SWF_140820 - HumanitarianResponse

CENTRE AFRICAIN POUR LES APPLIC
ATIONS
CA
DE LA METEOROLOGIE AU DEVELOPPEMENT
Institution Africaine parrainée par la CEA
et l’OMM
AFRICAN CENTRE OF METEOROLOGICAL
APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
African Institution under the aegis of UNECA and WMO
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING
PREVISION DES CONDITIONS METEO A FORT IMPACT: PSN06- 730
Date of issue / Etablie le: August, 20th 2014
This bulletin is a three days forecast for occurrences of five severe weather phenomena (Heavy Rainfall
Rainfall,, Strong wind,
wind, Extreme
temperature,
temperature, Dust or Sand,
Sand, Wave)
Wave).
Ce bulletin donne une prévision à trois jours de l’occurrence de cinq phénomènes météorologiques à fort impact (Fortes Pluies , vent
fort,
fort, Températures
Températures Extrêmes,
Extrêmes, Poussière ou vent de sable,
sable, Vague ).
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON August, 21st 2014
LEGEND
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Medium: South-east Guinea,
Sierra
a Leone,
Leone West Liberia, West Cote d’Ivoire.
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence
Confidence:Low:
South-east/North-east
Nigeria, South-west/North/South-east
South
Cameroon, South-west
South
CAR, North Congo,
North-west
west DRC, North-west
North
Ethiopia.
Temperature > 40°C:
40°C North/Central
Mauritania, East Western Sahara, North Mali,
Central/South
Central/South/East
Algeria, South/Central
Tunisia, North Niger,
Niger South-east Egypt, Northeast/Central Sudan, Central Chad, North
Libya, East
ast Eritrea and Djibouti, East Ethiopia,
North-west
west Somalia.
Somalia
Temperature < 0°C: South of South Africa.
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km: West of
Western Sahara, North-west Mauritania, North
Libya, North Chad.
Wave>3m: South off coast of South Africa.
85, Avenue des Ministères
: (227) 20 73 49 92 -- Fax : (227) 20 72 36 27 --
BP : 13184 NiameyNiamey Niger
: [email protected] --
Web : http//www.acmad.org
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON August, 22nd 2014
LEGEND
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Medium : East Guinea, North
Sierra Leone.
Leone
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Low: West Niger,
North/Central/South
North/Central/South-east
Nigeria, Southwest/North
west/North-west
Cameroon, North-west
Ethiopia.
Temperature > 40°C: North/Central
Mauritania, North Mali, Central/South/East
Algeria, North Niger, North Chad, North
Libya, South-east
South
Egypt, Northeast/Central Sudan, East Eritrea, Djibouti,
North-east
east Ethiopia, North-west
North
Somalia.
Temperature < 0°C: Lesotho, South/West
of South
th Africa, South Namibia.
Namibia
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km:
Km North
of Western Sahara, North-west
Mauritania, Central Tunisia.
Wave>3m East off coast of South Africa.
Wave>3m:
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON August, 23
rd
LEGEND
2014
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence Medium : West Niger, East
Confidence:
Burkina, North-west
North
Nigeria.
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence Low: West off Coasts of
Confidence:
Guinea, South Guinea Bissau, West
Ethiopia.
Temperature > 40°C:
40°C North/Central
Mauritania, North Mali, West/Central/East
Algeria, North-west Libya, South/Central
Tunisia, Central Chad, South-east Egypt,
North-east/Central
east/Central Sudan, East Eritrea
and Djibouti,
Djibouti North-east Ethiopia, Northwest Somalia.
Somalia
Temperature < 0°C: Lesotho, South-east
of South Africa.
Africa
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km: North
of Western Sahara, North-west
Mauritania, North-east Algeria, Central
Tunisia
Tunisia.
Wave>3m: West off coasts of Namibia,
Wave>3m
South/East off coasts of South Africa.
Source: Synthesis of:
1) Dynamic of atmosphere by different global models (ECMWF, GFS, ARPEGE, UKMO),
2) Index of extreme events from ECMWF (http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/efi/efi_tp/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/efi/efi_tp/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/efi/efi_tp/),
3) Occurrence probability of extreme precipitation from TIGGE project ensemble models (http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_extreme_prob.html
(
jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_extreme_prob.html),
probability exceeding the 90th percentile [%]
4) MJO active phase.
85, Avenue des Ministères
: (227) 20 73 49 92 -- Fax : (227) 20 72 36 27 --
BP : 13184 NiameyNiamey Niger
: [email protected] --
Web : http//www.acmad.org