Trends of the world economy - Facultés des Sciences Juridiques
Transcription
Trends of the world economy - Facultés des Sciences Juridiques
Trends of the world economy: how competition landscape will look like in the next decades? Elhadj Ezzahid Mohammed V-Agdal University Faculty of Law and Economics Rabat-Morocco e-mail: [email protected] Draft 1-to be presented to the 2nd International Symposium on Education, Psychology, Society and Tourism (ISEPST 2014)-Tokyo-Japan Abstract Policymakers must never lose the big picture concerning the ongoing transformations affecting world competition. These transformations affect the major players, the driving industries, and the most important innovations that will shape the world trade and business in the coming years. The major geographic transformation will be the consecration of Asia’s countries as the major players in both exporting and importing. The locus of world competitions will be for decades in Asia. The most active industries will be those related to Internet, human mobility, energy economizing, and diseases’ fighting and health care activities. Innovations related to the driving industries will be the most important in forging the competitive advantage of countries. Key words Trends, World economy, Global value chain, World competition 1 1. Introduction The world economy is, in each period, dominated by some countries/regions, by some industries and driven by some innovations/technologies that are shaping the nature, the pace, and the pattern of international competition. A full knowledge of the over-average growing countries and the driving industries and innovations are essential for a good understanding of the trends shaping the future economy. Any country must have a deep knowledge of these elements in order to survive in the world competition. The importance of the thinking about the current transformations of the world economy stems from the fact that we are eyewitnesses of a big change that constitute a historical transformation. We are in a moment of a passage from an era to a new one. It is a real bifurcation. This transformation carries plenty of opportunities but is also a source of unprecedented tremendous risks. In this paper we will explore the engines of the world economy. The objective is to help policymakers to identify the main elements that drive the world economy. This may help to devise a strategy founded on deep, solid, and robust understanding of industrial, regional, technological, and social transformations shaping the world economy. The paper is structured as follows. In the second section, I outline a longrun historical perspective of the world economy. In the third section, I discuss the regional powers that are currently the leaders of the world economy and those countries that are going to be major players since now or in the 5, 10 or 20 coming years. In the fourth section, some ideas about the leading sectors in the world economy are discussed. In the fifth section, the technological drivers of growth are explored. The last section serves to conclude. 1. A long run perspective of the world economy The phenomenon of growth is a rather modern fact. Major transformations in the 16th century brought in a beginning of sustainable growth. It was in the Western Europe and especially England that this growth took its inception1. 1 It is probable that the new institutional set up introduced by the glorious revolution that occurred consequently to the Magna Carta Libertatum in England at 1215 a.c. was the determinant of the fact that the first country that known the industrial revolution is England. For the discussion of the role of institutions in development see Acemoglu and Robinson (2013) and Acemoglu (2003). 2 Even if China was the most important country in terms of GDP in this period, the steady growth in Western Europe took the countries of this region it far/further from other countries. In the end of the 18th century and the beginning of the 19th century, West Europe began to control the world and the European countries become the most powerful economically with unrivaled military power. The inception of growth was the consequence of the fact that Occident discovered modern science and began to use it methodologically to harness nature, to produce wealth and arms and to organize human activities. Its growing superiority in this respect has allowed colonizing other countries and canalizing their efforts for its self interest. Thus, science has become a powerfull instrument to increase its power and to limit the freedom of others. For some, this undesirable result of science is just a negative externality. The “new organon”,2 which is the modern science, was in a sense the major driver of the industrial revolution3. Even if China was in the beginning of the 19th century the biggest economy with practically half the world GDP (Maddison, …) it began to lag comparatively to England first and then to Germany and France. The new tool, which is the use of science to produce, made possible the use stream engines and many other inventions to decuple the power of the process of production. This is what is known as the first industrial revolution. Germany was the first continental country to understand what is going on. Hard work and science traditions helped Germany to catch up England by the end of the third quarter of the 19th century. One feature of the catch up of Germany was the strong involvement of the State in the process of German industrialization. This pattern will be omnipresent of the industrialization experience of Japan in the end of the same century, of the East Asian countries in the second half of the 20th century, and of China since its openness in 1978. 2 3 This is the title of the famous book of F. Bacon (1620). Maddison say that “… the development of Baconian, Galilean and Newtonian science, systematic experimentation, and the spread of university education and creation of academies of science unleashed a Promethean advance of secular knowledge which was a fundamental prerequisite for later technological development” (Maddison, 2008, p. 77). 3 The Japanese organized their industrialization during the Meiji era. They saw the big picture4 clear in 1868 when an American commander arrived to their coasts and imposed the use of their land for trade. Their strategic diagnostic was clear. The west has a tool they do not have. It had science that is used to produce wealth and guns and the society is organized so as all participate in an open political system. It took for Japanese less than 40 years to harness the new tool and to use it to gain a war against till feudal Russia in 1905. The World War I is the moment of the end of what some call the first episode of globalization (Frieden, 2011). For many alerted observers the supremacy of England was deeply eroded. Many deep transformations occurred in the World. A lasting effects revolution occurred in Russia. The Hapsburg and Ottoman empires disaggregated. In the other side of the Atlantic, the United States of America become the first economic power. An aggressive capitalism, a large and rich geography, a more interest to using scientific knowledge to organize complex and lucrative value chains, a political system that is far from being predatory and no implication in world affairs were the elements that provided to the USA the necessary preconditions to be the leader of the western world at least until the so-called decline of its relative power in the last decades of the 20th century and the first years of the 21 century. In the post WWII era, the world competition was essentially between USA, Europe, and Japan. This was described by the famous Triad concept proposed in the 1980s by K. Ohmae. The scene changed slightly in late 1970s when some East-Asia countries organized their industrialization. South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Singapore became recognized players in world competition. Another major transformation occurred in 1990s when China and a bundle of other countries handled the major ingredients to join the club of world giants. 2. Countries and regions that are driving the world economy 2.1. The continuous vitality of Germany and of the U.S.A. The world competition in the coming years will be characterized by the struggle between ancient and newcomers5 in all activities to develop new 4 No country will succeed if it fails to develop a reliable understanding of the big picture. No strategy will be devised if a country is kidnapped by a predatory elite (the case of almost all Arab countries). 5 Remember that really in a sense the world become flat (Friedman, 200…). 4 technologies, to control the most lucrative segments, to develop strategies to reap the profits from new markets and benefit from the growing revenues in emerging economies. The ancient established players continue to have an advantage in many areas such as, for example, in automotive industry. Indeed, the “Triad OEMs, especially European and Japanese OEMs, have a clear competitive advantage concerning traditional gasoline and diesel based power train technology. There is still enormous efficiency gain potential in this technology and no emerging OEM will be able to rival the triad OEMs in respect to this advantage”6 (ArthurDLittle, 2012, p. 2). K. Ohmae coined the concept triad to condensate the fact that in the 1970s and the 1980s world competition was between three centers: North America, Europe, and Japan. In coming times, and for demographic, political, historical, and even racial reasons Japan will be just a developed area without great impact on the World. Japan lacks the opportunity to be in a dynamic environment with open culture and dynamic migration policy. Contrary to this country the other members of the triad continue to benefit from the advantage of openness and to be the heart of a dynamic space. The reasons explaining this continuous/renewed dynamism of the United States of America and of Germany are the nature of their two capitalisms that are deeply different but equally efficient and their openness to world economy by human, cultural, and financial ties. Most will argue that Germany is less open than the USA. They are right but Germany is very open compared to Japan. German policymakers understand very well the importance of migration and of developing tight ties with other people. 2.2. China and India: the real new world By the end of 2012, the population of China and India was approximately 40% of the world population. Recently, China becomes the second economy in the World. In my opinion, what we will see in the coming 40 to 50 years is the revenge of the demographic factor. As people and the aware elites discover how 6 OEM is the abbreviation of original equipment manufacturers. 5 education and human capital are important they intensify investment in humans7. The first consequence of investment in humans in good managed economies is the regular increase of productivity8. And the final consequence will be a huge increase in the global GDP of countries with huge population such as China and India. By a simple arithmetic operation we, very sooner-30 to 50 years, will found these two countries in the top of the list of countries accordingly to size of their GDP. Our analysis do not take into account any accident that may occur such as a devastating war, an unprecedented epidemic disease, a severe long draught in China, or any other event that we do not even know9. China’s growing contribution in world economy has all the capabilities to be sustainable. “In 2010, China overtook the United States as the World’s largest producer of manufactured goods with market share of 19,8%” (Ahearn, 2011, p. 11). By 2060, the world economy will look much different than we are habituated to see. “Fast growth in China and India will make their combined GDP measured at 2005 purchase power parities (ppps), soon surpass that of G7 economies and exceed that of the entire current OECD membership by 2060” (OECD, 2012, p. 8) 2.3. From the BRICS to a more large group of leading emerging countries The BRICS concept is conceived by the analysts of Goldman Sachs in … to describe the growing importance of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa as drivers of growth in the world economy. This group of countries will play a critical role in the few coming years. “By 2020, the BRICS are expected to account for nearly 50% of all global GDP growth” (Ernest &Young, 2011, p. 4) The new industrialized countries lead the world because their demand increased hugely in the last years. Indeed, the shifting world trade appears especially if we analyze the demand side. The table below gives the rate of 7 Human capital is a determinant of growth if it is accomplished in an economy with adequate institutions (See for a thorough discussion: Acemoglu, 2003, Acemoglu and Robinson, 2011, Easterly, 1997) 8 Many Arab countries invest in humans but with mediocre institutions and non performant management of the economy, and extractive policies devised by predatory elites. 9 This is what Nicholas Taleb (2010) call a black snow in his brilliant book. I think that for someone to be deparadigmatized and be prepared for the future Taleb’s book is really to read. 6 growth of merchandise’ imports over the period 2005-2010 of a sample of countries. That is, the prominent role of a country in the international trade is revealed also proportionally to its purchasing power. Growth’ rate of merchandise’ imports over 2005-2010 USA Growth’ rate 14% European Union Brazil India China South Africa 27% 147% 129 % 111 % 51% Source: (Gereffi and Lee, 2012, p. 28) 2.4. The new comers: Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Indonesia In this group we find, surprisingly, essentially Islamic countries. Apart this feature, this group is rather heterogonous. Because we find countries that are equipped with different institutional setups and at different development stages. Some are considered as in the edge of emergence such as Turkey and Indonesia and other are just struggling to fix the political framework such as Egypt. Some have an ancient open tradition. Others will have great problems to lie down the foundations of inclusive institutions in the sense of Acemoglu and Robinson as discussed in their famous book Why nations fail? (Acemoglu and Robinson, 2012). The important factors that favor these countries are either geography and demography or both. Some countries are good located such as Turkey or Iran. Some have locations in more adverse environment. Some countries have compact populations such as Saudi Arabia, Algeria and other tremendous populations such as Indonesia and Nigeria. For each country there are weaknesses and many factors that are in their advantage. For Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Iran I think that the most important impediment to development and emergence is establishing down the foundations of inclusive institutions (Acemoglu, 2003, Acemoglu and Robinson, 2012 ). Turkey and Indonesia are much more near the breaking point to achieve the transition to a stage characterized by more prosperity, more contribution in the world economy with tremendous benefits for their inhabitants. 3. The most active industries/sectors 7 Many criteria may be used to identify a set of key sectors that are or will be the most active in the future. Three criteria will be privileged. The first is the rate of growth of a given sector. The second is the share of the sector or branch in the world economy or world trade. A third criterion is the structuring effect of a sector. Some sectors that are of small business importance are very important because they guide world innovation and their impact is more important comparatively to the level of their activities. First of all we have to identify the playing forces that are shaping the productive sectors. In my opinion, three forces must be highlighted. The first is the widespread use of ICT in all activities10. Information and communication technologies are structuring and determining the features and patterns of all productive sectors. The networks that emerged, with Internet at the core, are a fundamental fact that will deeply affects the process of wealth creation (Dizard, 1997). The second factor is identified by T. L. Friedman in his best seller “The World is flat” (Friedman, 2006). T. Friedman remarked that the actual globalization is characterized by the transformation of the world competition so as the traditional division of labor is rapidly out passed. Consequently, newcomers are competing with old ones in the most complex activities of the supply chain. We can push further Friedman’s analysis to conclude that, apart in some region of the world11, all players become aware of what is going on and what is necessary for them to compete in the world economy. The third factor is the globalization of supply chains. That is the process of value added creation is conceived, coordinated, optimized, an executed taking all the possibilities worldwide (Berger, 2006, Gereffi and Lee, 2012). This evolution implies running operations and flows across different countries and locations. This trend is facilitated by low transport and communication costs. The globalization of the supply chain is documented by many scholars. The global value chain or the equivalent global supply chain becomes a centerpiece 10 The importance of ICT is a new phase of the phenomenon of increasing use of knowledge in economic process in the stages of design, production, and marketing. 11 The Arab world is lagging behind all other regions. Arab elites devised the system so as to be superpredators. Complex geostrategic factors contribute in this. In the Arab world we have simply a strategic vacuum used by others for their interest. 8 in the literature (Gereffi and Lee, 2012). The importance of this globalization appears clearly if we scrutinize the importance of intermediate goods traded across borders and the growing part of imported items in the process of production of items to be exported. “In 2009, world exports of intermediate goods exceeded the combined exports value of final and capital goods, representing 51 percent of nonfuel merchandise exports” (Gereffi and Lee, 2012, p. 25). The fourth factor is much linked to the third. It is related to the unprecedented level of complexity of reality (Homer-Dixon, 2011). Indeed, our world is structured as networks that are constituted of many elements in continuous changing interactions. The complexity characterizes socio-economic sphere, the geographic, natural, and climatic sphere, and the technological sphere. The consequence is non-linearity of these networks which makes them unpredictable (Homer-Dixon, 2011 and Ohmae, 1996). As a corollary of the non-linearity of economic, political, and social landscape it is impossible to forecast the impact of a change and more importantly the location of the apparition of its future impact12. The consequences of these evolutions on productive sectors are difficult to disentangle. In the long run, we do observed a decline of agriculture and manufacturing in world GDP. So the share of services sector increased from 52% in 1970 to 68% in 2005. The part of agriculture decreased from 10% in 1970 to 3.6% in 2005. The contribution of manufacturing fell from 38% to 29% in the same period (Memedovic, 2010, p. 6). Since 2005, we observed a reversal of this trend. If we believe in the very long run trends, it is very likely that in the future the relative contribution of services sector continued to rise in the world GDP and in the GDP of each country13. The global trend in aggregate sectors is totally misleading to devise an industrial strategy. A more detailed analysis must be undertaken to detect lasting transformations and relevant knowledge. The data about the average structure of 12 For K. Ohmae the current competition landscape is totally different comparatively to the mechanical pre-1970s world. He observed that one manifestation of non-linearity is loosening of links between demand, supply, and jobs creation (Ohmae, 1996). 13 We can also assert this if we take account of the fact that “North America is the only region where tertiarization has continued throughout the whole period, with services’ value added share rising from 63 to 76 percent between 1970 and 2008”. (Memedovic, 2010, p. 6) 9 manufacturing sector in 30 countries in 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2006 reveals some transformations in sectors that their share in total manufacturing. The shares of four subsectors significantly increased. These sub-sectors are “chemicals and chemical products”, “Machinery and equipment n.e.c +office, accounting and computing machinery”, “Electrical machinery and apparatus +radio television and communication equipment”, and “Medical, precision and optical instruments” (Memedovic, 2010, table 1, p. 13). I am convinced that even this second level is totally misleading because the imperative to master a segment of the value chain necessitates to analyze subsubsectors (I really write subsubsectors) for which the countries have the necessary skills. 4. The emergent technologies Since the 16th century the technologies that dominated the productive sectors underwent continuous change leading to emergence of new efficient technologies. J. Schumpeter (1936) termed the process of decline of old technologies and the consequent emergence of new ones “creative destruction”. In the beginning of the 1990s, P. Aghion and P Howitt constructed an analytical model to endogenously explain growth by the continuous process of innovation. Understanding the set of technologies or innovations that are driving productive sectors is at the top of the work of policymakers in all countries that seek to have a place in the world economy. The table below summarizes the major technological transformations since the inception of industrial revolution in the 16th century. New technologies will be conceived, developed, and commercialized to face the major following problems. The first is to strengthen, facilitate, robustify, secure, and generalize the use of IT technologies in production, coordination, learning, entertainment, and all human activities. The second driving force in shaping and determining the emerging industries is to have faster treatment of information, more connectivity between agents, computers, persons, organizations, and more intelligence embedded in objects such as phones, medical items, shoes, and other daily used objects (Gallaire, 1998). 10 Table: Synoptic characteristics of the eras since the beginning of industrial revolution Technology/ Sources of Major sciences Imperative industry energy th Steam enginessteel Coal PhysicsMastering nature 18 century to th thermodynamics the mid of 19 century technology- Coal-oil Electricity, Producing new From the mid of Steel th railway networks, Iron chemical science products the 19 to the beginning of Electricity telephony, th 20 century automobile Oil Social sciences- Organizing From the 1920s The industry, Radio, Quanta physics production to the beginning Aviation of WW II Oil Electronics Mass production for From 1945 to ElectronicsTelevisionCybernetics mass consumption 1974 refrigerator, semiconductors From 1974 to Aero-technologic the end of innovations computer science Oil Computer Science Efficient use of Robotics-biology energy- Conquering spaceMastering information flows Computer science- Reducing the cost of telecomunicationsinformation Nanotechnology treatment 1980s From the end of 1980s to the end of the1990s From the end of the 1990s to now Mobile phonesOil Internet- data transfer technology ICTAlternatives Oil- Biofuels- Networks science, Connectivitytechnologies to Solar energy biotechnology treating big data produce energy- Big data analysis Sources: Author’ compilation from various sources A third determinant of the most promising technologies is the growing ecological concerns. It appears that nature’s protection is not only public but also superior good. That is, the people’s awareness of the importance of this good (nature’s protection) increases with the income of a country or a person. Furthermore, the available evidence such as about the warming of climate, the necessity to increase water use efficiency, the importance of natural diversity for the quality of human beings are the drivers of the development of whole industries. For Jeremy Rifkin the concerns about ecology, the emergence of an alternative source of energy, and the nature and of ICT will converge to lay down the base/infrastructure of the third industrial revolution (Rifkin, 2011). In coming years the industry if air transport and tourism will be one of the key industries. The reason behind this is the growing number of a medium class in the world that uses a more important share of its income for travelling and 11 entertainment. Asia will be the most important source of tourists. More than 500 million of persons will join the middle class in India and China. 5. Strategies for the future We live in a world characterized by a worldwide eager competition, interdependency between all actors, the rapid transformation of technology, the arriving of new competitors, the emergence of new challenges such as climate change. Policymakers have to develop a deep understanding of the new landscape to devise policies commensurable with the new challenges. I always considered what is usable in many situations as more important than what is very important in just one situation. What have multi-uses is much more productive and valuable and its value decreases slowly. In the same manner, in any country investment must be directed to acquire competences, knowledge, assets that are multi-usable. The history taught us that countries, people, species, civilizations that pushed the improvement of something to the maximum reduced the probability that they readapt to an abrupt bifurcation of history. In his famous book “The Black Snow”, N. Taleb (2010) explained how rare and highly consequential events shape the evolution of social, technological, and natural systems. Furthermore, he proved that these events are simply impossible to forecast. For this reason, the best strategy is to robustify a system against their unavoidable occurrence. That means that infrastructures such as the banking system, the ecological system, the political system, the network of national producing firms, the national system of telecommunications must continue to function and provide critical services even if they are hited by an unpredictable and highly disastrous event. In his “the Global next stage; challenges and opportunities in our borderless world”, K. Ohmae remarked that “the economic, political, social, corportate, and personal rules that now apply bear scant relation to those applicable two decades ago” (2005, p. xv). This new landscape requires creative and unusual responses. The use of “platforms for progress” will be necessary to perform will in this competition (Ohmae, 2005). Furthermore, K. Ohmae asserted that if we agree with the idea that “the global economy is powered by technology, then knowledge is its precious metal” (Ohmae, 2005, p. xxiv). 12 Uncertainty about an event is a major concern when this event will have dramatic consequences that command the survival or the position of a country, a corporation, a person in any hierarchy. One method to develop a big picture about the evolution of the future is to ask critic, free minded, and responsible persons-perhaps from outside the country or the corporation- of their prospects concerning the future. By this method more fragments of relevant information are taken into account. Recall the fact that knowledge which is the base of action is information viewed from particular perspective. That is information transformed into knowledge and then into strategy. Human were habituated to use established rules to react to the challenge of their environment. These attitudes were rational because the functioning of their environment was stable and the constitution of routines, established rules, pre-determined strategies provide really a tool to handle the problems faced by individuals, agents, corporations, and governments. In the new changing landscapes it is an imperative to deparadigmatize decisions makers so as to prepare them for a world with new rules, new problems, and fast changing problems. One salient feature that emerge from the analysis of the history of the world economy and its changing centre of gravity is the prominent role that some localities/places, organized as cities, played (Attali, 2006, Ezzahid 2003, Maddisson, 2008). This remark is especially relevant in our times where some cities concentrate the most innovative activities (Florida, 2005). This can be explained by the role of cities as adequate areas of emergence of new inventions, new innovations, new ideas, new connections, unexpected synergies and so on (Ezzahid, 2003). For all countries, it is important to develop innovative areas or “innovative ecosystems” that are highly conducive to the creative activities, to innovation, and to learning14.These innovative ecosystems must be appropriate places to work in for engineers, financiers, scientists, designers, writers, journalists, very skilled and educated workers, and all other creative agents. R. Florida reported that in the world concentration the most extreme is the concentration of the most cited scientists (Florida, 2005, p. 50). This prove the informational nature of the current capitalisms founded on very skilful people with complex, fluid, and robust enabling infrastructures such as universities, laboratories, human networks, scientific communities that make possible the emergence of new knowledge. 14 It is a term from (Florida, 2005). 13 6. Concluding remarks Any player in the emerging world must be aware of the building blocks, major trends, and main shifts of the big picture of the strategic landscape that he or she confronts. To succeed in the new competition, each player must understand the strategic landscape and the goals, strategies, and macro-tactics15 of other players. A deep understanding of the sources of economic, intellectual, technological, human, social, and institutional competition/performance/power is of prime importance. The economic and geostrategic transformations will have unpredictable consequences on international affairs (Dadush and Stancil, 2010). Only the good prepared and fully aware players will be able to cope with the complexities and the adversities of the new competition. For the good prepared new comers the world is really flat (Friedman, 2006). For the badly prepared the world is spiky (Florida, 2005). Preparedness depends on available human capital, the nature of institutions, the availability and robustness of institutions, and the accuracy of policies. One sine qua non condition for success in the new world competition arena is the awareness of each player of the big picture with a sufficient knowledge of the sources of power, the emergent strategic technologies, the most important countries/regions that will pull/push the world economy. Those that lost the big picture will lag behind and be trivial players. That means they will be marginal, usable in the strategies of others, poor, and finally kicked out of history. References Acemoglu, D., and Robinson, J.A., (2013), Why nations fail? The origins of power, prosperity and poverty, Profile Books Acemoglu, D., (2003), Root causes: a historical approach to assessing the role of institutions in economic development, Finance and Development, June, pp. 27-30 Aghion, P. and Howitt, P., (1990), “A model of growth through creative destruction”, NBER Working Paper #3223 Ahearn, R. J., (2011), Rising economic powers and the global economy: trends and issues for congress, CRS report for Congress, August 15 A macro-tactic is a set of actions compacted to produce an effect in a limited space or time. A macro-tactic is more than a tactic (very effect’s localized action) and less than a strategy. 14 ArtherDLittle, (2012), Shifting centers of gravity, the end of the Automotive industry as we know it?, Url :www.adt.com/shiftinggravity Attali, J., (….), Sept leçons de vie : survivre aux crises, Fayard Attali, J., (2006), Une brève histoire de l’avenir, Fayard Bacon, F. (1620), The new organon or true directions concerning the interpretation of nature, http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/b/bacon/francis/organon/preface.html Berger, S., (2006), Made in monde, les nouvelles frontières de l’économie mondiale, Nouveaux horizons Dadush, U. and Stancil, B. (2010), The world order in 2050, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April Dizard, W., Jr., (1997), Meganet: how the global communications network will connect everyone on earth, WestviewPress, Harper Collins Publishers Easterly, W., Ernest and Young, (2011), Tracking global trends, how six keys developments are shaping the business World Ezzahid, E., (2003), Macro-textures des systèmes productifs locaux, Revue Marocaine d’Economie et de Droit, No. 6, Url : http://www.fsjes.um5a.ac.ma/pdfFiles/articles/Agglomeration%20externalite%20et%20macrotexture-ezzahid.pdf Florida, R., (2005), The world is spiky, Atlantic Monthly, October, pp.48-51 Fung, V. K., Fung, W. K., and Wind, Y. J., (2008), Competing in a flat world: building Enterprises for a borderless World, Pearson Education, Inc. Gallaire, H., (1998), Rapidité, connexion, intelligence : toujours plus, in OCDE, (1998), Les technologies du XXIème siècle, Processus et périls d’un futur dynamique, Gereffi, G. and Lee, J., (2012), Why the world suddenly cares about global supply chains, Journal of supply chain management, vol. 48, Nu. 3, pp. Gershenfeld, N., (1999), When things start to think, OWL Books Frieden, J. A., (2011), The modern capitalist world economy: a historical overview, http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/jfrieden/files/modern_capitalist_economy__page_proofs .pdf (consulted january 1st 2014) Friedman, T. L., (2006), The World is flat, the globalized world in the twenty-first century, Pearson, Penguin Books Homer-dixon, T., (2011), “Complexity science”, Oxford leadership Journal, Vol. 2, Issue 1, pp. Maddison, A., (2008), The West and the Rest in the World Economy: 1000–2030 Maddisonian and Malthusian interpretations, World Economics, Vol. 9, No. 4, October–December, pp. 75-99 McKinsey Global Institute, (2013), Disruptive technologies: advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy, Mai 15 Malik, Y., Niemeyer, A., and Ruwadi, B. (2011), Building the supply chain of the future, in Mckinsey and company McKinsey on supply chain: selected publications, January Memedovic, O., (2010), Structural change in the World economy: Main features and trends, United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Working paper 24/2009 OECD, (2012), Looking to 2060: long-term global growth prospects, OECD economic policy papers, No. 03, November Ohmae, K., (2005), The next global stage; challenges and opportunities in our borderless world, Pearson education, Inc. Ohmae, K., (1996), The Mapmaker, in Taylor, W. C., and Webber, A. M., (1996), Going global, Viking, Penguin Books Rifkin, J., (2011), La troisième révolution industrielle, comment le pouvoir latéral va transformer l’énergie, l’économie et le monde, Babel Powers, W. M., (2012), The value of value added: Measuring global engagement with cross and value –added trade, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics Working paper, November Schaumpeter, J., (1934), The Theory of Economic Development, New York Oxford University Press Shangquan, G., (2000), Economic globalization: trends, risks and risk prevention, United Nations Economic and Social Affairs, CDP Background paper No. A Strategic Foresight Initiative, (2011), Global interdependencies, August Storlie, C., (2011), Managing and leading in the midst of uncertainty: lessons from the military, Oxford Leadership Journal, Vol. 2, Issue 1, january Taleb, N. N., (2010), The Black Snow, the impact of the highly improbable, Penguin Books World Economic Forum, (2012), The shifting geography of global value chains: implications for developing countries and trade policy 16