World Cup 2014 Scenario - CIES Football Observatory

CIES Football Observatory
World Cup 2014 Scenario
World Cup Scenario
Méthodologie
L’Observatoire du football du CIES a analysé les trajectoires de
carrière des joueurs ayant fait partie de l’effectif des quatre derniers finalistes de la Coupe du Monde. Nous avons ainsi identifié
quelques-uns des facteurs qui ont permis à ces équipes de surclasser leurs rivaux.
Sur cette base, nous avons sélectionné les indicateurs suivants
pour évaluer le potentiel des équipes qualifiées pour le Mondial
brésilien:
- Matchs en championnat sur l’ensemble de la carrière
- Buts en championnat sur l’ensemble de la carrière
- Matchs en championnat lors des deux dernières années
- Buts en championnat lors des deux dernières années
- Matchs en équipe nationale A lors des deux dernières années
- Matchs en Coupe du Monde sur l’ensemble de la carrière
Les résultats pour chaque équipe nationale sont reportés dans
des diagrammes comptant des cases vertes ou rouges. Une case
verte indique que la valeur mesurée pour l’équipe en question
est supérieure au minimum observé pour les quatre derniers finalistes au niveau des 11 joueurs avec les valeurs les plus élevées. Si
ceci n’est pas le cas, la case est rouge. Une plus grande proportion
de cases vertes indique une plus forte probabilité d’avancer dans
la compétition.
En cas d’égalité, nous avons pris en compte le nombre de matchs
de Coupe du Monde joués par les sélections nationales en question lors des quatre dernières éditions (tradition à la Coupe du
Monde).
A propos du CIES Football Observatory
L’Observatoire du football est un groupe de recherche faisant partie du Centre international d’étude du sport (CIES), une fondation de droit privé affiliée à l’Université de Neuchâtel (Suisse). Créé en 2005 par Raffaele Poli et Loïc Ravenel, ce groupe se compose de quatre chercheurs spécialisés dans la récolte et l’exploration de données, ainsi que dans leur analyse statistique.
Deux rapports sont publiés chaque année. En janvier, la Demographic Study propose une analyse approfondie du profil des
joueurs et des équipes dans 31 ligues de première division d’associations nationales membres de l’UEFA. En juin, l’Annual Review
se concentre sur les joueurs et les clubs du big-5 en complétant l’approche démographique par des analyses économiques et
l’étude des performances sur le terrain.
Depuis 2005, l’Observatoire du Football du CIES a régulièrement été mandaté pour mener des études par de prestigieuses institutions parmi lesquelles on compte notamment la FIFA, l’UEFA, l’European Club Association (ECA), l’European Professional Football Leagues (EPFL), la Swiss Football League (SFL), ainsi que des clubs professionnels dans différents pays.
World Cup Scenario
Groupe stage
Groupe A
Groupe B
Groupe C
Groupe D
1. Brazil
1. Spain
1. Japan
1. England
2. Croatia
2. The Netherlands
2. Colombia
2. Italy
3. Mexico
3. Chili
3. Ivory Coast
3. Uruguay
4. Cameroon
4. Australia
4. Greece
4. Costa Rica
Groupe E
Groupe F
Groupe G
Groupe H
1. France
1. Argentina
1. Portugal
1. Belgium
2. Ecuador
2. Nigeria
2. Germany
2. Russia
3. Switzerland
3. Bosnia-Herzegovina
3. USA
3. South Korea
4. Honduras
4. Iran
4. Ghana
4. Algeria
Knock-out round
1/8 Finals
1/4 Finals
1/2 Finals
FINAL
Brazil

The Netherlands

Brazil

Japan

Italy

Italy

Brazil

France

France

Nigeria

France

Portugal

Portugal

Russia

Brazil

Croatia

Spain

Spain

Spain

Colombia

England

England

Spain

Ecuador

Argentina

Argentina

Argentina

France

Germany

Germany

Argentina

Belgium

Complete scenario
3rd place
World Cup Scenario
Brazil
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
Croatia
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: Finalist
CIES Football Observatory prediction: 1/8 final
Mexico
Cameroun
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: not qualified
GROUP A
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: not qualified
World Cup Scenario
Spain
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
The Netherlands
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: World Champion
CIES Football Observatory prediction: 1/8 final
Chili
Australia
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: not qualified
GROUP B
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: not qualified
World Cup Scenario
Japan
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
Colombia
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction:1/8 final
CIES Football Observatory prediction: 1/8 final
Ivory Coast
Greece
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: not qualified
GROUP C
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: not qualified
World Cup Scenario
England
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
Italy
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: 1/4 final
CIES Football Observatory prediction: 1/4 final
Uruguay
Costa Rica
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: not qualified
GROUP D
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: not qualified
World Cup Scenario
France
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
Ecuador
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: 4th
CIES Football Observatory prediction: 1/8 final
Switzerland
Honduras
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: not qualified
GROUP E
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: not qualified
World Cup Scenario
Argentina
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
Nigeria
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: 3rd
CIES Football Observatory prediction: 1/8 final
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Iran
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: not qualified
GROUP F
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: not qualified
World Cup Scenario
Portugal
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
Germany
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: 1/4 final
CIES Football Observatory prediction: 1/4 final
USA
Ghana
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: not qualified
GROUP G
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: not qualified
World Cup Scenario
Belgium
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
Russia
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: 1/4 final
CIES Football Observatory prediction: 1/8 final
South Korea
Algeria
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: not qualified
GROUP H
League matches
League goals
National A-team matches
during career
last 2 years
during career
last 2 years
last 2 years
World Cup
National A-team tradition
CIES Football Observatory prediction: not qualified