human development trends

Education Policy and Planning
Masters in Human Rights and Ethics of International Cooperation
University of Bergamo
Morocco Education Sector Analysis
Sobhi TAWIL
8-10 March 2012
Contents
1. Context: Development trends and challenges in Morocco
2. Education sector diagnosis:
Access
Equity
Quality
Efficiency (Internal & External)
Governance
3. Analysis: How can the educational crisis be explained?
Context
Development trends and challenges
in Morocco
Average per capita income 2005
Country
Qatar
Kuwait
UAE
Bahrain
Saudi Arabia
Oman
Libya
Lebanon
Algeria
Tunisia
Jordan
Morocco
Syria
Egypt
Palestine
Djibouti
Yemen
Sudan
Mauritania
GDP per capita
(USD)
52,240
31,861
28,612
17,773
13,399
9,584
6,621
6,135
3,112
2,860
2,323
1,711
1,382
1,207
1,107
894
718
760
603
Income Level
High
Medium
Low
Source: Données adaptées du Rapport sur le Développement dans le Monde 2007-08 (PNUD, 2007).
Levels of Human Development 2005
Country
Human Development Index (HDI)
HDI value
Kuweait
Qatar
UAE
Bahrain
Libya
Oman
Saudi Arabia
Jordan
Lebanon
Tunisia
Algeria
Palestine
Syria
Morocco
Egypt
Mauritania
Sudan
Djibouti
Yemen
0.891
0.875
0.868
0.866
0.818
0.814
0.812
0.773
0.772
0.766
0.733
0.731
0.724
0.646
0.708
0.550
0.526
0.516
0.508
International
Ranking
33
35
39
41
56
58
61
86
88
91
104
106
108
126
112
137
147
149
153
HDI
Level
High
Medium
Source : UNDP 2007.
Note : Un niveau IDH élevé est défini par une valeur de 0.800 ou plus. Un niveau IDH moyen est défini par une valeur se
situant entre 5.00 et 0.799.
Population and Demographic Structure
Pays
Algérie
Arabie saoudite
Bahreïn
Djibouti
Egypte
Emirats Arabes Unis
Jordanie
Kuweit
Liban
Libye
Maroc
Mauritanie
Palestine
Oman
Qatar
Soudan
Syrie
Tunisie
Yémen
Source: UNDP 2007.
Population
Totale
(millions)
Population
urbaine
(% du total)
32.9
23.6
0.7
0.8
72.8
4.1
5.5
2.7
4.0
5.9
30.5
3.0
3.8
2.5
0.8
36.9
18.9
10.1
21.1
63.3
81.0
96.5
86.1
42.8
76.7
82.3
98.3
86.6
84.8
58.7
40.4
71.6
71.5
95.4
40.8
50.6
65.3
27.3
Population
moins de 15
ans
(% du total)
29.6
34.5
26.3
38.5
33.3
19.8
37.2
23.8
28.6
30.3
30.3
40.3
45.9
33.8
21.7
40.7
36.6
26.0
45.8
Evolution of rural and urban poverty 1984-1999
Relative number of persons living in poverty & poverty rates
Evolution of people living in poverty and rate of poverty in Morocco
Date
1984/85
1990/91
1998/99
Poverty line
(in DH)
Absolute number
of persons living
in poverty (‘000)
Poverty rate (%)
Urban
1966
1300
13.8
Rural
1760
3300
26.7
Total
-
4600
21.1
Urban
2725
912
7.6
Rural
2439
2448
18.0
Total
-
3360
13.1
Urban
3922
1814
12.0
Rural
3037
3496
27.2
Total
-
5310
19.0
Residence
Source: Direction de la Statistique. Based on LSMS data for 1991 and 1999.
• The weight of the share of youth in total population
• Significant social and regional disparities
• High incidence of rural poverty
• Urban poverty and economic vulnerability
2. Educational Sector Diagnosis
•
•
•
•
•
Access and equity
Quality
Internal efficiency
External efficiency
Governance
Access and Equity
Gross Enrolment Ratios (GER) in primary (1991-2008) :
Distribution by sex
Source: Direction de la Statistique, de la Stratégie et de la Planification (DSSP), MEN.
Gross Enrolment Ratios (GER) primary (1991-2008) :
Distribution by Urban/Rural residence
Source: Direction de la Statistique, de la Stratégie et de la Planification (DSSP), MEN.
Gross Enrolment Ratios (GER) Lower secondary (1991-2008) :
Distribution by sex
Source: Direction de la Statistique, de la Stratégie et de la Planification (DSSP), MEN.
Gross Enrolment Ratios (GER) Lower Secondary (1991-2008) :
Distribution by U/R residence
Source: Direction de la Statistique, de la Stratégie et de la Planification (DSSP), MEN.
an
Countries
at
ar
Le
ba
no
n
Ba
hr
ai
n
Jo
rd
an
82.9
Q
81.7
Sy
ria
Ku
wa
it
77.3
Li
by
a
80
Ar
ab
ia
UA
E
m
ia
73.2
S.
O
70
Tu
ni
s
40
ge
ria
49
Al
60
Su
da
n
50
Eg
yp
t
I ra
q
M
au
r it
an
ia
Ye
m
en
M
or
oc
co
% of the population
Adult Literacy 2000
100
90
87
82.9
88.5
90.9
84.2
74.4
77.9
68.9
55.6
59.9
50.7
40
41.2
30
Declining Adult Illiteracy (1960-2008)
100
90
87
75
80
65
70
54
60
taux
50
d'analphabétisme
40
43
38,5
34
30
20
10
0
60
71
82
94
Année
04
06
08
Source : Bilan 2007-2008 et Enquête nationale sur l’analphabétisme, la non scolarisation et la déscolarisation au
Maroc, décembre 2006, Secrétariat d’Etat à l’Alphabétisation et à l’Education Non Formelle
Literacy Rates (10+) Morocco:
Distribution by gender and residence (2004)
Gender
Residence
Urban
Rural
Total
Male
81,2
54
69,2
Female
60,5
25,5
45,3
Total
70,6
39,5
57
Source : Secrétariat d’Etat à l’Alphabétisation et à l’Education Non Formelle, bilan 2004-2005.
Literacy Rates (10+ ) Morocco
Distribution by income group and gender
Gender
I
II
Income quintile
III
IV
V
Total
Male
42.4
50.2
56.8
66.6
81.6
60.5
Female
16.5
19.5
28.9
37.4
52.4
31.7
Total
28.3
34.6
42.0
50.9
66.6
45.3
Note:
Groupe de revenu (quintile) base sur estimation des dépenses par habitant. Quintile I représente le niveau de
dépenses le plus faible. Quintile V représente le niveau de dépenses le plus élevé.
Source: Données issues de l’Ennvm 1991.
Quality of Learning
TIMSS 2003 : Results for Grade 8
TIMSS 2007 : Results in mathematics
TIMSS 2007 : Results in science
Internal & External Efficiency
Drop Out Rates
Primary and Lower Secondary (1991-2006)
Drop Out Rates
Upper Secondary Education 1991-2006
Repeater Rates
Distribution by level (1991-2006)
Unemployment and levels of educational attainment in Morocco
Distribution by residence
Unemploment rates by level of educational attainment
Maghreb 2005
Level of Educational Attainment
Country
Algeria
Morocco
Tunisia
Share of youth
(15-29) in
overall
unemployment
(en %)
None
Primary
Secondary
Higher
10
30
30
68
67
9
28
31
38
39
10
21
16
8
69
Source : Ammour, L. (2006). « Changement social et immobilisme politique au Maghreb central ». In Dufourcq, J. & L.
Borgomano-Loup (Eds). Le Maghreb stratégique (2ème partie). Rome. NATO Defense College. NDC Occasional Papers Series.
Education as a « Ticket to Nowhere »
"Literacy and education are for many a ticket to nowhere. The
longer this phenomenon persists, the more likely a growing
disillusionment with such skills will set in, with undoubtedly
drastic long-term results".
Lavy, Spratt & Leboucher (1995: 29)
Symptoms of multidimensional crisis
Educational Crisis in Morocco
• Incomplete and inequitable access to basic education
• High graduate unemployment
• The paradox of public spending in education
Growth in public educational expenditure (1966-1995)
MoE
Budget
(current)
CPI
(average)
MoE
Budget
(adjusted)
Pop.
Growth
Rate
Growth in
Spending
(per cap)
GDP
(per cap)
(3)
Growth in
Spending
(in real
terms)
(4)
(1)
(2)
(5)
(6)
(7)
1966
523
100
523
1.0
1.0
-
1.0
1970
669
133.0
503
0.962
1.10
- 0.04
1.095
1976
2547
188.7
1349.8
2.58
1.28
1.30
1.26
1980
3529
238.2
1481.5
2.83
1.41
1.42
1.37
1985
6079
340.4
1785.8
3.41
1.60
1.81
1.54
1990
10187
486.4
2094.4
4.0
1.82
2.18
1.73
1995
15215
695.0
2189.2
4.19
2.07
2.12
1.93
Year
Note:
Data based on a rate of inflation of 5.9 percent for 1965-1980 and of 7.4 percent for
1980-1989 (World Development Report: The World Bank, 1990).
Key:
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
MoE budget in current prices (000,000 Dh.).
Average Consumer Price Index.
MoE budget adjusted to 1966 Dh. (000,000 Dh.).
Rate of growth of public expenditure in real terms.
Rate of demographic growth in terms of the 1966 population.
Rate of per capita public expenditure in real terms.
Rate of growth of GDP per capita.
Growth in primary educational expenditure
1966-1995
Year
MoE Budget
(current)
MoE Budget
(adjusted)
Growth of
Educational
Spending
Per Capita
Educational
Spending
GDP
Per capita
1966
303.7
303.7
1.0
-
1.0
1970
313.4
235.6
0.775
-0.325
1.095
1976
864.7
458.2
1.508
0.228
1.26
1981
1801.3
704.2
2.318
0.872
1.41
1988
3192.3
757.0
2.492
0.764
1.649
1995
5010.7
721.0
2.374
0.304
1.93
Note: All figures adjusted to 1966.
Causes of non-take up of primary schooling in Morocco
Urban/rural disaggregation
Causes (% of total)
Urban
Rural
Total
1
Provision of schooling
6.3
25.8
23.7
2
Economic constraints
39.7
39.4
39.4
3
Attitudes and values
13.5
22.6
21.6
4
Family difficulties
14.3
6.2
7.0
5
Other factors
33.2
6.7
9.4
Source:
Based on Moroccan Living Standards Measurement Survey data .
Note
(1) = Local school unavailable
(2) = Lack of money and demand for child work within or outside the family.
(3) = Negative attitudes towards schooling & benefits, lack of interest.
3. Explaining the educational crisis
• The weight of history : colonial heritage
• The high incidence of poverty
• Weak strategic sector management
• Inequitable educational policies
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