(3) Gains from Trade - WWZ

Einführung in die Volkswirtschaftslehre
(No. 10130-01), HS 11
Prof. Dr. Rolf Weder (Uni Basel), Teil I
Prof. Dr. Aymo Brunetti (Seco), Teil II
Dr. Beat Spirig (Uni Basel), Übungen
Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
Universität Basel
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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Programm (1)
Quelle: Outline
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VWL HS 11
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Programm (2)
Prüfungstermin: Montag, 9. Januar 2012, 14:30-16:30 Uhr
Quelle: Outline
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VWL HS 11
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Einführung: Die Toolbox der
Ökonomie, Vorteile der Spezialisierung
(26.09.11, Kap. 1-3)
Rolf Weder
Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
Universität Basel
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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Wirtschaftswissenschaften
• „In contrast to many other social sciences, economics has
a set of well worked out and closely related ideas that
underlie almost everything done in the field.“
• „Economics is not a particular set of questions to be
answered but a particular way of answering questions.“
• “Doing economics involves a continual balance between
unrealistic simplification and unworkable complication.“
David Friedman (1990), Price Theory. An Intermediate Text, Cincinnati: South Western Publishing Company
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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Struktur
1.
Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften
2.
Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin („Thinking Like
an Economist“)
3.
Die Gewinne durch Handel („Gains from Trade“)
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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Struktur
1.
Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften
2.
Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin („Thinking Like
an Economist“)
3.
Die Gewinne durch Handel („Gains from Trade“)
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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(1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften
• “Economics is the study of how society
manages its scarce resources.” (M/T, S. 3)
- How people make decisions
- How people interact
- How the economy works as a whole
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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(1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften
How people make decisions
1. People face trade-offs
2. The cost of something is what you give up to get it
3. Rational people think at the margin
4. People respond to incentives
How people interact
5. Trade can make everyone better off
6. Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity
7. Governments can sometimes improve market outcomes
How the economy works as a whole
8. A country’s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services
9. Prices rise when the government prints too much money
10. Society faces a short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment
Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Tabelle 1.2, S. 15
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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(1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften
How people make decisions
1. People face trade-offs
2. The cost of something is what you give up to get it
3. Rational people think at the margin
4. People respond to incentives
Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Tabelle 1.2, S. 15
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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(1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Auszug aus der Menukarte, Café Murano, Basel
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(1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften
How people interact
5. Trade can make everyone better off
6. Markets are usually a good way to organize economic
activity
7. Governments can sometimes improve market
outcomes
Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Tabelle 1.2, S. 15
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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(1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften
• „It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the
baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own
interest.”
• “Every individual (…) neither intends to promote the public interest,
nor knows how much he is promoting it. (…) He intends only his
own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an
invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his
intention.”
• “Nor is it always the worse for the society that it was no part of it.
By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the
society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it.”
Adam Smith (1776), An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, zitiert in Mankiw, Taylor (2011), S. 10
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VWL HS 11
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(1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Adam Smith
(1723-1790)
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VWL HS 11
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(1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften
How the economy works as a whole
8. A country’s standard of living depends on its ability to
produce goods and services
9. Prices rise when the government prints too much
money
10. Society faces a short-run trade-off between inflation
and unemployment
Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Tabelle 1.2, S. 15
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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(1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften
How people make decisions
1. People face trade-offs
2. The cost of something is what you give up to get it
3. Rational people think at the margin
4. People respond to incentives
How people interact
5. Trade can make everyone better off
6. Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity
7. Governments can sometimes improve market outcomes
How the economy works as a whole
8. A country’s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services
9. Prices rise when the government prints too much money
10. Society faces a short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment
Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Tabelle 1.2, S. 15
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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Struktur
1.
Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften
2.
Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin („Thinking Like
an Economist“)
3.
Die Gewinne durch Handel („Gains from Trade“)
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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(2) Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin
• The Economist as a Scientist
- Wissenschaftliche Methode
- Beobachtung  Theorie  Hypothese  Empirische Analyse 
Verallgemeinerung/Folgerung
- Annahmen und Modelle
• Beispiele (im Buch):
- Das Kreislaufmodell (Circular-Flow-Diagram)
- Die Produktionsmöglichkeitenkurve (Production Possibility
Frontier)
• Albert Einstein dazu: “Nothing more than the refinement of
everyday thinking”
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VWL HS 11
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(2) Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin
• The Economist as a Policy Advisor
- Positive versus normative Analyse
- Ökonomen an Universitäten, in Firmen, in Regierungen
und internationalen Organisationen
• Beispiele:
- Pascale: “Minimum wage laws cause unemployment”
- Sophie: “The government should raise the minimum
wage”
- …
• Why Economists disagree – tun sie es wirklich?
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VWL HS 11
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(2) Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin
• John Maynard Keynes:
- “The study of economics does not seem to require any
specialised gifts of unusually high order. Is it not (…) a very
easy subject compared with the higher branches of
philosophy or pure science? (…). The paradox finds its
explanation, perhaps, in that the master-economist must
possess a rare combination of gifts.
- He must be mathematician, historian, statesman,
philosopher – in some degree. He must understand symbols
and speak in words. (…). He must study the present in the
light of the past for the purpose of the future. (…).” (M/T, S. 40)
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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(2) Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin
• Von Theorien und Annahmen:
- “All theory depends on assumptions which are not quite
true. That is what makes it a theory. The art of successful
theorizing is to make the inevitable simplifying
assumptions in such a way that the final results are not
very sensitive. A ‘crucial’ assumption is one on which the
conclusions do depend sensitively, and it is important that
crucial assumptions be reasonably realistic. When the
results of a theory seem to flow specifically from a special
crucial assumption, then if the assumption is dubious, the
results are suspect” (Solow, Robert (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Growth”,
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 1, S. 65)
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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(2) Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin
• Richtig?
- “Plenty of economic models try to explain the
economic effects of migration. However, none of the
models is able to perfectly model the real life, since
they work only under restricted circumstances and
assumptions. Therefore, empirical evidences are
essential for further investigating the real effects of
immigration on the economy of the receiving
countries.” (Verfasserin einer Masterarbeit im Jahre 2010 in einem interdisziplinären Master).
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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Struktur
1.
Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften
2.
Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin („Thinking Like
an Economist“)
3.
Die Gewinne durch Handel („Gains from Trade“)
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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(3) Gains from Trade
• Das Modell (“A Parable for the Modern Economy”)
- 2 Güter (Meat, Potatoes)
- 2 Individuen (Farmer, Gardener)
- Individuen können beide Güter produzieren und wollen
vor allem konsumieren
• Vorgehen (typisch):
-
Produktion und Konsum ohne Austausch bzw. Handel
Produktion und Konsum bei Austausch bzw. Handel
Vergleich der beiden Ergebnisse
Verallgemeinerung der Erkenntnisse
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VWL HS 11
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(3) Gains from Trade
Beschreibung der Produktionsmöglichkeiten:
Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Tabelle 3.1., S. 53
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(3) Gains from Trade
Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Figur 3.1., S. 54
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(3) Gains from Trade
Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Tabelle 3.3., S. 58
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(3) Gains from Trade
Ziel: Konsum von 27 kg
Potatoes (=27P).
Frage: wie kann dieses
Ziel erreicht werden?
Direkt: - 1.5M
+ 3P
Handel: ?
Mankiw, Taylor (2011), S. 54
© Rolf Weder
Preisannahme: 1M = 3P
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(3) Gains from Trade
Ziel: Konsum von 27 kg
Potatoes (=27P).
Frage: wie kann dieses
Ziel erreicht werden?
Handel: (z.B.)
∆ Produktion: +6M
Import:
Mankiw, Taylor (2011), S. 54
© Rolf Weder
- 12P
+15P
Export:
- 5M
∆ Konsum:
+1M
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+ 3P
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(3) Gains from Trade
Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Figur 3.2., S. 56
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VWL HS 11
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(3) Gains from Trade
Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Figur 3.2., S. 56
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VWL HS 11
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(3) Gains from Trade
Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Figur 3.2., S. 56
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VWL HS 11
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(3) Gains from Trade
Handel: (z.B.)
∆ Produktion: - 4M
Export:
+ 16P
- 15P
Import:
+ 5M
∆ Konsum:
+1M
+ 1P
Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Figur 3.2., S. 56
© Rolf Weder
VWL HS 11
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(3) Gains from Trade
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VWL HS 11
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(3) Gains from Trade
Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Tabelle 3.2., S. 56
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VWL HS 11
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(3) Gains from Trade
• Schlussbetrachtung
- Wer hat wo absolute, wer wo komparative Vorteile?
- Vorteil des Handels für Farmer, Vorteil für Gardener?
- Von was hängt die Höhe des Gewinnes ab?
- Anwendungen dieses Konzeptes bzw. dieses Modells?
- David Beckham, Ingvar Kamprad (IKEA)
- Länder (z.B. USA-China, Deutschland-Japan)
- Afghanistan im Opiumhandel
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VWL HS 11
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(3) Gains from Trade
• Absolute Vorteile als Basis für die Spezialisierung: Adam Smith
(1776), Wealth of Nations.
• Komparative Vorteile als Basis für die Spezialisierung: David
Ricardo (1817), Principles of Political Economy and Taxation.
•David Ricardo (1772-1823)
Wer erklärte den Handel zwischen Ländern?
• Aber: Goeffrey Brennan and James M. Buchanan (1986) in ihrem
Buch The Reason of Rules: „(…) the rules that coordinate the
actions of individuals are important (…).“ (p. 1)
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