PPP for development of natural catastrophe insurance in Europe

Transcription

Formose‐ChangesPostGraduate Course« Protecting Mountain Societies from NaturalHazards:PlansorDams »
Barcelonette,23‐29June 2013
PromotingPublic/PrivatePartnerships(PPPs)
forthedevelopmentof
naturalcatastropheinsurance
inEurope
RolandNussbaum,CEO,MRN
Promoting PPPs forthedevelopment ofNatCat
insurance inEurope
OUTLINE
• Introductory remarks
• Insurance and NatCat DRM
• PPPs for NatCat risk transfer
Case studies on IKM4DRR initiatives
• Initiated by the insurance associations (MRN)
• Expanded at PPP level (ONRN)
• From stakeholder categories to networks and collective
governance circles, as research « living labs »
• To conclude: Expectations from EU Research
25June 2013|Barcelonnette– Formose–ChangesPostGraduate Course– RNUSSBAUM
2
1.Apractitioner’s perspective…
3
• CEOofMissionRisquesNaturels
www.mrn.asso.fr
• Member of governance bodiesat nationallevel :CMI,ONRN
• Board/StandingCommittee Member ofThematic Associations:
– Associationfrançaisepourlaprévention
descatastrophesnaturelles (Excutive Board)
www.afpcn.org
− Associationfrançaisedegénieparasismique(CAREX)
www.afps.org
• Member ofScienfic Advisory Board of
•
Teaching :
www.fondation‐maif.fr
Agro/Mines/PontsParisTech,
MASTERS2PRO:ENASS,LyonIII,MontpellierIII,ParisXII,UHA,etc
• Member ofSustainable NonLife
Committee
www.insuranceeurope.eu
• ExperttoECDGR&I,WorldBank/IFCGFDRRResults ManagementCouncil
• Enduserrepresentative,Advisor toEUFP7Projects:
CapHaz‐Net,CONHAZ,KNOW‐4‐DRR,SMARTeST,STAR‐FLOOD…
Avery topical subject !
4
MajorNatCat events arecurrently triggering newdevelopments
towards morePPPs forrisk transfer:
‐ Extreme RiverFloods May‐June 2013inCentralEurope
‐
Austria,Czech Republic,Germany,Hungary…
‐ Extreme torrential Floods inSouthofFrance(Agly,Lourdes)
‐ Floods intheUK(2007,2009,2012)– « Statement ofprinciples »endson
June 30th2013,
‐ Floods inAustralia (2010‐2011)
‐ Earthquakes inChile(2011),Japan (2004,2011),New‐Zealand (2011)
‐ CyclonesandTornadoes inUSA(2004,2005…)
Newdevelopments inpublicDRMpolicy (EUlevel)
‐ Greenpaper ontheinsurance ofnatural andmanmadecatastrophes
‐ Strategy forclimate changeadaptation
(action8:innovative insurance products)
1. Insurance and NatCat DRM:
setting the scene (concepts, definitions)
& brief outlook at EU level
1.Insurance andNatCat DRM
1.1.Settingthescene
6
• Insurance industry:
•
•
•
Players &valuechain,
Impactontheeconomy
Products andmarket penetration
• Insurance asarisk transfer market instrument:
•
•
Risk retention andtransfer
Alternativemarket instruments
• Insurance asaneconomic incentive torisk reduction
•
•
•
Informationasymetries:adverseselection,moralhazard
Insurance pricing:premium,deductibles
Productbundling,compulsory extended coverage
• Risk cost mitigationat individual andsocietylevel
•
•
Solidarity andliabitiliy,
Risk sharing
Insurance industry (value chain
chain))
7
Insured(personal/commerciallines,corporate)
Lossadjusters,advisors
Intermédiaries
Agents, Brokers
Lossadjustors
FFSA - GEMA
INSURANCEUNDERTAKINGS
Reinsurancebrokers
REINSURANCEUNDERTAKINGS
Insurance market shares /OECDcountries(1)
8
Market share in OECD ‐ Total / Part de marché dans l'OCDE ‐ Total
Others / Autres
13%
Korea / Corée
3%
Canada
3%
United States / Etats‐Unis
41%
Italy / Italie
4%
France
7%
Germany / Allemagne
9%
Japan / Japon
10%
United Kingdom / Royaume‐Uni
10%
source : OCDE
Insurance premiumpercapita(2)
9
Premiums per capita ‐ Total / Primes par tête ‐ Total (US dollar per inhabitant / Dollar des EU par habitant)
30,000.00
25,000.00
20,000.00
15,000.00
10,000.00
5,000.00
0.00
NB. Les cas du Luxembourg et de l’Irlande ne sont pas significatifs
source : OCDE
Insurance premiumsas%ofGDP(3)
Premiums/GDP ‐ Total / Primes/PIB ‐ Total (As a percentage of GDP / En pourcentage du PIB)
10
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
NB. Les cas du Luxembourg et de l’Irlande ne sont pas significatifs
source : OCDE
Risk ManagementandRisk Transfer
11
Residual risk treatment
12
Risk retention : accepting to take over totally or partially the risk
cost and to assume consequences
Risk transfer : the financial impact is carried by someone else,
though a contractual arrangement
eg. Insurance contract: limits and costs of transfer are specified.
Cost assessment approaches
13
Approaches
A posteriori
per event
Loss adjustment
micro
Meso,
macro
(portfolio,
network)
report
Ex ante
per scenario
Site survey
First estimate
Accounting,
Reserving
modeling
Average costs
statistic
Damagefunctions
Fonctionsd’endommagement
« totalloss control »
at thescale ofeconpmic actor
14
L’iceberg du coût global du risque
représentation schématique du concept de « total loss control »
A
assurances
Visible costs
auto-assurance
S
CP
charges de fonctionnement
Hidden costs
amortissement des
investissements
Qualité
Sécurité
Environnement
coût global du risque : C = A + S + CP
Trend towards integrated DRM costs control
Is it an equilibrated country profile?
15
Crisis
preparedness &
management
Insurances
RISKREDUCTIONCOSTS
Individual,collective
RISKSHARING:
RISKRETENTIONAND
TRANSFERCOSTS
Prevention
R&D
Source:
PLANAT,2007,
Safetyatwhichcost?
Risk sharing,retention andtransfer,along LEP*Curve
(eg.forfloods under NatCat regime)
Without DRR measures at risk basin level
16
With structural DRR measures at risk basin level
*LEPCurve =Loss Exceedance Probability Curve
Costs managementin theInsurance servicecycle
17
segmentation
product& rating
marketing
and design
expost customerrelationship
Accordingtocompanystatutes&
underwritingpolicies
claims
managt and
settlement
Processes
reinsurance
programme
exante customerrelationship”:policy
customerrelationship”:policy
prevention/negociation
recovery
economy:
from liable
third parties
recycled
assets
repair
economy
Solidarity asafunction orrisk factors
18
solidarité
Solidarité=f(segmentationdansmutualisation)
FR, DK
SP, NO, BE,
solidarité de
CH, IT ?
subvention
Assurance de marché
solidarité aléatoire
Segmentationselonnbrede
facteursexplicatifsderisqueutilisés
Risk sharing
19
Risk sharingoccurs when theoveral risk burden is taken
overonthewhole LEPC,resulting ofacombination of
solutions:
‐ Individual /collectiverisk reduction,
‐ Then risk retention/transfer
‐
‐
through insurance solutions
Ifthecountryrisk profilerequires it with respecttolimited
market capacities,through nationalsolidarity :
‐ Publicfund
‐ Stateactingasreinsurer oflastresort.
1.2.Insurance andNatCat DRM‐ Brief outlook at EUlevel
20
‐ Inamarket economy,insurance is theprimary economic
resilience tool
‐ Insurance penetration,particularly NatCat cover forpersonal
lines,remains low inmany EUcountries.
‐ Therefore theneed todevelop insurance solutions:
« tomake roomforinsurance »byimproving both :
•
•
theperceptionbytheindividual ofits needs totransfer partofhis
risks,
theinsurability conditions:countryrisk profile,especially interms
offrequency exposure
‐ EUpolicy drivers:
‐
‐
‐
Art100.2ofECTreaty
EUClimate ChangeAdaptationStrategy (16/04/2013)
GreenPaper onCatastropheexposures andtheir coverage (public
andprivate)inEUMember States(16/04/2013)
Naturalevents insurance aspartofproperty insurance,inEU /France
21
Premium income related to natural events = # 3 bn €/yr:
- 1,5 bn €/yr : NatCat Cover
- 1,5 bn €/yr : Storm, Hailstorm, Weight of snow covers
Essaide« cartographie »desrisquesenvironnementauxselonleurdegréd’assurabilité,
enregarddesgarantiesd’assuranceassociées,enFrance,horsrisquesagricoles
22
« Naturehostile »
Aléas naturels
Tempête
« Naturevictime »
effets
domino
Risques technologiques et atteintes à l’environnement
Feux de forêt
RisquesCatTech
Foudre
Grêle
(loidu21/07/03)
Neige
Assurablilité
Cyclône
Seisme
Volcanisme
• Détériorationsdir/indmesurablesetgraves:
Eaux
MVT
EHNP(EspècesetHabitatsnaturelsprotégés)
Inondation
• ContaminationdesSOLS créantrisqueatteintegraveà
santé
(loi CatNat 07/82)
Garanties
TGN
Resp.environnementale (loidu01/08/08)
CATNAT
• Détériorationsdir/indmesurablesaffectantservices
écologiquesdeEaux,EHNP,solsaubénéficed’unedeces
ressourcesoudupublic Resp. environnement
CatTECH
IRD RI
via ASSURPOL
Insurance and risk reduction incentives
Extreme disasters
Affordable premium
Insurablility
Incentives through insurance:
insurance:
• Premium
• Deductible
• Cover limits
• Exclusions
• Risk reduction requirements
- 23
Flood risk management in France
risk reduction vs risk transfer
Hazard return period (yrs
yrs))
10
50
100
Individual risk reduction
Collective risk reduction
Insurer’s exposure
Advice on Risk Reduction
Interacting with public authorities
- 24
2.PublicPrivate Partnerships (PPPs) forNatCat risk transfer
25
APPPfloodinsurance scheme under discussionintheUK
26
French NatCat regime: an integrated DRM legal scheme
(NatCat 1982 law, revised: 1995, 2003, 2013?)
27
Synthesis scheme of evaluative
approach carried out at MRN
28
Action publique
Incitation
Financement
Insurers
PPP
Public
authorities
Democratic procedures
Insureds / Citizens
(Gérin, 2011)
Interaction frameworks of the approch
Impacts potentiels
Démarche
évaluative
Plans de Prévention des Risques Naturels
3. From stakeholder categories to networks and
collective governance circles, as « living labs »
29
• From stakeholder categories:
•
•
•
•
•
State,localauthorities,
Generalpublic,
NGOs,Media…
Private stakeholders,intheir customer relationships andinstitutionnal
communication/behavior:
Tonetworksandcollectivegovernance circles,as« livinglabs »:
•
•
•
•
Insurance industry asawhole,andits representative bodiesat territorial,national
andEUlevels : MRN,Insurance Europe
NationalDRRplatform :COPRNMand AFPCN
National/territorialcollectivegovernance bodies:
• COPRNM(general DRPpolicy)andCDRNM(strategic landuseplanning)
• CMI (FRMstrategy andresources allocation)andCOMITER
PublicPrivate Partnership :ONRN, asajointagreementState– CCR– MRNfordata
gathering andsharing,publicpolicy evaluation
3.1. Introducing MRN
30
www.mrn.asso.fr
Anassociationdedicated toNatCat risk knowledge andreduction,
inpartnership with publicauthorities,created in2000between:
Synchronoptic perspective the last 30 years:
annual loss records – DRM PPP developments in France and other countries
31
Évolution en France
Évolutions sur d’autres marchés nationaux
IBHS,USA
ICLR,CA
ZURS,DE
HORA,AT
12,000
11,000
FRAT,CZ
SIGRA,IT
10,000
etc
9,000
CATNAT
8,000
TGN
7,000
Source : FFSA-GEMA / 2012
Indemnités versées
(montants actualisés en millions €)
13,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
No separate loss
record available
Années
MRN,auniquesocialinnovation
32
‐ intheUS:
Where building safety research leads to real-world solutions.
‐ inafewEUcountries:
 PPPagreements :

AT(VVOandLebensministerium)

UK(ABI,CMLandEnvironment Agency)
 Projectteams:country(name offloodrisk zoningproject)

AT(HORA),CZ(FRAT),DE(‘ZURSGEO),IT((ANIA))
 Policyadvisors :ABI
Featuring MRN
33
• Activities :

Institutionnal

Studies

Operational General Interest Support Services to Member
Insurance Companies
• Permanent staff members:
engineers, geoscientists, PhD students…
• Collaborative network of hundreds of correspondents :
 insurance companies that are members of FFSA or GEMA
 State and local authorities
 Stakeholders’ and thematic associations
TheMRNnetworkinFrance
34
interacting with nationalandlocalstakeholders





Voluntary representatives
of member insurance companies
Take partto collaborativegovernance bodies
Technical supporttomunicipalities intheir informationduties
Teaching topubliccivilservants
Conferences andpublicdebates
Partnership EPLoire‐ MRN
Asset exposure assessment incooperation with EPLoireteam
35
Insurers contribute toincentivize their professionnal lines customers fora
floodvulnerability diagnosis
TOTAL
22 391; 7%
28 190; 9%
75
77
125 598; 38%
32 914; 10%
78
91
92
93
94
38 929; 12%
95
23 561; 7%
26 608; 8%
28 802; 9%
140 000
120 000
95
100 000
94
93
80 000
92
91
60 000
78
77
40 000
75
20 000
0
19001970
19711975
19761980
19811985
19861990
19911995
19962000
20012005
20062007
Type d'activité principale
90 000
Nombre d'établ issement
80 000
75
70 000
77
60 000
78
50 000
91
40 000
92
93
30 000
94
20 000
95
10 000
0
ACPS
AGRICOLE
INDUSTRIE
Activi té pri ncipale
PUBLIC
3.2.NationalCollectivegovernance bodies:COPRNMandCMI
36
3.2.Regional Collectivegovernance bodies
37
usesoftheFarmer Curve inSocialSciences
38
P.PIGEON,2010,
Collectivegovernance ofrisk prevention measures
Questionsandtools
39
• Howtomonitortheefficiency ofDRRmeasures?
 Risk metrics andrisk reduction performanceevaluation at individual or
collectivelevel
 CBAofarisk reduction project (meso scale,project temporality)
• Howtoallocate limited resources inalimited timeframethrough a
collectivegovernance process?(NationalFloodRisk Management
Strategy)
•
Prioritising risk reduction measures:strategic planningofresources
allocationat national/regional level,
moving ahead step bystep interms ofrisk transfer thresholds
andproviding tocitizens ofacertainrisk profileequity oftreatment
ONRN:governance andorganisation
40
Scope of IKM4DRR at ONRN
41

Hazards

Assets exposure, vulnerability, resilience

Loss records and lessons learnt

Stakeholders and their projects

Risk reduction public procedures and programmes
National Observatory of Natural Risks (ONRN) website
www.onrn.fr
42
Downloadableindicatorsanddata
eg.Map of cumulated flood losses per municipality (from 1995 to 2010)
42
4.Expectationsfrom EUResearch
43
• Risk metrics (monetary andnonmonetary),at different scales,
spatialandtemporal
• Datacollection,sharing,dissemination,uncertainty communication:
past events databases,evaluated under present conditions
• Multirisk conventional approach,tracking uncertainties…
• Clarify possibilities andlimits foruseofFarmer curve (LEPC)
 insocialsciences(eg.geography,psychology,etc),asabridgebetween risk
economy ‐ decision making sciencesandfinance‐ risk transfer options
• Consider newcollectivegovernance bodiesas« livinglabs »
 integration ofscientific knowledge/methods into decision making,
 assessing theefficiency oftheir interactionsat various scales,
 promoting thesocialutilityofcollectivegovernance
• Strategic planningofresource allocationtoDRRmeasures,from
sciencetopolicy making
• Integrated pluridisciplinary andmultisectoral comparativestudies of
countryrisk reduction andtransfer systems :legal,economic,PPP
solutions(investigate their ethical components),etc
ANNEXES
Treaty establishing theEuropean Communities (1)
45
ObjectivesoftheUnion(Article2)
TheUnionshallsetitselfthefollowingobjectives:
— topromoteeconomicandsocialprogress
promoteeconomicandsocialprogress andahighlevelofemployment
andtoachievebalancedandsustainabledevelopment,inparticularthroughthe
creationofanareawithoutinternalfrontiers,throughthestrengtheningof
economicandsocialcohesion andthroughtheestablishmentofeconomicand
monetaryunion,ultimatelyincludingasinglecurrencyinaccordancewiththe
provisionsofthisTreaty,
(…)
45
TreatyestablishingtheEuropeanCommunities (2)
46
Economicandmonetarypolicy (Art.100.2)
WhereaMemberStateisindifficultiesorisseriouslythreatened
withseveredifficultiescausedbynaturaldisasters orexceptional
occurrencesbeyonditscontrol,theCouncil,actingbyaqualifiedmajorityon
aproposalfromtheCommission,maygrant,undercertainconditions,
CommunityfinancialassistancetotheMemberStateconcerned.The
PresidentoftheCouncilshallinformtheEuropeanParliamentofthedecision
taken.
46
Treaty establishing theEuropean Communities (3)
47
Consumerprotection(Art.153)
1. Inordertopromotetheinterestsofconsumersandtoensureahighlevelof
consumerprotection,theCommunityshallcontributetoprotectingthehealth,
safetyandeconomicinterestsofconsumers,aswellastopromotingtheir
righttoinformation,educationandtoorganisethemselvesinorderto
safeguardtheirinterests.
2.
Consumerprotectionrequirementsshallbetakenintoaccountindefiningand
implementingotherCommunitypoliciesandactivities.
3. TheCommunityshallcontributetotheattainmentoftheobjectivesreferredtoin
paragraph1through:
(a)measuresadoptedpursuanttoArticle95inthecontextofthecompletionoftheinternalmarket;
(b)measureswhichsupport,supplementandmonitorthepolicypursuedbytheMemberStates.
4. (…)
5. Measuresadoptedpursuanttoparagraph4shallnotpreventanyMemberStatefrom
maintainingorintroducingmorestringentprotectivemeasures.Suchmeasuresmustbe
compatiblewiththisTreaty.TheCommissionshallbenotifiedofthem.
47
EUPolicies adressing DRManoverview
48
REGIO:EUSolidarity Fund (2002)‐ INTERREG
ENV:Floods directive(2007)
INFSO:INSPIREdirective(2007)
ENERGY:Europeancriticalinfrastructureprotectiondirective(2008)
CLIMA: CCAadaptationstrategygreenpaper(2009)
Whitepaper:Insurancesolutions/Clearinghousemechanism
EUCCAadaptationstrategy(2013)
ECHO‐ citizenprotection:
• Financialinstrumentforcivilprotection(2007)
• DRPStrategy(2009)
DEV:DRRcooperation strategy with third countries(2009)
MARKT:Internal Market andFinancialServices
Solvency IIdirective(2009)
GreenPaper onf NatCat insurance (2013)
RTD:ResearchandInnovation
FrameworkProgrammes(e.g.FP7projects),GMES…
Aboutrisk sharing
49
Along the loss/frequency curve for a given territory,
the complete management of risk burden results from
a combination of solutions involving risk retention
and mitigation at individual and collective level, then
risk transfer to insurance and perhaps, but
ultimately, according to country profile in case of
insurability (private reinsurance market) limitations,
by the means of national/ regional solidarity.
Involment ofinsurance sector (FRCase)into
theinstitutions/tools ofarisk reduction governance cycle
50
NationalRisk Assessment
e.g.PFRA
NationalDRRstrategies
Evaluationofpublic
policy tools
COPRNM,CMI/TRI
ONRN
Prioritizing ofmitigationmeasures
at territoriallevel
Lessons learnt
Experience sharing
ministerial LLMissions,ANRN
CMI/TRI,PGRI,ACB
ProjectdesignandFinancing of
mitigationmeasures at
territorialandindividual level
PAPI,BarnierFund
Useful links
51
•
•
•
•
•
www.mrn.asso.fr www.ccr.fr www.onrn.fr
FédérationFrançaisedesSociétésd’Assurances(FFSA)‐www.ffsa.fr
GroupementdesEntreprisesMutuellesd’Assurance(GEMA)‐www.gema.fr
ComitédesEntreprisesd’Assurances(CEA) ‐ www.ceassur.fr
Autoritédecontrôleprudentiel(ACP)‐
www.banque‐france.fr/acp/index.htm etwww.acam‐france.fr
• InsuranceEurope‐ www.insuranceeurope.eu
• EuropeanInsuranceandOccupationalPensionsAuthority(EIOPA)
https://eiopa.europa.eu/
•
• NationalAssociationofInsuranceCommissioners(NAIC)‐ www.naic.org
• InternationalAssociationofInsuranceSupervisors(IAIS)‐
http://www.iaisweb.org/
• NATURALHAZARDS,UNNATURALDISASTERS‐ TheEconomicsof
EffectivePrevention ‐ http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/nhud‐home
• SpecialReportonManagingtheRisksofExtremeEventsandDisastersto
AdvanceClimateChangeAdaptation(SREX)‐ http://ipcc‐
wg2.gov/SREX/report/

PPP for development of natural catastrophe insurance in Europe

Transcription

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