Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan`s Economy

Transcription

Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy
January 2012
Macro Economic Research Centre
Economics Department
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
http://www.jri.co.jp/thinktank/research/
This report is the English version of the December 2011 issue of the original Japanese version.
Current situation of Japan’s economy – Economic activity is on a slowdown trend
Japan's economy has recovered sharply from its fall after the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami disaster. Real GDP in the JulySeptember quarter 2011 grew by 5.6 per cent on a seasonally adjusted, annualised percentage change from the previous quarter basis (the
second preliminary estimates), a considerable positive growth rate. Industrial production has picked up to the level near that before the disaster,
as constraints of supply on production are removed. The level of real private consumption expenditure, shown in the Family Income and
Household Survey, has continued a moderate recovery trajectory, reflecting the improvement of consumer sentiment. Machinery orders have
been firm, and little effect of the earthquake and tsunami disaster has been seen in their statistical figures.
However, recent economic activity is on a slowdown trend. Exports have flattened out, due to a deceleration in overseas economies and the
appreciation of the yen, as the diffusion index of overseas demand conditions for products worsens. The pace of industrial production has
decelerated visibly since last summer, and the industrial inventory ratio has risen.
Figure 1 Main Indicators for Japan's Economy
(CY2005=100, s.a.)
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
2000
Household Consumption Expenditure Index (Real,
(CY2005=100, s.a., 3-m.m.a.)
Households with 2 or more household members,
"Family Income and Household Survey")
104
Industrial Inventory Ratio Index
102
100
98
Industrial Production Index
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Retail Sales Index (Real)
08
09
10
(CY2005=100, s.a., 3-m.m.a.)
120
Index for Machinery Orders (Real, Private,
110
excl. Electric Power and Shipbuilding)
100
90
80
70
Index for Building Construction Starts
60
(Floor Area, Private, Non-dwelling)
50
40
2000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
96
2000 01
02
03
04
05
06
(CY2005=100, s.a., 3-m.m.a.)
130
Real Exports Index
120
11
(Y/M)
07
08
09
10
11
(Y/M)
110
100
90
80
Real Imports Index
70
08
09
10
60
2000
11
(Y/M)
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
(Y/M)
Source: The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry; The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; The Cabinet Office; The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport; The Bank of Japan.
Note 1: Indices of industrial production and industrial inventory ratio are seasonally adjusted on a monthly basis. Others are calculated as seasonally adjusted and 3-month moving averages.
2: The industrial production index in November and December 2011 is based on METI forecasts. 3: Shaded areas indicate periods of recession, the first according to the Cabinet Office, and the latter to JRI.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy January 2012
-1-
Real GDP – Has recovered to the level before the quake and tsunami disaster
Japan's economy has recovered sharply from its considerable fall after the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami disaster. Real GDP in the
July-September quarter 2011 grew by 5.6 per cent on a seasonally adjusted, annualised percentage change from the previous quarter basis (the
second preliminary estimates), a positive growth rate for the first time in three quarters. As a result, real GDP has returned to the level before the
disaster.
The worrying factors have nearly all been removed, such as the tendency of consumers to refrain from spending that could wait due to a mood
of voluntary self restraint, and the decline in production activity caused by the cut off of supply chains.
In the household sector, business conditions in department stores and other services have recovered to the level near that before the disaster.
In the corporate sector, production and sales of automobiles have picked up remarkably. Production of automobiles has kept its increasing trend
on the whole, as the negative effect of floods in Thailand on domestic automobile production seems to be limited. The level of sales of
automobiles is now higher than before the disaster. Machinery orders have maintained their firm pace, although machinery orders in
manufacturing have tended to weaken slightly.
Figure 2-1 Real GDP
Figure 2-2 Business Conditions by
<seasonally adjusted,
Industry in The Economy
annualised>
(Trillion yen)
550
540
Watchers Survey
40
Real GDP
(annualised,
left scale)
60
30
130
120
20(％)
15
March 2011
The Great East
Japan Earthquake
10
510
5
100
40
90
80
30
Q-on-Q %
change
(annualised,
right scale)
490
▲5
20
10
▲ 15
11
(Y/Q)
50
Automobile production
生産台数
40
Automobile sales
販売台数
30
0
2010
11
▲ 20
10
60
▲ 10
480
2009
70
Department store
百貨店
Travel and transport- related
旅行・交通関連
レジャー施設関連
Leisure facility-related
0
500
March 2011
The Great East
Japan Earthquake
110
50
25
530
<seasonally adjusted>
(CY2005=100)
March 2011
The Great East Japan Earthquake
35
520
Figure 2-3 Automobile Production and Sales
Source: The Cabinet Office.
2010
(Y/M)
11
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on the
(Y/M)
data of Japan Automobile Dealers Association,
Japan Mini Vehicles Association.
-2-
Several negative factors have been materialising
It should be noted that several negative factors to the economy have been materialising. One of such factors is the fact that reconstruction
activities including public investment have yet to start in earnest, as it is taking a longer time than expected to remove such a huge quantity of
debris. Furthermore, sales of TV sets have shown a sharp reactionary fall after the rushed increase before the changeover to digital broadcasting
last year.
In addition, the pace of industrial production has decelerated visibly since last summer. Although the index of industrial production increased
last October by 2.2 per cent, the index is estimated to have decreased again last November by 0.1 per cent. The main reason for the deceleration
in industrial production is the flattening out in exports. The slowdown in overseas economies and the appreciation of the yen have been weighing
factors for Japan's exports. The PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index), which exhibits business conditions in manufacturing, has been weakening in
the US, the eurozone and China.
The key points to the prospects for Japan's economy are the degree of negative effect of the slowdown in overseas economies on overseas
demand, and the extent of the strength of domestic demand as the driving force for the economy.
Figure 3-2 Industrial Production Index
Figure 3-1 Government Final Consumption
and Export Quantity
Expenditure and Public Investment
(Trillion yen)
March 2011
The Great East Japan Earthquake
106
105
<seasonally adjusted, annualised>
(Trillion yen)
(% points)
(CY2005=100)
輸出数量
Export quantity
130
65
鉱工業生産指数
Industrial production index
120
60
21
110
104
103
20
55
100
50
90
102
101
Figure 3-3 The PMI in Manufacturing
19
45
US
米国
Eurozone
ユーロ圏
中国
China
80
40
100
70
Government final consumption
政府最終消費支出（左目盛）
expenditure (left scale)
Public investment (right scale)
公共投資（右目盛）
99
98
97
2009
10
11
(Y/Q)
35
18
60
17
50
2008
09
10
11
(Y/M)
Source: The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry,
The Ministry of Finance.
30
2007
08
09
10
11 (Y/M)
Source: Institute for Supply Management, Markit,
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.
Note: The forecast is based on the production forecast index.
-3-
Overseas demand – The effect of the slowdown in overseas economies would be limited
It is expected that the US economy will maintain its moderate recovery trend, as an increase in exports and solid corporate profits bolster
economic activity. It is predicted that the Chinese economy will be supported by its domestic demand, although the pace of increase in exports is
tending to slow down.
On the other hand, European economies as a whole are projected to see a slightly negative figure in the real GDP change rate through the
early part of this year, due to austerity budgets, worsening employment and income environments, and so on. However, the negative effect of the
deterioration in European economies on Japan's economy would be limited, because the share of exports to the EU in total exports is 15.3 per
cent on a value basis in FY2010, which is smaller than that of exports to the US or China. Also, as long as European economies do not fall into a
deep recession, the indirect negative effect of the slowdown in China's exports to the EU, which have a larger share viewed by destination, on
Japan's exports to China would be limited, .
However, if a worsening of the European debt crisis leads to a global financial crisis just like the Lehman shock in 2008, the adverse effect of a
deterioration in the world economy on Japan's economy could be more significant.
Figure 4-1 Exports and Corporate
Figure 4-2 The CPI and Base Lending
Profits in the US
Rate in China
<year-on-year % change>
（％）
10
(％)
15
80
70
5
60
0
50
▲5
40
(％)
30
Earnings per share （S&P500,
non-financials, right scale）
▲ 15
20
▲ 20
10
0
▲ 25
▲ 10
▲ 30
▲ 20
▲ 35
▲ 30
▲ 40
▲ 40
2005
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Standard & Poor's, US Census Bureau.
11
(Y/Q)
the Eurozone and China's
Base lending rate (one year, right scale)
貸出基準金利（１年物、右目盛）
Exports to the EU
（％）
8.0
CPI (year-on-year % change, left scale))
ＣＰＩ（前年比、左目盛）
90
Real exports (left scale)
10
▲ 10
Figure 4-3 Real GDP Growth Rate in
8
7.5
6
7.0
4
6.5
<year-on-year % change>
（％）
4
2
25
0
0
China's exports to EU
(right scale)
6.0
2
▲2
▲25
5.5
0
▲2
2008
（％）
50
5.0
09
10
11
12
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Note: The dotted line shows JRI estimate on the
assumption that food prices would be flat.
▲4
▲50
Real GDP in the
eurozone (left scale)
(Y/M)
▲6
▲75
2005
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Eurostat, Statistics of China Customs.
11
(Y/Q)
-4-
Overseas demand – The strong yen continues to lower profits and exports
The recent exchange rates of the yen against the US dollar and the euro, which have appreciated further, are well beyond the rates assumed by
Japanese enterprises. It is expected that the continued strong yen will have a significant negative effect on corporate profits and exports.
Especially, the highly appreciated yen is likely to reduce considerably the corporate profits of the machinery sector, which is one of Japan's
main industrial sectors, through exchange rate losses. The JRI estimates show that corporate profits in the machinery sector, which includes
automobiles and general machinery, will be reduced by 490 billion yen in the second half of FY2011, if the exchange rate of the yen against the
US dollar remains 75 / dollar and that against the euro 100 / euro.
Looking at Japan's trade value which is settled in US dollars, the value of imports is more than that of exports, which suggests net exchange
rate gains in the total. The basic materials sector, for example, which imports materials denominated in dollars, enjoys the advantage of the
strong yen. However, the highly appreciated yen is predicted to lower the quantity of exports. Further, the strong yen has continued against Asian
currencies such as the Korean won as well. Taking these unfavourable factors into consideration, it is predicted that downward pressure on
corporate profits will strengthen and a strong sense of deceleration will be felt in Japan's exports.
Figure 5-1 Indices for the Exchange
Appreciation of the Yen on
Currency for Settlement
<rebased, CY2005=100>
Profits of the Machinery Sector
<the first half of CY2011>
in the Second Half of FY2011
（CY2005=100）
130
(Trillion yen)
(100 billion yen)
yen / US dollar
120
yen / euro
100
90
yen / US dollar
円・ドル
80
yen / euro
円・ユーロ
70
Appreciation of the yen
06
07
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
08
09
10
11
（Y/M）
35
others
30
80
75
70
65
60
110
- 0.8
- 3.9
- 7.0
- 10.1
- 13.3
105
- 1.3
- 4.4
- 7.5
- 10.6
- 13.8
110
60
2005
Figure 5-3 Trade Value by the
Figure 5-2 Estimates of the Effect of
Rates of the Yen
20
100
- 1.8
- 4.9
- 8.0
- 11.1
- 14.3
15
95
- 2.3
- 5.4
- 8.5
- 11.6
- 14.8
10
90
- 2.8
- 5.9
- 9.0
- 12.2
- 15.3
5
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on the data
of The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications,
The Ministry of Finance, The Bank of Japan.
Note: The machinery sector includes general machinery,
electrical machinery, transport equipment, and so on.
euro
25
yen
US dollar
0
Exports
Imports
Source: The Ministry of Finance.
-5-
Domestic demand – Reconstruction demand would materialise in earnest in CY2012
It is expected that demand stemming from reconstruction will boost the economic activity from now on. Based on the JRI forecast which was
made on the basis of the restoration pattern after the Great Hanshin Awaji Earthquake disaster in 1995, reconstruction demand related to building
including housing is predicted to expand from early this year onwards.
The third supplementary budget in FY2011, which was approved in the Diet last November, amounted to a total of 12.1 trillion yen, 9.2 trillion
yen of which was related to the reconstruction. It is currently forecast that the third supplementary budget will be implemented in order from the
start of this year onwards. Around 6 trillion yen, after excluding items such as loans, support for employment and subsidiaries, from the 9.2 trillion
yen is counted as the amount which can boost the real GDP growth rate directly. Based on this analysis, it is estimated that this around 6 trillion
yen would lift the real GDP growth rate by around 1 per cent in FY2012.
However, uncertainty still remains as to whether the reconstruction projects would be implemented rapidly and smoothly and bolster the
economic activity or not, as the removal of debris will take a long time, as will drawing up new city planning in the affected areas.
Figure 6-1 Forecast about Reconstruction
Figure 6-2 The Outline of The Third
Demand related to Building
<annualised>
Supplementary Budget
Third Supplementary Budget
in FY2011
on Real GDP
(100 million yen)
Expenses related to the Great East Japan Earthquake
92,438
Disposal of debris
3,860
14,734
Additional public works
Expenses related to reconstruction from the nuclear disaster
3,558
National disaster prevention measures
5,752
Disaster relief, Disaster-related public financing programs
7,656
Local allocation tax grants
16,635
The Great East Japan Earthquake reconstruction grants
15,612
Other expenses related to the Great East Japan Earthquake 24,631
(Trillion yen)
住宅
Housing
民間建築
Private building
1.5
公共建築
Public building
1.0
0.5
Compensation for extraordinary financing from pension fund
Expenses for disaster recovery related to Typhoon No.12, etc.
Expenses related to payments to patients of type-B hepatitis
0.0
2011
12
Figure 6-3 The Boosting Effect of The
13
data of The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and
(Y/Q)
24,897
3,210
480
121,025
Total
data of The Ministry of Finance.
<macro model simulation>
（％）
1.2
Nominal GDP
名目ＧＤＰ
実質ＧＤＰ
Real GDP
＋1.12
＋0.94
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
＋0.26
＋0.26
＋0.22
＋0.16
0.2
0.0
2011
12
13
(FY)
data of The Ministry of Finance.
Transport, the forecast by JRI.
-6-
Domestic demand – Private consumption expenditure will recover as sentiment improves
It should be noted that the decline in private consumption expenditure after the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami disaster has been
due to a decline in consumer sentiment, while the drop after the Lehman shock was caused by the decrease in compensation for employees.
Accordingly, it is very likely that private consumption expenditure will recover to a level in proportion to that of income, as consumer sentiment
improves. It can be said that consumer sentiment is already on a recovery trend, as shown in the fact that the consumer confidence index has
picked up sharply.
Meanwhile, the floods in Thailand might be a downswing factor to private consumption expenditure. Constraints on the supply of HDDs (hard
disk drives) are expected to be prolonged, as the largest production strongholds are located in Thailand. The price of HDDs has risen sharply
after the flooding, because of the rapid decline in production and anxiety that the inventory could be wiped out. The rise in the price of HDDs
could have a negative effect on year-end sales of digital products loaded with HDDs. Sales of automobiles, the production of which has also been
affected by the floods in Thailand, are estimated to have weakened in the October-December period last year due to the decline in production.
However, sales of automobiles are predicted to recover in the January-March quarter as normal production has already resumed.
Figure 7-1 Compensation for Employees and
Figure 7-2 Consumer Sentiment
Private Consumption Expenditure
(Trillion yen)
(Trillion yen)
245
Figure 7-3 Automobile Production
<seasonally adjusted, annualised>
48
(10,000 cars)
46
1,300
金額（右目盛）
The total value (right scale)
44
1,200
台数（左目盛）
The number of cars (left scale)
42
1,100
40
1,000
38
900
(Trillion yen)
265
240
260
235
255
230
250
225
The consumer confidence index
消費者態度指数
36
245
220
2005
06
07
08
09
10
11
(Y/Q)
Compensation for employees (left scale)
雇用者報酬（左目盛）
Final consumption expenditure of households (excluding
家計最終消費支出（除く帰属家賃、右目盛）
imputed service of owner-occupied dwellings, right scale)
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on
the data of The Cabinet Office.
25
Forecast
20
15
800
Overall livelihood
暮らし向き
34
30
700
Willingness to buy durable goods
耐久財の買い時
10
600
32
5
500
30
2010
11
(Y/M)
the data of The Cabinet Office.
2008
09
10
11
12
(Y/Q)
data of The Ministry of Economy, Trade and
Industry, The Bank of Japan, the forecast by JRI.
-7-
Domestic demand - The increase in the financial burden on households
It is highly likely that the financial burden on households will rise because the government is expected to have to increase revenues for
reconstruction. As the period during which income tax is raised for reconstruction was decided to be 25 years, the financial burden on households
per year will be light. On the other hand, a further reduction of tax exemptions for dependents as the revenue for child allowances, and a rise in
pension premiums will be a heavy financial burden on households. As a result, net benefit to households in FY2012 is expected to decrease by
one trillion yen from the previous fiscal year. The decrease in net benefit is predicted to be a downswing factor to private consumption expenditure
through a decline in disposable income of households. The JRI macro economic model simulation shows that a decrease in disposable income by
one trillion yen will lower private consumption expenditure ultimately by 700 billion yen.
In the forecast, it is assumed that the consumption tax will be raised from FY2013 onwards. If the consumption tax is raised in April 2013, it is
likely that a rushed increase in demand for housing and durable consumer goods in the main will be seen in the second half of FY2012. Also, it is
predicted that an increase in prices caused by the rise in the consumption tax will lower private consumption expenditure in real terms through a
decline in purchasing power of households.
Figure 8-1 Financial Burden on and
Figure 8-2 The effect of Decrease in
Benefit to Households
(Trillion yen)
3
Figure 8-3 Household Expenditure
Disposable Income by One
Before and After the Rise
Trillion Yen <annualised>
in Consumption Tax
<1995-1997>
<macro economic simulation>
2
（Peak = 100）
(Trillion yen)
1
0.0
0
The first year
The second year
The third year
100
３％ → ５％
95
▲1
▲0.2
▲2
Private consumption expenditure
個人消費
90
ＧＤＰ
GDP
▲3
85
2010
11
12
13
(FY)
Child allowances
子ども手当
Free of charge
高校授業料
public high schools
House-to-house
農業戸別補償
compensation to farmers
Cuts in tax exemptions
扶養控除
for dependents
Tax rises for
復興増税
reconstruction
Rises in pension
年金保険料
premiums
Net receipts
ネット受取
Source: The Japan Research Institute.
▲0.4
80
Housing starts
住宅着工戸数
75
Durable consumer goods
耐久財消費
▲0.6
70
1995
96
▲0.8
97
(Y/Q)
Source: The Cabinet Office, The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure
Source: The Japan Research Institute.
and Transport.
-8-
Domestic demand – The shift of production strongholds to overseas sites
The increasing trend in Japan's manufacturers' shift of their production strongholds to overseas sites has extended over a long period of time. In
recent years, in addition to the strong yen, they have gone into foreign sites in order to acquire local expanding demand, as emerging economies
led by those in Asia continue their high economic growth rates. Furthermore, not only emerging economies but also Korea, which is a country with
a mature economic structure like Japan, is an attractive candidate for the sites where Japan's manufacturers consider shifting their strongholds.
The factors which make Korea an attractive place are an active free trade policy shown in the conclusion of FTAs (free trade agreements) with
major advanced economies, the low rate of corporate tax, the weak Korean won, inexpensive electricity charges, and so on. These business
environments seem to contrast sharply with those in Japan since the earthquake and tsunami disaster.
If the situation where advantages of domestic production are being lost is left as it is, it is probable that the pace of Japan's manufacturers
shifting their production strongholds to overseas sites will accelerate, as they seek more favourable business environments. If the situation
deteriorates into the hollowing out of industry, Japan's medium and long term economic growth rate could decline, as business fixed investment
continues to stagnate in the longer term.
Figure 9-2 Overseas Direct Investment
Figure 9-1 Overseas Production Ratio
（％）
25
Manufacturers have shifted
Japan's overseas investment (left scale)
対外直接投資額（左目盛）
(Trillion yen)
Forecast (5 years thereafter)
５年後見通し（５年先行）
実績
Actual
20
Figure 9-3 Countries where Japanese
of Japan
in Japanese Manufacturing
20
（％）
The real GDP growth rate of
Asian emerging economies
アジア新興国成長率（１期先行、右目盛）
12
(one year advance, right scale)
15
10
their Production Strongholds
(enterprises)
250
850
(59.9)
800
200
～～～～～～～～～～～～～
～～～～～～～～～～～～～
15
8
10
(9.9)
150
6
10
(6.9)
100
5
(5.9)
4
5
0
1990
95
00
05
10
15
(FY)
2
0
0
1996
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Note: the overseas production ratio =
the value of overseas production /
the total value of domestic and overseas production
(CY)
50
0
China
India
Korea
Taiwan
Source: Teikoku Databank, Ltd. .
the data of The Ministry of Finance, The IMF.
Note: The figure in parentheses shows the share
in the total.
-9-
Prospects for Japan's economy - Projected real GDP change; - 0.2% in FY2011 and 1.8% in FY2012
(1) Japan's real GDP in the July-September quarter last year grew by 5.6 per cent on a seasonally adjusted, annualised percentage change from
the previous quarter basis (the second preliminary estimates). In this issue of the Monthly Report, the estimated growth rate of real GDP in
FY2011 was revised downwards from 0.6 per cent to minus 0.2 per cent, and the forecast growth rate of real GDP in FY2012 starting April 2012
was also revised downwards from 1.9 per cent to 1.8 per cent. This reflects the change in the benchmark year in GDP statistics from 2000 to 2005
and subsequent downward revisions in the actual figures in the past, although the main scenario of continued recovery during the forecast period
is unchanged.
(2) Looking at the prospects for the economy from the October-December quarter last year onwards, it is predicted that a sense of deceleration
will intensify, because of negative factors such as a slowdown in exports reflecting a deceleration in overseas economies and the strong yen, and
a flattening out in domestic business fixed investment caused by the accelerating shift of production strongholds to overseas sites.
However, the situation where the economy falters will be able to be avoided for the following reasons:
1) Firm emerging economies, led by China, are expected to bolster Japan's exports.
2) It is predicted that demand stemming from reconstruction will materialise in earnest from the first of this year onwards, and housing
investment and public demand will increase.
3) Private consumption expenditure is expected to pick up gradually, as employment and income environments improve moderately.
(3) On the other hand, there is a significant risk that the pace of economic recovery could decelerate even further, caused by the following factors:
1) If a worsening of the European debt crisis leads to a global financial crisis just like the Lehman shock in 2008, the adverse effect of a
deterioration in the world economy on Japan's economy could be more significant.
2) Although it is currently assumed that the third supplementary budget in FY2011 would be implemented in order from the start of this year
onwards, the implementation of reconstruction projects could lag considerably, as the removal of debris will take a long time, and drawing up new
city planning in the affected areas is still partly undecided .
(4) Meanwhile, the year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (the core CPI) is expected to stay in negative
territory, because the deflationary pressure is difficult to wipe out as shown in the declining trend in prices of household appliances, as resource
prices are predicted to stay flat.
- 10 -
Figure 11 Projections for GDP Growth and Main Indicators of Japan ( as of December 9, 2011 )
(seasonally adjusted, annualised % changes from the previous quarter)
CY2011
1～3
4～6
(Actual)
Real ＧＤＰ
Private Consumption Expenditure
Housing Investment
Business Fixed Investment
CY2012
7～9
10～12
1～3
4～6
(Projection)
CY2013
7～9
10～12
(Projection)
1～3
(Projection)
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012
(Actual)
(Projection)
▲ 6.6
▲ 2.0
5.6
1.2
2.3
2.0
1.7
0.9
0.4
3.1
▲ 0.2
1.8
▲ 4.9
1.1
3.0
0.5
1.3
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
1.6
0.3
0.9
7.3
▲ 7.8
22.4
▲ 3.5
3.9
3.7
8.7
1.2
▲ 3.9
2.3
4.6
4.0
▲ 3.5
▲ 2.1
▲ 1.6
1.9
2.4
3.2
4.0
3.0
2.6
3.5
▲ 1.3
2.7
0.2) (
0.2) (
0.2) (
0.1) (
0.1)
0.8)
(▲ 0.3) (
0.1)
Private Inventories (percentage points contribution) (▲ 2.9)
(▲ 0.0) (
1.1)
(▲ 0.3) (
1.9
2.9
0.9
1.9
1.5
1.1
0.4
1.2
1.2
2.3
1.9
1.1
Public Investment
▲ 7.2
29.8
▲ 3.9
8.1
18.2
13.0
3.5
▲ 4.4
▲ 9.8
▲ 6.8
5.2
6.1
Net Exports (percentage points contribution)
(▲ 0.6)
(▲ 0.7) (
0.1)
Government Consumption Expenditure
(▲ 3.9) (　2.3)
▲ 0.2 ▲ 21.7
Exports of Goods and Services
4.5
Imports of Goods and Services
1.7
(▲ 0.0)
(▲ 0.1)
(▲ 0.0) (　0.0)
32.7
2.2
4.7
4.1
14.9
2.3
4.9
3.9
(▲ 0.0) (▲ 0.1)
(
(
0.8)
4.1
3.2
2.5
17.2
▲ 0.0
5.2
3.8
3.3
3.2
12.0
5.1
4.4
(% changes from the same quarter of the previous year)
Real ＧＤＰ
Nominal ＧＤＰ
GDP deflator
Consumer Price Index (excluding fresh food)
Industrial Production Index
Unemployment Rate
Current Account Balances
Share of Nominal GDP
Exchange Rates
Import Price of Crude Oil
(％)
(trillion JY)
(％)
(JY/US$)
(US$/barrel)
▲ 0.2
▲ 2.2
▲ 1.9
▲ 0.8
▲ 2.6
▲ 1.7
▲ 4.0
▲ 2.4
▲ 0.2
▲ 6.8
▲ 0.7
▲ 2.9
▲ 2.2
0.2
▲ 2.1
▲ 0.3
▲ 1.7
▲ 1.4
▲ 0.1
▲ 1.5
1.9
0.6
▲ 1.3
▲ 0.1
3.6
2.7
2.3
▲ 0.4
▲ 0.3
8.8
1.9
1.5
▲ 0.5
▲ 0.4
5.7
1.5
1.3
▲ 0.2
▲ 0.3
5.9
1.3
0.8
▲ 0.5
▲ 0.3
3.9
3.1
1.1
▲ 2.0
▲ 0.9
9.0
▲ 0.2
▲ 2.0
▲ 1.8
▲ 0.0
▲ 1.8
1.8
1.5
▲ 0.4
▲ 0.3
6.0
4.7
3.99
3.5
82
97
4.6
1.54
1.3
82
115
4.4
2.98
2.6
77
114
4.2
2.60
2.1
77
110
4.2
2.88
2.5
78
110
4.2
2.34
2.0
79
110
4.1
3.14
2.7
80
110
4.1
2.50
2.0
80
110
4.0
3.00
2.6
80
110
5.0
16.13
3.4
86
84
4.4
9.99
2.1
79
112
4.1
10.98
2.3
80
110
Source: The Cabinet Office; The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry; The Ministry of Finance.
The projection figures are based on those of The Japan Research Institute, Ltd.
Note 1: "▲" indicates minus.
2: The assumptions on major overseas economies shown as the real GDP growth rates: the US 1.7% in CY2011, 1.9% in CY2012; the euro area 1.6% in CY2011,
▲ 0.0% in CY2012; China 9.3% in CY2011, 8.8% in CY2012.
- 11 -

Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan`s Economy

Transcription

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