Monthly Update - Industrial Alliance

GROUP SAVINGS
AND RETIREMENT
Monthly Update
Economic and Financial Bulletin
inalco.com
Sébastien Mc Mahon, M.E.Sc., PRM, CFA
March 31, 2015
Economist • Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc.
[email protected] or inalco.com/economy
Spotlight on monetary policy
March was clearly the month of monetary policy. It all began on March 9, when the
European Central Bank (ECB) launched its much-awaited quantitative easing program.
The ECB announced that it will buy 60 billion euros worth of bonds on the secondary
market each month, until at least September 2016.
It was then the U.S. Federal Reserve’s turn, when it removed the famous word “patient”
from its press release and replaced it with a statement specifying that although a rate
increase was unlikely in April, it would continue to study such a possibility at each of its
subsequent meetings. For the moment, the members of the decision-making Federal
Open Market Committee (FOMC) have indicated that they intend to raise the key rate
twice before the end of the year (according to their median projection), but the markets
remain skeptical, expecting just one rate increase. Janet Yellen, Chair of the FOMC,
specified that although it is not necessary for inflation to return to its target range before
proceeding, she nonetheless wants to make sure that inflation expectations are well
entrenched.
Finally, the Bank of Canada opted not to lower its key rate a second time, deeming that
January’s surprise cut is sufficient for the moment and that it prefers to take the time to
measure the impacts of the oil price collapse on the Canadian economy.
Canada: plunge in oil prices wreaks havoc
The Canadian economy has been hit full force by the plunge in the price of crude,
especially in the western part of the country. While 80% of jobs created in Canada in
2014 were located in the western provinces, the situation has been quite the opposite
since the start of 2015. All jobs added in the first two months of the year were in Ontario
and Quebec (see graph), but this does not mean that the manufacturing sector has taken
the lead. Looking at the details, we quickly discover that the manufacturing sector has
also contracted since the beginning of the year, and that the jobs created in the central
provinces are mostly part-time.
Given that 55% of Canadian stock market capitalization is concentrated in the finance
and energy sectors, and that these sectors are suffering from the decline in the price of
our primary export product as well as the resulting overall decrease in revenues, it is
difficult to be optimistic about the Canadian stock market for the first half of the year. We
continue to recommend being careful towards large-cap Canadian equities, as well as
holding a considerable position in small-cap companies, concentrated in the segment of
manufacturing exporters who stand to benefit directly from the loonie’s weakness.
United States: a rough start
U.S. data has been disappointing since the start of the year, as shown by the economic
surprise index, which is sinking deeper and deeper into negative territory. The behaviour
of U.S. consumers seems to have changed, for although there has been accelerated
growth in income (resulting from strong job creation), this is not translating into an
increase in consumption; rather, it is savings that are growing. The most likely
explanation is that demographic changes (more retirees, a more cautious generation of
youth, etc.) have resulted in a change in the behaviour of the average household, whose
consumption is more focused on services. This phenomenon is well illustrated by the
data on retail sales, which have been systematically disappointing since the beginning of
the year.
Earnings growth expectations for the S&P 500 in 2015 are nearly zero, suggesting that
any gains on the market will come primarily from an expansion of multiples. The
possibility that the Fed will be less aggressive when it begins its next upward cycle
should support an expansion of multiples, but it is hard to imagine another year of
returns above the historical average on the U.S. market.
Europe: best first quarter since 1998
Europe is doing better economically and this has been reflected in the markets. Although
growth is still weak and the unemployment level high, the accumulation of positive
surprises indicates that a solid foundation for recovery is taking shape. The situation in
Greece is still not resolved but the markets seem to have lost interest, hardly reacting to
news on that front. It will be Spain’s turn to bring the ideological debate on austerity back
to the forefront in the second half of the year, at which time the markets may react more
strongly.
Continued on last page
Jobs creation in Canada
in 2015
Economic and Financial Statistics
As at February 28
As at
2014-12-31
40
35
Canada - Unemployment rate
6.8%
6.6%
Canada - CPI (year/year variation)
1.0%
2.0%
Canada - GDP (year/year variation)
2.4%
2.3%
U.S. - Unemployment rate
5.5%
5.8%
U.S. - CPI (year/year variation)
0.0%
1.3%
15
25
20
2.4%
2.7%
10
0.50%
1.01%
5
10-year Canada Bonds
1.36%
1.79%
Oil (West Texas) ($US)
47.6
53.8
1,187.6
1,186.3
211.9
230.0
1.2688
1.1621
CRB Commodities Index ($US)
Exchange rate $CA/$US
Most recent data available at such date
0
Source: IAIM
Gold ($US)
1
30
2-year Canada Bonds
U.S. - GDP (year/year variation)
34.5
32.8
-5
15.1
-0.3
-4.5
-10
-8.6
-15
B.C.
Prairies
Ontario
Quebec
Atlantic
Canada
Source: IAIM
As at
2015-03-311
Gross returns as at March 31, 2015
Net assets1
in millions
$
Simple returns2
1 month 3 months YTD
%
%
%
Compound annual returns
1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years
%
%
%
%
Investment
advisor
Asset Allocation Funds
506
507
508
509
510
Asset Allocation - Conservative
Asset Allocation - Moderate
Asset Allocation - Balanced
Asset Allocation - Growth
Asset Allocation - Aggressive Growth
69.0
130.8
331.2
179.4
90.2
(0.3)
(0.4)
(0.6)
(0.7)
(0.8)
5.2
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.2
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
10.9
10.7
10.4
10.2
9.8
9.0
10.4
11.8
13.2
14.6
8.1
8.7
9.2
9.7
10.1
6.7
7.0
7.3
7.5
7.7
Various Managers
Various Managers
Various Managers
Various Managers
Various Managers
440.9
309.3
146.1
2,728.9
9.6
218.8
79.3
25.5
139.1
9.8
28.6
0.1
(0.1)
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.1)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.3)
(0.7)
(0.8)
0.5
0.2
2.0
4.2
4.1
3.4
4.3
3.5
4.3
7.2
7.4
2.2
0.2
2.0
4.2
4.1
3.4
4.3
3.5
4.3
7.2
7.4
2.2
1.0
4.3
10.3
10.3
7.5
10.0
9.2
10.7
19.5
19.7
7.1
1.0
1.0
3.2
3.7
5.1
6.1
5.4
6.3
3.6
4.9*
5.9
6.2
4.8
5.7
5.5
6.2
7.7
9.9
8.5 10.0
11.9*
-
2.0
4.0
5.6
5.9
5.7*
5.6
5.9*
8.1
-
Industrial Alliance
Industrial Alliance
TD
Industrial Alliance
Beutel Goodman
PIMCO
Fiera Capital
Phillips, Hager & North
Industrial Alliance
PIMCO
PIMCO
418.8
82.3
1,938.7
85.1
17.5
6.0
31.8
638.2
29.4
(0.2)
(0.7)
(0.1)
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.5)
(0.4)
(0.1)
(0.8)
5.0
7.4
6.9
6.3
7.2
6.6
6.0
7.1
4.1
5.0
7.4
6.9
6.3
7.2
6.6
6.0
7.1
4.1
12.1
15.0
13.5
14.5
15.8
14.3
10.6
13.8
11.3
9.4
8.0 7.0
11.6* 10.0* 7.2*
12.3
9.5 7.8
14.2 11.0 7.5
13.0
8.7 7.0
12.6
9.4 6.7*
12.5 10.4* 7.9*
13.5
9.9 8.1
10.4
7.9 8.4
Industrial Alliance
BlackRock
Industrial Alliance
Jarislowsky
MFS
Phillips, Hager & North
Beutel Goodman
Industrial Alliance
Fidelity
890.6
12.3
42.5
347.0
101.1
137.0
56.3
5.2
84.1
459.8
32.2
22.4
269.5
1.1
16.8
48.6
147.8
2.6
(1.5)
(0.7)
(1.9)
(1.7)
(2.6)
(1.0)
(2.4)
(5.7)
(0.3)
(1.5)
(0.2)
(0.8)
(0.6)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(2.0)
(0.2)
(0.5)
1.6
2.8
2.6
3.8
0.7
1.1
0.6
(1.6)
7.2
4.5
5.6
1.3
3.9
3.1
2.6
(0.8)
0.0
4.6
1.6
2.8
2.6
3.8
0.7
1.1
0.6
(1.6)
7.2
4.5
5.6
1.3
3.9
3.1
2.6
(0.8)
0.0
4.6
8.7
10.6
7.0
3.5
(1.9)
9.7
(0.6)
(11.2)
12.7
9.5
14.8
1.4
15.2
8.0
18.1
(7.7)
1.6
13.1
11.6
15.7*
9.6
9.6
6.6
13.9
7.5
4.6
17.9
12.6
14.2
13.9
17.0
15.0
15.0*
5.0
19.2
14.5
9.9
13.1*
7.4*
6.6
4.8
9.4
5.6
4.0
12.9*
8.9
7.2
8.7
12.1
11.5*
15.9*
7.5
16.1
8.9
9.6
10.0*
7.4*
6.3
6.3
8.4
6.8*
5.5
11.2*
10.4
7.7
8.2
10.4
8.4
12.0*
7.8
Industrial Alliance
Beutel Goodman
TD
Industrial Alliance
Industrial Alliance
Jarislowsky
Scheer Rowlett
Invesco
Pyramis
Industrial Alliance
MFS
Selexia
Fidelity
CC&L
TD
Montrusco Bolton
QV Investors Inc.
MFS
25.1
179.3
312.9
24.2
177.2
53.7
13.4
42.3
4.5
7.3
24.4
1.1
127.6
4.8
26.0
345.5
71.7
2.1
8.9
23.3
1.8
(0.1)
0.9
0.5
(1.1)
(0.4)
(0.6)
(0.2)
0.1
0.1
(1.3)
0.1
0.6
2.4
(0.3)
(0.1)
1.0
1.4
(1.2)
0.0
(0.4)
(0.4)
12.0
13.8
11.5
9.6
11.2
3.9
8.5
12.8
13.2
9.1
11.0
14.3
15.5
13.1
14.7
16.3
15.2
11.8
13.8
13.5
13.5
12.0
13.8
11.5
9.6
11.2
3.9
8.5
12.8
13.2
9.1
11.0
14.3
15.5
13.1
14.7
16.3
15.2
11.8
13.8
13.5
13.5
21.4
23.1
13.3
13.4
22.5
15.0
19.8
21.2
23.5
12.4
26.1
24.1
14.5
19.3
13.9
15.7
11.0
10.7
15.4
15.5
21.9
19.8*
21.6
24.3
18.6
20.4
15.1
17.5
20.5
23.2
15.9*
21.4*
22.5*
21.8
31.5*
18.2
18.7
19.4
15.6
18.6
17.1
20.7*
13.9*
14.7
15.2
13.1*
13.6
10.3
12.8
13.3
15.8
13.0*
20.6*
16.7
25.2*
11.2
12.1
11.4
11.2*
13.7
10.6
15.2*
7.6
6.4*
8.2*
7.5*
6.7
10.8*
5.6
5.8
6.4*
6.3
6.5
10.0*
BlackRock
Industrial Alliance
Templeton
Sprucegrove
Hexavest
Hexavest
QV Investors Inc.
MFS
Pyramis
Aberdeen
TD
Invesco
Deutsche AWM
Mawer
BlackRock
Industrial Alliance
Templeton
Sprucegrove
Jarislowsky
Hexavest
Mawer
Income Funds
070
170
489
020
750
860
472
521
504
861
893
Money Market
Short Term Bonds
Emerald Canadian Bond Index (TD)
Bonds
Bonds (Beutel Goodman)
Bonds (PIMCO)
Bonds (Fiera Capital)
Bonds (PH&N)
Long Term Bonds
Long Term Bonds (PIMCO)
Global Fixed Income (PIMCO)
Diversified Funds
240
889
040
463
380
522
751
250
462
Diversified Security
Balanced Moderate Index (BlackRock)
Diversified
Diversified (Jarislowsky)
Diversified (MFS)
Balanced (PH&N)
Diversified (Beutel Goodman)
Diversified Opportunity
Fidelity Canadian Asset Allocation
Canadian Equity Funds
160
887
753
010
494
488
543
487
871
464
360
473
270
759
888
511
541
514
Dividends
Canadian Dividend (Beutel Goodman)
Canadian Equity Index (TD)
Canadian Equity Value
100% Canadian Equity Value
Canadian Equity (Jarislowsky)
Canadian Equity (Scheer Rowlett)
Canadian Equity (Invesco)
Canadian Focused Equity (Pyramis)
Canadian Equity Growth
Canadian Equity (MFS)
Canadian Equity (Fiera Capital)
Fidelity True North®
Canadian Equity Q 120/20 (CC&L)
Canadian Equity Low Volatility (TD)
Canadian Equity Small Cap (Montrusco)
Canadian Equity Small Cap (QV)
Canadian Equity Responsible (MFS)
Foreign Equity Funds
876
707
465
754
500
865
534
390
863
120
886
490
531
130
300
706
080
755
483
852
131
Global Equity Index ACWI (BlackRock)
Global Equity
Global Equity (Templeton)
Global Equity (Sprucegrove)
Global Equity (Hexavest)
Global Equity (C$-Hedged) (Hexavest)
Global Equity (QV)
Global Equity (MFS)
Global Equity (Pyramis)
Global Equity (Aberdeen)
Global Equity Low Volatility ACWI (TD)
Global Equity Mid Cap (Invesco)
Global Equity Small Cap (Deutsche AWM)3
Global Equity Small Cap (Mawer)
International Equity Index (BlackRock)
International Equity
International Equity (Templeton)
International Equity (Sprucegrove)
International Equity (Jarislowsky)
International Equity (Hexavest)
International Equity (Mawer)
Industrial Alliance • Monthly Update
Gross returns as at March 31, 2015
Net assets1
in millions
$
Simple returns2
1 month 3 months YTD
%
%
%
Compound annual returns
1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years
%
%
%
%
Investment
advisor
Foreign Equity Funds (continued)
467
121
760
895
518
705
756
512
132
513
International Equity (MFS)
International Equity (Aberdeen)
U.S. Equity Index (BlackRock)
U.S. Equity Index Non-Registered (BlackRock)
U.S. Dividend Growth
U.S. Equity
U.S. Equity (Sprucegrove)
U.S. Equity (Jarislowsky)
U.S. Equity (Mawer)
U.S. Equity (MFS)
17.7
7.2
61.5
13.5
157.0
286.6
0.9
15.9
10.9
25.5
0.4
(1.3)
(0.2)
(0.2)
0.7
1.2
(0.1)
0.5
0.4
0.4
16.7
9.8
10.2
10.3
11.4
12.3
8.5
11.1
12.0
10.8
16.7
9.8
10.2
10.3
11.4
12.3
8.5
11.1
12.0
10.8
17.4
8.9
29.0
28.8
30.1
31.6
19.0
28.9
30.8
28.2
1.3
1.7
12.2
1.4
3.6
0.3
3.2
3.2
0.4
1.2
1.6
1.0
1.3
(5.9)
0.0
(2.3)
4.4
13.6
14.5
8.2
9.5
(2.5)
12.2
7.8
4.4
13.6
14.5
8.2
9.5
(2.5)
12.2
7.8
11.1
33.6
34.9
25.8
21.1
(19.0)
14.1
9.8
18.4
13.0*
25.5
25.2*
25.4
22.4
26.6
27.0*
25.7
11.6
11.1*
19.5*
19.2*
18.4
15.7*
19.1
20.2*
17.3
6.5
8.2*
8.5
9.3*
8.3
MFS
Aberdeen
BlackRock
BlackRock
Industrial Alliance
Industrial Alliance
Sprucegrove
Jarislowsky
Mawer
MFS
6.4*
8.4*
Invesco
BlackRock
Pyramis
BlackRock
Lazard
Invesco
BlackRock
Templeton
Alternative/Specialty Funds
491
896
540
897
757
892
898
758
Balanced-Risk Allocation (Invesco)
Global Developed Real Estate Index (BlackRock)†
Global Real Estate (Pyramis)†
Global Infrastructure Equity Index (BlackRock)†
Global Infrastructure (Lazard)†
Canadian Resources (Invesco)†
Emerging Markets Equity Index (BlackRock)†
Emerging Markets (Templeton)†
22.5 17.3
24.1 16.9*
(3.9)* (0.7)*
6.6
5.3*
Simple returns2
1 month 3 months
YTD
%
%
%
Benchmark Indexes
Money market index
IN018
FTSE TMX Canada 91 Day T-Bill Index
Bond indexes
IN019
FTSE TMX Canada Short Term Bond Index
IN056
FTSE TMX Canada Long Term Bond Index
IN021
FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index
Equity indexes
IN024
S&P/TSX Composite Index
IN037
S&P/TSX SmallCap Index
IN097
MSCI - ACWI Index (Can. $) (net ret.)
IN008
MSCI - World Index (Can. $) (net ret.)
IN104
MSCI - World Index (Local $) (net ret.)
IN079
MSCI - World Small Cap Index (Can. $)
IN002
MSCI - EAFE Index (Can. $) (net ret.)
IN014
S&P 500 Index (Can. $)
IN006
MSCI - Emerging Markets Index (Can. $)
Compound annual returns
1 year
3 years 5 years 10 years
%
%
%
%
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.9
1.0
0.9
1.9
0.0
(0.7)
(0.3)
1.9
7.1
4.2
1.9
7.1
4.2
3.9
19.7
10.3
2.9
7.8
5.1
3.3
10.0
6.0
4.0
7.9
5.6
(1.9)
(3.8)
(0.2)
(0.2)
(0.4)
1.7
(0.1)
(0.2)
0.0
2.6
(0.3)
11.8
11.9
4.9
14.3
14.7
10.4
11.8
2.6
(0.3)
11.8
11.9
4.9
14.3
14.7
10.4
11.8
6.9
(9.8)
21.0
21.7
14.0
19.3
13.7
29.4
15.7
9.6
(1.1)
19.9
21.5
15.6
23.4
18.0
25.7
9.0
7.4
2.0
13.9
15.0
11.3
17.6
11.0
19.7
6.7
7.4
2.2
6.9
6.9
6.7
9.1
5.4
8.5
9.3
The benchmark index for each fund is published in the Quarterly Update.
1
2
3
Total net assets of the fund including individual and group contracts.
The rates of return for the period are non-annualized.
Fund managed by Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management (Deutsche AWM) since March 31, 2008.
The above returns are gross returns and do not take into account
management and administration fees. Past performance is not a
guarantee of future returns.
* Simulation of past returns as if the fund had been in effect for these periods.
Index funds: Simulation of past returns from the return of the index that the fund aims to reproduce.
Asset allocation funds: Simulation of past returns based on the return of the funds included in the asset
allocation fund and on an asset allocation decision.
†
Offered only for certain types of contracts.
Guaranteed Investments
Published rates
Special 1-day
1 year
2 years
3 years
0.05
0.50
0.85
0.90
Returns as at March 31, 2015 (%)
4 years
5 years
6 years
1.05
1.25
0.10
7 years
8 years
9 years
10 years
0.10
0.10
0.10
1.45
The rates applicable to your guaranteed investments may differ from those presented above.
To find out the applicable adjustment, please call Client Service at the following number: 1-800-567-5670.
Industrial Alliance • Monthly Update
ATTITUDE Portfolios • Gross Returns as at March 31, 2015
PORTFOLIOS
Benchmark
indexes
Simple
returns1 (in %)
1 month 3 months YTD
INDEXES
Compound
annual returns (in %)
1 year 3 years 5 years
Simple
returns1 (in %)
1 month 3 months YTD
Compound
annual returns (in %)
1 year 3 years 5 years
Conservative
Conservative Portfolio 1996 to 2000
Conservative Portfolio 2001 to 2005
Conservative Portfolio 2006 to 2010
Conservative Portfolio 2011 to 2015
Conservative Portfolio 2016 to 2020
Conservative Portfolio 2021 to 2025
Conservative Portfolio 2026 to 2030
Conservative Portfolio 2031 to 2035
Conservative Portfolio 2036 to 2040
Conservative Portfolio 2041 to 2045
Conservative Portfolio 2046 to 2050
Conservative Portfolio 2051 to 2055
Conservative Portfolio 2056 to 2060
INP9544
INP9545
INP9000
INP9546
INP9001
INP9547
INP9002
INP9548
INP9003
INP9549
INP9004
INP9550
INP9339
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
3.3
3.4
3.8
4.1
4.3
4.7
5.0
5.2
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.8
3.3
3.4
3.8
4.1
4.3
4.7
5.0
5.2
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.8
7.8
8.0
8.8
9.4
9.8
10.1
10.2
10.4
10.6
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.7
4.7
5.3
6.4
7.1
7.8
8.7
9.5
9.9
10.3
10.6
11.0
11.3
11.3
5.1
5.7
6.4
7.0
7.5
8.2
8.4
8.7
8.8
9.0
9.1
9.4
9.2
(0.2)
(0.2)
(0.3)
(0.4)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.6)
(0.6)
(0.6)
(0.6)
(0.6)
(0.6)
(0.6)
3.3
3.3
3.7
4.0
4.3
4.6
4.9
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.7
3.3
3.3
3.7
4.0
4.3
4.6
4.9
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.7
7.7
8.0
9.0
9.7
10.3
10.8
11.0
11.3
11.6
11.6
11.7
11.9
11.9
4.3
4.8
5.7
6.4
7.0
7.8
8.5
8.9
9.3
9.6
9.9
10.2
10.2
5.1
5.5
6.2
6.6
7.1
7.6
8.0
8.2
8.5
8.6
8.8
8.9
8.8
INP9551
INP9552
INP9005
INP9553
INP9006
INP9554
INP9007
INP9555
INP9008
INP9556
INP9009
INP9557
INP9340
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.4)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
3.5
3.6
4.0
4.3
4.6
5.0
5.2
5.5
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.1
3.5
3.6
4.0
4.3
4.6
5.0
5.2
5.5
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.1
8.1
8.3
9.0
9.6
9.9
10.1
10.2
10.4
10.8
10.8
10.8
10.9
10.9
5.9
6.4
7.7
8.7
9.4
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.4
11.7
12.1
12.4
12.4
5.7
6.2
7.2
7.9
8.3
8.8
8.9
9.2
9.3
9.6
9.7
10.0
9.7
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.4)
(0.5)
(0.6)
(0.6)
(0.6)
(0.6)
(0.7)
(0.7)
(0.7)
(0.7)
(0.7)
3.5
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.5
4.9
5.1
5.4
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.0
3.5
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.5
4.9
5.1
5.4
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.0
8.2
8.5
9.4
10.3
10.7
11.0
11.2
11.5
11.9
12.0
12.1
12.2
12.2
5.3
5.7
6.9
7.8
8.4
9.0
9.5
9.9
10.3
10.6
10.9
11.2
11.2
5.8
6.1
6.9
7.5
7.9
8.3
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.1
9.4
9.5
9.4
INP9558
INP9559
INP9010
INP9560
INP9011
INP9561
INP9012
INP9562
INP9013
INP9563
INP9014
INP9564
INP9341
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4)
3.7
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.6
5.1
5.4
5.7
6.2
6.2
6.3
6.5
6.5
3.7
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.6
5.1
5.4
5.7
6.2
6.2
6.3
6.5
6.5
8.4
8.5
9.2
9.7
9.9
10.1
10.3
10.5
10.9
10.9
10.9
11.0
11.0
7.0
7.5
8.6
9.3
9.9
10.8
11.6
12.1
12.6
12.8
13.3
13.6
13.6
6.5
6.9
7.7
8.2
8.6
9.3
9.5
9.9
9.8
10.1
10.2
10.4
10.2
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.5)
(0.6)
(0.6)
(0.7)
(0.7)
(0.7)
(0.7)
(0.7)
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.8)
3.7
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.6
5.0
5.3
5.6
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.3
3.7
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.6
5.0
5.3
5.6
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.3
8.7
9.0
9.8
10.4
10.9
11.1
11.5
11.8
12.2
12.3
12.4
12.5
12.5
6.3
6.7
7.6
8.3
8.9
9.7
10.4
10.9
11.3
11.6
12.0
12.2
12.2
6.5
6.8
7.4
7.8
8.2
8.7
9.1
9.3
9.5
9.7
9.8
10.0
9.9
INP9565
INP9566
INP9015
INP9567
INP9016
INP9568
INP9017
INP9569
INP9018
INP9570
INP9019
INP9571
INP9342
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
3.9
4.0
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.3
5.6
6.0
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.8
3.9
4.0
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.3
5.6
6.0
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.8
8.6
8.8
9.4
9.8
10.0
10.1
10.3
10.6
11.0
11.0
11.1
11.1
11.1
8.2
8.7
9.7
10.3
11.0
11.8
12.7
13.2
13.7
14.0
14.4
14.7
14.7
7.0
7.5
8.2
8.7
9.1
9.8
10.0
10.3
10.4
10.6
10.7
10.9
10.7
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.6)
(0.7)
(0.7)
(0.7)
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.8)
3.9
4.0
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.2
5.6
5.9
6.4
6.4
6.5
6.7
6.7
3.9
4.0
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.2
5.6
5.9
6.4
6.4
6.5
6.7
6.7
9.2
9.4
10.2
10.8
11.1
11.3
11.7
12.0
12.5
12.6
12.7
12.8
12.8
7.4
7.7
8.6
9.2
9.8
10.6
11.3
11.8
12.3
12.6
13.0
13.2
13.2
7.0
7.3
7.9
8.3
8.7
9.2
9.5
9.8
10.0
10.2
10.3
10.5
10.4
Moderate
Moderate Portfolio 1996 to 2000
Moderate Portfolio 2001 to 2005
Moderate Portfolio 2006 to 2010
Moderate Portfolio 2011 to 2015
Moderate Portfolio 2016 to 2020
Moderate Portfolio 2021 to 2025
Moderate Portfolio 2026 to 2030
Moderate Portfolio 2031 to 2035
Moderate Portfolio 2036 to 2040
Moderate Portfolio 2041 to 2045
Moderate Portfolio 2046 to 2050
Moderate Portfolio 2051 to 2055
Moderate Portfolio 2056 to 2060
Balanced
Balanced Portfolio 1996 to 2000
Balanced Portfolio 2001 to 2005
Balanced Portfolio 2006 to 2010
Balanced Portfolio 2011 to 2015
Balanced Portfolio 2016 to 2020
Balanced Portfolio 2021 to 2025
Balanced Portfolio 2026 to 2030
Balanced Portfolio 2031 to 2035
Balanced Portfolio 2036 to 2040
Balanced Portfolio 2041 to 2045
Balanced Portfolio 2046 to 2050
Balanced Portfolio 2051 to 2055
Balanced Portfolio 2056 to 2060
Growth
Growth Portfolio 1996 to 2000
Growth Portfolio 2001 to 2005
Growth Portfolio 2006 to 2010
Growth Portfolio 2011 to 2015
Growth Portfolio 2016 to 2020
Growth Portfolio 2021 to 2025
Growth Portfolio 2026 to 2030
Growth Portfolio 2031 to 2035
Growth Portfolio 2036 to 2040
Growth Portfolio 2041 to 2045
Growth Portfolio 2046 to 2050
Growth Portfolio 2051 to 2055
Growth Portfolio 2056 to 2060
Continued on other side
Industrial Alliance • Monthly Update
ATTITUDE Portfolios • Gross Returns as at March 31, 2015
PORTFOLIOS
Benchmark
indexes
Simple
returns1 (in %)
1 month 3 months YTD
INDEXES
Compound
annual returns (in %)
1 year 3 years 5 years
Simple
returns1 (in %)
1 month 3 months YTD
Compound
annual returns (in %)
1 year 3 years 5 years
Aggressive
Aggressive Portfolio 1996 to 2000
Aggressive Portfolio 2001 to 2005
Aggressive Portfolio 2006 to 2010
Aggressive Portfolio 2011 to 2015
Aggressive Portfolio 2016 to 2020
Aggressive Portfolio 2021 to 2025
Aggressive Portfolio 2026 to 2030
Aggressive Portfolio 2031 to 2035
Aggressive Portfolio 2036 to 2040
Aggressive Portfolio 2041 to 2045
Aggressive Portfolio 2046 to 2050
Aggressive Portfolio 2051 to 2055
Aggressive Portfolio 2056 to 2060
INP9572
INP9573
INP9020
INP9574
INP9021
INP9575
INP9022
INP9576
INP9023
INP9577
INP9024
INP9578
INP9343
(0.4)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.6)
(0.6)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
4.0
4.1
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.4
5.9
6.3
6.8
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.1
4.0
4.1
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.4
5.9
6.3
6.8
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.1
8.8
9.0
9.6
10.0
10.1
10.0
10.3
10.6
11.1
11.1
11.2
11.2
11.2
8.8
9.5
10.8
11.4
12.0
12.9
13.7
14.3
14.8
15.1
15.5
15.8
15.8
7.2
7.8
8.7
9.2
9.5
10.2
10.4
10.8
10.9
11.1
11.2
11.4
11.2
(0.5)
(0.6)
(0.7)
(0.7)
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.9)
(0.9)
(0.9)
(0.9)
4.0
4.1
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.4
5.8
6.2
6.7
6.8
6.8
7.0
7.0
4.0
4.1
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.4
5.8
6.2
6.7
6.8
6.8
7.0
7.0
9.5
9.7
10.7
11.1
11.4
11.5
11.9
12.3
12.9
12.9
13.0
13.2
13.2
7.9
8.4
9.6
10.2
10.7
11.5
12.3
12.8
13.4
13.6
14.0
14.3
14.3
7.3
7.7
8.4
8.8
9.2
9.6
10.0
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.8
10.9
10.8
Benchmark Indexes • Gross Returns as at March 31, 2015
Simple
returns1 (in %)
1 month 3 months YTD
Compound
annual returns (in %)
1 year 3 years 5 years
Bond indexes
IN019
IN021
FTSE TMX Canada Short Term Bond Index
FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index
0.0
(0.3)
1.9
4.2
1.9
4.2
3.9
10.3
2.9
5.1
3.3
6.0
9.0
6.9
6.9
(9.8)
21.7
14.0
19.3
10.4
9.6
9.6
(1.1)
21.5
15.6
23.4
7.3
7.4
7.4
2.0
15.0
11.3
17.6
Equity indexes
IN026
IN024
IN031
IN037
IN008
IN104
IN079
S&P/TSX 60 Index
S&P/TSX Composite Index
S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index
S&P/TSX SmallCap Index
MSCI - World Index (Can. $) (net ret.)
MSCI - World Index (Local $) (net ret.)
MSCI - World Small Cap Index (Can. $)
(2.1)
(1.9)
(1.9)
(3.8)
(0.2)
(0.4)
1.7
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
(0.3) (0.3)
11.9 11.9
4.9
4.9
14.3 14.3
Composite indexes (portfolios)
Each portfolio index is composed of a set of benchmark sub-indexes, listed above. These sub-indexes are linked to the portfolios’ underlying funds. The weighting used is equal
to the asset allocation of the portfolios’ underlying funds. The asset allocation varies periodically. The current allocation appears on the Composition of the ATTITUDE portfolios
(in %) page of the Quarterly Update publication.
1
Rates of return for the period are non-annualized.
Some portfolio returns are simulated as if they were in effect during the periods shown above.
The above returns are gross returns and do not take into account management and administration fees.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.
Industrial Alliance • Monthly Update
Monthly Update
Continued from first page
The outlook for corporate earnings is improving and the massive injection of liquidity by
the ECB should serve as a springboard for multiples expansion. After a very strong first
quarter on the stock markets (more than 10% in local currency), we expect European
equities to continue to outperform, from now to the end of the year.
Financial markets: lacking conviction
World: India surpasses China in growth
• The U.S. S&P 500 Index took a pause, down 1.6% in March (a down 0.2% in
Canadian dollars).
For the first time since the 1990s (with the exception of a brief period about five years
ago), India surpassed China in terms of economic growth in 2014. While China has been
implementing major reforms that are slowing its development (combating pollution,
setting up a social safety net, etc.), India has also introduced a program of reforms,
focused instead on growth. The net impact of this leadership change on world growth is
not exactly positive, however, since the Chinese economy is about 2.5 times the size of
India’s. Thus, the International Monetary Fund estimates that China will contribute 31%
to world growth in 2015, while India will contribute only 11%.
On the stock markets, India is one of the few emerging market countries attracting
international investment, a rare point of light within this segment that, on the contrary, is
experiencing a widespread flight of liquidity, the result of investor caution at the dawn of
the U.S. tightening its monetary policy.
• The S&P/TSX Composite Index dipped into the red in March. The Canadian index
was down 1.9%, pulled down by materials, information technology, and
telecommunications.
• World indices MSCI - EAFE and MSCI - World returned respectively 1.3% and -0.4%
(-0.1% and -0.2% respectively in Canadian dollars). Meanwhile, the emerging
markets, measured by the MSCI - Emerging Markets Index, returned 0.2%
(0.0% in Canadian dollars).
• The Canadian bond market, measured by the FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index,
was down 0.3% in March.
inalco.com
F95-21-1(15-04)
Check the Group Retirement Plans
section, under Companies and
Groups, for daily fund performance
and unit values.
Industrial Alliance • Monthly Update