminium)
Automotive
Mineral products
(eg, glass)
Chemical,
rubber,
plastics
Transport
Ferrous Metals
Electricity
Europe (ex UK)
UK
China
Oceania
Asia Africa
Japan
India
North America
Russian Federation South America
Region where emissions produced
Source: Carbon Trust Analysis; CICERO / SEI / CMU GTAP7 MRIO Model (2004)
5
Case study on flow of Chinese electricity
emissions to UK cars
2. …which is then
turned into a metal
stamping machine in
China…
1. Chinese electricity
is used to make raw
steel in China…
3. …and shipped to
the UK where it’s used
in a car final assembly
plant…
4. …to make a
car to that is
sold to a UK
consumer
Automotive
Iron & Steel
Chemicals
Electricity
1.9MtCO2
Metals
Automotive
Metal Products
UK automotive
consumption
Machinery
Minerals
Textiles
Trade
Automotive
Automotive
Note: Map is not geographically representative
Source: Carbon Trust Analysis based on structural path analysis (SPA) of automotive global flows data from CICERO / SEI / CMU
6
Up to 80% of a vehicle's total emissions
occur in use phase
Majority of emissions from production not from OEM plants, but from
supply chain and raw materials
Lifecycle emissions of current global production ~2-3 bn tCO2e per year (4-7% of global GHG emissions)
Emissions
Value
Chain
Raw
material
R&D
Component
s
Supply
Chain
Logistics
OEM
Production
Outbound
Logistics /
Distributio
n
Marketing
/ Sales
Consumer
Usage
Recycling /
Scrapping
t CO2e per vehicle
40
Total life cycle emissions for a midsized car range from 24-36 t CO2
~30
0.3
30
Emission
baseline
standard
compact
car1
~18
~6t CO2e from production of small to midsized car2
20
24
10
~1.4
3.0
~2.4
0
% of total
emissions
~3.6
-
8-12%
~1.4
1.2
~0.5
1.2
incl. in
supply chain
~0.9
~0.9
~4%
~1%
~4%
-
-
75-85%
~1%
1 Absolute emission data based on Environmental Commendation Volkswagen Golf VI 2. Up to ~10t / car embedded and 80t in-use emissions for large premium vehicles (eg.
Mercedes S-Class)
Source: BCG Analysis based on Life cycle Analysis publications from several OEM (Daimler, Volkswagen, Toyota)
7
The potential evolution in the relative
importance of embedded emissions
compared with in-use
2009
Average car
(160g/km)
2009
Efficient Diesel car
(120g/km)
t CO2 Σ ~30 t CO2
t CO2
30
30
25
20
Σ ~24 t CO2
2010
Plug-in Hybrid1
(78g/km)
2015-20
Electric car2
(45g/km)
t CO2 Σ ~21 t CO2
t CO2
30
30
30
25
25
25
20
20
20
Σ ~16 t CO2
80%
75%
15
15
10
constant
10
embedded
emissions (6t)
increase in
embodied
emissions (50%)
from battery & 10
motor
5
5
5
20%
0
15
57%
15
43%
10
43%
5
57%
25%
0
0
0
Well-wheel emissions
Embodied emissions
Note 1: Vehicle assumed to drive 150,000km over its lifetime
1. Assumes ICE used 50% of the time and generates 89gCO2/km and electric motor for other 50%. Emissions of electric motor based upon grid factor of 450g/kWh and
motor efficiency of 15kWh/100km 2. Emissions of electric motor based upon grid emissions intensity of 300g/kWh and motor efficiency of 15kWh/100km
Source: Carbon Trust and BCG Analysis based on data from International Energy Agency, Automotive Manufacturers and Ricardo
8
Further information:
International Carbon Flows
www.carbontrust.co.uk/icf
Eric Lounsbury
Strategy Manager
[email protected]
www.carbontrust.co.uk
© The Carbon Trust, 2011
All rights reserved
Any trademarks, service marks or logos used in this presentation are the property of the Carbon Trust (or its licensors). Nothing in
this presentation shall be construed as granting any licence or right to use or reproduce any of the trademarks, service marks, logos,
copyright or any propriety information in any way without the Carbon Trust’s prior written permission. The Carbon Trust enforces
infringements of its intellectual property rights to the full extent permitted by law.
9
Forecasted evolution of in-use
emissions in cars
Well to wheel emissions by
technology
Uptake of new technologies under
“optimistic” scenario
In-use emissions (g/km)
Market share
global Sales
220
100
200
90
180
80
Consensus for
aggressive
market uptake
Extrapolation of
segment growth
10%
160
26%
70
140
120
ICE2
100
Hybrid2
Plug-In3
80
Electric3
40
50
15% Plug-in
99%
40% Hybrid
40
58%
20
25% ICE
10
20
20% Electric
60
30
60
0
2000
6%
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2000
2010
1. Extrapolated based on BCG's 2020 expectation in the case of an accelerated uptake of new propulsion technologies
2. Assumes phase in of biofuels from 0.5% in 2010 to 10% in 2020 to 20% in 2030 3. Based on decarbonisation of grid over time
Source: BCG Propulsion Model; publically available information
2020
2030
10