Energy Market Report - EDF Group for European Customers

Transcription

Energy Market Report
February 4, 2013 Week 6
COMMODITIES
Highlights
International commodities were quite affected by the
weakening Dollar over the course of last week: oil was up more
than 3.50$/b and coal 0,25$/t. For the more local commodities,
gas was down on milder weather conditions and power on
comfortable production figures and lowered fuel costs on the
curve. The only rebound came from the emissions, after news
that German renewable schemes would get stricter, moving
emissions away from the 3€/t area for some time.
Week 04 VS Week 05
SPOT
ELECTRICITY
−
SPOT
GAS
−
SPOT
CO2
−
SPOT
OIL
+
SPOT
COAL
Overview
Highlights
European Power Spot Prices
European Power Forward Prices
European Gas Prices
Carbon Market Prices
Oil Market Prices
Coal Market Prices
Weather Overview
Exchange Rates
Indices Overview
p.1
p.2
p.3
p.5
p.6
p.7
p.8
p.9
p.10
p.11
+
OBSERVED
WEATHER
+
SPOT EUR/GBP
EXCHANGE RATE
+
SPOT EUR/USD
+
-1-
V.U./E.R. : Grégoire Peeters Rue du Marquis 1  1000 Bruxelles
Luminus est une marque et un nom commercial de EDF Luminus Rue du Marquis 1 1000 Bruxelles TVA-BE-0471.811.661 RPM Bruxelles
Luminus is een merk en handelsnaam van EDF Luminus Markiesstraat 1 1000 Brussel BTW-BE-0471.811.661 RPR Brussel
European Power Spot Prices
Spot prices significantly dropped compared to last
week most certainly inspired by the mild
temperature conditions.
Belpex Settlement last 2 weeks
€/MWh
Quote Week 04 Quote Week 05
Base
56.91
48.36
Off-peak 8-20h
50.68
42.88
Peak 8-20h
68.13
58.23
Belpex DAH Power Hourly Prices
Week 04 2013
Belpex Monthly Average Prices
70
Week 05 2013
94
2013
50
€/MWh
84
€/MWh
2012
60
104
74
64
54
40
30
20
44
10
34
24
Mon
Delta
-15.03%
-15.40%
-14.54%
0
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Sun
History of Baseload Weekly Average on DAH Prices
Belpex
Apx
Powernext
Eex
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
€/MWh
55
45
35
25
15
5
-5
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
3 Months History of Weekly Average Spread BE-FR&BE-NL on DAH Prices
Belpex-Powernext
Belpex-Apx
20
15
€/MWh
10
5
0
-5
-10
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
V.U./E.R. : Grégoire Peeters Rue du Marquis 1  1000 Bruxelles
-2-
Belgium Overview
Curve prices were again down last week, partly
driven by weakening fuel prices affecting
marginal costs and partly driven by the bearish
move on the spot markets. However, the
rebound on emissions after Angela Merkel's
speech pushed German Cal14 back to 41€/MWh
area against its low at 40.37€/MWh on
Thursday. In Belgium some bullish news came
from Electrabel's announcement that further
tests would be conducted on Doel3 and Tihange
2, postponing the estimated recommissioning to
March.
Endex Base BE : Average Quotes last 2 weeks
€/MWh
Feb-2013
Mar-2013
Apr-2013
Q2-2013
Q3-2013
Q4-2013
Q1-2014
Cal-2014
Cal-2015
Cal-2016
Quote Week 04
Quote Week 05
53.86
47.85
43.53
40.54
39.33
50.47
51.12
44.36
44.49
45.50
53.27
47.23
43.37
40.22
39.08
50.07
50.50
43.88
43.79
44.69
Delta
-1.09%
-1.30%
-0.36%
-0.78%
-0.62%
-0.79%
-1.22%
-1.10%
-1.58%
-1.78%
History of Endex BE Power Base Y+1
2013
2012
Jun
Jul
2011
60
€/MWh
55
50
45
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Aug
Sep
Oct
Oct-12
Nov-12
Nov
Dec
History of Endex Power BE Yearly Futures
Cal 2014
Cal 2015
Cal 2016
54
€/MWh
52
50
48
46
44
42
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
-3V.U./E.R. : Grégoire Peeters Rue du Marquis 1  1000 Bruxelles
BENEDEFR Overview
History of Neighboring Countries Baseload Power Y+1
Endex Belgium
Endex Holland
Platts Germany
EEX France
€/MWh
55
50
45
40
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
3 Months History of Baseload Power Spread BE-FR & BE-NL Y+1
Endex BE-EEX FR
Endex BE-Endex NL
4
€/MWh
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
European Gas Prices
Mild weather conditions pushed NWE gas prices strongly
down over the course of last week, mainly on the spot
market, but also on the curve. However, because Asian
markets continue to price high on LNG cargoes and the
Troll platform unavailibility limits Norwegian flows by
around 30m³/day, the drop was limited on the curve,
which was already quite low against historical levels.
Gas Zeebrugge : Average Quotes last 2 weeks
€/MWh
Feb-2013
26.21
25.87
Mar-2013
25.97
25.89
Apr-2013
25.66
25.69
Q2-2013
25.55
25.48
Q3-2013
25.45
25.39
Q4-2013
27.32
27.03
Q1-2014
28.54
28.08
Q2-2014
26.13
26.00
Q3-2014
26.13
26.00
Cal-2014
27.14
26.87
History of Zig Monthly Average
History of ZIG DAH Prices
30
2012
29
28
25
27
20
€/MWh
€/MWh
Delta
-1.31%
-0.32%
0.13%
-0.26%
-0.21%
-1.07%
-1.61%
-0.51%
-0.51%
-1.00%
26
25
2013
15
10
24
5
23
22
Mar-12
0
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
History of NBP, Zeebrugge, TTF Y +1
NBP
Zeebrugge
3 Months History of Spread Y+1
TTF
NBP-ZEE
29
TTF-ZEE
0.2
0.1
0.0
28
€/MWh
€/MWh
-0.1
27
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
26
-0.5
-0.6
25
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
-0.7
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Carbon Market Prices
The downward trend in carbon prices continued last
week. The Dec/13 contract traded below 4€/t most of
the week. Only on Friday a rebound in prices was seen
after the support of German Chancellor Angela Merkel to
the German Environment Minister’s plan to cap renewable
subsidies to limit the rise in power prices for consumers.
The Dec/13 contract ended the week at 4.34€/t.
CO2 EUA : Average Quotes last 2 weeks
€/t
Cal-2013
4.73
3.94
Cal-2014
4.96
4.15
Cal-2015
5.19
4.32
Cal-2016
5.45
4.55
delta
-16.72%
-16.30%
-16.70%
-16.59%
History of Point Carbon CO2 EUA Emission Yearly Futures
Cal 2013
Cal 2014
11.0
€/t
9.0
7.0
5.0
3.0
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
3 Months History of Spread EUA-CER in 2013
7.5
€/t
6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Oil Market Prices
The weakening Dollar was a major
driver of oil prices last week, since
globally, most news should have
pushed prices somewhat down: EIA oil
stocks at their highest levels and
OPEC production compressed to its
lowest output (mainly coming from an
increased effort on Saudi Arabia). But
indeed, oil prices started gaining
some premium coming from tighter
gasoline conditions in the US and
upcoming sanctions on Iranian oil
exports.
HFO : Average Quotes last 2 weeks
GOL 0.1% s : Average Quotes last 2 weeks
$/t
Cal-14
Cal-15
Delta
909.81 1.28%
891.30 0.96%
898.31
882.85
Brent : Average Quotes last 2 weeks
$/BBL
Cal-14
Cal-15
Cal-16
Delta
104.66 1.47%
99.08 0.73%
94.96 0.32%
103.13
98.36
94.65
$/t
Feb-2013
646.90
652.25
Mar-2013
646.65
656.90
Apr-2013
646.50
656.30
May-2013
645.55
655.60
Q2-2013
645.45
655.25
Q3-2013
640.80
650.95
Q4-2013
631.85
642.75
Q1-2014
627.30
635.95
Cal-2014
620.95
626.70
Delta
0.83%
1.59%
1.52%
1.56%
1.52%
1.58%
1.73%
1.38%
0.93%
History of Settlement Oil Products Prices (Platts)
HFO
GOL 0.1% S
1050
$/t
950
850
750
650
550
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
History of Brent First Nearby Month Forward prices
130
125
120
$\bbl
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Coal Market Prices
Coal : Average Quotes last 2 weeks
Spot coal prices were strongly affected last week
from quite a few loadings being notified Force
Majeure in Australian ports due to severe weather
conditions. But since globally, ARA and Chinese stock
levels have significantly increased over the week, the
bullish move was limited. Globally, markets signals
still carry some clear indication that supply is
structurally abundant, meaning that a large part of
the coal rise over last week came from the
weakening Dollar, as for oil.
$/t
Jan-2013
Feb-2013
Q1-2013
Q2-2013
Q3-2013
Q4-2013
Q1-2014
Cal-2013
Cal-2014
Cal-2015
Quote Week 04
Quote Week 05
86.20
86.82
86.97
89.69
91.75
94.27
96.64
90.67
99.16
105.89
86.20
86.82
87.70
90.58
92.68
95.20
97.59
91.95
100.35
106.94
Delta
0.00%
0.00%
0.84%
0.99%
1.01%
0.99%
0.98%
1.41%
1.20%
0.99%
History of Settlement Weekly Index (Argus McCloskey )
110
105
$/t
100
95
90
85
80
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
History of Coal Yearly Futures
Cal 2014
Cal 2015
130
125
$/t
120
115
110
105
100
95
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Weather Overview
Temperatures are expected to fall from 3C to 5C
below average by Days 6 to 10 in a cold Northwesterly airflow. Then they will rise to between 1C
and 3C below average for Days 11 to 15 as low
pressure becomes dominant in the North Atlantic and
introduces
a
more
South-westerly
airflow.
Precipitation totals are expected to be generally
around average within the short term. Winds are
expected to be around 30km/h at first, with a high
probability of high power generation, but fall to
around 10km/h by midweek.
Weather overview
Week 04
Cloud Coverage Level
Temperature °c
Windspeed
m/s
Week 05
5.00
-2.20
6.60
5.00
6.80
11.10
Delta
0.00
9.00
4.50
Hourly Average Temperature
Observed Week 04
Observed Week 05
Avg week 06 (2010-2012)
Forecast Week 6
Degrees Celsius
10
5
0
-5
-10
00:00
06:00
12:00
18:00
Hourly Average Observed Wind Speed
Hourly Average Observed Cloud Coverage
Week 04
Week 05
Week 05
8
14
7
12
6
m/s
0 = No cloud - 8 = Fully Cloud
Week 04
5
10
8
4
3
6
2
00:00
4
00:00
06:00
12:00
18:00
06:00
12:00
18:00
Exchange Rates
EUR/USD continued to rally and shows no signs of
stalling. This situation is rather supported by a
weak USD story rather than a strong EUR story. US
FOMC statement of last week tended to paint
weak Q4-12 growth as distorted by weather and
transitory factors, the Fed still got across its core
message that aggressive QE remains in place and
it is prepared to do more if the unemployment
rate does not fall quickly enough. Treasury yields
edged lower on the news and the prospect for
US$85bn per month of Fed QE for the first half of
the year should keep the dollar soft.
Exchange Rates : Average Quotes last 2 weeks
Week 04
EUR/GBP
EUR/USD
Week 05
Delta
0.8570 1.67%
1.3522 1.23%
0.8429
1.3358
History of Settlement EUR/GBP-EUR/USD Exchange Rates
EUR/GBP
EUR/USD
0.90
1.45
€/£
1.35
0.80
1.30
0.75
0.70
Feb-12
€/$
1.40
0.85
1.25
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
1.20
Feb-13
Focus on Last 3 Weeks Settlement FX
EUR/GBP
EUR/USD
1.370
0.895
1.360
1.350
0.855
1.340
1.330
0.835
1.320
0.815
0.795
14/01/2013
1.310
1.300
21/01/2013
28/01/2013
- 10 V.U./E.R. : Grégoire Peeters Rue du Marquis 1  1000 Bruxelles
€/$
€/£
0.875
Indices Overview
Electricity
Endex based Indices: settlements
Luminus Electricity Indices: settlements
EMarketCWE
58
Endex 123
Endex 126
Endex 121212
Endex 303
Endex 12012
70
57
56
65
55
60
54
53
55
52
50
51
50
45
49
48
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13
40
Oct-11
Feb-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-13
Oct-13
Gas
Luminus Gas Indices :settlements
Luminus Gas Indices: settlements
€ / MWh
Gcomfort
Gproxy
Igm
Gcomfort II
42
2.0
41
1.9
40
1.8
39
1.7
38
1.6
37
1.5
36
1.4
35
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
1.3
Oct-11
Jan-13
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Gas ZB based settlements
Zee100
GmarketCWE
30
28
26
24
22
20
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
Inflation
Inflation based indices: settlements
Ne
Igd
1.85
1.80
1.75
1.70
1.65
1.60
1.55
1.50
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Glossary Overview
API
APX
Belpex
Brent
CER
COAL API#2
DAH
EEX
Endex
EUA
GOL 0.1%s
HFO
ICE
NBP
Powernext
Spark Spread
TTF
ZEE
ZIG
American Petroleum Institute
Amsterdam Power Exchange (Dutch Spot market)
Belgian Power Exchange (Belgian Spot market)
North Sea oil benchmark
Certified Emission Reductions (CO2 Certificates)
Coal delivered CIF (cost, Insurance and Freight) in the area of ARA (Antwerp, Rotterdam, Amsterdam) NAR (Net as Received)
and on the basis of coal 25.121 GJ / MT
Day ahead
European Energy Exchange (German Spot market)
European Energy Derivatives Exchange (Belgian-Dutch gas and power Futures market)
European Union Allowances (CO2 Certificates)
Gasoil 0.1% Sulphur
Heavy Fuel Oil
Intercontinental Exchange (energy trading)
UK gas market (National Balancing Point)
French Power Exchange (French Spot market)
Spark spreads represent the generating margin of gas-fired power stations. Standard spark spreads are
calculated from the difference between power prices and gas prices, adjusted for fuel efficiency. The clean spark
spread however takes also into account the cost of carbon dioxide emission allowances.
Title Transfer Facility (Dutch market for gas trading)
Zeebrugge (Natural gas trading point in Belgium)
Zeebrugge Index for natural Gas (Belgian Spot market)
Sources
FameEnergy
Spectron Business Solutions
MeteoServices NV
The Mccloskey Group
European Climate Exchange
Commission de Régulation de l’Electricité et du Gaz
Commission Wallonne pour l’Energie
Vlaamse Reguleringsinstantie voor de Electriciteits- en de Gasmarkt
Federal Planning Brureau: Economic Analyses & Forecasts
Belpex SA
European Energy Exchange AG
Endex European Energy Derivatives Exchange NV
Powernext SA
UBS
PointCarbon
APX NV
Disclaimer
The information contained in this Energy Market Report is for general guidance on matters of interest only.
While we have made every attempt to ensure that the information contained in this report has been obtained from reliable
sources, EDF Luminus shall not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this
information. All information in this report is provided "as is", with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the
results obtained from the use of this information, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including, but not limited
to warranties of performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will EDF Luminus , its related
partnerships or corporations, or the partners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made
or action taken in reliance on the information in this report or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised
of the possibility of such damages.
Certain information contained in this report may be obtained from third parties over whom EDF Luminus has no control. It is
explicitly emphasized that EDF Luminus makes no representations as to the accuracy or any other aspect of information derived
from those sources.

Energy Market Report - EDF Group for European Customers

Transcription

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