Automotive industry

Automotive industry
Comprehensive analysis of the evolution
of the automotive sector in Europe
European Commission
Submitted to the European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and
Equal Opportunities
Executed by:
Groupe ALPHA
Alphametrics
DG EMPL project VC/2007/0266
Automotive industry
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these fields.
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European Commission
Automotive industry
Comprehensive analysis of the evolution
of the automotive sector in Europe
Executive Summary
The full study is available under the link
http://ec.europa.eu/restructuringandjobs
NOTE: The study conducted in the end of 2007/beginning of 2008 was a pilot one. It
served as a test for the methodology that was subsequently used (in an improved way)
in all the other 17 sectoral studies. On the other hand, unlike the other ones that focussed mainly on the skills issue, the main purpose of the Automotive Study was to support the “European Partnership for the Anticipation of Change in the Automotive Sector”
(see http://www.anticipationofchange.eu/fileadmin/anticipation/Logos/EU_partnership_en.pdf ) that was signed by the European Commission and the main organisations
of the sector (employers and trade unions) and presented in the Automotive Forum of
October 2007 (see http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=782&langId=en&eventsId
=168&furtherEvents=yes). This Partnership is being developed by the partners through
a two-year Work Programme that includes also actions on anticipation of skills needs
(see http://www.anticipationofchange.eu/). Finally, it must be underlined that the
study has been finalised before the emergence of the current economic crisis. Even if it
describes the structural adjustments that the industry and their workers face, it does not
take into account the effect of the downturn on the sector, significantly more severe and
brutal than in any of the other sectors analysed.
European Commission
Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities
Unit F3
Manuscript completed in 2009
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission may be held
responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this publication.
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Preface
Education and
training, in the
context of a lifelong
learning
perspective, are
an indispensable
means for promoting adaptability and employabi­
lity, active citizenship, personal and
professional fulfilment.
of society and the economy, as a
means to increased competitiveness and growth, as well as to
greater social cohesion, in Europe.
Investment in human capital
through better education, and the
development of skills and competences should be increased. It is
important to anticipate skills needs
— and also skills gaps — which are
emerging in the European labour
market, as well as to improve the
matching of knowledge, skills
and competences with the needs
With this in mind, the Commission
has elaborated a set of analysis of
emerging competences in 18 sectors. Those analysis are available
to all economic, social and professional organisations, educations
and training institutions, etc. They
can help them to refine their stra­
tegies and to engage into forwardlooking actions.
This is more important than ever in
the current situation of crisis that
will undoubtedly lead to substantial changes in economic activities
in Europe coming years.
Robert Verrue
Director-General, Employment,
Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities DG
3
Automotive industry
Aims and methodology
The renewed Lisbon strategy and
European Employment strategy
stress the need for Europe to place
more emphasis on a better anticipation of skill needs together with
the need to reduce labour markets
mismatches. These policies aims
also at minimising social costs
and facilitating adaptation during
restructuring processes through
a better anticipation and positive
management of change. Globalisation, technological change, climate
change and demographic developments (including ageing and migration) in that respect pose huge challenges, comprising both risks and
opportunities. In that context, the
Commission has launched recently
the New Skills for New Jobs initiative
together with other related European projects aimed at identifying
future job and skills needs using
quantitative modelling approaches.
While having advantages of robustness, stakeholders as well as the
European Commission identified a
clear need for complementary more
qualitative forward-looking analysis. Consequently, the European
Commission commissioned in 2007
a series of 18 future-oriented sector
studies (horizon 2020) on skills and
jobs following a uniform, qualitative methodology. Results of these
studies have become available in
summer 2009, and will be followed
4
by a number of other initiatives over
the oncoming year and beyond. The
current economic crisis calls for the
reinforcement of policies aimed at
developing the employability of the
workforce. This project fits within
this policy objective.
18 sector studies,
one methodology
The results of this study aim to serve
as a guide in launching further EU
and other actions to promote the
strategic management of human
resources and to foster stronger
synergies between innovation,
skills and jobs, taking into account
the global context and encouraging adaptations to national and
regional level.
To validate, add and complement
the findings of the project and
to make sure that results are disseminated as broadly as possible
across Europe, relevant stakeholders including European social partners, other services from the Commission with the expertise in the
sectors analysed, representatives
from the European Parliament,
the European Economic and Social
Committee, the Committee of the
Regions, Eurofound and Cedefop
were involved in the project from
the beginning.
Aims and methodology
Sectors Covered
Automotive industry
Defence
Textiles, wearing apparel and leather products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastic products
Non-metallic materials (glass, cement, ceramic…)
Electromechanical engineering
Computer, electronic and optical products
Building of ships and boats
Furniture and others
Electricity, gas, water & waste
Distribution, trade
Hotels, restaurants, catering and related services
Transport
Post and telecommunications
Financial services (bank, insurance and others)
Health and social work
Other services, maintenance and cleaning
A standard predefined methodo­
logy was developed by a panel of
experts under the direction of Prof
Maria João Rodrigues and applied
to all 18 studies to ensure consistency and comparability of the
results, the studies being produced
by different contractors.
Based on the basic methodological framework, each contractor
­executed 7 defined steps, starting
with the mapping of main trends,
key drivers of change, leading to
scenarios of plausible evolution
and their implication for employment at the year 2020 time horizon,
the identification of implications
for emerging competences and
occupation profiles in terms of
jobs expanding, transforming or
declining, and their implications
in terms of strategic choices and
subsequent recommendations for
companies, education and trai­
ning systems, social partners and
public authorities at all levels. This
foresight methodology implies an
approach combining desk ­research
and expert knowledge.
At the end of each sector study a
final European workshop for the
sector was organised by the Commission to validate results as well
as refine recommendations. In
5
Automotive industry
addition to European Commission and Eurofound staff, about 20
experts per workshop from industry, academia and sector organisations including workers and
employers’ representatives with
a sound knowledge of jobs and
skills were invited to comment and
provide recommendations to the
report as part of the methodology.
Brief description of
the methodological steps
Mapping
The main purpose of this analysis was to provide factual background to identify key drivers
used in the subsequent scenario
development. Consequently, the
Report analysed recent sector
developments and trends and, at
the same time, depicts the current
state of play in the sector with an
emphasis on innovation, skills
and jobs. It was based on an analysis of available time series data
and relevant existing studies. It
analysed 1) structural characteristics (production, value added,
employment in various dimensions, and related factors); 2)
the value chain; 3) technological
change and innovation; 4) trade
and international competition as
well as 5) regulation. The results
6
of all sections were summarised
in a SWOT analysis and were used
as input to identify key drivers.
Drivers of change
On the basis of the mapping of
the sector, a set of key drivers,
sector specific or not, was identified. Literature review and expert
knowledge of the sector were
then used to define a conclusive list of sector-specific drivers.
Drivers were classified as exo­
genous or endogenous depen­
ding on the ability for the sector’s
stakeholders and policymakers
to influence them. These lists of
drivers were also discussed in the
experts’ ­p anel workshops.
Qualitative scenarios and implications for employment trends
The set of selected sectoral ­drivers
of change served as an input to
­develop scenarios for the evolution
of the sector and implications for
different occupations (composition
of employment / emerging competences) in the period 2008 to 2020.
Implications of scenarios and
emerging competences
Scenarios were built to assess the
implications for the level (absolute
Aims and methodology
demand) and composition (relative
demand compared to other job
functions) of employment of different job functions by 2020. New
and emergent skills required by different job functions were identified
based on the analysis of the evolution of past data on employment
by occupation, on the analysis from
the present situation and of experts’
comments during the workshop.
The focus was on identifying and
describing key and critical competences for the future for each of
the major occupational function in
relation to the different scenarios
elaborated. These formed the basis
for the strategic choices identified
in a next step.
Strategic choices for companies to
meet emergent competence needs
Each sector study assessed possible
strategic choices in terms of feasibility and actor involvement. The
options comprised recruiting workers from other sectors, countries,
recruiting graduates, re-training
employed workers as well as changing work organisation.
Specific implications
for education and training
Options to improve or to adapt
education and training systems
were looked at in this step of the
methodology, focussing more
particularly on the specific role
to be played by sectoral organisations, educational institutions
and governments such as a stronger cooperation between stakeholders or an increased flexibility
through modularisation of education and training.
Recommendations
Each sector study contains specific recommendations to the
sector. However, with the studies
analysing Europe as a whole, the
recommendations remain ge­neral
and need a follow-up at the
national and regional level. The
intention of the project especially
in the follow up phase is to use the
results to stimulate stakeholders
at lower territorial levels (national
/ regional) to work out results in
more details, repeat and adapt this
exercise to local needs rather than
providing standardised solutions.
Some general recommendations
call for an intensified co-operation
between relevant stakeholders, the
need to invest strongly in human
capital, more standardised regulations, enhanced VET to increase
social mobility and coordinated
National and European Vocational
Qualifications.
7
Automotive industry
Objectives of the study
The concern of this study is to
present an overview of the European automotive industry 1 and the
1 The automotive industry’s NACE code [European activity
code] is 34.00
changes which have occurred over
recent years and to consider the
potential developments over the
next few years and their implications for jobs and skills.
Main economic
and employment trends
The automotive industry accounts
for around 1.5% of GDP in the EU
and employs just under 2.4 million
people, around 6.5% of the total
employed in manufacturing or just
over 1% of total employed in the
EU economy as a whole. If jobs in
industries and services supplying the
automotive industry are taken into
account, employment is increased by
3-4 times. In Germany, the industry is
directly responsible for 2.4% of all
jobs in the economy and 13% of all
jobs in manufacturing.
Over the past decade, both the
share of value-added and employment in the industry have risen
8
slightly across the EU as a whole,
but this disguises marked shifts
in the relative importance of the
industry in different Member States
(Table 1). Between 1995 and 2006,
employment in the industry is estimated to have increased by 23% in
the EU, though by less in the EU15
countries and much more in the
new Member States. In 2006, the
latter accounted for some 19% of
the total employed in the industry
in the EU as opposed to under 14%
11 years earlier. Whereas the German share of employment rose to
39% of the total over these 11 years,
that of other EU15 Member States
fell from 51% to 41%.
Main economic and employment trends
Table 1 Employment in the automotive industry in the EU, 1995-2006
1995
1997
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Number employed (000s)
EU27
1 927
2 033
2 158
2 206
2 255
2 250
2 254
2 347
2 295
2 360
EU15
1 661
1 746
1 847
1 870
1 912
1 893
1 903
1 978
1 915
1 906
DE
674
702
762
769
806
833
844
923
910
930
Other EU15
987
1 044
1 145
1 108
1 105
1 060
1 060
1 055
1 005
976
New MS
266
287
311
336
343
357
351
368
380
454
% employed in automotive industry in EU
EU27
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
EU15
86.2
85.9
85.6
84.8
84.8
84.1
84.4
84.3
83.4
80.8
DE
35.0
34.5
35.3
34.9
35.8
37.0
37.4
39.3
39.6
39.4
Other EU15
51.2
51.4
53.0
50.2
49.0
47.1
47.0
45.0
43.8
41.4
New MS
13.8
14.1
14.4
15.2
15.2
15.9
15.6
15.7
16.6
19.2
Change in employment (1995=100)
EU27
100.0
105.5
112.0
114.5
117.0
116.8
117.0
121.8
119.1
122.5
EU15
100.0
105.1
111.2
112.6
115.1
114.0
114.6
119.1
115.3
114.8
DE
100.0
104.1
113.1
114.0
119.6
123.6
125.1
136.9
135.0
137.9
Other EU15
100.0
105.8
116.0
112.3
112.0
107.4
107.4
106.9
101.9
98.9
New MS
100.0
108.0
117.1
126.2
129.0
134.1
131.9
138.4
142.9
170.6
% Total employed in each group/country
EU27
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.1
EU15
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
DE
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.4
Other EU15
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
New MS
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
9
Automotive industry
The majority of those employed
in the automotive industry in the
EU15 countries are manual wor­
kers (around 60% in total), most of
them employed in skilled or at least
semi-skilled jobs, though the relative importance of skilled workers
varies across countries. In the new
Member States, the figure is closer
to 70%, most of them semi-skilled.
Most of the others in employment
are trained professionals or technicians, many of them engineers
(Table 2).
10
The relative number of en­gineers
and as other specialist pro­
fessionals and technicians increased
between 2000 and 2007 throughout the EU, while the number
employed as skilled manual
workers, especially as mechanics, declined. This decline was
es­pecially large in the new Member States, where it was accompanied by a counterpart increase in
the number of machine operators
and production line workers (i.e.
semi-skilled manual workers).
Main economic and employment trends
Table 2 Employment in the automotive industry by occupation,
2000 and 2007
% Total employed in the industry
EU15
DE
FR
IT
NewMS
2000
2007
2000
2007
2000
2007
2000
2007
2000
2007
Manager
4.5
5.2
3.5
4.3
2.7
4.8
2.6
2.8
1.8
3.3
Production
2.0
1.8
1.5
1.7
1.2
1.6
2.2
0.4
0.9
2.0
2.5
3.4
2.0
2.7
1.5
3.2
0.5
2.4
1.0
1.3
Professionals
Other
19.9
25.8
23.2
27.9
23.2
30.0
12.7
25.9
9.3
18.8
Engineers
12.3
15.2
13.0
15.7
18.4
22.6
7.6
14.0
3.9
8.5
Computer
specialists
1.3
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.3
2.0
1.1
1.4
0.7
2.0
Other
professionals
6.3
9.0
8.7
10.6
3.4
5.4
4.1
10.5
4.8
8.3
Business,
finance, sales
2.2
3.2
2.5
3.9
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.7
1.1
1.6
Other
4.1
5.8
6.3
6.7
2.0
3.7
2.2
7.9
3.7
6.7
Office
workers
8.0
7.4
8.5
8.3
5.5
6.4
12.8
8.8
2.8
5.0
Sales + Service
workers
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.1
0.4
0.5
1.2
0.7
0.7
0.3
Skilled manual
workers
33.8
29.1
41.9
34.4
32.8
30.0
22.1
19.9
18.6
25.4
7.7
6.6
8.8
6.7
5.5
3.7
7.1
6.3
2.7
8.3
Tool makers
5.2
4.5
6.9
6.0
5.8
4.7
1.3
2.2
8.5
6.7
Mechanics
12.3
9.4
13.1
11.0
15.5
8.8
11.2
6.8
4.0
5.3
8.5
8.6
13.1
10.7
6.0
12.8
2.6
4.6
3.5
5.1
Semi-skilled
workers
26.3
25.2
15.1
16.1
32.9
25.5
43.1
35.5
13.4
44.8
Production
line
23.7
21.9
12.8
13.5
29.4
20.3
40.5
34.4
12.0
41.7
Metal
moulders
Electricians +
others
Drivers
2.6
3.3
2.2
2.5
3.5
5.3
2.7
1.2
1.4
3.2
Low-skilled
workers
6.6
6.6
7.0
8.0
2.5
2.8
5.4
6.4
3.3
2.3
Source: EU Labour Force Survey
Note: The figure for 2000 represent an average of those for 1999 and 2000 and the figures for 2007,
an average of those for 2006 and 2007 in order to smooth fluctuations in the LFS data
11
Automotive industry
In terms of production, European
manufacturers account for around
20 million vehicles each year, or
33% of total world output, less
than producers in Asia/Oceania but
more than those in North America,
so attesting to the competitiveness of Europe’s automotive industry. The strength of the European
industry has principally been due
to its ability to adapt to a series
of major changes over the past
20 years: two oil crises, several substantial regulatory changes, technological advance, EU enlargement
and global competition (notably from Japan). The adaptations
concerned have been associated
with major consolidation of OEMs,
increased outsourcing, restructuring and relocation both within the
EU and to neighbouring countries.
Despite its relative strength, there
are weaknesses in certain parts of
the industry (Table 3):
• because of slow growth of the
West European market, manufacturers need to invest substantially
12
in product differentiation, which
leads then in turn to expand into
international markets in order
to achieve larger sales volumes.
While specialist manufacturers
are well placed to face international challenges, it is more difficult for generalist manufacturers;
• competition from low-cost
manufacturers has become a
major challenge. Pressure is
passed on from OEMs to equipment manufacturers, whose
share of the industry’s added
value has risen over the past 20
years. Over this period, European equipment manufacturers
have become world leaders, but
faced with increasing requirements and pressure to contain
prices, they are currently in a
difficult situation. Since they
account for the bulk of jobs in
the industry, the difficulties
they face have serious implications for employment across
the EU, especially in the major
car-producing countries.
Main economic and employment trends
Table 3 SWOT analysis of the European Automotive Sector
OEMs
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
Broad range of models
and excellence in high-end
segment
Small size of OEM
generalists
Diesel technology expertise
Strong financial situation
(compared to US)
Relatively flexible value
chain
Equipment suppliers
Weak capacity in hybrid
technology
Relatively weak
internationalisation,
especially R&D
Highly innovative and
leadership position in
numerous segments
Declining operating
income and weak financial
structure
Internalisation of sales and
production
Threat from US and
Japanese investment funds
Extreme weakening of the
small supplier network
Regional and political
aspects
Emerging regional system
(production, school,
innovation clusters)
Many differences in fiscal
conditions
Advanced regulatory
framework
Regional competition
versus complementary
networks
Non-integrated EU market
Regulatory policy of little
importance in international
trade negotiations
Coordinated export policy
Jobs
High level qualifications
(even in new Member
States)
Weak culture of change and
mobility
High productivity
Short supply of skilled
labour
Strong “automotive” culture
Ageing population
Social model
13
Automotive industry
Main drivers of change
There is significant potential for
growth in the automotive industry
both generally in the world and in
Europe in particular. Driven by the
needs of emergent economies (China, India, Russia), new actors are
entering the global market, intensifying competition in the more
mature European markets as well
as in emergent ones.
Four major drivers are important for
the future of the European automotive industry:
• Changing society and evolution of demand: the need for
mobility remains high in mature
economies and increases in emergent ones, but is accompanied by
new pressures and aspirations:
environmental concerns, urbanisation, demand for differentiation, increased energy prices. The
car becomes less a prized posse
ssion more a means of transport
(which increases competition
with other modes, especially in
cities, and raises the importance
of user costs).
14
• Emerging technology: the car
industry has always been one of
the most innovating sectors and
is likely to be even more so in the
future. Three areas of technology
are particularly important: electronics and ICT, new composite
materials and new, non-fossil fuel
forms of propulsion.
• Company strategies: the European industry is composed of internationally-recognised specialist
manufacturers and large generalist ones less involved in exporting.
The pace of internationalisation of
the latter will be important in competition with low cost producers
outside Europe as will be the range
of models they can offer and the
innovations incorporated in them.
• Policies of regulation: such policies include fiscal measures as well
as the regulatory framework as such
and affect both the supply side, by
imposing, for example, limitations
on CO2 emissions, and the demandside by raising prices, as well as
stimulating new technologies.
Scenarios and implications for employment
Table 4 Drivers of change in the automotive industry
Changing society and
evolution of demand
Emerging technology
Company strategies
Need for mobility
ICT (incl. nanotechnology)
Internationalisation
Greater diversity
New materials
Mergers and acquisitions
Rich versus poor
New propulsion (hydrogen,
fuel cells…)
Marketing choices
(premium, low cost, …)
Urbanisation
Ageing population
Pressure from energy prices
Innovation versus cost
oriented policy
Relocation
Changing regulation (fiscal, RD policy, regulatory framework)*
Environmental friendliness (incl. interoperability), fuel consumption and emissions,
safety, fiscal policy, Eco taxes, R-D incentives
* These factors interact with the three above.
Scenarios and implications
for employment
The response of the European industry will depend on its dual capa­city
to innovate and to expand into
global markets. These are major
challenges, notably for generalist and equipment manufacturers.
A pessimistic scenario: “Reduced
attractiveness of advanced passenger cars”, demonstrates the
risk of failure, which would mean
a significant increase in the lowcost vehicle share of the market,
leading to major restructuring and
relocation of production.
15
Automotive industry
Table 5 ‘Reduced attractiveness of advanced passenger cars’ scenario
Changing society and
evolution of demand
Price sensitive demand
Premium cars only for
enthusiasts
Emerging technology
Company strategies
Lack of innovation except in
premium cars
Internationalisation and
partnership with emergent
car manufacturers
Development of low-cost
car ranges
Low demand for
multimodal transportation
Consolidation and
relocation of equipment
manufacturers
Little consideration for
environmental aspects
Slow growth of EU market
Changing regulation (fiscal, RD policy, regulatory framework)*
Little coordination in EU of Environmental, Safety and Transportation policies
Lack of investment in R&D and in new technology
Uncoordinated, defensive fiscal policy promoted by Member States
An optimistic scenario: “New
cars for safe and sustainable
transport” demonstrates the
opportunities for an industry that
implements major innovations and
has export success
Table 6 ‘New cars for safe and sustainable transport’ scenario
Changing society and
evolution of demand
Emerging technology
High environmental and
safety considerations
New technologies (material,
electronic, propulsion)
Increasing prosperity
in new Member States
especially
New designs
Demand for new technology,
design and services
New services (including
transportation services)
Company strategies
Internationalisation
Partnership between
car and equipment
manufacturers
Investment and RD expenses
High level of segmentation
Growth in services activity
Changing regulation (fiscal, RD policy, regulatory framework)*
High level of coordination in EU on Environmental, Safety and Transportation policies
Investment in R&D and new technology but also in transport infrastructure
Coordinated fiscal policies promoted by Member States
16
Scenarios and implications for employment
Both scenarios probably involve
significant short-term job losses in the EU15, since these are
already in the pipeline as a
result of the massive relocation
of ge­neralist manufacturers to
Central European countries and
neighbouring countries.
The optimistic scenario differs in the
medium-term since industry capa­
city expands and there is large-scale
innovation by generalist manufacturers which increase exports to
the rest of the world. This benefits
equipment suppliers and confirms
their world leadership position.
Table 7 Summary of the impact of the two scenarios on the industry
Less attractiveness of automotive
industry
New cars for safe and sustainable
transport
OEMs
Generalist: massive restructuring
-consolidation, hostile takeover risk
Specialist: continuing in niche
segment and export markets
Generalist: restructuring through
mergers/acquisitions and purchase
of new activities
- opportunity of joint ventures with
Asian partners
- innovation and cost strategies
- new form of cooperative
Specialist: continuing in niche
segments and export markets
Equipment
suppliers
- Major restructuring: closure and
voluntary liquidation
- Consolidation with newcomers
from emerging countries
- Hostile takeover risk
- Regrouping of major system
manufacturers through external
growth
- Creation of hierarchy of value
chain – systems, modules,
components
- Relocation of component
manufacturers
- creation of large component suppliers
Regional
-M
ajor problems for EU 15, incl.
Germany
- Temporary resistance of new
Member States
- Improvement of transport
conditions
- Specialisation in Europe around
high-innovation car design centres
- New Member States: leading
equipment manufacturing area
Jobs
- Restructuring
-M
ajor decline of car industry
activities in Europe
- Restructuring, but also creation
of jobs
- Major training needs
- Major need for qualified labour in
both EU15 and new Member States
17
Automotive industry
Graph 1 Evolution of employment in automotive industry according
to the two scenarios
+20%
+10%
Short term:
Uncertain trends
+5%
2008
level
New car
Long term:
Uncertain range
impact
-5%
-10%
Reduced
attractiveness
-20%
Source: ALPHA - Alphametrics
Implications of scenarios for jobs,
skills and knowledge by job function
The broad trends evident in the
structure of the industry across
the EU – in particular, the shift
towards the new Member States
– and in the composition of occupations, with the growth of engineering and other higher level
jobs, are likely to continue over
the next 5-10 years. This is likely
to be the case under each of the
different scenarios, though to
varying extents and with differing
18
implications for the scale of future
skill requirements.
There are unlikely to be new kinds
of job emerging as such but existing jobs will tend to change in
terms of the skills and competences required and the relative
importance attached to these. The
skills in question are likely to mean
a continuing shift in employment
towards:
Implications of scenarios for jobs, skills and knowledge by job function
• Engineers (skilled in design, the
development of driver aids and
emission controls)
• Marketing professionals (to
develop new European and
export markets)
• Business professionals and
accountants (to maintain price
competitiveness)
• Electrical mechanics (for the
increasing use of electronic
equipment and devices)
• Managers (to organise increasingly
complex operations and to locate
activities in the lowest cost places)
An increase in the numbers
employed with these skills is likely
to be a necessary condition for the
optimistic scenario to become a
reality. But this requires the industry to be sufficiently attractive to
enable companies to recruit people with the relevant skills, which
depends in turn on the prospects
for growth in the industry.
At the same time, jobs for mechanics,
tool makers and other skilled workers as well as for less skilled machine
operators on production lines are
set to decline. This is not the case in
the new Member States, to which
labour-intensive activities are likely
to be increasingly relocated.
Despite the reduction in skilled
manual jobs, companies could
still face recruitment problems
because of the need to replace the
significant number of workers due
to retire in the next few years. This
they will need to do in a context of
fewer young people entering the
labour market.
The ability of the industry to meet
prospective skill needs, therefore,
depends only partly on the ‘output’
of education and training systems
across Europe. It depends equally
on the success of measures to
attract qualified people into the
industry, on making effective use
of the existing workforce and on
ensuring that training is provided
to update and extend their skills.
19
Automotive industry
Table 7 Implications of scenarios for occupations in EU15 and
new Member States
Base scenario
Occupation
Employment in general
Growth (or Green) scenario
EU15
NMS
EU15
NMS
-
+
-
++
+
+
+
+
Production
+
+
Other
+
+
Professionals + technicians
+
+
Manager
++
++
Computer specialists
+
+
Other professionals
+
+
+
+
Engineers
+
+
Business, finance, sales
(marketing)
+
Administrative + other
-
+
Office workers
-
-
-
-
Skilled manual workers
-
-
-
-
Metal moulders
-
-
-
-
Tool makers
-
-
-
-
Mechanics
-
-
-
-
Electricians + others
+
+
+
++
Semi-skilled workers
-
++
-
++
Machine operators
-
++
-
++
Drivers
-
++
-
++
Sales + Service workers
20
Recommendations for the ‘optimistic’ scenario
Recommendations
for the ‘optimistic’ scenario
The European automotive industry has major assets which should
contribute to ensure its sustainability and growth. In the coming
years, far-reaching changes are
likely, in the short-term, in output
and employment location, in the
longer term, in skills and competencies.
The optimistic scenario is dependent
on several policies being adopted
(on innovation, regulation, transport
infrastructure and human resources).
Table 8 Main recommendations by policy area for the ‘optimistic’ scenario
Policy area
Stakeholders concerned
Examples of action
Policy
for major
innovation
Car manufacturers,
suppliers, research centres,
universities, EU authorities,
Member States
- establish better cooperation between car
manufacturers and suppliers
- develop a European Research
Programme
- provide support for Innovation clusters
and for SMEs
Coherent
regulatory
policy
EU authorities, Member
States
- pursue an integrated approach on
regulatory and trade policy
- introduce fiscal incentives harmonised
between EU countries
Infrastructure
policy
EU authorities, Member
States
-d
evelop new intelligent road systems
- promote public/private partnerships
- provide financial support for SMEs
Education,
training and
social policy
Car manufacturers,
Suppliers, education and
training institutions, EU
authorities, Member States,
Trade Unions
- make the sector more attractive to
potential recruits
- involve companies more in training and
education programmes and encourage
closer relations with schools and
universities
- special programmes for older skilled workers
- improve working conditions
- develop social observatories at territorial
and sector level
- establish effective social dialogue at
company level and promote European
Works Councils and social agreements
21
Automotive industry
Given the challenges of the coming
years with continuing restructuring
combined with the emergence of
new skills, two areas of policy are
likely to be of particular importance:
• Human resources, including continuing training
• Social dialogue
Table 9 Human resources policy – implications of the ‘’optimistic’ scenario
• A primary implication of the optimistic scenario is that there is an important need to
make the industry more attractive to potential recruits who have other career options.
• This applies in particular to university graduates in engineering and other relevant fields
of study likely to be deterred by a belief that the industry is set to decline in future years.
• It applies equally to those who have completed vocational training or who are deciding
which education or training programme to follow.
• There is a prior need to ensure that sufficient numbers acquire the skills and
competences required by the industry and that education and training systems across
the EU are equipped to teach these.
• It is, accordingly, important for companies in the industry to be involved in the provision
of education and training, to have close links with schools, technical colleges and
universities and to advise on the content of programmes.
• A similar need extends to continuing vocational training, which is essential for workers
to extend and update their skills as requirements change but which evidence suggests is
inadequate in many parts of the industry at present.
• If growth of the industry is to be achieved, there is equally a need to slow down the rate
of exit of older skilled workers given the increasing difficulties of replacing their skills as
falling numbers of young people enter the labour market.
• More consideration could also be given to the possibility of making more productive use
of older workers to help train new entrants to the industry so that they are able to pass
on their skills and know-how.
• More consideration needs equally to be given to ways of attracting more women into
the industry, who, as in the past, will represent the main source of labour force growth in
future years but who remain an under-utilised resource.
• To attract more women is likely to require changes in work organisation to
accommodate their need for flexible working arrangements so that they can balance
employment and family responsibilities.
22
Recommendations for the ‘optimistic’ scenario
Anticipation of likely future
changes in the automotive
industry is important to limit
their impact and to prevent them
adversely affecting the attractiveness of the sector to potential
recruits. The “European Partnership for anticipation in the automotive industry” is potentially an
important step forward which
could contribute to anticipation
at three levels:
• At the regional level, through
regional research centres and
competitive clusters
• At the sector level, through industry monitoring centres
• At company level, through
expanding the role of European
Works Councils and social agreements within companies
23
Where to find more information?
The following information can be found on the Europa website under the address:
http://ec.europa.eu/restructuringandjobs
The other 17 sector studies on the analysis of the sector’s evolution and future skills needs
The Restructuring in Europe report
The thematic restructuring forums
The checklist and the toolkit on restructuring processes
The training guide for SMEs
The national seminars on restructuring in 27 EU countries
Official documents related to restructuring policies