Michael Colijn - Strom erzeugende Heizung

Transcription

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Michael Colijn
Project Development & Strategic Advice
Energy Economics Environment
ASUE Conference 23. Nov 2005
MicroCHP – The Magic Boiler
European Context on Developments & Changes
© Michael Colijn Ltd 2005
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Contents
¾ Was ist Mikro-KWK?
¾ Vorteile
¾ Marktgröße
¾ Mikro-KWK - Wahrheiten
¾ Projekte
¾ Conclusion
Michael Colijn
ASUE microCHP in an EU context 2005.11.23
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Fundamentals:
Micro-generation
¾ MicroCHP is the combined production of
heat and power
¾It is no more than an electricity producing boiler
¾The electrical side requires attention
¾ Therefore, a maximum 15 kWe in the
household environment is a useful
definition for microCHP
¾Wires in the house do not need changing
¾Simple installation procedures
¾Heat Side modulates
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Fundamentals:
MicroCHP – Three Basic Parts
Recuperator
Boiler &
peripherals
Generator
CONTROLS
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Fundamentals:
Micro-generation
¾ Even by distributed
generation standards, each
generator is very small
¾ The ‘generator owners’ are
the public
¾ Generation at the point of
use
¾ Market potential is high –
particularly for micro-CHP
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Benefits:
Government
¾ Primary Energy Saving
¾ Lower primary energy consumption
¾ Lower transmission losses
¾ Emissions Reductions
¾ Gas consumption has low carbon value
¾ Waste heat used more efficiently
¾ At least 1 tonne of CO2 emissions reduced per unit per year
¾ Infrastructure
¾ Diversity of supply: better security & reliability
¾ Helps defer investment costs
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Benefits:
Home-Owner
¾ Own Power Station
¾ Sense of independence
¾ Potential to run even during power cut
¾ Reduced Energy Bill
¾ Annual reduction about €225
¾ Mostly through avoided kWh-purchase
¾ Environment
¾ Contributes to efficient energy use
¾ Without reduction in quality of life
¾ Sensible, economic investment
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Benefits:
Energy Company
¾ Customer Relationship
¾ Tie in customer with services contract
¾ Offer, new, innovative product
¾ Clean Energy Contribution
¾ Emissions reductions programme
¾ Enhanced Security of Supply
¾ Generating Capacity
¾ Long term build up of extra production
¾ Helps ease Europe’s 200 GW capacity deficit
¾ Paid for by end-user
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The Opportunity:
Market Potential
¾ The central heating market is huge
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Germany
Italy
Rest of Europe
400,000 per year
1,300,000 per year
600,000 per year
500,000 per year
>1,000,000 per year
¾ MicroCHP can directly replace the existing central
heating appliance
¾ At least 1 in 4 boilers can be replaced with a Magic Boiler
¾ This implies a potential market of at least 500,000 Magic Boilers per
year in the EU
¾ Total potential is 40 million microCHP [EU 15]
¾ Winter period for microCHP to be economic
¾ heating season 4-5 months or more
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The Opportunity:
Market Framework
Cumulative microCHP Market Volumes
1,800
1,600
Volume
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2005
2006
Base case volumes
2007
2008
5% VAT Volumes
2009
2010
Package of incentives
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The Opportunity:
Stimuli for Growth
¾Grid Connection
¾Meter Installation & Metering
¾Upfront Support
¾kWh feed-in fee
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Grid Connection:
Case Situation
¾ Central Heating System breaks down
¾ A replacement is required in 24 hours
¾ MicroCHP is placed in the home
¾ Before it is connected it needs:
¾ ENS
¾ Permission Network Company
¾ Annualized Efficiency Calculation
¾ Can be improved with:
¾ Standard connection requirements
¾ Type approval of microCHP
¾ Installer check & OK for switching on [“Inform & Fit”]
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Grid Connection:
Overview
Country
Fit &
Obligation Right to
Inform to Connect feed in
Permission
Needed
Easy In
Practice
Germany
Yes*
Yes
Yes
Yes
No*
Italia
Yes*
Yes
No
Yes
No
Nederland
Yes*
No
No
Yes
Yes
UK
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
* Pending European connection Standard PrEN 50438
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Meter Installation:
Overview
Own
Meter
Country
MicroCHP
Team
Install
Same
day
Network
Permission
Needed
Current
Meter
suitable
Germany
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes*
Italia
No
No
No
Yes
Yes*
Nederland
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes*
UK
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes*
* Feraris meter runs backwards / digital meter is an alternative
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Upfront Support:
Overview
Country
Level
Playing Field
Lower
VAT
Structural
Support
Project support
[municipal]
Germany
No
No
Yes
Yes
Italia
No
No
No
Yes
Nederland
No
No
No
Yes
UK
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
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kWh Pricing:
Overview
Country
Registration Minimum
Fee
price
Guarantee
kWh
Support
Network kWh
buy-back
Germany
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Italia
No
No
No
No
Nederland
Yes
No
No
No
UK
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
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Changes Required:
Why is Change so Slow?
¾Government Decision Making
¾ Not yet enough evidence / information
¾Lobby from Energy Companies
¾ Afraid of decentralized power
¾Where are the MicroCHP’s?
¾ “Launching next Year” Syndrome
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Changes Required:
Governments
¾Decisions are made slowly
¾ Industry partners giving conflicting statements
¾ Need evidence of industry existence
¾ Need evidence of benefits
¾So what are the issues for the
Energy companies?
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Changes Required:
Energy Companies
¾False fears:
¾ MicroCHP is unpredictable
¾ The network can’t handle the large quantities of
electricity from “the bottom up”
¾ The technology is unproven
¾True fear:
¾ Network income will decrease over time
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MicroCHP Truths:
MicroCHP is Predictable
Effect of a microCHP unit on average domestic
electricity demand – winter weekday
2
Import (kW
1.5
Old profile
1
0.5
New profile
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
-0.5
Time
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MicroCHP Truths:
MicroCHP Power Goes Next Door
¾ A 1 kWe electric microCHP
Generates 2500 kWh of electricity per year
80% is used in the home
So only 500 kWh are exported per year
This is LESS than 2 kWh per day
¾ Even with 20% growth year-onyear
¾ No threat of burdening the electricity grid
Grid
LOADS
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾ Intelligent Technology available
¾ As network is updated, intelligent transformers
installed
¾ Upgrade electricity from low voltage, at no
extra cost
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MicroCHP Truths:
MicroCHP has proven itself
¾36 developers of microCHP globally
¾ Stirling, Steamcells, Gas engines, Gas turbines, fuel cells
¾5 have been selling for years
¾ Gas engines [Ecopower, Senertech, Honda]
¾ Stirling [Whisper Tech]
¾ Steamcell [Otag]
¾More are very promising
¾
¾
¾
¾
Stirling [Enatec, Microgen, Stirling Systems, etc]
Steamcell [Enginion]
Gas turbines [Azimuth]
Fuel Cells [Nedstack]
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MicroCHP Truths:
Network Company Income
¾One real fear is reduced network
income
¾ Over time income for network companies will reduce
¾ Unless current model of income generation is changed
¾Current business model invoices per
delivered kWh
¾ MicroCHP industry needs to work with network industry
¾ Develop model to fixed cost per connection
¾ Gradual change required to allow microCHP smooth
market entry
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MicroCHP Truths:
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
MicroCHP units cumulative [1kWe]
1,000
2,000
4,000
8,000
16,000
32,000
64,000
128,000
256,000
Electricity generated [MWh]
2,500
5,000
10,000
20,000
40,000
80,000
160,000
320,000
640,000
Value of transport fee [EU 0.04 /
kWh]
€ 100,000
€ 200,000
€ 400,000
€ 800,000
€ 1,600,000
€ 3,200,000
€ 6,400,000
€ 12,800,000
€ 25,600,000
¾Need to adjust Network Income over
time
¾ Start changing the transport part for fixed income
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MicroCHP Truths:
¾Discussion to start now
Income [Euro]
¾ Prevents aversion to decentralised power with big
Energy Companies
¾ Example model to form the basis of discussion
¾ Use benefits of microCHP as the basis, i.e. deferred
network investment, to postpone fixed income model
Transport component
Fixed Component
Time Æ
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Real World Projects
¾High Number of High Profile Projects
now in place – Big & Small together
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
Honda in Japan >20,000 units placed
Senertech in Germany > 10,000 units placed
Whispergen started installing 80,000 project
Microgen – 1st unit placed in Dutch home
Otag – sold out 1st year production
Enatec – delivered 1st Stirling to Dutch Economics
Minster
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Real World Projects:
Gasunie Netherlands [50 units]
¾ Electricity consumption in the
house 50% - 80% [~70%]
¾Production just over 2000 kWh
¾Demand curves coincide
¾For 1 location gas consumption
did NOT increase
¾Long, two hour cycles through a 150 liter
buffer
¾2 locations 7 kWth sufficient at –
20° C
¾Floor heating systems
¾WhisperGen ran continuously
¾No stops / starts
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Technical Findings
¾Controller
¾Standard = better;
¾wireless – potential extra work
¾Burner
¾Adjust to local gas pressures & type
¾Buffer
¾Better larger
¾Than too small [i.e. >100 l]
¾Floor Heating
¾Very good for the performance of the microCHP
¾Corrosion
¾Clean existing radiator systems
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Management
¾Customer Expectations
¾ Clear definition of activities BEFOREHAND
¾ Excellent service organisation to step in when needed
¾Training of Installation Staff
¾ Gas and electricity certificates needed
¾ Assure correct equipment & procedures in place
¾ Double check after work done
¾Suitable Properties only
¾ Heat demand to fit heat capacity of unit
¾ Assess carefully accessibility of location & space
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Conclusion
¾MicroCHP is finally coming to market
¾ First projects to be managed carefully
¾ MicroCHP will contribute significantly to production
potential and emissions reductions in the EU
¾Industry now coming together for
manufacturing
¾ Next two years will see big investments and big
production volumes starting
¾ Government to wake up to call for simplification of
regulations and installation practices
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Contact
Michael Colijn
Energy - Economics - Environment
[email protected]
NL. +31.6.5262.0732
Michael Colijn

Michael Colijn - Strom erzeugende Heizung

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