Research update (21 September 2012)

Transcription

Cooperatieve Centrale
Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A.
(Rabobank Nederland)
Primary Credit Analyst:
Alexandre Birry, London (44) 20-7176-7108; [email protected]
Secondary Contact:
Dhruv Roy, London (44) 20-7176-6709; [email protected]
Table Of Contents
Major Rating Factors
Outlook
Rationale
Related Criteria And Research
WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT
SEPTEMBER 21, 2012 1
1014949 | 301308293
Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank
B.A. (Rabobank Nederland)
SACP
aa-
Anchor
a-
Business
Position
Capital and
Earnings
Risk Position
Funding
+
+1
+
Additional
Factors
0
Issuer Credit Rating
Very Strong
+2
Adequate
0
Strong
+1
GRE Support
0
Group
Support
0
AA/Negative/A-1+
Average
0
Liquidity
Support
Adequate
Sovereign
Support
+1
Major Rating Factors
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
• Market-leading franchise in The Netherlands.
• Steady, long-term capital generation through
earnings.
• Relatively cautious management culture and
strategy.
• Strengthened funding and liquidity profiles.
• Relatively elevated impairments on certain loan
books, particularly in Ireland.
• Some deterioration in domestic performance.
• Mutual status somewhat constrains ability to raise
capital, if required.
1014949 | 301308293
Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A. (Rabobank Nederland)
Outlook: Negative
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' outlook on Coöperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A. (Rabobank
Nederland) is negative, in line with that on the State of The Netherlands (unsolicited ratings AAA/Negative/A-1+).
Under our criteria, with all other factors remaining the same, we would remove the one notch of government
support currently factored into the long-term counterparty credit rating on Rabobank Nederland if we lowered the
long-term unsolicited rating on The Netherlands by one notch (for further details, see table 22 in "Banks: Rating
Methodology And Assumptions," published on Nov. 9, 2011).
In addition to a sovereign downgrade, we could also lower the ratings if we see signs of a protracted further
deterioration in the bank's asset quality, leading us to reassess its risk position. We could also take a similar action
if a marked systemwide stress causes us to revise our view of the economic risk in the Netherlands under our
Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment methodology. We would likely revise the outlook on Rabobank
Nederland to stable if we revised the outlook on The Netherlands to stable, provided that asset quality trends
stabilize.
Rationale
The starting point for our ratings on Rabobank Nederland is its 'a-' anchor, which is primarily based on our view of the
banking system in its home market of The Netherlands. We consider its business position to be "very strong" (as
defined by our criteria) due to its strong franchise in The Netherlands and its relatively prudent management approach.
We view capital and earnings as "adequate" since we expect our risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio before diversification
adjustments to remain within the 8.0%-8.5% range over the next 18 months. Our assessment of risk position is "strong"
due to the relatively defensive profile of its balance sheet, underpinned by its large domestic residential mortgage
portfolio. We view funding as "average" and liquidity as "adequate" since we consider that the relatively high
loan-to-deposit ratio by international standards is mitigated by Rabobank Nederland's well-managed wholesale funding
activity and increased liquid asset buffers. The ratings also reflect Rabobank Nederland's "high" systemic importance in
The Netherlands, which takes into account its material market share in retail deposits in particular.
Anchor
The 'a-' anchor draws on our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) methodology and our view of the
weighted-average economic risk in the countries in which Rabobank Nederland operates, based on the geographic
distribution of its private sector customer lending--The Netherlands (75%), the rest of Europe (10%), U.S. (10%), and
the rest of the world (5%). The economic risk score for The Netherlands is '2' on a scale of 1-10 (1 is the lowest risk and
10 is the highest), and the weighted-average score for the countries in which Rabobank Nederland operates is close to
that level. Our industry risk score for Rabobank Nederland is based solely on its home market of The Netherlands. The
Dutch banking industry is dominated by three large players, of which Rabobank Nederland is one. The other two are
subject to restructurings as a result of state aid that they had received. The sector's relatively large reliance on
wholesale funding is partly attributable to households' propensity to save in life insurance and pension products.
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Table 1
Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A. (Rabobank Nederland) Key Figures
--Year-ended Dec. 31-(Mil. €)
2012*
2011
2010
2009
2008
Adjusted assets
767,904
728,863
648,861
603,962
608,392
Customer loans (gross)
492,380
471,174
458,551
438,439
429,582
31,767
31,641
21,440
19,697
18,573
Operating revenues
7,186
13,378
12,716
11,867
11,652
Noninterest expenses
4,551
8,720
8,196
7,304
7,611
905
1,942
2,239
1,902
2,560
Adjusted common equity
Core earnings
*Data as of June 30.
Business Position: Exceptionally Stable And Resilient Franchise
We consider Rabobank Nederland's business position to be "very strong," reflecting its exceptional stability and
resilience, prudent management and strategy, and leading competitive position in its domestic market. Rabobank
Nederland is a cooperative organization and it prioritizes steady, long-term franchise growth over short-term returns.
In our view, this approach has enabled Rabobank Nederland to navigate the global financial crisis relatively
comfortably.
Stable revenue generation from the bank's domestic retail and commercial banking activities is a key supporting factor
(see chart 1). This stability is underpinned by Rabobank Nederland's diversified product offering and its leading
positions in Dutch household savings (39% market share at June 30, 2012), residential mortgages (28%), and lending to
the trade, industry, and service sectors (43%). The bank's roots are in financing the Dutch agricultural sector, and it still
dominates this market; its market share exceeds 80%.
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Chart 1
Rabobank Nederland is less diversified internationally than several larger banks, but it is active outside The
Netherlands in supporting Dutch clients and in its traditional core market of food and agriculture financing. Its
international network is consequently focused on major agricultural centers in Europe, the Americas, and Australasia.
It also conducts wholesale, commercial, and retail banking in selected countries. Wholesale banking activities are
carried out under the trading name Rabobank International, which is a division of Rabobank Nederlands, rather than a
separate legal entity.
We consider that recent transactions--such as the absorption of a smaller Dutch bank, Friesland Bank, and the sale of
its stake in Switzerland's Bank Sarasin--have had a broadly neutral impact on our view of the strength of Rabobank
Nederland's franchise.
Table 2
Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A. (Rabobank Nederland) Business Position
--Year-ended Dec. 31-(%)
2012*
2011
2010
2009
2008
Total revenues from business line (currency in
millions)
7,186.0
13,378.0
12,716.0
11,867.0
11,652.0
Retail banking/total revenues from business line
47.7
51.9
51.2
51.6
54.9
Commercial & retail banking/total revenues from
business line
29.7
28.0
28.1
29.9
17.1
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Table 2
Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A. (Rabobank Nederland) Business Position (cont.)
Asset management/total revenues from business
line
8.6
8.6
9.5
8.3
13.9
Other revenues/total revenues from business line
13.9
11.5
11.2
10.2
14.0
5.1
3.0
5.6
5.2
9.5
Return on equity
*Data as of June 30.
Capital And Earnings: Steady Capital Strengthening
We view Rabobank Nederland's capital and earnings as "adequate." The risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio (based on our
updated hybrid and BICRA criteria) before diversification adjustments is already consistent with an "adequate"
assessment, and we expect it to remain in the 8.0%-8.5% range over the next 18 months. Rabobank Nederland's
mutuality restricts to some extent its ability to raise new core capital, if required. However, it has issued deeply
subordinated member certificates--classified as Core Tier 1 capital--to its customers and has demonstrated good
access to the hybrid market. Its earnings capacity is somewhat constrained in our view because it does not seek to
maximize profitability, as illustrated by its relatively low return on equity target of 8%. However, retained earnings,
which benefit from the absence of common shareholder dividends, have consistently been sufficient to both support
balance sheet growth and increase its core capital ratios, and we expect this model to continue.
The RAC ratio before diversification adjustments was up by about one percentage point during the year to 8.2% at
year-end 2011, the date of the last published Pillar 3 report (see table 3). During 2011, Rabobank Nederland re-issued
the member certificates with stronger equity-like characteristics, and issued $4 billion in "new generation" Tier 1
instruments including write-down features. We classify the new Tier 1 issues as "intermediate" equity content hybrids
under our criteria and included the member certificates in our adjusted common equity measure at year-end 2011 (see
"S&P Includes Rabobank Nederland's New Member Certificates In ACE; Tier 1 Issue Classified As 'Intermediate'
Hybrid," published on Dec. 13, 2011). We expect that the cost initiatives recently implemented, along with close
management of the balance sheet, will enable the ratio to increase gradually further over the rating horizon, despite the
difficult economic backdrop.
Table 3
Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A. (Rabobank Nederland) Capital And Earnings
2012*
2011
2010
2009
Tier 1 capital ratio
16.9
17.0
15.7
13.8
12.7
S&P RAC ratio before diversification
N.M.
8.2
7.1
7.6
N.M.
S&P RAC ratio after diversification
N.M.
10.0
8.6
9.2
N.M.
Adjusted common equity/total adjusted
capital
91.7
91.7
76.5
75.7
66.7
Net interest income/operating revenues
61.9
69.0
67.7
67.8
73.1
Fee income/operating revenues
20.8
22.3
22.3
21.7
24.8
Market-sensitive income/operating revenues
N/A
3.5
2.6
(0.7)
(10.4)
Noninterest expenses/operating revenues
63.3
65.2
64.5
61.5
65.3
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
Preprovision operating income/average
assets
2008
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Table 3
Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A. (Rabobank Nederland) Capital And Earnings (cont.)
Core earnings/average managed assets
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
*Data as of June 30. N/A--Not applicable. N.M.--Not meaningful.
Table 4
Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A. (Rabobank Nederland) RACF [Risk-Adjusted Capital
Framework] Data
(Mil. €)
Exposure*
Basel II RWA
Average Basel II
RW (%)
Standard & Poor's
RWA
Average Standard &
Poor's RW (%)
110,829
1,788
2
3,325
3
Credit risk
Government and central
banks
Institutions
29,145
7,288
25
6,870
24
Corporate
244,583
90,263
37
196,639
80
Retail
256,471
41,400
16
80,309
31
190,095
1,375
1
32,709
17
Securitization§
Of which mortgage
26,213
9,100
35
30,990
118
Other assets
17,298
37,013
214
18,332
106
684,539
186,850
27
336,466
49
4,267
13,225
763
45,925
1,076
--
5,763
--
8,144
--
--
18,988
--
54,068
--
--
--
--
0
--
--
17,775
--
28,379
--
Basel II RWA
Standard & Poor's
RWA
% of Standard &
Poor's RWA
223,613
418,913
100
--
(74,886)
(18)
223,613
344,027
82
Total credit risk
Market risk
Equity in the banking
book†
Trading book market risk
Total market risk
Insurance risk
Total insurance risk
Operational risk
Total operational risk
(Mil. €)
Diversification adjustments
RWA before diversification
Total adjustments to
RWA
RWA after diversification
Tier 1 capital
Tier 1 ratio (%)
Total adjusted
capital
Standard & Poor's
RAC ratio (%)
Capital ratio before
adjustments
37,964
17.0
34,500
8.2
Capital ratio after
adjustments†
37,964
17.0
34,500
10.0
(Mil. €)
Capital ratio
*Exposure at default. §Securitization exposure includes the securitization tranches deducted from capital in the regulatory framework. †Exposure
and Standard & Poor's risk-weighted assets for equity in the banking book include minority equity holdings in financial institutions. ‡Adjustments
to Tier 1 ratio are additional regulatory requirements (e.g., transitional floor or Pillar 2 add-ons). RWA--Risk-weighted assets. RW--Risk weight.
RAC--Risk-adjusted capital. Sources: Company data as of Dec. 31, 2011, Standard & Poor's.
1014949 | 301308293
Risk Position: Underpinned By Domestic Mortgage Book
Rabobank Nederland's risk position is "strong," in our opinion. In particular, we consider that the standard capital
charges applied to its assets in the RAC framework are generally conservative in view of the better-than-average risk
profile of its balance sheet. Its long-term average bad debt cost of 25 basis points (bps) illustrates its focus on
lower-risk, more-stable sectors, although the cost has increased recently because of the weaker economy.
Asset quality is largely underpinned by the large domestic residential mortgage book, which represented 45% of
Rabobank Nederland's private sector lending at June 30, 2012 (see chart 2). The asset quality track record of this
portfolio has been among the best in the Netherlands. It has a very low and stable long-term average bad debt cost of
about 5 bps.
Although its domestic market accounts for close to three-quarters of total lending, Rabobank is active across all parts
of the Dutch economy, without undue concentrations. This is reflected in a diversification benefit of 18% at end-2011
under our RAC methodology. International operations have recently refocused on the food and agriculture sectors in
which Rabobank has longstanding expertise and competitive advantages.
Chart 2
Rabobank Nederland has not been immune from the difficult economic and market conditions, however, and it has
incurred elevated impairments and write-downs in certain international markets in recent times, particularly in Ireland
and earlier in U.S. structured credit. These losses were recognized at a relatively early stage, and the group was able to
manage them due to the small size of the underlying portfolios in the context of the consolidated balance sheet.
We observe that asset quality in certain domestic portfolios, such as commercial real estate and certain SME sectors,
1014949 | 301308293
has deteriorated since the second half of 2011; this is in line with other Dutch players. We consider that Rabobank
Nederland can manage the deterioration to date, supported by the adequate diversification of its overall exposures. We
consider the provisioning levels of the related impaired exposures to be sound. Also, we observe that loan losses
remain smaller than normalized losses derived from our RAC framework. Our base-case view is that Rabobank
Nederland's impairments should remain elevated relative to historical average for the rest of 2012, and that it will
gradually improve from 2013. We expect the reduction in the charge in Ireland to be more than offset by the increased
provisioning levels in The Netherlands, on the back of a weak economic outlook in the near term.
Table 5
Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A. (Rabobank Nederland) Risk Position
2012*
2011
2010
2009
2008
9.0
2.8
4.6
2.1
14.5
Total diversification adjustment/S&P RWA before
diversification
N.M.
(18.0)
(17.6)
(17.6)
N.M.
Total managed assets/adjusted common equity (x)
25.8
23.1
30.4
30.9
33.0
Growth in customer loans
New loan loss provisions/average customer loans
Net charge-offs/average customer loans
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.3
N.M.
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
2.3
2.1
2.0
2.1
1.5
34.2
31.0
28.1
49.2
50.2
Gross nonperforming assets/customer loans + other real
estate owned
Loan loss reserves/gross nonperforming assets
*Data as of June 30. RWA--Risk-weighted assets. N.M.--Not meaningful.
Funding And Liquidity: Strong Deposit Franchise And Well-Managed Wholesale Funding Base
Rabobank Nederland's funding is "average" and liquidity position is "adequate", in our opinion. As is the norm in the
Dutch market, its loan-to-deposit ratio is relatively high, at 143% at June 30, 2012, despite its leadership position in the
domestic deposit market. Strong inflows of deposits, despite continued lending growth, have led to some improvement
in the ratio since end-2010, when the ratio stood at 154%.
The bank has maintained good access to both public and private wholesale funding markets through the crisis and has
taken advantage of opportunities to extend the maturity profile of debt issues. The average maturity of debt issued in
recent years exceeds five years and the bank has issued several 10-year bonds in the year-to-date, despite volatile
market conditions.
Rabobank Nederland's liquidity position has strengthened materially over the past few years. The bank maintains a
surplus of liquid assets well in excess of regulatory requirements. At end-June 2012, it reported a liquidity buffer of
€159 billion--broadly stable since end-2011--€67 billion of which was in cash, mainly placed at the ECB. A further €48
billion was in the form of government debt and the remainder consisted of other assets eligible for repo activity with
central banks. We estimate that this buffer significantly exceeds the volume of wholesale maturities over 12 months.
1014949 | 301308293
Table 6
Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A. (Rabobank Nederland) Funding And Liquidity
2012*
2011
2010
2009
2008
53.9
54.2
53.2
55.2
62.0
Customer loans (net)/customer deposits
143.3
143.1
153.6
152.2
140.4
Long term funding ratio
N.M.
71.1
69.8
N.M.
N.M.
Broad liquid assets/short-term wholesale
funding (x)
N.M.
1.1
0.8
N.M.
N.M.
Net broad liquid assets/short-term customer
deposits
N.M.
2.7
(9.2)
N.M.
N.M.
Net short-term interbank funding/total
wholesale funding
N.M.
(0.1)
(3.4)
N.M.
N.M.
Short-term wholesale funding/total wholesale
funding
N.M.
47.4
46.4
N.M.
N.M.
Core deposits/funding base
*Data as of June 30. N.M.--Not meaningful.
External Support: High Systemic Importance In The Netherlands
The long-term counterparty credit rating on Rabobank Nederland is one notch higher than the stand-alone credit
profile (SACP), reflecting our view that it has high systemic importance in The Netherlands and that the government is
supportive toward its banking sector. Our assessment of Rabobank Nederland's systemic importance partly reflects its
material market shares in retail deposits and residential mortgages.
Related Criteria And Research
•
•
•
•
•
No Pain, No Gain: How The Housing Market Correction Is Affecting Dutch Banks, Jun. 27, 2012
Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011
Group Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011
Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011
Bank Hybrid Capital Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 1, 2011
Anchor Matrix
Economic Risk
Industry
Risk
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
a
a
a-
bbb+
bbb+
bbb
-
-
-
-
2
a
a-
a-
bbb+
bbb
bbb
bbb-
-
-
-
3
a-
a-
bbb+
bbb+
bbb
bbb-
bbb-
bb+
-
-
4
bbb+
bbb+
bbb+
bbb
bbb
bbb-
bb+
bb
bb
-
5
bbb+
bbb
bbb
bbb
bbb-
bbb-
bb+
bb
bb-
b+
6
bbb
bbb
bbb-
bbb-
bbb-
bb+
bb
bb
bb-
b+
7
-
bbb-
bbb-
bb+
bb+
bb
bb
bb-
b+
b+
8
-
-
bb+
bb
bb
bb
bb-
bb-
b+
b
9
-
-
-
bb
bb-
bb-
b+
b+
b+
b
10
-
-
-
-
b+
b+
b+
b
b
b-
1014949 | 301308293
Ratings Detail (As Of September 21, 2012)
Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A. (Rabobank
Nederland)
Counterparty Credit Rating
AA/Negative/A-1+
Junior Subordinated
A
Preferred Stock
A
Senior Unsecured
Greater China Regional Scale
cnAAA
Senior Unsecured
A-1+
Senior Unsecured
AA
Senior Unsecured
AA/A-1+
Short-Term Debt
A-1+
Subordinated
A+
Counterparty Credit Ratings History
23-Jan-2012
AA/Negative/A-1+
07-Dec-2011
AA/Watch Neg/A-1+
29-Nov-2011
AA/Stable/A-1+
08-Dec-2009
AAA/Negative/A-1+
Sovereign Rating
Netherlands (The) (State of) (Unsolicited Ratings)
AAA/Negative/A-1+
Related Entities
Cooperative Centrale-Raiffeisen Boerenleenbank B.A. (New York
Branch)
Senior Unsecured
AA
Short-Term Debt
A-1+
Rabobank New Zealand Ltd.
AA/Negative/A-1+
Rabobank USA Financial Corp.
--/--/A-1+
Rabo Capital Securities Ltd.
Junior Subordinated
A
Rabohypotheekbank N.V.
AA/Negative/--
*Unless otherwise noted, all ratings in this report are global scale ratings. Standard & Poor's credit ratings on the global scale are comparable
across countries. Standard & Poor's credit ratings on a national scale are relative to obligors or obligations within that specific country.
Additional Contact:
Financial Institutions Ratings Europe; [email protected]
1014949 | 301308293
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1014949 | 301308293

Research update (21 September 2012)

Transcription

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