Central and Eastern Europe

April 2012 – N° 4
Central and Eastern Europe
Contents
Poland: will the Polish miracle go on?
Table of forecasts
p.2
Poland has emerged in Europe as a key player thanks to the strength of its economy. It is
Central Europe scenario
p.3
reaping the fruit of its robust fundamentals on both the public and private sectors and its
Thematic focus
p.6
good management of its economic policies. However, the Polish economy is likely to slow
Main indicators
p.7
down in 2012.
Domestic demand will suffer with the fading of the Euro 2012 football tournament impact
on consumption and investment and tourism exports after the summer. Monetary and
fiscal policy will provide no support. The outlook on Polish debt could be upgraded from
stable to positive this year, and its rating could rise to A in 2013 once it exits the
excessive-debt procedure.
Poland’s success with non-residents is a threat. It could jeopardize growth, given its
sensitivity to exchange rates and capital flows. Although the proportion of non-residents
is still under control and long-term investors (e.g., the Chinese central bank) are a
stabilizing presence on the debt market, everything will depend on Poland’s popularity.
Focus: the Turkish monetary headache
GDP base 100=T1 2008
115
P o land
CZ Rep
Lithuania
Ro mania
110
105
Authors:
Claire Bastian
Juan Carlos Rodado
115
Hungary
Latvia
B ulgaria
110
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
Publication editor:
Patrick Artus
Sources : Datast ream, NATIXIS
70
70
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Macroeconomic and financial forecasts
International environnement
Eurozone
GDP (yoy, %)
2011 p
2012 p
PIB (GA, %)
3,1
1,3
2,1
Inflation (GA, %)
4,1
3,2
3,1
-2,7
-2,7
-2,7
Chiffres clés Europe centrale *
Compte Courant (% PIB)
2013 p
-4,8
-3,9
-3,2
Dette publique (% PIB)
50,1
52,6
53,7
9,6
9,0
9,6
Taux de Chômage (% Pop. Act.)
*Europe centrale : Pologne, Hongrie, République Tchèque, Slovaquie,
2013f
-0,2
0,8
Inflation (yoy, %)
2,7
2,1
1,7
-4,2
-3,4
-2,6
1,8
GDP (yoy, %)
1,7
2,4
Inflation (yoy, %)
3,2
2,0
1,9
Public balance (% GDP)
-8,6
-7,9
-5,8
Japan
GDP (yoy, %)
Inflation (yoy, %)
Public balance (% GDP)
Slovénie, Estonie, Lettonie, Lituanie, Bulgarie, Roumanie (pondération PIB PPA)
Sources : Instituts Nationaux de Statistiques, Eurostat, Natixis
2012f
1,5
Public balance (% GDP)
United-States
Solde Budgétaire (% PIB)
2011f
Brent (Brl.$, annual average)
-0,9
2,1
1,0
-0,3
-0,4
-0,3
-8,9
-8,6
-8,6
111,2
111,5
111,3
Key figures for selected Central and Eastern European countries
20 11 f
GD P g ro w th (y oy , %)
2 0 12 f
2 01 3f
Inflation (yoy, %)
2011f
2012f
2013f
4,3
3,5
3,2
Po land
4,3
3 ,0
3 ,5
Poland
Hung ary
1,7
-0,9
0 ,7
Hungary
3,9
4,5
4,1
Czec h Repub lic
1,7
0 ,1
1 ,7
Czech Republic
1,9
3,0
2,6
Latv ia
5,5
2 ,1
2 ,8
Latvia
4,4
2,5
2,3
Lithuania
5,8
2 ,8
3 ,3
Lithuania
4,1
2,7
2,5
Bulg aria
1,7
1 ,3
1 ,9
Bulgaria
4,2
3,3
3,1
Romania
2,6
0 ,9
1 ,5
Romania
7,1
3,5
3,2
Rus sia
4,3
3 ,5
3 ,9
Russia
8,5
5,8
6,6
Turkey
8,5
1 ,6
3 ,7
Turkey
6,5
7,5
6,5
2011f
2012f
2013f
2011f
2012f
2013f
-5,0
-4,6
-4,8
1,7
3,2
3,7
Public balance (% GDP)
Current account (% GDP)
Poland
-5,6
-3,4
-3,0
Poland
Hungary
-3,7
-3,3
-3,2
Hungary
Czech Republic
-4,1
-3,7
-3,3
Czech Republic
-3,6
-3,2
-2,7
Latvia
-4,1
-3,3
-3,1
Latvia
-0,4
-1,1
-2,0
Lithuania
-4,9
-3,3
-2,9
Lithuania
-1,7
-1,9
-2,1
Bulgaria
-2,5
-1,9
-1,5
Bulgaria
1,6
1,4
1,1
Romania
-4,9
-3,9
-3,1
Romania
-4,1
-5,0
-5,5
Russia
0,8
-0,5
-1,9
Russia
6,5
3,5
2,2
Turkey
-1,4
-1,7
-2,5
Turkey
-10,0
-8,3
-6,9
Spre ad de taux contre Alle m agne , s w ap 1 an
(pb)
Taux d'inté rê t dire cte urs (%)
P o lo gne
Ho ngrie
République tchèque
Ro um anie
Zo ne euro
12
10
12
1200
P o lo gne
H o ngrie
1200
10
1000
R épublique tchèque
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Source : Dat ast ream
So urce : Dat ast ream
0
06
07
08
0
09
10
11
12
-200
-200
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Central and Eastern Europe
I2
Poland: will the Polish miracle go on?
while it rose by 5 points on average in new member
Poland has emerged in Europe as a key player thanks to the
states.
strength of its economy (4.3% in 2011 after 3.9% in 2010).
Chart 2
Dom estic credit (% of GDP)
100
Poland’s dynamism is exceptional. It is the only country in
the region whose GDP has exceeded, and by far, its precrisis level (chart on the first page). Poland is reaping the
100
80
80
60
60
fruit of its robust fundamentals in both the public and
private sectors (chart 1) and its good management of its
economic policies. Its growth model based on domestic
demand has served as a firewall against global trade
fluctuation. The economy has also enjoyed an exchange rate
40
P o land
Hungary
B ulgaria
Ro mania
Latvia
Lithuania
CZ Rep
that has absorbed external shocks combined with a series of
reforms to strengthen its competitiveness. In this note we
20
discuss the factors behind Poland’s success and the
challenges that it will face.
0
Sources : Dat ast ream, NATIXIS
0
Structural budget balance
-3
-2
Romania
Hungary
…which has benefited from a competitive exchange rate and
past reforms…
The resiliency of employment and wages is in line with the
-1
solid financial health of companies. Payrolls rose only
0
major productivity gains, thanks to an extremely competitive
Latvia
moderately before the crisis
1
Bulgaria
2
Source : NA TIX IS
Curre nt-account balance
in the sovereign debt crisis) have systematically weakened
the zloty and boosted cost competitiveness.
3
Chart 3
Productivity per capita and EUR/PLN
5
Unlike its regional peers, Poland managed to avoid recession
rate
1
was
3
not
4,0
(chart 2) during
2
3,8
the years of euphoria in new member-states (NMS)
1
Capital flows have gone into the productive sector
and not mostly into the real-estate market, as
funds, which came to 2.7% of GDP in 2011.

No drastic change in real wages, on the job market,
which has boosted private consumption. Poland’s
unemployment rate was the same between 2007
and 2011 (9.7% based on the Eurostat definition),
3,2
03
Public investment which has cushioned the decline
sharply improved its capacity to absorb European
3,4
-1
Europe.
in private investment. In particular, Poland has
3,6
Sources : Dat ast ream, NATIXIS
0
occurred in the Baltic countries or southeast

4,4
4,2
its domestic demand. This has been achieved thanks to:
penetration
4,6
EUR/P LN (right scale)
4
in 2008/2009. Its main strength has been the robustness of
accompanied by a FX credit boom
4,8
P ro ductivity per capita (Y/Y, %, left scale)
A growth model based on a solid domestic market…
bank
and companies achieved
Lehmann bankruptcy, fears on Eastern European, worsening
6
low
2
exchange rate (chart 3). Episodes of financial contagion (the
Cz Rep Poland
Poland’s
0
-25
Greece

20
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Chart 1
Financing re quire m e nt in 2007 (% of GDP)
-5
-10
-15
-20
Lithuania
40
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Moreover, a vast program of structural reforms since 2006
has boosted non-cost competitiveness, with a goal of
structural improvement, both qualitative and quantitative.
As
bureaucratic
competitiveness
3
red
tape
was
the
main
drain
on
, the SIGMA program was adopted, in
parallel with other reforms, such as facilitation of VAT
payment and business startup formalities. The government
is currently trying to deregulate more than 200 professions.
2
1Although
private sector solvency was hit by the zloty’s depreciation in H2 2008
and Q1 2009 (-53% vs. the EUR), fewer outstanding loans are denominated in
Heavy unemployment (13.5% in February, based on the national definition) put
pressure on nominal salaries (4.3% in Y/Y in February).
3
The paperwork needed to set up and manage a company has been reduced
foreign currency than in regional peer countries (one third of total outstanding
gradually since 2006. In 2011 the number of documents to be submitted was
loans, vs. two thirds in Hungary and Romania).
reduced and is likely to be cut further in 2012.
Central and Eastern Europe
I3
Despite the braking in 2012, Poland will achieve the EU-27’s
strongest growth rate.
Table 1. Gove r nm e nt r e for m s s ince 2006
Date
Since 2006
Since 2007
2008
Since 2009
Re for m s
- A dministrative burdens reduction
- Simplif ication of the law f or entrepreneurs : labor
market f lexibility, reduce limitations imposed on the
businesses
- Reduction of documents needed to create and manage
a f irm
- Improve a better regulation : SIGMA project (more
communication w ith Eurepean Union)
- V erif ication of measures put in place impact and utility
thanks to the RIA
Grants to f irms w hich invest in new technologies
Chart 5
Exports (Y/Y, %)
24
24
18
18
12
12
6
6
0
0
-6
Reduction of social charges f or employers (16.52%
against 18.52% ) and employees (15.71% against
13.71% ), simplif ying the payment of V A T
Reduction of capital requirements w hen starting a
business f rom 50 000 to 5 000 PLN
-6
P o land
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Ro mania
CZ Rep
-12
-18
Sources : Dat ast ream, NATIXIS
-12
-18
-24
So urc es : Go v ernm ent
-24
08
09
10
11
12
…but the Polish economy is likely to slow down in 2012…
The latest figures confirm the success of this growth model.
GDP rose by 4.3% Y/Y in Q4-2011 (1.1% Q/Q), after 4.2% in
Q3. Some rebalancing was still operated in domestic
demand. Consumer spending, which is the main component
of GDP (61%), slowed to 1.9% Y/Y in Q4-2011 (chart 4).
Investment (24% of GDP) filled the gap with a 10.9% Y/Y
increase.
…and monetary policy will not provide any support…
Early this year, the monetary policy debate pitted members
who felt that inflation had too long exceeded the target
against those who forecast a marked slowdown in the
economy. Prices did exceed the upper end of the target
range for the 13th consecutive month, at 3.9% in March, and
that has made monetary policy less credible (chart 6).
Chart 4
GDP Breakdow n (Y/Y, %)
25
25
Chart 6
Key interest rate and inflation (%)
7
7,0
Inflatio n (Y/Y)
Key interest rate
Co re inflatio n (Y/Y)
20
20
6
15
15
5
5,0
10
10
4
4,0
5
5
3
3,0
0
0
2
2,0
-5
1
1,0
GFCF
P rivate co nsumptio n
P ublic co nsumptio n
Fo reign balance (co ntrib.)
GDP
-5
-10
-10
Source : Eurostat
-15
-15
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Foreign trade has also supported growth but to a lesser
extent. Exports rose by 7.8% Y/Y, while imports stabilized at
about 5.4% Y/Y. The trade performance is all the more
remarkable as exports slowed to the euro zone (chart 5).
This coincides with the zloty’s slide of about 16% to the euro
Inflatio n target
0
6,0
0,0
Sources : Dat ast ream, NATIXIS
-1
-1,0
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
At the latest monetary policy committee meeting, the central
bank chairman Marek Belka stated that it would seriously
consider raising the key rate. While past decisions were
more split, the short-term bias is likely to remain restrictive.
in H2 2011. However, this impact is likely to fade, given the
zloty’s gains on the year to date (7.3% to the EUR). This is
reflected by the slowdown of industrial production in
February (4.6% Y/Y vs. 9% in January). Moreover, European
demand will be worse in 2012. Exports to the euro zone,
which account for more than half of Polish markets (57% in
2011), are likely to rise by only about 0.5% this year, after
4% in 2011. Domestic demand will suffer with the fading of
the Euro 2012 football tournament impact on consumption
and investment and tourism exports after the summer.
Central and Eastern Europe
I4
Chart 7
PMI and consum er confidence surveys
60
0
55
Chart 8
Public debt (% of GDP)
60
60
55
-5
55
-10
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
Natixis
Go vernment
50
-15
45
-20
40
-25
35
P M I - Euro zo ne
Sources : Datastream, NATIXIS
P M I - P o land
Co nsumer co nfidence - P o land (right scale)
30
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
-30
-35
Sources : Datastream, NATIXIS
30
30
13
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
And yet, core inflation is receding (to 2.6% in February). Unit
labor costs are sluggish, while unemployment is rising and
credit is slowing 4 . The Financial Supervision Authority (KNF)
has stiffened terms on loans denominated in foreign
currency, while the latest available figures on industry and
consumption suggest a slowdown in economic activity (chart
7). This slowdown is likely to intensify after the Euro 2012
soccer tournament. This is likely to rebalance the thinking
within the central bank, hence our status quo scenario for
this year.
…and Poland could be a victim of its success...
Poland’s economic performance is strong. But it could fall
victim to investor enthusiasm in particular from nonresidents, who increase their sovereign securities purchases
and contribute to make the zloty more volatile. This could
jeopardize economic growth, given its sensitivity to the
exchange rate. Poland cannot implement capital controls
due to its EU membership. Although the proportion of nonresidents is still under control and long-term investors (e.g.
… nor will fiscal policy, given the ongoing consolidation…
The government should continue its fiscal consolidation
plan. After a fiscal deficit equals to 5.6% of GDP in 2011, it is
targeting a deficit of about 2.9% this year. The ratings
the Chinese central bank) are a stabilizing presence on the
debt market, everything will depend on Poland’s popularity
(chart 9).
Chart 9
Main holders of sovereign bonds (% of total)
70
agencies will be keeping a close eye on fiscal performance,
in particular the reabsorption of the structural deficit. Two
60
reform, given the low participation rate and the population
50
70
60
initiatives will play a key role here. The first is pension
50
B anks
No n-residents
ageing. The government wants to adopt a single retirement
age of 67 for men and women in, respectively, 2020 and
40
40
Do mestic no n-financial secto r
2040. It is currently 65 for men and 60 for women. While
this measure is fraught with political risk, we believe that the
government has sufficient maneuvering room in Parliament
to pass this reform. The second major initiative concerns
rules on public spending. The Finance Ministry is also
working on an entire series of measures that will be
triggered if public debt exceeds the thresholds of 50%, 55%,
30
30
20
20
Sources : M inFin Poland, NATIXIS
10
10
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
and 60%. Poland already has a golden rule in place
(registered in the Constitution), which caps public debt at
60% of GDP. The outlook on Polish debt could be upgraded
from stable to positive after a favorable assessment of its
convergence program in June or when the Commission
releases its autumn forecasts. Poland is likely to be
upgraded
in
2013
when
it
exits
the
excessive-debt
procedure and its public debt recedes (chart 8).
4
Consumer credit decelerated to 9.5% Y/Y in February from 11% in January,
while home acquisition loans dropped to 15.7% Y/Y after 18.7% in January.
Central and Eastern Europe
I5
First, to raise the central bank’s gold and foreign currency
Focus: the Turkish monetary headache
reserves, which will bring TRY 6.1bn to the market, based on
The diversity of monetary policy instruments and objectives
CBRT estimates. Next, channel the population’s savings held
makes it hard to predict what the central bank (CBRT) will do.
in the form of gold into the banking system, in order to raise
The objectives are stable prices (with target of 5%, +/-2%)
the national savings rate and, hence, reduce the current
and a stable financial system. Like most emerging economy
account deficit. However, inflation is still the priority of
central banks, the CBRT keeps a close eye on the economic
monetary authorities and they have said they are prepared to
cycle and shifts in exchange rates. It has many instruments to
narrow the corridor in case of need. In consequence, they
achieve these objectives:
pushed upward the average refinancing cost in late March

the key interest rate (one-week repo rate) since
(chart 1) in order to reduce inflation expectations. But this
May 20th 2010. The average cost of commercial
rate once again fell below 8% after the March 27th monetary
banks financing is between this rate and the
policy committee meeting.
upper end of the corridor;


the corridor formed by the daily deposit and
In the next few months, monetary policy will track the
borrowing rates since Q4-2010 is therefore the
economic cycle while retaining its monetary flexibility. We
main weapon for controlling the amount of
forecast a marked slowdown in growth in the first half of the
money in circulation and its cost;
year, followed by an improvement in H2-2012.
reserves requirements implemented in Q4-2010,
which

help
control
liquidity,
in
Chart 2
USD/TRY and inflation
particular
through deposits of gold or foreign currency;
1,9
Foreign
1,8
currency
liquidity
facilities,
which
influence the exchange rate of the national
currency through purchases and sales.
USD/TYR
13
Inflatio n (%, Y/Y, right scale)
11
1,7
1,6
Chart 1
Central Bank interest rates
14
14
9
1,5
7
1,4
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
1,3
5
1,2
Sources : Dat astream, NATIXIS
A verage lending rate
Lo wer co rrido r rate
Upper co rrido r rate
One-week Repo
4
Sources : CBRT, NATIXIS
2
12-11
01-12
02-12
03-12
1,1
was no change to interest rates in March, but the central
composition of
reserves
by
modifying
requirements. They
10
11
12
forcing the CBRT to raise its forecasts to 5.1%-7.9% for year
04-12
February to 11.5% but kept the lower end unchanged. There
liquidity
09
temporary in the end of 2011, continues since 4 months now,
2
vs. 8.5% in 2011). It lowered the upper end of its corridor in
enhance
08
10.4% in March 2012 (chart 2). This situation, judged
should slow down this year (to 1.6%, based on our forecasts,
to
07
central bank desire to rein in inflation. Inflation came to
4
order to provide a slight boost to economic growth, which
intends
06
Our scenario depends on exchange rate trends and the
So far this year the CBRT has eased its monetary policy in
bank
3
05
the
may now
composed by 20% of gold, vs. 10% previously for localcurrency debt. Conversely, the rate fell from 10% to 0% for
end. Inflation is likely to remain high, due to higher energy
prices (oil and gas), regulated prices (gas, electricity, etc.)
and volatile exchange rates. However, the volatility should be
kept in perspective after the all-time low of TYR1.9/USD
reached in December 2011. There is a great risk of imported
inflation. Turkey is a net oil importer. Its trade deficit hit USD
-4.7bn in February. Wages have risen sharply (+15% in Y/Y in
Q4-2011) and are creating second round effects. Hence, if
inflation stays above 10%, the central bank could consider an
early tightening in monetary policy to restore its credibility.
foreign-currency debt. Two objectives are being pursued.
Central and Eastern Europe
I6
Main indicators:
GDP growth (Y/Y)
GDP growth (Y/Y)
Forecast Natixis
10%
10%
12%
12%
Forecast Natixis
8%
8%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
4%
4%
0%
0%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
Hungary
Czech Republic
Turkey
Poland
-4%
-6%
-4%
-8%
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
-4%
-12%
-6%
-16%
-8%
-20%
-20%
03
04
05
Inflation (Y/Y)
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Inflation (Y/Y)
Forecast Natixis
20%
Poland
Hungary
Czech Republic
Turkey
15%
-12%
Sources : National Statistical Institutes, Natixis
Sources : National Statistical Institutes, Natixis
20%
-8%
-16%
02
13
-4%
Latvia
Romania
Bulgaria
Lithuania
-8%
15%
Forecast Natixis
20%
20%
Latvia
Romania
Bulgaria
Lithuania
15%
15%
10%
10%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
5%
5%
0%
0%
-5%
-5%
02
03
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources : National Statistical Institutes, Natixis
Sources : National Statistical Institutes, Natixis
Budget account (% of GDP)
2%
04
Budget account (% of GDP)
2%
Forecast Natixis
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
Forecast Natixis
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-4%
-2%
-2%
-6%
-6%
-4%
-4%
-8%
-8%
-10%
-10%
Hungary
Czech Republic
Turkey
Poland
-12%
-12%
-14%
-14%
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
-6%
-10%
2%
-12%
-14%
02
03
04
Forecast Natixis
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-6%
-6%
-8%
-8%
-10%
-10%
-12%
-12%
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources : National Statistical Institutes, Natixis
11
05 06 07
08 09 10
Sources: Eurostat, Natixis
11
12
13
Current account (% of GDP)
0%
02
-10%
-14%
Current account (% of GDP)
Poland
Czech Republic
Turkey
Hungary
-8%
-12%
Sources: Eurostat, Natixis
4%
-6%
Latvia
Bulgaria
Lithuania
Romania
-8%
12
13
12%
Forecast Natixis
Latvia
Romania
Bulgaria
Lithuania
8%
4%
12%
8%
4%
0%
0%
-4%
-4%
-8%
-8%
-12%
-12%
-16%
-16%
-20%
-20%
-24%
-24%
-28%
-28%
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources : National Statistical Institutes, Natixis
Central and Eastern Europe
I7
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I8