Energy, climate and prosperity
Transcription
Energy, climate and prosperity
Energy, climate and prosperity Gaël Giraud Chief economist | AFD Senior researcher | CNRS Professor | ENPC Director | Chair Energy and Prosperity I. CLIMATE : it’s serious! Anthropogenic origin of climate change is now well understood (IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch) (NASA GISS Janvier 2014) 4 Business as usual leads to + 5°C. Too late for <+2°C. GIEC 2013 5 Climate Change Vulnerability Index 10 Adaptation capability Source : GAIN Index / readiness map 11 Abondance des poissons Atlantique nord en 1900 Une mer sans poissons en 2050? (Philippe Cury, Calmann-Lévy, 2008) Abondance des poissons Atlantique nord en 2000 Christensen et al. (Fish & Fisheries, 2003) II. The Energy shift World consumption of primary energy since 1850 Consommation mondiale d’énergie primaire depuis 1850 Mtep 14 Why should we focus on the link growth/energy? • Kaya’s equation: • World average 1965 - 1981: 2.38% = 1.6% + 0.78% • World average 1981 - 2013: 1.86% = 0.5% + 1.36% • Japan 2000 - 2012: 0% = 0% + 0% Decoupling? 22 janvier 2013 Réunion coordination climat - Pilotage des indicateurs climat 17 GDP elasticity wrt Primary Energy? Around 60%... Decoupling? (II) 22 janvier 2013 Réunion coordination climat - Pilotage des indicateurs climat 20 Peak oil? Soon? World Oil production, mb/d 100 2012 Historical URR 2100 Gb URR 2500 Gb URR 3000 Gb URR 3500 Gb 75 50 25 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 0 Les autres énergies fossiles suivront avec quelques décennies de retard Source : Carbone 4 From Historical IEA, AIE, E&L, BP ; prospective The Shift Project with Hubbert extrapolation 23 III. Coping with the possibility of a collapse (1) Meadows (1972) has not been defeated (cf. Turner 2014) A ce jour les projections faites dans les années 70 se confirment Pollution Ressources Population Industrial Output Food Meadows and the Energy shift Industrial Output Food Population Resources Pollution Trop de volatilité tue les prix. 31 III. The Macro-economic “New Normal” Growth = employment ? 44 IV. Coping with the possibility of a collapse GEMMES General Monetary Macro-dynamics for the Ecological Shift ⌅ Macroeconomic Model for Climate Change Climate module overview Temperature Change Real Output Radiative Forcing CO2 Emissions CO2 Accumulation Figure: Diagram of the Economy-Climate interactions. 40/99 ⌅ Macroeconomic Model for Climate Change CO2 Accumulation Three-Layer Model of CO2 Accumulation CO2 Emissions Layer AT Radiative Forcing Atmosphere Layer UP Biosphere Upper part of the oceans Layer AT Lower part of the oceans Figure: Diagram of the CO2 accumulation model. 44/99 ⌅ Numerical Simulations The Business-As-Usual Scenario Debt to Nominal GDP Ratio 1,62 1,53 1,44 1,35 0,54 0,57 0,6 Wage Share 0,63 0,74 1,26 0,68 0,7 0,72 Employment Rate Figure: Trajectories of the main simulation outputs in the Business-as-usual case. 61/99 ⌅ Numerical Simulations The Business-As-Usual Scenario 1,0 0,05 0,8 0,04 0,6 0,03 0,4 0,02 0,2 0,01 2,0 0,05 1,5 0,03 1,0 0,01 0,0 2000 70 000 Employment Rate 2050 2100 -0,02 2200 2250 0,00 -0,04 2300 2000 21 50 000 16 40 000 30 000 11 20 000 6 10 000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 Real Output in $ 2010 Emissions per Capita in tCO2 (right axis) 1 2300 0,5 Labor Productivity Growth Population Growth Inflation Rate (right axis) 2150 60 000 0 2000 Real Ouput Growth 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 Debt to Nominal GDP Ratio (right axis) 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 0,0 2300 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 Atmospheric Temperature Change in °C Damage to Real Output Ratio (right axis) 0,0 2300 Figure: Trajectories of the main simulation outputs in the Business-as-usual case. 59/99 ⌅ Numerical Simulations The Burke et al. (2015) Scenario 1,0 0,05 0,8 0,04 5,0 0,05 4,0 0,03 0,6 0,03 0,4 0,02 0,2 0,01 3,0 2,0 0,01 0,0 2000 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 Employment Rate 2050 2100 Real Ouput Growth -0,02 2200 0,00 -0,04 2300 2000 8 7 2250 Debt to Nominal GDP Ratio (right axis) 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 -1,0 2300 1,0 7 6 6 5 5 4 0,6 4 3 0,4 3 2 2 1 1 2300 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 Real Output in $ 2010 Emissions per Capita in tCO2 (right axis) 0,0 Population Growth Inflation Rate (right axis) 2150 1,0 Labor Productivity Growth 0 2000 0,8 0,2 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 Atmospheric Temperature Change in °C Damage to Real Output Ratio (right axis) 0,0 2300 Figure: Trajectories of the main simulation outputs in the Burke et al. (2015) case. 67/99 ⌅ Macroeconomic Model for Climate Change Damage Function (2/2) 1,0 Damages (fraction of output) 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 0 1 2 3 4 Temperature increase (°C) Nordhaus Weitzman 5 6 Dietz and Stern Figure: Comparison of the proposed Damage functions as percentage of output. 52/99 ⌅ Numerical Simulations The Dietz-Stern Scenario 1,0 0,05 0,8 0,03 0,01 0,05 6,0 0,03 0,6 -0,01 0,01 0,4 -0,02 0,2 0,0 2000 500 -0,05 Employment Rate 2050 Labor Productivity Growth Population Growth Inflation Rate (right axis) -0,07 -0,04 2150 2000 2100 1,0 Real Ouput Growth -0,03 Debt to Nominal GDP Ratio (right axis) 2050 2100 7 16 400 -4,0 2150 1,0 6 0,8 5 300 11 200 6 100 0 2000 4 0,6 3 0,4 2 0,2 1 1 2150 2050 2100 Real Output in $ 2010 Emissions per Capita in tCO2 (right axis) 0 2000 2050 2100 Atmospheric Temperature Change in °C Damage to Real Output Ratio (right axis) 0,0 2150 Figure: Trajectories of the main simulation outputs in the Dietz-Stern case. 74/99 ⌅ Numerical Simulations Objective +1.5 C Price in 2015 Price in 2020 Price in 2050 Sensitivity of 1.5 Init. price of 15 Init. price of 80 18.58 86.27 23.00 93.04 82.93 146.35 Sensitivity of 2.9 Init. price of 15 Init. price of 80 65.50 144.32 286.02 260.35 xxx xxx Table: Price in order to prevent the temperature anomaly to reach the + 1.5 ceiling in 2100, prices are in 2005 US$/t CO2 . 97/99 V. Some “solutions” The four pillars of decarbonization From The World Bank, Decarbonizing Development Report, p 32 37 Money is already there Central Banks printing money Pension Funds lacking long term investment opportunities Real economy lacking infrastructure assets A unique macro-economic opportunity 38 Policy: making a low carbon economy work 39 A carbon floor-price to boost the EU carbon market 40 Thank you for your attention. 18/18