TITLE OF THE PRESENTATION
Transcription
TITLE OF THE PRESENTATION
Paving the way for growth with continued focus on financial discipline (as of March 2015) Forward Looking Statement This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US federal securities laws. Especially all of the following statements > > > > Projections of revenues, income, earnings per share, capital expenditures, dividends, capital structure or other financial items Statements of plans or objectives for future operations or of future competitive position Expectations of future economic performance; and Statements of assumptions underlying several of the foregoing types of statements are forward-looking statements. Also words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “may”, “will”, “expect”, “plan”, “project”, “should” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements reflect the judgment of RWE’s management based on factors currently known to it. No assurances can be given that these forward-looking statements will prove accurate and correct, or that anticipated, projected future results will be achieved. All forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, changes in general economic and social environment, business, political and legal conditions, fluctuating currency exchange rates and interest rates, price and sales risks associated with a market environment in the throes of deregulation and subject to intense competition, changes in the price and availability of raw materials, risks associated with energy trading (e.g. risks of loss in the case of unexpected, extreme market price fluctuations and credit risks resulting in the event that trading partners do not meet their contractual obligations), actions by competitors, application of new or changed accounting standards or other government agency regulations, changes in, or the failure to comply with, laws or regulations, particularly those affecting the environment and water quality (e.g. introduction of a price regulation system for the use of power grid, creating a regulation agency for electricity and gas or introduction of trading in greenhouse gas emissions), changing governmental policies and regulatory actions with respect to the acquisition, disposal, depreciation and amortisation of assets and facilities, operation and construction of plant facilities, production disruption or interruption due to accidents or other unforeseen events, delays in the construction of facilities, the inability to obtain or to obtain on acceptable terms necessary regulatory approvals regarding future transactions, the inability to integrate successfully new companies within the RWE Group to realise synergies from such integration and finally potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations and potential liability resulting from pending or future litigation. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made. RWE neither intends to nor assumes any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. For additional information regarding risks, investors are referred to RWE’s latest annual report and to other most recent reports filed with Frankfurt Stock Exchange and to all additional information published on RWE’s Internet web site. 2 RWE – an attractive value proposition Attractive portfolio Stable financials > Pure utility play with leading market position and regionally focused strategy > Progress in strengthening balance sheet > Balanced asset portfolio with strong downstream presence > Highly cost-efficient and modernised power plant portfolio > Streamlined and disciplined investment approach > Cash flows from operating activities to cover investments and dividends > CO2 neutral position > Further efficiency enhancements and operational excellence > Focused growth initiatives in new energy market opportunities > New dividend policy: Focus on sustainability and continuity Earnings outlook for 2015: EBITDA €6.1 – 6.4 bn; operating result €3.6 – 3.9 bn; recurrent net income c. €1.1 – 1.3 bn 3 Main messages 2014 financial performance partly better than expected: EBITDA €7.1 bn; operating results €4.0 bn; recurrent net income €1.3 bn Successful divestment of RWE Dea for an EV of €5.1bn Adoption of new dividend policy: from 2015 onwards, the dividend proposal will be oriented towards RWE’s operating cash flows, indebtedness and earnings position UK capacity market clears at £19.4/kW (2012 prices); RWE has been awarded capacity agreements for 8 GW of generation capacity Partnership solutions: recent transactions include sale of 85% stake in Nordsee One, 2 and 3 offshore wind projects, sale of 50% stake in Triton Knoll offshore wind project and disposal of another 15% in Czech gas distribution grid Outlook 2015: EBITDA €6.1 – 6.4 bn; operating results €3.6 – 3.9 bn; recurrent net income €1.1 – 1.3 bn 4 On our way to financial robustness as base for longterm growth What we have achieved so far > Establishment of European generation business to drive cost efficiencies and portfolio measures > First two waves of efficiency programme delivered ahead of time > Positive cash balance achieved ahead of time > Successful disposal of RWE Dea for an EV of €5.1 bn > Improvement of net debt position > Reduction of capex level on plan What we are focusing on 1 Identification and fostering of growth areas 2 Review of set-up of conventional power generation portfolio 3 Third wave of efficiency programme 4 Financial discipline with regards to investments 5 1 Areas of growth Changing energy market offers growth potential Renewables > Focus on on- and offshore wind > ~ €1 bn in growth capex (2015-2017) > Partnering solutions will diversify risks and leverage project pipeline > Double digit compound annual earnings growth rate over the next three years secured Grids > Best in class grid management > Investments of > €3 bn between 2015 and 2017 > Additional growth potential from smart technologies > Single digit earnings growth possible longer term Retail > Strong Pan European Retail organisation with 23m customers > Decentralised energy market models as opportunity > Innovation: growth catalyst for new products and services > Single digit earnings growth rate mid term envisaged 6 2 Generation review Increased earnings pressure on conventional power generation As of March 20141 OR > WACC3 As of January 20152 c. > 50% – 60% c. > 25% – 35% Optimisation OR > 0 c. > 60% – 70% FCF3 > 0 c. > 70% – 80% Market decline c. > 40% – 50% c.>> 55% – 65% 1 Rough profitability analysis for 2014 to 2016 in % of installed capacity of RWE’s conventional power generation portfolio in Germany, UK and NL (average c. 41 GW) based on market parameters as of October 2013. 2 Rough profitability analysis for 2015 to 2019 in % of installed capacity of RWE’s conventional power generation portfolio in Germany, UK and NL (average c. 41 GW) based on market parameters as of November 2014. 3 OR = operating result; WACC = weighted average cost of capital pre tax; FCF = free cash flow = revenue – cash costs. 7 2 Generation review Conventional Power Generation: mark-to-market free cash flow neutral € billion 3.3 3.0 2.0 Mark-to-market (m-t-m)1 1.0 1.0 OR m-t-m Efficiencies before 2012-2017 efficiencies 0.0 -1.0 2012 2014 Operating result (OR) Depreciation EBITDA Other Day-to-day cash flow capex 2 effects Free cash flow 1 Mark-to-market as of January 2015 at market prices of around €32/MWh for German base load forwards and anticipating the expiry of the nuclear fuel tax. 2 Changes in provisions, funds from operations financial income and tax, changes in working capital. 8 2 Generation review Overview of capacity measures Measure Plant Decommissioning Amer 8 Goldenbergwerk Westfalen C2 Gersteinwerk K2 Claus C Moerdijk 2 Gersteinwerk F Gersteinwerk G Weisweiler H Weisweiler G Mid-size units Emsland B4 Emsland C4 Confidential Long-term mothballing3 Summer mothballing Termination of contracts Total MW1 610 110 285 610 1,300 430 355 355 270 270 35 360 360 2,960 Fuel Hard coal Lignite Hard coal Hard coal Gas Gas Gas – steam turbine Gas – steam turbine Topping gas turbine Topping gas turbine Gas Gas – steam turbine Gas – steam turbine Hard coal Location NL DE DE DE NL NL DE DE DE DE NL DE DE DE Date Q1-2016 Q3-2015 Q1-2016 Q1-2017 Q3-2014 Q4-2013 Q3-2013 Q2-2014 Q3-2013 Q3-2013 Q1-2013 Q2-2014 Q2-2014 Q4-2013 – Q2-2015 8,310 MW 1 Net nominal capacity, rounded 2 Summer mothballing between April and September 2015 3 In times of market tightness mothballed plants might return temporarily to the system 4 Continuous operation decided for 2015 9 3 Efficiency programme Efficiency programme ahead of schedule, additional measures contribute another €500 million Net benefit to operating result Net benefit by division € million 400 ~ 10% Holding and cross divisional effects ~ 50% Generation 100 100 ~ 10% Trading/ Gas Midstream 400 ~ €2 bn by 2017 800 200 2012 ~ 30% Supply/Distribution 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 10 3 Efficiency programme Next wave of efficiencies entails a wide range of performance measures Additional measures focus on cost reduction and cash flow optimisation Costs > Implementation of lean programme and improved end-to-end processes > Consolidation of IT landscape > Reduction of costs of external service providers > Streamlining of organisational and legal structures: reduction of management levels and number of legal entities > Reduction of personnel costs through internal job market, lower travel costs, improved performance management Cash > Optimisation of working capital should contribute c. €1.5 bn to debt reduction by 2016, of which c. 50% already achieved by 2014 > Special focus on cash-optimising procurement process > Further integration of working capital measures in target setting and incentive process 11 3 Efficiency programme Development of total controllable costs (TCC) Continuous reduction of TCC (nominal values) €10.8 bn €10.1 bn 0.5 0.2 €8.7 bn 0.4 ~ €8.5 bn 1.0 0.1 5.5 0.1 4.9 3.9 3.9 5.3 5.2 4.8 4.6 2012 2013 2014 2017e Personnel costs Other TCC Operational cost improvement Portfolio and other effects 12 4 Financial discipline Capex programme reduced to maintenance level Further growth projects have to be financed debt-neutral, e.g. by the disposal of other assets or partnering solutions € billion > Approx. €6.5 – 7.0 bn capex programme for 2015 – 2017: ~ 1.5 – 2.0 Conventional power generation ~ €1.5 – 2.0 bn for major projects ~ 6.5 – 7.0 ~ 1.0 Renewables ~ 3.3 Distribution networks ~ €5.0 bn for day-to-day incl. grids > Completion of new-build power plant programme ~ 0.7 Retail > Completion of large offshore wind farm projects in 2015 5.1 4.5 3.2 ~ 2.5 – 3.0 4.4 3.8 0.7 0.7 2012 2013 2014 2015e ~ 2.0 ~ 2.0 2016e 2017e RWE Dea 13 4 Financial discipline Positive cash balance reached 1 year ahead of plan Cash flows from operating activities to cover investments and dividends € billion -2.7 -0.7 +1.1 <0 >0 ≥ ≤ 2015e 2016e Cash balance 7.1 5.5 4.4 2012 5.6 4.8 20131 4.5 20141 Capex in property, plant & equipment and financial assets (according to cash flow statement) Dividends (incl. minority payments; year of payment) Cash flows from operating activities 1 From continuing operations (excluding RWE Dea). 14 4 Financial discipline Excellent access to the capital market is key to us Significant reduction of net financial debt € billion Achievements > Strong decrease of net 29.9 financial debt 3.5x > Net financial debt/ EBITDA <1x (2015e) > Ample liquidity after Dea sale 16.9 Financial policy 13.0 > Access to the capital market at all times through… − keeping solid investment grade rating − first funding of provisions − targeting ongoing positive cash balance 2011 33.0 30.7 31.03 < 2014 Net debt 3.5x 3.5x2 3.8x2 > 2014 Leverage factor1 19.9 20.6 19.6 Financial assets earmarked to cover already >10% of provisions 13.1 11.1 2012 2013 Net financial debt incl. 50% of hybrids 9.3 2014 Dea sale 2015e Pension, mining and nuclear provisions 1 Leverage factor (Net financial debt (incl. 50% of hybrids) + pension, mining and nuclear provisions)/EBITDA. 2 Pro-forma leverage factor including the EBITDA of RWE Dea, as reported net debt still includes RWE Dea. 3 Including €1.1 bn net debt from discontinued operations (= RWE Dea). 15 Outlook for 2015 € million EBITDA Operating result Recurrent net income Dividend 7,131 6,100 – 6,400 4,017 1,282 €1.00/share1 2014 reported 3,600 – 3,900 1,100 – 1,300 Oriented towards growth opportunities, indebtedness and earnings situation. The dividend for 2014 serves as a reference point. 2015e2 1 Executive and Supervisory Board propose to the AGM on 23.04.2015 a dividend of €1 per share for fiscal year 2014. 2 The outlook considers the current status of the nuclear fuel tax law. In case nuclear fuel tax is declared finally illegal and fully in our favour, we expect a positive earnings contribution of c. €1.6 bn to EBITDA and operating result and c. €1.1 bn to net income. RWE Dea: In 2014 and 2015 RWE Dea is not included in EBITDA and operating result. The recurrent net income includes the pro rata interest on the sale price. 16 Dividend policy reflects whole economic situation Dividend of the preceding year serves as a reference point for the dividend proposal Earnings situation Dividend Growth opportunities Leverage and cash flow situation 17 Back-up charts RWE’s mid-term business profile drivers GENERATION TRADING > Selective growth in renewable energy > Partnership solutions to reduce development risks > Restructure conventional power generation (“no profit or cash burning”) > Upside potential from market recovery of conventional power markets (e.g. new market design or recovery of commodities) > Ongoing focus on value extraction in commercial asset optimisation > Develop growth opportunities in new trading markets > Additional value contribution from principal investment projects > Commercial settlement with Gazprom; no further losses until May 2016 > Ongoing losses from longterm contracted gas storage capacities DISTRIBUTION > GER: Stable regulatory environment for the next regulatory period Electricity: 2014 – 18 Gas: 2013 – 17 – Growth potential from integration of decentralised generation units & smart technologies – Focus on performance > CEE/SEE: Aim to stabilise regulated earnings – CZ: Discussion on next regulatory period (2015) – HU: Political pressure on returns SUPPLY > Focus on value enhancing products and services > Innovation as growth catalyst > Increasing pressure on sales margins > Value oriented customer service > Smart markets: – Decentralised CHP/services – Energy efficiency > Growth by leveraging sales know-how across mature and new markets High portion of earnings from stable regulated businesses (German and CEE/SEE networks; renewables) Integrated utility along the value chain with focus on core markets within Europe 19 More customers will produce self-generated power and will be enabled to manage their consumption Changing energy landscape Trends in retail markets Household customer » Increase in decentral energy production from household customers Virtual power plants » Higher incentivisation of “prosumers” to maximise own consumption » Rising penetration of home automation systems enables households to manage their energy needs Business customer Electricity production Gas production Surplus marketing » Electricity production on-site becomes increasingly attractive for business customers which leads to higher volumes of own production of power, gas or heat Heat production 20 RWE in European downstream markets Market share 2014 Sales to end-customers and redistributors Germany 11% Netherlands/ Belgium 11% UK 211 34% 23% Germany Central and Eastern Europe2 Netherlands UK Czech Republic Slovakia Σ = 15,958 6,693 3,387 2,176 14% 24% Belgium 119 RWE’s electricity customers3 by country [‘000] Netherlands/ 10% Belgium UK 1,397 1,290 Market share 2014 Sales to end-customers and redistributors Germany 2,169 1,969 5% Central and Eastern Europe1 Σ = 7,155 RWE’s gas customers3 by country [‘000] 2,116 895 328 Germany Netherlands Belgium UK Hungary Poland 265 98 Czech Croatia Republic 1 Central and Eastern Europe: Czech Republic and Slovakia 2 Central and Eastern Europe: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Croatia 3 Residential and commercial customers 21 2015 divisional outlook for the operating result € million 2014 2015 forecast versus 2014 979 Significantly below 2014 1,871 Moderately below 2014 Supply NL/B 146 Significantly above 2014 Supply UK 227 Moderately above 2014 Central Eastern and South Eastern Europe 690 Moderately below 2014 Renewables 186 Significantly above 2014 Trading/Gas Midstream 274 Moderately below 2014 Conventional Power Generation1 Supply/Distribution Networks Germany 1 The outlook considers the current status of the nuclear fuel tax law. 22 Operating result outlook for fiscal year 2015 Trend for major value drivers in fiscal year 2015 Depreciation Lower depreciation as 2014 includes impairments Electricity generation margins (D;NL;UK); volumes, prices and spreads Lower realised generation spreads Weather effect c. €100 million envisaged for 2015 Normalised weather conditions assumed Growth in renewables Efficiency programme €4.0 bn Operating result (OR) 2014 Commissioning of new generation capacity and absence of impairments recorded in 2014 (see comment depreciation above) Other Among others: book gains from grid sales in 2014; impact from change in provisions OR fiscal year 2015 outlook €3.6 – 3.9 bn 23 RWE’s forward hedging of conventional electricity production (German, Dutch and UK portfolio) As of 31 December 2014 >40% >10% >40% >20% >50% >30% >60% >40% >60% >50% >80% >60% >90% >70% >90% >70% 31 March 2014 30 June 2014 30 Sep. 2014 31 Dec 2014 -3 -0 2016 forward 2015 forward >30% >10% 31 Dec. 2012 31 March 2013 30 June 2013 30 Sep. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 >30% >20% >40% >10% >40% >10% >60% >10% >60% >20% 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 30 June 2014 30 Sep. 2014 31 Dec. 2014 -18 -15 -12 2017 forward >30% <10% 31 Dec. 2014 -24 -21 -9 -6 Months before delivery of forward contract Outright, electricity hedged incl. CO2 (GER nuclear and lignite based power generation) Spread, electricity and underlying commodity hedged incl. CO2 (GER, UK and NL/B hard coal and gas based power generation) 24 RWE successfully qualified approx. 8 GW for the UK capacity market MW1 Plant type Aberthaw 1,486 Coal/OCGT Didcot B 1,364 CCGT Great Yarmouth 361 CCGT Little Barford 683 CCGT Pembroke 2,090 CCGT Staythorpe 1,633 CCGT Plant Miscellaneous smaller units 395 CHP/OCGT/CCGT 8,012 1 De-rated power plant capacity, i.e. capacity which effectively can participate in the auction process. Different from net generation capacity. > First UK capacity auction for winter 2018/19 settled at £19.40/kW (2012 money). > The result was broadly in line with our expectations. > Capacity Market will provide the necessary support for plants required for system security and prices in future will need to remunerate the marginal MW on the system. > RWE has a total of 8,012 MW of capacity that will receive the capacity payments, equivalent to £155 million in 2012 money. 25 Germany: Clean Dark (CDS) and Spark Spreads (CSS) 2014 forward 2015 forward 2016 forward 16 12 Ø 7.86 8 Ø 5.78 Ø 4.14 4 0 -4 -8 Ø -11.63 Ø -8.74 Ø -13.11 -12 CDS Cal 2014–16 base load (€/MWh) (assumed thermal efficiency: 36%) 1O ct -1 5 1Ju l- 1 5 Trading year 2015 1Ap r-1 5 1Ja n15 1O ct -1 4 1Ju l- 1 4 Trading year 2014 1Ap r-1 4 1O ct -1 3 1Ju l- 1 3 1Ap r-1 3 1Ja n13 Trading year 2013 1Ja n14 -16 CSS Cal 2014–16 peak load (€/MWh) (assumed thermal efficiency: 49%) Source: RWE Supply & Trading, prices through to 02 March 2015 26 NL: Clean Dark (CDS) and Spark Spreads (CSS) 2014 forward1 2015 forward1 2016 forward1 20 15 Ø 11.43 Ø 9.47 10 Ø 9.10 5 0 Ø -7.46 -5 Ø -7.27 -10 Ø -7.52 -15 CDS Cal 2014–16 base load (€/MWh) (assumed thermal efficiency: 37%) 1O ct -1 5 1Ju l- 1 5 Trading year 2015 1Ap r-1 5 1Ja n15 1O ct -1 4 1Ju l- 1 4 Trading year 2014 1Ap r-1 4 1Ja n14 1O ct -1 3 1Ju l- 1 3 Trading year 2013 1Ap r-1 3 1Ja n13 -20 CSS Cal 2014–16 base load (€/MWh) (assumed thermal efficiency: 49%) 1 CDS: Including coal tax. Source: RWE Supply & Trading, prices through to 02 March 2015 27 UK: Clean Dark (CDS) and Spark Spreads (CSS) 2014 forward1 2015 forward1 2016 forward1 28 Ø 22.49 24 20 Ø 16.96 16 12 Ø 11.49 8 Ø 3.67 Ø 2.03 Ø 4.99 4 CDS Cal 2014–16 base load (€/MWh) (assumed thermal efficiency: 36%) 4O ct -1 5 4Ju l- 1 5 Trading year 2015 4Ap r-1 5 4Ja n15 4O ct -1 4 4Ju l- 1 4 Trading year 2014 4Ap r-1 4 4Ja n14 4O ct -1 3 4Ju l- 1 3 Trading year 2013 4Ap r-1 3 4Ja n13 0 CSS Cal 2014–16 base load (€/MWh) (assumed thermal efficiency: 49%) 1 Including UK carbon tax. Source: RWE Supply & Trading, prices through to 02 March 2015 28 Development of net debt € billion Cash flows from operating activities1 Capex on property, plant and equipment and intangible assets and financial assets1 Dividends1 Divestments1 30.7 Change in pension, nuclear, mining provisions1 Others including f/x effects, deconsolidations and change of net debt from discontinued operations (DCO) 31.0 +1.6 +1.1 +3.4 +0.8 -1.0 No “DCOrestatement” of FY 2013 -5.6 Of which € 1.1 bn from DCO Effect from positive cash balance: -1.1 Net debt 31st Dec 2013 Net debt 31st Dec 2014 1 From continuing operations. 29 Capital market debt maturities and sources of financing Capital market debt maturities1 Strong sources of financing € billion 2.5 2,5 20 2.0 2,0 16 16 1.5 1,5 12 Fully committed syndicated loan (€4.0 bn up to March 2020) €0.0 bn Commercial paper (up to 1 year) 1,0 1.0 For liquidity back-up $0.0 bn ($5.0 bn) 88 €0.0 bn (31 December 2014) Maturities of debt issued 2045 2042 2039 2036 2033 2030 2027 2024 00 2021 0,0 0.0 2018 44 2015 0,5 0.5 MTN programme (up to 30 years) Hybrid (first call date) €30 bn €14.0 bn (31 December 2014)2 Accumulated outstanding debt (incl. hybrid) Balanced profile with limited maturities up to end of 2015 (~ €3.75 billion) 1 RWE AG and RWE Finance B.V. as of 31 December 2014. 2 Bonds outstanding under the MTN-programme, i.e. excluding hybrids. Including hybrids: €17.9 bn. 30 RWE’s major investment projects RWE share Capex (€ bn) 2013 77% 2.5 Unit E (764 MW) 100% 3.1 Gwynt y Môr (offshore wind, 576 MW) 60%2 2.43 Nordsee Ost (offshore wind, 295 MW) 100% 1.4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Conventional new build power plant programme (capex at 100% share) Hamm (hard coal, 1,528 MW)1 Eemshaven (hard coal/biomass, 1,554 MW) Units A&B 1 The date for bringing unit D (764 MW) into operation is pending. RWE Innogy: major projects under construction (capex at 100% share) 2 Sale of 10% to Green Investment Bank (GIB) envisaged in 2015. 3 After sale of transmission assets in February 2015. 31 The fuel mix of European electricity generators 2013 RWE has one of the most balanced generation portfolios of European electricity generators (installed capacity) 100% 80% 60% Hydro/ Other 40% Gas Hard Coal 20% Lignite Nuclear 0% Centrica CEZ EDF Enel E.On GDF Iberdrola RWE SSE Share in power plant capacity of own generation by fuel type. Source: Annual reports 2013, company presentations, RWE. 32 The fuel mix of European electricity generators 2013 RWE has one of the most balanced generation portfolios of European electricity generators (generation output) 100% 80% 60% Hydro/ Other 40% Gas Hard Coal 20% Lignite Nuclear 0% Centrica CEZ EDF Enel E.On GDF Iberdrola RWE SSE Share in electricity generation of own generation by fuel type. Source: Annual reports 2013, company presentations, RWE. 33 Keep up with RWE … Follow us on twitter.com/RWE_IR and have a look at www.rwe.com/ir Financial calendar http://www.rwe.com/web/cms/en/110614/rwe/investor-relations/events/calendar/ Annual and Interim Reports http://www.rwe.com/web/cms/en/110822/rwe/investor-relations/reports/ Investor and Analyst Conferences http://www.rwe.com/web/cms/en/1460144/rwe/investor-relations/events/investor-and-analyst-conferences/ Facts & Figures – The Guide to RWE and the Utility Sector – as well as further factbooks http://www.rwe.com/web/cms/en/2495606/rwe/investor-relations/presentations-videos/presentations/ Consensus of analysts’ estimates of RWE‘s key performance indicators http://www.rwe.com/web/cms/en/345802/rwe/investor-relations/shares/analyst-consensus-estimates/ IR videos and presentations http://www.rwe.com/web/cms/en/2701466/rwe/investor-relations/presentations-videos/videos/videos-2015/ 34